00:00:03
salty Freeburg reminds me of a story for
00:00:05
this weekend okay we're waiting in line
00:00:07
to go to The Encore Beach Club to see
00:00:09
kaigo and kygo me and Friedberg are at
00:00:12
the back of the line everybody else has
00:00:13
gotten through all you guys are
00:00:15
filtering into the booth I go it was
00:00:17
tight everywhere
00:00:19
and they say take out your clothes so I
00:00:22
put off my phone that's all I have my
00:00:24
key card
00:00:38
the guy says no food in the club no and
00:00:41
he goes what do you mean no food this is
00:00:43
in a bag it's like it's just for sale
00:00:45
shoes just precise they get in an
00:00:47
argument back and forth he's like I'm
00:00:49
gonna take a stand this is outrageous I
00:00:51
said Freebird come on let's just go so
00:00:52
we go inside this is where he takes a
00:00:54
stand and then he's like can you believe
00:00:56
it they took my pistachios like
00:00:57
these were my pistachios
00:00:59
tilted easily and then and then all the
00:01:02
way out he's like if I see that guy
00:01:04
eating these pistachios and I thought
00:01:07
this is a Curb Your Enthusiasm
00:01:09
skit right here are those my pistachios
00:01:14
that guy was walking through the casino
00:01:15
later eating the pistachios I fell in
00:01:18
love with Freeburg this weekend I had so
00:01:19
much fun with this girl oh my
00:01:21
god there he is in the club he's so
00:01:23
great he's so he was he was living his
00:01:25
best life Nick show the bigger picture
00:01:27
Nick just zoom out so you can see oh
00:01:29
there I am yeah I'm right next to him
00:01:30
there's me look at how huge my ass looks
00:01:33
God it's a lot of that's a lot of s that
00:01:35
is look at that huge dumper wow that's
00:01:38
incredible and what's going on with
00:01:40
those are those underwear who's good is
00:01:43
that Jake house that's my cat but I
00:01:45
think it's just the T-shirt I think it's
00:01:46
just a t-shirt you obviously stopped the
00:01:48
Olympic yeah no I'm still I'm still
00:01:50
sideways I'm still sideways 170. put it
00:01:52
right back on didn't you nope no you
00:01:54
stopped his impact and it came right
00:01:56
back Vegas was so fun I gotta say give a
00:01:58
shout out to those guys that run that
00:02:00
Delilah joint I think that's like the
00:02:01
best new restaurant that is a really
00:02:02
great place a little loud I wish it
00:02:05
would just go like one notch lower on
00:02:07
the volume for the overview because
00:02:08
we're all good scene once you hit 50
00:02:10
yeah all the clubs are too long
00:02:16
[Music]
00:02:27
with us again on the all-in podcast the
00:02:30
architect himself crazy hair doesn't
00:02:32
care David sacks Friedberg is committing
00:02:36
suicide in the bottom of a pool
00:02:37
apparently he just cannot take all the
00:02:40
adulation and inside that's the Leaving
00:02:43
Las Vegas scene exactly that's You
00:02:45
Leaving Vegas uh down 150 dimes which
00:02:48
you could have given to DeSantis like
00:02:50
sax did and
00:02:52
hot off of his wonderful weekend the
00:02:56
Afterglow of Vegas
00:02:59
we went to Vegas to play cards it was a
00:03:01
wonderful weekend we had a great time
00:03:03
everybody bonded
00:03:04
a lot of laughs were had wonderful time
00:03:07
wonderful time wonderful time I got into
00:03:10
craps I was never a craps guy but I had
00:03:12
a I had one of those how great was Jay
00:03:14
Colin crabs oh my God I got a 40 I had a
00:03:17
40 dieroll run it was incredible there's
00:03:19
something about that game that is like
00:03:21
super addicting to me oh
00:03:24
when you just go on a 40 die roll oh I
00:03:27
think craps really is one of the best
00:03:31
gambling games ever created so exciting
00:03:34
it's so exciting it's so exciting it's
00:03:37
just like hitting the hard ways and then
00:03:40
the feature bats the feature bats
00:03:43
leaky bets no but when they hit they're
00:03:45
just so fun when they hit they just all
00:03:47
the dopamine gets released loved it I
00:03:49
spiked Aces for the max bet it was like
00:03:51
oh I saw that you put 500 on it yeah
00:03:53
they only let me bet 500 but I bet 31-1
00:03:55
on Aces hit it hmm
00:03:58
table went crazy when that 15 dimes were
00:04:01
pushed uh speaking about pushing 150
00:04:03
dimes uh it's actually been getting a
00:04:05
lot of press for being the architect I
00:04:07
saw some stories let me ask you a
00:04:09
question total fake news all fake news
00:04:11
we know that everybody's emailing me to
00:04:13
try to get answers about you I just CCU
00:04:16
on this but the Press has been trying to
00:04:17
cover
00:04:18
Your Role architecting the Ron DeSantis
00:04:21
presidential we talked about it last
00:04:22
week
00:04:24
well the press wants to know what 150
00:04:26
dime skis is they could look it up in
00:04:28
the Urban Dictionary I think that would
00:04:30
be easier
00:04:31
but let me ask you a question about your
00:04:34
giving strategy or your donation
00:04:36
strategy I notice that you're donating
00:04:38
to RFK
00:04:40
for president and you're donating to Ron
00:04:43
DeSantis are you donating to any other
00:04:45
presidential candidates
00:04:47
and why are you betting both sides of
00:04:49
the aisle this is confusing to me I
00:04:50
thought you wanted one side to win I
00:04:52
mean I've already explained this on
00:04:53
previous pods I don't know the answer
00:04:54
what's the the simplest way to
00:04:56
understand my political giving is just
00:04:58
to watch the all in pod and I always end
00:05:01
up describing who I'm supporting and why
00:05:05
and which causes on the Pod first
00:05:08
and then I back it up I put my money
00:05:09
where my mouth is so there's no mystery
00:05:12
there's no like backroom deals going on
00:05:14
it's just me writing checks and
00:05:15
supportive things I've almost always
00:05:17
already talked about on the pod
00:05:19
okay so what about this question of
00:05:22
betting both sides so you're you're
00:05:24
betting for both teams in a in a
00:05:27
basketball series like I don't know I
00:05:29
don't understand that well I've said
00:05:30
that it's not competitive at this point
00:05:32
I've said that I would support RFK Jr
00:05:34
for the Democratic party nomination and
00:05:37
I support DeSantis on the Republican
00:05:39
side
00:05:39
because no contradiction I guess if they
00:05:41
both made it to the general
00:05:43
then I'd have a real dilemma but let's
00:05:46
face it they're both underdogs in their
00:05:48
Lane
00:05:49
okay it'd be a high-class problem to
00:05:51
have if it ended up being a DeSantis
00:05:53
Kennedy race instead of a Biden Trump
00:05:56
repeat well I mean I played blackjack
00:05:58
with you and you do play multiple hands
00:05:59
at once so I guess it does this does
00:06:02
track it's it's not enough action for
00:06:04
you to just play one hand I don't really
00:06:05
see a contradiction there right now
00:06:07
there's a
00:06:09
Trump DeSantis race going on and there's
00:06:12
a Biden Kennedy race going on okay now
00:06:14
you hold a lot of fundraisers chamoth
00:06:17
and I are actually doing an event for
00:06:18
Bobby Kennedy
00:06:20
soon in the next two weeks got it let's
00:06:22
go to YouTube well I think it's
00:06:23
important to just
00:06:26
acknowledge an uncomfortable truth and I
00:06:29
come at it from
00:06:31
a person who's independent I'm not
00:06:33
registered democrat or republican but
00:06:35
I've donated millions of dollars to the
00:06:36
Democrats in the last couple of Cycles
00:06:40
but I'm concerned
00:06:42
about Joe Biden's mental acuity
00:06:46
and recently
00:06:49
when you look at how
00:06:51
[Music]
00:06:52
the White House behaves
00:06:55
the thing that I'm worried about is that
00:06:57
there's almost like this Sensation that
00:06:59
there's a shadow government that's
00:07:00
actually running the country
00:07:03
and we didn't elect any of those people
00:07:06
and this is nothing to say anything bad
00:07:08
about Janet Yellen or Jeff Zions or
00:07:10
anybody else
00:07:12
but I think it's very important to
00:07:14
acknowledge that you know other
00:07:16
presidents have typically seen
00:07:19
turnover in the highest ranks of
00:07:21
government every two years or so
00:07:24
and there's been
00:07:25
incredible consistency now one could say
00:07:28
well that's a good thing the other side
00:07:30
of it is well that's what allows more
00:07:32
vibrancy in government and to make sure
00:07:34
that the president remains always in
00:07:36
charge
00:07:38
and so I think it's very important in
00:07:40
this moment where we have a president
00:07:42
who's 82 odd years old or however old he
00:07:44
is
00:07:47
we need to have the chance the American
00:07:48
public to re-underwrite his mental
00:07:51
acuity and I think that's a judgment
00:07:52
that we should all be allowed to make
00:07:54
and I think the fairest way to do that
00:07:57
is to feel the candidate
00:07:59
who can be on the debate stage with him
00:08:01
and who can actually just go toe-to-toe
00:08:04
on the critical issues so that we as an
00:08:06
American electorate can decide for
00:08:08
ourselves where does this issue land is
00:08:12
he mentally super sharp and ready to go
00:08:14
for another four years in which case a
00:08:16
lot of folks will support him or is this
00:08:19
a moment where we actually need to be
00:08:20
very responsible at the future of the
00:08:22
country and not create some puppet
00:08:24
government situation I don't think it's
00:08:25
funny that we have this Weekend at
00:08:28
Bernie's like meme that goes around
00:08:30
about it this is the president of the
00:08:32
United States it's the most important
00:08:34
person in the world we can't be in a
00:08:36
situation where like that is a 30
00:08:38
probability that people joke about
00:08:42
so my support of Bobby Kennedy is in
00:08:45
part because what I've heard from him I
00:08:47
find intriguing but the more important
00:08:49
thing is somebody needs to be in the
00:08:52
arena
00:08:54
on the Democratic side and put to test
00:08:57
this mental acuity construct here and
00:09:00
get us to an answer
00:09:02
because otherwise I am worried that
00:09:04
there's a bunch of folks that were not
00:09:05
elected who are actually running the
00:09:07
government and I'm not sure how much
00:09:09
Biden actually knows or doesn't know and
00:09:10
I want to know the answer to that
00:09:11
question I think everybody wants to know
00:09:13
that answer and feels like Democrats
00:09:14
would like a different candidate that's
00:09:16
what the polling is showing to be you
00:09:19
know put on the field here
00:09:20
and there is the issue of he's had the
00:09:23
fewest number of news conferences we
00:09:24
don't get to hear from him directly
00:09:26
which then fuels I think
00:09:29
this perception Friedberg
00:09:31
that he's
00:09:33
in cognitive decline and perhaps the
00:09:35
cognitive decline has increased
00:09:37
Republicans love to in the right love to
00:09:40
you know make these images of him
00:09:42
confused on stage who knows if he's
00:09:45
actually confused or if those are being
00:09:47
selectively edited but it certainly
00:09:49
doesn't look good when you don't put the
00:09:52
person out there to face the music
00:09:54
and to take hard questions
00:09:56
I can't imagine he would do very well in
00:09:58
a town hall or in an extended number of
00:10:01
debates and so this is the thing that I
00:10:03
find truly scary is
00:10:05
if the guy can't make it through the
00:10:06
debates and he can't debate RFK and 10
00:10:09
other people
00:10:10
and he can't do news conferences and we
00:10:13
haven't heard directly from him or had
00:10:15
him like face some really hard
00:10:17
questioning he did one thing on MSNBC or
00:10:20
CNN and it was so pathetically
00:10:21
sycophantic
00:10:24
and it looked like it was highly edited
00:10:25
I kind of like the the host who did it
00:10:28
I'll pull up her name in a minute I
00:10:29
forgot her name right now she's actually
00:10:30
pretty good she's kind of funny and
00:10:32
she's kind of insightful but she just so
00:10:34
through softball to softball is there an
00:10:35
age
00:10:36
Sultan of science that we should have a
00:10:38
cognitive test for
00:10:40
for office in your mind
00:10:42
I don't have an opinion on that
00:10:45
you don't
00:10:46
on an age I mean yeah like should we or
00:10:49
should we have a cognitive test
00:10:51
can we cognitively test the president of
00:10:54
the United States for office like
00:10:55
there's always saying is that when you
00:10:57
hold debates and you do town halls and
00:10:59
you do rallies then that is a cognitive
00:11:02
test you'll see you'll be able to take
00:11:04
the cognitive measure by seeing how
00:11:06
quick on their feet they are but if
00:11:09
Biden doesn't debate anybody we won't
00:11:11
see it
00:11:12
and right now they're saying they won't
00:11:14
debate Kennedy so that tells you right
00:11:17
there that they're afraid of something I
00:11:19
just want to reiterate this this is the
00:11:21
single most important person in the
00:11:23
world
00:11:24
in the single most important job
00:11:27
if it breaks your brain in A Moment Like
00:11:31
This to not be partisan and think what
00:11:34
would you do if it was the other side
00:11:36
I just think you're like an unpatriotic
00:11:39
rube and you're gonna get tricked I'm
00:11:41
not saying you Jason I'm saying anybody
00:11:43
that thinks that I'm in your Camp I want
00:11:45
to see him debate yeah especially if the
00:11:46
Ukraine war is still going on because
00:11:48
we're that close to being in a direct
00:11:50
shooting war with Russia which could
00:11:52
lead to a nuclear war so you need more
00:11:55
money to be contained I'll be more
00:11:56
worried about the relationships
00:11:58
contained I think it's escalated I don't
00:11:59
think it's contained it's escalating and
00:12:01
as of yesterday there seems to be some
00:12:03
configuration between Kosovo and Serbia
