00:00:00
I think the UK just demonstrated more
00:00:02
institutional courage in one morning
00:00:04
than the entire US Department of Justice
00:00:06
has managed in five years.
00:00:15
>> Hi everyone, this is Pivot from New York
00:00:17
Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast
00:00:18
Network. I'm Cara Swisser
00:00:20
>> and I'm Scott Galloway
00:00:22
>> and I am a trad wife.
00:00:24
>> What does that mean?
00:00:25
>> I made bread and butter this morning.
00:00:28
butter from scratch and I made this
00:00:29
delicious bread. Let me unwrap my
00:00:32
>> You're really proud of it. You sent me a
00:00:33
a photo of it.
00:00:34
>> I know. Well, I am. I made it. I I I
00:00:37
know it sounds really stupid, but I get
00:00:38
I I'm on in Here's the whole bread. You
00:00:40
can see it. Everybody see it. It's a
00:00:42
It's a loaf of It's a baguette. This
00:00:43
today is a baguette. And I also made
00:00:45
butter with a marble and a jar and some
00:00:48
heavy cream uh last night at dinner.
00:00:50
Fresh butter. I'm going to make cultured
00:00:52
butter next. Um, I I get on Instagram
00:00:55
and I'm obsessed with watching uh food
00:00:57
videos and I save them and I'm starting
00:01:00
to make all of
00:01:01
>> What's the next thing you're going to
00:01:02
make?
00:01:02
>> Uh, we're going to probably make another
00:01:04
bread. Bread. We're going for bread and
00:01:05
butter. We like bread and butter cuz I'm
00:01:06
a trad wife. So, anyway, there you go.
00:01:09
>> Yeah. No, I think I like that white
00:01:11
supremacist baking company. And he said
00:01:14
that his family had a long history of
00:01:16
being in bread.
00:01:18
>> Oh, I can't believe you have a bread
00:01:20
joke. Um, I have to say it takes me out
00:01:22
of um
00:01:23
>> takes you out of your head.
00:01:24
>> Out of my head. Like I It was an It was
00:01:26
advice, you know, from doing this series
00:01:28
that's coming out. I I spend too much
00:01:30
time in my head. And so Zeke Emanuel
00:01:32
suggested he makes honey. I was like,
00:01:34
I'm going to do things that isn't in my
00:01:35
head. And I have to say, I'm baking is
00:01:38
really chem, you know, it's you have to
00:01:40
pay attention and I'm learning. And so
00:01:42
it's and it's totally you cannot pick up
00:01:44
I mean, I have the phone there with the
00:01:46
rest as they're talking to me, but it's
00:01:48
a useful use of the phone, I guess. I
00:01:49
don't know what else to say. Anyway, I
00:01:50
really like it.
00:01:52
>> So, two muffins are in the oven when one
00:01:55
turns to the other and says, "Man, it's
00:01:57
so hot in here today." And the other met
00:01:59
and the other muffin says, "Holy [ __ ]
00:02:01
it's a [ __ ] talking muffin."
00:02:06
>> I can't believe you have bakery jokes,
00:02:08
>> Cara. My wife has been sleeping around
00:02:10
with other men. Our church pastor is
00:02:11
coming over tonight to offer advice, and
00:02:13
my wife is baking cookies, but I'm
00:02:15
embarrassed because the cookies are
00:02:17
homemade.
00:02:20
I could do this all night.
00:02:22
>> Why do you have them? Are you on the Did
00:02:23
you suddenly get on the internet and
00:02:24
said baking jokes? Is that what happened
00:02:26
there?
00:02:26
>> No, I have a I have an incredible memory
00:02:29
um for 1970s Ram playoff losses and for
00:02:35
dad jokes. That part of my brain is
00:02:37
alive and well.
00:02:38
>> Any we've got a lot to get to today, so
00:02:40
let's dig in. Um this is an astonishing
00:02:43
development. former Prince uh Prince
00:02:45
Andrew has been we call him former
00:02:47
Prince Andrew right now uh used to be
00:02:49
known as Prince has been arrested on
00:02:51
suspicion of misconduct in public office
00:02:53
by British police. You know he should be
00:02:57
arrested for something else but this is
00:02:59
what they could get him on. The full
00:03:00
details of the arrest are not clear at
00:03:02
the time of the taping but former prince
00:03:03
has been under increasing pressure after
00:03:05
the latest release of the Epstein files.
00:03:07
Andrew Moundbotton Moundbatton Windsor
00:03:10
which is his name was previously
00:03:11
stripped of his royal title due to his
00:03:14
uh involvement with Epstein mean finally
00:03:16
after many many years of this. Meanwhile
00:03:18
Casey Wasserman has decided to put his
00:03:20
talent agency and marketing firm up for
00:03:21
sale amidst criticism his past
00:03:23
relationship with Gilain Maxwell. Uh
00:03:25
there's a ton of people Dean there's so
00:03:27
I sent you the list of people that are
00:03:29
you know obviously um uh Larry what's
00:03:33
his name Larry oh Summers uh stepped
00:03:36
down Dean Cayman is having trouble he's
00:03:39
the famous robotics guy um all all
00:03:41
manner of people the former prime
00:03:43
minister of Norway um everyone but the
00:03:46
guy who said they let you do it grab the
00:03:49
[ __ ] guy is not being investigated but
00:03:51
uh this is really interesting so from
00:03:53
you're not in England right now. But
00:03:55
what explain to people what this is
00:03:57
like, what this this is akin to
00:03:59
arresting a royal.
00:04:01
>> I think the UK just demonstrated more
00:04:04
institutional courage in one morning
00:04:06
than the entire US Department of Justice
00:04:08
has managed in 5 years.
00:04:10
>> Yeah.
00:04:11
>> And
00:04:13
it's just ironic. You know, my attitude
00:04:15
is, okay, now do Epstein's flight logs.
00:04:20
I mean,
00:04:20
>> yep. This is I mean some of it's
00:04:23
probably pretty political. The the crown
00:04:25
is probably looking to try and renew
00:04:29
their brand in an era where monarchies
00:04:31
are fading. This really is the last
00:04:33
monarchy
00:04:34
>> and also the prime minister is feeling
00:04:38
heat and potentially calls for his
00:04:40
resignation. But I think that I think
00:04:43
the UK quite frankly is actually
00:04:47
showing some fidelity to the notion that
00:04:49
no one is above the law. Yep.
00:04:51
Absolutely. I I agree. One of the things
00:04:53
that's really that's really important is
00:04:56
the investigation should have gone on.
00:04:58
These investigations that should have
00:04:59
happened when how badly prosecutors over
00:05:02
the entire period of time um from down
00:05:05
in Florida to now have [ __ ] this up.
00:05:08
And in terms of I think the moment with
00:05:09
Pam Bonnie and she had never talked to
00:05:11
those people like all of them are liars
00:05:14
like I don't know why don't you do an
00:05:16
investigation? And so she's obviously
00:05:18
not going to because she's bought and
00:05:19
paid for. But um but the fact that they
00:05:22
didn't do investigations here on as you
00:05:25
say the people who are criminally liable
00:05:27
and the other people who are getting you
00:05:28
know Bill Gates had a pull out of
00:05:30
something because of this look that'll
00:05:33
play itself out because that's about I
00:05:34
don't think it's about shaming. It's
00:05:36
about like gh bad judgment. People are
00:05:38
going to have to pay for their actions
00:05:40
eventually. Um, but the criminal
00:05:43
investigations that haven't gone on
00:05:45
here, the the ability and I have to say
00:05:47
we owe a debt of gratitude to uh uh Roan
00:05:50
and Thomas Massie for pushing
00:05:52
>> this through and we need and the the
00:05:55
redactions that this Bondi Justice
00:05:57
Department is doing are you know there
00:06:00
Ted Lou who is a a trained lawyer got up
00:06:03
and said there is credible evidence that
00:06:05
Donald Trump um this is what he is
00:06:07
saying. I have not seen these things
00:06:09
that he he uh he
00:06:13
sexually uh attack sex what is the right
00:06:15
way to do
00:06:15
>> assaulted
00:06:16
>> assaulted an underage girl and for him
00:06:20
to get up and say that at knowing that
00:06:22
he's a lawyer is really something like
00:06:26
and of course Trump is saying he's
00:06:27
exonerated he's not exonerated he hasn't
00:06:29
been investigated properly right and so
00:06:32
you know when he said let me just read
00:06:33
this again maybe just maybe um as this
00:06:38
fedded penny drops. Maybe it wasn't
00:06:40
locker room talk, right? Do you remember
00:06:42
that? I mean, this is what he said. Let
00:06:44
me read it. I don't even wait. And when
00:06:46
you're a star, they let you do it. You
00:06:49
can do anything. Grab them by the [ __ ]
00:06:51
You can do anything. I don't know if he
00:06:53
did anything, but I'd like to have
00:06:55
investigators really. I don't know if
00:06:57
they need an independent investigator or
00:07:00
>> special counsel.
00:07:01
>> Special to me. I never like those
00:07:02
things, but in this case, everybody's
00:07:04
dirty, right? And certainly Pam Body has
00:07:07
no business being in the job she's in.
00:07:10
They should they should have a special
00:07:11
counsel release all the files and
00:07:14
especially the criminal stuff keep it as
00:07:17
maybe not release those because they
00:07:19
really need to and it might not lead to
00:07:21
anything but to show that we have what
00:07:23
the UK is doing and it there may be a
00:07:25
statute of limitations by the way Scott
00:07:28
on this stuff. I don't know.
