00:00:00
my Top Gun shirt. See you. Oh god, that's literally the worst spring break I've ever seen.
00:00:10
Hi everyone, this is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network and I'm Tom Cruz.
00:00:17
You're excited about that, huh? I am. I'm I got the 10:00 show. I'm going to the late show. It's 3 hours [ __ ]
00:00:22
long. Do you know that? 2 hours and 49 minutes. Wow. I know. Could be a lot of
00:00:27
Tom Cruz. That is a lot of That is a lot of Tom Cruz. You're a big fan though. I'm not a fan of him as a person, the
00:00:34
Scientology part, but I love all the whole woke conditioning thing. He doesn't he doesn't pass my purity test.
00:00:39
I don't think it's a very good group of people from all that I've read. It's not a purity test. Well, neither is the Catholic Church. He sounds like a pretty
00:00:45
nice guy, though. No, he's always he really sells these movies. I have to say he's out there. He's in theaters. He
00:00:52
like he does the work. I He is a very hardworking massive celebrity. He really
00:00:58
is the kind of the movie star that defines our generation at least. Absolutely. Um anyway, I'm a I'm a I
00:01:06
don't love Tom Cruz movies, but I'm a huge Tom Cruz fan. I just think he's he works so hard. I love that he has a
00:01:12
certain fidelity to movies in the big screen and he's trying to promote theaters. Yeah. And everything I've
00:01:18
heard about him anecdotally about people who have interactions with him is that he's a very lovely guy. Yeah. Hard
00:01:25
worker. Hard worker. That's what I appreciate. That's what I want to see. And I like the movies. I'm sorry. I love all the movies he's in. I There's not a
00:01:31
movie. I was just thinking of re-watching Taps. Do you remember Taps? That was really, even though he got famous in Risky Business, Taps, he
00:01:38
played a crazy over-the-top uh military school cadet and and Tim Hutton.
00:01:44
Remember, they took over the school in the name of the I do remember it. As a matter of fact, this is how things
00:01:49
change. The star of the movie who got paid more was Timothy Hutton. He was the heart drop at the time. And also the
00:01:54
other guy who was number two behind Tom or ahead of Tom Cruz in terms of the billing was Sean Penn. Sean Penn. You're
00:02:01
right. That's right. And it was all like what did they do and this and that. But Tom Cruz was the crazy one who like was
00:02:07
all in like he was f he was fantastic in Born on the 4th of July. He should have he was great in Tropic Thunder. He
00:02:13
should have won an Oscar for that. I think Brad Pitt and Tom Cruz were denied Oscars and Oscar nominations because
00:02:19
they're so good-looking. Good looking. I think that Tom Cruz and Born on the Fourth of July was absolutely he he was
00:02:26
out that was such a moving performance. There's a scene in that I remember
00:02:31
there's a scene in that where he comes home. Mhm. You know, it's it's based on a guy I think Ron Kovak who was
00:02:36
paralyzed in the Vietnam War and there's such a moving scene between him and his father. you know, the mom is sort of
00:02:42
overbearing and the dad's a softy and this kid, you know, he's a kid back from Vietnam and he has this wonderful
00:02:48
um um as I think about it actually I love Tom Cruz as an actor. There's this scene where he's like, you know, putting
00:02:55
him to bed and hooking up his catheter and he's like sobbing. He's like, "Dad, who's ever going to love me?" So
00:03:00
powerful. And then another great uh really powerful scene is from a great
00:03:06
movie called Magnolia, which he didn't get the credit he deserves. another great movie where he's um next to his uh
00:03:13
dying father who abandoned him. He's obviously I I I have some some of my own
00:03:19
father issues, but he really is, as I think about it, really an outstanding actor. Anyway, I'm very excited and I'm
00:03:26
I'm going to be up very late, but I'm super excited to go. One quick note before we move on about an extreme
00:03:32
escalation in the Trump administration's war with Harvard. Homeland Security Secretary Christy Gnome, also known as
00:03:38
ICE Barbie, and that's a compliment, ordered her department to terminate Harvard's student and exchange visitor
00:03:44
program certification, effectively barring the university's ability to admit foreign students. Harvard says it
00:03:50
has nearly 10,000 people in its international academic population. And in an unusually petty move for the Trump
00:03:56
administration, which has specializes in petty moves, uh they have attacked Harvard in this way that really uh could
00:04:03
hurt a lot of foreign students. I think probably this will not happen. I think Trump administration will back down as
00:04:08
it always does. It's just another cell though that it likes to do publicly. Uh probably if they keep at it, it will go
00:04:14
to the Supreme Court. Um and which is interesting because four of the nine justices went to Harvard Law School and
00:04:20
two of them also went to Harvard College. The rest went to Yale and other, you know, important universities
00:04:26
around the country. Um, I do think that eventually the Trump administration is going to pay for this kind of behavior
00:04:32
and we'll lose lose lose lose lose again in court. Anyway, um, I have a quick
00:04:37
update for you on the fake Scott scam that's floating around on Instagram. It
00:04:42
only carries so powerful. You connect me with literally like
00:04:49
Anyways, go ahead. Tell them the story. So, you had complained about this. This is fake Scots and I think it's absolutely something to complain about.
00:04:55
I have the same issue on Amazon with fake carouser books. Um, they don't take the care to get them down. And I think
00:05:01
you made the very salient point that you don't see this in the New York Times or MSNBC or CNBC, but or Snap or even
00:05:08
YouTube, anything. What is Tell them what happens. There's fake Scott selling investment advice, right? A bunch of my
00:05:14
friends texted me and said, "Have you seen this?" And some even said, "Should I do this?" and I click on it and it's
00:05:20
an AI generated Scott saying please sign up for my WhatsApp group and there's a fee involved where I will share with you
00:05:26
two to three stock tips every week for us to do that but go ahead well it
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was everywhere and it was a scam and that is just terrible for my brand and I I we
00:05:39
purposely I don't we don't take crypto investments we turn down a lot of money and I'm we're even quite cautious about
00:05:46
uh doing financials because I take very seriously that I want young men to have economic security. And I think there's a
00:05:51
bunch of grifters out there that have moved from finance to health who basically claim they can outperform the
00:05:57
market if you just send them your 49 bucks and they'll give you insider stock tips or that you can't trust the
00:06:03
industrial food complex to buy their [ __ ] ridiculous supplement even though they they they they failed biology in high school. And I'm very
00:06:10
sensitive to the fact that young men can be very seduced by this. And I think uh we both take economic viability very
00:06:16
seriously in young people. So, the fact that I'm yoga pants for our customers, but go ahead. But there's literally
00:06:21
probably tens of millions of people who have seen me trying to shill a [ __ ] investment form on WhatsApp. That is
00:06:28
just not and most of them don't realize it's a scam. They just ignore it. That is not good for my brand. That inhibits
00:06:33
my ability to make a living. That hurts my brand equity, my reputation. That is
00:06:39
the definition of liable and defamation. and they they can with you AI figure out
00:06:47
if someone in your house is about to go to a Beyonce concert, but they can't find they can't take that one ad and
00:06:54
send out a crawler across their network and go anything saying this is fake and we're going to pull it down right away. They could do that at about a f if they
00:07:00
took two minutes of an engineer's time or two hours of an engineer's time to do it across everyone, they could get rid
00:07:06
of all this [ __ ] But instead, they throw up their arms and say it's just too complex and then they sent me we've
00:07:11
got most of it. That that's what set you off. That was my favorite. While some still remains, I'm like, "Oh, okay. So,
00:07:17
you've taken the knife 90% of the way out, but some still remains." Anyways, these people, you texted them.
00:07:24
Immediately they got back to you. I me and then I texted you, but I have been screaming into I have been, you know,
00:07:31
barking at the moon trying to actually go through the, you know, the channels here trying to get anyone's attention.
00:07:37
And in about a hot minute, you got two people who I'm sure are lovely, nice people with good kids who are mandacious
00:07:43
[ __ ] hurting the world. Sorry, Andy. I told you. I'm sure they're lovely
00:07:48
people. Everyone I meet from Facebook is super lovely. What happened? Oh, I haven't texted them back. I'm scared.
00:07:54
Well, did you You're supposed to talk to them on the phone. You're like, I want to talk to you now. And you didn't talk
00:07:59
to them. I got I got distracted last night. I had I stayed up late. I watched last two episodes of Friends and
00:08:04
Neighbors. I'll call them today. All right. You do that. Oh god, there's something, you know, at the very same time something happened with your thing.
