00:00:00
Even if you agree AI, as I do, is going to be huge and pay all sorts of dividends and build great companies, if
00:00:06
Nvidia sneezes, the world gets freaking stage four or walking pneumonia.
00:00:19
Hi everyone, this is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Carara Swisser and I'm Scott Galloway.
00:00:25
How you doing, Scott? Are you rested and back in London? Yeah, I'm back in London. I wouldn't describe myself as rested, but I feel
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pretty good. How are you? Good. I took one more trip to Las Vegas, but now I'm back. Are you [ __ ] me?
00:00:36
No, I'm not [ __ ] you. Talk to me. Back from DC to Vegas. Yeah, but now I'm back. I'm back for
00:00:42
until March. I'm not traveling until March. Really? Except for the holidays. It wor It worries me how much you
00:00:48
trouble travel. Yes, I know. I know. I know. It does. I like that you worry about me. We've got a lot to get to today, including the
00:00:54
Meta Monopoly verdict, which sort of got lost in the sauce, and Trump signing with all this news and Trump signing the
00:00:59
bill to release the Epstein files. But first, this is Nvidia shares are up around 3% at the time of taping after
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beating expectations for the third quarter earnings. The AI chipmaker reported a record 57 billion in revenue
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and a big a big chunk from one company, I it's got to be meta, and a 65% jump in
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profits. Uh CEO Jensen Wong addressed concerns about an AI bubble, saying from
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our vantage point, we're seeing something very different. Um Suna Pachai kind of alluded to it about bubble
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fears. Uh and in new partnerships, Nvidia and Microsoft are pouring money into Anthropic, raising the AI startups
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valuation to 350 billion. Microsoft will invest 5 billion. Well, Nvidia will invest 10 billion. Again, not a big
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amount of money for these people. Um and it's a huge valuation. And also Elon Musk is raising at an enormous
00:01:47
valuation. So talk a little bit about these results cuz uh Michael Bur got killed, right?
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The the short sellers got killed on this thing. Well, the entire literally the entire economy is has a huge sigh of relief
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because the narrative had had shifted just in a few weeks from AI boom to AI
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bubble. And this popped the AI bubble narrative at least for the time being.
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revenue came in at 57 versus 55 and those were very aggressive expectations.
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Their data seen revenue came in at 51.2 versus expected 49.3.
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Their adjusted earnings, their diluted earnings per share came in at 130 versus expectations of one. So basically it was
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a beat on very aggressive expectations. And they also guided up. They're now saying their Q4 revenue guidance is 65
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versus 62 billion up 5%. And also what's really imp I think the most impressive
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thing is their they've taken the guidance on their margins up to 75% from 746 74.6. I would have thought they'd be
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coming under some pricing pressure. Right. Yeah. And margin compression
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and then their sales growth accelerated to 63% which is enormous but it broke
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six a six quarter streak of deceleration of sales growth. And then to your point
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everything got lifted. Tesla was up one and a half% Microsoft one, Meta 1, Amazon 1.6 and now
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they've been declining. Let's be clear for people. They had been Yeah. But not not really a lot.
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Oracle is really down. Like it lost all its gains. But go ahead. The economy, and I hate this about our
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economy right now, and to a certain extent, the Trump administration's cloud cover is really being propped up by
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these 10 companies. And so the fact that it it just the narrative uh was not
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supported here and the market was looking there's just no getting around it. The market seemed to be really
00:03:46
grasping for evidence that the AI bubble narrative was had some veracity to it
00:03:52
and they didn't get it in this earnings call. They just didn't get still am nervous about I've been reading up a lot
00:03:57
you know as you know you introd Andrew Ross Sorcin for his book and some others and there's some very persuasive Bill
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Cohen wrote a very persuasive piece about possible bust coming you know and as you said it can run up before the
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bust right and and these sort of echoes of this issue uh you know it's interesting because they were all at
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this NBS event at the White House um uh and one of the things and then there was
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a ensuing Saudi whatever afterwards like uh and and to me I feel like I mean if
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Jensen Wong was any closer to Trump he'd be on the other side of him right so they're they have this sort of um grip
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together that they have to have right this company this particular company um has to have and he's certainly playing
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it you know he's you know he's he's using every card in the book to do this um do you what is your worry so we had
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talked about this on the tour of this worry of it being particularly this company um and and the companies around
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it which are all benefiting from it. Do you still have a worry about it or is just pushed off to another day? Because
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it still is the the numbers still don't math doesn't math here eventually at
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some point. My worry is the following that uh the definition of a robust economy is
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that no one company can take it down broad a broad-based if McDonald the fast food industry is a
00:05:20
robust industry. If the biggest player, McDonald's, went out of business tomorrow, you would still be able to
00:05:25
find cheap calories at a variety of places and the economy would not be taken down.
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JP Morgan is probably so big now. JP Morgan is now worth more than the 10
00:05:38
biggest banks in Europe combined. And if Jaime Diamond called President Trump or Bassant and said, "Oh god, you're not
00:05:43
going to believe this story, guys. is there was some rogue trader and somehow we missed it in compliance and he
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figured out a way to lever it all up and we're $110 billion down and I need a bailout if he were to ever make that
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call and I don't I think it's unlikely because I think since Sarbain Oxley and stress testing I think that they did a
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really good job post 2008 of creating a sort of a Goldilocks
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compliance structure famous last words it's going to be something's going to happen tomorrow where there's enough.
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They allow them enough leverage such that they can continue to grow the economy and loan out more money than they take in while constantly stress
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testing for a black swan event. But you can never but but the bottom line is JP if if if Jaime Diamond were to make that
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call, Trump would have no choice but to bail them out because if JP Morgan goes down, the domino effect would be
00:06:33
terrible here. So you could argue that the banking the banking industry is not robust. Our economy right now is riding
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on a small number of companies based on the expectations that AI will be bigger than GPS or the internet. And the the
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thing that worries me is that every one of the companies we talk about has been down 50 to 70% or more in a 12-month
00:06:56
period in the last 5 or seven years. They just have hiccups. And the problem is these companies now command such an
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enormous part, right, of the S&P very similar to the 1929 crash. Yeah.
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And in addition as a percentage of as a as historical PE averages or the Buffett
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test, they just seem so expensive. And where we are is if just through the natural
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cycle, even if you agree AI, as I do, is going to be huge and pay all sorts of dividends and build great companies. If
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Nvidia sneezes, the world gets freaking stage four or walking pneumonia. It
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doesn't catch a cold because unfortunately our demographics have become less
00:07:39
robust. And that is now the top 10% represent 50% of spending. And the bad news about that is that if a middle
00:07:47
class household's confidence goes down or their income goes down, their spending goes down. But so much of their
00:07:54
spending is things they have to spend money on, food, housing, right? That it affects the economy. But if the
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top 10% all of a sudden get a chill because their stock portfolio is off 40%.
