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[Music]
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so G Aviation commercial systems uh is u
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a provider of Electric Power Systems
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avionics and flight management systems
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uh Nel actuation land gear systems uh as
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well as uh the Unison engine components
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and Unison
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systems first foremost I mean our
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industry has always gone through cycles
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and each cycle uh after the downturn
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goes through a period of expansion which
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is larger than the period before it uh I
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believe here in the next year or two
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we'll begin the U uh a an expansion in
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our industry which will be the single
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largest expansion in aviation history
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um if you look at the Baseline
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demographics of the industry the growth
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in uh uh worldwide GDP the growth in per
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capita GDP the growth in the Emerging
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Markets uh we're no longer going to be
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uh an industry that is that is centered
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around the United States and Western
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Europe which is really the only two
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markets where the industry is mature the
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rest of the world is going to come up to
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the same level of uh use of Aviation uh
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that both Western Europe and the United
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states do today uh and that's going to
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provide for an underlying uh strength in
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the in the uh in the growth of the
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industry yeah so if you think about it
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um clearly uh China is uh is just an
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enormous emerging power um and a a very
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large uh uh GDP and a and a and a
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growing
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GDP um an or a country who's who's been
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able to sustain large single-digit or
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small double digit growth for years and
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has has had to manage the rate of growth
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um which is a a very high class problem
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to have uh China is uh is a tremendous
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Market it's also a tremendous partner uh
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and it's a tremendous uh growth space
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for for us at GE and GE Aviation systems
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especially so just recently uh GE
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Aviation systems uh announced a joint
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venture with its avionics business with
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Avic which is with the largest uh
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Avionics manufactur in in China and it's
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through that joint venture that we will
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uh be a part of that our content will be
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a part of the comac 919 aircraft which
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will be China's first uh real Western uh
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narrow body uh that airplane will be uh
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an airplane developed in China with many
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Western Partners um and our uh our CFM
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engine of which GE is a 5050 joint
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venture partner with snma will also be
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the engine that powers that aircraft and
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we think that that aircraft will will uh
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do very well and be a big part of the
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aviation landscape in the future uh that
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aircraft will is scheduled the first fly
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between 2015 and
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2016 um but it will be um it'll be
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China's first four-way into a large
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narrow body aircraft um that will be uh
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uh that could be widely sold to the rest
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of the
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world I think when you think about China
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what you have to think about is the
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relative state of maturity um and so uh
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China has not developed a lot of
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aircraft for a western market and
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certified them uh to Western standards
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however the other thing you have to
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think about with China is their ability
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uh to overcome those obstacles and the
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rate at which they can overcome those
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obstacles I mean China has basically
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done in the last 10 years what it's
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taken our Western uh Nations 50 years to
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accomplish and that rate uh of change
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and the amount of intellect that they
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can pour into that uh requirement for
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change is tremendous uh very very
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powerful Brazil is a a fabulous Aviation
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market and it continues to develop um
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the Brazilian economy is very strong I
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think the the Brazilians have done a
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phenomenal job there um you see the
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growth the liberalization of the
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airlines there and the growth of per
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capita GDP and where they intersect you
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see the enormous explosion in in air
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traffic um you know the largest carriers
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in in Brazil still have 15 to 20% and
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their passengers as firsttime passengers
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every single flight and that's very very
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powerful uh Brazil a country of 197
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million people is a country that uh will
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continue to have a very large uh
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Aviation demographic also the distances
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between the cities in Brazil uh will
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also uh Demand air travel uh the other
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nations that are extremely uh uh
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important to us as the growing nations
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are uh was formerly Eastern Europe the
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Eastern European Central European
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countries uh those markets to continue
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to develop and the
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and the uh the economies of those
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Nations continue to be um to weather
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this storm and will continue to be
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strong in the future countries like
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Poland the Czech Republic Etc and so
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we're we're doing um work with those
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Nations as well we have um engineering
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and Technology Centers in India uh in
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Poland in Mexico in China uh and we uh
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recently purchased a an engine
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manufacturer in the Czech Republic uh
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Walter which is a 95y old engine
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manufacturer and that through that
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acquisition we will be able to grow into
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an adjacent space for us in G aviation
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in a small turbo prop
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Market think about it from a standpoint
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of of Market maturity right so so in Air
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transport um the um uh Western Europe
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and the United States are mature markets
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in business Aviation Western Europe and
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the United States are mature markets but
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really nowhere else in the world um
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business Mark the business Aviation
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Market general aviation Market is fueled
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by basically two things uh per capital
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wealth and the and the security concerns
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and so that market is is virtually
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non-existent in many nations of the
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world where you have a tremendous growth
