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[Music]
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welcome to the best interest podcast
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hosted by Jesse Kramer where we discuss
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today's best ideas in personal finance
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and investing the best interest is a
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personal podcast meant for entertainment
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purposes only it should not be taken as
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Financial advice and is not prescriptive
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of your financial
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situation here's your host Jesse
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Kramer hey guys what's up this is Jesse
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Kramer with the best interest this is
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episode boy what is this I would say
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this is episode 39 of the best interest
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podcast um right now I'm what I'm doing
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episodes like once every 6 months no boy
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once every seven months the last one was
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in January I should probably address
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that first so some of you have reached
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out to me in the last couple months and
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said some pretty nice things about the
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podcast and that's been encouraging and
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motivating and the thought started going
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through my head that maybe I should get
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back behind the
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microphone and and start recording
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episodes again so my hope my plan the
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ideal is that I record one episode a
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week roughly one episode a week it might
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not be too long I'm not sure 20 minutes
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30 minutes something like that it
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depends on how much good stuff we have
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to talk about and we'll do just a
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general chitchat about personal finance
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and investing some some topics that
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happen to be in the news or that people
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are asking me about uh I also want to
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answer your questions and so there will
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be a couple calls to action today in the
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episode send me your questions email me
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Jesse bestest uh sorry Jesse bestin
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interest. blog uh find me on Twitter or
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Instagram uh comment on my blog itself
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which is bestin interest. blog if you're
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not familiar with that or if you know me
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I mean shoot shoot me an email uh send
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me a Facebook message whatever you want
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to do because I want to answer your
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questions it turns out that the
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questions that you guys have often
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create excellent content because other
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people are asking the same questions
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that you are so you can help yourself
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and you can help others by asking those
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questions and I will do my best to help
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all you guys by answering them here on
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the podcast and then the third thing
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that I'll probably be talking about and
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I know I'll talk about a little bit
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today is I'll use my recent articles
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that I've written as some sort of
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content motivation for for something to
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talk about here so if you don't read my
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blog no worries that's totally fine I
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want to use this podcast as some sort of
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support or some sort of Cory to the blog
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so that even if you're not really really
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a reader you don't want to spend you
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know 10 minutes a week reading the
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Articles totally fine if you'd rather
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listen I will paraphrase the Articles
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here for for lack of a better term I
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probably won't read them word for word
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but I want to talk about the ideas that
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I talk that I write about on the blog I
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want to talk about them here on the
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podcast so with no further Ado let's
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jump
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[Music]
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in so I have written 63 articles this
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year which is kind of hard to believe uh
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being August 23rd but especially earlier
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in the year I was on this writing
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tear right I was writing sometimes two
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or three or four articles in a week and
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I've I've calmed down a little bit more
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recently but there's a lot of good stuff
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to talk about a lot of cool articles to
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kind of bring those topics back up and
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discuss them here on the podcast but the
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one I'm going to start with is uh the
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most recent article I just wrote it
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yesterday I wrote it August
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22nd it's called Uh the Perfectly
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Imperfect investor and again you don't
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have to go read this article you don't
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have to pull it up I mean that's why I'm
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talking about it here today and uh so
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we're going to start talking about this
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thing called Monday morning
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quarterbacking that most of you have
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probably heard you know don't be a
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Monday Morning Quarterback and that
