Search Captions & Ask AI

FTX Collapse, Lessons From My Honeymoon, and Why I Quit Social Media - E44

January 29, 2024 / 41:03

This episode covers the FTX cryptocurrency exchange collapse, personal finance lessons from a honeymoon travel mishap, and Jesse's decision to quit social media.

Jesse Kramer discusses the recent bankruptcy of FTX, explaining how it acted as both an exchange and custodian for client assets. He highlights the unethical practices that led to the loss of billions of dollars, emphasizing the importance of fiduciary responsibility in finance.

In a personal story, Jesse shares lessons learned from a travel delay during his honeymoon, including the importance of controlling decisions, building margin, and maintaining composure during unforeseen circumstances.

He also reflects on the addictive nature of social media and its impact on time management and mental health. Jesse outlines his reasons for quitting social media, emphasizing the desire to reclaim time and avoid the negative effects of online engagement.

The episode concludes with a reminder that investing requires careful decision-making and a balanced perspective on risk and reward.

TL;DR

FTX's collapse highlights ethical failures in finance; Jesse shares personal finance lessons from travel mishaps and reasons for quitting social media.

Video

00:00:01
welcome to the best interest podcast
00:00:04
where we believe Benjamin Franklin's
00:00:06
advice that an investment in knowledge
00:00:08
pays the best interest both in finances
00:00:11
and in your life every episode teaches
00:00:13
you personal finance and investing in
00:00:16
simple terms now here's your host Jesse
00:00:20
[Music]
00:00:22
Kramer hello and welcome to episode 44
00:00:25
of the best interest podcast my name is
00:00:28
Jesse Kramer got a good one for you
00:00:30
today we're going to talk a little bit
00:00:32
about FTX if you're not familiar with
00:00:34
what that is I'm sure many of you are by
00:00:36
now but I'm going to give my own little
00:00:37
Spin and then I'll share some updates
00:00:40
from a couple recent articles that I
00:00:42
wrote first okay a lot of ink has been
00:00:45
spilled and a lot of words have been
00:00:47
spoken about FTX I'm sure many of you
00:00:50
have seen headlines you know something
00:00:52
bad is happening but maybe you want to
00:00:54
hear what happened in simple terms so a
00:00:58
quick what happened right f TX is a
00:01:00
cryptocurrency exchange recently went
00:01:03
bankrupt very very suddenly it's all
00:01:06
over the news but to start my
00:01:08
description of it we're going to start
00:01:09
talking about custodians who custodians
00:01:11
are you might have heard of a custodian
00:01:13
before someone like Vanguard or Fidelity
00:01:16
or maybe we could even talk about
00:01:17
something like your bank these are
00:01:19
places that have a duty to be
00:01:21
responsible with your money now
00:01:23
depending on the institution that Duty
00:01:25
can look different it might mean that
00:01:28
they can't use your money to trade
00:01:29
stocks without your permission it might
00:01:32
mean that they have to keep a certain
00:01:33
percentage of your money in a safe Vault
00:01:36
with the remainder of your money being
00:01:38
covered by some sort of federal
00:01:40
insurance but either way a custodian a
00:01:42
bank these organizations they have a
00:01:44
responsibility to you as their clients
00:01:47
to keep your money safe makes sense
00:01:49
right so now let's go to FTX a crypto
00:01:52
exchange similar to a Stock Exchange in
00:01:55
a way an exchange is a place where
00:01:57
buyers and sellers can trade
00:02:00
now many of the buyers and sellers with
00:02:04
FTX they kept their assets on the FTX
00:02:08
platform So Not only was FTX acting as
00:02:11
an exchange it was also acting as some
00:02:14
sort of custodian now that's very
00:02:16
similar to how things might work on say
00:02:19
Fidelity Schwab Vanguard now I use
00:02:21
Fidelity as my custodian but that's also
00:02:24
where I'm able to buy or sell my assets
00:02:27
right it's it's one and the same to me
00:02:29
it's both a custodian and an exchange
00:02:32
but without their clients permission FTX
00:02:36
used traded moved lended client money in
00:02:40
unprotected ways so when those trades
00:02:43
performed poorly I know it wasn't ftxs
00:02:46
intention but when the trades did
00:02:48
perform poorly when the asset value
00:02:51
dropped or basically when some of the
00:02:53
money that they lended out lost value in
00:02:55
bad trades that was clients money in
00:02:58
fact it was about two billion dollars
00:03:00
worth of clients money and that client
00:03:03
money was risked and lost without client
00:03:07
permission so this is about as bad of a
00:03:09
crime as can occur in the financial
00:03:12
system some of you might know this I
00:03:13
work for a fiduciary wealth management
00:03:16
firm here in Rochester New York and that
00:03:18
word fiduciary it means I have a legal
00:03:20
and ethical obligation to work in my
00:03:23
clients best interests these acts by FTX
00:03:27
over the past few weeks months years
00:03:29
however long was going on that's the
00:03:31
polar opposite of what a fiduciary
00:03:33
should do it's really it's really really
00:03:36
bad guys so this problem it might have
00:03:40
stayed a secret forever with FTX we
00:03:42
might not know about it except except
00:03:46
that much of cryptocurrency maybe even
00:03:49
all of cryptocurrency but at the very
00:03:51
least much of it is built upon a house
00:03:53
of cards and so what do I mean by that
00:03:56
to explain that FTX they had their own
00:03:59
crypto token that they created they
00:04:02
created out of thin air they called it
00:04:05
ftt okay so FTX is the firm their token
00:04:09
is
00:04:09
ftt so why did ftt have any value at all
00:04:14
in the first place well there's a simple
00:04:16
reason it's because FTX said that they
00:04:20
would pay a certain amount of actual US
00:04:23
dollars in exchange for ftt tokens FTX
00:04:27
created the value of Ft out of thin air
00:04:31
really what happened was FTX created
00:04:33
confidence in ftt so remember that word
00:04:37
confidence FTX made it so that investors
00:04:40
really could exchange their dollars for
00:04:43
ftt and then later exchange ftt back
00:04:47
into Dollars okay that was confidence in
00:04:50
ftt hey it's actually worth something I
00:04:52
believe it's worth something because FTX
00:04:55
will actually pay me for it that's the
00:04:57
confidence that FTX created
00:05:00
so let's go to early November of this
00:05:03
