00:00:00
It's sort of like the mobsters that turn on the top mobster at some point. You know, they always end up turning all
00:00:06
those people.
00:00:13
Hi everyone, this is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Cara Swisser
00:00:19
and it is 5:14 a.m. here at the Beverly Hills Hotel in
00:00:24
Los Angeles. And I had on my calendar that it was supposed to be we were supposed to be doing this at 7 a.m. So, yeah,
00:00:29
if I'm even a little even a little slower than usual, you'll have to forgive me. No, I think you had a nice relaxing
00:00:36
weekend after Do you miss me? First of all, that's the key question. I don't miss you, but I'm not sick of
00:00:41
you. I I after being together for seven nights in seven cities, I thought I thought it was pretty pretty seamless.
00:00:47
Pretty good. I know. Wasn't it? I We had a good time. I had a good time. What were your favorite parts?
00:00:52
Oh, wow. All of it. I have to say everyone's like what's your favorite city? I'm like I kind of liked all of
00:00:58
them. I didn't dis I thought everyone was interesting that we had on stage. I don't think there was a dud amongst um I
00:01:05
thought they were the crowds. The f you know my favorite part the audiences. I got to say they were so enthusiastic.
00:01:11
Anyway, we've got a lot to get to today including Jeff Bezos's new AI startup and Peter Teal's Nvidia selloff. This is
00:01:18
really a lot of people selling off. But first, President Trump is urging House Republicans to back the measure to
00:01:23
release the Epstein files because, quote, "We have nothing to hide." The House is set to vote on it today. Trump
00:01:29
also continues to call Congresswoman U. Congresswoman uh Marjorie Taylor Green a traitor. He announced late last week he
00:01:36
was cutting ties with Greens, referring to her as a ranting lunatic. Green says she's been contacted by multiple private
00:01:41
security firms after receiving a hot bed of threats. She told CNN that she supports Trump and his administration,
00:01:47
but is not backing away from the Epstein files. Let's listen. I I believe the country deserves
00:01:52
transparency in these files and I I don't believe that that rich powerful
00:01:58
people should be protected if they have if they have done anything wrong and and
00:02:04
so I'm standing with the women and I will continue to do my small part to get
00:02:10
the files released. She also noted that she was sorry uh and it was seemed sincere for being such a toxic force in
00:02:18
political discourse which was uh it was a it was a flatout apology and it well
00:02:23
well done and I know a lot of people are like let's not forgive her but I feel like you if you can't forgive the people who are saying they we're sorry I don't
00:02:30
know what you do. Um Epstein survivors released a powerful PSA on Sunday holding up a picture of their younger
00:02:36
selves from when they met Epstein. Very upsetting. It's time to bring the secrets out of the shadows. It's time to
00:02:42
shine a light into the darkness.
00:02:55
They're encouraging House Republicans to vote to release the files, which it looks like it was going to do. I think Trump um uh did did that because he knew
00:03:03
he wasn't going to win. And then he can make an excuse. either two things are going online, which is that he's
00:03:09
scrubbed the files, or two, that he's going to say there's an investigation of Democrats going on in the files, so um
00:03:17
so that they can't release them. In any case, he didn't want to lose so explicitly. Also, the latest Epstein
00:03:23
distraction, the Amelia Heheart records were just released, as actor Christopher Maloney put it, "Unless she went missing
00:03:30
while on a flight to Epstein's island, no one gives a shit." I love that guy. So, any thoughts on this? This is a
00:03:36
really interesting and continually developing story. I just don't have a feel I just don't
00:03:42
what I've never understood is why we think unless the files are some partisan
00:03:47
process where Trump appointees don't have access to them. I've always thought these things are going to be altered. I
00:03:53
don't this is a corrupt organiz you know his personal lawyer is a head of the DOJ
00:03:59
and an individual who's a sickopant and a total incompetent and just an acolyte
00:04:05
is the head of the FBI these people at the end of the day have ownership I
00:04:10
guess it's is it because why would we believe that these things won't be
00:04:16
altered when they well cuz that's a real I mean think at some point
00:04:22
I I think they to be thinking their own skins in the very end. They're not going to do anything for this guy. And it's
00:04:27
sort of like the mobsters that turn on the top mobster at some point. You know, they always end up turning all those
00:04:34
people if you've ever noticed. Yeah. And I I I just wouldn't put it past them. I think the crime here has
00:04:40
been so brazen. Um I what you know what I'm there was a couple times on Bill Mar
00:04:48
where I thought for the first time in my life on this show you know
00:04:53
everything does not demand my judgment and I have a couple a couple topics like on the penny and daylight savings time I
00:04:59
thought yeah you didn't have no view and no reason to speak now I feel like I'm I'm watching this but I
00:05:06
don't have a view on it the only thing I'll say is that you know Marjorie Taylor green
00:05:12
is sort of what happens when CrossFit and a Facebook comment section have a baby and then raise it on Monster Energy
00:05:19
drink which she has said and and resentment. Um I I don't know how to feel about her. It's weird.
00:05:26
You've always said and I I absolutely believe this. We have to embrace imperfect allies and MTG is acting I you know someone asked
00:05:33
us the joke as you said this who's the leader of the Democratic party and it's Marjorie Taylor Green right now. Yeah. And everybody loves a turn coat
00:05:39
because it's good for your own advantage. Yeah. But something has happened where she has
00:05:45
seen polling data and someone in her campaign has said we are going to do the mother of all pivots
00:05:51
here because there's a huge opportunity. Um and I feel like she's she's a real
00:05:57
canary in the coal mine for or the Trump campaign because y
00:06:03
she strikes me as being politically pretty savvy. Very much so. and she's done some
00:06:08
polling in her own district and found out that this positioning of turning on Trump for the first time makes sense
00:06:15
politically. So to me it's it's um it's just go ahead
00:06:21
from a branding perspective because again a lot of people are like I don't believe her and I my joke I was doing on
00:06:26
the tour was she's been visited by three ghosts recently like the the whole Scrooge pivot essentially uh in this
00:06:33
overnight conversion. Um, I don't know how long it's been going on and I would love some reporting from people actually
00:06:39
close to her. Um, if they could if reporters could get to those people of what happened here. Um, because she is
00:06:46
it's unbelievable actually even though I have to tell you she's incredibly persuasive and her I was I was a you
00:06:54
know she's she makes a very I was a QAnon conspiracy uh victim essentially which I have seen
00:07:01
it from you know I've seen it with my mom. I've seen it with lots of people, friends of mine, who have suddenly gone
00:07:07
crazy essentially. And and nobody's come back. That's the thing. But you think
00:07:13
about those people who were KKK and then they teach people not to do violence or you you of the remember the IRA people.