00:07:29
>> That's what's kind of interesting about
00:07:31
this specific case with Prince Andrew is
00:07:33
that or the person formerly known as
00:07:35
Prince Yeah, the
00:07:37
>> I know it is kind of funny, but he's not
00:07:39
funny. He's gross.
00:07:40
>> But when when the feds come for you and
00:07:42
say you've clearly committed engage in
00:07:44
criminal activity here, they usually
00:07:46
don't get you for what you know they
00:07:48
didn't. They got Al Capone for
00:07:50
moneyaundering or for for
00:07:51
>> No, no. For taxation.
00:07:52
>> Yeah. For tax evasion.
00:07:53
>> And Prince Andrew isn't being accused of
00:07:55
sexual assault. He's being accused of
00:07:58
passing state secrets to a convicted uh
00:08:01
felon. But that's the point. The point
00:08:04
is if you commit crimes our you know our
00:08:07
reach is far and our memory
00:08:09
uh is long and now I have a different to
00:08:14
me this is how you handle the Epstein
00:08:16
files and that is I don't think the
00:08:19
Epstein files should have been released
00:08:21
>> uh I think that the Department of
00:08:23
Justice
00:08:23
>> gets sullied I I know what you're
00:08:25
thinking right
00:08:26
>> I think the Department of Justice and a
00:08:28
team of lawyers including outside
00:08:30
lawyers contracted for this very
00:08:31
important case should have gone through
00:08:33
these things with a fine tooth hair and
00:08:35
comb and said, "Okay,
00:08:37
we're going to communicate to the public
00:08:40
what is in these files visav grand jury
00:08:42
indictments and prosecutions."
00:08:44
Because I think what has happened is
00:08:47
I think we have been so played here.
00:08:49
Cara, if I was advising the Trump
00:08:51
administration on how to dilute
00:08:54
the depravity here and to get him out of
00:08:57
this, I would be doing exactly what
00:08:59
they're doing. And that is by dripping
00:09:02
it out sclerotically
00:09:05
uh uh incorrectly. Some stuff's
00:09:08
redacted, some stuff isn't. And then we
00:09:11
all chase. We're like a Tyrannosaurus
00:09:13
Rex. Wherever we see movement and
00:09:14
violence and ringlight algorithm
00:09:17
shaming, we start talking about [ __ ]
00:09:20
Deepo Chopra.
00:09:22
>> And what the
00:09:23
>> We should talk about him too, but go
00:09:24
ahead.
00:09:24
>> I I disagree. I I think it's it's the
00:09:27
Department of Justice is a there for
00:09:29
criminal indictments and to create
00:09:31
incentives such that if you have a
00:09:32
daughter and you're a single mother and
00:09:34
your daughter gets invited to some
00:09:36
[ __ ] island that there's incentives
00:09:38
that people who feel entitled to rape
00:09:40
your daughter won't. Yes.
00:09:42
>> Whether or not someone is a creep or not
00:09:43
is a distant distant second. And all of
00:09:47
this [ __ ] has diluted the criminal
00:09:49
activity.
00:09:49
>> I don't think it's [ __ ] I think
00:09:50
it's part of the same thing. And this is
00:09:52
like, let me just say, who's the person
00:09:53
that said Epstein had legs? This whole
00:09:55
thing had legs a long time ago when
00:09:57
everyone thought it was going to go
00:09:58
away. This is one at the heart of the
00:10:00
MAGA infrastructure. As I noted, it is
00:10:03
also at the heart of a lot of it's true,
00:10:05
right? Some of it's true, some of it's
00:10:07
not, but it is part of a whole
00:10:10
movement around corruption of the
00:10:12
elites. And this is the worst version of
00:10:14
it. And I think we do need to talk about
00:10:17
people. Andrew did this because he
00:10:20
>> I'm on board. And Andrew is being
00:10:21
criminally prosecuted.
00:10:23
>> But I'm saying he did it because he
00:10:24
thought he didn't, as you say, he's not
00:10:26
bound by the law. Right. Right. Now,
00:10:28
breaking. New Mexico investigators open
00:10:30
a probe into whether Epste ordered the
00:10:32
burial of bodies on his Zoro Ranch
00:10:33
property. We need to investigate this
00:10:36
fully and wherever it takes us for for
00:10:38
it to have to just get out and get
00:10:40
everyone's attention, the normal people,
00:10:42
not the QAnon people. I think it's I
00:10:44
think this has so many drip drip drip
00:10:47
legs that it's going to is absolutely
00:10:50
going to reach Trump.
00:10:50
>> This should have been dozens if not
00:10:52
hundreds of indictments and prosecutions
00:10:55
from an institution we trust.
00:10:57
>> That's right. We don't trust the
00:10:59
appointment of a special counsel.
00:11:02
>> Saying a cabinet member didn't look to
00:11:05
commit a crime, but when he went under
00:11:07
oath in front of Congress and bragged
00:11:10
that he had nothing to do with this
00:11:11
person.
00:11:11
>> No, he did that on a podcast, but go
00:11:13
ahead.
00:11:13
>> Well, he he Oh, really? He hasn't done
00:11:16
it under oath?
00:11:17
>> No. No, under oath he told the truth.
00:11:20
Um, so
00:11:23
I feel that all of the liar I feel all
00:11:26
of the shaming feels really good and it
00:11:28
does say something about these
00:11:29
individuals. I think it is deliluding
00:11:31
and weakening the case against the
00:11:33
actual criminals here.
00:11:34
>> Well, I don't know. I think you can do
00:11:36
both. I can can just walk and chew gum
00:11:37
at the same time. And well, I think, as
00:11:40
I saying, let me move to the next thing
00:11:41
because it's part of this everyone's
00:11:43
tired of these [ __ ] rich people
00:11:45
taking everything. Like so right now
00:11:47
Mark Zuckerberg took the stand this week
00:11:49
that in this landmark social media
00:11:51
addiction trial defending Meta against
00:11:53
claims Instagram was designed to hook
00:11:54
young users and damage mental health.
00:11:56
Zuckerberg said in his testimony that
00:11:58
Instagram was not a harmful product.
00:11:59
It's a valuable service. Of course he'd
00:12:01
say that. He said that all along. He
00:12:02
believes he's navigated the safety of
00:12:04
young users in a reasonable way. He has
00:12:06
not. He also defended the company's
00:12:08
decision to allow beauty filters even
00:12:10
after experts warned they could harm
00:12:12
teen girls, including people internally.
00:12:14
Um, when pressed about old emails and
00:12:16
growth targets, Zuckerberg repeatedly
00:12:17
pushed back saying the same answer more
00:12:19
than a dozen times. You're
00:12:20
mischaracterizing this. This is an old
00:12:22
Mark Zuckerberg trick. We don't
00:12:23
understand him. Uh, neither of us are
00:12:26
lawyers and it's a really complex case.
00:12:27
And what what what two things it's not
00:12:30
just Facebook, it is also YouTube is
00:12:32
involved in this one. Others settled
00:12:34
other social media sites seem to have
00:12:36
settled here. Um, so and it's not clear
00:12:38
if YouTube is going to settle before
00:12:40
this, but this idea of of whether
00:12:42
they're entertainment or they're
00:12:44
actually addictive. The lawyers for the
00:12:46
the tech company sides are going to try
00:12:49
to portray this young woman who got on
00:12:51
Instagram when she was nine as troubled
00:12:54
had nothing to do with social media.
00:12:55
She's alleging that social media dragged
00:12:57
her down a hole of shame and
00:13:00
self-esteem. Um, it's a jury trial. Um,
00:13:05
I'm putting Mark in front of a jury
00:13:07
helps a herds. He's he's not great at
00:13:09
that. And he also, the judge wasn't
00:13:11
happy to see Meta's Rayban AI glasses
00:13:13
worn by several members of Zuckerberg's
00:13:15
team, which I thought was super [ __ ]
00:13:17
obnoxious to do for Zuckerberg to use it
00:13:19
as a marketing event. Um, she warned
00:13:21
anyone wearing smart glasses to be held
00:13:23
in contempt, noting the concern about
00:13:24
facial recognition of the of it. Um, so
00:13:28
just thoughts on this case because I
00:13:30
think it's really f there's there's
00:13:31
thousands of more behind it. By the way,
00:13:33
>> I think John Oaf who's running for
00:13:35
Senate has come up with a brilliant term
00:13:38
and that is a lot of Democrat how we
00:13:41
lose is this stereotyping and and
00:13:44
keyboard virtue signaling that if you
00:13:46
like all white people are racist, all
00:13:49
billionaires are evil, and all young men
00:13:51
are sexist, fine, they're going to leave
00:13:53
the party and we're going to and you're
00:13:54
going to have Vance as president. What
00:13:56
Osaf has done is really smart. He has
00:13:58
started describing this group of people
00:14:00
as he doesn't say the billionaire class,
00:14:02
he says the Epstein class. Because the
00:14:06
majority of Americans like the idea of
00:14:08
being rich someday and believe that if
00:14:11
they get richer, it doesn't necessarily
00:14:12
mean they're going to become depraved
00:14:14
weirdos.
00:14:15
So I think that is a really powerful
00:14:17
distinction that there is a class of
00:14:19
people
00:14:21
most rich people I do not believe are
00:14:23
like this but there is a class of people
00:14:25
who believe they are again as we talk
00:14:28
about
00:14:29
>> um protected by the law but not bound by
00:14:30
it. There's smoking guns everywhere but
00:14:32
the the real smoking gun I would focus
00:14:34
on if I were advising the prosecution
00:14:38
>> is their own internal research.
