Search Captions & Ask AI

Does the Debt Ceiling Affect Your Finances? - E57

January 29, 2024 / 29:14

This episode discusses the recent debt ceiling crisis, its implications for personal finance, and actions listeners can take to prepare for future financial uncertainties.

Host Jesse Kramer explains the debt ceiling, its history, and why it is significant. He emphasizes that the recent crisis highlighted the importance of having a solid financial foundation, including an emergency fund and a balanced investment portfolio.

Kramer provides actionable advice for listeners, suggesting that those with good financial habits need not worry, while those without should take steps to improve their financial situation. He discusses the potential consequences of failing to raise the debt ceiling, including government shutdowns and impacts on Social Security payments.

The episode also covers the broader economic context of government debt, explaining how it differs from personal debt and the implications of government spending on the economy.

Listeners are encouraged to reflect on their financial preparedness in light of the debt ceiling crisis and consider adjustments to their financial strategies.

TL;DR

The episode covers the debt ceiling crisis, its impact on personal finance, and how to prepare for future financial challenges.

Video

00:00:01
welcome to the best interest podcast
00:00:04
where we believe Benjamin Franklin's
00:00:06
advice that an investment in knowledge
00:00:08
pays the best interest both in finances
00:00:11
and in your life every episode teaches
00:00:13
you personal finance and investing in
00:00:16
simple terms now here's your host Jesse
00:00:21
Kramer hello everybody and welcome to
00:00:24
episode 57 of the best interest podcast
00:00:27
my name is Jesse Kramer today we're
00:00:30
going to be talking all about the debt
00:00:31
ceiling crisis that almost happened that
00:00:33
big debacle things got a little bit
00:00:35
tense leading into Memorial Day weekend
00:00:38
and thankfully our politicians pulled
00:00:40
through they figured out what they're
00:00:42
going to do kind of sort of at the very
00:00:44
least they kicked the can down the road
00:00:46
but we're going to go into detail today
00:00:48
because probably what you guys saw on
00:00:51
the Nightly News or even if you read a
00:00:53
quick blurb in the newspaper it didn't
00:00:55
really dive into detail about why these
00:00:57
things happen why they've been happen
00:00:59
happening now for many many decades why
00:01:02
some debt sealing crises really have
00:01:05
caused the government to temporarily
00:01:07
shut down and considering we only kicked
00:01:10
the can down the road what might happen
00:01:12
in the future so we're going to dive
00:01:14
into some details there explain what
00:01:16
happened but where we're going to start
00:01:18
is actually more important because where
00:01:19
we're going to start is what you guys
00:01:22
should be doing about this fact that we
00:01:24
just had a debt sealing crisis what if
00:01:27
anything you should be doing should you
00:01:28
be taking any action in your personal
00:01:30
financial lives should you do anything
00:01:32
to prepare for the eventuality of a
00:01:35
future debt crisis all good questions so
00:01:38
we're going to start with that we're
00:01:39
going to start with the cool actionable
00:01:41
advice the stuff that you guys can take
00:01:43
away from today and then we'll dive into
00:01:45
detail on exactly what this debt sealing
00:01:48
issue was and you're going to walk away
00:01:50
a little bit smarter and with some
00:01:52
takeaways to implement into your own
00:01:54
life all right let's kick it
00:01:58
off
00:02:06
[Music]
00:02:09
okay so what should you do about this
00:02:12
debt sealing crisis what lessons should
00:02:14
you learn and what what can you
00:02:16
implement into your personal finance
00:02:18
life the short answer and you'll have to
00:02:20
follow me here the short answer is
00:02:22
nothing that you weren't already doing
00:02:25
assuming though that you have good
00:02:27
financial habits in other words
00:02:30
if you already had all your financial
00:02:32
ducks in a row then you're fine you're
00:02:34
totally fine you don't need to change a
00:02:36
thing this debt sealing crisis isn't
00:02:39
really affecting you it didn't affect
00:02:41
you at least not in the long run okay
00:02:44
however if you don't have your financial
00:02:47
ducks in a row then there are some
00:02:49
changes that you should make you
00:02:51
probably should have been making these
00:02:53
changes regardless of a debt sealing
00:02:55
crisis existing in the first place and
00:02:57
perhaps this debt sealing issue is a
00:02:59
reason reason for you to change sooner
00:03:01
than later so again if you had your
00:03:04
personal finances in order there's
00:03:07
nothing you need to change if you didn't
00:03:09
have them in order well you would have
00:03:11
needed to change your personal finances
00:03:13
regardless of a debt cealing crisis but
00:03:15
the debt ceiling might be that straw
00:03:16
that breaks the camels back so let's go
00:03:19
to an example let's say you are a
00:03:21
