00:00:00
If I asked AI to give me an image of Mark Zuckerberg that defines who he is,
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I feel like it would be a guy at a really sad malt shop sucking up the
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world's user data through a straw and every time he made eye contact with you, he'd apologize and look away.
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Hi everyone, this is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Cara Swisser from Scott
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Galloway's living room. And I'm Scott Galloway. We got a lot to get to today here from your apartment in uh Manhattan. Uh blow
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up tech earnings. Crazy. A big shakeup on the weight loss drug market. I really am interested in what you think about
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this. And how much does Trump need to worry about Joe Rogan? Joe Rogan is turning rogue on Trump on several
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topics. Uh but first, the man who opened fire in a Manhattan office building on Monday, not not terrifically far from
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here, killing four people and injuring a fifth was targeting the NFL headquarters with a note claiming he suffered from
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CTE. A page uh in the shooters note accused the NFL of concealing the
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dangers to football players brains in order to maximize profits. This is a longtime thing. I I uh I I am Lots of
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people are concerned. I didn't let my kids play football because I was worried about that. the shooter played high school football but did not play
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professionally and of course what he did was heinous. Um but pretty uh devastating that people you know same
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thing with Luigi Manion people acting out on anger the the level of anger in
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the society and maybe uh you can only find out if you have CTE after you die.
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So I assume they'll check this and see if that's the case. But I think Sanjay Gupa said 40% of the people who claim
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they have CTE uh before they die actually have it like of the 100% which
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is quite a lot. It's not nothing. So I don't know any thoughts. Yeah. I mean well first off we don't
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know if and what role CTE played here. Um we don't. So just distinctive whether or not this
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was CTE played a role here. It is, you know, they they there was a study of former NFL players that found that of
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the 376 players studied, 91% had CTE. I mean, you just have people running. It's
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not even the impact. I guess it's the rotation, sudden rotation that a helmet can't solve for, right? Your head twists
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and the the whatever it is, the cortex of the brain spine just can't can't respond that quickly.
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Yeah. Um, everyone's been talking about it for a while, but it's an it's sort of an example of capitalism. I'm not sure for
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you could really justify the sport if it didn't make billions each year if it
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wasn't if it wasn't psychologically and economically just so ingrained in our culture. But they really are sort of
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modern day gladiators and they pay an enormous price. But the the thing that struck me about this Cara or I think
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what the obviously in addition to the tragedy the families of the people who who were
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murdered is you know we're back to office mostly
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actually it's interesting the US has had kind of the most anemic return to office of almost any nation and young people
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have gotten very used to I think as the employment market is so strong here and tech is so strong that
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companies have had a difficult time getting everyone to return to the office especially 5 days a week. Mhm. And something I've always noticed about
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that I can't stand about going to meetings is that from the time you get to the lobby, by the time you go through
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check-in, security, and all that, and get up to the it's like 10 or 12 minutes, at least 10 or 15 minutes.
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Yeah. And this is only going to make security that much more complex slash robust
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because the last thing you want to worry about is going to a place that is, you know,
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is less safe than the place you came from. And it is also poorest in a lot of ways. People are um you know it was
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interesting because immediately because there's a mayor's race there was sort of like an on kind like you know why didn't
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mom Donnie do something about him because he's not mayor you know his he's because he's way ahead actually among
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Jewish voters a bunch of other things which is interesting. Uh I thought he handled it rather well. He said, "We're only as strong as our weakest gun laws
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across the country." And called attention to, you know, the fact that even though New York has very strict gun
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laws, you can't be protected because this guy was in from Nevada and I think his boss got him the thing that made the
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assault that he assembled the assault weapon. And I think again it's a you know, it's such a complex problem like
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here we have CTE, we've got the ability to create weapons of mass destruction
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for people to have assault weapons. um would what'll be interesting like again it's another thing where they'll talk
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about it and then do nothing about assault weapons or the ability to assemble assault weapons um in the
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country and probably if he does have CD blame it on that um but it does you know
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I've always I always feel unsafe um at at buildings I don't know why I
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feel like there's such like a place where someone who has mental illness which is growing or people that are
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angry like Luigi G manion and take it like it's you can see how easy it is in
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a big city like New York. Well, I don't know if you this one will get I mean there's already been dozens of mass shootings every year
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and you you said something once that struck me. You said that as a species we're good at adapting and that's a bad
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thing here. We have normalized and adapted to something that we should not adapt to. And also, this will get more
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attention. And I'll be interested. There'll be articles basically saying that when it's nice white executives in
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Midtown Manhattan, a mass shooting gets gets play in the media. When it's just a mass shooting of some a bunch of nice
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people at a mall in Kentucky, no one gives a [ __ ] because there's so many of them. So, this will be I think you'll
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this will get a lot of attention. But again, this is really basic math or
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science or, you know, XY validate, nullify a thesis. And if your thesis is the following that guns are the primary
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or weapons of war really are the primary culprit you that theory would be
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validated because we do not have a we do not have a monopoly on head injuries. We
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do not have a monopoly on angry young men. We do not have a monopoly on mental illness. What we have a monopoly on is
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that all of these people have access to weapons of war. Right. Exactly. And it is and there's
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ways around it. There's one there's ways around it. That's that's all the only way you can think about it.
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And also this [ __ ] notion that you can't do anything about it, that it's too late, that Australia had a mass shooting. Reasonable people, okay, we
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should ban assault weapons. And they have had a dramatic decrease in mass shootings. The UK had a deadly mass
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shooting back in uh I think it was in 96 in Dunla, Scotland. Kids and teachers were killed next, you
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know, right away. No more assault weapons. So this is something and I've said this before what one of the free
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gifts with purchase of moving to the UK it's like a lot of things if you actually look at statistically
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I mean a mass shooting there's no reason there's no reason not to go out there's no reason not to go work there's no
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reason in my opinion not to send your kids to school if you look at the real hard numbers your kid you and your kids
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are still at least mathematically pretty safe the problem is the fear and that is
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when I'm in UK. I don't have these horror fantasies about turning on the TV and seeing my kids school on the screen.
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I agree. I think about it a lot actually with my kids in school, my young kids in school in public school. I just it just
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it's just the mental illness combined with the availability of these guns. Most anxious most anxious depressed
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generation in history. And then you have weapons of mass weapons of war. And the other thing I go to is just what is
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happiness in a society? And we tend to think that we're studying to the wrong test. We think of if the Dow hits new
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highs that we're happy. Now, the Dow Jones and the NASDAQ, which in my opinion are two of the most damaging metrics in history, are basically just
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wealth indices. And that is an indices on the wealth of the top 10% who own somewhere between 50 and 90% of the
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stock. And spoiler alert, they're doing really well. But if you think about real happiness in a society, it's not only a
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function of what you have, it's a function of what you don't have. If you find out your wife has lung cancer and
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you live in Norway, it doesn't mean you're going bankrupt. And that's not necessarily the case here. And also they
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have an absence of this type of fear that we have to live under.
