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She thinks this is her town. Hello.
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It's hello men for you. Scott. Scott. It's hello men for you.
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Get the city right.
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[Applause] [Music] I've only listened to you all. I didn't
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know that there was visuals involved in this podcast. [Music]
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Hi everyone, live from the Sydney Goldstein Theater in San Francisco, the
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best city on earth.
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Oh,
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I just got a loud environment notification from Apple. All right. Um, I'm Cara Swisser
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and I'm Scott Galloway. Uh, before we start, I want to send a big thank you to our sponsors, ODU and
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Upwork. Please again uh give a round of applause for tonight's special guest, Mayor Daniel Lurri.
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So, the mayor has a short time here, but we've got a couple of questions. So,
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let's start off with an easy topic. The housing affordability crisis here in San Francisco.
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The city has an estimated 830,000 people living uh on about seven square miles.
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San Francisco residential rents have risen the most in the nation over the past year with apartment prices in the city jumping about 6% in that time.
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Average rent for a San Francisco apartment is $3,315 a month which makes it the second
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highest in the country behind New York City is 3360 3360. You've proposed taller buildings
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and denser zoning. Critics have responded by calling you a gentrifier and Republican. Talk about which one of
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those criticisms offends you more. probably today with Epstein probably Republican.
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Anyway, talk about the So, we we have a a state mandate imposed
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on all 58 counties in San in the state of California. Uh we've responded by
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putting forth what we call our family zoning plan, density along our commercial corridors, uh and making sure
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that we allow the next generation of San Franciscans to have an opportunity to stay and live here. Um and it's on the
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high resourced neighborhoods, the north and west side of town. Uh parts of our city have not been reszoned for 50
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years. Um we need to build more housing. We need to build it along transit
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corridors and along commercial corridors. And that's what we're focused on. And we've made a lot of amendments
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and we're working with our board of supervisors, which is our city council here in San Francisco. And we're almost
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at the finish line on it. And we want to be a a city that does it our way and not
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the Sacramento way. And so this family zoning is going to help us increase density in our city in the coming years.
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Scott. All right. One of the signs though, one of the signs of San Francisco's hospital
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hospitality recovery, Blackstone is nearing $130 million deal to acquire the Four Seasons Hotel. City o hotel
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occupancy has rebounded 70% up from below 50% in 2021. However, um there's
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discounts going on. What is what talk a little bit about what's happening commercially for the city? Um which got attacked by Fox News. You can boo. Um
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but but talk a little bit about it feels as if to me I'm seeing a lot more
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business generation. I'm seeing a lot more return. This city is on the rise. There's just no question about it.
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All the all the crime data is going in the right direction. We're down 30% year-over-year in terms of crime. We're
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down 40% in Union Square and our downtown area. Our local law enforcement
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is doing incredible work. We're using drones as a first responder. Uh we're
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using license plate readers. When you commit a crime in San Francisco now, you're getting caught. And I think
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public safety has to be our number one priority. It it has been from day one.
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And I think uh the small business community, our restaurants, our bars, they're seeing that. And I think big
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business. You had John Gray of Blackstone running along uh the wararf fisherman's wararf two weeks ago saying
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buy San Francisco real estate. I mean if that isn't a good sign uh retail space
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we got Nintendo, we got Zara, we got Uniqlo that uh left four years ago is
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reinvesting at Fourth and Mission. these major retailers, they're coming back to
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San Francisco because they know what we all know here in San Francisco and that we are indeed a city on the rise. We're
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the home of AI. It's all happening in San Francisco. It's not happening in Silicon Valley. It's happening in San
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Francisco. But let me ask you because a lot of the blame for the affordability crisis is going to the tech industry which you
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wanted to come back. Now that but that you're bringing that up but that that's what we said five six
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years ago. That's correct. That's correct. Okay. So that's an that's like a narrative and if we don't build more housing, it will get
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that way again. Absolutely. But a lot of these companies of course famously left and kicked San
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Francisco on the way out. And I actually ran into one of the people that did that in a beautiful bakery here. And I said
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and I walked up to him. I said, "Get the [ __ ] out of here." Like you can't have our bread. like they were they're back
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and they're and AI of course has led that and companies like open a and anthropic. Um how do you entice
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companies and also we we have other companies like ELF and many others who have stuck with San Francisco. So yay
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there's the elf people um what we don't want to give up too much
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to these people. No we we want them to be invested in San Francisco. So, I say public safety. We
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have to get our behavioral health crisis under control, which we're working on every single day. And then third, I want
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everybody to know that San Francisco is open for business. We're stripping away red tape. We're cutting bureaucracy. But
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then my demand is that you as a company be engaged in our public schools, be
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engaged in our arts and culture institutions, which they there was a lot
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left lacking as you and I talked about for years. Um, and I worked hard on it when I was running TippingPoint, and
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you'd see some good people, but I'm seeing more. We started something, uh,
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Scott, we started something called the Partnership for San Francisco, modeled after what New York City did in the
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1970s when New York was really hit hard. We now have 35 business leaders that are
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homebased here or live here in San Francisco recommitting or committing to
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our city and helping not only revive us. They'll be part of San Francisco because mostly they seem like takers to me the
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last time and and I'm I'm only interacting with those that will make sure that they commit once again to funding MUN. Uh we
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have to make sure public transit is topnotch in San Francisco, that our arts and culture institutions are supported,
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that our public schools are supported. Uh we started something uh Manny who's backstage, he and I started something
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called the Civic Joy Fund a few years ago where we're doing trash pickups across this city. This city, we no one's
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coming to save San Francisco except for San Franciscans. And I want those companies engaged. I want them involved.
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and they will be and and we're demanding that of them. But we also need to entice
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people back because I want that revenue here. I want our public schools getting more of those tax dollars. And so I
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think it is a give and take and they need to give more than they did in the 2010s. Absolutely. Scott.