00:14:40
>> So let's go through a body.
00:14:42
>> It's not a prosecution. It's a it's a
00:14:43
law civil lawsuit. It's civil, but the
00:14:45
pe but the people the plaintiff's
00:14:48
attorney or whatever you would call
00:14:50
their own internal research regarding
00:14:52
body image harm. We make body image
00:14:54
issues worse for one in three teen
00:14:56
girls. This is according to a 2019
00:14:58
internal Meta presentation. 32% of teen
00:15:01
girls said that when they felt bad about
00:15:03
their bodies, Instagram made them feel
00:15:04
worse. That was a March 2020 internal
00:15:07
presentation. Meta's leaked internal
00:15:09
research showed that 32% of teen girls,
00:15:12
one-third, said Instagram made them feel
00:15:14
worse about their bodies and the company
00:15:16
knew it. Addiction by design. Meta
00:15:19
employee internal message. I I worry
00:15:22
that driving sess session incentivize us
00:15:24
to make our products more addictive
00:15:25
without providing much more value. How
00:15:27
to keep someone returning over and over
00:15:28
the same behavior each day. Intermittent
00:15:31
rewards are most effective. Think slot
00:15:33
machines. In focus groups, teens told us
00:15:36
they didn't like the amount of time they
00:15:37
spent on the app and they felt like they
00:15:39
had to be present. They often felt
00:15:40
addicted and know that what they're
00:15:42
seeing is bad for their mental health,
00:15:44
but feels but they feel unable to stop
00:15:48
themselves. On depression and anxiety,
00:15:50
teens blame Instagram for increases in
00:15:52
the rate of anxiety and depression said
00:15:54
another slide in a 2019 presentation.
00:15:57
This reaction was unprompted and
00:15:59
consistent across all groups. This is
00:16:03
their own research.
00:16:05
>> They also their own research showed they
00:16:07
have 4 million kids between 10 and 12 on
00:16:11
the platform when it's not supposed to.
00:16:12
13 is when they're not they didn't have
00:16:15
age age verification which isn't very
00:16:17
good anyway on the platform until 2019.
00:16:21
They This is what kills me with these
00:16:23
people. It's like how did how did four
00:16:26
million It's like oh four million kids
00:16:27
got into liquor stores somehow. Are you
00:16:30
[ __ ] kidding me? Four million kids.
00:16:32
How did that happen without them knowing
00:16:34
it? When they know everything that is
00:16:36
happening on that platform whenever they
00:16:38
go into this I don't you know kids can
00:16:41
get into things. You know my kid just
00:16:43
got into the refrigerator and took a you
00:16:45
know took a cookie the other day. That's
00:16:47
what they act like and in their own Let
00:16:50
me tell you I can't tell you how many
00:16:52
times
00:16:54
I have heranged Mark Zuckerberg on
00:16:56
safety and people inside the company
00:16:59
heranged him on safety. He just didn't
00:17:02
agree. And because he it cannot be
00:17:05
fired. If the board decides to fire him,
00:17:07
he can fire the board and appoint a new
00:17:09
board that likes him. He he can make
00:17:12
decisions on his own. And we are all
00:17:13
subject to decisions of one person who
00:17:16
has no accountability on him because
00:17:19
been making bad decisions whether it's
00:17:20
about anti-semitism, whether it's about
00:17:23
uh anything. And he always and he did
00:17:24
this again. And I I sighed I sighed for
00:17:27
free speech or not, you know, the filter
00:17:29
thing like, well, I decided not to act
00:17:31
paternalistic. Okay, Mark, don't act
00:17:34
paternalistic to toward adult users. We
00:17:37
get it. But you absolutely have to act
00:17:39
paternalistic towards young people. Like
00:17:42
the the safety issues about young the
00:17:45
fact that they still stick to their
00:17:46
idiotic guns when it comes to young
00:17:48
people. Let me mention another big tech
00:17:50
suit that just broke. Apple just got
00:17:52
sued by West Virginia for alleged
00:17:54
failure to curb child sexual abuse
00:17:56
materials on iOS devices and cloud
00:17:58
services. They should sue Grock. They
00:18:00
should sue all of them for these things.
00:18:03
And this is the way these companies are
00:18:05
going to go down like the cigarette
00:18:07
companies. And they still to me and I'll
00:18:10
stop ranting. His testimony show me once
00:18:13
again he is absolutely intractable in
00:18:15
his decision that everything he decides
00:18:18
is correct. And he it is simply not. It
00:18:21
is simply not. And let me be fair,
00:18:23
YouTube is bigger, but I it's all the
00:18:26
same to me. They're all enormous and
00:18:29
delotterious to the impact on our kids.
00:18:31
Period.
00:18:32
>> Just one more piece of data. Between
00:18:34
2010 and 2015, the number of 8th grade
00:18:36
through 12th graders exhibiting high
00:18:38
levels of depressive symptoms increased
00:18:40
by 33%. In the same period, the suicide
00:18:44
rate for girls in that age group
00:18:45
increased by 65%.
00:18:48
By 2015, 92% of teens owned a
00:18:52
smartphone. And today, here and now,
00:18:54
let's talk a little bit about young men.
00:18:56
Young men between the ages of 20 and 30
00:18:58
are spending less time outdoors than
00:19:01
prison inmates.
00:19:03
The data here, there are hundreds, if
00:19:06
not thousands of families whose kids
00:19:08
have killed themselves. There are
00:19:11
millions of families struggling with
00:19:13
anxiety and depression. And there's a
00:19:16
lot of different factors here, but this
00:19:18
definitively has made things worse.
00:19:21
The the good news is that I do think
00:19:25
finally, and I've said this before and
00:19:26
I've been wrong, but I'm going to say it
00:19:28
again. I think the worm has turned. And
00:19:30
that is typically it takes 20 to 30
00:19:32
years before the public moves in on a
00:19:36
well-funded addictive substance that is
00:19:39
creating harm across our society. It
00:19:41
took us 30 years with tobacco. It took
00:19:43
us 20 years with opiates. It looks like
00:19:46
it's going to take us about 20 years
00:19:47
here. But what you're seeing is it's
00:19:50
getting tied up in politics in sort of a
00:19:52
good way. And that is I think the
00:19:54
tariffs I think the ultimate reciprocal
00:19:56
tariff from different nations is going
00:19:58
to be they're going to start banning uh
00:19:59
US tech companies and they're going to
00:20:01
use this as a valid excuse. They're
00:20:04
going to say you're out. We're age
00:20:06
gating. We're banning this or where
00:20:07
they're going to ban an entire platform.
00:20:09
But it does feel like we're we are at a
00:20:11
turning point.
00:20:13
>> Well, the only this is a jury trial.
00:20:14
This is what's really interesting
00:20:15
because what I think is going to be the
00:20:16
problem for them is and by the way
00:20:18
sometimes like when some of the the FTC
00:20:20
stuff I see why Facebook or whatever
00:20:23
company won in certain ones of them,
00:20:24
right? But jury members either they have
00:20:28
kids and get it
00:20:30
>> know it at in their bones or they
00:20:32
themselves are addicted and call it
00:20:35
problematic usage when it's everybody
00:20:38
who you I'm addicted to food videos on
00:20:41
your on threads, Mark. I can't stop
00:20:43
watching them. And I am not an
00:20:45
addictive. I don't drink. I don't take
00:20:47
drugs. I am
00:20:49
>> absolutely addicted. There is no
00:20:51
question in my mind. And same with you,
00:20:53
right?
00:20:54
>> Some of it's good.
00:20:56
>> Some of it's good. And I use most of the
00:20:58
time I use I was looking at the time
00:20:59
spent. I use it for texting, like
00:21:00
bothering you, for example. But um but a
00:21:03
lot of it is addiction. And this jury is
00:21:05
going to hand you your head if you keep
00:21:08
insisting it's problematic usage. We
00:21:11
don't think you're totally at fault. I'm
00:21:13
sure this this poor girl had problems in
00:21:15
her family life, but this is a
00:21:17
contributing factor. Just like people
00:21:20
can have bad families and smoke
00:21:22
cigarettes,
00:21:24
it is it is part of of of a thing that
00:21:27
is making us worse as as as a country.
00:21:30
Um, and the same thing with Apple. They
00:21:31
should get sued. They should all get
00:21:33
sued and then we can have it out in
00:21:35
court. Same thing with the Epstein
00:21:37
victims and and the people and the
00:21:38
perpetrators. Let's have it all out in
00:21:40
court. Let's do it. Like if we lose, we
00:21:43
lose, but if we win, we win. And that to
00:21:45
me is the fairest thing.
00:21:46
>> I think we'll I think it'll start with
00:21:48
the kids. What I'm curious is if it
00:21:50
starts to
00:21:51
>> melt upwards, and that is
00:21:53
>> like cigarettes.
00:21:54
>> Well, the kids are the biggest problem,
00:21:55
right? And that's the one we're most
00:21:56
sensitive to.
00:21:58
>> That's where cigarettes started. But go
00:21:59
ahead.