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They can take their discretionary span down 50%. Right. Not just that or out of the stock
00:08:13
market. Like I have stock holdings and I thought I'm going to there seem to be it's it's this sort of vague worry I
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guess. And the the new partnerships of them pouring money into each of these companies, it still feels like
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they're all 99 circular [ __ ] Exactly. I was like, what is happening here? And I I wish I
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you know, we should bring Bill Cohen on to explain it to us, but the these fundings seem some they're just using
00:08:37
the money they get to get other money to keep the valuation. Yeah. Slight of hand. I'll invest this money you but you got to spend it all on
00:08:44
me. It's circular deals. Mhm. Yeah. It's not. They're all They're all in club deals. We did in the late 90s,
00:08:51
I'm not exaggerating, someone would call me another another I was starting internet companies and a
00:08:56
bunch of us used to call each other and say, "I'm doing a round where you put in 50 or 100 grand." And the expectation was you'd put 50 or 100 grand back into
00:09:02
their next round. Right. Right. And the problem is we all kind of woke up and realized we were buying each other's products and when so when
00:09:09
when one of us went down, it just took all of us down. Yeah. That's my That's my So there was like it works on the way
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up. It's like it's like borrowing. It's like buying stocks on margin. It's fantastic as long as things continue to
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go up. It's especially not fantastic when things uh start to go down. But I'm the unwind
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here is pretty obvious. Big traditional company. We're scaling back our AI investment. We're reducing
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our site licenses and open in OpenAI and Anthropic. Nvidia reports a down
00:09:41
quarter. And you see Yeah. It go I mean, let's keep us keep that in mind. You see an enormous draw
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down and then a small number of people controlling a disproportionate amount of the economy substantially check back
00:09:53
their spending and boom we are in a recession like overnight and it could
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the fear is does it create panic selling? Yeah. So look it it's coming. We just don't
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know when. Yeah it's coming. Yeah. Then of course they were all at that dinner the NBS dinner to like it was all tech people. I
00:10:11
mean it was mostly tech people. Elon of course Wow. made a lot of news, didn't it? Yeah, I did. Let we'll get to that in a
00:10:17
minute. But very quickly, a meta scored. This is something that didn't get as much attention. A major victory in court
00:10:23
with a federal judge ruling the company didn't break antitrust laws when it bought Instagram and WhatsApp. As I said
00:10:29
back in April, this was a weak trial. Um, which I I thought it was. And clearly the judge agreed because he
00:10:35
listens to me. No, I'm not. I'm kidding. I just thought this was a silly trial. The judge and I and the judge said the
00:10:41
government failed to prove Meta is currently a monopoly, noting that Tik Tok is now Meta's fiercest rival. The case dates back to 2020 when the FDC
00:10:48
accused Meta of using Bayer Berry strategy to crush competition. These big antitrust suits have been mixed bag so
00:10:54
far. Google lost the search and advertising cases. Uh though it didn't have to do anything. It didn't have to spin off Chrome. The Amazon and Apple
00:11:01
trials are still a few years away. So it'll be a while before we know how those shake out. But I would say Apple and Amazon are much more monopolistic
00:11:08
than any of these others. Um, and we're, you know, but the thing is, is it going to cause Meta to make a ton of
00:11:14
acquisitions? And just remember before the trial began, Mark Zuckerberg visited the White House, prostrated himself, and
00:11:20
tried to lobby for a sent settlement. He didn't need to do that. Nice job, Mark, for uh for uh prostrating yourself, but
00:11:28
you didn't need to. The case was solid. like I I thought it was at the time and you know I'm never on their side but it
00:11:34
was very clear there's competition. The gate on consolidation has traditionally been that economists at the FDC and the DOJ said there's going
00:11:41
to be too much concentration of power which will give you too much pricing power which will result in a transfer of
00:11:48
money from consumers to the shareholders of that monopoly. And monopolies themselves aren't illegal. It's monopoly
00:11:54
power and monopoly abuse. So occasionally when scale makes sense, they say fine, you can have a monopoly
00:12:00
on sell service or the utility, but we're going to regulate you to make sure you don't abuse that monopoly power.
00:12:06
What the you have right now is there is no gate. The FDC and the DOJ essentially
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have said it's a free-for-all. As far as I can tell, Jonathan Caner would disagree with me and say there's still
00:12:19
people doing the work, but as far as I can tell, or the CEOs I talked to, they are sharpening their pencils. one
00:12:24
because they have very fully valued stock which is like having a pre-loaded credit card that you can go out and go
00:12:30
shopping for, right? So all of a sudden everything in the eyes of Palunteer is 90% off because their stocks up 10fold.
00:12:38
So if they do an acquisition for stock, it costs them a tenth of what it used to cost them. So investment banking, M&A,
00:12:44
which had been in a deep freeze for several years, is now just booming. If I I saw Terry Kawaj at a party the other
00:12:51
night. He's in M&A and I just knew I've got I bet your business is amazing. And he's like better than ever. Anyone in
00:12:57
M&A right now is turning away calls unless it's an enormous fee because a
00:13:03
companies have cash in stock to go shopping with and b they're not worried about antitrust. What's interesting is
00:13:10
what has somewhat replaced the gating factor of FTC or DOJ review based on
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monopoly power has been replaced by this gating power of cronyism and oligarchy.
00:13:21
Whereas like I don't think Netflix can potentially or could potentially get
00:13:27
a deal through to acquire Warner Brothers assets because Trump has decided he thinks Reed Hastings is a
00:13:32
Democrat. Yeah, let's hold that because we're going to talk about in a minute. But this is this case was weak. There's
00:13:38
competition in Zamar Zuckerberg's world. Correct. I mean, well, some data. Since the year Meta
00:13:44
acquired WhatsApp, YouTube active users have doubled. Tik Tok went from not existing to having 1.6 billion. LinkedIn
00:13:51
users increased by roughly 4x. Snapchat users increased by more than 8x. And
00:13:56
Meta's total daily active users increased by roughly um 4x. Now, I still
00:14:02
believe these companies are too dominant. So, for example, with Meta, three and a half billion people or 43%
00:14:08
of the world's population use a Meta product daily. Out of the eight out of the top eight most used social media
00:14:14
platforms globally, Meta owns four of them. And Meta garners 21% of all digital ad spend, more than any other
00:14:21
social media company. It's the ad thing that I do think that's the one that's a case that's coming,
00:14:26
right? And and I would argue that there's evidence of monopoly abuse here by virtue of the fact that they don't
00:14:31
ever um feel feel compelled. I would argue that the the the the margin power and
00:14:38
the monopoly power gets translates into what I call non-economic costs. And that
00:14:44
is they can put out content that results in teen girls cutting themselves and they don't feel the onus to do anything.
00:14:51
I think the rents that Meta is charging on parents around the world has accelerated dramatically and is more
00:14:57
indicative of a company that's a monopoly and doesn't need to respond to anything to concerns of anybody or anything. I I
00:15:04
just it's like oh that is that is the cost that that is that's where the real action should happen not here unfortunately. Okay,
00:15:11
Scott, let's go on a quick break. When we come back, Trump signs the Epstein files bill and takes a unearned victory
00:15:18
lap. Support for the show comes from Vanguard. The lineup includes over 80
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00:16:13
distributor Scott, we're back. President Trump has
00:16:18
signed the bill ordering the Justice Department to release the files on Jeffrey Epste within the next 30 days. Trump is also taking credit for the bill
00:16:25
overwhelmingly passing through the House whatever Senate. But after this, the full files still might not get released.
00:16:31
The bill has some major loopholes. Before Trump signed the bill, Attorney General Pam Bondi was asked about the DOJ releasing the complete file. She
00:16:38
didn't exactly give a straight answer. What a shock from Blondie. Let's listen. We will continue to follow the law with
00:16:45
maximum transparency while protecting victims.
00:16:51
When you say the law attorney general, do you mean that you will provide all the files by 30 days?
