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The Banking Collapse in Simple Terms - E50

January 29, 2024 / 23:14

This episode discusses Silicon Valley Bank's recent failure, how banks operate, and the implications for depositors and the banking system.

Host Jesse Kramer explains the basic structure of banks, including assets and liabilities, and how Silicon Valley Bank's unique focus on securities rather than loans contributed to its downfall.

The episode covers the timeline of events leading to the bank's crisis, including the need to sell bonds at a loss and the subsequent bank run that resulted in significant withdrawals.

Kramer also addresses the federal government's intervention to protect depositors, clarifying that it is not a bailout for the bank itself but rather a measure to maintain confidence in the banking system.

Listeners are encouraged to stay informed through the Best Interest blog for ongoing updates regarding the situation.

TL;DR

Silicon Valley Bank's failure highlights banking risks and government intervention to protect depositors amid a crisis.

Video

00:00:01
welcome to the best interest podcast
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where we believe Benjamin Franklin's
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advice that an investment in knowledge
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pays the best interest both in finances
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and in your life every episode teaches
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you personal finance and investing in
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simple terms now here's your host Jesse
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Kramer hey guys what's up this is Jesse
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Kramer speaking from the best interest
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welcome to episode 51 of the best
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interest podcast
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let's see I'm recording this on Monday
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March 13th and over the weekend I got a
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lot of questions some from listeners
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some from readers some from clients
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about Silicon Valley Bank if you haven't
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seen Silicon Valley Bank in the news
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that's what we're going to be talking
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about today we're going to break it down
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in simple terms it's going to be pretty
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educational even just something as basic
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as how exactly does a bank work because
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I think that most people including
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myself up until you know a couple years
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ago I didn't really understand the
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business model of banks so we're going
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to talk about that we're going to talk
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about what made Silicon Valley Bank
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unique in some ways and how that
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uniqueness led to its failure we're
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going to try to keep you as up to dat as
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possible on what's been happening over
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the last say 48 Hours again I'm talking
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to you right now it is 143 p.m. eastern
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time on Monday the 13th by the time this
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comes out on Wednesday the 15th or by
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the time you listen to it on the 16th or
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17th or maybe over the weekend things
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might have changed we'll see I've got an
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article on the best interest that's an
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article on the blog that I'm trying my
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best to keep it up to date so as things
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come out I'll try to throw some little
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updates in there and explain exactly
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what it means to you but let's get into
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the good stuff let's talk about what
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happened with Silicon Valley
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[Music]
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[Applause]
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[Applause]
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Bank okay so you're seeing Silicon
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Valley Bank in the news people are
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comparing it to the great financial
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crisis in 2008 right banks are failing
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what is going on so we're going to talk
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about Silicon Valley Bank in simple
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terms and we're going to start with how
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do banks even work it's a very simple
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question but it's fundamental that we
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understand that before we can get into
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the specifics of Silicon Valley Bank all
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banks have assets and
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liabilities now you're probably familiar
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with both those ideas even if you don't
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realize it the liabilities are deposits
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just like the money that you deposit in
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your savings account you are a depositor
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at a bank I am a depositor at a bank and
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since the Bank owes us that money back
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plus interest it's a liability on the
