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welcome to the best interest podcast
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where we believe Benjamin Franklin's
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advice that an investment in knowledge
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pays the best interest both in finances
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and in your life every episode teaches
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you personal finance and investing in
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simple terms now here's your host Jesse
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[Music]
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Kramer hello everybody and welcome to
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best interest podcast this is episode
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number 47 my name is Jesse Kramer got a
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pretty good one for you today I'm
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recording this on Friday December 30th
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2022 right before the new year and okay
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I know it's a little bit cliche there's
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a lot of content coming out right now
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that is 2022 year in review or 2023 look
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ahead 2023 predictions all that kind of
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stuff I'm not going to give you too many
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predictions about 2023 just because I'll
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be honest I think it's a little
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irresponsible to make Financial or
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invested predictions about 2023 but I am
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going to share with you some scientific
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facts some cool ideas that have to do
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with the way our brains work and
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specifically when it comes to stuff like
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habit formation and and sticking with
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our New Year's resolutions because a lot
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of New Year's resolutions are Financial
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related I wrote an article that had some
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cool ideas in it so I'm going to share
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those ideas with you today in case your
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New Year's resolution has a financial
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twist to it and I'm also going to share
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a couple unique things about 2022 it's
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not going to be the boring stuff at
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least I don't think it's too boring
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because a lot of you you've seen
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inflation in the headlines we know that
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you know the stock market was down but
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there are some pretty unique things
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about the way 2022 worked out behind us
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and at the same time there are
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definitely some Silver Linings at least
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that I'm taking from the market
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performance investing performance even
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the way my portfolio performed in 2022
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and these Silver Linings are keeping me
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optimistic about the way 2023 and really
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much further Beyond 2023 the way the
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future is going to unfold before us so
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without further Ado let's dive into
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today's
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episode all right so this first little
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bit of information comes from an article
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I wrote back in October the article is
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called nowhere to hide why 2022 is a
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uniquely bad investing year and there
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will be a link to this article in the
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show notes and I recommend you look at
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this article and also the next article
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because there are some important charts
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some visuals in these articles that
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really will help you understand what I'm
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talking about I'll do my best to
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describe the charts to help you
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understand what they look like but I I
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recommend you know when you have time
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take a look at these articles so that
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you can see the charts for
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themselves so bare markets are nothing
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new right bare markets are when a market
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is down 20% or more from its all-time
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high generally when people say bare
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markets they're referring to the stock
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market so bare markets and the stock
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market are nothing new friend of the
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best interest Ben Carlson he's been
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having a field day in 2022 covering bare
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Market history and then another friend
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of the blog Nick muli he wrote a great
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data packed bare Market article back in
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March that has been frequently
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referenced since I've been writing about
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bare markets all year investing experts
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they know a lot about bare markets
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history has been a great guide and we
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aren't really freaking out over the fact
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that the stock market is down 22% 20%
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18% depends on which index you're
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measuring and depends on which part of
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the year you were looking at the stock
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market that is a known risk and then
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this is a good lesson for anybody out
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there who's newer to stock market