00:12:05
that's kicking up so all of a sudden
00:12:07
we're talking about a totally different
00:12:09
European land war and we have fiscal
00:12:12
instability we're about to talk about it
00:12:14
today but
00:12:15
the Home Market could implode in the
00:12:17
United States the commercial real estate
00:12:19
market has already imploded there's all
00:12:22
this complexity
00:12:24
and I think that the idea that you can't
00:12:26
demand
00:12:28
the most important person in the world
00:12:30
to be on top of their game I just think
00:12:33
that that's outrageous you expect the
00:12:35
best player in the NBA to be elite right
00:12:38
yes of course yes they have to get good
00:12:40
sleep they have to have good Fitness
00:12:41
they're measuring every single dimension
00:12:44
of an NBA player's life they measure
00:12:46
their sleep now their diet their
00:12:48
shooting percentages everything
00:12:50
and we're not doing that for the
00:12:51
president United States by the way the
00:12:53
MSNBC host who got the one interview
00:12:55
I've seen with Biden in years was
00:12:57
Stephanie rule are you h-l-e from 11th
00:13:01
Hour well they give him the questions
00:13:03
that's how she gets the interview have
00:13:05
you seen that like Biden has these cue
00:13:07
cards when he goes with the podium and
00:13:09
literally it's got the questions and it
00:13:10
says who to call on so they script the
00:13:12
whole thing that's a stack down that's a
00:13:13
stack deck but Trump did that as well if
00:13:15
you remember
00:13:17
nobody gave him the questions
00:13:22
he said a PR the mcanany lady
00:13:25
she had a huge binder and she would flip
00:13:28
to the talk my point is that's okay we
00:13:30
never did the same thing with this
00:13:31
answer what are you talking about didn't
00:13:33
you pick the first five speakers the
00:13:34
first five questions were people you
00:13:35
knew you said that he didn't stack the
00:13:37
deck Jason come on stop
00:13:39
we didn't have a script you picked the
00:13:41
first five speakers my point press
00:13:43
conference that's an introductory event
00:13:45
that's the one announcing okay fine
00:13:46
whatever same thing
00:13:48
no no no we're talking about a White
00:13:51
House Press Conference and he goes up to
00:13:54
the podium and secretly when they zoom
00:13:56
in on the camera they're seeing that
00:13:59
literally he knows who to call on and
00:14:01
what the question is going to be so in
00:14:03
other words the media is cooperating
00:14:05
with the buying Administration for
00:14:07
access
00:14:08
for Access and they're giving him the
00:14:10
questions all right anyway let's let's
00:14:12
move on I think it's very important to
00:14:14
just acknowledge that you're trying to
00:14:15
normalize it by comparing it to the
00:14:17
company different kind of event I am
00:14:19
saying that is something they never did
00:14:20
that with Trump they never give Trump
00:14:22
the questions he loves to mix it up I
00:14:24
mean that's why he's winning that's how
00:14:25
you know he's still mentally fit I mean
00:14:27
a mentally unfit Trump would be a scary
00:14:29
proposition you may or may not like his
00:14:31
personality or temperament but no one is
00:14:33
accusing him of being senile no he's
00:14:35
sharp we're having dementia I think it's
00:14:37
important to get on the record I don't
00:14:38
think we are saying that he is unfit to
00:14:41
be president I think at least what I'm
00:14:43
saying is
00:14:45
we have a right to underwrite the
00:14:47
president every four years and on this
00:14:49
dimension
00:14:51
this is the biggest issue that I see
00:14:53
with Biden
00:14:55
and I'm concerned in the lack of
00:14:59
turnover in the White House
00:15:01
and I want to know that he is actually
00:15:05
in charge day to day and making the
00:15:07
decisions versus a shadow government
00:15:11
that's all I want to know and I want to
00:15:13
see him live on the debate stage
00:15:15
so that he can validate yes that he is
00:15:19
firmly on the controls 100 of Americans
00:15:21
want this the only people who don't want
00:15:23
it is people who are in power
00:15:25
who you know are part of his group
00:15:26
that's not 100 doesn't mean I'm talking
00:15:31
about Americans who vote they all want
00:15:32
to see him debate I don't think I don't
00:15:34
know anybody who doesn't want to see a
00:15:35
vibrant debate so I think this is
00:15:38
something the Democratic party the
00:15:40
parties against it the Democratic party
00:15:42
needs to rethink their stance on this
00:15:43
put them out there put him on the field
00:15:45
up or down left or right he has to
00:15:47
debate at least three four debates in
00:15:50
the primaries you know earn a slot it'll
00:15:52
do real damage to the Democrats if Bobby
00:15:55
Kennedy gets a ton of steam and they
00:15:58
ignore him I'll give you a different
00:15:59
example of how Bobby's being roadblocked
00:16:01
which is when you go to 538.com and you
00:16:04
look at you know Nate does a great job
00:16:05
of pulling up all of the polling that
00:16:07
happens from all of the
00:16:09
polling agencies
00:16:11
there are many instances where the
00:16:13
Democratic Fields won't even include him
00:16:15
when they ask him questions
00:16:18
and so there is definitely a concerted
00:16:20
effort here and I think it's not that I
00:16:22
don't want Joe Biden to win I think he's
00:16:24
he could be fantastic again I voted for
00:16:27
him and I think that if he's mentally
00:16:29
sharp and his hands are on there what
00:16:31
are the chances you think he's Sharp
00:16:32
no I'm saying I don't know I know for
00:16:36
myself what do you think the chances are
00:16:38
I'm just using logic here I think they
00:16:40
could be pretty good actually you know
00:16:41
there's a lot of like if you look at
00:16:43
Buffett he's 92 he's sharp as attack
00:16:45
monger's 96 he's sharpest attack I think
00:16:47
that if you live reasonably well and
00:16:49
Biden's got some great things working
00:16:50
for him he's he's been a teetotaler his
00:16:52
whole life so all the things that would
00:16:54
have caught up with you in your 80s
00:16:56
Biden has avoided so from a health
00:16:58
perspective he has the best chance of
00:17:00
being on top of his game can he be
00:17:02
physically frail I don't care about that
00:17:03
you know that happens to everybody so I
00:17:07
think it's important to disambiguate
00:17:09
those two and so it is very easy to tell
00:17:12
when you're standing on a debate stage
00:17:14
hell you can sit on the debate stage I
00:17:17
don't care but I want you to be able to
00:17:19
explain what you think in a way that's
00:17:22
cogent and coherent and you walk away
00:17:24
thinking oh I feel safer with him with
00:17:27
his hands on the controls here sex what
00:17:29
do you think is he what do you think the
00:17:30
chances are he's sharp as attack he's
00:17:33
not in cognitive decline he's not sure
00:17:35
we know that uh the question is whether
00:17:38
he can serve at all should people have
00:17:42
to take a cognitive test do you think
00:17:43
that would be a good Improvement no look
00:17:44
I think the debates the cognitive test
00:17:46
but what about the Senate and stuff like
00:17:48
that because it does seem like people
00:17:49
are the voters are the cognitive test
00:17:51
okay the problem is when the media is
00:17:54
cooperating with the candidate by not
00:17:56
asking them tough questions or even
00:17:58
worse sharing the questions with them to
00:18:00
give voters a false impression of how
00:18:02
strong they are I mean look the media's
00:18:04
job is to be fundamentally antagonistic
00:18:07
with the people on power not to
00:18:08
cooperate with them here's something
00:18:10
super intriguing that happened this week
00:18:12
Jamie dimon has hinted at running for
00:18:15
office
00:18:16
Bill Ackman made a case for him
00:18:18
to run for president in 2024 this is
00:18:21
getting a lot of steam all of a sudden
00:18:22
people are talking about it on CNBC uh
00:18:25
and it's trending on Twitter on
00:18:27
Wednesday JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie
00:18:29
diamond made some comments about
00:18:30
potentially running for office in the
00:18:32
future quote
00:18:33
I love my country and maybe one day I'll
00:18:35
serve my country in one capacity or
00:18:37
another he's 67 years old
00:18:40
you didn't know that Bill Ackman tweeted
00:18:43
his support for Diamond running as a Dem
00:18:45
against Biden
00:18:47
Hackman put out a number of compelling
00:18:49
points diamond is one of the world's
00:18:51
most respected Business Leaders that's
00:18:52
true politically Centrist pro-business
00:18:54
Pro free enterprise all true supportive
00:18:57
of well-designed social programs and
00:18:58
rational tax policies that can help the
00:19:00
less fortunate smart thoughtful
00:19:01
pragmatic notice how to bring opposing
00:19:03
parties together highly respected by
00:19:06
right left and Center I think that's
00:19:07
also true
00:19:08
superbly managed JPMorgan through every
00:19:11
crisis quote no straight
00:19:14
talking charismatic leader with an
00:19:16
enormous grasp of the world's issues and
00:19:19
how to address them
00:19:21
ath I'll just ask it to you plainly if
00:19:23
you had three choices or four choices
00:19:25
Trump
00:19:27
DeSantis Biden and the Jedi Jamie dimon
00:19:31
stack rank those for us rank them who do
00:19:34
you got who do you vote for those are
00:19:36
your four choices probably
00:19:39
Jamie Diamond one okay
00:19:42
DeSantis two okay
00:19:45
and Trump and Biden it's a bit of a tie
00:19:49
a bit of a tie garbage garbage okay not
00:19:51
garbage garbage don't don't say that but
00:19:53
okay it's a bit of a time I mean it's
00:19:55
two people that nobody wants to vote for
00:19:57
it seems uh wants to run I personally
00:19:59
believe that the era of septogenarians
00:20:02
and octogenarians should come to an end
00:20:04
in terms of their ability to run this
00:20:06
country I want that transition now Jamie
00:20:09
is 67 so but he's he's still much
00:20:12
younger than these two other guys and
00:20:13
again yours is a lot it's a lot and
00:20:16
vitality energy
00:20:19
this matters and I think that he is a
00:20:22
very competent economic rational actor
00:20:26
so it would be interesting to see I mean
00:20:28
look the reality is if I had to be
00:20:30
really honest with you I think that what
00:20:32
we should do is keep chipping away
00:20:34
at The Establishment in how they pick
00:20:36
candidates it's going to be a slow
00:20:39
process but I think in 10 or 15 years
00:20:42
the real thing that we should all do is
00:20:43
if there's enough citizen journalism
00:20:46
that we should really just change the
00:20:48
Constitution
00:20:49
so that we can allow people that have
00:20:52
been here for 25 plus years that have
00:20:54
paid all their taxes that have followed
00:20:55
all the rules to run for president and
00:20:58
then we could actually just we could
00:21:00
vote Elon in and just have him clean it
00:21:01
up the way he's cleaning up everything
00:21:03
else
00:21:04
for honestly why not just do that I mean
00:21:07
who would who would not want them sax
00:21:10
let me ask you to stack Rank and then
00:21:11
we'll get you the
00:21:13
change in the Constitution issue which
00:21:15
is that is the Hail Mary
00:21:17
how would you rank those four I think
00:21:19
that we have run out of topics to talk
00:21:23
about if Bill ackman's latest political
00:21:25
brain fart is a major topic of
00:21:28
conversation
00:21:30
I think this is inspired you guys put
00:21:33
Trump in office the GOP put trumpet
00:21:34
office he's the outsider is Outsider
00:21:36
lunatic
00:21:38
and you can't even consider Jamie you're
00:21:41
laughing at that and you put Trump in
00:21:43
office you guys put Trump in office and
00:21:45
you're gonna do it again you mean you
00:21:46
guys listen the
00:21:48
goparty here's the part about this
00:21:50
conversation that sort of makes sense
00:21:52
two-thirds of the country says that they
00:21:54
are uninspired and in fact fatigued by
00:21:57
the idea of having a repeat of the same
00:21:58
choice that four years ago everybody
00:22:00
wants a different choice so I get this
00:22:03
like fantasy basketball drafting thing
00:22:06
that we're trying to do here okay the
00:22:09
reason why I call it the brain fart and
00:22:12
I look Bill's a really smart guy I'm not
00:22:13
dragging him but in order to win the
00:22:16
presidency you have to get the
00:22:17
nomination of a major party and the
00:22:19
problem with all this like fantasy
00:22:20
drafting is that you're trying to draft
00:22:22
people who are anathema to the party
00:22:26
that you're trying to get them the
00:22:27
nomination from and
00:22:29
Trump was able to get the nomination the
00:22:33
Republican Party Jamie dying would have
00:22:35
to get the nomination of the democratic
00:22:36
party that's not going to happen and it
00:22:37
does remind me of Bloomberg remember
00:22:39
Bloomberg spent 100 million dollars on
00:22:41
his campaign came in late yeah
00:22:43
he spent a lot of money and he made it
00:22:45
to the first question of the first
00:22:47
debate remember what happened Elizabeth
00:22:49
Warren said that this is a billionaire
00:22:51
who talks about he didn't fight he laid
00:22:55
down he rolled over she like ended him
00:22:57
it was one question one debate
00:22:59
so my point is that you got to be able
00:23:01
to get the nomination of a major party
00:23:02
and actually I think neither party could
00:23:05
nominate a banker right now I mean if
00:23:07
you saw what happened around the whole
00:23:09
banking crisis that I think still going
00:23:12
on in slow motion I mean the amount of
00:23:14
animosity both towards the banks that
00:23:17
went under and and the idea of you know
00:23:20
potentially bailing them out and then
00:23:22
also the animosity towards JP Morgan