00:08:10
Walt couldn't get back into Facebook when he got a new iPhone and they had put him on a security list by accident,
00:08:17
some weird security list. So, I think that didn't get fixed either, but he was a whole lot nicer about the situation
00:08:22
than you were. Well, even even Alphabet has figured out
00:08:27
a way not to have this [ __ ] on their network. They need to fix this. One of the things that I was telling Amanda
00:08:33
about it and I said it she said not everyone knows Cara Swisser or um or if
00:08:39
you fix it for one why can't you fix it for everybody? That shouldn't be the way customer service works. They should take
00:08:44
everything down. There should be no mistakes. It's not in New York Times. It's not in magazines. It's not I know
00:08:50
it's a harder difficult more difficult thing but that's the business you've chosen and therefore you need to keep
00:08:56
your place clean. I see. I don't think it'd be that hard. I think they could so easily upload that video to AI and say
00:09:01
look for the attributes, the sentence structure, the the photo resolution, everything identify this everywhere.
00:09:07
They give these makers a lot of outs like I think it was whatever strikes that they get. Anyway, they did better
00:09:12
fix it, boys, cuz Scott Galloway is they asked me if I'd signed up for face scan or something. I'm like, "No, I don't
00:09:19
even know what you're talking about." They don't do anything like that. Like you remember, you know how Amazon now has a hand scan at Whole Foods and
00:09:25
someone was like, "Would you like to try it?" I said as [ __ ] if I would give my handprint to I'm like no. Although I
00:09:32
do I do I pay a lot of people a lot of money put their hands on me. Okay. All
00:09:38
right. We've got a lot to get to today including Target struggles. Um and open eye making a deal with former Apple
00:09:44
designer Johnny I with a photo that looked like he was marrying Sam Alman. It was a lovely photo. Uh but first,
00:09:51
Elon Musk says he plans to significantly reduce his political spending moving forward, saying in an interview with
00:09:57
Bloomberg at the theQatar Economic Forum, I think I've done enough. I think we all think that this after report over
00:10:04
$290 million in the 2024 election to support Trump and Republicans. He also spent roughly $25 million on that
00:10:11
Wisconsin Supreme Court race that he like [ __ ] the bed. Uh the cheese head hat, the whole thing. He [ __ ] the bed
00:10:18
essentially. Things got a little testy in that same interview when he was asked about Doge saving less than originally promised. The whole thing was faking
00:10:25
testy. What a little baby. What a little wussy baby he is. Okay, let's listen. I want to ask you about the total amount
00:10:30
that you're planning to save through Doge's work. Before the election, you said it was going to be at least two
00:10:37
trillion. The number currently on Doge.gov is $170 billion. That's a big
00:10:45
change. What happened to the two trillion? Or do you expect it to happen immediately? Well, is it going to happen
00:10:52
because do those are supposed to run till next July? I mean, your question is absurd in in this fundamental premise.
00:10:58
Um, are you assuming that that on day, you know, within a few months there's an instant two trillion saved? No, I'm not
00:11:04
at all. I'm just asking is that still your aim then? Is it still your given the amount of time? Have we not made
00:11:11
good progress given the amount of time? That's exactly what I'm asking. So is it still your aim to go from 170 billion to
00:11:19
2 trillion? Um the the ability of Doge to operate is
00:11:26
a function of whether uh the government and this includes Congress uh is willing
00:11:32
to take our advice. Uh we are not the dictators of the government, we are the adviserss. This is such horseshit. He
00:11:39
closed down a ton of stuff. He didn't do well. That's all it is. Just like the cybert truck, this was a flop so far.
00:11:46
Um, and of course, Congress has to pass it, but he ran through in all the government, cutting things, closing
00:11:51
things, firing things. He had plenty of power and he had the the president of the United States behind him. So, he was
00:11:58
running rampant. What happened is he ran rampant. He did stupid things like the chainsaw thing. He pushed around and now
00:12:04
there's story after story coming out about what a [ __ ] nuisance he was to these people. ran over co Congress, ran
00:12:10
over um cabinet members, did stupid things, made idiotic mistakes. He's not
00:12:15
getting to two trillion, and the entire interview was just ridiculous, saying Tesla's doing great. He's just such a
00:12:21
it's such horseshit. This guy is full of horseshit. This was a failure. It was too bad, as we all say, good thing to
00:12:28
cut things. And um he didn't reach his goals. And even the $170 billion is questionable. I'm sure he's cost the the
00:12:35
US taxpayer money, but he got his he got his regulatory relief. He's going to probably be part of that Golden Dome
00:12:40
thing. He will probably benefit in lots of ways with Starlink and everything else. So, let's just say um he got his.
00:12:48
So, one headline described this interview as a billionaire manchild. Elon Musk gives his most petulant interview to date. Uh I think that was
00:12:55
correct. Scott, any quick thoughts and then uh we'll talk about the Tesla part. Well, just some data. This has
00:13:02
backfired. It was initially the best investment anyone had made for a quarter of a billion dollars and sort of the
00:13:07
promotion of Tesla and the belief of the markets that this would pay off because we had gone to a kleptocracy. It's now
00:13:14
the rivers have reversed and the tide has turned entirely against them and this has arguably been one of the
00:13:20
greatest brand destructions and Tesla was a great brand. According to Axio's Harris poll, Tesla has fallen from the
00:13:27
eighth most reputable brand in 2021. I mean that's in the company of you know Amazon and Coke and Apple it's fallen
00:13:35
from 8th to 95th and also we talked a lot about this
00:13:41
their revenue was down 20%. Do you realize Tesla despite the fact it trades at 150 times earnings and most
00:13:46
automobile companies trade at 10. Tesla's sales are declining faster than any automobile company in the world. They declined 20% or profits are down
00:13:54
71. sales. You want to talk about sales declines down 59% yearon year in France,
00:14:00
81% in Sweden, 74% in the Netherlands. It's their salesman cut in half in Switzerland, 33% in Portugal, and their
00:14:07
sales are down by 2/3 in um Denmark. And what what I don't
00:14:14
get is he's such a he is a brilliant guy, but he's alienated his core demographic.
00:14:20
He's alienated the Republicans. They should read the Republicans. He's alienated the wrong people.
00:14:25
3/4 of Republicans would never consider buying an EV. So, he's cozied up to the people who aren't interested in EVs. And
00:14:31
then California, which is the biggest EV market in the US, Tesla sales in the state have dropped almost have dropped
00:14:37
12% and its market share has dropped almost 8%. And and then let's just be clear
00:14:43
about Doge. It's not saving the US money. It's costing money because one of
00:14:48
the recommendations they made was a plan to cut the IRS by 50%. Which would
00:14:55
essentially lead to a $400 billion increase in uncollected taxes. So if you're talking about effect on the
00:15:00
Treasury in our receipts, let's give them the benefit of the doubt and say it is 150 billion. Well, but if you lose
00:15:07
400 billion in uncolcted taxes, that's a quarter of a that's a quarter of a
00:15:12
trillion dollar net loss to the US government. So you're you're down about one and a half or two trillion dollars
00:15:19
over the next 10 years because Doge has emasculated our ability to collect taxes
00:15:25
and the people who know them. And I'm writing a newsletter this week called oligarchs. Trans I think there's this
00:15:31
transnational oligarchy class that's emerging where people get so rich they can afford their own security, their own rights, their only their own family
00:15:38
planning, their own schools, and as a result they have less of a vested interest in the well-being and democracy of their native country. Anyways, and
00:15:45
that the problem is or how this has arisen is the following. And that is what you see in America and this has
00:15:53
happened consistently is that as income inequality has has increased, a smaller
00:15:59
and smaller group of people who are unified in their love of low taxes and getting richer continue to weaponize the
00:16:05
government. And the result is as wealth concentrates, political spending capacity increases which secures policy
00:16:13
outcomes that further concentrate wealth and you enter into a doom loop. The share of wealth of the top.1% since 1980
00:16:20
has tripled their share of wealth. Political spending has increased 17 times in real terms on inflation justice
00:16:28
basis. So that means and what do you know combined corporate and top uh top individual tax rates fell from an
00:16:34
average of 58 to 29%. So as the 0.1% gets wealthier over the last 40% their
00:16:41
effective tax rate has been cut in half. So you see a correlation here and that is unless you step in and redistribute
00:16:48
income from corporations and the 0.1% to the middle class they increasingly and
00:16:53
and I live this firsthand. It's just when you're paid not to understand something, it's really easy to not
00:16:59
understand it. And people can talk about, oh, income inequality, but at the end of the day, they vote for candidates
00:17:05
and give money to candidates who are going to find a way to continue to cut their taxes. We have to have class
00:17:11
traders. We have to have rich people. You know, FDR was a class trader. Truman was a class trader who turn around to
00:17:17
these very rich people in these special interest groups and these lobbyists and say, "No, you're going to hate me. I appreciate all the money you gave to me,
00:17:23
but you're going to hate me. I'm coming for your ass. So, so when when he asked was asked about returning to Tesla and his commitment to the um the company,
00:17:30
Baby Huey attempted his usual brand of awkward comedy. Check it out. Do you see yourself and are you committed to still
00:17:37
being the chief executive of Tesla in 5 years time?