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bank's balance sheet now the bank also
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has assets to offset those liabilities
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they come in two forms loans and
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securities so we'll break each of those
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down banks give out personal loans
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business loans mortgage loans Etc they
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charge a higher rate to to the loan
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borrowers say 6% then they pay to their
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depositors say 1% so that difference
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which in this case was 5% that's called
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the net interest margin or n the Nim and
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that's the main way that Banks make
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money right they take in my and your
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deposits and they pay us a small
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interest rate but then they take our
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deposits they loan them out to someone
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else and they charge a higher interest
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rate that difference that Nim some
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people call it the spread that's the way
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that most banks make money okay but
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Banks outside of making loans they can
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also choose to buy Securities using that
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money right security is just a synonym
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for a stock a bond a Reit those are all
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Securities most commonly the Securities
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that Banks buy take the form of
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short-term high quality bonds just like
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a three-month or a six-month us treasury
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bill now most banks perform better when
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interest rates rise
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and the reason why is because they're
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able to increase their Nim and make more
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money off of their loans and therefore
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generate more profit so the more a bank
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relies specifically on loans the better
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that bank does when interest rates rise
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but if a bank relies heavily on
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Securities specifically on bonds then
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the opposite is true Rising interest
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rates hurt bond prices and the bank's
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Bond portfolio will also drop when
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interest rates rise and this this is
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worthy of a quick aside quick
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explanation why do bonds drop in value
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when interest rates rise simple
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explanation let's go through it let's
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say that you own a bond right now it
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comes due in a year and it's paying you
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2% great well guess what guys I could go
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out right now and buy a a one-year Bond
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on the open market that's yielding 4 and
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a
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half% so my question would be why would
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I buy your bond that's yielding 2% if I
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can just go buy a new one that's
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yielding 4 A half% clearly in this case
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your bond is worth less to me than a new
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Bond it's just simple math right it's
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it's just we get at supply and demand it
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just makes sense your 2% bond is not as
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appealing to me as a 4 and a half% bond
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so if you're holding 2% bonds and then
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you see interest rates rise to three
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four 5% everyone's going to want a new
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Bond they don't want your old Bond
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that's yielding a lower amount that
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happens to Banks if a bank is holding a
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big Bond portfolio and maybe those bonds
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don't come due for years in the future
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and then interest rates rise the bonds
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that the bank currently holds are going
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to be worth less than when they bought
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them granted the way that bonds work
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you're always going to get your money
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back at the end of the bond term bond
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pricing is kind of intricate I'm not
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going to get too much into the details
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right now but suffice to say the reason
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why Banks tend to hold shorter term
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bonds is because they're less interest
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rate sensitive right let's say I buy a$