00:23:24
when it actually bought
00:23:27
First Republic I mean both parties have
00:23:30
such a strong populist winging them
00:23:32
right now that I think you could never
00:23:34
get
00:23:34
yeah the head of the number one Bank in
00:23:37
the U.S to be their candidate you're
00:23:39
completely wrong I think in this case
00:23:40
respectfully I mean he could run as an
00:23:43
independent as well and although you
00:23:46
know you you like to think or it seems
00:23:49
like you're proposing that things are
00:23:50
going to be as they always were Trump
00:23:52
shows a wild card and then people forget
00:23:54
Ross Perot you know he got 19
00:23:56
of the popular vote he he hit 20 million
00:24:00
votes to Bush's 40 million and Clinton's
00:24:03
44. it is not unprecedented and we are
00:24:06
in a really struggling time you started
00:24:08
this off by saying the Democrats should
00:24:09
draft Jamie diamonds
00:24:14
as an independent there's no movement to
00:24:17
draft the top Banker in the country
00:24:23
okay that was the wild card of all wild
00:24:25
cards he ran he ran in one of the two
00:24:28
major parties and he hit a nerve I know
00:24:30
that's my point so now tell me about
00:24:32
Ross Perot tell me about Ross Perot and
00:24:34
how did he hit 20 million votes and
00:24:36
isn't the world much different right now
00:24:38
because of media because of people going
00:24:39
direct we're talking I mean chamoth just
00:24:41
proposed Elon if you're proposing Elon
00:24:43
you're saying I'm proposing a
00:24:45
constitutional amendment so that
00:24:47
competent people sure who are not being
00:24:49
born in the country got it yeah no if
00:24:51
you've lived here for 25 years or 30
00:24:53
years you've created hundreds of
00:24:55
thousands of jobs and paid tens of
00:24:57
billions of taxes the idea that you are
00:24:59
less fit than half these politicians to
00:25:02
run for president is insane okay that
00:25:04
well that's a different question what do
00:25:05
you think about that yes do you think we
00:25:08
should change the Constitution allow
00:25:10
non-nationals to run for president not
00:25:12
don't stop saying non-nationals it's so
00:25:14
gross it's like well you know it's
00:25:16
people that weren't necessarily born
00:25:17
here but if you lived your whole life
00:25:19
here the majority of your life and you
00:25:21
build value for America and helped it
00:25:23
win all of a sudden you're less capable
00:25:25
of being president that's absolutely not
00:25:27
true oh I didn't say it was I'm I'm
00:25:29
describing what the Constitution says
00:25:31
this was called the Schwarzenegger
00:25:34
Amendment because you know when he was
00:25:35
governor of California there were people
00:25:37
who wanted him to run for president but
00:25:39
look it's too hard to change the
00:25:40
Constitution it's a very difficult
00:25:42
process so do I think that's going to
00:25:44
happen no
00:25:45
would you be in favor of that
00:25:47
and under what circumstances do you
00:25:49
think that it's about saying we should
00:25:50
change that he's emphatic we should
00:25:52
change in effect so what do you think
00:25:53
it's not a pressing issue for me I'd
00:25:55
rather have a balanced budget amendment
00:25:57
I'd rather the president have a line
00:25:58
item veto
00:25:59
to control spending if you want to blow
00:26:02
up the government
00:26:03
and cut it down to size and impose the
00:26:06
ideals of liberalism true liberalism
00:26:08
free speech
00:26:10
well-controlled borders but good
00:26:12
immigration etc etc
00:26:14
I feel like there are lots of people who
00:26:17
could do that
00:26:18
[Music]
00:26:20
and the only difference is they were
00:26:23
accidentally not born here except
00:26:24
they've created more value in America
00:26:26
than most Americans that were born here
00:26:29
this term would actually be foreign born
00:26:31
National would be the most accurate term
00:26:32
correct whatever
00:26:35
dumb term you're using the ones in the
00:26:37
Constitution the government is a starhub
00:26:39
for using accurate terms
00:26:41
um I'll try to use less accurate terms
00:26:43
in the future
00:26:45
so back to James Jamie Diamond nobody
00:26:49
here is questioning whether he is a
00:26:51
supreme competent executive fully grant
00:26:54
that he's done an amazing job
00:26:57
taking JP Morgan it was ready the
00:26:59
biggest he's made it even bigger how is
00:27:01
that possible whether that's a good
00:27:02
thing to say we got to stop the bags
00:27:04
from getting bigger he's a little bit
00:27:05
bigger yeah well that's a good thing for
00:27:07
the country ultimately has a different
00:27:08
question yeah no one questions his
00:27:10
competence and his expertise but again I
00:27:12
see no Groundswell for him in either the
00:27:15
Democratic party or the Republican party
00:27:16
or even as an independent because again
00:27:18
it doesn't fit the populist mood of the
00:27:21
country right now
00:27:22
so that's
00:27:25
you are pragmatic like path to Victory
00:27:27
but let me ask you about competence then
00:27:29
because maybe I could frame the question
00:27:30
and get a better answer out of you
00:27:32
that's what I thought I was answering
00:27:33
when you said who'd be more confident I
00:27:35
mean you guys interpret my questions
00:27:36
have you like you interpret it in terms
00:27:38
of competence
00:27:39
sax interpreted the question
00:27:40
pragmatology getting into office but
00:27:43
let's ask sax the question and I'll ask
00:27:45
you pragmatic then unless ax the
00:27:46
question of competence
00:27:48
in terms of competence I gave you like
00:27:50
four people right is he the most
00:27:52
competent person to run the country
00:27:53
right now no I you think DeSantis is
00:27:55
more competent than him I think that of
00:27:57
all the major candidates who actually
00:27:59
have a realistic shot DeSantis is the
00:28:01
most supremely competent as an executive
00:28:03
he's run the State of Florida he did it
00:28:06
during covet which was a major crisis we
00:28:09
all saw what happened all of our friends
00:28:11
were leaving California because
00:28:14
California had locked down schools were
00:28:16
closed we had the worst learning loss of
00:28:18
any state small businesses were going
00:28:20
under our toddlers had to wear these
00:28:22
stupid pointless cloth masks to score
00:28:25
that group hold on so Florida consensus
00:28:30
kept Florida open they had a great
00:28:32
economy it's number one in job creation
00:28:34
investment people moving there you
00:28:36
balance the budget and that's why he was
00:28:38
able to grow his majority from under one
00:28:40
percent when he first got elected to 20
00:28:42
points so you believe he would be more
00:28:44
qualified than Jamie Diamond
00:28:48
because he's actually been tested in a
00:28:51
political realm God you see you think
00:28:53
that that is the better test I disagree
00:28:55
and I think probably the number one
00:28:57
thing you have to do to be effective
00:28:58
politically is to be able to understand
00:29:00
when the media the mainstream media and
00:29:03
all their fake experts are wrong because
00:29:05
that's why the country's in such a mess
00:29:07
we keep listening to all these fake
00:29:08
experts who are wrong about everything
00:29:10
including covet did Trump do a good job
00:29:12
as president in your mind he listens to
00:29:13
the fake experts he had fauci in there
00:29:15
so you don't think Trump did a good job
00:29:17
as president on covet he listened to
00:29:19
fauci too much but okay because Trump
00:29:20
was an outsider and you seem to think he
00:29:22
did a good job as president a lot of
00:29:24
Republicans do so that's my point he was
00:29:25
an outsider you love putting words in my
00:29:27
mouth and characterizing that I'm I'm
00:29:29
asking you're going to do a good job in
00:29:31
ways that I never quite said okay I'm
00:29:32
just asking you I think I think that
00:29:34
Trump did a number of good things in
00:29:36
office for example he kept us out of
00:29:37
Foreign Wars and I think the economy was
00:29:40
pretty good until covet but yeah he had
00:29:43
no political I would say if they were
00:29:46
like two big Achilles heels one was we
00:29:48
had huge deficits and debt during Trump
00:29:51
and the other was once Covenant happened
00:29:53
he listened to fauci right and fauci was
00:29:55
driving the train during Covenant and
00:29:58
hold on gave us the lockdowns and then
00:30:00
Trump never fired fauci and on Trump's
00:30:03
last day in office he gave him a medal
00:30:06
insane
00:30:09
insane and just so everybody remembers
00:30:12
June 16th 2015 Ben Carson and
00:30:14
businessman Donald Trump tied in fourth
00:30:17
place with five percent so things can
00:30:18
change and now Trump is swinging wildly
00:30:21
at DeSantis saying that DeSantis was
00:30:23
worse than Cuomo on covet okay
00:30:26
litigate that that's the last thing I
00:30:29
want to relitigate is covet man we got
00:30:30
bigger fish to fry DeSantis I think has
00:30:32
been doing really well over the last
00:30:33
week because Trump has been making all
00:30:35
these wild attacks on him
00:30:39
so now like they're they're really
00:30:41
punching at each other it's really
00:30:43
interesting let's pivot to the debt
00:30:44
ceiling real quick here the house wrote
00:30:45
it overwhelmingly lead to pass the debt
00:30:47
ceiling agreement 314 to 117. it's in
00:30:51
the hands of the Senate could be passed
00:30:52
by the time you're listening to this
00:30:54
some Republicans uh think the spending
00:30:56
didn't go far enough no shocker there
00:30:58
but speaker McCarthy called it a first
00:31:00
step
00:31:01
projected the bill would reduce budget
00:31:03
deficits by 1.5 trillion over the next
00:31:05
decade
00:31:06
some highlights non-defense spending
00:31:10
flat in 2024 at 704 billion only
00:31:13
increases one percent in 2025
00:31:16
and am still in the federal budget
00:31:18
growth to one percent for the next six
00:31:20
years
00:31:22
for since 30 billion in unspent coveted
00:31:25
relief money
00:31:26
that seems logical fully funds medical
00:31:28
care for veterans that seems like a good
00:31:30
idea
00:31:32
reallocates 20 billion from the IRS over
00:31:34
the next two years to put towards
00:31:36
non-defense programs
00:31:37
that's that
00:31:39
crazy idea to hire 80 000 or something
00:31:41
IRS agents pauses on student loan
00:31:44
repayments will now end in August we've
00:31:46
talked about that on the show Biden
00:31:47
student loan forgiveness plan will be
00:31:49
settled in the Supreme Court
00:31:52
some stats on U.S debt put up two charts
00:31:55
here and then I'll get freeburg's
00:31:56
position because he's very passionate
00:31:58
about this U.S annual Surplus or
00:32:01
deficits through end of year 2022 see
00:32:05
those uh great years I think those are
00:32:07
the democratic.com Clinton years you did
00:32:11
ran it up
00:32:12
well done Clinton U.S national debt end
00:32:15
of year 2022 my Lord
00:32:18
uh 32 getting close to 32 trillion U.S
00:32:22
annual federal spending
00:32:24
up it around well I'm breaking Six
00:32:27
Trillion a year and tax revenue by
00:32:29
deficit here there you have it go to
00:32:31
that uh the red chart this is our
00:32:33
national debt this is a upside down
00:32:35
hockey stick so this is what's
00:32:37
concerning about it is we're going
00:32:38
exponential on this thing
00:32:41
the problem with this just to reframe it
00:32:44
once again for the hundred thousandth
00:32:46
time wait a second wait this red chart
00:32:48
isn't this freeberg's losses in Vegas
00:32:49
this weekend
00:32:51
I think that's oh no that's our
00:32:53
Collective losses in Vegas this weekend
00:32:54
I think we did the math this group was
00:32:57
accounted for 10 minutes 10 bits of uh
00:33:00
Vegas's Blackjack revenue for the year
00:33:02
so good job everyone good job people
00:33:04
everybody in Vegas is now uh completed
00:33:07
their Q3 quarter targets early so the
00:33:11
problem obviously with mounting debt is
00:33:14
the interest payments on the debt cause
00:33:16
you to take out more debt and there's a
00:33:18
Tipping Point where it becomes
00:33:19
insurmountable
00:33:21
and there are many people sounding the
00:33:23
alarm that we may be entering that point
00:33:25
that in order to fund the interest
00:33:26
obligations on the debt we need to take
00:33:29
out more debt and then there's more
00:33:31
interest payments and therefore there's
00:33:32
more debt and it just keeps getting
00:33:34
bigger and bigger and so this chart I'm
00:33:36
sharing here is actually from the
00:33:38
federal
00:33:39
government's GAO the government
00:33:41
accountability office which acts almost
00:33:43
like an independent accounting and
00:33:45
forecasting body trying to provide some
00:33:47
outlook on the fiscal condition of the
00:33:50
federal government and this is an
00:33:52
analysis I think they put out a few
00:33:54
weeks ago
00:33:55
showing that as of the fiscal year 22
00:33:58
eight percent of the overall federal
00:34:00
budget was going towards interest
00:34:02
spending by fiscal year 25 it'll be 26
00:34:06
and then net interest spending will need
00:34:09
to grow to half of the budget but if you
00:34:11
go to the other sorry why don't you say
00:34:12
that why don't you say the years because
00:34:14
it's important to note what years
00:34:16
they're talking about 2051 2096 is what
00:34:20
they're showing this is a Long window
00:34:21
yeah I get it but let me show you this
00:34:23
chart just pull up the first chart so
00:34:24
this is our federal government's
00:34:26
interest payments per year mm-hmm
00:34:29
and so this is how much the government
00:34:30
pays on interest for the debt by the way
00:34:32
most of the debt is getting refinanced
00:34:34
now at the higher interest rates because
00:34:36
a lot of this debt was sitting in in
00:34:38
zurp Era since 2008.