00:17:43
Yes. No doubt about that at all.
00:17:48
Well, no. I might die.
00:17:55
Um, you know, I think one of the things that I don't believe is he will stop his his financial involvement in politics.
00:18:00
Back in March of 20 24, he said he wouldn't be donating to either candidate in the presidential election. I called
00:18:06
that horseshit then very clearly that he was obviously going to back President Trump because it was an existential
00:18:11
crisis for him to be for a Harris presidency. And that's exactly what he did. And he lied about it. He just lied
00:18:17
about it. Um, his posts on X have become less political in recent months. So, Washington Post analysis found under 20%
00:18:23
of his posts are now about Doge or politics. Well, more than half are about tech and his businesses. Um, I this
00:18:30
interview was such a disaster, the reporter was trying her best to try to get an answer out of him. And then in a
00:18:36
separate interview on CNBC, he should just shut up. He also said robo taxes driving around Austin and June and LA
00:18:42
and San Francisco after that. I would not get in a robo taxi because they
00:18:48
haven't had any there. And even one of the the people who was doing this said they were years behind Whimo and I was
00:18:54
reticent. I I I now go in Whimos quite confidently, but I would never get in one of these. Um, and before we move on,
00:19:01
I just want to note that in that CNBC interview, Elon was asked about his plans to combine Tesla and XAI, a
00:19:07
merger. I predicted a few weeks ago he didn't rule it out completely. Let's listen to what he said. It's not out of
00:19:13
the question, but that would have to be something that the Tesla shareholders would vote would want to vote for. So, understood. So, but it's not something
00:19:19
you're thinking about doing. It's it's not currently it's not currently there are no plans to do so, right? It's not
00:19:26
out of the question, but obviously would require Tesla shareholder support. Well, that means yes, obviously. Yeah, I 100%
00:19:33
agree. The the only push back I would give Karen I think some of and I share this bias, but I think I
00:19:40
think your bias is coming out here and that is against Elon, which I share. But one, I do think he should continue to do
00:19:47
interviews. I think he gets so much free attention. He still has a big fan base and just that level of awareness and
00:19:53
free media around Tesla all the time and SpaceX and attention. I do think that is
00:19:58
worth billions of dollars and he should probably continue to do it. Should he be coached a little bit better about things to say? He was coached there when he
00:20:04
said, "Well, shareholders would have to approve it." That's not true. He can muscle around his board, but that was the smart thing to say. The other thing
00:20:11
is I I I disagree. I think a lot of people You may not that you didn't say a lot of people. You said you wouldn't. A lot of people will try self-driving from
00:20:18
Tesla. A lot I don't think they're going to tell you as someone who's ridden in the earliest ones till now. They simply
00:20:25
aren't safe enough. They are not safe. You So I think I agree. So I I I believe
00:20:31
that you wouldn't I think there's a lot of people that will will try an autonomous Tesla. Yeah. I just don't think I listen. and he was saying robo
00:20:37
taxis are coming uh in in by this date and that was eight years ago and it was
00:20:42
a date just he this is just it's Whimo has written circles around him in this
00:20:47
issue and so have others by the way there's some Amazon efforts there's Aurora um everybody has moved forward
00:20:53
here and for him to pretend that they're not extraord It's the same thing with AI like look he was extraordinarily late
00:20:59
with Croc good catchup sort of I guess although the numbers are pretty low um
00:21:04
compared to other things But he just declares thing. It drives me [ __ ] nuts. And it may be bias. I just
00:21:10
wouldn't I don't think he should I think he should go away for a while and keep quiet. That's I I get what you're
00:21:16
saying, but every I think he became a nuisance at the White House and now there's Well, he's out. He's But we
00:21:21
predicted this when and the exact moment was when I saw the whatever it is the head of the province in Ontario said was
00:21:28
he was canceling a SpaceX contract. I'm like, he's out. He'll leave government once he sees that happening. He's out. He's gonna he's going to pull the VC. VC
00:21:35
was fired, but basic he's going to fade to black. And he did at literally from that moment on, he started fading back
00:21:41
into the bushes. And your analysis was the correct one. And that is they don't
00:21:46
want him around, but they're scared of him because of his money and his platform. But he's out. He's gone. This is what he should do. Let me leave on a
00:21:53
positive note here. He should work on his [ __ ] cars and not make shitty cars. And the reason why Tesla is not
00:21:59
doing well is cuz the is an old car that it's a very good car, but it's something that's not a fresh car and the Cybert
00:22:06
truck is a, you know, sorry, that was his midlife crisis, I guess. Not a good
00:22:11
car. He should make good products and roll them out. That's what he should do. That's what he was good at. And now he
00:22:17
all he and he's bad at government. He's bad at a lot of things as he's bad at media. uh he should go back and do the
00:22:24
things he does best, which is be very bold about cutting edge products and then improve Starlink, improve the
00:22:31
Tesla. There's no way he couldn't come back. Tesla couldn't come back from this if they made good cars, but they aren't.
00:22:37
And so he could blame all the protests. He can blame anyone else, but the the responsibility lies with him. Um
00:22:44
speaking about responsibility, we're learning more about former President Joe Biden's prostate cancer diagnosis. Biden
00:22:50
did not receive his diagnosis until last week. And his last known PSA screening, that's what they used to do these, was
00:22:56
in 2014, according to a spokesman. That is an astonishing thing. I cannot believe that. You you had noted this and
00:23:02
I was shocked again when I saw that. That information comes amid ongoing speculation about a possible cover up,
00:23:08
including from President Trump who claims somebody is not telling the facts. He he would know about that.
00:23:14
Medical experts point to guidelines that advise uh against PSA screenings for men over the age of 70. I guess he's the
00:23:22
president though, though some people are raising questions about whether Biden as president should have still been screened, such as you did. You also
00:23:28
spoke with CNN's Jake Tapper on Prof. Jake is the co-author of the new book original sin, President Biden's decline,
00:23:34
its cover up, and his disastrous choice to run again. Uh let's listen to the clip what he talks about what it means
00:23:41
for Democrats. All of Democrats right now are being blamed for the Biden
00:23:48
fiasco. And by that I mean his decision to run for reelection and his decision uh to hide his deterioration. As our
00:23:56
reporting suggests, this was the fault of President Biden, his wife, and his
00:24:02
son, and like a number a few top aids. But this isn't necessarily something
00:24:07
that could be laid on the feet of every single elected Democrat in the country. My personal view is that until the
00:24:13
Democratic party reckons with that, people are going to have a very difficult time trusting them on
00:24:19
anything. So, what do you think about the the screening? And then tell me a little bit about your thoughts here.
00:24:27
Look, so I've tried to be I think like a lot of people during co I decided I was a junior epidemiologist and what I
00:24:33
realized is I had no [ __ ] idea what I was talking about. Yeah. So, when it comes to medical advice, I try to be
00:24:38
more measured. And what I'll say is a citizen who gets regular prostate exams
00:24:44
and even has a regular MRI that looks and images my prostate. And the PSA test
00:24:51
is a blood test. That's it. It costs a hundred bucks. I I it just seems weird to me that this guy wasn't getting the
00:24:58
most robust scans in history and PSA tests all the time as president. your brother immediately reached out to me
00:25:03
and said, "It's not unusual for a man of this age to find out in a screening that it is this advanced." And I I believe
00:25:12
Dr. Jeffrey Swisser, who spent a decade of his life studying these issues over my instincts. Having said that, I I I
00:25:20
still think this is just incredibly odd. And we don't there's so much
00:25:26
understandable and deserved affection and goodwill towards Joe Biden right now. But this is the reality. He has
00:25:32
ruined his legacy. This is what he'll be remembered for. He'll be remembered for the guy who [ __ ] up and got an
00:25:39
insurrectionist elected. This is this is the fine point on his career. That will
00:25:44
be the thing that he was known for a year public service. He stopped him and then he got him elected, right? He stopped him initially and he would have
00:25:51
gone out a hero. This was such incredibly poor judgment and it brings up two issues around how we move
00:25:58
forward. The first is, and we talked about this last week, we need if we're going to have age limits on the lower end, we need them on the upper end. And
00:26:04
two, the Democratic Party needs to recognize that one of the greatest tools
00:26:10
we have in history in terms of our democracy is the primary process. The
00:26:16
primary process is such full body contact violence and incredible competition that it matures not only the
00:26:23
right person, but the right person for the moment. No one had heard of Barack Obama. No one had heard of Bill Clinton.
