00:00:00
What I see is effectively America right now is a giant bet on AI. Uh let let me
00:00:06
just get political here. If the S&P had been down 23% instead of up 23%, there's
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no [ __ ] way, in my view, Trump would have the cloud cover to send troops into Portland.
00:00:26
Hi everyone. This is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Carara Swisser.
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And I'm Scott Galloway. Scott, guess what I'm doing tonight? I know what you're doing. You're interviewing Kla Harris.
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Yeah. What do you think? What do you What do you think she's going to do next? I don't know. I'll be honest with you. I
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I think she wants to run for president. That's my impression. She's still young. She's Yeah, she is the best known one,
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right? like no matter how you slice it, she's got the most name recognition. And a lot of men have failed and tried
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again, right? George Bush comes to mind. Lots of people do. Um Joe McCain tried a
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number of times. So there's no reason she shouldn't necessarily. Yeah. No, there's no reason other than
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she'd lose for a third time and we wouldn't have a female president for 50 years on the Democratic side, but other than that, she should have. I'm just
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saying she's just and that she brighten and that she brightens up room by leaving it and her total political victories have been not
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making it to Iowa. Okay, that said that was so but George Bush like tried it 83 times like and
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that was okay and then he got to be president. I'm just saying like she was the senator, she was the AG, she was the
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a she's had a lot of big jobs. I don't know. I I oh god I that as
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somebody I I you know my view on this I'm incredibly lookxist. The only thing I know is the Democrats are going to
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nominate a white heterosexual male over six feet tall. Full stop. That's the only That's the only thing I
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know. Maybe Wes Moore, maybe Governor Moore. America seems comfortable with
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non-whites. I don't think they're comfortable. I don't think the de what's weird is I don't think the Democratic party is comfortable with a gay
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president, but we'll see. But it's going to have to be somebody tall.
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And uh you know who was who's very good who I interviewed or we talked to for Rage Moderates is Governor Pritsker.
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Yeah, he is. He is. He has very comforting dad energy. He has comforting dad energy. But, you
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know, let me just point out and I'm not not to put a twopoint fine point on it, but you've been spectacularly wrong
00:02:19
about political predictions. A lot of Oh, I'm awful at politics. So, that's why I'm like I'm awful.
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I don't know. I don't there's a there's a there's a real opportunity. Not necessarily Harris. I think someone from outside like someone that we don't
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aren't thinking about, right? Not not someone who's unknown, but someone we're not. No, it's definitely going to be Kla Harris and Taylor Swift. That's it's
00:02:39
definitely going to be great. She knows how to again she knows how to sell records. She just beat everybody's record again. I I don't have to dwell on
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it, but she could she could do well. Um uh one of the things was uh you saw the the scare about Dolly Parton. I would
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like to vote for her. Um her sister put up something on Facebook like she was dying. We need prayer warriors. And then
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she had to get up and say I know. But then she had to do a video was like, "I'm not dead. I'm not dead." I was like, that was
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I get the sense the sister's in the will and was praying for a different outcome. Yeah. No, I think they're very close.
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Oh, that's awful. Oh, that's awful. Have you been to Dollywood? I have, of course. Hello. Oh, what's it like?
00:03:16
Oh, I love it. I love it. I went when my nephew Will, who I love, and his wife Lee got married. Uh, they went they had
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they had gone to Vanderbilt. Um, and but then they got married in where's Del? It's in Pigeon Forge, but it's next to a
00:03:29
big city um in um in uh in Tennessee. And so I did go.
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You sound like such a cultural elite, right? No, I loved it. What are you talking about? I did not a cultural elite. I went I I was very excited and so I
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brought all the kids. You triggered. I I love Dolly Parton. Georgetown
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not let me just say I'm a very complex liberal. Um I love Elvis. Um Dolly also unites
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the country. Um but I went and I took all the kids and there's butterflies
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everywhere which is wonderful. But one of the things that struck me and it's a very good theme park I have to say it's
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really homey the food is fantastic actually there the food the food is really good um it's really beautiful you
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see the code of many colors etc etc uh which is great the Dolly Museum but what I what really struck me and I it was
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highly noticeable it was all kinds of different people it was the gays
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obviously the gays were in out in force then it was like sort of the rednecks
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they were there do. Then it was sort of the Christian economy. You know, there are some gay rednecks.
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Yes, I understand that. Um there's gay everything. Um and then there was like sort of Christian conservative type of
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people. And let me tell you, everybody sounds like America. It was everybody in Dollywood. Everyone
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was getting along. We're all like Dolly. We're It was like so interesting because the minute you step out, it changes of
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Dollywood. I wish I I wish the whole world was Dollywood because everyone was getting along. Everyone liked Dolly.
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There was a lot of talking. It was the most enjoyable theme park I've ever been to. But then I we got out and Pigeon
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Forge is a little much. There's all kind It's sort of gotten overrun with all kinds of touristy stuff. Um but my son
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Louis wanted to get a knife and so we went into this store that said the world's biggest knife store on the top
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of it. And I missed the endgun part when I didn't see it. It was behind the
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thing. And we go in and it it was a diff it was like people throwing bullets into
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like bullets and guns and everything into like these carts like like a lot
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like a lot of bullets and stuff like that. And Louis went off and got his the knife he wanted for cooking. And and I'm
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sitting there watching this woman put like maybe a thousand bullets into the cart. And I was just curious. I'm like
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why why are you buying so many bullets? Like not you shouldn't buy. I wasn't saying that. I was like, "I'm just
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curious why you're buying so many bullets." And she goes, "It's my right to buy bullets." And I said, "Hey, you absolutely you should be able to buy as
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many." I'm just curious why why why you're doing it. And she said, "Cuz Antifa was coming." It was And then I
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just was thrown out of Dollywood. Cuz I was like, "Oh, yes, of course. Antifa, that's what's happening."
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If someone had been buying a lot of Plan B, would you have asked them why they buying so much why they're buying so
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much condoms? Yeah, I do. I talk to people in stores. Unlike I think that's passive aggressive, but that's just me.
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And I think people should have gun rights. I just think should be gun controls, too. Well, we're really going off topic here.
00:06:29
So, you mentioned I'm going to try and save you here. You mentioned Vanderbilt. Um, as someone who's in the midst of the
00:06:36
most manufactured stress in history, college apps for their son. Parents want to send their kids to college in the
00:06:42
South. They don't want protests. They don't want they don't want wokeness. They want a pure college experience and
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the southern schools are booming. Oh, are they interesting? And public schools cuz they're a better value.
00:06:56
Yeah. Well, Vanderbilt's also a beautiful school and a very great school. Maybe the parents want the nonwokeness, but I think it's cuz kids love the
00:07:02
party. That's a party school. All that all that stuff that's going on there. I think it's it's not as woke as you
00:07:08
think. It's not as unwoke as you think. It's really It feels like you're in the middle of a big city in Nashville. I
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love Nashville. Yeah. So do I. Yeah. Anyway, um we've got and also hot chicken. Go hot chicken. Anyway, I love
00:07:20
Dollywood. Thank god Dolly is not that sick and I'm thrilled for her to live for decades to come. Um we've got a lot
00:07:26
to get to today, including Open AI's cash burn and Apple's succession plans.
