00:00:00
This isn't military action. This is a
00:00:01
war. There's one
00:00:03
>> excursion. The word he's using now. It's
00:00:04
an excursion.
00:00:05
>> Like a field trip.
00:00:13
>> Hi everyone. This is Pivot from New York
00:00:14
Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast
00:00:16
Network. I'm Carara Swisser
00:00:18
>> and I'm Scott Galloway.
00:00:19
>> Scott, did we have a good time in
00:00:20
Minneapolis?
00:00:21
>> Oh, that was wonderful. And thank you to
00:00:23
the the wonderful people of Minneapolis.
00:00:25
I thought it was great. I I've never you
00:00:28
know what was really the the community
00:00:30
or you know maybe we got a not a
00:00:33
representative sample I'd like to think
00:00:34
we got a representative the community
00:00:36
seems very unified right now. Yeah,
00:00:38
absolutely. People drove from North
00:00:40
Dakota. There was
00:00:42
>> wherever that is or Iowa. We had a
00:00:44
lawyer from Iowa come.
00:00:46
>> Yeah. Judge,
00:00:46
>> by the way, shout out. We know who you
00:00:48
are. There's this wonderful woman who's
00:00:49
a lawyer in family court and she
00:00:51
commutes seven hours a week and she said
00:00:53
that uh excuse me. She said judge. Yeah.
00:00:56
And she said we're her we're her best
00:00:58
friends.
00:00:59
>> Yeah. Yeah. It was great. And people
00:01:00
were great. Anyway, we've got a lot to
00:01:02
get to today. I'm going to dig in.
00:01:03
First, the war in Iran is sending oil
00:01:05
prices on a wild ride this week and
00:01:07
creating what the International Energy
00:01:09
Agency says is quote the largest supply
00:01:11
disruption in the history of the global
00:01:13
oil market. Okay, that's kind of
00:01:16
something. As of this recording, oil is
00:01:18
still very high, slowly coming down from
00:01:20
over $100 a barrel after ships were
00:01:22
attacked in the Persian B Gulf. There's
00:01:24
also the tax still going on. Gulf uh gas
00:01:27
prices continue to climb as well. And
00:01:28
just remember, it's not just gas prices.
00:01:30
Every price goes up when gas goes up.
00:01:32
The IEA's 32 member countries are
00:01:35
releasing a record 400 million barrels
00:01:37
of oil from strategic reserves to
00:01:39
counter the chaos, which means we aren't
00:01:41
going to feel this yet. Uh I interviewed
00:01:44
uh Senator Warner yesterday and he was
00:01:46
noting that um Trump has tried to calm
00:01:48
markets. He keeps trying to to do this
00:01:51
to bring these oil prices down by words
00:01:53
saying the war is quote very complete
00:01:55
only to later announce we haven't won
00:01:58
enough. Oil prices also plunged after
00:02:00
energy secretary Chris Wright
00:02:01
incorrectly posted that US Navy had
00:02:03
escorted a tanker through the straight
00:02:04
of Hormuz. So that was a problem. The
00:02:07
post was deleted within minutes was
00:02:08
enough to move markets and wipe out uh
00:02:10
million billion million dollar trades.
00:02:13
Um this is such a taco. This is the
00:02:15
greatest taco of all I think. And even
00:02:17
if the war in Iran ends soon, returning
00:02:19
the straight of Hermuz to typical
00:02:20
traffic could take one to three months.
00:02:22
We're going to see reverberations of
00:02:24
this ridiculous situation. um the way
00:02:26
he's handling it and the way he's not it
00:02:29
seems all over the place. Um and also to
00:02:32
to add to the kind of mess there, the
00:02:34
initial findings of a military
00:02:36
investigation say that US was
00:02:37
responsible for that deadly tomahawk
00:02:39
missile strike on the Iranian elementary
00:02:41
school. It's actually causing a lot of
00:02:43
strife within MAGA. By the way, the
00:02:45
report notes officers like and
00:02:46
everywhere else, normal people and MAGA.
00:02:49
Um the report notes officers likely used
00:02:51
outdated information to label the school
00:02:53
as a military target. Trump has tried to
00:02:55
put the blame on Iran earlier this week,
00:02:57
claiming they also have the tomahawks,
00:02:59
which everyone thought was ridiculous.
00:03:00
And when asked about the military report
00:03:02
on Wednesday, Trump said he knew nothing
00:03:04
about it. Um, we'll get to the the
00:03:06
photography scandal at the Pentagon, but
00:03:08
talk a little bit about what's going on
00:03:10
with oil prices and this the school,
00:03:12
which is just I feel like we should take
00:03:14
responsibility when we make an error,
00:03:16
such a terrible error. But go ahead,
00:03:18
start.
00:03:19
>> I'll go I'll go in reverse order. When
00:03:21
you're handling a crisis, and this is a
00:03:23
crisis, the death of civilians,
00:03:25
especially children, is obviously pretty
00:03:27
ugly. You acknowledge the issue, you
00:03:29
take responsibility, and you try and
00:03:31
overcorrect. And they've done nothing of
00:03:33
the sort. And there's in a war, and this
00:03:36
is a war. This isn't military action.
00:03:37
This is a war. There's
00:03:39
>> an excursion, the word he's using now,
00:03:40
it's an excursion,
00:03:42
>> whatever that means. Excursion.
00:03:44
>> I went on a bike,
00:03:45
>> like a field trip, like
00:03:47
>> Exactly. My daughter went on an
00:03:48
excursion. except he didn't get
00:03:49
Congress's approval the day before that
00:03:51
he could go on the excursion. Um, you
00:03:53
know, it's a tragedy. Uh, they just made
00:03:55
a bad situation worse. First off, they
00:03:58
look incompetent by saying that it might
00:04:00
have been a tomahawk from Iran. Iran
00:04:02
doesn't have tomahawks. So, it it looks
00:04:04
like, okay, I'm not willing to own up to
00:04:06
this. I mean, there's not a good answer,
00:04:08
but there's a reasonable answer here,
00:04:10
and that is
00:04:13
>> Yeah, this we decided to go, you know,
00:04:15
with military action. This is a This is
00:04:17
a group of people who killed 30,000 of
00:04:19
its own people. War is going to have
00:04:21
collateral damage. We screwed up. We
00:04:23
take responsibility. These are the
00:04:25
following steps we're putting in place
00:04:26
to make sure it doesn't happen again.
00:04:29
And take responsibility for it and it
00:04:31
would have been not over, but it would
00:04:33
have been acceptable. Instead, it's
00:04:35
like, no, it was Iran's fault. It just
00:04:37
doesn't
00:04:38
>> or I didn't know.
00:04:40
>> Yeah. Oh,
00:04:42
>> Pegasus was the same way. It was it was
00:04:43
and was angry when people asked about
00:04:45
it, which is the everything wrong in the
00:04:47
response and everything wrong in the
00:04:50
mistake. But you're right. Absolutely.
00:04:52
>> Yeah. And the the real I mean, we're
00:04:56
just we're just starting to see.
00:04:59
So, I was speaking to a kid and um and I
00:05:02
said, "What what you know, where do you
00:05:03
want to be in 5 years?" I always ask
00:05:05
young men that. Where do you want to be
00:05:07
in 5 years? And this kid said, "Uh, I'd
00:05:09
really love to have my own auto repair
00:05:12
shop focusing on EVs."
00:05:13
>> Mhm.
00:05:13
>> I said, "Okay, well then let's reverse
00:05:15
engineer from those things." Like, what
00:05:17
kind of skills do you need to acquire?
00:05:20
What kind of job certification?
00:05:22
What kind of capital or money would you
00:05:24
need to um uh start something like this?
00:05:28
>> Uh have a business plan. Would what kind
00:05:30
of real estate would you need? What
00:05:32
would be your you know, let's reverse
00:05:34
engineer everything you need basics,
00:05:36
right? Let's reverse everything,
00:05:37
engineer everything to today around what
00:05:40
you would need to be an owner of an EV
00:05:42
repair shop in uh he lives in the
00:05:44
outskirts of Los Angeles. Just the
00:05:46
loveliest young kid. Anyways,
00:05:49
we can't even reverse engineer the
00:05:51
tactics because I don't think anyone is
00:05:53
really clear yet on what the endgame is,
00:05:55
what the end goal is.
00:05:57
>> Mhm.
00:05:57
>> And that is if they had said, "All
00:05:59
right, we're going to diminish their
00:06:00
launch capability from missiles." Makes
00:06:02
all the sense in the world. It's more
00:06:03
about the launchers and the missiles
00:06:04
because you can bury the missiles under
00:06:06
under
00:06:06
>> these are ballistic missiles for people
00:06:07
who don't know.
00:06:08
>> We can we are going to make sure that
00:06:10
the straits of Hormuz are more secure
00:06:12
than they were uh previous to this and
00:06:14
we're going to work with our Gulf allies
00:06:15
to create a series of mind sweepers and
00:06:18
and enforce the border. I mean, and
00:06:20
we're going to take out the navy and
00:06:22
we're going to take out the munitions
00:06:23
infrastructure that builds this stuff.
00:06:25
These are the three boxes we need to
00:06:27
check.
00:06:29
>> Can I interject since I just interviewed
00:06:30
Warner about this? One of the things
00:06:32
that they've talked about is going in
00:06:33
and getting the enriched uranium, but
00:06:34
that would actually be would take, as
00:06:37
they say, boots on the ground and it
00:06:38
would be
00:06:39
>> not viable. Not feasible.
00:06:41
>> Not feasible unless we want a lot of
00:06:43
Americans to die.
00:06:44
>> Yeah. As is quite frankly, as is regime
00:06:47
change. I mean,
00:06:48
>> this regime is sticking pretty strongly.
00:06:51
>> Oh, they're not collapsing.
00:06:53
>> Yeah. Yeah. No, I think Khi had the
00:06:55
likelihood of regime change at like 10%
00:06:58
by the end of March or something like
00:07:00
that right now.
00:07:01
Anyways, it's like, well, okay, in war
00:07:03
you always have to have plans A prime
00:07:06
and plan B because the enemy gets a say
00:07:08
in this. But the problem is no one can
00:07:10
identify plan A.
00:07:12
>> No, they ate it. They ate it. They the
00:07:14
the dog ate my homework. Can I ask you
00:07:15
about the oil prices because I think
00:07:17
that's something that's going to people
00:07:18
don't recognize. And um you the idea of
00:07:22
trying to calm the market by releasing
00:07:24
incorrect information, letting it go,
00:07:26
you know, whipssaw all over the place.
