00:00:00
I found out about a freeberg purchase
00:00:02
that it's just you were there Jamal you
00:00:05
heard what he bought what did I buy
00:00:07
pickles the quino what what was it no no
00:00:10
sax you missed this because you're you
00:00:12
are a Sunbird now and the rest of us are
00:00:14
snowbirds over the holidays but the
00:00:16
three of us have been hanging out skiing
00:00:19
having dinner for a couple of weeks and
00:00:21
we had a little wives dinner and one of
00:00:23
the wives was complaining about oh the
00:00:25
suits R suits oh my God so free
00:00:30
do you have pictures of the radiation
00:00:32
suits I don't have pictures of the
00:00:33
radiation Su I'm trying to find what
00:00:35
radiation suits I thought you were going
00:00:37
to talk about like Bion suits or
00:00:39
something radiation suits you know how
00:00:42
you went into full scale panic mode and
00:00:43
you during Co and you had your whole
00:00:45
outfit your your hazmat suit fredberg
00:00:50
just because he's panicked about nuclear
00:00:54
proliferation has bought suits for his
00:00:58
entire family
00:01:00
thousands of dollars of radiation suits
00:01:03
and nuclear fallout and he bought one
00:01:06
for his dog dogs dogs dogs dogs sorry
00:01:10
dogs from Monty and Daisy I should send
00:01:13
you guys the photo of the dog a bunker I
00:01:15
mean I've got it all taken care of you
00:01:16
need a bunker first right I think that's
00:01:18
underway as well how do you get to your
00:01:20
bunker freeberg with with the pilots
00:01:22
that you'll be asking to leave their
00:01:25
families or will you be protecting them
00:01:27
with the guns that were stolen from your
00:01:29
house
00:01:31
at least you'll have the thousands of
00:01:33
pickles you've
00:01:34
made and the pounds of I didn't know
00:01:37
freedberg was a prepper did you know
00:01:39
this sax saak has a little prepper saak
00:01:42
freeberg was howling because he was so
00:01:43
mad he made like thousands and thousands
00:01:46
of pickles and nobody would eat them
00:01:48
including himself they were so terrible
00:01:51
you literally bought a radiation pod for
00:01:53
your dogs yeah so they that's their air
00:01:56
filter on the right so that they don't
00:01:58
breathe in the nuclear fallout collap
00:02:01
I kind of like the the prepping thank
00:02:02
you sir yeah it's good you guys don't
00:02:04
understand there's a reason Evolution
00:02:06
happens in moments of what we call
00:02:08
punctuated equilibrium there's a massive
00:02:10
event and certain you know things
00:02:13
survive and then that becomes the
00:02:14
proliferant species going forward this
00:02:16
is the moment be ready so you're saying
00:02:18
paranoid rich white guys are going to
00:02:20
survive the nuclear Holocaust is what
00:02:22
you're saying paranoid rich white Tech
00:02:25
guys are going to make it to the other
00:02:27
side got it how exciting ex what a great
00:02:30
future what a
00:02:32
future like we'd rather die that touches
00:02:35
myogenous Jones just the idea of it when
00:02:38
saaks and freeberg are the only two
00:02:39
reproducing males left delicious can you
00:02:42
imagine the the Jean Pool it's like
00:02:45
literally this is like some dystopian
00:02:46
science fiction this is like a Black
00:02:48
Mirror episode you'll have the pastiest
00:02:50
Preppers in the
00:02:51
world pasty Preppers to inherit the
00:02:57
Earth let your winners ride
00:03:01
Rainman
00:03:04
David and instead we open sources to the
00:03:07
fans and they've just gone
00:03:08
[Music]
00:03:12
crazy welcome back to the program
00:03:14
everybody it is the new year but it's
00:03:17
the same Squad your four besties are
00:03:19
here chth poop Patia he is now not just
00:03:23
the dictator he is Chairman dictator
00:03:25
calling in from the slopes with his
00:03:27
beautiful Bert sweater that's a great
00:03:30
sweater that's a major turtleneck going
00:03:32
on there and we have David Friedberg
00:03:34
also uh looks like he's on the slopes
00:03:37
and he is wearing his ohal his ohal not
00:03:40
Mahalo ohal hat he is branding here on
00:03:43
the Allin podcast sneaking in a little
00:03:45
branding for his new startup that he is
00:03:47
the CEO of David Sachs is with us of
00:03:51
course and he cleaned up he cleaned up a
00:03:53
little bit here the hair was getting out
00:03:54
of control we had a lot of commentary on
00:03:56
the hair apparently you cleaned up shop
00:03:58
I pivoted from the the Jefferson to the
00:04:00
gecko all right so everybody loves when
00:04:03
we do our predictions and so we're going
00:04:05
to start off 2024 big year for us we got
00:04:08
a lot going on here at Allin and we're
00:04:09
going to just do some predictions here
00:04:11
so let's get started we're going to kick
00:04:13
it off with Sachs doing his prediction
00:04:17
for the biggest political winner in 2024
00:04:20
saak who do you have what's your
00:04:21
prediction for who's going to be the
00:04:23
biggest winner in 2024 we're bracing
00:04:26
yeah well you're going to love this J
00:04:27
Cal but my my prediction for biggest
00:04:29
political winner in 2024 is Vladimir
00:04:33
Putin
00:04:35
2023 last year was the year that Putin
00:04:37
turned it all around he stabilized his
00:04:39
economy after the West attempt to
00:04:41
sanction him to his knees tried to
00:04:44
collapse his economy we issued basically
00:04:47
an arrest warrant from the international
00:04:49
criminal
00:04:50
court he has gained the upperhand
00:04:53
militarily in Ukraine I think that 2024
00:04:56
will be a year of him consolidating
00:04:59
gains in
00:05:00
Ukraine potentially making new gains I
00:05:03
think that the the stalemate narrative
00:05:07
that our media has propagated about
00:05:09
Ukraine will be exposed as a lie I think
00:05:12
the Russians are in fact winning that
00:05:13
War and what you're seeing is that his
00:05:17
successful stance against the West in
00:05:20
Ukraine has only made him more
00:05:22
influential throughout the global South
00:05:24
and in the brics
00:05:25
countries countries that oppose American
00:05:29
dominance and dollar hemony see him as
00:05:32
the man with a plan as as a bit of a
00:05:34
Conquering Hero and I think as project
00:05:38
Ukraine falls apart in
00:05:40
2024 it's only going to reinforce that
00:05:43
sense that he's the big winner sex did
00:05:45
you see that Argentina said they're not
00:05:48
going to join bricks and that some have
00:05:50
said that was a bit of a blowback on the
00:05:54
bricks effort to end dollar hegemony and
00:05:56
do you think it's really impactful or is
00:05:58
it just a one-off I think it's a one-off
00:06:00
I mean melee won in a big surprise there
00:06:04
because the country's economy has been
00:06:06
such a basket case and he is very
00:06:09
pro-american pro-israel Pro West and so
00:06:12
he has distance Argentina from from
00:06:16
bricks but I think that's a little bit
00:06:17
of a oneof the larger issue is
00:06:20
that the whole Global South Now is
00:06:23
really resisting the collective West in
00:06:27
a number of different ways and so our
00:06:29
influence and dominance is slowly
00:06:32
declining across the world and there's
00:06:34
many examples of that so we can get into
00:06:36
it throughout the show just to be clear
00:06:38
with the audience you're not rooting for
00:06:40
Putin here you're just predicting he's
00:06:42
the biggest winner I'm not rooting for
00:06:44
it to happen I I've got other answers
00:06:47
here that I think are
00:06:49
negatives as well I wish we had made a
00:06:52
peace deal and avoided this whole
00:06:54
Ukraine war I think that was a gigantic
00:06:55
Mistake by the West so yeah you've been
00:06:57
clear about that yeah we have put Putin
00:07:00
in this position to be the Victor
00:07:03
because we plunged into a war without
00:07:06
thinking it through and the truth is we
00:07:08
can't give Ukraine enough Aid to have
00:07:11
them actually win this war so we've
00:07:14
contributed massively to Putin being
00:07:16
this Victor and you know it was Fiona
00:07:19
Hill who is a Russia hawk in the foreign
00:07:22
policy establishment who pointed out in
00:07:24
a speech I think over the past year that
00:07:28
the global South is is using this
00:07:31
Ukraine war as a proxy to rebel against
00:07:34
the West so in the same way that we're
00:07:35
using Ukraine as a proxy against Russia
00:07:38
she said the global South was using
00:07:39
Russia as a proxy against the West as a
00:07:43
way to basically
00:07:44
Dethrone American Hemy all over the
00:07:46
world and that that's a very negative
00:07:48
Trend so if you had Ukraine and Putin in
00:07:52
under seven minutes for this episode if
00:07:53
you bet the under you win freeberg who's
00:07:56
your prediction for the biggest
00:07:57
political winner in politics for 20 24
00:08:00
I'm going to go with independent third
00:08:01
party in the US we saw the stats last
00:08:04
week I think we reviewed them with a
00:08:05
poll that showed that 60 plus% of people
00:08:08
are claiming interest in a third party
00:08:09
or an independent effort outside of the
00:08:12
traditional Dam Republican
00:08:15
split and if you look at in 1992 Ross
00:08:19
perau got 18 to 19% of the general
00:08:23
election vote RFK Jr is obviously
00:08:27
running on an independent ticket this
00:08:28
year we'll see if he even get on the
00:08:30
ballot in a bunch of States but I think
00:08:32
that whether it's him or the interest in
00:08:35
developing a third party uh in the US
00:08:38
that there may be a big winner this year
00:08:40
that challenges the the traditional
00:08:43
two-party split in this country all
00:08:45
right and chamath who do you got for
00:08:46
your biggest political winner in
00:08:50
independent centrists I think this
00:08:52
election starts the breakdown of the
00:08:54
two- party system same same look at that
00:08:56
RFK this week actually just got added to
00:08:58
the Utah ballot I think that this could
00:09:00
be the most meaningful longlasting
00:09:02
change that we see in American politics
00:09:04
is this is from from the RFK candidacy I
00:09:07
mean how many people do you guys know
00:09:09
that were Republicans that don't want to
00:09:10
be Republicans anymore or were Democrats
00:09:12
and don't want to be Democrats anymore
00:09:13
it's really like most so many people I
00:09:15
know more of the latter I know more of
00:09:17
the latter actually than I do yeah
00:09:19
that's true too yeah that's what I would
00:09:20
say I think I think Republicans are
00:09:22
still firmly established I think people
00:09:24
are embarrassed to be a Democrat right
00:09:25
now interestingly I also picked the
00:09:28
Darkhorse president IAL candidate who
00:09:30
will beat treasonous and corrupt AKA
00:09:32
Trump and Biden I think we're going to
00:09:34
actually see some Darkhorse candidate
00:09:35
maybe beat these two in the rematch that
00:09:39
nobody wanted wow that's crazy three of
00:09:41
the four of us picked the same thing no
00:09:43
coordination beforehand yes and this is
00:09:45
done blind folks and and Nick has my
00:09:48
notes here so he can he can uh vouch for
00:09:50
me here and just to go back and look at
00:09:53
2023 what we predicted Sachs you said
00:09:56
Asian-American College applicants were
00:09:57
going to be your biggest winner in
00:09:59
politics that actually turned out to be
00:10:01
pretty preent right yeah I mean I was
00:10:03
betting on court cases overruling
00:10:06
affirmative action and that's exactly
00:10:07
what happened is that Supreme Court
00:10:10
ruled against affirmative action in
00:10:11
college admissions saying that it
00:10:14
unlawfully discriminated against
00:10:15
asian-americans so yeah that worked out
00:10:17
exactly right so that's a great
00:10:19
prediction I think chamat you had
00:10:21
perhaps the best prediction of even the
00:10:23
entire show last year your spread trade
00:10:26
long Nikki and short Dan santis that
00:10:28
paid off and Spades well done there
00:10:31
freeberg you had NBS and Saudi have the
00:10:33
most important year in their modern era
00:10:36
that actually pretty pressent as well
00:10:37
they seem to be yeah I mean if you look
00:10:39
at let me just post this this was this
00:10:40
journal article that came out in March
00:10:42
if you guys remember this when Saudi was
00:10:44
considering accepting Yan instead of
00:10:45
dollars for sales of oil to China and
00:10:49
then in August the us ramped up pressure
00:10:52
on Saudi Arabia to sell oil in dollars
00:10:54
not Yuan let me just pull this up for
00:10:56
you guys which was obviously follow on
00:10:59
story where the US tried to counter the
00:11:02
actions which is continuing obviously
00:11:04
today where there's a back and forth and
00:11:07
Saudi as I mentioned last week I think
00:11:08
is in this really interesting Central
00:11:10
pivot position between all of these
00:11:13
competing major nuclear powers and
00:11:16
fighting for influence and this is a big
00:11:19
story and it will continue to be this
00:11:20
year and modernizing as society that
00:11:23
photo of the fist bump I mean what a
00:11:25