year
00:05:04
2022 some crypto experts I believe it
00:05:07
was at coindesk which was a news
00:05:10
organization that's dedicated to crypto
00:05:13
they pointed out that a lot of FTX and
00:05:16
its sister firm which is called Alam
00:05:18
research that a lot of FTX and alam's
00:05:22
assets or their balance sheet now this
00:05:24
is from a company point of view their
00:05:26
company assets were in Ft
00:05:30
tokens and that presents a small problem
00:05:33
because if I say that I'm holding $10
00:05:35
million worth of client assets and I
00:05:38
have 10 billion US in the bank then
00:05:42
everyone's going to be cool and calm and
00:05:43
collected they're going to be confident
00:05:45
that I can cover all of my client
00:05:48
obligations right I have $10 billion
00:05:51
sitting there in the bank which is
00:05:53
enough to cover everything I owe to all
00:05:56
my clients just in case for some reason
00:05:59
they decide to all request their money
00:06:01
back at the same time confidence is
00:06:03
maintained in that scenario but what if
00:06:06
instead of holding billion
00:06:09
US I'm holding $10 billion worth of ftt
00:06:15
in the bank well some people might get
00:06:17
worried about that because the question
00:06:19
they would ask is can I actually convert
00:06:22
those ft tokens into US dollars here I
00:06:26
am speaking about the situation I'm I'm
00:06:28
acting as the custodian in this case
00:06:31
what if I am FTX and what if I am the
00:06:34
organization who gave ftt tokens any
00:06:38
semblance of value in the first place
00:06:41
it's pretty easy to see that there might
00:06:42
be some weird crack in the system right
00:06:44
so this company FTX they're the ones who
00:06:47
say ftt has any value and once they said
00:06:51
that ftt has value now they're saying
00:06:53
that they have $10 billion worth of it
00:06:56
listen just because I say that
00:06:58
something's worth 10 billion billion do
00:07:00
doesn't mean that it actually is worth1
00:07:03
billion right that confidence is shaken
00:07:06
and so cracks formed in the confidence
00:07:09
of ftt and rightfully so and when those
00:07:12
initial cracks form a few people maybe
00:07:15
the most worried of people they sell
00:07:17
their ftt they're like something's wrong
00:07:19
here I Smell Smoke I'm out and what
00:07:22
happens when selling pressure what does
00:07:24
selling pressure do to a price the
00:07:28
answer is it goes down
00:07:29
selling pressure pushes a price down
00:07:33
when the price drops the cracks feel
00:07:35
Justified so the cracks grow bigger more
00:07:38
people sell and the price drops even
00:07:40
further suddenly what was $10 billion
00:07:43
worth of ftt is now only worth 5 billion
00:07:47
and then 2 billion and then zero so at
00:07:49
that point FTX no longer had the assets
00:07:52
to repay their customers and clients
00:07:55
because too many of their assets were
00:07:57
held in crypto tokens rather than in
00:08:00
actual US Dollars too many of their
00:08:02
assets were used in trades without their
00:08:04
client permission too many of their
00:08:06
assets were lent out to other places
00:08:08
like the sister firm Alam and Alam lost
00:08:12
the Assets in bad traits that's what
00:08:14
happened to FTX so now the scary
00:08:18
question or one of the scary questions
00:08:20
there are many scary questions involved
00:08:22
probably the biggest one is how such I'm
00:08:26
not sure I can call it fraudulent
00:08:28
Behavior but just
00:08:30
just wrong Behavior right the idea of
00:08:33
gambling and betting trading lending
00:08:36
client assets without their permission I
00:08:39
mean maybe it is fraud maybe I need to
00:08:40
know exactly what the definition of
00:08:42
Fraud is but either way it's just
00:08:43
immoral unethical and obviously has lost
00:08:46
clients billions of dollars that's
00:08:48
probably the worst behavior or the
00:08:49
scariest part of this but there is
00:08:51
another scary question at least for
00:08:53
crypto
00:08:54
maximalists and the question is why
00:08:57
won't similar problems occur across the
00:09:00
entire cryptocurrency space the root of
00:09:03
this problem was hey you say ftt is
00:09:07
worth money but what if it's not worth
00:09:09
any money and then the confidence in ftt
00:09:12
eroded to zero can't the same question
00:09:15
be asked for all crypto that's what's on
00:09:19
my mind and that's what has me curious
00:09:21
thinking concerned for crypto people
00:09:24
some of you especially the more astute
00:09:26
or dedicated listeners and readers might
00:09:28
say like well hey Jesse don't you own a
00:09:30
little bit of cryptocurrency and the
00:09:32
answer is I do right about 1% of my
00:09:35
portfolios in Bitcoin and about 1% of my
00:09:38
portfolio is in ethereum those two
00:09:41
assets could very well go to zero but
00:09:44
the reason the very intentional reason
00:09:47
why those Holdings are such small
00:09:49
percentages in my portfolio is because
00:09:52
when I bought them I had a feeling that
00:09:54
maybe maybe these things could take over
00:09:57
the world and my 1% or 2% at the time
00:10:00
will grow to 20% of my portfolio 10x my
00:10:04
money but it might go to zero and if
00:10:07
something does go to zero then I want it
00:10:09
to be a very very small portion of my
00:10:12
portfolio and throughout these past
00:10:14
couple years I'm fully willing to admit
00:10:16
that my optimism and pessimism over
00:10:20
cryptocurrency has flip-flopped I've
00:10:22
never felt like a dedicated maximalist
00:10:26
I've also never felt like a complete
00:10:28
hater I will say that my optimism or
00:10:32
pessimism it's not constant it
00:10:34
definitely es and flows and it's
00:10:36
definitely affected by what's going on
00:10:38
in the marketplace which is just a
00:10:40
terrific investing lesson in and of
00:10:42
itself right the idea that what you see
00:10:45
in the market can affect how you feel it
00:10:48
shouldn't right we we should maintain a
00:10:51
steady rational view over all our
00:10:53
investments every day we we don't buy
00:10:55
certain things we shouldn't buy certain
00:10:57
things just because of whether the price
00:10:59
is up or down and yet we do it's hard to
00:11:03
combat that feeling that's a feeling I
00:11:05
have for
00:11:06
cryptocurrency okay well there's some
00:11:08
lessons we can learn from this and and
00:11:10
one of the big lessons is that stories
00:11:13
can seduce us so Sam bankman freed or
00:11:16
SBF right he was the CEO of FTX he's
00:11:20
this 30-year-old guy he's kind of had
00:11:23
this fun quirky story he's a super nerd