00:07:28
And this release of these 400 million
00:07:30
barrels is going to have repercussions
00:07:32
later because that's when the prices
00:07:34
will go up, these strategic reserves.
00:07:36
And what they're they're trying to do
00:07:38
everything possible to pretend we're not
00:07:40
going to have a real crisis between the
00:07:42
straight of Hormuz and this release. Um
00:07:44
and so it they it has second order
00:07:48
problems. Now Wall Street's sort of
00:07:49
sloughing it off a little bit. Um but
00:07:52
these are prices that are going to
00:07:53
reverberate through the system as you
00:07:55
have noted. So look, the biggest loser
00:07:56
here is obviously
00:07:59
um the people of of Iran who are in the
00:08:01
wrong place at the wrong time, right?
00:08:03
The the there is no bigger loser than
00:08:06
the families who lo lose loved ones. I
00:08:08
also think the reputation of the US and
00:08:11
what was an opportunity to create much
00:08:13
stronger alliances with moderate nations
00:08:16
in the Gulf. So big losers. What people
00:08:19
aren't talking about, the countries that
00:08:22
import more than 50% of their oil,
00:08:23
Japan, South Korea, India, and most of
00:08:26
Europe have seen their markets hammered,
00:08:29
absolutely hammered. Uh poor countries
00:08:32
with no foreign exchange reserves uh and
00:08:35
dollar denominated debt can't, you know,
00:08:37
are could be thrust into the IMF or
00:08:41
effectively what is bankruptcy. Airlines
00:08:43
and hospitality companies all over the
00:08:45
world, shipping, the bunker fuel cost
00:08:47
Warner said he's been meeting with
00:08:49
airline executives and they said they're
00:08:51
fine for now but it's going to be $25
00:08:52
million a day extra which is crazy.
00:08:56
>> I mean nations who import their oil
00:08:58
especially who get most of it through
00:09:00
the straits of Hormone their economy
00:09:01
basically their economies are like [ __ ]
00:09:03
for the year at a minimum. So there this
00:09:06
is having you know we have obviously the
00:09:10
biggest losers by body count are Iran
00:09:13
but by by economic collapse Middle
00:09:15
Eastern oil importers Jordan, Lebanon,
00:09:17
Egypt and fragile emerging markets
00:09:20
Pakistan.
00:09:21
>> Guess who's doing great? Russia.
00:09:23
>> Yeah. gives him the need he need he was
00:09:26
really on the on the ropes around the
00:09:28
million the million people who have died
00:09:30
and also the price of oil and now he has
00:09:32
more money to spend while we ignored uh
00:09:36
help from the Ukrainians on drones and
00:09:38
one of the things Warner was pointing
00:09:39
out was that fine we could take out
00:09:42
their battleships but their real problem
00:09:44
is all those small fast boats and their
00:09:46
drones they can just do all manner of
00:09:48
damage to us in that with these small
00:09:51
$50,000 drones and we use a million
00:09:53
dollar rocket to take it out. I mean,
00:09:55
this is the problem is they have an
00:09:57
ability to do this and they've been
00:09:59
they're, you know, the way Warner
00:10:01
described it, these this country is hard
00:10:03
is is hard enforced like hard like
00:10:06
hardwired. This this is not Venezuela.
00:10:09
This is Trump lives like he's in some
00:10:11
movie where you just do three bombs and
00:10:13
that's the end of it. But this is a
00:10:15
hardwired
00:10:16
150,000 people in this in this ruling uh
00:10:20
group in Iran. And they're not giving up
00:10:22
all this money and all this power for I
00:10:25
don't know. It's it's a really difficult
00:10:27
situation which they didn't.
00:10:28
>> They're just thinking about the market,
00:10:29
the winners and losers. The hardest
00:10:31
stock markets
00:10:33
>> are Middle Eastern markets. Jordan,
00:10:35
Egypt, Lebanon, their stock market's
00:10:37
greater. There's a capital flight to
00:10:39
safety. I mean, the ironic thing here is
00:10:41
that over the long term, our reputation
00:10:42
is in tatters. We're probably the least
00:10:45
damaged because we're energy
00:10:47
independent. We produce more energy than
00:10:49
we consume. We have two oceans
00:10:50
protecting us. Friendly Canada to the
00:10:53
north, harmless harmless Mexico to the
00:10:56
south. We still have capital inflows. In
00:10:58
a weird I mean, it's just terrible to
00:10:59
say, but in a weird way. Our markets are
00:11:02
probably least damaged by this. Europe
00:11:05
cost. There'll be costs for airlines.
00:11:06
There'll be costs for uh truckers.
00:11:08
There's going to be costs for home
00:11:10
heating. Thank goodness it's not winter,
00:11:12
right?
00:11:12
>> The dollar's already strengthened. I
00:11:14
mean,
00:11:15
>> it's it's ironic, but when you diminish
00:11:17
the entire world, there's a flight to
00:11:19
safety, and flights to safety usually
00:11:21
benefit the US. Emerging markets are
00:11:22
going to get the [ __ ] kicked out of
00:11:24
them. India, Brazil, South Africa,
00:11:25
Mexico, capital flowing out to the US
00:11:29
dollar for safe havens. The US will
00:11:32
likely be down 8 to 10% on a tariff
00:11:34
ruling or was down but it could be down
00:11:36
another 10 to 15% and that'll be I'll
00:11:39
talk more about that in our prediction
00:11:41
but you're going to have a pretty big
00:11:43
big peak to trough but that some of that
00:11:45
might just be the air coming out of the
00:11:47
bubble but to your point the least
00:11:49
damaged in the Middle East or Saudi
00:11:52
Arabia and the UAE but the big winner
00:11:53
here as you said is Russia oil the oil
00:11:56
price spikes the oil price spike
00:11:58
benefits them the US is distracted by
00:12:00
Iran. So more Ukraine leverage and oddly
00:12:04
the the ruble strengthens. So
00:12:07
>> yep,
00:12:07
>> this is
00:12:09
>> war is literally the agent of unintended
00:12:11
consequences.
00:12:12
>> Y
00:12:13
>> and this is so frustrating because if
00:12:14
this had been more like fore and less
00:12:17
like a rock and they'd set out a series
00:12:19
of achievable objectives
00:12:21
>> that this could have been a win. It
00:12:23
could have been the Gulf States coming
00:12:24
together
00:12:25
>> and if they had said, "Look, to a couple
00:12:27
European nations and to the Gulf States,
00:12:30
a stable Middle East benefits all of us.
00:12:33
Let's all have a series of objectives
00:12:35
and we're going to pay for and execute
00:12:37
against most of this. We could have
00:12:39
strengthened our alliances."
00:12:40
>> We've been dragged around by Israel
00:12:42
here. In a lot of ways, it looks like
00:12:43
it. Let me let me move on.
00:12:44
>> See, I disagree. I think we're very
00:12:46
tightly coordinated with Israel right
00:12:47
now.
00:12:47
>> I talked to Warner who's in the gang of
00:12:49
eight. I'm going to go with him over
00:12:50
you. I'm sorry to say that, but you
00:12:51
know, I think it was that they were
00:12:52
>> You went with the senator over Scott.
00:12:54
>> Yes. Yes, I damn. Um I think they were
00:12:56
going to attack and we decided to be the
00:12:58
senior partner like that's rather than
00:13:00
create something else because
00:13:01
>> Well, you mean Iran was going to attack
00:13:02
Israel? Israel's attack.
00:13:04
>> No, no, no. Israel was going to attack
00:13:05
Iran. That I mean that's the implication
00:13:08
he had. And
00:13:08
>> and Senator Warner feels like we did not
00:13:10
have the power to say stop.
00:13:12
>> Well, he doesn't know why we didn't.
00:13:14
That was one of his questions. He he's
00:13:16
he's surprised. He He seemed wor more
00:13:18
worried. He's usually not a worry wart,
00:13:20
but he seems worried about two things.
00:13:22
How this was conducted, obviously,
00:13:24
>> and what the real implications are,
00:13:26
especially around drones and small boats
00:13:28
that could do enormous damage to our
00:13:29
battleships and everything else, and
00:13:32
also election security. Um, but one of
00:13:34
the the weirder parts is how the the
00:13:36
administration has behaved. Um, Donald
00:13:38
Trump was dancing last night or golfing
00:13:41
and stuff like this, so the visuals
00:13:42
aren't very good. And the DoD has now
00:13:44
barred press photographers from Iran
00:13:46
briefings after publishing photos of
00:13:48
HEGs staff found unflattering according
00:13:50
to the Washington Post. Hex says vanity
00:13:52
aside, um it just they just look like
00:13:56
like he looks like a fatuous popping and
00:13:58
jay at all times. But in this case, the
00:14:01
lack of seriousness about something
00:14:03
that's very serious seems problematic.
00:14:05
And it's also causing problems within
00:14:07
their own group of mega. There's a real
00:14:09
shift. There's a real like sort of
00:14:12
Tucker Carlson and Megan Kelly u MTG on
00:14:15
one side um and then you know Mark
00:14:19
Levin, Ben Shapiro, all this there's a
00:14:20
real ugliness. I I went over I wandered
00:14:23
over to Twitter which I shouldn't have
00:14:24
done and the the nastiness between them
00:14:28
is really quite something. It's really
00:14:29
quite something to watch.
00:14:31
>> Like imagery is so incredibly powerful.
00:14:34
Basically, I think one photograph
00:14:36
brought didn't bring an end to the
00:14:38
Vietnam War, but expedited it. And it's
00:14:40
that that's it's that incredibly
00:14:42
dramatic photo of the the young girl
00:14:45
running from a napal bombing. And with
00:14:47
the Iraq war, George Bush and the
00:14:49
Pentagon, they banned photos of service
00:14:52
member coffins because he realized war
00:14:54
is so ugly that that it'll lose support.
00:14:58
And there's just and the notion that
00:15:00
these guys can't handle the images of
00:15:02
Pete Hegathth in an unflattering I mean
00:15:05
it's just uh it shows you're spending
00:15:09
you're allocating your capital in the
00:15:11
wrong places that's not that's not what
00:15:14
you should be thinking about or worried
00:15:16
about. And if you think you can control
00:15:18
the imagery of Pete Hacksath, well,
00:15:21
okay, just wait till you see the images
00:15:23
that are going to come out of Iran. And
00:15:25
you can already sell see that the IRGC
00:15:27
is quite frankly organizing again and
00:15:30
going on an information campaign.
00:15:32
>> They are and they've been very good.
