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John we're back and we're talking about
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the presidential election and we have a
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special guest joining us and a John
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favro Super Fan Lou Swisher Louie come
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on on hello he's at NYU and he's
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studying abroad and so he gets a upfront
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uh and personal look at politics
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Argentinian style which there's a lot
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going on here but let's let's start with
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some polling uh the latest numbers are
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out and it's not great news for Joe
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Biden former president Donald Trump is
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leading the President Joe Biden in six
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out of seven swing States according to
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the Wall Street journal's New po
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Trump has a multi-point overall lead in
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these states that increases to double
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digits when it comes to questions about
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the economy inflation and immigration
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Biden does beat Trump on abortion rights
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an issue we'll discuss more in a bit
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John let's start with you on these
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numbers because Louis has a perspective
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that I think is really interesting but
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let's talk why don't you talk about what
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do you think about these numbers and uh
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why Biden doesn't get credit for the
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economy so I think caveat right any
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single poll you can't freak out over too
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much uh but if you throw it in the
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average I think the averages right now
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show Trump ahead by about a point and
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then if you go to the swing States he's
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ahead of about four in Arizona 2 to
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three Michigan three Nevada it's about
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tied in Wisconsin it's almost tied in
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Pennsylvania as well um so not great for
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Biden uh but it's early I guess that's
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so if you want reasons for optimism it
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is early so the numbers can change um I
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do think that the reason to your
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question about the economy I think when
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you go through inflation uh even though
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the rate of inflation has come down
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prices are still high and I think for a
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lot of uh people who were you know
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struggling even before uh inflation
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having higher prices uh you don't
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necessarily notice yet that your wages
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are also going up and so you're still
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you know it's a $112 hamburger and it's
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not a $13 hamburger anymore but you're
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still pissed that it used to be cheaper
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uh and I don't think I don't think
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that's gone away yet now the good news
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is I think consumer sentiment economic
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sentiment continues to rise and so um
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and you're starting to see in the polls
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views of the economy get a little bit
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better as well so it's slow going and
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obviously anything that happened between
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now and November but it is heading in
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the right direction but I do think that
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people are still pretty upset over
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inflation so what what when you saw
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these polls what did you think oh Jesus
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it's continuing it doesn't change it
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hasn't changed at all and how can this
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guy have such a great lead yeah so I
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think there's a few reason there's
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people who are still up there's people
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still upset about high prices um there
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is I think the fact that Trump is now
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the Challenger really helps him because
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he is comfortable in that role and you
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know when Joe Biden ran in 2020 Joe
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Biden didn't have a record that everyone
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knew and was pissed about as president
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and Biden now has a record and to the
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extent that people are upset about high
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prices to the extent that they feel like
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you know they're upset about immigration
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they're upset about uh they just this
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General Gaza there's a general feeling
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that the sort of the world is out of
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control kind of thing and the president
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the incumbent always gets the The Lion
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Share of the blame for that and so I
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think he's struggling with that I also
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think memories are short uh which is why
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you see Trump get all these like
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retrospectively high higher approval
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ratings from his first
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term um than anyone would expect uh I do
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think that the more we see Trump and the
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more we hear of trump um from Trump uh
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during this campaign his numbers will
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sort of settle back to where they were
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when he was president uh at least that's
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the hope that's what the Biden campaign
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is hoping as well um and so yeah and so
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I think that's part of the part of and
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then of course I think Biden's other big
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challenge is third party
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threats because Trump has a a low
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ceiling but a high floor and so he
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really has never been able to hit 50 in
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all the times he's run but he won't need
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to if these third parties start taking
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away votes from Joe Biden Joe Biden
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Louis swisser what do you think about
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this you and I have been arguing for
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days about this situation I am more in
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the John Camp but you have a different
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perspective why don't you educate us I
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don't know if I can but um yeah I I um
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well I do really appreciate your convers
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what you and John John were commenting