federal worker and you were essentially
00:03:24
one Congressional vote away from
00:03:26
temporarily losing your paycheck because
00:03:29
that's what would have happened here
00:03:30
right the whole debt cealing crisis it
00:03:32
has to do and we'll dive into this in a
00:03:34
second but it has to do with the idea of
00:03:36
does the federal government allow itself
00:03:38
to go further into debt and if it
00:03:40
doesn't allow itself to go further into
00:03:42
debt then they kind of stop all
00:03:44
operations until they figure out if
00:03:46
they're going to go further into debt
00:03:48
and stopping all operations means well
00:03:50
some people aren't going to get paid so
00:03:52
if you're one of those people that
00:03:53
wasn't going to get paid let's say that
00:03:55
you don't really have much of an
00:03:57
emergency fund you were staring down the
00:04:00
barrel right you were on the verge of
00:04:02
being in trouble you would have no
00:04:04
paycheck coming in you'd have no
00:04:06
emergency fund to cover next month's
00:04:08
expenses what exactly were you going to
00:04:10
do so there's a very good reason there
00:04:12
to build up your emergency fund we've
00:04:15
talked about it before here on the best
00:04:16
interest podcast written about it on the
00:04:18
best interest blog how much of an
00:04:19
emergency fund do you need it depends
00:04:22
different people will tell you different
00:04:23
things my range of advice is 3 to 12
00:04:28
months of living expenses
00:04:30
and usually the shorter end of that
00:04:32
range is for someone who doesn't mind a
00:04:35
little bit of risk in their lives but
00:04:37
also someone who feels very secure in
00:04:39
their job security if if there's not
00:04:41
much risk of you getting fired or if you
00:04:44
were to say lose your job if you believe
00:04:46
that you're quickly
00:04:47
rehirable well then you can afford to
00:04:49
have a smaller emergency fund but with
00:04:51
someone who either is a little less
00:04:54
secure in their job or has a very say
00:04:57
unique job that it might take them a
00:04:58
long time to get rehired they might want
00:05:01
to be closer to that 12-month emergency
00:05:03
fund I'm working with people in my day
00:05:05
job who let's say you're a high level
00:05:07
executive you were brought in to run
00:05:09
this company and that's really what you
00:05:11
want to do with your life you want to be
00:05:13
in charge and there's only so many
00:05:15
positions like that out there right a
00:05:17
limited number of positions if for some
00:05:20
unfortunate reason you were to lose your
00:05:22
job you might not want to just jump at
00:05:25
the first opportunity that comes your
00:05:26
way you want to take your time you want
00:05:28
to see what opportunities are out there
00:05:30
you want to evaluate the pros and cons
00:05:32
of everything you're going to need time
00:05:34
to do that you're going to need time to
00:05:36
travel for interviews to to evaluate
00:05:39
different positions All That Jazz you
00:05:40
get what I'm saying that might not be
00:05:42
something you can do in three months you
00:05:44
might need six or 9 or 12 months maybe
00:05:47
even longer and if you find yourself in
00:05:48
that position you're going to want an
00:05:50
emergency fund that that matches that
00:05:53
need in your life so yes this death
00:05:56
sealing crisis for some people might
00:05:58
have highlighted their need for for an
00:05:59
emergency fund similarly like we can
00:06:02
think about the investing side of the
00:06:04
world the debt ceiling it certainly
00:06:07
shook up the bond World a little bit and
00:06:09
whenever anything gets shaken up in the
00:06:11
bond World it ripples its way into the
00:06:13
stock market we could dive into details
00:06:15
there long story short because the
00:06:17
treasury is involved here and the
00:06:19
treasury they're the ones who issue
00:06:21
treasury bills and notes and bonds and
00:06:24
when you hold a treasury bill note or
00:06:25
Bond you expect to get
00:06:27
repaid makes sense right well if the
00:06:30
treasury is no longer really paying back
00:06:33
its debts because there's something
00:06:34
going on with the debt ceiling it's
00:06:36
going to affect at least in the short
00:06:38
term the value of Treasury in this case
00:06:41
treasury bills treasury bills are the
00:06:44
shortest ones okay so the value of
00:06:46
treasury bills we saw in the treasury
00:06:48
markets in late May and early June we
00:06:51
saw Bill prices Rippling changing pretty
00:06:54
quickly yeah that infiltrated its way
00:06:56
into the stock market a little bit there
00:06:57
was some volatility definitely some
00:07:00
uncertainty now if that uncertainty over
00:07:02
that two-e time span drove you up the
00:07:05
wall that might be a sign that your
00:07:08
investment allocation isn't quite right
00:07:11
or similarly if that volatility over
00:07:13
that two-e time span if it materially
00:07:16
damaged your wealth in some irreversible
00:07:18
long-term way that might be a sign that
00:07:21
your portfolio wasn't constructed
00:07:23
correctly but again that isn't unique to
00:07:26
the debt sealing crisis my my point is
00:07:29
