00:00:00
welcome back to the all-in podcast
00:00:01
everybody I'm your host Jason calacanis
00:00:03
I'll put in a bunch of plugs for the
00:00:05
projects I'm working on throughout the
00:00:06
show to annoy my co-hosts and continue
00:00:09
the grift but it is
00:00:10
2025 and we are doing our bestie Awards
00:00:14
it's going to be amazing today we've got
00:00:16
so much to do today with us again for
00:00:18
the second time a truly amazing bestie
00:00:21
Gavin Baker from at trees Capital am I
00:00:24
correct is it a treaty Capital you put
00:00:26
management tradies management oh a tradi
00:00:29
management
00:00:30
okay and uh just call it House of
00:00:32
treaties oh no let's not get him in
00:00:34
trouble I
00:00:36
P Gavin welcome back to the program let
00:00:39
us know um just briefly what does a
00:00:41
treaties do thanks for having me here
00:00:43
Jason
00:00:45
chamama and Dave a tradies we're a we're
00:00:48
crossover firm we invest publicly and
00:00:50
privately in consumer and Tech and we go
00:00:53
from series a to Mega cap got it okay so
00:00:56
you are a capital allocator you're place
00:00:58
bets on technology on the most important
00:01:01
new companies in the world we'll get
00:01:03
into that and this is our prediction
00:01:04
show we did our besti Awards how big is
00:01:07
your firm Gavin oh well you just met the
00:01:10
guy free brg you don't just ask him how
00:01:11
big his firm is the audience wants to
00:01:13
know is this guy a player like what's
00:01:15
the deal roughly $4 billion okay all
00:01:19
right so that's about a half an inch
00:01:21
bigger than shth he's really worried
00:01:24
now's not that he's the size queen or
00:01:27
anything let your winners ride
00:01:31
Rainman
00:01:34
David and instead we open sources to the
00:01:37
fans and they've just gone crazy
00:01:39
[Music]
00:01:42
with we're going to do a really great
00:01:45
prediction show today and we're going to
00:01:47
do some super predictions this year each
00:01:49
bestie gets to make a super prediction
00:01:50
or two during the show and we're going
00:01:53
to take those super predictions shamal
00:01:55
and we're going to put them on poly
00:01:57
Market yes that's right if you don't
00:01:59
know polyk Market there a prediction
00:02:01
Market where people can place a wager a
00:02:05
bet an investment in one or the other
00:02:07
side and uh they're p is my image good
00:02:09
it feels like it's
00:02:11
blurry it's a little blurry that's the
00:02:13
Avalanche coming and so I guess is that
00:02:15
the Maga Avalanche what is this
00:02:17
Avalanche is that people screaming
00:02:18
across the border what's the metaphor
00:02:20
here TR up is that the huge orgasm uh
00:02:23
that you're about to lay down in 2025
00:02:27
rocking my friend no no this is a shout
00:02:29
out to my friend Ruben Oland who's the
00:02:31
director of a bunch of really amazing
00:02:34
movies um including the one behind me
00:02:37
Force measure there you go all right we
00:02:39
did an amazing partnership with poly
00:02:41
Market freeberg you want to detail the
00:02:43
partnership and some way you I think you
00:02:44
helped work on it well we obviously have
00:02:46
talked to Shane at Poly market for some
00:02:48
time and we set up a a deal with them
00:02:51
where we could put our own markets up on
00:02:52
the on the site so we're going to talk
00:02:55
about a couple of our predictions this
00:02:56
year and then poly Market will post them
00:02:59
up on
00:03:00
on their site and people can can trade
00:03:02
them obviously xus and we're really
00:03:05
excited about it because it'll allow us
00:03:07
to kind of track how we're doing and
00:03:09
give us the opportunity on an ongoing
00:03:10
basis to create market so there'll be an
00:03:12
all-in section on poly Market where you
00:03:13
can kind of go in and see the all-in
00:03:15
market it's going to be really cool
00:03:16
awesome
00:03:18
fantastic and so uh we just got we're
00:03:21
all wrapping up our our uh ski trip here
00:03:23
Nick I understand there was some footage
00:03:25
some found footage from the bestie
00:03:27
skiing is that true
00:03:30
oh here we go look at this here I come
00:03:32
down the mountain Gavin I want you to
00:03:34
rate everybody skiing here I come
00:03:36
looking great there comes looking good
00:03:40
and then Here Comes somebody I think the
00:03:43
technical term Joe Lonsdale does for
00:03:45
that third person is a beep beep okay
00:03:48
here we go and look at this technique
00:03:50
coming down look at
00:03:52
chamama chamat you really Advanced since
00:03:55
last season look at him cutting those S
00:03:56
turns Gavin what do you think listen to
00:03:59
me I I made a very strategic decision to
00:04:03
stop snowboarding so I could learn to
00:04:05
ski with my kids it is so hard to learn
00:04:08
how to do something in your 40s no I
00:04:10
mean if you've never done it but I do
00:04:11
appreciate what you and your brother did
00:04:12
for me last season I learned a couple
00:04:14
things so it's been my thir there with
00:04:16
the black bomber my third season it was
00:04:18
great I am absolutely amazed at the
00:04:21
progress you're making freeberg I'm
00:04:22
amazed you made it onto the mountain you
00:04:25
you were out there a number of days
00:04:26
you're getting it done I needed new boot
00:04:29
and I tore my MCL last season so I'm in
00:04:32
it got really tweaked when I went out
00:04:33
there but I'm good it was great I had a
00:04:35
lot of fun I mean I four days yeah you
00:04:37
ski four days okay I finished my 16th
00:04:39
day yesterday but I took today off just
00:04:41
to get prepared here yeah I got 16 I do
00:04:43
the executive program Gavin I go off for
00:04:45
an hour and a half to three hours Zip
00:04:47
Zip Zip 10 runs and I'm done I only ski
00:04:49
in the morning yeah that's the way to do
00:04:51
same same same and and at 1215 have
00:04:54
lunch relax get a little work done need
00:04:57
a healthy healthy mix of AA ski and ski
00:05:00
Gavin how would you compare yourself to
00:05:02
what you just witnessed in that video
00:05:04
your skiing ability where would you rank
00:05:06
yourself clearly it's me chamath
00:05:08
freeberg in that ranking where would you
00:05:10
land in the ranking I well I would say
00:05:13
i' make two observations first like I'm
00:05:15
in the bottom percentile in terms of
00:05:16
natural athleticism but I do have many
00:05:19
many thousands of hours skiing great
00:05:23
okay and I would just leave I would just
00:05:24
leave that yes well then we'll be going
00:05:28
out with you next year new best
00:05:31
all right we got to get to it we're
00:05:33
going to start off with politics
00:05:35
gentlemen we got to keep this moving
00:05:36
because there's so many predictions
00:05:38
we're going to do our 2025 prediction
00:05:40
for biggest political winner now last
00:05:42
year well yeah I think we we got it kind
00:05:44
of wrong freedberg you said independent
00:05:47
third party in the US and we did see
00:05:49
some of that with you know the breakout
00:05:52
of Robert Kennedy maybe chamat you said
00:05:55
independent Centrist we didn't get there
00:05:57
with that one and I said Darkhorse
00:05:59
presidential candidates maybe I get a
00:06:01
quarter Point Credit there with wait
00:06:02
hold on what do you mean we didn't get
00:06:03
there independent centrists won the
00:06:05
election for mean independent Centrist
00:06:08
won the election really that's what you
00:06:09
believe yeah okay I didn't think that it
00:06:12
was the Independence but okay I think
00:06:13
independent Centrist swung the election
00:06:15
for Biden in
00:06:17
2020 and then I think they swung the
00:06:20
election for Trump in 2024 huh is that
00:06:23
statistically correct you think freeberg
00:06:25
you about that independent centrus did
00:06:27
the election or Gavin what do you think
00:06:29
I think it's right like I think a lot of
00:06:32
there were a lot of people not just
00:06:33
cists but a lot of people who had been
00:06:35
lifelong Democratic voters who voted for
00:06:39
Trump so I do think Trump won the cists
00:06:42
I mean Trump trump won
00:06:45
everything essentially yeah okay shabat
00:06:48
who's your prediction for the biggest
00:06:49
political winner of 2025 my biggest
00:06:51
political winner for 2025 are fiscal
00:06:56
conservatives I think that we are going
00:06:59
to Ted a very important Concept in
00:07:03
2025 and I hope it works which is that
00:07:06
of
00:07:07
austerity and the reason why austerity
00:07:09
has to work is that the only thing left
00:07:11
after austerity is to cut
00:07:13
entitlements and I think that in doing
00:07:17
this we are going to figure out how much
00:07:19
waste Fraud and Abuse exists in the
00:07:22
United States federal government I think
00:07:25
that that's going to spill over to a lot
00:07:27
of State elections
00:07:30
and I think that the fiscal
00:07:31
conservatives that have been clamoring
00:07:33
for a more restrained approach to
00:07:37
spending will have their Day in 2025
00:07:40
okay fiscal conservatives from schoth
00:07:42
freeberg who's your prediction for the
00:07:44
biggest political winner of 2025 I also
00:07:47
took a a class-based approach I chose
00:07:50
young candidates so Trump cabinet picks
00:07:54
have an average age of 40 to 45 years
00:07:57
old compared to the Biden cabinet the
00:07:59
average age is a little over 59 almost
00:08:02
60 years old and I do think that this
00:08:04
marks the beginning of a new trend in
00:08:07
the kind of age range of political
00:08:09
candidates shifting younger so I think
00:08:12
that this is something we should expect
00:08:14
as candidates start to emerge for the
00:08:15
midterms by the end of 2025 we'll start
00:08:18
to see younger new names start to pop up
00:08:21
that deliver resident messages and
00:08:23
aren't part of kind of the Old Guard of
00:08:26
you know the Aging political class so I
00:08:28
think that's a trend kind of underway
00:08:30
now excellent young candidates so we got
00:08:32
fiscal conservatives young candidates
00:08:33
Gavin what do you got for the 2025
00:08:35
prediction for biggest political winner
00:08:37
I would say Trump and centrism for my
00:08:40
choice for 202's biggest political
00:08:41
winner I went with something similar to
00:08:44
you freedberg I said Gen X and the Elder
00:08:48
Millennials if you look at the notable
00:08:50
Gen X appointments you got Elon with do
00:08:52
you got saxs obviously Marco Rubio my
00:08:56
God it just goes down and then if you
00:08:57
look at the Elder Millennials JD Vance V
00:08:59
fake Tuli just a lot of young people and
00:09:03
this is going to be absolutely fantastic
00:09:05
I think because they're going to start
00:09:06
thinking not just about themselves uh as
00:09:09
the boomers are doing with Social
00:09:11
Security taxes real estate all the
00:09:13
different issues that they tend to pick
00:09:15
for themselves they're going to start
00:09:16
thinking about maybe their own kids and
00:09:18
themselves so yeah it's obviously a sea
00:09:20
change is underway so they have a folks
00:09:23
for our predictions for political winner
00:09:26
let's go with political loser here
00:09:27
prediction for political loser we start
00:09:29
off with You Gavin we'll do this a
00:09:30
little round robin here we'll snake it
00:09:32
around Gavin what do you think who'll be
00:09:34
the biggest political loser of
00:09:36
2025 I think Putin I think Putin is
00:09:39
going to lose bigly um so if you are
00:09:44
xiin ping you know xim Russia is a
00:09:47
client state of China at this point and
00:09:50
if you're xiin ping what is happening is
00:09:53
now a disaster for you because Europe is
00:09:55
starting to rearm and which is which
00:09:57
will only accelerate this year
00:10:01
that will allow America to take
00:10:02
resources out of Europe and put them in
00:10:05
uh Japan and South
00:10:07
Korea and all over the Pacific and that
00:10:10
makes it a lot harder for you to do what
00:10:12
you most want to do which
00:10:14
is reunify um China and Taiwan or invade
00:10:18
Taiwan uh let's call it what it is and I
00:10:21
just think X is going to begin
00:10:24
decoupling from Putin if you're Trump
00:10:27
you want to show that you're independent
00:10:30
that you're not um inthrall to Putin in
00:10:33
any way so I think Trump is going to be
00:10:35
a lot tougher on Putin than people think
00:10:39
and I think he's going to get a very
00:10:42
very uh a deal that's very very bad for
00:10:45
Russia and Ukraine and you know you've
00:10:47
lost half a million people and for what
00:10:51
for what exactly yeah and it's a
00:10:53
thousand over a thousand days into this
00:10:55
nobody from the West H you know in the
00:10:58
NATO or America no no soldiers have lost
00:11:01
their lives from our side we've just
00:11:03
given them weapons and so it's a
00:11:04
humiliating defeat so far for Putin I
00:11:06
agree with you freeberg your prediction
00:11:08
for the biggest political loser of 2025
00:11:11
friberg's prediction I'm gonna predict
00:11:13
the proar neocons who are going to go
00:11:17
head-to-head with the JD Vance and Elon
00:11:21
and others of the world and I think that
00:11:23
they're going to lose and I think that
00:11:24
there's going to be this kind of big
00:11:26
crack in the establishment of this this
00:11:28
neocon
00:11:30
movement that's been very Pro conflict
00:11:32
around the world and we've heard it in
00:11:34
the speeches and in the commentary from
00:11:36
JD and others and I think this is going
00:11:38
to be the year it's all gonna kind of
00:11:39
come to a head I think they're gonna end
00:11:41
up on the losing side can iav can I take
00:11:44
the other side just just a little bit so
00:11:46
I think that's why you're here yeah yeah
00:11:48
I think it's right in reality but I
00:11:51
think you know Trump said something very
00:11:52
interesting about John Bolton he said
00:11:54
the guy was absolutely crazy but it was
00:11:57
awesome having him in the room when you
00:11:58
negoti deals people looked at this guy
00:12:01
looking angry red in the face so excited
00:12:04
to hit the nuclear button so excited to
00:12:06
go to war and you ended up with much
00:12:08
better deals so I think you're going to
00:12:10
see probably a lot more bellicosity from
00:12:12
the Trump Administration than anyone
00:12:14
expects and that's just to get a good
00:12:17
deal for you know between Russia and
00:12:19
Ukraine and then it's to get China to
00:12:21
kind of decouple from Russia so I think
00:12:24
the um in reality I think you're right
00:12:26
David but I think there will be a lot of
00:12:28
rhetoric that is at odds with what
00:12:30
you're saying before you end up being
00:12:32
right we already see it with Canada with
00:12:35
NATO with Taiwan there's a lot you know
00:12:37
we're gonna do this or this the tariffs
00:12:40
obviously there's just a lot of very
00:12:42
aggressive posturing leading up to the
00:12:44
negotiations that are hopefully going to