00:26:28
No party, no the the Democratic party wasn't going to pick either of those people. But you know what? They just
00:26:34
rose every week and did the work and America fell in love with them. So when the Democratic party tries to clear
00:26:40
Bernie Sanders out of the way for Secretary Clinton or or or Barack try,
00:26:45
you have to let let our primary process run. And the fact, in my opinion,
00:26:52
another mistake they made in addition to this consensual hallucination we all entered in with each other is that I
00:26:57
think they should have had a super Shark Tank like mini primary rather than just anointing Vice President Harris. I think
00:27:04
they could have made it we and and I want to be clear. I don't think we're I don't think we're guilty of Monday morning quarterbacking. I was Saturday
00:27:10
afternoon quarterbacking. I said have a mini Shark Tank like primary with the
00:27:17
best eight candidates go from two debates with eight then to four then to two. It would have dominated the media
00:27:24
cycle. And by the way, Trump was dominating it because they were afraid to let Joe out of the basement, right?
00:27:31
We would have Democrats would have dominated and and who knows, maybe it would have been Vice President Harris that would have matured. I don't think
00:27:36
she would have she needed more time. Well, the bottom line is we don't want to acknowledge this. She's not a great
00:27:43
candidate. I think she did a good job given the hand she was dealt with, but this is a candidate who didn't make it to Iowa four years earlier, which says
00:27:51
to me America didn't think of her as a great candidate. I thought he did a lot better. The first 60 days I thought were
00:27:57
terrific. I thought, look, I I I think given the hand she was dealt, Vice President Harris, first off, I think one
00:28:04
of the great performances in political history was her debate. I I think the amount of pressure that she must have
00:28:10
felt and for her to show up and be that composed, that articulate, that that deaf, practicing with two screens, I
00:28:17
thought that was one of the great performances in political history. The reality is she was not a strong candidate and and President Biden and
00:28:25
his family's narcissism have severely [ __ ] this country. Severely. And that is his legacy. And we want to have and
00:28:32
we'll get [ __ ] for this because people are correctly feeling empathy for him. But his legacy in my view has been
00:28:38
ruined by this. Can I bring that up because I gotta tell you it continues. We were pretty outspoken. You first and
00:28:44
then I you convinced me um of of of his need to step down at the time and we got
00:28:52
so much endless. You remember how much endless [ __ ] we got? It's driving me nuts. I have blocked so many people on
00:28:57
all the social networks because they just can't they they do have a derangement syndrome. I was like, you
00:29:03
can't say to yourself what a [ __ ] this was because, you know, because it's not
00:29:08
the point. I think we should move on. By the way, I think we've got to move on quickly and there's lots of ways to do
00:29:13
that. We made a mistake. We needed to do this. We're going to do things differently. We're so sorry. Please
00:29:20
trust us again. And here's how you can trust us by doing, as you said, a robust primary. Correct. We're going here's
00:29:26
some answers from us. Here's what we're going to do. this guy and also saying
00:29:32
out loud, "Joe Joe Biden betrayed us." Right. Right. Just say it. Sorry, he's sick, but this is the way it is. He's
00:29:38
He's done that. Betrayal is a strong word. He screwed up and we went along. He screwed up. Okay. He screwed up and we went, "Okay, betrayed is not the
00:29:44
right word." Right. Okay. But that said, like, stop it you people. Like you you yelled at us when we said, which which
00:29:50
would have been a much better outcome. Especially you, Scott. You were really out on that limb. And I'm not giving you
00:29:57
credit. It's just you were right. And um and and and now to like do the same
00:30:02
thing cuz you're obsessed. We can't we it's the same problem we had. We can't say anything cuz because Trump Yes, we
00:30:09
can say things. Look at the [ __ ] Tapper's getting right now. People are so angry at him. People are so angry. By
00:30:15
the way, just I I we should point out or try and use this for some good about the importance of a prostate exam. And you
00:30:21
know, you know how you can tell or how I can tell it's going to be a really great prostate exam?
00:30:30
Ask me how how I feel two hands on my shoulders. Oh my god. By the way, if
00:30:37
Patrick comes over and gives me an inhome prostate exam, I think I should be reimbured by my insurance. Okay.
00:30:43
Okay. I think um getting back to Tapper, the other thing is I still I've just gotten several of these new these books
00:30:50
on the presidential race and stuff like that and I do have to say there's a lot of news in a lot of these. they're all
00:30:56
under embargo and stuff, but sometimes you feel like maybe you should have said it at the time, like, you know, when
00:31:03
reporters have to do, and here's where I do think the media is culpable. I think a lot more reporters knew about this,
00:31:09
and several did some great pieces um talking about this, but they got relentlessly pummeled when they did. Um,
00:31:16
and you were called an ist the moment you said it. You were called, no one wants to be called anist and no one
00:31:21
wants to be called a sexist or raist aegist, but immediately you were called you were uh you were called an agist
00:31:27
right away. Oh, you're an aist. You don't think you don't think you but reporters got the pressure and in that way they really have to just push back
00:31:34
and and keep going. And they're not a they're not a creature of Trump if they the guy was the president and they
00:31:40
should have done a good job covering him despite the fears of Trump. And that's the that's just the way it's got to be.
00:31:45
I'm sorry. There's no by all means necessary is not the way the Democrats could construct themselves. Anyway,
00:31:51
let's go on a quick break. When we come back, the bond market gets a little yippy again. Scott, we're back.
00:31:57
Republicans in the US House of Representatives passed President Trump's big, beautiful tax bill on Thursday morning with a 215 to 214 vote. I mean,
00:32:06
it was one one person. The stock slid this week with the Dow dropping over 800 points on Wednesday as bond yields
00:32:12
spiked following a weak auction of the 20-year Treasury bonds and concerns about the budget bill. I mean, this is
00:32:17
just what you're talking about, selling out the the poor to feed the rich. The 10-year and 30-year bond yields also
00:32:24
jumped sharply, a very disturbing indicator and 30-year rising above 5% to its highest level since October 2023.
00:32:31
The sell-off isn't just a US story. Bond yields are rising globally, too, with Japan and the UK seeking similar moves.
00:32:37
The bond market got yippy back in April, as Trump put it, which led him to pause the tariffs. Um, I'd like you to explain
00:32:45
what's going on uh without a penis joke and as pathy as you can be here for the people who don't understand it. Well,
00:32:52
look, this is and several nonpartisan economic think tanks have
00:32:57
said that this this tax bill is the greatest transfer of
00:33:04
capital and you know money from poor to rich in history.
00:33:09
and adding 5 trillion to the debt which will increase interest rates for everybody and young people is basically
00:33:16
a deferred tax on young people such that uh it's very simple to understand this
00:33:21
tax cut the top 5% are getting a tax cut the bottom 95% are getting a tax
00:33:28
increase and I was hopeful that this thing was going to be rejected I thought the arguments were just so insane and
00:33:34
cruel that they weren't going deep enough in the cuts but effectively Uh I
00:33:39
was with Anthony Scaramucci last night who I just continue to be so impressed with. I think he's so thoughtful. And he brought up something so interesting. He
00:33:45
said, "Look, you had effectively you had Republicans were fiscal budget hawks.
