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welcome to the best interest podcast
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hosted by Jesse Kramer where we discuss
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today's best ideas in personal finance
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and investing the best interest is a
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personal podcast meant for entertainment
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purposes only it should not be taken as
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Financial advice and is not prescriptive
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of your financial situation here's your
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host Jesse
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Kramer hello and welcome to the best
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interest podcast my name is Jesse Kramer
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this is uh episode 43 of the podcast got
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a few fun things to talk about today to
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start with uh recently published a
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couple articles two weeks ago that I
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won't go into too much detail today but
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you can go to bestin interest. blog if
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you want to read them one of them is uh
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a quarterly net worth report so every
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quarter I publish a net worth report
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that simply States you know if I've been
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able to save money how my investments
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have done only because I want to be uh
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transparent with you guys and show that
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I practice what I preach I practice the
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budgeting methods that I preach I
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practice the investing methods that I
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preach and I want to show you guys what
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the results look like so that you know
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for yourself what's going on there then
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the second article that I'm not really
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going to get into detail uh about is uh
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is about Chess actually there's this uh
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pretty big cheating scandal going on in
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the Chess World and I am very much a
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loose amateur fan of Chess and I know
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just enough to be dangerous which isn't
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that much but it's a pretty interesting
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story about cheating at the highest
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levels of Chess and the article I wrote
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it's somewhat a breakdown of the
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timeline of the last month like what
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happened when it happened how has the
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drama unfolded and uh I think I do a
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reasonable job from a journalistic point
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of view of explaining the the series of
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events but then also I get into a little
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bit about
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incentives because when I see the story
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I see some interesting incentives where
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uh many of the different people involved
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have incentives to defend themselves or
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defend their own point of view uh some
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people have incentives to kind of fan
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the Flames through producing for example
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YouTube videos about what's going on uh
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even there there's a website that's
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trying to be this kind of in between uh
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but they they have an incentive uh that
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motivates their actions so the point
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being that um there's this really famous
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quote show me the incentives and I'll
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show you the outcomes well everyone's
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got their own incentives in this story
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and so it's really hard to know who's
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being honest uh or who is simply uh
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defending their their incentives so I
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highly recommend that article even if
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you're not a chess fan because it'll
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it'll catch you up quickly on what's
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going on there and then shed a little
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bit of light on uh at least how I'm
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thinking about the the different people
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involved and whether they're guilty
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whether they're innocent and uh and
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whether they're acting in good faith or
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not
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[Applause]
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[Music]
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but I do have a few things that are
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financially related to talk about today
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and the first one is an article I wrote
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called opportunity paranoia and six more
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ways your brain sabotages your money uh
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this is something I've been thinking
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about a lot and this article's kind of
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been a while in the making just
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different ideas here or there but it
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starts with this simple phrase uh which
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is probably the most significant outcome
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from psychologist Barry schwarz's
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research described in his book called
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The Paradox of choice and the simple
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phrase is less is more too much is
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stressful and then and then Barry
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Schwarz goes on to explain and he says
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while increased Choice allows us to
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achieve objectively better results it
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also leads to Greater anxiety indecision
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paralysis and dissatisfaction so I'll
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say that one more time increased Choice
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leads to greater anxiety indecision
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paralysis and dissatisfaction this is
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known as the Paradox of choice you know
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as our choices increase a few choices
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make tends to make us happier than no
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choices at all but too many choices
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actually makes us unhappy and this idea
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is most often applied to Consumer