00:12:46
get the US good deals we'll see shamat
00:12:49
you have a prediction for your 2025
00:12:51
biggest political loser predictions hard
00:12:53
to do the uh biggest political loser of
00:12:56
2025 is going to be progress iism so
00:13:01
November of last year right after the
00:13:03
election I flew to London and went up to
00:13:06
Oxford and I spoke at the Oxford Union
00:13:08
and very impressive my speech was a
00:13:10
full-throated defense of
00:13:13
Maga but it was mostly an explanation of
00:13:16
Maga and it was sort of
00:13:21
the antidote to Progressive instincts
00:13:25
that had been riddling the Western G8
00:13:28
countries and was starting to basically
00:13:30
come on gun and when you look at what's
00:13:33
about to happen in 2025 in Canada Justin
00:13:36
Trudeau is going to lose massively to
00:13:38
Pier
00:13:40
POV in Germany afd looks like they will
00:13:43
win in France if there's a deadlock and
00:13:46
it goes into an election more than
00:13:48
likely Marine Leen is going to win and
00:13:50
then in the UK where you see this
00:13:53
unfolding child rape scandal where
00:13:56
allegedly upwards of hundreds of
00:13:58
thousands of young girls over the course
00:14:00
of 20 plus years were being raped by
00:14:03
organizations of Pakistani Muslim men
00:14:06
who were then not
00:14:08
prosecuted for Fears of stoking
00:14:12
islamophobia as it turns out by the
00:14:15
current prime minister Kier
00:14:16
starmer and if all of that comes to pass
00:14:19
in the UK I think you're going to see
00:14:21
the labor government fall and I think
00:14:23
you're going to see Nigel farage win so
00:14:25
what do all of these countries look like
00:14:29
like by the end of
00:14:31
25 it's very much a repudiation of this
00:14:34
class-based identity politics and I
00:14:37
think that has enormous Ripple effects
00:14:39
all throughout the world and so I think
00:14:41
the biggest political loser for 2025 I
00:14:43
think stands to be progressivism quote
00:14:45
unquote what they what we labeled
00:14:48
progressivism I I took something very
00:14:50
similar I said the racist vocal minority
00:14:53
of each one of these parties and there's
00:14:56
a little bit of this on either side you
00:14:58
have Dei on one side and then you just
00:15:00
have outright racism on the other side
00:15:03
and it's probably 5% of Maga and 5% of
00:15:05
the left and just to recap last year's
00:15:07
political predictions for 2024 our
00:15:09
predictions for political loser was I
00:15:11
said Netanyahu freeberg you said Ukraine
00:15:14
and shath you said the coke family the
00:15:16
GOP nailed that one I nailed that one
00:15:19
freeberg any thoughts on last year's or
00:15:22
anything on the Republican side more
00:15:24
than the Koch family do you think I mean
00:15:26
explain for the audience who maybe
00:15:28
aren't as into it well I think
00:15:31
essentially 2024 was the end of the
00:15:33
Republican party as we knew it and I
00:15:37
think what stands in its place is what I
00:15:39
would call the Maga reflection of a
00:15:42
coalition of people that will be housed
00:15:45
under the label of republicanism which
00:15:49
is to say that these folks aren't
00:15:50
necessarily Republicans these folks are
00:15:53
believers of the Maga philosophy they're
00:15:55
just using the Republican vessel in
00:15:57
order to run their candidates and get
00:16:00
elected and in that overturning of the
00:16:03
status quo what you had was this one
00:16:06
family who was at the center for the
00:16:09
last few Decades of political
00:16:12
Machinery that essentially decided
00:16:15
candidates that it decided agenda that
00:16:17
it decided policy and that was the coch
00:16:19
family and they spent an enormous amount
00:16:20
of money to get
00:16:22
that which they stood up frankly
00:16:25
literally the day after citizens united
00:16:27
happened in the Supreme Court and I
00:16:29
think that in that
00:16:31
lens those billions of dollars of
00:16:33
investment have essentially gone to zero
00:16:35
because I don't think it means much of
00:16:37
anything anymore and if you look at the
00:16:39
new class of donors who will
00:16:42
decide quote unquote Republican policy
00:16:45
it's going to be the the muriam Adon of
00:16:48
the world the Elon musks of the world
00:16:50
and that's very different than how I
00:16:52
think the cokes used to decide things do
00:16:54
you think there's too much money in
00:16:55
politics now Gavin do I think there's
00:16:58
too much money in politics now
00:17:04
um it's it's a good
00:17:08
question you know I might feel very very
00:17:11
differently if I didn't agree so
00:17:13
profoundly with with the largest owner
00:17:15
in this political cycle
00:17:17
yeah I I would say the reality is is
00:17:21
like the the the money as long as the
00:17:24
money raised on each side is roughly
00:17:27
equivalent I don't think it really
00:17:29
matters that would that would be my take
00:17:32
you just want some equivalence that's
00:17:34
all all right let's do our 2025
00:17:36
predictions for biggest business winner
00:17:38
freeberg why don't you start us off
00:17:40
biggest business winner for 2025 what's
00:17:42
your prediction so I feel like we're at
00:17:45
a really interesting inflection
00:17:48
point that is going to make 2025 the
00:17:51
year of autonomous Hardware or robotics
00:17:55
if 2024 was the year of kind of compute
00:17:58
build out and the roll out of AI systems
00:18:01
in software I think 2025 will be the
00:18:03
year of the
00:18:05
robot you know there's a company I we
00:18:07
just placed an order today actually out
00:18:10
of China called
00:18:12
unry Gavin have you looked at this
00:18:14
company yeah it's pretty wild actually
00:18:17
it's an incredible business incredible
00:18:20
product so their go2 robot is $1600 has
00:18:23
an API here it is you can run a payload
00:18:26
on it it's got lar on it it's got kind
00:18:28
of intelligence guidance systems on it
00:18:30
this is the robot system that was used
00:18:33
on some of those videos we looked at
00:18:34
earlier this year where there were
00:18:35
machine guns mounted to the back and it
00:18:37
was basically a new kind of field
00:18:39
Soldier it's an autonomous field Soldier
00:18:41
but really you can use it in scientific
00:18:43
applications we're looking at using them
00:18:44
in our uh on our on our test Farms where
00:18:47
it can wander the farm and take images
00:18:48
and Report data back to us and it's such
00:18:50
a low cost that like less than $3,000
00:18:53
you can do some incredible things with
00:18:54
it so this business just raised a couple
00:18:57
hundred million dollar last month
00:18:59
from Mostly Chinese investors it's a
00:19:01
Chinese company and I think that there's
00:19:03
going to be you know other similar type
00:19:06
businesses you know it kind of takes a
00:19:07
long time for things to work and then
00:19:09
all of a sudden they happen faster than
00:19:10
you could have ever imagined I think
00:19:12
this is going to be the year where we're
00:19:13
all going to look at humanoid robots and
00:19:15
autonomous systems and be like oh my God
00:19:18
I can't believe this is here um so this
00:19:19
could be the
00:19:20
year such a great strong choice for the
00:19:23
biggest winner and I think the quote
00:19:25
you're looking for is how did you go
00:19:26
bankrupt slowly and then all at once
00:19:28
that's how these technology changes and
00:19:30
man I would love to have one of these
00:19:31
for the ranch to just run around and do
00:19:33
the perimeter security sorry Nick pull
00:19:35
up the you guys got to watch this if you
00:19:36
haven't seen it Nick find the video of
00:19:38
the go2 with the wheels on it U managing
00:19:40
terrain and everyone thought this was a
00:19:42
BS video that it was like CGI wasn't
00:19:45
real it was AI generated but like this
00:19:47
thing is just incredible here it is this
00:19:50
is a real video of this thing yeah and
00:19:54
it could learn from an llm too right
00:19:56
like a large language model could teach
00:19:58
it how to do so yeah Gavin is this real
00:20:01
like what's your abely real yeah yeah I
00:20:03
want to get the G1 which is their
00:20:05
humanoid robot yeah so pull up the
00:20:07
humanoid it's really cool yeah a little
00:20:10
more expensive yeah yeah I mean $166,000
00:20:13
is the cost of a used Prius let's be
00:20:15
honest that's in spitting distance of
00:20:17
being affordable mid look at this thing
00:20:19
16 Grand and this thing you can you know
00:20:22
you can basically command it to do
00:20:24
things for you in your house or in your
00:20:27
factory or place oh come on I knew you
00:20:31
would do it oh come on I was going to
00:20:33
say maybe we could get a poker dealer
00:20:35
maybe B you know I wonder if this thing
00:20:37
could deal do you guys remember that
00:20:39
robot that was on stage for our all-in
00:20:42
Holiday Spectacular One so my my brother
00:20:45
made an observation he said as soon as
00:20:48
that robot came out it's like everyone
00:20:50
just wanted to abuse it he's like humans
00:20:52
have this very interesting nature where
00:20:54
like the robot emerges and all that
00:20:56
humans want to do is like hurt the robot
00:20:58
it's like
00:21:00
ration of behavior yeah like just it's
00:21:03
like oh here's something I dominate
00:21:04
here's something I can tell we're so
00:21:07
threatened by it we want to make sure
00:21:08
that we're the top of the species here
00:21:10
and it doesn't feel like it's going to
00:21:11
be for much longer I mean these things
00:21:13
will kick our ass pretty soon anyway
00:21:15
these things are amazing I think this is
00:21:17
going to be the year of the robots
00:21:18
that's my pred year of the robots is
00:21:19
your prediction I love it uh Gavin what
00:21:21
do you got profoundly agree I think
00:21:23
you're the robots um inclusive of FSD
00:21:28
you know I think FSD works today and
00:21:30
it's
00:21:31
gonna it's it's going to cross into
00:21:33
mainstream adoption where I already
00:21:37
notice particularly if I'm taking an
00:21:39
Uber late at night I really really
00:21:41
prefer to have a Tesla just sometimes
00:21:43
you get an Uber driver who's who's
00:21:47
tired and I just feel a lot safer if
00:21:49
they have the FSD running and then
00:21:51
obviously using it for yourself is
00:21:54
amazing but I think it's going to
00:21:55
continue compounding at an accelerating
00:21:58
rate
00:21:59
I think the in a lot of ways what I'd
00:22:02
say broadly is I think for a while it's
00:22:05
going to be big businesses are winners
00:22:08
big businesses that use Ai
00:22:10
thoughtfully and the reason is is that
00:22:13
with what is happening what what 03
00:22:16
showed us open ai's new model the
00:22:19
combination of reasoning and test time
00:22:22
compute like I think you're if you're a
00:22:24
big business and you can pay a million
00:22:27
dollars to let let an AI think for 6
00:22:30
weeks about the most important question
00:22:32
for your
00:22:33
business that's going to be a profound
00:22:36
Advantage relative to small businesses
00:22:39
that can't afford that and by the way we
00:22:41
are the other like inference compute is
00:22:44
going to be the the kind of derivative
00:22:46
when of that we're going to run out of
00:22:48
gpus accelerators
00:22:50
compute in
00:22:52
20125 the same way we did in
00:22:55
23 okay so you're also long Nvidia and
00:22:58
chip makers grock Etc because we're
00:23:01
finding new uses for all that compute
00:23:05
absolutely okay very good chth do you
00:23:08
have a prediction for your biggest
00:23:10
business winner of 2025 sir I think the
00:23:13
biggest business winner of 2025 are
00:23:16
going to be dollar denominated stable
00:23:19
coins oh I'll make two points in 2024
00:23:23
two critical things
00:23:25
happened the first is that
00:23:29
stable
00:23:30
coins
00:23:33
essentially became uncoupled from crypto
00:23:37
volatility and it started to be used for
00:23:41
wholesale useful functions in running
00:23:44
businesses and there's an image here
00:23:47
that starts to show that so independent
00:23:49
of crypto volatility what you saw were
00:23:51
stable coin usage just rising up and to
00:23:53
the
00:23:54
right that's an incredibly important
00:23:57
decoupling that happened in 24 the
00:23:59
second and this data is still just
00:24:01
trickling in but it's an incredible
00:24:05
stat stablecoin
00:24:08
usage at the end of the second quarter
00:24:10
of 2024 was about 1.1 billion
00:24:14
transactions that summed to
00:24:18
8.5 trillion do of transaction volume if
00:24:23
you compare that to Visa over the same
00:24:27
period it was more than double visas
00:24:31
transaction
00:24:32
volume so I think what we have now is
00:24:35
something that has fundamentally
00:24:38
crossed a point of no return similar to
00:24:42
how last year I thought that the big
00:24:43
Trend was going to be Bitcoin in 2024 I
00:24:47
would say that the big Trend in 25 is
00:24:49
stable coin usage I think we're going to
00:24:51
finally attack the duopoly of visa and
00:24:55
MasterCard I think you're going to see
00:24:58
an inal number of use
00:25:01
cases that sit and use stable coin rails
00:25:06
I think when Donald Trump becomes
00:25:07
president I think you're going to see
00:25:09
him go after incredibly High credit card
00:25:12
transactions and
00:25:14
costs you're already seeing cacks in
00:25:18
consumer credit anyways because of these
00:25:20
high aprs all of this stuff is going to
00:25:22
come to a head in 2025 I think and I
00:25:25
think stable coins could quadruple or
00:25:28
quintuple by the end of 25 I think it's
00:25:31
just going to be an enormous Market
00:25:33
great choice should they be regulated
00:25:35
chamath we saw at some of these
00:25:37
Congressional hearings tether was kind
00:25:39
of dragged for being the
00:25:41
primary transfer and and monetary tool
00:25:45
for terrorism for getting around
00:25:47
sanctions and for human trafficking
00:25:49
should it be regulated and how I I don't
00:25:53
think I'm qualified to say how it should
00:25:56
but I think the point is that there are
00:25:57
these IM logs that
00:26:00
sit in between and on either side of all
00:26:02
of these transactions and so I think the
00:26:05
knowledge is there and there are a whole
00:26:07
bunch of third party services that add
00:26:09
that intelligence
00:26:11
layer I think the the thing to really
00:26:13
question is if you just took 300 basis
00:26:17
points of
00:26:18
drag yes out of the global economy
00:26:22
massive gain how valuable would that be
00:26:25
and I think it would be valuable just in
00:26:27
the United States alone to the tune of a
00:26:29
trillion dollars so the idea that you
00:26:31
wouldn't do it at this point
00:26:34
is somewhat quizzical to me so I just
00:26:37
think that the economic justification
00:26:39
for this now is just so profound Gavin
00:26:42
let me ask you a hard question there as
00:26:43
well should the United States government