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refers to of course the sport of
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football quarterback and the fact that
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most NFL games most professional
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football games are played on Sunday
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college games are played on Saturday so
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I suppose they're all played over the
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weekend and most Monday mornings find uh
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somewhere in Corporate America Two
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disgruntled guys usually let's face it
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most football fans are guys uh huddled
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in some break room complaining about
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their team's decisions right they're
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second guessing their quarterback on a
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Monday it's they're being Monday morning
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quarterbacks because it's pretty hard to
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be a elite quarterback I suppose you're
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making Split Second decisions while
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Defenders are trying to you know tackle
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you injure you harm you it's a stressful
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uh stressful situation with not much
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time to to choose the right path to
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throw uh it's much less difficult to be
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you know staff accountant level three at
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some uh midlevel company and then just
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complain about the quarterback's passing
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choices uh on a Monday so Monday Morning
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Quarterback it's pretty easy to complain
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after the fact it's very easy and very
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human in fact to criticize any sort of
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choices after the fact this is called
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hindsight
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bias it's uh incredibly common it
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affects people and decisions far beyond
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the realm of football and it's well
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studied uh psychologists and behavioral
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economists have studied hindsight bias
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officially since the 70s I mean people
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have written about it for centuries and
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centuries just because humans noticed
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other humans doing it we notied that
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people frequently change their opinions
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after the fact so that their new opinion
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more close matches the way that reality
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actually unfolded and people also create
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explanations after the fact they
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incorporate the events that actually
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happened to rationalize decisions that
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they previously made so hindsight bias
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basically what it means is before a
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certain event you thought one thing and
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then you were probably wrong but the
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fact that you were wrong and the way
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that the event actually played
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out kind of changes your opinion as time
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goes on and and you end up looking back
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at the event and think to yourself like
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yeah I knew it all along they they call
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a hindsight bias the knew it all along
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bias where even if you were to say keep
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a diary you would realize that you were
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wrong beforehand but your brain kind of
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fools you into thinking that you knew it
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all along after the fact yeah it's a
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frequent problem it's a Troublesome
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problem uh especially in the investing
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world and the more time I spend in the
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investing world the more I see this
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hindsight bias affecting usually
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individual investors people who aren't
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incredibly familiar with investing but
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know enough to be dangerous and I
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recently spoke with an 80-year-old we're
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going to call him Payton to keep with
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the football theme we're going to call
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him Payton and he had a few uh
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interesting complaints about his
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portfolio now his portfolio there going
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to be some numbers in this episode but
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I'm going to try to keep the numbers
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fairly simple uh his portfolio is 60%
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stocks 40% bonds this is a pretty famous
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uh fraction the six 640
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portfolio and Payton's first complaint
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is that because 40% of his portfolio is
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not exposed to the stock market right
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40% is in bonds because it's not exposed
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to the stock market Payton has missed
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out on some serious gains over the past
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decade and to give you an example of
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that uh the stock portion of Payton's
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Investments the stock portion of his
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portfolio that's up about 133% per year
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over the last decade so 60% of his
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portfolio is up 133% if you do that math
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you realize that uh his annual portfolio
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return about 7.8% per year of his
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portfolio return is attributable to
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stocks that's because 60% of 13% is
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7.8 but Payton's Bond allocation that's
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only up about 1.5% per year over the
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past decade so 40% of his portfolio is