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scenarios so for example chocolate or
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vanilla that dichotomy is less stressful
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than here are our 50 flavors you need to
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choose one and my person favorite
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example uh is why Costco the store of
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Costco has such limited options if you
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want peanut butter at Costco here's your
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GIF if you don't want peanut butter
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that's fine but you don't have to make a
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decision between 12 or 100 different
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brands like you might at a at a Wegman's
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or another smaller grocery
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store uh but when applied to personal
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decision- making schwarz's research is
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commonly called analysis paralysis it's
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the inability to make a decision due to
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overthinking our own thoughts create too
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many choices and we second guess
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ourselves we stall we stress we flail
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and ultimately we fail now this analysis
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paralysis it creates four major problems
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in day-to-day life first analysis
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paralysis it lowers performance on
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mentally straining tasks and on the blog
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I have links to studies that back up um
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all these all these assertions here so
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analysis paralysis it lowers performance
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on mentally straining tasks simply put
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our brains have limited quote unquote
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working memory it's just like a computer
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uh if you use that working memory on
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overanalyzing you'll have less of it to
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use on more important tasks second
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analysis paralysis kills creativity when
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your brain is caught up in analysis your
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creative synapses are less active third
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analysis paralysis saps willpower uh
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this is the so-called decision fatigue
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our brains have a finite willpower each
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day and if you use all that willpower
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while paralyzed on one decision you'll
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have nothing left over for later
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decisions and fourth uh analysis
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paralysis ultimately makes you unhappy
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uh this is the famous satisficer versus
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maximizer conundrum satisficers are
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people who solve a problem up until
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they're satisfied maximizers solve a
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problem until the solution is perfect uh
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analysis paralysis that is a maximizing
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Behavior but study after study shows
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that satisficers are happier than
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maximizers so analysis paralysis in
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other words is it's bad and it certainly
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creeps its way into personal finance I
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hear a new story every week it's a
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significant and common source of
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financial stress so here are six common
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ways that I see analysis paralysis in
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personal finances and what you can do to
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avoid it the first one too much thought
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over too small a purchase should you buy
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the $5 GIF peanut butter or the $4 store
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brand just just stop because every
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decision big or small hurts your
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willpower for the rest of the day so
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don't waste a decision on $1 worth of
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peanut butter next opportunity paranoia
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or the preoccupation with determining
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everything's opportunity costs this is
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especially prevalent in the fire
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Community where the zealots view every
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facet of life through the lens of money
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and time I could spend $50 on dinner
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but if I invested that money I might
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have $1,600 in 50 years well sure you
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could every decision today has a painful
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opportunity cost in the future but
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skipping today's nice dinner and every
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nice expense add infant item might make
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you the unhappiest guy in the nursing
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home and the richest guy in the
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graveyard this money you can't take it
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with you the next way analysis paralysis
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hurts your personal finances knowing
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everything before jumping in if you you
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insist on knowing everything about
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budgeting investing Etc before starting
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your personal finance Journey you'll
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stagnate on the starting line forever
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zero progress there's nothing wrong with
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a little self-study but you have to
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admit eventually you can't get wet
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unless you jump in the pool so set a
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deadline to take action and follow
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through the next way that analysis
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paralysis hurts personal finance is
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through picking stocks timing the market
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and other Pursuits of perfection in
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investing it's so enticing for investors
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like all people to seek out I'm smarter
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than you scenarios but time and again
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the data shows that most professionals
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aren't smarter than the market so what
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chance does an amateur have instead
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diversify your portfolio buy and hold
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and keep a long-term mindset uh fourth