00:26:45
give up the let's face it you know they
00:26:49
they have a bit of a strangle hold
00:26:51
they've got a bit of a monopoly on US
00:26:53
Dollars these things are a competitor
00:26:56
and we were sitting here on this program
00:26:58
over the last couple years talking about
00:26:59
the bricks and them starting their own
00:27:02
currency aren't these in some way
00:27:04
similar to that and they would take
00:27:05
people off the USD standard how do you
00:27:07
look at that because that is the
00:27:09
criticism that some people in power have
00:27:12
put forward I do I do think that they
00:27:14
might be very good for the
00:27:16
world but I do think they would be very
00:27:19
bad for America if they replaced if some
00:27:23
constellation of stable coins became the
00:27:25
new Reserve currency it is such a an
00:27:29
advantage to be able to borrow in your
00:27:32
own
00:27:33
currency and to give that up lightly
00:27:35
that just that means you
00:27:37
control you have you you control the
00:27:40
real size of your debt at all times oh
00:27:44
wow we have a big big debt I mean this
00:27:46
is a little bit like what we just did
00:27:48
let's just have let's just let inflation
00:27:50
run hot and oh wow that debts a lot
00:27:51
smaller than it
00:27:54
was effectively so I think it would be a
00:27:56
big mistake freeberg you have any
00:27:58
thoughts on it we we've been talking
00:27:59
about currency here and a whole bunch
00:28:01
over the last couple years any thoughts
00:28:03
on stable coins and and just the uh
00:28:06
Monopoly we have on it I I don't know
00:28:09
enough about stable coins well that'll
00:28:11
be one of our big topics for the year
00:28:12
and we should uh definitely invite jir
00:28:14
from USD on or usdc usdc Geremy
00:28:19
air I mentioned by the way that I had
00:28:23
this small little product that
00:28:28
I exposed to the world which is just our
00:28:30
research and we sit it on top of
00:28:32
substack again the tools aren't very
00:28:33
good and we use stripe and Jeremy
00:28:37
reached out to me and he's like I'll
00:28:39
just rebuild all of your payment rails
00:28:41
on using US dollar stable coins and it's
00:28:45
a no-brainer because I'm spending
00:28:46
hundreds of thousands of dollars in
00:28:49
transaction costs that now I can just
00:28:51
save and use to hire somebody else or
00:28:53
just pay the team more and so I you're
00:28:56
paying 10% to suback in the 3% yeah if
00:28:59
it's obvious for me it's obvious for
00:29:00
everybody else all right my biggest
00:29:02
business winner prediction for 2025 is
00:29:05
Tesla and Google I think this is going
00:29:07
to be the year of AI and Robotics
00:29:10
obviously but I am just absolutely
00:29:12
amazed at the comeback that Google has
00:29:15
made with AI and I'm absolutely in awe
00:29:17
of what Elon did with Colossus if those
00:29:19
of you don't know Jensen Wong Michael D
00:29:22
they all obviously participated in
00:29:24
building out xai and they were shocked
00:29:27
they couldn't believe that they stood up
00:29:29
a 100,000 gpus in under 45 days was it
00:29:34
Gavin something in that neighborhood it
00:29:37
was a tremendous effort and uh you
00:29:39
that's not Tesla right is that Tesla
00:29:41
well Elon Tesla xai and Google that
00:29:44
cohort who are investing heavily in AI
00:29:47
those two specifically those two three
00:29:49
names I think are going to be the
00:29:50
biggest winners next year they're going
00:29:51
to come out with some things that people
00:29:53
didn't anticipate I don't I don't think
00:29:56
people are anticipating what Google
00:29:58
Google is going to come out with because
00:29:59
Gemini deep research I keep telling
00:30:01
people this and I'm using the app is so
00:30:04
impressive drop what you're doing right
00:30:06
now pause the podcast download Gemini
00:30:08
and just start playing with deep resarch
00:30:10
on your desktop pay the 20 bucks for it
00:30:12
it is mindblowing it blows anything else
00:30:15
in the market out of the water period
00:30:18
full stop it is a step function
00:30:21
higher all right I'll just leave it at
00:30:23
that Jason shouldn't you uh just go with
00:30:25
the vibe of the podcast shouldn't you
00:30:26
explain what it is what sorry okay so
00:30:30
what it does is good call good call if
00:30:33
you wanted to create a model let's say
00:30:34
and I did this where I said hey make me
00:30:36
a model based upon what it would take to
00:30:38
replace all the cars and trips in the
00:30:40
United States with full self-driving
00:30:43
cars what would that cost to do and if
00:30:46
you ask that to chat GPT or grock or you
00:30:50
know Claude it's going to give you a
00:30:51
decent answer what deep research does is
00:30:54
it goes and it figures out what the
00:30:55
subcomponents of each of those questions
00:30:57
would be and then it fires off multiple
00:30:59
threads and then it searches the web in
00:31:01
real time which Google is extremely good
00:31:03
at and then it summarizes it gives
00:31:06
citations and it produces a report that
00:31:08
looks like something that Gartner group
00:31:09
McKenzie Boston Consulting Group would
00:31:11
have spent I don't know 30 days on Gavin
00:31:14
and a million dollars a half million
00:31:16
dollars it's Bonkers how good
00:31:19
this is but the amount of compute it
00:31:21
takes is extraordinary that's why chat
00:31:23
GPT released something similar that's
00:31:25
200 bucks a month the 01 Pro I think
00:31:27
they call it
00:31:28
and then this one is like 20 bucks from
00:31:30
Gemini anyway given what Google has
00:31:33
access to YouTube your G drive your
00:31:36
Google Docs Etc your Gmail it's going to
00:31:39
do things that you wouldn't anticipate
00:31:41
like if you were asking this question it
00:31:43
might look in your Gmail for
00:31:45
possibilities to answer those questions
00:31:47
or YouTube videos of channels you
00:31:49
subscribe to so this is going to I think
00:31:52
knock people's socks off and solve
00:31:53
problems that people didn't know they
00:31:55
had is that a pretty good explanation
00:31:57
Gavin yeah think it's great for last
00:31:59
year our predictions for business winner
00:32:02
chamat said bootstrapped or Endor
00:32:03
profitable startups I think that's a
00:32:04
really great pick and that came to pass
00:32:06
we're seeing some of those go public and
00:32:07
raise money at higher valuations or not
00:32:10
go out of business freeberg you said
00:32:12
Commodities businesses I'm not sure how
00:32:13
that did do you know did you Che pretty
00:32:16
flat yeah we didn't have a lot of the
00:32:19
inflationary pressures that I think were
00:32:21
underlying that pie so got it it ended
00:32:24
up being I'd say a loser relative to
00:32:27
other indices you could bought this year
00:32:29
I said training data owners like Reddit
00:32:31
New York Times Google Etc Reddit stock
00:32:33
up 24% in 2024 and they launched their
00:32:36
own Reddit answer call yeah I think I
00:32:38
got that one uh New York Times stock is
00:32:40
up as well and they uh fired off that
00:32:42
lawsuit with open AI all right now we're
00:32:44
going to move on to the 2025 biggest
00:32:46
business loser predictions in 2024
00:32:49
shamat said pro sports teams because
00:32:52
they hit Peak valuations that's looking
00:32:53
like a pretty good prediction free perg
00:32:55
you said vertical SAS companies because
00:32:57
of AI disrupt
00:32:58
that's another one that seems like a
00:32:59
great prediction I said smartphone
00:33:01
manufacturers Apple stock was up 30% in
00:33:04
2024 but I think we've all seen that
00:33:06
these uh smartphones aren't advancing
00:33:09
and people are taking their times the
00:33:10
sales of those are down services are up
00:33:12
I would take the other side on pro
00:33:13
sports teams it feels like that market
00:33:15
is about to be
00:33:17
institutionalized and funds are going to
00:33:20
start buying pro sports teams okay that
00:33:23
ultimately and ultimately Capital
00:33:25
markets have way more resources than
00:33:26
kind of the wealthy individual ual
00:33:28
who've done it for to date so I just
00:33:31
think it's the amount of money that can
00:33:34
go after pro sports teams is about uh
00:33:37
you know 10x 100x no I think I think
00:33:39
you're totally right the the reason I
00:33:41
said that last year was it was pretty
00:33:43
clear to me at the time and the NBA was
00:33:45
the canary and the coal mine that there
00:33:47
was a viewership problem in professional
00:33:49
sports and specifically in the NBA the
00:33:53
game has devolved into essentially
00:33:55
rebounds and dunks or three point ERS
00:33:58
and the issue with that is that it
00:34:01
becomes just meaningfully less
00:34:02
interesting to watch at the same time
00:34:05
because of the the fact that the TV
00:34:07
deals are really what determines the
00:34:09
discounted value of these sports
00:34:11
franchises the TV deal was so enormous
00:34:15
that it creates
00:34:17
no reliable rivalries anymore because
00:34:21
people will hop scotch teams almost
00:34:23
every year because the compensation that
00:34:25
they can get is just so obscene quite
00:34:27
honestly
00:34:28
and I think what happens is sports will
00:34:31
have a decent run until the next TV
00:34:33
deals get done and I think if you for
00:34:36
example take Pharma ads outside of TV so
00:34:40
like that pool shrinks if you have less
00:34:44
viewership and so you can sell the
00:34:46
remaining ads less effectively because
00:34:49
there's just fewer of them and then
00:34:50
there's fewer buyers and it shrinks yet
00:34:52
again then the dollar pool that the
00:34:55
television networks and the Stream are
00:34:58
going to be willing to pay for sports
00:35:00
will go down and the group that will be
00:35:03
the most price sensitive are exactly who
00:35:05
you said Gavin meaning the non trophy
00:35:08
buyer so like you know when I bought
00:35:10
into the Warriors I bought it purely as
00:35:11
a trophy asset and I was pricing
00:35:13
sensitive but I agree with you that now
00:35:15
that you have the PE firms on the cap
00:35:17
tables of these sports franchises those
00:35:20
folks are all DCFS those folks are all
00:35:22
Excel models I don't think that they're
00:35:24
buying things for emotion I don't think
00:35:26
they've grown up thinking I want to own
00:35:28
this thing not using institutional LP
00:35:30
dollars so I just think that's why
00:35:33
that's why I said that in 24 so I just
00:35:34
on behal of Phil Huth and I we
00:35:36
appreciate you made that vanity
00:35:37
investment for the number of times we
00:35:39
got to sit in your court side seats yeah
00:35:42
because I never we made with NBA players
00:35:44
I never went to the games I should have
00:35:46
gone to more games I went to your games
00:35:47
and almost got thrown out of your seats
00:35:49
I got a red card one time it's true is
00:35:51
it true you did oh you don't I got a I
00:35:54
got a call I got a call I think it was
00:35:56
from the Warriors or it's from from the
00:35:57
NBA something to the effect of chouth
00:36:00
this guy that was sitting in your seats
00:36:01
was almost kicked out and I said excuse
00:36:03
me because I knew that it was Game In
00:36:05
fairness and and he was like jawboning
00:36:08
our own players I was getting into it
00:36:11
with bogot and with David Lee because I
00:36:14
told it was unbelievable I told Steve
00:36:16
cerr listen you're up 30 on my Knicks
00:36:18
sit these guys down this is Bush League
00:36:20
what if Steph Curry gets hurt out there
00:36:21
like and uh you know Boga told me to
00:36:24
shut up Andre boa told him to basically
00:36:27
go pound in a basically did it was the
00:36:29
funniest thing ever Gavin this is what
00:36:31
happens when you get's one of our
00:36:33
friends he's one of our good friends so
00:36:34
that's why it's so funny but they can't
00:36:36
they come over freeberg and they tap you
00:36:38
on the shoulder I'm with my wife she's
00:36:41
mortified and the guy hands you a card
00:36:44
and the card says you've been warned one
00:36:47
time and one time only about abusive you
00:36:50
know uh Behavior if we have to warn you
00:36:53
one more time you will be escorted out
00:36:55
rid so I look at the guy and I say but
00:36:57
he goes read the card I read the card I
00:37:00
say he goes giv me a thumbs up that was
00:37:03
it I never that was it you're not
00:37:05
supposed to then three years later I'm
00:37:07
sitting in the same seats I'm
00:37:08
interacting with Draymond during the
00:37:10
finals games and everybody's hokey doie
00:37:12
with it when you say interacting what do
00:37:14
you mean when you say interacting wa
00:37:15
hold on G Gavin wanted to make a point
00:37:17
about what I no I just want to just just
00:37:19
come back to chath because for sure
00:37:20
these private Equity guys there DCFS the
00:37:22
NBA has been terribly managed I think
00:37:24
even LeBron said they have a big problem
00:37:28
you know and I'd separate the NBA is the
00:37:30
worst managed NFL is probably the best
00:37:31
managed but the one kind of CounterPoint
00:37:33
I would say on the TV rights is Google
00:37:36
bought Sunday Ticket and are extremely
00:37:39
happy with
00:37:40
it Amazon and Netflix also bought you
00:37:44
know both bought NFL games and are
00:37:46
really happy with them and so I just
00:37:48
think those three companies it doesn't
00:37:50
really matter to them if Pharma ads go
00:37:53
away in 18 months you're going to be
00:37:55
able to dynamically create an ad
00:37:58
for each individual person and show it
00:38:00
to them and if you're a high value user
00:38:02
with a you know that Google knows that
00:38:04
you're about to book a vacation you know
00:38:06
they'll dynamically generate you know
00:38:08
whatever you know Hotel destinations you
00:38:10
want and show click here so I just think
00:38:14
Sports as long as they command the
00:38:16
eyeballs that they do and I for sure if
00:38:19
the NBA doesn't fix it the value of
00:38:22
those franchises will start to decline
00:38:24
but um just the fact that all of the
00:38:28
biggest tech companies are so happy with
00:38:30
the sports kind of rights that they
00:38:32
bought they're going to buy them all
00:38:34
every sport understand Gavin maybe maybe
00:38:37
you're closer to this but why wouldn't
00:38:40
Apple Amazon or Google just back up the
00:38:42
truck to the NBA and say well take the
00:38:44
whole thing and then anybody who's got
00:38:46
an iPhone gets the NBA for free and then
00:38:49
everybody else has to pay and they
00:38:50
figure it out in the back and they lose
00:38:52
a you know 5 billion they make two
00:38:54
billion who cares it's a rounding error
00:38:56
for Apple I agree
00:38:57
and they you know I mean they all all
00:39:00
except for Apple really and apple they
00:39:02
have I think an MLs deal but they all
00:39:04
kind of stuck their toe in the water and
00:39:06
I think they feel like wow the water's
00:39:08
