Search Captions & Ask AI

Why Inaction is an Investor's Best Friend - E58

January 29, 2024 / 30:47

This episode discusses the Minnesota starvation experiment, investment strategies, and the psychological impacts of market fluctuations. Jesse Kramer references Malcolm Gladwell's podcast and the effects of starvation on mental health.

Kramer explains the Minnesota starvation experiment conducted during World War II, where participants were put on a starvation diet to study the effects of malnutrition. He highlights how the men's mental states changed, leading to food obsession and irrational thoughts.

The episode shifts to investment strategies, particularly the importance of having a balanced portfolio. Kramer emphasizes the risks of a 100% stock portfolio and the psychological effects of market downturns on investors.

Kramer uses the example of a fictional investor named Sally to illustrate how risk tolerance can differ in theory versus practice. He discusses the importance of education and portfolio management to prevent panic selling during market volatility.

Finally, Kramer stresses the value of inaction during market downturns and the need for investors to remain calm and avoid impulsive decisions. He concludes with a reminder that long-term investing requires patience and a strong temperament.

TL;DR

Jesse Kramer discusses the Minnesota starvation experiment and its lessons for investing, emphasizing the importance of managing psychological responses to market fluctuations.

Video

00:00:01
welcome to the best interest podcast
00:00:04
where we believe Benjamin Franklin's
00:00:06
advice that an investment in knowledge
00:00:08
pays the best interest both in finances
00:00:11
and in your life every episode teaches
00:00:13
you personal finance and investing in
00:00:16
simple terms now here's your host Jesse
00:00:22
Kramer hello everybody and welcome to
00:00:24
episode 58 of the best interest podcast
00:00:28
my name is Jesse pramer today we're
00:00:30
starting the episode actually by
00:00:32
alluding to a different podcast this one
00:00:34
is by a man named Malcolm Gladwell you
00:00:36
might have heard of him he's a pretty
00:00:37
famous author his podcast is called
00:00:39
revisionist history I was recently
00:00:41
listening to an episode of his podcast
00:00:43
and I learned about something called the
00:00:45
Minnesota starvation experiment Malcolm
00:00:49
Gladwell calls his podcast episode the
00:00:51
department of physical hygiene I'll
00:00:52
include a link in the show notes and yes
00:00:55
it's all about something called the
00:00:56
Minnesota starvation experiment right
00:00:59
around world War II I actually think it
00:01:00
was during World War II there were a
00:01:03
group of young men who for one reason or
00:01:04
another couldn't fight in the war they
00:01:07
wanted to participate in some other way
00:01:09
and a very famous scientist named anel
00:01:12
Keys convinced them to participate in
00:01:14
this experiment where for about 3 months
00:01:18
the men had their diets and exercise
00:01:21
slightly adjusted so that they would hit
00:01:23
some sort of they call it like a
00:01:24
balanced weight so the men who were
00:01:26
maybe a little overweight were
00:01:28
encouraged to lose a few pounds The Men
00:01:30
Who were a little underweight were
00:01:31
encouraged to gain a few pounds until
00:01:33
they kind of hit this median normal
00:01:35
weight for their height and then
00:01:38
commenced a starvation period for 6
00:01:41
months these men were fed what is called
00:01:44
a starvation diet barely enough calories
00:01:47
to survive the goal of the experiment
00:01:49
was for over the six-month period for
00:01:51
the men to lose 25% of their weight so
00:01:55
for someone who's maybe 6 feet tall and
00:01:58
weighs 190 PB the goal of the experiment
00:02:01
was for that man to lose 47 lb and drop
00:02:05
down to a weight of
00:02:08
143 from 190 to 143 in 6 months now the
00:02:13
long-term goal of the study was to help
00:02:15
people all over the world who are
00:02:17
dealing with some sort of starvation to
00:02:20
understand how to prevent starvation in
00:02:22
the first place to understand how to
00:02:24
best cure starvation what nutrients are
00:02:26
most important how the body reacts to a
00:02:29
reg diet again how to best put on weight
00:02:32
what organs are most damaged by
00:02:35
starvation and what organs need to be
00:02:37
carefully looked at when reintroducing
00:02:39
nutrients to the body all that sort of
00:02:41
thing now that experiment probably
00:02:43
couldn't take place today it's just a
00:02:45
bit too gruesome and a bit too painful
00:02:47
to starve someone for 6 months to get
00:02:50
them to the point where the real study
00:02:52
could begin one of the things in the
00:02:55
podcast that most caught my eye and
00:02:57
caught my mind's attention is how the
00:03:00