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Well, just on an interpersonal basis, I've always been struck by, and I want to be clear, this is pure pandering, the
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but I've always been struck by all of these people who um, for lack of a
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better term, [ __ ] post San Francisco. These tech brothers, these people have more options than anywhere in the world,
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anyone in the world, and yet they all decide to stay in this hellscape. um when you interact with these folks
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like what what's the what's the vibe? I it's
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are they constantly saying what do they what is the ask to you as they threaten to leave every day and don't what what
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when they meet with you and say it's awful here and I could go anywhere in the world but I'm going to stay
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what what does the convers but go ahead
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Mark we'll get to him is not fair that's not fair Mark is far from the
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worst just to be clear Yeah. And for your listeners out there that don't know me, I'm 10 months into this
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job. I had never been in politics before. Um I ran because I saw our city
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going in the wrong direction and I couldn't sit on the sidelines and just uh you know complain. I wanted to get
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into the action. And so it's been a different conversation over the last year and a half. We got caught
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flatfooted by the fentanyl crisis. uh we uh did not protect families and and kids
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going and taking MUN to school. There's people smoking fentanyl and we were just like that's okay. So I saw some of our
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challenges up close and personal walking my kids to school and and and so the
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conversation I've had over the past year with these people is um I'm fixing it. I
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want you here, but you better help help me fix it, too. And so I don't I haven't heard what does that mean? How do they help
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you fix it? What's the ask? The ask is uh when you come back to work, be in the
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office five days a week. Uh don't necessarily just have your kitchens and your cafeterias inside. Go shop at the
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local businesses. Uh like get out, fund public transit. Uh because your
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employees take transit here rather than special buses then. Yeah, that's right. So u my ask is
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it's that that conversation that you're talking about it was you know four or five years and what we all know the
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answer to this is is when San Francisco is at its best this is the greatest city
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in the world it's the most beautiful city in the world it's got the most innovative ecosystem in the world we got
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Stanford we got cow we got UCSF right here we got open AI we got anthropic we
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got a new company that uh called cursor I mean we have carrot You guys know
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this, like every city that you've stopped in, six straight, they would die
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to have one of those companies in their city. We have them all and they better get involved in our community. And
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that's my ask of them. So, uh, just a couple more questions. Last month, you talked President Trump out of sending a surge of federal troops
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here to Hellscape. Um Trump
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Trump says he backed off because you quote asked very nicely what is wrong with him. A lot of big tech guys reached
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out to him on your behalf which I think is fine but horrible that this is the way it goes. It's like it's an oligarchy
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if that's the case of the rich guys have to do this. Jensen Wong and Sam Alman. Very different strategy than Gavin
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Newsome's. But talk about that. Like what is is does it still hang over your
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head? Does it like could he still threaten you if he decides? Well, let me just tell you what what I
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said to him, which is that this is the greatest city in the world when our when we are at our best. Our local law
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enforcement is crushing it when it comes to driving crime down. We are the
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innovative ecosystem of the world. I think what happens in places like DC is they have this old narrative of San
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Francisco. Um just like the conversation with some of these tech people that were leaving, but you walk through I walk
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through the ferry building today, every place is leased out in that building. It's got amazing food. You walk through
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North Beach, it's packed right now. The I mean every neighborhood in San Francisco, the sunset is doing
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incredibly well. And so we just have to my conversation uh with him was telling
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him what is actually happening here in San Francisco. Is it God you have to suck up to that guy. I mean honestly I couldn't be
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mayor. I'm so glad I didn't run. I just have to there was just it was just facts. Um is what I said and it was
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straight facts. Yeah. Do you expect what'll you do if they decide to he decides he needs to
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get out of say the Epstein situation and decides to distract people? I I I can
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So, this is a question. You and I have talked about this. I am the mayor of San Francisco and it's first off, I love my
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job. Uh second off, this city is so incredibly important and special. Um
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that I just stay focused on what I can control. I cannot control what's going on in DC. I can't control what's going
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on in Sacramento. People ask me questions about different things happening around this country. I'm like,
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I can control public safety in San Francisco. I can work hard to tackle this fentanyl crisis and we can make
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life easier for our small business owners. We can build more housing. We can fund public transit. I can't I'm I'm
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only 10 months into this job. The idea that I could control anything outside of San Francisco. And you know, you can't
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necessarily control what's going on in your own city. So, I just relentlessly stay focused on what I can control.
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Well, God save you for that one. So, I have one last question and Scott might, but San Francisco is a major hub for
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auton a hub for uh autonomous vehicles with companies like Whimo and Cruise operating driverless taxi services. I've
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been riding them for years. Not Cruz. Cruise is out. Sorry. Um that's right. They had some issues
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issues. Um but Whimo just announced it's going to start offering driverless rides to freeways here in San Francisco as
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well as Phoenix and Los Angeles. I've been driving in Whimos for years actually. I'm a I'm a fan. And I know
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not everybody is, but Uber is uh is in a robo taxi testing phase here and plans to roll out a service late next year. Um
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twothirds of San Franciscans now support autonomous vehicles, but critics says say they're entrenching car dependent
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infrastructure. Safety concerns obviously recent a Whimo struck and killed a beloved San Francisco cat named
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KitKat in the Mission District. Um uh so talk about this idea of balancing
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innovation with the city's first transit policy and climate goals because I mean I know Gavin Newsome had to deal with
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the Google founders trying to put a chairlift in San Francisco up the hills if you remember. I remember that. Listen, I think we're
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going to always be on the leading edge here in San Francisco. I always want us to be on that. I I think we put guard
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rails in place. We make sure safety is forefront. It's this is state regulations as you know. Um, and I think
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Whimo is incredibly safe and they're doing really great work. And I don't think that means that you can't uh go
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allin on transit and you can't go all in on making sure that people that are walking and biking and and and driving
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all feel safe. Like I don't think it's an eitheror. Uh, Whimo is has been in
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it's incredibly popular for our tourists. And as you said, like twothirds or more of the city now
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understands that it's safer than you or I getting behind a wheel. Yeah. I just had a biker get in front of
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the Whimo and all the pe humans drove around it like a crazy person. But the Whimo was behind it for hours
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and I at first I was like you [ __ ] And I'm like ah it's San Francisco. It's fine. It's fine. But last question for
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you. What what isn't working? What do you think is presenting a bigger challenge than you hadn't uh than you'd
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anticipated? Scott, I think the pace of change just just it I'm constantly frustrated. I'm
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constantly wanting us to go faster, but I I will close with this because, you know, one thing that I'm really proud of
00:16:02
that we did as a city is that uh with this government shutdown, we were able to get uh and cover the 112,000 San
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Franciscans that were going to go missing from food from their food stamps. and
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uh and we we uh moved heaven and earth.
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And from the time we said go uh and we got we put $9 million in and Crankstart
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Foundation put $9 million in and we had a press conference on the city hall steps and we said we got you San
00:16:35
Franciscans. 7 days from start to the time we put in the mail um access to
00:16:41
gift cards for people. We got it done in seven days. It was it reminded me that
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when government is at its best and when it wants to work, it can, but too often
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it takes so long and the people deserve faster bureauc you know faster
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government and and that's what we're trying to do every day here in San Francisco. All right. All right, Mayor Larry, thank
00:17:04
you so much. We'll let you get back to work. Good to see you. Always.
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Um, let's have another round of applause for Mayor Lurri. All right.
00:17:24
Okay. We need to take a quick break. When we come back, we'll get to some of the latest headlines.
00:17:30
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00:19:46
Scott, we're back. See how that worked? Incredible. Um, that was an interlude
00:19:51
there. Um, we're taping this on Thursday when stocks are having the worst day in a month, taking a massive dive in the
00:19:58
wake of the record six-week government shut uh shutdown. The S&P fell around 1.6%, the Dow dropped 800 points, the
00:20:05
Nasdaq about 2.3%. Tech and AI stocks got hammered. Something you and I have
00:20:11
been talking about these past seven days in our togetherness week. Um, Nvidia,
00:20:16
Broadcom, Alphabet all slid on valuation of Meta. Disney crashed on disappointing
00:20:21
earnings. Um markets also soured on a chance of December Fed uh rate cut dropping. So talk about this AI. People
00:20:29
have been sort of talking about it incessantly. Um Michael Bur, famous short seller uh has been talking about
00:20:35
it a lot. Um so is it because the AI earnings don't support valuations or is
00:20:41
it a healthy reset? Yes. Okay. Yeah. So, look, America could best
00:20:48
be described right now as just a giant bet on AI. It's hard to imagine a period maybe back when with the railroads where
00:20:55
our economy has been this dependent on a small number of companies. You have 10 companies that now represent 40% of the
00:21:02
S&P by market value, which represents 20% of global value. If these companies sneeze, the whole world is probably
00:21:08
catching pneumonia. And if you look at the multiples historically, the Schiller
00:21:14
index, which looks at the PE ratios on an inflation adjusted basis,
00:21:20
it is higher than it's been since they've been tracking it uh for 99% of the time. And it's in the top 1% right
00:21:26
now of periods in terms of an index. The Buffett index, which measures market cap as a percentage of GDP, typically trades
00:21:34
around 85%. It's trading at 220%. So, and I want to be clear, when
00:21:41
quoteunquote people like myself are convinced something's about to crash, that means it's usually about to skyrocket and then I throw the towel in
00:21:48
and then it crashes. So, I'm having This is Tesla with Scott. I'm having PTSD because I was here from
00:21:55
I went to uh I graduated from the high school of business. I lived in San Francisco from
00:22:01
um uh from 1992 to 2000. Started two companies, Profit and Red Envelope. And
00:22:07
uh I remember in 1997 thinking everyone, the economist, everyone, Wall Street
00:22:13
Journal, all the the smartest people, Julian Robertson, all these incredibly smart investors said the do they
00:22:20
perfectly called how the dot bubble would unwind. First it would be B TOC, then it would be B2B, and then it would
00:22:26
go to the infrastructure guys, the plays. Everyone was like, well, it's not B TOC, go to B2B, and then go to Cisco.