00:22:00
>> I also think there's a real issue around
00:22:02
the coarsening of our discourse. I think
00:22:04
it's making us all more anxious and
00:22:06
making us all hate each other more. I
00:22:08
think I if if you type into open AI how
00:22:11
to ruin youth or how to undermine the
00:22:14
power of the United States both times
00:22:17
it'll come back with something that
00:22:18
resembles social media. There's just
00:22:21
people there's a reason and a lot of
00:22:23
it's economic that young people feel
00:22:24
worse and worse about America. But
00:22:27
social media is basically it's like when
00:22:29
you're in the third grade and two kids
00:22:31
start having words and everyone
00:22:32
surrounds them and shoves them and says
00:22:34
fight encourages them to fight. That's
00:22:37
happening a trillion times a day on
00:22:38
these platforms. It's turning even
00:22:40
amongst I spending a lot I'm thinking a
00:22:42
lot about how ways the left might [ __ ]
00:22:44
it up and lose in 26 and 28.
00:22:48
And one of those one of those ways is
00:22:50
the algorithms do a really good job of
00:22:54
convincing people who agree on 90% of
00:22:57
things to find the 10% they don't agree
00:22:59
on and figure out a way to get them
00:23:01
fighting and hating each other. You
00:23:04
know, it's just it really is ripping at
00:23:06
the fabric of society. I I I think our
00:23:09
adversaries are sitting back and
00:23:11
watching this and just loving it.
00:23:12
>> Yeah. I'm going to read from a very
00:23:14
famous author. Let me just read this.
00:23:16
All these companies began with a grozy
00:23:18
credo to change the world. But they have
00:23:20
done that in ways they did not imagine
00:23:22
by weaponizing pretty much everything
00:23:23
that could be weaponized. They have
00:23:25
mutated human connection so that
00:23:26
connecting people has often to become
00:23:28
about pitting them against one another
00:23:30
and turbocharged that discord into an
00:23:32
unprecedented and damaging volume. They
00:23:34
have weaponized social media. They have
00:23:35
weaponized the first amendment. They
00:23:37
have weaponized civil discourse and they
00:23:39
have weaponized most of all politics. I
00:23:42
wrote that in 2018. I got screamed at by
00:23:45
Facebook and the tech people for saying
00:23:46
that they were digital arms dealers.
00:23:48
That's what they are.
00:23:50
>> Have your time.
00:23:51
>> I'm just telling you it's just like
00:23:53
enough. Enough. And it begins, the
00:23:55
cigarette companies began with Joel
00:23:58
Camel, them using cartoons. They were
00:24:00
that cynical that they use cartoons to
00:24:02
attract kids to smoke. It's the same
00:24:05
thing and they need to stop. And same
00:24:08
thing, and by the way, let me not just
00:24:09
pick on Mark Zuckerberg. Apple, you need
00:24:12
to do something about CS Sam Gro, you
00:24:15
should be taken to court. Google, you
00:24:18
YouTube needs to be fixed in ways that
00:24:21
people kids don't become incredibly
00:24:23
addicted to what you're doing. And to
00:24:25
pretend otherwise just because you have
00:24:27
money, you can run over all these
00:24:29
senators and congressmen, you're not
00:24:30
going to run over all of us. That's my
00:24:32
feel. Anyway, that's enough. I'm going
00:24:33
to stop. All right, we're going to go on
00:24:34
a quick break. When we get back, Cole
00:24:36
Bayer takes on Paramount and the FCC.
00:24:40
>> Support for the show comes from
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Rules and restrictions apply.
00:27:01
Scott, we're back. Late night host
00:27:03
Steven Cobear is calling out CBS and his
00:27:06
parent company Paramount for not
00:27:07
standing up to the bullies. Colbear
00:27:09
revealed this week that CBS lawyers told
00:27:11
him he could not air an interview with
00:27:13
Texas Democratic Senate candidate James
00:27:14
Telerico. Uh there were concerns about
00:27:17
running a foul of FCC Chairman Brandon
00:27:19
Carr, the [ __ ] as I like to call him,
00:27:21
and the FCC's equal time rule. Colobar
00:27:23
ended up posting the interview on
00:27:25
YouTube where as of this recording it
00:27:26
has nearly 7.5 million views. The
00:27:29
broadcast typically gets around 2.5
00:27:31
million viewers. This is just one single
00:27:32
interview. Coar summed up the irony on
00:27:35
his Tuesday episode. Let's listen.
00:27:39
So, we obeyed our network and put the
00:27:41
interview on YouTube where it's gotten
00:27:44
millions of views.
00:27:49
And and I I can see why. Taler Rico is
00:27:53
an interesting guy. I don't know what if
00:27:54
he should be the senator, but it was a
00:27:56
good discussion. I wish we could have
00:27:58
put it on the show where no one would
00:28:00
have watched it.
00:28:02
>> Uh CBS initially, they've been very
00:28:04
quiet lately, has been pushing back on
00:28:05
Cobar's version of events, saying the
00:28:07
show was not prohibited from airing the
00:28:08
Telerico and UNV, but was given legal
00:28:11
guidance and options. I've been in that
00:28:13
sphere. Coar took issue with that
00:28:15
statement, calling it crap, and it
00:28:16
indeed is crap. All of this has been a
00:28:19
major boost for Telerico who raised more
00:28:21
than $2.5 million uh dollars in the
00:28:23
first 24 hours after the interview went
00:28:24
on YouTube. Uh Brandon Carr, the [ __ ]
00:28:27
is calling it a hoax, by the way, saying
00:28:29
Telerico did this for the purpose of
00:28:30
raising money and getting clicks. Except
00:28:32
he then uh on this interview he did, I
00:28:35
think it was on Fox, uh said, "Oh, I
00:28:36
would have enforced it." So, he said he
00:28:38
would have done what they what what Coar
00:28:40
said he would have done. Um and then
00:28:42
also noted that this fair this this the
00:28:45
way he's in trying to thinking about
00:28:47
enforcing this equal time rule has not
00:28:50
been done in forever. So he just
00:28:52
admitted every calling it a hoax and
00:28:54
then admitted he was going to do exactly
00:28:55
what they said he was going to do.
00:28:57
Again, a [ __ ] Um and he thought this
00:29:00
is like some story like and I love Co
00:29:02
Bear I think is handling it beautifully.
00:29:04
I don't think he's being too virtue
00:29:05
signalally, but it is definitely a nail
00:29:07
in the coffin for broadcast television.
00:29:10
>> Yeah. Just to step back and try and
00:29:12
understand the real dynamics and the the
00:29:14
the shape of power here because we've
00:29:17
moved from a democracy and capitalism to
00:29:19
an autocracy and kletocracy. This is
00:29:21
what's going on. The president has made
00:29:23
it clear he will exercise his authority
00:29:26
unilaterally and illegally in my view to
00:29:29
decide who gets to acquire which
00:29:31
companies. And essentially he has
00:29:35
decided that okay um if the Ellison's
00:29:40
who own Paramount and CBS
00:29:44
fly their partisan proTrump flag, I will
00:29:48
figure out a way to get them Time
00:29:50
Warner. And so they are very sensitive
00:29:53
to trying to not offend him, plate him,
00:29:56
do whatever he wants regardless of the
00:29:58
First Amendment. And the the excuse
00:30:01
they're using is the following. The
00:30:04
FCC's equal time rule is a federal law
00:30:06
that requires broadcast stations to
00:30:08
provide equivalent air time to all
00:30:11
legally qualified candidates for the
00:30:12
same political office.
00:30:15
That theoretically makes sense, right?
00:30:18
Historically though, the FCC has
00:30:21
exempted many entertainment talk shows
00:30:24
and now they've decided to update this
00:30:26
and they're selectively enforcing it.
00:30:27
And by the way, folks, curiously, FCC
00:30:30
Chairman Carr has not yet attempted to
00:30:32
apply these rules to any conservative
00:30:36
talk shows.
00:30:37
>> He's he's sued the he's he's
00:30:38
investigating The View just on ABC for
00:30:41
having
00:30:42
>> The View and Coar,
00:30:43
>> by the way, has had Jasmine Crockett on
00:30:46
and probably asked right-wing people.
00:30:48
>> This is so ridiculous. But this is what
00:30:50
has happened. There's a decent chance
00:30:52
that FCC Chair Carr has given uh
00:30:57
Representative Taler Rico a decent shot
00:31:00
at being a senator in Texas. Now,
00:31:03
>> this has done nothing but bolster Torico
00:31:06
raised $2.5 million in the subsequent 48
00:31:09
hours. The
00:31:10
>> the big loser here is the FCC and Trump.
00:31:14
This has backfired. This is blown up in
00:31:16
their face. The Ellison, the Ellison's
00:31:19
are now now sitting on top of a
00:31:22
collapsing asset,
00:31:23
>> right?
00:31:24
>> And in addition, the other loser here,
00:31:26
just quite frankly, is Jasmine Crockett
00:31:28
>> because she she came out, unfortunately,
00:31:33
this has elevated Terico and Colbear to
00:31:36
hero status. And Crockett wishes she was
00:31:39
the one that got, you know, that got
00:31:41
sort of blacklisted, right? Cuz they
00:31:44
were running neck andneck. And the
00:31:45
likelihood according to the prediction
00:31:47
markets that
00:31:49
>> well it wasn't quite neck and neck. It
00:31:50
was like 60 40 and now pretty close I
00:31:53
think.
00:31:54
>> No no the prediction markets were he was
00:31:56
winning quite substantively but not as
00:31:58
much.
00:31:59
>> He went from 63 to 77.
00:32:02
>> Yeah. Right. That's that's
00:32:03
>> 63 is a lot. Right. That's
00:32:07
I mean that's basically when you're at
00:32:10
77 it's kind of said or it's getting to
00:32:13
the point where it looks like the race
00:32:15
may be over.