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investing who's Unsure how to think
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about 2022 bare markets are a known risk
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they always happen they always will
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happen years like 2022 when it comes to
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the stock market are going to happen for
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the remainder of your investing career
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it's a known risk so to some extent I'm
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saying get used to it it's part of being
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a stock investor that said 2022 is a
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little different we've never seen a year
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we've never seen a bare market like this
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in both stocks and bonds okay the fact
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that it's happening to stocks and bonds
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in the same year the fact that both
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those asset classes are down as much as
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they are in the same year that is
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uniquely bad bonds are meant to be a
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lower risk and lower reward asset
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compared to stocks but most importantly
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bonds are quote unquote supposed to have
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little correlation to stocks so that's
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the mathematical underpinning to
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diversification Theory and portfolio
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design we don't expect and we don't want
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stocks and bonds to behave in the same
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manner over the same time period
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traditionally they they haven't been
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very correlated
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what that means so so just in case
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you're curious if you're if you're a bit
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nerdy right positive correlation means
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two things behave in the same manner at
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the same time negative correlation means
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that they behave in opposite manners and
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no correlation means really that one
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going up has no sort of influence on
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what the other one does so what we're
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used to seeing in general is that stocks
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and bonds have little to no correlation
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and there's a good chart in the in the
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article showing that and so I went back
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and I pulled stock and bond data from
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1950 to today I wanted to walk through
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history to see normal years so a normal
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year would just be I suppose an average
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year of stock and bond performance we're
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just how stocks and bonds performed in
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different years since 1950 and then
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compare them against 2022 but first an
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important point we should always
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remember we should never forget that
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stocks are inherently riskier than bonds
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and that stock investor demand higher
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returns because of that that's simple
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risk and reward and it ties back to the
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fact that Bond returns are generally
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lower risk and come with a guarantee
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right if you buy say a treasury bond
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from the US government right now you
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know Bond rates are somewhere three or
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4% you're guaranteed that 3 or 4% return
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that's pretty low risk that guarantee is
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low risk and so if you were to go out
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and invest in stocks right now you're
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taking a real risk that you could lose
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your money that a company might go out
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of business underneath you you need to
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demand a higher reward than that 3 or 4%
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so that's again it's getting into some
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of the nitty-gritty of investing but
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it's a good thing to keep in mind so
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since 1950 stocks have returned 11% per
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year bonds have only returned 6% per
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year and when we compound those returns
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over 72 years we do see an enormous
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difference so $1 invested in the S&P 500
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1950 has grown to
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$2,180 today $1 grows to over 2,000 that
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same $1 in bonds has grown to about $70
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so would you rather have $2,000 or $70
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it's not a trick question so then a good
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question should come up in your head why
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would we own any bonds then right why
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own any bonds if they've underperformed
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stocks so much well there's actually a
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pretty simple answer so I quote Howard
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Marks here Howard marks very famous
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investor quote we have to practice
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defensive investing since many of the
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outcomes are likely to go against us
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it's more important to ensure survival
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under negative outcomes than it is to
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guarantee maximum returns under
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favorable ones end of quote so we want
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to avoid fearful scenarios where we're
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forced to sell to survive we want to