warm let's dive in um okay yeah and the
00:39:12
New Deal is an 11year deal for the NBA
00:39:14
so these things don't come up that often
00:39:16
but we'll see over time maybe somebody
00:39:18
will buy one of these media companies
00:39:20
and inherit them okay biggest business
00:39:23
loser for 2025 what's your prediction
00:39:25
Gavin Baker government service providers
00:39:29
you do not you do not want to have the
00:39:31
United States government at any level is
00:39:33
over 35% of your
00:39:35
Revenue good choice yes obviously in the
00:39:38
age of Doge they might not be spending
00:39:40
wildly and they might actually look at
00:39:41
the bill they might check the bill crazy
00:39:44
thought crazy thought yeah crazy thought
00:39:46
to actually check the bill you never
00:39:47
know chth who do you predict will be the
00:39:49
biggest business loser of
00:39:52
2025 well this is a a little bit
00:39:57
precarious
00:40:00
but I don't know what the percentage
00:40:03
draw down from here will be but I think
00:40:06
when we look
00:40:07
back the
00:40:10
absolute dollar draw down of the mag s
00:40:14
will be in the trillions of dollars okay
00:40:17
and the reason is not necessarily
00:40:20
because of the underlying fundamentals
00:40:22
of these
00:40:23
companies but I am a little bit worried
00:40:26
and I tweeted this a few days ago about
00:40:28
just the general
00:40:30
concentration of the top seven 8 nine 10
00:40:33
companies in the
00:40:36
indices I think it's approaching
00:40:39
40% and I think that when you look at
00:40:41
these historic
00:40:43
concentrations they've generally
00:40:45
foreshadowed a big draw down okay and
00:40:47
unfortunately I don't see how you
00:40:52
can sort of you know inoculate yourself
00:40:55
from that risk so independent of the
00:40:57
quality of these companies because I
00:40:59
think these companies are exceptional
00:41:01
businesses I do think you've just had
00:41:03
too much concentration and I think it it
00:41:05
is a setup to retrade and give back and
00:41:09
in that it could even be 10% but 10% in
00:41:13
the mag 8 will be a couple trillion
00:41:15
bucks and so on absolute would be a lot
00:41:18
yeah an absolute dollar a lot okay
00:41:19
freeberg who do you predict you predict
00:41:21
Max 7 government service providers for
00:41:23
You Gavin Free who do you predict will
00:41:24
be the biggest business loser of 202 I'm
00:41:27
sort of on the same vein as Gavin I went
00:41:29
with the kind of old defense and
00:41:31
Aerospace providers Boeing loed Martin
00:41:34
Ron defense 1.0 driven by kind of China
00:41:38
dominance driven by us defense budgets
00:41:40
that I think are going to need to shift
00:41:41
towards a more kind of tech oriented and
00:41:43
Roid driven rationalization and pricing
00:41:46
and spend so the Palante and Andals
00:41:48
obviously the world will benefit and I
00:41:50
also just think like there's a lot of
00:41:51
failure at scale with these businesses
00:41:53
they've gotten too clunky and too
00:41:55
bureaucratic as we've seen with boing
00:41:57
from their space program failure in 2024
00:42:01
uh to the challenges with their their
00:42:04
airplane business but I think that this
00:42:05
government contracting business across
00:42:07
the board is going to be deeply
00:42:08
challenged this year with all the new
00:42:10
blood so the Cost Plus are going to
00:42:13
suffer is what you're saying and the
00:42:14
andrs will Thrive would you guys add
00:42:17
just a question would you guys add the
00:42:20
traditional Consulting companies then to
00:42:22
the mix as well like if you that's a
00:42:24
good point too that's a great one yeah
00:42:26
we think what we talked
00:42:27
like the Y Pros the tatas the hcls the
00:42:31
accent cogn the Emy all these folks in
00:42:35
are in real trouble if that if that also
00:42:37
happens that's right yeah you the
00:42:39
efficiency that they'll gain will also
00:42:42
be felt by their customers and their
00:42:43
customers might not hire them when you
00:42:45
got a bunch of software entrepreneurs
00:42:47
that are now advising and informing the
00:42:48
federal government on how to run their
00:42:50
their operations I'm pretty sure that
00:42:52
some of these service providers are
00:42:53
going to get washed out so it's a good
00:42:55
idea the thing to keep in mind is like
00:42:57
plus is a fancier way of saying time and
00:43:00
materials and time and materials is a
00:43:03
fancy way of saying human labor
00:43:05
Arbitrage and I think that all of that
00:43:08
stuff will get extremely scrutinized in
00:43:12
2025 because if you are buying you know
00:43:14
$800 waste baskets and you know $9,000
00:43:18
uh umbrella hangers because of time and
00:43:21
materials and all of this other crazy
00:43:24
stuff that's in the system and all of
00:43:25
that gets washed out then a lot of these
00:43:27
folks in their business models will will
00:43:29
get put under severe stress the
00:43:30
alignments you know you show me an
00:43:32
incentive I'll show you the outcome the
00:43:34
alignment of Cost Plus is to just keep
00:43:37
being inefficient and and waste and and
00:43:40
these defense contractors are taking 60
00:43:42
70 80% off the price of each piece of
00:43:45
Munitions or
00:43:47
vehicle yeah Cost Plus is terrible no
00:43:51
just cost is terrible that's all all
00:43:53
right for my biggest business loser
00:43:54
prediction I had to go through a lot of
00:43:57
the uh people I've uh criticized on in
00:44:01
started fights with over the past year
00:44:03
commercial real estate came to mind
00:44:04
because these leases are going to keep
00:44:06
coming up and I think like they kick the
00:44:08
can down the road a little bit so I
00:44:09
started there then I looked at micro
00:44:12
strategies and that made no sense to me
00:44:14
that they were trading at two three four
00:44:15
times the book value of their Bitcoin
00:44:17
and I think that's not sustainable I
00:44:20
looked at truth social which is like
00:44:22
doing four or5 million in revenue and is
00:44:25
valued at 7 billion that makes Absol no
00:44:27
logical sense but I think the one that
00:44:29
is the most overpriced of of all of this
00:44:31
and I think is going to
00:44:34
see their Peak valuation is open AI I
00:44:38
think the headwinds for open AI are
00:44:40
being
00:44:42
absolutely
00:44:44
underappreciated like I said before in
00:44:46
my previous one uh my previous
00:44:47
prediction Google is kicking ass xai is
00:44:50
just getting started and building out so
00:44:52
much big Iron Microsoft was basically on
00:44:57
another
00:44:58
podcast almost like laughing at open a
00:45:01
for selling them the source code and
00:45:03
that they didn't even need open AI
00:45:04
anymore because they had it all they
00:45:05
don't need them and they own all the Big
00:45:07
Iron I think open ai's valuation made no
00:45:10
sense I don't think they're going to be
00:45:12
able to keep charging the prices are
00:45:13
charging and I think AWS Apple Google
00:45:18
xai this cohort are going
00:45:21
to really take that $57 billion
00:45:25
valuation and make it the peak valuation
00:45:29
of the company and I do I do think that
00:45:31
there's a nonzero chance they could lose
00:45:34
their process and these court cases of
00:45:37
transferring $157 billion dollar in
00:45:41
value from a nonprofit into a for-profit
00:45:43
I think that whole thing could blow up
00:45:45
is that your super prediction is open AI
00:45:47
will not be able to convert from
00:45:48
nonprofit to for-profit in 2025 I think
00:45:50
that that's a small piece of it but
00:45:52
that's a really interesting super
00:45:53
prediction insert poly Market graphic
00:45:56
here
00:45:58
super prediction will open AI convert is
00:46:01
that's a good in 2025 yeah by the way
00:46:03
you know they're projecting I think in
00:46:05
the the the leaked financials 12 billion
00:46:08
Revenue next year jkl so unlike a lot of
00:46:10
the other things you were talking about
00:46:11
this is a real business with real
00:46:13
Revenue real scale real growth real
00:46:15
technology it's it's a little bit
00:46:17
distinct from kind of being a meme stock
00:46:19
or being a exactly that's why I'm
00:46:21
picking it because I think it's easy to
00:46:22
pick a meme stock it's harder to pick a
00:46:25
real company but I do think think that
00:46:27
that Revenue which you know a lot of it
00:46:29
is consumer and a lot of it is
00:46:31
developers the developers I know all
00:46:33
want to do open source they don't want
00:46:35
to have to be beholden to open Ai and
00:46:38
Sam mman they would much rather and
00:46:40
they're already setting their queries
00:46:42
across multiple different sacks and
00:46:44
trying different ones I don't think
00:46:45
there's any loyalty to open AI or gemini
00:46:48
or any of these Services I think they'll
00:46:49
just go with eventually open source in
00:46:52
many cases so anyway that's my thought
00:46:53
on open AI 2025 biggest business deal
00:46:57
what do you got shth what's your biggest
00:46:59
business deal for 2025 prediction shth
00:47:01
what do you got you said starlink to go
00:47:03
public last
00:47:04
year that one yeah totally whiffed on
00:47:07
that one I think that this is the year
00:47:10
that we will see the collapse of the
00:47:12
traditional Auto
00:47:14
oems and I think that
00:47:17
the the deal that happened at the end of
00:47:20
2024 with Honda Nissan I think is a bit
00:47:24
of a signal to what the industry has to
00:47:27
do which is to go through a massive wave
00:47:29
of consolidation I think that
00:47:32
Tesla is just in an
00:47:35
incredible position with the quality of
00:47:37
their vehicles and the quality of their
00:47:39
software and the qu quality of their
00:47:41
autonomy with FSD so I suspect that
00:47:46
after a couple of
00:47:48
more
00:47:51
meaningful product releases it's just
00:47:53
going to trigger the realization by the
00:47:56
public capital markets that these Auto
00:47:58
oems are uninvestable and I think the
00:48:01
result of that will be a wave of Auto
00:48:05
Mega
00:48:06
mergers and for people who don't know
00:48:08
Honda and Nissan signed an agreement to
00:48:11
merge and Mitsubishi is involved because
00:48:14
they're part of I think Nissan's
00:48:15
Alliance this would obviously get rid of
00:48:17
all of the
00:48:19
redundancy I think this is touch like
00:48:22
the European oems are in real trouble
00:48:24
you know what does Volkswagen do
00:48:26
not clear what does stantis do it's not
00:48:29
clear these are all businesses that are
00:48:30
effectively melting icebergs and so you
00:48:34
know typically melting Iceberg
00:48:36
businesses when they get put under
00:48:38
pressure from Smart investors like Gavin
00:48:41
and and and is ilk they're forced to
00:48:44
merge short gav Gavin you got a spread
00:48:46
trade are you short these names um I I
00:48:50
would rather not talk about specific
00:48:51
positions I would just say I agree 100%
00:48:53
with chamath I think there you go
00:48:56
they're going to lose their Chinese
00:48:57
business because they don't make
00:48:59
competitive products anymore if there's
00:49:02
not massive protectionism and we're
00:49:04
seeing signs that they'll be caught
00:49:06
between Tesla and the Chinese
00:49:08
oems and I think the only way that this
00:49:11
doesn't H chat's the only risk to chat's
00:49:14
prediction is just government
00:49:16
intervention because they's such big
00:49:18
employers and you know often seen as
00:49:20
national champions but absent really
00:49:24
significant government support they all
00:49:26
in deep
00:49:28
trouble okay well done freeberg last
00:49:32
year you said there'd be some
00:49:33
Blockbuster deals for right holders
00:49:35
licensing data for AI training and
00:49:37
Reddit did in fact sign two of those so
00:49:39
uh a great prediction from you for last
00:49:41
year on biggest business deal what do
00:49:42
you got this year see if you can go two
00:49:44
for two was it just
00:49:46
Reddit I should probably look it up what
00:49:50
you I'll just follow on my year of the
00:49:52
robot theme I do think that there's
00:49:54
going to be massive funding deals
00:49:57
similar to what we saw this past year
00:49:59
for compute buildout I think we're going
00:50:00
to see massive funding deals for
00:50:03
Hardware based Manufacturing buildout in
00:50:05
the United States and I think that those
00:50:07
deals may take the form of kind of
00:50:10
traditional Equity from private markets
00:50:13
or they may have some component that
00:50:15
includes government support to to kind
00:50:18
of motivate and drive and accelerate
00:50:20
onshore manufacturing we're not going to
00:50:22
go in the US to making stuff that is
00:50:25
like last century I think we're going to
00:50:27
need to move manufacturing to the next
00:50:29
decade Next Century of of production and
00:50:32
I think that's going to mean making some
00:50:34
of these autonomous and robotic type
00:50:36
systems that are going to become really
00:50:37
critical for us particularly with China
00:50:40
doing this massive ramp up and buildout
00:50:43
for both drones and robots and
00:50:46
autonomous vehicles so I think we're
00:50:47
going to need to kind of onshore a lot
00:50:48
of this and so that'll be a big amount
00:50:50
of capital that's going to move and so
00:50:52
you'll see a bunch of these big
00:50:53
Blockbuster deals for Hardware buildout
00:50:54
in the US Gavin what do you think to be
00:50:56
the biggest business deal in 2025 I
00:50:59
think the biggest business deal is that
00:51:01
they're going to be deals I think
00:51:03
there's you're going to see a Title Wave
00:51:04
of m&a after four years of not being
00:51:07
able to get anything done I think
00:51:09
there's an enormous amount of pinup
00:51:12
demand so kind of Point number one point
00:51:14
number two something will happen with
00:51:15
Intel and that will be big and hopefully
00:51:18
it's good for
00:51:19
America and
00:51:21
then I do think you will see a lot of
00:51:23
these Frontier AI Labs that are
00:51:25
independent be quiet
00:51:28
you know I thought your points were well
00:51:29
taken Jason about you know everything
00:51:31
that uh you know Google is bringing to
00:51:33
Bear an ex xai owns their own compute
00:51:37
and you guys can choose whichever one of
00:51:38
these three you like but the ultimate AI
00:51:41
winner will be the one with the lowest
00:51:44
cost of infrastructure cost the lowest
00:51:46
cost of compute and definitionally you
00:51:49
can't be the lowcost provider if you're
00:51:51
ring your compute from someone else
00:51:53
because of markups yeah because there's
00:51:55
a markup if you're buy your compute from
00:51:57
Azure or
00:51:59
AWS or Google you were at a disadvantage
00:52:02
relative to their internal Services over
00:52:05
time so the full stack wins great
00:52:08
prediction for
00:52:10
me last year my prediction was that bite
00:52:13
dance would go public or Tik Tok would