00:32:16
>> There's also early voting going on and
00:32:17
Democratic voting is alltime high. It's
00:32:20
crazy high and it's surpassing
00:32:21
Republicans. I'm going to link it
00:32:22
speaking of the Ellison's one two
00:32:24
things. Warner Brothers Discovery this
00:32:27
let me just tell you David maybe this
00:32:28
media thing isn't your best look. Warner
00:32:31
Brothers Discovery is reopening
00:32:32
negotiations with Paramount for the best
00:32:34
and final offer, but the clock is
00:32:36
ticking. Netflix has granted Warner a
00:32:37
seven-day waiver for these Paramount
00:32:39
talks. The deadline is February 23rd. Uh
00:32:41
Zazov wrote to Paramount's board that
00:32:44
David Zazov, who's the CEO, Warner, uh
00:32:46
welcomes the opportunity to see whether
00:32:47
the company can expeditiously deliver a
00:32:49
proposal that provides superior value,
00:32:51
meaning he's not calling it superior
00:32:53
value. Paramount has indicated it will
00:32:55
raise its bid to $31 a share and has
00:32:57
agreed to cover Warner's $2.5 billion
00:32:59
breakup fee owed uh to Netflix, which it
00:33:01
should have done in the first [ __ ]
00:33:02
place. A lot of these things they've
00:33:03
just agreed to, they should have done
00:33:05
months ago. Uh Netflix CE co-CEO Ted
00:33:08
Sandos explained why he agreed to this
00:33:09
in an interview with CNBC. Let's listen.
00:33:12
>> We gave them the opportunity to get
00:33:14
those shareholders exactly what they
00:33:16
deserve, which is complete clarity and
00:33:18
certainty about what the value of these
00:33:20
deals are. What we're certain is is that
00:33:22
the Netflix deal to acquire these assets
00:33:24
is the best deal creates generates the
00:33:26
best value for their shareholders and
00:33:28
they think so too. That's why they
00:33:30
recommended the deal and why they
00:33:31
reiterated recommending that deal post
00:33:33
this. So give them seven days to put
00:33:35
their money where their mouth is.
00:33:36
>> He's so smart. I got to say the other
00:33:38
part before you go in um uh they have to
00:33:42
they have to basically they have to give
00:33:43
more money. Really that's if they give
00:33:45
more money they'll probably get it. That
00:33:46
said, there's been a really, you know,
00:33:48
even though most of the narrative has
00:33:49
been anti-Netflix with Paramount has
00:33:51
done quite a bit of the making that
00:33:53
happen. Uh, this idea that they will
00:33:55
have to cut uh Paramount will be
00:33:57
disastrous because they're going to have
00:33:59
to cut because of the finances here.
00:34:01
They will they will decimate um
00:34:03
employment in Hollywood and Netflix will
00:34:05
not there both of them face different
00:34:08
challenges uh both regulatory and what's
00:34:11
going to happen. Warner Brothers has
00:34:12
scheduled the shareholder vote on the
00:34:14
Netflix deal from March 20th. Um, we'll
00:34:16
see what happens. Uh, David Ellison was
00:34:18
at the White House last week, by the
00:34:20
way. This after Trump said in an
00:34:21
interview he wasn't involved in the
00:34:22
deal. Who knows? Um, and let me link
00:34:25
this to Anderson Cooper. He's leaving 60
00:34:27
Minutes, which is a CBS property after
00:34:29
20 years. Uh, he's still at CNN, of
00:34:32
course. He signed a big deal with an $18
00:34:33
million deal with them recently. So if
00:34:36
this deal works out for parent, they
00:34:38
could take Warner's cable properties and
00:34:39
right find himself back. The reason he
00:34:42
did so was he said he was to spend time
00:34:44
with his family. He didn't want to work
00:34:45
with Barry Weiss. That I know this to be
00:34:47
true. Um he didn't like where 60 Minutes
00:34:50
was going and he he also didn't like
00:34:52
what was happening to his colleagues.
00:34:53
He's a he's a great journalist and he
00:34:56
just didn't want to work with these
00:34:57
people. So because he thinks I I would
00:35:00
assume he thinks they're lesser than and
00:35:01
and they are compared to him. So, uh,
00:35:04
another high-profile exit, not just
00:35:06
Anderson, Taylor Sheridan left, uh, who
00:35:09
does Yellowstone. Um, a lot of messes
00:35:12
there, both in the news division and
00:35:14
obviously with Coar. He's he'll be
00:35:15
leaving in May. Uh, your thoughts on on
00:35:18
these two things with the Ellisons. They
00:35:20
seem to be really, they may still win
00:35:22
it, but boy, they
00:35:23
>> First off, the way this is supposed to
00:35:25
work in a capitalist society is the
00:35:27
person who shows up with the biggest bag
00:35:29
of money gets preliminary approval by
00:35:32
the shareholders and then it goes under
00:35:34
regulatory review to make sure that
00:35:35
there's not too great a concentration of
00:35:36
power.
00:35:37
>> In my view, neither of these companies
00:35:40
should be able to acquire Warner
00:35:41
Brothers because it's too much
00:35:42
concentration of power. Having said
00:35:44
that,
00:35:45
>> this is the world we live in. One of
00:35:46
them is going to get it. What's
00:35:48
interesting is that it's clearly now
00:35:49
such a kleptocracy
00:35:52
that on Khi the likelihood that
00:35:54
Paramount takes over WBB WBD because it
00:35:57
has become obvious that the president's
00:35:59
is doing the Ellison's bidding is now
00:36:02
53% and Netflix's odds have fallen to
00:36:05
just 36%.
00:36:08
So
00:36:10
>> neck to neck on poly market just so you
00:36:12
know but
00:36:12
>> Paramount has sweetened the deal. They
00:36:14
agreed to pay $2.8 8 billion fee the WB
00:36:17
WBD would owe Netflix if the merger
00:36:20
agreement falls apart. They also added a
00:36:23
uh ticking fee of 25 cents per share
00:36:25
paid to Warner shareholders for every
00:36:27
quarter that the deal isn't closed
00:36:28
starting next year and the total cash
00:36:30
bid was raised to 78 billion back in
00:36:33
December. Here's what I don't
00:36:35
understand.
00:36:37
the union SAG After and the Writers
00:36:40
Guild decide to strike at exactly the
00:36:44
wrong moment a couple couple years ago
00:36:47
and basically took everyone had everyone
00:36:50
not work for seven months in order to
00:36:52
get nothing in exchange when they they
00:36:55
decided to strike at a weak point and
00:36:57
yet now
00:36:59
you just referenced this if the
00:37:01
Ellison's own they've already overpaid
00:37:04
for Paramount which looks to be through
00:37:06
a serious I call it a leaky yacht,
00:37:09
>> which looks to be just one after the
00:37:11
other creating self-inflicted wounds
00:37:13
that they just unforced errors, ungoals,
00:37:16
whatever you want to call it, that are
00:37:17
substantially
00:37:18
reducing the equity value and showing
00:37:21
how much they did in fact overpay.
00:37:23
Whether it's CBS News going from 5
00:37:25
million viewers to 4 million in one week
00:37:27
after the anchor transition,
00:37:30
60 Minutes might go away. I mean, these
00:37:32
things literally
00:37:33
>> Why would you stick Why would you poke
00:37:35
that in the eye? that actually was
00:37:36
successful. Oh,
00:37:38
>> so they've overpaid for Paramount.
00:37:41
They're probably going to have to
00:37:42
overpay, and I understand why the
00:37:44
rationale for Warner such they can get
00:37:46
something resembling consolidation. But
00:37:48
hey, hey, writer's guild. Hey, Saga.
00:37:51
What the [ __ ] do you think Ellison, one
00:37:55
of the largest providers of inference
00:37:58
and compute for AI, what do you think
00:38:00
their idea is going to be to rationalize
00:38:04
costs and somehow get a return on
00:38:07
investment here? What do you think is
00:38:08
going to h say what you want about Ted
00:38:10
Sarandos? He's a disciplined operator.
00:38:12
He likes the old Hollywood model.
00:38:14
>> He likes
00:38:15
>> Well, some of it some of it he likes,
00:38:16
some of it he doesn't. Yeah, but he's
00:38:18
not. Oh my god,
00:38:19
>> he's they've got the theater owners in
00:38:21
there.
00:38:21
>> Compared compared to Larry Ellison.
00:38:24
>> Agreed.
00:38:25
>> He is in love with those makeup artists
00:38:28
and those
00:38:29
>> Larry Ellison is going to leave you
00:38:31
Hollywood people naked without
00:38:33
>> He's going to say, "I have an idea.
00:38:35
>> Going to I know them. You know,
00:38:36
>> let's take let's take the 40 movie
00:38:38
release with an average budget of $140
00:38:41
million
00:38:42
>> and let's do 60 million. Let's do 60
00:38:45
movies at 14 million each using AI.
00:38:48
>> That's right.
00:38:48
>> And where do those where do those cost
00:38:50
efficiencies come from?
00:38:52
>> That's correct.
00:38:53
>> Instead of having 18 costume designers
00:38:55
on the Fantastic 5, they're going to
00:38:57
have one in an enic layer.
00:38:59
>> And by the way, it'll probably be AI
00:39:02
slop. I don't think it'll work.
00:39:07
Warner Brothers film unit
00:39:14
production cost by 40% and it's all
00:39:16
going to come out of and where the [ __ ]
00:39:18
are I can't believe the unions aren't
00:39:20
like
00:39:21
>> it's Netflix or we are not
00:39:23
>> I think you're finally right about these
00:39:25
unions. I mean I I think it's not great.