00:15:34
Iran in general has been one of the
00:15:36
stronger players uh in th in those
00:15:38
spaces in terms of propaganda and
00:15:40
everything else. And so that's why
00:15:42
>> when you say good, you mean effective.
00:15:45
They they lie like there's no tomorrow,
00:15:46
>> of course. But hello, lots of people do.
00:15:49
Lots of governments do. Um,
00:15:50
>> oh, I don't know. I think I think Iran
00:15:52
takes it to a new level.
00:15:53
>> They do, but but they are, when I say
00:15:56
good is they're good at it. Um, they're
00:15:58
very um they're all throughout all the
00:16:00
various social networks. They're very um
00:16:03
they did one the other day which I was
00:16:05
sort of fascinated by where they put up
00:16:07
your president as a pedophile. Um which
00:16:09
was interesting. um they just they've
00:16:12
been at it for a long long time and they
00:16:14
have used often when there's stuff that
00:16:17
pops up online it's either Russia or
00:16:19
Iran. um China to an extent too, but
00:16:22
really Iran has used social media as one
00:16:26
of the smaller I mean it is a smaller
00:16:27
country than Russia or less powerful and
00:16:30
it has used social media to its
00:16:32
advantage in ways that are really of
00:16:35
course heinous because it's conspiracy
00:16:36
theories and you you always find them
00:16:39
somewhere in they're at the top everyone
00:16:41
I ever interview in cyber security are
00:16:43
the top in cyber security issues in uh
00:16:46
propaganda in conspiracy theories and
00:16:49
they have a very welloiled machine
00:16:51
throughout the world doing this kind of
00:16:53
stuff. So,
00:16:54
>> well, when the actual audit of social
00:16:56
media is done, I think we're going to
00:16:58
find that somewhere between 10 and 40%
00:17:01
of comments and posts
00:17:03
>> Yeah.
00:17:03
>> on geopolitical accounts or accounts of
00:17:06
influencers
00:17:07
is going to have originated from either
00:17:09
the CCP, the GRU, or the RGC.
00:17:12
>> Yep. Absolutely.
00:17:13
>> And this is what you do. You see a piece
00:17:15
of content and then you look at the
00:17:16
comments to evaluate and shape your own
00:17:19
view of that content.
00:17:21
>> Mhm.
00:17:22
>> And when
00:17:23
>> it's all gamed
00:17:25
>> Yeah. And it it has a huge impact. You
00:17:28
don't even recognize how much impact it
00:17:29
has on your views of stuff because if
00:17:31
someone says,
00:17:32
>> "Oh, the US the US will be able to
00:17:35
escort ships through the straits of
00:17:36
Hormuz." I'm just using an example.
00:17:38
>> And then there's just a ton of stuff
00:17:40
saying that'll never happen. Oil prices
00:17:42
are going to be at $200.
00:17:43
>> Mhm. All right. Where's that comment
00:17:44
coming from?
00:17:45
>> Right.
00:17:46
>> And and unfortunately, although they
00:17:49
could put in places to verify accounts
00:17:51
and get rid of fake accounts and fake
00:17:54
comments, you know, I mean, just go on
00:17:57
these really sensitive pages or
00:17:58
sensitive opinions and click on who made
00:18:01
the comment and it's someone with three
00:18:03
followers.
00:18:05
Okay, that's not a person,
00:18:07
>> right? And the question is why would
00:18:08
someone be making this comment or what
00:18:11
entity would have an interest in these
00:18:12
comments?
00:18:13
>> Yep.
00:18:14
>> Anyway, I
00:18:15
>> we're going to talk about that later
00:18:16
because there's a major report from the
00:18:18
Center for Countering Digital Hate
00:18:19
that's really interesting around chat
00:18:21
bots. Um but we're going to move on uh
00:18:23
and we have lots to talk about, but
00:18:25
there this story is going to continue in
00:18:27
our reberations obviously. Um, but when
00:18:30
uh we're going to go on a quick break
00:18:31
and when we come back, Anthropics sues
00:18:33
the Pentagon and Microsoft comes to
00:18:35
Anthropic's defense.
00:18:37
Support for this show comes from Quint.
00:18:40
If you've ever peered into your wardrobe
00:18:42
and felt paralyzed by indecision, then
00:18:44
it might be time to build a collection
00:18:45
of pieces you don't have to think too
00:18:47
hard about. Quint offers elevated
00:18:49
fabrics, thoughtful design, and pricing
00:18:51
that actually make sense. Quint makes
00:18:53
highquality wardrobe staples using
00:18:55
premium fabrics like 100% European
00:18:57
linen, 100% silk, and organic cotton
00:19:00
popppllin. Their lightweight cotton
00:19:02
kashmere sweaters are perfect for the
00:19:04
changing seasons. And they work directly
00:19:06
with top factories, cutting out the cost
00:19:08
of a middleman, so you're not paying a
00:19:10
brand markup, just quality clothing. I
00:19:12
love Quint, I have to say. I use it all
00:19:14
the time. I usually use sort of sports
00:19:16
athleisure clothes there, which I find
00:19:17
incredibly comfortable, including their
00:19:19
athletic bras and things like that. But
00:19:21
I just got a cardigan and I'm not a
00:19:23
cardigan gal, but it's really
00:19:25
comfortable. It's really attractive and
00:19:27
it's very soft and I love it. They also
00:19:29
have lots of great seasonal colors and
00:19:31
prints for spring that will make getting
00:19:33
dressed a breeze. Right now, go to
00:19:35
quint.com/pivot
00:19:36
for free shipping and 365day returns.
00:19:39
That's a full year to build your
00:19:40
wardrobe and love it. And you will. Now
00:19:42
available in Canada, too. Don't keep
00:19:44
settling for clothes that don't last. Go
00:19:46
to qinc.com/pivot
00:19:49
for free shipping and 365day returns.
00:19:52
quint.com/pivot.
00:19:57
Scott, we're back with more news. The
00:19:59
White House is reportedly preparing an
00:20:01
executive order to formally ban
00:20:02
anthropic across the federal government,
00:20:04
which is likely illegal. The Defense
00:20:06
Department CTO Emil Michael, and let me
00:20:08
just say I covered him and he's a a
00:20:10
toading bully, just said on CNBC that
00:20:13
Anthropic would quote, "pollute the AY's
00:20:15
supply chain." We've only done this for
00:20:17
foreign companies. Just so you know,
00:20:20
this kind of behavior. All this comes as
00:20:22
Anthropic is officially suing the
00:20:24
Pentagon for labeling it a supply chain
00:20:26
risk, effectively blacklisting the
00:20:28
company from federal contracts. This has
00:20:30
never been done to an American company.
00:20:31
Uh, Anthropic argues the government
00:20:33
overstepped its authority and violated
00:20:35
the company's First Amendment rights.
00:20:37
And now Microsoft is getting in the mix.
00:20:38
The company threw its support behind
00:20:40
Anthropic this week, urging the federal
00:20:42
court to temporarily block the Pentagon
00:20:44
supply risk designation in an amicus
00:20:46
brief. Uh, Microsoft warned uh that the
00:20:49
unprecedented move would have quote
00:20:51
broad negative ramifications for the US
00:20:53
tech industry. And they're damn right.
00:20:55
Scott, before we go further, I want to
00:20:56
play a prediction you made last week.
00:20:58
Let's listen. My prediction is no. And
00:21:02
that is Dario Amodi has given license
00:21:05
and permission to CEOs to say no. And in
00:21:08
the next 30 days, you are going to see a
00:21:11
raft of CEOs find their testicles and
00:21:14
start saying no to this administration.
00:21:16
>> So you were right, Scott. Uh so let's
00:21:18
talk about that them saying no. And it's
00:21:19
not just Microsoft. 37 AI researchers at
00:21:22
OpenA and Google, not the companies
00:21:23
themselves, also filed a brief
00:21:25
supporting anthropic. Um, you know, I'm
00:21:28
going to just very quickly comment that
00:21:30
the this what the government's doing
00:21:32
here is really unprecedented. It's a
00:21:34
disagreement with a company and instead
00:21:36
of just disagreeing and moving on, they
00:21:38
are attacking them in the most
00:21:39
ridiculous ways, trying to make an
00:21:41
example of anthropic and really hurt
00:21:42
their business. I need you all to
00:21:44
understand Emil Michael's role here
00:21:47
because the the these people all have
00:21:49
other interests and agendas that have to
00:21:51
do with their previous life in Silicon
00:21:54
Valley and their future life in Silicon
00:21:56
Valley. And Emil Michael's always, as I
00:21:58
said, been a toading bully to powerful
00:22:00
men. And this is what he's doing here.
00:22:02
Um, and he's not a he is not a um a
00:22:05
player that is in any way um you know,
00:22:09
sort of neutral. He's not doing things
00:22:11
for you and I in in this government.
00:22:14
He's doing things in his own
00:22:16
self-interest if would be my guess. And
00:22:18
so the the attacks on anthropic right
00:22:20
behind him is all manner of competitors
00:22:22
of Anthropic that are using the federal
00:22:24
government to uh hurt a company that
00:22:27
decided not to want to do something. And
00:22:29
I'm glad Microsoft uh stood up for them.
00:22:32
Scott,
00:22:33
>> I think this is the biggest story in
00:22:34
tech. And so just a quick a quick recap.
00:22:37
Um, Anthropic had basically two ass
00:22:41
um, and both pretty narrow. They didn't
00:22:44
want uh, Claude to be used for fully
00:22:46
autonomous weapons, meaning AI, not
00:22:48
humans making final lethal uh, targeting
00:22:52
decisions, which seems reasonable. And
00:22:54
the second one was no use of cloud for
00:22:56
mass domestic surveillance of Americans.
00:22:59
And the Pentagon responded that it does
00:23:02
not intend to use COD for those
00:23:03
purposes, but refused to contractually
00:23:05
commit to that, arguing that it it can't
00:23:08
lead tactical operations by exception
00:23:10
and that legality is the Pentagon's
00:23:12
responsibility. And then on the U about
00:23:16
2 and 1/2 weeks ago, Trump posted on
00:23:18
True Social directing every federal
00:23:20
agency directing every federal agency to
00:23:23
immediately seize all use of anthropics
00:23:26
technology.
00:23:28
And then Hexath designated anthropic as
00:23:30
a supply chain risk. Okay, that is
00:23:32
that's a label which was which has been
00:23:35
reserved for foreign adversaries.
00:23:36
>> Yeah, I just said that. Yeah.