whether there was a debt sealing crisis
00:07:31
or not the fact that your portfolio
00:07:34
suffered damage in such a short period
00:07:36
of time IR reversible damage or the fact
00:07:38
that you were stressed out in such a
00:07:40
short period of time over something that
00:07:41
happened in your portfolio that is a
00:07:44
sign that your portfolio probably wasn't
00:07:46
in the right spot in the first
00:07:48
place because debt ceiling crises they
00:07:51
happen natural disasters happen
00:07:54
political turmoil happens sometimes
00:07:56
there are Wars in foreign countries that
00:07:59
happen like this Ukraine Russia war that
00:08:01
we saw really rocked the investing World
00:08:04
in early 2022 of course it's a terrible
00:08:07
humanitarian thing but these things
00:08:10
happen life happens the world has some
00:08:12
chaos in it it always has and it always
00:08:15
will and if that chaos sometimes it's
00:08:18
short-term sometime it even stretches
00:08:19
out to years but if that chaos affects
00:08:22
the market in some way and therefore
00:08:24
affects your portfolio creates some
00:08:26
volatility and ends up making your
00:08:28
stomach upset that you lose sleep at
00:08:30
night because of the chaos in the world
00:08:31
and the volatility in your portfolio
00:08:34
that might be a sign that your portfolio
00:08:36
is a little too volatile it's a little
00:08:38
too risk- heavy and maybe you need to be
00:08:41
in something else that cealing crises
00:08:44
happen this one might have been the one
00:08:46
that showed you that your portfolio
00:08:49
isn't quite in the right place the thing
00:08:51
that I want you guys to take away from
00:08:52
today is that your portfolio wasn't in
00:08:55
the right place regardless of the debt
00:08:58
cealing crisis Happ happening for most
00:09:01
people if your emergency fund was in
00:09:03
place if you had a balanced portfolio
00:09:06
based on your personal timelines and
00:09:09
goals and based on your personal risk
00:09:11
tolerance then this debt cealing crisis
00:09:13
really had no effect on you at all and
00:09:17
there's nothing that you need to
00:09:18
[Music]
00:09:20
[Applause]
00:09:21
[Music]
00:09:26
change all right let's dive into to
00:09:29
exactly what happened with the debt
00:09:31
sealing crisis why it happened we're
00:09:33
going to talk a little bit about
00:09:34
government and politics a little bit of
00:09:36
Economics it's not really so much
00:09:38
personal finance but if you care about
00:09:41
the way that your little corner of the
00:09:44
personal finance and investing World
00:09:46
fits in with a bigger picture this is
00:09:48
going to be an awesome podcast for you
00:09:50
that's one thing that I do care about
00:09:51
I'm I'm really interested to know how my
00:09:55
little budget and my little 401k and my
00:09:57
little Roth IRA how do they fit into the
00:10:00
greater economy how do they fit into the
00:10:02
way that governments work because these
00:10:04
things in the world they they do affect
00:10:06
you it doesn't mean that you need to
00:10:07
change what you're doing as we just went
00:10:09
over but they do affect us so let's
00:10:12
let's talk about it government is a bit
00:10:14
like a business at least that's the way
00:10:16
that I think about it now that business
00:10:18
it aims to provide services and
00:10:20
infrastructure that we all
00:10:23
use this could go down a pretty
00:10:25
interesting political science rabbit
00:10:26
hole that I'm vastly unqualified to talk
00:10:29
about but the idea is are there some
00:10:32
things in this world that we should all
00:10:34
pitch in on because we all or most of us
00:10:37
end up using that that's essentially the
00:10:39
essence of government or that's one of
00:10:40
the ways that I think about it and you
00:10:42
have some people on the political
00:10:43
Spectrum who say no absolutely not
00:10:46
everything should be independently owned
00:10:48
and operated and run and if you want to
00:10:51
use that thing you pay for it and if you
00:10:52
don't want to use it you don't pay for
00:10:54
it if you don't know what I'm talking
00:10:56
about that tends to be maybe a more
00:10:57
libertarian or or right-wing
00:11:00
conservative view this idea of a smaller
00:11:02
government a government that does less
00:11:05
putting more responsibility on
00:11:07
individual people to build their own
00:11:09
things to maintain their own things to
00:11:10
run their own things etc etc you know
00:11:12
private schools instead of public
00:11:14
schools but then on the other end of the
00:11:17
spectrum on say the left or the liberal
00:11:19
end of the spectrum are thoughts that
00:11:22
yeah there are some things that
00:11:23
everybody uses and so everybody should
00:11:25
pitch in we should be taxed we're going
00:11:28
to get to that and then we we all pay
00:11:30
for it we all use it and government this
00:11:33
this quote unquote independent body or
00:11:35
this body that we vote in maybe there
00:11:37
are some appointed positions they're the
00:11:39
ones who run and maintain these shared
00:11:43
resources so lots and lots of things in
00:11:46
our government we have you know schools
00:11:48