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thousand Bond and it's yielding 3% but
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it comes due in a month well I'm only
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going to get to capture that 3% interest
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for 30 days I'm only going to capture
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really like a 12th right one month out
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of a year I'm going to capture a 12th of
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that interest and so what if in the
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interim interest rates rise to 4% my
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bond really isn't that much affected I'm
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going to get a little bit of interest
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and then collect all my money back the
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the ,000 I put in I'm going to collect
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that back at the end of the month but if
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a bond has a 10-year term well all of a
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sudden it's pretty interest rate
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sensitive because when rates rise from
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say 3% to 5% that 2% difference is going
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to be expressed over 10 years of the
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bond term not just one month so Banks
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tend to if they hold bonds they
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generally the cautious thing to do is to
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hold shorter term bonds okay but let's
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talk now about Silicon Valley Bank
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specifically so Silicon Valley Bank it's
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specialized in helping tech companies
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really startups um some biotech Lifey
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science type companies Silicon Valley
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digital tech companies and the bank
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itself it's grown rapidly especially in
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recent years because of that focus it
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was you might have seen in the news the
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16th biggest bank in the country it's a
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serious bank now most tech companies
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many tech companies in recent years have
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raised large sums of cash through say
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Venture Capital private Equity or by
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going public and then they have to
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deposit that cash somewhere a lot of
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those deposits have gone to Silicon
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Valley Bank being cash heavy those tech
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companies didn't necessarily need loans
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from Silicon Valley Bank so Silicon
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Valley Bank they've got lots of cash
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deposits they don't necessarily have a
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bunch of loans that they need to be
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making so what are they going to do with
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that extra money they decided to buy
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Securities it's what banks do however
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the percentage of loans and the
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percentage of Securities that Silicon
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Valley Bank held was a bit different
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than most banks most banks tend to be
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loan heavy most of their assets are on
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the loan side side svb Silicon Valley
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Bank was unique in that it was
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Securities heavy okay that makes a
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difference so as interest rates Rose
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over the past year a lot of the easy
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money and Venture Capital private Equity
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it dried up so many of silicon Valley's
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customers its depositors those tech
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companies they stopped making new
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deposits into the bank if anything they
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actually started taking money out of the
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bank right I'm sitting on A10 million
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but I got to run my business I'm not
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getting any more venture capital so I'm
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going to start pulling on that $10
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million at Silicon Valley Bank to make
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payroll to run my business all that kind
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of stuff if anything you guys might know
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this early stage tech companies they go
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through a lot of cash right they
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Hemorrhage cash by their nature so if
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new money from venture capital or
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private Equity isn't coming in then it
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means that Silicon Valley Bank their
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total deposits must have been decreasing
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pretty rapidly that was true over the
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past 10 years Silicon Valley Banks