00:07:21
They were having all these nonviolent and at some point you've got to go and they were extraordinarily violent
00:07:26
people, these skin heads that then teach kids to not do that. At some point you
00:07:31
have to believe them, I guess. Um, but talk about the brand thing because you do have a sneaking suspicion. It's a
00:07:37
trick. And of course AOC said it was because of the Senate race, which I'm like, okay, that make Okay. Like I'm I'm
00:07:43
not offended by that necessarily. They they treated her like [ __ ] cuz she's a woman, right? Because they were like,
00:07:49
"We're not letting you in." And she had to change her brand because it wasn't working for her. But people do that every day, you know, whether they're in
00:07:55
marriages or you know, you got to change or you you you lose or you don't lose or
00:08:00
you I don't know because she's people are very mean about her turnabout. They did that same thing with George Conway
00:08:06
or Liz Cheney or anyone else in the but but George and Liz, it really wasn't
00:08:13
a brand quite frankly. Well, Liz, it was so let me back up. the the the the quoteunquote brand positioning. I would
00:08:19
argue Marjorie Taylor Green has gone for I want to come across like one of those women or the type of woman who will return a rotisserie chicken to Costco
00:08:25
after I've eaten half of it. She just has [ __ ] crazy weird energy and
00:08:32
uh it's that time it's like 5:30 here anyway. Did you do that? Did you do that once? Yeah. Well, I've heard that before.
00:08:38
Yeah. I've never heard of that but I like it. But where she's just so [ __ ] crazy. You're like, "Yeah, take it back. Just give her her money back."
00:08:44
Yeah. Right. Exactly. Um, but I would argue, okay, so first off, from
00:08:49
a branding standpoint, people appreciate what she's doing is actually poor
00:08:55
branding because, and I'm not saying it's not good for the country. I'm not saying it's not the right thing to do. It might end up being very strategic.
00:09:02
But the reality is people appreciate someone who is consistent even if they don't agree with the values they're showing consistency on.
00:09:08
So quite frankly, John Kerry ran everyone gives Vice President Harris a ton of [ __ ] Um, Senator Kerry or
00:09:16
Secretary Kerry ran a pretty poor campaign and that is he came across as just the the ad that just absolutely
00:09:22
devastated him was a a video footage of him wind surfing in Net Harbor and it just
00:09:29
said he was against the Iraq war before he was for it before he was against it and it ended with this devastating line
00:09:36
in a picture of him on his his kiteboard saying uh you know John
00:09:41
Kerry where whichever way the winds the wind blows. Uh oh yeah. And so people like for example George W.
00:09:47
Bush incredibly unpopular war in Iraq probably first Bell Hall of Fame geopolitical catastrophic mistake.
00:09:55
But because he never wavered. People respect that. And so from a brand
00:10:00
standpoint people would rather you be just [ __ ] crazy and stay that way or
00:10:05
crazy crazy liberal cuz those are the people who have been drawn to you. And but whereas I think Liz Cheney and
00:10:11
George Conway stayed true to quite frankly GOP traditional principles, I don't think they really flip-flopped. I
00:10:17
think they're very traditional. They did unnatural things for Trump and then stopped, right? And went back to
00:10:23
their normal shape essentially. Yeah. But they they did kind of my opinion on Cheney and
00:10:29
Well, they were pretty for a while. They're the old GOPers that basically MAGA has cast from the cast out from the
00:10:36
party. Absolutely. Yeah. But she was at the heart of it. She was at the heart of it. But her brand, it'll be very interesting
00:10:42
to see what happens. And what what'll be super interesting is if if she's reelected, he's basically aimed her guns
00:10:48
at her. Whenever he's aimed his guns at anyone, it has been a direct hit. It has been shocking how the the
00:10:54
Well, no, Thomas Massie won despite a direct he tried to get Thomas Massie out the last time.
00:11:00
Yeah, but my sense is I think MTG would be an entirely different ballgame cuz I
00:11:06
do. Do you know how much her district went for Trump? There's been there's just been some a lot except that the head of the Republican party in the district is
00:11:12
backing her, not Trump. Yeah, that will be if I feel like that's interesting.
00:11:18
I feel like she's your finger being pulled out of a dyke. Yeah, so to speak.
00:11:23
She's going to become a lesbian in San Francisco soon, but go ahead. She could fit. Yeah. Yeah. I'm not going to comment on
00:11:29
that. So, but she uh by the way, Debbie Brewbreaker, my girlfriend,
00:11:35
lesbian, uh as you said, or as she said, first thing she said was bats for the other team, so to speak.
00:11:42
Um that's happening a lot to me, Cara. I know that. Anyway, uh but you know what I'm going to do for you?
00:11:47
I'm going to go straight anyway. Sorry. Uh so, at this point, I think that that ship has sailed, Cara.
00:11:53
I think it has. I think that ship has sailed. No, but MTG, I think she's actually a seminal figure in the political landscape
00:12:00
because if she gets reelected and shows that she can basically stick up the middle finger to President Trump and
00:12:06
he's now two years into his lame duck presidency and you said something on the tour that really sort of struck me was that you think you don't think he's
00:12:12
going to finish out his presidency. I don't I really don't know actually. I really don't of this past week this
00:12:19
shift on the Epstein files whether they scrub them or not. He's in a weak position and I think they sense it. And
00:12:26
by the way, I think there are videos. I think I think there are photos and I think they're not good. And that's
00:12:31
what's missing here is he's scared of something. It's something he's scared. You know, they they made fun of it actually. They were repeating
00:12:37
a lot of stuff you said is, you know, if if I was innocent, wouldn't I release things? And and the it was the opener
00:12:43
for SNL. Um and it was really quite like saying what you were saying is he looks
00:12:49
so guilty the way he's behaving. Amelia Heheart. I'm like, I'm happy he released that, although we still don't know where
00:12:54
she went. But, um, you know, we're going to have to live with that unfortunate accident. Um, but, uh, he's he's going
00:13:01
to try to do distraction after distraction, but at some point you do run out of steam of these distractions.
00:13:07
I feel like you can't unless you like he attacks a country that's another Venezuela. Um, but I think he's in a
00:13:13
deeply weak position and I think Green is just an example of that. Um, it'll be interesting if she keeps this up cuz she
00:13:20
can't quite let go of him cuz that's a bridge too far. But she's like him of
00:13:25
another time, not this one, not this Trump. And I think that's what's powerful because everyone I talk to in
00:13:31
the Trump universe who is supportive of him that is shifting is like, I liked him, but not this stuff. Not the white,
00:13:38
not the east wing, not the way they're doing ICE, not all these kind of rid
00:13:43
like not but not this the guy essentially. So they like the idea of Trump, not the what's happened to him,
00:13:50
which is clearly a decline in cognitive and and I don't corruption.