00:39:27
Listen listen the theater issue is a big
00:39:29
one but you know what consumers don't
00:39:30
like the theaters as much. Listen to
00:39:32
consumers. It's not because that tech
00:39:35
did something. They did. They gave them
00:39:37
an alternative that consumer. We all
00:39:39
have our own theater now. It's at home.
00:39:40
What they should be caring about is the
00:39:42
economic livelihood of the people
00:39:43
actually producing the content.
00:39:44
>> Correct. But the issue is the expenses.
00:39:46
Like I was just as I said I did this
00:39:48
heated rivalry interview. I mean they
00:39:49
made that show which is an enormous hit
00:39:52
for which is by the way on HBO Max uh
00:39:55
for two two million to3.5 million an
00:39:59
episode. Stranger Things 50 to60 million
00:40:02
dollars an episode. I mean, and the
00:40:04
government helped pay for it. There's no
00:40:05
way our government's gonna help pay for
00:40:07
a gay hockey love story. But that said,
00:40:10
it's the economics are changing so
00:40:12
drastically, you don't even have to use
00:40:13
AI to understand you need to change the
00:40:15
economics. And let me tell you in no
00:40:18
uncertain terms, having covered Larry
00:40:20
Ellison for 30 years, he is going to do
00:40:23
what it takes. He is has no
00:40:26
sentimentality toward anything except
00:40:28
making more money and so he will do
00:40:31
whatever it takes and that includes
00:40:33
squeezing all of you and for his for his
00:40:36
benefit and I know David loves movies
00:40:39
etc etc but at some point uh this is not
00:40:42
a romantic fantasy of saving Hollywood
00:40:44
it's not that's what kills me and here's
00:40:47
the here's the thing I don't think the I
00:40:49
think the elins have misplayed this so
00:40:50
badly they've taken too long they should
00:40:52
have done all those things they just
00:40:54
agreed to months ago uh to make it
00:40:56
better. They should have increased the
00:40:58
price if they really wanted it. They're
00:41:00
they're being very cute here and all
00:41:02
they do is attack Netflix. They are very
00:41:05
prime for attack. And then meanwhile
00:41:07
over at CBS we're getting a preview of
00:41:10
their shitty management and their shitty
00:41:12
decisions whether it's Taylor Sher
00:41:14
Taylor Sheridan which I thought was in
00:41:16
massive miss Anderson Anderson Cooper
00:41:19
who you may end up buying the Ellison's
00:41:22
man buying and being his boss he cares
00:41:25
so little for them he's willing to quit
00:41:27
60 minutes and he's going to whatever
00:41:31
happens if they get if they become his
00:41:33
boss that's how much he doesn't like
00:41:34
them. He know he they could they could
00:41:37
end up being his boss in 15 minutes.
00:41:39
That that should tell you everything
00:41:42
about it is quality people don't want to
00:41:44
be affiliated with it. So I listen I
00:41:46
agree probably this consolidation is a
00:41:49
problem and and there probably was a
00:41:51
better
00:41:53
I don't know what the better deal here.
00:41:54
I thought the spin-off was the best idea
00:41:56
for now and then later they could sell
00:41:57
the film studio. That's was my feeling.
00:42:00
That was my feeling on the whole thing.
00:42:02
Um, but this is where it's headed and
00:42:04
the Ellison's are showing you exactly
00:42:07
how they manage a property and you
00:42:09
should pay attention to it.
00:42:10
>> I for the life of me, I can't figure out
00:42:11
why the unions haven't come out and
00:42:13
said, "If Paramount gets this, we're
00:42:15
out."
00:42:16
>> Yep.
00:42:16
>> We're out.
00:42:17
>> We're good luck. Good luck managing this
00:42:19
thing. Day one, day one after this
00:42:22
closes, we're shutting the whole [ __ ]
00:42:24
thing down.
00:42:24
>> Well,
00:42:25
>> no TV production, no attention to
00:42:27
people. You know, they offered Anderson
00:42:29
Cooper a fortune to run to be the head
00:42:31
of the to be the face of 60 Minutes and
00:42:33
he even he couldn't do business with
00:42:35
them. So, I'm just saying a lot of
00:42:37
money, you know, and by the way, he
00:42:40
should spend more time with his kids,
00:42:41
but that's not what happened here.
00:42:42
Anyway, although I think it's partial.
00:42:44
I'm sure that's partial. So, anyway, uh
00:42:46
let's go on a quick break. When we come
00:42:48
back, we'll talk about the Pentagon's
00:42:50
fight with anthropic. This is something
00:42:51
else.
00:42:53
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00:45:15
Scott, we're back with more news.
00:45:17
There's so much news, it's all
00:45:18
different. The Pentagon is considering
00:45:19
cutting ties with Anthropic amid a
00:45:21
dispute over how Claude can be used by
00:45:23
the military. Anthropic wants limits on
00:45:25
uses like for weaponry that fires
00:45:26
without human input and mass uh this
00:45:30
domestic surveillance seems reasonable,
00:45:31
but the Pentagon wants access for all
00:45:33
lawful purposes. Open a Google and XA
00:45:36
have agreed to have models deployed in
00:45:37
unlawful use cases. In principle, Pete
00:45:40
Hexath is reportedly also considering
00:45:41
labeling anthropic supply chain risk
00:45:43
which could force contractors seeking to
00:45:45
work with the US military to stop using
00:45:47
claws. Senior Pentagon official said the
00:45:49
change will be a pain in the ass and the
00:45:51
Pentagon would make sure Anthropic pays
00:45:53
a price. Pete is a [ __ ] idiot. He
00:45:56
just actually let go of someone who has
00:45:57
an incredible um he forced out this
00:46:00
colonel who had this incredible record
00:46:02
cuz just cuz he's competent. Um really
00:46:06
interesting. There was just a picture
00:46:08
from I think it was India where the
00:46:09
anthropic CEO and Sam Alman wouldn't
00:46:11
hold hands for a second together which
00:46:13
was funny. They're in a big beef but
00:46:15
that's a separate beef. Um, this is
00:46:17
really interesting. I'd love to know
00:46:19
what you think about this because
00:46:20
they're not they're standing firm. It
00:46:22
looks like anthropic is like we're not
00:46:23
going to be used, you know, to attack
00:46:25
humans without a human intervention or
00:46:28
domestic surveillance, etc.
00:46:30
>> Yeah. So, the the Pentagon, they're
00:46:32
threatening to they're threatening to
00:46:34
sever its $200 million relationship with
00:46:36
Anthropic.
00:46:37
>> Not big. Not too big
00:46:39
>> because the AI firm insists on
00:46:40
maintaining limitations on how the
00:46:42
military uses their LLM. uh anthropics
00:46:45
red lines are no mass surveillance of
00:46:48
Americans and no fully autonomous
00:46:50
weaponry. Right? So,
00:46:53
but this is yet another example
00:46:57
of
00:46:59
a a loss of capitalism. This is
00:47:02
technically a very severe form of
00:47:03
socialism and that is the state has
00:47:06
decided they control the means of
00:47:08
production. private companies are
00:47:10
allowed to have their own guidelines and
00:47:12
if those guidelines mean they can't work
00:47:14
with a military contractor they they get
00:47:16
to make that decision.
00:47:18
So this is and them trying to shame them
00:47:20
and threaten them economically
00:47:22
is the worst type of socialism. So all
00:47:26
of these quoteunquote free market people
00:47:29
claiming this is private companies
00:47:34
Vox gets to decide if it doesn't want to
00:47:36
work with the Pentagon.
00:47:39
And so
00:47:41
if they sign a contract, fine, they have
00:47:43
to live up to their contract. But the
00:47:45
fact that Anthropic has these
00:47:47
guidelines, I again think this is a bit
00:47:49
of a cold bear moment for Anthropic. And
00:47:52
that is Anthropic has starts their hat
00:47:54
white in an environment where the
00:47:56
majority of Americans feel really uneasy
00:47:59
about AI. So, Anthropic has sort of
00:48:02
positioned itself as the clean, well-lit
00:48:04
corner of the bookstore here,
00:48:06
>> like Apple and privacy or Apple and not
00:48:09
>> 100%. We're the good guys.
00:48:12
>> Mhm.
00:48:13
>> And so, I I I as we sit here today, I
00:48:16
actually think that Anthropic or in the
00:48:18
next 12 months, this one of our
00:48:20
predictions is going to be worth more
00:48:21
than open AI. But this is a win for
00:48:25
anthropic and another example of the
00:48:27
government deciding they get to dictate.
00:48:31
They're not breaking the law. The
00:48:33
government gets to dictate visav laws
00:48:34
that okay, you can't discriminate based
00:48:36
on someone's sexual orientation, race,
00:48:38
ethnicity, gender, whatever. They can
00:48:40
enforce that. There's no law saying that
00:48:43
if you're a company that doesn't want to
00:48:45
engage in mass surveillance of citizens
00:48:47
that you're you have to work with the
00:48:49
government. that there this is this is
00:48:52
socialism gone arry. This is market
00:48:55
intervention where there shouldn't be
00:48:57
any. And when it comes from on Pentagon
00:48:59
stationary, I mean they might as well
00:49:01
just have had Donald Trump sign this. I
00:49:03
think this is actually going to be
00:49:05
>> it's a text will you do what I say.
00:49:08
>> It's a col bear moment. Daario Emodi is
00:49:11
being like Colar and sticking up the
00:49:13
middle finger and a lot of enterprises
00:49:15
and a lot of consumers are going to go,
00:49:16
you know, I like a company that refuses
00:49:18
to engage in mass mass surveillance of
00:49:21
its own citizens.