00:11:26
and tons of ostensibly smart people were
00:11:29
seduced by sf's story right because if
00:11:33
there's anybody who's supposed to fit
00:11:35
the mold of a super nerd who's going to
00:11:38
make billions of dollars and change the
00:11:40
world it's someone who looks talks acts
00:11:44
dresses like this guy Sam bankman freed
00:11:47
this year 2022 some of the biggest
00:11:49
investment firms in the world valued FTX
00:11:53
at $32
00:11:55
billion and invested their money at that
00:11:58
valuation that was this year that was
00:12:00
earlier this year and now the firm is
00:12:02
worth zero they were seduced by the
00:12:05
story so that's a really important
00:12:07
lesson to remember you know when you
00:12:08
invest in a brick company you are not
00:12:11
going to be seduced by the story of
00:12:14
bricks you'll be seduced by the revenues
00:12:17
and the profits and the assets of the
00:12:19
company but not by the story of bricks
00:12:22
but when you invest in futuristic
00:12:24
technology you're investing in a story
00:12:27
about that future
00:12:29
profits well there aren't any profits
00:12:32
yet right the profits of a futuristic
00:12:34
company are going to come some number of
00:12:36
years down the line they're going to say
00:12:38
to you you know just wait a decade until
00:12:40
we're running everything on Earth and
00:12:42
then you'll get your profits it's a
00:12:44
great story but it's also easy to lie
00:12:48
bend the truth be seduced within these
00:12:50
stories and that's what happened here
00:12:53
and another important lesson is just
00:12:55
that we have to be careful with our
00:12:56
words and specifically here I'm not
00:12:59
thinking about SBF I mean obviously he
00:13:02
should have been more careful with his
00:13:03
words I'm thinking about these celebrity
00:13:05
endorsers who now I mean they've
00:13:07
tarnished their reputations to some
00:13:09
extent people like Tom Brady Steph Curry
00:13:12
Kevin o Larry David Jazelle bunin
00:13:16
Shaquille O'Neal they were encouraging
00:13:19
people through celebrity endorsement to
00:13:21
invest in
00:13:22
FTX all of those Investments are now
00:13:24
worth zero many clients lost all their
00:13:27
money in FTX
00:13:29
it's almost like these celebrities were
00:13:31
endorsing rat poison they didn't know it
00:13:33
at the time right it's not like they
00:13:35
were intentionally endorsing rat poison
00:13:37
I have a feeling that none of these
00:13:39
celebrities were intentionally steering
00:13:41
people towards frauds but obviously they
00:13:44
were endorsing a product that they
00:13:46
didn't fully understand not many people
00:13:49
did fully understand the fact that FTX
00:13:51
had this future it's not like endorsing
00:13:53
a brick company when you endorse a brick
00:13:55
company you can feel pretty good that
00:13:57
bricks are going to do their thing thing
00:13:59
when you endorse futuristic technology
00:14:02
like FTX who knows what'll
00:14:06
[Music]
00:14:11
happen okay Switching gears now
00:14:14
Switching gears we are going to do the
00:14:15
usual thing where I'm going to take a
00:14:18
couple articles that I've written
00:14:20
recently on the best interest blog and
00:14:23
talk about them because I know some of
00:14:25
you would rather hear you'd rather
00:14:27
listen than read I get it I get it it's
00:14:30
easier to listen to a podcast than it is
00:14:32
to sit down and distract your eyes with
00:14:35
an article so this first one it's called
00:14:37
six investing lessons from our
00:14:40
honeymoon's terrible start yes this is a
00:14:42
true story we did have a terrible start
00:14:44
to our honeymoon combination of bad luck
00:14:47
and some human incompetence it torpedoed
00:14:50
our first travel day but naturally I
00:14:53
took it as an investing lesson so our
00:14:55
itinerary was Rochester to Boston to
00:14:59
Tokyo to Hanoi Vietnam then after a few
00:15:02
days in Hanoi we'd go onward to changai
00:15:05
Bangkok and other parts of Thailand but
00:15:07
things went poorly from the start so
00:15:09
first our plane in Rochester had a
00:15:11
mechanical issue there was like a
00:15:12
90-minute delay while they tried to fix
00:15:14
it they couldn't fix it so then a
00:15:16
replacement plane got called up from
00:15:18
Philadelphia but it ran late and that
00:15:20
accounted for another like 60 Minutes of
00:15:22
delay and then once we were on board the
00:15:24
replacement this is probably the most
00:15:25
frustrating part we just sat there on
00:15:27
the tarmac and I'm still not sure why
00:15:30
but we were probably in the plane on the
00:15:32
ground for 45 minutes maybe an hour you
00:15:36
know normally you're sitting there in
00:15:37
the plane for like 15 minutes while they
00:15:39
taxi and give the announcements maybe 30
00:15:41
minutes we were there for at least an
00:15:43
hour and the entire time the ground crew
00:15:46
the staff they assured us that our
00:15:49
connection in Boston was safe they said
00:15:51
we're watching carefully you have plenty
00:15:53
of time we've got an eye on it don't
00:15:55
worry we'll make up time in the air but
00:15:58
Kelly and I were nervous because we're
00:16:00
looking at the clocks and the clocks
00:16:02
don't lie and so as our connecting
00:16:05
flight to Japan pushed back from its
00:16:07
Boston gate our inbound flight from
00:16:09
Rochester was descending through
00:16:11
Boston's clouds we had a three-hour
00:16:14
schedule layover in Boston but that time
00:16:16
all got consumed in Rochester before
00:16:19
ever taking off and we missed our
00:16:20
connection so Boston to Tokyo it's a
00:16:23
once per day 14-hour flight and we had
00:16:26
no recourse we had no options but to
00:16:28
wait 24 hours for the next day's flight
00:16:32
we actually got lucky we learned we got
00:16:34
lucky to even get seats on that second
00:16:37
flight it was already full but they
00:16:39
always keep four seats in reserve
00:16:41
specifically for mothers with infants so
00:16:44
that they could put a little bassinet in
00:16:46
front of them and we got two of those
00:16:48
seats so our carefully constructed
00:16:50
honeymoon plans I mean listen they were
00:16:52
far from ruined but they were definitely
00:16:54
shaken up we lost the first full day in
00:16:57
Vietnam we we had to cancel our trip to
00:16:59
a place called nin bin which is a
00:17:02
beautiful area of Vietnam we were
00:17:03
looking forward to but you investors can
00:17:06
learn some valuable lessons from our
00:17:08
frustrations so the first lesson some
00:17:10
things are out of your control I've
