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Brian Derek is a political strategist
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and the CEO and founder of oath a
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fundraising platform that uses data to
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rate and identify high stake elections
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um the aim is to direct donors to
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campaigns where their money will have
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the Maximum Impact Brian welcome thank
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you for having me on okay uh so let's
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talk about Oath talk about how it works
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in terms of taking donations and
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directing the money because as Scott
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just said a second ago before you came
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on money is where it's at and he calls
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himself a porpus he will explain it to
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you um of a donation but you said the
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problem oath is trying to solve is a
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tendency for donors to rage donate into
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the abyss there are a lot of villains in
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the political ecosystem that get people
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very angry and that generate this
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emotional response whether it's marger
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Taylor green or Lauren bobbert or
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somebody else and in the last eight
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years that has really turbocharged this
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Grassroots donor environment where
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people see something happen on the news
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or hear about it on a podcast on Twitter
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and then immediately run and donate to
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try and get that person out of office
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when really those funds could be much
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better used somewhere else maybe just to
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keep that person out of power um and so
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what we set up with oath is a free
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platform where people can go see what
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their donations are actually going to
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accomplish um we do objective analysis
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to say where are dollars needed the most
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to advance the thing that you care about
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right now whether that's Repro rights or
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protecting democracy and how can you
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direct it as Str ically as possible um
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without getting sort of the blowback of
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a thousand text messages and phone calls
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asking for more money all right Scott so
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before you came on I trifurcated donors
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into three buckets and my sense is the
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thing that gets him out probably the
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most quickly let's assume that he's
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totally defined and doesn't sees Nancy
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speaker Pelosi at his door and just says
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sorry Nancy I'm not interested in
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talking to anybody and says you know
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it's Obama on line one and he says I'm
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not interested he just goes totally
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defiant
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if the money tap gets shut off it gets
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very hard for him to stay in the race
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and Loosely speaking three buckets and
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by the way tell me if these are the
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wrong buckets big donors medium-sized
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small donor my sense of the big donors
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is they're just taking a wait and see
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attitude they're not going to throw
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millions of dollars into an abyss and
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not understand if and who it's going to
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my sense of the medium-sized B donors
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and this is anecdotal evidence and I'm
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one of them is that we are an open
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Revolt we are not only signing letters
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and have sto giving money to the Biden
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campaign but are starting to give money
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and are ready and prepping to give money
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to other candidates and then the small D
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Money donors are just getting inundated
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with desperate emails from the Biden
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campaign as they attempt to show some
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signs of Life tell me where I got that
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wrong and and what it means in terms of
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is the tap going to get has it been shut
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off I think that it has turned into a
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trickle for sure um a lot of donors are
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pulling back at least at the
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presidential level we've seen a increase
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in traffic to oath um tens of thousands
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of donors looking to give but they're
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not looking to give to the Biden
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campaign or or similar they're looking
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to give to down ballot races in these
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competitive states where maybe a
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progressive or um exciting younger
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candidate um could turn out people who
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might ultimately vote for the Democratic
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nominee for president regardless of who
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that is it's called reverse coattails
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strategy we're seeing a lot of
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enthusiasm there at the Grassroots level
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but I I think that you're right
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particularly in this mid-level tier um
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that people are looking for other
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options and they're looking to exert
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influence to to try to pressure Biden to
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exit the race and have a more viable
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candidate somebody with a A Wider path
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to Victory take his place there's also
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um a a partner that oath is working with
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called pass the torch which has set a
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fund where you can give to whoever the
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nominee might be so long as that person
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is a new candidate um it's literally
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just launching today actually but um I I
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I think that all of these are examples
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of how people are still looking to
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advance their values people are really
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concerned about the stakes of the
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election but they want to do it in the
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the Strategic way how how concerned are
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you will happen to down ballot
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candidates if he stays in the race um
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staying away from that how even if these
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you're directing him in the right places
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How concerned are you you know I I know
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reverse coattails but there is such a
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thing as coattail definitely very
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concerned oh yeah I want to be clear
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extremely concerned I had my staff which
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are mostly engineers and data analysts
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prepare a memo last week that said the
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worst case scenario and so if Biden
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loses in a landslide right we can
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imagine a debate performance similar to
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happened a few weeks ago another moment
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like that right before the election um
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if he loses in a landslide what does
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that do to the US Senate the US House
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State Legislative races State Supreme
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Courts and it's devastating to look at