men in the experiment how their mental
00:03:03
States changed one of the biggest ones
00:03:05
for example many of the men developed
00:03:07
food Obsession during their starvation
00:03:10
period it's all they could think about
00:03:12
they really didn't think about
00:03:13
interpersonal relationships they didn't
00:03:16
care too much for the kind of things
00:03:18
that we occupy our normal days with they
00:03:20
would just think about food during the
00:03:22
experiment the men had to walk in pairs
00:03:24
around the city of Minnesota they had to
00:03:26
walk 22 miles a week as part of the
00:03:28
exercise to help them lose the weight
00:03:30
during the starvation period and they'd
00:03:32
often walk to restaurants or diners and
00:03:35
simply sit there and watch people eat
00:03:38
that was part of their entertainment or
00:03:40
at the very least that's what their
00:03:42
brains wanted them to do was to watch
00:03:44
people eat some of the men started
00:03:46
collecting cookbooks during the
00:03:48
experiment and interestingly some of the
00:03:50
men never stopped collecting cookbooks
00:03:53
they had this food Obsession for the
00:03:56
rest of their lives quick sidebar
00:03:59
listening to Malcolm gladwell's episode
00:04:02
I thought of my dog Sadie who we got as
00:04:05
a starving and nursing mother dog she
00:04:08
was found on the streets of Houston
00:04:10
severely malnourished and she's now a
00:04:13
perfectly healthy dog she is also the
00:04:15
most food motivated dog I've ever met
00:04:18
she has an obsession with food she likes
00:04:21
to watch me eat dinner she you know any
00:04:24
little hint that she might be getting
00:04:26
fed she gets excited for not every dog
00:04:29
does that but a dog who starved on the
00:04:31
streets develops that kind of food
00:04:33
Obsession and similarly as we learned in
00:04:37
this podcast people who are starved
00:04:40
develop that food Obsession too and for
00:04:43
some of them it never leaves towards the
00:04:45
end of the podcast episode one audio
00:04:49
clip in particular really struck a chord
00:04:52
with me it was some testimony given
00:04:54
later in life by one of the studies
00:04:57
participants and and this was from a man
00:04:59
who according to testimony from the many
00:05:02
participants in the study this one man
00:05:04
was someone that the rest of the
00:05:05
participants looked up to they saw him
00:05:08
as as Noble they saw him as righteous he
00:05:10
was well educated he was well put
00:05:12
together they saw him as as a person
00:05:15
worth emulating but I want you to listen
00:05:18
to this man's testimony right now or you
00:05:20
could put it in another way his
00:05:21
confession to how his mindset and how
00:05:24
his brain chemistry changed over the
00:05:27
course of the study I'll tell you a a a
00:05:31
nasty moment I was walking along and I
00:05:34
obviously had a buddy but I don't know
00:05:36
who it
00:05:37
was and um it
00:05:41
was deep into the semi
00:05:44
starvation and
00:05:47
um we were tired when they crossed the
00:05:51
street they didn't have the energy to
00:05:52
take the half step up onto the sidewalk
00:05:55
we were tired uh and and weak and so we
00:05:59
were
00:06:00
standing at a corner waiting for a light
00:06:02
or something and a kid came along on a
00:06:05
bicycle and he was really moving pumping
00:06:08
away and
00:06:09
going I said wonder where he's going and
00:06:12
then I said said to myself I know where
00:06:14
he's going he's going home for
00:06:16
supper and I'm
00:06:19
not and then for a very brief I hope it
00:06:22
was brief
00:06:23
moment I suddenly hated that that
00:06:28
boy and that
00:06:30
I hate at this point to tell you this
00:06:32
because
00:06:34
uh it doesn't speak very well for me um
00:06:38
but I I remembered it with I guess
00:06:43
horor
00:06:45
that that I
00:06:47
could feel such a thing so utterly
00:06:50
irrational but but there it was and uh
00:06:54
you ask an experience that I remember I
00:06:57
sure remember
00:06:58
that is there anything that we haven't
00:07:00
talked about or that I should have asked
00:07:04
you or you'd like to to add that seems
00:07:06
relevant you should have asked me why
00:07:09
I'm missing fingers on my left hand
00:07:12
okay I keep saying to myself that this
00:07:16
was because I
00:07:19
um was so weak and I was chopping wood
00:07:23
and I got
00:07:25
the um axe caught up in the TR
00:07:30
and I didn't have a a rapid enough
00:07:32
reaction time to pull my hand away so I
00:07:36
removed some
00:07:37
fingers he was at the house of two
00:07:40
elderly ladies in Minneapolis who had
00:07:42
befriended some of the subjects leg and
00:07:45
his buddy would go and watch the women
00:07:46
eat then go outside to split wood to
00:07:49
steal themselves against the temptation
00:07:51
to take any of the women's food I
00:07:53