00:07:32
Uh but first, Tesla had people buzzing about an exciting reveal this week. possibly the Roadster that Elon has been
00:07:38
teasing for years, but instead the company rolled out a cheaper version of the
00:07:44
Model 3 and Model Y. The new cars run about $5,000 less in the current models
00:07:49
with simpler exter interiors and fewer luxury features like that cool light on the front that's gone. The cheaper cars
00:07:55
could offset some of the hit Tesla expected to take with the end of the EV tax credit they're hoping. But investors
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seem to be unimpressed so far. Tesla's stock fell 4% after the announcement. Um, talk a little bit Scott about these
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cheaper cars because uh, you know, I a lot of the things I saw online were like
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this is this is just a shittier car and it wasn't it wasn't very exciting and cars are about being excited about the
00:08:18
cars, right? Or maybe not. I don't know. The way to summarize it is less for more. with the the end of the tax
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credit. They couldn't compensate for the end of the tax credit in terms of a a
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you know a value of product to cost ratio. The they're the new cars are
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about 40 and $37,000 respectively or the Model Y and the standard Model 3 or the
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Model 3 standard. They're more expensive than the Model Y premium and Model 3 Premium cost just last month because the
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tax credit expired. And also these cars are significant downgrade essentially
00:08:55
Tesla customers are paying more for less. This is and when you compare that
00:09:00
against I mean the market is as it has if if you want to understand what's
00:09:05
happening Tesla watch the movie Tucker. There used to be like 50 or 60 automobile companies and it's consolidating. Unfortunately
00:09:11
it's consolidating not around American giants it's consolidating around Chinese giants. Uh the costs are coming down and
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Tesla can't keep up and doesn't have the scale. GM, Nissan, and Hyundai all offer
00:09:24
EV models that are cheaper than Tesla's most inexpensive vehicle. Good looking. And in China, the BYD seagull is now
00:09:30
under $8,000. And even if even if we you know ring fence our econ or our our
00:09:36
market you know China's had the ch the CCP has had to send a letter to Chinese
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EV manufacturers and say please raise prices because a lot of these EV
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companies are seen as national champions for the local jurisdiction and they're being subsidized
00:09:53
but an $8,000 EV. So the amount of pressure here. So what you have is I
00:10:00
mean I don't know if you saw but he came up with this that they're they're kind of shelving their robot plans which was
00:10:06
their latest attempt to distract people from the fact this is an automobile company not a not a SAS or a AI company.
00:10:13
But the death spiral here continues. Uh Tesla's market share in the US dropped to its lowest level since 2017.
00:10:19
Yeah. But that stock keeps flying right now. It's a meme stock. I can't get that. But
00:10:24
how long does that continue when there are really such obvious results here? I have been wrong about Tesla for a long
00:10:30
time, but all I can report is Tesla sales were down 43% year-over-year in the EU and they're down 6.3% year to
00:10:37
date year to date in China. And although September was a record setting month for EV sales in the US because people were
00:10:44
trying to get the tax credit um which helped them a little bit, Tesla sales were muted and Tesla sales
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were only up 7.4% 4% versus Ford and GM EVs were up 107%.
00:10:56
Yeah, because of this tax credit expiring, people rushing to get to car. I thought about getting another uh replacing my Kia with another one of the
00:11:02
Kia actually, which are really nice. One of the things that you were focusing on the price and everything else, but and
00:11:08
the and the credit, but one of the things is it's a shittier version of the car, and it's not interesting. I I've
00:11:13
been looking at more electric cars again because I'm thinking of going fully electric and um there's so many cool
00:11:20
cars out there like so much fun like shopping them a little bit and I wouldn't even look at a Tesla cuz it's
00:11:26
this hasn't changed lots of reasons I don't want to pick money to him but that's not why if it was if he came up
00:11:31
with a delightful car I'd have a hard time not buying it right even him because I use Amazon and I and Jeff
00:11:37
Bezos gives me a [ __ ] headache cuz it's good right and so I I was like When
00:11:42
I look at the BYD cards just online, I've never actually seen I haven't been to Europe in a while and I haven't seen
00:11:48
seen it. They look it's something I would buy if it was available. So it I've been in several BYD cuz I took
00:11:55
Ubers all around Brazil when I was in Sa Paulo and you get in one and you think you're in uh your first impression is oh
00:12:02
you're in the the cheap Tesla. Mh. But the cheap Tesla is 30 or 35 grand. And this thing this guy told me I asked
00:12:08
him how many real it was. 80,000 that's about $16,000. you're basically in what feels like kind
00:12:13
of the low model Tesla, but it's for half it's for half the price. And
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also what I found interesting is that Tesla they announced kind of under the
00:12:24
cover of dark that they're abandoning the plans for producing the Optimus their transition to AI. Yeah.
00:12:30
And earlier in the year, Mus said in an attempt again to justify what is just an unsustainable stock price, he said on an
00:12:36
earnings call that Tesla would build 10,000 Optimus bots for internal use and that eventually, get this, Optimus would
00:12:43
make up 80% of Tesla's enterprise value. He's just making it up. And by the way, yeah, Amy's just like
00:12:48
throwing [ __ ] out. There was one at the Tron premiere I saw. I just was like, this is ridiculous. Well, they the thing that kind of
00:12:54
triggered it and said, "Okay, we we got to put this thing on hold or basically find a polite exit from this." the head of Optimus just left the company to be a
00:13:01
research scientist in Meta. He and he also confirmed on X that he took a pay cut to do so.
00:13:07
But meanwhile, Tesla stock is up 14% this year. Yeah, I know. It's crazy. If he made a
00:13:12
great car, I bet people would buy it, right? That's one. Two, he's the the the the thing that's interesting, even
00:13:18
though he goes on and on about robots, is his spectrum and a mobile phone, right? that the stuff that Starlink is
00:13:24
doing to me is actually a like that that's a great product. It could be a great business. Um he could do he could
00:13:32
steal market share from Verizon and and the rest. I mean to me that is the boring stuff that he could actually do
00:13:38
rather well on. Um or he could make a car that's delightful again or innovative or feels fresh, but he won't
00:13:44
do that. He doesn't want he's not interested in that at all. Yeah. I think look he's a brilliant guy
00:13:50
and he's trying to reposition the entire thing as AI and a combination of he does
00:13:55
have an exceptional product with SpaceX autonomous driving uh he's got a lot of data you know he's he's got gro he just
00:14:03
he's raised he's about to raise a [ __ ] ton of money for that I mean he could try you don't you can never count this
00:14:10
guy out so but and he's trying to make like this he's trying to figure out a way to maintain Tesla's market cap so he
00:14:17
can fund his move into AI and this other stuff. And also, he's raising a lot of money and raising debt because a lot of
00:14:22
people just want to be involved with him in hopes that they can either get into SpaceX or into the SpaceX IPO. And just his name associated with anything takes
00:14:29
the value up um tens of billions of dollars, but there's just no getting around it. is the weak the weak link in
00:14:36
all of this is that the company that's worth the most is is overvalued by 10x
00:14:44
and he keeps coming up with Robovven or autonomous cars or optimist robots and
00:14:51
it's like please please look over here don't look at here as I try and pull this dead rabbit out of we should pull up to our tour in a
00:14:57
rebovven I can't they don't exist I know that that's we should bring a
00:15:02
robot we should bring an optimist robot Can you go buy one? You know what? I'll just take Xanax.
00:15:07
You'll think it's a robot on stage with you. Anyway, uh Elon, make a better something. Like, stop mo moving [ __ ]
00:15:13
around. He actually just paid off uh all those Twitter people. He tried to keep their uh their salaries after he fired
00:15:20
them. Uh he had to pay, of course, he ended up paying everybody back. Um anyway, uh moving on. This is this story
00:15:26
is getting more and more interesting. Open A has now signed about a $1 trillion in deals this year for computing power. Partnering with Nvidia,
00:15:33
Oracle, and others. This week's massive deal with AMD sent the chipmaker stock soaring by more than 40%. A crazy crazy
00:15:40
amount of money. Uh O uh OpenAI's cash burn is probably an estimated $115
00:15:45
billion through 2029. And the latest valuation puts at 500 billion, making it
00:15:51
the world's most valuable private company. We know that analysts are sounding the alarm about these circular deals as we talked about previously. It
00:15:58
feels it feels very AOL purchase pro circa you know the last century a small
00:16:04
network of companies pouring money in each other's coffers fueling an AI bubble. Um they're all waiting to make
00:16:10
money you know they're all desperate to make money to to to back this up. Now Nvidia is also investing in XAI's latest
00:16:18
funding round. They're all sort of propping each other up with the same $5 essentially. So talk a little bit about
00:16:24
this so people can understand. There's all there was there's been some great stories showing all the interconnections, you know, especially
00:16:31
charts and it's really quite it's really quite something. It's like a you know, someone called me when I said it was a
00:16:37
roundtpping. They're like that's someone at one of these companies said that's really rude. I said you would you prefer I use circle jerk
00:16:44
and they were like no stick with round tripping. So anyway, there we have it. circles jerk your thoughts.
00:16:50
Well, if what is it? Well, let's just do the math. If Nvidia invests a hundred
00:16:57
billion in open AI and with the with the agreement that
00:17:02
they're going to turn around and buy and spend all of that hundred billion on Nvidia chips,
00:17:08
uh, okay, so that's that's trading at $4 trillion. So, it's approximately a 2.5% dilution to the
00:17:15
stock price. So all else being equal, the stock price should go down 2 and a.5%. That's the cost they're spending
00:17:20
two they're taking 2 and a half% of their company or they're increasing their dilution by 2 and a half% for that hundred billion to invest in OpenAI.