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avoid those scenarios stocks do provide
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long-term returns and bonds bonds
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provide some balast so that our
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portfolio is never in some dire
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situation where we feel forced to sell
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okay so a balance of the two a balance
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of stocks and bonds can provide you with
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enough long-term returns to meet your
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financial goals but also enough
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stability so that you won't puke along
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the way so now I'm going to take a look
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at some individual years so 1966 for
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example and this is going back again
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there are some charts in the article to
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show you what I'm talking about here
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1966 shows how a conservative portfolio
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prevents large draw Downs so if you had
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held 100% stocks in 1966 you would have
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lost about 10% of your money but if you
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had held a 6040 portfolio you only would
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have lost about 5% of your money if You'
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held all bonds well Bonds were had about
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a 0% return that year so the stocks lost
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10% bonds lost zero and then in 2008
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great financial crisis so the stock
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market dropped about 363 37% in 2008
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very bad bonds actually went up bonds
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gained about 8% if you had had a 6040
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portfolio 60% stocks 40% bonds your
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portfolio would have dropped 18 or 19%
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it's not great no one wants to drop 18
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or 19% but that's better than losing 37%
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which is what the all stock portfolio
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did however let's face facts most years
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the stock market is up and bonds tend to
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drag portfolio performance during those
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years so again I just picked a few years
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in our timeline 1996 stocks were up 22
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23% Bonds were only up 4% so if you had
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a 6040 portfolio you would have gained
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15% that's nice but your friends at all
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stocks they gained 23% that's even nicer
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2017 is another example stocks were up
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21% Bonds were only up about
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6% then again we've seen some years with
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both stocks and bonds down right that's
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the big thing that we're seeing this
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year in 2022 but it doesn't happen too
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often nor is it too severe it happened
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for example in 1969 and again in 2018
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but in each of those years a balanced
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6040 portfolio was only down about 5%
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it's not that bad okay losing money is
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never fun but being down 5% in a
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balanced portfolio isn't that bad 2022
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however this year was disturbingly
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different not only has there been no
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place to hide but it's been pouring rain
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on us so even conservative investors are
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getting soaked across the risk Spectrum
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from all stocks to all bonds portfolios
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are down somewhere from 15 to
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25% that fact is unprecedented that
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makes 2022 a very different and a very
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unique year so again as of the the
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writing of this article stocks were down
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about 22% Bonds were down
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167% and then a great reference and if
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you're going to go to this article to
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find one chart I would recommend the
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chart about 3/4 2/3 of the way down that
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shows all these different years I've
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talked about all laid out on the same
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graph and one year is going to stick out
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like a sore Thum because not only does
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it have some negative returns but it has
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very negative returns all across the
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risk Spectrum so 2022 by far the worst
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year for stock Bond portfolio since 1950
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we know as we talked about before that
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stocks can and will drop 20% or more in
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year but the fact that bonds are also
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down 15% is different and then a friend
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of the blog sha from fighting fire with
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fire he sent me a great graphic from
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Vanguard that shows this data in in a
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slightly different form about just how
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unique and bad 2022 is so now the real
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question is what should you do about it
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what should you do about the fact that
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2022 was such a bad year question one
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should you stop investing since stocks
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and bonds are both down should you just
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jump ship Al together answer no
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definitely not remember the true cost of
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long-term investing is