00:16:58
We will follow the law. The law passed both chambers last evening. It has not
00:17:04
yet been signed, but but we will continue to to follow the law again while protecting victims, but also
00:17:10
providing maximum transparency. Uh, anyone else saying that? I believe she does not. She's going to follow the
00:17:17
law. Scott, the files remain a touchy subject for Trump. When Bloomberg Ca uh Bloomberg's Katherine Lucy asked him
00:17:23
about it on air Force One this week, Trump snapped quiet piggy. Uh the White
00:17:28
House official backed up Trump saying if you're going to give it, you have to be able to take it, I guess. Um let's start
00:17:34
with the release of the files. Um will it finally put things to rest? And part of the ongoing fallout, there's people
00:17:40
are paying the price. Larry Summers is stepping down from teaching at Harvard where his ties to Epste are
00:17:46
investigated. He also resigned from Open Eyes board. Of course, he had a series of his his how do I date this lady
00:17:53
emails between him using Epstein as his dating advisor got out and that was all
00:17:58
it took for that. Um thoughts on this because I mean I think it's a question of what's going to get
00:18:05
out. Um I talked about this a little bit last night. It's a question of what they're going to release, how they're
00:18:10
going to release it, what's it going to say if they expune things or try to favor uh Republicans over Democrats,
00:18:17
etc., etc. There's it's sort of everything's in the details, but I don't think he can. I think if he if he does
00:18:23
something like that, he'll look even more guilty. But your thoughts? Well, first off, ju just how ridiculous
00:18:28
it is that Trump wants to take credit for the release of the Epstein files while at the same time calling it a
00:18:34
hoax. Yeah. The ridiculous notion that they will continue to follow the law and be maximum transparent. The head of the FBI
00:18:41
has already claimed that they released everything they could and she has done nothing but be
00:18:47
essentially an acolyte and an instrument. She's acting like his personal lawyer. Yeah. They they were doing anything they
00:18:53
could. I've said the third most powerful person in the world is a dead pedophile who convinced Mike Johnson to to let
00:19:00
Congress tell Congress to go home because they were so afraid of a vote. He has denied
00:19:05
democracy. he wouldn't seat a duly elected representative because he was worried that she was going to be the
00:19:12
183rd vote or whatever it is. They have done everything possible to
00:19:17
try and delay the release of this and it has done nothing but create this stench of guilt
00:19:23
around the presidency. But even more bigger than this, last night I was reading through some of these emails.
00:19:28
Mhm. I think this is a really big moment and not just for the reasons we think that
00:19:35
it might implicate or embarrass the president or other people. I think this
00:19:40
is that Caesar moment in Planet of the Apes where he says no and it inspires a
00:19:46
revolution and reconfigures the social order or Tianaan Square or uh the Arab
00:19:53
Spring when that young man I love you use Planet of the Apes metaphor but go ahead. Uh, by the way,
00:19:58
when I was with Bill Maher, they gave me Planet of the Apes figures. Yeah, that's right. We love Planet of the Apes. His producer did.
00:20:04
You know, that moment that inspires a revolution. Mhm. I think this is it. And it's not it's
00:20:10
not even whether it should be or not that we might find out about the abhorrent, aberrant, weird behavior of
00:20:18
certain individuals. If you read these emails, the thing that I think is going to that
00:20:24
is going to make this a moment that inspires a pretty serious shifting the ground beneath us is that the tone and the vibe
00:20:34
of these men is literally like we can do whatever the [ __ ] we want. Yes. Really?
00:20:40
No, but I I I think it's easy to be signal. I I don't I'm not significant. I I that's how they
00:20:46
behave. I I I think I found it shocking and I consider I think I know some of
00:20:52
these people pretty well. I think it's got I think people are going to read this and go that's it.
00:20:58
We're done. We're done with these billionaires talking about [ __ ] space about
00:21:05
about taking n$9 billion dollars from farmers but finding 40 billion for Argentina about cutting taxes for the
00:21:12
rich but taking away healthcare from 14 million Americans. And then they listen to the tone. It's one thing when an
00:21:20
individual has aberrant, illegal, strange, depraved behavior, you like to
00:21:25
think it's ring fence to the [ __ ] up mind of that person. But when you read these emails, you're like, "This is a
00:21:31
vibe." Yeah. These people, what would you call the vibe? What What is it? Douche nozzle.
00:21:38
No, no, no. The the word is entitled. Yeah. They feel like they are entitled to an
00:21:43
entirely It comes back to this one statement I love. Mhm. These people think that they are
00:21:48
protected by the law but not bound by it. And that the rest of us are bound by the law but not protected by it.
00:21:54
Right. Right. And I think people are going to read these emails and just think, you know what, this is our let them eat cake
00:22:00
moment. We have had it with these people. And I think you're going to see uh a reconfiguration in tax policy. I
00:22:07
think you could see uh for the first time a move towards socialized medicine. I think you're going to see a dramatic
00:22:13
increase in tax rates. I think people are are think this and like okay there
00:22:18
something is wrong in Mudville when we have a small number of powerful people strutting strutting on the stage. I
00:22:25
would agree. I it's so funny you say that because uh I'm going um on uh on
00:22:30
the on the I've had it podcast and they're going to come on my podcast. Um yeah and they they've gotten very
00:22:36
popular and which is uh you know it's Jennifer Wal and Angie Celebrate. I was on their podcast.
00:22:41
Yeah. What? I'm sorry. Yeah, they're fun. I was on their podcast. Yeah, they're they're fun ladies and but they are also tapping into
00:22:46
something like you've got to [ __ ] be kidding me with these [ __ ] Like I think it's really and they do it in a
00:22:52
funny way obviously, but one of the things as I was watching and we will talk about this the the MBS thing is
00:22:59
like and then they went on their thing. they can't shut the [ __ ] up about and they strut around whether it's Nvidia's
00:23:06
uh CEO with his leather jacket pontificating on all manner of things and just they won't shut the [ __ ] up.
00:23:14
That's what I kept thinking like and they won't stop taking right. They won't stop. They're like p I I used the the
00:23:21
the the Beatles um I put the picture of that dinner up uh with the Beatles thing. It's piggies. They're little
00:23:27
piggies like and that's what it fe it's got a real piggy pigish feel to it and
00:23:33
the quiet piggy I thought was really I mean I know you know whatever but can
00:23:39
you imagine working at a workplace as as someone a CEO saying that to an employee
00:23:45
what would happen like what you mean what the president a quiet piggy yeah and then of course insulting Mary Bruce from ABC for asking
00:23:52
a perfectly legitimate question about corruption like and also about the death
00:23:58
of Jamal Kosigible. I just was like quiet piggy. That to me to that really I
00:24:04
think infuriated so many people and not because how dare you call me you know uh
00:24:10
you know a girl when I'm a woman that wasn't that it was there there's something in the the words that quiet
00:24:16
and piggy together is something's really it sort of encapsulates these people at
00:24:22
but that again I think this is bigger than that. I think that a man who has
00:24:27
demonstrated nothing but an immense lack of character, uh, a level of misogyny, punching down,
00:24:35
has no sense of the connection between prosperity and protection, is depraved,
00:24:41
selfish. I I think I really do think President Trump, and I don't use this word lightly, is going to be a stain on the
00:24:48
American experience. He's going to be the history books are just not going to be kind to him. But this is bigger than
00:24:54
that. And also I do think it's a little unfair carrot to conflate or include Jensen Hang as the same breath as these
00:25:01
guys. But I'm talking about they won't stop dancing on the stage. They take
00:25:07
Jensen has to dance to support a $5 trillion valuation. Yes, I guess he's talking his own book.
00:25:12
But an entirely different league of depraved and also more than an individual being that's fair
00:25:19
very insecure and weird like President Trump. this culture where they all speak
00:25:24
as if it's there's this underlying baseline assumption that they just get to live by a different set of rules.