00:17:28
That money comes right back in the form of chip purchases. The average the operating margin on on the GPUs that
00:17:35
Nvidia sells is about 55 points. So that creates $55 billion
00:17:41
in um incremental incremental earnings or profits. The company trades
00:17:47
at um the company trades at about uh uh a a PE of about 33. So loosely speaking,
00:17:57
that's about 1 that's about $1.8 trillion increase in
00:18:02
market cap. So $1.8 $8 trillion increase in market cap off of a hundred billion investment is a 1,700% return. The
00:18:11
problem is so theoretically it's a it's a wildly accreative thing to do but all
00:18:16
you're doing is I remember we were doing this in the late '9s. We were we were
00:18:22
buying software from all the other startups we worked with backed by the companies
00:18:27
who had backed us wanted us to go that was and then when things start and then when
00:18:33
the music stops it it's not like the music stops and they take away one chair. When the music
00:18:39
stops and one chair gets taken away a dozen chairs get taken away cuz everything just accelerates downward. So
00:18:46
these deals uh we've talked about it. These deals feel very latestage
00:18:52
bubble. C can I ask you I saw Ken Griffin talking who is seems like a grumpy fella. Um but
00:18:58
he was smart guy like that's what I'm saying but he was talking about gold um and
00:19:04
you know the price well we're going to talk about gold in a second but he was discussing this he's like this is a real
00:19:09
problem the frothiness around tech stocks and that they're holding up the whole things and he and many others are
00:19:15
predicting this sort of market collapse. I think they're not even using downturn.
00:19:20
They're like collapse kind of thing. And sometimes I believe those things, but he had such a cogent argument about
00:19:25
it. How how do you look at that? Well, I I'll give you a a thesis and
00:19:31
I'll tell you what I'm doing as opposed to offering financial advice. First off, just some caveats. When the experts are
00:19:36
the most knowledgeable people are all convinced about something happening, I forget the name of the effect, but it
00:19:42
almost it usually doesn't happen. Uhhuh. Like like experts on average when experts have consensus, it's usually
00:19:48
wrong. And if you look at the arc of the growth of open AI, it's kind of mimicking what
00:19:54
happened to Netscape. And it's at a point where it's still two years away from the bubble bursting. So like I said
00:20:01
that the economists called the dot implosion perfectly, but they called it in 1997 before those stocks went up
00:20:07
another 30 or 40%. So do we know they're going to come down? Yeah. The hard part is figuring out when they're going to come down and
00:20:13
if they're going to they're if they're going to scream to new highs. Now, what
00:20:19
I see is effectively America right now is a giant bet on AI because 40% uh let
00:20:27
let me just get political here. If the S&P had been down 23% instead of
00:20:33
up 23%, there's no [ __ ] way, in my view Trump would have the cloud cover to
00:20:39
send troops into Portland. Mhm. If he was totally distracted with, okay, [ __ ] you get into office and
00:20:45
all of a sudden the market goes down, loses a quarter of its value, he would be putting out fires and not
00:20:51
have the cloud cover to start raiding Home Depot. So essentially,
00:20:56
the the bet on AI, the extraordinary evaluations of AI, the acceleration of
00:21:02
these 10 stocks which are responsible for the uptick in the S&P are enabling Trump's behavior. I think AI and the
00:21:09
market valuations of AI are the reason that Trump has the cloud cover to move towards fascism.
00:21:14
Yeah, of course. And there they were front row getting all the gimm the lack of guard rails, the money, the
00:21:20
cryptocurrency. They got all their stuff and here they are helping him stay. Well, and then he shows up and says,
00:21:26
"Okay, I'll pass AI legislation where you can suck value from the 490, the S&P
00:21:33
that aren't you. The tariffs don't impact you. They probably help you because you can get talent. Who the [ __ ]
00:21:39
what graduate of the Ross School, which is an amazing business school in Michigan, is going to go to work for Ford if they have an offer from Google
00:21:44
or Meta or Broadcom right now. And when you have you have you have some
00:21:50
of the smartest people in the world. Warren Buffett is selling like a maniac.
00:21:56
So what I'm doing is and I've been doing it for a long time. I have been buying European and Latin American stocks and I
00:22:02
am now contemplating I'm trying to find an ETF and a way to go short the
00:22:07
Magnificent 10. I just and by the way I might these there's a great saying the
00:22:12
markets can stay irrational. Explain what you mean. Short the magnificent 10. Tell people what you're doing so people understand
00:22:19
for our business app. Well, yours. There are now ETFs and what they do is they go out and they sell they sell
00:22:25
covered calls against those 10 companies. Meaning they think that they're they take a premium and if the stocks don't go up, they get to hold on
00:22:31
to that premium and they do it across the Magnificent 10. You're they're basically you can invest in vehicles that are betting on the Magnificent 10
00:22:38
going down. Uh but just a point of caution here. You do not want to invest
00:22:45
more than you are willing to lose all of it. I'm doing it as a hedging strategy because I think if these 10 companies
00:22:50
unwind, literally every company in the world is likely going to go down because
00:22:56
in the 80s there was some incredible academic research that showed that you get re you get risk-free risk adjusted
00:23:05
free return and upside based on diversification. And so everyone believed that and everyone started
00:23:10
diversifying like crazy. meaning that if an iron ore company in Australia goes
00:23:15
down in value, the people who own that iron ore company will probably have to sell Japanese stock. So everything's
00:23:21
sort of interconnected now. And when you have 10 companies responsible for 40% of the S&P's value, and the S&P makes up
00:23:28
50% of the total world's value, you have 10 companies responsible for 20% of the
00:23:34
entire valuation of public equities globally. Meaning that is the string that if it
00:23:39
gets pulled Yeah. you know everything everything what pulls it then
00:23:45
it's in my opinion everybody just goes what like it's that MIT study which was not great research but there was an MIT study that
00:23:52
you could poke holes in but it was I think directionally correct showing that 95% of companies when surveyed said they are not yet getting the ROI they'd hoped
00:24:00
based on these extraordinary expenditures and site licenses with LLMs so everybody has signed big agreements
00:24:06
with anthropic with with chat with open AI they have purchased chips to try and
00:24:12
build their own things and so far they're excited about it. They see a lot of potential, but they're not seeing the
00:24:18
ROI. And if all of a sudden a bunch of big companies all of a sudden come out and say, "We're scaling back our
00:24:25
investments in AI because it's not showing the ROI and Nvidia throws up and goes down 20 or 30% in one day." You
00:24:32
could see just the an unwinding very slowly. Nvidia is the domino.
00:24:38
Well, Nvidia most likely, Cara, because the the thing about OpenAI is they're private. So, they don't have to announce
00:24:45
that they threw up their earnings and you don't see the stock go down 30% in one day. I see. Okay.
00:24:50
This is where it pays. It pays to be a private company. So, you know, Nvidia,
00:24:55
Broadcom, Oracle, all these guys, Palunteer, if Palunteer went down 70% in
00:25:03
two weeks, we would say, well, of course it did. Yeah. Right. Right. it would it still wouldn't look cheap
00:25:09
now. But if the company that the company that probably creates almost like a
00:25:14
global a real a real slowdown and we're very vulnerable right now because there's indications that we are seeing a
00:25:22
weak job market while inflation is persistent which is the sword stackflation but the company you never
00:25:28
know it's almost impossible by virtue of saying it's Nvidia that get that is the
00:25:33
epicenter of the earthquake here it probably won't be Nvidia when this [ __ ] happens it usually starts in a place you
00:25:38
didn't expect it. But it's definitely feeling like, you know, NASA Talib, the notion of anti-fragility, we have way
00:25:45
too I'll let me finish where I started. America right now is a giant bet on AI.
00:25:53
everything. Whether it's Trump's policies, as they those idiots say, all whether it's Trump having cloud cover to
00:26:00
make the aggressive moves he's making, whether it's the fact that we can impose ridiculously stupid tariffs and the
00:26:06
economy still is not gone into a gone into a coma, it's because of the massive
00:26:12
amount of capital chasing returns and momentum in 10 stocks right now. Yeah. Everybody head for the hills. And
00:26:19
speaking of which, gold. Okay, Scott, we're going to take a quick break when we come back. Why investors are going for gold.