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the stakes are incredibly high of course
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for the White House but they're
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incredibly high up and down ballot when
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you have election deniers and farri
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extremists running to take over very
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important parts of our government all
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across the country and so we can't
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afford to have a year like 20 10 when
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Democrats fell asleep at the wheel in
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the midterms with Obama in office um
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truly we we cannot uh sustain or or um
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our democracy may not be able to survive
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a result like that and so that is why
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we're trying to focus people's attention
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on these races that it's true that
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there's a down ballot effect but even if
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we underperform at the top of the ticket
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for whatever reason we can save some of
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these Supreme Court seats we can save
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State Legislative seats and avert a
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worst case scenario one of the things
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that Biden admin Biden people are saying
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is they raised all that money after the
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debate the $28 million or whatever on on
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small donations but who matters more
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we've already seen some major donors
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including Barry Diller and Netflix uh
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Reed Hastings AR Emanuel publicly
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halting their support Rick Caruso until
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there's a new Democratic nominee other
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big donors are are going to support
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there was one particular one that's
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supporting one supporting him and some
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say they're shifting their funding to
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House and Senate races a lot of people
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are saying that to me um how uh how
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who's more important these big whales or
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porpuses like Scott or or what what
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matters with the money here you can't
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make it work entirely without both you
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you need both in order to put together
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the scale of campaign that is required
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to win in in 2024 but I will say at the
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presidential level where Biden in
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hardside dollars is expected to spend
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over a billion dollars a significant
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portion of that is coming in six figure
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checks um to the Biden Victory fund and
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so the Grassroots support is critical
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and also builds momentum and all of
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these um signifiers of party strength
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and unity very important but when it
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comes to how many offices you can open
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in the Battleground States how much time
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you can be up refuting attack ads and
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and those kinds of things a a big chunk
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of that money does come from this middle
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tier that Scott's referring to and and
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high dollar donors as well what do you
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think so what is the next if you will
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litmus
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test that publicly and privately sends a
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very strong signal uh around
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fundraising um is it do they get daily
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reports weekly reports what publicly
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says all right this is a this now has
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his donations have dried up when does
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when do we see that we will not see the
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those figures until early August unless
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they choose to release some data
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beforehand um there's a quarterly report
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that we'll get on July 16th but it'll
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mostly have the same information that we
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just got um from the uh monthly report
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that we get about the national
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committees it will be I will say as
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someone who's worked in campaign Finance
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for most of my career you can weave a
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lot of different narratives out of uh
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Finance data about the strength of your
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campaign or how much your uh you have
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versus your opponent
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um Biden has raised so much money to
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date a historic amount of funds that
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he's not going to be um like shutting
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down campaign offices or laying people
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off that is not sort of in the realm of
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possibility in the next six weeks um so
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he he will not face a cash cash crunch
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before the convention and if he leaves
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the Convention as the nominee the money
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Taps many of many of which I think
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they're making the calculation will turn
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on again because people will have
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nowhere else to go but what are you I'm
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just what what are you seeing you're in
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this community right across your buddies
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that you talk to or meet with over a
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beer I don't know where you live or
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coffee or or I'm worried that saying
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someone drinks beer is somehow a hate
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crime now but anyways what are you
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hearing
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what are you hearing in terms of is it
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off 90% is it off 10% is it am I being
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alarmist I would imagine it's literally
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just stopped what are you hearing in
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terms of donations to Biden and to
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Democrats in general what's going on out
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there I'm hearing I'm part of multiple
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um different donor collectives or donor
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groups um that I either advise or am a
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member of that are having parallel
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conversations
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around how can we make a change here to
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match the crisis of the moment that
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we're in and so either people are making
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the choice to um withhold money
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entirely uh which would allude to the
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sort of change that you're referring to
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but I think that it's more common that
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they're changing the targeting um that
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as you uh mentioned Cara that they're
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looking at Senate races and house races
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that they're setting up new super packs
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to support alternate candidates um and
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so there's still a lot of money moving
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there's no real way for us to assess the
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damage being done directly to Biden's
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accounts and how how much that has
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slowed I I can't estimate so in that
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vein aside from what's going on at the
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top that what's the most important race
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no one's talking about where have you
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been pushing give us a two examples or
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one example there's many I would say