00:25:32
Yeah. When I'm reading these emails, I'm like, "Oh, he's an idiot." Or, "Oh, god, this person sounds weird," or whatever. But
00:25:39
you start to see this vibe across these people where it's like they have just
00:25:44
decided that the rules no longer of decorum, of decency, no longer apply to
00:25:50
them. talk about Summers because you know he's a very you know he's a Democrat. He was a Democrat. He's been very critical of President Trump. You
00:25:57
know for years he's he's very arrogant. He's a very he has a enormous reputation for arrogance and rude remarks about
00:26:04
women etc. when he was at Harvard and women are stupider essentially. Um and of course he has I think he's out now
00:26:12
right? I mean it's really interesting. He's out. He's done. He's done. What do you think of this? I mean, if I was when I think I texted the open air,
00:26:19
I'm not sure if I did. I was like, he's off, right? He's I never loved it when he got on the board, but he was a weird
00:26:25
choice in my opinion, but um but what do you why does he pay? It's really And his
00:26:30
his emails were weird. You know, they're basically dating advice from Jeffrey
00:26:35
Epstein. Um weird enough, but why do you think he he definitely is stepping down
00:26:40
from Harvard off Open AI board and he's pretty much done? That would be my thing. Correct. There's no returning
00:26:47
from this. Or maybe there is. Who knows? The problem is when the grenade explodes, there's not a lot of nuance in the shrapnel.
00:26:52
Yeah. Fair. And I would argue that I mean the temptation is just to pile on everyone here and you get
00:26:58
accused of being an Epstein, a defender of Epstein. And I'm not that. I think
00:27:05
Larry demonstrated poor judgment and immaturity, but I don't think what he did was like
00:27:11
in even in the same [ __ ] universe as what some of these people are being accused of. Yep. I agree.
00:27:16
He's he had poor judgment continuing to fraternize with a guy who is a convicted
00:27:21
pedophile, right? And he just looks stupid asking for dating advice.
00:27:27
But and also I do think it's a little bit unfair. A lot of the research that he got a lot of [ __ ] for
00:27:33
was citing differences in certain types of intelligence between the genders. And it wasn't that he was saying one gender
00:27:38
I don't believe was less intelligent than the other. He he got in trouble for just saying that they were different.
00:27:44
Well, and but in the email you heard he he was very clear he was I get it. But can you imagine if all of
00:27:51
your emails became public? No, I wouldn't I wouldn't want them. That's what I thought. I thought this is this is who's going to pay this [ __ ]
00:27:57
I mean, I think he's arrogant, but I think you're I'll give I think you're a very thoughtful uh progressive person with great
00:28:03
judgment. I think someone could look through every one of your emails and cherry pick them and make you look really really bad.
00:28:09
Agreed. I I wasn't asking dating advice from Jeffrey Epstein. It's an unfortunate person.
00:28:14
I get it. It's not the world's biggest tragedy that a 70-year-old man has to leave these boards and and leave,
00:28:20
but quite frankly, he's like a little bit like Gary Hart. The earth has shifted beneath Larry Summers at exactly
00:28:26
the wrong time. Exactly. That's what I was thinking. And I would argue that if these things came out in the in a different context
00:28:34
two years ago or 5 years ago, it would be embarrassing and page six of post, but it wouldn't end his career.
00:28:40
No, he's definitely standing on the crack as it opens. I mean, that's the thing. And people don't like him, right? So it also adds people aren't like
00:28:47
well and he's a Democrat and and so you can imagine that the Republican operatives wanted to this story to get
00:28:54
as much oxygen to push out what should be real real stories
00:28:59
of people abusing children. So I I don't want to say I feel sorry for Larry but I don't think
00:29:06
I don't think this is a different this is an embarrassing stupid behavior of a tonedeaf older man. It is not child
00:29:14
abuse. No, I know. Well, and so I think this is different and I I don't I agree. I just thought this was the one
00:29:20
that this is the guy that's going to get it. Like this dumbass, this is the person they're going after. I think we'll see.
00:29:26
The press is focusing on a guy asking for dating advice. Stuff is going to come out. Even this short amount of stuff has done damage to
00:29:33
very much has done damage to Trump. No question. You know, this is what he's talking about all the time, right? this
00:29:39
is what he this is his topic of of um this is his topic. Let's just say like
00:29:44
this is now what he's doing. So he I don't think the shoes have dropped fully for Donald Trump on this issue yet, but
00:29:50
a question of how much Pam Bondi who's relatively incompetent as you can tell by other cases. Actually, not
00:29:56
relatively, she's completely incompetent. Um, I I feel like they're gonna bollocks it and it's gonna really
00:30:01
come to slap Trump really hard on his See, the way I would describe Pam Bondi,
00:30:06
unfortunately, she's more dangerous because I don't think she's incompetent. I think she's corrupt. Yeah.
00:30:12
I don't think she's incompetent. I I don't think Look at that case against Comey. Oh my god. Oh, no. But that's the the appointee who
00:30:18
has no business. She's part of it. I mean, nothing gets turned off. That's fair, right? I think she's incompetent. I
00:30:23
think she's I don't think they're going to be able to cover it up. That's my feeling. I think it's going to be very hard to cover this stuff up. It's
00:30:29
getting out. It It's getting out. It's just going to get out. This is how I feel about But what And I I'll push this question
00:30:36
to you. There's a chance that people are like, "Okay, am I going to go down? Is GOP uh going
00:30:44
to begin to stand for guardians of pedophile and of pedophiles and I do not
00:30:50
I do not want to be one of these people. So now I'm going to flip and become aggressive, including disparaging the
00:30:57
president if I need to. Is this is this a turning point where people like, "Oh, [ __ ] I don't want to be an accomplice
00:31:03
here. I'm going to start turning on the mob boss." Yeah, I think so. As I said, and that's what happens with all these people. And
00:31:09
actually, Thomas Massie made that point, the one who's gotten pushed this through. I got to say, he really has a
00:31:14
set to have pushed this through and been successful. Anyway, um along with Roana.
00:31:19
Uh uh Scott, let's go on a quick break. When we come back, we'll talk about whether Elon Musk and Trump are getting
00:31:25
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innovation. Scott, we're back with more news. Elon Musk seems to be dipping his toe back into politics. Musk made an
00:32:02
appearance at the White House dinner hosted by Donald Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman on Tuesday.
00:32:08
Aside from Charlie Kirk's memorial, this is the only time Musk and Trump have been seen together since their big feud.
00:32:14
Uh I'm not sure if the bromance rekindled. And while we're on the topic of Saudi uh the Saudi Crown Prince
00:32:19
Muhammad bin Salman's visit, let's hear what Trump had to say when a journalist at the White House brought up the murder
00:32:25
of journalist Jamal Kosogi. I will remind people uh our intelligence services have linked uh the the the cut
00:32:32
him into pieces. They b I call him Mohammad Bones saw um uh and and it was
00:32:38
at his behest. So let's listen. As far as this gentleman is concerned, he's done a phenomenal job. You're
00:32:44
mentioning somebody that was extremely controversial. A lot of people didn't like that gentleman that you're talking
00:32:50
about. Whether you like him or didn't like him, things happened. But he knew nothing about it. And we can leave it at
00:32:56
that. You don't have to embarrass our guest by asking a question like that. It's ridiculous. What a ridiculous thing. He did know our intelligence
00:33:02
services. He he ordered the murder. And actually, oddly enough, NBS was more I
00:33:07
guess like we've mistakes were made. And I think he he he was actually more truthful about what happened which is he
00:33:14
ordered this murder. This is a murder. It's there's no other way to put it about Jamal Kosigible. And what was
00:33:20
really it's just striking because you know he sort of slathered himself which I don't think is going to help him with his MAGA friends. Um uh but I just think
00:33:28
he's slathering himself in this guy and was making all these claims out $1 trillion in investment which the Saudi
00:33:34
economy isn't that big right? this kind of and there of course there are that that PIFF which they don't like PIF is
00:33:41
having problems because of of all and I think it's NOIM or whatever they're building or all a lot of their
00:33:47
investments are turning you know you know tits up as they say so you know
00:33:52
don't embarrass guests about murders they've committed Scott that's I guess that's what I would take away from this
00:33:58
this was the strangest encounter lately and mostly Trump looking kind of weirdly
00:34:04
again corrupt once Man, it goes to what you said. It's incompetence. They they should have been
00:34:10
prepared for that question. And I actually think that NBS, if he'd said, look,
00:34:15
uh, my government makes mistakes and he did actually.