00:13:55
I don't think it's I don't think it's I don't see the cognitive decline. Occasionally he does look like an old man falling asleep, but I don't see the
00:14:01
quote unquote cognitive decline. And I think he actually presents as still remarkably robust. But well, I I was in my mom's my mom's in a
00:14:08
senior facility and there's a guy there. There's always a guy there that's really robust and really losing it, but also
00:14:14
very energetically loud and um but is dement has dementia. Like I'm just
00:14:20
telling you, you can be very I had a friend whose mother had dementia and her grandmother grandmother had dementia and
00:14:26
she used to get up from the beach and start swimming and kept going. She was in great shape. She was very lively and
00:14:32
they had to go get her cuz she was so fit and so like full of beans but dement
00:14:37
had dementia. So I don't we'll see. I don't know. I think he has impersonate Marjorie Taylor Green and if my room
00:14:44
service is late I'm going to blame the deep state. Okay. Good. Okay. All right. Speaking of what Congress is up to, House
00:14:49
Republicans are reportedly circulating a bill model on Trump's idea to lower health care costs redirecting insurance
00:14:55
subsidies directly to people's HSA accounts. They would be for Obamacare enrolles. Mark Cuban called this really
00:15:01
dumb, noting that when you send money to people's HSAs, there's no guarantee the money will be spent on health care costs. When they're used by insurance
00:15:08
companies, they have to spend 85% on those costs. Um, everyone thinks this is
00:15:14
like ridiculous. And again, another bad move by Trump, I think, and he seems to
00:15:19
be missing. He's usually politically so savvy and this is just a dumb idea. So
00:15:24
yeah, look, I think it's time the if you were if you were just to look at our deficit, it's $2 trillion a year. If you
00:15:31
look at what we spend on healthcare, 13,000 per capita per year versus 6,500 for the other six members of the G7 you
00:15:37
used if we were able to actually leverage our scale and our innovation to provide health care at the same price as every
00:15:43
other nation. That's literally the the annual deficit. That would be a $2 trillion savings. You can't
00:15:50
we're going to have a very difficult time ever getting serious about a deficit as long as we continue the regulatory capture. And I don't think
00:15:57
there's of healthcare. I don't think there's a I I literally don't think there's a way to fix or enhance or
00:16:02
your idea. Repeat your idea. You repeated on stage several times. What explain your Medicare? Well, if you look at healthcare in the
00:16:09
United States, four out of five people are dissatisfied with it and they spend $13,000 a year on it. And that's just
00:16:15
there's no product in the world that is this expensive that has an 80% disapproval rate. And then you combine
00:16:21
that with regulatory capture where we've monetized health. Healthcare isn't about health. It's about shareholder value
00:16:27
unfortunately. And we've ended up with the most capitalist health care system in the sense that if you're in the top
00:16:32
10% in the United States, it's the best healthcare in the world. The person who a person in the top 1% lives 12 years
00:16:39
longer than the person in the bottom 1%. We've monetized it. It's actually for you and me, it's the best best health
00:16:44
care system in the world. For everyone else, not so frustrating. It's still frustrating. So, I think this has to be like really
00:16:50
ripped a band-aid off. And I'd agree. What I think at the same time, Medicare,
00:16:55
which is what uh seniors are eligible for, actually delivers pretty efficiently and people are generally
00:17:01
pretty happy with it. So, my idea is to lower health uh Medicare eligibility by
00:17:06
two years a year. Uh and then in 10 years, where are you? you're at 45 on up
00:17:13
is eligible for Medicare and that's 70 plus percent of health care costs
00:17:18
because they happen later in your life and I think you just keep going until effectively you have socialized or
00:17:24
national um nationalized medical coverage it's time it's just not and everyone under could have a very
00:17:29
inexpensive under 40 they don't even need health insurance I know they don't but just to if
00:17:35
something happens right they need there's always yeah I'm trying to figure out I'm trying to figure out an elegant way It gives
00:17:40
the private sector time to respond because there are millions of jobs that are dependent upon this regulatory
00:17:46
capture. Yeah. And you want to give them time to adjust. But quite frankly, we have to move to an entirely different system. We
00:17:51
have to move absolutely in the UK. You know, the NHS, granted, people have their issues with it, but
00:17:57
generally you get good health care for free and it's the responsibility.
00:18:02
They're they're they're perplexed by our health. They're like, "Why are you absolutely can't get They can't get over a nation that's the most prosperous
00:18:08
nation in the world where when your wife is diagnosed with lung cancer, it also means you're going bankrupt. 40% American households
00:18:14
have medical or dental debt. This is it's a huge, you know, happiness, we're talking a lot about it.
00:18:20
The six of the 10 happiest nations in the world are in Northern Europe. And I think a big component of that healthare
00:18:25
is people think of happiness is is having stuff or the ability to have stuff which America defines. But
00:18:32
actually a bigger component of happiness is absence from fear that things are going to be taken from you. And in the
00:18:37
US there's a real fear that your dignity will be taken from you and the health of your loved ones because it's it's so
00:18:43
[ __ ] expensive and people can't afford it. healthcare and homes. That's 100% and I H&H
00:18:50
I don't I think crime I think crime and immigration are big in terms of perception, but in terms of the actual
00:18:56
as it relates to mental illness, cortisol, stress, health issues. Well, I'm shocked that some of our
00:19:02
friends on the left aren't more aggressive about this. Hillary, Secretary Clinton was right. It just the
00:19:08
world wasn't ready for it in '92 or whenever it was. The the nation is ready for it. The
00:19:13
nation has had it. And then the system in the UK, the top I forget if it's five or 10% go
00:19:20
private. And people say, "Well, that's that's the aristocracy." And I'm like, "No, it's not. Rich people are always going to
00:19:26
have better service and better access." Get used to it, folks. Their kids are going to have an easier time getting into college. They're going to have
00:19:31
better story about them. Did you see that journal story? There was a journal story about rich really the ultra rich
00:19:37
um never see people like they go from one. It's a I'll send it to you. Well, that that's part of the problem and that
00:19:43
is the top the most powerful people by far in the top 1% and they're no longer
00:19:48
invested in the basics of American life. They have their own schools. They have their own police force and security now.
00:19:54
They have their own healthcare. They have their own transportation. They have their own planes. Right. So when America infrastructure is
00:20:00
crumbling and when the average American has a difficult time getting good education or feels unsafe,
00:20:06
these people don't feel don't don't emp have no empathy because they're they're they've totally extricated themselves
00:20:12
from the American experience. Yeah, this story I'd recommend it in the Wall Street Journal. We have to move on. But one of the things that when Luigi
00:20:18
Manion happened, I was like, okay, here we are. This is more and this is going to happen over time. People are furious
00:20:24
about this thing and they don't need to be, right? It's so fixable for our country and it saves money. Anyway,
00:20:30
just before we move on, two things. I actually believe if people had any idea how the 1% live really live in terms of
00:20:37
access, I think there'd be a revolution right now. I think the difference between Well, it was described rather detailed
00:20:43
in the Wall Street Journal. The difference between a middle- class person and an upper income person when I was growing up was they got to fly business class and they had
00:20:49
they had a Cadillac, not a Grand Torino, but you lived largely the same life. Now it's a different [ __ ] universe. It is
00:20:55
just a different universe. And also just going back to the UK health care care system, the people who go private because they have the money for it.
00:21:02
It actually kind of works because they basically take pressure off the system because they're not they're not in the
00:21:07
system. So I I think look, it's time for nationalized healthcare. It's time for socialized healthcare in the United
00:21:13
States. It's just not working for us. Oh, you socialist. Anyway, let's go on a quick break. When we come back, Peter
00:21:18
Teal dumps his stake in Nvidia. I'm very eager to hear what you say about this. Support for this show comes from Upway.