to educate us roads to transport
00:11:49
ourselves and our Goods many of those
00:11:52
things cost money and they combined for
00:11:54
the roughly $6.5
00:11:57
trillion us annual federal budget that's
00:12:00
what our budget was last year $6.5
00:12:02
trillion with a t and that's roughly
00:12:05
$220,000 per US citizen now any business
00:12:10
because remember the government is a bit
00:12:12
like a business their business is
00:12:14
providing the services and providing
00:12:15
this infrastructure to us businesses
00:12:17
need to make money somehow they don't
00:12:19
necessarily need to make profit but they
00:12:22
need to intake revenue and governments
00:12:24
of course they collect that Revenue via
00:12:26
taxation that's payroll taxes sales
00:12:28
taxes corporate taxes the taxes that we
00:12:30
all pay you guys get it now government
00:12:33
though it's kind of a unique business
00:12:35
because well one we can't really opt out
00:12:38
of being the government's customers
00:12:40
unless we choose to move to a different
00:12:41
city a different state a different
00:12:43
country we can choose to exit the
00:12:45
government that we're in but as long as
00:12:46
we're here you're part of it we can
00:12:49
partake in government though through
00:12:51
voting or through running for office we
00:12:53
can aim to change the laws for Revenue
00:12:56
collection and spending if we want to
00:12:58
that really is probably the biggest
00:12:59
debate on a recurring basis in
00:13:01
government how many taxes how much tax
00:13:03
should we collect and then what should
00:13:05
we spend it on that's one of the biggest
00:13:07
roles of any elected official how much
00:13:09
money is the government going to spend
00:13:11
what are we spending it on and how will
00:13:13
that affect John Q Public's tax bill so
00:13:16
that brings us to today's topic the debt
00:13:19
ceiling now the topic has been all over
00:13:21
the news let's try to explain the whole
00:13:23
debt sealing drama in simple terms now
00:13:25
first I'm going to address four somewhat
00:13:27
related questions what is the debt
00:13:29
ceiling why does the debt ceiling exist
00:13:32
why are we in debt in the first place
00:13:35
and how does this debt continue to grow
00:13:38
so the US government is in debt lots of
00:13:40
debt we'll talk a little bit later about
00:13:42
why that's not ideal but also we'll talk
00:13:44
about why it's not as bad as if you were
00:13:47
in debt in your household right now the
00:13:50
US is approaching 32 trillion that's
00:13:53
trillion with the T $ 32 trillion doll
00:13:55
of debt and it's only going to go up at
00:13:58
least for the near term it's only going
00:14:01
to go up we're in debt because well at
00:14:04
least for each of the last 22 years the
00:14:07
federal government has spent more money
00:14:09
on the schools on its roads and on lots
00:14:11
and lots of other things it's spent more
00:14:13
money than it has collected in taxes we
00:14:15
operated in other words in an annual
00:14:17
deficit the reason why I mentioned 22
00:14:19
years earlier is because there were some
00:14:21
times in the late 2000s or sorry the
00:14:24
late '90s early 2000s when the US
00:14:26
government operated at an annual Sur
00:14:28
plus it was still in debt but the debt
00:14:31
was shrinking now for the last 22 years
00:14:34
not only have we been in debt but the
00:14:36
debt has been growing year over year
00:14:38
over year we've been operating at an
00:14:40
annual deficit and to make up the
00:14:42
difference between the tax that were
00:14:44
collecting and the money that we're
00:14:45
spending the government has borrowed
00:14:48
that money we've gone into debt the debt
00:14:50
has now grown $32
00:14:53
trillion well there comes a question
00:14:55
then can the government go further and
00:14:57
further and further into into debt and
00:14:59
the answer there is not exactly Congress
00:15:02
determines our Congress determines they
00:15:05
vote for how far into debt were allowed
00:15:07
to go that limit is called ding ding
00:15:10
ding the debt ceiling okay it was first
00:15:13
enacted in 1941 and the first debt
00:15:16
ceiling was set at 65 billion with a B
00:15:20
$65 billion but as our country grew and
00:15:24
as our country borrowed more Congress
00:15:26
has voted time after time to raise the
00:15:28
debt ceiling in fact there have been
00:15:30
more than 90 unique Congressional votes
00:15:32
to raise the debt ceiling but that vote
00:15:34
isn't always easy some politicians they
00:15:37
look at the situation and they think
00:15:40
well aren't we in enough debt already
00:15:42
why do we continue to operate at an
00:15:43
annual deficit why are we spending more
00:15:45
than we're collecting in taxes if we let
00:15:48
this thing go on forever surely we'll
00:15:50
get into trouble at some point you can't
00:15:52
just go into debt forever and then they
00:15:54
conclude and they say well I refuse to
00:15:57
continue to enable this kind of Reckless
00:16:00
financial behavior and trust me I
00:16:04
understand that logic we'll get into a
00:16:06
little bit later again we we'll talk
00:16:08
about why that US debt isn't quite the
00:16:10