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So it's not I mean we keep talking about this. The thing that drives me crazy is we'll hear from a bunch of people on the
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right thoughts and prayers and all this [ __ ] But I'll be very curious to see what the
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studies are. They track people going in and out of buildings in Manhattan. Just they do. There's all kinds of
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technology. Absolutely. But it'll be interesting to see what the trends are. If people just sort of ignore this or people think, you know,
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I don't know what how you could harden buildings, you know, given metal detectors. I don't know what could
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you do. If you're clever enough or you're violent enough, you can get through to these or just sit in front of the building. I
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mean, right. I mean, just that's what the great city of New York is about is being able to
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It's the crush of humanity. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. the assault weapon. I think I mean
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I think Kokal has called for an assault weapon. But again, as Mumani correctly said, you can if you can go buy it in
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Tennessee, what's the difference? And drive yourself, you know, through the Lincoln tunnel. That's the end of it. It does help though. It New York's skin
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laws do help. Um and I was saying to someone a couple nights ago, New York City is actually is actually one of the
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safest big cities in the world. Yeah. Except for this, but I mean it's just again another senseless tragedy for
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our country. and and it's so common and we become used to it. Um, speaking of something you've talked about a lot,
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Scott, a Senate committee voted to advance a bill that would ban stock trading by members of Congress, presidents, and vice presidents with a
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convenient carveout for Donald Trump. Lawmakers would be banned from buying stocks once the bill goes into effect
00:09:49
and blocked from selling stocks 90 days after that, but divestments wouldn't be required until the beginning of the new
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term. So, Trump is in the clear. The bill originally called the Pelosi Act for Nancy Pelosi you like to give a hard
00:10:01
time too, was introduced by Senator Josh Holly, the only Republican who voted for it. Trump initially said he supported
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the ban conceptually, but later lashed out at Holly, accusing of being a pawn for the Democrats. Uh he wanted to put
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in a Pelosi thing just because he's such a revenge-minded person. Um the future of the bill is uncertain. Uh but it is
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moving forward. Uh Trump is also calling for investigation. Nancy Pelosi stock trading, but the problem for him is
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there's tons of Republicans doing the same for her part. Pelosi put out a statement saying she supports the
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legislation. Um, you know, of course, he's just cutting off his nose despite his face, but and has attacked Holly as
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a second rate senator. Um, who that and then Holly tried to suck up to him again, but um the fact that they cannot
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get this through and and you've talked about the idea of just paying these the Congress people more um it's just
00:10:50
astonishing. 80% it's an 8020 thing. I think 80% of people across the country
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think they should do this and they're not doing this. Yeah. So it's some of the most popular
00:11:00
or it has more support of any proposed legislation in a long time. It's this is largely performative. My understanding
00:11:06
is it's not going to go through. But I mean one of the real advantages uh that
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the US has is that we have the deepest pools of capital and that is there is a giant river of capital that flows in has
00:11:20
arteries reaching into the deepest corners of Thailand that if a somebody's working there and has something like a
00:11:26
401k or invest in stocks 50% of that capital will ultimately end up in the US flow to the US because of our incredible
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companies IP um colleges R&D risk you know risk
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aggressiveness, but also because we have a rule of fair play. And that is someone thinks if I invest in an S&P or a NASDAQ
00:11:45
fund, even though I'm not in the no, I don't I'm not in Congress. I'm not on a board of directors, I'm not going to get
00:11:52
[ __ ] Someone else isn't going to make a ton of money at my expense. There's rule of fair play. And as a result,
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startups in the United States have $5 million for every startup. In Europe, it's 1 million. We have five times the
00:12:04
venture capital here per company. And if you these deep pools of capital which are just enormously an enormous
00:12:11
advantage, a lot of that is because there is quote unquote rule of fair play. It's not the reason why the
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Russian stock market is is not worth what Nvidia loses or gains every day is everyone assumes the game is rigged. So
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they're not going to put their money in the stock market. The person in Kodker in St. Petersburg is like no this is rigged. And to be blunt, Speaker Pelosi
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and her husband, their net worth is estimated at $420 million. And last
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year, their net worth increased 54%. And Democrats managed to ek out a 31% return
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in 2024 and Republicans of 26%. Both overperforming the S&P. This is
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and Trump's crypto. Trump, talk about someone who's really cashed in as a Trump family.
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Here's the problem. A small amount of corruption leads to big corruption. And to a certain extent, Trump said, "These
00:13:02
these, you know, these Congress people are playing small ball. They're they're doing insider trading for hundreds of
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thousands or millions. I'm going to do it for billions." But Speaker Emir Pelosi, in my view, let's talk
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specifically about the legislation. He was not serious. When you call something the Pelosi act, you're saying [ __ ] you
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to the other side. Because a lot of people understandably have a great deal of affection for Speaker Emir Pelosi.
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when you call something when you're purposely being aggressive. They change the name. I think it's the honest act.
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Yeah, they did change the name, but it showed he wasn't it showed he wasn't really serious about what would be
00:13:37
required to pass this. And that is bipartisan support. When you come out of the gates swinging like that,
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I agree. The Democrats are just like, you know, [ __ ] you, boss. You just didn't need to do that. We should the moment you are
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elected to office, the moment even as I think you go through the primaries, you have to put your money in a blind trust.
00:13:58
And if you're not willing to do that, what you're acknowledging is you have some sort of special access or information that other people don't.
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Yes. Not supporting this bill means that you want to continue to quote unquote engage in insider trading. And the fact that
00:14:09
you have people in intelligence briefings where they are making decisions on tens of billions of dollars that may or may not be
00:14:16
uh spent by companies that are publicly traded and then you can literally leave that briefing and go call someone and you're
00:14:23
not supposed to, but you can. The fines are the fines are such that everyone ignores it and say, "Honey, go buy
00:14:31
um whatever." Yeah. or this AAI. What was the one that she bought call options on in the
00:14:38
morning that Roger Taylor Green did it a bunch of times too? But Pelosi announced when Pelosi announced or disclosed she'd bought
00:14:44
options call options in a healthcare AI company. I forget the name of the company. Um the stock spiked like 10 or 15%. I
00:14:52
mean it's just anyways they should have to put in a blind trust and and also the other side of this we need to pay these
00:14:58
people a lot more so they don't feel the temptation to do these things. It it it
00:15:04
I think at 174 they're both equal in the Senate and the Congress. I think it's 174,000 which is a lot of for people for
00:15:11
regular people to live in DC support two homes. It really isn't. So what would be the what would you give
00:15:17
them? First of all, they could put the their current they don't not have to have stocks. They just put it in an index fund or
00:15:22
they just have no control over it. Just a blind trust. These are everywhere. Um what would you pay them? I would pay Congress people I would pay
00:15:29
our representatives a million dollars a year. our senators 2 million a year and you know the president five I would go to the Singapore model
00:15:35
and that is pay them really well and then absolute zero [ __ ] tolerance for any of this nonsense none you can't
00:15:42
anything you have control over in terms of capital allocation of your own personal funds you no longer have control over and if you do you're kicked
00:15:48
out there is a criticism that like people who are good at money won't go into Congress but I'm like yes they they do
00:15:54
it for other reasons and by the way it's become a rich person's game because it costs I think I was on a panel last
00:16:00
night he saying it used to cost a couple hundred,000 Trump for Congress. Now it's 8 or N million. So only rich people can
00:16:06
afford it or people with access to funds and then they're on the hook for rich people, right? So it creates a really
00:16:12
bad situation. It's not going to discourage any something like that would not discourage anyone from running and it creates a
00:16:19
distraction and then you feel like you've got to engage and play in this game because you're, you know, the representative from Kentucky is making
00:16:25
millions of dollars while you're not. And also after taxes,
00:16:30
that amount of money if you're trying to support two homes. Yeah. And I look, these people deserve to make more money. They're impressive important
00:16:37
people doing important work. Yeah, I would agree. And if we're going to have zero tolerance, which we should here, we we
00:16:43
have to pay them really well. Or give them a housing allowance. Like, you know, they could create um like a
00:16:49
congressional apartment building and then we could have a reality show. We could make Oh my god, that would be hilarious.
00:16:55
What happens when Ted Cruz you know, runs into Bernie Sanders in the shower.
00:17:01
Romances. There you go. It would be so good. They could like do that. Spark fly
00:17:07
for the Congress people. They could for the younger ones. Why not? Some of them do live together, don't they? Do something fun like make a thing of
00:17:14
it. Like it would be kind of or give them housing allowances or something. I don't know. They get all kinds of perks.
00:17:20
Um but uh but this is this is just ridiculous. Josh Holly, we're behind you. Even though I'm not really behind
00:17:27
you. Um, every time they do a picture of Josh Holly, it's the it's the insurrectionist. Like
00:17:32
the pump. The fist bump. The fist bump. Yeah, that guy's never escaping.
00:17:37
I'm with you. I'm with you. Running from Run. These people are [ __ ] crazy.
00:17:44
Run. I'm with you. I'm with you. I'm right behind you. I'll be I'll be in
00:17:51
Rahobit. Josh, you're never going to be president. Just FYI. Anyway, um let's go
00:17:56
on a quick break. When we come back, Joe Rogan has some criticism for President Trump. He's ramping up. He's turning
00:18:01
into a San Francisco lesbian. Support for this show comes from United Airlines. Let's skip the travel myth.
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your airport. Book United Airlines through Newark with confidence. According to A14 on-time performance and
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July 14th, 2025, copyright 2025, United Airlines, Inc., all rights reserved.
00:18:32
Scott, we're back. Joe Rogan is turning into a real thorn in the side for President Trump. Let's listen to what he
00:18:37
had to say about Trump's administration's crackdown on immigration and international students. Let's listen to a clip.
00:18:43
It's an overcorrection, right? And it's also like they have a mandate I think of like 3,000 people a day they want to
00:18:49
deport just you know you're gonna a bunch of people that are totally innocent are gonna get caught up in they
00:18:55
have been right you know they have been a lot of people that have have green cards a lot of people that are supposed to be over here
00:19:00
and then they're kicking students out that like write articles they don't like Yeah that's nuts [ __ ] crazy.
00:19:07
And that's not all. Let's listen to a clip of Rogan talking uh about Trump's reaction to all things Epstein. This
00:19:12
one's a line in the sand because this is one where there's a lot of stuff about,
00:19:17
you know, when we thought Trump was going to come in and a lot of things are going to be resolved. We're going to
00:19:23
drain the swamp. We're going to figure everything out and when you have this one hardcore line in the sand that
00:19:28
everybody had been talking about forever and then they're trying to gaslight you on that. So, it's interesting. I'm not sure if
00:19:35
Rogan's disapproval will carry as much weight as his endorsement did. Uh, I don't know. What do you What do you
00:19:40
think of this? I think it's actually, you know, it's sort of late, you know, Joe. Of course, he was going to do this.