00:21:26
If you're tired of being stuck in traffic or watching gas prices climb higher and higher, you're not alone. There's a better, freer way to move
00:21:32
through your day. And it might just change how you feel about commuting. An ebank from Upway can give you that
00:21:37
feeling of freedom. Fresh air, no traffic, no stress. It's not just good for your health, it's better for your
00:21:43
wallet, your time, and honestly, your happiness. Upway makes it easy. They offer top brands like Specialized
00:21:49
Cannondale and Aventon at up to 60% off retail. Every ebike is thoroughly inspected by a professional mechanic and
00:21:56
comes with a one-year warranty so you can ride with peace of mind. You can search by brand or style, book a call
00:22:02
with a real human for help, or even stop by their showrooms in New York or LA. So go to upwway.co and use code pivot 150
00:22:10
to get $150 off your first ebike purchase of $1,000 or more. That's upwway.co. co code pivot 150. Go ahead,
00:22:19
you won't regret it. Support for this show comes from Mint
00:22:25
Mobile. Most holiday gifts, unfortunately, end up in the drawer in the back of your closet. Or maybe
00:22:30
they're quote accidentally left at a cousin's house. Thankfully, this holiday season, you can make sure every holiday
00:22:37
gift is something for everyone to enjoy. That's right, Mint Mobile is offering unlimited premium wireless for $15 a
00:22:43
month. That's their best deal of year. also known as the only holiday gift you'll actually use every single day and
00:22:50
one that you literally can't leave at a cousin's house. With Mint Mobile, you can get three, six, or 12 month
00:22:55
unlimited plan for $15 a month. All Mint plans come with high-speed data, unlimited talk and text on the nation's
00:23:01
largest 5G network. You can also bring your current phone and number over to Mint with no contracts required. So,
00:23:07
don't get them socks, get them premium wireless for $15 a month. Shop Mint unlimited plans at mintmobile.com/pivot.
00:23:14
That's mintmobile.com/pivot. Limited time offer. Upfront payments of
00:23:20
$45 for 3 months, $90 for 6 months, and $180 for 12 months. Plan required $15 a
00:23:27
month equivalent. Taxes and fees extra. Initial plan term only. Greater than 35
00:23:32
GB may slow when the network is busy. Capable device required. Availability, speed, and coverage varies. See
00:23:39
mintmobile.com. Scott, we're back. Peter Teal's fund has
00:23:45
sold off this entire stake in Nvidia, elevating AI bubble fears. At the time of this taping early Monday morning, it
00:23:51
looks like the markets are in for a muted open after a rocky week of tech stock sell-offs quite a lot while we
00:23:57
were away. The NASDAQ Composite ended last week down a half a percentage point led by dips in Alphabet, Amazon, and
00:24:03
Meta, even though Warren Buffett bought into uh Alphabet, which he never buys into tech. Any uh talk about this this
00:24:10
move and and let me just add this. Speaking of AI bubble fears, some recent reports are shedding more light on
00:24:15
OpenAI's finances. This was jaw-dropping, I thought. Documents obtained by the Wall Street Journal show
00:24:20
the company is burning through cash. I mean, it is a forest fire. Operating losses are projected to reach about 3/4
00:24:26
of annual revenues by 2028, mostly due to computing costs, of course, though the company expects to turn a profit by
00:24:33
2030. They say they are. OpenAI spent about 12 and they could this happened with other internet companies. OpenAI
00:24:39
spent about $12 billion on inference, essentially computing costs, between 2024 and the third quarter of 2025,
00:24:46
according to documents reviewed by tech blogger Ed Zitron. Uh the documents also show Microsoft's revenue share payments
00:24:52
from OpenAI roughly doubling since last year. OpenAI said these aren't accurate, I guess. Um but they are having this,
00:25:00
we'll see when they have their IPO. Uh Sam Alman recently said Open AI's revenue is more than $13 billion a year,
00:25:06
but these latest numbers don't seem to support that. Um any any thoughts on
00:25:11
this stuff? I'm really interested in your take on on the the the teal stuff
00:25:16
combined with um and of course uh uh was his name uh from Masan sold off one
00:25:24
Nvidia in order to get into open AI. But go ahead. Well, I think you'd I think most people most market analysts would
00:25:30
go, listen, this is just some some profit taking. Nvidia is up 38%. Even Nvidia was down 8% last week, but it's
00:25:37
up 38% for the year. Microsoft down 1.3, up 22. Meta's flat was down 4 and a.5%.
00:25:44
It's only up 2% for the year. Amazon is up 7%, but it gave back 8% last last
00:25:50
week. Alphabet was down 3%, but it's up 45%. And Apple, nice call. Apple's up.
00:25:57
Apple's 1 point up 1.2% last week and up 12% for the year. And the companies that
00:26:03
so Apple and Amazon are supposed to be most immune from the AI trade. They haven't gone all in. Uh I I personally,
00:26:09
and again, this isn't financial advice, but I'm increasingly convinced that the string that gets pulled on that takes
00:26:15
down the global economy to recession levels and it'll be no there'll be nowhere to hide is the following. I
00:26:22
think the quoteunquote trillion dollar plus commitments or framework that uh Sam Alman has made to try and convince
00:26:28
everybody I know more than you and this is so [ __ ] huge I need 60 nuclear power plants and 300 billion and compute
00:26:34
from Oracle. I think a lot of that is marketing and great if the revenue is doubled at open AAI it means it stock is
00:26:41
80% overvalue because built into that valuation of 40 times revenue is that
00:26:47
this thing is quadrupling every 12 months and will quadruple every 12 months for 4 years and it's not and the
00:26:55
moment they announce I again I think this trade unwinds the following way I think a traditional company a PepsiCo a
00:27:02
Caterpillar on an earnings call says Look, we are excited about AI. We do think it's it's it's going to be a
00:27:07
breakthrough, but we are scaling back our investment. And then a bunch of other traditional S&P 500 companies look
00:27:14
at each other and make the same announcement. Open AI has to, you know, it becomes clear there's no [ __ ] way
00:27:20
OpenAI is going to continue to be able to buy $300 billion, hundred billion in Nvidia chips. And the thing that takes
00:27:26
the market down, quite frankly, is Nvidia. Because with a $5 trillion market cap, if this thing gets cut in
00:27:32
half and there's a $2.5 trillion destruction in the market, which will impact the top 10% of households who are now responsible for 50% of consumer
00:27:39
spending, that's how the economy like literally starts to throw up and convulse.
00:27:44
And I think we're getting there. The narrative has gone from AI boom to AI bubble. Now everyone, have you people
00:27:51
don't realize because it happens incremental and you said something always struck me that humans adapt. People don't realize how much the
00:27:57
narrative has changed around AI in the financial press just in the last 15
00:28:02
days. Bubble story. I've read so many bubble stories. It's crazy. And of course, as
00:28:08
you say, sometimes when that's the case, it doesn't happen, right? Over it overindexes on that. I would say the
00:28:15
teal thing. I don't think it's just profit taking. Although he's this guy is has a like a a tuning fork for money, right?