recognize that a human being can go
00:07:57
through a period of mental illness
00:08:00
I think I was mentally ill was I
00:08:03
mentally ill at the time that I removed
00:08:05
the
00:08:07
fingers I don't know I like to think
00:08:10
that I wasn't I like to think it was an
00:08:13
accident I'm not going to sit here and
00:08:16
categorically say that I didn't do it on
00:08:20
purpose severe trauma severe anxiety
00:08:23
severe pain mental pain or physical pain
00:08:27
these can make us think in a rational
00:08:29
ways clearly this guy who's been
00:08:32
starving for months and then sees a
00:08:34
strong young boy riding a bicycle he
00:08:38
thinks irrationally in this moment when
00:08:40
he wants to reach out when he wants to
00:08:41
harm the boy when he feels like he hates
00:08:43
that boy that's an irrational thought
00:08:45
and now he's giving a confession as an
00:08:47
old man he feels guilty for it I don't
00:08:49
think he should because he he realizes
00:08:51
that it was an irrational thought and
00:08:54
it's interesting a little bit scary to
00:08:56
think that you and I and everyone we
00:09:00
know we have that side of our brain we
00:09:02
might not like to admit it but it's
00:09:04
there that you or I or any other human
00:09:07
we know when we're put in dire scenarios
00:09:10
we think differently we act differently
00:09:13
we know what's not rational or at least
00:09:15
in hindsight we know it's not rational
00:09:17
but in the moment it feels like that's
00:09:19
the right thing to do and that right
00:09:22
there is a powerful investing
00:09:28
lesson
00:09:32
so let's switch gears Let's Travel to
00:09:35
Johnsonburg Johnsonburg is a quiet town
00:09:38
in the alagan National Forest that's in
00:09:41
Northwest Pennsylvania here in the USA
00:09:43
now Johnsonburg is best known at least
00:09:46
regionally for their Lumber industry and
00:09:49
the the associated paper mill that's in
00:09:51
the town of Johnsonburg but Johnsonburg
00:09:54
made national news in the spring of 2022
00:09:57
for a very different and somewhat
00:09:59
disturbing reason there was uh a
00:10:02
recently constructed iway bypass in
00:10:05
Johnsonburg and now a bypass is a a
00:10:07
bridge that's built above or around
00:10:10
usually some combination of both built
00:10:12
above or around a village or town you've
00:10:16
probably driven over thousands of
00:10:17
bypasses in your life even if you didn't
00:10:19
know it it's a highway bridge over a
00:10:21
residential area the bypass in
00:10:23
Johnsonburg made national news because
00:10:27
dozens of deer were leaping off of the
00:10:30
bypass not all at the same time but over
00:10:33
the course of days and weeks they were
00:10:35
leaping off the bypass and dropping to
00:10:39
their death onto populated parts of the
00:10:42
town so these deer they walk out onto
00:10:45
the miles long bypass but they aren't
00:10:48
quite smart enough unfortunately to find
00:10:50
their way back off the bypass and
00:10:53
eventually they get spooked perhaps by
00:10:55
traffic or perhaps by some Panic from
00:10:58
their predicament they're stuck out
00:11:00
there and a certain survival mechanism
00:11:03
kicks in the deer they think well I can
00:11:06
either stay trapped on this bypass and
00:11:09
surely die or maybe I can jump and maybe
00:11:14
I'll survive it's easy for us big
00:11:16
brained humans to say well how about a
00:11:18
third option where you just walk off the
00:11:20
bypass but deer aren't equipped to
00:11:23
understand traffic patterns or Bridge
00:11:25
construction or probability theory in
00:11:28
there plight In Their Fear they rely on
00:11:31
Instinct and the only sliver of survival
00:11:34
they think will come from jumping even
00:11:36
though it's clearly a self-destructive
00:11:38
Behavior so when zoomed out of course
00:11:40
it's stupid when zoomed in at least into
00:11:44
the deer's brain it appears like it's
00:11:46
the rational thing to do and so the deer
00:11:49
jump so let's keep that story in mind a
00:11:53
reader on my blog on the best interest
00:11:55
his name was Phil maybe he was from
00:11:57
patani Pennsylvania he wrote in and he
00:11:59
said Jesse I don't understand why you
00:12:02
hold any Bonds in your portfolio to be
00:12:05
honest with you I don't know why anyone
00:12:06
holds bonds so can you please explain
00:12:09
the problem with a 100% stock portfolio
00:12:13
it's a great question Phil you're not
00:12:15
the first to ask you won't be the last
00:12:17
to ask we know that over time stocks
00:12:20
outperform bonds so why hold any bonds
00:12:23
at all and I'll start by saying that
00:12:25
some people do recommend 100% stock port
00:12:29
folios their rationale is pretty simple
00:12:31
a 100% stock portfolio has always
00:12:34
outperformed any portfolio with bonds as
00:12:38
long as you zoom out to a long enough
00:12:39