00:34:41
but as the
00:34:42
debt has to get refinanced and more debt
00:34:45
is taken on to fund the interest payment
00:34:47
obligations the interest payment
00:34:48
actually starts to to amount more
00:34:50
significantly and that's what we've seen
00:34:52
in the last two fiscal years in
00:34:53
particular now when you take this chart
00:34:55
and you overlay how much we spend on
00:34:58
defense so here's defense spending
00:35:01
we are I think as of this month or last
00:35:04
month now spending more
00:35:06
the federal government is spending more
00:35:07
on interest payments on the federal debt
00:35:10
than they are on National Defense
00:35:12
whether we believe we are spending money
00:35:14
on National Defense in a smart way or in
00:35:16
an accountable way or whether these are
00:35:18
good strategic priorities and good
00:35:19
strategic decisions the fact remains
00:35:22
that at some point here our ability to
00:35:24
actually fund the programs that we want
00:35:26
to fund whether their social security
00:35:28
Medicare or defense the the major cost
00:35:31
outlays for the federal government it's
00:35:33
going to get further hindered and
00:35:35
continually more hindered by the fact
00:35:36
that these interest payments are
00:35:37
climbing so significantly and if you go
00:35:39
to the third chart I think it kind of
00:35:41
provides the final point which is Social
00:35:43
Security and we're very quickly seeing
00:35:46
interest payments amount to the point of
00:35:49
or Social Security spending lays and
00:35:51
when that happens obviously as you guys
00:35:53
know everyone talks about that as being
00:35:54
the golden program the right and the
00:35:56
left the Democrats and the Republicans
00:35:57
simply will not touch Social Security
00:36:00
from a policy perspective from a getting
00:36:03
elected perspective but the economic and
00:36:05
arithmetic reality is running up against
00:36:08
them which is that the interest payments
00:36:09
on the debt are starting
00:36:11
to threaten our ability to fund Social
00:36:13
Security and and Medicare there's many
00:36:16
more charts we could pull up to
00:36:17
highlight this the Republicans in
00:36:19
announcing the the debt deal this week
00:36:22
made a lot of proclamations about it
00:36:24
being a win and showed how we were able
00:36:26
to reduce spending by two trillion
00:36:28
dollars I think the the the statement
00:36:30
they made the deal Cuts 2.1 trillion
00:36:32
dollars in spending over the six-year
00:36:34
life of the bill and one and a half
00:36:35
trillion dollars in statutorily mandated
00:36:37
savings over the next two years 2.1
00:36:40
trillion dollars over six years remember
00:36:41
we're talking about a seven million
00:36:44
seven trillion dollar per year budget so
00:36:46
that's 42 trillion dollars over those
00:36:48
six years we're cutting two trillion of
00:36:50
42. so it's a five percent impact to
00:36:53
start it's a start but what leverage do
00:36:56
they have now
00:37:00
that they actually did decide to make
00:37:02
cuts and that feels to me and we did
00:37:04
predict here that they would get this
00:37:05
done it does feel to me like this is
00:37:07
some amount of progress right I mean do
00:37:10
you feel good about it or indifferent
00:37:11
Friedberg yeah I think you guys know I I
00:37:14
think that there's
00:37:16
we have we have to tackle the
00:37:19
the structural problem of Revenue
00:37:21
spending interest rates right those are
00:37:24
like very
00:37:26
um big numbers that are that are
00:37:28
challenging each other chipping away at
00:37:30
the spending doesn't quite get us there
00:37:34
and you know it doesn't seem like
00:37:36
there's a clear path here even you know
00:37:38
the argument that RFK made when he came
00:37:40
on our show RFK Junior made when he came
00:37:42
on our show that cutting military
00:37:43
spending would have an impact I mean you
00:37:45
guys see military spending is already
00:37:47
starting to get
00:37:49
overtaken by the interest payment
00:37:51
spending so does that really move the
00:37:53
needle I think it's going to be an
00:37:54
economic reality that all programs are
00:37:57
going to need to be cut back in order to
00:37:58
fund the debt obligations or
00:38:01
we're going to see massive inflation I
00:38:04
guess my question was do you feel like
00:38:06
this was a good step or a good signal
00:38:09
that maybe
00:38:11
the government is and our
00:38:13
representatives are getting the message
00:38:14
that they need to make some cuts at some
00:38:16
point I don't think that there's any way
00:38:18
to provide
00:38:21
the necessary fiscal security for the
00:38:23
federal government without bipartisan
00:38:27
unitary support around the objective
00:38:30
which is to get to a balanced budget and
00:38:32
to reduce the overall debt and interest
00:38:34
payment obligations and if you can't
00:38:36
start from that point it's this push and
00:38:39
pull over what programs get cut but I
00:38:41
want more money being spent I want to
00:38:42
have a pipeline super enthused by this I
00:38:45
thought it was a positive step chamoth
00:38:47
you have talked about refinancing the
00:38:49
debt putting the 100 Year trillion
00:38:51
dollar coin or whatever we wind up doing
00:38:53
refinancing this on a long Arc 50-year
00:38:56
100 Year Arc
00:38:58
what does this debt ceiling
00:39:01
reconciliation or whatever we're going
00:39:02
to call it
00:39:03
that they came to some sort of agreement
00:39:05
here signaled to you you predicted they
00:39:07
would get through this pretty easily so
00:39:09
yeah
00:39:10
or anything nothing Burger nothing move
00:39:13
on nothing
00:39:15
would you buy a 100 year bond
00:39:18
from the federal government if I was a
00:39:20
foreign government yes what interest
00:39:22
would you need to get paid on that
00:39:24
to take that on
00:39:25
probably one to two percent
00:39:27
one to two percent for a hundred years
00:39:29
yeah so it would be downside protection
00:39:31
you just feel like this is a secure
00:39:32
place to put
00:39:33
some amount of money this is how any any
00:39:36
country with a turbulent currency
00:39:41
would make this decision and you could
00:39:43
actually get close to zero I think that
00:39:46
when we had zerp you probably could have
00:39:47
charged a negative interest rate because
00:39:49
you would have effectively been charging
00:39:51
countries third world developing
00:39:53
countries even First World countries
00:39:55
that just wanted a protective mechanism
00:39:56
against their currency volatility they
00:39:59
would have probably paid you just like
00:40:00
today you can get boj debt
00:40:04
that's negative yielding so it's no
00:40:06
longer negative but it's still probably
00:40:07
in the realm of one one and a half
00:40:10
percent it's nothing if you just do the
00:40:11
math it's nothing and this is why I
00:40:13
don't understand why everybody just gets
00:40:15
their underwear in a bunch here okay
00:40:17
non-gender Underpants put the red chart
00:40:19
up there
00:40:21
it's like nothing it's a nothing it's
00:40:24
nothing to nothing it's a hockey stick
00:40:27
nothing means nothing I think you guys
00:40:29
what you see here is an accelerating
00:40:31
problem yeah cut Revenue the debt is
00:40:33
getting bigger and bigger at the same
00:40:35
time that uh foreign governments and
00:40:38
investors in general don't want to fund
00:40:40
our debt so therefore interest rates
00:40:42
will rise our interest costs will keep
00:40:43
that's not why interest rates are going
00:40:45
up
00:40:46
well if they're going up because the FED
00:40:47
is raising rates because of inflation
00:40:48
but at the same time that's happening
00:40:50
foreign governments are not as
00:40:52
interested in having dollar reserves and
00:40:55
U.S treasuries said who does
00:40:57
demonstrated by what
00:40:59
you look at the foreign reserves of
00:41:02
these countries or these sovereigns they
00:41:04
are much less interested in holding U.S
00:41:05
treasuries foreign with China and all
00:41:08
the brics countries foreign reserves are
00:41:10
up these guys are banking US Dollars
00:41:12
like nobody's business I don't think so
00:41:14
I think it's been going down since 2008.
00:41:16
I'll find you a chart yeah maybe from
00:41:18
2008 I don't know from the great
00:41:20
financial crisis at the absolute depths
00:41:22
but what I'm saying is that in general
00:41:25
the anchor currency for governments and
00:41:27
central banks has been will be and
00:41:30
will likely be in the future the United
00:41:32
States dollar and we get back to the
00:41:35
circular argument which is I don't think
00:41:37
it's possible for politicians to cut
00:41:39
expenses so I am just an advocate for
00:41:42
cutting Revenue because I do think it's
00:41:44
the simplest way to force people because
00:41:47
the next time they go through these
00:41:49
machinations and all this theater around
00:41:51
a debt ceiling they'll just have less
00:41:53
Revenue to play with and it'll just
00:41:55
become a harder and harder and harder
00:41:57
problem meanwhile I do think that you
00:41:59
have to take the ball where it lies and
00:42:01
take these 24 or 30 trillion dollars and
00:42:04
refinance it well out into the future
00:42:06
and make a bet on U.S exceptionalism and
00:42:09
U.S GDP and if you don't want to believe
00:42:10
it don't be here move to some
00:42:12
other country where you think it's so
00:42:14
much better and go do it there what if
00:42:16
the Market's not there what if the
00:42:17
buyers are not there and you're wrong
00:42:19
sure I mean you know what an asteroid
00:42:21
could hit the earth in the next day we
00:42:23
could talk about all kinds of long tail
00:42:25
consequences but there is there you have
00:42:27
to be able to probably weight these
00:42:29
things and then spend your time thinking
00:42:31
about the things that are more
00:42:32
probabilistic and be able to
00:42:34
compartmentalize the anxiety of the less
00:42:36
probabilistic things so I think that
00:42:39
could there be a scenario where there is
00:42:42
no interest sure is there one no because
00:42:44
you see every day the government's in
00:42:46
the market doing auctions and there is a
00:42:48
robust demand for United States
00:42:50
government debt and until there isn't
00:42:52
this argument is specious and all I
00:42:55
would tell you is just keep trying put
00:42:58
out more try a 45 Euro Bond and see what
00:43:01
it feels like try a 50 or you don't have
00:43:03
to do 100 if it makes you too anxious
00:43:04
that's fine let me just ask you at some
00:43:06
point if the market isn't there the
00:43:07
buyers are not there
00:43:09
but you know but let's just go through
00:43:11
the analysis because I know that you
00:43:13
think it's it's a zero chance but if
00:43:15
it's as low probability do you agree
00:43:17
that the severity is high that the
00:43:19
significance of that being the case I
00:43:21
don't again I am not going to give an
00:43:23
iota of breath to a long tail five Sigma
00:43:26
outcome it is a waste of time
00:43:29
okay because it occupies and I'll tell
00:43:31
you why I don't do it it occupies my
00:43:33
mind share which takes away from me
00:43:35
figuring out how to make money and win
00:43:37
on the field today so I have you know I
00:43:41
wake in a 24-hour day okay just to give
00:43:43
you a sense of it I sleep for eight you
00:43:45
know I'm eating for another one or two
00:43:47
all this I have four or five
00:43:50
hours a day of useful thinking time and
00:43:54
I try to think of the belly of the
00:43:57
probable and I try to compartmentalize
00:44:00
these dumb long tail Sigma events
00:44:02
because it distracts me from making
00:44:04
money and winning
00:44:05
I actually try to think about long tail
00:44:07
Sigma events that could make me money
00:44:10
this isn't one of them
00:44:12
so I just don't spend time thinking
00:44:13
about it I mean I could be totally wrong
00:44:15
I could be totally wrong it's worked for
00:44:18
me so far and I'm gonna stick to what
00:44:19
works guys sax has been on Google for
00:44:21
five minutes he's got something for you
00:44:22
tomorrow go ahead he usually stick to
00:44:24
the investing strategy that works for
00:44:25
you I'd like to talk about the status of
00:44:28
U.S treasuries
00:44:30
so if you look here this is total
00:44:32
foreign treasury Holdings as percent of
00:44:35
marketable Treasury Securities so it's
00:44:36
gone down from the mid 50s to the low
00:44:39
30s since 2008-2009 as a percentage
00:44:47
as much as they used to starting with
00:44:49
China they are diversifying into other
00:44:52
currencies and gold
00:44:54
and there are a bunch of good reasons
00:44:55
for that by the way this comes from a
00:44:57
Blog which is really interesting it's a
00:44:59
crypto guy named Arthur Hayes and this
00:45:02
is actually a pretty interesting piece
00:45:04
called exit liquidity rights interesting
00:45:06
pieces on the banking system and
00:45:08
de-dollarization he's got a little bit
00:45:10
of a doomor thesis with respect to the
00:45:12
US dollar you know obviously he's
00:45:13
pro-bitcoin his users are sort of
00:45:16
similar to topologies but anyway I think
00:45:18
one of the points he makes that's really
00:45:19
interesting is that if you're to zoom
00:45:22
out thirty thousand feet and think about
00:45:24
the regime that we had
00:45:26
during let's call it the unipolar moment
00:45:28
where China and the United States were
00:45:32
strong trading partners and we had this
00:45:34
close relationship with them the way the
00:45:36
global economy worked is that China
00:45:39
would sell Goods to the United States
00:45:41
they would have huge trade surpluses and
00:45:44
then they would take those dollars and
00:45:46
they'd use some of them to buy raw
00:45:48
materials like energy that was called
00:45:49
the Petro dollar
00:45:51
and then they would take other dollars
00:45:54
their Surplus and instead of
00:45:55
repatriating at home they would have to
00:45:57
have then converted that money into RMB
00:45:59
and brought it home they didn't do that
00:46:01
that actually would have increased the
00:46:02
value of their currency thereby making
00:46:04
their export less attractive this is why
00:46:06
they're accused of currency manipulation
00:46:08
they took their Surplus dollars and
00:46:10
bought U.S assets mainly U.S treasuries
00:46:13
so we had this trading relationship with
00:46:16
China I think everyone understands the
00:46:18
physical world side of that trading
00:46:19
relationship where you had U.S
00:46:20
manufacturing jobs got export to China
00:46:22
they basically made everything a lot of
00:46:24
cheap Goods came into the U.S they had a
00:46:26
trade surplus what I think people don't
00:46:28
understand is that a huge part of that
00:46:29
trade surplus was used to finance U.S
00:46:33
deficits in debt and so you had this
00:46:35
like cozy relationship between US elites
00:46:39
and U.S politicians and China where they
00:46:41
got to rack up these huge deficits the
00:46:43
government got to spend a lot of money
00:46:45
and China would fund it very cheaply but
00:46:48
now that's all ended that's stopped
00:46:49
because we're basically starting to
00:46:51
decouple from China so China doesn't
00:46:53
want to do its business in dollars if
00:46:55
they don't have to obviously for the
00:46:57