00:28:22
he whether he figures out some weird tax plan that he never pays taxes again or some weird
00:28:27
gap gains thing that he does. He's always up to some like amazingly ridiculous and greedy
00:28:33
thing to do. But, you know, that's him. He's a capitalist. He's going to take advantage of every, you know, nook and cranny of problems. Um, but it was
00:28:41
interesting that it it just um they they see things before people because they're
00:28:46
in the middle of it and they can actually see the numbers. and anyone that can see the numbers, you have to pay attention to their moves and it's
00:28:52
not just a profit taking, right? It's not just that. Um I think I think
00:28:57
probably it's not like you sort of feel like remember Amazon was all like going
00:29:03
to be on Amazon.combomb that kind of stuff that there was that narrative that went on and then it wasn't. But this is
00:29:09
so much bigger. Like it's so big and it affects everything. And it was and they're already established industries
00:29:15
and already established companies. These other companies when they coughed, nobody cared. In this case, when they
00:29:21
cough, everyone dies essentially. Um what's here's an interesting thing. Jeff Bezos is taking a larger role in the AI
00:29:28
game. He's created a startup called Project Prometheus. Oh, it's so Oh, it's such a macho, isn't it?
00:29:34
I know, right? Um, by the way, Prometheus did not have the greatest tale, Jeff, just so you know. Uh, for
00:29:40
people who don't know, Prometheus gave humans fire. Um, and he defied the gods for doing this. But as punishment for
00:29:47
his actions, Zeus uh condemned Prometheus to internal torment,
00:29:52
including uh, an eagle ate his liver daily. So, good luck, Jeff. Um, and
00:29:58
he'll be the co-CEO. The company is focusing on AI with real world applications and aerospace cars in other
00:30:05
fields makes sense. Project Prometheus has already raised $6.2 billion in funding. Um I'm not sure what it's
00:30:12
probably making apps, right? I would assume like how you how you would deploy it anywhere like what what's the use of
00:30:18
AI? And I think people right now are mostly using it for search, you know, sort of a a more robust search or a more
00:30:24
robust analytical thing. And so the question is what how do you make it
00:30:30
really seamlessly useful throughout which is what you're talking about? What's the actual ROI on these things?
00:30:37
So I don't know I don't know if you think of anything about yeah the new the thing that kind of ident marks the age a little bit is
00:30:42
weapons of mass distraction and that is right I think the country is being run by I think we're bombing fishing boats which
00:30:50
a no fentanyl comes out of Venezuela. They don't have any fentanyl production. Fishing boats, that's for sure. And then and then if these fishing boats
00:30:56
were the distribution system or the transportation system for the drug trade, which by the way is not the way you go after the drug trade, the
00:31:03
transportation system, they would have if they were in fact fairing drugs or fentanyl, of which there's none in
00:31:09
Venezuela to Miami. These boats would need to make 20 stops to refuel, which
00:31:15
is sort of logistically improbable, if not impossible. I believe we're bombing fishing boats
00:31:20
because of a dead pedophile. I I think they every day as soon as Epstein creeps
00:31:26
back into the news, they try and come up with something, you know, whether it's this health account nonsense or an additional 100%
00:31:32
tariff on Lithuania to try and distract them. And then the other person that does this,
00:31:37
I mean, the most powerful person in the world and the wealthiest man in the world are literally deploying all of their energy and firepower on
00:31:43
distraction right now. And Musk is like, "Look at anything but the fact I have a
00:31:48
car company trading at, you know, a revenue multiple that's never made sense for a car." Oh, look
00:31:54
over here. It's robots. Look over here. It's autonomous. Look over here. I would agree. It's AI. like jazz hands on [ __ ] mess
00:32:03
because it's not if he just starts talking about Tesla as a car company and the metrics
00:32:09
and what the plan is for this company to wrap steel around a motor, people are going to wake up and go, "Oh, it's a car
00:32:15
company." And take the stock down 80%. It's also Can I Can I add something? It's more than that. It's also the idea
00:32:22
that they can't shut up. I was just thinking this last night. I'm going on that uh the show Jennifer, you know,
00:32:28
those two ladies. I' I've had it ladies and I had to think of I've had it. I have had it with them talking like it's
00:32:35
one of when Bill Aman was giving dating advice. I you know I was thinking like I would call him a cheap ass discount
00:32:40
version of Scott Galloway. It was first of all stupid advice for men, young men. He's sort of moving into your space. I'd
00:32:47
give him a smackaroo Scott, but he's sort of copying. Yes. He put out this whole thing about
00:32:53
can I meet you? You go up to a girl at a bar and you say, "Can I meet you?" "Can I meet?" You just did you. Can I
00:33:00
meet you? Can I meet you? That's his piece of He like started giving dating advice.
00:33:06
I'm like, "Can you just go back to hedge funds and stop coning on everything?" I bet he saw like the Galloways number
00:33:12
one. I need to get in on this thing and it gives me a softer side of Sears kind of look. But yeah, he had and it's
00:33:18
completely So, just to be clear, I don't But that's what I mean. Bezos can't shut up. I know. But I
00:33:24
I try and base my dating advice on research. So, just real briefly, gentlemen. Women are attracted to men
00:33:30
sexually for three reasons. The first is signaling resources. So, the bad news is, you know, that's a range of
00:33:36
Billman. Yeah. But you can also signal resources by having a plan and having your act together and demonstrating discipline.
00:33:42
It's like signaling not only current but future resources. Second is intellect. What's the fastest way to communicate
00:33:48
intellect, Cara? I don't know. Make a joke. Be funny. That's right. So, I've told
00:33:53
you my impersonation of a woman. I'm laughing. I'm laughing. I'm naked. And then, and then if you can if you can
00:33:59
make a woman laugh, I should not laugh at that, but it was fun. If you can make a woman laugh, she'll have coffee with her. And then the third
00:34:05
thing, and this is the most underleveraged weapon in dating and the advice I have for young men is kindness.
00:34:11
And it's true. Women instinctively believe at some point they'll be vulnerable because of gestation. And they want someone who is a kind man.
00:34:19
This all makes sense. Can I meet you? Does not Yeah. So, I I don't give guys opening lines. I I I would start with, "Hey,
00:34:26
where are you from?" And and then you read body language or what's that old line? Uh that's a nice
00:34:32
shirt. It'll look great on my floor in the morning. Well, I my my big line is you give them
00:34:37
you give them the phone and ask them to take pictures a picture of you. And everyone always says yes and no problem.
00:34:43
And they're nice. And then you say, "Now, can you turn it around on Periscope mode and take a picture of the two of us?" And she'll
00:34:48
go, "Why?" And you say, "Cuz I want to show it to our kids." Oh my god, that's so creepy. That would
00:34:55
send me way way like how can I get out of this place with my uh head intact?
00:35:01
No, no one needs to take dating advice from a guy who lost his virginity at 19. No, that's true.
00:35:06
No, but there's there's basics. I did not know Bill was get is Bill getting into the young men game? I'm going to have to call Richard.