time span but the key word there is over
00:12:43
the long run as long as you zoom out
00:12:46
long enough all stocks make sense so if
00:12:50
you're young enough to invest your money
00:12:53
and you know pull a rip vanwinkle go to
00:12:55
sleep for 30 years investing in 100%
00:12:58
stocks might be the right allocation for
00:13:01
you some people are fine with a
00:13:03
multi-decade hibernation of kind of
00:13:05
avoiding their account statements and
00:13:07
and not getting spooked by the concept
00:13:09
of losing money or the prospect of
00:13:11
losing money but most people don't live
00:13:13
in that world an important question to
00:13:16
ask in portfolio construction is what is
00:13:19
your risk tolerance or in plain English
00:13:22
how much money can you lose before you
00:13:24
get nauseous we each have a unique
00:13:26
answer to that question and more
00:13:27
importantly our answer in theory might
00:13:30
be different than our answers in
00:13:31
practice so I'm going to say that again
00:13:33
because it's pretty important your risk
00:13:36
tolerance in theory might be different
00:13:38
than your risk tolerance in
00:13:40
practice take Sally for example Sally
00:13:43
believes in theory based on paper based
00:13:46
on what she's heard she thinks she can
00:13:48
stomach a 20% loss to her portfolio
00:13:51
before feeling even a hint of stress she
00:13:54
knows that the market has dropped before
00:13:55
she knows that bare markets happen and
00:13:57
she's aware of the fact fact that a 20%
00:13:59
drop in her portfolio is not only a
00:14:02
probability it's almost an inevitability
00:14:04
over the course of her investing career
00:14:06
20% no worries once 30% down she'd
00:14:11
probably lose some sleep and if she ever
00:14:13
got 40% down off her all-time high she'd
00:14:17
begin to fight that urge to panic and to
00:14:20
sell completely so something near a 7030
00:14:23
portfolio is a good starting point for
00:14:25
sality that's 70% stocks and 30% bonds
00:14:28
the reason why is because we can just
00:14:30
look back at history and say how has a
00:14:32
7030 portfolio performed over time 7030
00:14:35
portfolio's worst full year occurred in
00:14:38
1931 that's during the Great Depression
00:14:40
and it suffered a 31% loss that year the
00:14:43
100% stock portfolio that the question
00:14:46
asker Phil is interested in that
00:14:48
suffered a 43% loss in
00:14:51
1931 and actually up to an 89% Peak to
00:14:55
trough draw down so again 43% that was
00:14:58
over the course of a full year when
00:14:59
there was some time to recover but the
00:15:01
actual High to the low the peak to the
00:15:04
trough of a 100% stock portfolio was 89%
00:15:07
that occurred in
00:15:09
1929 now in order to reduce the
00:15:11
volatility in Sally's portfolio we add
00:15:14
bonds to the stocks or some other
00:15:16
lowrisk asset maybe cash could work too
00:15:19
now that ballasts out Sally's portfolio
00:15:22
to meet her specific risk tolerance it's
00:15:24
still possible that she'll lose money in
00:15:26
a 7030 portfolio but not as much as she
00:15:30
would in a 100% stock portfolio now in
00:15:34
theory that 7030 portfolio for Sally
00:15:36
makes sense but what if she finds
00:15:39
herself in a year like 2022 and at one
00:15:41
point during the year her 7030 portfolio
00:15:44
was down 20% not the 30% that she
00:15:47
thought would make her Panic only 20%
00:15:50
but what if she actually starts
00:15:51
panicking at 20% down you know Warren
00:15:54
Buffett said only when the tide goes out
00:15:57
do you discover who who's been swimming
00:15:59
naked that's one of his most famous
00:16:01
quotes the tide going out of course is a
00:16:03
metaphor for the market dropping and
00:16:06
swimming naked is a metaphor for someone
00:16:08
being unprepared for that eventuality to
00:16:10
happen only in Market downturns does
00:16:13
theory get put to the test can you
00:16:16
stomach what you said you could stomach
00:16:18
can Sally stomach what she thought she
00:16:21
could stomach she might only be down 20%
00:16:23
in a year like 2022 but she could be
00:16:26
freaking out and what do we do how do we
00:16:28
help well if we need to hopefully we can
00:16:32
educate her and then if needed
00:16:34
reallocate her assets we need to learn
00:16:37
about Sally why is she freaking out can
00:16:39
we teach her enough about the long-term
00:16:41
trends of the stock market to help her
00:16:43
feel at ease that's actually a really
00:16:46
good place to start we could remind
00:16:48
Sally that if she zooms out enough
00:16:50
here's what a 7030 portfolio does over
00:16:53
fiveyear time spans over 10 year over 20
00:16:55
year time spans yes this one year is a
00:16:58
bit chaotic and a bit painful but it was
00:17:01
one of the possibilities that we knew
00:17:03
about when we began investing in a 7030
00:17:06