same as your household debt and when
00:16:12
politicians try to frame it that way
00:16:14
they're not quite being honest but at
00:16:16
the same time I do think there's a lot
00:16:18
of Merit in our government instead of
00:16:21
operating in an annual deficit trying to
00:16:23
operate at a surplus or at the very
00:16:25
least just trying to break even if
00:16:27
you're only collecting 4 trillion in
00:16:29
taxes maybe you should only spend 4
00:16:32
trillion that year but anyway when
00:16:34
enough politicians are thinking that way
00:16:37
when they're thinking about that they
00:16:38
don't want to continue enabling this bad
00:16:41
financial behavior some form of a debt
00:16:44
ciling standoff occurs because the
00:16:47
treasury says hey guys we need to raise
00:16:49
the debt ceiling in order to go further
00:16:51
into debt and politicians will say no
00:16:54
we're not going to vote for it you're
00:16:56
spending too much we're sick of it
00:16:59
so without permission to go further into
00:17:01
debt the federal government would be
00:17:03
forced to stop most of its daily
00:17:05
operations and that was the risk that we
00:17:08
were facing here in 2023 it's not the
00:17:10
first time we've seen such a standoff it
00:17:12
happened in 1995 1996 and that resulted
00:17:16
in the federal government shutting down
00:17:17
twice for 5 and 21 days respectively it
00:17:21
happened in 2011 although the government
00:17:22
didn't shut down however it was
00:17:25
important to note that us sovereign
00:17:27
creditworthiness
00:17:29
was downgraded and the stock market took
00:17:30
a significant hit okay what does
00:17:32
sovereign creditworthiness mean well it
00:17:34
means that other governments and other
00:17:36
bodies and Pension funds and investors
00:17:39
all over the world they look at the US
00:17:41
government and they say how good of a
00:17:43
creditor is the US or or rather how good
00:17:47
is the us at paying us back if we give
00:17:49
them credit if we lend to the US
00:17:52
government are they going to pay us back
00:17:54
on time now historically the answer has
00:17:56
always been yes the US government is
00:17:58
still looked at as one of the the best
00:18:01
bodies to lend to anywhere on Earth but
00:18:03
in 2011 that was temporarily like it
00:18:06
came into question and the US debt was
00:18:08
was downgraded and that affected
00:18:10
investment markets so in summary the
00:18:14
debt seiling even though it didn't cause
00:18:15
the government to shut down those debt
00:18:17
sealing issues did cause ripples
00:18:19
throughout the financial World there was
00:18:21
another standoff in 2013 resulting in a
00:18:24
16-day shutdown there was another
00:18:26
standoff back in 2021 it did not result
00:18:29
in a shutdown a government shutdown and
00:18:31
then we had our debt cealing standoff
00:18:33
here in 2023 so the next common question
00:18:36
where do politicians stand we already
00:18:38
went into that a little bit fiscally
00:18:40
conservative politicians usually on the
00:18:43
right-wing Republican party they're
00:18:45
typically opposed to raising the debt
00:18:47
ceiling or if anyone were to be opposed
00:18:49
to raising the debt ceiling usually it
00:18:51
would come from the fiscally
00:18:53
conservative politicians they in general
00:18:55
want to see less government spending for
00:18:58
many reasons and they see government
00:19:00
overspending as a root cause of US debt
00:19:02
in the first place which I think makes
00:19:04
sense US government spending is the
00:19:06
cause of of our debt that or a lack of
00:19:09
Taxation that said no one really wants
00:19:11
to raise taxes right that's actually
00:19:14
taxation was one of the things on the
00:19:16
negotiating table here in 2023 between
00:19:18
speaker McCarthy and President Joe Biden
00:19:21
was the idea of well if we want to solve
00:19:23
some of our debt issues we could just
00:19:25
raise taxes now generally right-wing
00:19:28
politicians are against taxes they want
00:19:31
lower taxes and also a smaller
00:19:33
government so the idea of raising taxes
00:19:36
kind of didn't didn't was quickly
00:19:37
chopped it hit the chopping block pretty
00:19:40
quickly off negotiating table but anyway
00:19:43
fiscally conservative politicians
00:19:44
they're the ones who see raising the
00:19:46
debt ceiling as further enabling a
00:19:48
behavior that they want to see
00:19:52
changed next question how can we allow
00:19:55
this debt to continue to grow and at the
00:19:58
same same time we should answer how the
00:20:00
US debt is fundamentally different than
00:20:03
household debt so the US debt is not
00:20:05
like your debt government spending is
00:20:08
not like your spending and there are a
00:20:10
few examples to show and explain this
00:20:13
the first one government spending is
00:20:15
hugely stimulative for the economy as
00:20:19
such when the government reduces its
00:20:20
spending employment and wages fall both
00:20:23
for the public sector so that's nurses
00:20:24
and teachers police officers but also
00:20:27
for sectors that you know private sector
00:20:29
companies that provide goods and
00:20:31
services to government an example there