00:35:13
Get out of I was immediately angry, but it was also stupid. So, I thought, okay,
00:35:19
I'm angry and yet it's stupid. He's like totally getting into the Scott game. He'll probably call you for lunch like
00:35:24
they all do. Like, let's have lunch and chat. Let's talk about hedge funds. Bill, you're a hedge fund person. That's
00:35:30
the only thing we want to talk to you about otherwise. I don't mind Bill that much. I think it's like I think he's become a clown. I think
00:35:36
he's a very talented investor, very risktaking, but he needs to stop talking about everything else publicly. He can
00:35:42
talk about it privately, but he has an interest in whatever. He reminds me there's a great show um on
00:35:48
only we can talk about things we're not supposed to talk then we have no domain expert I do a lot of reporting. No I I
00:35:54
don't talk about hedge fund investing. I don't know anything about I ask you. We just talked about the market. Yes. But you talked about it. I didn't
00:36:00
cuz I don't know anything about it because you know something about it because you've been investing since 13
00:36:05
with sigh apparently. So um but there's a there's a show called the beast in me and then we're going to move on. Um, and
00:36:12
it's with um, Matthew Rice and Claire Danes, and it's about this billionaire who lives next door to this Purprise
00:36:18
winning lesbian writer. It's kind of echoes. Um, and he's such an irritating
00:36:23
person. And literally, they have a lunch that I have had with a dozen different tech people, rich people, and it was so
00:36:30
like he's so irritating in this show. He also might be a killer. Um, but it's uh,
00:36:36
anyway, just he's so irritating. So, stop getting into Scott. I was defending you, Scott. Get out of
00:36:41
I love how you're like you're like a dog and you're like protecting my purse. Well, it's like cheap discount Scott
00:36:48
Galloway. I don't want cheap ass. I want the real [ __ ] deal. Want the premium. You want that new leather smell. You want that new
00:36:55
No, I do not want Bill Aman to give dating advice. I'd like him to speak. I'd love hedge fund advice from Bill.
00:37:01
So weird right now. I bought I bought axe spray in the airport cuz I didn't have deodorant. I smell like a 19-year-old boy. No, 19. Try 12.
00:37:09
Yeah. My sons were done with it at 13. Anyway, the worst. I just had a memory
00:37:15
of really bad smelling young men. Oh my god. Just to put a finer point on the actual substance of the conversation. So, at
00:37:20
the peak of the dot bubble, um, all of big tech accounted for about 34% of the S&P. There's just 10
00:37:27
companies now that account for 40% and the 10 biggest companies in tech back then were 27%. So these companies are
00:37:35
50% more expensive as a percentage or they account for 50% more as a percentage of the total S&P. So we are
00:37:40
now in this was look out below territory. If you look at what happened to these companies in 2000
00:37:47
and you look at their peak from which they fell these companies are now 50% uh
00:37:53
have 50% more market cap as a percentage of the total market. And then the Buffett test where you take essentially
00:37:58
the market cap of the S&P as a percentage um of GDP. He likes it. He I guess
00:38:05
normally it trades around 80 or 90%. It's trading at 220% right now. Yeah. Yeah. Well, Buffett is mostly in
00:38:12
cash except he bought some Oh, he's you know he's assembled a war chest of $310 billion in cash.
00:38:19
He did buy he did buy Google. Yeah, he bought Alphabet. That was interesting. uh and and Apple
00:38:25
and Amazon are probably the least vulnerable because they have not gone all in on AI like everybody else. But
00:38:30
the narrative has changed really dramatically, which isn't to say which isn't to say that the market my friend
00:38:36
Barry Rholz reminded me that 97 when everyone said said the market was overvalued, it dramatically doubled from
00:38:42
that point. But this feels really really wobbly. It's going to go fast. That's my
00:38:48
feeling. Um all right, Scott, let's go on a quick break. And when we come back, bonds are thriving.
00:38:53
Support for the show comes from ODO. Running a business is hard enough, and you don't need to make it harder with a dozen different apps that don't talk to
00:39:00
each other. One for sales, another for inventory, a separate one for accounting. Before you know it, you find yourself drowning in software and
00:39:06
processes instead of focusing on what matters, growing your business. This is where ODO comes in. It's the only
00:39:11
business software you'll ever need. ODO is an all-in-one, fully integrated platform that handles everything. That
00:39:16
means CRM, accounting, inventory, e-commerce, HR, and more. No more app overload. No more juggling login, just
00:39:23
one seamless system that makes work easier. And the best part is that ODU replaces multiple expensive platforms
00:39:29
for a fraction of the cost. It's built to grow with your business. Whether you're just starting out or you're already scaling it up. Plus, it's easy
00:39:36
to use, customizable, and designed to streamline every process. It's time to put the clutter aside and focus on what
00:39:42
really matters, running your business. Thousands of businesses have made the switch, so why not you? Try ODO for free
00:39:47
at odo.com. That's odo.com. Support
00:39:57
for the show comes from AG1. Look, we all know we aren't getting any younger, which means we've got to make the most
00:40:03
of what we have today. And to get that energy, it's time you try AG1. AG1
00:40:08
NextGen is a daily health drink clinically shown to support gut health and fill in common nutrient gaps. With
00:40:14
five probiotic strains and 75 plus vitamins and minerals, AG1 NextGen replaces the need for a multivitamin,
00:40:20
probiotic, and more. One scoop in the morning with 8 to 12 ounces of cold water adds up to whole body health
00:40:25
support from 75 plus vitamins, minerals, probiotics, and whole food sourced ingredients. I've used AG1 and I really
00:40:33
like it. I'm a supporter. Head to drink.com/pivot to claim your free welcome kit. You'll
00:40:38
get a bottle of vitamin D3/K2, a shaker bottle, and a sample pack of all three new AG1 flavors, tropical citrus, and
00:40:45
berry to find your favorite. That's drinkagg.com/pivot to try AG1. Today, we're back with more
00:40:52
news. So, bonds are having a moment. What's usually seen as a steady, predictable investment uh is having its
00:40:58
best year since 2020. So far, the Bloomberg US Aggriate Bond Index has returned around 6.7% in 2025. And you
00:41:06
know who's noticed? President Trump, he's bought at least $82 million in corporate and municipal bonds since the end of the summer. According to ethics
00:41:13
forms, we're talking about over 175 separate purchases here. And here's the interesting part. A bunch of these
00:41:20
investments are in sectors that are so happen to benefit from his own policies. What a surprise. And by the way, I
00:41:25
recommend watching Scott Pelly's piece on 60 Minutes about the Binance CEO pardon. It's not new reporting by any
00:41:32
stretch of the imagination, but he brings it together nicely. Anyway, um is there a smart move for non-presidents?
00:41:37
Explain this for the people. Again, I shall not comment cuz I don't know. But can I meet you, but go ahead, sir.