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psychological think about that again the
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true cost of long-term investing is
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psychological it hurts to see your
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portfolio drop I totally get that my
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portfolio is down a lot this year but
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long-term success comes from enduring
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that psychological pain if you can
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leaning into it and invest more if you
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can what we've seen historically over
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the long run that is a phenomenal idea
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to do it's a phenomenal tactic a great
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strategy But first you have to deal with
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the short-term psychological
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pain next question should you sell your
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bonds it's an interesting question right
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the idea is well if bonds aren't doing
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their job why do I even own them well it
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is a good question the answer though is
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no you shouldn't sell your bonds to be
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honest with you it's too late for that
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anyway if you had a time machine and you
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could go back to the beginning of the
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year yes you should have sold your bonds
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but predicting the future is really hard
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and it's irresponsible usually for
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investing professionals even try to
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predict the future I know many people do
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but I'm not in favor of predicting the
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future instead I'm in favor of building
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a durable diverse portfolio that can
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survive any
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circumstance you know the leading
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indicator for future Bond returns is
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whatever the current interest rate is
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and if you understand bonds are very
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mathematical in nature right pay $1,000
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to buy a bond the bond is yielding 4%
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you're going to receive $40 per year
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because that's 4% of a th from now until
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the bond expires when the bond expires
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you're going to get your $ th000 back
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it's a very basic guaranteed
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mathematical
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calculation so having Bond rates right
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now at 4% is a strong signal that you'll
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achieve 4% Returns on near future bonds
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4% returns over the next few years
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that's not too bad I mean this year we
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lost what 15% but bonds over the coming
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years are expected mathematically to
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perform better than they did in 2022 so
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next question so Jesse you're telling me
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I should just sit here and just take it
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I mean that's not really advice is it oh
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it's a good question again but here's my
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answer remember what John Bowell
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famously said quote my rule and it's
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only good about 99% of the time so I
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have to be careful here when these
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crises come along the best rule you can
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possibly follow is not don't stand there
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do something but instead don't do
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something stand there end quote that's
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right you heard him right don't do
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something stand there that's the right
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advice it feels almost inhuman I know
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because we are biologically wired for
00:14:48
Action when something goes wrong in our
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lives we want to do something right
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adrenaline starts pumping fight or
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flight you either stand there and fight
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or you run either way you're doing
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something but what John bille is saying
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is that in times of trouble actually you
00:15:04
want to not do anything at all you want
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to just stand there and let the trouble
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pass you by it's actually now that I
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think about it it's kind of like that
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one quote from Dune if you if you know
00:15:13
what I'm talking about there's this
00:15:15
famous quote about letting the fear flow
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through you when the fear is gone you'll
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remain standing there that's basically
00:15:22
what you want to do with your Investment
00:15:23
Portfolio so you can consider doing
00:15:26
something before you file your taxes
00:15:27
like tax loss harvesting or rebalancing
00:15:30
your portfolio but you should not
00:15:32
consider abandoning your long-term
00:15:34
investing plan that's the difference
00:15:36
between an emotional investor who reacts
00:15:38
their gut and a rational investor who
00:15:40
follows logical rules your gut wants to
00:15:43
end the pain to do something it's
00:15:45
totally understandable but logic
00:15:49
intelligence that suggests that you do
00:15:51
something otherwise so will you succumb
00:15:54
to your gut or will you listen to the
00:15:56
combined logic of many investors far
00:15:59
wiser than me or you personally I'm
00:16:01
listening to those Wise Guys so 22 it
00:16:04
was a uniquely bad year it's
00:16:07
understandable to feel glum about it but
00:16:09
you don't need a uniquely special
00:16:11
reaction stay the course just keep
00:16:13
buying let the markets in your portfolio
00:16:15
recover in the long
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[Music]
00:16:24
run okay let's make 2022 feel a little
00:16:28
bit better but first in order to get
00:16:31
there we do have to start with some some
00:16:33
more unfortunate news if you started
00:16:35