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exposed to a 1.5% gain which means that
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his portfolio return from bonds is about
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6% per year so the sum of those two
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numbers leads to Payton's total
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portfolio return which is 88.4% per year
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7.8 from stocks 0.6 from bonds 7.8 plus
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0.6 gets us 8.4% per year and 8.4 that's
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considerably less than the
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133% that a 100% stock allocation would
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have provided Payton and he's he's
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frustrated by that he sees that he could
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have had 133% per year but he only has
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8.4 and that frustrates him and Payton's
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second complaint to me was that his
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portfolio is down about 10% this year
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and he's he's an older gentleman you
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know his portfolio isn't huge he's
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drawing down his assets every year to to
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fund his lifestyle right he's living off
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of his his Investments so drawing down
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your portfolio while it also drops 10%
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it's kind kind of like a double whammy
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so it stinks for him that he's lost
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about 10% this year losing value is
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never fun uh so the way Payton kind of
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feels is that when the market was great
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his portfolio was only good and now that
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the market is down Payton's portfolio is
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down too so he feels like he's getting
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the worst of Both Worlds he
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underperformed when the market was great
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and now that the Market's down well he's
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down too he's not down as much as the
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overall Market this year but you know
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he's he's down and being down stinks so
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Payton's questions to me were were
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simple the first one was why wasn't I
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invested 100% in stocks up until the end
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of 2021 and the second question is why
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didn't I sell to all cash at the
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beginning of 2022 and miss this crash uh
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so Payton in my opinion is suffering
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from some hindsight
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bias I knew it all
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so to help explain Payton's hindsight
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bias uh I want to think about something
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that I call the perfect investor this
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idea maybe they're a real person we'll
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get to that later but this idea called
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the perfect investor so the perfect
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investor they
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allocate uh their portfolio to 100% into
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stocks when the market is at a local
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bottom right they buy low and then they
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allocate to 100% 100% bonds or maybe
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even 100% cash to be more conservative
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when the market is at a local top
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meaning they they sell high right so
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every single time they buy low and they
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sell high and this perfect investor has
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a perfectly rational brain that can
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handle all risk meaning all stocks or
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they can handle zero risk all cash
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depending on market conditions and then
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they really have no in between they're
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either all gas no break or they throw
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their cars their car keys out the window
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and then they don't drive at all it's
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either all or nothing and as I alluded
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to they time the market perfectly every
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time they always know when the market's
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at a bottom and that's when they choose
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to buy they always know when the market
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is at a top and that's when they choose
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to sell so that is the perfect investor
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and I want to compare the perfect
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investor to someone who I call the
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imperfect investor so first the imper
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perfect investor cannot time the market
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they don't know how the market will move
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today tomorrow this month this year they
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don't know what the future holds for the
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market uh but they do have faith that
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over decades the thousands of companies
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comprising the stock market will on
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average grow their revenues and that's
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good for investors you want companies to
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be growing their revenues if you're
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invested in those
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companies well the imperfect investor
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they also know that cash or bonds will
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tend to underperform the stock market
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over time uh there's some fairly
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straightforward reasons for that um
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stocks and bonds tend to be lower risk
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and lower risk means lower reward that's
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simply the risk reward spectrum that
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relationship um but despite the
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underperformance from bonds and cash the
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imperfect investor knows that bonds and
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cash still have a useful purpose now
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namely uh one of those purposes is for