00:49:22
>> Yeah, I think this is a good Anyway,
00:49:23
we'll see. Pete Hag says, you're also a
00:49:25
[ __ ] Anyway, um one more quick break.
00:49:28
We'll be back for predictions.
00:49:32
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00:51:34
>> Okay, Scott, we're going to talk about
00:51:35
predictions, but first, um, I have one
00:51:38
prediction I'm going to make, but I'm
00:51:39
going want to do this first. The US
00:51:41
military is moving into place for a
00:51:43
possible Iran strike. probably because
00:51:44
this Webpstein stuff is getting hot
00:51:46
again for Trump as early as this
00:51:48
weekend. Scott, let's hear what you said
00:51:50
in January.
00:51:51
>> Bottom line is my prediction is that I
00:51:54
think we're about to see the US conduct
00:51:56
a military strike on Iran.
00:51:59
>> Now, you thought it was pretty quickly,
00:52:00
but the state uh but but it's happening
00:52:03
possibly this weekend. There's they've
00:52:04
they've amassed an enormous amount of
00:52:07
military might in the region, probably I
00:52:10
think more than when they were doing the
00:52:11
last war, they were over there. So it's
00:52:14
that this the things are in place, the
00:52:16
battleships are in place. You do you
00:52:17
want to talk about that or do you have a
00:52:18
different prediction?
00:52:19
>> Oh, no. I I think it's on and and let me
00:52:22
be clear. I like this. I would like to
00:52:24
see I think the Islamic Republic is one
00:52:28
of the most misogynistic, brutal regimes
00:52:30
in the world right now. And I think Iran
00:52:32
has the cap the potential uh to be an
00:52:35
outstanding ally. And I think if and
00:52:38
there's a lot of unknowns here. regime
00:52:40
change, you know, brings its own risk
00:52:42
>> and why he's doing it at this moment.
00:52:44
But go ahead.
00:52:45
>> But he can be doing it for the wrong
00:52:46
reasons and can still have a good
00:52:48
outcome. I'm I'm absolutely 100% in
00:52:50
favor of this. And I think that Iran uh
00:52:52
being quote unquote
00:52:55
just less oppressive, less brutal, will
00:52:57
be really good for the region and really
00:52:59
especially good for the women of Iran
00:53:01
>> if they can complete what they need to
00:53:04
complete. If they just don't and they
00:53:06
just beat them up again and then leave,
00:53:08
it's a different issue.
00:53:10
>> I think the regime the regime is hobbled
00:53:12
and I think this could tip it over. I
00:53:14
not to get in too much in the Jesus, I
00:53:15
think they need to coordinate with the
00:53:16
MSAD and have agents on the ground and
00:53:18
do a series of of targeted executions
00:53:21
quite frankly or assassinations.
00:53:23
Execution is the wrong word.
00:53:24
Assassinations.
00:53:25
But I'm a I'm a huge I'm a huge
00:53:29
proponent of this. If you look at troop
00:53:32
movements, whether it's refueling
00:53:33
planes, supply chain cargo, aircraft
00:53:35
carriers, uh, specialized operations
00:53:38
troops, they are either playing serious
00:53:40
poker or they are about to do this
00:53:43
imminently.
00:53:44
>> They kind of have to, right? And Trump's
00:53:46
probably in the mood. I think that I
00:53:47
think the other factor here is he has a
00:53:50
State of the Union on Tuesday. I think
00:53:52
he can't complete a state of the union.
00:53:53
I just
00:53:55
>> He also he also wanted to distract from
00:53:57
the Epstein files.
00:53:58
>> Epstein files. loves he loves the macho
00:54:00
flex of what happened in Venezuela. This
00:54:03
he thinks is going to be part two
00:54:05
>> which didn't last too long.
00:54:07
>> And also Rubio positions himself for
00:54:09
president with these types of actions.
00:54:11
And Rubio is probably whispering in his
00:54:13
ear this would be a great move for us.
00:54:15
Uh I I'll be very curious how our allies
00:54:18
in the region what they think of this.
00:54:20
But I I think it's on and I have think I
00:54:23
have thought if you just look if you
00:54:24
just track um uh troop movements, ship
00:54:28
movements, supply chain movements. I
00:54:31
mean we are moving a lot of stuff to the
00:54:34
region and we are sort of we are ready
00:54:36
to go. We are at the starting line.
00:54:38
>> Yeah, he'll cancel the state of the
00:54:39
union would be my guess. If this is
00:54:41
happening thought of that
00:54:42
>> um and I don't think he can complete
00:54:43
one. I don't I think he is quite losing
00:54:47
it as you know in some fashion. I'm not
00:54:49
so sure he's he's I think I know he
00:54:52
seems vibrant, but I I suspect that it's
00:54:54
there's problems around that. Um that's
00:54:56
just me. Uh one the only prediction I
00:54:59
would say is today uh Wired published a
00:55:02
story about uh the gay mafia in Silicon
00:55:04
Valley. They had written me about it and
00:55:05
I was like there's no such thing. There
00:55:07
just isn't. Sorry.
00:55:08
>> Gay mafia.
00:55:09
>> Yeah, I know. It's the it's a story that
00:55:11
they wanted to work on. They had
00:55:12
contacted me years ago about it and
00:55:13
they're like let's talk about you and
00:55:15
the game. I'm like there is no I don't
00:55:16
have friends with Kim Cook. There's no
00:55:18
gay mafia. There's I mean, sorry, but I
00:55:21
thought it was a silly idea and I still
00:55:22
think it is. And I have to say I think
00:55:24
they're going to get a lot of push back
00:55:25
for the illustration which shows uh two
00:55:28
hands coming out of two crotches, one
00:55:30
with a with a rainbow, you know, Apple
00:55:34
watch on uh but the penises are hands
00:55:36
and they're shaking. So, I thought that
00:55:39
was so [ __ ] insulting to gay people.
00:55:41
I'm sorry, guys. That was a terrible
00:55:44
illustration. Like I don't usually I
00:55:45
usually laugh at most like jokes about
00:55:47
gays, but oh my god, you don't have to
00:55:50
have, you know, penis.
00:55:51
>> Well, there's definitely no gay mafia,
00:55:52
but it's obvious that Jews run the
00:55:53
world. I mean,
00:55:54
>> right?
00:55:56
>> What the [ __ ] But why do you have penis
00:55:58
hands? We don't need penis hands.
00:56:00
>> Yeah. Just speaking along those lines,
00:56:01
George Han pointed out something that
00:56:02
really struck me as very insightful.
00:56:04
>> I think they're going to get in trouble
00:56:05
for it. That's my prediction because
00:56:06
it's stupid and it's really offensive
00:56:08
and I don't usually get offended. So
00:56:09
that's my meter. But go ahead. We
00:56:10
referenced Heated Rivalry before and he
00:56:12
said the thing he loved about Heated
00:56:13
Rivalry and it just struck me as so true
00:56:15
is that he felt it was the first time
00:56:18
>> that not one but both gay men were
00:56:20
depicted as just incredibly high
00:56:22
performance good-looking functional
00:56:26
>> like impressive men. One wasn't one
00:56:28
wasn't neurotic or quote unquote very
00:56:30
flamboyant or one wasn't struggling with
00:56:32
some they're just both really impressive
00:56:35
men and I I literally tick through every
00:56:38
depiction of gay romance and he's right
00:56:42
there's usually one person that feels
00:56:43
>> lesbians have gotten a better shake
00:56:45
recently
00:56:45
>> kagy and lacy
00:56:47
>> no lord and things like that um but yes
00:56:50
I agree with you I agree there's a great
00:56:51
book that I recommended vto Russo the
00:56:53
celluloid closet is a history of how
00:56:56
gays were depicted it uh and it it it
00:56:58
continues to this day and for gay men
00:57:00
they do not get as much complexity as
00:57:02
these two. I'd agree with you. Yep.
00:57:04
Absolutely.
00:57:05
>> Well, a certain extent the Epstein the
00:57:07
Epstein class has sort of diminished the
00:57:09
comfortable notion that gay people are
00:57:11
more inclined to be pedophiles. No, it's
00:57:13
it's rich white dudes that seem to be
00:57:14
more inclined.
00:57:16
>> Rich straight white dudes.
00:57:18
>> Yeah. And let me tell you, go straight
00:57:20
to hell for doing anyone who did that
00:57:21
should go straight to hell. Anyway, on
00:57:23
that note, um, uh, and no more penis
00:57:26
penis handshakes. Anyway, uh, we want
00:57:29
wired. I love you, Katie, but
00:57:31
>> I don't get a prediction. You're just
00:57:32
rolling right.
00:57:33
>> You just did that. No, no, go ahead. No,
00:57:35
now you have another one. Go ahead.
00:57:35
>> What was my prediction? I
00:57:37
>> military Iran.
00:57:39
>> Well, I made that one a month ago.
00:57:40
>> All right. Okay. What's your new I want
00:57:42
to say? You just I feel hurt. I feel
00:57:43
shamed. Okay, go ahead.
00:57:44
>> Okay, fine. We're bombing Iran. Never
00:57:46
mind.