00:33:52
They were very concerned about the deficit." And Clinton, who was a moderate, figured out a way to have a
00:33:58
surplus. and Al Gore said with my economic plan over the next 8 to 10
00:34:05
years we're going to have $4 to5 trillion in surpluses. Bush won and that was really
00:34:11
the pivot point because what Bush did was the following. He convinced he decided and the American public has
00:34:17
gotten used to this. He decided we can have our cake and eat it too. And what he did was he decided to go to war and
00:34:23
lower taxes at the same time. And nothing really happened in the short term to the markets because we have
00:34:28
built up so much uh borrowing capacity because of the responsible fiscal approach of our predecessors. And the
00:34:35
result is when we decided during uh uh W's administration that we could cut
00:34:43
taxes and spend more, we began uh essentially a downward spiral of
00:34:49
fiscal irresponsibility that Democrats and Republicans have both taken a play from. that the haunting or the negative
00:34:55
impact of deficits don't come to fruition during my administration. So whatever, I'm just going to keep
00:35:01
everybody happy. I'm going to the far left and the far right meet around. I know let's cut taxes and I know let's
00:35:07
increase social spending. By the way, government expenditures are up $200 billion since Trump took office compared
00:35:13
to last year. And also Biden despite railing against the billionaire class
00:35:18
not paying enough taxes during the Biden administration taxes went down. So this
00:35:23
is a continuation of the same irresponsible fiscal behavior but this is a focus and this kind of embodies
00:35:30
what America has become about and that is the bottom 95% are here to optimize
00:35:35
the lifestyle and economics of the top 5%. And one of the reasons we do this is because the Republicans are very good at
00:35:43
representing the top 5% and convincing the top 50 that they'll be there. That Americans are so optimistic. They
00:35:48
believe at some point they might be in the top 5%. And because Democrats quite frankly just don't want to be serious
00:35:55
about about neither side want to be serious about either raising taxes or
00:36:00
cutting spending. And neither is willing to have a serious conversation. the de best the Democrats will do will say at
00:36:06
some point when I interviewed leader leader Jeff um uh with Jess he said well
00:36:12
at some point we should probably have that conversation but no Democrat will stand up and say we probably need to means test social security the only
00:36:19
person I found who's being kind of responsible is Senator Chris Murphy he's actually naming programs we should we
00:36:26
need to take a hard look at but just this is a transfer of wealth explain what the bond market's saying very
00:36:31
quickly oh the bond market is saying that this irresponsible fiscal behavior
00:36:36
makes that means that lending money to US companies and to the US government is
00:36:42
now riskier meaning that you need to get paid more to take that risk right and effectively what you have is um the bond
00:36:50
you the 30 years Treasury is at 5.09% 09% and that's the greatest or the highest it's been since October 23. And
00:36:56
this impacts this means you're paying more for your student loans, your credit cards, your mortgages, and companies are
00:37:03
less inclined to borrow money to grow because it's more expensive. In other words, everything everywhere gets a little bit more expensive. Now, that's
00:37:10
okay if you're the 5% getting a huge tax credit because I don't have student loans. my mortgage if it goes up 25 bips
00:37:18
that still will be overcompensated by the tax cut that I will get. But the bottom 95% see their taxes go up and see
00:37:27
an increase in costs across their debt instruments and their kids are really
00:37:32
going to have a tough time because essentially have you know the the government the fastest growing expense
00:37:38
line in the government budget right now is the interest on our debt. It's not investing in infrastructure. It's not
00:37:45
social services to keep seniors out of poverty. It's so we're moving towards
00:37:50
and this is how nations fail. Nations don't fail because they get invaded. They fail because they go broke. Go
00:37:56
broke. That's what we're doing. And we're not creating the economic opportunity because we have we're paying
00:38:02
interest rates. That's it's usery against ourselves which is really astonishing. Anyway, we'll see what goes
00:38:09
on. They're going to pass it. But that was a tight vote. You know, again, I have to insult all the congressional Republicans who pretend they're hawks.
00:38:16
[ __ ] you for voting for this. Like, if you really cared, you would do something not like this, but you did it anyway. I
00:38:22
don't know what deal you got or whatever promise, but it's all nonsense if you don't stick to your guns on this stuff.
00:38:28
Um, iPhone designer Johnny IV and his design firm are taking over creative
00:38:34
design at OpenAI. This is an interesting story. Speaking of expansion, to develop consumer devices and other products,
00:38:40
eyes Ives design firm and OpenAI uh CEO Sam Alton have reportedly been working
00:38:45
on a device that moves beyond screens including headphones and other devices with cameras. IV will also work on
00:38:51
future versions of chat GBT audio features in its OpenAI's app. Iive also leads IO, a company founded to design
00:38:59
and develop a new family of AI products. Open will require IO in an all equity
00:39:04
deal valued at $6.5 billion. So here we are. We have Johnny IV coming back, the
00:39:10
obviously famous iPhone guy, um, aluminium. Um, I just want to note I
00:39:16
spoke to IV at code in 2022. He was on a panel about Steve Jobs with Lorraine
00:39:21
Powell Jobs and Tim Cook. It was the last code session ever. I was because Jobs was the first one. Um, I asked him
00:39:28
about intentionality and responsibility when designing tech products. Let's take a listen. There will always be
00:39:34
unintended consequences. Some of them um, wonderful and some of them not
00:39:40
wonderful. And and I think the issue is is just how you know your your decision in terms of what responsibility you need
00:39:48
to shoulder. I think the more powerful I mean there's wonderful historic um precedent
00:39:54
for powerful tools um having that you know that um ability to be used in both
00:40:01
ways. Um but I think it it's you know the consequences in the end of the day I I
00:40:07
think it comes down to how you view your responsibility. Yeah. He's a very articulate person about design. He also
00:40:14
insulted the current the the there was humane pin a couple of pins he thought they sucked. Um but is it too early in
00:40:21
the process here at open a they're clearly as you noted going consumer if they're bringing in Johnny IV and I will
00:40:26
note Iive and Alman are very close friends and again the picture they took together was really kind of odd and
00:40:32
interesting looked like they were it was like an engagement photo in the New York Times. What do you think about this?
00:40:38
Well, it is a big moment in business history because this is now the most expensive aqua hire of all time. Yeah.
00:40:44
At six and a half billion dollars and at just 55 employees, that's 120 million
00:40:49
per employee. Yeah. Actually, no. The biggest number three was Instagram. I think it was 20 people billion. So 50
00:40:57
million. This is now I was wrong. This is now number two at 120 million per employee. Number one was Meta's
00:41:04
acquisition of WhatsApp, which was purchased for over $300 million per employee, but this was an aqua hire.
00:41:12
They're getting stock. I don't think they're getting cash, but even if it gets cut in half or by 75%, I I think
00:41:18
OpenAI is dramatically overvalued right now. But this is an aqua hire. And I can
00:41:24
see why the justification is they got they got a lot of press, a lot of awareness today. Quite frankly, this
00:41:31
isn't as big a story as Google's uh announcement of some of their AI products yesterday. Open AAI stepped on
00:41:38
it. Basically, it took the oxygen out of the room. I don't know if they planted, but was quite brilliant. As soon as
00:41:44
Google came out with this, they came out with this this love picture of them. And Johnny is a very compelling, charismatic
00:41:51
guy, and they stepped all over Alphabex's big announcement, which by the way is a lot more meaningful in
00:41:57
terms of a jobs move. That was a jobs move. Yeah, they stepped on it. They basically they basically said now back
00:42:02
back of the bus. Um, in terms of your story, uh, it look good for Johnny Ivy.
00:42:08
He's a he's a visionary. This is them saying that if we can come up with a better user interface or some sort of
00:42:13
hardware product, it signals to the market that they're more leadership. Is it worth $6.5 billion? That's a 2%
00:42:20
dilution at a $340 billion. I mean, that's real
00:42:25
freaking delilution. But if it gets them awareness and they can end up having a cleaner user interface on their search
00:42:33
or whatever product, you know, good for them. So look, I I think it was a risk.
00:42:38
The consumer the consu because they're obviously leaning in Johnny IV is the probably the greatest designer in
00:42:44
consumer technology history, right? One of them. I mean, possibly the one. Um,
00:42:50
and so this is the idea of how do you make AI useful, right? And so a lot of it is very cluji how you use AI and
00:42:57
those pins were just ridiculous. We made fun of them. Um but there has to be some way because I have to say I've been
00:43:03
noticing I mean you use AI all the time. I'm really using it. I don't use Google search anymore. I use chat GPT like for
00:43:11
all and they're they're better answers. They really are. I and I I I I'd like a little more information about the
00:43:17
provenence of the information I'm getting sometimes. Um, but I feel pretty good about it's getting better and
00:43:23
better that's for sure. But how it integrates into interestingly my Apple things are
00:43:29
getting useful when in my messages suddenly it said your Amazon package is is at your doorstep and it never did
00:43:36
that before. It's insert AI is definitely inserting itself trying to coordinate all my apps at this point um
00:43:43
in a way that's much more actually useful. But do you think that they're going full consumer here and they're
00:43:48
hitting at phone makers? They're hitting at search, they're hitting at, you know,
00:43:54
travel agencies, they're hitting at libraries. I mean, how do you look at this? I I mean, you could see an AI
00:44:01
phone and and Johnny I is one of probably the three or five one of the
00:44:07
three or five greatest consumer designers. I mean, I'll list off some others. Charles and Ray Emmes, the
00:44:12
furniture guys. Dieter Rams, uh, who was kind of the original consumer design
00:44:18
company, I think was Brawn. They said that, you know, this stuff can be more interesting and not just functional and
00:44:24
ugly and look like Soviets designed it. James Dyson, I think, would have to be up there. Um, a guy named Achilles
00:44:31
Castigle who was known for furniture and lighting. If you, you know, I love furniture and I think some of the more
00:44:36
interesting design and consumer has actually been in furniture of all places. But anyways, he's he's right up
00:44:42
there. I can see I can see an AI phone. I there's something about when you get a
00:44:49
physical product that creates I was having lunch with uh Jordan Harbinger who's this kid.