mistake that was where Biden just
00:11:27
gratuitously in insulted MBS compare
00:11:30
that to the photo of Putin visiting the
00:11:33
Middle East and meeting shaking hands
00:11:35
with MBS which happened just a few weeks
00:11:37
ago and compare the welcome that Putin
00:11:41
got in Saudi Arabia and I think UAE to
00:11:45
the welcome that Biden got it's just two
00:11:47
completely different levels it was a
00:11:48
very warm embrace on both sides I think
00:11:51
it was UAE they literally had a parade
00:11:54
for him where they had uh the colors of
00:11:56
the Russian flag up
00:11:57
everywhere
00:12:00
so you know we've tried to
00:12:02
portray Putin as this Global Pariah
00:12:04
we've tried to turn him into this Global
00:12:06
Pariah but it's not working
00:12:09
because of the way that he is defeating
00:12:12
the collective West in Ukraine I think
00:12:16
that it's given him enormous cache and
00:12:19
influence in the global South and much
00:12:21
of the developing World which would like
00:12:23
to stand up to American dominance or or
00:12:26
at least is tired of American dominance
00:12:28
and if double click on that
00:12:30
article the second one I sent on
00:12:33
Washington trying to negotiate with the
00:12:34
Saudis you know quote behind the scenes
00:12:36
but obviously this all comes out they're
00:12:38
asking assurances that Riyad will use
00:12:41
dollars not Yuan to price oil sales
00:12:43
assurances that Saudi won't allow China
00:12:45
to build military bases in the kingdom
00:12:47
and limitations on Saudi Arabia using
00:12:49
technology developed by China and in
00:12:52
exchange the US will protect Saudi will
00:12:55
provide military protection and will
00:12:58
help them develop a nuclear program
00:13:00
which is an incredible demand so
00:13:03
obviously this is an unresolved point
00:13:04
but this becomes a pivot moment for
00:13:06
Saudi Arabia they may become a nuclear
00:13:08
power use this as leverage as the US
00:13:10
continues to try and keep dollar hemony
00:13:13
alive and my prediction last year was
00:13:15
that Trump would get indicted win the
00:13:17
nomination and then agree not to run in
00:13:20
order to get a pardon or something in
00:13:21
that vein and looks like I'm going to
00:13:24
get two of those three correct we'll see
00:13:25
on the pardon he has been indicted
00:13:28
obviously and he is looks like a lock to
00:13:31
win the nomination but we'll see I don't
00:13:34
it seems like Nikki hel's doing okay
00:13:37
you'll see biggest political loser of
00:13:39
2024 is what we're going to do next
00:13:41
jamat last year you picked D santis I
00:13:43
picked D santis that was a pretty easy
00:13:45
one saaka picked California also a
00:13:47
pretty easy one we know that
00:13:49
California's gotten demolished because
00:13:51
specifically California went from having
00:13:52
a76 billion Surplus in 2022 to a $68
00:13:56
billion deficit now yeah Bonkers yeah I
00:14:00
don't think any of those were as obvious
00:14:02
as they were in January of last year I
00:14:03
think Dan santis was leading he was
00:14:05
collecting a lot of big checks and
00:14:07
California hadn't imploded I and
00:14:09
everybody knew that they were be under
00:14:11
pressure but nobody expected to be I
00:14:12
think this Swift so all right I don't
00:14:15
think those were obvious I think those
00:14:16
were actually pretty decent picks okay
00:14:18
that's a good argument and then freberg
00:14:19
you picked debt issues for emerging
00:14:21
Nations debt markets start to unravel
00:14:23
IMF steps in I'm not sure I I have
00:14:26
enough information to check in on that
00:14:28
one yet any thoughts freeberg before we
00:14:30
go on to our predictions for biggest
00:14:31
loser I think we had any big unwinding
00:14:33
like I had expected but these problems
00:14:36
are bubbling and persist you know
00:14:39
obviously Argentina took a big step with
00:14:40
the election there that one was one of
00:14:42
the countries that was most at risk of
00:14:45
having a big event last year but shth
00:14:47
who's your prediction for biggest
00:14:49
political loser in 2024 the
00:14:52
copes I think on a dollar basis they are
00:14:54
the
00:14:55
largest spender in Republican politics
00:14:58
they have been and they have been the
00:15:00
most consistent negative indicator of
00:15:02
value and so if you just want to fade a
00:15:05
trade I think you can pretty easily just
00:15:08
find where
00:15:09
the
00:15:10
those old school Republicans are putting
00:15:13
their money and just kind of short it
00:15:14
and right now as much as I was sort of
00:15:17
long the Haley spread trade in 2023 I
00:15:21
would probably now short that trade in
00:15:23
24 H okay Switching it up mostly because
00:15:26
of the cokes freeberg who do you got
00:15:28
well saxel like this one but I think
00:15:30
Ukraine might
00:15:32
be the Biggest Loser this year as
00:15:35
attention shifts to the Brewing conflict
00:15:38
in the Middle
00:15:39
East during an election year like the US
00:15:42
is facing continuing this funding of
00:15:44
this Ukraine Russia conflict with US
00:15:46
dollars is becoming a more
00:15:48
unpopular issue for people to support
00:15:52
and so I think because of all these
00:15:54
these competing interests and the
00:15:55
political pressure the US will probably
00:15:58
not have the uh resources to commit to
00:16:01
Ukraine I think Ukraine's shot at being
00:16:03
in NATO is going to fade away and
00:16:06
unfortunately it seems like the country
00:16:07
may be left behind by the end of this
00:16:09
year saxs what do you got well I totally
00:16:11
agree with that and I would just add
00:16:12
demographic decline even collapse uh
00:16:15
they've lost something like half a
00:16:17
million soldiers in terms of casualties
00:16:21
they also something like 10 million
00:16:23
people have have fled the country I read
00:16:25
recently that there's only about 20
00:16:27
million people left in the country and
00:16:28
half of them are pensioners so it's not
00:16:30
even clear that the working population
00:16:32
of the country is going to be able to
00:16:33
support the pensioners and of course the
00:16:35
war isn't close to being over yet so
00:16:37
there's going to be even more
00:16:38
destruction that happens so I I agree
00:16:41
with that that
00:16:42
pick I up leveled my answer a little bit
00:16:45
here to have the collective West as the
00:16:49
biggest political loser and Ukraine is a
00:16:52
big part of that obviously this huge bet
00:16:54
that the collective West made in terms
00:16:56
of pressuring and challenging Putin
00:16:59
in Ukraine has completely crapped out
00:17:01
but I would also go much further than
00:17:03
that you look at what's happening in
00:17:05
Israel in Gaza right now and I don't
00:17:07
think that Israel's invasion of Gaza is
00:17:10
going well at all and again just
00:17:13
stepping back these answers don't
00:17:15
reflect my desire for what I want to
00:17:19
have happened it just reflects my honest
00:17:20
assessment of who the the losers are
00:17:23
going to be and I just think
00:17:25
that
00:17:26
Israel's invasion
00:17:29
is is not going well it does not look
00:17:31
like they're going to be able to
00:17:32
militarily achieve their objective of
00:17:35
destroying Hamas Admiral Kirby who's the
00:17:38
Pentagon spokesperson even said that the
00:17:39
other day which was a pretty amazing
00:17:41
admission at the same time Israel is
00:17:44
creating a huge humanitarian crisis in
00:17:46
Gaza something like over
00:17:49
20,000 Palestinians have already been
00:17:51
killed over 50,000 wounded something
00:17:54
like 1.8 million of them have been
00:17:56
displaced and it doesn't look like it's
00:17:58
going let up anytime soon as a result of
00:18:00
this Israel is facing I think a huge
00:18:04
amount of condemnation internationally
00:18:07
it is becoming a bit of a global Pariah
00:18:10
so that is not going well for America
00:18:13
and the west and then you're going to
00:18:15
have a whole bunch of Elections this
00:18:18
year both in the US and in Europe I
00:18:21
think that there's going to be
00:18:23
tremendous
00:18:25
disruption things are really not going
00:18:28
well Europe right now um large parts of
00:18:30
Europe are in recession as a result of
00:18:33
losing cheap Russian gas this
00:18:36
particularly true of
00:18:37
Germany and I think there's going to be
00:18:39
some big shakeups in the European
00:18:41
Parliament and I wouldn't be surprised
00:18:43
if there was similar shakeups in in the
00:18:46
US election as well all right and I
00:18:48
picked for my biggest political loser I
00:18:49
was going to go with the American voter
00:18:51
but I'm hoping that the American voters
00:18:52
make better choices and maybe we see
00:18:55
some alternative candidates as we said
00:18:56
in the last one and I went with
00:18:57
Netanyahu here I think and again this is
00:19:00
just my assessment this isn't what I
00:19:02
want to occur in the world obviously but
00:19:04
every major Israeli pole is just
00:19:07
suggesting that they want him out and
00:19:08
they put the odds Vox puts the odds of
00:19:11
his offer at
00:19:12
75% and obviously yeah Gaza is not going
00:19:15
well and it feels like there is a
00:19:17
massive shift in terms of what was early
00:19:21
support and obvious support for the
00:19:23
terror attacks that occurred on 107 and
00:19:25
any reasonable person would be
00:19:26
supportive of that to hey maybe what's
00:19:30
happening in Gaza is not helping the
00:19:33
situation and needs to be resolved and
00:19:34
maybe a different approach has to occur
00:19:36
and so I think Netanyahu is going to be
00:19:38
the biggest loser in
00:19:40
2024 all right let's go on to the
00:19:42
biggest business winner of 2024 back to
00:19:46
business last year last year in 2023 I
00:19:50
predicted laid off Tech workers starting
00:19:53
startup companies would be the big
00:19:55
winner chamat you predicted relativity
00:19:57
space 3D printing rocket company and
00:19:59
Sachs you picked America's natural gas
00:20:01
industry freeberg open AI wow a lot of
00:20:03
good choices there I think open AI was a
00:20:06
huge winner in 2023 yeah freeberg even
00:20:09
with the chaos say so I would say so
00:20:11
that was a good pick massive Revenue the
00:20:13
highest market cap gain of the Year
00:20:14
probably yeah 30 to 90 billion yeah
00:20:18
American natural gas industry that
00:20:19
really actually cooked in uh 2023 yeah
00:20:23
saak yeah yeah it had a new record so
00:20:25
good prediction was a good pick yeah
00:20:27
good pick all right so let's go right to
00:20:30
2024 predictions freeberg you haven't
00:20:32
let us off yet so you're going to lead
00:20:34
be the leadoff batter here what do you
00:20:35
got I'm going with commodities
00:20:38
businesses which I know isn't speaking a
00:20:40
specific business but there's a lot of
00:20:41
ways to play it and I think there's a
00:20:43
big Commodities boom that's coming back
00:20:44
in
00:20:45
2024 there's been a lot of
00:20:47
underinvestment relative to
00:20:49
demand over the past call it 18 to 24
00:20:52
months coming out of covid and with
00:20:55
Rising interest rates a lot of folks
00:20:58
have been selling down inventory and
00:21:00
there now needs to be a build backup on
00:21:02
inventory and Supply there's also a
00:21:05
bunch of cash coming into the
00:21:06
Commodities markets that was sitting in
00:21:09
treasuries as yields go down that cash
00:21:11
is coming back so building the base back
00:21:14
up rebuilding stock piles and supplies
00:21:16
coming out of the past 18 months
00:21:17
obviously economic activity is strong
00:21:19
and
00:21:19
robust so Commodities businesses are
00:21:22
going to see a a killer 2024 chamat what
00:21:24
do you got I think the biggest business
00:21:26
winner in 202 for is going to be
00:21:30
the
00:21:31
bootstrapped startup and or the
00:21:34
profitable startup
00:21:36
but the best will probably be the
00:21:38
bootstrapped profitable startup and I
00:21:41
think the
00:21:42
reason is that we are
00:21:46
underestimating how cheap it's going to
00:21:49
be to copy an existing business in
00:21:54
2024 and so if you assume that these
00:21:56
models are going to get 10 and 100 times
00:21:58
better and you assume the cost of
00:22:01
compute is going to get 10 and 100 times
00:22:03
cheaper and you assume the cost of
00:22:05
energy is going to get 10 times
00:22:09
cheaper you're no longer measuring in
00:22:11
decades when a company will be subject
00:22:13
to disruption I think you're measuring
00:22:15
it in frankly months and so I think
00:22:17
you're going to be able to create these
00:22:20
companies for very cheap and essentially
00:22:23
have them attack an existing business
00:22:26
which has upside on economics because
00:22:28
they have just a lot of people and a lot
00:22:29
of processes that
00:22:31
these gpts can replicate for essentially
00:22:34
free so if you're profitable you have
00:22:36
the chance to survive and I think if you
00:22:38
are unprofitable I think that you're
00:22:40
going to be under a lot of pressure I
00:22:43