portfolio if you stick with it here's
00:17:09
where you'll end up in the long run we
00:17:10
can educate Sally and oftentimes
00:17:13
education makes investors feel a lot
00:17:15
better about where they stand if the
00:17:18
education doesn't really work if it
00:17:20
doesn't sink in and if Sally says yeah I
00:17:22
hear the words you're saying I still
00:17:24
can't handle it well then we might need
00:17:26
to reallocate Sally's assets maybe 7030
00:17:29
wasn't right for her in the first place
00:17:31
and she needs to be in something more
00:17:33
like a 60/40 or 50/50 portfolio maybe
00:17:35
she needs to diversify even further into
00:17:38
alternative assets or something like
00:17:39
that simply to kind of detangle and
00:17:43
uncorrelated the Assets in her portfolio
00:17:45
even more no matter what we need to
00:17:48
avoid a situation avoid a scenario where
00:17:51
Sally sells completely there's this
00:17:54
quote that lots of investors use they
00:17:56
say the only people who get get hurt on
00:17:58
the roller coaster are those who jump
00:18:02
off now this quote begs the question
00:18:04
just how scary is a roller coaster that
00:18:06
impels someone into jumping off of it
00:18:09
and more importantly though how do we
00:18:11
reduce that scariness how can we prevent
00:18:13
people from jumping off their portfolios
00:18:16
how do we preempt the survival mechanism
00:18:19
that says if I don't sell right now I
00:18:22
might never get another chance this
00:18:24
portfolio is headed to zero and I am
00:18:26
jumping off of the ship before it goes
00:18:28
there
00:18:30
mammal brains are similar to one another
00:18:32
we share the same amydala that controls
00:18:34
our fight or flight response the same
00:18:36
impulse that pushes say a deer to jump
00:18:39
from a bypass it also pushes Sally to
00:18:42
panic sell her
00:18:44
portfolio Sally sells out of fear not
00:18:47
stupidity that fear is a survival
00:18:49
mechanism fear's goal much like Pain's
00:18:52
goal is to motivate us into an action
00:18:54
that remedies the fear if you're scared
00:18:57
well you run or you fight if you touch a
00:19:00
hot stove you reflexively pull your hand
00:19:02
away to intentionally endure such pain
00:19:05
it does seem inhuman requiring some
00:19:08
level of mental fortitude to bypass the
00:19:11
very brain circuitry that makes us alive
00:19:14
in the first place in that context Sally
00:19:17
selling her portfolio or a deer jumping
00:19:20
off of a bypass it seems kind of
00:19:22
rational is it also nearsighted and
00:19:25
myopic of course it is it's easy for us
00:19:27
to see that shortsightedness on the
00:19:29
outside looking in but it doesn't feel
00:19:32
myopic for Sally In the Heat of the
00:19:34
Moment or for those dear they say it's
00:19:37
hard to see the picture when you're
00:19:38
standing inside the frame when your
00:19:40
portfolio is down 20% you are standing
00:19:43
inside that frame it's hard to see the
00:19:45
full picture similarly for the deer they
00:19:48
just see the frame of them stuck on a
00:19:51
bypass Big Friend of the best interest
00:19:54
Howard Marx who's a very famous investor
00:19:56
he has his own appropriate quote quote
00:19:58
on the topic Howard says we have to
00:20:01
practice defensive investing since many
00:20:03
of the outcomes are likely to go against
00:20:05
us it's more important to ensure
00:20:08
survival under negative outcomes than it
00:20:10
is to guarantee maximum returns under
00:20:13
favorable
00:20:14
ones it's more important to ensure
00:20:17
survival under negative outcomes than it
00:20:20
is to guarantee maximum returns under
00:20:22
favorable ones while Marx is referring
00:20:25
to avoiding too much risk we can also
00:20:28
applied his idea to avoiding
00:20:30
self-destructive behaviors for a deer to
00:20:32
avoid self-destruction we'd say don't
00:20:35
walk out on a bypass in the first place
00:20:37
if only they'd listen to us and to Sally
00:20:40
or to any other investor we'd say don't
00:20:42
take on so much risk that you'll Panic
00:20:44
sell when markets aren't Cooperative
00:20:47
history tells us time and again that the
00:20:49
survival Instinct to panic sell is a
00:20:52
self-destructive instinct when zoomed
00:20:54
out Panic selling is stupid of course it
00:20:57
is just look at the market history why
00:20:59
would you ever sell knowing that we'd
00:21:01
get to where we are today but when you
00:21:03
zoom in in that moment when the markets
00:21:05
have dropped 30% off their all-time high
00:21:08
and you don't know what the future holds
00:21:10
selling Panic selling it might feel
00:21:13
rational in that moment we'd all do
00:21:16
better to remind ourselves that humans
00:21:18
are frequently irrational and because
00:21:21
humans are frequently irrational it begs
00:21:23
the question not if Sally will Panic
00:21:26