00:34:20
And without referencing, he actually said that. Also, quite frankly, he could have said, you know, a lot of people think that
00:34:27
your country coming into my region and killing 400,000 people in Iraq was a mistake. Yeah. I mean they they just should have
00:34:34
been prepared for that question and I think they could have answered it. You're not going to find moral clarity
00:34:40
moral clarity in geopolitics. Correct. And I I want to be I want to be clear. I
00:34:46
believe that NBS ordered the murder and hacking. So does our intelligence services. It's
00:34:52
not I don't think it's in question by anybody but Trump. But what I always put forward is okay
00:34:58
now what? Now what do we went in and killed 400,000 people in Iraq. Does that
00:35:03
mean no one in the region should ever do deal with our econom? I mean it's like okay now what folks and but for the
00:35:10
president to get defensive and weird about a question they knew was going to come they should have been able to and
00:35:17
NBS I don't want to say I'm a fan of NBS. I'm a fan of US Saudi relations
00:35:23
because I think it's ultimately the the smartest thing for US defense and security. And also I I I I I think any
00:35:30
an honest an analysis would have to position NBS as actual an actual
00:35:36
reformer. So I don't but this is incompetence for the president not to know this question
00:35:42
was coming be this defensive why why the slathering you know the insulting of our allies that are more
00:35:49
important than MBS Europe etc. And the sort of like it was speaking of
00:35:55
[ __ ] it was like a [ __ ] of a dinner. It was a blow and pretending that these I mean and ridiculous
00:36:00
repetition. He's going to invest a billion a trillion dollars. Their economy is not that big. It's just it's
00:36:06
they're a minor they're they're having their own troubles with their investments by the way. They've made all kinds of bad
00:36:13
investments and um and and of course most people just went there to get money from them, right? They were sort of like
00:36:19
the bank the the the cash machine essentially the uh for people to go over there from Silicon Valley and elsewhere
00:36:25
and a lot of it is just turned up shitty. So why are we giving this much attention to this group of people and
00:36:31
handing over I think he did great. He got the F-35s. What the [ __ ] did we got except our president decided that being
00:36:39
bones saw is just you know things happen my friend like oh look we have we get a lot we we have
00:36:44
military bases there steal right now. We're getting a we're getting a lot of money. We continue to
00:36:49
get access to cheap capital to fund our companies. But they're not actually as I sent you
00:36:55
that story. They're not they're cutting back rather substantively on all their investments here.
00:37:01
The pivot, if you will, the change in complexion around investments coming out of the Gulf is the following. They used
00:37:06
to send their capital overseas and what they're saying now is we'll invest in your company, but we want you to build factor. We want you to build an economy
00:37:13
here. Right? So rather than giving you money to rather than giving you money to go build a ride hailing service in Miami,
00:37:20
we'll give you money, but we want you to build a ride hailing service here and we want you to have a regional headquarters
00:37:25
here. We need to build an internal consumption economy as opposed to just a giant hedge fund. Makes sense.
00:37:31
The rel if we normalize relationships between the kingdom and Israel, I think it'll make the whole region
00:37:36
he didn't promise to sign on. He didn't they didn't get that out of him. Which will be which will be more
00:37:42
peaceful. I I think that look I I think that they are now the either the biggest
00:37:48
or the second biggest economy in the region. We have huge strategic overlap.
00:37:53
I don't think he should have come. I I I think that they were this is just this
00:37:58
demonstrates economist uh incompetence. This is an important strategic relationship that needs to be managed
00:38:04
better than the president not prepared for an obvious question that is coming down the pike that makes NBS look bad
00:38:11
that makes the president look bad. This is just in he threatened ABC's license right now.
00:38:17
He just sucked up the entire thing. If I were Bob Iger right now, I'd be like just I would go on the offensive like
00:38:23
go. Well, they kind of are. They they have been very I don't want to say bold, but they've been unafraid lately because I
00:38:30
was at I was at one of these Masters of the Universe dinners with eight or 10 people
00:38:37
uh in LA and I mean some very powerful people in front of other people in front
00:38:42
of mix company were like Bob Iger is a [ __ ] coward. I know. I mean and these are people in the
00:38:48
industry that are big and so I've heard that. So, I think Bob
00:38:54
has decided that is not how I want to go out. That's right. I think he's having I think he's recognized. He [ __ ] up. And I think I
00:39:00
don't want to say they're overcorrecting, but if you look at George Stephanopoulos, if you look they have basically said to the
00:39:06
journalists at ABC as far as I can tell, go after him. Go the don't you know we need
00:39:15
we are hardcore journalists. Start acting like it. Yeah. Uh anyway, that's that's my sense. I I I
00:39:21
I know this. I think he's I think I think the time for you know the time for
00:39:27
what's that expression from my favorite movie Gladiator? The time for celebrating yourself is over. I think that that I do think that I thought that
00:39:34
question I thought that reporter did a great job was very respectful and asked exactly the question in a respectful but
00:39:41
firm way. Same thing with George Stefan. I think they're like bring it [ __ ] on. You take a go come take our license
00:39:47
please try give it a try. Let's see how that works out for you. I mean that's the thing and then you know his his
00:39:53
anxious I think this is Bob Iger trying to salvage his reputation and he should before the 6 months before he announces
00:40:00
his succession plan. He should he's got nothing to lose. Good for him. Yeah, good for him. Anyway, um as we
00:40:05
were speaking of deals in Hollywood because he was the masters of the universe. I'd like to know what you think. Um the deadline has arrived for
00:40:10
Warner Brothers Discovery bids. Paramount, Comcast, and Netflix are expected to make offers for some or all
00:40:15
the company. Paramount is widely considered the front runner thanks to financial and political advantages, but we'll see. The company is denying a
00:40:22
report that has partnered with sovereign wealth funds of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Abu Dhabi for a $71 billion offer that
00:40:29
was reported. Warner Brothers board is expected to review the offers before Thanksgiving and aim to have the process
00:40:34
wrapped by the end of the year. Um, they could also still just do the spinout thing, but there's enough interest here
00:40:39
at this and this is real interest and let me say Comcast is definitely interested um uh in this. I think
00:40:45
they're perplexed about the non-economic bid by Paramount because Daddy Warbucks has the money to do so and they want to
00:40:52
make an economic and they mostly are they're interested in in the in the studios and the streaming service.
00:40:58
Netflix has promised things like putting movies into theaters. They're trying to make themselves seem attractive. Um so
00:41:06
any I know you think this is a small thing but it's a it's a big deal for Hollywood, right?
00:41:11
And it'll also make uh it'll go it'll make the number of studios smaller, which of course now the writers and the
00:41:17
directors, they're all sort of weighing in here. So I I expect plenty of of push
00:41:23
back from them. Um depending on what happens here, most people I think Zazov is favoring Comcast. That's my
00:41:29
impression. Um he'll get a bigger role there. I don't think people much like I think the the worm has turned already on
00:41:36
David Ellison a little bit. They they they're very to me they're very freely calling him nepo baby and you know his
00:41:44
UFC deal seems a little overp seems like a one of them said they just these other
00:41:50
billionaires just took advantage of the dumber billionaire young billionaire essentially um so I don't know but they
00:41:56
have money and they have you know non-economic power I guess they just are just want it
00:42:02
I just you know daddy wants to buy his son the car I guess I don't What do you think? I I feel like Comcast
00:42:09
is the best owner here or Netflix, but um in terms of quality and and the
00:42:14
ability to to move forward, I think Paramount desperately needs this. Thoughts about what did you hear in LA?