00:17:13
quoted Annie Duke before here on the
00:17:15
best interest and her quote that I
00:17:17
really love is two things determine how
00:17:20
your life will turn out luck and the
00:17:23
quality of your
00:17:25
decisions okay we didn't choose to have
00:17:27
our plane break down right that wasn't a
00:17:29
choice that wasn't a quality of our
00:17:31
decision we had no say in the
00:17:33
replacement plan's tardiness really
00:17:35
that's just bad luck and bad luck
00:17:37
happens so similarly we never choose to
00:17:40
watch our portfolios drop in value
00:17:43
completely out of our control all we can
00:17:46
control are our decisions like what
00:17:49
asset allocation to invest with ideally
00:17:52
we have an asset allocation that
00:17:54
captures enough upside reward to achieve
00:17:56
our financial goals but with the low
00:17:58
enough risk profile to stomach the
00:18:00
inevitable bad luck of temporary
00:18:03
losses lesson number two build in margin
00:18:07
but sometimes margin fails so because
00:18:10
bad luck happens guys it's imperative to
00:18:12
build margin into our systems so Kelly
00:18:16
and I we had a three-hour layover in
00:18:18
Boston built into our itinerary that
00:18:20
seems like more than enough margin right
00:18:23
well apparently not because well because
00:18:25
we missed our flight personally I don't
00:18:28
think the lesson here is that we should
00:18:30
have built more margin in 3 hours should
00:18:33
have been fine and I think 95% of the
00:18:36
time we would have wasted that margin
00:18:38
really by just sitting waiting idly in
00:18:41
the Boston airport just like most of the
00:18:43
time you actually waste your insurance
00:18:46
premiums by never using the insurance
00:18:48
itself so instead I think the lesson is
00:18:52
there's always a scenario that could
00:18:54
possibly test the limits of your margin
00:18:56
right margin's a good thing but there's
00:18:58
always a scenario that might test the
00:19:00
limits of your margin so the question
00:19:03
for you for me for all of us to ponder
00:19:06
is how do we balance the wasted margin
00:19:09
against the possibility for disaster
00:19:12
right zero margin is a bad option
00:19:14
because we're just setting ourselves up
00:19:15
for disaster but too much margin is
00:19:18
wasteful right it's just wasted time
00:19:20
right if you have a one- day layover for
00:19:22
every flight you're just going to be
00:19:24
wasting days of time in the airport we
00:19:26
need to balance wasted margin against
00:19:29
the possibility for disaster it's
00:19:30
challenge but it's something we need to
00:19:32
try to do lesson number three try to
00:19:35
keep your cool because it's pretty hard
00:19:38
so right now some of my clients are
00:19:39
nervous their portfolios are down six or
00:19:42
seven figures here in
00:19:44
20122 and so they're thinking to
00:19:46
themselves don't just stand there do
00:19:48
something now their thoughts are
00:19:51
completely Justified completely human
00:19:53
but part of investment education is to
00:19:55
teach and remind them well first I hear
00:19:58
you I understand you I get it you're not
00:20:01
alone let me offer some ideas to ponder
00:20:03
and then let me know what you think we
00:20:06
also remind them that hey we chose an
00:20:07
asset allocation based on your goals
00:20:09
your risk tolerance your timelines have
00:20:12
those changed you know your financial
00:20:14
plan dictates your investment choices
00:20:16
not the other way around we remind them
00:20:19
that changing asset allocation based on
00:20:21
recent performance is as history shows
00:20:24
it's challenging short-sighted usually
00:20:26
regrettable we remind them that their
00:20:28
portfolios worked really wonderfully
00:20:30
over the past 10 years that markets do
00:20:32
work in cycles and after a wonderful
00:20:35
10-year cycle it's not necessarily
00:20:38
surprising that we're having a bare
00:20:40
market right now that said yes 2022 is
00:20:44
uniquely bad right because of the
00:20:45
correlated performance of stocks and
00:20:47
bonds both being down but that said the
00:20:51
forward Outlook is good right when price
00:20:54
to earnings ratios are down like they
00:20:57
are right now that's a sign of strong
00:20:59
forward stock returns when interest
00:21:02
rates are up like they are right now
00:21:05
that's a strong sign of forward Bond
00:21:07
returns so right now is not the time to
00:21:09
abandon ship it's exactly the opposite
00:21:12
in fact the airplane parallel here isn't
00:21:15
perfect but there are similarities right
00:21:17
my wife and I were frustrated we saw our
00:21:19
problems growing worse before us it felt
00:21:22
like nobody cared as much as we did but
00:21:24
no matter our stress no matter our
00:21:26
frustration our apathy
00:21:28
we couldn't fix the plane in Rochester
00:21:30
we couldn't fly the replacement from
00:21:32
Philadelphia we couldn't ask the pilots
00:21:34
on the tarmac to just go right and we
00:21:37
couldn't ask the Tokyo bound plane to
00:21:39
wait for us our negative emotions while
00:21:43
understandable right they served no
00:21:44
productive purpose our feelings were
00:21:47
perfectly understandable perfectly human
00:21:49
but not helpful and there's this quote
00:21:51
from epic tetus you might be able to
00:21:53
guess he was a Roman guy this picture
00:21:56
with a quote on it it's not actually him
00:21:57
right it's a marble statue I'm not even
00:21:59
sure if he was a real person but epicus
00:22:01
said happiness and freedom begin with a
00:22:04
clear understanding of one principle
00:22:07
some things are within your control and
00:22:10
some things are not simple profound
00:22:14
thank you epic tetus the next lesson
00:22:16
from our missed flight bad things will
00:22:19
happen but they can get worse so there's
00:22:22
an old joke in investing circles
00:22:25
question how does a stock drop 90%
00:22:28
answer it drops 80% then it gets cut in
00:22:32
half in other words one bad thing
00:22:35
happening an 80% drop doesn't preclude
00:22:38
more bad things from happening like
00:22:40
another 50% drop previous bad luck
00:22:43
doesn't mean you're do for good luck and
00:22:45
vice versa it's the same logical fallacy
00:22:48
leading to results oriented thinking
00:22:50
recall what Annie Duke said earlier you
00:22:53
can't control your luck we Kelly and I
00:22:56
had three consecutive bad lucks eat away
00:22:59
our entire layover margin investing at
00:23:03
least in the short run looking at
00:23:05
individual assets can work similarly the
00:23:08