cell but when Sally will Panic sell and
00:21:30
that brings us back to Phil's original
00:21:32
question that brings us back to bonds or
00:21:34
to any other lower risk asset class the
00:21:37
rationale for holding bonds or for
00:21:39
holding cash for alternatives for
00:21:42
diversification the rationale for these
00:21:44
non-stock asset classes is to prevent
00:21:47
self-destructive Panic selling it's one
00:21:50
thing to admonish investors and say
00:21:52
don't be stupid don't sell your stocks
00:21:53
the market will eventually recover but
00:21:56
good luck looking a panicked investor in
00:21:58
the eye and accusing them of stupidity
00:22:00
for selling your accusation simply won't
00:22:03
work their amydala the most irrational
00:22:06
part of their brain is in control in
00:22:07
that moment and it's begging them to
00:22:10
pull their hand off the stove can you
00:22:12
blame them for listening our best and
00:22:15
only option as investors is to prevent
00:22:17
panic in the first place some pain is
00:22:20
okay but Panic is not they say the true
00:22:24
cost of long-term investing is a
00:22:26
psychological cost because you need to
00:22:29
endure some pain but you need to prevent
00:22:31
that Panic you need to build a portfolio
00:22:34
that meets your goals in the good times
00:22:37
but won't mentally break you in the bad
00:22:40
times I must not
00:22:43
fear fear is the mind
00:22:46
killer fear is The Little Death that
00:22:49
brings total
00:22:51
obliteration I will face my
00:22:53
fear I will permit him to pass over me
00:22:56
and through me
00:22:59
and when it has gone past I will turn
00:23:01
the inner eye to see its
00:23:04
path where the fear has gone there will
00:23:07
be
00:23:08
nothing only I will
00:23:13
remain some of you might recognize that
00:23:16
Morgan Freeman impression as the litany
00:23:19
against fear from the famous book and
00:23:22
now movie
00:23:23
Dune while perhaps a bit dramatic for a
00:23:26
personal finance podcast it is actually
00:23:28
a pretty interesting quote fear is the
00:23:30
mind killer fear really does mess with
00:23:33
our brains and another part of that
00:23:36
quote is once the fear is pass me I will
00:23:39
look at its path and only I will remain
00:23:42
and similarly if you let a market Panic
00:23:45
or a bare Market or a market crash when
00:23:48
those bad times have gone passed you can
00:23:50
turn your eye to your Vanguard your
00:23:51
Fidelity your Schwab accounts and only
00:23:54
you and your portfolio fully intact will
00:24:01
remain changing gears a little bit here
00:24:04
now some of you know that by day I work
00:24:07
for a fiduciary Financial Planning and
00:24:10
wealth management firm in Rochester you
00:24:12
know we we help people we help
00:24:14
individuals we help families plan their
00:24:16
financial Futures and explaining that
00:24:20
previous concept is extremely important
00:24:23
explaining how we design portfolios to
00:24:26
ensure that they can
00:24:28
stuck with for the long run to explain
00:24:31
why we diversify in order to keep risk
00:24:33
lower that's a really important part of
00:24:36
the job and sometimes what that means is
00:24:39
that there are big headlines in the news
00:24:42
that we're worried about things like
00:24:44
debt ceilings or interest rate hikes and
00:24:46
all that kind of stuff and as investment
00:24:50
managers we have to decide whether to
00:24:52
take action or not in the portfolio and
00:24:56
often times because of the work done
00:24:58
beforehand because of the
00:25:00
diversification present the correct
00:25:02
answer the rational answer is we're not
00:25:05
going to do anything right now we
00:25:07
designed the portfolio for this it's
00:25:10
meant to withstand this and it will
00:25:12
withstand this and once we get one or
00:25:15
two or 5 years out from now we're going
00:25:18
to look back on this time and realize
00:25:20
that doing nothing was the right thing
00:25:22
to do now one quote that I I recently
00:25:25
heard and I'm adopting it myself because
00:25:27
I think it's a terrific quote to explain
00:25:30
that though is that inaction is not the
00:25:34
same as
00:25:35
inactivity by choosing not to act from
00:25:39
an investment point of view by choosing
00:25:41
not to make any changes that's not the
00:25:43
same as sitting idly twiddling your
00:25:46
thumbs doing nothing at all you know
00:25:49
humans like all creatures great and
00:25:52
small we're biased towards action it's
00:25:54
so ingrained in Us in fact that
00:25:56
occasionally our brain brains override
00:25:58
conscious thought and and force us to
00:26:00
act we talked about that before with the
00:26:02
stove when you touch a hot stove your
00:26:05
brain instinctively and impulsively
00:26:07
screams out to you act right now remove
00:26:10
yourself from the source of that pain it
00:26:13
doesn't even really it's just