00:20:33
might be construction so reductions in
00:20:35
government spending when the econ
00:20:37
especially when the economy is already
00:20:39
underperforming it can actually lead to
00:20:42
higher levels of public debt and lower
00:20:44
growth it can make the situation worse
00:20:47
in other words and that's not really
00:20:49
something that would happen in your in
00:20:50
your household if you reduce your
00:20:53
personal spending to get yourself out of
00:20:55
debt it's not also going to reduce your
00:20:58
income at your job at least most of the
00:21:01
time for most jobs right your salary is
00:21:03
your salary and your spending is your
00:21:05
spending and there's really not too much
00:21:07
interaction between the two as far as
00:21:09
your spending somehow influencing your
00:21:12
salary but with the government that's
00:21:14
what what we're saying here is that's
00:21:15
not really true when the government
00:21:17
spends it often stimulates the economy
00:21:20
in a positive way and that creates tax
00:21:22
dollars for the government to then
00:21:23
collect
00:21:24
later that's fundamentally different
00:21:26
from the way your household works
00:21:28
another important point is that unlike a
00:21:30
household the government has the
00:21:33
powerful backing of a central bank
00:21:35
behind it if the government and the
00:21:37
Central Bank cooperate the central bank
00:21:39
can help lower interest rates or
00:21:41
borrowing costs against the government's
00:21:44
debt and that's that's pretty good if if
00:21:47
you're going to go into $32 trillion of
00:21:49
debt it's nice to have a friend who can
00:21:51
help control the interest rate of that
00:21:53
debt and speaking of interest rates many
00:21:55
governments including the US government
00:21:57
it has invested vors every day waiting
00:22:00
to lend them money at relatively
00:22:03
reasonable rates every time that a bond
00:22:06
is issued at well right now at four or
00:22:09
5% that's someone lending their money to
00:22:12
the US government people are lined up
00:22:14
there's an auction every day of US
00:22:17
Treasury bonds people waiting to let the
00:22:19
US government borrow their money why
00:22:22
because the US government has reputation
00:22:23
of paying back those loans on time with
00:22:26
interest and people like the way that
00:22:28
sounds your household does not have that
00:22:31
you do not have people lined up at your
00:22:33
door waiting to lend you money at
00:22:35
reasonable rates if they're lined up at
00:22:37
your door to lend you money they're
00:22:38
going to lend it at unreasonable rates
00:22:41
so big difference between the US debt
00:22:44
and and your personal debt and
00:22:46
ultimately you know at the end of the
00:22:47
day the US government has the ability to
00:22:50
print its own currency now that would be
00:22:52
really bad if we printed our way out of
00:22:55
debt that would lead to rampant global
00:22:58
inflation so we don't really want to do
00:23:00
that at least not in the short term we
00:23:03
don't want to do it all at once but a
00:23:06
lot of our treasury bonds are long-term
00:23:08
20 30-year bonds and over the long run
00:23:12
that is essentially the plan of how
00:23:14
we're going to get out of debt inflation
00:23:16
is going to occur we know it's going to
00:23:18
occur there's nothing we can do to stop
00:23:20
it and it's not occurring simply because
00:23:21
we are printing money but in the long
00:23:24
run dollars will be devalued slowly but
00:23:27
Sur early and paying back debt becomes
00:23:29
easier and easier and easier that's a
00:23:31
little bit different than the way that
00:23:33
your household debt works at least most
00:23:35
of it maybe the one way that there is a
00:23:38
similarity speaking of 30-year loans is
00:23:41
uh a mortgage a mortgage in some way is
00:23:44
maybe the closest thing where we can tie
00:23:47
US debt to household debt because with a
00:23:49
mortgage I just got a 30-year mortgage
00:23:52
last month so I can speak to this
00:23:53
example I've got a couple thoughts there
00:23:56
one is I'm hoping that my career grow
00:23:59
over the next 30 Years and that's
00:24:01
similar to the way that the US is hoping
00:24:03
that its economy and therefore its tax
00:24:05
based grow over the next 30 Years but
00:24:08
also there's likely to be inflation over
00:24:10
the next 30 years and that will affect
00:24:13
my salary in a good way right you will
00:24:15
earn more dollars simply because
00:24:17
inflation is occurring but my debt
00:24:19
payment on my mortgage is fixed and
00:24:22
similarly the government's payment on
00:24:24
its debt is fixed it's a fixed rate debt
00:24:26
now the debt might be growing but each
00:24:28
individual bond has a fixed rate so the
00:24:30
government is banking on the fact that
00:24:32
it'll have more taxes and that inflation
00:24:35
will also Drive its tax base up over the
00:24:38
coming decades making today's loans
00:24:40
easier to
00:24:41
[Music]
00:24:47
repay so the next question we've already
00:24:50
kind of touched on it but it's a
00:24:51
question that I've heard quite a bit
00:24:52
over the last couple weeks is if the
00:24:54