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on and I think uh that there's a strong
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sentiment for the Biden campaign going
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into the 2024 election but the thing
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that really bothers me is that um voters
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have like they've watched this movie
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before we saw in 2020 uh Trump versus
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Biden and now we see it again and I
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think the electorate is generally pretty
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fatigued with these two options and uh
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because of that and the other things we
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were talking about and how the incumbent
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is usually blamed for the state of the
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country regardless of what may have come
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before the incumbent that led to these
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things um I think that's going to be a
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really big challenge for Biden but one
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thing I really appreciated recently was
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uh an interview with Simon Rosenberg uh
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by Adam Nery in the New York Times that
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was a you know he's a Democratic
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strategist and I thought his really
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confident attitude about Biden going
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forward was just something to um admire
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and to try to replicate throughout the
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uh Biden campaign because what about it
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what about it in terms of because one of
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the things you're saying a lot of your
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friends are sort of trump they're fine
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with Trump
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correct well yeah something I've seen
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really recently is that um a lot of
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young people are so dissatisfied with
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the Biden uh the status of the Biden
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Administration that they're willing to
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uh just let Trump come up into the uh
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Forefront and uh just pass on for what
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he's going to his vision of the country
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in 2025 and um I I think that is just uh
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pretty ignorant to try to just look past
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the accomplishments of the Biden
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Administration and to give Trump a
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general pass up to the White House
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because I think the going forward with
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issues that are really important to
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young voters like uh the war in Israel
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the economy the status of student loan
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debts I think these things will be
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really really uh really much better in
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the hands of Biden than in Trump but why
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are they giving him a pass what is what
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do they say to you when you're you know
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when you're arguing because you yourself
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are a little bit like H Biden sometimes
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well it's kind of hard not to be a
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nihilist if you're gen of the Generation
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Z I think um pretty H because I don't
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know I think we had a lot of moments of
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Hope in our uh you know the past 20 30
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years of American politics um and but
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the problem is that time after time
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we've been handed uh defeats or setback
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or laybacks and I think that just really
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is getting to gen Z but I doesn't I
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don't think that's going to I don't
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think we're going to give up because of
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that I think we're going to fight harder
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and I think um the thing that the Biden
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campaign really has to do going forward
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is to try to just make a pitch to the
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country that if you reelect Joe Biden
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there are still options on the table uh
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with Donald Trump there's not as many
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options on the table because Joe Biden
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you know he there are legitimate
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criticisms of his administration and his
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campaign and his promises whether or not
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they've been kept but the thing about
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Joe Biden is that he is willing to
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reflect and reform you seen this on his
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stances in on lgbtq rights uh crime to
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some extent and I think that um going
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forward like it's really just important
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to remember that with Joe Biden you
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could have the potential for a
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conversation but with Donald Trump it's
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his way or the highway and that is a
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that is really dangerous and you know
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you don't want to you don't want to give
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that guy a good card I can sense your
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frustration both with your friends who
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uh uh don't care if Trump wins and and
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you about the Biden Administration the
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way I think about it is like
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we have to we have to avoid thinking
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about our vote as either a reward or
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punishment for Joe Biden or for Donald
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Trump it's ultimately not about Joe
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Biden and Donald Trump it is about us it
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is about the future that we decide for
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ourselves and there are two choices
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there's Joe Biden's going to be
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president or Donald Trump's going to be
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president there are I mean you can vote
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for third party it's not going to happen
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it's they're not going to win we don't
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even know if there's uh any of these
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third party candidates are on the ballot
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in enough states to win if if they could
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right to actually get 270 electoral
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votes so then you have a choice between
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Joe Biden and Donald Trump and I think
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it you know Nuance isn't uh isn't
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people's specialty in politics these
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days but like I very much disagree with
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Joe Biden's Gaza policy I also think I
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love most of everything else he's done I
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have personal affection and respect for
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him and I'll be doing I'm I spend every
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waking hour trying to make sure that he