00:52:16
get divested or some version of this we
00:52:18
are but 18 days away from figuring out
00:52:20
if the Supreme Court will do just that
00:52:22
my prediction for this year I was
00:52:24
looking at all the media companies
00:52:25
gentlemen there were so many
00:52:27
possibilities there Warner Brothers we
00:52:29
talked about Apple and Disney you know
00:52:32
couple years ago but I think the age of
00:52:34
autonomy is here and I think there is
00:52:37
going to be some Partnerships that will
00:52:40
happen between Amazon door- Uber Tesla
00:52:44
weo and that cohort and I would not be
00:52:47
surprised to see Tesla could buy Uber
00:52:49
right now for but 10% of its market cap
00:52:52
and weo could spin out and partner with
00:52:55
Uber Amazon could buy door Dash fairly
00:52:58
easily and with the wrath of KH being
00:53:00
over the wrath of lenina con being over
00:53:03
Gavin it is possible that Mega deals
00:53:06
like these could go through and if a
00:53:08
couple of Mega deals go through like
00:53:10
this whoever uh you know teams up here
00:53:13
could win autonomy delivery food
00:53:16
delivery and e-commerce this is a
00:53:18
ginormous space and I think listen I
00:53:21
don't I haven't spoken to uh obviously
00:53:24
my friend about it but Tesla buying door
00:53:26
Dash and Uber or Amazon buying door Dash
00:53:29
and Uber could be the greatest service
00:53:31
ever created if you wanted to build a
00:53:33
super app the only thing I would add and
00:53:35
I think dovet tales with what you said
00:53:36
and and um friberg's kind of year of the
00:53:40
robot is autonomous drones there's a
00:53:43
company called zipline which my firm is
00:53:44
an investor in fantastic yeah but
00:53:48
autonomous drones they really are the
00:53:50
best way to deliver almost anything to
00:53:53
Suburban America and then I think
00:53:57
over time it will be sorted out so that
00:53:59
they could deliver in cities as
00:54:01
well so I just think that that might be
00:54:04
a little bit of a wild card for some of
00:54:06
these delivery services well and Amazon
00:54:08
in I believe it's Texas is actually
00:54:11
doing these now they've got 60,000 SKS
00:54:14
is my understanding already being
00:54:15
delivered and they just drop it in your
00:54:17
backyard and it's there in 45 minutes I
00:54:20
do this like two weeks ago I um you know
00:54:22
Matan in China's got this and they they
00:54:24
F have food delivery happening with
00:54:26
these Dr
00:54:26
by the way um just kind of dovetailing
00:54:28
off of this I think the other big deal
00:54:30
potential in 2025 just to be very
00:54:32
specific is a deal with weo you know weo
00:54:35
launched n SF in August 2023 in kind of
00:54:38
an open market way Uber and Lyft were 66
00:54:41
and 34% market share at the time and in
00:54:43
15 months in November of 2024 weo is now
00:54:47
a 22% market share of rides in SF which
00:54:51
is the same as Lyft and Uber is now down
00:54:52
to 55 so weo Aid in both Uber and lifts
00:54:56
market share by on the order of 12
00:54:58
points um in just 15 months and now
00:55:01
they're launching in LA in Austin all
00:55:03
over the country they're already in
00:55:05
Phoenix so I think you could see a
00:55:07
massive and by the way you know they
00:55:08
also just moved the the hardware
00:55:09
platform over to a new d new device that
00:55:12
supposedly going to bring the capex
00:55:13
significantly down for new launches so
00:55:16
you'll see much improved roic metrics
00:55:18
which means that there's a much kind of
00:55:20
more efficient way to use Capital to
00:55:22
scale so the system works it is scaling
00:55:25
they are opening up a new markets you
00:55:27
could see something happen with weo this
00:55:28
year that could either be something like
00:55:30
a massive financing an IPO or a merger
00:55:33
or acquisition with one of the big right
00:55:34
sharing companies I don't know if that
00:55:36
makes as much strategic sense as I've
00:55:37
thought about it a little bit but I do
00:55:39
think you could see a big deal with wayo
00:55:40
this company is if you guys have not
00:55:43
been in AO uh I think we all talked
00:55:45
about this but it's an incredible
00:55:46
experience and everyone I know of every
00:55:48
age group that has been for a ride in wh
00:55:51
comes out of it saying that is the
00:55:52
future this is going to absolutely
00:55:53
dominate how I'm going to get around I'm
00:55:56
most people say it's slow right now and
00:55:58
monotonous and they don't like it but
00:56:00
you know because it does take weird
00:56:02
routes but that'll be fixed over time
00:56:03
obviously tot and uh just in case
00:56:05
anybody thinks I'm talking my book here
00:56:07
I have exposure to all these almost all
00:56:09
these companies in a in a significant
00:56:11
way because I believe in the entire
00:56:12
space one and a half% of rides in the US
00:56:16
and globally it's less than 1% are done
00:56:18
by ride sharing the Tam is going to go
00:56:20
to 20% in a very short period of time
00:56:23
and it's going to be across the board
00:56:25
there's going to be a lot of winners
00:56:26
here and to my favorite Uber obviously
00:56:30
they have deals with eight people and
00:56:31
it's a global market byd produces cars
00:56:34
for half the price of any other car
00:56:36
manufacturer and they have full self
00:56:38
driving and it's pretty darn good from
00:56:39
what I understand so this is going to be
00:56:41
a global competition and that means if
00:56:44
you want to win that Global competition
00:56:46
something like uber and doores weo
00:56:49
Amazon byd you're going to see some
00:56:51
interesting Partnerships happen very
00:56:52
quickly I believe because there's so
00:56:54
much at stake all right and final
00:56:56
thoughts on biggest business deals I
00:56:58
think I maybe have a good one here
00:57:00
consolidation in the transportation
00:57:01
space okay moving on to 2025 most
00:57:06
contrarian
00:57:08
belief last year Enterprise value of
00:57:10
open AI goes down from chth it roughly
00:57:12
doubled but I just picked it as my
00:57:15
prediction so I think we're s we're
00:57:17
sympatico on uh what we think long term
00:57:19
freeberg you said increased probability
00:57:21
of a nuclear weapon being used for the
00:57:23
first time since World War II thank the
00:57:25
Lord that that didn't happen again this
00:57:27
is contrarian beliefs people are going
00:57:29
out there I I didn't predict it was
00:57:30
gonna happen I just said the probability
00:57:31
went up it was it's a tough it's a tough
00:57:33
thing to call well this is most
00:57:34
contrarian belief I think it's fine Dr
00:57:36
Doom strikes again it's all good I
00:57:39
picked Apple would become the player in
00:57:40
Ai and they did launch Apple
00:57:42
intelligence but it sucks I mean it
00:57:46
sucks it's terrible I just bought the
00:57:49
Google pixel fold
00:57:51
n and the Gemini works perfectly it does
00:57:56
everything that Ser is supposed to do if
00:57:57
you say please play this song If you say
00:58:00
please download this app if you say add
00:58:02
this to my calendar it does it and it
00:58:04
does it in one or tenth the amount of
00:58:08
time that Apple takes and apple gets it
00:58:11
wrong every time it's a piece of garbage
00:58:15
it's a disgrace disad apple apple
00:58:19
intelligence is even worse than co-pilot
00:58:21
which is saying something Jason would
00:58:23
you like to
00:58:24
announce you B the domain dad.com I own
00:58:29
it I'm not selling it right now it it
00:58:32
redirects to J Paul Gavin Gavin do you
00:58:35
have any idea what word he's even saying
00:58:38
when he says that disad disad it's disg
00:58:42
graad is what people used to say in
00:58:45
Brooklyn for somebody who is disgraceful
00:58:48
it is a Italian American slang how do
00:58:52
you spell
00:58:53
it you don't even know you own the
00:58:55
domain you don't even know d i s g r a z
00:58:59
i a d disg
00:59:01
graad yes and if you type in disg graad
00:59:04
it goes to Jake Paul I bought it when I
00:59:06
was watching the Tyson fight it was so
00:59:09
disgraceful I was saying to my brother
00:59:11
Josh the black bomber this is and he
00:59:14
just said disg graad and I just said I
00:59:16
wonder if that's available as a domain
00:59:18
I'm redirecting disg graad right now Tim
00:59:21
Cook to Apple intelligence the website
00:59:24
do you guys think Tyson through that
00:59:26
that it was part of the deal
00:59:29
th% I would love I think somebody said
00:59:32
Saudi Arabia was offering to host a
00:59:34
remake or or whatever a redo a rematch a
00:59:37
rematch of the fight where the winner
00:59:40
would make 50 million and then we'll see
00:59:42
what's what and the loser gets zero yes
00:59:44
and the loser gets zero this is a good
00:59:46
use of the Kingdom's money the people
00:59:49
want to know we will all fly out there
00:59:51
and do an Allin episode from you guys
00:59:53
see this did you see this thing where is
00:59:55
it is it Logan Paul is fighting Conor
00:59:57
McGregor in India and Conor McGregor is
01:00:01
gonna get $250 million what yeah it's
01:00:06
like a
01:00:07
whole stunt I I think it's boxing and
01:00:10
it's meant to sort of like bring a bunch
01:00:12
of tourists into India to show them the
01:00:14
country but it's a quarter of a billion
01:00:17
dollars to Conor MC how do we get in on
01:00:18
this grift freeberg versus Baker poly
01:00:22
hoaa versus kakanis oh my gosh we need
01:00:25
to get our own celebrity box and who
01:00:27
would we do come on keep going I got to
01:00:29
drive home let's go come on too much fun
01:00:31
this episode chth what's your most
01:00:33
contrarian belief prediction for 2025
01:00:36
we're going out on a limb here this is
01:00:37
going out in a limb folks don't judge us
01:00:40
the the spicier to take the better here
01:00:42
this is where you can go
01:00:43
freestyle I think that you're going to
01:00:45
see a banking crisis in one of the major
01:00:48
Mainline Banks a banking crisis wow
01:00:52
there is a it's a small chance it
01:00:54
happens but that's a contrar belief okay
01:00:57
why Jam why Black Swan well I think if I
01:01:00
had to kind of build the the case for
01:01:05
this it would be along the following
01:01:07
lines if you added up the total
01:01:10
indebtedness of pax America which is US
01:01:14
Government
01:01:16
debt plus corporates plus Mortgage
01:01:21
Debt and you actually sensitize it to
01:01:27
rates that are around call it
01:01:30
5% what you quickly realize is on a
01:01:34
dollar
01:01:35
basis that because the amount of debt
01:01:38
that we have has just massively
01:01:41
exploded that 5% rates today on 70 odd
01:01:46
trillion dollars is actually equivalent
01:01:50
to 10% rates 25 or 30 years ago because
01:01:54
we only had a fraction of that debt on a
01:01:57
dollar basis and so the pain that you
01:02:00
feel at 5 or 6% can very quickly Ripple
01:02:03
through the economy the way that it did
01:02:06
when rates 25 or 30 years ago were
01:02:09
10% and so I think that when people look
01:02:12
at rates they forget the actual total
01:02:16
dollar impact because when somebody or
01:02:18
collectively when we have to come up
01:02:20
with three or four trillion dollars how
01:02:22
do you do that and so I think that there
01:02:25
is a
01:02:26
non-trivial risk I think it's small this
01:02:28
is why it's contrarian but I think it's
01:02:30
a it's a risk where if you have a
01:02:32
marketto market
01:02:35
problem if you have a credit default
01:02:38
problem amongst the corporates or
01:02:40
amongst enough individual
01:02:43
consumers what I think that happens more
01:02:47
than anything else is that it triggers a
01:02:49
reserve issue and I think that the
01:02:52
reserve issue in one of these Mainline
01:02:55
Banks
01:02:57
I have two that I think are more obvious
01:02:59
than others but I don't want to name
01:03:00
them okay fair enough I love this
01:03:03
contrarian take this is great I think
01:03:05
that there's a there's a small but
01:03:07
reasonable chance that that happens I
01:03:09
love it it's a great great contrarian
01:03:10
take small chance but big impact Gavin
01:03:14
what do you got well first Gemini deep
01:03:16
research to um just ask it to look at
01:03:19
the total you know Pax Americana debt
01:03:22
outstanding apply the current Market
01:03:26
interest rate to it and then look at
01:03:28
that you know interest expense relative
01:03:31
to GDP and generate that chart over time
01:03:33
that would be a cool chart that would be
01:03:37
interesting I don't I I don't I don't
01:03:39
disagree with
01:03:41
chamath you know
01:03:43
any anything is possible and um you know
01:03:47
there there could for sure be be a
01:03:49
problem at a big
01:03:51
bank I don't know that I would say it's
01:03:53
likely but you anything is possible my
01:03:55
most cont belief so I think that America
01:03:58
over the next at some point over the
01:04:00
next four years will print at least one
01:04:02
year of greater than 5% GDP growth real
01:04:06
GDP growth I think productivity is going
01:04:09
to go vertical because of AI and
01:04:12
deregulation and I think there could be
01:04:14
a world where this is the late 90s and
01:04:18
it doesn't sound like a big difference
01:04:19
you know five or 6% versus 2 or 3% but
01:04:21
it is a massive difference
01:04:25
you know at five or 6% you know the
01:04:27
economy is
01:04:29
doubling you'll call it every 12 years
01:04:32
roughly versus 24 years at 3% I mean
01:04:35
it's just it's a massive difference in
01:04:38
terms of kind of the wealth of the
01:04:39
country and individual Americans as far
01:04:42
as a specific prediction for 25 uh
01:04:44
because I don't know when when that will
01:04:45
happen I think you will see the frontier
01:04:47
Labs stop releasing their Leading Edge
01:04:49
models to prevent knowledge distillation
01:04:53
and their IP effectively being stolen
01:04:55
you know seek from China it was really
01:04:57
impressive but it thinks it's gp4 you
01:05:00
know yeah so I just think you will
01:05:03
you'll see the labs keep their best
01:05:05
models in house distill them and put
01:05:07
small small models
01:05:09
out over time fber do you have a
01:05:12
contrarian belief and I did put into
01:05:14
Gemini Advanced 1.5 Pro with deep
01:05:16
research the question which banks have
01:05:18
the great biggest chance of being
01:05:19
insolvent or having a financial collapse
01:05:21
or crisis so it's doing its research
01:05:23
right now it'll be done in about 10
01:05:24
minutes I think
01:05:26
which gives you an idea of how much
01:05:27
research it does it's
01:05:29
nuts freeberg what do you got I think
01:05:32
that the the party line is that
01:05:34
socialism was defeated in this election
01:05:38
cycle and that there was a resounding
01:05:41
kind of vote from the American populace
01:05:44
against socialism and I actually think
01:05:46
my my contrarian belief is that we'll
01:05:47
see a rise a dramatic rise in socialist