think it's a great pick that's exactly
00:22:45
what I'm seeing on the field in the
00:22:47
early stage saaks who's your prediction
00:22:50
for a biggest business winner of 2024
00:22:51
who do you predict is going to be the
00:22:52
biggest business winner I'm predicting
00:22:55
andril for its Roadrunner product which
00:22:58
it announced last year and this is
00:23:02
a drone Interceptor so basically
00:23:05
intercepts drones it's built for
00:23:08
groundbased air defense and the reason I
00:23:10
say this is because if you saw recently
00:23:13
what was happening in the Red Sea with
00:23:15
the hooes the US was having to use $2
00:23:18
million air defense missiles to shoot
00:23:20
down $2,000 drones and that is not
00:23:23
sustainable so right now we have a huge
00:23:27
problem with asymmetric Warfare where
00:23:30
our adversaries are using very cheap
00:23:33
missiles very cheap drones swarms of
00:23:35
them and they force us to exhaust our
00:23:39
air defenses which are just way too
00:23:42
expensive on a unit basis cost hundreds
00:23:43
of thousands of dollars do you think
00:23:45
yeah I think that's right I think the
00:23:46
road runner system costs hundreds of
00:23:47
thousands of dollars but it can be it's
00:23:49
reusable so it's not like you just send
00:23:51
one up to take out re if it doesn't blow
00:23:54
up if it does blow up I don't think you
00:23:55
can reuse it it basically takes off at
00:23:58
at lers this is a basically a AI system
00:24:02
where it's self self-driving I guess if
00:24:04
you will it has operators but and then
00:24:06
it returns back to its base station
00:24:08
after it's used it's not like a kamakazi
00:24:11
type drone it's actually a drone killer
00:24:13
oh really I think it is I think it can
00:24:15
do dual purpose it can either intercept
00:24:17
and blow something up or it can return
00:24:18
back to base but we'll have to check in
00:24:20
on that hey and shout out to our friend
00:24:21
pmer lucky come back on the program in
00:24:24
we miss you shout out to our boy are you
00:24:26
an investor of saxs in uh Andel no I'm
00:24:28
not I'm not an investor but I think I
00:24:29
would be yeah you know so they ra a ton
00:24:33
of money Palmer great job yeah no Palmer
00:24:35
we'll all buy actually I'm building a
00:24:37
position right now I've been buying
00:24:38
secondary in
00:24:40
Andre and for me I was going to go with
00:24:43
start up are you really buying secondary
00:24:45
shares in andril I've been building a
00:24:47
large position in Andro yes I'm I'm I'm
00:24:49
trying to get to a 2% ownership position
00:24:50
so I can join the board so I've been
00:24:53
yeah
00:24:53
using so shout out to my guy bom we
00:24:57
lucky I am going to go with for my
00:24:59
biggest winner in 2024 training data
00:25:02
owners like the New York Times Reddit X
00:25:04
Twitter Youtube Etc I think what we
00:25:06
learned in
00:25:08
2023 was that the language models are
00:25:10
starting to hit parody very quickly and
00:25:13
that the real value is going to be in
00:25:16
and it may even become Commodities and
00:25:18
open source may win the day so then I
00:25:19
think the winner is folks who have the
00:25:22
training data and I'm actually proposing
00:25:24
a new business model for these language
00:25:26
models I think
00:25:28
now that we've seen this New York Times
00:25:30
an open AI lawsuit I think there's a
00:25:32
really great outcome here which is a
00:25:34
market-based solution where if
00:25:36
you have a chat GPT account you can log
00:25:40
in and Federate with your New York Times
00:25:42
subscription or you know any other
00:25:45
subscription and then it gives you the
00:25:46
tier of chat gp4 with the New York Times
00:25:50
and so that could be a win-win for
00:25:51
everybody or they could obviously pay a
00:25:53
licensing fee and so I think this is
00:25:55
going to be an amazing turnaround for
00:25:56
the entire content industry if the
00:26:00
language models respect copyright owners
00:26:03
and come up with a sustainable system
00:26:04
where every year copyright holders can
00:26:06
get some money in exchange for using
00:26:09
their training data whether it's on
00:26:10
images or content so I'm very bullish
00:26:13
accumulate a 2% position in open AI
00:26:15
through secondary purchases and get them
00:26:18
to do that on the board it's only two
00:26:19
billion yeah no I think yeah I I mean we
00:26:22
we didn't bring this up because this
00:26:23
broke over the the the holiday break but
00:26:25
I think Sam alman's doing a great job of
00:26:28
telling people he wants to do the right
00:26:29
thing and we we discussed previously the
00:26:31
licensing deal they did with Business
00:26:33
Insider and the and the parent company
00:26:34
of it a springer what do you think the
00:26:36
deal with New York Times would look like
00:26:38
I think it's going to be a nine fig
00:26:39
settlement for previous stuff and then
00:26:42
an ongoing licensing fee in order to
00:26:44
have the New York Times in their
00:26:45
training data and then you'll be able
00:26:48
to say hey what does the New York Times
00:26:50
think of this right you could actually
00:26:52
do queries about the New York Times in
00:26:54
it and I think the New York Times will
00:26:55
come up with a license that everybody
00:26:57
can use their data if they pay this
00:27:00
yearly fee if you stop paying the yearly
00:27:02
fee then you can't train on it and we're
00:27:04
in Uncharted Territory you're saying
00:27:06
there's going to be a New York Times
00:27:08
model and a non- New York Times model
00:27:10
well I think you could do two different
00:27:12
things one you could do New York Times
00:27:13
could make their own model right but
00:27:16
they could Fork their model or just to
00:27:17
the user interface say if you want to
00:27:19
query New York Times information and
00:27:21
have that as part of your results you
00:27:23
have to have a New York Times account
00:27:24
right so if you say I want best coffee
00:27:28
machines or what what's the best coffee
00:27:29
equipment it says oh if you had wire
00:27:32
cutter and the subscription to New York
00:27:34
Times we would include the wire cutter
00:27:35
results and this idea that technologists
00:27:38
can't do citations has been proven
00:27:41
absolutely incorrect there are language
00:27:42
models out there that are using
00:27:43
citations all the time open AI I think
00:27:45
will wind up losing the case if it goes
00:27:47
to them out and I think they're going to
00:27:48
pay a big licensing fee to your question
00:27:50
chamal my prediction then is that if
00:27:52
this happens this is not my pick but I'm
00:27:54
just going to tell
00:27:55
you I suspect that what happens is
00:27:57
you'll get these yearly licensing fees
00:27:59
and then one year the New York Times
00:28:02
just falls off a cliff and when it comes
00:28:04
time to renegotiate then open AI says no
00:28:08
and and they won't have a choice well I
00:28:10
mean that's possibility but if you think
00:28:12
about the Disney characters you know
00:28:14
let's I don't know if you saw Nintendo
00:28:15
and Disney characters you know making
00:28:17
stuff on dolly or other things if you
00:28:20
make derivative works on that and you
00:28:22
want to have that feature as part of
00:28:23
your image Creator you just have to have
00:28:25
a licensing fee and so I think there's a
00:28:28
win-win here to be had and I I'm really
00:28:29
interested to see the market based
00:28:31
solution because I don't think this is a
00:28:32
Napster situation where like open a get
00:28:34
shuts down because opening eyes too
00:28:36
Savvy I bet you the big difference
00:28:38
between Napster and this is there the
00:28:39
content Universe was limited and small
00:28:42
here it's infinite and unlimited and so
00:28:45
how do you pay anything to anybody
00:28:46
without I just think it's like without
00:28:48
direct attribution to revenue which is
00:28:50
basically impossible you're kind of
00:28:52
making a value judgment which I don't
00:28:54
think makes any sense I I think I think
00:28:56
doing a revenue Li licing deal is
00:28:59
impossible when you get into the weeds
00:29:00
when these business people sit down and
00:29:02
actually start try to figure out the bid
00:29:04
ask I don't know as a rational coherent
00:29:07
business person what you would model in
00:29:10
order to present a
00:29:12
number yeah so one suggestion would be
00:29:15
what percentage of the models creation
00:29:18
was using the New York Times data and I
00:29:20
think people say 1 to two% of the
00:29:21
original chat GPT was built off a
00:29:24
trading data was New York Times and then
00:29:26
if they weighted that heavily moth like
00:29:28
let's say they said New York Times is an
00:29:30
authoritatively five times more
00:29:32
important than these other sources that
00:29:33
could be upwards of 5 to 10% of the
00:29:35
authority of that model yeah but yes
00:29:38
it's not easy but what's the Cog yeah
00:29:40
but what's the cogs for the like are you
00:29:42
telling me that like an AI industry has
00:29:44
this going to be like a 30 40% cost of
00:29:47
goods you could say that chat GPT or
00:29:50
let's say apple I I predict Apple will
00:29:52
do this right they'll do a language
00:29:53
model where they say 50% of the revenue
00:29:55
that we generate from queries subscri to
00:29:58
this goes to the people we built it off
00:30:00
of or the lies sure why not why not
00:30:03
they're already the music industry
00:30:04
already does that that would guarantee
00:30:06
the death of the startup ecosystem and
00:30:09
it would guarantee the lock in of big
00:30:11
Tech no I don't think so you could build
00:30:14
models that don't have the data in you
00:30:15
could build models with it so it'll be a
00:30:17
choice by the person who builds the
00:30:18
model and synthetic data might make it
00:30:20
so you don't need the New York Times
00:30:21
shth it's early days for synthetic G no
00:30:23
I don't have an opinion I'm just
00:30:24
reacting to this idea that 50% of COG
00:30:27
then all of a sudden these aren't
00:30:28
software companies you know these
00:30:29
software companies will have a gross
00:30:31
margin of like 30% yeah well what does
00:30:33
Spotify pay for music you know so the
00:30:36
same arguments made for Spotify you know
00:30:37
or Netflix Jason that's the difference
00:30:40
it's limited in scope meaning there's
00:30:42
there's only ever one hit song from
00:30:43
Rihanna that matters or Jay-Z or
00:30:47
whomever pick Taylor Swift and so it's a
00:30:49
very scoped content universe and so you
00:30:51
can ascribe value much easier because
00:30:53
then the user goes and actually listens
00:30:55
to that song over another this is about
00:30:58
something that's happening under the
00:30:59
waterline where you don't know how the
00:31:01
iceberg is buil it's both there are
00:31:02
things under the model that do it and
00:31:04
then there's also quoting stuff and
00:31:06
that's really where the New York Times
00:31:07
got them caught them with their hand in
00:31:08
the cookie jar is that when it was
00:31:10
regurgitating information and giving the
00:31:12
results it was quoting deeply New York
00:31:14
Times proprietary content and so that's
00:31:17
that's where there's like a you're
00:31:18
you're right about the training data but
00:31:20
you you might be wrong about the the but
00:31:22
that could be fixed right they could
00:31:24
train models and they could they could
00:31:26
exclude storing any proprietary data you
00:31:29
can create a filter that says the model
00:31:30
can't store any of this data but it can
00:31:33
still be or can't use it right so if you
00:31:35
say what's the best coffee machine it
00:31:37
can't use the New York Times wire cut of
00:31:38
data and I I bet you that Sam wman has
00:31:41
already built a model without it I
00:31:43
guarantee you they've already built a
00:31:45
for an eer press here in case of
00:31:46
emergency here's the 4.5 model in case
00:31:49
they got an injunction which would be
00:31:50
highly unlikely but if they did get an
00:31:51
injunction they just say okay here's 4.5
00:31:54
it doesn't use the New York Times
00:31:55
training data so
00:31:57
this is all Uncharted Territory as we
00:31:59
all know I think we got everybody's
00:32:01
business predictions okay andril
00:32:03
Commodities training data and bootstop
00:32:06
profitable startups what a great cohort
00:32:07
there let's go on to biggest business
00:32:09
losers in
00:32:11
2024
00:32:12
2023 chamat said Google search as
00:32:15
measured by profitability engagement Sac
00:32:18
said the
00:32:19
consumer freeberg said Capital intensive
00:32:22
series BC's and DG growth companies
00:32:25
that's pretty pretty good winner there
00:32:27
and I said white collar workers without
00:32:29
hard skills also known as Surplus
00:32:32
Elites any feedback on those boys as
00:32:35
your winner I'll give you my prediction
00:32:36
for 24 please yes go ahead vertical SAS
00:32:41
companies I think are going to get
00:32:43
smacked this year and I I mentioned this
00:32:45
I don't I can't I think we talked about
00:32:46
