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Dan feifer is the co-host of crooked
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media's pod save America he's also the
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host of a new podcast polar coaster ha
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which is launching this week and we'll
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feature analysis on the latest polls and
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voter Trends welcome Dan thanks for
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having me so since you're the expert
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here let's start with some polling over
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the weekend the Wall Street Journal
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released a new poll with voters giving
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Biden the lowest job approval of his
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presidency at 37% in a head-to-head
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match up with Trump trump beats Biden 47
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to 43% now I we know it is early um
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uh the poll also shows uh Trump
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continuing to dominate the Republican
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field nearly 60% supporting him that's
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not new uh but Nikki Haley has numbers
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that are a stronger general election
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candidate beating Biden by 17 points uh
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so talk to us about this latest one
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because there's been a slew like this
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it's early again it it it is early and
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there's been a uh consistent set of
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these numbers are all kind of in the
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neighborhood slight Trump lead Biden
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under 40 approval rating Trump
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advantages on the economy immigration
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crime Israel Gaza with Biden holding an
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abortion on holding advantage on
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generally abortion and democracy and you
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know those civility those sorts of
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issues and I think it is like these are
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the polls that democrats should take
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seriously but not literally right that
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there is no question that if the that
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democ that Joe Biden is in if the
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election were held today Joe Biden would
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be in trouble and you can and would lose
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but if you there's a very simple I think
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explanation like in pure math as to why
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Trump is winning and Biden is not is
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that in look at the Wall Street Journal
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poll is that Trump is getting 92% of his
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2020 voters and Biden's getting 87% and
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that five and that is consistent across
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all of the polls and if and that is both
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that is alarming but that if you're look
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if you're the Biden team and you're
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looking for a silver lining those are
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the easiest voters to get back are the
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ones who've already cast the ballot for
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you and that's got to be what the focus
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is is heading into next year is
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beginning to rebuild that Coalition if
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you do that then we are headed for a
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once again a very very close election
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but one that is very winnable for Joe
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Biden okay so we keep hearing also about
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Nikki Haley momentum but realistically
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is there any scenario where she gets the
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nomination I would say no I think that
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if you look Nikki hilly is a non- Maga
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candidate in a Maga party uh there is a
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a whole bunch of polling shows that
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Ronda Sanz is actually a much more
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likely Republican nominee than Trump in
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an NBC poll the Republican primary from
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earlier this month More than 70% of
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Republican voters have Trump as their
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first or second choice 54% of Republican
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voters have DeSantis as their first or
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second choice and only 28% have Nikki
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Haley as their first or second choice
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and so her Universe of voter she's you
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know a factional candidate if you will
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she is consolidating this minority of
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the party and it's actually in a weird
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way way hurting her her approval rating
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keeps going down the better she does in
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the polls because she's going from being
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a non-trump to an anti-trump candidate
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so her net approval rating right now is
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12 points it's 4230 to santis for who we
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all very much myself at least make spent
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a lot of time making fun of for what an
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awkward weird terrible candidate he is
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he has a net approval rating of 45%
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right and Trump's net approval rating of
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above 60 and so n he's the other Trump
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he's the he's the other Trump right and
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if Donald Trump were to go to prison
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tomorrow Dr drop out of the race defect
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to Russia whatever else Ronda Sanz would
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be the overwhelming favorite to defeat
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Nikki Haley in a primary in a primary
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situation even though the general it's a
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real problem for yes yeah Nikki Haley is
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at least as we can tell right now and
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she's an she's a relatively generic
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non-trump Republican in the eyes of
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Voters uh but as of right now she's
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obviously I think very clearly the most
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electable Republican who who is in the m
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mix is in the mix but Trump carries
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those fans the F he has San doesn't have
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um let me ask you one more question then
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Scott will have a bunch of question I'm
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sure is is Biden they seem unworried in
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the Biden minut I've talked to a lot of
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people and I should they be more worried
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they sort of have this you know
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Grandpa's going to win again good old
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grandpa once you get a taste of crazy
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uncle you know great uncle Trump
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everyone will go oh that guy um what how
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do you it seems like that's a little
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sleepy to do and I hate to use the term
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sleepy around Joe Biden you know I think
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it's just it's like should they be more