01:05:51
movements in 2025 in the United States
01:05:54
okay and I think that we going to see as
01:05:56
Gavin pointed out an acceleration of
01:05:58
progress we're going to see an
01:05:59
unleashing of economic growth because of
01:06:03
deregulation and AI but I do think that
01:06:05
some markets we've also talked about the
01:06:08
the the the downfall of us autom
01:06:10
manufacturing and some other Industries
01:06:13
there's going to be a real significant
01:06:15
shift in 2025 some Industries and some
01:06:18
companies are going to be huge winners
01:06:19
and some companies are going to be huge
01:06:21
losers there's going to be some parts of
01:06:23
the economy that are going to be big
01:06:24
Winners and some parts of the economy
01:06:25
that are going to be big losers when you
01:06:27
have this sort of a change this fast
01:06:29
there are often large contingents of
01:06:31
people that are left behind and when
01:06:33
that happens I do think that the
01:06:34
Socialist policies and the Socialist
01:06:36
movements gain steam when um Peron came
01:06:39
to power in
01:06:41
Argentina in the mid1 1940s that country
01:06:44
was experiencing 8% GDP growth to
01:06:47
Gavin's point about accelerating growth
01:06:49
growth does not mean that it benefits
01:06:51
everyone equally and I think that some
01:06:53
folks will see people go from being
01:06:55
billionaires to 100 billionaires to the
01:06:56
world's first trillionaire and it will
01:06:59
also start to fuel this rise so I think
01:07:01
that we will see an increase in the
01:07:03
breadth and depth of socialist movements
01:07:04
in the United States by the way
01:07:06
particularly with Doge cutting
01:07:08
Government funding to programs that
01:07:10
benefit individuals employment being cut
01:07:12
in in the federal government and through
01:07:14
Federal contractors there's just a lot
01:07:16
of Rapid change that's about to kind of
01:07:18
really upset a lot of people I totally
01:07:21
agree I think AI you know people are
01:07:24
fond of saying that what in a world of
01:07:26
AGI or ASI money will be
01:07:29
meaningless but for a short period of
01:07:31
time money will matter more than it's
01:07:33
ever mattered before because the amount
01:07:36
of money you can spend on AI on test
01:07:40
time compute is going to give you a
01:07:43
massive Advantage whether you're a
01:07:44
company or an individual so I just think
01:07:46
AI is going to really amplify inequality
01:07:49
for some period of time yeah I hope I'm
01:07:53
wrong like I hope you know AI leads to
01:07:55
you know all sorts of you know
01:07:56
opportunities being created for low
01:07:59
there's a lot of there's just going to
01:08:00
be a lot of employment and income
01:08:02
disruption in 2025 and it's going to
01:08:05
fuel socialist movements and I think
01:08:07
that this is going to be a more
01:08:09
difficult Year everyone thinks it's kind
01:08:10
of rosy red because we're all working in
01:08:12
the tech industry in Silicon Valley but
01:08:15
the reality on the ground for most
01:08:16
Americans could be a lot harsher than
01:08:18
any of us anticipate and that could make
01:08:20
for a very difficult political
01:08:22
environment and social environment this
01:08:23
is a great contrarian prediction free I
01:08:25
would build on it that I don't think
01:08:27
this is just going to hit blue collar I
01:08:30
seeing in the Venture industry and in
01:08:32
entrepreneurs all over the place people
01:08:34
who are super qualified who had six
01:08:37
figure salaries even to Mid six figure
01:08:39
salaries not be able to find work we not
01:08:41
find work at previous compensation
01:08:43
levels why because people are doing more
01:08:45
with less it's much better to invest and
01:08:48
do deep research and Ai and automate
01:08:51
stuff or deprecate stuff or delegate
01:08:54
stuff to to other regions than to hire
01:08:57
Americans in some cases and that
01:09:00
philosophy that's happening isn't just
01:09:01
going to hit truck drivers it's going to
01:09:03
hit developers potentially designers
01:09:06
writers what the contrar part of what
01:09:08
you guys are saying what's the
01:09:10
contrarian part socialism socialism ISM
01:09:13
On The Rise I it's pretty interesting
01:09:17
because I think you don't think it's
01:09:18
contrarian you think it's obvious I
01:09:19
think the party line has been that
01:09:21
socialism was getting knocked back this
01:09:24
year with this
01:09:26
it was a mandate against socialism and
01:09:28
some of the Socialist policies that were
01:09:29
being put forth and I think that the
01:09:32
contrarian view is that we're actually
01:09:33
got this really wrong and socialism is
01:09:36
going to be on a big rise but just to
01:09:37
build on what you said earlier like w
01:09:39
wokeism and progressivism will decouple
01:09:42
from socialism I think wokeism and
01:09:46
progressivism you know will be on a
01:09:48
declining Trend but socialism in terms
01:09:50
of the
01:09:52
government like policy more role yeah
01:09:55
yeah why have Universal why don't we
01:09:58
have Universal healthare why don't we
01:10:00
have prek or you know in every state and
01:10:02
and you know these kind of things I
01:10:04
think Americans are right to ask those
01:10:06
questions now other behaviors are
01:10:09
obviously appor but you do have the
01:10:10
right to ask why we can't figure this
01:10:12
out and why our government has failed Us
01:10:14
in something as basic as you know
01:10:16
providing after school programs or
01:10:19
universal healthcare or Universal Child
01:10:21
Care these things are easy to do and
01:10:23
when you see everybody getting rich and
01:10:25
and the polarization of wealth I can
01:10:26
understand people saying why don't we
01:10:28
have these basic things when other
01:10:30
countries have them it's a reasonable
01:10:31
you're making the assumptive statement
01:10:33
that these things are easy to do which
01:10:34
was what was said about education it's
01:10:36
like let's give everyone access to
01:10:37
college education with the uh the
01:10:40
federal student loan programs and what
01:10:41
happened was when we introduced those
01:10:43
programs those schools started to charge
01:10:46
more and the tuition went up every year
01:10:48
and eventually the cost of Education
01:10:50
inflated away from the benefit you were
01:10:51
getting from it and this has happened
01:10:53
universally in healthcare it has
01:10:55
happened happed in housing it has
01:10:56
happened in education it has happened in
01:10:58
every Market where the unit states where
01:11:01
the government has stepped in to provide
01:11:03
Capital to support that market is that
01:11:05
the market basically no longer operates
01:11:07
in a free way I appreciate the challenge
01:11:09
to it and I'll explain to you why I
01:11:11
believe it's easy if you just put this
01:11:13
down to the States and you make it more
01:11:14
competitive I think you solve the
01:11:16
problem if you introduce School vouchers
01:11:17
and you create competition if you take
01:11:19
universal healthcare and maybe you run
01:11:21
some experiments where different states
01:11:23
get that money from the federal
01:11:24
government and let them run 50 different
01:11:27
experiments I think we could actually
01:11:28
solve some of these problems but you're
01:11:30
correct anything that the federal
01:11:31
government does it eventually becomes
01:11:32
corrupt and inefficient my most
01:11:34
contrarian belief was open AI loses its
01:11:36
lead loses its nonprofit to for-profit
01:11:41
transition and becomes the number four
01:11:43
player in AI the total collapse of open
01:11:47
AI is my most contrarian prediction for
01:11:49
20 that's a good one the total collapse
01:11:52
of dble double doubling and tripling
01:11:54
down hey man I'm trying to make this
01:11:56
spicy it's a spicy category let's do I
01:11:59
got got
01:12:00
it could still run for president Jal
01:12:03
maybe he's great I don't know everybody
01:12:04
who all his friends left the company
01:12:06
maybe he's great maybe he's a standup
01:12:09
guy I mean everybody quit but maybe he's
01:12:12
gav are you are you familiar with J K's
01:12:14
prediction that Jeff Bezos is gonna run
01:12:15
for president it was that was my I was
01:12:17
predicting I wanted him to I wanted him
01:12:19
to and he bought Washington Post and he
01:12:21
quit the Amazon job and he bought a
01:12:24
house in Washington d
01:12:25
and he went down to marago don't be
01:12:28
surprised if Bezos after he gets through
01:12:30
his uh midlife crisis and going to
01:12:33
Coachella and partying and having a
01:12:35
great time which he deserves if he comes
01:12:37
back and says you know what I want to
01:12:38
serve my country I still stand by
01:12:41
Washington Post or do you think he's
01:12:42
gonna hold on to it well let's stick
01:12:44
with that one because that's one
01:12:46
prediction Jeff Bezos will sell the
01:12:48
Washington Post in 2025 that's a good
01:12:49
poly Market yeah sell it to Caren swier
01:12:51
sell it to Karen swier
01:12:55
run it right into the ground they'll
01:12:57
Double
01:12:57
Down uh okay best performing asset
01:13:01
everybody loves this one best performing
01:13:02
asset hey we can you can put a price on
01:13:04
this best performing asset last year
01:13:07
chamat did a spread trade he was long
01:13:08
public tech stocks short private late
01:13:11
stage Tech stock index NASDAQ top 100
01:13:14
Tech stock ETF was up 10% 2024 freeberg
01:13:18
you went with your uranium ETF not
01:13:21
Uranus uranium ETF and you're a UR are a
01:13:25
was down 1% in 2024 I know sideway you
01:13:28
know what I I looked at the components
01:13:30
of that ETF last week when we were
01:13:32
preparing for this it has absolute junk
01:13:35
in it like it it was not the right the
01:13:38
right right way to kind of trade uranium
01:13:41
but anyway that was my My outcome for
01:13:44
the year I went with the on demand
01:13:47
economy with Uber Airbnb and door Dash
01:13:49
Uber was up 30% but now it's only up 3%
01:13:52
with the robo taxi hadwin Airbnb is
01:13:54
basically flat
01:13:56
and doorish up big 74% shout out to
01:13:58
Stanley Tang great job to the team over
01:14:00
there so jam get your flowers there
01:14:02
let's do our best performing asset let's
01:14:04
let our guests go first Gavin what would
01:14:06
be the best performing asset of
01:14:08
2025 I think the companies that make
01:14:10
high bandwidth memory going back to
01:14:13
we're we're going to run out of
01:14:16
compute it's it's
01:14:19
um it's actually a pretty shocking stat
01:14:22
high band with memory is a bigger part
01:14:24
of in cogs on gpus than Taiwan Simi is
01:14:28
and today there's two companies that can
01:14:29
make it h HX and Micron we'll see if
01:14:33
Samsung gets their act together but hbm
01:14:36
memory it's in Nvidia gpus AMD gpus
01:14:39
Amazon
01:14:42
terraniums and particularly in a world
01:14:44
of test time compute and inference being
01:14:47
so important H been with memory is
01:14:53
arguably more important than it ever was
01:14:55
and it's been um it's been sold out for
01:14:57
the last two years so high band with
01:14:59
memory would be my pick okay good pick
01:15:03
great pick in fact what do you got Jam
01:15:06
so let me preface this by saying that
01:15:08
this is a pick
01:15:10
that 92 times out of
01:15:14
100 goes to absolute zero
01:15:19
okay and six out of the remaining eight
01:15:23
times you make 10 extra money and then
01:15:28
the final two times you make anywhere
01:15:30
between a 100 to a thousand extra money
01:15:32
okay sounds like Bitcoin okay so this is
01:15:35
a loser trade okay but I would be long
01:15:41
CDs so what am I buying I am buying
01:15:44
insurance I'm buying
01:15:46
Insurance using credit default swaps I'm
01:15:49
buying what's called protection that
01:15:51
there is no default event in
01:15:55
25 again I'm not going to tell
01:15:58
you which companies or what maturities
01:16:03
but just the general idea for me is I
01:16:06
would like a little bit of an insurance
01:16:08
policy in
01:16:09
2025 so that the men and the women that
01:16:12
we have voted in have the chance to do
01:16:15
their work in peace I think that there
01:16:18
is a small
01:16:20
chance of some volatility next year I
01:16:24
hope it doesn't happen I hope that this
01:16:26
trade like I said 92 times out of 100
01:16:28
loses money I hope it loses
01:16:31
money but if it hits it will be the best
01:16:34
performing asset of 2025 it will be the
01:16:36
equivalent of acman buying
01:16:39
CDs right at the right at the beginning
01:16:41
of the covid crisis how does one buy
01:16:43
those you have to have an isda you talk
01:16:45
to the big investment Banks and they'll
01:16:47
price it out for you but again I and and
01:16:50
I just want to be clear this is not
01:16:51
something I think will happen it's not
01:16:52
something I want to happen but I do
01:16:55
think that if you look back in terms of
01:16:58
just the tonnage of dollars you can make
01:17:00
and the massive risk asymmetry that it
01:17:02
presents to you when you look at the
01:17:05
concentration of the S&P when you look
01:17:07
at just the total gross amount of debt
01:17:08
that we have when
01:17:10
you look at rate spiking all of these
01:17:14
things say having a little
01:17:16
Insurance may not be a bad thing so I
01:17:20
hope you're nodding Gavin you're nodding
01:17:22
you want to ask no no I was just I was
01:17:24
just thinking I mean if
01:17:25
if you know chat's prediction of a bank
01:17:27
failure is true you absolutely want to
01:17:29
own
01:17:30
CDs you I mean you'll you forget 100x
01:17:33
you'll a th000 x 10,000x what do you got
01:17:38
freeberg so I went
01:17:42
with Chinese tech stocks or Chinese Tech
01:17:46
ETFs wow I think that the market
01:17:49
everyone's kind of dumped Chinese tech
01:17:51
stocks over the last couple of years
01:17:52
everyone's taken this isolation stance
01:17:55
on positioning portfolios and saying hey
01:17:57
we can't do business with China it's
01:17:59
over but I do think that the Trump
01:18:02
Administration particularly with their
01:18:04
recent request on Tik Tok being the ban
01:18:06
on Tik Tok being kind of halted they're
01:18:09
trying to line up what I would call kind
01:18:10
of like the great deal with China so I
01:18:13
don't know anything about what they're
01:18:14
actually trying to do but I think that
01:18:17
Trump and leadership in the US
01:18:20
government want to kind of open up the
01:18:22
Chinese market to American companies in
01:18:24
order to give Chinese companies access
01:18:26
to the American market and I think that
01:18:27
they're going to get a deal done given
01:18:29
the position with China I think that
01:18:31
they're very likely to kind of get a
01:18:32
deal done that's one driver I think
01:18:34
there's three drivers the second driver
01:18:36
is that obviously the cost of build out
01:18:37
of electricity production in China is
01:18:39