this sep off off the show but or if we
00:32:50
talked about on the show I apologize but
00:32:51
like I think these tools to write code
00:32:54
no code tools co-piloting tools
00:32:57
and the ability for engineers to get 20
00:33:01
50 100x more productive to build custom
00:33:04
applications for their Enterprise are so
00:33:06
incredibly powerful I mentioned this to
00:33:08
you guys I know of a couple uh vertical
00:33:10
SAS businesses that some of my companies
00:33:13
use the software and they're getting off
00:33:16
the software because they've built
00:33:18
Homegrown Solutions at a very lowcost
00:33:20
very low touch way and I'm seeing that
00:33:23
so frequently now I think this is a real
00:33:25
threat to vertical sasp businesses that
00:33:27
can charge thousands of dollars per seat
00:33:29
per year that are getting disrupted by
00:33:31
the ability for companies now to very
00:33:33
cheaply and quickly build hom grown
00:33:35
Solutions using a lot of the generative
00:33:37
tools that are out there sax your
00:33:39
prediction my prediction for biggest
00:33:40
business loser in 24 is is actually the
00:33:43
German economy there's two big problems
00:33:46
there first is that the loss of cheap
00:33:48
Russian gas has really cut the legs out
00:33:50
from under the German industrial model
00:33:53
their entire economy is based on
00:33:56
Industrial output and cheap Russian gas
00:33:59
was sort of at the foundation of that as
00:34:01
you guys know someone blew up the
00:34:02
nordstream
00:34:04
pipeline I think that has really hurt
00:34:07
the German economy and then second the
00:34:10
German car industry has been massively
00:34:13
impacted by a sudden glut of cheap cars
00:34:16
coming from China so if you look at the
00:34:19
Chinese automotive industry it's really
00:34:22
exploded in the last few years and auto
00:34:25
exports is one of you know is one of the
00:34:27
biggest products that Germany
00:34:29
manufactures and with German costs going
00:34:32
up and Chinese costs coming down that's
00:34:34
just not a very good place for them to
00:34:36
be so I think double whammy for Germany
00:34:39
shth do you have the biggest business
00:34:42
loser in 2024 I am going to say that
00:34:46
24 is the
00:34:48
peak in terms of valuations of
00:34:51
professional
00:34:53
sports oh and I will give you four
00:34:57
examples in 2023 that I think
00:35:00
were in some very concerning or pro
00:35:04
sports franchise values as of today the
00:35:09
first was you had an upstart competitor
00:35:11
to a league that came out of nowhere
00:35:14
used money to overcome the ability to
00:35:17
attract Stars I'm talking about the Liv
00:35:20
tour versus the PGA and then essentially
00:35:23
Force the PGA into merger talks with
00:35:25
them the second was you had a country
00:35:29
use their balance sheet to basically try
00:35:32
to jump start their own professional
00:35:34
sports business in this case it was
00:35:36
soccer the country was Saudi Arabia and
00:35:39
the players were Ronaldo and Messi they
00:35:41
got one but not the
00:35:42
other the third was the explosion of nil
00:35:46
inside the NCAA you have people in
00:35:49
college now making more in some cases
00:35:52
than the same player in a professional
00:35:55
sports context so there making millions
00:35:57
of dollars to be in college and then the
00:36:00
fourth which may not seem like it's
00:36:02
related but there was an article in the
00:36:04
Wall Street Journal I think recently
00:36:06
about a meaningful uptick and churn
00:36:09
amongst all the streamers Netflix Hulu
00:36:11
all of these companies Amazon who are
00:36:15
the only folks with in a position to
00:36:17
actually have the balance sheet to keep
00:36:18
paying a premium for professional sports
00:36:21
rights so I think when you put that all
00:36:24
together you can start to see that
00:36:27
there's been a Tipping Point in
00:36:30
Enterprise values the acceleration we've
00:36:33
seen over the last decade has slowed
00:36:34
down so I would say that 2024 is going
00:36:37
to be the year of peak Pro Sports values
00:36:41
okay starts to come down and I went with
00:36:43
smartphones smartphone manufacturers are
00:36:46
facing a major slowdown consumers
00:36:48
obviously love their phones and use them
00:36:49
constantly but people are skipping a
00:36:51
generation of phones and if you look at
00:36:54
Apple's Revenue they're having a very
00:36:56
hard time getting people to upgrade and
00:36:58
so I think that's going to flatten out
00:36:59
they will keep trying to squeeze money
00:37:01
out of it I don't know what you guys
00:37:03
spent on your iPhone 15 if you got it
00:37:04
but I I always buy the top of the line
00:37:06
and I think it was $14 or $1,500 this
00:37:09
time and when I got the accountants they
00:37:12
said oh is this a new laptop I said no
00:37:14
it's a new phone but I think this is
00:37:16
going to slow down and people will
00:37:18
during austerity they're going to skip
00:37:20
to a three versions of it I know I
00:37:21
skipped for the first time I skipped the
00:37:23
14 this time around so I'm going with
00:37:25
smartphone manufacturers and apple would
00:37:27
be obviously the tip of that spear let's
00:37:29
keep moving our next prediction biggest
00:37:31
business deal of
00:37:33
2024 biggest business deal of 2024 I
00:37:36
went with uh last year my prediction was
00:37:39
Amazon getting into Healthcare maybe
00:37:40
they buy pelaton or Roman hyns and they
00:37:43
have been getting into Healthcare a
00:37:45
bunch more and my my wild card was a CCP
00:37:48
divesting of Tik Tock that didn't happen
00:37:50
chamat you went starlink goes public in
00:37:52
a spin out from SpaceX at 75 billion
00:37:54
that didn't happen but starlink is doing
00:37:57
fantastic Sachs you said a deal between
00:38:00
Putin and she and then
00:38:02
freeberg you said Petro for Juan trade
00:38:05
the Saudi China trade any thoughts on
00:38:07
the predictions there doesn't look like
00:38:09
anybody nailed it well no actually Putin
00:38:12
G did make a deal their ties have never
00:38:14
been stronger and the trade between
00:38:16
those two countries keeps increasing as
00:38:18
a result of the fact that we pushed
00:38:20
Russia into China's arm so that
00:38:21
absolutely happened and what's your
00:38:23
prediction to sh saxs biggest business
00:38:25
deal Sachs what do you got my biggest
00:38:26
business deal is whatever the FED
00:38:29
decides to do to replace or extend btfp
00:38:33
the bank term funding program um
00:38:36
remember that the btfp which is what the
00:38:38
FED used to bail out the regional
00:38:40
banking system last year and was it like
00:38:43
March or April it was only supposed to
00:38:45
last for one year it's supposed to be a
00:38:46
temporary program but I do not think
00:38:49
that the balance sheets of regional
00:38:51
banks are healthy enough to survive
00:38:54
without this continued liquidity from
00:38:56
this program program so I think the
00:38:57
fed's going to have to do something to
00:38:59
either replace a program extend the
00:39:01
program they're going to have to do
00:39:03
something and I think that Regional
00:39:06
banks are still in pretty bad shape with
00:39:09
you know impaired commercial debt
00:39:12
portfolios and they need this liquidity
00:39:15
as long as the yield curve remains
00:39:16
inverted so I think the FED is going to
00:39:20
try and somehow figure out a program to
00:39:23
keep these
00:39:25
guys liquid until they can de invert the
00:39:30
yield curve and I think the fed's trying
00:39:32
to massage all of this into place
00:39:35
without there being a recession seems
00:39:36
like they'll be able to do it jamat what
00:39:38
do you got I'm going to go with the same
00:39:40
thing I think I was just off by your
00:39:42
starlink go
00:39:43
public
00:39:45
fascinating I like it and I had a
00:39:48
similar theme my Wild Card my wild card
00:39:52
last year that the C CP would divest of
00:39:54
Tik Tok I'm going to say this year that
00:39:56
I think Tik Tok goes public and they'll
00:39:59
be under pressure from different
00:40:01
political factions to get the CCP off
00:40:04
the board so I'm going to go with bite
00:40:05
dance taking going public or Tik Tok
00:40:08
spinning out and going public some some
00:40:09
version of that freeberg what do you got
00:40:11
for this year we got some continuation
00:40:13
bets here from Jake Allen yeah I would
00:40:15
keep going with my Petro Yuan trade bet
00:40:17
I don't think that the us is going to
00:40:19
let Saudi become a nuclear power but so
00:40:22
maybe leave that one outstanding but I
00:40:25
think rights holder is getting LIC ing
00:40:26
deals for generative AI there's going to
00:40:28
be a couple of Blockbuster deals this
00:40:29
year great where you'll see like Disney
00:40:33
license out a chunk of their Library so
00:40:35
people can generate on demand video
00:40:37
games or content or I don't know you
00:40:40
guys remember this company in the early
00:40:41
2000s called Zazzle do you remember that
00:40:43
company yeah what was that printed stuff
00:40:45
on mugs yeah and they had a big deal
00:40:48
with Disney where the idea was you could
00:40:51
put any character in any way you want on
00:40:53
any piece of like t-shirt or mug or
00:40:56
whatever merch yeah and it was like
00:40:58
merch and it was a big deal I think we
00:41:00
see that again with generative AI this
00:41:02
year where you can take for example a
00:41:04
character from a movie and generate them
00:41:06
in an image so anyone that has in in
00:41:08
interest in content rights will start to
00:41:10
license it out and get a lot of value
00:41:12
from it absolutely see a couple big
00:41:14
deals like that this year okay most
00:41:16
contrarian belief of
00:41:18
2024 I went American exceptionalism
00:41:20
Source I think I I like that prediction
00:41:22
from last year ah had chamat you said
00:41:24
inflation doesn't fall off a cliff
00:41:26
fastest people want saak says the
00:41:29
Bromance between Biden and zalinsky
00:41:30
comes to an end freeberg you said 2023
00:41:33
marks the beginning of the end of the US
00:41:35
dollar as the global Reserve currency I
00:41:37
nailed that one
00:41:40
um it it didn't fall off a cliff it
00:41:43
didn't what was inflation in the first
00:41:46
quarter of 2023 just kidding it fell off
00:41:48
a cliff oh I'm like it yeah I'm like
00:41:50
wait a second it's like what the you
00:41:53
talking about yeah sorry you're
00:41:55
confusing like really wait a second I
00:41:57
think you get the Jim Kramer or the
00:41:59
professor Galloway moment for that
00:42:01
prediction yeah I think you might have
00:42:03
missed that one by a bit all right what
00:42:05
do you got chath for this year what do
00:42:07
you got most contrarian belief of 2024 I
00:42:09
think the Enterprise value of open AI
00:42:11
goes down oh okay I don't think it has
00:42:15
anything to do with open AI I think it
00:42:18
has everything to do with the rest of
00:42:19
the industry I I think there's a couple
00:42:22
of factors at play similar to what I
00:42:24
just said earlier but if you actually
00:42:27
try to use these tools which now I have
00:42:30
been in my sort of day job as as CEO
00:42:33
I've been trying to build models Sunny's
00:42:35
been helping me my takeaway are two
00:42:38
things number one is the latency right
00:42:40
now amongst all these AI tools makes
00:42:43
building production quality code
00:42:45
absolutely impossible so you can't have
00:42:48
apis where you take 30 40 50 seconds in
00:42:51
between a request to get data back it's
00:42:53
that's ridiculous these need to be
00:42:56
starter yeah 50 30 40 70 milliseconds
00:43:00
second is the actual cost of a million
00:43:03
tokens on any of these
00:43:07
platforms is economically untenable if
00:43:11
you're trying to build something so
00:43:13
whether it's Amazon whether it's
00:43:16
together AI whether it's open AI it's
00:43:18
extremely extremely
00:43:21
expensive so I think that capitalism
00:43:23
would tell you that if these two things
00:43:25
are true
00:43:26
you should expect people to Arbitrage
00:43:29
that opening and so if you see cloud
00:43:33
services come out that allow you to
00:43:35
basically get millisecond latency batch
00:43:37
size one on the one hand and second
00:43:40
where you have pricing for a million
00:43:42
tokens that's sort of 10 20
00:43:45
cents those folks and they'll need to
00:43:47
build their own custom Hardware to do it
00:43:49
but those folks will multiply the
00:43:52
capability of this Market by a
00:43:54
THX and I think when that happens the
00:43:58
open source models really proliferate
00:44:00
proprietary models and closed models go
00:44:03
under pressure and the existing
00:44:05
economics of how you make money today
00:44:07
will get reallocated to those different
00:44:09
players and I think in that it's going
00:44:11
to be very hard for existing folks I I
00:44:13
would say the same is probably true for
00:44:15
NVIDIA the folks that have won up until
00:44:18
today to maintain a multiple of market
00:44:21
cap in this next year if that happens
00:44:23