products they sell of the US they'll
00:46:58
take dollars but they're already trying
00:47:01
to do as many transactions as they can
00:47:04
buying oil for example or energy in RMB
00:47:07
I I don't want to dispute this chart
00:47:09
because this chart is true
00:47:11
but it's a small part of how the entire
00:47:13
puzzle works and so this is a Bitcoin
00:47:16
maximalist who Cherry picks a few data
00:47:18
points to try to make a point but if you
00:47:20
look at the IMF data and I put it to you
00:47:22
in the group chat you can't just look at
00:47:24
us treasury Securities you have to look
00:47:25
at actual absolute dollar reserves and
00:47:28
when you look at that over time it
00:47:29
hasn't fluctuated that much and so for
00:47:31
all the dopes that don't understand how
00:47:33
this works it's not just Securities
00:47:35
it's actually also money and the actual
00:47:38
amount of US dollar money hasn't changed
00:47:41
that much gone between 60 and 70s I just
00:47:45
find this argument again one of these
00:47:47
long Sigma arguments that are anxiety
00:47:50
riddled and I just don't want to waste
00:47:52
my time thinking about it because it'll
00:47:53
distract me from winning on the field
00:47:55
today you got to be able to block things
00:47:57
out if you want to be a capital
00:47:58
allocator I agree but an interesting
00:48:00
discussion nonetheless I don't think
00:48:02
these things are just noise I think
00:48:04
you're seeing a trend I mean look how
00:48:06
many headlines there are about the brics
00:48:08
countries getting together and starting
00:48:10
to transact in currencies other than
00:48:12
dollars yeah you know what those are
00:48:14
very cherry-picked as well and you said
00:48:15
before you don't trust the Press so you
00:48:16
trust the Press on these headlines all
00:48:18
of a sudden I don't think that that's
00:48:20
actually I don't think anyone's
00:48:21
disputing the fact that China and Saudi
00:48:24
Arabia and China and Brazil are doing
00:48:26
energy transactions in RMB they think
00:48:29
it's very tiny they're doing all putting
00:48:31
all their money into venture capital in
00:48:32
the west private equity and the rest
00:48:33
real estate in the West
00:48:35
the Middle East
00:48:37
that's where they're that's where
00:48:38
they're focusing their energy there's a
00:48:40
different issue look no one is disputing
00:48:42
the fact that China and the brics
00:48:44
countries more generally are trying to
00:48:46
create a trading block that is not
00:48:48
dependent on the US dollar gradually
00:48:51
that's not saber rattling I think
00:48:53
they're trying to just let the us know
00:48:55
like hey we have other options here and
00:48:57
I think it's China just trying to
00:48:59
it's China on their heels trying to make
00:49:02
deals with others China pursuing their
00:49:04
self-interest which is not to be
00:49:06
dependent on a dollar that's been
00:49:09
weaponized since controlled by the U.S
00:49:10
political you can be sure that Saudi UAE
00:49:12
and the entire voting Block in the
00:49:14
Middle East are shipping their money
00:49:15
West not East I think you have a very
00:49:17
accurate assessment of what China wants
00:49:19
but it doesn't mean it's going to happen
00:49:20
and I think you have to make a bet what
00:49:22
do you think it's going to happen or not
00:49:23
it's not going to happen and I think the
00:49:26
reason and I've said this before is
00:49:27
China is in a demographic time bomb and
00:49:30
that will dominate everything else that
00:49:32
is a country that is imploding and
00:49:34
there's anti-capitalist they're
00:49:36
anti-capitalism no no I'm going to say
00:49:39
that they are capitalists I'm not going
00:49:40
to make these judgments but I'm going to
00:49:41
tell you practically speaking is they
00:49:43
are demographically imploding they do
00:49:45
not have enough people the country will
00:49:47
be halved by the death rate and the lack
00:49:49
of birth rate by
00:49:51
2300 okay so in another 70 odd years
00:49:54
that is a problem that is going away and
00:49:57
that is just mathematical and if you
00:49:59
just again you just have to take a deep
00:50:01
breath look at the data and just
00:50:03
extrapolate and you see this is not a
00:50:06
problem China is not a problem China has
00:50:08
real problems there's no question about
00:50:10
it they've got demographic problems
00:50:11
they've got problems in the banking
00:50:13
system they've got a real estate bubble
00:50:15
State problems there are questions about
00:50:17
whether the leadership now is turning
00:50:19
away from the capitalism that got them
00:50:21
to this point they are so there's no
00:50:23
question that China has problems but you
00:50:26
want to talk about friends there is a
00:50:28
major Trend in the world right now where
00:50:30
again the brics countries Brazil Russia
00:50:33
India China South Africa and you can put
00:50:35
Saudi Arabia in that bucket and a lot of
00:50:38
other countries they are looking to
00:50:40
diversify off of the dollar I'm not
00:50:42
saying that the dollar is going to stop
00:50:44
being the world's Reserve currency
00:50:45
because I agree with you that there's no
00:50:47
ready replacement at hand but they are
00:50:50
trying to do as many transactions as
00:50:52
they can off of the dollar and they do
00:50:55
not want to hold treasuries like they
00:50:57
did 10 or 15 years ago
00:51:01
that's a very loaded statement I don't
00:51:04
think I don't know if that statement's
00:51:05
true what are you talking about this is
00:51:06
like major they tried to do one trade
00:51:09
China and Saudi and China and no Saudis
00:51:12
talked about it and they didn't do it
00:51:14
they talked about it yeah I would like
00:51:15
to see data on that not just a couple of
00:51:17
headlines because I think everybody
00:51:18
wants to nobody describes us what are
00:51:21
you talking about give us the data the
00:51:22
Brazil thing happened but I think it was
00:51:23
a small trade David yeah that's what
00:51:25
yeah that's exactly first you say it
00:51:27
didn't happen and now you're saying no
00:51:28
no I'm saying that Saudi Arabia China
00:51:30
thing did not happen
00:51:32
your statement was they're trying to
00:51:33
talk many transactions as possible off
00:51:35
the dollar I don't think they're trying
00:51:36
to do as many transactions off the
00:51:38
dollar I don't have never seen any
00:51:40
actual
00:51:42
database you don't know I'm just making
00:51:44
up no you're interested
00:51:47
of course they want to get off the
00:51:48
dollar if they can't no no I think
00:51:50
Jason's saying you're right what they
00:51:51
want to do but what they are doing
00:51:53
Chinese is what he's debating is sending
00:51:55
their money West
00:51:57
I don't think they're trying to send at
00:51:58
least I don't think that's hold on a
00:52:00
second you're you're right that Saudi
00:52:02
Arabia is investing in the U.S they're
00:52:04
I'd say highly Diversified that's a
00:52:07
little different than what China is
00:52:09
doing yes we're in agreement China wants
00:52:12
to get people off the U.S dollar China's
00:52:15
in Decline China's got big issues we all
00:52:17
agree on that the Middle East has a lot
00:52:19
of cash I think if they're going to
00:52:20
decide what to do with it they'll
00:52:22
appease China to have a solid
00:52:24
relationship to ship oil there but I
00:52:26
think that's a normal customer now
00:52:28
hearts are in the west that's where
00:52:30
they're gonna there's been a Giants full
00:52:32
realignment haven't you noticed I think
00:52:35
the realignment yeah the Middle East
00:52:37
becoming westernized and being accepted
00:52:39
in the west and moving towards an
00:52:40
investor in the West in technology
00:52:42
that's actually the trend the Chinese
00:52:43
just negotiated or approached law
00:52:45
between Saudi Arabia and Iran did you
00:52:48
notice that that's okay I'm just talking
00:52:52
about where they're putting them these
00:52:53
things are all connected where are they
00:52:54
putting their chips I think what you've
00:52:56
explained and I think we're in agreement
00:52:58
they'll sell their oil to China then
00:53:00
what do they do with the bag they take
00:53:02
that same bag and they want to put it
00:53:03
towards I don't know it's even it's even
00:53:04
worse again the thing is even if you
00:53:07
settle a trade in the Yuan I think you
00:53:09
guys keep forgetting this key thing
00:53:10
which is the yuan is pegged to the US
00:53:12
dollar so it is a proxy dollar so if you
00:53:15
really want to decouple you first have
00:53:18
to let this currency free float they
00:53:20
have no desire to let them do that
00:53:21
especially in a moment where they're
00:53:23
economically imploding internally so
00:53:25
again you go back to the circular
00:53:26
argument where everything goes back to
00:53:28
the dollar so yes they're saber rattling
00:53:30
sacks I acknowledge what you're saying I
00:53:32
think you're totally right that they
00:53:33
would love a free-floating currency the
00:53:35
Chinese would love Chinese and they want
00:53:37
that free-floating currency to not be
00:53:38
pegged to the dollar but right now they
00:53:40
have kept it pegged to the dollar so
00:53:42
even if they Google that and it says not
00:53:44
it says
00:53:45
Google is you on pecked USD and it says
00:53:48
the Chinese yuan is not pegged to the US
00:53:51
dollar was pegged from 94 to 2005 but in
00:53:53
2005 China made its currency of floating
00:53:55
exchange currency it is not a floating
00:53:58
current see yeah and then do you trust
00:54:00
uh yeah it's highly manipulated I agree
00:54:03
with that but I don't think it's pegged
00:54:04
it's not a floating currency it is not a
00:54:06
free-floating currency China controls
00:54:08
the exchange rate between themselves and
00:54:10
the US dollar let's move on
00:54:12
I think we've covered this
00:54:15
it'd be actually one thing that might be
00:54:16
interesting topic of reality you have no
00:54:18
basis which we're declaring that things
00:54:21
like the moves that China is making with
00:54:23
Brazil and Saudi Arabia you're just
00:54:25
declaring that to be fake news nobody's
00:54:27
saying fake news we're saying it's
00:54:28
happening but it's probably minor and
00:54:30
it's probably more describing what's
00:54:31
your basis for believing that because we
00:54:33
have no evidence to prove that it's
00:54:35
occurring we just have a couple of
00:54:36
headlines and some small I mean where is
00:54:39
it I mean all we're seeing is the the
00:54:41
the money in Saudi Arabia is they're
00:54:44
selling oil to China correct they're
00:54:46
doing deals there then they're taking
00:54:48
that money and then they want to invest
00:54:50
it in the west who are you talking about
00:54:51
the other thing to keep in mind is that
00:54:53
the Saudi real is pegged as well to the
00:54:55
US dollar
00:54:56
and that's been there since I think the
00:54:58
mid 80s so China's is a very opaque
00:55:02
manipulated currency Market where they
00:55:03
keep
00:55:05
the dollar Yuan spread quite fixed on
00:55:08
the other side Saudi has kept the same
00:55:10
Peg 3.75 to the dollar since the mid 80s
00:55:13
so again it all just goes back to the US
00:55:15
dollar it's all proxies for the dollar
00:55:16
so there's some symbolic value I suppose
00:55:18
in trading in Yuan
00:55:20
but everything goes back to the dollar
00:55:21
because that's what it's measured in so
00:55:23
I said this is not symbolic what's
00:55:25
happening is deeply geopolitical you've
00:55:27
got a couple of things going on one is
00:55:29
that the US is now instituted sanctions
00:55:32
on over 40 countries moreover the whole
00:55:35
world saw that in the case of Russia we
00:55:38
froze their foreign reserves and
00:55:40
basically seized the property of their
00:55:42
oligarchs so if you're in oligarch in
00:55:45
the Middle East do you think you want to
00:55:46
keep all of your money on all of your
00:55:47
reserves in dollars you understand that
00:55:49
the dollar has been weaponized and it's
00:55:51
a political instrument in the United
00:55:52
States that's just a fact so you're
00:55:54
going to look to diversify you're going
00:55:56
to look to put your money in Gold you're
00:55:57
going to look to put your money in other
00:55:58
currencies is there like I said a
00:56:00
currency a hand that's ready to be a
00:56:02
replacement for the US dollar no and it
00:56:04
can't be the Yuan they don't have an
00:56:06
open Capital
00:56:08
where would you diversify if you were
00:56:09
the CIO where would you diversify well
00:56:12
what I would do if I were the Secretary
00:56:15
of the Treasury of China is I would say
00:56:18
that okay for the exports of the us
00:56:21
we're going to keep getting dollars and
00:56:22
we'll do something with those dollars
00:56:23
but for everybody else we're going to
00:56:25
try and do as many transactions as an r
00:56:27
b as possible but what about the sellers
00:56:29
of oil to China what would they do
00:56:31
things
00:56:33
are exactly the trades that we're
00:56:35
talking about you tell them to hold REM
00:56:36
and be over U.S and Euro China is
00:56:39
seeking to pay Saudi Arabia
00:56:42
you actually don't understand it
00:56:47
let me ask you a question would you as
00:56:49
CIO of Saudi or UAE would you want to
00:56:51
keep REM and B would you want to keep
00:56:54
Euros or US Dollars where would you want
00:56:56
to keep your money and the question is
00:56:58
if they sell that would they want to
00:57:00
keep it in remedy I don't think they
00:57:01
would want to keep the ones honestly to
00:57:03
answer your question I wouldn't put it
00:57:04
in gold
00:57:07
here's what China is proposing okay
00:57:10
they're saying to Saudi Arabia and
00:57:12
Brazil we're going to pay you for your
00:57:14
oil in RMB and then you are going to
00:57:17
take the r b and you can buy our
00:57:20
products yeah because again we make
00:57:22
everything we're the factory of the
00:57:23
world and if you still have a surplus
00:57:26
after that you can settle that Surplus
00:57:28
in gold
00:57:30
because Beijing has a very liquid you
00:57:32
know Gold Exchange Market they're giving
00:57:34
them Amazon that's what they're
00:57:35
proposing here's your gift cards yeah
00:57:37
spending gift cards two data points on
00:57:40
the sacks that I just read it's in this
00:57:42
Barons article that I included Nick you
00:57:43
may just want to link to it in the show
00:57:45
notes which I thought was pretty good
00:57:46
Swift which is sort of like the
00:57:48
international payments backbone the
00:57:50
share of
00:57:51
Yuan transactions briefly Rose above
00:57:53
three percent
00:57:55
in 2022 that was the peak and it's now
00:57:57
off 26 percent
00:57:59
down to about 2.2 percent so actually
00:58:01
the share of Yuan transactions has
00:58:03
actually been shrinking in the last year
00:58:05
and then the second is that what this
00:58:07
article states which is interesting is
00:58:08
that all the belt and Road loans that
00:58:10
China gave into all these developing
00:58:12
countries in Africa the Africans were
00:58:13
like we don't want this you want and so
00:58:15
they just dollar swapped and so now the
00:58:17
Bri loans are all serviced in US dollars
00:58:19
as well so all the trillions of dollars
00:58:21
China spent
00:58:22
I'm just saying that again I'm not