00:22:32
and Cisco and Amazon lost 90% of their value from um 1999 to 2001. But the
00:22:39
people who called it in 1997, the NASDAQ doubled from that point, but what you have is so frightening because quite
00:22:45
frankly, the string that might get pulled by some of the companies that are headquartered here, I mean, I I'd like
00:22:51
to give the mayor some talking points. In the last in the last 5 years, as much as People's Ship Post California,
00:22:57
there's been more wealth created in a 7mi radius of SFO International Airport than in all of Europe in the last 20
00:23:02
years. I mean, it's it's striking how much value has been created here. But
00:23:09
the string that might get pulled here is just so extraordinary. And I think it goes something like this. A large
00:23:14
company announces that they're scaling back their investments in LLM. a large non- tech company
00:23:20
a large Pepsico or Toyota says look on their earnings call we made this enormous investment in site
00:23:26
licenses from you know open AI orthropic and it's just not showing any ROI or
00:23:33
it's not showing the ROI we had anticipated we're scaling back and it's not open AI that could take in my
00:23:38
opinion the market down it's open AI which is the front the helm of the bobsled and then the company that could
00:23:44
take the global economy down right now is one that is worth more than the entire German stock market and that is Nvidia and that is this company is worth
00:23:52
$5 trillion. Take take every company publicly listed company in Germany and half the
00:23:58
companies publicly listed in France. That's what Nvidia is worth. And so
00:24:03
there is no soft landing. And if Nvidia got cut by 60 to 80 got cut by 60 to
00:24:10
80%. It still might not look cheap. And if you lose $2 trillion in market cap
00:24:16
from the S&P, there's just nowhere to hide. Right? Because the other companies are are the ones that are suffering from
00:24:21
this this was it magnificent 7 or 10 is that they're they didn't get affected by tariffs. They didn't get affected by all
00:24:28
kinds of things. But the president So this is the dark side of the runup here. And that is I
00:24:33
believe that AI has without these 10 companies the market the S&P would be
00:24:40
flat possibly down and we'd already be in a recession and GDP would be negative. And quite frankly, and you
00:24:45
never know where externalities are going to come from, I don't think the president would have cloud cover to be sending mass secret service or secret
00:24:52
police into cities if the market was down 2%. Because of the idolatry of the dollar and our obsession with wealth and
00:24:58
innovators in this country as long as the markets are up, most damaging metrics in history are the S&P and the
00:25:04
NASDAQ because they give the illusion of prosperity. They are not the mainstream economy. And also when the markets are
00:25:10
up 16% and as of this morning 14%. It gives cloud cover for the administration
00:25:15
to kind of do whatever they want because everyone's like well as long as the market's up they must be doing something right and I'll forgive them. So what
00:25:21
you're going to see I believe is a series of nonsensical crony autocratic
00:25:27
um financings where they back debt to buy more chips and create these circular
00:25:32
deals. the government because we've been talking about the Scott and I lived through the first internet part which it
00:25:38
was this there's a company called Purchase Pro and it was like a that was one of them but there was all this
00:25:43
roundtpping where the same $5 would go from AOL would invest and then they would spend on AOL and etc.
00:25:50
Nvidia invests you know 300 billion wasn't it? No. Well, right now
00:25:55
100 billion right now invid So Nvidia invests billions of dollars in OpenAI in
00:26:00
exchange for them buying Nvidia chips. That's a related party transaction. There were a ton of them going on in the late 90s. We were all buying each
00:26:06
other's crappy software. And then when we realized that consumers weren't showing up at the level we'd anticipated
00:26:12
for the great world of e-commerce, the whole thing, the downward spiral, I mean these deals just feel very latestage '
00:26:20
90s. It is different this time because the these are real companies with real earnings growth. But when you're when
00:26:25
you're open AI committing to $1.2 trillion in spend on 12 billion in revenues and by the way
00:26:32
I'd love to see the actual legal language behind these commitments to buy 300 billion in compute from Oracle
00:26:39
because there's no way they're not they're not going to have an out. I think a lot of this is marketing. I
00:26:45
think saying I need 40 nuclear power plants and I'm gonna buy 300 billion in compute is saying Jesus you should see
00:26:51
the size of my dick. You haven't seen it, but just wait. I am so confident in my
00:26:58
business that I'm going to commit to a $300 billion deal. I bet this deal, similar to a tariff deal, is a quote
00:27:04
unquote framework and it's marketing saying I know more than you and these huge deals, they're trying to scare away
00:27:10
competitors. So, so one of the things when you have these kind of deals, it does create this froth and even as you
00:27:16
said these are companies with actual customers certainly open has many others but it creates this it it so reminds you
00:27:24
of the dotcom thing except in the dot time period to start a company was inexpensive and there were lots of them
00:27:31
right it was relatively inexpensive to start something up and gin it up comparatively right now you need data
00:27:37
centers you need energy you need water the amount of money spent on real things that they're spending on or committing
00:27:43
to. They just announced something in Wisconsin, in Louisiana. Meta did, etc. Now, Meta has plenty of cash because
00:27:49
they make a lot of money through advertising right now. Um, at some point it's going to be good for maybe one,
00:27:56
possibly two players and everyone else is I assume it's going to be [ __ ] out of luck in this scenario. It's not going to
00:28:02
be lots of companies. So I I have a different view on this and that is because the majority of the people
00:28:08
running these companies are under the age of 45. They don't remember airlines, vaccines or PCs. And that is the I think
00:28:16
the greatest innovation in history other than the American middle class is vaccines. It saves millions of people's lives every year. And
00:28:25
by the way, if you don't believe that your head is so up so far up your ass, I
00:28:30
can't save you. But the and I would imagine almost everybody here believes that. But we have come to believe that
00:28:37
any huge tectonic innovation from technology can be sequestered by a small number of companies who create IP modes,
00:28:44
create distribution modes, brand modes such that they can accrete trillions of dollars in value or hundreds of billions
00:28:49
to shareholders. There is no technology that changed my life more than the ability to get in a plane and skirt the
00:28:55
surface out of the atmosphere at 810 the speed of sound. That is just such an unbelievable unlock. It took my parents 7 days crawling across the Atlantic and
00:29:02
6 months salary to get to America. People to get to San Francisco 150 years
00:29:08
ago used to have to stop and eat their nephews and nieces on the way. I mean the but guess what? As of today, as of
00:29:15
today, if you add it up all the profits and losses of the airline manufacturing industry and airlines, it's at break
00:29:21
even. Vaccines, no one's made a lot of money from vaccines. Moderna stock is down 90%. And I was on the board of
00:29:27
Gateway Computer, which I realized is almost as weak of flex as you saying, I've been taking Whimos forever.