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concentration in tech companies it's
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been really helpful for their business
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it meant tons of new deposits were
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flowing into the bank but that
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concentration is a double-edged sword
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and over the past year those deposits
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have only been leaving the bank so now
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remember those deposits they're not
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sitting in dollar bills in a safe at the
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bank instead those deposits have been
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deployed they've been used as loans to
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other bank customers and they've been
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used to buy
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Securities if too many depositors need
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too much of their money back from the
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bank all at the same time the bank might
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be in trouble they're going to need to
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take drastic action to raise that cash
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and that's what svb Silicon Valley Bank
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needed to do last week they needed to
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raise cash and what they did was they
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sold 21 billion that's billion with a B
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they sold $21 billion of their bond
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portfolio last Wednesday March 8th now
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interest rates spiked early last week
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after Federal Reserve chairman Jay
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Powell he had a press conference and
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that interest rate Spike what does that
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do to bond prices that hurts bond prices
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right so that lowered the value of
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Silicon Valley Banks bonds they had to
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sell them anyway to raise cash and they
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sold them at an estimated $1.8 billion
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loss in other words they purchased the
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bonds for about $23 billion weeks and
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months ago then they sold them last week
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for $21 billion now a $2 billion loss
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obviously that's a ton of money but
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especially for a bank which is generally
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considered a safe business model that's
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a full year of profits probably more
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than a full year of profits for Silicon
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Valley Bank so for them to lose that
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much money intentionally by selling
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their bond portfolio it raises a really
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scary question how much trouble does
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Silicon Valley Bank how much trouble are
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they in to do something so
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drastic and then last week in another
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attempt to raise money Silicon Valley
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Bank they tried selling some of the
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shares of their common stock right the
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company itself owns shares of its common
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stock and they attempted to sell about
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30% of the bank's total value out into
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the market which again that dilutes
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current shareholders ownership by
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30% that in itself is another drastic
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measure that caused Silicon Valley
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Bank's stock price to crash even further
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than it already was crashing and that
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attempt to raise more cash It ultimately
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failed and it begs again a similar
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question to the one we just asked why
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would Silicon Valley Bank sell these
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shares of stock now at about $200 per
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share when they tried last week instead
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of last year when the bank was valued
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at600 or $700 per share it reeks of
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desperation now that desperation that
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weakness that caused a tital wave of
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about $42 billion in attempted
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withdrawals last Thursday March 9th
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alone so as of close of business on
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March 9th Silicon Valley Bank had a
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negative cash balance of 900 58 million
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with an M $958
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million it owed depositors $ 958 million
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dollar that it didn't have now this is
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the way that bank runs tend to work I
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saw a really good analogy from Ben