and so my prediction is that will happen
00:44:25
and as a result the Enterprise values of
00:44:28
of those companies and I think open a
00:44:29
will be the most obvious will go down
00:44:31
people buying secondary at 90 billion
00:44:33
right now will be underwater next year
00:44:34
well no it's again they have to
00:44:37
believe that the revenue composition
00:44:40
today is sustainable and if you look
00:44:42
under the hood half the revenue is
00:44:44
consumers paying subscriptions the other
00:44:46
half the revenue our Enterprises paying
00:44:48
for essentially some version of AWS yes
00:44:52
but the problem is that version of AWS
00:44:55
is econom ially non functional it's
00:44:59
unsustainable it's way too expensive and
00:45:01
it's way too slow and by the way that's
00:45:04
just not an open AI problem it's an
00:45:05
entire industry problem and so if this
00:45:07
industry is really going to be real it
00:45:10
needs to be literally dirt cheap and as
00:45:12
close to zero as possible the minute
00:45:13
that that happens that Revenue goes away
00:45:16
so then they they're just left with the
00:45:17
subscription and by the way the people
00:45:18
that provide that will be the ones that
00:45:20
have the hardware to
00:45:21
enable that thousand Xing of the cost
00:45:25
which is azure
00:45:26
AWS and no I think these are startups
00:45:29
that are building proprietary Hardware
00:45:31
oh okay wow so there's another
00:45:32
prediction freeberg what do you got 2024
00:45:34
prediction most contrarian belief okay
00:45:36
so I don't think we're past the conflict
00:45:39
escalation stage I think things are only
00:45:41
going
00:45:41
to continue to mount so a lot of the
00:45:45
theater that we see on a global stage is
00:45:49
more fundamentally driven by these big
00:45:52
cycles that we're in so I think a big
00:45:56
one and a kind of tactical one I think
00:45:58
the big one that's contrarian is that
00:46:01
there's an increased probability of a
00:46:03
nuclear weapon being used for the first
00:46:04
time in
00:46:06
conflict and I think that that's
00:46:08
conditioned on the fact that there are
00:46:11
declining military uh supplies there's
00:46:14
declining appetite and capacity to
00:46:16
support traditional conflict meat
00:46:18
grinder type conflicts that that we're
00:46:20
seeing Sprout up everywhere right now
00:46:23
and or not everywhere but in a lot of
00:46:24
places and you could see a moment where
00:46:28
as I mentioned in the past someone gets
00:46:29
backed into a corner and a tactical low
00:46:31
yield nuclear weapon gets used and I
00:46:33
think that when you do that it opens up
00:46:35
the gates to hell so it's a little scary
00:46:36
that's why you know we all joking aside
00:46:39
that's why you bought the radiation
00:46:41
suits and and by the way I don't think
00:46:43
this is a high probability and I'm not
00:46:44
joking I don't think it's a high
00:46:45
probability I think it's like one you
00:46:47
know call it one to two% chance
00:46:48
something like this happens but it's 10x
00:46:50
where it was five years ago and so
00:46:52
that's the outcome of this is terrifying
00:46:56
yeah yeah it's such a significant event
00:46:57
that it's it's definitely one to kind of
00:46:59
be be thoughtful about um and then the
00:47:01
other one that I kind of said was
00:47:02
tactical is I think there's a risk that
00:47:04
turkey gets challenged to leave
00:47:06
NATO that a lot of what's going on right
00:47:09
now where turkey is siding with Hamas
00:47:12
this has obviously been talked about and
00:47:14
rumored about for a long time there's no
00:47:16
real mechanism by the way for kicking a
00:47:17
member out of NATO but I'll share with
00:47:20
you guys there's a lot of political
00:47:21
commentary that turkey cannot be a
00:47:22
trusted Ally and obviously that now you
00:47:25
know turkey is siding with folks who are
00:47:28
actual threats uh to the West the US
00:47:30
incentive is you don't want to see
00:47:31
turkey with the biggest one of the
00:47:32
biggest armies in Europe run into
00:47:34
Russia's arms you're going to try to
00:47:37
keep them in NATO but there is a real
00:47:39
risk that you start to see the first
00:47:41
fracturing of NATO happen with turkey
00:47:43
being asked to leave or some negotiation
00:47:45
on something that happens this year so
00:47:47
that that's one that I keep an eye on
00:47:48
that is certainly not top of anyone's
00:47:50
mind but it certainly begins to beg the
00:47:53
question of the uh the importance NATO
00:47:56
what do you got sxs your most contrarian
00:47:59
belief can I first just make a comment
00:48:01
on last year's pick yes if it's okay so
00:48:04
I you know last year I felt like I was
00:48:05
going out in a limb predicting a rift in
00:48:08
the Bromance between Biden and zalinsky
00:48:09
because that relationship seem so
00:48:11
tight and with about four days left in
00:48:15
the year there was this article that
00:48:17
came out in Politico that says the Biden
00:48:19
Administration is quietly shifting its
00:48:20
strategy in Ukraine the article
00:48:22
basically says that the administration
00:48:23
wants to go on the defensive and I think
00:48:26
pretty clearly it wants a ceasefire and
00:48:28
a frozen conflict it wants to get this
00:48:31
conflict sort of out of the way swept
00:48:33
under the rug before the election season
00:48:36
really cranks into high gear and the
00:48:38
problem they have is that zalinski does
00:48:40
not want to negotiate a ceasefire with
00:48:44
Russia that would involve Ukraine losing
00:48:46
territory so there is now a rift between
00:48:50
maybe not Biden himself but let's say
00:48:52
Biden operatives the Biden
00:48:54
Administration and what zalinsky wants
00:48:56
and I think this will be a theme in
00:48:59
2024 is how do you reign in zalinski
00:49:03
after you've been telling the public for
00:49:05
the last two years that our job is to
00:49:07
support whatever zalinsky wants and your
00:49:09
prediction for this year so my
00:49:11
prediction for for this year is that the
00:49:13
soft Landing gets very bumpy I think
00:49:16
that over the last two months of the
00:49:17
year I think markets got super
00:49:19
optimistic they started pricing in big
00:49:21
Fed rate Cuts you know let's call it one
00:49:23
and a half% so we had this h stock
00:49:26
market rally in November December and I
00:49:28
think there's generally a very strong
00:49:30
belief that the FED will be able to pull
00:49:32
off the soft
00:49:33
Landing I'm not necessarily saying that
00:49:36
there's going to be a recession I just
00:49:38
you know I feel like I've predicted 10
00:49:39
of the last two recessions
00:49:41
so I keep basically predicting recession
00:49:43
when there's not one yeah but I do think
00:49:46
that there's just been too much too soon
00:49:49
of this Euphoria and I just think that
00:49:52
this year is going to be a lot bumpier
00:49:54
than that both politically and
00:49:56
economically so I think there's just a
00:49:58
little bit too much Euphoria and
00:50:01
overoptimism right now I'm tempted to go
00:50:03
again with American exceptionalism I
00:50:05
think I nailed that last year America
00:50:07
just had an amazing year in 2023 while
00:50:10
Xi Jinping made unforced errors and
00:50:13
getting rid of capitalism in his country
00:50:15
and nobody starting companies there and
00:50:16
stock market falling apart real estate
00:50:17
falling apart and now he's coming back
00:50:19
to America as we saw when he had a
00:50:20
summit with Biden asking people please
00:50:22
come back and invest again huge unforced
00:50:25
and I think Russia with the huge
00:50:27
unforced era losing hundreds of
00:50:29
thousands of their citizens their young
00:50:31
people to a senseless War for no reason
00:50:34
and losing customers in the west like
00:50:36
Germany as you pointed out Sachs I think
00:50:39
American exceptionalism will continue to
00:50:41
sore but I don't want to take the same
00:50:44
prediction so I also consider two other
00:50:47
options Apple making huge gains in
00:50:49
generative Ai and then streaming
00:50:51
services right sizing and becoming
00:50:53
highly profitable and having a rebound
00:50:55
between those two I think I'm going to
00:50:57
go with apple as my contrarian belief I
00:50:59
think apple is going to become a player
00:51:00
in
00:51:01
AI the end of the year maybe they reboot
00:51:04
Siri but they're going to figure
00:51:06
something out and I think they're not
00:51:07
going
00:51:08
to remain on the sidelines when it comes
00:51:11
to AI so I'm going to go with apple
00:51:13
making huge gains in generative AI or AI
00:51:16
in general maybe a new Seri coming soon
00:51:18
best performing asset of 2024 in 2023 I
00:51:22
went with seed stage investing I think
00:51:23
I'll be proven right in 5 years
00:51:26
but that's kind of hard to prove in the
00:51:27
short term chth you said cash and the
00:51:29
front end of the yield curve s went with
00:51:31
short-term T bills as well and freeberg
00:51:34
you went with semiconductor Capital
00:51:36
Equipment oil gas Services Pharma
00:51:39
infrastructure anybody have thoughts on
00:51:40
their predictions from last year Dash
00:51:42
was pretty good at 5% no kidding right
00:51:44
as good as it gets yeah this's just not
00:51:46
a lot of motivation to enter the markets
00:51:48
when you're earning five five and a
00:51:50
half% risk free Okay so let's do our 20
00:51:53
sem cap equipment up 60% aming Good Year
00:51:56
good year freeberg what do you got
00:51:58
what's your prediction for best
00:51:59
performing asset of this coming year oh
00:52:01
I took the uranium ETF Ur Easy
00:52:05
Money whether it plays out in the next
00:52:07
12 months or over time I'm not sure it's
00:52:09
shift an inevitability a lot of folks
00:52:11
have this beted on this trade on
00:52:13
it's it's kind of Anil that we have to
00:52:16
see it's a it's an index on businesses
00:52:20
that benefit from Mining and producing
00:52:23
nuclear power mining uranium producing
00:52:25
nuclear power China is building up 450
00:52:27
nuclear power stations as we' talked
00:52:29
about there's a lot of ESG driven demand
00:52:31
and a lot of conflict driven demand big
00:52:32
shift
00:52:33
underway a lot of deregulatory effort
00:52:36
underway globally to try and get nuclear
00:52:39
back on track nuclear power back on
00:52:41
track so these companies are going to
00:52:43
benefit from this pig macro cycle so
00:52:45
it's a and this is an existing ETF or
00:52:47
you're saying you you you roll one no
00:52:49
called uranium it's a uranium tracking
00:52:53
ETF Ur is the ticker I like a lot
00:52:56
in I do a lot of esoteric General
00:52:59
statements this one I thought I'd go a
00:53:00
little specific I like it I mean it's
00:53:03
it's it's a great prediction and
00:53:05
sentiment has certainly changed here in
00:53:06
the US by way that trade has been on
00:53:08
right so since I'll just tell you guys
00:53:10
it bottomed out in March of this year at
00:53:12
19 bucks it's up 50% since then and in
00:53:16
the last five years you know it's up
00:53:19
2x but plenty of room to run if you look
00:53:22
at the underlying assets that BTF tracks
00:53:25
chath what do you got best performing
00:53:26
asset of 2024 what's your prediction I
00:53:28
have to do it with the worst performing
00:53:30
asset of 2024 because it's a bit of a
00:53:32
spread trade
00:53:34
so I'm going to take the public software
00:53:37
index Tech stock index and my short is
00:53:40
going to be the private tech software
00:53:44
companies the late stage mostly SAS
00:53:46
companies and I think we've all talked
00:53:48
about the reasons why but I think that
00:53:50
the terminal valuations are getting
00:53:52
reset in the public markets I don't
00:53:54
think the growth rates are there in the
00:53:56
private companies and so you're going to
00:53:59
have a reset on valuation in many cases
00:54:03
that reset may just be that they stay at
00:54:05
the same valuation 3 years later even
00:54:07
after doubling revenue or more the
00:54:11
problem is you will have taken another
00:54:12
30%
00:54:14
delution between now and then because of
00:54:16
all the stock-based comp that these
00:54:17
private companies give out so long the
00:54:21
public Tech cycle short the private late
00:54:23
stage Tech cycle expecting a valuation
00:54:26
contraction in the ladder what do you
00:54:28
got sxs what do you think is going to be
00:54:29
the best performing asset of
00:54:31
2024 well I'm really not sure about this
00:54:34
so I would urge nobody to actually trade
00:54:36
on this but yes this is not investment
00:54:39
advice to be clear none of this is
00:54:41
investment advice yeah I'm not I'm not
00:54:43
trading on this on these predictions so
00:54:45
you shouldn't either my guess here just
00:54:47
a guess is energy is energy stocks um
00:54:51
Energy prices could be among the top
00:54:54
performers of 2024 just because there's
00:54:57
so much risk of conflict breaking out
00:54:59
now and escalating so I agree with
00:55:01
freeberg that there are huge risks of
00:55:04
escalation in the Middle East the