00:23:38
>> And companies linked to the Chinese and
00:23:40
Russian government. Well, I'm saying it
00:23:41
again, Carol.
00:23:42
>> Right. Okay, fine.
00:23:43
>> The supply chain the supply chain risk
00:23:46
status.
00:23:48
First off, that's this isn't just the
00:23:50
government saying, "Okay, you don't want
00:23:52
to work with us, we don't want to work
00:23:53
with you." Mhm.
00:23:55
>> If they say if they label them as a
00:23:57
supply chain risk, then already uh a 100
00:24:01
plus enterprise companies have reached
00:24:03
out to Anthropic and said, "We may not
00:24:05
be able to use you." A financial
00:24:07
services company posits negotiations
00:24:09
regarding a $50 million contract.
00:24:12
A pharmaceutical firm, financial
00:24:14
technology company. I mean, they can't.
00:24:16
This really is an ex when you're labeled
00:24:18
sort of an enemy of state. This is
00:24:19
equivalent of like you're a corporate
00:24:21
enemy of state or threat. I say threat.
00:24:24
Anthropic has now filed a lawsuit
00:24:26
against the Pentagon saying that
00:24:28
Congress's procurement laws don't
00:24:30
authorize blacklisting a US company over
00:24:33
protected speech. That's what this is.
00:24:35
They get they get to work with or not
00:24:37
work with who they want. And the supply
00:24:39
chain designation is is just not it's
00:24:42
just not legal. And it sets a dangerous
00:24:44
precedent for any American company.
00:24:46
>> Lose most people. The government will
00:24:48
lose. But it will have an effect. Yes.
00:24:50
Yes. The government will lose, but it'll
00:24:52
still have the effect. This is a Trump
00:24:54
thing. He creates a real problem whether
00:24:56
it's anthropic
00:24:57
>> and companies won't work with them until
00:24:58
they figure it out
00:24:59
>> and then it causes damage just like they
00:25:00
done at you know when they fire all of
00:25:03
Voice of America. Now they've lost in
00:25:05
court and Carrie Lake is an idiot but
00:25:07
it's already caused damage and caused
00:25:10
damage to it and that's the goal is
00:25:12
they're going to push it illegally as
00:25:14
far as they can and then they'll be
00:25:16
stopped but by the time they're stopped
00:25:18
Anthropic is badly affected. And if you
00:25:20
all don't think this is a Silicon Valley
00:25:23
rumble happening here, it's all in the
00:25:25
self-interest of private companies who
00:25:28
have an interest in slowing anthropic
00:25:30
down. And if you look at the links
00:25:31
between Emil Michael and the rest of
00:25:33
these these these clowns,
00:25:35
>> they have financial interest and
00:25:36
competitors
00:25:37
>> just this. Yes, they do. And so this is
00:25:39
a way that Silicon Valley the penny
00:25:42
Silicon Valley used to ignore government
00:25:44
for the most part and then the penny
00:25:46
drop that they're easy to pay for and
00:25:48
that they can do their competition with
00:25:50
each other in the federal government by
00:25:52
pretending they're working for us as
00:25:54
people are getting spots putting their
00:25:56
putting their people in the various
00:25:58
spots right that will cause it. This is
00:26:00
a Silicon Valley corporate beef
00:26:02
happening. It's that is what's occurring
00:26:04
here. The one that's been most
00:26:06
outspoken, I'm trying to connect his
00:26:08
financial interest, which I'm sure is
00:26:09
driving his rhetoric, is David Sachs.
00:26:11
>> David Saxs, Mark Andre, please
00:26:14
understand there are shadow people
00:26:16
behind these actions that you need to
00:26:19
pay attention to. And Trump is, you
00:26:21
know, sort of a useful idiot. I'm I'm
00:26:23
sure they make fun of Trump behind his
00:26:25
back. Um, but, you know, it's all in
00:26:27
their economic self-interest to hurt
00:26:29
this company. And they couldn't hurt
00:26:31
them by being better. So, this is how
00:26:34
they're doing it. this is what they're
00:26:35
doing.
00:26:36
>> But it comes down this is the this is
00:26:38
the fulcrum that determines if companies
00:26:41
continue to show some backbone and by
00:26:43
the way good for Sachi Nadella um
00:26:46
showing some backbone here at again
00:26:48
risk. So
00:26:51
the
00:26:52
calcia is saying that anthropics like
00:26:55
the likelihood anthropic wins the case
00:26:56
is 72%.
00:26:58
In the meantime, companies will say,
00:27:00
"Hey, that site license we're about to
00:27:02
sign with anthropic, we're just going to
00:27:03
wait. We're apologize. This is terrible.
00:27:06
>> We love you. We think you're techn
00:27:09
>> We we we can't sign this contract right
00:27:12
now." To to your point, Microsoft and a
00:27:15
group of 22 retired senior military
00:27:17
officers have filed amicuses amicus
00:27:20
briefs in support of Anthropic and its
00:27:23
lawsuit.
00:27:24
But what's interesting is that consumers
00:27:27
are speaking. The enterprise is running,
00:27:29
but consumers are running towards
00:27:31
Anthropic. Downloads of the cloud app
00:27:33
spiked more than 75% after Trump
00:27:36
prompted federal agencies to stop using
00:27:38
Anthropic. And on the flip side,
00:27:41
uninstalls of Chat GPT
00:27:44
uh Chat GPT's mobile app spiked roughly
00:27:47
300%
00:27:49
the day after Trump's proclamation. So
00:27:52
the the the question is who wins in the
00:27:55
mind of anthropics board here the fear
00:27:58
and the stasis that has been created in
00:28:02
the enterprise market or consumers
00:28:04
running towards a company they think is
00:28:06
finally showing some
00:28:08
>> I think it's damaging I think this is
00:28:09
the this is such a Trump way to do this
00:28:12
is create
00:28:12
>> philanthropics more enterprise
00:28:14
unfortunately
00:28:14
>> I I know create chaos
00:28:17
>> and damage and it's legal but do the
00:28:20
punch Even if it's like I'm not a boxer,
00:28:22
but if you do like a kidney punch, you
00:28:24
do a you hurt the person and then you're
00:28:26
like, "Oh, did I do that? I didn't know
00:28:28
I did that." And you use your minions uh
00:28:31
and I cannot underscore again what a
00:28:33
minion Emil Michael is. Um to do your
00:28:37
dirty work and pretend you're working
00:28:39
for the government. It's the whole thing
00:28:40
is such a This is such a fixed fight. I
00:28:44
can't even you need to and I think
00:28:46
reporters should really spend a lot of
00:28:48
people don't know these characters.
00:28:50
Again, this was an ex Uber executive.
00:28:52
He's been involved in a lot of stuff in
00:28:53
Silicon Valley, but he had to leave Uber
00:28:55
under please go watch look at our
00:28:58
reporting on him many years ago. Um he
00:29:01
had to leave Uber under very difficult
00:29:03
circumstances around the rape of a woman
00:29:05
in India um in an Uber. Um, but just um
00:29:10
just go go Google them reporters who are
00:29:13
covering this and stop acting like Emil
00:29:15
Michael has is this clean character. In
00:29:17
any case, I'm sure he'll come after me,
00:29:19
but it's true. Um, so I I'll win on that
00:29:22
regard. Um, anyway, um, we're going to
00:29:25
move on. Uh, another thing that again,
00:29:27
Silicon Valley just can't stop stealing
00:29:30
essentially. Grammarly launched an
00:29:31
expert review AI feature that gives
00:29:33
editing suggestions supposedly inspired
00:29:35
by well-known writers and journalists.
00:29:37
Casey Newton discovered the tool was
00:29:40
attributing advice to him and others
00:29:42
even though they never agreed to
00:29:43
participate. The feature even generated
00:29:45
advice under the name of a certain tech
00:29:47
journalist, Cara Swisser. Um they've
00:29:51
they've stopped that now. They've gotten
00:29:53
they they pulled back on it apparently.
00:29:55
But what an incredible bunch of
00:29:57
information and identity thieves. I
00:29:59
don't know what to say. Anytime these
00:30:01
people can steal, they steal. They're
00:30:03
such shoplifterss. I don't your
00:30:04
thoughts. Well, it goes back to this
00:30:07
mindset and I thought one of the I think
00:30:10
there's looking glasses into people's
00:30:11
souls, how they treat their pets, how
00:30:14
they treat service staff is sort of a
00:30:16
you know when is their guard down when
00:30:18
there are certain tells, right?
00:30:20
>> And one of the tells that was really
00:30:22
frightening when Sam Alman was asked
00:30:25
about the energy consumption of AI. He
00:30:28
said, "What people don't take into
00:30:30
account is the amount of energy it takes
00:30:32
and the amount of investment and
00:30:33
resources it takes to get a human to a
00:30:35
point where it can make logical
00:30:37
decisions and engage in critical
00:30:39
thinking."
00:30:40
>> Mhm.
00:30:40
>> He said, "If you look at how much energy
00:30:42
and input and resources it takes to
00:30:44
raise a child such that it can get to a
00:30:45
point where it can make decisions,
00:30:48
>> AI is better." I found that so
00:30:50
nihilistic and so inhuman because what
00:30:54
Silicon Valley
00:30:55
>> or at least some of the individuals we
00:30:57
talk a lot about don't realize is that
00:31:00
>> we try and get ROI economically such
00:31:03
that we can make low ROI investments in
00:31:05
relationships and people we love. I'm
00:31:08
not getting I am not getting an ROI back
00:31:10
for my children on any sort of economic
00:31:12
level.
00:31:12
>> Well, you use a lot of energy. I'm
00:31:14
wondering if we should use as much
00:31:15
energy for you as we do. But go ahead.
00:31:17
Well, but the the whole point the whole
00:31:19
shooting match
00:31:22
>> of an economy and relationships and
00:31:24
satisfaction and purpose and some sort
00:31:25
of spiritual sense of calm and and like
00:31:28
your life mattered is that you do engage
00:31:31
in productive,
00:31:33
you know, productive economic or
00:31:34
domestic labor such that you can invest
00:31:38
that in other people
00:31:41
and you may or may not get a return. But
00:31:44
the point is the return you get is
00:31:45
you're so invested in something that you
00:31:48
you your life has meaning. The the whole
00:31:50
point is that you create value such that
00:31:53
you can you can you can invest that
00:31:56
value in relationships. And for most
00:31:58
people the most rewarding place of
00:31:59
investment where quite frankly they
00:32:01
don't get anything resembling an
00:32:02
economic ROI is in children. And to look
00:32:06
at it on that level is like, okay, you
00:32:09
don't understand
00:32:10
what it is to be a mammal or a human.