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the next one uh comes from the irar
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study which there's a link to on the
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blog which shows that the more
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investment choices in a 401k account the
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less likely employees are are to
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participate in it that's just classic
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analysis paralysis more choices equals
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more analysis and more analysis is more
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paralysis so the lesson there is to do
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your best to avoid scenarios with too
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many
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choices the next way that analysis
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paralysis hurts personal finances it's I
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kind of took the opposite take on this
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one automation is key the decision to
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automate removes a 100 decisions in the
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future if not more so with banking in
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investing budgeting bill pay most of it
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if not all of it can be automated this
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is what Ben Franklin said hundreds of
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years ago a stitch in time saves nine
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one decision to automate today saves
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hundreds of decisions in the future and
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the final way that analysis paralysis
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hurts your personal finances is by
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making perfect the enemy of good enough
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this is similar I suppose to that
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maximizer versus satisfyer uh uh
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decision we talked about earlier so my
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budget my personal budgeting is rarely
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perfect I'll find myself at the end of
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the month I'll reconcile my accounts and
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I'll realize that you know
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$16.35 is is missing and the balances
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don't quite line up so I could spend 30
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minutes reviewing every line item in my
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bank account and every line item in my
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budgeting software and I might I
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probably could find that missing
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$16.35 or I could just chalk it up to a
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mistake realize that I spent $16 on
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something and just add in a fake $16
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expense into one of my catchall buckets
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in my budget knowing that I got $3,000
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of monthly spending perfectly documented
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my my time and my brain power are worth
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more than a $16 mistake and this brings
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me to perhaps my favorite quote from the
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book The Paradox of choice which is when
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asked about what they regret most in the
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last six months people tend to identify
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actions that didn't meet
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expectations but when asked about what
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they regret most when they look back on
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their lives as a whole people tend to
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identify failures to act personal
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finance and investing can be cruel if
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you fail to act so don't let analysis
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paralysis get in your
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[Music]
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wayal and speaking of not acting in your
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personal finances is that brings me to
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the next article on the best interest
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which is called Omission commission how
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not acting can cost you
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Millions so commission commission is the
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act of committing it's doing something
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Omission is the absence of action or
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doing nothing now I like George Carlin
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maybe you haven't heard of George Carlin
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he is a very famous comedian now he he's
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dead now but he was very famous in the
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you know 60s 70s ' 80s he's extremely
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funny but I've always had issue uh at
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least one issue with his jokes about
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voting and the government I could never
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quite put my finger on the issue
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though and secondly I don't vote because
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I believe if you vote you have no right
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to
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complain people like to twist that
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around I know they say they say well if
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you don't vote you have no right to
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complain but where's the logic in that
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if you vote and you elect dishonest
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incompetent people and they get into
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office and screw everything up well you
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are responsible for what they have done
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you caused the problem you voted them in
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you have no right to complain I on the
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other
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hand who did not vote who did not vote
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who in fact did not even leave the house
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on Election
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Day am in no way responsible for what
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these people have done and have every
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right to complain as loud as I want
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about the mess you created that I had
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nothing to do
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with so the the quote there that I want
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want to focus on right you caused the
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problem you voted them in you have no
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right to complain I on the other hand
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who did not vote who in fact did not
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even leave the house on Election Day am
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in no way responsible for what these
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people have done and have every right to
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complain as loud as I want to about the
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mess you created that I had nothing to
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do with so that that is really funny but