00:19:47
Um, he seems seems kind of fatuous to what Trump is, but I don't know. What do
00:19:52
you think? I don't know. I think that I I do think it matters. Um, yeah, a lot of
00:19:58
when I speak to young men, I I feel like a lot of times they're reading back a script from Joe Rogan. I I think
00:20:05
I think arguably Joe Rogan in terms of young men has more influence because
00:20:10
he's seen as an honest broker. I think the most I don't want to call it dangerous thing about Joe Rogan, but I think Joe is like it's not an act. I
00:20:18
think Joe is genuinely he's not reading he's not Fox News reading from a teleprompter saying smart manic has been
00:20:23
weaponized by Hugo Chavez because we told you to say it. I think what he's saying he believes and also the
00:20:28
manosphere if you will or you know maledominated or male ccentric podcasts
00:20:34
there has been a significant tide shift. So Shane Gillis, Andrew Schultz,
00:20:39
Andrew Schultz, all these guys who quite frankly if you were to point to one person
00:20:45
uh who potentially put Trump in office, it would be number one would be Musk,
00:20:51
right? Quarter of a billion dollars. great platform, very smart.
00:20:57
And then probably number two is Joe Rogan. And the stat I love is that
00:21:02
if you want to talk about how brilliant the Trump campaign was and how non-billiant the Harris campaign was, and it kind of reminds me of Montani and
00:21:09
Cuomo, Trump went flew right into the manosphere, which was not only good for positioning, but by going on Rogan that
00:21:15
one time with 40 million YouTube videos or views and 15 million audio downloads,
00:21:21
for Harris to get the same level of exposure, she would have needed to go on MSNBC, CNN, and Fox every night for 3
00:21:27
hours for two weeks. So quite frankly, whatever, unless it was going to take her two weeks to get down and back from
00:21:34
Austin, she should have done it. So these guys carry a ton of weight and
00:21:40
there has been a real significant shift. And it's a combo of all of them. It's not just Rogan. I mean, Schultz has been
00:21:46
particularly vehement about it and Shane Gillis is now mocking him, making fun of him. Then you have the South Park guys
00:21:53
on his ass cuz they're considered pretty right in the m like not in the middle but they're they don't beholden to
00:21:59
anything. Yeah, honey badger don't give a [ __ ] They're they're they go after everybody but they're particularly going after
00:22:05
Trump with that penis which wasn't AI. Um but what what do you think they're I mean it's interesting because he's he's
00:22:11
moved from the Epstein things which I think animates a lot of these people. A lot of them are angry about the Epstein stuff and now it's moved to colleges and
00:22:20
deportations which they're like why can't these you know um kids say what
00:22:25
they want as long as they're not violent. I think Rogan said that he's like if they're not violent they can write whatever they want. So that that
00:22:31
is consistent with their thing of the left uh quashing them but now they're
00:22:37
applying it to Trump. Yeah. What was again there was I thought of you last night. There was another
00:22:42
weapon of mass distraction yesterday. Something ridiculous, something outrageous. What was it yesterday? Oh, it'll come to me.
00:22:47
Giving Diddy a pardon. Oh, there. Exactly. Yeah. Megan Kelly. Diddy a pardon. Okay. That's that's what
00:22:54
the president should be focused on right now. I mean, I'm telling you, every day again, we got to we the moment he does
00:23:01
this [ __ ] you got to start referring to Diddy as Diddy Epstein. You just got to make you got to let them know.
00:23:06
Uh folks, we're not we're not falling for it. If you're sawing your assistant in half and expect us to look over here,
00:23:11
we're not going to do it. We want to see you pulling the rabbit uh you know out of your coke pocket, not out of the hat.
00:23:17
Yeah. And a lot of people aren't going along. Like Rogan is is pretty has been pretty Trump positive. And he's he's
00:23:23
doing it a lot unlike I'm interested to see what he'll what he'll move on to of something he doesn't like. Right. But
00:23:30
there's quite a lot. It's not just one thing. And as I said at the beginning of this whole thing and I and let me tell you, I think Elon started this this
00:23:36
Epstein thing. He absolutely by that tweet he did. Um, but I think Epstein is
00:23:41
at the core, as I said, the pillar. But then there's all these other things that are consistent with what they said
00:23:46
before, which was, why can't those students say what they want, even if I don't agree with those students? Why
00:23:52
can't humor, right, when he's threatening all kinds of entertainers and stuff like that? Why can't they say
00:23:58
what they want, even if they're left? Um, and I think they are consistent in that. They should be consistent in that
00:24:04
regard. They should if they say people should say what they want, it should apply to the left and the right. Right.
00:24:10
And so that was interesting when Rogan did that. I'm curious what he'll do next. Well, they can they can claim and I
00:24:16
actually I think it's good for the medium. No matter what happens, CNN and Fox, you kind of have a sense for which
00:24:22
way they're going to go on every story. Exactly. These guys, to their credit, are saying,
00:24:27
I, you know, I was wrong. I do not support these policies. A couple of them have said, I regret voting for them. And
00:24:34
I think the immigration raids really rattled a lot of them because I think a lot of them know, you know, are exposed
00:24:40
to it, see how cruel it is. The thing is I don't get is it's ineffective. There were actually more people being deported
00:24:47
during the Obama administration that are being deported right now. They just worked more cohesively or seamlessly
00:24:53
with local law enforcement, right? And this just feels like, okay, well, because they they are going after
00:24:58
people who are like gardeners and in Home Depot lot. They're kind of clottish about it in a lot of ways. They're doing
00:25:04
it so performatively with the masks and the whole Christine. Did you see that
00:25:09
picture of Christine Nome riding around a horse with her alleged paramore Cory Lunowski?
00:25:15
I didn't. I'd like to though. Argentina. They're just riding horses around. You're like, what are you doing there? What are you doing?
00:25:21
She's in Argentina riding horses. I something like that. I'm here for it. I think I've decided Christine is super hot and I the whole
00:25:28
like thing Ice Barbie is so strange. It's like what president from that I'm
00:25:34
like trying to figure out where this is going. It's straight to it's straight to the White House or straight to Cinemax.
00:25:39
Either way, I'm here for it. A reality show, right? I'm sort of like what are you doing? Sarah Palin in Alaska.
00:25:46
Oh, that didn't work out so well for him. Yeah, that's not going to work out for you, Christie, because you're a lady. Doesn't work out for ladies. I'm sorry.
00:25:53
it just doesn't it's not going to work out. Anyway, speaking of ladies, and she's not a lady, Jane Maxwell has
00:25:59
offered uh to testify before Congress in the Epstein situation, but only with
00:26:04
conditions that include immunity. Um, and on Tuesday, President Trump told reporters that Epstein stole Virginia
00:26:11
Gay, one of Epste's accusers, from Maraago, who died by suicide in April following a period of serious health
00:26:17
issues. Uh she was the 17-year-old involved that Prince Andrew allegedly uh
00:26:22
abused. Um paid off, I think. Um anyway, she was she was one of the more
00:26:28
outspoken ones and had a very tragic life. Uh she worked in Mara Lago in the spa and um Gelain Maxwell got her to
00:26:35
come over to his house. And President Trump keeps changing his story of why he got in a fight with Epstein. First it
00:26:41
was because he some real estate thing, then it was cuz they found him creepy. and now it's cuz he stole stole. The use
00:26:48
of the word stole around sex trafficking sort of says it all to me or I didn't have the privilege to go down to to
00:26:55
Epstein Island which was a crazy word to use. Um he's just continues to every day
00:27:00
to dig himself into another hole and keep this story alive. Like I said, it's
00:27:05
almost suicidal. It's weird um on his behalf to continue to As for Gelain
00:27:11
Maxwell, she deserves nothing. I I said on CNN that you know what do what does
00:27:16
she want? Coco and a warm blanket. Give me a break. She needs to stay in jail. If they give her immunity or diddy
00:27:22
immunity, it's it will continue. This story for Trump will will never go away
00:27:27
and it's already not going away. Yeah, he's he's really got and that's
00:27:32
why he just comes across as so guilty here because he's got such weird judgment. You know, he said that he
00:27:38
wishes Gelain Maxwell. He didn't wish any of the victims well. He wishes her well and then he says, "Oh, you know the
00:27:48
why he's disappointed or offended by Epstein. He took his employees stole."