unfathomable they recently approved $1
01:18:41
137 billion hydroelectric Dam facility
01:18:45
which is going to add another I think
01:18:46
couple hundred gigawatts of electricity
01:18:48
production in that country not to
01:18:51
mention all the nuclear build that we've
01:18:52
talked about in the past so the cost per
01:18:55
hours already lower the amount of
01:18:56
electricity available is going up and
01:18:58
then I think that the Chinese Communist
01:19:01
Party have this incredible ability to
01:19:03
throttle up and down free markets and
01:19:05
Entrepreneurship and this is a moment
01:19:07
where you could kind of see them making
01:19:09
the throttle go the way towards enabling
01:19:11
more Innovation more free market
01:19:13
activity and it's going to be one of the
01:19:14
motivators for them to do a deal so when
01:19:16
you put all of this together I do think
01:19:18
that there's a lot of Chinese tech
01:19:20
companies that have been beat up under
01:19:22
the assumption that this is going to be
01:19:23
a a very difficult conflict with the US
01:19:25
in the years ahead and I think that that
01:19:27
may not be the case going into 25 and I
01:19:29
think that their these stocks look
01:19:31
pretty cheap I was just looking at
01:19:32
Alibaba and it trades at a pretty decent
01:19:34
multiple it seems like these stocks
01:19:37
could be poised for a pretty good run in
01:19:39
25 if the macro works out this feels
01:19:41
like a contrarian take I mean Trump I
01:19:44
don't think is going to find uh a way to
01:19:47
balance the relationship with China very
01:19:49
well and I don't think you can rattle up
01:19:51
entrepreneurship after you cut
01:19:52
everybody's knees out the last time plus
01:19:55
I don't trust any accounting statement
01:19:57
coming out of China because they could
01:19:58
fudge whatever they want but wow what a
01:20:01
great uh potential you know Buy Low sell
01:20:04
High the good thing is you'll know if
01:20:06
I'm right you'll know if I'm right or
01:20:08
wrong in a year you can exactly we'll
01:20:10
know exactly that's right pull the ETF
01:20:12
absolutely I mean Gaffin what do you
01:20:13
think of this hot take here from from Mr
01:20:15
freeberg really cheap I've had a I call
01:20:18
it a no China guideline ever since the
01:20:21
longtop financial fraud more than 15
01:20:24
years
01:20:25
ago or it was just amazing it was you
01:20:28
know uh a lot of great
01:20:30
investors owned it and you know they
01:20:34
they talked a great
01:20:36
game and they had a western auditor but
01:20:38
then it turned out that the fraud was
01:20:41
happening at the local post office where
01:20:44
they were opening up the documents that
01:20:46
the local Auditors had signed off on
01:20:48
changing them and then sending different
01:20:50
documents you know you know whatever
01:20:52
fedexing them yeah so I just think it's
01:20:55
it's a hard place if you're I think if
01:20:57
you're not Chinese to make
01:21:00
money but I tend to agree with a a lot
01:21:03
of what David said I think Trump and G
01:21:05
both want to deal I think there's a deal
01:21:07
to be done that leaves Putin out in the
01:21:09
cold as I
01:21:12
referenced and if that happens Katie bar
01:21:14
theor I mean there are really really
01:21:16
high quality companies you know that are
01:21:19
some of them are mid single digit
01:21:20
multiples and there and it's a big
01:21:22
market so if if you did get it right and
01:21:24
you by the way the Chinese the Chinese
01:21:26
companies serve a global market it's not
01:21:28
just the US they serve uh you know
01:21:31
Africa South America a mean the whole
01:21:33
southern hemisphere Well yeah if you
01:21:35
look at byd that it's all over Europe
01:21:38
it's yeah it's it's hug look I mean I I
01:21:41
mean the the Chinese companies and they
01:21:43
have the best unit economics they have
01:21:45
the best cost of production I mean
01:21:47
everything is advantaged particularly if
01:21:50
you believe it's the year of the robot
01:21:52
there's going to be a kind of a massive
01:21:54
demand around the world for
01:21:57
Automation and for rebuilding
01:21:59
manufacturing capacity all over the
01:22:00
world and I think that China could
01:22:02
service those markets more efficiently
01:22:04
than any other kind of country of origin
01:22:06
so it's a pretty pretty powerful set of
01:22:09
macro drivers as well I think the max 7
01:22:11
is going to be the best performing asset
01:22:13
I'm taking the other side chamat I think
01:22:14
in an earlier prediction said maybe not
01:22:16
so much I think that what they've
01:22:19
learned in the last couple years is that
01:22:21
there is an incredible earnings
01:22:23
expansion you can do
01:22:25
by not hiring people and Outsourcing
01:22:27
jobs to other parts of the world and
01:22:29
automating and the gains we'll see from
01:22:32
AI which they're producing for other
01:22:34
companies and for consumers they're
01:22:37
applying first internally so the
01:22:39
internal application of AI will allow
01:22:41
these companies to have earnings growth
01:22:44
that people will not be able to
01:22:46
comprehend over the next couple of years
01:22:48
so I'm going with Max s we got a lot of
01:22:51
different takes here going different
01:22:53
directions what a great episode so far
01:22:56
all right worst performing asset last
01:22:58
year chamat said late stage Tech stock
01:23:01
index mostly SAS freeberg you put in a
01:23:03
brilliant spread trade short vertical
01:23:05
SAS long AI Cloud providers SAS has come
01:23:08
had a little bit of a rebound but Google
01:23:11
up 36% for AI Cloud Microsoft 14% Amazon
01:23:15
46% all in 2024 I said llm startups like
01:23:20
open AI anthropic too many players open
01:23:22
sourcing will kill pricing obviously the
01:23:25
one valuation we can track is open Ai
01:23:27
and it doubled but I do think I'll
01:23:29
longterm have that one work worst
01:23:31
performing asset of 2025 Gavin
01:23:35
Enterprise application software okay
01:23:37
this is basically just about like 2025
01:23:41
is going to be I think the year of
01:23:42
Agents particularly in the second half
01:23:43
agents just
01:23:45
being AI models that can take action on
01:23:47
your behalf that can do anything online
01:23:50
that a human can do
01:23:51
online and if the lab ABS and the big
01:23:55
cloud providers dominate agents which
01:23:58
seems likely going back to you know the
01:24:01
the lowcost producers going to
01:24:03
win Enterprise application software I
01:24:06
think is going to be in a lot of pain
01:24:08
and you know some of these companies are
01:24:10
talking a big big game about agents but
01:24:13
at the end of the day they don't have
01:24:14
their own models they don't own their
01:24:16
own
01:24:18
compute and I just don't see them being
01:24:21
ultimate winners in the world of Agents
01:24:23
you know I could easily I could be wrong
01:24:26
because they do you know they they they
01:24:29
have some customer data maybe a little
01:24:31
bit of a data mode and they do you know
01:24:34
have strong customer relationships but
01:24:36
you know most companies have
01:24:37
relationships with AWS Google or
01:24:38
Microsoft as well so I think Enterprise
01:24:40
application software will be in
01:24:43
pain okay and chth what do you got I
01:24:47
think Gavin just absolutely nailed it
01:24:49
I'm going to double down on what he
01:24:52
said I think that there's a term that
01:24:56
that we will start to use more I started
01:24:58
to use it internally at 890 over this
01:25:01
last year in 2024 which is the software
01:25:03
industrial complex these are these
01:25:07
large bloated in many cases enterprise
01:25:11
software companies that effectively have
01:25:14
convinced incredible numbers of
01:25:16
organizations to spend a tremendous
01:25:19
amount of money essentially
01:25:22
wrapping a bunch of heuristics and
01:25:24
business rules around the crud database
01:25:27
and along with that what they have
01:25:29
perfected really is a go to market and
01:25:31
sales motion the golf trips the steak
01:25:34
dinners you know we mentioned this
01:25:36
before what Alex karp railed
01:25:40
against none of those things equate to
01:25:43
product value and increasingly in the
01:25:46
world of agentic software and AI I think
01:25:50
that you can rebuild a lot of these
01:25:51
workflows in very efficient ways M and I
01:25:54
think the go to market is going to be
01:25:56
driven by CEOs and CFOs Who start to
01:26:00
exert a little bit more pressure on
01:26:02
their cios to manage spend and in that
01:26:06
world I just think that these next
01:26:08
Generation AI businesses are built
01:26:10
frankly an order of magnitude
01:26:13
cheaper than the companies that they
01:26:15
compete against and so even if it's just
01:26:17
feature for feature the same I think the
01:26:20
software industrial complex these old
01:26:22
Mainline
01:26:24
traditional enterprise software
01:26:26
companies I think you're going to start
01:26:28
to see fissures in those businesses in
01:26:30
2025 so I I agree with Gavin different
01:26:32
words but same result and you put your
01:26:34
time and money where your mouth is on
01:26:37
this one 11 months ago you found it
01:26:38
88090 to get 80% the the traction in in
01:26:44
less than a year to me is shocking and I
01:26:47
don't think it speaks necessarily I I
01:26:49
think we're decent we're very good we
01:26:51
have great
01:26:52
Engineers but my 30% engineer in team I
01:26:54
think does the work of 300 people by
01:26:56
next year it'll be doing the work of
01:26:58
3,000 people maybe it will only grow by
01:27:00
10 or 20% so and the reason is we use
01:27:04
these tools we're productive to an order
01:27:06
of magnitude that I didn't think was
01:27:08
possible and as a result we're just able
01:27:11
to price it differently so even if it's
01:27:13
the exact same product its cost
01:27:16
structure is just meaningfully lower and
01:27:18
so this is what I mean where the ROI
01:27:21
calculators get blown up all of the
01:27:23
traditional go to market mod get blown
01:27:24
up because in an RFP or in any other
01:27:27
sales environment what you do is
01:27:29
somebody says it's $100 and you show up
01:27:31
and you say 10 okay and at 10 it's still
01:27:35
hugely profitable for you and and just
01:27:38
to add just one last thing is just you
01:27:40
know fundamentally these Enterprise
01:27:42
application software companies the
01:27:43
software industrial complex and I agree
01:27:45
with everything jamat said you know
01:27:47
they're they're fundamentally based on
01:27:49
making white collar human employees more
01:27:52
efficient and what the AI companies are
01:27:54
going to do is just say hey we're just
01:27:56
going to replace that worker and it's
01:27:57
just a fundamentally different
01:28:00
mentality par shift yeah and it goes to
01:28:03
like there may may be a lot of pain that
01:28:05
a companies this and you know David's
01:28:07
points around the you know potential
01:28:08
rise of of
01:28:10
socialism what do you got for worst
01:28:12
performing asset Mr freeberg 2020 I'm
01:28:15
probably just going to Triple underline
01:28:17
vertical sass again perc pricing model
01:28:19
being challenged pricing being
01:28:21
compressed as companies explore inhouse
01:28:24
tools built with AI that replaces these
01:28:27
kind of traditional business
01:28:29
practices be
01:28:31
destroyed this is it was an obvious it
01:28:34
was an yeah it was an obvious one on my
01:28:36
list but I want to make a different one
01:28:38
I want to make a different one how about
01:28:40
do you have anything open Ai No open is
01:28:42
great all the talented people left but
01:28:45
you know I don't know where they are
01:28:47
where do all the where are they all the
01:28:48
other open AI employees are they on
01:28:50
vacation they're skiing too right no
01:28:51
they've all started competitors oh right
01:28:53
that's what happened correct yeah they
01:28:55
all left to compete and have Revenge
01:28:57
startups wow that's an interesting Trend
01:28:59
okay so consumers make five big
01:29:02
decisions in their life as we all know
01:29:03
college still doing 12 billion Revenue I
01:29:05
mean well that's that's a
01:29:08
projection sometimes meet reality six
01:29:10
billion in losses too David against that
01:29:12
12 billion in Revenue yeah six billion
01:29:14
this year or six billion next year I
01:29:16
think the six is for next year but I
01:29:19
yeah I don't know I guess it makes sense
01:29:21
why they're trying to charge 200 bucks a
01:29:22
month now
01:29:24
they got some headwinds okay listen
01:29:26
consumers make five big decisions in
01:29:28
their life we know college spouse kids
01:29:30
are uh the obvious ones and then cars
01:29:33
and homes and the consumer is up against
01:29:35
it with record debt so since you can't
01:29:38
trade College spouse kids really I think
01:29:41
Legacy car companies in real estate are
01:29:44
going to face continued headwinds and be
01:29:46
terrible assets because listen we've
01:29:49
overbuilt in some cases there's tons of
01:29:51
cars on lots and people can't afford
01:29:53
homes with these mortgages so I think
01:29:55
these are going to be the two worst
01:29:57
performing asset people in the Legacy
01:29:59
oems as chth pointed out in a previous
01:30:01
prediction and then I just think real
01:30:03
estate is the same if you look at a
01:30:04
place like Texas two years in a row
01:30:06
housing values have gone down rent has
01:30:08
gone down two years in a row same things
01:30:09
happening in other states where they
01:30:11
allowed you to build and people are
01:30:12
leaving states where they don't allow
01:30:13
you to build so that's my worst
01:30:15
performing asset trade Enterprise was my
01:30:17
other choice but I'll go with something
01:30:19
slightly different most anticipated
01:30:20
trend for 2025 last year chamath
01:30:23
congratulations you said last year that
01:30:25
Bitcoin would hit 100K for the first
01:30:27
time nailed it half court shot well done
01:30:30
I think at the time you made that
01:30:31
prediction it was probably trading at it
01:30:33
felt like a layup felt like a layup to
01:30:35
you up 112% uh freeberg you said
01:30:37
predictive models in AI driven Discovery
01:30:39
and farma and bioengineering how did
01:30:41
that do that prediction well there was a
01:30:43
lot of funding and Demus won the Nobel
01:30:46
priz Noel prize there you go so it
01:30:48
worked out I picked efficiency in the
01:30:50
form of AI advancements in labor and
01:30:52
Outsourcing and I've seen that Bunch
01:30:54
with our investment in Athena go to
01:30:56
Athena w.com okay got my plugin there
01:30:59
let's go for most anticipated 2025 Trend
01:31:01
what do he got Chim off I think that
01:31:04
there are a handful of not to overuse an
01:31:08
overuse term but canaries in the coal
01:31:09
mine for the end of the deep
01:31:12
State and I would like to point to one
01:31:16
which is