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you know but the last time everyone
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counted him out and there he was okay
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let's just have grandpa again kind of
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thing he's safe I think my guess is that
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in reality the Biden folks are less
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worried than the general uh Democratic
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party which is in a state of sort of
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abject Panic at this point as they
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always are as they always are that is
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not unusual um the term weather was
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invented for a reason to describe my
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party um but I think they're more they
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are more worried or at least more um
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aggressively trying to shape the race
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and some of these public comments make
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because they spent $25 million in ads in
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the off year and that's not something
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you do if you think this race is going
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to naturally revert to the mean where
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it'll be Joe Biden with a four or fiveo
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national poll lead so I think that they
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are more worried than we think they are
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but I understand why there's no point in
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panicking right you have to go about
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doing your work I think they see the
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path to getting there but some of the
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things that they have tried thus far
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have not move the needle and I think
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that is probably
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worrisome Dan good to see you um so my
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sense of polls at this point aren't very
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good proxies for what will actually
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happen in terms of who wins and who
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loses but it can be really helpful in
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terms of identifying key issues and
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messaging if you were advising the
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candidates what messages do you think
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are bubbling up that weren't there four
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years ago that they want to focus on and
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then I'd be curious do for you to do the
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same
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analysis that you did on the Republicans
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on the Democratic side like is there
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another is it is that also a foregone
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conclusion that Biden's a nominee sure
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you're exactly right that the polls this
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far out have very little predictive
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value of what's going to happen but they
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are essential for understanding it's
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taking the temperature of where we are
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right now and so you know put us at you
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know we are to we talk all about polls
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media polls the ones on by The Wall
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Street Journal the NBC but campaigns are
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doing all these polls at the same time
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and every from everything I hear
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Democrat Democratic polls are seeing the
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exact same trends that we're seeing in
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the public in the public polls so this
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is everyone has the same analysis of
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where we are and I think it's a couple
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of things that uh would be the advice I
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would give Democrats and and Biden in
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particular here is one and you can see
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them doing this already is you have to
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make this more of a choice choice right
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in all of these polls people are much
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more focused on Joe Biden than Donald
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Trump and for a lot of
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Voters they haven't really thought about
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Trump at all since 2021 right you see
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this in in the NB New York Times Sienna
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poll the percent of Voters who are
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concerned about Donald Trump's
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temperament has gone down since 2020 the
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percent of Voters who think Donald Trump
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is unfit mentally for office has gone
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down since
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2020 and so you have to we have to focus
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the mind on the fact that Donald Trump
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is running and he is going to be the
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nominee and he has a very good chance of
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being president going forward the second
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thing is on the economy we have to stop
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like we're Democrats are in this debate
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of well people are unhappy but the
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economy is great and it's doesn't really
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matter what the macak numbers say it
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matters how people actually feel and I
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think this is you know I know you guys
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have talked this this a very very
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strange economy for a lot of people and
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how they experience it and so so we have
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to shift jobs the jobs numbers are a low
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priority for Americans right now their
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issue is not whether or not they're
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going to have a job it is what the cost
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of goods are it's not what the rate of
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inflation is it's the price of things
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and I think Democrats need to shift the
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framework more to away from here's what
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we've accomplished here's what all the
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progress we've made and focus really
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hard use what they've done as proof
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points for how they can lower costs and
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raise wages going forward and do that in
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a very contrastive way with Trump and
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all of these polls a place where Biden
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has real strength is that voters think
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that Donald Trump and the Republicans
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are more are less on the side of the
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middle class and more friendly towards
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the wealthy in corporations than
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Democrats and you want to draw that
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contrast so it has to be a choice not a
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ref it is a shi that's right there's
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also a lot of U prognosticating about
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what a potential Trump second term would
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be which is sort of the fear method of
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doing that Trump uh had the town hall
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with Shan Hannity last week where he