00:29:32
And [Applause] Scott last night, look, Whimos, as we
00:29:40
were driving in, I'm like, check that [ __ ] out. Check it out. Oh my god. So I could masturbate in the
00:29:46
back and no one would care. Anyway, that was even awkward for me. Um, did you do that today? Is that what you
00:29:52
did today when you're away from me? Don't rag on my hobbies. Okay. Anyway, so
00:30:00
vaccines, PCs, we put a supercomputer in everyone's on everyone's desk that cost $30 million is 15 years prior. The
00:30:07
entire PC industry has been a [ __ ] show. What I was saying with Gateway Computer, we had we were the second largest computer manufacturer in the world. We
00:30:13
sold the company for $700 million, which is what Google loses or makes in about three minutes in a trading day. My
00:30:19
thesis is the following. that the ability to reverse engineer other LLMs
00:30:24
because of AI. And the second factor, the CCP is so sick of this idiot [ __ ]
00:30:29
with them that they have said the easiest way to go for the jugular in America is to do in the 80s what they
00:30:35
did with steel when they started dumping steel into America. I believe China right now is planning to dump massive AI
00:30:42
LLMs at a fraction of the cost, a fraction of the energy consumption. It's going to take these companies down and
00:30:47
really [ __ ] with our economy. That's what I would do if I were she. to one. I don't I think we're going to be the
00:30:52
winners here, just as we were the winners from airlines, PCs, and vaccines,
00:30:57
but I don't think a small number of companies are going to be able to sequester the kind of value we are anticipating. So, in some I think we're
00:31:05
going to win as a society, but the markets I think are about to get an absolute shitkicking as the string gets
00:31:11
pulled by on these small number of companies which we have become way too dependent upon. Because if I'm in China,
00:31:17
I'm like, I really would like to [ __ ] with this guy. I am going to dump so many cheap LLMs and AI into the
00:31:23
ecosystem that these guys won't be able to support have any sort of pricing power. Yeah, very I agree with you on this.
00:31:29
This is it's a really problematic. You start to see it in including just this today. Um they used AI to do a hack for
00:31:36
the first time, a fully AI powered hack, which was there's all kinds of things the CCP can do to hurt us. And
00:31:42
meanwhile, they spent a lot of time kissing up to Trump in order to get things, you know, doing the X or me
00:31:49
argument that we talked about. Um, but let's move on um to the latest Epstein news. The lawyer that got Maxwell
00:31:55
transferred to a minimum security prison has egg on his face today and much more. In a Twitter spat with George Conway,
00:32:02
deputy AG uh Todd Blanch seemed to admit that Wednesday's Epstein document dump
00:32:07
undermined the interview he had with Maxwell pre-transfer. And interview is doing a lot of work in that sentence
00:32:14
right there. The transfer looked even worse after Wednesday's document dump showed that Trump and Epstein were
00:32:19
tighter than people thought. Um Scott, do you think she'll have to go back to the old prison? Let's I'd say a hole
00:32:25
down at the bottom of the ocean would work for me, but thoughts he did. admitted he didn't know the things.
00:32:31
Although the go the Justice Department has all these has has 10 times more
00:32:37
documents. I think the media So what I don't like about Democrats is
00:32:43
that and I consider myself a proud progressive but I think often times we get caught grasping for a virtue pen or
00:32:52
pin as opposed to really focusing on what impacts the material and psychological well-being of more
00:32:57
Americans. I I I hope Gilain Maxwell dies in prison, but I don't really care.
00:33:03
I don't I think the more important thing that impacts people is we have bastardized, perverted, and ruined a
00:33:09
very important process of our justice system, which is clemency and pardons. And there are really talented people who
00:33:17
are there are people because of things like three strikes because of of incompetent
00:33:24
representation because of a mental illness. There are just there are a lot of people who are imprisoned and then
00:33:31
there's great work done to uncover DNA testing that finds out that they're in fact innocent of the crimes or that
00:33:38
they're spending life in prison because they stole an an antenna out of a Kmart.
00:33:45
And this whole process is an incredibly important process and it has been
00:33:50
totally perverted by this notion that essentially in America we've monetized
00:33:56
healthcare in in Europe healthcare is about trying to keep people healthy. Here it's about trying to figure out a
00:34:02
way to make the pharmaceutical and the obesity industrial complex profitable. We have monetized health care in this
00:34:08
country. It's the best place in the world to be sick if you're in the top 10%. It's one of the worst places to be in the bottom 90. We paid double per
00:34:15
capita for healthcare to be more anxious, depressed, obese, and die sooner. And now, who would have thunk
00:34:21
it? We're monetizing the pardon and clemency process. Oh, this is this is not a surprise. This
00:34:27
is a coin operated. Well, that's my point. You know, I I agree. I mean, it's one of the problems that we have here though is
00:34:33
that is the is the relentless lying. And obviously I you at the time when Epstein
00:34:38
first when Elon first tweeted the Epstein thing remember you were like oh
00:34:44
and I I said uhoh cuz I I saw that I get this sense I was wrong and you were right. I don't know where this is going.
00:34:49
That is correct. Whenever we revisit history it ends with and I was right. Well I was you like
00:34:55
the new biography from Cara Swisser and dot dot dot I was right. But the the thing is I was right.
00:35:04
So, but he did he slopped it off and you was said it's not I said this Epstein thing is going to blow up like a Roman
00:35:10
[ __ ] candle. I said it wasn't. Yes, you did. Um but he threat Elon when he threatened to ruin Trump. He he put a
00:35:18
tweet out when he was on his way out of Doge when Doge um you know he he he saw
00:35:24
the files is what I thought and he made veiled threats but then he took it down when he realized he went too far. But
00:35:29
when he put that up I went, "Oh, Eli, I know what you're up to." because he knew. And so it's become this phenomena.
00:35:36
I think it's a problem for Trump. It looks like much of the House and the Senate are going to let this thing go
00:35:42
through this um uh the release the Epstein files. It looks like it right now. Um so let me finish. The release of
00:35:48
the documents right now though is such an online phenomena. It's crazy. It already was with the QAnon gang, but now
00:35:55
everyone's participating in it at this point. Um, so, um, talk talk about
00:36:01
what's happening here because the the the the the the just what's been released now is crazy and problematic
00:36:09
for the president obviously and I think he hasn't uh he hasn't had a had an
00:36:14
eruption in all day. You haven't JD Vance is gone. I don't know where he went. He usually gets on and gets all
00:36:20
mad about things and, you know, sits on a couch, etc. Um, and he has not been
00:36:26
avail I I don't think he [ __ ] a couch, everyone. I think I I don't I don't
00:36:32
think he [ __ ] a couch, but the fact of the matter is I think he could. See, that's that's where I feel about him,
00:36:38
right? I like, yeah, sure, he'd [ __ ] a couch, right? But I don't think he necessarily did. I don't care. It's San
00:36:44
Francisco. I'm glad we cleared that up. You know what? It's San Francisco. This is great alternative media.
00:36:50
Okay. All right. What do you what do you imagine the repercussions? Because if there is if this starts to really slide
00:36:56
and it has that feeling of slide be especially because it's now we don't
00:37:02
have to believe everything Jeffrey Epstein that heinous monster said but it had the it has the the feel of something
00:37:09
sort of latestage Trump for some reason to me and I think a lot like you saw um Louisiana senator the John Kennedy who
00:37:17
pretends he's like fogghorn legghorn but um but he said he's like well I think I
00:37:23
should you know I'm going to vote for this thing and I don't care if I get a sombrero. Like I was like, which is I
00:37:28
thought at first, oh, he's so racist. But then I realized Trump put a sombrero on Hakeem Jeffy's head. So anyway, my
00:37:35
point being, what do you think the um couch [ __ ] Epste files? What do you
00:37:42
What do you think is happening here? Do you think we're going to reheat your soup for you? You're fine.