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in writing this article and I realized
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my issue with Carlin's logic he's
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suggesting that omission his choice to
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not vote by default absolves him of
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responsibility and I don't think I agree
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with that idea and I'm not the only one
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and that brings us to the famous trolley
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problem it might be the most famous
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conundrum in all of philosophy so the
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trolley problem is this you're watching
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as a train heads down the tracks
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straight towards five strangers tied to
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the rails you can't run fast enough down
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the tracks to actually untie them and
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help them but you can reach the track
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switch to divert the train onto an
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alternate track but there's one problem
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because another stranger is tied to the
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alternate track just one
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Stranger In other words just to
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emphasize what's going on if the train
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keeps going the way it's going it's
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going to run over five people if you
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divert the Train on the alternate track
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it's going to run over one person so
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what do you do if you do nothing
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omission the train kills five strangers
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but but you didn't tie them there right
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you're nothing more than a coincidental
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unfortunate bystander so why should you
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feel any guilt over that if you do pull
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the switch commission you save those
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five lives but you also play executioner
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for the poor Sab on the alternate rail
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you're no longer a bystander but but
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you're taking an active role including
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an active role in one poor guy's death
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omission kills five commission kills one
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so what should you do we won't really
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try to answer it today but we can say
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this both omission and commission have
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their costs it might feel like Omission
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Bears less guilt but that's just your
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feeling and it's a biased feeling at
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that those five dead guys really wish
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you had chosen to act and in fact this
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biased feeling it's well documented in
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Psychology and it's aptly named the
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Omission bias it's a it's an it's an
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irrational bias that we feel sometimes
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where we believe that not acting
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absolves us of guilt so I recently
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listened to Joel larsgaard who's Joel
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from the the very famous podcast how to
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money and Ben Miller from the chrony
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podcast they were discussing a bunch of
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different personal finance ideas on
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Ben's podcast and I loved how they
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framed omission and Commission in
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personal
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finances investing is an act of
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commission you choose to put your money
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at risk so sometimes your Capital grows
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and sometimes it doesn't the commission
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of risk-taking it leads to gains and it
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leads to losses Omission is a decision
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to not invest typically that means that
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you might deposit your money into a
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savings account at the bank no risk No
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Gain No loss but is that right is there
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really no loss from Omission because
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when I compare a couple basic investing
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strategies commission to not investing
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at all Omission I really like the
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results from commission so I took a look
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at a 60/40 portfolio that's 60% stocks
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40% bonds over the past 50 years it has
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99.9% compound annual growth rate with
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no 7-year periods of negative
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performance and there are some charts
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showing you this data on the blog uh so
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that was 99.9% per year for a 6040
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portfolio next I looked at a 4060
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portfolio
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88.9% Comm compound annual growth rate
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over the past 50 years with no 5-year
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periods of negative
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performance finally over the same 5year
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period I looked at a savings account as
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measured by the federal funds rate it
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returns an average of 5% per year so
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that was
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99.9% 88.9% and
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5% but we need to go one level deeper
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because over the same 50 years we've
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seen average inflation at
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3.9% and that slowly erodes the value of
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our dollars and that means the real
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returns of these three simple
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Investments are 6% per year for the
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60/40 portfolio 5% per year for the 4060
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portfolio and 1.1% per year for the
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savings account 6% 5%
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1.1% so commission even in a boring 640
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or 4060 format provided five or 6% real
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returns per year magnifying someone's
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spending Power by over 11 100% over
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those 50 years was it a bumpy ride kind
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of sort of sometimes there were some