government is in $32 trillion of debt
00:24:57
then who is lending them all this money
00:24:59
or who do we owe the $32 trillion back
00:25:02
to and the answer is tons of people
00:25:06
everybody well I shouldn't say everybody
00:25:08
but it's tons of people all over Earth
00:25:10
it's individuals institutions Pension
00:25:13
funds other governments anyone on Earth
00:25:15
who owns a US Government Bond or a bill
00:25:19
or a note is lending money to the US
00:25:21
government because as we've discussed on
00:25:23
the best interest before a bond is
00:25:25
nothing more than a loan when you buy a
00:25:27
bond you are loaning your money to
00:25:29
someone and in return they are promising
00:25:32
you interest payments and then a full
00:25:34
repayment at the end of the loan term
00:25:36
that's all a bond is every day the US
00:25:39
government issues Bonds in an auction
00:25:41
those bonds are gobbled up by Major
00:25:42
Banks and brokerage firms who then sell
00:25:44
them on the secondary Market all over
00:25:46
the world investing in US debt is big
00:25:49
big
00:25:50
business okay what would happen if the
00:25:53
debt ceiling wasn't raised well if it
00:25:56
wasn't raised a few things could Could
00:25:57
Happen some of them are immediate
00:25:59
effects and then some of them are
00:26:01
long-term Ripple effects some of the
00:26:04
immediate effects would be that the
00:26:05
federal government would likely shut
00:26:07
down until hopefully Congress is able to
00:26:10
find a solution in the short run most
00:26:13
federal jobs would be temporarily
00:26:15
furloughed and unpaid Federal contracts
00:26:18
would be paused and again that kind of
00:26:19
goes into that ripple effect of it's not
00:26:21
just public sector it's also private
00:26:23
sector because a lot of federal
00:26:25
contracts are given to private sector
00:26:27
contracts factors another kind of scary
00:26:30
thing that might happen is Social
00:26:31
Security payments and then Medicare or
00:26:33
Medicaid payments might be paused now
00:26:36
that's a way to piss off a generation of
00:26:38
baby boomers right there and you got to
00:26:41
believe that Congress would get their
00:26:42
ass in gear if they had millions of
00:26:45
people calling them saying where the
00:26:46
hell is my Social Security payment now
00:26:50
another thing that would happen a longer
00:26:51
term thing that would probably happen if
00:26:54
we weren't able to come to terms in this
00:26:55
debt sealing crisis although maybe it's
00:26:57
a short-term either way it would have
00:26:59
long-term ripples is that the US might
00:27:01
miss or delay its Bond repayments and
00:27:04
the US credit worthiness might get
00:27:06
downgraded again now we've already
00:27:08
talked about this a little bit US
00:27:09
Treasury bonds are considered the safest
00:27:11
investment in the world because
00:27:12
historically the US has always paid its
00:27:15
debts a debt sealing crisis could
00:27:18
potentially delay the speed at which the
00:27:20
US repays its debts and that's a problem
00:27:23
is the US still the safest investment in
00:27:26
the world at that point do investors
00:27:28
need to be more concerned now that could
00:27:30
have far-reaching and mostly detrimental
00:27:33
effects on bond markets and stock
00:27:34
markets all over the world Warren
00:27:36
Buffett talked about how interest rates
00:27:38
are Financial gravity affecting all
00:27:40
financial instruments everywhere on
00:27:42
Earth then another famous quote is when
00:27:45
the US economy sneezes the world catches
00:27:47
a cold in other words the US economy and
00:27:51
US debt us bonds they're vital drivers
00:27:54
and influencers on the rest of the
00:27:55
planet so if us bonds are questioned
00:27:59
surely that would affect the global
00:28:01
financial markets and the global economy
00:28:04
in most likely a negative way we will
00:28:07
conclude this episode with the update
00:28:10
that you might already know which is
00:28:11
that Congress suspended the debt ceiling
00:28:13
altogether until 2025 in years past or
00:28:16
or previous negotiations they raised the
00:28:19
debt ceiling to a specific dollar amount
00:28:21
but in this case they said eh we're
00:28:23
going to kick the can down the road
00:28:25
we'll talk about it again in a couple
00:28:26
years and so that's exactly what they're
00:28:28
going to
00:28:30
do thanks for tuning in to this episode
00:28:32
of the best interest podcast if you have
00:28:35
a question for Jesse to answer on a
00:28:36
future episode send him an email at
00:28:38
Jesse bestin interest. blog again that's
00:28:42
Jesse ATB bestin interest. blog did you
00:28:45
enjoy the show subscribe rate and review
00:28:48
the podcast wherever you listen this
00:28:50
helps others find the show and invest in
00:28:53
knowledge themselves and we really
00:28:55
appreciate it we'll catch you on the
00:28:56
next episode of the best interest
00:28:59
[Music]
00:29:01
podcast the best interest podcast is a
00:29:04
personal podcast meant for education and
00:29:06
entertainment it should not be taken as
00:29:08
Financial advice and is not prescriptive
00:29:10
of your financial
00:29:12
situation