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short-term financial needs where lowrisk
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assets provide Safe Money uh this is a
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key component to that whole concept of
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bucketing your money uh which maybe I'll
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get to in another podcast episode and
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low-risk assets also help investors to
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rebalance their portfolio over time
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provides some uh some ballast in the
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portfolio from which an investor can
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draw on when when it's a good time to be
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buying
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stocks uh and lastly the imperfect
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investor they know well well maybe they
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don't know it but
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the imperfect investor has an irrational
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brain an irrational brain they feel
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anxious about the idea of an all stock
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portfolio uh they fear missing out on
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rewarding opportunities if they hold all
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cash uh when the market is rising they
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they sometimes feel this irrational uh
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euphoria that other Market participants
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feel and when the market is falling
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sometimes they do feel despondent or sad
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so their psychology is not perfectly
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rational so now I want to jump to
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amateur investors when I speak to
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amateurs or non-investors casual
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investors they often believe that the
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perfect investor is not only real but
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can be found at every advisory firm in
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America every Bank in America every
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hedge fund in America they expect that
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their financial professionals the people
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that they're dealing with in their life
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resemble the perfect
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investor so they they think that someone
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is going to put them into stocks when
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the market is about to boom and then
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that perfect that Financial professional
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is going to invest their money into cash
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or bonds when the market is about to
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crash so it's hard it's challenging and
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probably disappointing to explain to
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these novices to these amateur investors
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that nobody is actually that good in
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fact nobody is even close to being that
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good that's one of the key points of
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today's episode nobody is even close to
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being as good as the perfect
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investor the perfect investor doesn't
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exist far from it and and why let's talk
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about why the perfect investor doesn't
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exist so first timing the market is
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famously challenging even for financial
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professionals now but surely you might
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think a professional can get their
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timing close right so so maybe they
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aren't perfect to the day but they
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should be able to see the market drop
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for a few weeks pick up on that Trend
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and then sell before the market drops
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even more right or maybe they see that
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the market Rises for a month and then
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they buy stocks before the market rises
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even further right they pick up on the
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trend early and they react but again
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that's not really how the stock market
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works that's not really how Financial
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professionals tend to work the market
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movement is actually pretty random um
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it's getting and this is getting a bit
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technical uh but the stock market is
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anything but smooth and it often
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exhibits something called longtail
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Behavior now a long tail that's where a
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small number of tra in this case trading
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days account for a large portion of the
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overall Market return so I'll say that
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one more time a small portion of trading
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days account for a large portion of the
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Market's overall return now to give you
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an example we're we're going to look at
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the S&P 500 from 1990 until
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2019 during that time we're going to
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exclude dividends for now during that
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time the S&P 500 returned an annualized
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average of 7.7% per
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year now the best day in each of those
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years accounted for on average a
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3.8% return so again on the year the
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market returned at
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7.7% the single best day accounted for
00:16:33
3.8% okay now the best two days combined
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accounted for a 6.9% return the best
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three days combined accounted for a
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99.5% return in other words if an
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investor was so unlucky as to miss the
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three best days each year it would turn
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their
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7.7% gain into a 1.8% loss so that in a
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nutshell is the problem with timing the
00:17:03
market it is very easy to get your
00:17:05
timing wrong by a week or a month or a
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quarter we've been over that right you