00:58:24
judging your own alternative Swift
00:58:26
weaponize swift as well yeah but Swift
00:58:28
is still 98 of the of the world of how
00:58:30
it works all I'm saying is I just like
00:58:32
to look keep things simple
00:58:34
I think the US dollar is here for a
00:58:36
while I think that debts suck I would
00:58:38
love to have no deficits but I also
00:58:41
think these numbers are roughly like
00:58:43
we're playing plus or minus on the
00:58:44
margin two to three hundred basis points
00:58:46
we talked about that last week
00:58:47
and so I want to keep my brain open to
00:58:51
the simple obvious things like
00:58:53
you know selling
00:58:57
for youth you're like yeah it's a doubt
00:58:59
I'm a big cpg guy now yeah that's where
00:59:02
tremont's focused once you've pulled
00:59:03
Freeburg into this debate I have one
00:59:04
more time A Doctor Doom go ahead doctor
00:59:07
so I think I'm Dr Doom I'm just Dr
00:59:09
reality or at least I try to be I don't
00:59:11
know like there was a deal you know
00:59:12
China had a big visit with Brazil in
00:59:15
March we talked about it briefly I
00:59:17
shared a couple of these articles that
00:59:19
covered the transactions they signed 10
00:59:21
billion dollars of trade agreements and
00:59:23
Cooperative agreements all of which were
00:59:25
meant to settle in you on
00:59:27
Brazil's kind of made the statement that
00:59:28
they're going to start to settle in
00:59:29
local currency and
00:59:32
you know they're doing this multilateral
00:59:34
trade program globally with Partners
00:59:38
where they're going to trade and
00:59:39
transact in in local currencies they're
00:59:41
not set to the dollar they're not fixed
00:59:42
to the dollar and I think that's just
00:59:43
part of a general movement I don't think
00:59:45
it's about hey we got to get off the
00:59:47
dollar as soon as possible but I think
00:59:48
it's about we could diversify and there
00:59:50
are other stable economies around the
00:59:52
world they might be having you know
00:59:53
demographic issues or various economic
00:59:55
issues but gosh man don't we all Europe
00:59:58
China the US everyone's got debt
01:00:01
problems demographic problems over
01:00:02
leverage problems growth problems
01:00:05
and fundamentally I don't think that
01:00:07
there's as safe a Haven as there has
01:00:08
been historically and as a result I
01:00:10
think a lot of these governments and a
01:00:12
lot of the Business Leaders in these
01:00:13
countries are very much open to doing
01:00:15
transactions in multiple currencies and
01:00:17
that's the beginning of the end it's the
01:00:20
beginning of a set of transactions that
01:00:21
isn't about hey we're all getting uh
01:00:23
against the dollar it's over let's crush
01:00:25
the dollar it's like we're just going to
01:00:27
do trades in other currencies no big
01:00:28
deal beginning of the end
01:00:32
all right
01:00:35
it's the end of the dominance right it's
01:00:37
the end of you everything about the end
01:00:39
of the dominance and China imploded
01:00:40
during that same time period so I
01:00:42
forgive me I still believe in American
01:00:44
expression from American exceptionalism
01:00:46
there's another article from Bloomberg
01:00:48
brick this is from uh April 24th all of
01:00:51
a sudden this guy loves the Main Street
01:00:52
Rick straws membership bids from 1986
01:00:54
listen jaycal I'm fine if you want to
01:00:57
say this is fake news go for it
01:01:00
believe it's fake news
01:01:04
no I need information about the world
01:01:07
when they write an article about me
01:01:08
that's completely made up I'm going to
01:01:10
call it fake News why are you treating
01:01:12
like every press article is like the
01:01:14
same that makes no sense by the way it
01:01:16
does make sense for the bricks to expand
01:01:17
right sax because it's like if NATO was
01:01:20
purely an economic organization that's
01:01:22
probably what brics evolves into over
01:01:24
time and it makes a ton of sense for
01:01:25
them to do it they're creating a
01:01:26
competing China's setting up an
01:01:28
alternative to the IMF that's right
01:01:29
they've got this alternative to the IMF
01:01:31
that they're setting up that's not
01:01:33
dollar denominated and they've got Seven
01:01:35
Nations in this thing now it's a it's
01:01:37
you know and by the way Jason when I say
01:01:39
the beginning of the end I don't mean
01:01:40
the end of the world or the end of the
01:01:41
U.S the US will continue to be the
01:01:43
Innovation Hub of the world the U.S will
01:01:45
continue to have freedom and civil
01:01:47
rights that no that no other country can
01:01:48
parallel the US is an incredible place
01:01:50
to live better than anywhere else on
01:01:52
Earth but the economic status of the US
01:01:55
given how we have spent money and how we
01:01:57
continue to operate our federal
01:01:58
government with this extraordinary
01:02:00
deficit and death spiral problem means
01:02:02
that other people have to be protective
01:02:04
of their currencies and their assets in
01:02:06
a way that's thoughtful it doesn't
01:02:07
necessarily mean it's all over and
01:02:09
everything but the dominance you said
01:02:10
beginning us has had economically you
01:02:12
can already see this in all the trade
01:02:14
barriers and tariffs that are going up
01:02:16
the decoupling that's going on look the
01:02:19
United States set up a system of global
01:02:21
free trade basically in 1945 and we had
01:02:25
a bipolar world with you know the
01:02:27
Soviets and in America but the Soviets
01:02:31
basically opted out because they were
01:02:32
Communists they had their own system but
01:02:34
it was
01:02:36
then we had the unipolar world so
01:02:39
basically for you know over half a
01:02:42
century we had this completely open
01:02:43
system where there were no trade blocks
01:02:45
in the world
01:02:46
now we are seeing the rise of trade
01:02:49
blocks with multi-polarity
01:02:51
yes the US is pursuing a contrary policy
01:02:54
because on the one hand hold on here's
01:02:56
the contradiction on the one hand we run
01:02:58
these massive deficits and debts so we
01:03:00
are a debtor Nation who needs to make
01:03:04
its debt attractive
01:03:06
to to debt holders or our interest rates
01:03:09
are going to keep going up okay so
01:03:11
that's on the one hand on the other hand
01:03:13
we are doing things like weaponizing the
01:03:15
dollar and weaponizing Swift and
01:03:17
imposing sanctions and engaging in
01:03:22
geopolitical fights that are highly
01:03:25
antagonistic to the Nations that RR
01:03:28
would be holders of our debt
01:03:31
so one of those two things has got to
01:03:33
give
01:03:35
either
01:03:37
we reduce our debt and our deficits and
01:03:39
then need remember we're not this is not
01:03:41
a stable situation we continue to issue
01:03:44
what is it somewhere between one and two
01:03:47
trillion a year two trillion government
01:03:48
debt
01:03:50
so we have to constantly find more and
01:03:52
more money out in the world to support
01:03:54
our debt at the same time that we're
01:03:56
weaponizing the dollar in the financial
01:03:57
system so that these sources of global
01:04:00
Capital don't want to participate and I
01:04:02
agree with sex this is why I think the
01:04:04
disappointment to me
01:04:05
is that there isn't bipartisan
01:04:07
recognition of this being as severe as a
01:04:10
war it is the sort of thing that the
01:04:12
government that both parties need to get
01:04:14
behind and say let's figure out a path
01:04:16
to solving this problem this is the
01:04:17
objective we've got to get our fiscal
01:04:19
Affairs in order and then all the other
01:04:21
stuff the social stuff the policy stuff
01:04:23
we can fight about we can argue about
01:04:25
later but we have to put some gas in the
01:04:27
tank we have to be able to drive where
01:04:28
we want to go and we can't drive right
01:04:30
now here's what I'll say to you
01:04:32
Friedberg
01:04:33
since you said the beginning of the end
01:04:36
now maybe it's a poor choice of words
01:04:38
it's not the end
01:04:41
of it again by the end yeah but but
01:04:44
don't miscarriage
01:04:45
of dollar dominance and global trade
01:04:48
okay I disagree with you I think dollar
01:04:49
dominance will continue for some time
01:04:51
Jacob are you disputing that the world
01:04:52
is becoming more multipolar do you think
01:04:54
we're still living in unit polarity no
01:04:57
and nor do we need to live in
01:04:59
unipolarity for America to still be the
01:05:01
Champions we still are winning at a pace
01:05:03
that nobody else is
01:05:05
space winning one energy cars AI we're
01:05:09
probably gonna win chips and we're gonna
01:05:11
probably win Material Science and
01:05:14
batteries and we're obviously going to
01:05:15
win biotech we're winning in every one
01:05:17
of these categories we're the clear
01:05:19
winner the only thing we're not the
01:05:21
clear winner in is factories and
01:05:22
mass-producing schlocky stuff that's
01:05:24
sold on Amazon China's completely
01:05:26
imploded and the Middle East is taking
01:05:28
their last 20 or 30 years of capital and
01:05:31
they're investing it in the West in
01:05:34
space energy cars AI chips basic
01:05:37
materials batteries all the stuff that's
01:05:38
happening here on our Shores we are in
01:05:41
the most winning position we've probably
01:05:42
ever been in as a country we took a bad
01:05:44
beat we spent too much money we got a
01:05:46
dysfunctional government we got culture
01:05:47
wars we got a lot of bad stuff
01:05:49
distracting us but the truth is when you
01:05:51
look at brass tacks when you look at
01:05:52
Innovation we're winning on almost every
01:05:55
Dimension we're just a little caught up
01:05:57
in the fog of culture wars and you know
01:06:01
thinking that we're going to be dominant
01:06:02
and perfect in terms of our budget we do
01:06:05
have to fix our budget we all agree on
01:06:06
that but we are winning and China is
01:06:10
currently stalled out and it's because
01:06:12
of Freedom it's because we support
01:06:14
entrepreneurs because of the basic human
01:06:16
freedoms we have
01:06:18
you two guys are Dr Doom this is so
01:06:20
stupid I'm I'm hopping off I'm done with
01:06:22
this just strike my out of this
01:06:24
episode whatever you want is there
01:06:26
anything else you want to talk about
01:06:27
today because I'm done this is gonna be
01:06:28
done I'd love want to talk about it in
01:06:30
video but I don't know if you guys I I'm
01:06:31
sick of being characterized as Dr Doom J
01:06:33
Cal it's stupid
01:06:35
we want to have a real conversation
01:06:37
about having a great conversation
01:06:39
matters instead of your screen about
01:06:42
what I said I'm not actually
01:06:43
extreme I'm not I'm trying to have like
01:06:45
an actual disciplined conversation about
01:06:48
where things are going it's not black
01:06:49
and white it's not about oh my God the
01:06:51
us is going to win everyone's gonna lose
01:06:52
it's not a win-lose situation we cannot
01:06:55
afford to continue to spend the way
01:06:56
we're spending with our federal
01:06:57
government that's it I agree with that
01:06:59
we have to I think we're still winning
01:07:00
on all these other dimensions so why are
01:07:01
we winning that's not the conversation
01:07:03
why is the federal government is
01:07:05
different from U.S Innovation there's a
01:07:06
difference the federal government these
01:07:08
are the Tutors or voters elect to tax
01:07:11
and spend and voters elect people to
01:07:14
create a system that can legally go in
01:07:16
and take assets and spend assets and
01:07:18
borrow money and we've done it in an
01:07:20
extent now that is becoming almost a
01:07:22
runaway train it is a problem we saw the
01:07:25
negative red chart that sax had you pull
01:07:27
up several times that has nothing to do
01:07:29
with U.S dominance and
01:07:31
electronics and chips and biotech and
01:07:34
all this other sort of stuff we have a
01:07:36
problem with how we spend money at the
01:07:37
federal level I agree with that
01:07:40
believe that the dominance that we have
01:07:43
in entrepreneurship in every one of
01:07:44
these categories is what will pull us
01:07:46
out of this the free enterprise system
01:07:48
is a wonderful system that produces a
01:07:50
lot of good prosperity for America okay
01:07:52
that's great
01:07:54
I agree with that and it remains to be
01:07:56
seen if China can sustain its remarkable
01:08:00
economic growth that it's had over the
01:08:02
last few decades so that remains to be
01:08:04
seen however the United States is
01:08:06
behaving like a late stage Empire and
01:08:09
that is separate from the system that
01:08:11
got us here
01:08:13
we have unsustainable fiscal deficits we
01:08:16
spend way too much money that we don't
01:08:18
have we have a uncontrolled Southern
01:08:20
border our cities are in Decline we've
01:08:23
got hundreds of thousands of people
01:08:24
living on the streets have you seen it
01:08:27
we look like a third world country
01:08:29
yes three or four times three or four
01:08:31
cities that's we are we're all we're
01:08:33
meddling in countries all over the world
01:08:34
engaging in wars or proxy wars we are
01:08:37
behaving like a late stage Empire so
01:08:39
jaycal it's true that the United States
01:08:41
has a wonderful system and that's what
01:08:43
got us here to it got us to unipolarity
01:08:46
where we're the world's only superpower
01:08:48
but now we're in a world in which other
01:08:50
countries are rising to it's more
01:08:52
multi-polar agreed and whether we
01:08:55
continue our dominance will depend on
01:08:58
whether we make the right decisions
01:08:59
right now and right now we are not
01:09:01
making the right decisions adding two
01:09:02
trillion to the debt in peace time a
01:09:05
year makes no sense yeah you're a little
01:09:08
ran it's it's like Wiley Coyote going
01:09:11
off the cliff and pretending like if he
01:09:13
just doesn't look down there's nothing
01:09:14
to worry about
01:09:16
I have said from the beginning we need
01:09:17
to get spending under control
01:09:19
but I am also incredibly enthusiastic
01:09:21
about how we're performing in Innovation
01:09:23
and capitalism right now it is off the
01:09:25
charts how well this country is doing on
01:09:27
those Dimensions tomorrow if you have
01:09:28
any thoughts while we wrap up this thing
01:09:31
no I think we ended up conflating a
01:09:33
bunch of issues into one I'll just say
01:09:36
what I've said before which is that the
01:09:38
United States is kind of the simplest
01:09:40
safest bet and that these decisions are
01:09:42
made on a relative basis
01:09:45
China
01:09:47
unfortunately for them have has a huge
01:09:49
demographic problem that will
01:09:52
diminish them economically and you're
01:09:54
already starting to see it but it's
01:09:56
going to get really exacerbated in the
01:09:57
next 10 or 15 years that's just the
01:09:59
mathematical reality for a country that
01:10:01
has literally zero immigration and no
01:10:03
solution
01:10:05
Europe is not in a very great situation
01:10:08
and the only place that's really firing
01:10:10
in all cylinders is India but it has a
01:10:12
long way to go to build the
01:10:13
infrastructure that can really scale and
01:10:15
make it as predictable as United States
01:10:18