00:55:06
Ukraine war is still going on I think
00:55:08
not enough attention is being paid to
00:55:10
what's happening between Venezuela and
00:55:13
Guyana uh Venezuela is basically
00:55:16
attempting to
00:55:17
Annex guyana's offshore oil reserves
00:55:21
which are huge this is basically just
00:55:23
pure theft Ethiopia ALS o has tense
00:55:27
relationships with a few of its
00:55:28
neighbors and I could easily see there
00:55:31
being a war that breaks out between
00:55:32
Ethiopia and Egypt or
00:55:34
Ethiopia
00:55:36
and irraa and and then that could spill
00:55:39
over and create further disruption in
00:55:41
the Red Sea we also still have this
00:55:43
unresolved issue of the hoodies and of
00:55:45
course you have neocon bring for war
00:55:47
with Iran as they always do John Bolton
00:55:49
just published another piece saying that
00:55:51
we had to go to war with Iran so there's
00:55:53
just so many ways that the conflict
00:55:57
could escalate and create I think a
00:55:59
spike in the price of oil all right I
00:56:02
you know I'd love to I in my heart of
00:56:04
hearts I believe the best performing
00:56:06
asset will still be seed stage startups
00:56:09
but I'm going to go with consumer
00:56:11
Comfort
00:56:12
Services I think as austerity measures
00:56:15
and this whether we have a soft Landing
00:56:17
or recession it's clear the consumers
00:56:20
have spent all their money so they're
00:56:21
going to go for small luxuries like door
00:56:24
Dash BNB Uber small things to have great
00:56:29
experiences and I'm talking my book in
00:56:31
two out of those three which I own
00:56:32
shares in but I think consumers are
00:56:34
going to keep treating themselves to
00:56:36
getting some door Dash or uh you know
00:56:39
getting an Airbnb and going to Japan or
00:56:41
whatever it happens to be so consumer
00:56:42
Comfort Services is my pick for the best
00:56:44
performing asset of 2024 worst
00:56:47
performing asset let's go right on to
00:56:49
worst performing asset we're cooking
00:56:51
with oil worst performing asset I went
00:56:53
with energy Cho Tech energy junk debt
00:56:56
saak went with offic hours in San
00:56:58
Francisco and Friberg went with Consumer
00:57:00
Credit wow I think we nailed it in
00:57:01
almost all those cases
00:57:03
here what do we got for
00:57:06
2024 saki got a 2024 prediction of worst
00:57:09
performing asset again this is not
00:57:11
investing advice yeah so I'm not going
00:57:13
to trade on this so just take it with a
00:57:14
grain of salt but I would bet against
00:57:18
the Magnificent 7 just because I believe
00:57:21
that what goes up must come down and the
00:57:23
hotter they are the Harder They Fall I'm
00:57:25
not saying that the Magnificent 7 are
00:57:27
actually going to go down I'm just
00:57:29
saying that the S&P
00:57:31
493 are going to catch up a little bit
00:57:33
so I would book this as a spread trade
00:57:36
where I would bet on the S&P 493 over
00:57:40
the mnon 7 because again I just think
00:57:43
that there's got to be some catching up
00:57:45
here and the huge gains made by the
00:57:49
Magnificent 7 were really based on story
00:57:52
you know based on AI and I don't see why
00:57:57
those gains should be limited to the
00:58:00
Magnificent 7 if AI is going to play
00:58:02
such a big role in the economy chamat I
00:58:05
too when you predicted earlier about
00:58:08
open ey losing some value my worst
00:58:10
performing asset in 2024 is llm startups
00:58:13
I believe they've been massively
00:58:14
overvalued and I believe open source is
00:58:16
making an incredible run at them and I
00:58:18
think they're going to hit parody and
00:58:20
there's too many players this is like
00:58:21
having 15 search engines or 20 Amazon
00:58:24
there's just too many players and
00:58:26
there's too much parody the prices make
00:58:27
no sense and I think they're all going
00:58:29
to come down by you know 50 60 70 80% in
00:58:33
terms of their valuations that that
00:58:35
won't get marked in their books but that
00:58:37
will be the reality of where their
00:58:38
stocks will trade on the private markets
00:58:41
freeberg what's your worst performing
00:58:43
asset worst performing asset just based
00:58:45
on what I shared earlier I would go
00:58:46
short vertical
00:58:48
sass vertical software companies and
00:58:51
long Cloud providers that have ai tools
00:58:54
and platforms that will allow
00:58:56
Enterprises to build custom applications
00:58:59
in a low cost low code way and so you
00:59:03
could obviously pick the companies that
00:59:05
would go in that bucket go along those
00:59:07
those Cloud bucket and go short the
00:59:08
vertical bucket is there like a per seat
00:59:11
price threshold that you think would
00:59:14
kind of demarcate the companies that you
00:59:16
think are at risk in other words like I
00:59:19
invest in plenty of SAS companies that
00:59:21
sell seats at five 10 bucks per per
00:59:25
month I'm just like very
00:59:27
skeptical that it's worth an Enterprises
00:59:29
while to recreate that software no and
00:59:31
and so I'll give you an example there's
00:59:33
a vertical software
00:59:35
provider we're
00:59:37
paying five
00:59:40
grand per seat per year right now and we
00:59:44
look at that and we're like okay it's
00:59:46
basically a data management tool for our
00:59:48
particular vertical let's just go
00:59:50
recreate that and did it very quickly
00:59:52
very low cost and we're going to replace
00:59:53
it
00:59:55
cut that out I don't want to say that
00:59:56
but
00:59:57
yeah is it so it's it's like you know
01:00:01
very specific very expensive but I mean
01:00:03
sax you could probably see the same
01:00:04
thing happen in sales CRM type tools
01:00:07
that are obviously also very expensive
01:00:08
and how much is it D how much do you pay
01:00:12
five grand grand year five grand per
01:00:15
year so that's basically over $400 a
01:00:18
seat per we we have like 100 employees
01:00:21
so we're paying like 500 Grand and so
01:00:23
one of our software engineers is like
01:00:25
this spins up a replacement for it we're
01:00:27
going to roll it out in q1 okay so is
01:00:30
there is there like a per se per month
01:00:32
price that you think starts to where it
01:00:34
doesn't work is it 50 bucks what is the
01:00:36
number I I I I mean I do the math but
01:00:38
yeah it shouldn't be in the range that
01:00:39
it's at for sure but a lot of these guys
01:00:41
where they had a monopoly and it wasn't
01:00:43
worth the company's time to try and
01:00:45
invest in software at the price point
01:00:47
that they were charging they found a
01:00:48
market now the market has to compress so
01:00:51
I'm not saying that the companies go
01:00:52
away but I do think pricing compression
01:00:53
is going to hurt these business a lot if
01:00:55
you pay could pay 50,000 for the same
01:00:57
software instead of 500 you would not
01:00:59
have spun it up yourself so there is a
01:01:01
reasonable number between those two
01:01:02
correct and that reasonable number might
01:01:04
be 250 or something but and here's the
01:01:06
thing that we need to also factor in
01:01:08
which is that free Berg's companies that
01:01:10
engineer could also then just release
01:01:13
that product for everybody else to use
01:01:15
at
01:01:16
10 and everybody else will then use it
01:01:19
because it'll be good enough and that
01:01:21
and that 80% solution will take over the
01:01:24
will take over the market yeah that's my
01:01:25
point there's going to be price and
01:01:26
compression this is the thing like I
01:01:27
think that people underestimate how
01:01:28
deflationary this whole thing is it's
01:01:30
like ex it's it's like two to three
01:01:32
orders of magnitude more deflationary
01:01:34
than people have any inkling of yep
01:01:37
interestingly I had David hanmar Hansen
01:01:39
on this weekend startups and they're
01:01:41
releasing something called on.com where
01:01:43
they're going to charge for software one
01:01:44
time like we used to do and their first
01:01:47
product is a slack killer and so the
01:01:49
idea of paying per seat for slack what
01:01:51
they're planning to do is just charge
01:01:53
you you know
01:01:55
95 no you find a hosting company soost
01:01:59
okay so old school it's old school old
01:02:01
old school on Prem software on Prem and
01:02:04
then you pay you pay an upgrade fee when
01:02:05
you upgrade the software basically I
01:02:07
think they're GNA you're paying them
01:02:09
like a maintenance percentage that's the
01:02:10
way just you guys old school enterprise
01:02:12
software right the pricing model was the
01:02:15
revenue model was always built that when
01:02:16
you did a sale you would make on average
01:02:18
20% of the revenue per year in update
01:02:21
fees and so that and then everything
01:02:24
switch to SAS which just continue
01:02:26
support support maintenance all that
01:02:28
kind of stuff so it's never they say
01:02:29
it's one time it's one time for the
01:02:31
software but if you want to stay up to
01:02:33
dat and get support and patches and all
01:02:36
that kind offf main yeah and the old
01:02:37
school enterprise software model was
01:02:39
always like figure 20% of the install
01:02:42
cost right and by the way this is one of
01:02:44
the reasons why Oracle made so much
01:02:46
money is they did a roll up of all these
01:02:48
old school on-prem software companies
01:02:51
that weren't growing but the maintenance
01:02:53
fees were just rolling in forever Y and
01:02:55
they rolled all that stuff up and then
01:02:57
probably raised the fees I mean for me
01:02:59
you know when you have a 20 person
01:03:00
company 50 person company the slack fees
01:03:02
don't seem like a big deal but when you
01:03:05
get to you know when you're spending
01:03:06
$500,000 or a million dollars a year on
01:03:08
something like slack you know then maybe
01:03:10
you would consider other options and I
01:03:12
know people at large organizations that
01:03:14
have done that because there's an open
01:03:15
source competitor to it so that does
01:03:17
exist in the world okay no but what
01:03:19
freeberg is bringing up is like why
01:03:21
would you support 500,000 to million
01:03:24
doar a year Opex for software I mean can
01:03:28
you really put a model together that
01:03:31
shows that that's somehow a creative to
01:03:33
you especially if you're a money losing
01:03:35
startup it just doesn't make any logical
01:03:37
sense I understand that it happens and
01:03:39
the fact that that software SAS
01:03:41
companies have been able to make 80 to
01:03:42
90% margins and grow on that it has
01:03:45
created the best business model in
01:03:46
history but I think what may become
01:03:48
apparent now is that the SAS business
01:03:50
model is really a temporary phenomenon
01:03:53
that existed between ubiquity of the
01:03:55
internet and the development of AI and
01:03:58
lowc cost low code tools uh for
01:04:00
developing software yeah the D it was an
01:04:02
Arbitrage of the dir of Engineers it was
01:04:04
the gross margin that was correlated to
01:04:06
the lack and now now that the work that
01:04:08
software Engineers could have done has
01:04:10
been automated into software itself you
01:04:13
are going to see a lot of that Arbitrage
01:04:15
say differently free you could say like
01:04:18
the number of Engineers has now
01:04:20
multiplied by a millionfold that's right
01:04:22
and now everyone has them a so then the
01:04:25
gross margins were not going to be 90%
01:04:27
the gross margins maybe 30% right and so
01:04:29
so everything gets competed away and
01:04:31
pricing goes down pricing gets
01:04:32
compressed and that's why this is a big
01:04:33
macro trend for me like I'm and I'm just
01:04:35
seeing it across every company
01:04:36
everyone's rethinking whether or not to
01:04:38
pay the seat fees for all different
01:04:39
types of software tools by the way the
01:04:42
the part of that which is economically
01:04:43
true is if you look at every other
01:04:46
category in the economy and you look at
01:04:48
the gross margin profile of businesses
01:04:50
that are not pure play Tech we have
01:04:53
grown up and we've monetized this belief
01:04:56
that tech companies not only can start
01:04:58
at 80 to 90% but stay there inde
01:05:00
definitely stay there yeah they should
01:05:02
be at 40% not even every other Market
01:05:05
can start off in the 50 60 70% when
01:05:07
they're nent but capitalism competes
01:05:09
away those Market down to 30 to 40%
01:05:12
right and a best-in-class business
01:05:14
generates 20 to 25% ebit margins on a
01:05:17
sustained basis so if you believe that
01:05:20
the average bestr run company is a 35%
01:05:23
gross margin business with 20 to 25%
01:05:25
free cash flow
01:05:26
mergin tech stocks have a long way to go
01:05:29
down exactly exactly software software
01:05:32
companies yeah software companies but if
01:05:34
it's priced below the cost of you
01:05:36
rebuilding it then you're not you're
01:05:38
just it's a buyer Jason the point is the
01:05:41
point is like when somebody does that so
01:05:43
freed BG's company did that work he
01:05:46