00:27:53
Yeah. I'm like, "Okay, so that's that's why he want don't want to be associated with this guy like were any of his other
00:28:00
activities that were reported and wildly covered. Did any of those offend problematic?" No, it was that he hired uh you know his
00:28:07
valet for under under Mara Lago. It's like, okay, you're you're kind of missing the forest
00:28:13
for the trees here. So, he continues to act like someone advised him to try and act as guilty as possible. The idea of a
00:28:20
what effectively would be a pardon, which is what immunity immunity would offer almost. It's it's different
00:28:26
clemency for Gain Maxwell. It's like, well, I again this why are they speaking to her
00:28:34
now? the only reason, the only motivation to speak to her now is the desire to clear the president. There's
00:28:40
always been a desire to find out what exactly happened here and who was involved. And if you weren't able to get
00:28:46
that information and offer whatever it is you needed to offer back then, then
00:28:51
the only reason that you logically going to derive from this uh or deduct from this is that you're
00:28:57
hoping she will say something to exonerate the president because the only thing that's happened is there's new heat on the president. And so I don't
00:29:04
the whole thing really sticks. It won't exonerate him now because it looks like he's doing that, right? So it'll look like mixes in perception.
00:29:10
So it's weird. I find this the strangest thing. I actually believe when everything the White House says I don't
00:29:17
believe. But he say I kind of believe that's what he think he's mad at him for taking stealing an a person who works in
00:29:25
the spa. That's what he doesn't care about these women. He doesn't care about the abuses. He cares that someone stole
00:29:31
his employee. That's I actually believe that when he says that. I don't think he's making it up in that. I think this
00:29:38
adult old man thinks that he's like all pissed that he stole one of his employees. Yeah. I don't see that.
00:29:44
Yeah. The whole thing the whole thing is just something I have to say a lot of people who didn't
00:29:50
think it was a conspiracy theory or just were not really paying attention to it many years on are Oh, that's a noise
00:29:57
outside your apartment. Um Oh [ __ ] I forgot to call 911 back and tell me you're not intruders. I know
00:30:02
you. Oh, God. No, but don't There's a strange lady rifling through my things and mumbling to herself.
00:30:09
I'm taking that buttery coat. That buttery coat of I have I have somebody has slaughtered several
00:30:15
dozen animals who were llamas that were only raised on like Japanese wagu rice. I I went through that skin phase where I
00:30:22
couldn't buy enough like leather coats. Anyways, have at it. Yeah, have at it. But if you borrow my code,
00:30:29
it means if you borrow my code, it means I then borrow your car and we're going steady. That means we're going steady.
00:30:35
We are going steady. Oh, my first girlfriend, Melanie Kagan, who's when you wore your coat. Oh, yeah. And she my Letterman coat. I I
00:30:42
was a Letterman a D1 athlete. And then this is college. College. You know it, baby. Do you have any clothes from people? I I
00:30:48
still have clothes from people I went out with. Yeah. I mean, David Hasselhoff still has a few of my loose sweatshirts, but
00:30:55
that's another story, Cara. That's another story. That was a loving relationship. So
00:31:00
beautiful and poignant. But if you weren't married, I'd love you to go out with Paul Giamati. I think that would be good for you.
00:31:06
Oh, wait. Hold on. Hold on. Let's unpack that. The the person you have decided is for
00:31:13
me is Paul Giamati. Oh my god. I'd totally like to hang out. I'm totally down if Paul Giamati can be
00:31:19
Emily Ratikowski. Has she asked about me? No. Seriously, she has asked about me, right? No, she has not. She's totally asked
00:31:26
about me. Nobody who looks like Emily Ratows. You know who asked me about you? Let me tell you. Here we go. Men. Sure. Michael
00:31:33
asked me about you. The guy you debated in Detroit, uh, this lovely guy, Chuck Roa, I was on a panel with ask me. Men
00:31:40
ask me about you. They have such a man crush on you. It's disturbing on men.
00:31:45
Well, tell them to swing by. Why Why shouldn't they come by my apartment? This is what women say to me, including
00:31:51
attract very attractive women. They're always like, "Oh, Scott." Oh, God. That's That's all they do.
00:31:56
Scott, I want to [ __ ] him. It's, "Oh, Scott." No, it's literally like, "I need to That reminds me. I need new mace cartridges."
00:32:03
Yeah. But men are like, "He's so dreamy. I
00:32:08
love that, Scott. He's so dreamy." You bring up my name and like the next sense where women are like, you know, I'm thinking about like just having sex
00:32:14
with women from this point forward. I don't think we need men. I don't think we need men. That's so true. There's I haven't had a
00:32:21
woman say she's hot for you. men I have heard say off. Any Paul Giamati call us
00:32:26
be great. That's self. I know it's self. All right, we have to move on. We at the Trump tariffs tariffs
00:32:32
and Jerome Powell has a set. Let's just say at the time of this taping, President Trump says he will not extend
00:32:37
the latest August 1 tariff deadline if the president reportedly plans to sign new executive orders after we tape imposing higher tariffs on several
00:32:44
countries that have not reached deals. He's particularly mad at Brazil. Um the administration has managed to get only
00:32:49
eight deals done in 120 days but with a number of partners. In the last few days, Trump has announced a 25% tariff
00:32:56
on India with a penalty for over reliance on Russian energy and military equipment. South Korea has made an offer
00:33:01
to buy down the 25% it faces. He's interested in hearing it. Um uh one of
00:33:07
the things that uh that it's interesting is whether he's going to extend that deadline. Uh fear not everyone. Treasury
00:33:13
Secretary Scott Bessent who seems to be living his best life as Trump's favorite person told corporate America it's quote
00:33:19
not the end of the world if these tariffs are on for days or weeks. Meanwhile, the Fed held interest rates steady as I said on Wednesday for the
00:33:25
fifth meeting in a row as the Commerce Department reported that the US company grew at a stronger than expected pace.
00:33:30
But there's lots of troubling things in the report actually and now inflation today just ticked up a little bit. Um,
00:33:36
and so Powell seems to be waiting till September to see the impact of the tariffs, which I think is probably a
00:33:42
good thing to do. Um, so what do what do you think about what's happening? In in some cases, some of the countries are
00:33:48
saying what he said happened didn't happen. Obviously, a lot of these numbers are going to be paid by American
00:33:54
consumers in the in the end. Um, any thoughts on this? The only thing you know you're going to
00:34:00
get, first off, none of them I hate that they call them deals. They're all frameworks that they can put out a press
00:34:05
release and in the press release is some giant number that is uninforceable specifically the amount of money they're going to invest in the US.
00:34:11
Yes. Thank you. So I hope that I hope we just get through this get on it. Um you know I I
00:34:18
saw someone on Bill Maher a very intelligent woman saying that terrorist she's like why said to Bill why do you
00:34:23
want why are you against making American workers more productive? kind of like wrapping themselves in the flag. And
00:34:29
folks, let me just remind you that free trade or tariffs reversely correlated to economic growth. They telling American
00:34:35
consumers that they have to pay more money for a Japanese car such that they get a shitty car for 40,000 instead of a
00:34:41
great car for 30,000. That not only makes us consumers less prosperous, you
00:34:47
know, paying more for shittier things, but it also makes us less competitive because we don't need to compete. So,
00:34:54
and I'm going to talk about this um in my uh prediction, but Figma, this design
00:35:00
uh company is going public and it was supposed to be acquired by Adobe, the fact that it wasn't because the
00:35:05
regulators block the deal is going to make that market much more competitive. And so, when all you're doing is making
00:35:12
things less competitive in the short run for companies because they have the advantage of taxing foreign companies, you make our companies less competitive.
00:35:18
You make our consumers less prosperous. And it has been shown that over the medium and long term it decreases uh
00:35:25
productivity and the the GDP numbers were really strange. I don't know if you saw those but the GDP numbers
00:35:31
it was so this was the strangest thing that came came out of the GDP numbers. You subtract or you add to GDP or excuse
00:35:36
me you subtract out of GDP imports because that is economic activity or production that took place offshore.
00:35:42
Uh imports were down 30% yearonear like 34%. I mean, it's not even that that
00:35:48
that the prices are too high or that American consumers don't want them, but foreign companies that build businesses
00:35:54
importing products into the US, making our lives more prosperous and our products less expensive and our, you know, better quality of life have kind
00:36:01
of stopped because they don't know how to plan. They don't even know how to price stuff. They don't know what it means. They don't know, you know, they
00:36:06
don't know what the demand's going to be because they don't know what these tariffs are. So, I'm at the part of the program now where I just hope for the
00:36:13
purposes of just getting back to work that they get a quote unquote a bunch of these frameworks done and all these
00:36:19
nations are learning. Yeah. Agree to agree to the tariff and then announce
00:36:25
a a trillion dollars in investment in the United States over the next 10 years which will is not enforceable.