00:26:26
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00:27:33
Scott, we're back in our very business focused show today. Um, the price of gold soared past $4,000 for the first
00:27:40
time this week. Prices are up more than 50% since the beginning of the year. Uh, gold traditionally climbs during periods
00:27:45
of uncertainty and it's currently on track for its best year since 1979.
00:27:50
That's a long time ago. Uh, this late, what were you doing in 1979? How old was I? I was still in high school. This
00:27:56
latest rally kicked off right as the government shutdown began. Um, but the gold gold has been up and up since Trump
00:28:03
announced his liberation day terrorists back in April, obviously. Are you going for the gold, Scott? Are you wearing a
00:28:08
gold uh belt right now like in uh billions where you have a little go little gold dloons etc. Ray Dallio said
00:28:15
this week that people should allocate as much as 15% of their portfolios to gold. Thoughts? Thoughts about gold?
00:28:23
The first crush I ever had. Yeah. And the first woman I ever remember registering as pretty was a woman named
00:28:28
Carson Evans. And her and her husband Charlie, he owned a printing company where were the first people I ever observed were rich. They used to have
00:28:35
big parties where people would drink and they lived up in the hills and they'd hire these bands and I thought, "These
00:28:41
people are so cool." And Carson was just beautiful. And her husband Charlie, I
00:28:46
was going to go to work for his company after high school cuz I didn't think I was going to go to college. And really
00:28:52
good man, my godfather. And his company went out of business. Uh, very depressed. She told me he was leaving
00:28:57
him. And um, he went into his room and killed or went in the garage and killed himself. Anyways, that's not the moral
00:29:03
of the story. She was a very She was I'm gonna come back to Gold. Okay.
00:29:09
She was a very good friend of my mom and when my mom was dying uh out of nowhere, she was by this time a raging alcoholic
00:29:15
in her 70s addicted to opiates. Is this going to get better? Okay. All right. It ends on a funny note. Uh she'd become
00:29:21
addicted to opiates and Johnny Walker Black because of the back pain she has from failed surgeries. She showed up.
00:29:27
She called me and said, "I'm going to come take care of your mom." And I'm like, "We're fine." I didn't want an alcoholic there. A Canary yellow
00:29:33
Corvette shows up with a dog and 12 bottles of of Johnny Walker and she's
00:29:39
like, "I'm here." And every night she would make hot pockets for us and keep my mom company.
00:29:44
And God. Anyways, so my mom my mom passes. Carson goes back to San Diego.
00:29:49
Yeah. Uh Carson dies four years later and I got a call from a lawyer in San Diego
00:29:55
saying, "You're the sole beneficiary of Carson Evans." What? Yeah. She left me everything. when
00:30:00
everything wasn't a lot, but she she had no friends. She had no kids. Oh god.
00:30:05
So, one of the things I inherited something I did not this is I'm my mind is being blown right now. You had like
00:30:11
Jennifer Culage as your godmother essentially, right? You know what? That's a really actually
00:30:17
that's the most apt analogy I would have ever used to describe Carson. Yeah. Um a drunk a really drunk Jennifer Culage.
00:30:24
Okay. Uh so I my dad I said to my dad I said go down there and find out what
00:30:29
there is or anything neighbors I had a funeral for three people showed up. Oh no. And yeah and one of them one of them was
00:30:37
one of them was the maintenance guy who she was fooling around with I guess. But anyways I walked in on her topless fooling
00:30:43
around with a maintenance guy taking care of my mom and I still that's like still starts in my memory. Anyways, so I
00:30:50
feel this is one of the things I inherited not have a story like this for you. So she had a safe, no money, nothing,
00:30:56
but she had a safe. So we had to hire people to come out and drill open the safe. And in the safe, what a
00:31:01
I saw something that I used to see her wear all the time. And it was this massive gold belt that had Indian Indian
00:31:08
head $5 gold coins. It was a belt with 12 gold coins on it.
00:31:13
And these gold coins, I guess this is the only gold I've ever owned were worth like 3, five or 10,000 each. And at one
00:31:19
point, gold soared and my closest friend was going through a divorce. Mhm. And I'd hid the gold coins, the belt,
00:31:26
cuz I didn't know what to do with this thing. Sure. And my my oldest friend from home was going through a divorce and I had just
00:31:31
sold my home in the Hamptons. The story is getting douchier and douchier. And so I shipped him all the furniture
00:31:37
because he was going through a divorce. I'm like, I don't need this furniture. You can have it. And then about two
00:31:42
years later, gold spikes and I figured that and I didn't have a lot of money. I just started at NYU and I'm like, I
00:31:47
could really use that money and I thought and Indian gold heads were going for like $18,000. So I'm like, I have a
00:31:52
$200,000 belt. I racked my home looking for this
00:31:58
[ __ ] belt. And then about six months later, my friend calls and he goes, "Oh, by the way," he goes, "My youngest son,
00:32:06
uh, Nick has been wearing this cool costume jewelry Halloween belt you have." No.
00:32:11
I'm like, "What are you talking about?" And he's like, "Yeah, we found it in the drawer. He wears it to school every day cuz he thinks it makes him look like a
00:32:17
rapper." Oh my god. So, two years later, I found out that my friend's 13-year-old was wearing a
00:32:23
$200,000 belt to school every day cuz he thought it made him look like Snoop Dogg. I can't believe this way. He would wear it around his neck.
00:32:29
Where's the belt? He would wear it around his neck. Where is the belt? He would wear it around his neck. And so
00:32:34
anyways, anyways, got it back. Gave three of the gold coins to this girl next door who used to go and get get
00:32:41
Carson her prescription drugs. Okay. And then we still have the other nine. But anyways, you still have the belt?
00:32:47
No, I just I I didn't It's not the belt. It's the nine Indian head gold coins.
00:32:53
You have them? You know, I I just got very insecure again cuz again, I can't [ __ ] remember where they are.
00:32:58
God, Scott, but every time I think of that belt, I think of this woman who you this woman
00:33:04
literally in 1979 was the toast of the town and then wasn't
00:33:10
and then but and then like 25 years was addicted to painkillers and an alcoholic
00:33:16
and and broke. Wow. Okay. Yeah. Anyways, gold is best. Gold.
00:33:21
Okay. Anyways, let's talk about I think we're going to stop now. I feel like Thanks for that walk down memory lane.
00:33:27
Um Oh my god, Scott. I was fascinated by that. I thought at first, oh my god, he needs to stop. And then I was like, I
00:33:33
want to hold that. I want I need you to find the belt now. Okay, you like my Bitcoin, like my Bitcoin that's missing,
00:33:40
wherever it is. You need to find my mine's on a hard drive. That's the whole story. Okay, so I'll bring us back to gold. The
00:33:46
bottom line is the runup in gold. Yeah. Is essentially an indictment against the US because gold is sort of
00:33:53
dollars and everyone's going into bit. That's what Griffin was saying. They're going into everything but dollars. Right. Right. Right.
00:33:58
So people no longer have as much faith in the dollar and they no longer typically when there's kind of a risk on
00:34:03
trade or you want something that might endure inflation or some sort of risk. There's just so much it feels like there's so much risk everywhere. you go
00:34:10
into treasuries and people are even losing confidence in um treasuries and that's foreign central banks are moving
00:34:17
into gold because they no longer consider US debt a safe asset because we have so much deficit and per your comments last week
00:34:23
Citadel's Ken Griffin said investors are starting to view gold as a safer asset than the dollar. Yeah.
00:34:28
Which is obviously really concerning because what people don't appreciate is while whenever there's tumult in the
00:34:34
world or danger presidents typically the first question they ask is where are our carriers? Yeah. The most powerful carrier strike
00:34:41
force in history that's invisible is the US dollar because very few companies, very few countries can transact a lot of
00:34:47
business without going through US dollars. So we get to see everything. Our sanctions have teeth. We can the
00:34:53
economic firepower we have because the dollar is the default currency. Now fortunately nothing looks like it's
00:34:59
rivaling it. Yeah. But the fact that gold's above $4,000, it doesn't speak will. all the other
00:35:06
alter he called them dollar altars as Griffin called them. By the way, I did just say that about 10 minutes ago and
00:35:12
it's because that story was so long you forgot I didn't say it last week. Anyway, I love that story. Can I call it
00:35:18
though? I need you to answer this briefly. Where's the [ __ ] Corvette?