00:44:57
He's a great podcaster. I just like him. I think he's a really decent young man, 40 years old, young kids. and and I said
00:45:05
my advice to him was you need to write a book because uh something you can hold in your hands. It takes the podcaster
00:45:13
and makes it gives you a level of heft and gravitas. I kind of feel the same
00:45:18
about a physical product for these digital only companies that if Google can put out an interesting laptop or a
00:45:25
good phone and the Pixel phone while it hasn't really got any traction is a great phone. It gives you a certain
00:45:30
level of I don't know heft gravitas that it takes you I mean for God's sakes Meta
00:45:37
has been trying to figure it out. They might have it with their AR AR uh Ray-B band glasses actually. Ray-B band glasses. Yeah. But there's just a
00:45:44
certain affinity or affection or gravitas you get when you have something people can hold in their hands. Yeah. Or
00:45:50
marvel at its beauty because you are limited in terms of what you can do in a digital interface. You know what I was
00:45:55
thinking? My iPhone suddenly feels older, too old. like it's something else
00:46:00
has to come and I for the first time when I read this even though IV has sort of been through many cycles and he's
00:46:06
sort of at the end of a very long and illustrious career I think he's got one more in him and like it's it there
00:46:14
someone could supplant Apple someone could you that's what I thought of when I heard this will you know it'll happen
00:46:20
at some point yes I know but someone will this I never thought that that it was I thought someone of course will but
00:46:26
now I'm like oh I can see it I can see them making something I would buy. Anyway, we'll see. So, I I was I'm an
00:46:33
investor and was on the board for a couple years in a company called Ledger, which is a kind of the premier hardware wallet for crypto. Yeah. They're in a
00:46:39
little trouble because of some security issues, but go ahead. Uh yeah, actually I think well I it's still known as it's
00:46:46
it's still known as a secure story. It's like 13% of all crypto stored on these devices. Company's doing really well. I
00:46:52
I I see I see the numbers. But anyways, I left the board mostly cuz I hate crypto and I [ __ ] post it everywhere.
00:46:58
So, I wasn't a good fit for that board, but uh you know who took my spot is Tony
00:47:03
Fidel uh because the company realized he's been very involved in the design and one of the things that that Ledger
00:47:10
Nanos do have on the competition is they just kind of feel better in your hand. They look cooler. And so they realized
00:47:16
that the guy who, you know, the guy who was involved in the iPod and I think he
00:47:23
was involved in Nest that it makes sense. These people top-end designers are rock stars and they can have a
00:47:29
material impact on the perception. And when you have a tech company with people
00:47:34
who brighten up a room by leaving it, having some of that sex appeal in in beautiful
00:47:40
things, you know, I just I think, as I just talked process this, it probably is
00:47:47
worth the 2% dilution when this company's trading at three. You know,
00:47:53
OpenAI needs to maintain a lot of momentum and constantly be in the news to justify a third of a trillion dollar
00:47:59
valuation right now. Yeah, it's a beautiful thing. It's a it's a be I have one. It's gorgeous. And Tony is really great. The other one would be Eve Bahar.
00:48:05
There's a couple. Um but and then uh Susan K who designed all the original
00:48:11
stuff for Apple. All the iconic or iconic stuff for Apple. She did all the Anyway, she there's a couple of really
00:48:18
well-known tech designers and I was at the very top of that pile. In any case, all right, Scott, let's go on a quick
00:48:24
break. We come back, Google introduces AI mode. Scott, we're back. Google has
00:48:29
announced it will roll out its AI mode. The sounds so scary. A new search feature which will function like a
00:48:35
chatbot to all users in the US. The feature will include personalized and automated email replies, can
00:48:41
automatically purchase items when they're on sale and with a new addition uh can click around the web for you for
00:48:48
you like to book travel. This is the idea behind all this stuff. For now, AI mode will just appear as an option
00:48:54
inside of Google search. However, the group of the biggest news published in the US expressed disapproval in a
00:48:59
statement on Wednesday, saying the new feature deprivives publishers of traffic and revenue. No [ __ ] An internal
00:49:04
document disclosing Google's antitrust trial this week revealed that the company decided against making publishers asking publishers for
00:49:11
permission to have their work featured in AI search features. Uh talk a little bit AI mode. I mean, again, they've got
00:49:17
to um uh they've got to uh this is they've got to fight back because they sort of are have the pole position being
00:49:24
the leader in search. they should be dominating this and they're certainly not. Um although there they've certainly
00:49:29
got a lot of power. So talk about would you use AI mode to replace your other apps? I find myself using Google a lot
00:49:36
less than a lot more in my experience and I'm shifting over to chat GBT and
00:49:42
whatever's on Apple and I I guess I'm I'm just about to shift from Google Maps
00:49:47
to a to Apple Maps because they've gotten as good for example. So thoughts?
00:49:52
Well, the metaphor I use is that Google is big box everything at the lowest
00:49:57
price, but there's some decision calorie expenditure. You have to decide which which of the 45 brands of peanut butter
00:50:04
you want. Whereas AI is specially retail and says
00:50:09
we're not going to give you an every answer. We're just going to give you the three best toasters or the one best and that's specialally retail. I think
00:50:15
there's room for both, but specialty retail took market capitalization away from big box, and I think that's going
00:50:20
to happen here. Having said that, I actually like the chat-like interface
00:50:26
with Google search. I use it. I find it's now at the top. They're integrating into search and they're saying, "Look,
00:50:31
if you want to go down the aisle and pick out which of the 100 toasters is fine, but we're doing like similar to
00:50:37
what AI does, we're trying to at least start with what we think is the best toaster or the best answer." I also one
00:50:43
of my predictions in October for 2025 was I called it the empire strikes back. I think I think Alphabet is about to
00:50:51
strike back and I think still the largest concentration of IQ and even IQ
00:50:57
related to AI is in fact at Alphabet and also the scale they have
00:51:03
is the scale they have. So just just one piece of data here, there are 373 times
00:51:10
more queries on Google than on OpenAI right now. Now granted, their search has declined, but I still think that
00:51:17
Alphabet with their I their IP, their IQ, their capital, and the interface they have is still I just I think it
00:51:25
would be very dangerous to count Alphabet out. And I believe that
00:51:32
Alphabet's market cap will go up and I think Open AAIS is going to go down. And when I saw that product release
00:51:38
yesterday of the different things, their you know their AI mode, the chat-like interface,
00:51:44
um I think that I I thought I I was blown away by that that those product
00:51:49
releases yesterday. I think it's really incredible what they're doing. So did they not get stepped on? How do you look
00:51:55
at that? Oh, from a PR standpoint, they lost. Yeah. Okay. I mean, one guy, Johnny IV, and a $6 half billion
00:52:02
acquisition is the bigger news today. They released so much stuff that I think a lot of the stuff kind of stepped on
00:52:08
each other. I would have pasted it out uh and had a series of product releases. But some of the things like basically
00:52:14
putting a movie studio on your phone, some of the the the stuff that feels like midjourney but better, it just some
00:52:21
of the stuff they announced yesterday, I felt like I needed a few hours to really digest and understand, but I just got
00:52:27
the sense they have all of a sudden that they got the memo that they're behind
00:52:32
and they need to catch up. And I think the distance between that they're lagging open AI substantially narrowed
00:52:39
yesterday is how I I did you see it and what did you think about it? I think OpenA's principal competitor is Google.
00:52:46
That's it. That's it. I I don't Meta from the outside with the open stuff and they'll certainly a player, but if I had
00:52:51
the top three or those three absolutely um I did see it and I do use I I think what I like about Google search and I
00:52:58
still I still use it. I'm just using it less just slightly less. I can I want I feel my patterns, right? Because I went
00:53:04
Google was the go-to period and now it's not the go-to period. Um, but I do like when you search for something, the
00:53:10
questions they add like like it it anticipates your next question of why
00:53:17
this is this um and why this is this. And so I like that. I think I think search is a lot more use searchable and
00:53:24
useful. And I never go down below the first 6 in right of the whole thing. I
00:53:30
they usually get my answer to me pretty quickly. Um and so that's that's great
00:53:35
except for everyone else below the line, right? Um they are deploying it well. I
00:53:40
they still still have a problem with design. You know, I I always thought this was apples to lose in terms of
00:53:46
delivering. I Apple I don't think is doing anything that's really fantastic in terms of AI deployed to help me
00:53:53
through my day. Uh I think Chappie GPT is much more helpful. Um, and and I
00:53:59
think they're cluji, too. I think they're all cluji. So, we'll see. I think obviously Google's I think you're absolutely right. It's the Empire
00:54:05
Strikes Back and they have to and so they have to get more dynamic, I suspect. Anyway, um, let's move on to
00:54:11
the last thing. Democrats still wanted Joe Rogan. Scott, uh, since their loss in November, donor retreats and pitch
00:54:17
documents have been full of asks for rich backers to contribute to the party's efforts to develop an army of influencers. efforts include American
00:54:24
Bridge, one of the largest democratic donor networks, which has launched a plan for a nonprofit called Achieve
00:54:29
Narrative Dominance and aims to have a budget of over $70 million, Project Echo, a new 4-year, $52 million
00:54:37
influencer program from the progressive nonprofit American Way, and several other smaller projects looking to
00:54:44
amplify left-leaning influencers. Um, I'm just looking at the top charts. I'm just using podcast because there's lots
00:54:49
of ways to influence on all all the different platforms, but actually Joe Rogan's dropped rather considerably.