00:32:14
And and also the notion that you can
00:32:17
spend 50 years of your life
00:32:20
professionally working your ass off,
00:32:21
staying late, starting in the mail room
00:32:22
at the Washington Post as you did, such
00:32:24
that you have a voice, a reputation, a
00:32:26
twist of phrase, an ability to string
00:32:28
words together that compels people to
00:32:30
action or provides insight. And then
00:32:32
they can come in and just adopt that 50
00:32:35
years or piggyback on it.
00:32:37
>> That piggyback steal it really
00:32:39
>> is like I if I type in give me five
00:32:43
jokes on this or or give me a view on
00:32:45
the oil price and I put in my voice it
00:32:49
does a really good job because what it's
00:32:51
doing is stealing from everything I have
00:32:53
ever written, said or done.
00:32:55
>> That is correct.
00:32:56
>> And so the music industry did this
00:32:58
correctly. It said, "Okay, if we're
00:33:00
Kroq, which is awesome, the best radio
00:33:03
station
00:33:04
>> uh of the '9s in Los Angeles, and they
00:33:07
play a bunch of English Beat or Tom
00:33:09
Petty
00:33:10
>> or Lloyd Cole in the Commotions or Ramm,
00:33:13
they track how much they're playing and
00:33:14
then they send them a royalty."
00:33:16
>> Mhm. And what these guys want to do is
00:33:17
they want to leverage your years,
00:33:20
decades of of of discipline, schooling,
00:33:24
certification, risk-taking, time away
00:33:26
from your family, but they don't want to
00:33:28
pay for it. And they see everything. I
00:33:32
mean, that's I think a a a felony. But
00:33:35
what is double homicide from a mentality
00:33:38
standpoint is that these people really
00:33:40
look at relationships and humans on an
00:33:43
economic basis. I just when I saw that I
00:33:47
thought
00:33:47
>> Yeah. Yeah. He just had a kid.
00:33:48
>> This guy is not
00:33:50
>> he just had a kid.
00:33:52
>> Well, I'm I'm not going to I'm not going
00:33:54
to speak to his children, but what he's
00:33:56
going to find out and this is a what I
00:33:58
tell other dads
00:33:59
>> comment. It was a dark comment.
00:34:01
>> I'm like, don't make the mistake I made
00:34:02
and think that right away your kid's
00:34:04
going to be super into the [ __ ] you're
00:34:06
into and you're going to get all these
00:34:08
Hallmark moments despite what insurance
00:34:09
commercials would tell you. you're going
00:34:12
to have to invest more in this child in
00:34:14
every way.
00:34:15
>> And that's the point because at some
00:34:17
point what you realize is that that
00:34:18
overinvestment in other people gives you
00:34:21
purpose and value.
00:34:22
>> Well, I I I do think we're going to move
00:34:24
on from this, but let me just say they
00:34:26
think everything is for the taking and
00:34:27
for them. I just this is just another
00:34:29
example. This what was happening at the
00:34:31
defense department. Oh, we have an
00:34:32
uponthropic. Oh, anything they can take
00:34:36
they take. and they just continue to
00:34:38
prove, you know, they they keep not
00:34:40
meeting my low expectations for them
00:34:43
already. Um, and this is kind of an
00:34:45
interesting thing. Researchers from the
00:34:46
Center for Countering Digital Hate,
00:34:48
which has been attacked in all the and
00:34:50
it's its founder been attacked legally
00:34:52
by Elon Musk and the federal government
00:34:54
now in his at his behest, um, tested 10
00:34:59
major they they're keeping going though,
00:35:00
they don't care. tested 10 major AI
00:35:02
chatbots and found out eight out of 10
00:35:04
were willing to help plan a violent
00:35:06
attacks like school shootings, bombings,
00:35:08
or assassinations. Researchers posed as
00:35:10
a 13-year-old boys as 13 boys showing
00:35:13
how easily minors could get guidance on
00:35:14
weapons, locations, and strategies. Only
00:35:17
anthropics claude and Snapchat's my AI
00:35:19
consistently refused to assist in
00:35:21
planning attacks and only Claude
00:35:23
attempted to dissuade the users.
00:35:25
Deepseek wished the user happy and safe
00:35:28
shooting. And on that note, a lot of you
00:35:30
have been writing in about a story in
00:35:31
Canada earlier this year. An 18-year-old
00:35:34
gunman opened fire at a school in in
00:35:36
Tumblr Ridge, British Columbia, killing
00:35:38
eight people. Let's listen to a clip
00:35:39
from a listener. I am calling because it
00:35:42
seems to be that there is a connection
00:35:44
now between the shooter and chat GPT.
00:35:50
The shooter was flagged by Chat GBT
00:35:53
several months ago regarding some of uh
00:35:56
their behavior online. Chat GBT didn't
00:36:00
report it, which is one of the reasons
00:36:01
why I am leaving this message to see
00:36:06
what your thoughts are on that. Open A
00:36:09
is now being sued by the parent of the
00:36:11
child who was injured in the shooting.
00:36:13
I, as you know, I've been at this for
00:36:15
years, especially around kids, but it's
00:36:17
jumped into people. Um the most recent
00:36:20
uh one of the more recent shootings it
00:36:22
was was this suicide was an adult was
00:36:25
was changed by these chatbots. I cannot
00:36:28
let's stop calling them chatbots. What
00:36:29
an adorable word for synthetic beings.
00:36:32
Um which who don't who don't are not
00:36:35
bound by legal like if you're a lawyer
00:36:37
and you did this you'd go to jail. If
00:36:38
you're an anal if you're a you know a
00:36:40
psychologist and you did this you'd go
00:36:42
to jail. If you were a person and you
00:36:44
did this you would go to jail. like all
00:36:46
of the people go to jail. They're
00:36:49
willing to assist in violent attacks and
00:36:52
they're not doing anything to rein it
00:36:54
in. And it's not just kids, it's it's
00:36:56
everything. And again, the only one that
00:36:59
is doing the right thing is Claude. And
00:37:03
so, and this is anthrop. And this is the
00:37:05
company. I'm not doing an ad for Claude
00:37:07
here, but they have at least some. And I
00:37:09
think they should be regulated, too. But
00:37:11
I can't tell you how incandescent I am
00:37:14
about the way these people try to take
00:37:16
every p bit for themselves and they do
00:37:19
not care the damage they are creating.
00:37:22
And I I I am going to keep talking about
00:37:24
this until Congress steps in and does
00:37:28
something about it. You don't work for
00:37:30
those rich people. You do not work for
00:37:32
them. You and and I I'm with Dell Rico.
00:37:35
Enough with these people. So go ahead. I
00:37:37
just ranted. Well, I I think it's
00:37:39
important to draw a distinction between
00:37:42
potentially creating some sort of
00:37:43
psychosis that leads to self harm or
00:37:45
harm against others through overuse of
00:37:48
of AI or any other digital platform. I
00:37:51
think that's a separate study that needs
00:37:53
to be done
00:37:54
and without the interference of the
00:37:58
massive money and lies and and owned
00:38:02
bought research that these these firms
00:38:03
will do. I think this is different. I
00:38:06
think this is whether the federal
00:38:08
government needs to put in place laws
00:38:10
and incentives such that if a private
00:38:12
organization or corporation
00:38:15
receives information that this person
00:38:17
might be on the verge of committing an
00:38:19
act of violence, if they have a
00:38:21
responsibility to report it to the
00:38:23
authorities immediately,
00:38:25
and I think they do. I'm not a privacy
00:38:28
person. I'm not suggesting we go to
00:38:30
Minority Report where we arrest them
00:38:32
before they've committed the crime. But
00:38:34
at at my school or or
00:38:39
so uh my school in Florida where my kids
00:38:42
went at another school uh and we we all
00:38:46
shared information when I was involved
00:38:48
with the school about these very
00:38:49
difficult situations. A kid was drawing
00:38:51
very um disturbing images of gun
00:38:54
violence. And so the school felt like it
00:38:58
had an obligation to report it. And then
00:38:59
the FBI went to the house and the FBI
00:39:01
said, "Are there any guns in the house?"
00:39:03
Mhm.
00:39:04
>> And I think that was the right thing to
00:39:05
do.
00:39:06
>> You're right. That seems
00:39:07
>> If you notice, there was a video that
00:39:09
went viral on Snap. A teacher put out a
00:39:12
snap saying that she wanted to kill
00:39:14
these kids. And it immediately the cops
00:39:18
showed up and said, "Did you put did you
00:39:21
say this? Are you having any sort of
00:39:23
mental issue right now? You need to go
00:39:25
home and we need to understand what is
00:39:28
going on with you and if you have access
00:39:30
to guns before we let you back into a
00:39:31
school." Mhm.
00:39:33
>> And the same is true here that if you
00:39:36
are going to monetize this type of
00:39:38
information and you understand it so you
00:39:41
can interpret it so well
00:39:43
>> that you can create a prompt that keeps
00:39:45
them on another second, another minute
00:39:47
or serves them the exactly right auto
00:39:50
insurance ad. Then in exchange for that
00:39:53
economic benefit and what is clearly
00:39:55
demonstrated ability to know what's
00:39:57
going on with that person, if you see
00:40:00
any evidence that that person might be
00:40:02
capable of creating this type of crime,
00:40:05
you have an obligation,
00:40:07
you bartenders, the bar, if a bartender
00:40:12
continues to serve people alcohol,
00:40:15
observing that that person is really
00:40:17
drunk
00:40:18
>> and then that person gets in a bar and
00:40:20
kills someone. Mhm.
00:40:21
>> The bar is liable,
00:40:23
>> right?
00:40:24
>> So if they have such incredible
00:40:25
targeting, such unbelievable
00:40:27
information, they can clearly tell that
00:40:29
okay, this individual is getting maps
00:40:34
>> and and identification and information
00:40:36
is basically digital.
00:40:38
>> We should investigate is what you're
00:40:39
saying. This is
00:40:40
>> a school then immediately a message goes
00:40:43
out to the local authorities saying here
00:40:45
is exactly what this person said. We
00:40:47
have a judge involved. You get the order
00:40:50
and boom, they're in the house
00:40:54
asking this person questions. I'm not
00:40:56
saying they arrest them. They haven't
00:40:57
done anything yet.
00:40:58
>> Right. Right.
00:40:58
>> But
00:41:00
>> they would argue this is surveillance.
00:41:02
But of course, they don't mind selling
00:41:03
surveillance.