00:35:23
Oh, I don't I don't know what happened to the vet. I think she sold it. Yeah. Okay. For drugs.
00:35:28
Yeah. No, I Carson is a cautionary tale for me. Took care of my mom. I checked in on her only a few times. I remember
00:35:34
thinking at her funeral like this woman who was taking care of my mom and I couldn't find the time to go visit her. Oh, don't don't don't do that.
00:35:41
Yeah, for a lack of character. We're going to move on. We're going to move on. That's a great story. Carson, here's to [ __ ] Carson. That's
00:35:46
awesome. Here's to Carson Evans. Here's to Carson Evans. Um Tim Cook. Uh we're moving on from gold. Uh Tim Cook since gold is
00:35:53
best. People go look gold is best and Apple up and you'll laugh your ass off. Uh Tim Cook may step down as Apple CEO
00:36:00
in the near future and clear front runner for his replacement is emerging hardware engineering chief John Turnis.
00:36:06
Turnis has already been in the Apple spotlight unveiling new Macs and iPads in the past. He's 50 years old. Really
00:36:12
interesting guy the same age as Cook was when he took the role and has a strong technology background as opposed to
00:36:18
operations or sales. There was other there was uh what's his name? the guy who left just recently left was thought
00:36:25
to be the CEO uh person but he's left I think it's Jeff Williams was supposed to be the CEO but now it looks like this
00:36:31
guy um talk about the the shifting o over this I think they'll probably do a very smooth transition at Apple I don't
00:36:37
think it'll be sort of ugly like many many others like Disney or whatever not ugly but just slow or confusing as many
00:36:44
companies when they do these transitions I suspect they'll they'll um they'll do
00:36:49
it pretty smoothly the the thing that I'm sort of shock shocked by is that Cook has been so acquiescent to Trump if
00:36:55
he's leaving like what does he have to lose to have some dignity but go ahead
00:37:00
well Apple is arguably I mean if you look on just consistently for the last
00:37:05
20 or 30 years has been the best run yes you know best run company in the world and kudos to Cook by the way everyone
00:37:12
thought it was going to fall apart when jobs died and he's made it bigger and better and stronger was $300 billion when he took over and
00:37:18
now it's three and a half trillion and look there's a The biggest lesson people can
00:37:23
take away from Apple specifically right now, and it's a really important lesson that our elected leaders and Bob Iger
00:37:31
need to learn. [ __ ] leave. Leave.
00:37:36
You are too [ __ ] old. Leave. Twothirds of Congress will be dead in 25
00:37:41
years because they're so [ __ ] old. You really think they're worried about debt or climate change?
00:37:47
You really think a 74y old Bob Iger can read the room right now? Leave. Tim Cook
00:37:53
added more shareholder value than any individual in history with the exception exception of Jensen Huang. He's 64. And
00:37:59
you know what he's doing? He's realizing it's probably time for someone else. And
00:38:06
if you were to, and I know I say this a lot, but if you were to reverse engineer the world's biggest problems,
00:38:11
they reverse engineer to some dude who won't [ __ ] leave. Yeah. some guy who won't get out of the
00:38:18
way. Cook does not strike me as that person. I have That's my point. Kudos to him. Yeah. Yeah.
00:38:23
Kudos to him. He what? He has nothing left to approve or accomplish. He should
00:38:28
go watch Bama games or whatever he does and have documentaries made about him and go
00:38:34
to film festivals and have sex with much younger men and just enjoy himself.
00:38:39
Yeah. Yeah. I agree. He could be on the board. Take take follow his lead. Congress.
00:38:46
Follow his lead. How old is he? How old is he? He's 64. Yeah, he's not old. He's not that. And he actually is incredibly fit, too.
00:38:52
You're right. You're right. He's in great shape. He's in great shape. He's with it. He's done a great job. Some missteps,
00:38:57
humble, nice, everything. Golden statue. Granite probably produced the most
00:39:03
dangerous device in the world. But look, kudos to him. I love I love that
00:39:08
this guy is saying, "Okay, it's time to let someone else take over." Yeah. Okay. very well-run company.
00:39:15
Yeah, he's got a lot of choices there. What's interesting about Apple and I remember when uh I think I've said this where when Walt retired they had a
00:39:21
little surprise party for him um at at one of the events uh Cook and Eddie Q
00:39:27
and the whole gang of them. Um and I have to say I was really sometimes I think when people all stay together for
00:39:33
a long time that sucks too, but I thought this group of people they kind of reminded me of the Rolling Stones.
00:39:39
they like kind of kept going pretty well for a long time and and and the fact that they've injected this new guy who
00:39:44
was a relatively new guy and never met him, John Turnis. Um uh into the
00:39:50
equation without having to like go to one of the older guys is kind of great actually. You know, I'm I'm sure he's
00:39:56
been there a while. I don't know much about him, but um but it's not one of the ones right below Cook, right? That's
00:40:03
the natural thing a lot of people do. Um, and so, you know, they should really, you're right, Disney should do
00:40:10
it. Interestingly enough, this Dana Walden was the the one people think is going to do possibly hurt by the Jimmy
00:40:16
Kimmel thing, but Kimmel just said she was great just publicly. So, these things should all just happen. Like,
00:40:22
there's never a good time to leave, right? Presumably. I mean, you're a board member. What What's the problem?
00:40:27
What's the biggest just ego? What What do What do you put it at? This is This is the problem. And I'm I'm
00:40:33
virtually signaling or I'm patting myself on the back. I always put I always have a self-imposed term limit of
00:40:38
four years on boards. I always leave after four years. One, because I want to do a variety of things because I'm going
00:40:45
to be dead soon and I need to shift shift stuff off my plate regularly to put more stuff on. But also, this is
00:40:50
what happens when you're on a board. You start vacationing with Bob and Willow and you find out they're really lovely
00:40:56
people and you just want them to win and you like them personally. And even though you've decided, okay, Bob, you've
00:41:03
made some really bad decisions and you're 74. Maybe we give should give that parks guy or gal a chance. You
00:41:09
don't cuz you're on the board and you play golf with them and you like them and they're nice and you start making excuses for them. And guess what? Every
00:41:15
CEO I've met is effectively not the fraternity president or the sorority
00:41:20
president, but definitely the fraternity or sorority rush chairman. And that they are really, really likable. Because how
00:41:27
you get to be CEO is not only being outstanding but by creating a lack of enemies because you are so [ __ ]
00:41:32
likable and everyone on the board or they're scared of you. That's the there's another version of a CEO that's
00:41:38
scared of you people. Well, that's that's more the you get paid off like the Musk thing is also they pay these board members off.
00:41:45
But good boards are meant to be I mean one of the first things I demand in every board is executive session
00:41:51
where you and CEOs hate this and good boards do this where for at least 15 or 30 minutes at the end of the board
00:41:57
meeting the CEO leaves the room and you talk about how the CEO is doing and then
00:42:03
you have the chairman give them feedback. And what bad boards do and I've seen this in Fortune 500 companies is they don't do it because oh the CEO
00:42:10
is doing such a great job and they all and they all get paid off and they all start and they all want to be on other
00:42:16
boards and before you know it they are totally co-opted and the and there's usually two board meetings. There's
00:42:22
usually a board meeting, the official board meeting and then what I call the real board meeting and that is the two or three people that have power on the
00:42:28
board. It's usually the biggest shareholders and the person the one person everyone kind of respects on the board and they meet in the parking lot
00:42:34
after and they start saying I'm worried about Bob. I'm not sure he's the right guy. And that's the beginning of the end
00:42:39
when it happens. But people in boards typically don't like Yeah. They don't they like
00:42:45
unless and not only that good boards have shareholders on the board, not just their buddies. But look at,
00:42:51
you know, a little like a president who doesn't want to leave, requiring the vice president to go in and say leave,
00:42:56
which is vaguely traitorous. Anyway, just thinking that you got there's a there's a real lesson in this and that is and I you know, you
00:43:05
want you want to surround yourself with people. This is why I think kids are so valuable or teenagers. You have to have
00:43:12
people in your life that go on a regular basis, that's just [ __ ] stupid. You're wrong. Yep. You're wrong. Stop it. You're wrong.
00:43:19
Yeah. And if you don't have those people in your life, if if people if you don't have people saying that to you, it means
00:43:25
you have the wrong friends or you have or your family is scared of you because
00:43:31
nobody I don't care who you are. It is really hard to read the label. It depends on who they are. I will say
00:43:36
Bob Iger does seek out people who don't agree with him. I I have spoken to him like you know what I mean? Like you know him I don't.