investing in the S&P 500 five years ago
00:16:39
so that would be what at the beginning
00:16:42
of
00:16:43
2018 2018 2019 2020 21 and 22 if you had
00:16:47
started investing in the S&P 500 at the
00:16:50
beginning of
00:16:51
2018 this year 2022 has erased all of
00:16:56
the gains you've ever earned okay
00:16:58
there's an article Link in the show
00:17:00
notes you know the deal there's a chart
00:17:02
in the article that shows a portfolio
00:17:04
that's been dollar cost averaging into
00:17:06
the S&P 500 since the beginning of
00:17:09
2018 covid caused a small speed bump in
00:17:12
this portfolio's performance but the
00:17:14
market quickly Shrugged Co off by late
00:17:17
2021 after four years of investing this
00:17:20
particular investor would have been up
00:17:22
80% over four years or about a
00:17:25
16% compound average growth rate
00:17:28
internal rate of return however you want
00:17:30
to think about it 16% per year over four
00:17:32
years that's awesome but one year later
00:17:35
today they've lost all their returns
00:17:38
right maybe the money they've invested
00:17:40
in 2018 was still up the money from 2019
00:17:43
was still probably up but a lot of the
00:17:45
money they invested in 2020 or 2021 and
00:17:48
all the money they invested in 2022 is
00:17:50
now negative on total so their portfolio
00:17:52
has returned essentially 0% for five
00:17:55
straight years stocks 0% % five straight
00:17:59
years ouch and yes zero return is a lame
00:18:03
result and it's especially painful after
00:18:06
tasting that sweet sweet nectar of 80%
00:18:09
returns just one year ago everything is
00:18:12
relative especially in our minds and
00:18:15
humans innately compare current
00:18:17
conditions against the past that's just
00:18:19
how we roll but now it's time to learn
00:18:21
an important lesson you know one of the
00:18:23
maxims here on the best interest is when
00:18:26
in doubt zoom out hard as zooming out
00:18:29
might be and the lesson here is that
00:18:31
stocks are not a five-year
00:18:35
investment okay stocks are not a
00:18:38
fiveyear investment preferably stocks
00:18:41
are a
00:18:42
multi-decade investment we need to zoom
00:18:45
out to that time scale and sure
00:18:48
sometimes even multiple decades fall
00:18:50
short of expectations you know we've
00:18:51
seen multiple 20year periods in stock
00:18:54
market history so this is going back to
00:18:56
1871 now in the S&P 500 we've seen
00:18:59
multiple 20-year periods of zero return
00:19:03
they're not common but they happen Okay
00:19:06
when we go out to 30 and 40-year periods
00:19:09
that's where we start to see a more
00:19:11
steady far from guaranteed nothing's
00:19:14
ever guaranteed in the stock market but
00:19:16
a more steady reliable rate of return
00:19:18
that might be 5% 6% seven or even 8% per
00:19:22
year 10 years 5 years is not a long
00:19:26
enough period to see those returns on a
00:19:28
regular basis so personally I'm still
00:19:31
buying stocks as part of my retirement
00:19:34
portfolio because I have more than 23
00:19:37
years to age 55 before I can possibly
00:19:40
sell a single stock from one of my
00:19:42
retirement portfolios over that period
00:19:45
of 23 years the historical odds are
00:19:48
definitely in my favor and when I turn
00:19:50
55 or more likely 59 a half I'll only
00:19:54
sell a portion of the stocks in my
00:19:56
portfolio right most of the stocks I'll
00:19:59
continue to own I'll only sell the
00:20:01
stocks that I need to fund that year of
00:20:04
retirement so really I'm sitting here at
00:20:07
age 32 today most of the stocks I own
00:20:10
I'll be selling after age 62 some of
00:20:13
them even after age 72 and for that
00:20:16
reason the stocks I own today will be
00:20:18
held for 30 40 50 years that's the
00:20:20
period that I'm thinking about and the
00:20:23
historical data over that period looks
00:20:25
phenomenal and again there are a series
00:20:28
of charts in this article showing the
00:20:31
S&P 500 rolling 20year returns 30 40 and
00:20:35
50e returns
00:20:37
annualized and yeah you see on some
00:20:39
20-year periods you see some near zero
00:20:42
returns but once you go out to 40 30 50
00:20:46
year periods you see no such thing as a
00:20:49
negative return so here you might be
00:20:53
listening to this podcast sitting in
00:20:55
2022 you're a younger investor or maybe
00:20:57
a newer investor or maybe you are an
00:21:00
experienced investor but your investment
00:21:02
gains have been crushed by 2022 if
00:21:05
you're a younger investor I mean there's
00:21:07
a very good chance that your Investment
00:21:08
Portfolio is now underwater you might
00:21:11
have less money in your portfolio than
00:21:14
if you had just put your money in a bank
00:21:15
account for the last three or four years
00:21:17
I see you I hear you I know that it
00:21:20
stinks it it really does stink that said
00:21:23
I'm zooming out and I'm actually feeling
00:21:25
good about zooming out because I know
00:21:28
when I zoom out to that multi- deade
00:21:30
timeline that the data that history is
00:21:33
on my side so I'm feeling pretty good
00:21:35
about
00:21:36
[Music]
00:21:43
it okay guys next idea this is a cold
00:21:46
lesson coming in from the Buffalo
00:21:48
blizzard I I'd love to know if you find
00:21:50
this interesting because part of this is
00:21:52
a little scientific and nerdy and
00:21:53
doesn't quite have to do with Finance
00:21:55
but there's definitely an interesting
00:21:57
investment idea in here my wife's family
00:22:00
they live in Clarence New York which is
00:22:02
about 10 miles east of downtown Buffalo
00:22:04
I mean it is Suburban Buffalo we sat in
00:22:07
their house over Christmas weekend as
00:22:09
four feet of snow and consistent 50 to
00:22:12
70 m per hour winds turned the world
00:22:14
around us into a snow globe I mean
00:22:16
literally Buffalo got crushed by the
00:22:18
storm but maybe not in the way that you
00:22:21
guys are thinking because many of you
00:22:23
are probably thinking well it's the snow
00:22:25
right the snow is the problem for fet of
00:22:28
snow sounds unimaginable how can Society
00:22:31
function under 4T of snow it's a totally
00:22:34
fair question but we're used to deep
00:22:36
snow in Upstate New York we've always
00:22:38
had these Lake Effect snowstorms it's a
00:22:41
pretty unique weather phenomenon
00:22:42
actually but long story short these
00:22:44
snowstorms blow in from Lake Erie and
00:22:46
Lake Ontario they tend to be very
00:22:48
isolated narrow bands of weather but
00:22:51
we're used to these Lake Effect
00:22:52
snowstorms that can dump multiple feet
00:22:54
of snow overnight and we've built
00:22:57
infrastructure to de deal with it we
00:22:58
have plows to clean the roads salt to
00:23:00
melt the ice snowblowers snow shovels
00:23:03
commercial snow clearing businesses to
00:23:06
keep our homes sidewalks driveways clear
00:23:09
so don't get me wrong fouret of snow is
00:23:11
still a ton but give us a day to clean
00:23:13
up and we'll be back to business as
00:23:15
usual that's just living in Upstate New
00:23:17
York but the substantial difference in
00:23:20
this Christmas blizzard of 2022 was the
00:23:23
wind weather stations All Over Buffalo
00:23:26
recorded hurricane force winds during
00:23:28
this storm and that wind changed
00:23:30
everything I've got a video I'll link to
00:23:32
this article in the show notes and you
00:23:34
can see a video maybe I'll just link the
00:23:36
video too because it's on YouTube I took
00:23:38
a video from my in-law's front yard just
00:23:40
a 30- second video on December 23rd so
00:23:42
you can see what the snow was like
00:23:45
because wind blown snow especially at
00:23:48
high wind speeds it turns visibility to
00:23:51
near zero so for hours we sat in my
00:23:54
in-law's living room we couldn't see the
00:23:56
house across the street from us it's
00:23:58
only 200t away we couldn't see the house
00:24:01
and maybe you're asking well what's the
00:24:03
problem with not seeing your neighbor's
00:24:04
house fair question the problem is roads
00:24:07
zero visibility cripples roads and in
00:24:10
turn cripples the community imagine
00:24:13
driving with this white frigid blanket
00:24:16
blindfold over your windshield and what
00:24:19
if that blindfold keeps up for hours or
00:24:21
days you can't keep driving in that
00:24:23
right it is so dangerous but you can't
00:24:26
stop driving either if you stop you'll
00:24:29
block the road for other drivers
00:24:31
assuming they even see your car in the
00:24:33