used car company carvana for example has
00:23:11
suffered setback after setback in the
00:23:13
past 12 months its stock has plummeted
00:23:16
and there's no Silver Lining waiting
00:23:18
behind all the bad news there's just
00:23:20
more bad news and then in the article I
00:23:23
show a chart of enron's stock price from
00:23:25
1994 to 2002 and when Enron started
00:23:29
going downhill there were 20 and 30%
00:23:32
drops and then small recoveries and then
00:23:35
another 30 or 40% drop and then a small
00:23:37
recovery then a 50% drop and a small
00:23:39
recovery and all along the time it
00:23:41
probably took a year for that to happen
00:23:44
there were investors out there thinking
00:23:45
oh well it dropped but it'll recover
00:23:47
from here oh it'll recover from here
00:23:49
though right and it dropped some more oh
00:23:51
it's going to recover from here right
00:23:53
and it went all the way down to zero so
00:23:56
just because bad things happen
00:23:58
doesn't mean that more bad things aren't
00:24:00
going to happen in the future okay it's
00:24:03
kind of a tough lesson to learn but an
00:24:05
important one for investors and then the
00:24:07
next lesson those bad things they don't
00:24:09
just add up they actually compound so
00:24:12
three minor setbacks for us right three
00:24:15
hourong setbacks compounded into a
00:24:18
24-hour delay and in investing those bad
00:24:21
results can similarly compound into
00:24:23
permanent and or complete loss of
00:24:25
capital the last lesson I think is the
00:24:28
last lesson it is the last lesson is
00:24:30
that incentives Drive Behavior something
00:24:32
I talk about a lot here on the best
00:24:34
interest I know that nobody in the
00:24:37
Airlines at the airports I know that
00:24:39
nobody acted maliciously against us now
00:24:42
that said I learned an important lesson
00:24:44
from the ground staff who assured us
00:24:46
that we'd make our connection because
00:24:48
here's this hypothetical question what's
00:24:50
the easiest way to make a problem go
00:24:53
away the answer is you convince those
00:24:56
concerned that the problem doesn't exist
00:24:58
at all so hindsight being 2020 I think
00:25:01
that the ground crew in Rochester should
00:25:03
have could have Woulda looked into
00:25:05
rerouting us a different way or if need
00:25:08
be telling us the cold hard truth we
00:25:10
weren't going to be able to make our
00:25:12
connection in Boston and our best bet
00:25:14
would be to go home in Rochester sleep
00:25:17
there overnight and try again the next
00:25:19
day instead the ground crew smiled and
00:25:22
nodded told us we would make our flight
00:25:25
they optimistically sent us onward to
00:25:27
Boston saying you'll be fine you've got
00:25:28
plenty of time I'm looking at it right
00:25:30
here on my terminal they made us believe
00:25:33
that the problem didn't exist why well
00:25:36
at least in part because that ground
00:25:39
crew in Rochester has no incentive of
00:25:41
accountability from us the passengers
00:25:44
once we're onto the next city once we're
00:25:46
on the ground in Boston we're no longer
00:25:48
their problem and so we became a pretty
00:25:51
big problem to the poor ground crew in
00:25:53
Boston they had to spend an hour with us
00:25:55
looking for the best easiest fastest way
00:25:58
to get us to Hanoi securing a hotel room
00:26:00
for us in Boston setting us up with food
00:26:03
vouchers I mean the Boston crew had to
00:26:05
clean up after the Rochester crew and
00:26:08
you better believe that some part of the
00:26:09
Boston crew their heads thought well we
00:26:12
didn't create this mess why do we need
00:26:14
to bend over backwards to help these two
00:26:16
passengers so anyway incentives Drive
00:26:20
Behavior just like Charlie Monger said
00:26:22
show me the incentive and I will show
00:26:24
you the outcome so ultimately listen I
00:26:27
get it our trouble this was a first
00:26:29
world problem our 18-day trip was now
00:26:32
only 17 days oh no I get it I get it now
00:26:36
that said the helplessness of air travel
00:26:38
is a great reminder for how investors
00:26:41
should act you make the best decisions
00:26:43
you can you use margin to Shield
00:26:45
yourself from bad luck and then you
00:26:47
cross your fingers and you hope for the
00:26:49
[Music]
00:26:56
best all right guys one more article
00:26:59
this one is not too personal finance and
00:27:02
investing related that said I have a
00:27:05
feeling you'll find it really
00:27:06
interesting because the title of this
00:27:08
article is why I'm quitting social media
00:27:11
I'm writing this well really I'm
00:27:13
speaking this so that people have met
00:27:15
through social media will get the answer
00:27:16
to the inevitable question of like hey
00:27:18
where' Jesse go but I'd love to know if
00:27:21
you've had similar thoughts to mine so
00:27:23
please feel free to stay in touch with
00:27:25
me via email at Jesse
00:27:28
at bestter interest. blog at its heart
00:27:31
in a small way this is a personal
00:27:33
finance article or speech because our
00:27:36
main resource in life is not money right
00:27:39
it's time part of me quitting social
00:27:41
media is that I want to reclaim my time
00:27:44
so let's dive in to my reasons for
00:27:46
quitting social media the first one
00:27:48
social media wastes too much time hey I
00:27:50
just said that so it's true it's true
00:27:53
for creators and consumers alike I've
00:27:56
sent 19,000 300 tweets from my blog's
00:28:00
Twitter account since social media
00:28:01
reared its head in the mid 2000s I'm
00:28:04
betting that I've spent thousands
00:28:07
thousands of hours on social media I
00:28:09
don't think that's too ridiculous I
00:28:10
think it's simple fact I bet you've
00:28:12
spent thousands of hours on it too and
00:28:14
to what end yes so there's been some
00:28:16
good I've met some fantastic people I've
00:28:19
shared with them I've learned from them
00:28:21
some of you have probably found this
00:28:23
podcast found my blog through social
00:28:25
media that's an amazing result and
00:28:26
that's what I wanted to happen that said
00:28:30
it's kind of like saying I've met some
00:28:32
golden Souls at the crack house great
00:28:35
folks with plenty of worldly wisdom I
00:28:37
mean yes I'm sure the people there are
00:28:39
good but that's not a good reason to
00:28:40
smoke crack right as good as the people
00:28:43
are who I have met through social media
00:28:46
unfortunately I think that the cons of
00:28:48
social media or of me using it at least
00:28:51
outweigh the pros of having met those