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periods of of negative performance but a
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long-term investing mindset cures that
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Omission meanwhile provided a 1.1%
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annual real return increasing spending
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Power by
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72% so Omission has no loss Omission
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absolves us of responsibility no way I
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know what I'm voting for
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[Music]
00:18:41
for all right we had a listener question
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from Rhett and Rhett asks with prices
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for stocks and ETFs hitting yearly lows
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which ones are you accumulating more of
00:18:52
also thoughts on the 2023 Market looking
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forward good question Rhett now
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personally I uh I do not practice much
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Market timing I don't practice much
00:19:04
Market prediction now that said uh
00:19:08
economic Outlook isn't looking
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phenomenal right now and we're most
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likely going to be entering an official
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recession some people say we're already
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there there's some really cool data
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though showing um when the stock market
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bottoms compared to when a recession
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bottoms a recession bottoms usually it's
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measured by gross domestic product GDP
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and um and usually at least in this past
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six recessions or I should say maybe the
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six most major recessions since since
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World War II the stock market has
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bottomed uh four or five months before
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the economy itself has bottomed meaning
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we we know that the stock market tends
00:19:53
to be forward-looking right all the
00:19:55
analysts all the players in the stock
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market they're doing doing their best to
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predict the future and while as
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individuals they might not be able to do
00:20:02
so as a collective they're they're
00:20:05
pretty good at that and what that means
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is that four or five months before a
00:20:09
recession is is starting to tick upwards
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right four or five months before the
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very bottom of the recession people in
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the stock market tend to look around and
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say you know what I think we're about to
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bottom and then we're going to start
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turning around and that's when the stock
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market starts picking up if you don't
00:20:26
get that timing right as an investor if
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what I should say is if you try to time
00:20:31
it and don't get that timing right um in
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those same six recessions that I
00:20:36
referred to before if you had missed
00:20:39
that timing by four or five months uh
00:20:42
you would have lost out on 20 or 25%
00:20:45
return each of those times and if you
00:20:48
know anything I mean 20 or 25% return
00:20:50
that's that's like missing out two to
00:20:52
two and a half maybe even three years in
00:20:54
the stock market that's really
00:20:56
significant so my point of all this is
00:21:00
I'm not trying to time the market uh I'm
00:21:03
not worried about the fact that the 2023
00:21:06
we might see a recession we might see
00:21:08
more pain in stocks uh simply because if
00:21:12
I get the timing wrong I know what that
00:21:15
penalty might be and uh I'm not willing
00:21:19
to sit in the future put myself in the
00:21:22
year 2040 let's say and look back at
00:21:25
2022 2023 and say sh shoot my portfolio
00:21:29
would be 20% higher if I had timed the
00:21:32
market better or my portfolio would be
00:21:35
20% higher if I hadn't been such an
00:21:37
idiot trying to time the market and
00:21:39
failed right instead I'm just staying
00:21:41
the course I'm staying in the market my
00:21:43
money is still there I'm willing to put
00:21:45
up with the ups and downs right now
00:21:47
because I'm not selling anytime in the
00:21:49
future well anytime in the near future
00:21:52
I'm going to be selling in 25 years
00:21:54
something like that and at that point my
00:21:57
expect expectation is that current
00:21:59
market conditions will be a uh simply a
00:22:01
blip on the radar now with prices of
00:22:04
stocks and ETFs hitting yearly lows
00:22:07
which ones am I accumulating more of I'm
00:22:09
still dollar cost averaging I'm still
00:22:11
putting money into my Roth IRA still
00:22:12
putting money into my 401k and I'm
00:22:15
spreading that money around uh into my
00:22:17
Diversified portfolio so I'm buying
00:22:21
broad uh stock index funds A fut a
00:22:24
couple mutual funds uh a tiny little
00:22:26
sliver of bond funds and a sliver of
00:22:28
some
00:22:29
Alternatives um every month that's what
00:22:32
I'm doing every month and uh that's what
00:22:35
I'm going to continue doing every month
00:22:36
for the next few decades if I had a pile
00:22:39
of play money right now and I had
00:22:41
nothing to do with it um fans of the
00:22:44
best interest know that I own a little
00:22:46
bit of birkshire halfway stock the the B
00:22:49
shares um which let's see right now
00:22:52
they're trading at
00:22:54
$265 year-to date they're down 12%
00:22:58
and from their High they're down uh
00:23:02
their high was in March actually and
00:23:04
they're down 26% since then so Burkshire
00:23:07
hathway is a company that I am a fan of
00:23:09
I'm a big fan of Warren Buffett and
00:23:11
Charlie Munger who run Burkshire
00:23:13
Hathaway so um if I had some spare money
00:23:16
and there was only one stock that I
00:23:17
would put it into that would be the one
00:23:20
but um that's not really how I tend to
00:23:22
invest I I only own Berkshire hathway
00:23:25
because I think it's fun I don't own it
00:23:27
because I think think I'm smarter than
00:23:28
anyone else um my smart money goes into
00:23:33
broad index funds boring yes but
00:23:36
effective over the long run I'd rather
00:23:38
be boring and effective than exciting
00:23:41
and wrong thanks Rhett for the question
00:23:44
keep them
00:23:48
coming predict the
00:23:51
[Music]
00:23:54
future
00:23:55
[Music]
00:23:56
resisting
00:23:58
and listeners thank you for listening to
00:24:00
this episode of the best interest
00:24:02
podcast if you want to send your
00:24:04
questions in you can email Jesse bestin
00:24:07
interest. blog or you can go to the blog
00:24:11
go to the podcast page and on the
00:24:13
podcast page there's this little thing
00:24:15
called speakpipe where you can just
00:24:17
press a button and you can record your
00:24:19
question and then I'll get the audio
00:24:21
file and I'll throw the audio file
00:24:22
straight into the podcast or if you'd
00:24:25
want you can probably just record the
00:24:26
audio on your phone and send me that
00:24:29
audio file via email either way whatever
00:24:31
you want to do oh and one more thing you
00:24:35
might listen to other podcasts and you
00:24:36
might wonder why do all these podcasters
00:24:39
ask me to rate and review their podcasts
00:24:42
it's a great question and the answer is
00:24:44
well it kind of helps our podcasts grow
00:24:47
and in the long run you know if I'm
00:24:48
trying to get this information in front
00:24:50
of more people if I'm trying to help
00:24:51
more people with their with on their
00:24:53
personal finance Journey it's helpful to
00:24:56
get it in front of more ears so reading
00:24:58
and reviewing the podcast is a great way
00:24:59
to do that so if you enjoyed this
00:25:02
podcast if it helped the favor I would
00:25:04
ask of you is to go to Spotify go to
00:25:06
Apple podcasts wherever you listen you
00:25:08
can just go right in the app on your
00:25:10
phone and and if you're so inclined
00:25:12
leave a five-star rating and leave a
00:25:14
review of the podcast I really
00:25:15
appreciate it and uh thank you guys for
00:25:18
listening thank you for listening to
00:25:20
this episode of the best interest
00:25:23
[Music]
00:25:26
podcast
00:25:30
do you
00:25:34
[Music]
00:25:41
real