00:36:30
That's what happened with all the tech companies. Remember they were like we're going to invest and then they never did. That's the thing. And so Trump can tout
00:36:37
a deal. One of the things Richard Quest, who I like on CNN, was so frustrated trying to explain it. I love him. Yeah,
00:36:44
that guy. He's great. But he the point he was making is the 15% is getting eaten by these companies. They're just
00:36:50
going to take the cost. And you'll see numbers like Ford or GM, they had the first time since 2023, Ford is losing
00:36:57
money, which it wasn't. It was doing well. Um, they'll start they'll eat the cost because it's low enough, but
00:37:02
eventually they won't. Second thing is consumers will pay for this in the end. like not the money that's going to the
00:37:08
treasury and and it just it just it literally these and he's like these are he said the same thing he did these are
00:37:14
frameworks they are not the thing and so you'll never how are you going to know if they're going to invest like
00:37:20
just saying they're going to invest they will not do it and so it's all nonsense and and kind of unnecessary
00:37:27
um shaking of the economy for for no reason. Now, that's not to say that
00:37:32
being tough on people or sort of playing game of chicken with some of these countries where it's not asynchronous
00:37:37
trade is not a bad idea, right? Like we always say that. Um, but one of the things that's important to understand is
00:37:44
that they're it's not in place. It's just not like a lot of things with Trump. It's a lot of vapor wear. And
00:37:51
that's a that is the real problem. And so when Jerome Powell comes in and says, "We're just going to wait about cutting
00:37:57
interest rates." See what happens. We'll see what happens. That's the adult thing to do. And of course, Trump
00:38:03
attacks him because this doesn't work without an acquiescent Fed, right, to to try to feed this thing. Um, and and he's
00:38:10
not going to be acquiescent. And interestingly, with the Fed meeting, two of the Trump appointed uh people voted
00:38:18
against the the the keeping it the same rate. Um, so now it's totally politicized, which are which are good
00:38:24
economic decisions. Powell, this guy has a set. He really
00:38:30
he's he's he's does he's doing exactly what you're supposed to do when you have a Supreme Court justice or long tenure
00:38:37
appointments. The reason we do that is such that we get stuck with some bad people sometimes. But the reason we do
00:38:42
that is such that they can be independent-minded. But one of the one of the biggest risks I think to our economy is so the definition of robust a
00:38:50
robust industry is for example the fast food industry. If McDonald's goes out of business, you're still going to be able to get $1,800 of calories for five
00:38:57
bucks, right? because there's a ton of competitors. If JB if Jaime Diamond called the president right now and said,
00:39:03
"Oh, we had some rogue trader. He levered up, got past our compliance, and
00:39:08
if I don't get $500 billion by tomorrow, we're out of business." That existential
00:39:15
or systemic risk, because JP Morgan is so big now and so powerful, they have become, in my opinion, too big to fail.
00:39:21
That makes an economy weaker. We now have seven companies that represent over 40% of the S&P's value, of which
00:39:28
represents 50% of the world's value. So you have essentially 20% of the market cap of the world is tied up in seven
00:39:35
companies. And what these tariffs are doing, there's so many second order effects here. Is that okay, you know
00:39:40
who's not affected by the tariffs? You know who's just champagne and cocaine right now? Tech companies. Yeah, we will
00:39:46
talk about that. But but if you're an investor, are you going to invest in the
00:39:51
70% of companies in the S&P 500 that are subject to some sort of tariff risk? You're like, "Oh, [ __ ] it. Just buy
00:39:56
meta, right? I don't know how to predict this. I don't know how to model against it." So, what do we have? Even greater
00:40:02
concentration of wealth and of market cap in a small increasingly small group
00:40:07
of companies and people who will not be able to deliver in the end. actually they can't keep up with
00:40:13
the with the with the numbers. It but but but is like that's the last
00:40:19
thing. Does the president really think it's good economic policy to basically transfer market capitalization from Dowo
00:40:24
Chemical and Ford to Alphabet and Meta. Is that what we need right now? That's not
00:40:29
these companies. The opposite. It's the opposite. These great American companies that are either in manufacturing or consumer
00:40:35
products that are subject to these tariffs and subject to this insecurity and chaos. That's kind of those are the
00:40:42
companies quite frankly that is a really good point to keep and like they tend to be they don't pay their people as well but they
00:40:48
tend to employ many more people and it's like okay if we were going to do any economic policy that transferred
00:40:54
capital or advantage back from one group of companies to others for a more robust market quite frankly a stronger more
00:41:00
diverse economy we would probably want to let some air out of the AI tech balloon
00:41:05
and transfer it across the rest of our great American companies that's not what they're doing and this is effectively saying to every
00:41:11
institutional manager, "Fuck it. Just invest in tech." That's right. All right. Well, then
00:41:16
actually, we'll get to that. We'll go on a quick break. When we come back, we'll talk about Microsoft and Meta's earnings, which were blockbuster. Scott,
00:41:22
we're back with earnings news. Microsoft just reported a blockbuster quarter with total revenue surging 18% year-over-year
00:41:28
to 76 billion. But as Microsoft doubles down on AI, the capital spending is climbing up 27%. Meta also had a huge Q2
00:41:36
with $47 billion in revenue, up 22% and 18 billion in profit, up 36%. Meta's AI
00:41:44
hiring spree also acknowledged in the earnings with compensation for technical talent in priority areas cited as the
00:41:50
second largest driver of cost growth. These big deals they're paying all these AI researchers. Um what how do you look
00:41:57
at this? Are these AI bets paying off or it's it's advertising for Meta. It's their old business that's doing well,
00:42:03
probably helped by AI, but not in the way Zuckerberg is spending. Um, any
00:42:08
thoughts on on this? They're really they really doubling down on AI, obviously, whether it's it's research costs or
00:42:15
talent costs or just simple investment in compute. Um, any thoughts on these two earnings? So, you forwarded me an
00:42:22
article from the Wall Street Journal that was really fascinated and it said basically this is the weirdest GDP report we've seen in a while because
00:42:28
when imports go down 30%, it sort of artificially juices GDP
00:42:35
and um if you're thinking about I mean these numbers well one okay so the
00:42:42
numbers the traditional business is just staggering it's just they continue to perform they're using AI for better
00:42:48
targeting and I think every media planner in the world is storing up their arms and saying just spend more money on
00:42:53
Meta or or on Alphabet. They also have the benefit of the market has decided that
00:43:00
it loves capex in AI. The market has decided that AI is going to be enormous
00:43:05
and whoever wins the war, it's going to be a function of brute force and that is as represented by capex. So Oracle, when
00:43:13
Oracle went public, Larry Ellison I think owned about 24%. He now owns
00:43:18
closer to 41%. Well, how is that possible? They would use their cash flow to buy back shares, thereby decreasing
00:43:25
the amount of shares and increasing the relative ownership of people who own shares. Except about 2 years ago, he
00:43:31
decided, no, it's now a capital war in AI. We need to be a distant number two of infrastructure to Nvidia. We're going
00:43:37
to massively spend in capex. Arguably, that was one of the better business decisions of the last 10 years. And
00:43:43
Larry Ellison, you want to talk about elephants can dance, is now the second wealthiest person in the world. And the
00:43:49
most crazy stat from that article, and I still can't believe it's true, but it
00:43:55
stated in that article that there was more spending last quarter on AI investments than there was
00:44:03
consumer spending. Yeah. So, think about this. 355 million people in the US.
00:44:09
Everything they're spending money on their their Netflix, their Starbucks, going to see F1, all the all consumer
00:44:16
spending was less. Yep. Than the investments in AI. I mean, my
00:44:22
god, that is I know the numbers are just massive. That is just staggering. But Meta up 12%
00:44:29
in pre-market earnings beat of a massive earnings beat 714 versus 589 revenue of
00:44:36
47.5 billion expected 44.8 8 a 22%
00:44:41
year-on-year. And one of the things that was so impressive is they grew their customer they they grew their customer
00:44:48
base or their users by 6% which may not sound like a lot but when your base is 3.5 billion that's
00:44:53
there's no other game in town. There's no other game in town. They added they added the population of Brazil to their user base uh year on
00:45:00
year. So, and in addition, the market loves this capex. They their capex is
00:45:06
spending was $17 billion, by the way. That's double what it was last year. It
00:45:12
is in and the market just loves it. They they well, someone has to pay for all those those young men that they're I mean,
00:45:19
billion dollar deals. They you know, whatever you say about Marco Zuckerberg, he goes for it, right?