00:28:53
people according to statista which is a
00:28:57
statis ICS aggregation site the global
00:28:59
average usage of social media is 2.5
00:29:02
hours per person per day now usage at
00:29:07
that time I can't believe that's good
00:29:08
for Humanity and I no longer want to be
00:29:11
a part of it my next reason social media
00:29:14
is addictive by Design if you haven't
00:29:16
seen Netflix's the social dilemma it's a
00:29:19
documentary called the social dilemma I
00:29:21
think it's worth your time the
00:29:23
documentary shows how social media quote
00:29:26
nurtures addiction to maximize profit
00:29:29
unquote by quote manipulating people's
00:29:33
views emotions and behavior unquote
00:29:36
addiction hey that's another crack
00:29:38
analogy and manipulation that's the
00:29:40
underpinning of social media I don't
00:29:43
want to subject myself to it anymore and
00:29:45
there are some stats associated with
00:29:47
this movie a 5,000 person study found
00:29:50
that higher social media use correlated
00:29:53
with self-reported declines in mental
00:29:56
and physical health and life
00:29:59
satisfaction all right my next reason
00:30:01
social media hacks dopamine so this is
00:30:03
how social media addicts us guys it
00:30:05
hacks the dopamine system in our brain
00:30:08
to the point that not using social media
00:30:10
starts to seem too boring in other words
00:30:13
it changes our Humanity this is personal
00:30:16
right I can't sit silent and read a book
00:30:18
for 10 minutes without this thought
00:30:21
seeping into my head hey maybe you
00:30:23
should check your phone I'm ashamed of
00:30:26
that I feel like a kid who can't control
00:30:28
his compulsion to eat the marshmallows
00:30:30
you know that marshmallow study if
00:30:32
you're not familiar Google it I've got a
00:30:33
link on the blog but I feel like a kid
00:30:36
who has no sort of impulse control my
00:30:38
attention span is gone and I'm far from
00:30:41
alone another Link in the blog post that
00:30:43
shows the stats how the attention span
00:30:45
is changing so that hunt for dopamine
00:30:48
more likes more followers more
00:30:50
retweets it compels us to do dumb stuff
00:30:54
so I wrote this article when let me
00:30:55
think I was on the plane back from my
00:30:57
honeymoon in Vietnam and Thailand it was
00:31:00
fresh on my mind we witnessed an
00:31:03
appalling number of tourists in
00:31:05
Southeast Asia and these are tourists
00:31:07
these are Global tourists right it
00:31:08
wasn't just white Western people like
00:31:11
Kelly and I it was people from all over
00:31:13
the world we witnessed an appalling
00:31:16
number of them doing stupid shitty
00:31:18
things for social media photos sneaking
00:31:22
cameras into forbidden Buddhist temples
00:31:25
blocking long waiting lines to ensure
00:31:27
that they had the perfect photo
00:31:29
background recordings just contrived
00:31:32
videos that are made to look candid and
00:31:35
spontanous it's sometimes unethical it's
00:31:38
sometimes immoral it's usually just
00:31:40
plain stupid this is how we act because
00:31:43
we're addicted to magical internet
00:31:46
points and the dopamine that they
00:31:47
provide us so I can't make other people
00:31:50
stop but I can choose to not partake
00:31:53
myself next reason social media
00:31:56
interrupts deeper work okay we've
00:31:58
already established that social media
00:32:00
Wast time right in and of itself but
00:32:03
kind of like a train leaving the station
00:32:05
most of us including me we need time to
00:32:08
get up to speed into our Flow State or
00:32:11
into deep work and again studies show
00:32:14
that every social media visit it makes
00:32:16
it harder to do this deep work because
00:32:19
we get into our Flow State we're doing
00:32:20
good and then we interrupt ourselves
00:32:22
with social media we go back to work 5
00:32:25
minutes later and we're no longer in
00:32:27
that flow state it takes time to get up
00:32:30
to speed in Flow State okay next reason
00:32:33
social media is just a rat race I know
00:32:36
some creators I mean there are awesome
00:32:38
personal finance and investing creators
00:32:40
who spend eight plus hours a day on
00:32:43
social media mainly that spent
00:32:45
interacting with other accounts as a
00:32:47
means of getting noticed and some of
00:32:50
these people they even hire assistance
00:32:51
to help because the more your accounts
00:32:54
grow on social media the more
00:32:56
maintenance time time is required to
00:32:58
maintain that level but then also to
00:33:00
continue growing it's kind of like the
00:33:02
faster you spin your hamster wheel the
00:33:04
harder you have to work to maintain it
00:33:07
next reason the filters for expertise on
00:33:10
social media are far too noisy who
00:33:13
adjudicates expertise anyway social
00:33:16
media is making that question harder to
00:33:17
answer the main reason is because the
00:33:20
metric of Merit if you will on social
00:33:22
media is a follower count which can be
00:33:25
easily hacked and might as well go into
00:33:27
that I was apart for a while again kind
00:33:30
of a shame to say it but at the same
00:33:31
time it's not too shameful on its face
00:33:33
but the results can be shameful that I
00:33:35
was a part of a couple groups on Twitter
00:33:37
where the express point of those groups
00:33:40
was that we'd all share each other's
00:33:41
content in order to all grow each
00:33:44
other's accounts and some of the people
00:33:46
in those groups are putting out amazing
00:33:49
content and so you'd feel like their
00:33:51
follower growth was welld deserved but
00:33:54
some of the people in those groups are
00:33:56
putting out just boring simple bad
00:33:59
incorrect unethical content and you can
00:34:02
choose not to share their work which I
00:34:04
would do my best not to but they're
00:34:07
getting the results of those groups
00:34:08
they're getting the results of other
00:34:09
people sharing their work they're not
00:34:11
naturally sharing their work it's forced
00:34:14
and then they're getting these huge
00:34:15
follower accounts and what you end up
00:34:17
with are giant accounts on social media
00:34:20
that appear like they must be legitimate
00:34:23
I mean how else do you get 100,000
00:34:24
followers when in reality that growth
00:34:27
has just been hacked some of these
00:34:30
accounts so I've been asked questions
00:34:31
like what's the real difference between
00:34:33
a Roth and a traditional account I've
00:34:36
been asked that question by
00:34:37
self-proclaimed money experts with 50
00:34:40