00:41:45
Uh look, it's just it's been a bit of a flight to safety. Interest rates aren't they're historically not that high, but
00:41:51
in terms of recent history, they feel fairly rich. And I think what's going on here is pretty basic. And that is a lot
00:41:57
of investors feel the way I do, and that is we have no idea where to invest or find value. It feels
00:42:04
like with gold up 55% it's like where do you go like where all the stock stocks overvalued even foreign markets are
00:42:10
getting not frothy but what feels like fully valued and also there's feels like there's a lot of risk in the system so
00:42:16
if if your return on bonds is fairly decent and bonds are in the top of the
00:42:22
cap structure meaning that as long Nvidia could could get cut by 90% but it
00:42:27
would likely still be able to pay off its debt or its bonds and so People
00:42:33
generally think of bonds as being a safer instrument and they're getting they're getting actually paid for the
00:42:38
risk most people would argue right now because of the runup in interest rates and inflation. So kind of a safe haven
00:42:45
is like people look at the market and go I don't know where when the Dow is trading at a P of 25 and the Russell
00:42:51
2000 at 34 with the median historical at 19 and 15 respectively like okay stocks
00:42:58
are just too goddamn expensive. So there's been of a just a bit of a flight into the bond market which has rallied
00:43:04
the bond market. It's I think it's I don't think it's the bonds are such a great deal. I think it's a flight I
00:43:10
think it's a quote unquote riskoff strategy and there's more more money just flowed out of stocks into uh the
00:43:16
bond market. I think it's a pretty basic kind of fear index like people What do you think about Trump moving
00:43:21
into them? You know corruption or just I don't know what's going on there. I
00:43:26
think what's going to happen I think the biggest thing that's going to happen in the debt markets is that essentially America's a giant bet on AI
00:43:34
in terms of right as you've noted yeah everything is about AI now if these companies get cut I don't see any way
00:43:41
that the global economy doesn't go into a recession because now the S&P dominates global market cap and
00:43:49
uh these 10 companies are 40% of the S&P so 20% of global market cap is in 10
00:43:54
companies But if you think about I I mean if this thing comes undone,
00:44:01
it's just it's just so I don't I mean it's just quite frankly it's just kind of scary. I'm I'm sitting
00:44:08
here thinking, "Wow, how do I put your money in? Gold up your ass. What are you doing?
00:44:13
Where do I you know where do gold up your ass?" Okay. Where do I put my money? It's it's it's
00:44:18
cash. That's that's And then of course you don't want to miss it. Yeah. It's very it's a very fraught time I think. Anyway,
00:44:24
uh one more You asked about Trump. I'm sorry I'm all over the place here. Go ahead. The the biggest thing that's going to happen in the bond market or
00:44:30
it's going to be a weird thing. Not only is America a giant bet on AI, Trump's presidency is a giant bet on AI
00:44:36
because I just don't think he Very good point. If if the market wasn't up 14, if the market was down 14%, not up 14%. I don't
00:44:44
think we'd have National Guard and cities National Guard. I just think he'd be out though. The S&P and the Dow continue to be the
00:44:51
most damaging metrics ever invested because they give the illusion of prosperity and that everything's all right. It is not.
00:44:57
And they also credit or or blame the president unfairly for the market's
00:45:02
machinations. If this if the AI trade on unwinds, it's going to be terrible for
00:45:09
Trump. So, I think what he's going to do, I think he's going to backs stop the these enormous purchases. And what I
00:45:15
mean by that is if OpenAI says we need $500 billion to buy all these or commit
00:45:20
to all these chips, I think they're going to ask the government to backs stop the debt and which is which is by
00:45:27
the way socialism. But I think he's going to do that. But I wonder what's going to happen to the credit markets when all
00:45:32
kidding. That's going to drive MAGA crazy. He is going to lose so much election wise if that happens. Well, the
00:45:40
reason the reason why Treasury bills and are so pay a lower interest rate than than corporate bonds is corporations are
00:45:47
supposed to take greater risks and also they're not as creditworthy as the US government. And when you start melding
00:45:53
the cor the private bond market and the US Treasury market, you're basically saying, okay, these are no longer these
00:45:59
take on the risk profile of corporate bonds then which could raise interest costs. Interest costs are already our
00:46:05
biggest uh have become our I think our biggest expense. uh behind social security. They're a trillion dollars
00:46:11
now. And that's a and that's even despite the fact that they trade, you
00:46:17
know, most people would argue like a very safe instrument. He'll he would basically raise our I believe he would
00:46:22
raise our interest rate cost by 100 or 200 billion a year trying to backs stop the trade that if
00:46:28
it unwinds, not only the economy, I think that will be talk Margie will be mad about that one. And
00:46:34
oh, you're right. MAG will lose their [ __ ] over that. Lose their [ __ ] over that. Anyway, Scott, one more quick break. We'll be
00:46:39
back for wins and fails. Support for this show comes from MS Now.
00:46:45
We the people in order to form a more perfect union. These words are more than just the opening of the Constitution.
00:46:52
They're a reminder of who this country belongs to and what we can be at our best. They're also the cornerstone of MS
00:46:59
Now. Whether it's breaking news, exclusive reporting, election coverage, or in-depth analysis, MS Now keeps the
00:47:05
people at the heart of everything they do. Home to the Rachel Matto Show, Morning Joe, The Briefing with Jen Saki,
00:47:12
and more voices you know and trust. MS Now is your source for news, opinion, and the world. Their name is new, but
00:47:19
you'll find the same commitment to justice, progress, and the truth you've relied on for decades. They'll continue
00:47:24
to cover the day news, ask tough questions, and explain how it impacts you. I really want these guys to win.
00:47:31
Same mission, new name, MS Now. Learn more at ms.now.
00:47:40
Okay, Scott, let's do wins and fails. I think I will go first. Go ahead. Um, one thing that really irritates me
00:47:45
now, I like Seth Myers. I don't think he's my friend, but I I talked to him and he's a really terrific guy. Um, uh,
00:47:52
the administration's war on late night continues. President Trump has called on NBC to fire Seth Meyers after the show
00:47:58
featured multiple roasts at his expense. Seth is very funny. President said Meyers was suffering from TDS or Trump
00:48:04
derangement syndrome and described his performances uncontrollable rage. It's ridiculous. In a normal world, that's
00:48:11
fine. He can complain about he's obsessed with late night. He's obviously up late or something's happening by himself in his room with his clicker.
00:48:18
Um, and in an it what really irritated me once again, [ __ ] FCC chair, uh,
00:48:25
Brandon Carr re-shared the post, Brandon, you suck up Toad. Do you
00:48:30
understand? The jig is friaking up for this guy at some point and you are going to go down hard.
00:48:36
Let me just say he is should not be sharing this post um about firing people
00:48:41
when he got into trouble before saying, you know, we're coming to get Jimmy Kimmel. Remember that? where you had to
00:48:47
take back. Um, I thought I I just he is such a dumb [ __ ] I don't know what else to say, but
00:48:53
Trump can yank it. He yammers on about whoever Marjorie Teller Green. I think he is putting her at risk, by the way.
00:49:00
Um, and by the way, call out to Dana Bash for pointing out Marjorie, you weren't concerned about this until it
00:49:06
was directed at you. And Green said that's a fair criticism and you're right. Um, but uh, but in this case,
00:49:12
Brendan Carr is continues to make the same stupid mistake because he's not very smart. My win SNL this week, Glenn
00:49:19
Powell was so spectacularly good on SNL. He was so good. He really fell into it
00:49:25
really beautifully. He He's I would I'm He's shockingly surprisingly funny. Um,
00:49:32
because he's so handsome and he took off his shirt, of course. Um, but there was an SNL AI photo sketch that it's not a
00:49:39
new idea that AI photos are demented. Sometimes can be demented or videos that you make. That's been a trope for, you
00:49:46
know, this AI slop thing and weird photos with six hands. It was so funny.