00:54:56
He's now down at six. Um I think leftwing ones or left or softer ones are
00:55:01
near the top. A good hang with Amy Polar is really burning the charts these days. The Daily is still up there. Obviously
00:55:08
Megan Kelly's still up there, but I got to say a lot it's it's not so much a right dominated um uh thing. T Tucker
00:55:16
Carlson's up near the top and but so is Michelle Obama right next to him. Midas touch is right there. Um along with um
00:55:24
things like Diary of a CEO, you know, more or the crime ones, they're up to the top. So, you know, I feel like um
00:55:31
it's a mixed bag these days on a lot of these shows. Um I don't know. What do you think? Should they try to do this?
00:55:37
It seems kind of silly. It's sort of like making fetch happen. Yeah, I I do
00:55:43
think they dominate. There's been some. So I think that first off Pivot is 76
00:55:49
just so you know in the world. What is Pivot? Pivot. We're 76 in the world. Yeah. Yeah. Top 100. We're in the top
00:55:55
100. Watch out. 75. Um the but also higher than Charlie Kirk. So well here's
00:56:02
the thing. When you're a Democratic, we're you know we're seen as center left to crazy left. I won't say who's who.
00:56:08
Um, but we have I like to use I'm a San Francisco lesbian. Anyways, the um Prop
00:56:17
is 87. I'm just sorry. Go ahead. What's Pivot? Uh, Pivot is 76 and Prop is 8. I
00:56:24
love that you threw that in. Oh my god, that's such a Caris Fisher thing. Oh, by the way, saying uh or higher than allin
00:56:30
two bad boys, the BFFs or whatever you call but we get I mean in terms of I'm focused on money versus rankings. The
00:56:37
Democratic podcasts get a much higher CPM because the bottom line is Democrats listening to podcasts have more money
00:56:43
than some of the Republicans listening to these podcasts. The I do still think
00:56:48
they dominate. Occasionally stuff is breaking through like the Mightest Touch came out of nowhere into the top five,
00:56:54
but a lot of the top podcasts like Steven Bartlett is pretty much middle of
00:56:59
the road. He tries to be apolitical. I think he's going to replace Joe Rogan. And I'm I Joe Rogan. I I kind of feel
00:57:06
like we should all send Joe a royalty because he kind of busted open the medium. I still think he's number one on
00:57:12
most accounts if you really are honest over the medium and long term. Mel Robbins who's broken through, but she's
00:57:19
not she's not political. Um and but there's Megan does a great job in
00:57:25
podcast in terms of her viewership. Tucker's right at the top. It still pretty is it still really is very right.
00:57:32
Now, what the Republican party does really well is the synchronicity between
00:57:37
the think tanks, their media, their podcasters, and their candidates. The Democrats war within each other. I mean,
00:57:43
if you think about even there were four parties uh just a few years ago. There
00:57:49
was the kind of George Bush, Mitt Romney Republicans, and MAGA. And then there's
00:57:54
the Bernie AOC side of the Democratic party and kind of the more moderate side. The right has consolidated around
00:58:01
MAGA. The Romney, McCain, Bush Republicans are gone. They've been cast into the wilderness. And to a certain
00:58:06
extent, that's an advantage because they're all on the same page from a messaging standpoint. And I'll speak to the same talking points. I don't think
00:58:12
it's good for America. Whereas the Democrats, we're still waring with each other. We're still saying, "Oh, you're my ally, but I don't like the way you're
00:58:18
holding the gun." And we're spending a lot of time, you know, getting angry at Jake Tapper as opposed to saying, "Okay,
00:58:24
let's focus on the fact that the biggest grip in history is taking place." So,
00:58:29
what I've thought about doing and I've talked to some podcasters about is is as
00:58:34
we go into 26, I want to be more coordinated around organizing with other
00:58:40
kind of what I'll call like-minded podcasts because I do think podcasts are increasing their influence. And I've
00:58:46
said that I think our revenues are in podcasting are going to grow dramatically because I think political candidates are going to start transferring money from local news
00:58:52
stations to podcasts based on Trump's genius move to go right into podcasting.
00:58:58
But I think the left needs to be much more organized. Yes, this is what I talked to you about this idea of creating a consolidated about six months
00:59:05
ago this idea of bringing us all together um where we trade podcasts. The right does this beautifully. Promote
00:59:11
each other. Highlight great candidates, right? Maybe maybe even circulate certain data that's super interesting
00:59:17
that people aren't focused on, but everyone I'd like to see everyone from kind of the the smartless guys to
00:59:23
crooked media. You know, those guys are so smart. Yeah. Let's just be a little bit more, you know, I don't think we
00:59:30
were. The problem is I don't think the left moves in lock step in the same way. They are exactly the house organs,
00:59:36
right? And so when I was I was talking to some rich people into doing this about six months ago, this idea, but
00:59:42
it's really hard. What you have to do is more push each other. You know, I we've had I've had Julie Louise Drifus and our
00:59:48
thing we're going to do we're going to do some things with Crooked I hope. um where we trade and push each other. It
00:59:54
the problem is we don't coordinate with the Trump administration or whoever the Democrat in our case whoever the
01:00:01
Democratic administ we're not going to go all right Pete what do you want us to do today the way the Trump people do
01:00:07
with an autotocracy is very efficient. Yeah, it is. And I I think that there's
01:00:13
a certain I think there's a certain elegance to once you get I think our
01:00:19
messaging has to be more on point and more coordinated and we have to do a better job of building each other up and
01:00:24
and highlighting Richie Torres or Wes Moore or Josh Shapiro or Gretchen Whitmer or whoever it is and start and
01:00:32
also highlighting the fact that okay while you were sleeping you know there was a million
01:00:37
and a half dollar per day. I mean, just some of the grift that we're constantly seeing. Yeah. Um and just you did very
01:00:44
one of our most popular social things was Scott listing um all the grift like
01:00:50
in the list. It was really po just to bring there's all sorts of great talking points. He did a trip to the Middle
01:00:55
East. But the two biggest economies in the Middle East or the three biggest are
01:01:00
Turkey, Israel or Turkey, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Israel. and he avoided Turkey and Israel cuz they're
01:01:07
democracies and they wouldn't figure they could not give him Grift. Even Turkey couldn't give him a 747. There's
01:01:14
no [ __ ] way Israel would bribe him or his sons. So he skipped those countries. He went to the countries where the the
01:01:22
supreme ruler was willing to give them a 4 a billion dollar golf course, a
01:01:28
multi00 million Trump Tower or a 747. That's what he picked up in those three countries. You know what he would have
01:01:34
picked up in Israel? He would have picked up a trip to the border and and and he's not he's of of the Gaza border,
01:01:40
which he's not interested in. He's actually not interested in actual defense, right? Or saving those anybody
01:01:45
there. Um or settling anything there. Um one of the things that was pretty heinous yesterday, it was it was a joke
01:01:51
as you're noting this, the head of South Africa uh made a joke, I I don't have a plane to give you. And then Trump goes,
01:01:57
well, I'd take it if you did. Um, and by the way, that was he was spewing right-wing conspiracy stuff that there's
01:02:03
a genocide against the country. It was for Congo. Even his conspiracy theories
01:02:09
were inaccurate. Like it was just full of nonsense. That was a white. And by the way, guess who I blame for that?
01:02:15
Some a famous South African who was one of his adviserss. Oh, there you go. Um, but anyway, you're right. You're
01:02:20
absolutely right. I don't think we have to create a Joe Rogan. There's that's not what we want. I mean, you could say John Stewart sometimes or John Oliver
01:02:27
there. They're all over the place. We have to create to me a a 360 on every
01:02:33
single social platform where we're not necessarily coordinating. I think you can't make fetch happen with the left.