100,000 followers how can an expert not
00:34:43
know the answer to that question I mean
00:34:46
real life demands that we show our
00:34:48
expertise but on social media all you
00:34:51
need to do is talk about it until others
00:34:53
believe you next reason social media is
00:34:55
low quality and competitive I found that
00:34:58
originality on social media is
00:35:00
shockingly rare but again that's by
00:35:02
Design because even slightly complex
00:35:05
messages they fail to provide that quick
00:35:07
hit of dopamine that keeps users coming
00:35:10
back the social media system rewards
00:35:13
Simplicity now my most liked tweet ever
00:35:17
reads 9% into a 401k every paycheck $500
00:35:22
in a Roth IRA every month extremely
00:35:25
simple EX extremely effective sure okay
00:35:29
that's a good message but it's been said
00:35:32
a billion different ways before kind of
00:35:34
like saying use the bathroom wash your
00:35:36
hands it's a good idea that's not
00:35:39
exactly Earth shattering in fact many
00:35:42
content creators deliberately repeat the
00:35:45
same simple messages over and over and
00:35:49
over they intentionally cow toow to the
00:35:52
dumbest common denominator again and
00:35:54
that's because that style of content it
00:35:57
captures the most eyeballs from the most
00:35:59
users saying anything that's remotely
00:36:02
complex even if it's extremely helpful
00:36:05
doesn't capture user dopamine so they
00:36:07
keep it simple and they keep it stupid
00:36:09
that's by Design next reason social
00:36:13
media promotes audience capture audience
00:36:17
capture is a self- enforcing feedback
00:36:19
loop where an audience rewards a creator
00:36:22
for a particular message thus
00:36:24
encouraging the Creator to repeat that
00:36:26
message
00:36:27
one of the more mundane and grotesque
00:36:29
examples is YouTuber Nick Perry AKA
00:36:33
nikado avocado Perry's first foray into
00:36:36
YouTube saw him sharing his two passions
00:36:39
playing the violin and promoting
00:36:41
veganism but there wasn't a very big
00:36:44
audience for vegan violinists so
00:36:47
desperate for more viewers Perry
00:36:49
betrayed his passions and he began
00:36:52
recording videos where he eats
00:36:54
disgusting amounts of food while
00:36:55
chatting into the camera I'm serious
00:36:58
that's it that's the content there's one
00:37:00
man his camera and gluttony Perry grew
00:37:05
popular and as he grew more popular his
00:37:08
audience requested more videos with
00:37:10
larger piles of Greaser food Perry now
00:37:13
has 3.4 million followers on YouTube
00:37:17
he's also gained over 200 lb and I can
00:37:21
attest I'm not going to make you go
00:37:22
Google it but before he was a pretty
00:37:24
much slim normally built human
00:37:27
and now he is morbidly obese and I would
00:37:30
have shared a picture of him doing his
00:37:32
thing on my blog but not only is the
00:37:35
food itself grotesque I mean so is the
00:37:37
fact that Perry changed his entire
00:37:41
personhood to pursue internet Fame so I
00:37:45
write and I talk on the best interest
00:37:47
for my enjoyment and I love the fact
00:37:49
that many thousands of you enjoy it too
00:37:52
right I think that's a win-win but no
00:37:54
offense and I really mean no offense you
00:37:56
guys I never want to be captured by you
00:38:00
and quitting social media helps that end
00:38:03
the next reason social media encourages
00:38:05
the worst of us social media platforms
00:38:08
and their algorithms have recognized
00:38:11
that anger is the most engaging emotion
00:38:14
nothing attracts eyeballs like a fight
00:38:17
and that itself that's the root of echo
00:38:20
Chambers and political divide and boy to
00:38:22
the advertising dollars follow but
00:38:25
sometimes even benign conversations
00:38:27
can turn sour thanks to social media's
00:38:30
tentacles so I was chatting with an
00:38:32
awesome personal finance Creator over
00:38:34
the summer I've got a ton of respect for
00:38:36
her work but when the conversation
00:38:38
turned towards working together you know
00:38:41
her working with the best interest in
00:38:43
some way she said and I quote you're a
00:38:46
great writer and I enjoy your podcast
00:38:48
appearances but I hope you understand I
00:38:51
don't think my audience wants to see
00:38:53
another straight white guy talking to
00:38:55
them about money
00:38:57
end quote I think that's a little bit
00:38:59
gross I think that maybe it's audience
00:39:02
capture or maybe her social media turned
00:39:05
her into some sort of a
00:39:07
bigot okay I'm not even citing the more
00:39:10
egregious problems with social media
00:39:12
like misinformation and propaganda Echo
00:39:15
chambers of hate and grift severe mental
00:39:18
health crises in teens and I'm sure I
00:39:20
missing a few more I do wonder will this
00:39:23
decision hurt the best interest I'm
00:39:25
worried about that
00:39:27
as anthropologists say social death is
00:39:30
worse than a physical death and in the
00:39:32
Modern Age leaving social media kind of
00:39:35
feels like a self-imposed Exile am I
00:39:37
choosing social death maybe but I think
00:39:41
the site will be okay and I'm very
00:39:44
excited about the positives of this
00:39:46
decision so stay happy stay healthy you
00:39:49
guys and again don't hesitate to stay in
00:39:51
touch via email Jesse bestin interest.
00:39:54
blog all right guys that has been long
00:39:57
enough for today I'll save some listener
00:39:59
questions for next time if you do have a
00:40:02
question that you want to ask me I'd
00:40:04
love to answer it here on the podcast
00:40:06
you can email that question to Jesse
00:40:09
bestin interest. blog and that's it
00:40:12
thank you for listening to episode 44 of
00:40:15
the best interest
00:40:17
[Music]
00:40:19
podcast thanks for tuning in to this
00:40:21
episode of the best interest podcast if
00:40:24
you have a question for Jesse to answer
00:40:25
on a future episode send him an email at
00:40:28
Jesse bestter interest. blog again
00:40:31
that's Jesse bestter interest. blog did
00:40:34
you enjoy the show subscribe rate and
00:40:37
review the podcast wherever you listen
00:40:39
this helps others find the show and
00:40:41
invest in knowledge themselves and we
00:40:43
really appreciate it we'll catch you on
00:40:45
the next episode of the best interest
00:40:48
[Music]
00:40:50
podcast the best interest podcast is a
00:40:53
personal podcast met for education and
00:40:55
entertainment it should not be taken as
00:40:57
Financial advice and is not prescriptive
00:41:00
of your financial situation