00:57:46
>> No, go ahead. No. What's your
00:57:48
prediction? Well, I don't know if you've
00:57:50
noticed, but about $1 trillion
00:57:53
in value has been destroyed amongst the
00:57:55
biggest AI players since the beginning
00:57:57
of the year
00:57:58
>> as you were noting they would
00:57:59
>> and what's interesting about it is I
00:58:02
mean a few things need to happen needed
00:58:03
to happen either revenues needed to like
00:58:05
even jump more to justify the the
00:58:08
massive capex and that didn't happen. So
00:58:11
their stocks have come down. What's
00:58:13
really interesting in my opinion is that
00:58:15
what also happened though is that people
00:58:17
still think these technologies
00:58:19
um I mean just an example Amazon's off
00:58:21
14%. Microsoft's off 17%. B Apple
00:58:26
>> Apple has dropped Amazon's had its worst
00:58:28
couple weeks in a in several years.
00:58:31
>> Yeah, they've lost
00:58:33
500 billion.
00:58:35
>> They've lost a lot. Um, so but what's
00:58:38
also interesting is there's been a
00:58:39
trillion dollar wipeout at SAS companies
00:58:41
and that was when Enthropic unveiled its
00:58:44
uh Claude Co-work uh legal automation
00:58:47
tool.
00:58:48
>> It triggered uh what traders at Jeffre
00:58:51
immediately christened the SAS
00:58:53
apocalypse erasing approximately 285
00:58:56
billion in market cap in a single
00:58:57
trading day.
00:58:58
>> Software companies. Yeah. The general
00:59:00
notion is that people aren't going to
00:59:02
need that basically you're going to be
00:59:04
able to write a prompt and you'll be
00:59:05
able to replace Adobe, Salesforce,
00:59:07
Service Now.
00:59:08
>> Yeah.
00:59:09
>> And that these companies have been fat
00:59:10
and happy for 30 or 40 years.
00:59:12
>> Yeah, they have.
00:59:12
>> And these companies So
00:59:14
>> this one I agree with.
00:59:16
>> Well, it's interesting because
00:59:18
Salesforce is off 25%.
00:59:21
Uh Adobe is off 25 to 30% this year.
00:59:25
Intuitit is now down 34%. It's lost a
00:59:29
third of its value year to date. Now my
00:59:31
view and this is and this is my
00:59:34
prediction is that
00:59:36
these companies are much more deeply
00:59:40
integrated into their corporate
00:59:42
customers than people believe. And even
00:59:43
if you can write the code really
00:59:46
efficiently and quickly without their
00:59:48
technical staff at these companies,
00:59:50
their technical staff is only 10 to 20%
00:59:52
of their employees.
00:59:54
So they have they have really powerful
00:59:56
UI, they have client service, they have
00:59:58
client management, they have integrated
01:00:00
billing, they they are so deep into
01:00:03
these companies that I think rumors of
01:00:05
the death of these companies has been
01:00:06
vastly exaggerated. And as a multiple of
01:00:08
free cash flow, these companies have
01:00:11
never traded at a lower multiple. In
01:00:13
addition, if you actually look at the
01:00:16
>> opportunity is what you're saying
01:00:17
>> 100%. If you actually look at their
01:00:19
revenues and their margins, there is
01:00:22
absolutely no evidence whatsoever that
01:00:25
AI is hurting them. None whatsoever.
01:00:28
>> Yeah.
01:00:28
>> So my prediction is that a basket
01:00:32
>> a basket of stocks Adobe
01:00:35
>> Figma Service Now Salesforce that
01:00:39
they're going to have um great returns
01:00:41
from here on out. I think
01:00:42
>> especially if they integrate the AI
01:00:44
features in in a way that's helpful to
01:00:47
people, right? That's what it it I find
01:00:50
them like I what what's interesting is
01:00:53
and I think we should talk about this
01:00:54
Monday, this fight between open and I
01:00:56
just hired um a very significant person
01:00:58
from from Instagram, Charles Porch,
01:01:01
who's really talented talent relations.
01:01:03
Um Figma did a deal with Claude, you
01:01:06
know, uh Open AI got a hold of OpenClaw,
01:01:10
right? It's really interesting what's
01:01:12
happening. It starts to become what's
01:01:13
actually useful and who takes advantage
01:01:15
of the utility. Correct. And some of
01:01:18
Adobe could do it, right? They could
01:01:19
easily make their product 100 times
01:01:22
better.
01:01:22
>> Well, just looking at it operationally,
01:01:25
say they spend 10 or 20% on programming
01:01:29
and that's no longer a a moat because AI
01:01:33
can come in and write the code just as
01:01:35
easily. These companies themselves could
01:01:37
reduce their cost by 10 or 20%. Shed
01:01:40
that technical staff quite frankly and
01:01:43
then pass on those savings to their end
01:01:45
consumer while not giving up any ibita
01:01:48
or margin. In other words, 80 80% of
01:01:50
their capex goes into things that or or
01:01:53
their expenditures goes into things that
01:01:55
AI is not challenging. AI is challenging
01:01:58
their technical mode, but AI is not
01:02:00
challenging the fact that
01:02:03
my even my shitty small companies were
01:02:05
all on Salesforce. The idea of someone
01:02:08
coming in and saying, "We'll give you
01:02:10
50% we'll we'll charge you 50% less."
01:02:12
I'm like, "Are you kidding? I just spent
01:02:13
the last [ __ ] year training everyone
01:02:15
how to use Salesforce, right? We're all
01:02:17
on it." if they give me more for
01:02:19
>> and I get invited to cool Salesforce
01:02:21
events and they give me research and the
01:02:23
nice attractive dude who used to play
01:02:25
football at Cornell shows up and he's
01:02:27
our Salesforce representative. These
01:02:29
these companies are much more deeply
01:02:31
integrated
01:02:32
>> into their client base even if if
01:02:34
there's a widget on anthropic that helps
01:02:37
you build the code that they offer. It's
01:02:39
just not that
01:02:40
>> there has to be an alternative stack is
01:02:42
what you're talking about that match
01:02:44
>> well did that it what it'll do though
01:02:46
these companies are smart what it'll do
01:02:47
first off I think these companies are
01:02:49
really fat and happy and there's a lot
01:02:50
of expense cutting that they they could
01:02:52
all endure my prediction is the
01:02:53
following I think the sale or the
01:02:56
decline on uh these these companies
01:02:59
Adobe Salesforce Service Now I I think
01:03:02
it's been overdone and that a basket of
01:03:05
the companies that have endured this SAS
01:03:07
apocalypse are going to are going to do
01:03:09
really Well, I think it's a great
01:03:10
investment because if you look at their
01:03:11
multiple on free cash flow, they've
01:03:13
never been lower. They've never been
01:03:14
cheaper. And I see absolutely no
01:03:16
evidence whatsoever that AI is reducing
01:03:19
their top line or their bottom line.
01:03:20
>> Greatly exaggerated.
01:03:22
>> That's exactly right.
01:03:23
>> All right. So, anyway, that's a great
01:03:24
one. I love that one. Um, I think you're
01:03:26
right. I think you're 100% right. We
01:03:27
want to hear from you. Send us your
01:03:28
questions about business, tech, or
01:03:30
whatever's on your mind. That was useful
01:03:31
for our listeners, Scott. Thank you. Go
01:03:34
to nymag.com/pivot
01:03:35
to submit a question for the show or
01:03:37
call 85551 pivot. Elsewhere in the Karen
01:03:40
Scott Universe this week on Profy
01:03:41
Markets. Scott spoke with Professor
01:03:43
Aswath Deotin, professor of finance at
01:03:46
NYU's Stern School of Business to
01:03:48
discuss why he's concerned that the
01:03:50
market is ignoring catastrophic risks.
01:03:52
After the second world war, we put
01:03:54
together an economic order centered
01:03:56
around the US and the US dollar and
01:03:58
that's coming apart and the market seems
01:04:00
to essentially be blowing back saying it
01:04:03
doesn't matter. We're we're going to
01:04:04
figure out a way and just like we did on
01:04:07
co and maybe that's part of what's going
01:04:10
on here is people are saying markets are
01:04:11
resilient enough they're going to find a
01:04:13
way even through this dramatic change in
01:04:16
how the global economy is run to find
01:04:18
the other side. There seems to be too
01:04:21
much of an acceptance that we'll figure
01:04:22
a way through this without serious pain.
01:04:25
>> Well, that's what they're like whistling
01:04:26
past the grave. That's great. He's so
01:04:28
smart. Otherwise, is so smart. Um, we
01:04:30
obviously didn't talk about RFK Jr. and
01:04:32
Kid Rock's exercise video.
01:04:34
>> I don't know how to feel about that.
01:04:36
>> We don't know how to feel about that. I
01:04:38
feel like if I watch that and then watch
01:04:40
Heated Rivalry, I might just explode
01:04:42
into an orgy of like
01:04:43
>> They said the worst the worst season of
01:04:45
Heated Rivalry was those two. Oh my god.
01:04:48
God. rage against.
01:04:50
>> Every time I see Kid Rock, I immediately
01:04:51
think, "How much Sudafed can I buy at a
01:04:53
CVS?
01:04:56
>> There's so much good stuff on the
01:04:57
internet about it." But remember, it's
01:04:59
your taxpayer dollars at work. Oh my
01:05:01
god, there's
01:05:03
>> a milk in a hot tub. That's all I have.
01:05:04
>> That's the workout video for single dads
01:05:06
who fight for child custody and then
01:05:07
never see their kids.
01:05:09
>> Thank you. Let's end on that. Okay,
01:05:11
that's the show. Thanks for listening to
01:05:12
Pivot. Be sure to like and subscribe to
01:05:15
our YouTube channel. We'll be back next
01:05:17
week.