01:02:40
You can't. But we're really giving messages that and and drilling in as Scott said on grift on give messages of
01:02:47
hope and give messages of these guys are crooks over and over and over again. But coordination is not really a left thing
01:02:53
to do. But the the way I presented it to the people I'm speaking to is that really good CMOs, bad CMOs get a
01:03:01
directive from from the CEO and take budget from the brands and then impose a
01:03:07
series of guidelines around I want this type of advertising for this brand and ultimately they get fired because all the powers with the people making the
01:03:13
money at the individual brands. They start to present the CMO and he or she gets fired. Good CMOS become a center of
01:03:20
excellence in basically shared services where they say I've done a bunch of work on media effectiveness and if any of the
01:03:26
brands want to come to me I will provide you with this data. I think we need to be we need a group of people that says
01:03:32
we have some amazing candidates that are available for interviews up to you. Here they are and we can make it seamless and
01:03:38
easy for you. Every day we're going to send out a series of talking points and data that you may choose or may not
01:03:43
choose to highlight in your stories. By the way, Smartless Pivot would like to
01:03:49
promote you and promote certain episodes. Would you be interested in a reciprocal deal to promote them? And we're also going to promote the Midas
01:03:54
touch. Would you like to be part optin? Would you like to be part of a consortium that helps build each other's
01:03:59
audience? So share almost like just a shared services where it becomes a pull as opposed to a push. But us lecturing
01:04:05
at them saying, "Oh, you need to highlight this or talk this way." These people are going to stick up the middle finger. These people have their own
01:04:11
businesses to run. That's the problem. That's the problem. Um, all right. One more quick break and we'll be back for
01:04:17
predictions. Okay, Scott, let's hear a prediction. My prediction is that um this goes back
01:04:26
to a prediction I made in October of last year and my prediction is the Empire Strikes Back. And I I just want
01:04:31
to be clear, my financial advice to anyone, especially a young person, is hope you go double platinum or sell your
01:04:38
company, but just in case you don't, save 3 to 5% of your salary in a tax advantage vehicle in lowcost diversified
01:04:45
index funds, not only in the US, but across the world. And by the time you're my age, even if you haven't gone double
01:04:51
platinum or sold your business, you're going to be fine. and try to resist the temptation of believing you're smarter
01:04:56
than everyone else and do stock picking and limit that to 20 or 30%. And I do think it's worthwhile to take some of
01:05:02
your money and do stuff because it forces you to learn about the market and also quite frankly it's fun. Anyways, that's my big asterisk here. Having said
01:05:08
that, my prediction is that um Alphabet is going to outperform the market and if
01:05:14
you look at Alphabet right now, they have so many incredible businesses. So the Google Cloud is a basically a 43
01:05:21
billion business going to 50. And if you put the same multiple on that business that Oracle gets, you get about a $400
01:05:27
billion a company worth about $400 billion. YouTube, which is essentially the biggest streamer in the world, if it
01:05:33
does $54 billion in business. If you apply that Netflix multiple, you get a $650 billion. So, we're at $1.1
01:05:40
trillion. Whimo, in my opinion, let's not even count that. Uh, but I still
01:05:45
think I think that's worth a lot of money. I think the autonomous war is about to break out and the leader is going to be Whimo and if they spin that
01:05:51
out, I think that'll get a huge valuation. So essentially what you have is at the most conservative level,
01:05:57
Google is being Google's being valued at uh about 800 billion to a trillion or
01:06:03
four to five times revenues and Chipotle and Coca-Cola trade at six times sales.
01:06:09
So you know Cava trades at 10 times sales. So a $200 billion a $200 billion
01:06:15
tech business that grew at 13% last year does not deserve a lower multiple than Coca-Cola m a mature food and beverage
01:06:22
firm with less than 50 billion in revenue that grew 3%. So if you do a sum of the parts analysis it's undervalued.
01:06:28
So the question is well why is it undervalued? And the the two reasons I think are one the existential threat
01:06:35
posed by open AI which is a threat but I think it's been overestimated and two
01:06:40
the likelihood of antitrust in a breakup which I believe would actually be accretive to shareholders if they were
01:06:46
forced to spin some of these companies because they would be unlocked from this conglomerate tax that the company is
01:06:51
paying right now. And my final point here is that right now Google trades at a PE of 19. The S&P 500 with its draw
01:06:59
downs trades at 24. So take an average company in the S&P, a PNG or a Dow. Like
01:07:05
I don't know what company sort of embodies the S&P, but those are both great companies, but any average
01:07:12
quoteunquote average company in the S&P is not nearly as impressive, isn't growing nearly as fast, doesn't have
01:07:18
nearly the margins of an alphabet. All right, Sundar Pachai thanks you. Well, I
01:07:24
really think this company of all of the big tech right now is the most undervalued and it's being overly
01:07:30
punished because of this existential threat of open AI and the notion of antitrust. One I think is overstated. I
01:07:36
think they are absolutely striking back in terms of AI and two I think antitrust if it if it the law was passed and they
01:07:43
had to spend something would actually be accretive to shareholders. There is no reason. Alphabet at the end of the day
01:07:48
is a much more impressive company than your average S&P company. And yet it's trading at 18 or 19 versus uh 25. And
01:07:57
it's traded at an average of 26 over the last 5 years. And even this year, even with its bump up yesterday, it's down
01:08:04
12% year-to date. It's this is an impressive company that in some I think is undervalued. So So interestingly, um
01:08:11
because Pseudo Pachai is sort of never mentioned, you know, you give Satchel lots of props. He's kind of a plotter. I
01:08:16
know him very well. I've known him since he was a young um product manager on a bunch of stuff at Google. Um he's kind
01:08:23
of a plotter. He's always thought of as doesn't make decisions fast enough. He certainly isn't a handwaver about himself. You know, he's quite he's a
01:08:30
lovely person in terms of being um he's just a nice guy. He's just a really nice
01:08:36
guy. So, he doesn't get the kind of props. And you're right. Um uh it's it's a difficult company to tell the story of
01:08:41
because there's so many parts of it. So, that's an interesting prediction. And I think that's that's interesting. But I I will note I use Google a lot less than I
01:08:48
did. I don't know why. Um but you're right. They they have a lot of they they really it's theirs to lose in many ways.
01:08:55
But it's good they have competition. Let me bring in a totally unrelated topic. Okay. So Sundra Pachchai and Sachin
01:09:01
Nadella two guys who've created unbelievable market cap hundreds of thousands of high-paying jobs incredible
01:09:07
ecosystem incredible share value. uh Sundra is from Majaray India and uh uh
01:09:14
Satcha is from Hyderabad India. The the the fact that we are not saying
01:09:21
to every Indian golden visa for anyone I can tell
01:09:28
you and I get I'm being I'm being a racist here. I think the Indian population that immigrates to America is
01:09:35
some of the most accretive positive human capital flow in history. Walk around the halls of Stern, these
01:09:43
Indian-Americans, these people who got to IIT and then decided of all their options to come to America. They are a
01:09:50
gift to America. At one point it the the head of Microsoft Sundar was a name that
01:09:55
was floated as the head of Microsoft also because he hadn't gotten the CEO of Google job. Um but yes, they're both
01:10:01
really remarkable uh citizens of the United States and also immigrants. Um and you know, I've had lots of really
01:10:09
interesting discussions with Sundar about the Trump anti-immigration Trump stuff, but he's a quiet leader. Well, I
01:10:15
think he'll probably You're right. It's there. So, it's a really interesting prediction. My prediction is that at 10:00 tonight, Cara Swisher will be so
01:10:22
happy cuz she's watching. Oh, you're going to I'm curious. You got to text me and tell me what you think. 10. I'll text you at 2:00 in the morning cuz it's
01:10:28
3-hour movie anyway because it'll be like a half an hour of previews, I'm sure. Anyway, I'm so excited. I've got the I bought the popcorn in advance and
01:10:34
the drink and I'm very excited to watch Mission Impossible Final Reckoning.
01:10:39
Anyway, I feel like an ad for them, but I don't care. I love that movie. Anyway, I love the series. Anyway, uh we want to
01:10:45
hear from you. Send us your questions about business tech or whatever is on your mind. Go to nymag.com/pivot to submit a question for
01:10:51
the show or call 8551 pivot. Uh, okay. That's the show. Thanks for listening to Pivot. Be sure
01:10:57
to like and subscribe to our YouTube channel, which is growing handily. Scott, we're actually dark next Tuesday
01:11:03
for Memorial Day, but we'll have a great episode of Stay Tuned with PIT in our feed. We'll be back next Friday. Uh,
01:11:09
Scott, read us out. Today's show is produced by Laura Neon, Zoe Marcus, Taylor Griffin, Kevin Oliver, and Karen
01:11:15
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01:11:21
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01:12:01
[Music]