00:43:42
Yeah he does. He does he and he doesn't he doesn't shy from it. So may maybe he
00:43:47
will in that case. But Tim Cook, good for you. Um, we do have to move on though. Scott, let's go on a quick break. When we come back, we'll talk
00:43:52
about major banks wanting a role in the IPO of Fanny May and Freddy Mack. Scott, we're back with more news. Major banks
00:43:59
are smoozing with the Trump administration for a role. Of course they are. For a role, as you noted last week, how do you work with the White
00:44:05
House for a role of the IPO of the Fanny May of Fanny May and Freddy Mack? CEOs of the country's six largest banks have
00:44:11
made visits to the White House in an attempt to become the favorite. All six banks are expected to play a part, but all are pushing to have the two lead
00:44:18
roles. The administration is looking for an IPO, a combined value of $500 billion, raising roughly $30 billion,
00:44:24
which could make it the largest IPO offering in history. What is what is this is like another big payoff this
00:44:30
time for the banks versus tech companies. Correct. Yeah. It's it's the reason why Jamie Diamond, who I think is a leader, or or
00:44:37
or um David Solomon, who I also think is a great CEO,
00:44:42
um are less inclined to speak their mind and say the Fed needs to be independent,
00:44:48
although they have said that, or these tariffs make no [ __ ] sense because they're all hoping to get a part of that underwriting underwriters fee for this.
00:44:56
First off, this shouldn't happen. uh anything like this where the government has input, which it probably shouldn't,
00:45:02
he should recuse himself from the decision and have a panel of thoughtful, smart people who say, "Who what is the
00:45:08
best syndicate?" And the reality is the syndicate for an offering like this should be just everyone because they
00:45:14
want to get as much distribution as possible and then competitively bid it out to try and get the lowest fees
00:45:19
possible. But instead, like Tik Tok and everything else, he's going to decide who are his political allies and who
00:45:26
will say things and show up to the White House and Jamie, will you say nice things about me? Because if these guys
00:45:32
come out and actually say, I don't know, I'm worried about stagflation and these policies don't make any sense,
00:45:37
which Diamond has been doing compared to others more more sense. I think Jamie I think Jaime to his credit has been a
00:45:43
leader on this and and also I think Jamie right now he has a lot of power
00:45:49
and he's also very powerful. In addition the banks are rocketing right now because of this M&A laa because of a
00:45:55
lack of FDC oversight in these incredible Do you have any insight of who's going to get the two the two lead roles?
00:46:01
Oh, it'll be it'll be the big guys. It'll be JP Morgan and Goldman. It'll be everybody. I don't know who will be but
00:46:08
there's two there's two lead roles. I gotta think it's gonna I It's It's two
00:46:13
of three. It's the two I don't know who the two are. I know who among it'll either be JP Morgan, Goldman or Morgan
00:46:20
Stanley because because Trump is very brand sensitive
00:46:26
and the also these companies have the largest networks and probably the best research and they're probably the most capable.
00:46:32
But this will end up being a syndicate for everyone because it'll be such a massive offering. the whole thing. The
00:46:37
president shouldn't be influencing these decisions because it creates an unfair market and
00:46:43
it creates an ecosystem that that withers away and erod smells like Tik Tok. Have you got the
00:46:50
stops people there's a downside to the downside to autocracy
00:46:55
is you punish your enemies. The flip side is and just as important to autocracy is overrewarding your
00:47:02
allies. Yeah. And the problem is if you're not in the president's ear every day, you're just a small or a
00:47:07
medium-sized business which is responsible for twothirds of the job creation. Those companies suffer and the economy suffers.
00:47:14
So you're not supposed to the president shouldn't the president not even a cabinet level decision should be involved in this. It should be it should
00:47:20
be an independent committee of really smart people that includes bankers but don't have a vested interest or own shares in these companies picking who
00:47:26
the syndicate is. Yep. Yep. Yep. Well, there you have it. Really briefly, 500 National Guard members are currently in Chicago despite
00:47:33
a lawsuit challenging their deployment to the city. There's outside the city. Apparently, President Trump has said several times week that he would invoke
00:47:38
the Insurrection Act if necessary. The federal law from 190 uh 1807 grants the
00:47:43
president powers to deploy the military domestically and to federalize national troops, but only in certain cases. Um,
00:47:49
President Trump also took uh took to I think it was used during the the riots in LA last time, I believe. Um,
00:47:56
President Trump also took to Truth Socialist Week to further attack the city, saying Governor JB Pritsker, who you just sat on, Scott, and Chicago
00:48:02
Mayor Brandon Johnson should be in jail for failing to protect ICE. Uh, 58% of Americans, including half of the
00:48:08
Republicans, think armed troops should only be sent for external threats. Uh, what is this? Just goes on and then
00:48:14
there's these photos from Portland where people dressed as as frogs. Hilarious. I mean, it's as dinosaurs dinosaurs and
00:48:21
frog. like, you know, it it it's crazy. And then you have, you know, uh Christy
00:48:27
Gnome doing cosplaying. Like, talk about Ice Barbie. Like, what is she doing? Like, what do you think about this?
00:48:34
Nobody likes this. I I on any spectrum, it's sort of organically hateful from
00:48:39
for everybody, what's happening. I don't very briefly from a marketing point of view, Scott, besides the Fantastic Frog.
00:48:47
I mean, just a couple observations. I don't I I think we're going to look
00:48:52
back on this era and we're we're going to be all even those of of those of us who think we like it that we're somehow we understand what's happening to us.
00:48:59
We're going to just be horrified when we realize how much mind control profit
00:49:04
sinking people who aren't concerned with the well-being of our emotional and financial health influence and how far
00:49:11
they have taken us to really ugly places. And when I go online
00:49:17
and and when I go online and I see all of these images around these horrible images of what's happening in ICE raids,
00:49:24
I feel so bad about America. Yep. You said that. And the rest of the world looks at us and goes, "Wow." And also they say
00:49:31
they're distracted. Let's fly attack drones over over Estonia. And it's bad
00:49:36
for the brand. It takes our eyes off of real problems. It makes it it's really
00:49:42
dividing America. I mean, it's like liberal cities, you know, versus the federal government. And not only that,
00:49:48
it's incredibly fraught with risk. What happens if someone loses it and starts firing on
00:49:54
these troops? They are or opposite, the troops start firing on or the troops start firing. It's just
00:49:59
a likely situation. It it's just not and also it totally feeds into the juice, the mojo, the
00:50:05
creatine of fascism, and that is that the enemy is within. I don't think everybody it doesn't
00:50:11
divide us. It's the Trump administration doing this. I don't I have not run into anyone who who including conservatives
00:50:16
who thinks it's a good thing. Like nobody nobody except for the occasional Fox person who's like cities are crazy
00:50:23
war grounds which are so ridiculous. Um people who've never been to cities. So I just I I think polling shows that most
00:50:30
people do largely do not like this. everybody. I think there's actually, Cara, I think
00:50:36
there's an uncomfortable number of people who are angry and have been convinced by Fox and Trump that these
00:50:44
these immigrants are disproportionately criminal and that they've hurt their economic well-being and that these
00:50:51
Democratic these cities are so poorly run by virtue signaling uh Democrats
00:50:57
that they're they don't like it, but they're willing to tolerate it. Would you have thought? I I have a lot of
00:51:03
conser they don't like it. Nobody likes the troops in cities like that I have encountered among my conservatives. are
00:51:09
tolerating it certainly that but that's different than thinking I don't think it's a I I just
00:51:15
have this feeling people this is of a many things like look what set people off Jimmy Kimmel right the Jimmy Kimmel
00:51:21
thing what a surprise I wouldn't have guessed that this stuff sets people off too it's like a look it's like no no
00:51:27
but look at the polling we have some actual data here new polling on these deployments revealed that 47% of
00:51:33
surveyed opposed the deployments in DC 46 oppose a deployment to Memphis 49 9
00:51:39
opposed a deployment in the National Guard to cities for law enforcement. 52 opposed deployments to their local area.