white out and it really is a white out
00:24:36
we couldn't see our neighbor's house 200
00:24:38
feet away from us sometimes visibility
00:24:40
got down to less than 10t it seemed and
00:24:44
when you're driving and your car has
00:24:46
speed as you're going into that white
00:24:48
out it is such a scary feeling so you're
00:24:50
crawling down the road you're barely
00:24:52
seeing anything as a snow depth grows
00:24:54
around you and unless you have a
00:24:56
powerful car or truck with snow tires
00:24:59
yes if you're not aware snow tires are a
00:25:01
thing you'll eventually lose traction
00:25:03
and then your car will get stuck your
00:25:05
choices then are to stay inside your car
00:25:09
which is a very scary proposition in
00:25:11
near zero temperatures or to abandon the
00:25:13
car and venture out into the blizzard on
00:25:16
foot either way your life is now in
00:25:19
danger snowplows they can't see either
00:25:22
they stay home until the weather clears
00:25:24
and so the road conditions stay bad and
00:25:27
grow worse right plows are your
00:25:29
lifeblood during a snowstorm they keep
00:25:31
the roads clear well In This Storm the
00:25:34
plows weren't out for 36 plus hours
00:25:37
after the snow started because the plows
00:25:39
couldn't see if you can't see you can't
00:25:41
drive 99% of Buffalo's problems were
00:25:44
directly tied to those Road issues even
00:25:46
the most important Vehicles ambulances
00:25:48
fire trucks utility trucks they couldn't
00:25:51
drive for the same reasons talked about
00:25:52
before too snowy zero visibility many
00:25:56
buffalonians including me to some extent
00:25:58
learned this face punching reminder of
00:26:01
the importance of functioning roads the
00:26:03
Romans it turns out we're on to
00:26:05
something I take roads for granted you
00:26:07
might take roads for granted too so I
00:26:09
implore you to learn this quick lesson
00:26:11
don't take roads for granted give them
00:26:13
the respect they deserve they're really
00:26:15
important for our society for our
00:26:17
communities but let's say you weren't on
00:26:19
the roads in Buffalo let's say you were
00:26:20
just snowed in at home you don't really
00:26:23
care about the roads you're warm wellfed
00:26:25
you got a 24 pack of Buffalo's favorite
00:26:27
La Bat Blue sitting in the garage well
00:26:30
despite your relative luxury you still
00:26:33
have major concerns what if the power
00:26:35
goes out it was really windy remember
00:26:38
utility trucks they can't reach your
00:26:39
house until the roads are clear my
00:26:41
in-laws their street wasn't plowed until
00:26:43
Sunday at 700 p.m. the storm started
00:26:46
Friday morning that's 60 hours are you
00:26:49
prepared for days of no electricity and
00:26:51
what if your home heat is all electric
00:26:54
what are you going to do when the when
00:26:55
the house temperature drops will you be
00:26:57
safe in that cold what about the pipes
00:27:00
in your house they'll freeze if you're
00:27:01
not careful it got down into the single
00:27:04
digits Fahrenheit on Friday and Saturday
00:27:06
that's really cold well what if your
00:27:08
medical needs require electricity right
00:27:11
what if you have a dialysis machine or
00:27:12
something to help you breathe and it
00:27:14
can't work because you don't have any
00:27:15
electricity what if you run out of food
00:27:18
all the stores are closed right Walmart
00:27:20
Wegman's are grocery store all the
00:27:22
stores are closed and even if they were
00:27:24
open how are you going to get there what
00:27:26
if you have a medical emercy
00:27:28
right some of the deaths as sad as they
00:27:30
are some of the deaths involved people
00:27:32
having medical emergencies a stroke a
00:27:34
heart attack and then the ambulances
00:27:36
simply could not reach them they
00:27:37
couldn't drive down the roads Erie
00:27:39
County which is where Buffalo sits they
00:27:41
announced during the worst of the storm
00:27:43
that emergency services were inoperable
00:27:46
you call 911 they say we're really sorry
00:27:49
we can't help no police no fire no
00:27:52
ambulance it was too unsafe for them to
00:27:54
drive I mean have you ever experienced
00:27:56
that kind of situation ation I
00:27:58
personally have not maybe I'm just lucky
00:28:00
but it's kind of scary so this blizzard
00:28:03
reminded all of Western New York how our
00:28:05
societal infrastructure is delicately
00:28:07
interlined we saw to borrow an investing
00:28:10
phrase the correlation of outcomes going
00:28:13
to one correlation what does that mean
00:28:16
well it's easiest to explain this idea
00:28:17
through examples so under normal
00:28:19
conditions the following ideas would
00:28:21
have nothing in common right they would
00:28:23
be completely unrelated ideas number one
00:28:26
the efficiency of a Wegman Supermarket
00:28:29
number two your great uncle's heart
00:28:31
condition number three the worn tires on
00:28:33
your Toyota number four the near empty
00:28:36
gas canister in your garage and number
00:28:38
five the old maple tree on the side of
00:28:40
the house what do those ideas have
00:28:42
anything to do with one another but when
00:28:44
a blizzard chokes out society's
00:28:45
infrastructure for 3 Days formerly
00:28:48
uncorrelated ideas can suddenly share a
00:28:51
remarkably similar and bad outcome a
00:28:54
tree branch falls in the wind knocks out
00:28:56
your power without power your fridge
00:28:58
dies and the food spoils just when you
00:29:01
need food most the local grocery store
00:29:03
shuts down you need to go find food so
00:29:05
you start to clear out your driveway of
00:29:07
all the snow well you run out of gas for
00:29:09
the snowblower you start shoveling then
00:29:11
your great uncle comes over to help he
00:29:13
has a heart attack while helping you
00:29:14
it's all too common 911 isn't even
00:29:17
responding so you drive your uncle great
00:29:19
uncle to the hospital but your car
00:29:22
doesn't come close to gripping the roads
00:29:24
things only get worse from there
00:29:26
everything go bad all at once and it's
00:29:29
all tied back or correlated to the same
00:29:31
blizzardy root cause financial markets
00:29:34
have a similar idea it's long been said
00:29:36
during times of Crisis correlations go
00:29:38
to one we saw it for example in March
00:29:40
2020 Co created an uncertain future and
00:29:43
investors everywhere ran for the exits
00:29:45
sell sell sell stocks bonds Commodities
00:29:48
everything fell in price all at once
00:29:51
driven lower by panicky selling pressure
00:29:54
why would weak Futures ever behave in
00:29:56
lockstep with Nvidia stock I mean
00:29:58
there's no causal relationship between
00:30:01
the two except for the cases where
00:30:03
there's a global crisis that Global
00:30:06
crisis by definition right it's Global
00:30:09
it ties everything together now some of
00:30:12
you might be thinking but Jesse this
00:30:14
Buffalo Blizzard or covid or any other
00:30:16
example you want to use these are Black
00:30:17
Swan events right nobody could have seen
00:30:20
them coming well I disagree you know
00:30:23
guys you can't plan for an alien
00:30:25
invasion that in my opinion is a true W
00:30:28
but a blizzard in Buffalo New York you
00:30:30
can plan and prepare for it now your
00:30:33
preparations might fall short right at a
00:30:35
certain storm intensity there's only so
00:30:37
much puny humans can do you can't keep
00:30:40
your street clear personally you can't
00:30:42
prevent a tree from falling on the power
00:30:44
lines down the street from you there's
00:30:46
only so much you can do to prepare but
00:30:48
you can do things like stockpile a
00:30:50
little extra gas for your snow plower
00:30:52
own a generator for emergency
00:30:54
electricity own a wood stove for
00:30:55
emergency warmth you can fill the pantry
00:30:58
with enough non- perishable Goods to
00:30:59
survive for a few days you can keep your
00:31:01
body reasonably fit just in case you
00:31:04
have to shovel snow for an afternoon
00:31:06
none of these things are easy some of
00:31:08
them are expensive but they are possible
00:31:10
to do you can plan a little more margin
00:31:13
than you typically need just in case
00:31:16
your storms are a little worse than
00:31:17
you're typically used to correlations
00:31:20
don't go to One Forever the snow and
00:31:23
wind will stop the roads will clear and
00:31:26
normal un correlated life will resume
00:31:29
but only if you survive to see it okay
00:31:32
margin helps you survive similarly you
00:31:35