00:37:48
What do you think is going to I feel like a QAnon person, but do you um what do you think is going to happen here and
00:37:55
the strategery it out for us? So the the reality is and you've pointed
00:38:01
this out. I think I'm better than your average bear at predicting business outcomes. I'm worse than your average
00:38:08
person at I would have thought that we crossed about eight I I would have
00:38:14
thought launching a memecoin the Friday before your inauguration where people could billions of dollars into essentially a Swiss banking account that
00:38:21
that you then monet there's been so many red the orgy of corruption here has been
00:38:26
so extraordinary taking a plane from a Gulf state I just I always thought oh this is it this is the red line and so I
00:38:33
don't know if this is the red line the thing I can't figure out though or so
00:38:38
supposedly every morning on his calendar he has quote unquote executive time where he just watches Fox News and hangs
00:38:44
out, right? And what I imagine is he meets with his decorator for the East Wing and then he meets with his comm's
00:38:50
consultant talking about the Epstein files. And I think it goes something like this. Decorator comes in mood board
00:38:56
and you're like, I want it to look like the best [ __ ] house in Iraq. I think that's and two he says to his comms
00:39:02
person around Epstein, I just want to look so [ __ ] guilty. Just I want to
00:39:08
look like I want everything I do, my body language, everything I say, I just want to convince people I'm guilty
00:39:15
because there's been a lot of people who've gone to the island and they've come out and they've said, "Huge error in judgment. Um, I shouldn't have been
00:39:22
down there. I shouldn't have cohorted with this guy. It was really stupid." And people have forgiven Trump for so
00:39:29
much more than that. For him to be this panicked, it just looks and smells and
00:39:36
feels like there's something really ugly here. And typically with a crime, it's
00:39:43
not it's not the crime itself that you get in trouble for. It's the cover up. Right? Martha Stewart wouldn't have gone
00:39:49
to prison if she said, "Yeah, I traded in on insider information. I didn't know what I was doing. I'm really sorry." It
00:39:54
was her lying and trying to cover up. Americans actually, although I don't think they'd forgive him for this, but
00:40:00
in general, Americans like to forgive. What they hate is people who won't come clean. So, I don't and his body language
00:40:07
is so extraordinary. I wonder if this is the event, the kind of singularity or
00:40:14
the apex kind of predator and that is people start fleeing from him. But I
00:40:19
have the polling numbers including especially with Republicans actually the Republican numbers are down and then all
00:40:25
of a sudden all his defenders are now trashing him which is interesting to watch. Who but who is that? I mean other than
00:40:31
Mason I don't cat turd etc. Those people they are they're starting to really the thing
00:40:36
they're most mad about is him insulting American workers over Chinese workers.
00:40:41
It's just so I I I mean they're not mad about pedophiles. They're mad about American workers.
00:40:48
Whatever. They're mad. What? I'll put it back to you because I have been just so wrong on this for so long. What What I thought
00:40:54
I think I do think this is it. I Because I do. And when you say it, what happens?
00:40:59
Well, I think more will be I think he can he can it may not get I think if it pass. It's going to pass the House. I
00:41:05
have a feeling it might pass the Senate because you don't want to be on record as trying to quash this kind of stuff.
00:41:12
He'll get it'll get to his desk. He's gonna have to veto it, right? He's he's gonna veto it. If he vetos it, it might
00:41:18
not get out, but it will then get out. Yeah, but it Okay, first off, I think more stuff to me. What has to happen,
00:41:25
right? These these emails, and by the way, I spent all day reading them. Um, these emails are problematic enough. There's
00:41:32
the there's a photo, and Epstein has referred to it. There's a video. There is definitely a photo of him in some
00:41:39
fashion and that will get out and then it'll because as you said the visual
00:41:44
stuff is what people respond to. People are very upset about the East Wing because visually it's repulsive to look
00:41:50
at. And so if there's a photo I think you know the the the [ __ ] grabbing thing was voice which was
00:41:58
problematic enough but there's a photo like what happened to Andrew I I think it's game over and then we have
00:42:04
president [ __ ] J. If forced to speculate, if forced to speculate, the thing that I think I would guess happens
00:42:11
when you have a sickopant unusual gentleman running your FBI that
00:42:17
is claiming the files have any that the files have been released to the extent that is legally possible, which is a
00:42:23
lie, and you have your own personal attorney running the DOJ. I just wouldn't put them past them to do what I
00:42:29
would call a soft release. and that is they release stuff and claim it's a full release and it just says the names of
00:42:36
all these Democrats. But quite frank I just why would we think it's not above them to engage in the corruption of
00:42:44
bastardizing, lying and altering the it here when they have implanted or embedded up
00:42:51
and down the supply chain a group of corrupt people. You know, I'm a big believer, as people know, when I covered
00:42:57
Silicon Valley in the leak, and I think there's going to be people leaking this stuff over and it's going to be drip
00:43:03
drip drip. And this is something I think, you know, it would be super ironic that this guy
00:43:08
gets taken down by emails.
00:43:15
You love that. Hillary Clinton must be like
00:43:24
You know, they were on her. It was a big joke on the internet. Her the thing that was on her server was a was she was
00:43:29
trying to help a young girl get out of Afghanistan was what got leaked for her and for him it's you know all this
00:43:36
Yeah. I would put I would say this is worse. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Anyway, we'll see what
00:43:41
happens. I think this I just I don't know. I feel like we're going to have President JD Vance by the end of 2026.
00:43:49
I get it. But he is Wait, hold on. You think this ends his presidency prematurely? Yes,
00:43:54
he'll be sick. He'll be I do. I think he's not going to make it to the end.
00:43:59
Be careful what you wish for. I think JD Vance is here. I agree. Hello. I just called him a couch [ __ ] to San Francisco.
00:44:05
JD Vance, alleged couch [ __ ] is all of the calories with none of the great taste of stupidity that doesn't
00:44:11
get things done. This guy is You want Peter Teal to be president? Because that's who's going to be president.
00:44:17
Yep. And by the way, who is also in the Epstein uh emails, FYI. Um, a lot of
00:44:22
people are in there, not he was just they're just joshing. Got to be honest, I love the stuff about Larry Summers getting dating advice.
00:44:28
Larry Summers. Yeah. To me, the worst thing today was Megan Kelly uh sort of
00:44:33
parsing um age. It's not as bad as we thought cuz it's 15 year olds, not 5y olds.
00:44:38
Yeah. 10 year olds. 10 year olds. Yeah. 5-year-olds are worse for her, I guess. I don't The whole thing was
00:44:44
demented. like it was demented. I listened to the whole thing cuz I was trying I'm like oh she can't have said
00:44:50
that and I'm like she said that and more like it was really to me and in in a different age that would have been
00:44:56
careerending and it's not. She'll just rage her way through it with her fan base. Yeah. I don't I well I don't I don't I
00:45:04
like the fact I think we we need less career-ending stuff when people [ __ ] up because if we're going to have 24 by7
00:45:10
media I think you have to have a little Why does anyone want to run for anything
00:45:15
if they Have you noticed in in this guy the mayor he's unique because he doesn't
00:45:20
want to I generally believe he doesn't want to do anything after this because he wouldn't come on my podcast. I can get anyone on my podcast right now
00:45:26
because they're all running for president and he said no which means he has no desire to move on beyond being
00:45:31
maybe he doesn't like you because he's coming on mine but actually he already went on yours and
00:45:38
you know our deal in this relationship when you bring in a third person I at least get to watch
00:45:44
anyways where were we so
00:45:50
profoundly uninterested you what I was saying essentially unfortunately the reason politicians are
00:45:56
so boring and so starched is they're worried about saying something indelgate. I'm not talking about Megan Kelly and I think that Democrats quite
00:46:03
frankly need to be more forgiving and have fewer purity tests and be more focused on but
00:46:09
I agree I you know I agree with it but I don't agree I don't agree when you say
00:46:14
hey it's a 15year-old we can all understand that. Yeah but you hate Megan Kelly and she hates you. No, no, no.