00:17:09
can't get it right to the day but what
00:17:11
if you're wrong by a month well the
00:17:13
problem is if that month happen to
00:17:15
contain the best day or two or three you
00:17:18
can completely hamstring your
00:17:20
portfolio's return and that often isn't
00:17:23
a risk worth
00:17:25
running so remember markets are
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comprised of people right people like
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you and me and in the marketplace those
00:17:33
people vote with their dollars creating
00:17:35
demand for particular assets stocks
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let's say creating demand for particular
00:17:40
stocks and that demand affects those
00:17:43
stocks prices it's hard to vote
00:17:46
correctly every time every day that's
00:17:49
really what you're asking someone to do
00:17:50
if you want them to be the perfect
00:17:52
investor you're asking them to vote
00:17:54
right on every stock that they buy or
00:17:56
sell every day
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and as the simple example that we just
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talked about shows getting those votes
00:18:03
wrong a few days a year can be punishing
00:18:06
the perfect investor doesn't exist it's
00:18:08
too hard for real humans to be that
00:18:11
perfect but then we have to ask an
00:18:14
important question if the perfect
00:18:15
investor doesn't exist then who are the
00:18:18
best investors or at least who are the
00:18:19
smartest investors how do you be a smart
00:18:23
investor how can you be a smart investor
00:18:26
now ironically the best investors tend
00:18:28
to be versions of the imperfect investor
00:18:32
that that person we were talking about
00:18:33
before who is imperfect their best skill
00:18:37
by far is self-awareness so I'll say
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that again the best skill the best
00:18:42
investors tend to be imperfect and one
00:18:45
of their best skills tends to be
00:18:47
self-awareness now for example the best
00:18:50
investors often eliminate the desire to
00:18:52
time the market because they know that
00:18:54
they can't do it they don't worry about
00:18:57
buying or selling on a a daily basis
00:18:59
instead they tend to buy and hold for
00:19:01
the long run and only when they come to
00:19:04
a point in life where they need to start
00:19:05
selling in order to live off those
00:19:07
assets which for most people happens in
00:19:09
retirement that's when they stop buying
00:19:11
and holding and they start selling so
00:19:14
again they're self-aware that they can't
00:19:17
time the market so they choose not to
00:19:19
time the market pretty easy uh these the
00:19:22
best investors they tend to pick an
00:19:24
asset allocation by understanding two
00:19:26
criteria their need for investment
00:19:29
return and their risk appetite they
00:19:33
ignore the vicissitudes of the market
00:19:35
and that's a fancy way of saying they
00:19:37
ignore whether the Market's going up or
00:19:38
down the market the recent market
00:19:41
performance doesn't change what their
00:19:43
ideal asset allocation should be only
00:19:46
their personal need for return and their
00:19:49
personal risk appetite affect what their
00:19:51
asset allocation should
00:19:53
be the the best investors accept that
00:19:57
their portfolio will never be perfect
00:19:59
right when the market Rises they know
00:20:01
that part of their portfolio likely
00:20:04
won't be exposed to the good times it's
00:20:07
a bummer it goes back to Payton right
00:20:09
Payton holds a 60% stock 40% Bond
00:20:12
portfolio his portfolio isn't perfect
00:20:15
right the perfect portfolio over the
00:20:17
last 10 years would have been 100%
00:20:19
stocks but also when the market Falls
00:20:22
the best investors know that part of
00:20:24
their portfolio will be exposed to the
00:20:27
Carnage and and that hurts um it's
00:20:30
better than the alternative though
00:20:31
because the alternative the perfect
00:20:33
investor doesn't really exist and the
00:20:36
harder you try to be the perfect
00:20:37
investor the more likely you are to
00:20:39
hamstring your
00:20:40
portfolio so the imperfect investor they
00:20:44
are self-aware enough to know that their
00:20:47
portfolio is imperfect during the great
00:20:49
times they know that their portfolio
00:20:51
might only be good not great and during
00:20:55
the worst times they know that their
00:20:56
portfolio might be affected too and
00:20:58
they're okay with
00:21:01
that they also they don't make perfect
00:21:04
the enemy of good you might have heard
00:21:05
that before don't make perfect the enemy
00:21:07
of good and I love this quote from
00:21:09
famous investor Bill Bernstein who said
00:21:12
the purpose of investing is not simply
00:21:14
to optimize returns and make yourself
00:21:16
rich the purpose is not to die poor so
00:21:21
again the purpose of investing you
00:21:23
shouldn't have dreams of becoming a
00:21:25
billionaire right that's not the purpose
00:21:26
of investing but if your dream is to
00:21:29
live out your retirement in reasonable
00:21:32
Comfort right living a perfectly normal
00:21:35
lifestyle that can be a reasonable dream
00:21:37
so you don't have to try to maximize
00:21:39
your returns to become a billionaire all
00:21:41
you have to do is minimize the
00:21:43
probability that you die
00:21:46
poor and lastly these ideal investors
00:21:49
they they don't fall victim to what I
00:21:51
call results oriented thinking and
00:21:54
results oriented thinking is another
00:21:55
name for Monday morning quarterbacking
00:21:57
or the hindsight bias that we talked
00:21:59
about earlier they know that their
00:22:01
portfolio was designed originally with a
00:22:04
specific purpose now whether the market
00:22:06
has recently gone up or down the
00:22:09
original purpose remains their their
00:22:11
guidepost it remains their Compass they
00:22:13
don't let recent Market affect whether
00:22:16
they think their portfolio is good or
00:22:17
bad because the portfolio was good and
00:22:21
is good based on their original
00:22:24
purpose so those best investors they
00:22:27
would look at today's circumstances what
00:22:29
we've been talking about and they would
00:22:30
say well based on Payton's goals and his
00:22:33
risk tolerance and his timeline how do
00:22:35
we maximize his probability of hitting
00:22:38
his goals and minimize his probability
00:22:41
of financial failure now maybe the
00:22:44
answer is a 6040 portfolio like the one
00:22:47
pton is already invested in uh and if
00:22:50
the market does go up next week Payton
00:22:53
might ask why was I in 6040 why wasn't I
00:22:56
in 100% stocks and if the market goes
00:22:58
down he'll ask why do I own any stocks
00:23:01
why am I suffering this loss again he's
00:23:04
Monday morning quarterbacking he's
00:23:06
suffering hindsight bias he's asking the
00:23:08
wrong questions because the simple truth
00:23:10
is that the 60/40 portfolio maximized
00:23:13
the probability that Payton would hit
00:23:15
his goals and it minimized his
00:23:18
probability of financial failure we made
00:23:20
the best decision based on Payton
00:23:23
circumstances at the time that we made
00:23:25
the decision that's all we can ask for
00:23:27
the future changes in the market it
00:23:29
neither confirms nor denies that we were
00:23:31
right now there's this great great quote
00:23:34
from Annie Duke famous poker player and
00:23:36
now she's an author and Annie said two
00:23:39
things determine how your life will turn
00:23:41
out luck and the quality of your
00:23:44
decisions okay guys we can't control
00:23:47
luck all we can control is the quality
00:23:50
of our decisions and when we build say
00:23:53
Payton's portfolio that's a decision
00:23:56
that we control the quality of and our
00:23:58
role is to make the best decision
00:23:59
possible whether the market goes up or
00:24:01
down in the future that's partly luck
00:24:04
and we can't control that so the more
00:24:07
you accept your investing
00:24:09
imperfection ironically the closer to
00:24:12
perfect you'll be be
00:24:15
[Music]
00:24:17
perfect now it's just too
00:24:20
late and we can't go back I'm sorry I
00:24:25
can't be per
00:24:28
per okay guys thank you again for tuning
00:24:31
in again this is Jesse Kramer with the
00:24:33
best interest if you haven't yet check
00:24:35
out the blog bestin interest. blog and
00:24:39
uh as a reminder send me your questions
00:24:40
I would love to answer your questions
00:24:42
here in fact if you want to send an
00:24:43
audio file I can probably find a way to
00:24:45
sneak the actual audio file into the
00:24:48
podcast but if not just write in send me
00:24:50
an email Jesse at best interest. blog or
00:24:53
DM me on Twitter find me on some other
00:24:55
social media that is all good and uh
00:24:57
thank you you again for listening to the
00:24:59
best interest
00:25:02
[Music]
00:25:08
podcast