00:45:25
and even if he made a mistake with Meta. And same thing over at Microsoft. The
00:45:31
question is what when does it not pay off? Like here you have Grock doing it. You've got Amazon doing it. Amazon just
00:45:38
paid even the New York Times $20 million a year for its stuff, which is nothing, which is peanuts. Um, you know, I just
00:45:45
think that this is a this is a arms race for these people and and it's being paid off in the market right now for them and
00:45:52
they're using that in order to to like goose themselves rather. And you're right there, everything is being shifted
00:45:57
over to these seven tech companies and nobody else. And so Ford and GM who have made strides are going to suffer. So
00:46:05
will John Deere. So will all the other companies at the expense of these people. Now, interestingly, Zuckerberg
00:46:11
had to put out one of his essays. These people love to put out essays and letters and vision manifestos. Um he
00:46:18
loves to do this and and they're always long and badly edited. But um he said AI super intelligence is now in sight. He
00:46:24
put out this letter and video outlining his vision for it was described by one outlet as a mini manifesto. Uh let's
00:46:31
listen to Mark Zuckerberg if we have to. A lot has been written about the scientific and economic advances that AI
00:46:37
can bring, and I'm really optimistic about this. But I think an even more meaningful impact in our lives is going
00:46:43
to come from everyone having a personal super intelligence that helps you achieve your goals, create what you want
00:46:49
to see in the world, be a better friend, and grow to become the person that you aspire to be. This vision is different
00:46:56
from others in the industry who want direct AI at automating all of the valuable work. blather. This is his
00:47:02
grow to the person you aspire to be. It's such he did this before on his
00:47:07
social media. I'm gonna be the person I aspire to be. Honestly, because of Mark Zuckerberg,
00:47:13
one time he called me when he wrote one of these ridiculous manifestos. He called me and asked me what when he was speaking to me what I thought of it. And
00:47:19
I said, "One, you need an editor. Two, I don't understand this this whole thing about community." He just was like,
00:47:25
"Social media will bring us together." like such [ __ ] and of course it didn't and I I was at the time I was
00:47:32
like this is such [ __ ] just just say you just want to make money on automating all our valuable work I'm
00:47:39
fine with that right but this is these people just aspire to be these visionaries and they are the smallest
00:47:45
intellect they have the smallest intellects and the least amount they just love to put these things out you
00:47:51
know Jamie you don't hear this from Jamie Diamond much right and who is by the way he's been meeting with President Trump which is a good thing like you
00:47:58
don't hear this nonsense from our smarter people in in our society because they don't feel the need to do remember
00:48:04
when Gates put these essays the road ahead it was so nonsensical like to do
00:48:09
this now one thing Zuckerberg did say which I agreed with but I didn't think he had to put on such such thing is he
00:48:16
said smart glasses will be the primary way people interact with AI of course he said that because he has a smart glass
00:48:21
business um and without them people will be at a cognitive disadvantage Do you
00:48:27
think you're going to be at a cognitive disadvantage without, you know, AI glasses? What do you think? Well, I mean, the idea, so these LLMs,
00:48:35
I've always said that the LLM is just a function of who we are, but unfortunately who we are in a certain medium. And I wish the LLM could crawl
00:48:43
the real world because I think generally speaking in the real world that people are lovely. But the fact is they're
00:48:48
crawling our complexion, our personality online, and it gets really ugly really
00:48:55
fast. And if this AI I've always said that companies were the closest thing I had to kids before I had kids. And that
00:49:01
is you conceive of them. They look, smell, and feel like you. They're sort of a corporate embodiment of the personality. And if if Llama, the LLM
00:49:11
from from Zuck, ends up being anything like
00:49:16
him, it'll be emotionally stunted, brilliantly efficient, and constantly
00:49:22
urging you to reconnect with your ex. I mean, it's just going to be such a weird
00:49:27
if this thing ends up like he when you heard that, didn't it sound AI
00:49:33
generated? It's like the nonhuman human because he's done it before. It's like so anodine. It is so I literally had
00:49:41
this bad memory for I was at my ex's house like Splick being on a couch and he called me and I got kicked out on the
00:49:47
couch. Talk to me about that because we were broken up. Do that too. No, we were No. So, it was just so
00:49:54
[ __ ] ridiculous. It was like I remember going, "Oh my god, how could I get off this [ __ ] phone call with this idiot who just thinks who just
00:50:00
thinks he's a visionary?" Like, literally, no, there's so many visionaries. Like, John Malone's
00:50:06
recently written a book. He's a visionary. Like, he doesn't talk that much. And what he says is choice. These
00:50:12
guys can't stop [ __ ] talking and giving you their predictions of the future. It's ex like I want to hear it from you,
00:50:18
Scott. I don't want to hear it from this. Yeah. You got to give He is a visionary. He really is. But his vision is a legless
00:50:25
universe where people are cutting themselves. That's his vision. And unfortunately like I'm here to help you
00:50:30
achieve your goals, be a better friend, and grow a person you aspire to be. It's not about automating all your value
00:50:36
work. Mark, it's about automating all your valuable work and so you can make money off of it. Could just say that
00:50:41
like I like honestly this this nonsense of being Facebook is not going to make you a is not going to make you a better
00:50:47
friend. it. Facebook isn't gonna allow you to create what you want to see in the world and grow to be a better
00:50:52
person. And neither does Mark Zuckerberg care about that. Like, and then, oh, by the way, buy my glasses. Like,
00:51:00
if if I asked AI to give me an image of Mark Zuckerberg that defines who he is,
00:51:06
I feel like it would be, Granted, I this might be the edible speaking, but it would be a guy at a really sad
00:51:13
malt shop sucking up the world's user data through a straw. And every time he made eye contact with you, he'd
00:51:19
apologize and look away. I just think this guy is so unusual,
00:51:24
so strange, dangerous, and and he to his credit, he is really he is
00:51:30
actually smart enough to I think he knows he realizes it. So he brings in really likable people, whether it's Nick
00:51:36
Kle or Cheryl Samberg. But just getting back to I just want to talk a little bit about earnings. I I
00:51:41
was so blown away by this quarter's earnings, just the amount of capex these guys are throwing at it. I think
00:51:47
Microsoft may be the organization as of today that has invested more money, more
00:51:53
capital in the future than any organization in history with the exception of countries during war. And
00:51:59
by the way, it's paying off. They're up 8% of pre-market trading. They blew away their earnings, 365 versus 337. The
00:52:06
revenue is 76.5 billion versus 73.8 expected. Revenue was up 18%
00:52:12
year-on-year. And then its cloud-based unit, Azure, grew 39% this year. This
00:52:19
that is just so if Microsoft basically if you applied the same price to sales
00:52:24
ratio to its cloud unit, it would be a $1 trillion business. And right now it's
00:52:29
se it's a $75 billion revenue business. And they're planning to spend 30 billion
00:52:35
on capital next quarter. That's up 50% from the same time last year. And if it kept constant, it would work out to be
00:52:42
$120 billion. And that means right now the the category that is getting the
00:52:48
most capex of any category in the world is AI. And the company spending the most
00:52:54
is is is uh is Microsoft. Microsoft is right now spending more money on AI than
00:53:00
I think almost any organization in history has spent on anything with maybe the exception of a percentage of GDP
00:53:06
what Britain and Russia have spent during wartime or something like this. It is this is Meta's quarter I think is
00:53:13
the biggest investment by a private company in history on anything and it's
00:53:18
paying off. This company these companies I mean it's just this tariff [ __ ]
00:53:24
these companies while Ford is trying to figure out how many times a windshield wiper comes across or not from Canada or
00:53:30
Mexico and how to [ __ ] build their business and estimated and spend time kneecapping them while these guys
00:53:36
then you have these guys that are just running flat out and just killing it.
00:53:42
Just literally running away. They have nothing in their way. Like they never have anything in their way. Like Ford
00:53:48
and GM and John Deere, they have things in their way. These guys have no obstacles. So, or they have no
00:53:55
regulatory obstacles. They have no like they just buy their way into
00:54:00
seamlessness, which is their favorite part. But, but think about think about this is what these guys do. They're like, "Okay,
00:54:06
the two of them added $550 billion in market cap since 4
00:54:12
p.m. last night. Since since they announced their earnings last night, they've added $550 billion,
00:54:19
right, in market capitalization. So they just they just added oh let's add Netflix.
00:54:24
Let's add I would imagine the French stock market. I mean I people don't get a sense of the scale.
00:54:30
It's working for them. It's a it's a machine. Anyway, speaking of things that aren't a machine, let me let's finish up. Novo Nordisk shares are plummeting
00:54:37
after the company slashed its fullear guidance citing weaker than expected US growth for OMIC and WGOI. The stock
00:54:43
dropped 30% at one point on Tuesday, wiping out nearly $93 billion in market value. Novo Nordisk is blaming the
00:54:50
downturn on increased competition from Eli Liy's Munjaro and Zepbound as well as I think more significantly cheaper
00:54:56
GLP-1 knockoffs and which are not going away. They thought they were going away when the when the um when things got
00:55:03
settled in terms of manufacturing. The company also named a new CEO replacing previous CEO who was ousted by the board
00:55:09
in May as the stock was sliding. This is incredible. a product that is going to be so big and the company at the top of
00:55:15
it is just losing it. This to me is just one of these amazing stories um because
00:55:22
of all kinds of you know pressures from of course competition was going to get in here. It's only going to get bigger in the GLP1 market. But very quick
00:55:29
thoughts on this because it's the opposite here, right? An amazing opportunity that's been blown I guess.
00:55:35
Well, speaking of tariffs, the number one um import into the United States from Europe is pharmaceuticals.