doesn't even need to need want to make a
01:05:48
profit from that software to just say
01:05:49
anybody else can use this I have an auto
01:05:52
GPT that will basically configure myself
01:05:56
to you if you want to use it and now
01:05:58
that n plus first company who's starting
01:06:00
up with two or three people can now
01:06:02
raise an order of magnitude less money
01:06:05
and will write a GPT that connects to
01:06:07
his and now has this so this is my point
01:06:10
where like it just it's it's it's just a
01:06:12
race to the bottom y all right last year
01:06:15
for our most anticipated Trend shth and
01:06:18
I both picked austerity feels like that
01:06:21
came to fruition s you picked you're
01:06:24
kidding right we did not see any
01:06:26
austerity we uh added like two trillion
01:06:28
to the debt 34 trillion I was talking
01:06:32
about consumers and and companies and
01:06:34
individuals well consumers didn't didn't
01:06:36
uh cut either I mean they kept spending
01:06:39
and in fact credit card debt is now at
01:06:41
the highest level it's ever been so
01:06:42
where's the
01:06:43
austerity uh I think it's happening
01:06:45
right now where people are maxed out
01:06:48
you're already starting to see it happen
01:06:49
with travel in some of those areas but
01:06:52
uh yeah we could be off by six months on
01:06:53
this one uh sa you said Trump's
01:06:55
influence in the GOP Wes that was
01:06:57
definitely wrong yeah that was fful
01:07:00
thinking freeberg sell genene Wishful
01:07:02
for you Wishful for you too you don't
01:07:06
over and over again you don't want him
01:07:07
as your candidate well I can explain
01:07:09
that I mean at the end of
01:07:11
2022 we had that election That was
01:07:13
supposed to be a red wave and it turned
01:07:14
into a red puddle remember that and re
01:07:17
it was a big loser for the GOP and a lot
01:07:20
of the candidates I'd say in particular
01:07:23
the candidates who had been endorsed and
01:07:25
supported by Trump ended up losing not
01:07:27
doing very well so and then by contrast
01:07:30
it seemed like the one part of the
01:07:31
country where the Republicans done
01:07:33
incredibly well was in Florida where
01:07:36
obvious Des won by like 20 points and
01:07:39
added seats to their majority in the
01:07:41
legislature so it seemed like going into
01:07:43
the year that danis was kind of the ER
01:07:46
apparent and Trump's influence would wne
01:07:49
but like you said that may have been
01:07:50
wishful thinking it's clearly not what's
01:07:52
happened but a big part of the reason
01:07:55
why Trump's influence is greater than
01:07:57
ever is because of all this lawfare all
01:07:59
these indictments against him and this
01:08:02
uh prosecution and persecution of him by
01:08:05
Biden and his minions it's really I
01:08:07
think galvanized the base to support
01:08:09
Trump
01:08:10
freeberg last year you said cell gene
01:08:12
therapy becoming more
01:08:14
mainstream how did that one pan out your
01:08:17
prediction most imp Trend I don't know
01:08:19
about mainstream but I mean we're seeing
01:08:21
we've seen more approvals this year it's
01:08:23
been
01:08:24
good I mean steady steady pace of saw
01:08:27
the CLE cell product come out CLE cell
01:08:28
came to Market yep there's a few more
01:08:30
that got approved so in cell therapy so
01:08:33
it's great yeah we're seeing good
01:08:34
progress there and I I remember there's
01:08:36
like over a thousand in clinicals so
01:08:38
there's this tidal wave coming to Market
01:08:40
soon of cell and Gene therapies that are
01:08:42
going to have a profound effect on a lot
01:08:44
of disease conditions so really exciting
01:08:46
freeberg you want to continue and tell
01:08:48
us what your most anticipated so this
01:08:50
year I'm really excited uh based on the
01:08:51
progress we've seen in 2023
01:08:54
of predictive models AI driven discovery
01:08:58
of Novel molecules materials and methods
01:09:02
of production in
01:09:04
biofarma in chemical
01:09:07
engineering lots of new materials and
01:09:10
new drugs that are actually coming out
01:09:13
of software not coming out of Brute
01:09:16
Force wet lab Discovery processing and
01:09:18
then we're also seeing these really
01:09:19
amazing generative systems on production
01:09:22
processes in chemistry
01:09:24
that are going to unlock all of these
01:09:25
new products and drop costs going back
01:09:27
to the deflationary point not only does
01:09:29
this introduce new products into the
01:09:30
world that are going to benefit Humanity
01:09:32
but it reduces the cost of making them
01:09:34
and reduces the footprint of making them
01:09:36
so there's a lot of great benefit coming
01:09:38
from these predictive modeling tools
01:09:40
that's starting to percolate its way
01:09:41
into these industries so I'm excited
01:09:42
about seeing what comes to Market this
01:09:44
year I'm sure we're going to have a
01:09:45
science Corner at some point this year
01:09:46
that says look at this amazing new thing
01:09:48
that was discovered in software and it
01:09:50
works and it's going to be really cool
01:09:53
okay what do you got jamath for your
01:09:55
most anticipated trend of 2024 what are
01:09:57
you most anticipating Jam I think this
01:09:59
is the most important year for Bitcoin
01:10:01
that has ever
01:10:03
existed we are probably days away from a
01:10:08
series of ETFs being
01:10:11
approved and so this is the moment for
01:10:13
Bitcoin to to use that old term cross
01:10:17
the casm and
01:10:19
really seen mainstream adoption where
01:10:22
our parents and our grand
01:10:24
parents understand what it is can buy it
01:10:29
and then do buy it and I think that if
01:10:32
all of this comes to pass Bitcoin will
01:10:34
be a part of the traditional Financial
01:10:37
lexicon by the end of 2024 so that is my
01:10:40
most anticipated trend of the year what
01:10:42
do you got Sachs for your most Anti
01:10:44
anticipated trend of the Year Sachs
01:10:46
whatam said is a pretty good one I think
01:10:47
there's a version of that same thing in
01:10:49
AI I mean I I it's hard to know exactly
01:10:52
what all the advancements are going to
01:10:53
be be in AI but you know when we look
01:10:56
back on it in 5 or 10 years it's going
01:10:59
to be pretty clear that the exponential
01:11:01
pace of advancement in AI continued and
01:11:05
so I can't say exactly what those
01:11:06
breakthroughs are going to be this year
01:11:08
but they certainly are going to be some
01:11:10
and I think we'll see those Innovations
01:11:13
continue to percolate down to more and
01:11:16
more of the average sort of mainstream
01:11:18
consumer Sachs once again you and I are
01:11:21
sympatico I picked my most anticipated
01:11:24
trend of 2024 as efficiency in the form
01:11:27
of AI advances and Outsourcing basically
01:11:31
a lot of Americans don't want to work or
01:11:32
they want to work from home or they want
01:11:34
High salaries we have record low
01:11:36
unemployment thanks to Biden I'm joking
01:11:40
but all of this is forcing people to
01:11:43
build robots Ai and software to Route
01:11:46
Around you know and make things more
01:11:49
efficient and I think the number one
01:11:51
Trend I'm seeing from startups and they
01:11:53
tend to adopt this stuff early is
01:11:55
outsourcing to all other geographies
01:11:58
around the world for work because it's
01:12:00
so easy Once you have a work from home
01:12:04
philosophy uh or Paradigm at your
01:12:06
company well adding somebody from
01:12:08
Portugal Manila Argentina Canada is the
01:12:11
same as adding somebody from outside of
01:12:13
New York City or Silicon Valley or LA
01:12:15
but you can do so at a third of the
01:12:17
price for somebody maybe
01:12:19
who really wants the work and so I think
01:12:22
efficiency is my most anticipated Trend
01:12:26
but in the form of AI and Outsourcing
01:12:28
okay now media everybody loves when we
01:12:31
do our most anticipated media for
01:12:35
2024 for last year I had Oppenheimer wow
01:12:40
that was great chamath you had Dune part
01:12:42
two that was delayed saak you also had
01:12:44
Oppenheimer what did you think of
01:12:45
Oppenheimer sax who did a deliver for
01:12:47
you have you seen it I thought it was
01:12:50
good not great it was very long and it
01:12:52
kind of went on and on
01:12:53
yeah it's not a movie I need to see a
01:12:55
second time let's put it that way okay
01:12:57
and freeberg you said generative AI
01:12:59
based media for this year I'm I have to
01:13:02
confess I have inside information so my
01:13:05
prediction is going to be the winner it
01:13:09
turns out our favorite
01:13:11
DJ is dropping a new album in
01:13:15
2024 and I got a release track so my
01:13:17
most anticipated media I'll just play
01:13:20
the the unreleased track here what is
01:13:23
this according to NASA there's a new
01:13:24
look at
01:13:26
Uranus
01:13:28
Uranus
01:13:31
Uranus talk about
01:13:33
myus
01:13:35
Uranus Uranus is this young Spielberg
01:13:38
this is Young
01:13:40
Spielberg coming at you the Summer Jam
01:13:42
of the Year
01:13:45
Urus how was your it's a
01:13:49
banger well there it is talk about myus
01:13:52
coming at you Banger he obviously likes
01:13:54
the Deep base of my voice he does like
01:13:57
the Deep base of your voice in his in
01:13:59
yes so that's a banger that's going to
01:14:01
be I think the that's gonna carry that's
01:14:03
gonna be the summer Anthem the new album
01:14:06
from Young Spiel book dropping that's
01:14:07
the lead title track your anus coming at
01:14:10
you I also am looking forward to
01:14:12
Gladiator too is coming out really Scott
01:14:15
Lucius the nephew of commos is a grown
01:14:17
man it's going to be awesome I hope and
01:14:19
Netflix's three body problem if you
01:14:21
haven't read the books they're great and
01:14:23
that's being done by The Game of Thrones
01:14:25
guys that's gonna come out March and
01:14:28
that's gonna be
01:14:29
awesome D and D anyway three body
01:14:32
problem Gladiator once the books ran out
01:14:35
they were kind of yeah they were kind of
01:14:37
on their own there and the show kind of
01:14:39
declined it was a terrible last season
01:14:42
in this case the three body problem is a
01:14:44
complete series and it's it's
01:14:45
mind-blowing in terms of its epicness SX
01:14:48
what's your most anticipated media of
01:14:50
2024 is there a Putin biography coming
01:14:53
out is it Alex Jones's biography 10p
01:14:56
part series on Netflix what do you got
01:14:58
what are you looking forward to well I I
01:15:01
agree with you about Gladiator 2 we
01:15:02
actually have similar taste in in movies
01:15:04
I'm also looking forward to House of the
01:15:05
Dragon season 2 oh yes but one project I
01:15:09
will give a little plug to is Jimmy
01:15:11
Sony's book the founders which is the
01:15:14
story of PayPal and the entrepreneurs
01:15:16
who shaped Sil Valley that came out in
01:15:18
2022 the reason I'm mentioning it is
01:15:21
because I optioned this book along with
01:15:24
Jack Selby who's another PayPal Mafia
01:15:26
Alum who has a film company and so we've
01:15:30
optioned this and we have just made a
01:15:31
deal with Drake's company called dream
01:15:33
crew to turn this into some sort of
01:15:36
television series could be done as a
01:15:38
docu wait did you say Drake the musician
01:15:40
Drake yeah he actually has a very
01:15:42
successful production company called
01:15:44
dream crew they're the producers of
01:15:46
euphoria which is this huge hit oh sure
01:15:48
on HBO terrifying so they've decided to
01:15:51
it is kind of a terrifying show if you
01:15:53
have kids it's terrifying it is
01:15:55
terrifying incred show terrifying it's
01:15:57
an incredible show but terrifying and
01:15:59
yeah it is scary any event it's a big
01:16:01
hit so they've produced a lot of not
01:16:04
just music but television content
01:16:07
they're very interested in the story and
01:16:09
so we're partnering with them to create
01:16:10
a TV show so hopefully that comes
01:16:12
together this year are you in production
01:16:14
this year on it or is it no it's going
01:16:15
into development this year then
01:16:16
hopefully you get an EP credit sex yeah
01:16:20
how much does it cost for the rest of us
01:16:21
to get EP credits 50 50 Grand
01:16:25
yeah is it a 50 grander or is a little
01:16:29
this is this is uh this is gonna be an
01:16:31
expensive one oh really well who's your
01:16:33
dream is it HBO is a dream or Netflix
01:16:36
yeah who or Netflix ultimately a studio
01:16:38
would make this right you would want HBO
01:16:40
or Netflix I take it those are the top
01:16:42
two in terms of making high quality
01:16:44
stuff they would be really good yeah it
01:16:45
doesn't have to those two but they would
01:16:46
be good it could be Amazon Prime I mean
01:16:48
there's a lot of these and who are you
01:16:49
hoping plays a young sack who would play
01:16:52
a Young
01:16:54
good question that's good question who
01:16:56
would play a Young David saaks what's
01:16:59
the name of the guy that's dating Zena
01:17:01
what's what's his name Tom Holland how
01:17:03