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Carlson in an article I read today he
00:12:15
goes imagine if you went to Planet
00:12:16
Fitness and every single member of the
00:12:19
gym showed up at the same time you'd
00:12:21
have a pretty big problem there at the
00:12:23
squad rack right the way gym memberships
00:12:25
work is they only expect I don't know 5
00:12:28
10 20% of their members to be there at
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any given time and that's the way that
00:12:31
everybody gets to use the gym Banks work
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the same way they only have a small
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percentage of the actual cash deposits
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on hand everything else is being loaned
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out everything else is in the form of
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Securities if everyone comes at once
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demanding their cash the bank might be
00:12:47
in some trouble that's a bank run you
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might have seen this scene from It's a
00:12:51
Wonderful Life it's a great Learning
00:12:53
lesson I'm going to play the audio for
00:12:55
you right here the money's not here well
00:12:58
your money's in Joe's house that's right
00:13:00
next to yours you're lending them the
00:13:02
money to build and then they're going to
00:13:03
pay it back to you as best they can what
00:13:04
are you going to do four close on them I
00:13:06
got
00:13:07
$242 in here and $242 isn't going to
00:13:11
break anybody but my husband hasn't
00:13:13
worked in over a year and I need money
00:13:15
how am I going to live until the bank
00:13:17
opens I got dror bills to pay I need
00:13:19
cash I can't keep back kids on fa when
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depositors lose confidence in a bank
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they want their money back this
00:13:25
compounds the bank's problems even
00:13:27
further it's exactly what happened to
00:13:29
Silicon Valley bank now in the Great
00:13:32
Depression many banks completely failed
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and it left their depositors hung out to
00:13:37
dry and that's when the federal
00:13:39
government decided to step in and they
00:13:41
passed the Banking Act of 1933 which
00:13:44
created the Federal Deposit Insurance
00:13:46
Corporation or FDIC the FDIC ures Bank
00:13:49
deposits up to
00:13:51
$250,000 so you me every American with
00:13:54
money at a bank is insured up to
00:13:57
$250,000
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the FDIC they stepped in on Friday March
00:14:03
10th and they took over Silicon Valley
00:14:05
Bank depositors at svb they are safe up
00:14:09
to
00:14:10
$250,000 recently on Sunday the 12th the
00:14:13
federal government said you know what
00:14:15
not only are they safe up to
00:14:16
$250,000 they're also safe basically in
00:14:20
full the federal government is going to
00:14:21
make depositors whole we're going to get
00:14:24
into why they did that here in a second
00:14:26
but it's important to realize the
00:14:28
Federal government is not bailing out
00:14:30
the bank itself the bank is going to
00:14:33
cease to exist it is not going to be
00:14:35
operating if you ran the bank you are
00:14:38
out of a job if you owned the bank's
00:14:40
stock you are not going to get your
00:14:42
money back if you owned one of the banks
00:14:44
bonds you are not going to get your
00:14:46
money back the federal government is
00:14:49
only helping out the depositors at the
00:14:51
bank it is not keeping the bank in
00:14:53
business so there just a Nuance there
00:14:55
when it comes to the term bailout when a
00:14:58
bank fails the way that Silicon Valley
00:15:00
Bank failed there are two ways two
00:15:03
traditional ways that a rescue might
00:15:05
occur the first one we kind of already
00:15:07
talked about it is that the federal
00:15:08
government steps in in some way perhaps
00:15:11
steps in above the $250,000 limit
00:15:14
perhaps they step in and actually give
00:15:16
the bank money to stay in business
00:15:19
that's what happened in the great
00:15:20
financial crisis when about $200 billion
00:15:24
was given and or loaned to Banks to
00:15:26
ensure that the banks themselves stayed
00:15:28
Alive Now on Sunday March 12th treasury
00:15:32
secretary Janet yelen said that the
00:15:34
federal government would not pursue that
00:15:37
course of action meaning the federal
00:15:39
government is not going to step in to
00:15:41
keep Silicon Valley Bank itself in
00:15:44
business right just to reiterate that
00:15:47
they are stepping in as we found out at
00:15:49
around 6:30 on Sunday March 12th they're
00:15:51
stepping in to fully protect all
00:15:53
depositors who as of today Monday March
00:15:56
13th had full access to to their money
00:15:59
and no losses associated with the
00:16:01
resolution of Silicon Valley Bank would
00:16:03
be borne onto the taxpayer that's
00:16:05
another thing interesting point here the
00:16:07
federal government is planning on
00:16:09
raising money via an assessment against
00:16:12
other Banks basically saying hey
00:16:14
everyone in the banking industry you
00:16:15
have to chip in to make silicon Valley's
00:16:19
depositors whole I'll be honest with you
00:16:21
guys I'm not really sure how this is
00:16:23
going to play out because if I was
00:16:24
running a healthy bank and I was doing
00:16:26
everything right I wouldn't feel great
00:16:30
about having to chip in some fund that
00:16:32
keeps Silicon Valley Bank alive they
00:16:35
screwed up why is it my problem anyway
00:16:38
that's something for the federal
00:16:39
government and banking Regulators to
00:16:41
figure
00:16:42
out but let's get to a second
00:16:44
possibility a way that Banks could be
00:16:46
bailed out and we'll see what happens
00:16:49
this week with Silicon Valley Bank it
00:16:50
might still be possible where a private
00:16:53
institution steps in and agrees to buy
00:16:57
Silicon Valley Bank likely at you know
00:16:59
Pennies on the dollar at a steeply
00:17:01
discounted price this is what happened
00:17:04
during the great financial crisis in a
00:17:06
few different ways famously Warren
00:17:08
Buffett stepped in he injected cash into
00:17:11
Goldman Sachs and into Bank of America
00:17:14
in exchange for a large ownership share
00:17:17
of those two Banks right similar to the
00:17:20
way that Silicon Valley Bank really
00:17:21
needed cash last week golden Sachs and
00:17:24
Bank of America really needed cash
00:17:26
during some parts of the great financial
00:17:28
crisis and Warren Buffett stepped in and
00:17:29
said sure you can have my cash in
00:17:31
exchange for ownership and that turned
00:17:34
out to be a wonderful investment for
00:17:36
Warren Buffett now famously Warren
00:17:39
Buffett said no to Leman brothers and he
00:17:42
said no to AIG Leman Brothers failed
00:17:46
completely and AIG ended up getting US
00:17:49
Federal bailout money but here's a good