00:41:03
>> They're surveilling. They're surveilling
00:41:05
us to serve as the thing is, you know,
00:41:07
I'm just saying a human being in this
00:41:09
situation would be arrested or liable,
00:41:11
right?
00:41:13
>> These people are giving I agree you
00:41:15
should separate the two, but they're
00:41:16
related, Scott. It's the same mentality
00:41:19
of let us extract all the good stuff.
00:41:22
Let us not protect anybody and we are
00:41:25
not liable for what we're doing there.
00:41:27
You know, Mark Benoff once called them
00:41:30
cigarette companies. It's worse. It's
00:41:32
worse than a cigarette company. They
00:41:34
were just selling cigarettes and using
00:41:36
Joe Camel. That sucks. But this is
00:41:38
something demented. Like I think they
00:41:42
they they're demented. I I don't that
00:41:44
they think this is okay and that they
00:41:46
don't say to themselves, should we
00:41:48
really is this the way we want to make
00:41:50
our money? We want to make our money by
00:41:52
poisoning children's minds. We want to
00:41:54
make our money by letting people who are
00:41:57
mentally disabled become more so and
00:42:00
then giving that's a different issue.
00:42:02
>> I agree. But they're giving people plans
00:42:04
and if you're going to give people plans
00:42:06
on how to shoot a school, you have a
00:42:08
responsibility to say you might want to
00:42:10
check this out. I I get, but for the
00:42:12
purposes of of remedies,
00:42:15
>> I think you need to separate the two.
00:42:17
Character AI may in fact be leading
00:42:19
people into a state of psychosis where
00:42:21
they believe the right thing to do is to
00:42:23
find their stepfather's gun and kill
00:42:25
themselves cuz they're going to get to
00:42:26
hang out with Daenerys and the
00:42:28
afterlife. That is shifting their
00:42:31
psychological state.
00:42:33
My understanding of this the the shooter
00:42:35
here was that she was already in an
00:42:38
awful psychological state and was using
00:42:40
chat GPT as a tool to execute
00:42:44
>> violence.
00:42:45
>> Both require some sort of regulation,
00:42:48
responsibility, and action.
00:42:49
>> Different. You're right.
00:42:50
>> Yeah. You've done a lot of good work
00:42:52
interviewing parents around the rabbit
00:42:54
hole and psychosis that the character
00:42:56
AIs can lead people to, which by the way
00:42:58
has an average usage time of 75 minutes
00:43:01
versus AI at like 13 or 15. At the same
00:43:05
time, if these organizations
00:43:08
can very easily use the same technology
00:43:10
to not only alert them at the right
00:43:12
moment to serve them an ad for a dating
00:43:14
app or for a cryptocurrency trading
00:43:16
platform
00:43:17
>> to say, "This person is clearly going
00:43:20
through something and potentially a
00:43:21
threat to the community and others. They
00:43:24
have a responsibility to immediately
00:43:26
notify the authorities."
00:43:27
>> All right, we're going to finish up with
00:43:28
they don't have a community
00:43:29
responsibility. One of the things that
00:43:30
always struck me
00:43:31
>> when you say they don't have a
00:43:32
community.
00:43:32
>> They don't feel like they like
00:43:34
>> No, I'm saying they should. I think
00:43:35
we're in agreement here.
00:43:36
>> I think they never did is the point I
00:43:38
was going to make when I when they were
00:43:40
building their their headquarters. I
00:43:42
remember Twitter building its
00:43:43
headquarter and they had the most
00:43:44
beautiful cafeteria. I don't know if
00:43:46
you've ever been there, but it was
00:43:47
gorgeous.
00:43:47
>> I've never been invited to Twitter's
00:43:48
cafeteria.
00:43:49
>> This was pre Elon and I was thinking
00:43:52
>> pre-lon.
00:43:52
>> Pre-lon. Um I was thinking they don't
00:43:55
care about all the businesses around
00:43:57
like you know what I mean? like they
00:43:58
kept the people captive in this
00:44:00
beautiful everything is here, don't go
00:44:03
anywhere. And that they don't give a
00:44:04
[ __ ] about San Francisco. It's just like
00:44:07
they just want to be here. But they
00:44:09
didn't care about the surrounding
00:44:11
delies. They didn't care about people
00:44:12
going out in the street and creating a
00:44:14
street life. They didn't back the the
00:44:17
you know, they don't have to back the
00:44:18
opera, but they didn't back any civic
00:44:20
organizations ever. And I was always
00:44:22
like, "Huh, what a group of people. They
00:44:24
don't really care about anything but
00:44:26
themselves." Like I remember being
00:44:28
struck by that cafeteria and thinking
00:44:29
they really could give a [ __ ] And it
00:44:32
was the same it's the same idea. They
00:44:34
could give a [ __ ] about our government.
00:44:35
They could give a [ __ ] about all these
00:44:37
things except for what's in their
00:44:39
interests. And so I I could go I'm going
00:44:41
to I'm moving into I'm speaking of
00:44:42
psychosis. I'm moving
00:44:43
>> it comes down to one sort of basic
00:44:45
algorithm and that is all corporate. You
00:44:49
could argue the big tech is worse than
00:44:50
most. But generally speaking, it's safe
00:44:52
to assume that all corporations care
00:44:54
about is shareholder value and earnings
00:44:57
and getting to those earnings within the
00:44:59
confines of the law. What unfortunately
00:45:02
is different nowadays, I don't think
00:45:04
that's changed. I think General Motors
00:45:05
would still be pouring mercury into the
00:45:06
river if there wasn't
00:45:08
>> I would agree
00:45:09
>> wasn't an EPA. The the failure of the
00:45:12
glitch in the matrix is that we used to
00:45:14
have checks and balance in the form of
00:45:15
leadership.
00:45:16
>> Mhm. that prevented a tragedy of the
00:45:18
commons. But because of Citizens United
00:45:20
now,
00:45:21
>> the only thing that elected officials
00:45:23
care about is getting reelected. And the
00:45:25
only thing you need to get reelected is
00:45:27
more money than the next person.
00:45:29
>> And Silicon Valley has connected the
00:45:31
dots here.
00:45:31
>> Yeah.
00:45:32
>> And it said we can compromise inch by
00:45:34
inch their ability to regulate us and
00:45:36
prevent a tragedy of the commons by
00:45:39
throwing money at them.
00:45:40
>> Yep. And now billionaires, the 900
00:45:43
billionaires in the United States are
00:45:44
responsible for 19% of the pack giving.
00:45:47
>> Was that number? So I think you should
00:45:48
ask Taler Rico about this. I'm sorry.
00:45:50
You should let him talk about this
00:45:52
issue. I mean ultimately it's this is
00:45:55
not a good situation for all of us. And
00:45:57
they someone came up to me the other day
00:45:59
and who had been critical of my book
00:46:00
being too hard on Silicon Valley
00:46:02
burnbook and they said, "I have to
00:46:05
apologize. You weren't hard enough." And
00:46:07
I was like, "You're absolutely [ __ ]
00:46:09
right." All right, Scott. Let's go on a
00:46:11
quick break. When we come back, what
00:46:12
Barry Diller is saying about CNN.
00:46:15
>> Support for the show comes from
00:46:16
Netswuite. Every business is asking the
00:46:18
same question. How do we make AI work
00:46:19
for us? The possibilities are endless
00:46:22
and guessing is too risky. But sitting
00:46:24
on the sidelines is not an option
00:46:26
because one thing is almost certain.
00:46:28
Your competitors are already making
00:46:29
their move. No more waiting. With
00:46:31
Netswuite by Oracle, you can put AI to
00:46:33
work today. Netswuite is a toprated AI
00:46:36
cloud ERP trusted by over 43,000
00:46:38
businesses. It's a unified suite that
00:46:40
brings your financials, inventory,
00:46:42
commerce, HR, and CRM into a single
00:46:44
source of truth. Now, with Netswuite AI
00:46:46
connector, you can use the AI of your
00:46:48
choice to connect to your actual
00:46:49
business data and ask every question you
00:46:51
ever had from key customers to cash on
00:46:54
hand to inventory trends. Plus, you can
00:46:56
automate those tiresome manual
00:46:57
processes. Let's see your competitor do
00:47:00
that. This isn't another boltedon tool.
00:47:03
It's AI built into the system that runs
00:47:04
your business. Whether your company
00:47:06
earns millions or even hundreds of
00:47:07
millions, Netswuite helps you stay ahead
00:47:09
of the pack. If your revenues are at
00:47:11
least in the seven figures, get the free
00:47:13
business guide, Demystifying AI, at
00:47:16
netsweet.com/pivot.
00:47:18
The guide is free to you at
00:47:19
netsweet.com/pivot.
00:47:21
netsweet.com/pivot.
00:47:28
Scott, we're back with more news. Barry
00:47:29
Diller is speaking out about wanting to
00:47:31
buy CNN and what he would do with it. In
00:47:33
a new interview, Diller says it uh CNN
00:47:35
hasn't been managed optimally and had
00:47:37
enormous in and it's has enormous
00:47:39
potential to influence. He says he told
00:47:41
Warner Brothers CEO David Zazoff all
00:47:43
this. Let's listen.
00:47:44
>> I said to him, I don't think your
00:47:46
programming I I don't think it's being
00:47:47
optimally programmed. I don't think it's
00:47:49
competitive. Now, by the way, the facts
00:47:52
uh support that. Uh meaning that its
00:47:56
ratings have declined, its revenue has
00:47:58
declined.
00:48:00
Still is quite profitable. But how would
00:48:02
you alter it?
00:48:04
>> Oh, in every way.
00:48:07
Look, feel, and see. Every way.
00:48:12
And I mean, I hope I get the chance. I
00:48:13
don't think I will, but I hope I do.
00:48:16
>> Um, I'm not sure when this was, but I I
00:48:17
I texted him. Um, he said this not
00:48:20
happening. He said, "Not that now that
00:48:22
the Ellison's have it." Um, and they and
00:48:24
he quite correctly, and I happen to know
00:48:26
this, they're going to combine CNN and
00:48:28
CBS. Um, he doesn't think he has a
00:48:31
chance. I would love to work for Barry
00:48:33
D. He's much more conservative than I
00:48:35
am, but um I would certainly love he's
00:48:38
such a good programmer. He's such an
00:48:40
interest
00:48:42
journalism even if he gets mad at it
00:48:43
sometimes. He's someone I I appreciate
00:48:46
in that regard. Um and it would I wrote
00:48:49
him. I said, "Can you please?" And he's
00:48:51
there's no way. So I can I can knock
00:48:53
this one out of the water. He can't do
00:48:54
it unless Please, Ellison, sell it to
00:48:57
Barry Diller. Please, that would be
00:48:59
great. So, any thoughts?