could it do it I think so but it's going
01:10:19
to take a long time that you know 50 60
01:10:22
100 Years of investment
01:10:24
so I don't know I just kind of like try
01:10:26
to simplify for myself I think the US
01:10:28
will be fine I think the dollar will be
01:10:30
fine
01:10:31
I don't think it's right to spend this
01:10:33
much but I think that politicians are
01:10:34
incapable of cutting expenses and so I
01:10:37
would like to cut their revenues that's
01:10:39
it
01:10:43
it's a great discussion pre-burger I
01:10:45
don't think you uh respect that I don't
01:10:46
think you understand what the audience
01:10:47
actually wants to hear this is actually
01:10:49
the core of the of the debate that we
01:10:52
just had well just do it feedback asked
01:10:53
you which is just to play his clip in
01:10:55
his words and then I have it right here
01:10:57
I think that the Saudi China trade if
01:10:59
this happens and oil is sold in one is
01:11:02
the beginning of I think the end of the
01:11:04
assumption that the US dollar is a
01:11:06
global Reserve
01:11:07
that's all
01:11:08
that's what you said
01:11:10
that was your prediction
01:11:12
that you said in the beginning of the
01:11:14
end you said it twice now so if you
01:11:16
don't believe it's the beginning of the
01:11:17
end of the US dollar as a global Reserve
01:11:19
yes you believe that if the US dollar
01:11:20
will not be the global Reserve you said
01:11:23
it twice
01:11:24
yeah and I disagree I think that we'll
01:11:26
be will we Remain the global reserve for
01:11:28
our lifetime that's all
01:11:31
it's a fundamental difference let's move
01:11:33
on yes I'm reticent to bring up the
01:11:35
cultural Wars but these uh have become
01:11:37
prominent so maybe we could have a meta
01:11:39
discussion about these
01:11:41
there are three things going on one we
01:11:44
touched on the book Banning I'm using
01:11:46
air quotes there
01:11:48
and there's been a lot of feedback
01:11:50
that's come in since then just to follow
01:11:52
up briefly on it
01:11:54
books are not exactly being banned it's
01:11:57
a much more granular and nuanced issue
01:12:00
there was a bill 1467 that happened uh
01:12:03
that Ron DeSantis did sign this said
01:12:07
that parents reasonably should get to
01:12:09
see what's being put into classrooms and
01:12:12
as
01:12:13
you might suspect this is being done at
01:12:16
a very local level when you put all that
01:12:18
control at the local level you will have
01:12:20
different constituents banned books that
01:12:24
maybe shouldn't be some of them are
01:12:26
obvious ones that were too
01:12:28
graphic that I think most parents would
01:12:30
agree shouldn't be in a school library
01:12:32
other ones were horror books or young
01:12:35
adult books you can look at all this
01:12:37
stuff just um
01:12:39
search for pen banned books report pen
01:12:42
America
01:12:43
and if you there are instances of books
01:12:46
that shouldn't be banned being banned in
01:12:48
instances of books that we'd all agree
01:12:49
on but it is not exactly book Banning
01:12:51
it's letting each of the school
01:12:54
districts make their own decisions and
01:12:55
they're not going to make perfect
01:12:56
decisions when you put them on the edges
01:12:58
so just to make that super clear I think
01:13:00
you're right to focus on the the
01:13:01
terminology here because
01:13:04
this is a question of what is put in the
01:13:07
school library that's it so that's not a
01:13:10
ban right a band would be if you
01:13:12
couldn't purchase the book for yourself
01:13:14
for your kids any parent can buy any
01:13:16
book they want in Florida we do have an
01:13:18
issue I think with uh the curriculum
01:13:22
where really important classic books are
01:13:24
being removed from the curriculum for
01:13:26
political reasons mainly in California
01:13:28
books like to Kill a Mockingbird or a
01:13:31
Huck fair that was weird they're being
01:13:32
removed because they're being accused of
01:13:34
being racist even though the whole point
01:13:36
of those books is to I think call it out
01:13:39
call it out and teach kids about racism
01:13:41
so there's a lot of stupid things
01:13:43
happening from the left in terms of
01:13:46
removing books from the curriculum which
01:13:47
I think is a much bigger deal than
01:13:49
removing books from a school library
01:13:52
there's also things happening with like
01:13:54
you know Ian Fleming's James Bond books
01:13:57
being Rewritten like posthumously
01:13:59
because two seconds accuses sexism
01:14:02
or Roald Dahl's books are being
01:14:05
posthumously edited
01:14:07
so like books are literally being
01:14:09
Rewritten in a way that their authors
01:14:10
never intended that is positively
01:14:12
orwellian that really is that's right
01:14:16
that's really wrong now on this on this
01:14:19
DeSantis thing I mean look this is this
01:14:22
is getting to the level now of being a
01:14:24
hoax one of the stories going around is
01:14:26
that there was this book of poetry this
01:14:29
totally innocuous book of poetry that
01:14:30
was being banned in Florida and I wanted
01:14:33
to say about the poems yeah yeah so I
01:14:35
wanted to find out the truth of it well
01:14:37
as it turns out like you said jaycal
01:14:39
this is a Miami-Dade School District
01:14:42
a decision was made this is not by
01:14:44
DeSantis this is made at the level of
01:14:45
individual schools okay which are voted
01:14:48
on and their parents on these school
01:14:49
boards so it's going to just follow the
01:14:51
demographics whatever that local
01:14:52
community is right so basically what
01:14:54
happened is this this book of poetry was
01:14:56
literally moved from the elementary
01:14:57
school library to the Middle School
01:14:59
library that's what happened yeah but
01:15:01
all of a sudden this was spun on social
01:15:03
media and by the mainstream media as if
01:15:07
DeSantis had banned this book of poetry
01:15:09
to the point where Miami-Dade School
01:15:11
District had to put out a tweet
01:15:13
correcting this so I never banned or
01:15:15
removed it was just moved from one
01:15:17
library to another well that's really I
01:15:19
think this is a super interesting point
01:15:20
David where you and I are in agreement
01:15:22
you and I are both uh for freedom of
01:15:24
speech and we're big Advocates of that
01:15:25
and then there are decisions and you
01:15:29
could reasonably make this decision hey
01:15:30
let the parents decide great when you
01:15:33
let the parents decide you have to take
01:15:35
into account that these school boards
01:15:37
could be hijacked by different groups of
01:15:39
people or they could be very small
01:15:40
monocultures of you know little towns or
01:15:43
cities here's the list by the way if
01:15:45
anybody wants to look at this you could
01:15:46
actually look at the very granular list
01:15:48
pen America keeps an index of all these
01:15:50
they put the the thing in the chat here
01:15:51
and you'll see things in left right
01:15:54
everybody in between some places are
01:15:57
banning all the lgbtq books some are
01:15:59
Banning the critical race books or books
01:16:01
by people of color other ones are
01:16:03
Banning you know the James Bond novels
01:16:06
Etc so it's it's a free-for-all of
01:16:08
parents executing their rights at a very
01:16:10
local level
01:16:12
and you know I guess if you want parents
01:16:14
to have a say in their schools it's
01:16:16
going to be slightly imperfect and
01:16:18
variable
01:16:19
but it's not like a censorship going on
01:16:22
but there is censorship going on I guess
01:16:24
in some ways the political question is
01:16:26
do you allow
01:16:28
government bureaucrats to dictate to
01:16:31
parents what their kids are going to see
01:16:33
or have access to
01:16:34
and I don't think that's viable I mean
01:16:37
look parents could take their kids out
01:16:40
of the school and homeschool them if
01:16:41
they wanted yes so at the end of that
01:16:43
day so they have that right so why would
01:16:45
you deny parents the right to determine
01:16:48
what's in the school library
01:16:50
and it does seem like all of this goes
01:16:52
back by the way some of these books that
01:16:54
have been removed are actually really
01:16:56
questionable yeah Lord of the Flies will
01:16:58
probably get removed because they don't
01:16:59
like somebody being labeled fat piggy
01:17:02
piggy oh
01:17:05
no no I'm saying right like there are
01:17:07
some great books that were written in an
01:17:09
age
01:17:11
where you know you just say things in a
01:17:13
certain way that aren't meant to be
01:17:15
offensive but these books are very
01:17:16
powerful and I don't know about you guys
01:17:18
but I had a bunch of books that I read
01:17:19
when I was younger that had a huge
01:17:22
impact on me and then I don't want those
01:17:24
books getting removed from the
01:17:25
curriculum you're right Lord of the
01:17:26
Flies
01:17:28
those are all important books that I
01:17:30
read as part of the curriculum but all
01:17:32
we're talking about it I think is even
01:17:34
this very minor issue of what's in the
01:17:36
library obviously the parents should get
01:17:37
to decide and some of the things that
01:17:39
have been removed from the library are
01:17:40
pretty out there like for example there
01:17:43
was one book that was educating kids on
01:17:46
like how to get a grinder date
01:17:49
which they're not even supposed to be
01:17:51
able to do right like grinders for 18
01:17:52
and up there are other topics that uh
01:17:55
like suicide and harm and other ones
01:17:58
when do you introduce that to a child is
01:18:00
that something that's third grade or you
01:18:02
know a suicide discussion when should
01:18:03
that reasonably occur this is a crazy
01:18:05
question but I'll ask it to you guys I
01:18:07
would rather Lord of the Flies be
01:18:09
removed from a library then edited
01:18:12
because then at least there's a
01:18:13
different place where you can get the
01:18:14
original book oh for sure editing a book
01:18:18
is so insane it's so mind control yeah
01:18:21
it's really bad that idea is very very
01:18:24
bad because you're
01:18:25
reading something thinking that
01:18:27
this is what the author intended and all
01:18:30
of a sudden it's manipulated by some
01:18:32
random false expert under some guys that
01:18:35
you had no decision making in that's
01:18:37
really bad what's really I think
01:18:39
important of this discussion is what's
01:18:42
how the Press frame something how
01:18:44
politicians frame them and then how
01:18:45
they're actually executed on the ground
01:18:47
can be very different so this has become
01:18:49
a raw shock test for what caused you
01:18:52
back and when you actually look at just
01:18:54
the list you'll see people in California
01:18:56
people in Colorado Banning quote-unquote
01:18:59
Banning or just not including certain
01:19:00
books in libraries it's parents having
01:19:03
age-old debates about when do you
01:19:04
introduce certain topics to your kids
01:19:06
that's your job as a parent
01:19:08
what happens in the library is going to
01:19:10
be variable all right Nvidia is going
01:19:12
for vertical integration they unveiled
01:19:14
their GPU CPU Superchip called Grace
01:19:16
Hopper after the Navy Admiral obviously
01:19:18
Nvidia Grace gpus is 72 arm newer
01:19:21
version V2 CPU cores whatever that means
01:19:23
ecpu can deliver up to 370 score on a
01:19:26
spec crate 2017 in base whatever that
01:19:30
means uh I'm sorry I'm not familiar with
01:19:33
all the benchmarks
01:19:35
is the peak of humor on the show go
01:19:38
ahead listen we're talking about Pentium
01:19:39
chips I could have kept up here but I
01:19:41
haven't kept up with it since the 90s
01:19:42
we're talking about the Intel Inside
01:19:44
Pentium chips yes I could I did keep up
01:19:47
with chip stuff
01:19:49
yeah yeah no I I mean yeah when we got
01:19:52
past gigabit I stopped I think what's
01:19:54
really interesting here is
01:19:56
this is a really important moment where
01:19:58
like that design that Grace Hopper
01:20:00
design which is basically
01:20:02
a massive system on chip it's an entire
01:20:04
rig it's a GPU and CPU in memory and
01:20:07
interconnects this is like them going
01:20:09
for the jugular
01:20:10
this is what's crazy in A Moment Like
01:20:12
This like that is basically them trying
01:20:15
to create an absolute Monopoly because
01:20:17
if you have these rigs
01:20:19
and these rigs are the most capable for
01:20:21
Learning and you have their SDK Cuda
01:20:24
which is becoming the de facto software
01:20:26
layer now that you use to write to their
01:20:28
h100s or Grace Hopper when it's
01:20:30
available and the a100s that could
01:20:33
create a level of lock-in that I think
01:20:35
people should be thinking about so if
01:20:37
you're the hyperscalers like Amazon and
01:20:39
Google and Microsoft
01:20:40
what is your reaction to this if you're
01:20:43
Facebook what is your reaction to this
01:20:45
and I think it's really important
01:20:47
because if these guys continue to
01:20:49
innovate at this scale you're not going
01:20:51
to have any alternatives and it comes it
01:20:53
goes back to like what Intel looked like
01:20:55
back in the day which is an absolute
01:20:57
straight up Monopoly except the
01:20:59
difference is that even when you wrote
01:21:01
something to Intel CPUs you could
01:21:04
actually run it on an AMD processor and
01:21:06
it would work with no changes
01:21:09
but that's not necessarily the same so
01:21:12
if you go from an a100 to something else
01:21:15
an fpga or some other silicon
01:21:17
you have to translate the model and so
01:21:20
it's very important to understand that
01:21:21
there's no extensibility here so like if
01:21:23
Nvidia continues to drive this quickly
01:21:25
and and continues to execute like this
01:21:29
it's a one and done one company Monopoly
01:21:32
in AI at the hardware layer and I think
01:21:34
that that people are probably thinking
01:21:36
about how to blunt that competitive
01:21:38
outcome
01:21:40
but that's what I took away from that
01:21:42
from that announcement from them which
01:21:44
is like they are ready to go for the
01:21:46
juggler here in what looks like the most
01:21:47
important Market
01:21:49
that's emerging like what do you think
01:21:51
about the valuation trading at 200 times
01:21:54
or 50 times
01:21:55
the simple thing about price to equity
01:21:58
ratios is if you take the price equity
01:21:59
ratio and you invert it that's your
01:22:02
implied to earnings price earnings price
01:22:04
to earnings sorry and you invert it
01:22:05
that's your yield right and so
01:22:08
Nvidia is yielding at these prices I
01:22:12
think it's somewhere like two to two and
01:22:14
a half percent Which is less than and
01:22:16
it's almost half of a typical two-year
01:22:19
Bond
01:22:20
and so when you have a yield that that's
01:22:22
low you have to see it just grow
01:22:24
absolutely massively
01:22:26
but there's this principle in capitalism
01:22:28
which is in order to grow like that you
01:22:31
have you're generating so much profit
01:22:33
that competitors look at it and say hold
01:22:35
on you don't deserve that much profit
01:22:37
I'm going to take some of that you're a
01:22:38
profit's my opportunity your margins my
01:22:40
opportunity I think the your margin is
01:22:42
my opportunity is exactly what happens