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and Democrats get elected so people like
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how could you do that with the Gaza
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policy it's like well because there are
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whole bunch of other issues because
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elections are a choice because Donald
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Trump I absolutely believe would be much
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worse than Joe Biden not just on Gaza
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but yes on Gaza but on everything on
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every single other issue and so what I'd
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rather do is exactly what you said Louie
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which is Joe Biden has shown that even
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though he is an 81-year-old fairly
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mainstream Democrat who's been in public
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service forever he has even from 2020 to
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now he's been very open to progressives
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not only challenging him but persuading
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him him to change positions on multiple
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issues and he's governed domestically as
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one of the most Progressive presidents
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of our lifetime and has accomplished
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quite a bit that way and so I think that
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Progressive should see that as a win
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right that they have a president who
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they never thought that the Joe Biden of
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all people would be this guy who you
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could push to um to pass Progressive
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like really Progressive legislation and
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he's listened right and so I think he
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gives you a better chance than Donald
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Trump does so let me ask you one more
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question you do talk a lot about about
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Gaza how important is it to younger
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people more Progressive people say but
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not necessarily it's obviously sticks in
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your craw in a way that I hadn't seen
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that before from you you're usually
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pretty evenhanded on a lot of stuff yeah
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I think this is a really really
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important issue because um it is going
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to model how we engage with our allies
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and our enemies and how we engage with
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foreign relations for the years to come
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because right now the United States is
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uh you know not not checking itself and
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not questioning its own support of uh a
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really really I think unhinged and uh
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you know progressively dangerous regime
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in Israel I really appreciated and um
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agreed with Ben roads the other day on
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uh pod save the world I thought he had
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some really good comments on uh
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especially the recent uh world uh
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kitchen strike and you know the status
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of why why are we still supporting this
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regardless of the fact that we've been
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shown time and time again that the
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Israeli government does not listen to
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the United States and uh especially when
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we are sending them weapons and weapons
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and weapons and signing more more deals
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to support Israel but we're not getting
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anything in return or we're not getting
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any um response from net Yahoo's
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Administration on our legitimate
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requests for you know first formost we
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send weapons without any um knowledge of
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well until after the fact of what these
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weapons are being used for with no
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checks and boundaries and I think going
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forward if the United States doesn't put
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a foot down it's going to set a very
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dangerous precedent um for not only our
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uh allies to you know stretch our limits
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but also for
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the the consequences of this
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unquestioned support going forward um
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and what kind of retaliation that could
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face in the future I think this is a
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really important and it has resonance
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with you yeah yeah I think it has
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resonance with you I think because also
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it's such a it's such a visible crisis
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and that we're able to see time and time
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again on Twitter on Instagram videos of
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on the ground of what is happening and
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especially with you know the algorithms
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of Tik Tok and Instagram that are so uh
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engagement focused that these things are
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put into our face time and time again
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and uh young voters
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can I ask you do you think you're being
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manipulated by them that's what the
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obviously a lot of people say that
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you're getting obviously I've but I've
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been raised in the I've been raised in
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the manipulation Our Generation has been
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scrolling for years and so I think to
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some extent we figured that out and we
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know when we're being lied to and we
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know when to look for things like I can
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spot I can spot an AI deep fake like
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nothing you know I I know I know what it
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is and um I I uh I think yeah it's it's
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older people that lose their minds it is
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but I think because we are the
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information generation
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um we have so much coming at us from so
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many Ang all the time that it is just
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really it it hurts our brains almost to
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try to consider all these Global events
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that you know it that for years and
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years before you didn't really resonate
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with it unless you were seeing it and
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now we are seeing it and so that is why
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it's so impactful for younger generation
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and also it really goes against the
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morals that we've been told for years
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and years and years that our country