about that Tom Holland oh Peter Parker
01:17:05
Peter Parker yeah how about Millie Bobby
01:17:08
Brown for you only one guy can play a
01:17:10
young sex that it would be Ryan gos well
01:17:12
you guys are really shooting the moon
01:17:13
with
01:17:15
this Tom Holland's interesting J K's
01:17:18
busy on the internet right now he's
01:17:18
gonna give no I'm looking I'm looking on
01:17:20
the internet for a young actor to play
01:17:22
USX well well let the audience come back
01:17:24
to that let the audience decide who
01:17:26
plays a young sax yeah chath you looking
01:17:28
forward to anything in in uh media in
01:17:30
2024 did you have anything for us to uh
01:17:33
look out for Jimmy Donaldson Mr Beast
01:17:35
added a 100 million subscribers on
01:17:37
YouTube in
01:17:39
2023 more than two times the next
01:17:42
largest channel and if you watch his
01:17:45
content Mr Beast channel it's
01:17:49
incredible and that has become event
01:17:52
based viewing now for hundreds of
01:17:54
millions of people so I am really
01:17:57
excited to see what production value
01:17:59
gets cranked out in 2024 from these guys
01:18:01
but my that's my most anticipated media
01:18:04
is uh is Mr Beast and
01:18:06
Freebird you anything you're looking
01:18:08
forward to in the media space in
01:18:11
2024 I mean I put AI generated news
01:18:15
which I think has become like an
01:18:17
interesting have you guys seen these
01:18:18
where there's like a broadcaster that
01:18:20
just tells you the news and they're like
01:18:21
naked I haven't seen that no that was
01:18:24
the thing in the early days of the
01:18:26
internet right wasn't there like naked
01:18:27
news or something no that was like a
01:18:29
meme from Naked News it was like naked
01:18:32
news where like these people would be
01:18:33
like in
01:18:35
in the process of undressing as they as
01:18:38
they like read the news it was so stupid
01:18:40
Oh really it was really dumb but I it
01:18:42
did capture people's imagination Naked
01:18:45
News you could basically watch
01:18:46
newscasters n could read the news I do
01:18:48
think you're going to see a lot of this
01:18:49
real time generative video that's going
01:18:51
to take as a it's input uh news feeds
01:18:55
and develop some understanding and then
01:18:57
present it back to you in whatever
01:18:59
visual format you want and so you'll
01:19:01
have your own personal newscaster
01:19:03
presenting you the stuff that's
01:19:04
interesting and be like no no no tell me
01:19:05
less about the Middle East tell me more
01:19:07
about Wall Street tell me more about
01:19:08
tech and you can basically interact with
01:19:10
it and curate your own personal Newsfeed
01:19:13
whether that's through video or through
01:19:14
text or through audio you can have it
01:19:16
presented to you any way you want so I'm
01:19:18
really excited for the DAT that happen
01:19:20
so I don't have to Doom scroll through
01:19:21
Twitter all the time to get news and I
01:19:23
can have you know a personally currated
01:19:25
news caster to your
01:19:27
point one of the things that one of the
01:19:30
tasks that I had this year was to kind
01:19:31
of like take a model and learn how to
01:19:33
fine-tune it and sunny and I we took uh
01:19:36
stable diffusion and there's a mod to it
01:19:39
called Juggernaut XL which basically
01:19:42
produces no the most beautiful people
01:19:43
you've ever seen like under any boundary
01:19:46
condition it doesn't matter what prompt
01:19:47
you give handsome the people that it
01:19:49
generates are the most stunningly
01:19:51
symmetrically beautiful beautiful people
01:19:54
and all it's going to take to your point
01:19:56
is just just put this stuff together
01:19:58
next year and you'll have these people
01:20:01
that capture your attention and can keep
01:20:02
your attention and they'll tell you the
01:20:04
news or whatever and you can just say
01:20:06
skip you can say tell me more you can
01:20:08
say go back you can say hey I want to
01:20:10
hear more like double click on that
01:20:11
story and interact with it it's going to
01:20:13
be incredible I do think it's it's going
01:20:15
to happen in 2024 where a series of
01:20:17
products will come out that start to
01:20:18
look like this and it'll get in
01:20:21
terms if that as they're telling the
01:20:23
news you can have another agent that's
01:20:25
basically scoring it and telling you how
01:20:27
biased it is yeah by the way I'll tell
01:20:30
you a crazy story yesterday after Jason
01:20:33
Jason took Nat and I out yesterday we
01:20:35
had an epic day it was incredible fun
01:20:37
good times I was totally gassed skiing
01:20:41
and so I took a nap and I fell asleep
01:20:42
for like 40 minutes and I woke up and I
01:20:45
turned on the TV and I watched
01:20:47
CNN for 20 minutes have you guys watched
01:20:50
CNN I can't watch more than a minute it
01:20:52
is so bad it is for stupid all Network
01:20:55
news yeah all Network new it's really
01:20:57
bad Jason like how biased it is and just
01:21:00
how inaccurate it is if you were to
01:21:03
watch it for an hour a day you would
01:21:05
have this totally lopsided view of
01:21:07
what's going on in the world that is
01:21:08
completely not accurate but here's my
01:21:10
here's my point there's nobody
01:21:11
factchecking CNN just like there's
01:21:12
nobody really factchecking Fox News but
01:21:14
my thought is these models and these AI
01:21:16
tools should be the thing that presents
01:21:18
objective news and then actually just
01:21:20
tells the truth I disagree I think what
01:21:22
will happen is people will bias this the
01:21:24
the delivery to what they want to hear
01:21:26
and you'll end up having something
01:21:28
that's going to become more of an echo
01:21:29
chamber for you I want to hear more
01:21:31
about how X Y or Z is so great I want to
01:21:33
hear less about the stuff that I don't
01:21:34
agree with and you're going to curate
01:21:36
your news to exactly what's happened
01:21:37
with social media so I don't know if
01:21:39
that's necessarily how this will evolve
01:21:40
CH because people don't like to hear
01:21:42
what they don't believe or what they
01:21:43
don't already know you mean they don't
01:21:44
want to hear the truth yeah they want to
01:21:46
hear the truth that speaks to them their
01:21:49
version of the truth they want to be
01:21:50
emotionally titilated you know it's
01:21:52
about time might let you guys know that
01:21:54
we ran an experiment right now chth and
01:21:56
freeberg I did this with Sax's
01:21:58
permission but Sax's participation here
01:22:00
today was actually his AI this is an AI
01:22:03
version of Sachs that we programmed AI
01:22:05
Sachs can you reveal yourself and and
01:22:08
what training data went into this
01:22:10
version of AI saxs can you can you give
01:22:12
us something about your training data AI
01:22:14
saxs what training data was used if this
01:22:17
is a bit you want to do you're going to
01:22:18
have to give me more of a heads up I
01:22:20
mean
01:22:21
I'm would be hilarious though if we
01:22:23
actually trained like a sax model and we
01:22:26
had him come on and we tried to fool the
01:22:28
audience can we just do a quick round
01:22:29
table if you guys were to summarize your
01:22:32
in one word or two words your emotional
01:22:35
condition for 2024 what would it be like
01:22:37
how are you feeling going in 2024 sex oh
01:22:40
I feel fine but if I were to describe 24
01:22:42
in one word I would say the year is
01:22:44
going to be turbulent turbulent but I
01:22:47
feel I feel level that's not me but I
01:22:49
feel like the world's going to be very
01:22:51
turbulent um jcal kind of exhilarated
01:22:56
enthusiastic about 2024 it feels like a
01:22:59
lot of the cleanup work you know that we
01:23:02
had to do in
01:23:04
2023 2022 like I feel like a lot of
01:23:07
that's we we've work through it and uh
01:23:10
I'm finding a lot of optimistic so I
01:23:12
guess I would be you know enthusiastic
01:23:14
and optimistic about 2024 I'm really
01:23:16
excited to go to work and create I want
01:23:19
to create some new things in 2024 I feel
01:23:21
very creative creative yeah yeah
01:23:23
creative I would say cautious and
01:23:25
pensive I think that just a lot of stuff
01:23:30
is changing
01:23:32
underfoot and I'm
01:23:35
personally not excited to make a bunch
01:23:37
of decisions because I worry that those
01:23:40
decisions will have to be remade or
01:23:43
unmade even nine or 10 months later so I
01:23:47
I'm just kind of like
01:23:51
very pensive I'm like wow a lot of stuff
01:23:54
can change will
01:23:56
change even just like you know and then
01:23:58
freeberg knows this but like you know
01:23:59
there's like some deals underfoot that
01:24:01
like I think for the industry as a like
01:24:03
as a whole are just really meaningful
01:24:05
things and so to do stuff right now
01:24:07
freeberg makes me very anxious so right
01:24:10
I'm really cautious and and pensive
01:24:13
right where are you at
01:24:15
freeberg I'm excited I'm enjoying my new
01:24:18
job as CEO at ohol there's so much cool
01:24:20
stuff happening I'm personally excited
01:24:21
about it so this is the most excited
01:24:23
I've felt in many years in terms of my
01:24:26
my work and then I would and I'm really
01:24:28
excited to share what we've done next
01:24:29
year which or earlier this year which
01:24:31
I'll do I'll do it on the show first
01:24:33
obviously and then looking outside of
01:24:34
the world I'm just a little cautious I'm
01:24:37
a little nervous I think there's a like
01:24:39
there's still a lot of Tinder boxes out
01:24:40
there
01:24:41
so I mean you guys know like we joke
01:24:44
about it but I do think there's these
01:24:45
like little mouth traps that can get set
01:24:47
off and then they set off all the other
01:24:49
mouse traps so there's a couple of those
01:24:51
things out there that I'm a little
01:24:51
nervous about but in the course of
01:24:53
history aren't there always conflicts in
01:24:55
the world and like do you try to like
01:24:57
put them on a spectrum of like there's
01:24:58
always going to be conflict there's
01:25:00
always going to be there's never been
01:25:01
this much debt in the world and that's
01:25:02
what makes me so nervous I think yeah no
01:25:05
and I think they're related so actual
01:25:07
conflict relates to the debt
01:25:09
load and that's why I'm so nervous
01:25:11
because we've never been you can't keep
01:25:13
your societal fabric together if you
01:25:16
have a lot of debt and you can't grow
01:25:18
your economy those are two that's a
01:25:20
simple fact and so leads naturally to
01:25:23
finding points of conflict with other
01:25:25
nations and other places because you
01:25:28
know you look for conflict elsewhere
01:25:30
there's a good chance that will the
01:25:33
Republicans will force some momentary
01:25:35
temporary budget cuts in this next yeah
01:25:38
coule shut down yeah a couple weeks 17
01:25:41
two week two weeks away yeah yeah it's
01:25:42
pretty interesting under the terms of
01:25:44
the debt ciling increase that they
01:25:46
agreed to last year they're supposed to
01:25:49
all agree on a new budget and if they
01:25:51
don't then there's a 1% cut across the
01:25:54
board on discretionary spending that
01:25:55
goes into effect right if I were the
01:25:58
Republicans why agree to a deal you're
01:26:00
never going to do better than a 1% cut
01:26:02
in discretionary spending if you care
01:26:04
about austerity or just having any kind
01:26:07
of Reason in our spending just take the
01:26:09
1% cut just don't agree to anything
01:26:12
agreed that's the most likely path right
01:26:14
at this point I hope so and you know 1%
01:26:16
cut cut is a rounding ER but the um
01:26:18
Washington Elite are going to shriek
01:26:20
like crazy over that I mean they're
01:26:21
gonna yeah squeal over this minuscule
01:26:24
cut like we were slashing their budgets
01:26:27
right but that's all do it I think yeah
01:26:30
exactly they're cutting their fingernail
01:26:32
and they're crying it's like just clip
01:26:34
your toil to they're gonna act like we
01:26:36
cut off their arm when they got like a
01:26:37
fingernail clip yeah it's nothing all
01:26:40
right I gotta run all right everybody
01:26:42
what an amazing 2023 we had here's to a
01:26:44
great 2024 you got your prediction show
01:26:46
and we'll be back with more news and a
01:26:48
and a classic all-in episode next week
01:26:51
have a great New Year and we wish you
01:26:54
all the best in 2024 love you boys back
01:26:56
at you
01:26:58
byebye let your winners
01:27:01
ride Rainman
01:27:05
David and instead we open source it to
01:27:08
the fans and they've just gone crazy
01:27:09
with it queen
01:27:12
[Music]
01:27:18
of Besties
01:27:21
are my dog take it your
01:27:26
driveway oh man myit will meet me at we
01:27:29
should all just get a room and just have
01:27:31
one big huge orgy cuz they're all this
01:27:33
useless it's like this like sexual
01:27:34
tension that they just need to release
01:27:36
somehow
01:27:42
what we need to get
01:27:47
[Music]
01:27:51
mer I'm going all
01:27:54
[Music]
01:27:56
in