01:22:44
so I think what I'm waiting for
01:22:46
Friedberg is like in the next two
01:22:47
quarters if AMD
01:22:49
Facebook Google Microsoft and Amazon
01:22:52
don't announce
01:22:54
something substantive
01:22:56
there's a very good chance that Nvidia
01:22:58
runs away with this
01:22:59
and I think that that's very problematic
01:23:02
but in that case
01:23:03
that price is cheap
01:23:05
my bet though it's it's a different
01:23:08
version of your bet but we get to the
01:23:09
same outcome is that I don't think that
01:23:11
that's going to happen because it's just
01:23:12
too important and so I think that
01:23:14
everybody other than Nvidia wants vendor
01:23:18
diversity right you don't want to get
01:23:19
locked into one person one set of
01:23:22
Hardware or One Clap you know one SDK
01:23:25
you don't want that nobody wants that
01:23:27
except Nvidia and Nvidia shareholders
01:23:30
so my bet is in the next two quarters
01:23:32
you start to see some real action so
01:23:33
that
01:23:34
folks start to have to balance their
01:23:36
forecasts where it's not just a hundred
01:23:39
percent Nvidia but it's Nvidia plus plus
01:23:40
and
01:23:43
that's sort of what I would bet
01:23:45
because it just seems like logical and
01:23:47
right because I otherwise it would it
01:23:49
would be pretty derelict of these
01:23:51
hyperscalers to just throw their hands
01:23:53
in the air and just give the whole
01:23:54
Market to them and it would be derelict
01:23:56
of AMD the other thing that's happening
01:23:57
is and and you know AMD is AMD is a
01:24:00
great memory solution but they really
01:24:02
don't have a deterministic AI chip and I
01:24:04
think that Lisa Sue needs to get needs
01:24:06
to act decisively here and build
01:24:08
something announce something buy
01:24:10
something but she needs to be really
01:24:12
aggressive here
01:24:13
if you look at the language models a lot
01:24:15
of them
01:24:16
are taking less and less CPU GPU to
01:24:20
actually build them so this has been
01:24:22
like a bit of a race or a competition on
01:24:25
hugging face I showed the leaderboard on
01:24:27
another episode maybe two episodes ago
01:24:29
but I've been talking to some of the
01:24:30
people who are doing these language
01:24:31
models chamoth and they said there's
01:24:32
massive inefficiency and so yeah and by
01:24:35
the way the other thing that Friedberg
01:24:37
mentions jaycal is also happening which
01:24:38
is like the Freebird you talked about
01:24:40
this the atomization of these models is
01:24:42
happening I think even faster than when
01:24:45
you first brought that up yeah so what
01:24:47
took two or three million dollars last
01:24:49
year is now taking two hundred thousand
01:24:50
dollars just through software
01:24:51
improvements and code improvements crazy
01:24:53
and now they're thinking a number the
01:24:57
other thing people are coming to is
01:24:58
because of so much what's the term
01:25:00
hallucinations that people are using
01:25:01
because of the hallucinations people are
01:25:03
making narrower models that are deeper
01:25:05
in legal or just you know stack Overflow
01:25:08
just core or just a vertical Inquirer
01:25:10
they take less GPU but they get better
01:25:12
results because they've constrained the
01:25:14
data set and that's resulting in you
01:25:17
know better outcomes so I think this
01:25:19
could also be where maybe people don't
01:25:21
need as much GPU or CPU at the same time
01:25:23
so many people are going after it so
01:25:25
that could flip
01:25:26
where the demand could actually decrease
01:25:29
because of software efficiencies or
01:25:30
hitting some Benchmark that's reasonable
01:25:32
enough what do you think
01:25:34
Friedberg look I think it's performance
01:25:36
improves
01:25:37
as cost declines like any economic model
01:25:40
there's a pretty non-linear relationship
01:25:42
with demand so we'll find new ways to
01:25:46
apply this technology I think the
01:25:48
demand's only going to go non-linear
01:25:52
another thing that's happening is people
01:25:53
are starting to build like Mosaic ml
01:25:56
they're building Cloud independent
01:25:58
models so you can take the same model
01:26:00
build it on your own proprietary
01:26:02
personal cloud not educate chat cpt4 not
01:26:05
educate Bard but do it with your own
01:26:07
model and
01:26:09
um then you can move it from
01:26:10
introduction and fine-tuning seems to
01:26:13
like
01:26:14
get to the point that we can run these
01:26:16
things on small machines
01:26:19
cheaply quickly
01:26:21
and um it just it'll change the it'll
01:26:24
change the applications you're saying
01:26:26
run inference yeah not run training run
01:26:29
inference that's right oh no this is not
01:26:32
good Biden just had a big fall on stage
01:26:35
at the U.S Air Force Academy graduation
01:26:37
oh no I think he'll be okay but whoa
01:26:41
it's not like he fell off the stage
01:26:44
oh it doesn't doesn't look good but it
01:26:46
could have broke something well I hope
01:26:47
he's okay I hope he's okay yeah I mean
01:26:50
we just had this whole talk about it
01:26:51
yeah I mean it's just again I think like
01:26:52
physical like these kinds of physical
01:26:54
things are are normal and I think people
01:26:56
need to be much more empathetic about
01:26:58
that kind of stuff I mean he was riding
01:26:59
a bike over the summer last year I
01:27:01
remember
01:27:02
and you look great yeah I mean FDR was
01:27:04
in a wheelchair so I don't care about
01:27:07
that all I care about is mental acuity
01:27:09
yeah me too he's okay by the way I I
01:27:12
want him to be well enough to run
01:27:14
because I'm scared of some of the other
01:27:16
Democratic candidates they might put up
01:27:18
say more
01:27:19
like I don't want to get a president of
01:27:21
Newsome or president Harris I mean I
01:27:25
don't think Biden is very good but I
01:27:26
think he's better than Harris or Newsom
01:27:28
Biden drops out who's the lead candidate
01:27:30
in your mind RFK
01:27:33
really wow I would prefer RFK to Biden
01:27:36
but I think what will happen if buying
01:27:38
drops out is we'll get a flood of
01:27:40
establishment Democrat candidates in the
01:27:42
race news maybe JB pritzker Harris for
01:27:45
sure there's a lot of differences
01:27:47
between the left and the right but the
01:27:48
one similarity is that there's a large
01:27:50
amount of Voters in both of those blocks
01:27:52
who don't fundamentally like these
01:27:55
establishment candidates hmm and I think
01:27:58
that that sentiment is exactly the same
01:27:59
and so you know you can have a pro-trump
01:28:01
wave on the right just like you could
01:28:03
have a pro RFK wave on the left and they
01:28:06
are solidified by the same idea which is
01:28:08
I think you're going to see more and
01:28:10
more Outsiders have a chance through the
01:28:12
nomination process to get in
01:28:15
I think the military party will stop it
01:28:16
I mean they shut down Bernie Sanders
01:28:18
remember that it was Sanders against uh
01:28:21
Hillary Clinton and they they shipped
01:28:24
him they rigged the primary against them
01:28:27
yeah am I allowed to use that word
01:28:29
oh they just labeled our they just
01:28:32
labeled the episode
01:28:33
[Music]
01:28:35
no but look I mean the the establishment
01:28:37
has in the Democratic party has a huge
01:28:40
influence over the outcome because they
01:28:42
control the super delegates right
01:28:43
they'll never wouldn't do some
01:28:45
supercharge the Republican base I mean
01:28:48
being like a coastal Elite and what's
01:28:51
happened with San Francisco and La I
01:28:53
think that just drives out the Trump
01:28:54
voters in a massive way that I said like
01:28:56
over a year ago I thought that the 2024
01:28:59
would be a Newsome DeSantis race I still
01:29:02
think there's like a 10 20 chance of
01:29:04
that
01:29:05
wow that would be wild
01:29:07
be wild today 10.
01:29:10
what about Joe manchin what's the story
01:29:12
there anybody have any insights on Joe
01:29:13
manchin
01:29:14
we had a phenomenal dinner at my house
01:29:16
last week he is so Charming okay so what
01:29:20
do you know this what are you talking
01:29:21
about I don't know if you publicly
01:29:22
disclose it or not well it's already
01:29:24
happened we had a you know we had a fact
01:29:26
we had a fabulous dinner and he met a
01:29:29
lot of people here and
01:29:30
he's he's amazing
01:29:32
did tax come to that and Heather and
01:29:34
Heather's amazing Heather's amazing too
01:29:37
his daughter who she ran I think was
01:29:39
Milan pharmaceutical incredible
01:29:41
executive
01:29:43
Joe manchin would jump in yeah you think
01:29:45
Tremont imagines fabulous if Biden
01:29:47
wasn't in Joe manchin would jump in you
01:29:48
think I don't know I don't want to
01:29:51
speculate any on anything like that but
01:29:52
I think he's I think he's an amazing
01:29:54
American Patriot
01:29:56
is that you're a guy Freeburg would you
01:29:58
go Joe manchin because he wants to
01:29:59
control spending
01:30:02
I don't know I don't know
01:30:03
all right I'll tell you one of the
01:30:05
reasons why I like RFK Jr is that I mean
01:30:08
there's so many issues that he's
01:30:09
deviating from democratic party
01:30:11
orthodoxies in favor of free speech and
01:30:13
again censorship he's in favor of civil
01:30:16
liberties and against this like massive
01:30:18
surveillance state that we've created
01:30:19
and on foreign policy he wants to end
01:30:21
all the crazy Wars and I would say that
01:30:24
of all the candidates I've heard he
01:30:26
understands the situation in Ukraine the
01:30:28
most deeply
01:30:29
now both Trump and DeSantis have called
01:30:32
for a ceasefire and that's good and I
01:30:35
think RFK would work towards the
01:30:37
ceasefire too but RFK Jr Goes deeper and
01:30:41
explains how the whole situation Ukraine
01:30:43
came about and so he understands this
01:30:45
very deeply all right folks there you
01:30:48
have it another episode of The Island
01:30:49
podcast for the dictator
01:30:52
the architect David sacks and
01:30:55
it was a king maker oh sorry I like
01:30:58
architect okay kingmaker sure King maker
01:31:01
fake news you like architecture
01:31:05
the whole thing was just like made up no
01:31:07
but I know but as a nickname whether you
01:31:09
prefer architecture what do you prefer
01:31:11
or King what did the article say King
01:31:14
maker the article's a king maker I said
01:31:15
architect I think architect is
01:31:17
bengali-ish the article is about a call
01:31:19
that never happened fake news with a
01:31:21
person you don't know or the person I
01:31:22
don't know
01:31:24
right okay that aside what what nickname
01:31:28
would you like us to use going forward
01:31:29
King maker that the whole article was
01:31:32
made up yes putting that aside architect
01:31:35
can I go with King maker I like King
01:31:36
maker I like architecture
01:31:39
Mr secretary please tell us which one
01:31:42
yeah Secretary of State look I'm I'm a
01:31:44
I'm a mid-level donor mid at best you're
01:31:48
mad
01:31:50
subreddits are going crazy right now
01:31:52
and then influencer I made it best
01:31:56
however
01:32:00
there it's true that there are very few
01:32:02
podcasters who probably donate anything
01:32:03
you could be yeah Henry Kissinger and
01:32:06
Madeleine Albright highest ranking
01:32:08
farmborn citizens to lead yes I think
01:32:10
that you would be Secretary General
01:32:12
Secretary of State I'm just going to put
01:32:13
that so you could be Secretary of State
01:32:15
cabinet I think you would be Secretary
01:32:17
of State because you have the
01:32:19
intellectual Firepower to actually not
01:32:20
get bamboozled on this stuff you'd hold
01:32:22
your ground you know who actually I
01:32:24
think was pretty good on on foreign
01:32:25
policy he doesn't get any credit was was
01:32:27
Jared Kushner
01:32:29
I was listening to an interview with him
01:32:31
and this happened like eight months ago
01:32:34
and he was describing the whole
01:32:35
situation in Ukraine and he says very
01:32:38
clearly that he and Trump understood
01:32:41
that bringing Ukrainian to Nato was a
01:32:43
red line for the Russians and they never
01:32:45
went there so they armed Ukraine but
01:32:48
they were very careful to not make any
01:32:50
statements about Ukraine coming into
01:32:52
NATO he understood that that was a
01:32:54
serious provocation I'll post the
01:32:56
interview in the chat
01:32:58
but it was with uh I think Gerard Baker
01:33:00
for the Wall Street Journal so Jared
01:33:03
understood the situation better than
01:33:04
most of these
01:33:05
you know foreign policy Elite
01:33:08
establishment types who don't understand
01:33:10
how their actions could be perceived as
01:33:13
provocative by the other side well he uh
01:33:16
he's sure secured the bag after getting
01:33:18
out of that gig two billion then you got
01:33:20
the Abraham records done and now
01:33:23
binds this flush down the toilet because
01:33:25
he's alienated the Saudis so much
01:33:27
they've gone to the the Chinese I mean
01:33:29
the fact that there's flights between
01:33:30
Israel and the Middle East Nations now
01:33:32
and they seem to have a common
01:33:36
it's pretty awesome I don't think you
01:33:38
can understand how much Biden has
01:33:39
alienated the Saudis
01:33:42
do you want to shake buy one shake the
01:33:44
man's hand what was the point of that I
01:33:46
I I'm not in favor of buying oh yeah
01:33:48
what was that like a fist bumper
01:33:51
pre-negotiated fist bump yeah it's a
01:33:53
little how insulting is that the one
01:33:55
thing I loved about Trump was he was
01:33:56
willing to meet with anybody my idea
01:33:58
foreign policy is meet with as many
01:34:00
people as possible as often as possible
01:34:02
and not go to war I would meet with Kim
01:34:05
Jong-un Putin Xi Jinping on the regular
01:34:08
every country we should be with because
01:34:10
that's how progress gets made not
01:34:12
meeting with him is yeah I mean it's not
01:34:15
a reward
01:34:17
I think there's a part of this military
01:34:20
industrial complex that believes a
01:34:22
meeting with the president is a reward
01:34:24
or an endorsement of the worst things
01:34:26
anybody's ever done it's not it's a
01:34:29
meeting to try to make the world safer
01:34:31
or to try to build common ground and so
01:34:33
that is not me or Jim cram or uh or
01:34:36
however you want to try to frame it it's
01:34:39
intelligent and I'm for intelligent
01:34:41
foreign policy which is talking to
01:34:42
people
01:34:43
let's talk about some people who said
01:34:45
yes to come to all in Summit let's just
01:34:47
do a quick speaker around time I got to
01:34:49
go to I gotta go to lunch I love you
01:34:50
guys I love you besties yeah this
01:34:52
I'm done with this yes oh three
01:34:54
brick I love you
01:34:56
see you tonight Lord
01:35:02
Rain Man
01:35:03
[Music]
01:35:07
we open source it to the fans and
01:35:09
they've just gone crazy
01:35:10
[Music]
01:35:15
fine quack
01:35:19
besties
01:35:20
[Music]
01:35:29
we should all just get a room and just
01:35:32
have one big huge orgy because they're
01:35:33
always useless it's like this like
01:35:35
sexual tension that we just need to
01:35:36
release somehow
01:35:37
[Music]
01:35:43
we need to get Mercies
01:35:48
[Music]
01:35:53
I'm going all in