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in wealth and that that will be a
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booming industry in the years to come I
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think that the Air transport Market is
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just purely function of where uh per
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capita GDP reaches a certain point and
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if you have a open liberalization of the
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Air transport industry in that in that
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uh country for instance India then you
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just get the explosion of Air transport
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and and that's going to continue to to
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occur
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wealth uh the growth of wealth in
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Nations tends to drive people into uh
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into more urban centers uh away from
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their homes uh their historic homes as
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it did in the United States and as it
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did in Europe and uh and then you you
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create a uh an industry around the
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travel of those people to and from their
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homes or between business locations
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India for instance you know you have the
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major markets in Delhi and Mumbai and
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Bombay and Chennai Etc and there are
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some very new airports there and some
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very capable carriers there and we'll
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continue to see that growth because
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let's face it there's there's still a
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billion people in China or in
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India sure well I mean one of the most
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exciting things is the is the um is the
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work that we have
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ongoing um to try to bring open rotor
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technology to the commercial narrow body
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Market uh we have a uh we have a a
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current test with NASA between GE and
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NASA using the uh NASA Glenn facility in
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Ohio and we're we have an open rotor rig
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test there that's uh we're learning
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about new blade shapes we're learning
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about how to make open rotor viable on a
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commercial Air transport aircraft um we
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flew an open rotor in the mid 80s and
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it's not a matter of being able to fly
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it it's a matter of being able or
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whether or not it'll be tremendously
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efficient it will be tremendously
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efficient and we have proven that we can
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fly it it's can you make it reliable
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enough and can you overcome the
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installation issues related to a very
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large fan on the back of the aircraft
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but that is tremendously exciting
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because you know when you talk about the
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advantages of open rotor you're talking
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about another incremental 15% uh lower
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fuel burn which is lower carbon
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emissions as well so if you can overcome
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the noise issues and the insulation
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issues which are not trivial uh but that
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would be an exciting step function that
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would be as big a change to airplanes as
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uh airplanes going to high bypass fans
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for instance open rotor would be um uh
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it would be a uh think about a
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conventional jet installation on the um
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aft mounted typically on the aircraft uh
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and two blade sets uh with eight blades
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each counter rotating and the blades
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being fully articulated and so those
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blade sets um give you an infinite
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bypass uh ratio on the on the engine and
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it it dramatically improves fuel burn
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and so um you know it becomes a a very
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exciting new new technology new space I
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think the other areas that are very
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exciting around um flight management
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system and uh air traffic management and
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the use of what's called r&p or required
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navigation procedures and r P approaches
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allow us to do continuous descent
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approaches today when an airplane comes
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out of altitude it wants to come out of
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altitude at a constant rated descent at
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a con at what's what is the optimum um
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of lift over drag so the most fuel
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efficient descent possible and from high
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altitudes you're talking about descents
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that last 100 miles now today what
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happens is you get a descent and you get
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a descent and you get a descent but in
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between those descents you level off and
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you increase your fuel burn and you are
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burning more fuel at lower altitudes in
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the future we'll be able to to uh use
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time-based
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trajectory and predict the threshold
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Crossing time of the aircraft at the
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threshold of the runway plus or minus 5
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to 7 seconds and when you can do that
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when you can get that level of control
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then you just dramatically improve the
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efficiency of the
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system if all aircraft were capable of
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r&p today you could save maybe as much
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as 12% total worldwide fuel burn now
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that's a huge number because air traffic
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management you know will spend billions
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of dollars to develop a new engine uh or
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to develop new technology the air
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Frameworks will spend tens of billions
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of dollars to develop a brand new
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airplane and we we lose much of that
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benefit with people flying in the wrong
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direction um with people uh doing
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intermediate level offs with people uh
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in holding patterns and things that
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really diminish the efficiency and the
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productivity of the airplane it's all
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about making the airplane as productive
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and efficient as possible
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and so that's what we're
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about you know I think if you think
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about the the future of Aviation you
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know in in the times of the
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downturn it's always easy to become
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convinced that that uh you know
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aviation's growth was uh was yesterday's
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phenomenon it won't be the phenomenon of
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the future and I think the reality is is
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that in in every in every
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economy uh where you where you have a of
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developed uh where a country becomes a
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developed Nation um you see the
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tremendous growth in aviation and I
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think that that that Aviation is an
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extremely exciting place to be
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Innovations still continue at a at a
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record pace and there's still tremendous
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gain to be had uh we are far from being
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done uh with innovating airplanes and
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they will continue to be innovate to be
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more and more efficient as as we go
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forward