00:42:20
The fulcrum in this deal is simply put how wealthy Larry Ellison feels when he
00:42:25
gets up in the morning when he gets a call from his son and says, "Okay, what's our best and final?" Because in
00:42:32
Warner Brothers and their bankers have done the right thing. They've put a deadline on this thing to try and impose some discipline and say, "Okay, let's"
00:42:38
Explain why they did that for people who don't know because Oh, you do whenever you're selling a company and you have multiple biders, which it appears they do now, or at
00:42:44
least multiple interested parties, you put a deadline on it and you force people to get serious and put their best foot forward. You try and create a sense
00:42:51
of urgency. Um, and so you impose some discipline and say, "Okay, all letters of intent need to be in by a certain
00:42:56
date and your best and final offers have to be in by this date." And then you and then you go back and ask them for a
00:43:02
little bit more to get the deal done. But just to give it's a little bit confusing. So I just want to sort of break it break down the parties here.
00:43:09
So Paramount after having their 2350 $23.50 cents a share bid rejected.
00:43:17
They're reportedly preparing an offer alongside of sovereign wealth funds of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Abu Dhabi.
00:43:22
Although they've denied although they've denied this. Although that felt like good reporting to me. I don't know if you saw it. That doesn't
00:43:29
feel like a rumor. It felt too obtuse to be just a rumor. Netflix execs have met
00:43:34
with Warner Brothers and reportedly said that a potential bid would include continuing the release of Warner Brothers movies in theaters. They're
00:43:40
trying to appeal to the creative community. Comcast, the company has retained bankers for an offer and we now
00:43:45
know that they are specifically interested in streaming in studios and networks. But here's the bottom line. Because of
00:43:52
what was called the Revlon law or whatever it was called, Warner Brothers has an obligation to just accept the
00:43:59
highest bidder. all this other stuff is somewhat noise. They will get shareholder lawsuits at the end of the
00:44:05
day. They can say to someone, "We like you and if you match this, we'll give it to you." But at at the end of the day,
00:44:12
if Ellison shows up with 10 cents more per share, they have a shareholder
00:44:17
obligation. So, will he do that? That's what I'm Well, that's the shares are down. They
00:44:22
went they had that big run up and now they're running down this That's the correct question. This all
00:44:28
comes down to in my view, daddy. Larry Ellison wakes up in the morning and David, his son calls him and says,
00:44:35
"Okay, it's going to cost us $24.75 to get this." This is the bankers will do
00:44:41
their job. The bankers will get the highest number. And then they'll go back to the Ellison who have the deepest pocket and say, "We have an offer at 24
00:44:48
bucks a share." At the end, it makes sense to be fairly transparent. The truth has a nice ring to it. Say they
00:44:54
get 24 bucks a share from Comcast or or Netflix, whatever, they basically the
00:44:59
smart thing to do would be to go back and say to the Ellison's at 26 bucks a share by 5:00 p.m. tomorrow it's yours.
00:45:06
You go back and say this is your strike opportunity and then you go back to Comcast and say
00:45:12
they I don't think I when you get to this point I think you pick you pick the person with the deepest pockets and you
00:45:17
go back to them and say in my view it's yours. I think going back and forth at some point, you know, at some point
00:45:23
people are going to tire. I I personally think you get you have a bidding process and then you go back to one and you ask
00:45:30
for a bigger premium and say it's you can take it off the pay table. Let me ask you a question. What is the best what is the best for for these
00:45:36
companies and for Hollywood? What would be the best owner away from the price? And I understand price is all that
00:45:42
matters in the end. But from your analysis, if all things being equal, what which they aren't always, which
00:45:49
owner is the best owner for these properties? So I'm not thinking about it in terms of who would do the best job with the
00:45:55
assets. I think of it as who creates the most robust ecosystem because I wouldn't want like you know I love Ted
00:46:02
Sandos. I think he's the brightest guy in media quite frankly and also I think
00:46:07
the most I don't know great team. Yeah, just I I they they're just a management team
00:46:14
that that just consistently performs and I would love weaknesses in terms of not enough
00:46:20
content. But I wouldn't want to see Netflix own this, right? Because I the two biggest streamers
00:46:26
right now are Netflix and Alphabet. Yeah. And I would like to see a viable third
00:46:31
competitor. Ne uh YouTube has approximately 11 and a half% of the streaming market. Netflix has eight or
00:46:36
nine. I'd like to see another player at seven that could go toe-to-toe with the other two. Isn't it Disney or this?
00:46:42
Well, I don't think Disney doesn't have the money to do this. Yeah. Um, so I would argue that it's it's either
00:46:49
Comcast and in a weird way, I think Paramount bulking up with Netflix money would be good for the ecosystem because
00:46:54
when you have too much concentration of power with Netflix money, I'm sorry, with with Ellison money. Ellison money. Yeah. Paramount, right?
00:47:02
So yeah, that gives them bulk. they become a formidable competitor because when you have a lack of competitors what
00:47:07
effectively happens is the and this is what's you could describe what's happened in the US economy there's a
00:47:13
transfer of wealth from labor to capital and there's been too much transfer of wealth from labor to capital there's too
00:47:20
many people there's there's too many people with not a lot of pricing power and share share earnings is a percentage
00:47:28
of the economy corporate profits have never been higher wages have been somewhat stagnant that means there's too
00:47:34
concentration of power among the buyers of labor. So what do you want? You want a diverse ecosystem with a lot of
00:47:41
competition, constantly trying to figure out a way to lower prices to consumers,
00:47:46
constantly trying to figure out a way to spend more of their shareholder money on content, more jobs. I just don't want I
00:47:52
just want to see robust competition. Sure. But this is going to get a buzzsaw from the right everybody else because it
00:47:57
is going to limit the I mean I know they're promising to make as many movies. I don't believe them. Um, and
00:48:02
the second part is to me the best owner is Comcast here for for this stuff and
00:48:07
then to spin off the news. Like, let's stop playing [ __ ] games with this. You know, they don't they first of all,
00:48:13
the Elens are not interested in news. I don't care what they say. Second thing is, as much as they go on and on about
00:48:19
being the tech solution, I have not heard any specifics cuz I've tried to get spec. I'm like, they're like, "We're
00:48:25
going to do a tech blah blah blah blah blah." And I'm like, "Specifically what?" And they're like, "Techah." And
00:48:30
I'm like, "Specifically what?" Like, "Tell me, explain to me." And then they're just like, "Barry Ellison, tech
00:48:36
tech." And I'm like, "Why don't you just make good stuff and like and and sell tickets like do do your business well
00:48:43
like whatever it happens to be." And I I know there are all kinds of synergies with technology backend as I've talked
00:48:49
about. I've interviewed lots of people. But to me, they're they're kind of blowhards at this point and and they're
00:48:56
blowhards. I don't know what else to say. I like a lot of them. I think um I I whatever you think of Jeff Shell, I
00:49:02
think he's quite smart. Um but honestly, I'm like I pref I prefer the Comcast
00:49:07
people, I find Brian Roberts to be an honorable person. I think his team like Donna Langley exquisite taste. Um Mike
00:49:15
Kavanaaugh is if you spend a minute with him, you realize what a smart guy is. I feel like they'd be the best the
00:49:21
smartest owners. I think they did a brilliant job on the Olympics, for example. Speaking of deploying
00:49:27
technology, they're not blah blah blah people. And so I prefer them like they
00:49:32
they can point to the Olympics and say, "This is what we did." Oh, okay. I get it. Okay, good job. Right. And so they
00:49:38
seem to to me to be the best owners. I I think they have to get this, too. I think they think this is existential for
00:49:45
them. So I wouldn't count them out in terms of like being slightly non-economic. I I know they disdain like
00:49:53
the non-economic part of it because they're kind of they're kind of they're not pencil pushers, but they're very
00:49:58
they're very um disciplined financial people. They're not like they don't just
00:50:04
like I want it, daddy. Like I like David Ellison as a person, but he feels like
00:50:10
Verooa saw you know what is what's the remember in Willy Wonka? Mhm. I want it now. Like that's what I feel
00:50:17
like. I'm like, "Daddy, get me that squirrel." like like that's what it feels like. And I and I'm sort of like
00:50:22
I'd like your actual ideas versus your or the idea. This is the last thing as I
00:50:28
was thinking about like oh I'm friends you know the Tom like Tom Cruz is a pal you know why Tom Cruz likes you because
00:50:33
you have money like that's it that's maybe you're a little bit interesting for a rich person but to me I would like
00:50:40
the disciplined quality creators of content here to get this right so that
00:50:46
they have I don't know I guess Paramount could do a good job with it too they both need it that's to me that the most
00:50:54
I would say Paramount needs it most of all and probably will overpay. Um, which he has shown his his proclivity to do.