can plan for Market crashes or even for
00:31:38
natural disasters that rattle entire
00:31:41
economies a constant theme over my past
00:31:43
four years on the best interests is that
00:31:46
diversification is the simplest and most
00:31:48
effective measure for preparing and
00:31:50
planning arket downturns yes there have
00:31:53
been periods in Market history where
00:31:54
correlations went to one and all Assets
00:31:57
in a diverse portfolio decreased at the
00:31:59
same time but much like a blizzard those
00:32:02
correlations eventually break now if you
00:32:05
have a concentrated portfolio or a
00:32:07
levered portfolio those portfolios die
00:32:11
in those kind of drastic scary scenarios
00:32:14
they don't live to see the other side
00:32:16
there's no recovery there's no thaw the
00:32:18
fact that the correlation eventually
00:32:20
breaks doesn't matter to them because
00:32:22
their portfolio is dead diverse
00:32:24
portfolios however bounce back even if
00:32:27
the diversification briefly breaks
00:32:29
during the worst of the disaster now
00:32:32
practically speaking the Buffalo
00:32:33
blizzard reminded me to beef up my
00:32:35
emergency prep at home to respect our
00:32:38
roads and to remember that mother nature
00:32:40
still calls the shots but for my
00:32:42
investing brain the blizzard was another
00:32:44
reminder about the power of
00:32:46
diversification preparing for bad times
00:32:48
before they inevitably occur that next
00:32:51
storm is always
00:32:56
coming
00:32:58
[Music]
00:33:01
all right last little stanza here guys
00:33:03
let's talk about 2023 let's look ahead
00:33:06
and specifically if you have a personal
00:33:08
finance related resolution i' I'd love
00:33:10
to hear about it actually feel free to
00:33:11
write in and share with me what your
00:33:13
resolution is let me know if there's
00:33:15
something I can do to help but in the
00:33:16
meantime here are nine I think
00:33:18
interesting cool scientific facts
00:33:20
scientific truths about the way our
00:33:22
brains work to help you improve your
00:33:24
finances and reach that personal finance
00:33:27
resolution I was listening to a recent
00:33:29
episode of Freakonomics where author
00:33:31
youv all knowah Harari said I he was
00:33:34
talking about other stuff but he said
00:33:35
quote viruses exist whether we believe
00:33:38
in them or not even if you don't accept
00:33:40
the stories about viruses they can still
00:33:43
kill you now okay guys this is not a
00:33:45
podcast about viruses but it is about
00:33:47
science or at least this section is
00:33:49
about science and namely I want to
00:33:50
describe these nine scientific facts
00:33:52
that can help you achieve your personal
00:33:54
finance goals whether in 2023 or or
00:33:57
Beyond so I hope you employ these ideas
00:33:59
because the science is true whether you
00:34:01
believe in it or not but the sooner you
00:34:03
believe in it the sooner you internalize
00:34:05
it the better off your personal finance
00:34:08
outcomes will be so the first one the
00:34:10
science says that stress is a killer and
00:34:13
finances are one of if not the greatest
00:34:16
causes of stress in our lives so the tip
00:34:18
here is simple do what you can to reduce
00:34:21
your financial stress and the remainder
00:34:23
of this list will help you do that
00:34:26
number two
00:34:27
invest in knowledge right the science
00:34:29
says that ongoing education is a gold
00:34:31
mine not only does new knowledge help
00:34:33
you make smarter decisions but education
00:34:36
provides the confidence you need to take
00:34:38
action so how do you educate yourself on
00:34:41
personal finance and investing well
00:34:43
here's my method every week I read
00:34:44
dozens of financial articles I listen to
00:34:46
10 plus Financial podcasts granted I'm a
00:34:49
nerd for this stuff I do it
00:34:51
professionally right I write about it I
00:34:53
podcast about it I work in wealth
00:34:55
management 40 hours a week I read books
00:34:58
I've written a book you don't have to be
00:35:00
as nerdy as me though guys okay and
00:35:02
again one quick example no pressure I
00:35:04
mean I share the best content I find
00:35:07
every week in my quick weekly email one
00:35:09
email about 6,000 people read it every
00:35:12
week I've got six seven links per email
00:35:15
of good information that I've learned
00:35:17
it's not a bad way I mean I think my
00:35:19
readers appreciate learning that way
00:35:21
there are other lists that do similar
00:35:23
things or other ways that people take a
00:35:25
bunch of info for around the internet
00:35:27
and still it down into quick little
00:35:29
emails I think that's a great way to
00:35:31
learn and i' I'd recommend you start if
00:35:32
you haven't started yet number three
00:35:35
measure first so the science says that
00:35:38
data-backed and datadriven decisions
00:35:41
lead to better outcomes than simple gut
00:35:43
feel so I don't write or talk about
00:35:46
budgeting that much anymore I spend most
00:35:48
of my time talking about investing but I
00:35:49
still maintain my budget on a weekly
00:35:51
basis measuring my spending measuring my
00:35:54
earning measuring how my accounts are
00:35:56
changing over time why well because you
00:35:59
can't manage what you don't measure the
00:36:02
best way to measure your personal
00:36:03
finances is with a budget personally I
00:36:06
use wab for my budgeting and if you go
00:36:08
to this article there's a link to wab
00:36:11
that you're more than welcome to use and
00:36:13
it helps you get two free months of the
00:36:16
app if you want to give it a shot but
00:36:18
there's also some counter science here
00:36:20
because whatever budgeting method you
00:36:22
use make sure it's simple enough that
00:36:24
you can maintain the habit of budgeting
00:36:27
it's better to be dedicated to a 90%
00:36:30
solution than it is to burn out on a
00:36:32
100% solution why AB is admittedly more
00:36:36
detailed than Some people prefer so
00:36:39
other ideas include mint.com using a
00:36:41
simple spreadsheet using a spreadsheet
00:36:43
that maybe someone else created there
00:36:45
are lots of budgeting spreadsheets
00:36:46
online some free some paid you could
00:36:49
probably use your Banks budgeting
00:36:51
solution a lot of banks have one or you
00:36:53
might just record stuff with pen and
00:36:54
paper tip number four is be smart SM SM
00:36:59
a t because the science says that if you
00:37:02
choose to set goals you're more likely
00:37:04
to reach them when you make them smart
00:37:07
goals and then if you don't set goals
00:37:09
instead you should focus on habits and
00:37:11
we'll get to that next but first let's
00:37:12
talk about smart goals the smart acronym
00:37:15
stands for specific measurable
00:37:18
attainable relevant and time based your
00:37:22
goals should tick each of those five
00:37:24
ideas so if your resolution is I want to
00:37:28
be better with my money well that's not
00:37:30
a smart goal it's not specific it's not
00:37:33
measurable and it's not time based same
00:37:37
goes to resolutions like I want to save
00:37:39
more or I want a budget those aren't
00:37:42
smart goals but if instead you said I
00:37:45
want to save $6,000 in my IRA in
00:37:48
2023 that is a smart goal or maybe your
00:37:52
goal could be I want to update my budget
00:37:54
on the second and fourth Sunday every
00:37:56
month in 2023 that's a smart goal next
00:38:01
number five has to do with habit
00:38:02
formation this one isn't super specific
00:38:05
but I do have some links to some
00:38:07
fantastic content if you want to learn
00:38:09
more right habits make or break us it is
00:38:12
almost scary the more you learn about it
00:38:15
how much we are lifted by our good
00:38:17
habits and how much we are dragged down
00:38:20
by our bad habits so I linked to a quick
00:38:23
article from farum street that covers
00:38:26
the Bas basics of habit formation really
00:38:28
really well now personal finance like
00:38:31
many New Year's resolution behaviors
00:38:33
they're largely a function of stopping
00:38:35
bad habits and forming good habits I
00:38:37
mean just think about health related
00:38:39
resolutions I want to stop eating like
00:38:41
crap and I want to start going to the
00:38:43
gym stop the bad habit begin a good one
00:38:46
now perhaps the most hyped book of 2021
00:38:50
was James clear's Atomic habits and it
00:38:53
was so hyped in fact that it turned me
00:38:55
off honestly I avoided the book I very
00:38:58
intentionally did not buy the book I
00:39:00