00:46:20
That is not why that is. No, of course not. Um I I advise her to go into
00:46:26
podcasting, a thing I regret to this very day. Um she's very good. I I get it. But this you have to I'm
00:46:33
sorry. There's certain things. You're right. You shouldn't be careful about It's a giant [ __ ] distraction. It's not. It's a heinous thing to say.
00:46:39
And Okay, but why are we But why are we spending I just think it was particularly heinous
00:46:44
on a heinous day of things. I was Yeah, she's a [ __ ] podcaster. what we say is not that relevant. The emails and
00:46:50
what's going on with him are the news. Yes, absolutely. I agree. I still think she's heinous. Anyway, um all right, we
00:46:56
need to take another quick break and we come back, we'll get to some more a little more news and then listener questions. So, get ready.
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00:48:05
Scott, we're back. Last very quick thing. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has directed visa
00:48:12
officers to deny entry to people with chronic health conditions like obesity, diabetes, and cancer, citing potential
00:48:18
health care costs. They fit right in. Yeah, I know. Exactly. The guidance also flags retirement age and having
00:48:25
dependents with disabilities as a reason for denial. Uh the White House claims it's just enforcing an old policy uh not
00:48:32
letting in people who'd be a drain on taxpayers, but immigration lawyers say it's a massive expansion who can be turned away. about 16% of adults
00:48:38
worldwide are obese, probably largely here. Um, what does this sound like? It's not give me you're tired, you're
00:48:44
poor, uh, kind of attitude. What historical government does this remind you of, Scott?
00:48:51
Any thoughts? Look, I don't I don't think anyone has This is a tough one. Um, because I mean,
00:48:57
it's sort of the one thing we share in America except in wealthy cities where you all go to Equinox. Um, by by the
00:49:05
way, I went to the Equinox in my hotel today. The hottest men. Okay. My god. Did you hook up?
00:49:11
Wow. Yeah. In a back of a weimo. Yeah. Um, now, so 70% of America is either
00:49:17
overweight or obese. That's the one thing we share. 70% of Americans aren't anything except we're obese and
00:49:22
overweight. So I that seems very strange to me that we wouldn't say, "Oh, you're uniquely American if you're obese." Um,
00:49:29
but at the same time, I do think that, and it can go up and down. If you're an
00:49:35
outstanding roofer and you don't have a criminal record, we need roofers. We
00:49:40
need people to take care of our take care of our our elderly. We need people to keep our prices. I'm a big fan of
00:49:47
going up and down the supply chain in terms of who we let in. But I do think there should be criteria around who will
00:49:54
or who won't be a drain on the system. I just don't know because they're like
00:50:00
they're taking snap and this is all about cruelty just cruelty to various people. It's not and again the real
00:50:06
obesity problem is here in this country. They don't want to address that. But on a meta level, this is what
00:50:12
happened. When progressives wouldn't enforce the border, fascists will. We
00:50:17
stuck our chin out. We let a quarter of a million people come across the border in one month under Biden by going
00:50:23
asylum. That's all they had to do. And so the the general cadence and rhythm of
00:50:29
politics in America the last 10 years is the following. We are well-intentioned progressives. We do really [ __ ]
00:50:34
stupid things. We let a transgender woman show up at an NC2A meet and compete. Right? And I'm not suggesting
00:50:41
that a transgender athlete in junior high school leave it up to the school. If it gives her confidence, fantastic.
00:50:48
But when we let transgender athletes compete for medals and money and we all just ignore it, fine. when we let a
00:50:54
quarter of a million people come in and then what happens? We have this severe
00:51:00
reaction of fascism from the right where they start pulling the names off of
00:51:05
people who have served honorably and we decide in a little nod to the gay community's contribution to the military
00:51:11
that we're going to name a secondary frigot after Harvey Mil and they decide to take the [ __ ] name off. I mean,
00:51:17
that's just that is just so or we're they're now kicking all transgender service people out of the service who
00:51:24
have served honorably, which is not only mean and cruel, but it makes us less safe. But let's be clear, folks, we
00:51:31
stick our chin out in my view. And I know that's not popular among this audience. But when we go [ __ ] insane
00:51:36
and do things that are well-intentioned, for example, we built an infrastructure and an apparatus where people like me
00:51:42
can pay themselves well and have no accountability or measurable outcomes, then sweep in this ridiculous fascist
00:51:48
argument that we should cut funding to universities under the opaces of anti-semitism. We take good intentions
00:51:55
way too far, focused on virtue, not on actual on the ground material or economic or psychological well-being,
00:52:01
and they overcorrect with what feels like [ __ ] 1933 Germany. But see, Scott, Scott, that's the thing.
00:52:06
You're say I I might agree with you on some of that, but it's the the level of
00:52:12
cruelty and how far they go. Um, you know, the left can be sensorious and
00:52:17
then the right bans books. Like, it's a very different level of we're saying the same thing. Right. But
00:52:22
when you have something like this, what should be the criteria of who comes in? People who are useful that we need here
00:52:28
in this country to kick people out, not people who are hardworking, paying their taxes, etc.
00:52:35
You know how I feel about this stuff. I don't I I I think it's I think it's we
00:52:40
need people to look, the reality is this. People say immigration is the secret sauce of
00:52:48
America. Okay, I don't know what that means. The most profitable part of immigration is illegal immigration
00:52:55
because these people pay. So they call them undocumented workers. They have all sorts of documents. They have taxpayers
00:53:01
because we want to collect social security payments for them. They have phone contracts. They have driver's licenses. They have insurance contracts.
00:53:08
They have cable bills. We paper them up all over the place so we can collect money. Right? So the not and we've been
00:53:15
turning a blind eye to this for 40 years because the reality is they come in, they don't tax our services, they commit
00:53:21
less crimes, they they go to the emergency room less and they pay social security taxes and generally they return
00:53:26
home before they collect social security. They're the most profitable, flexible workforce in history. Having
00:53:33
said that, having said that you do need borders. You do need some sort of system for
00:53:39
evaluating. And I personally believe that being born on planet Earth does not give you a birthight to live in America.
00:53:45
Otherwise, we're going to have a billion people on our shores. So, there needs to be criteria. Some of it needs to be based on true political asylum and where
00:53:52
we can help people. But I do believe at the end of the day, we should let in people that are most accretive to our
00:53:58
economy and our society. I think there should be a criteria and I think we should say no to a lot of people. Yeah. Well, I still think this is cruel.
00:54:05
I'm just think it's just he's they're just doing it for for performative uh performative ways. Um okay, last
00:54:10
question then we're going to get to audience questions. Um uh are now do you
00:54:15
see why I'm so positive about San Francisco? Why I love it? He always gives me a hard time, but I love I lived here for 10 years. I was
00:54:21
married. We were doing things like going sailing and going biking in Mount Tam. And I thought another 10 years of this
00:54:27
and I was in tech. I'm going to go into the garage, turn the car door car on, and leave the door down.