00:51:45
See, to me, wait, only half of people are paying attention. I don't think
00:51:50
those people are vehement. I guess what I'm saying is I don't think they're vehement. I think they're passive, right? That's the difference. Anyway,
00:51:57
we'll see. We'll see what happens here. You're right. The the issue is there is going to be someone's going to sooner or
00:52:02
later someone's going to lose an eye. Like that expression like please. Okay, let me let me back up. If there
00:52:08
are organizations cooperating with ICE, right, the outrage and the push back,
00:52:14
the red line, if someone had said, okay, the mass uh basically a mass secret
00:52:21
police force at the behest of the president is going into predominantly
00:52:26
democratically run cities and in masks uh uh beating the [ __ ] out of people,
00:52:34
incarcerating and terrorizing uh some people who've been here for 10 and 20 years and a small but non-zero
00:52:41
number of people are actually citizens and creating creating a sense of fear and terror in the homeland or
00:52:48
a late night talk show host gets cancelled for for saying something innocuous about Charlie Kirk. Which one
00:52:54
is going to trigger Yeah. the red line? I wouldn't have thought it was Kimmel. I would have thought it been
00:53:00
this. No, except I guess the question is what can we do about it? I think it's cuz it's a slow burn. I think this is like look it in in the
00:53:06
'60s it was a much slower burn. It felt like it wasn't a slow burn. We were children at the time but I think it took
00:53:13
Kent State it took a number of things. The same thing with civil rights. It took that bridge. It took those images
00:53:21
like it takes a thing. It unfortunately it's often a violent thing. And so to me
00:53:26
the crossing line will be if the troops start shooting people and killing people like right and I think it's a much
00:53:33
slower burn on something like this like I think it's a much slower burn but we'll
00:53:38
so and I don't think I'm speaking out of school cuz this person called me but a lot of
00:53:44
people are running for president right now and I said to this individual like okay you're you're running for let's
00:53:51
call this what it is you're running for president. Well, I'm just keeping my Okay, just stop it. You're only present.
00:53:57
And the person ultimately came to and I can never tell when people ask me for advice if they want my brain or they
00:54:02
just want access to you or to the podcast, but it doesn't matter. They ask me for my advice or money. Fair enough. Thank you for that.
00:54:08
And I said, uh, in my opinion, the smartest thing you could do to be elected president right now would be to get arrested.
00:54:14
Oh. Uh, whatever high-profile governor gets arrested first has a moment to say, "I'm
00:54:20
sorry. I'm just not putting up with this." and gets arrested. I think that person jumps to the head of the I like it. I like it. Should we get
00:54:27
arrested? We could run for I've never been arrested. Have you been arrested? Yes. Twice?
00:54:34
Very briefly, I will tell once I was riding my moped. They pulled me over. Was that you in Vegas?
00:54:39
Yeah. No, not in Vegas. In DC, uh I was arrested. I was I'll tell just tell one
00:54:45
of them. I was riding my moped back from something. I got pulled over and at the time DC was undergoing a lot of drug
00:54:50
issues around um crack and so a lot of apparently dealers were on mopeds and so
00:54:56
they pulled me over. Oh yeah, you look like a I know. So they pulled me over and I was like what? Like I didn't like and then
00:55:02
they wanted to look at my things. I'm like a dealer in the Wizard of Oz. Yes, exactly. And I said you can't look
00:55:08
at my stuff. You can't you don't I don't there's no cause here. You don't get sent a search. It's cuz it's a moped. I'm like a
00:55:14
college student. I was the Washington Post at the time and and they p they I was like, "You can't look at my thing. I
00:55:20
won't open it." And so they said, "Uh, can you turn around?" And I just I turned around and then they cuffed me
00:55:25
and they cuz I refused to let them look inside. You know, the seat of the moped has stuff in it like I wouldn't open it.
00:55:32
And they um they put me in one of those patty wagons and they I was like flying around the patty wagon. They take It was
00:55:39
the park police too who arrested me, I think. And then so I or maybe it was so
00:55:44
secret service. I don't know. I was way over in Hannes Point. They stuck me in a cell. They char they put me to the wall.
00:55:50
They took my belt, my my my shoelaces. I'm like, I'm not committing suicide over this. I was such a ridicul I should
00:55:56
have been I would and today I shouldn't behave like that, but I was a kid and so I was super rude and um and and my
00:56:04
friend Renee Sanchez, who's now who was the editor of the St. P or the Minneapolis paper and now is doing this
00:56:10
amazing thing in Louisiana. He he and I were interns together and he came at the post and he came and got me and just
00:56:15
laughed his ass off. I didn't have anyone else to call, you know. Anyway, that was it. And I was arrested. Oh, I
00:56:22
was arrested for making out in a public park as a lesbian. I'm not going to go into that. Anyway,
00:56:27
I know I fell asleep and decent exposure. Tell me more. I was somewhat naked. Tell me more. I was somewhat naked in a
00:56:34
public park and fell asleep at night making out with a girl and they they they let me off. Let's just say that.
00:56:40
I I just got to say I knew I was partners with you for a reason. I knew
00:56:46
I fell asleep. You literally I didn't think you could command any more respect from me. I was
00:56:51
wrong. I was wrong. I forgot about that. That was bad. Oh
00:56:57
god. You got arrested? Yeah, cuz I was making out with a girl and we were naked.
00:57:03
outside. That's awesome. That is a Hold the F.
00:57:09
You're my queen. You're my queen. Well, let us talk of the war. They did. They're like, "Put like it was close. It
00:57:16
was an internet." And did someone have to come I've had I'm the guy that gets people out of prison. I know. I know. I got was lucky excited
00:57:22
to get back. But can I just tell you at the time it was bad to be, you know, it was like scary to be found out as a lesbian at
00:57:28
the time. By the way, it was International Lesbian Day on Wednesday and I still haven't gotten my flowers from you, but that's okay.
00:57:33
Well, that's because I take the day off to pray and listen to Melissa. We're going to move on for a quick break. We'll be back. God,
00:57:39
I know. I'll tell you. That is a new spin on the You know what? When you come to DC, I'll show you where I was. I was
00:57:44
That is That is literally the only reason I'm going to watch your biopic just so I can see that scene.
00:57:50
Anyway, uh what get someone hot to play you. That's a Honda Civic. I had a Honda Civic. It
00:57:55
was Oh god, now I'm remembering the whole horrible things. If this civic's a rocking, don't come knocking. Let me just say it's I have to tell you
00:58:02
at the time it was terrifying because everybody, you know, now today I'd be like, "Yeah, some people didn't know." So, let me get
00:58:08
this. You had to call it bad to be gay. Like people were not nice to gay police particular. Well, I I've heard. So, you had to call
00:58:15
Lucky and say, "Mom, I've got two things. I've got bad news and I've got worse news." No, I You think I'm going to call Lucky?
00:58:21
Lucky stopped parenting me when I was 6 years old. Sprung you from jail? No, I didn't go to jail for that when they let me out
00:58:27
there. They I talked my way out, but they gave me a like a summons and everything else, but okay, that's enough. All right, now I'm turning red.
00:58:34
One more quick break. We'll be back for predictions. I can't top that. Can I just tell you,
00:58:40
would you think it'd be you that would be indeently exposing things, but it's me? I think so. Yeah. All right, one more quick break.
00:58:46
We'll be back for predictions. Okay, Scott, we're going to use predictions slightly differently. You and I are going to do guesses and see who's right
00:58:52
on two predictions. Okay. So, and you can make another prediction if you want, but Nobel Peace Prize, we're recording
00:58:58
this ahead of the Nobel Peace Prize announcement, which is tomorrow, I or today or later today. Trump has been so
00:59:03
thirsty for this prize. Um, the committee reportedly made the decision about this year's award on Monday. So,
00:59:09
before the Gaza deal was announced, I think Navoni's um uh what's her spouse
00:59:15
spouse is going to get the Nobel Prize. And in his name, both of them, right? I think he's going to get it. I think it's
00:59:21
going to be she's going to accept it on his behalf. That's what I think. Your thoughts?
00:59:27
Um, I like that one. I'm not I'm going to go with other. I think it's been so
00:59:33
politicized. Um, I think they're going to
00:59:41
I think they're going to pick an organization like the
00:59:47
uh I don't know, Sudan's emergency response. top in poly market. Yeah,
00:59:52
that's the top one. Um I because I think this whole thing's been so politicized that I think they want to avoid it and they're going to
00:59:58
pick something that's going to be hard to criticize that's not an individual. Oh, okay. All right. So like something like the International
01:00:04
Criminal Court, the ICC. Yeah, maybe. Well, cuz if I'm on the if I'm on the [ __ ] committee, I just there's it's so
01:00:10
charged. It's except the Pope is doubling down on politics. I think they will. I think they they're like, "Fuck this guy."