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didn't exactly say no to abusing power
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in a second term noting he would be uh
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dictated only on day one which you can
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do a lot in a day um you wrote about
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this in your newsletter saying many of
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the responses to Trump's comments are
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playing right into his trap obviously
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he's playing games I mean you can tell
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it by his smirk um how should we be
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talking about it I mean it's it's very
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it's terrifying and also what an [ __ ]
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you know you sort of get that same feel
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off of Elon Musk or or any of these like
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they're just trying to [ __ ] with you
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essentially yeah he very clearly was
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sort of smirking and Sean Han was
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completely flx that why Donald Trump
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would not take his repeated offers of a
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Lifeline in that moment but there is we
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have focused and I think rightfully on
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Donald Trump saying on day one but what
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keeps getting left out is what he said
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right after that which he's gonna he
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basically said I'm going to abuse power
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to secure the border and quote drill
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drill drill right so what he is trying
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to do is to say I am going to be an
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authoritarian but I'm going to be an
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authoritarian for you here's how I'm
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going to help your life right these we
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know that these things people care a lot
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about cost of energy and border is at
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the top of it's right below inflation on
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a lot of the polls in terms of concerns
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for voters what democrats should do is
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not we is we should avoid some traps
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first is we shouldn't run around talking
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about how strong Donald Trump is because
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strength is part of his appeal we have
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to talk about
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his NE the fact that he is weak right
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that he Donald Trump has never stood up
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to anyone in his life he Batts down to
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CEOs he bows down to dictators he's
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running for president not to help you
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but he's afraid to face the consequences
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for his actions in office last time make
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it about his weakness right Donald Trump
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what did is a trap to make us talk about
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how strong and fearful he is that that's
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one two we have to talk we have to
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empower voters to be the ones who can
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stop Donald Trump it's not that it is
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inevitable that he's going to take over
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the Robert Kagan column of his his
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dictatorship inevitable we have the
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power to stop him next then I think this
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is really important is we have to talk
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about how what Donald Trump would do how
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him being a dictator or seizing power
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abusing power would affect you
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right I think that one great way to do
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this is talk about abortion right the
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the Heritage Foundation and others have
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talked about how even if Donald Trump is
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unable to pass a federal abortion ban
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they can weaponize the federal
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government to put in fact a deao federal
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abortion ban right that they're going to
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you can do that across the board on
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issues about pollution and protecting
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clean air and clean water about helping
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workers right how Donald Trump will use
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the federal government to make it harder
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for you know the workers who who were on
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strike at UAW or at Starbucks and all of
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those things we have to make it matter
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people because if we don't and we just
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say Donald Trump's going to destroy
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democracy we are sort of by default
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saying that we are the ones who are
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going to defend this political system
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that most voters say is corrupt and
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doesn't work for them and so it has to
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be very very specific because if not
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we're just having this esoteric argument
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that means nothing to most voters and to
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most voters in some ways actually underg
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guards some of Trump's appeal that
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helped Propel him in 2016 he's a strong
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man uh
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Scott so the polls look really ugly for
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Biden so we we immediately think I mean
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they're kind of they're kind of shocking
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and so you immediately think oh wow
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things are going well for us if you're
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Progressive but anytime there's an
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election whether it's the legislature in
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I think it was Virginia or the the
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abortion bill in Ohio it appears that
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blue is winning
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everywhere what's wrong here I every
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time I see an actual election where
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people don't respond to a telephone or a
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phone survey they actually go in and
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pull pull a handle or or check a box it
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feels like we're doing really
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well this is a qu people have been
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really trying very hard to square this
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circle right the polls look bad but
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Democrats keep winning and both things
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can be true at the same time because
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these surveys we're looking at are
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surveys of the overall presidential
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election electorate which is in Most
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states 30 to 40% bigger than the people
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who vote in a midterm or even in a
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Donald with people V in midterms doing
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in these polls people who didn't even
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vote in 2020 that's a huge part of his