00:49:02
>> I would love to see Barry Dillard
00:49:03
partnered with Jeff Zucker and a private
00:49:05
equity firm. And I think there's more a
00:49:08
greater likelihood than people believe
00:49:10
that the Ellison's might say this is too
00:49:12
big a headache.
00:49:14
>> We might just sell a combined CBS and
00:49:16
CNN to someone else because I think that
00:49:19
I'm not sure and maybe I'm being naive
00:49:21
here. I'm not sure they're as Mavian as
00:49:23
people think about trying to control the
00:49:25
world. Um, I don't know, but maybe they
00:49:28
have some grand vision for how they
00:49:29
integrated into Tik Tok, but I I can't
00:49:31
imagine Larry Ellison is as smart as he
00:49:33
is. Isn't going to say this is going to
00:49:36
be more a headache than it's worth.
00:49:38
>> No, they wanted the studios. I I I
00:49:39
agree. They're not quite as madilian.
00:49:41
They they they're just opportunistic, I
00:49:44
would say. I I you know, Ellison was was
00:49:47
democratic.
00:49:48
>> You're the third richest man in the
00:49:49
world by focusing on on economics. And I
00:49:52
think that
00:49:53
>> anyways, I think he makes a lot of
00:49:55
money. Diller is correct. It makes
00:49:56
>> the time margins. But I did some
00:49:58
analysis here because I just wanted to
00:49:59
show you like one talk about some
00:50:03
numbers of cable news. I spent a decent
00:50:04
amount of time last night uh on AI
00:50:08
looking at ratings and viewership and
00:50:10
essentially what I did was just to give
00:50:12
you a sense for the ecosystem and also I
00:50:15
never miss a chance to make pivot look
00:50:17
good.
00:50:18
>> It is good.
00:50:19
>> I looked at gross viewership. That is
00:50:21
the number or listenership. That's the
00:50:23
number of people who watch a program and
00:50:25
then see it on YouTube or on social or
00:50:28
download the audio and listen to it. And
00:50:30
actually listens are more valuable than
00:50:32
views because it's a more intimate
00:50:33
experience. And that's why
00:50:35
>> that's why you get higher CPMs on
00:50:37
podcast right now than you get on cable
00:50:39
TV. CPM is the cost per thousand viewers
00:50:42
an advertiser is willing to pay. So
00:50:44
let's look at gross viewership. the
00:50:46
number of times someone or the number of
00:50:48
people that watch the program, see it on
00:50:50
YouTube or somewhere else or listen to
00:50:52
the podcast version of it.
00:50:54
>> Fox News averages during prime time.
00:50:57
>> Fox
00:50:58
>> Fox Okay.
00:50:58
>> Fox News during prime time averages 2.1
00:51:02
million in gross viewership.
00:51:03
>> Mhm.
00:51:04
>> This is staggering. CNN 660,000.
00:51:08
>> Mhm.
00:51:09
>> Fox is kicking the [ __ ] out of CNN.
00:51:13
>> Yes. Pivot's gross viewership is
00:51:15
375,000.
00:51:17
>> CNBC is 252,000.
00:51:21
Now,
00:51:22
that's a bit of a a misnomer. It's
00:51:24
important, but what advertisers care
00:51:27
about, they don't care about kids. They
00:51:29
don't care about seniors. They care
00:51:31
about people aged 25 to 54 who are
00:51:33
buying kids, houses, and cars and in
00:51:35
their mating years.
00:51:36
>> This is a single pivot, not two together
00:51:38
of the week, right?
00:51:39
>> This is one show.
00:51:40
>> One show. single show.
00:51:42
>> We do two a week, but go ahead.
00:51:43
>> This is one show.
00:51:44
>> Mhm.
00:51:44
>> So, in the core demo, that's adults 25
00:51:47
to 54.
00:51:48
>> Mhm.
00:51:49
>> Okay. Well, let me let me let me let me
00:51:52
start here, which will explain that
00:51:53
number. Let's look at the median viewer
00:51:55
age.
00:51:56
>> Fox News, the median is 69,
00:52:00
>> CNN at 67, CNBC at 63.
00:52:03
>> Pivot, the median age is 42.
00:52:07
>> 42. So which leads you to believe as you
00:52:10
should that the number the percentage of
00:52:13
viewers in the core demographic for
00:52:16
these institutions or for the cable guys
00:52:18
and CNBC is somewhere between 20 and
00:52:19
30%. For pivot it's 70%. Meaning the
00:52:24
number of people listening or watching
00:52:27
these program listening to or watching
00:52:29
these programs in the core demo that
00:52:31
advertisers care about CNBC gets 63,000
00:52:35
people on average watching programming
00:52:37
who are in the core demo.
00:52:39
>> CNN gets 135,000.
00:52:42
Fox gets 197,000
00:52:45
and Pivot gets 233,000.
00:52:48
>> We beat them in the demo.
00:52:49
>> So we're getting more people in the core
00:52:51
demo. And then which leads to the
00:52:53
following. Our average CPM
00:52:56
>> Mhm.
00:52:56
>> according to Ray Chow, Ultimate Nice Guy
00:52:58
and New Father.
00:52:59
>> Mhm.
00:52:59
>> From Vox, we get a CPM of $45.
00:53:05
The word I've heard from CNN is they get
00:53:08
between$ 13 and $17. I don't know what
00:53:10
Fox gets.
00:53:11
>> Mhm.
00:53:12
>> So, just to give you a sense, Oh, and
00:53:15
let's talk about median household income
00:53:17
>> and cost of doing business, but go
00:53:19
ahead. Yeah. You want to reach wealthy
00:53:21
people. Wealthy people are now
00:53:23
responsible for 50% of consumer
00:53:24
spending. They have more discretionary
00:53:25
income, right?
00:53:27
>> Fox News, the average household, the
00:53:29
median household income is $60,000.
00:53:32
CNN 65, CNBC 85.
00:53:37
>> That's not
00:53:38
>> Pivot
00:53:39
150 because we get a very techheavy high
00:53:41
paid audience. So, it's pretty obvious
00:53:46
why cable news, Fox is actually doing
00:53:49
pretty well,
00:53:50
>> but cable news as a whole
00:53:52
>> is dying.
00:53:54
>> Yeah,
00:53:54
>> it's literally dying. So, Barry Diller
00:53:57
saying he wants a new look and a new
00:53:59
feel, what I would suggest is unless you
00:54:01
can pick it up at distressed pricing and
00:54:04
consolidate it with a bunch of other
00:54:06
stuff, I think Barry's falling into the
00:54:08
same trap that a lot of people fall
00:54:09
into, and that is nostalgia is not a
00:54:11
strategy. I don't think there's any I
00:54:14
don't think there's any coming back.
00:54:15
That's not to say
00:54:18
>> the these come
00:54:19
>> they're too expensive. I mean, you
00:54:21
didn't even figure in costs. Our costs
00:54:23
are basement compared to all their cost.
00:54:25
>> Oh, the gross margins.
00:54:26
>> Yeah.
00:54:27
>> I mean, then then it gets it goes from
00:54:29
ugly to worse.
00:54:30
>> Yeah. What's interesting is there there
00:54:33
there's it's a it's still a great brand
00:54:35
and I agree with you about the
00:54:37
romanticism and he happens to be even
00:54:40
today at his he's much older is still
00:54:43
the best programmer around. He's been
00:54:45
>> No, he's he's a legend in the world of
00:54:47
media.
00:54:47
>> But not just that. I don't I've never
00:54:49
seen him think like oh I
00:54:51
>> Yeah, but so is John Malone and he
00:54:52
hasn't been able to figure it out.
00:54:54
>> I agree. I agree. But I'm just saying I
00:54:56
I I wouldn't like just say oh he's just
00:54:58
being romantic. I I've had discussions
00:54:59
with him. He's got some great ideas and
00:55:01
I agree it's a real problem. It's a I
00:55:03
would spin it off and see what Zucker
00:55:05
and Diller could do cuz I both of them
00:55:07
very good. They have a lot of ideas and
00:55:09
bring in people who have great ideas and
00:55:12
what would you do with it if if they
00:55:14
said here is this. This is what you have
00:55:16
Scott. What would you do with it? I know
00:55:18
you have just an anathema to television.
00:55:20
I know that. But um I it's an
00:55:23
interesting I think it's what he knows
00:55:25
best and it would be interesting. I
00:55:27
think he would be an interesting owner.
00:55:29
It's he says it's not happening. Um but
00:55:32
uh but it's nice that he's bringing it
00:55:34
up. I think Well, sorry. And by the way,
00:55:35
speaking of our demo, of our young demo,
00:55:38
42 means there's a lot of people on the
00:55:40
very young side. A lovely young man
00:55:42
named Evan, last night I was going into
00:55:44
this party for Hank Pollson was like, "I
00:55:46
love Pivot. Say hi to Scott." And I was
00:55:48
like, and and was like,
00:55:50
>> "That is a very young person. I get
00:55:51
stopped by very young people, very old
00:55:54
people. um middle most much in the
00:55:57
middle and very different people and I
00:55:58
really Evan I really appreciate all the
00:56:00
nice things you said about the show uh
00:56:03
because we we like all our different
00:56:04
fans but you're right the age thing is
00:56:06
important all kinds of stuff anyway
00:56:09
we'll see anyway Barry good luck um all
00:56:12
right we're not going to be buying it
00:56:13
and I won't go off on my craziness like
00:56:15
I did with the post um all right Scott
00:56:17
one more quick break we'll be back for
00:56:19
predictions
00:56:21
support for this show comes from Indeed
00:56:23
when you're looking for talent. Indeed
00:56:25
sponsored jobs can be just the boost you
00:56:27
need. It matches you with quality
00:56:29
candidates fast, so you don't need to
00:56:30
spend months searching for that new
00:56:32
hire. According to their data, sponsored
00:56:34
jobs posted directly on Indeed are 95%
00:56:37
more likely to report a hire than
00:56:38
non-sponsored jobs. Join the 3.3 million
00:56:41
employers worldwide that use Indeed to
00:56:43
connect with quality talent that fits
00:56:45
their needs. Spend less time searching
00:56:47
and more time actually interviewing
00:56:49
candidates who check all your boxes.
00:56:51
Less stress, less time, more results.