00:17:52
clip of Warren Buffett talking about
00:17:54
saying no to lhan and to AIG uh this
00:17:58
goes back a little before the Panic
00:18:00
Leman was looking for money at that time
00:18:03
and they approached
00:18:05
birkshire I came down to the office uh
00:18:08
at night made these little notes on here
00:18:11
of things that were red flags and you'll
00:18:13
see a number of pages here and you had
00:18:15
to get to page 150 or 200 but there was
00:18:19
there was clearly a lot of trouble uh
00:18:22
there by the time I got through I
00:18:24
decided that that uh we were not in a
00:18:27
position to mondy to lemman I was still
00:18:30
wondering what was going on obviously
00:18:32
with AIG in New York but there was
00:18:34
nothing to be done AIG uh was just going
00:18:37
to run out of money big time uh in the
00:18:40
next day or two and uh Leman was going
00:18:42
to go under unless something was
00:18:44
happening that I didn't know about the
00:18:46
important point is that Silicon Valley
00:18:48
Bank depositors and by proxy American
00:18:51
depositors as a whole are made to feel
00:18:53
confident that they'll receive 100% of
00:18:56
their deposits back because let's get
00:18:59
into this idea of what happens if no
00:19:01
sort of bailout were to occur there's
00:19:04
really no good answer you know should
00:19:06
the federal government have stepped in
00:19:07
to bail out Silicon Valley Bank in some
00:19:09
way shape or form giving it money to
00:19:11
make its depositors whole it's a hard
00:19:13
question because if the government does
00:19:16
bail out Silicon Valley Bank which we we
00:19:18
saw that they did to some extent it
00:19:21
reinforces the following precedent hey
00:19:23
American Banks do whatever the heck you
00:19:26
want be irresponsible cut corners
00:19:28
squeeze profits out of your customers
00:19:30
overc concentrate your business if you
00:19:33
screw up we'll have your back you'll pay
00:19:35
no consequences okay that's a dangerous
00:19:38
precedent to set it's called moral
00:19:39
hazard it's the lack of an incentive to
00:19:42
protect against risk but if the
00:19:45
government does not bail out Silicon
00:19:47
Valley bank then it sends this message
00:19:49
hey attention all banks attention all
00:19:51
depositors all looners all investors in
00:19:53
Bank stocks you are on much thinner ice
00:19:57
than you previously assumed and that
00:20:00
outcome could cause a crisis of
00:20:02
confidence where perfectly healthy banks
00:20:04
are called into question as Warren
00:20:06
Buffett said fear is extraordinarily
00:20:09
contagious right how do I know that my
00:20:11
bank isn't the next Silicon Valley Bank
00:20:14
maybe I should go to my bank and pull
00:20:15
out all my money so then maybe a second
00:20:18
run on a questionable Bank occurs and
00:20:21
then a third and a fourth one but maybe
00:20:23
on some safer Banks next thing you know
00:20:25
boom boom boom the dominoes are falling
00:20:27
and banks are failing all over the
00:20:29
country this would be so-called
00:20:32
Financial contagion an outcome that
00:20:34
would be far worse than any single Bank
00:20:36
failing avoiding that Financial
00:20:38
contagion that's a must and it's 100%
00:20:41
the reason why the federal government
00:20:42
stepped in in 2008 and it's a big reason
00:20:45
why we saw the federal government step
00:20:46
in yesterday to save the depositors at
00:20:49
Silicon Valley Bank so now an important
00:20:52
question are other banks in trouble I'm
00:20:55
sure some might be but as we noted
00:20:58
earlier Silicon Valley Bank is unique in
00:21:00
a few ways those unique features
00:21:03
directly led to its failure most other
00:21:05
banks are unlike Silicon Valley Bank
00:21:08
they're actually stronger today than
00:21:10
they were one year ago and remember most
00:21:12
banks are loan heavy Silicon Valley Bank
00:21:16
is Securities heavy it's easier to
00:21:19
profit from loans when interest rates
00:21:20
rise the banks that are loan heavy
00:21:23
they're stronger now on average than any
00:21:25
time in the past decade unlike Silicon
00:21:28
Valley Banks concentration in tech
00:21:31
company customers most banks have a
00:21:33
diverse portfolio of customers they're
00:21:36
not exposed to the same concentration
00:21:38
risk as Silicon Valley Bank on merits
00:21:40
alone the US banking system is not in
00:21:43
trouble the only fear literally the only
00:21:46
fear is actually fear itself right any
00:21:49
sort of financial contagion that could
00:21:51
occur it won't be based on banking
00:21:53
fundamentals but instead would be caused
00:21:55
by the collective fear of American
00:21:58
depositors our leaders have to ensure
00:22:00
that that won't happen and that's why
00:22:03
they stepped in to save depositors at
00:22:05
Silicon Valley Bank to make sure that
00:22:07
everybody was made
00:22:08
whole okay so at this point that is a
00:22:11
pretty good explanation of how Banks
00:22:13
work what happened at Silicon Valley
00:22:15
Bank what we might see over the next few
00:22:17
days that said check out the article
00:22:21
down in the show notes on best interest
00:22:22
blog check out the blog post if you want
00:22:24
to see up to-date stuff as it comes out
00:22:27
this week thanks for listening
00:22:30
guys thanks for tuning in to this
00:22:32
episode of the best interest podcast if
00:22:34
you have a question for Jesse to answer
00:22:36
on a future episode send him an email at
00:22:39
Jesse bestin interest. blog again that's
00:22:42
Jesse best bestin interest. blog did you
00:22:45
enjoy the show subscribe rate and review
00:22:48
the podcast wherever you listen this
00:22:50
helps others find the show and invest in
00:22:53
knowledge themselves and we really
00:22:55
appreciate it we'll catch you on the
00:22:56
next episode of the best best interest
00:22:59
[Music]
00:23:01
podcast the best interest podcast is a
00:23:04
personal podcast meant for education and
00:23:06
entertainment it should not be taken as
00:23:08
Financial advice and is not prescriptive
00:23:11
of your financial
00:23:12
situation

Badges

This episode stands out for the following:

  • 70
    Most shocking
  • 70
    Most surprising
  • 70
    Most talked-about
  • 65
    Most intense

Episode Highlights

  • Financial Contagion Explained
    The risk of financial contagion could lead to a crisis worse than a single bank failure.
    “Avoiding that Financial contagion, that’s a must.”
    @ 20m 38s
    January 29, 2024
  • Silicon Valley Bank's Unique Failure
    Silicon Valley Bank's unique features led to its failure, unlike most other banks today.
    “Most other banks are unlike Silicon Valley Bank; they’re actually stronger today.”
    @ 21m 08s
    January 29, 2024
  • The Importance of Confidence
    The federal government intervened to save depositors at Silicon Valley Bank to maintain confidence.
    “Our leaders have to ensure that fear won’t happen.”
    @ 22m 03s
    January 29, 2024

Episode Quotes

Key Moments

  • Silicon Valley Bank Crisis20:00
  • Banking System Stability21:40
  • Fear of Contagion21:46

Words per Minute Over Time

Vibes Breakdown

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