00:55:40
And I said two years ago and I was mocked for this that I thought the more important technology in terms of on the ground change to society was not AI, it
00:55:48
was GLP1. You did. And what's happened here is that because of a shortage and kind of a loophole,
00:55:53
some companies have been able to offer compounded GLP1, which is basically like saying generics
00:55:59
and him stock went crazy because they were able to basically sell GLP1 drugs for a fraction of the price. And then as
00:56:06
you mentioned, Eli Liy's uh GLP1 offerings upbound uh is now more popular
00:56:12
than MGOI. I absolutely love this. I still think the category is going to grow like crazy. Only 8% of Americans
00:56:18
have taken a GLP1, but about but about a third of them are interested. I think if
00:56:23
you want it, I think the most accreative thing you could do for our economy right now would be to offer um access to GLP1
00:56:31
drugs for everybody. I think if you look at the obesity industrial complex that wants people to buy a sugar bomb, eat
00:56:36
shitty food, take advantage of the lowest like calories to cost that uh
00:56:42
people have to turn to in food deserts and then hand these people over to the companies producing statins, hip
00:56:48
replacements, knee replacements, uh kidney dialysis that effectively we're monetizing people's health and so much
00:56:55
of it is obesity related, especially the obesity related healthare costs, strokes are one to one and a half trillion a
00:57:01
Yeah. So, similar to what the equivalent of the FDA did in the UK, I think it's the UK health ministry, they said, "If you
00:57:07
are smoking, we'll send you for free an electronic nicotine delivery service." Because while that is not good
00:57:13
for you, it's much less bad for you than tobacco. I think over the medium and long term,
00:57:18
if you really wanted to have an impact on health care costs, you would make GLP-1 drugs accessible to absolutely.
00:57:24
So, what did this company, which is the front forefront of it, do wrong? Well, the the honest answer is I don't
00:57:29
know. I don't know if it's distribution or branding, but I would argue right now it's a great value because this is, if
00:57:37
not the market leader, one of the market leaders in what is a a a an unbelievable
00:57:42
uh business and category and it's trading at a PE because it's been hammered because it's not performing
00:57:49
well. Well, interesting. They did a deal with him and hers, right? And then they continued to sell the knockoff. So then
00:57:55
they got no fight with him and hers, right? So him and hers was selling the knockoff. and Novon Nord just did a deal with them and then it fell apart because
00:58:02
they were all they the continued selling of the compounds which need to be regulated by the way um is really
00:58:09
something that loophole really has you know these guys should have been riding off into the sunset because they kind of
00:58:15
but they don't because of these GLP1 knockoffs the market has a tendency to overpunish and overreward and the momentum right
00:58:21
now is against these guys so with their 5-year average PE has been 33 it's been as high as 50 today it's going open at
00:58:28
14.6. And when you think about the average S&P company trades at a PE of 26 to get the market leader, even though it
00:58:36
is underperforming expectations in GLP1 at 14.6 times earnings, I actually think
00:58:41
the stock is a buy right now. But there's no doubt about it. This is a national champion for Europe that is
00:58:47
quote unquote faltering or not living up to the expectations. But I actually think the stock has been overpunished.
00:58:53
And I have of all the technologies of the last 10 years, the one I'm most excited about is GLP1.
00:58:58
Absolutely. In fact, in doing this secret documentary, one of the things that every doctor has said is I asked
00:59:03
them what they think the most important developments technology in pharmaceutical and they're always like mRNA vaccines um
00:59:12
crisper and GLP-1s everyone. Then they they're like I don't know which one's more important and they all mention
00:59:18
GLP1s on a range of things because it's it's just beginning. We're beginning to understand it. I would agree with you. All right, we have to move on. Uh, one
00:59:25
more quick break. We'll get We'll be back for predictions. Okay, Scott. Uh, let's hear a prediction. I have a very
00:59:31
quick one very quickly. Kla Harris announced this week she's not running for governor of California. She also revealed she's written a book about her
00:59:37
campaign called 107 days. I'm not so sure she's going to run for president. I didn't think, as I told you, I didn't
00:59:42
think she was going to run for governor. I I don't think she's going to run for president. I think she knows that she
00:59:48
can't win and she has enough responsibility to understand that and um
00:59:54
and so I predict she will also not run for president. Well, I'm good at running other people's lives. If I was the vice president, I
01:00:00
would go be the chairman of a hedge fund, make a [ __ ] ton of money, and just wait for the next Democratic administration and be a Supreme Court
01:00:07
justice. Yeah, I think that's what I always say. I don't think she needs the risk of potentially losing. I'm not sure she'd win Governor. And
01:00:13
she just doesn't need that. She has to win by a lot if she wins, right? So if she even if she wins and
01:00:19
doesn't win by enough, she'll be she'll be tart. And Cal a lot of people describe California as ungovernable that that
01:00:25
it's just that special interest groups are so entrench people say this is a
01:00:30
even even Republican governors will say I would not want that job, right? That it's a very difficult I think I think
01:00:37
it's the right move. And also I don't think she wanted to do I don't I think she as as an executive she didn't want she she didn't have the fire. When
01:00:43
I talked her, you could tell likem it was like she's supposed to versus she wants to. So,
01:00:50
she's probably sick of running. I I hope Yeah. I don't I don't think she should. And And you know, I thought she did.
01:00:58
Good try. She did. She had a good try given the hand she was dealt. I think one of the greatest performances in
01:01:03
history by any athlete or person. when I saw her walking into that debate with the president and the amount of pressure
01:01:09
on her shoulders and the way she handled herself, I thought, great job. Great job.
01:01:15
Yeah, she deserves a lot of credit for trying to run a US style uh race
01:01:22
hamstrung by what was, you know, British election Yeah. Yeah. British election cycle time. I
01:01:28
mean, she had what, 111 days or something to try. She had she had Biden hanging around. I hope she's happy. I don't I don't
01:01:33
I hope so, too. I think she's a she's been a great public servant and I I just don't think she's gonna remember but she she'll be a she's literally the
01:01:40
first Supreme Court justice appointee of a Democratic presidency. She'll be doing a lot of work. That's a lot of work. Okay. What's
01:01:47
your prediction very briefly? Um so each year I pick an IPO of the year and that is an IPO I think is going
01:01:53
to do really well. Airbnb last year it was Reddit. Uh today I believe will be
01:01:58
the IPO of the year and I think that IPO is a company called Figma and it's a
01:02:04
design company and I've been building these my son's been trying to find a business and building these sites and it is just so obvious that design is the
01:02:11
salsa to the chip of all AI and that is whenever AI returns anything it just
01:02:18
looks so you know anodine generic just and if you look at
01:02:25
designers Right. Eh, if you look at, for example, IBM used to hire one designer for every 70 uh
01:02:31
programmers. Now it's now it's 1 to 10. Design is a booming field and seems to
01:02:36
be somewhat so far immune from AI. And Figma is essentially this kind of
01:02:43
collaborative software company. It's great for design. The thing that got me looking at it was my partner at PropG,
01:02:49
Katherine Dylan, who is a professor of the visual arts at Tish or professor of the arts, teaches a very popular course
01:02:56
called design language. And the first thing she does for her students is she asks them to download uh Figma and this
01:03:03
company. So there's this thing called the rule of 40 uh in SAS and that is you take your growth rate plus your profit
01:03:10
margins. The rule of 40 for Figma, its profit margins around 20% and its growth
01:03:16
this year was 44%, giving it a rule of 40 of 64, which puts it in the top five
01:03:22
of SAS companies. And just to give you a sense of how profitable and how economically efficient this company is,
01:03:28
Uber spent $21 billion between 2009 and 2021. Figma has raised
01:03:36
750 million but has 1.5 billion on its balance sheet meaning that it is it has
01:03:41
accreated $750 million. It works with between seven and eight of the 10 uh of
01:03:48
every Fortune 2000 companies. Adobe is sort of the Mercedes a little bit overengineered.