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advantage in the New York Times Sienna
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poll is he's beating Biden by 15 points
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by people who did not vote in 2020 so
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these are two separate universes and as
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of right now the Joe the presidential
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election universe is less Democratic
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friendly than the um than the midterm
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universe and this is the the part have
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switched in this regard as the Democrats
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have become more a party of college
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educated Suburban voters when I worked
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for President Obama Republicans were a
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much more reliable midterm party which
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is why Republicans could crush in the
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20110 midterms and then lose pretty
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handily in 2012 when Obama was on the
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ballot and the reverse is true
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now have you I just have a have a couple
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followup questions one since 2016 when
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Trump won my guess is 10 or 20 million
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American voters have died and there's 10
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or 20 million new voters how has that so
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you you've lost 70 and 80 somethings and
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you've gained 18 to 26 year old
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something how has that change the
00:14:07
electorate and I would just be curious
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if you have thought about how the
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conflict in the Middle East is uh likely
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playing out and does it Advantage Trump
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or Biden and let me put that put a
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caveat it's a year from now there'll be
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a whole different topic a year from now
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we won't be talking about this right
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goad um it
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is the 2020 2020 was a better Joe you
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know Joe Biden won the pp more than
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Hillary Clinton did in 2020 for a number
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of reasons but one I'm sorry Joe Biden
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did better in 2020 Hillary Clinton did
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in 2016 the popular vote for many reason
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one of them is the electorate was
00:14:42
becoming slightly more demographically
00:14:44
friendly to Democrats now the challenge
00:14:47
right now for Democrats is Donald Trump
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has made gains it is a question about
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how much those gains are
00:14:55
with younger Latino and black men so so
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that accounts for some of the
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demographic change where a few years ago
00:15:02
we thought those would automatically be
00:15:04
de Democratic votes at you know 85%
00:15:07
Democratic and it's much less than that
00:15:09
now and the the one of the challenges
00:15:11
for Biden is his Mis most disaffected
00:15:14
group the people who are most willing to
00:15:16
either sit out the election or uh vote
00:15:19
for a third party candidate like Cornell
00:15:21
West or RFK junor are voters 18 to 29 so
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if Biden was performing at 2020 levels
00:15:27
with those younger V you would sort of
00:15:29
see that uh more democratic shift in the
00:15:33
electorate based on those demographics
00:15:34
but that's not being maximized right now
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because of opinions on Biden on Gaza the
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polling on this is incredibly confusing
00:15:43
um because the narrative we all get is
00:15:47
uh younger Democratic voters are very
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angry at Joe Biden in the CBS News poll
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that came out on Sunday the only group
00:15:55
that do that the group with the highest
00:15:57
approval rating of Joe Biden on handling
00:15:59
the Israeli Gaza the Israeli Hamas
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conflict is voters 18 to 29 it's 50/50
00:16:05
and Joe Biden's underwater with all the
00:16:06
other groups they also asked people what
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to uh prioritize issues only 4% of
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Voters put the Israeli Hamas conflict as
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a high priority for them and so I think
00:16:19
but it could have a real impact in some
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states like Michigan that have a very
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large um Arab American population uh in
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particularly Palestinians and so it
00:16:28
could be If This Were to remain I think
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Cara's caveats incredibly important is
00:16:33
if if if this still were at the top of
00:16:34
the news a year from now or 11 months
00:16:37
from now then that's what the impact
00:16:39
could be yeah recent history says these
00:16:41
things tend to fade in the American
00:16:43
mindset when they're happening abroad
00:16:44
and maybe that will be the case here I
00:16:46
don't know but it's very possible if not
00:16:47
likely I will say talking to a lot of
00:16:49
young people they are irritated by Biden
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they they are for sure and they don't
00:16:54
think about Trump right now but I think
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they've lived with only Netanyahu that's
00:16:58
why I just feel they don't know anyone
00:17:00
else but so they don't like Netanyahu
00:17:02
but at the same time I think once they
00:17:04
get a taste of Uncle crazy I think
00:17:05
that'll they'll remind them of the same
00:17:07
thing especially around abortion
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abortion is a staying issue it feels
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like yes 100% with women especially even
00:17:13
everyone says oh now they're done with
00:17:14
abortion I don't think women are done
00:17:16
with that putting putting Protections in
00:17:18
place and I don't think they much like
00:17:20
book that's another thing I hear it's
00:17:22
like the book all the all the
00:17:23
meddlesomeness of the Republicans
00:17:25
especially the religious stuff from my
00:17:28
Johnson seems to stick in their craw
00:17:30
seems lasting MH okay Scott last
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question if you were to pick sort of a
00:17:35
best or worst exogenous event for either
00:17:39
candidate what would it be the best
00:17:43
thing that could happen for Joe Biden
00:17:44
and democracy would be Donald Trump
00:17:46
being convicted in the January 6 trial
00:17:48
in the for all the bad news uh all the I
00:17:51
guess the good news for Donald Trump and
00:17:52
all this polling is in that New York
00:17:53
Times C poll they actually asked people
00:17:55
what would happen if Donald Trump was
00:17:57
convicted and six only 6% of Voters
00:17:59
switch their vote away from Trump but
00:18:02
that 6% is enough to tip the election to
00:18:03
Joe Biden and I think we we do not spend
00:18:06
enough time talking and thinking about
00:18:07
what the very very real possibility that
00:18:09
Donald Trump will be sentenced to prison
00:18:11
for multiple federal crimes three or
00:18:14
four months before the election and if
00:18:15
that were to happen that is a we're not
00:18:17
I don't think we're fully anticipating
00:18:18
what a big game changer that is could be
00:18:20
for sure yeah yeah that I would agree I
00:18:22
think people do change their mind on
00:18:24
something like oh maybe not kind of
00:18:27
thing I don't know anyway Dan this is
00:18:28
fascinating again you have a new podcast
00:18:32
um you obviously on pod Safe America uh
00:18:34
each week but your new podcast polar
00:18:36
coaster just laughing at that I'm sorry
00:18:39
uh how did how long did they come up did
00:18:41
it take to come up with that we polar
00:18:43
coaster was the term that we would use
00:18:45
in the Obama campaigns for the people
00:18:46
who were checking the polls every single
00:18:48
day uh and we say and Dav get off get
00:18:52
off the [ __ ] polar coaster we've used
00:18:55
that a little bit on P America over the
00:18:57
years and my goal here with this podcast
00:18:58
is to help people understand what the
00:19:01
polls mean and think about what to use
00:19:03
it for completely ignoring poles that's
00:19:05
why this is this I that is a there there
00:19:08
there going to be people in this world
00:19:09
who want to ignore the polls and that's
00:19:11
that's very healthy but if you can't
00:19:13
ignore the polls and you're going to
00:19:14
live and die with them and you want to
00:19:15
understand what they really mean this is
00:19:17
the podcast for you if you go to c.com
00:19:20
you can get it I don't buy it tell me
00:19:22
you do Edibles without telling me you do
00:19:24
Edibles anyway it kicks off polar
00:19:27
coaster kicks off December 14th I like
00:19:29
polar coaster wait pass the Doritos
00:19:32
that's right let's watch let's watch
00:19:34
South Park and we're out okay J thank
00:19:36
you so much awesome thank you
00:19:41
guys