00:54:34
that that there's nowhere to go to cook get a cocktail after 1000 p.m. here.
00:54:40
Everyone everyone wants to go to Soma and go wine. Oh, [ __ ]
00:54:46
Oh my god. Oh, the technology industry. We're saving the planet. I have never met a more rapacious bunch of douchebags
00:54:53
who would [ __ ] their sister for a nickel.
00:54:58
But we're saving the whales. We're saving humanity. so [ __ ] unattractive.
00:55:04
Okay. Oh my god. Come to New York. Hello. Hello. They drink. They love to make my
00:55:10
Anyways, uh so true story. I said to my wife, I said, uh uh we decided to get
00:55:17
divorced and I said, "I want the dog. You can have all of our friends. I'm never coming back.
00:55:22
I love San Francisco."
00:55:27
I had I had I literally had the best day. I I walked around Noi Valley and I
00:55:32
walked it was pouring rain but it was lovely. I love it San Francisco in the rain. I uh I I had oysters and by the
00:55:39
way my son Louie is moving back here so I'm very excited. He was born and uh
00:55:45
raised here. So uh thanks Scott for that terrific uh ad for San Francisco. Um
00:55:53
we'll take one more quick break. We'll be back for some audience questions. We're very excited. Support for the show
00:55:59
comes from ODO. Running a business is hard enough and you don't need to make it harder with a dozen different apps that don't talk to each other. One for
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at odo.com. That's odo.com. [Music]
00:57:01
Scott, we're back recording live from San Francisco here
00:57:10
in the city by the bay and my favorite place on earth. We're ready to take some questions for the audience and we love
00:57:16
hearing from you. We might not get to everyone tonight. We're going to try. We've been trying in every city. We're getting biggy long lines. That said,
00:57:23
keep questions short so we can get to as many people as possible. Um, but let's just look. I have a special person
00:57:29
starting. Um, let's show this clipping photo here. So, you might want to look at it.
00:57:35
Go ahead. What is it? This is a picture of Scott Galloway as a kid doing Taekwondo.
00:57:43
Where did you get this exactly? Seriously, it didn't hurt. So, let's bring the lights up, please,
00:57:48
so I can see where people are. This is in. So, hi. Hi.
00:57:53
What's your name? Debbie Brewbaker. Jesus Christ. Really?
00:58:00
Hi, Scott. This is apparently or Scott thinks so.
00:58:06
His fourth grade girlfriend. I I'm thinking so. Uh
00:58:22
Just real quick, Gabby and I were the smartest kids in the third grade and they used to send us to fifth grade for
00:58:28
math and English and we used to hang out. We did. And I I am thinking maybe you
00:58:33
had a crush on me and maybe maybe I had a crush on you, but I am now on Carara's
00:58:39
team. I bet for the other side,
00:58:45
but I haven't seen you in 50 years.
00:58:55
[Music]
00:59:03
You didn't know. She didn't know who I was when I asked her to come. Yeah, she she's not online. Is that right, Debbie? Get on the thing. Get
00:59:09
back up here. Scott Gallery, stop making out with your third great girlfriend. Um, who is of course Scott's always
00:59:15
like, "Everyone I went out with became a lesbian." And I'm like, "Let me find one. Let me find one for you." It was so
00:59:20
easy. I should have known. We spent the night in your dad's camper and you wouldn't even kiss me. We're playing truth or dare and you're like, "Nope, Debbie.
00:59:27
It's so good. It's so good to see you." So, do you have a really quick question for us, Debbie? By the way, you're you're not on social media. Do you have
00:59:33
any questions for us? I am not on social media at all. Uh it just Good for you.
00:59:39
Uh I'll just tell a quick story, but my my stepsister who's here uh is a huge
00:59:45
fan of both of you. She listens to Pivot every every podcast and she I guess
00:59:50
heard you say something about me and being the smartest girl in third grade and she texted me. I guess she almost
00:59:57
got in an accident. She was driving and she texted me immediately and said, "Do you know Scott Galloway from fourth
01:00:03
grade?" And I said, "Yes, I do." And uh that led to other things that got me
01:00:08
here. And I I've never seen you bald or tall.
01:00:14
It's It's not a good look. Is Is there Is it Are you going to change back for him? Don't
01:00:20
Maybe. I'd like to get to know you. Anyway, Debbie, thank you so much. We
01:00:27
really So good to see you, Debbie. So, so nice. Thank you.
01:00:32
We're thrilled. Yeah. Come to our party. Thank you. All right. Next up, uh my butler, Casey
01:00:38
Newton. Hi, everybody. Oh, Casey. Great, great to see you guys.
01:00:43
I like My sons call him Gayy, but that's right. Yeah, I'm a huge fan of the pot. I actually had a crush on you,
01:00:49
Cara, when I was in fourth grade. So, it's nice to see you tonight. Um, you know, I thought in the San Francisco fashion I might ask another AI question.
01:00:56
Okay. Um, I noticed in your analysis of the potential crash, you did not seem to
01:01:02
take into account the possibility that one or more of these companies creates a pretty effective digital worker,
01:01:08
something that you could swap in for many, many thousands of employees. And so I wondered, is that because you don't think it will happen? And if you did
01:01:15
think it might happen, how might it change your analysis? I'm sorry, an effective digital workplace,
01:01:20
what we might call hi around here, a worker, like something that you could uh, you know, you use software instead
01:01:25
of hiring a person. Automation. So I think these companies are incredible
01:01:32
companies and I do think AI is going to so every year I pick a technology of the
01:01:38
year. I do a predictions uh deck at the end of the year and I picked AI two years in a row and actually this year I
01:01:44
picked I actually think GLP1 is bigger than GPT5 in terms of on the ground impact on on Americans lives. I think
01:01:51
these things are going to be incredible. I just doubt they're going to be able to
01:01:57
live up to the expectations built into if you look Casey at the market cap
01:02:02
they're at built into any sort of reasonable forward price earnings they're built into the valuations of
01:02:09
these companies is the assumption that they're going to either create $3 to5 trillion in incremental revenue for
01:02:14
their clients or save3 to5 trillion and so far I don't see a lot of AI
01:02:21
moisturizer or cars that are designed or driven by AI, autonomous, you could
01:02:26
argue. What I see so far is efficiencies, which is Latin for layoffs. And if you do, so what you see
01:02:33
is you hear about firms saying, "We're going to save 10 or 20 or 30 or $50 million on legal costs or compliance,"
01:02:39
which again is Latin for layoffs. And if you do the math, only 160 million Americans work, assuming they need you
01:02:47
need to get you need to find a trillion dollars a year in efficiencies to justify these valuations. an average
01:02:54
salary of 70 or 80 grand including lo load uh uh office load 100 grand let's
01:02:59
just assume to save a trillion dollars in efficiencies to justify the valuations that means you need to find
01:03:07
10 million fewer jobs or there needs to be a labor destruction of 10 million jobs if of 160 million total employment
01:03:15
stick with me I know this is boring if half the industries are immune to AI plumbers chiropractors nurses whatever
01:03:23
That means 80 million people are quote unquote vulnerable. And the only way you could justify these valuations is one of
01:03:29
three things needs to happen. They come up all of a sudden we start using all these AIdriven products that convince us
01:03:34
to spend more money or we have a 12 a.5% destruction in the labor force across
01:03:40
the industry susceptible to to AI which is chaos. That may not sound like a lot but at the height of the automobile
01:03:47
collapse it wasn't that much labor. So, we're either going to have an unemployment chaos across several
01:03:53
industries or these companies are going to get cut in half. Either way, I see tumult, but Casey has this amazing uh
01:04:00
substack called Platformer. That's right. And what I'd put it back to you. Where do I have this wrong and what do you
01:04:06
think about that assertion? You may very well not have it wrong. I just know that all of the folks I talk
01:04:12
to here who work in the industry, who run these companies say 12 and a half% like yes, I can I can take that number
01:04:19
of jobs out of the economy. So, you know, I I don't know if they're right, but that is certainly the assumption that is holding here right now.