didn't read reviews about it only
00:39:02
because it was so over marketed in my
00:39:05
opinion that I just I just knew the book
00:39:07
would let me down but then a a good
00:39:10
friend a friend of the blog Craig gave
00:39:12
me the book I think it was for my
00:39:14
birthday and so now I have a copy and
00:39:16
I'm not going to not read it so of
00:39:17
course I read it and it was really good
00:39:20
it lived up to the hype so I think
00:39:22
Atomic habits is a great resource to
00:39:25
help you improve your habits
00:39:26
and then there's a good video podcast
00:39:28
from hubman Lab that again he's a a
00:39:31
neuroscientist and an opthalmologist and
00:39:34
he talks about the the science the the
00:39:36
biophysiology or whatever the term is of
00:39:39
habit formation so that's a good one
00:39:41
okay number six the next tip is to
00:39:43
understand the Fulfillment curve because
00:39:45
the science the psychological science
00:39:47
says that our happiness per dollar if
00:39:50
you want to think of that as a metric
00:39:52
our happiness per dollar eventually
00:39:54
plateaus more money doesn't doesn't make
00:39:56
us any happier and our happiness per
00:39:59
stuff eventually decreases meaning that
00:40:03
filling our lives with more and more
00:40:04
material Goods eventually makes us
00:40:07
actively unhappy this idea is called the
00:40:10
Fulfillment curve once I internalized
00:40:13
this idea I began viewing Personal
00:40:16
Finance in a completely different light
00:40:17
my goals are not make the most money nor
00:40:20
buy the most stuff I mean heck those
00:40:22
aren't smart goals anyway but instead my
00:40:25
goals are main maintain a lifestyle at x
00:40:28
per year because I believe that's where
00:40:30
my happiness plateaus I don't need any
00:40:32
more money to make me more happy and my
00:40:34
other goal is to actively avoid buying
00:40:37
too much stuff because I know that more
00:40:40
stuff leads to more stress so I try as
00:40:43
hard as I can to just avoid unnecessary
00:40:45
purchases and to regularly think about
00:40:47
what I'm surrounding myself with in my
00:40:49
house and if I need all that stuff so
00:40:52
the stress of buying too much stuff
00:40:54
where it's worth it usually presents
00:40:55
itself as thoughts like wow my house is
00:40:58
so messy or I've spent my hard-earned
00:41:01
money on this crap and I never even use
00:41:03
it what a waste those are stressful
00:41:05
thoughts so my recommendation to you
00:41:07
listening understand how the Fulfillment
00:41:10
curve fits into your
00:41:12
life number seven be automatic the
00:41:15
science says that the more decisions we
00:41:17
make the worst we are at decision making
00:41:20
our brains can only have so much
00:41:22
decision-making bandwidth this is called
00:41:24
decision fatigue so what do you do about
00:41:27
it you automate your financial decisions
00:41:29
set up automatic contributions to your
00:41:31
401k Ira brokerage account or any other
00:41:34
investing accounts set up automatic bill
00:41:36
pay although there is an exception in my
00:41:39
opinion you don't want to automate bills
00:41:41
where you might want or need to
00:41:42
negotiate or argue a Bill's amount in
00:41:45
the future because you don't want to end
00:41:47
up in a situation where you paid the
00:41:48
bill automatically and then you have to
00:41:50
turn around after the fact and say hey
00:41:53
wait a minute I actually paid you too
00:41:54
much okay so that's the exception but as
00:41:57
much as you can automate your finances
00:42:00
not only will you become a better saver
00:42:03
but automation helps prevent costly
00:42:05
mistakes like forgetting to pay your
00:42:07
power
00:42:08
bill number eight social media is
00:42:12
probably hurting you the science says
00:42:15
well the social media intentionally
00:42:17
plays with your emotions with the end
00:42:18
goal of serving you advertisements for
00:42:21
products it suspects you're interested
00:42:23
in some of you were probably saying
00:42:25
Jesse this is this advice is clearly
00:42:28
confirmation bias because you recently
00:42:30
quit social media maybe but I don't
00:42:33
think that necessarily means I'm wrong
00:42:35
right because question how does social
00:42:37
media companies make money answer
00:42:40
advertisers pay them okay well question
00:42:42
why do advertisers pay them answer
00:42:45
because they're serving ads to social
00:42:47
media
00:42:48
users okay next question how do the
00:42:51
advertisers make their money then answer
00:42:54
social media users that's people like me
00:42:56
and you buy those products and services
00:42:59
that they're selling ads for the whole
00:43:01
point of social media in other words is
00:43:04
to get people like you and me to spend
00:43:06
our money by showing us ads for things
00:43:09
that they suspect we want now I enjoy
00:43:13
spending my money right that's part of
00:43:15
the reason why I choose to earn money
00:43:16
and why I want to work hard but I don't
00:43:18
want my spending manipulated by social
00:43:21
media algorithms my brain isn't strong
00:43:23
enough to fight the alos no defense your
00:43:26
brain isn't strong enough either now I'm
00:43:29
not even touching the whole mental
00:43:30
health repercussion from social media
00:43:32
content like comparing your everyday
00:43:34
self to an influencer's doled up self
00:43:37
and the subsequent spending decisions we
00:43:39
make from that I mean social media is a
00:43:41
Cess
00:43:42
pool okay last one number nine know
00:43:45
yourself know your brain the science
00:43:47
says that your brain is different than
00:43:49
mine yes that's pretty simple one that's
00:43:52
duh I don't know if the science actually
00:43:54
says that but let's be honest the
00:43:56
science says that so my favorite example
00:43:58
of this though involves a friend of the
00:44:00
blog who I'm going to leave Anonymous
00:44:01
he's a good friend and our brains work
00:44:04
in polar opposite ways when it comes to
00:44:06
finance and diet which coincidentally is
00:44:08
the other most common New Year's
00:44:10
resolution so I'm this financial nerd
00:44:13
I've got strong financial habits but
00:44:15
I've never maintained a long-term
00:44:17
healthy diet in my life I've probably
00:44:19
gone through 20 iterations of different
00:44:22
two-e diets and I've always struggled to
00:44:25
cross that next herd of making it a
00:44:27
permanent part of my life but my friend
00:44:29
is the exact opposite he's been
00:44:31
dedicated to an incredible diet and
00:44:33
workout regimen for close to a decade
00:44:36
he's one of the most healthy fit people
00:44:37
I know right but he's always struggled
00:44:40
with overspending under saving bad
00:44:43
investing habits for his whole adult
00:44:45
life so his strength is my weakness my
00:44:48
strength is his weakness and it's funny
00:44:50
how can two people be so similar but
00:44:52
also so different and it's because our
00:44:54
brains are fickle funny your brain is
00:44:56
different than mine my brain is
00:44:58
different than his so my only
00:45:00
recommendation here is that you work
00:45:01
hard and trust me because it's hard work
00:45:05
you work hard to understand your brain's
00:45:07
strengths and weaknesses if it helps ask
00:45:10
some trusted friends or family for
00:45:12
feedback on how you operate knowing
00:45:14
yourself is a key factor in
00:45:16
self-improvement you know Socrates wise
00:45:19
guy said to know thyself is the
00:45:21
beginning of wisdom so if you have
00:45:22
financial goals for 2023 and Beyond I
00:45:25
hope he's nine IDE is help you achieve
00:45:26
everything you want and more happy New
00:45:29
Year guys thanks for listening to the
00:45:31
best interest
00:45:34
podcast thanks for tuning in to this
00:45:36
episode of the best interest podcast if
00:45:38
you have a question for Jesse to answer
00:45:40
on a future episode send him an email at
00:45:42
Jessie bestter interest. blog again
00:45:46
that's Jesse bestter interest. blog did
00:45:49
you enjoy the show subscribe rate and
00:45:51
review the podcast wherever you listen
00:45:54
this helps others find the show and
00:45:56
invest in knowledge themselves and we
00:45:58
really appreciate it we'll catch you on
00:46:00
the next episode of the best interest
00:46:03
[Music]
00:46:05
podcast the best interest podcast is a
00:46:08
personal podcast me for education and
00:46:10
entertainment it should not be taken as
00:46:12
Financial advice and is not prescriptive
00:46:14
of your financial situation