01:00:17
That's what I And if he does the Gaza thing next year, he can have it next year. If he does it and it sticks, he
01:00:22
deserves it, right? So, you think Trump deserves it? Uh, if he if he gets a Gaza if he ends
01:00:29
the conflict in Ukraine and Gaza, yes. Yes. I I can't stand him, but if he if
01:00:34
he is the critical person Oh, I think you're giving him way too much credit. I think if we'd had a better president, both of those conf I
01:00:40
think we would have a peacekeeping problem. Okay. All right. Tomahawk missiles destroying the oil infrastructure and they would have
01:00:46
already come to the table. You're right. You're right. You're right. You're right. But, you know, I'm biased. So, you're going for the other and I'm going for the Nal.
01:00:52
I'm going for a non-person. I'm betting on a nonperson. I'm going for an organ. I'm betting on an organization as
01:00:57
opposed to a person. Smart. That's smart, too. But I'm going to go for her cuz I I I think he's a hero. Um uh the second is the government
01:01:05
uh shutdown. The length of the government shutdown. Odds are currently at 62% for shutdown going longer than 20
01:01:11
days. Uh, but if these flight delays get worse, by the way, I had one yesterday when I was taking some flights from the
01:01:16
Midwest. Um, do you predict it will end sooner or can people just hitch a ride on your plane, Scott? Uh,
01:01:23
what which what do you think? Pick a number. How many days in are we, Car? I don't know. Like a week and a half.
01:01:30
10 days in. Eight, nine. Um, I'll go I'll take I don't know if it's the over the under. I'll go longer
01:01:36
just because [ __ ] takes a while. I do think that they're going to come. By the way, I thought Caitlyn Collins
01:01:42
did a fantastic interview with Representative Jordan. Yeah, amazing. I thought she was great. She's great.
01:01:47
I wrote her a note about that question she asked about uh Galain Maxwell. I thought she was Yeah, I thought I
01:01:53
thought she was great with Representative Jordan. I think that there and again, I'm in my filter bubble, so I see the stuff that the
01:02:00
algorithms think I want to see. I think the Republicans are going to come up with something that gives the Democrats
01:02:06
the ability to to to say to claim victory here. Do you see Marjorie Taylor Green going
01:02:12
all this is you want to talk about a statement our society? Yeah. What does it mean when Marjorie Taylor
01:02:18
Green is the sane one in the Republican party right now? Right. She's very and she's also being very effective. She
01:02:23
personalized it. She said my kids the premium for my kids is about to double. Yeah. I was like, who is this person who
01:02:30
and to I've been I've been openly critical of leader Jeff and Senate minority leader Schumer. They have been
01:02:36
very smart going after healthcare. They have to see him go after Lawler on
01:02:43
came and tried to like thirsty up the situation. Jeffree that was his best social media post yet.
01:02:48
You posted it. Yeah, that was Schumer. That was Schumer. They he definitely looked old as dirt, but actually it was effective
01:02:53
looking old as dirt. He is old as dirt. Yeah. But it worked. He He worked in his favor in that regard. All right. So,
01:02:58
wait, you're picking what time? What? What? He's slightly younger than Tim Cook's father. Um, anyways,
01:03:04
you're I'm picking 47 days, just like those Trump people told me. 47. Yeah, that's they want it to be the number of his presidency.
01:03:11
If it's for I'm not exaggerating. If it's 47, that'll ruin our pivot tour because I think you're going to have a
01:03:17
shutdown in the FAA or the air traffic controllers. All right. Okay. All right. I've heard Nashville airport is pretty
01:03:23
much closed. It was actually No, it wasn't. We I got in. Yeah, it you know, I talked to all the TSA people. They were lovely.
01:03:30
I have to say shout out to the TSA people working yesterday cuz Did you get caught making out at the bathroom?
01:03:36
God, I love One time at TSA I bought of um a set of handcuffs in New Orleans and it was in
01:03:43
my bag and I didn't forgot I had bought them. I bought them for a friend. I do not like handcuffs but I bought them for
01:03:50
a friend. I put them threw them in the bag cuz they have all that stuff in New Orleans. And someone pulled them out and
01:03:55
just dangled them in front of me in front of everybody. That was Oh god. Jesus. I'm a terrible person.
01:04:01
You literally you were arrested for sex and drugs. All we're missing is rock and roll here. No drugs. No drugs.
01:04:07
Well, they they thought you were a drug dealer. Although I got to be honest, I don't think you look much like a drug dealer. I don't racist. That's Anyway,
01:04:15
whatever. I was in a jail. I was jailed. I was jailed. Actually, you're like the gut feeling that selling tusi or
01:04:20
ketamine to all your sorority sisters. Yeah, I wouldn't do that. Let me get in exchange for sexual favors in a park.
01:04:25
You know, sending a lesbian to jail is not that scary for a lesbian, just so you know. Anyway, uh I saw Orange is a
01:04:31
New Black. It looked kind of fun. Um anyway, we want to hear from you. Send us your questions about business tech or
01:04:37
whatever's on your mind. Go to Gold Coins and lesbian sex in parks. That's why they come here, Cara. That's
01:04:43
why they come here. Okay, we want to hear from you. to send us your questions about business, tech, or whatever's on your mind. Go to
01:04:49
nymag.com/pivot to submit a question. This is not CNN. This is not CNN.
01:04:56
Call 8551 Pivot. Elsewhere in the Cara and Scott
01:05:01
universe on this week on Propy Markets, Scott spoke with Katherine and Edwards, economist and columnist for Bloomberg
01:05:07
News. Let's listen to a clip. This was terrific interview, by the way. You can't function in a $ 30 trillion
01:05:12
economy with the data that you need to manage it if you are starving your statistical agencies for funds which
01:05:18
we've been doing for the past 15 years. Firing the BLS commissioner, halting
01:05:23
government data collection. We are pushing over the edge something that was already deeply problematic. So we can,
01:05:30
you know, see this as a well, you know, we should have done the right thing 20 years ago, but doesn't matter when you get to the party as long as you brought
01:05:35
a bottle of wine. Uh, that was great. That was really good. I'm coming back as an economist, maybe a seal or a Broadway
01:05:41
dancer. Those are my three things. Maybe a chiropractor. You would be really good as an economist. And reminder, we're going on
01:05:46
tour. As we said, we'll be going to Toronto, Boston, New York, uh DC, Chicago, San Francisco, and LA. Visit
01:05:53
pivotour.com for tickets, which are going fast. Several cities are sold out. And please, please stay away from
01:05:58
scalpers and thirdparty sellers. Uh very quickly before we go, I want to put a
01:06:04
shout out to Marie uh Samuels. uh she's a fifth grader who came up to me yesterday in an event I was at in
01:06:10
Minneapolis and she uh asked an amazing question about what we should do about kids and social media. Such a smart kid.
01:06:16
She actually started a fourth grade newspaper uh late last year and she's now in fifth grade and it's I they sent
01:06:22
me copies of it and it's wonderful. Marie, you're going to be an amazing journalist someday. I just want to say that. Um it's nice. Okay. She was
01:06:29
astonishing amount of poise she had and a great question. Anyway, I really
01:06:35
appreciate that and and again, keep going. You did a you're doing a great job so far. Okay. Uh that's the show.
01:06:41
Thanks for listening to Pivot and be sure to like and subscribe to our YouTube channel. We'll be back next
01:06:46
week. Scott read us out. Today's show is produced by Larara Neon, Zoe Marcus, Taylor Griffin, and Anukica
01:06:52
Robbins. Ernie Interot engineered this episode. Jim M edited the video. Thanks also to Drew Burrough, Ma and Dan Shalan
01:06:57
Shakur me as executive producer podcast. Make sure to follow Pivot on your favorite podcast platform. Thank you for
01:07:04
listening to Pivot from New York Magazine, Vox Media. You can subscribe to the magazine at nymag.com/pod. We'll be back later this week for
01:07:10
another breakdown of all things tech and business. Folks, we do need to reopen the government. We need our military. We
01:07:16
need to pay our great employees. And we need to keep those national parks open so Kira can get some.
01:07:23
I love that. I love that.