01:04:24
Or perhaps they don't know. Well, yes, that's my assumption. That's my that's
01:04:30
always my assumption. And you know, I see some of the clues to that is when OpenA announced an erotica service that
01:04:36
mean they'd run out of ideas, right? and they went right to porn. I was like, "Ah, we're at porn now. O, that's a
01:04:42
problem." All right. Well, thanks very much, Sean. Thank you for the question. You guys, we really uh do recommend uh
01:04:50
Platformer. Casey has been a longtime friend of me. He did live in my house. Uh where Louis is going to be living,
01:04:55
Casey, in case you're interested. But um but he's a great great writer and a great analysis, so you should read him.
01:05:02
Next question. Uh I'm Joyce, 25 year resident of San Francisco. worked in music first and
01:05:09
then tech. Um, music got destroyed by streaming. Tech kind of has had its
01:05:14
bubble too and now I work in legal weed. Yeah. Hello.
01:05:19
Yes. Consumer here. Yes. Did you bring some for the dog? I brought you.
01:05:29
Oh my god. Had to shoot my shot. Right. Yeah. It's called Sonoma Hills Farm.
01:05:34
We're the first uh OCAL certified organic cannabis uh farm in the state.
01:05:40
Yep. Um yesterday was a big day in Congress. Um well uh hemp uh was banned yesterday.
01:05:49
I think it was 76 to 24. That makes sense. Right. Right. Um you know, regulated parties
01:05:55
are like, well, you know, hemp just kind of has this loophole and we've spent all this money. But at the end of the day,
01:06:00
it was like the biggest step towards backtracking prohibition that we've seen in a long time. We have 24 legal states,
01:06:06
39 with uh, you know, medical cannabis helps with reducing anxiety.
01:06:12
Mitch McConnell in the alcohol lobby that did that. Correct. Yeah. You know, they have these amazing
01:06:18
off-brandies here where you can get generic drugs and I got some generic um,
01:06:24
erectile dysfunction drugs. The generic term is my coxifin.
01:06:30
Okay. What is your No, that's bad. That's good. Doesn't that word just make you happy? My coxin.
01:06:36
No, it doesn't. We like to say we can put weed on that. I would not suggest in this besides giving Scott drugs. What is your
01:06:43
question? My question is, you know, 70% of Americans approve of legalization and
01:06:49
yet 24 people said yes yesterday and 76 said no. And here we are with 70% of the
01:06:57
population able to buy legal canvas. Meta will not let us advertise. None of the fintech companies let us use their
01:07:03
software. So these business owners who probably ideiated high now have these
01:07:09
big companies and they're saying no cannabis, you can't play in this field. I'm interested in like why big business
01:07:16
and government keep saying no to something that a massive swath of the population. I mean, it's a really I
01:07:24
agree with you. It's ridiculous, which is why so much of the action's been on a state level, right? In most um I find it
01:07:30
it's the same thing with gun control, but it's like 80%. It's 80. There's a bunch of topics that are 8020 and our
01:07:36
Congress does the very opposite for all various incundary reasons depending on the topic. But something like this, this
01:07:42
is, you know, it's a difficult industry. I know it's been through its ups and downs. the the um especially the mar the
01:07:48
legal marijuana industry. It's been a tough it's been a tough road um in so many ways. Um I don't I I think it's the
01:07:55
alcohol lobby just had more power than the marijuana lobby and somehow you have
01:08:00
to gain more power and I suspect when Congress is in 103 [ __ ] years old uh
01:08:07
and you know puts back the liquor and Mitch McConnell's long gone which is next week hopefully.
01:08:13
um uh or some of these people it will change as younger people come up and don't cuz I certainly know among I have
01:08:21
four kids but my older kids um well Alex just just does protein shakes but um my
01:08:28
you know they were not they are not drinkers they're weed people right or or that that's the that's the preference
01:08:34
and so it seems like all their friends are like that so I think it's just a it's a demographic trend that's just
01:08:39
going to take a while Scott do you have any thoughts so This goes back to dating advice. I I
01:08:45
think substances play a really important role in a young person's life and they're not for everybody. You may
01:08:50
decide that it's not for you. I'm trying to drink less alcohol as I get older cuz I realize my 51-year-old liver cannot
01:08:57
handle 51. He's not 51. Just go with it. No, I'm not. Just go with it.
01:09:03
He's like jaja gore of like podcasters. Anyways,
01:09:08
darling, I am very I love being high. I'm a better version of myself. a little bit [ __ ] up and
01:09:14
and as I get older, I'm trying to reduce my alcohol content and and I I replace
01:09:19
it with THC and edibles. Um, but I my I'm very serious and I've said this and
01:09:24
I've had Andrew Huberman and Peter Atia on my podcast. I think one of the worst things the second worst thing to happen
01:09:30
to young people. The worst is remote work. One-third of relationships begin at work. You need to touch people. You need to with their consent. You need to
01:09:38
you need guard rails. If I hadn't had a job at Morgan Stanley that demanded I
01:09:44
got into the office, I didn't have the discipline not to walk my dog and watch Netflix and smoke a lot of pot every
01:09:49
day. I needed the office. I made friends. I found mentors. So anyways,
01:09:55
but the second worst thing is this anti-alcohol movement. It look at look at the most important things in your
01:10:01
life, the relationships. Look at your best friends. Look at your romantic relationships. Did alcohol play some
01:10:09
role in that? Seriously, what about weed? She's asking about some of us it was weed.
01:10:14
Weed. I would I would say the same thing. But my advice generally speaking to young people is drink
01:10:22
and do some edibles and then go out and make a series of bad decisions that might pay off.
01:10:27
Nice. And and for the marijuana industry, you'll you'll get you'll beat them at some point. You absolutely will cuz the
01:10:34
old people will die. But as Scott says, biology is undefeated. Um anyway, we
01:10:40
really appreciate this and um I'm so glad to see so many friends. I have so many friends. You know, I'd say my amazing brother is here, Jeff Swisser.
01:10:47
And Dr. Swish, his lovely wife Dana, I don't know where they are, but my good friend Robert May is here.
01:10:54
Robert, I don't know where you are. Gave me my first office space. Yeah. In any case, we really appreciate
01:10:59
we love San Francisco. We will be back. Um, you can catch selected shows from this tour on YouTube and your podcast
01:11:06
feeds. So, that's all we've got time for today. Scott, read us out. Today's show was produced by Laren
01:11:12
Aiman, Zoe Marcus, Taylor Griffin, and Kate Gallagher. Amazing support provided by Trish, Kelly Schwanter, and Caitlin
01:11:18
Lich. And a big shout out to the Vox Media Experiential team, Riley Courtney Given, Abby Arnowski, and Caitlyn
01:11:24
Burlaw. Make sure to follow your uh Pivot on your favorite podcast platform. Thanks for listening to Pivot from New
01:11:30
York Magazine, Vox Media. You can subscribe to the magazine at nymag.com/pod.
01:11:36
We'll be back later this week for another breakdown of all things tech and business. Thank you, Caris Swisser, and
01:11:42
thank you, San Francisco. Thank you, San Francisco. We love you. Thank you so much.