00:51:01
Comcast is the one I think would be the best owner. And I think Netflix should just go do their thing as much as they
00:51:07
might need this content and just do what they're doing because it seems to be working of how they're doing it. Anyway,
00:51:13
that's my So, let's talk about what each could potentially get from it. Paramount wants the streaming and network business.
00:51:19
combined a Paramount Warner Brothers uh Discovery streaming service would have
00:51:24
about 200 million subscribers, making it giving it parody with Disney, but still behind Netflix at 300 million. Folding
00:51:32
WBD's cable assets would would present a lot of opportunities for cost cutting
00:51:37
and savings as Ellison is already doing with Paramount Properties. It gives them the scale they would need to punch
00:51:43
against the big guys. Netflix, they want access to WBD's premium content,
00:51:48
including live sports. If they absorb premium WB content, you
00:51:53
know, Sopranos, Game of Thrones, The Wire, movie franchises, Harry Potter, yeah, DC Comics,
00:52:00
Netflix could force some subscribers to switch over. WBD also holds rights in various markets
00:52:05
for nearly every sports league, which would basically give Netflix the opportunity to plant a pretty big flag
00:52:10
into live sports, which they don't have right now. Com Comcast wants to try and
00:52:16
quite frankly this would be a defensive move for them. Their stock has been in decline for 5 years. It's lost over half
00:52:22
its value since its peak and the company has seen consistent cable losses and facing intense streaming competition and
00:52:29
they're right now they're thinking we have to take a big swing because if our stock keeps going down we're not going
00:52:34
to have the bat to make a big swing pretty soon. So there it's more of a defensive or a a
00:52:40
existential it's existential for them. What what I just want to point out is that we can talk till the cows come home
00:52:46
about who would be the best owner at the end of the day. The owner is going to be who comes up with one penny
00:52:52
more than the rest of them. So, it's fun to talk about who needs it unless quote unquote the best owner sees
00:53:00
that opportunity and it justifies the highest bid. It doesn't matter who quote unquote the best. That's what I was making the argument is
00:53:06
I think for Comcast this is existential. They have to grab it. They they have to have it if they can afford it because if they
00:53:11
can afford that's it's going to be given that see they're shopping it's the opposite for them. Warner Brothers
00:53:17
Discovery versus 5 years ago is twice as expensive as it was because their stock's been cut
00:53:24
in half. So they're shopping with a credit card. You know I I the analogy I lose use is
00:53:30
we have one of these green light credit cards for our kids and we fill it up based on their allowance or chores
00:53:35
they've done or whatever. The last part is a lie. My kids don't do a [ __ ] thing around the house. Anyways, but I like to pretend I'm imposing some
00:53:41
reasonable parenting on them. I'm not. I'm not. Anyways, but what like I've said, Palunteer,
00:53:48
everything in the world right now is 90% off for Palunteer because their stocks up 10fold,
00:53:54
although it's down recent this week, but go ahead. Well, okay. But it's all relative. Okay.
00:53:59
It's it's it's everything's 80% off. Mhm. For Comcast, everything's twice as
00:54:04
expensive as it was 5 years ago. But quite frankly, Comcast, the Roberts family, they're very smart and they're
00:54:12
disciplined. They're looking at the world and going, "Are we about to become the smallest player and just oversee a
00:54:19
declining ship and this becomes a distressed asset with a bunch of assets that are kind of melting?" So they
00:54:25
they're probably going to have to stretch, but they're probably saying, "Okay,
00:54:31
do we we pro they probably at the end of the day need it more than anyone else."
00:54:37
Right. That's what I was thinking. The Ellison's need bulk and they have the deepest pockets.
00:54:43
Netflix would use this offensively. I think it I don't want to say it'd be game over, but if Netflix got these assets, Jesus Christ, try and stop
00:54:50
Netflix. Yeah, that's true. So, which one do you think is going to get it? I agree with you. I mean, I think one of the things with the Comcast people are like, "How
00:54:58
can they do this?" I'm like, "They're rich." That's all I said. Like, how do you explain it? I go, "They're rich."
00:55:04
And they're like, they go, "Yeah, but I go, they're they want it. They want the they want it now. They want the the the the
00:55:11
um the the the special squirrel. They If I had to bet Mhm. It's even with Ellison's wealth
00:55:19
down from where it was, he's he's still I think now what is he the second or third wealthiest person in the man?
00:55:25
He's going to get it. Yeah. I think his attitude is why the [ __ ] not all in. But but here's the thing. It all this
00:55:33
entire deal all comes down to one thing. How rich does Larry Ellison feel when
00:55:39
David calls at the last and says, "Okay, it's go time. we got to put in our best foot and this is what I think it takes
00:55:45
to get this thing done. And he very might he very may well go, you know, the reason I'm the the wealthiest man in the
00:55:52
world is I have some discipline and some business acumen and this is just too expensive. David, go, you know, go find
00:55:57
other just have fun at Paramount and go to the premiere of, you know, land man and enjoy yourself. Or he says, you know
00:56:04
what? What's another 10 billion? He's a what the [ __ ] kind of guy. He 300.
00:56:09
Remember when he made the Twitter thing? I want a billion. Whatever. Whatever. Yeah. I think that's what he's like.
00:56:16
And these guys typically when they get towards the end of their life and and quite frankly I I get you don't own
00:56:22
money, you rent it. And when you're that old and you're like, okay, why the [ __ ]
00:56:28
not? If I had to bet on anyone, it would be Larry going the banker's call and say
00:56:34
at the end, all right, you're 2450. At 20 at 27, it's a done deal.
00:56:40
I I think I don't know. I think Larry goes, David, all right, fine. Go ahead. Yes. Green
00:56:47
light. Green light. Do it. And we'll be able to get it through faster through the Trump process. Comcast, even though it gave money to
00:56:54
that stupid ballroom, uh, he's disliked by Trump. It's a really interesting point because Zazlav Zazz could say to
00:57:01
his shareholders, "But wait, Comcast was offering 50 cents more." He might be able to say, "We were not as confident
00:57:06
or Netflix, they would be able to close." Close. Yeah. Yeah. But although I think Trump is quite distracted, I think if I
00:57:13
were com I'd go for it. Just go for it. They But they aren't like that. They aren't like that. And and and Larry
00:57:19
Ellison is. That's the issue. By the way, last thing I'd say, nobody cares about the news part. None of them. None
00:57:25
of them. I don't care what they say. Problem. It's a problem for them. They don't care. Just everyone like at
00:57:30
at CNN, all the other places are like, "What do they think about us?" I not at all. Not at all.
