00:00:00
I'll read an email from one of our
00:00:01
listeners. I'm a journalist and a fan of
00:00:03
the show. I don't understand why I'm
00:00:04
hearing Kelie percentages cited during
00:00:06
the show has said it's anything. It's
00:00:08
people guessing. I think it's more
00:00:09
harmful than helpful. So, what do you
00:00:10
think about that?
00:00:11
>> This is one of those things I'm hugely
00:00:12
conflicted by cuz I am absolutely
00:00:14
fascinated with the data. Where I would
00:00:16
push back on the listener is, oh no,
00:00:19
this data is incredibly insightful. This
00:00:21
is the wisdom of crowds. Whenever I'm
00:00:23
looking at political races, whenever I'm
00:00:25
looking at interest rate movements, I go
00:00:27
to Khi. Typically the people who did
00:00:29
this stuff were were academics,
00:00:31
economists or an investment banking
00:00:34
analyst. All of them are conflicted. All
00:00:36
of them want to catastrophize because it
00:00:38
makes us look smarter. All of us have
00:00:39
third party influences. Nothing is more
00:00:42
amoral and pure than money. When someone
00:00:45
bets on something, it really shows you
00:00:48
what they really think is going to
00:00:49
happen. These speculation markets or
00:00:50
prediction markets have essentially put
00:00:52
pollsters and to a certain extent
00:00:54
investment banking analysts out of work.
00:00:55
If you look at the prediction markets
00:00:57
record versus pollsters in the last
00:00:59
election, the prediction markets kicked
00:01:01
their ass. I love the data. I am
00:01:04
swimming in the data. It's one of the
00:01:06
first things I do before I get on a
00:01:07
show. I look at Cali data. I'm totally
00:01:10
conflicted because at the same time,
00:01:11
there's a really good argument that this
00:01:13
is just gambling.