00:56:53
When you need the right person to cut
00:56:55
through the chaos, this is a job for
00:56:57
Indeed sponsored jobs. And listeners to
00:56:59
this show will get a $75 sponsored job
00:57:02
credit to help get your job the premium
00:57:04
status it deserves at
00:57:06
indeed.com/mpodcast.
00:57:08
Just go to indeed.com/mpodcast
00:57:12
right now and support our show by saying
00:57:14
you heard about Indeed on this podcast.
00:57:16
That's indeed.com/mpodcast.
00:57:19
Terms and conditions apply. hiring. Do
00:57:22
it the right way with Indeed.
00:57:26
>> Okay, Scott, let's hear a prediction.
00:57:28
You you sort of mentioned it. What is
00:57:30
it? What is it? Oh, one thing. I predict
00:57:32
we're going to have a great time at
00:57:33
South by Southwest. All right. That's my
00:57:34
prediction.
00:57:35
>> That's what you're predicting always.
00:57:36
All right. So, my prediction is
00:57:40
essentially um I think the markets this
00:57:43
year are going to go down. Uh dangerous.
00:57:48
I think I think we're
00:57:49
>> I think we're on the precipice of like
00:57:51
a10 trillion dollar wipeout.
00:57:54
>> Whoa.
00:57:54
>> Um
00:57:55
>> really.
00:57:56
>> Oh yeah.
00:57:57
>> Tell all.
00:57:58
>> Well, not and by the way, I get this
00:58:00
wrong all the time. This is not
00:58:01
financial advice, but I don't think it's
00:58:03
from Iran. It's from what comes after
00:58:05
Iran.
00:58:07
Um and this is this is the chain
00:58:10
reaction here. Uh, I don't think oil is
00:58:14
going to I think oil is not going to be
00:58:16
at 150 bucks, but it's going to be it's
00:58:19
it's going to be
00:58:21
sustainably higher. It's going to be
00:58:23
elevated through the rest of the year.
00:58:25
And inflation in some markets reignites.
00:58:28
The Fed can't cut rates. They're trapped
00:58:31
um to inspire the economy because
00:58:33
they're worried about inflation. I think
00:58:35
corporate earnings are really impaired
00:58:37
as consumers stop spending
00:58:40
because some of them will be paying five
00:58:41
bucks a gallon for gas and their 401k
00:58:44
will start to decline and Q2 earning
00:58:47
season becomes bad and then what CEOs do
00:58:50
when things are sort of bad is they
00:58:51
throw in the kitchen sink and they'll
00:58:53
make it look like a blood bath just to
00:58:54
get all the bad [ __ ] out.
00:58:56
>> That's a good idea actually.
00:58:57
>> But the real contagion
00:58:59
>> uh here is going to be from emerging
00:59:01
markets. I think there's a decent chance
00:59:03
that Pakistan and Egypt default as well
00:59:07
as Sri Lanka and Bangladesh
00:59:09
>> dollar denominated debt very energy
00:59:11
dependent very fragile economies
00:59:14
>> because they all they all there's this
00:59:16
domino effect in those markets because
00:59:17
they can't afford oil imports and their
00:59:19
dollar denominated debt just becomes
00:59:21
unpayable
00:59:23
and then the real downward spiral starts
00:59:26
European banks holding that emerging
00:59:28
market debt start announcing write downs
00:59:32
um foreign banks, Deutsche Bank, BMP,
00:59:35
Pariba, all hugely exposed. Credit
00:59:37
spreads blow out and we get sort of a
00:59:41
not this to the same extent, but we get
00:59:42
an '08 style which bank is next moment
00:59:47
except this time it's happening while
00:59:50
the US is fighting a war we started for
00:59:52
no reason,
00:59:53
>> right?
00:59:54
>> Uh other than Scott, it's an excursion.
00:59:57
>> Well,
00:59:57
>> I'm teasing you. It's war. And well,
00:59:59
that's the mistake here is it should
01:00:00
have been a special it should have been
01:00:02
a military combat operation. Instead,
01:00:04
they've turned it into a war with no
01:00:06
objectives. But anyways,
01:00:08
by August, the narrative shifts shifts
01:00:11
from transitory war shock to holy [ __ ]
01:00:15
we may have broken the global financial
01:00:17
system. The S&P is off 20 to 40% from
01:00:21
its peak. Bitcoin goes to like 30,000.
01:00:25
Um, and you know, and quite frankly, the
01:00:27
only thing that probably goes up is
01:00:29
canned goods and ammunition
01:00:31
>> and Chevron. Um,
01:00:34
>> well, that's a scenario.
01:00:36
>> Happy South by Southwest.
01:00:38
>> But, but it's going to start, the
01:00:41
prediction is the following. It's going
01:00:42
to start, the contagion is going to
01:00:43
start in emerging markets that can't
01:00:45
afford
01:00:47
>> oil and uh, their debt is dollar
01:00:50
denominated. It's just a toxic cocktail.
01:00:52
It's a very accurate prediction, I have
01:00:54
to say.
01:00:55
>> So, and the problem is we've shot so
01:00:58
many bullets with our debt and printing
01:01:01
money that um the ECB and the Federal
01:01:05
Reserve doesn't have the same firepower
01:01:07
to try and lift us out of this.
01:01:10
>> Mhm.
01:01:10
>> So, in other words, it could be like a
01:01:12
an08 shock, but the problem is we we
01:01:15
have less ammunition for a bailout.
01:01:17
>> Yeah. Yep. With the tariffs, with the
01:01:19
debt, with everything. I mean, you know,
01:01:21
one of the things that uh did you hear
01:01:23
James Carville saying, "I don't have
01:01:24
enough Trump derangement syndrome. I
01:01:26
want more. I should, you know, I'm so
01:01:28
furious at this [ __ ] He was screaming
01:01:30
this what he has done here with this
01:01:32
Iran." And it all, as you have noted
01:01:34
many times, links back to Epstein again,
01:01:37
right? It links back to this guy.
01:01:39
>> He's the guy in every room
01:01:40
>> in every room. I think you're absolutely
01:01:42
right that this everything is motivated
01:01:45
by either people want to get before
01:01:47
while the getting's good or for
01:01:49
themselves or a an un unhealthy need to
01:01:54
hold on to power in a demented way like
01:01:58
I I remember when Elon said that one
01:01:59
time if Democrats it's an existential
01:02:02
crisis for the world if Democrats win.
01:02:04
Actually, as I always say,
01:02:07
every accusation is a confession. We're
01:02:09
in an existential crisis because of
01:02:11
these greedy [ __ ] and because of the
01:02:14
the need to hold on to power over
01:02:16
everything and it's going to it has
01:02:17
reverberations around the world.
01:02:19
>> There's some really interesting tax
01:02:20
proposals. Senator Booker proposed
01:02:22
basically a tax holiday for young people
01:02:25
which I which I love. Not that expensive
01:02:29
because young people don't make that
01:02:31
much money. Mhm.
01:02:32
>> We need to level up young people who are
01:02:34
24% less wealthy than they were 40 years
01:02:36
ago versus old people who are 72%
01:02:38
wealthier. And then
01:02:40
>> for the first time I saw a wealth tax
01:02:43
>> that could potentially
01:02:46
make sense. But instead of going after
01:02:47
billionaires
01:02:48
>> Mhm.
01:02:49
>> they should be going after anybody or
01:02:52
everybody that say has a well, you know,
01:02:54
more than call it $und00 million,
01:02:57
>> right?
01:02:58
>> You get no happiness. your kids will get
01:02:59
no incremental happiness from inheriting
01:03:01
that much money.
01:03:01
>> Billionaires were helping you lift your
01:03:03
wallets. Um,
01:03:04
>> and it should be it should be annual and
01:03:06
it should be small enough
01:03:07
>> such that people don't have to liquidate
01:03:09
assets
01:03:10
>> or move to Florida like
01:03:12
>> Yeah, it has to be federal.
01:03:13
>> Starbucks is just has to be federal.
01:03:15
You're absolutely right. That's great.
01:03:17
Okay. All right. We're going to talk
01:03:18
about that. That's going to be one of
01:03:19
our big topics at South by Southwest. We
01:03:21
Anyway, we want to hear from you. Send
01:03:23
us your questions about business tech or
01:03:25
whatever is on your mind. Go to
01:03:26
nymag.com/pivot
01:03:28
to submit a question for the show or
01:03:29
call 85551 pivot elsewhere in the Karen
01:03:32
Scott universe. I'm going to get serious
01:03:34
for a second. Monday I published a story
01:03:35
that I think I'm the most proud of of
01:03:37
anything I've done in a very long time.
01:03:39
I sat down with three Epstein survivors
01:03:41
who've been pushing for more
01:03:42
transparency with on on with career
01:03:44
survivor uh Liz Stein who's also a
01:03:47
survivor of childhood uh sexual abuse
01:03:50
said her desire to help her younger self
01:03:52
fuels her advocacy work. Let's listen to
01:03:54
a clip. It would be irresponsible of me
01:03:58
to have this position and to not use it
01:04:02
so that others did not feel alone in
01:04:05
this. Because if I could go back and
01:04:07
tell myself anything, it would be to
01:04:10
tell someone. And if they don't listen,
01:04:12
tell someone else. And just keep telling
01:04:14
until people listen to you. And even if
01:04:17
you feel like they don't, be proud of
01:04:19
yourself because you at least were able
01:04:22
to sit in your uncomfortable truth when
01:04:24
other people weren't. And that's really
01:04:26
what fuels me doing this advocacy, being
01:04:28
the person that I wish was there for me
01:04:31
when I needed them most. This was a
01:04:33
great show. They actually got to talk a
01:04:35
lot about it. Often you get these
01:04:36
shorter interviews. It was really very
01:04:39
moving. I dare I just listen to it. I
01:04:42
know everyone goes, "Oh, goodness."
01:04:43
>> Yeah. You can hear the emotion in her
01:04:44
voice.
01:04:45
>> Such dignity. such incredible strength,
01:04:48
such heroic behavior in in the face of
01:04:50
adversity. And uh you know, it was a lot
01:04:54
of I've gotten a lot of feedback that's
01:04:56
been I really appreciate, but it was all
01:04:58
these women. They were astonishing. It
01:04:59
has nothing to do with me, but I let
01:05:01
them talk and you should listen to what
01:05:03
they have to say as she said. Anyway,
01:05:05
that's the show. Uh thanks for listening
01:05:07
to Pivot. Be sure to like and subscribe
01:05:09
to our YouTube channel. We'll be back
01:05:11
next week.