01:03:54
Um an amazing company. uh they have responded with competition with Adobe Express because Figma is known as being
01:04:00
more collaborative, but Figma is a little bit easier to use. Figma, I think, is more like Toyota. It's going
01:04:06
out at 18 times revenues. And the most interesting, I think, think about this
01:04:12
is this was the IPO that wasn't supposed to happen. And this IPO, which I think will offer investors an opportunity to
01:04:18
invest in a great company, more competition, corporations will be able to have better products. Great Adobe didn't get it. I think that
01:04:24
was a great move by the government. Exactly. Right. And we'll come back to that. 20 billion dollar valuation right now and also
01:04:30
$20 billion. Also from an employee standpoint, we're worried, you know, obviously about employees. When companies are acquired,
01:04:36
generally speaking, within a year, 18% of the employees have left of the company that was acquired. When a company goes public, usually they hire
01:04:43
increase their hiring in year one of 23%. And the reason this company is going public is not because of our
01:04:48
antitrust, not because of our regulation, but because of EU antitrust, which blocked this merger. So while
01:04:55
we're sitting on our hands letting companies concentrate power and become create a less competitive market, the EU
01:05:01
regulator said, "No, this makes no sense to take the numbers one and two player and let them let you know, let the
01:05:08
upstart." Figma is sort of to Adobe what AI is to search. Adobe is still going to
01:05:13
be an amazing business, but this is the new stuff. These guys are kind of the
01:05:18
the new guys. And the EU blocked this and as a result, Figma got a breakup fee
01:05:24
of a billion dollars in last year on top of it. Massively increase. It's just it's still shy of the Adobe
01:05:30
deal, but in terms of creating more billionaires, in terms of creating more economic value for people, this is the
01:05:36
right way to go as you're saying. Anyways, my prediction is the following. So, as as yesterday, I was literally
01:05:42
calling everybody I could to try and get shares in this thing for the IPO. Typically, they want to build a book of
01:05:48
somewhere between 8 and 12 times demand. And the way it works is institutions call and say, "I want a million shares." And they always vastly overestimate how
01:05:55
much they want because any decent IPO, you're going to get you're going to get cut back, right? You're going to get
01:06:00
trimmed back. So, you put in an overallocation. A really good IPO builds a book of 8 to 12 times the request for
01:06:07
the number of outstanding shares or the shares being issued. I found out yesterday that Figma was 40x overs
01:06:14
subscribed. And if you look at the companies going out this year, not only of IPOs, there's been fewer of them, but
01:06:19
the companies that have performed well are what I call it's not that they're not great companies, it's that they're
01:06:24
fashionable like Chime or Circle, like stable coin [ __ ] This is, in my
01:06:30
opinion, a real company. a real company that's a great company that's killing it that has
01:06:36
amazing economics, great products, great products. We haven't had many of those if any this year. So anyways,
01:06:43
my predictions is the following. Always dangerous to make predictions about stocks. This is not financial advice,
01:06:48
but this is what I have been trying to do. I have been trying my damnest to try and find shares in this thing because I
01:06:54
think the first trade today I think this thing closes up monstrously uh today and we're recording on a
01:07:01
Thursday morning. Uh but I think yeah, Figma is what I'll call the first great company to go public in
01:07:09
2025 and I think it's going to be seen as one of the better IPOs of the year. I'm really excited about this company and also it's a lesson
01:07:15
on the importance of antitrust and regulation. Who wins here? more employment, investors have an opportunity to invest in a pure play,
01:07:22
amazing company, corporations, more competition, more tax revenue. And thank
01:07:28
you EU, they actually said, "No, this is not a good idea. We would be better with two great companies, not one here." And
01:07:35
as a result, this company is now going public. It was supposed to be acquired 2 and a half years ago for 20 billion. It
01:07:41
was going to be acquired for 50 times revenues, but now investors will get a chance to invest at about 18 times
01:07:46
revenues. So, this is just a winwinwin. Anyway, uh thank you. That's an
01:07:51
excellent prediction. I love that one. Uh we want to hear from you. Send us your questions about business, tech, or whatever is on your mind. Go to
01:07:57
nymag.com/pivot to submit a question for the show or call 8551 pivot. Elsewhere in the Cara
01:08:02
and Scott universe this week, this week on Profy Conversations, Scott was with Ezra Klein, a New York Times columnist
01:08:08
and host of the Ezra Klein show. Let's listen to a clip. What's not working is the Democratic Party being leaderless and ruerless. Uh,
01:08:15
I'm not shocked that at the moment if you ask people in a poll who they'd vote for, like they don't really know what to
01:08:21
say. Like which Democrat? What do they know about them? But the Democratic Party is in a pretty shattered place.
01:08:28
I've had a little bit of more trouble than other people do, or let me put it differently. I'm a little bit less confident than other people seem to be
01:08:34
in interpreting those polls because one of the kind of structural characteristics of the past couple
01:08:40
decades is people's dislike of the parties is getting higher and higher and higher and it doesn't drive their voting
01:08:47
decisions in quite the way it has at other times but nevertheless they do not like the parties and so one of the reasons the Democratic party is very
01:08:52
unpopular right now is Democrats do not like it. Now, those people are not going to vote Republican, but they are pissed
01:08:59
off at the Democratic party, which has to them been ineffectual, which has to them been unable to stop uh the worst of
01:09:06
what Trump is doing, which has to them not come up with a message or come up with a set of leaders. It's going to
01:09:11
have to be a process of I mean, first it's going to be the midterms and they're going to have to figure out how to be in in opposition in a way that
01:09:17
coheres, but there's going to be a process of having to find leaders. Again, this is the first time the Democratic Party has been leaderless in
01:09:23
a very, very long time. Ezra is the kind of guy that wants to talk to you about his mushroom micro doing but first asks
01:09:28
if he can share his screen. You know it's that was a good interview. He's really
01:09:34
smart. He's really smart. I don't agree with him on everything but he's really smart. Um now Scott the time has come.
01:09:39
The time has come. You usually get testy by this time of year but Scottfree August is upon us.
01:09:45
It is. It is. It is upon us. You're I think you're like happier this year. You you usually get real testy and like,
01:09:52
you know, but you're you're not. I think it's Ezra Klein. Every time I listen to Ezra Klein, it's like
01:09:58
listening to a meditation app describing the the collapse of democracy. But how much are you going to miss me,
01:10:03
Scott? We have some. How much are you going to miss me? Really? A lot. A little. I don't miss anybody. I miss people when
01:10:10
I see them. Like I saw you come back. You're always to see me. Stop it. I miss my boys. Those are the only people I've ever missed in my life.
01:10:15
Okay. You miss me. What I do though, are you this way? I don't miss people and then I see them and I think, "Oh, I miss them." It's
01:10:21
like good to see them. I miss when you're not there. But we have some amazing co-hosts coming up, guest co-hosts. Mel Robbins, let them
01:10:28
lady who's amazing. She has one of the top podcast. Anthony Scaramucci, who was a big hit last year, is coming back.
01:10:35
Rachel Matto is coming and being replacing you, Scott. And I feel like, you know, things could happen.
01:10:41
Rachel Maddo. Rachel Matto and more. Isn't it weird? People want to replace me, but they don't want to be on with
01:10:48
me. Like, our guest quality goes up so dramatically. When you're not people like, "Yeah, I'm
01:10:54
fine to replace him because I know I'll do better. It's a low bar, but no one wants to come on."
01:10:59
Mad. Yeah. Secretary Clinton is going to be Jessica's co-host at Raging Moderates
01:11:05
when Oh, that's great. Yeah, I know. It's just amazing. Do you have any advice for these folks at all while you're away?
01:11:11
While I'm away? Yeah. Well, wherever you go, what do you have any advice for Mel Robbins or Jeramucci or Matto?
01:11:17
A lot of lesbian jokes. Just that that's that's my go-to. By the way,
01:11:22
if you listen to Ezra Klein's podcast Yeah. on one and a half speed. Okay.
01:11:28
It's like listening to It's like listening to a normal person describe how to ruin a dinner party.
01:11:34
Okay. Right. Any advice for co-hosts? Just lesbian jokes. That's your entire
01:11:40
bit of thing. Just a little nod to the making a lesbian joke. A little nod to the dog and a totally
01:11:47
profane uh not that funny, but because it's profane and not that funny. It's funny joke. It's just
01:11:53
okay. The left, all of these people, these people are somewhat left of the head of HR from the National Park
01:11:58
Service. So, our job on this podcast is to grab humor back for the progressives. So, be
01:12:05
inappropriate. Show some humor. We're all gonna be dead soon. Whoever you offend will get over it. let
01:12:11
them on that emotion and just have some fun. Have a great will miss you and like we'll catch up
01:12:17
when you get back and stuff like that and I will I will I will somehow come back stay at your apartment while you're
01:12:22
away. Anyway, uh that's the show. Thanks for listening to Pivot and be sure to like and subscribe to our YouTube
01:12:29
channel. Scott, read us out. Today's show is produced by Larara and Zoe Marcus, Taylor Griffin, and Kevin
01:12:34
Oliver. Ernie and Todd engineered this episode. Oh, Jesus Christ. I left 60 bucks in Uber fair on the c on the
01:12:41
counter. Thank you. No, I'll call you next week. Yeah, it's great to see you. Okay, who is this? Who is it? That's right.
01:12:49
Meet us out. There we go. Ernie Andrew engineered this episode. Thanks also to Drew Barrow's Mero and Dan Shelanda Shores
01:12:55
Vox executive producer of podcast. Make sure to follow Pivot on your favorite podcast platform. Keep in mind I'm
01:13:02
sitting in a bean bag right now and she's standing. Anyways, thanks for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Vox Media. You can
01:13:08
subscribe to the magazine nymag.com/pod. We'll be back next week for another breakdown of all things
01:13:15
tech and business. Tune in. Have a great August, G. Good to see you, too. Bye, everybody.