Episode Highlights

  • Emergency Funds Matter
    The debt ceiling crisis highlighted the importance of having an emergency fund. Financial security can prevent panic during economic uncertainty.
    “Build up your emergency fund; it's crucial for financial stability.”
    @ 04m 15s
    January 29, 2024
  • Market Reactions to Debt Crises
    Debt ceiling crises can shake up financial markets, affecting both bonds and stocks. Investors need to be prepared for volatility during such times.
    “Your portfolio might not be in the right spot if market chaos affects your peace of mind.”
    @ 08m 36s
    January 29, 2024
  • Understanding the Debt Ceiling
    The debt ceiling is a limit set by Congress on how much debt the federal government can carry. It has been raised multiple times since its inception in 1941, reflecting the growing financial needs of the government.
    “The first debt ceiling was set at $65 billion.”
    @ 15m 13s
    January 29, 2024
  • Debt Ceiling Negotiations
    In 2023, Speaker McCarthy and President Biden discussed raising taxes to address debt issues.
    “Raising taxes hit the chopping block pretty quickly.”
    @ 19m 36s
    January 29, 2024
  • US Debt vs. Household Debt
    The US debt operates differently than personal debt, with government spending stimulating the economy.
    “Government spending is hugely stimulative for the economy.”
    @ 20m 15s
    January 29, 2024
  • Congress Suspends Debt Ceiling
    Congress suspended the debt ceiling until 2025, delaying further discussions.
    “They said eh, we’re going to kick the can down the road.”
    @ 28m 23s
    January 29, 2024

Episode Quotes

Key Moments

  • Emergency Fund Importance04:15
  • Market Volatility08:36
  • Debt Ceiling Explained13:19
  • Debt Ceiling Talks19:11
  • Government Spending20:10
  • Social Security Concerns26:36
  • Debt Suspension28:23

Words per Minute Over Time

Vibes Breakdown

Related Episodes

Podcast thumbnail
The Truth About the U.S. National Debt (And How It Impacts You Personally) - E102