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state supreme court races in Michigan
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and North Carolina incredibly important
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this cycle um people often Overlook
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State Supreme Courts but they influence
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how maps are drawn what voting rights we
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have Reproductive Rights gun legislation
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all kinds of things are decided at that
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level um so I think that both of those
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will be really critical and then I would
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also point to
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the state ledge races happening in
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Arizona um both Chambers are currently
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controlled by Republicans but could flip
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to Democrats with a strong uh robust
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turnout campaign in Arizona even if we
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lose at the presidential level the way
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that the districts are drawn it's still
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possible that we could flip those
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chambers and reverse Arizona's uh
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abortion ban um which would be vitally
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important to of course millions of
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people living there and then the the
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last one I'll sneak in are the ballot
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measures big year for ballot measures
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dozen states putting Reproductive Rights
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on on the ballot also
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anti-gerrymandering ballot measure in
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Ohio um in Missouri there's one for a
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living wage lots of really great
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opportunities for direct direct
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democracy when you think about what's
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happening now I realize it's
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unprecedented but everyone's like you
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can't go into chaos we have to stick
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with Joe Ezra Klein made a very good
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argument why Kos is okay is okay
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risk-taking is okay do you think it's a
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good time to take a risk and I assume
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the money will flow to whoever they
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decide if they take a risk and do it in
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a non-chaotic way not ridiculously
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chaotic is what I'm talking about um but
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is that is is that the worst thing to
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create chaos for the Democratic party
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can you answer those critics that say
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that that you can't do it now it's too
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late I think that the the damage has
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been done in terms of chaos and
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unfortunately while I support him and
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and have spent a lot of time talking
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about his successes it was done by
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President Biden he entered this chaos
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into the conversation with his debate
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performance and so now all we can do is
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respond to it I said right after the
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debate it's going to be a very
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uncomfortable six weeks until the
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convention and then after that it will
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be settled one way or the other whether
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it goes the way I hope it does or not we
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only have a few weeks left of this of
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this potential chaos but Joe Biden
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coming out every single day and saying
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he's staying in the race is not going to
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quiet it either so I think that you can
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take the um desire for a a neutral piece
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out of the equation and just decide what
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you want to come out of the chaos do you
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want a new candidate to come out on the
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other side and the energy and sort of
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the historic nature that might come with
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that or do we want to stick to Biden and
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cross our fingers that we make it across
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the Finish Line in November but either
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way now through the convention is going
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to be a rocky couple of weeks um with a
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lot of uncertainty and unanswered
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questions Scott last question so we've
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been talking a lot about Biden do you
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have a sense for where Trump's
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fundraising
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is in contrast or compared to July of
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2020 in a much stronger position um than
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2020 I'd have to pull the exact numbers
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but he has spent the last three months
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in back rooms with billionaires and they
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have really stepped up we saw uh Tim
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melon who also is supporting RFK Jr one
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of his largest owners just write a $50
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million check to a trump super pack
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absolutely huge amounts of money he also
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met as I'm I'm sure you're you've talked
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about uh with oil exec and asked them to
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raise him a billion dollars um and said
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that he would make some policy changes
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to his platform in in exchange and so he
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really has leaned in to the
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billionaire club um is amending his
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platform actively things like
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flip-flopping on Tik Tok in order to
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appease them and it is paying dividends
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and we're seeing that in his
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dramatically accelerated uh fundraising
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post conviction but you brought up
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something you mentioned RFK Jr just
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quickly we'd be not to ask fundraising
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for RFK Jr and what that says about the
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race I think the RFK Junior's campaign
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um has always been propped up by just a
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handful of people who have other
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interests in his candidacy continuing
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whether that's his running mate um who's
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written Millions at this point maybe
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over 10 million in checks um to to his
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campaign or whether it's uh billionaires
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who have their own interests in who they
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think he will take votes away from but
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there are certainly no Grassroots energy
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or Grassroots donation um campaign in
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order to fund and scale an RFK Jr ticket
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he would not even have the funds to make
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it on the ballot in many states uh
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without these million plus dollar checks
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that people have been writing to help
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him interesting all right Brian this is
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really helpful I think people should
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just calm the [ __ ] down that's our
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feeling just like think think logically
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about where the money should go
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including these down pallot races you
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mentioned but people can go to oath.
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vote to learn more and figure out what
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you were interested in voting for and
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that you can put money to use in ways
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that are probably more helpful going
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forward thank you so much thanks for
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having me on