Badges

This episode stands out for the following:

  • 70
    Most shocking
  • 70
    Most talked-about
  • 60
    Most heartbreaking
  • 60
    Most surprising

Episode Highlights

  • The Rise and Fall of FTX
    FTX, a cryptocurrency exchange, went bankrupt suddenly, risking billions of client money.
    “A lot of ink has been spilled about FTX.”
    @ 00m 42s
    January 29, 2024
  • Lessons from a Honeymoon Disaster
    Jesse shares investing lessons learned from a travel mishap during his honeymoon.
    “Two things determine how your life will turn out: luck and the quality of your decisions.”
    @ 17m 20s
    January 29, 2024
  • Lessons from Missed Flights
    Bad things can happen, but they can also get worse. It's a tough lesson for investors.
    “Just because bad things happen doesn't mean that more bad things aren't going to happen.”
    @ 23m 58s
    January 29, 2024
  • The Addictive Nature of Social Media
    Social media is designed to be addictive, impacting our mental health and attention spans.
    “Social media is addictive by design.”
    @ 29m 14s
    January 29, 2024
  • The Decision to Quit Social Media
    Choosing to leave social media can feel like social death, but it may lead to positive outcomes.
    “I think that maybe it’s audience capture or maybe her social media turned her into some sort of a bigot.”
    @ 38m 59s
    January 29, 2024

Episode Quotes

Key Moments

  • Episode 4400:22
  • Confidence in FTT04:37
  • Celebrity Endorsements13:05
  • Investment Lessons14:37
  • Control and Freedom22:01
  • Compounding Bad Luck24:09
  • Reclaiming Time27:41
  • Social Death39:30

Words per Minute Over Time

Vibes Breakdown

Related Episodes

Podcast thumbnail
Societal Challenges and the "Money World" Don't Always Mix | Katie Gatti Tassin - E89
Podcast thumbnail
Where Investors Go Wrong: Tax Traps, Math Mistakes, and Behavioral Biases - E115
Podcast thumbnail
Practical Reasons Why "Retirement Success" Can Still Be Painful | Rob Berger - E88