00:57:35
Well, the problem around Comcast, their market cap right now is $98 billion.
00:57:40
Yeah. Too small. This is like a bet the ranch freaking if they go for this, this is unless they
00:57:47
do a club deal and immediately sell [ __ ] off or partner with someone. Yeah, they got to do that. I mean, keep in mind right now, uh, Warner Brothers
00:57:54
is at a $57 billion market cap with a $30 billion debt load. That's an enterprise of 87. It's not even really,
00:58:01
if Comcast does this, it's more of a merger than an acquisition. It is. It is. And I got to say, they all
00:58:08
do like I have such regard for Brian Roberts. I know he, you know, it's interesting because he's in a weird way,
00:58:14
you know, his dad gave him his company, right? Um I two people I really I think
00:58:19
he did a lot with the assets his parents gave him. Um and I think Rubert Murdoch did. Those are the ones and we'll time
00:58:26
will tell if David Ellison is the smart of his father. I just going back to NBS. I personally
00:58:31
believe Mhm. like at some point I just want to know. I mean at some point is it 20 years? Is
00:58:38
it 50 years when reporters stop asking questions about the murder of Kosigible? It'll be
00:58:43
interesting to see. I I think a more interesting question would have been rumors are that David Ellison has
00:58:49
approached Saudi sovereign and wealth funds about helping fund the acquisition of Warner Brothers Discovery. How do you
00:58:56
feel about the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia uh having direct influence over the
00:59:02
largest news network in the world? Yeah, they can't they that they can't that to me when I But that's what they're talking about.
00:59:08
Supposedly Ellison's over there looking for that. That'll just that'll be a problem. That'll be I think that'll be a
00:59:14
problem. They're gonna have to use their own [ __ ] money and they've got plenty of it if they want to do it. Um but selling off all I can tell you all all
00:59:22
the people calling me from the news, they don't care. I wonder what Kelsey or Poly Market are saying. I bet if I had to handicap it
00:59:28
right now, I'd put the Ellison's at like 60%. Yeah, 60. Unless Comcast decides
00:59:35
Paramount. We're going for it. Anyway, interesting thing. Interesting. You know, these industries
00:59:41
fun speculation. All right, Scott. One more quick break. We'll be back for predictions.
00:59:47
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more at ms.now. Okay, Scott, let's hear prediction just
01:00:45
for people to know. Um, here I'm going to make a very brief one. New York City Mayor elect Zoran Mdani is meeting with
01:00:51
Trump at the White House when this airs on Friday. Um, I think they're going to get along like peas and carrots. I don't
01:00:57
know why I think that. I think g like Trump has often even though he insults Momy seems to think he did a good job
01:01:05
with the campaign. Um and uh and so uh I I just I just think it might go better
01:01:13
than we think. But we'll see. I I think your instincts are absolutely right. I think it's in both of their
01:01:18
interests. First off, uh Trump is very lookxist and Mandami is a young handsome
01:01:24
man. He's very drawn to these young handsome men. And Mandani
01:01:29
Mandani will come out looking very Mandani can come out and said I I gave
01:01:35
it to him and he said I think they're going to come out and said while we had our differences, we're committed to getting along and this is his native
01:01:41
city. I think they both have mutually vested interest in coming across as statesmanlike.
01:01:47
Uh so I agree with you. I don't think why would they invite him down only to then have more antagonism and [ __ ]
01:01:55
Zalinsky, they could do it. It could happen. Like if if he if here's let me tell you, Mom, Donnie, don't get caught
01:02:01
in a on a couch with JD Vance. That's all. Just don't. He's too savvy. Are they planning to do a joint press or
01:02:07
I don't know. But you never know. Like Gretchen Whitmer got sucked up into that. Like he's got to be very careful
01:02:12
about where they sit him. That's you know they could be trying to like it's a trap like from Star Wars. That's all I'm
01:02:18
saying. Be very careful about how they present you and what they cuz they could pick a fight. That's the other opposite
01:02:24
thing. They could pick a fight, a public fight with I got to think someone in Trump's orbit smart enough to go, you know what? We're fighting a battle on a lot of fronts. I
01:02:31
know. This one's not a good one. And people like this fella. I he he every time Trump insults him, he compliments him.
01:02:37
It's really interesting because he's like, I kind of like the cut of your jib even though you're a communist kind of
01:02:43
thing. Anyway, your prediction? I really do think we're we're on the precipice of
01:02:48
a pretty significant shift in what I'll call the societal structure, control
01:02:54
structure, what the societal order. I think the vibe and the tone that will
01:03:00
become increasingly apparent amongst these billion the quote unquote these billionaires across leaders, business
01:03:05
leaders, I actually think the tone and the vibe is going to have more impact than the
01:03:11
crimes themselves. And I think we're going to see a dramatic
01:03:16
reconfiguration of uh uh Congress's approach to tax policy
01:03:23
and how uh I I I think this is a big moment and I think I'm now increasingly
01:03:29
believing that the Democrats are supposed to take back the House. I think they're going to take it back viciously.
01:03:35
I think this is going to feel like the Republican wave under Gingri.
01:03:41
Uh, I think this is going to be pretty severe and I think we're going to see and unfortunately the, you know, the the
01:03:48
whatever is the chime or the pendulum on the clock is never you can never visually see it at exactly the median. I
01:03:54
think we're going to see uh I don't think they'll go through, but I think you'll see proposals for wealth taxes
01:04:00
similar to the ones that's been proposed in California. I think you're going to see a dramatic shift back.
01:04:07
I would agree with you to progressives because when you read these emails, you're like, "Wow, these
01:04:13
guys, they really have become Maria Antuinette with with with, you know,
01:04:18
with blazers. They wear cashmere hoodies, whatever it is." Yeah. Khakis, cashmere hoodies.
01:04:23
But this I think the vibe of these emails is really unsettling. And I think it's it's going to it's it's
01:04:30
going to accelerate a decline or accelerate a pretty serious move to I
01:04:37
don't you know call them progressive policies, call them what you want. This is going to this is I think we're at a
01:04:43
pretty pivotal moment and it's more about the culture and the vibe than the specific crimes. Yeah. I think what I think what you're
01:04:49
talking about I don't if I think if Demar were smart they'd call it common sense and decency. Like if they just
01:04:54
kind of do that, it's such a because Trump seems not common sense and not and
01:05:00
indecent. It just is a Anyway, that's my feel like common sense and decent. Common sense and decency. I like that. I
01:05:06
agree with you. It's a Marie. You must have had some interesting dinners in Los Angeles. That's what it sounds like. You'd be so proud of me. I What did you
01:05:12
do? We had this dinner. Mhm. They invited uh uh Matt, one of these
01:05:17
people we talk about all the time on this show, and they said, "It would be okay if we invited so and so and his
01:05:23
girlfriend." I'm like, "No, I don't want to meet them." I talk about them all the time, and I
01:05:28
don't want to meet them because this is what happens. I meet them and I like them and I stop speaking in an unfiltered way. Yeah. Good. Can you tell me who that
01:05:35
was? You Nope. All right. You'll tell me later. Anyway, um uh uh we want to hear your questions.
01:05:42
That's a really good That's a really interesting way you're going there, Scott. I like it. Um, send us your
01:05:47
questions about business tech or whatever is on your mind. Go to nymag.com/pivot. Send a question for the show. Call 85551
01:05:53
pivot. Okay, that's the show. Thanks for listening to Pivot and be sure to like and subscribe to our YouTube channel.
01:05:59
We'll be back next week. Scott, read us out. Today's show is produced by Larara Nean,
01:06:04
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