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stands for not only on a domestic sense
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but also on an international sense and
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our like quest to spread democracy
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around the world so big air quotes but I
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mean people talk about you know the end
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of democracy is a shorthand and that can
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seem alarmist and I also think that you
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really need to um make that tangible for
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people but uh even if Donald Trump wins
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the presidency and uh doesn't have a
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republican Congress which I think is
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highly unlikely if he wins I think he
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will have a republican Congress
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certainly a senate hopefully uh not a
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house but very possible um even if he
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doesn't have Congress and he can't pass
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legislation what he can do through
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executive action alone is terrifying he
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has said that he wants to and his
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advisers have said that they want to
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invoke the Insurrection act that's
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that's using the US military against
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protesters they want to use the US
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military to uh also and National Guard
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to go into cities across the country and
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conduct Mass deportation raids these are
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not like new migrant arrivals at the
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border kind of thing this is going into
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workplaces and communities and dragging
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people out and checking their papers um
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he wants to uh pardon people who
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violently assaulted police officers on
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January 6th imagine the me message that
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sends to other people who want to commit
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political violence that joh that Donald
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Trump just let all these violent uh
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people who tried to kill cops out of
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prison and then he wants to uh send the
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FBI and the doj after pretty much anyone
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who disagrees with him politically right
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it's not just like he wants the the
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Biden crime family stuff and put throw
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Biden in jail imagine him investigating
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businesses the IRS is coming after you
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the I mean that he's he's promised to
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investigate MSNBC right like it is
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things can go downhill really fast and
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if he wins people say oh maybe the
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courts will stop him but uh you know Liz
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Cheney said this to me when I was
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interviewing her like she's like why
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would he listen to The Courts at that
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point he has he has he he can you know
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they're going to say you and you know go
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ahead and force your ruling with what
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army uh and so it is possible that he's
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too lazy to do some of this stuff right
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it is possible that he doesn't get to
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all of it because he's too competent but
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I don't know even if he does half of
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what he's already talked about as
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president it's pretty dangerous pretty
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dangerous would you care if Taylor Swift
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backed by I just have to ask I mean she
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did it before right she did it before um
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so I think she's probably going to do it
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again um her how do you decision my vote
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it doesn't celebrities celebrities
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should stay away from this one I think I
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think I am someone who um believes in a
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lot in like keeping the personal life
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personal and um I think politics can
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blend into that but I think political
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activism doesn't have to so I think
00:15:03
political subies could get political in
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their activism sense but you know the
00:15:07
whole vote Joe Biden because I'm going
00:15:08
to vote for Joe Biden message it it
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could get a little fatigued by election
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day I see interesting it's got to be
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real and authentic right I think I
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always think about Normie voters we are
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not Normie voters uh on this this
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podcast right now but there are a lot of
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people again who will not tune in and
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you know a someone that they really
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admire is a signifier and if person
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talks authentically about why they think
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it's important to vote for Joe Biden or
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they think it's important that Donald
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Trump isn't president again I do think
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that can have an effect on people who
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whose minds are not made up which I know
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it seems impossible to believe that
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there's people whose minds are not made
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up but whether they're not made up
00:15:44
between voting for Biden or Trump or
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just whether they're going to vote at
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all um there's there's a lot of
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persuasion work to be done and and you
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have to try everything to reach some of
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these voters who just aren't paying as
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much attention and sometimes that can be
00:15:59
a celebrity endorsement sometimes that
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can be a good friend having a tough
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conversation with them sometimes it can
00:16:04
be a podcast they listen to something
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they read there's just there's so many
00:16:07
different ways and the other important
00:16:08
thing here is that like all of us if if
00:16:11
you really want Joe Biden to win and you
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don't want Donald Trump to be president
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like we have the ability to be
00:16:16
Messengers like the the people who are
00:16:18
going to play the biggest role are the
00:16:19
people who have already decided that
00:16:21
they are going to support Joe Biden
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trying to go out there and talk to other
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people that they know in their networks
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to convince them to do the same thing
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and I don't think that works necessarily
00:16:29
going to be easy but I think that's
00:16:30
going to be the critical work of the
00:16:32
campaign anyway thank you Louie thank
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you so much I'll see you soon you're
00:16:35
going to come over and see your mama
00:16:37
before I leave yeah we'll get a
00:16:42
coffee