00:49:52
Like it was about a grandmother and their kids give them this AI photos that turn old photos into AI photos and they
00:49:58
come alive. It was so funny. I recommend everybody see it. It it just really
00:50:03
encapsulated like how [ __ ] ridiculous these AI photo enhancements are. And I
00:50:09
just think Glenn Powell, kudos. So my win is Tom Cruz received his first
00:50:14
Oscar. I was here in LA and I kept seeing all I kept seeing all these
00:50:20
stars at the hotel and I guess last night was the governor's award or something or Governor's awards. Yep.
00:50:25
And Tom Cruz was given an honorary Oscar for you know contribution to the to the medium. But just I've always thought
00:50:32
that Tom Cruz and Brad Pitt and I think the same is actually true of Channing Tatum. He's in this cool movie called
00:50:38
Roofman. But I think these guys are so good-looking that it actually diminishes
00:50:43
their the perception of just what fantastic actors they are. Is that what happens to you? That does happen to me. Me and me and
00:50:50
Bill Aman. Um uh but just just some of the movies, his body of work, obviously
00:50:56
The Mission Impossible and Top Gun franchises, but he people forget he was in Risky
00:51:02
Business when he was a you teenager, Edge of Tomorrow, Minority Report,
00:51:07
Rainman, The Color of Money, where Paul Newman finally got the uh an Oscar, Collateral,
00:51:14
A Few Good Men, Jerry Maguire, and my favorite You can't handle the truth. Sorry. And
00:51:20
my favorite film of his um Magnolia, I thought directed by Paul
00:51:25
Thomas Anderson. I thought he should have got the award for that. Tropic Thunder, Eyes Wide Shut. I mean,
00:51:32
this guy Taps The Last Samurai, which was actually a pretty good film. Even his bad films are pretty good. All the
00:51:39
Right Moves. Remember that? Far and Away. I'm a huge Tom Cruz fan. If despite the Scientologist, I think he's a creepy in
00:51:46
real life dude. I have to say I've enjoyed this. He's not creepy. He's a Scientologist, but he's he seems like I've heard he's a really nice man.
00:51:53
I I on sets he's very generous. He's got that Taylor Swift generousness. He's tough on people in a good way. I I would
00:52:00
agree. I You don't hear it's just the Scientology thing that's vanilla sky with the most beautiful woman in the world, Penelopey Cruz.
00:52:07
Anyways, congratulations. I think Tom Cruz is just an incredible talent. Nice. Nice. I like that. I'm going to
00:52:13
agree with you. And anyways, my, you know, my fail is the boring stuff and that is uh I I just think we are in a
00:52:21
crazy [ __ ] overinflated market right now. If you look at even the emerging
00:52:27
markets index is up 30%. Uh that's outpaced the S&P. That was the trade I recommended at the end end of last year
00:52:34
was foreign stocks and now that trade's kind of over. Bitcoin's at an all-time high 126,000. I mentioned gold is up
00:52:40
55%. And now I I mean you everything is just
00:52:46
so expensive and whenever we get to this level of froth it sometimes there's not
00:52:52
a crash. Sometimes it just plays out over a decade which is sometimes even worse. It just goes there's been entire
00:52:58
decades Cara where the market just goes flat like New York real estate typically
00:53:03
doesn't go down. It just goes sideway for 10 years. I was looking I was reviewing all my investments over the
00:53:09
last decade and actually my real estate my the place I own in Manhattan has
00:53:14
performed the least well and that can happen when a market is frothy. Sometimes it's not a big dramatic media
00:53:20
event. It just goes flat for 10 years. Y and the S&P forward PE typically
00:53:25
averages 17. It's now at 22. uh it's only traded above 22 times twice since
00:53:32
1985 during the whole wait for it.com bubble and the co9 pandemic and after
00:53:38
that the market fell off sharply each time anyways worried anyways my
00:53:44
I'm usually I mean granted you know Andrew Rossin and Josh Brown from
00:53:50
Midholtz Management have always reminded me and I need to do this and it's one of my many flaws as investor you have to constantly ask yourself what could go
00:53:57
right and Andrew says that it's the optimists who have vastly beaten the pessimists in the market over the medium
00:54:03
and the long term because of demographics and innovation. The market continues to kind of churn up. But this
00:54:09
feels the the the argument or the loss is I think it's unhealthy for an economy
00:54:14
to have this kind of concentration of power and value. It creates fragility and and the corruption layered on top of it.
00:54:20
Well, that doesn't help. But no, bad decisions. But just the um backstopping open AI, what a terrible
00:54:27
decision. Oh, that would be terrible. But Nasim Talib says he talks about fragility and anti-fragility and what
00:54:32
the definition of robust is. And a robust industry is one where any one or number of companies go out of business
00:54:37
and it wouldn't threaten the entire sector. So if McDonald's goes out of business, you're still going to be able to get your cheap fatty calories.
00:54:44
So the actually the the fast food industry is very robust. Our economy is
00:54:49
becoming very fragile because of the regulatory capture and also just the hysteria around this space. And we now
00:54:56
have 10 companies that are literally the string that if they get pulled on puts
00:55:02
the global economy into a recession. Yep. So it's boring. But my my fail is
00:55:07
got worried in LA. Well, a lack of a lack of antitrust. LA I sure like
00:55:13
anyways that's my win is Tom Cruz finally getting the recognition he deserves. And my fail is we have let our
00:55:19
economy um become way too concentrated across a small number. We have an anti-fragile or we have a fragile
00:55:26
economy right now based on this trade which is by the way folks it's now more crazy town than it was in 99.
00:55:34
Correct. All right. That's really bracing and sobering. Anyway, we want to hear from you. Send us your questions
00:55:40
about business tech or whatever is on your mind. Go to nymag.com/pivot to submit a question for the show or call
00:55:45
8551 pivot. Elsewhere in the Karen Scott universe, this week in On with Cara
00:55:50
Swisser, I spoke with filmmakers Ken Burns and Sarah Botstein about their American Revolution, their new six-part
00:55:57
docue series airing on PBS. I highly recommend it. Let's listen to a clip of Ken talking about young people. They're
00:56:03
more open. They're they're persuadable. They're they went with the Democratic Socialist. You know,
00:56:10
democratic socialists don't kill Jews. National Socialists kill Jews. Many of
00:56:15
our allies are have been or are democratic socialists. I'm not worried
00:56:21
about democratic socialists. I'm worried about dictators. That's what I'm worried about and so are they because they told
00:56:28
us which way they wanted to go. Okay, that was a great interview. Um that's and I again I recommend the show.
00:56:33
Um and it's it's really full of really things I didn't know and I'm a history buff. Okay, that's the show. Uh thanks
00:56:40
for listening to Pivot and be sure to like and subscribe to our YouTube channel. will be back on Friday. Scott, read us out.
00:56:45
Today's show is produced by Larara Neon, Zoe Marcus, and Taylor Griffin. Ernie Todd engineered this episode. Jim Mel
00:56:50
edited the video. Thanks also to Drew Burroughs, Mia Seo, and Dan Shalon. Nishad Kura is Vox Media's executive
00:56:56
producer of podcast. Make sure to follow Pivot on your favorite podcast platform. Thanks for listening to Pivot from New
00:57:02
York Magazine and Vox Media. You can subscribe to the magazine at nymag.com/pod. We'll be back later this week for
00:57:08
another breakdown of all things tech and business.