00:26:14
instantaneous it's not even screaming at
00:26:16
you you don't have a choice impulse
00:26:18
takes over and you act now that same
00:26:21
bias that helps us survive run from the
00:26:24
tiger block that projectile that's
00:26:26
heading towards your face
00:26:28
that instinct that bias it is purely
00:26:30
harmful to the long-term investor as an
00:26:34
investor in action in action is your
00:26:37
friend but it's important paradoxically
00:26:40
that we differentiate in action from
00:26:43
inactivity now John Bogel the founder of
00:26:46
Vanguard he famously quipped the the
00:26:48
rule for the investor should be all
00:26:51
think about and in effect the financial
00:26:53
system has built on this and when
00:26:55
something monstrous happens big noisy uh
00:26:59
affects the market greatly on a very
00:27:01
shortterm basis the answer is don't just
00:27:03
stand there do something but the real
00:27:06
answer is don't do something just stand
00:27:08
there or don't get captivated by the
00:27:11
emotions of the moment you heard him
00:27:13
right don't do something don't bias
00:27:16
yourself towards action just stand there
00:27:19
actively choose not to act to understand
00:27:23
why we simply have to consult historical
00:27:25
precedent first why might an investor
00:27:28
want to take drastic action we know that
00:27:30
by now to avoid pain and what's the
00:27:32
cause of that pain well of course it's a
00:27:34
downward bare Market where we see our
00:27:36
account values dropping by 10 or 20 or
00:27:39
30% or more and our brains instinctively
00:27:42
think do something avoid that pain
00:27:44
you're exposing yourself to the painful
00:27:46
stock market so stop that sell your
00:27:49
investments before the pain gets worse
00:27:52
that's the normal human response
00:27:54
identify the cause of the pain and reel
00:27:55
back from it but stock Market history
00:27:58
shows us how harmful that behavior is to
00:28:00
your long-term portfolio performance
00:28:03
selling because of losses it serves to
00:28:05
lock in those losses that's bad and then
00:28:08
you like the rest of us humans won't
00:28:11
have the gumption to buy back into the
00:28:13
market to participate in its eventual
00:28:15
recovery in the eventual
00:28:18
rally action during a bare Market is an
00:28:21
investors's enemy inaction is our friend
00:28:25
but inaction isn't the same as
00:28:27
inactivity it takes conscious effort to
00:28:30
choose in action it takes conscious
00:28:33
effort to rebalance your portfolio
00:28:35
maintaining a predetermined asset
00:28:37
allocation even during turbulent markets
00:28:40
it's boring and simple but you have to
00:28:42
do it you need to actively choose to
00:28:44
keep your cool The Secret of great
00:28:46
investing is temperament it's hard to
00:28:48
stay calm during a bare Market our
00:28:50
brains want the Panic we want to sell to
00:28:53
survive we want to jump off that bridge
00:28:55
like the deer you need to actively
00:28:57
choose not to it's a bit like meditation
00:29:01
you're choosing when you meditate to sit
00:29:03
there and do nothing you are
00:29:06
paradoxically actively choosing in
00:29:08
action the metaphor gets even better
00:29:10
though because as anyone who's ever
00:29:12
meditated will tell you meditation is
00:29:14
hard it's really challenging to quiet
00:29:17
your brain and be still after all we're
00:29:19
all biologically wired for Action we're
00:29:22
wired to think to worry to plan
00:29:25
everything except to sit and be still
00:29:29
investors choosing in action it works
00:29:31
exactly the same way we must quiet that
00:29:34
worried voice in our heads my retirement
00:29:37
account just drop by how much we need to
00:29:39
quiet that voice we need to choose to
00:29:41
wait out the markets storm calm Waters
00:29:44
do await us if only we wait for them day
00:29:48
after day we must choose to wait to stay
00:29:51
calm to be patient don't do something
00:29:54
just sit there but don't confuse use
00:29:57
that in action with
00:30:00
[Music]
00:30:02
inactivity thanks for tuning in to this
00:30:04
episode of the bestest podcast if you
00:30:07
have a question for Jesse to answer on a
00:30:09
future episode send him an email at
00:30:11
Jesse bestin interest. blog again that's
00:30:15
Jesse at bestter interest. blog did you
00:30:18
enjoy the show subscribe rate and review
00:30:20
the podcast wherever you listen this
00:30:23
helps others find the show and invest in
00:30:25
knowledge themselves and we appreciate
00:30:28
it we'll catch you on the next episode
00:30:29
of the best interest
00:30:31
[Music]
00:30:34
podcast the best interest podcast is a
00:30:36
personal podcast meant for education and
00:30:38
entertainment it should not be taken as
00:30:41
Financial advice and is not prescriptive
00:30:43
of your financial
00:30:45
situation

Badges

This episode stands out for the following:

  • 70
    Most heartbreaking
  • 60
    Most shocking
  • 60
    Best concept / idea

Episode Highlights

  • The Cost of Long-Term Investing
    The true cost of long-term investing is psychological; enduring pain while preventing panic is key.
    “The true cost of long-term investing is a psychological cost.”
    @ 22m 24s
    January 29, 2024
  • Choosing Inaction
    Inaction can be a strategic choice; it’s essential to differentiate it from inactivity.
    “Inaction is your friend but it’s important to differentiate inaction from inactivity.”
    @ 26m 37s
    January 29, 2024
  • Meditation and Investing
    Investing requires a calm mind, much like meditation; both demand patience and stillness.
    “Investors choosing inaction works exactly the same way.”
    @ 29m 31s
    January 29, 2024

Episode Quotes

Key Moments

  • Panic Selling21:47
  • Market Recovery21:53
  • Psychological Cost22:24
  • Fear and Investing22:46
  • Inaction vs Inactivity28:25
  • Patience in Investing29:41

Words per Minute Over Time

Vibes Breakdown

Related Episodes

Podcast thumbnail
Tax Loss Harvesting Myths Debunked: What You Need to Know Now | AMA #4 with Jesse - E95
Podcast thumbnail
How To Secure an Edge Against "Sequence of Returns" Risk | Tyler of Portfolio Charts - E87
Podcast thumbnail
"Tax-Free Retirement" - Smart Strategy or Overhyped Gimmick? And Other Listener Questions | AMA #...
Podcast thumbnail
Favorite Moments, Shoutouts, and a Name Change?! …From Our First 100 Episodes - E100