01:31:18
this
01:31:20
obscure thing called the supplemental
01:31:22
loss ratio
01:31:24
and essentially what it is is a
01:31:28
mechanism
01:31:29
that the banks can
01:31:32
use to include or not include treasuries
01:31:35
and how they calculate reserves etc etc
01:31:37
now why is this an interesting thing
01:31:39
it's not interesting for many people
01:31:40
it's very
01:31:42
Arcane but if we are
01:31:46
unable to manage the debt
01:31:49
situation in
01:31:52
2025 I think what you're going going to
01:31:54
see is maneuvering at the edges of these
01:31:57
Arcane regulations that effectively Kick
01:32:02
the Can down the road and there is a
01:32:05
chance that that could happen to help
01:32:07
the banks because you know we believe
01:32:10
that we meaning collectively America
01:32:13
that maybe Doge won't be as effective as
01:32:15
it needs to be that there's still going
01:32:17
to need to be you know 1020 trillion
01:32:19
dollars of debt issuance to refinance
01:32:21
the 10 that's maturing this year and to
01:32:23
plug holes in the coming
01:32:26
years my point in all of this is we
01:32:28
don't need to understand the details
01:32:30
except that if we don't move the
01:32:35
goalpost
01:32:36
here it is a great sign
01:32:41
that the folks that are running the show
01:32:43
are the ones that we all elected okay so
01:32:46
that is my most anticipated Trend small
01:32:49
Arcane regulatory changes that allow us
01:32:52
to Kick the Can down the road stop in
01:32:54
its tracks this is an example okay
01:32:56
freeberg you got a most anticipated
01:32:57
trend for 2025 my most anticipated trend
01:33:00
is around the announcement of buildout
01:33:04
of nuclear power in the United States in
01:33:07
2025 as a function of deregulation and
01:33:10
some new
01:33:11
technologies I do think that this new
01:33:13
government is going to be U much more
01:33:16
accommodating and it's going to as I've
01:33:18
said in the past I think it's a
01:33:19
necessity just because of the the the
01:33:22
rate at which we have to do power build
01:33:24
outs to meet kind of competitive demand
01:33:27
against China the United States is going
01:33:29
to need to add more power electricity
01:33:31
production capacity than we can scale up
01:33:34
with any other renewable source so I do
01:33:36
believe that nuclear is an inevitability
01:33:39
I think that the deregulation will
01:33:40
happen in 25 and I do know a lot of very
01:33:42
smart people who are actually starting
01:33:44
nuclear power companies and have left
01:33:48
very good jobs to go and do this in
01:33:50
anticipation of this happening in 25 so
01:33:53
I'm very bullish
01:33:54
that's a leading indicator for sure when
01:33:56
smart people do something with their
01:33:58
time that's a great indicator Gavin what
01:33:59
do you got uh I think Ai and Nick I sent
01:34:02
you a chart I don't know if you can
01:34:04
Flash it up but um I think AI is going
01:34:08
to make more progress per quarter in
01:34:12
2025 than it did per year in 23 and 24
01:34:17
and the reason is just with um with 01
01:34:20
and 03 this is rcgi it's designed you we
01:34:23
keep we keep changing the goalposts for
01:34:26
the touring test and
01:34:28
AGI and I'm sure we're going to change
01:34:30
them again as we're going to blow
01:34:32
through this and I just think what has
01:34:34
happened is we were scaling around
01:34:36
around one on one axis which was
01:34:39
pre-training and then we started scaling
01:34:41
around in Fritz time compute and it's
01:34:44
very clear that we have now added a
01:34:46
third axis of scaling performance and
01:34:49
that is reasoning and what this is is
01:34:52
these models the internet is composed of
01:34:55
answers people giving answers and what
01:34:58
the models really benefit
01:35:00
from is kind of the internal monologue
01:35:04
of somebody getting to that answer and
01:35:07
this is you know in in AI terms they
01:35:09
call it a reasoning trace and it's one
01:35:11
reason you know 18 months ago everybody
01:35:12
was like oh wow the more code you train
01:35:14
a model on the better it does and all
01:35:15
sorts of things that have seemingly
01:35:18
nothing to do with code but all code you
01:35:21
see kind of the reasoning the internal
01:35:24
monologue the thought process the step
01:35:26
by step and so what's happening is
01:35:28
you're using models to generate
01:35:31
synthetic data that contains these
01:35:34
reasoning traces so you ask a model you
01:35:36
know solve this problem it has to be a
01:35:38
problem that is functionally verifiable
01:35:40
that has an answer or we know the answer
01:35:42
and we say show your work and we have it
01:35:44
do that many many different ways and
01:35:46
times and then you pick the best ones
01:35:48
and you kind of feed those back into the
01:35:50
model you apply some reinforcement
01:35:52
learning to it and so now you're scaling
01:35:54
along three axes that are multiplicative
01:35:57
with each other and I
01:36:00
just I you know a guy on the Google team
01:36:04
said tweeted maybe five days ago it's
01:36:07
going to be a straight shot to ASI
01:36:10
artificial super intelligence and I
01:36:11
think that might be right Ilia gave a
01:36:14
talk at NPS Ilia Suk um one of kind of
01:36:17
the original pioneers of this field and
01:36:19
he said something that I thought was
01:36:21
scary and he said these models that
01:36:24
reason are inherently unpredictable so
01:36:27
the best reasoning models in the world
01:36:29
today are the ones that play games the
01:36:30
kind of alphago alpha zero style models
01:36:33
and they are constantly making
01:36:36
unpredictable moves that no human
01:36:38
Grandmaster ever could have come up with
01:36:41
and now these models are going to be
01:36:43
making similarly unpredictable leaps in
01:36:45
all sorts of
01:36:48
domains which you know hopefully will be
01:36:50
awesome but you know might not be yeah
01:36:53
well they're going to go around corners
01:36:54
that people might not have considered
01:36:55
that are non-intuitive and then just to
01:36:58
Circle back and do a little call back
01:36:59
here remember I asked which banks would
01:37:02
have the biggest chance of being
01:37:04
insolvent uh or having Financial
01:37:06
collapse or crisis tons of misspellings
01:37:08
in there as I typed it while we were
01:37:09
talking and you can see what deep M uh
01:37:11
deep research did here it went and said
01:37:14
here's what we're going to do we're
01:37:15
going to research a bunch of websites
01:37:16
and find a list of banks in the US find
01:37:18
top banks by us by asset for each one of
01:37:20
these Banks find their latest Financial
01:37:21
savings for each of these Banks find
01:37:23
their Capital adequacy ratios for each
01:37:26
of these Banks find their loan loss you
01:37:27
get the idea and then it went and it
01:37:29
analyzed and then it created a report
01:37:32
this took about 10 minutes and when you
01:37:34
look it created this final report here
01:37:36
where it gave a list chth of JP Morgan
01:37:39
Bank of America City Group yada yada it
01:37:42
did a an analysis of each one and at the
01:37:45
end you can see all the different
01:37:47
websites it pulled it was well over a
01:37:50
hundred websites that it pulled that's
01:37:51
inred live data
01:37:54
162 websites and you have to pay for
01:37:57
this but it's only $20 a month and it's
01:37:59
conclusion this analysis has provided a
01:38:01
snapshot of the financial health of some
01:38:02
of the largest US Banks while all banks
01:38:05
face inherent risk City Group in Wells
01:38:07
Fargo appear to be the highest risk of
01:38:08
insolvency of financial collapse
01:38:10
compared to JP mortgage Chase Bank of
01:38:12
America Goldman Sachs City groups recent
01:38:13
net loss lower c one ratio and high
01:38:16
exposure I mean just try looking at this
01:38:18
now I don't know how much of this is
01:38:19
correct I'm no expert on this but it
01:38:21
does seem like it's a pretty good start
01:38:23
of where it's getting to and if you
01:38:24
haven't used 1.5 Pro with deep research
01:38:27
just go to gemini.com I'm not being paid
01:38:30
to say this I just think it's the best
01:38:31
product in the
01:38:33
market and it's pretty darn impressive
01:38:36
okay my most anticipated trend for 2025
01:38:41
was alluded to in an earlier prediction
01:38:43
I think by Gavin himself mine is that uh
01:38:46
exits and DPI shower down uh and we'll
01:38:49
have this incredible uh distribution as
01:38:51
the wrath of lenina con ends and m&a and
01:38:53
and IPOs will surge that is my
01:38:57
prediction my most anticipated Trend
01:38:59
okay let's go to most anticipated media
01:39:02
I had two that I was working back and
01:39:04
forth from Jame James guns DC Universe
01:39:07
with Superman coming out this year I
01:39:09
think it's going to be amazing Andor
01:39:11
season 2 could be amazing I predict
01:39:13
they're going to do a clone wars live
01:39:15
action series if you don't know the
01:39:16
Clone Wars watch it with your kids it's
01:39:17
amazing animated series that takes place
01:39:19
during the prequels but I went with a a
01:39:22
little of a weird Choice here I think my
01:39:25
most anticipated media is seeing what
01:39:27
happens with Legacy Media Outlets owned
01:39:30
by billionaires Andor people who no
01:39:32
longer want to pick aide Washington Post
01:39:35
CNN and LA Times specifically are
01:39:37
steering towards the middle and trying
01:39:39
to get back to Classic journalism the
01:39:42
editors are revolting Karen swisser is
01:39:44
upset and uh they're adding some
01:39:47
rightwing voices it is going to be
01:39:49
popcorn time for everybody so enjoy
01:39:53
whatever you want to enjoy Star Wars I
01:39:55
got a little Star Wars for you with
01:39:56
Andro season 2 I got a little Superman
01:39:58
or you can watch the chaos in the
01:40:00
editorial newsrooms at Washington Post
01:40:02
and LA Times what do you got from most
01:40:04
anticipated media chath it is the
01:40:08
enormity of the files that are going to
01:40:12
get Declassified and released by the
01:40:13
Trump Administration I think it's going
01:40:16
to be unbelievably interesting salacious
01:40:21
useful good
01:40:24
Earnest all all of the above so the
01:40:28
JFK files the Epstein FES Diddy files
01:40:33
the moon landing who knows what they
01:40:36
find across all of these other Fringe
01:40:38
quote unquote conspiracy theories that
01:40:39
may turn out actually to have some shred
01:40:41
of truth but all of that let's call it
01:40:44
content for lack of a better word that
01:40:45
gets released in 2025 by the Trump
01:40:47
Administration I think will be
01:40:49
incredibly interesting what do you got
01:40:51
Dave media any anticipated media for you
01:40:53
what do you got I'm into AI video games
01:40:56
the cost of production comes way down
01:40:58
when you use Ai and you can have Dynamic
01:41:00
story lines you can have new gameplay
01:41:02
Concepts things that don't exist today I
01:41:05
think that the creative Talent Plus the
01:41:07
technical talent that you typically find
01:41:08
at development houses can be kind of
01:41:10
Unleashed with tools that have come to
01:41:12
come to Market recently we've seen a lot
01:41:13
of the generative video stuff but
01:41:15
there's also ways structurally that
01:41:17
video games can kind of be rebuilt where
01:41:18
the video game engine can run kind of
01:41:20
locally it can be generating parameters
01:41:23
that can then use an existing rendering
01:41:24
engine so you can have entirely new
01:41:26
story lines and entirely new kind of
01:41:28
plot sequences so I do think that
01:41:30
there's going to be a rewrite of video
01:41:32
games in the video game industry with
01:41:35
the V variety of AI kind of capabilities
01:41:37
that are hitting market now and uh it's
01:41:39
going to be incredible it's going to be
01:41:40
incredible entertainment people are GNA
01:41:42
people that don't play video games are
01:41:44
going to find stuff that they're going
01:41:45
to love Gavin most anticipating media
01:41:48
2025 unquestioned 1923 season 2 I'm
01:41:52
normally a science
01:41:54
fiction kind of fantasy or you
01:41:58
spy kind of guy when it comes to TV but
01:42:01
1883 and 1923 were the first TV shows
01:42:04
that kind of hit me the way Game of
01:42:05
Thrones did and I'm crazy excited for
01:42:07
that to come out fantastic are you
01:42:10
watching land man I'm enjoying landman
01:42:12
with I haven't watched it yet I'm
01:42:13
excited to try it it's quite fun quite
01:42:15
fun turns out this guy Taylor sharidan
01:42:17
he's I mean it's incredible he's in the
01:42:21
zone I highly Rec Day of the Jackal I
01:42:24
know chamath also loved Day of the
01:42:26
Jackal oh that was really good that was
01:42:28
really was a good that was a good J Sugg
01:42:30
for stre yeah I'm Jackal sakario yeah
01:42:34
absolutely what was our predictions for
01:42:37
for this last year last year shth
01:42:39
predicted Mr Beast freeberg AI generated
01:42:42
news I predicted Gladiator 2 and the
01:42:45
three body problem Gladiator 2 was mid
01:42:48
but okay three body problem I didn't
01:42:51
finish so I guess mid Jimmy
01:42:54
show on Amazon Prime the Mr Beast thing
01:42:56
was the top unscripted drama in 140 of
01:43:00
180 countries wow incredible all right
01:43:03
we're going to do our prediction markets
01:43:05
here I'm going to put up a prediction
01:43:07
Market which is based upon immigration
01:43:11
and the promise that Trump made to have
01:43:13
15 million people be deported from the
01:43:16
country I think in the first year I'm
01:43:18
going to set the over under at 5% of
01:43:20
that stated number which is 750,000
01:43:23
so after one year in office will Trump
01:43:28
have deported
01:43:31
750,000 less or more that's my first
01:43:33
prediction how are you going to measure
01:43:34
that you have to there has to be like a
01:43:36
a source of truth on these things right
01:43:38
well do it based on the White House's
01:43:40
reporting of deportations yeah it's
01:43:42
reasonable and we'll check with the poly
01:43:44
Market team if there's a way to do that
01:43:46
prediction Market obviously but I think
01:43:47
that was the biggest issue of the
01:43:48
election so I'm putting it up there with
01:43:50
just 5% in the first year yeah it is
01:43:52
interesting Obama deported I think more
01:43:54
than two million people it's like people
01:43:57
have forgotten but he was actually
01:43:59
really really tough on the border yeah
01:44:01
chamat do you have a prediction Market
01:44:02
you want to put up the magate
01:44:04
representation in the S&P 500
01:44:08
shrinks
01:44:10
below 30% oh that's a good one that's a
01:44:14
good one so dispersion would happen to
01:44:16
the other stocks less concentration
01:44:19
that's a good one so we'll finalize
01:44:20
these you'll be able to
01:44:23
I wanted to kind of play with was
01:44:25
Microsoft AWS and Google Cloud Revenue
01:44:27
growth who's going to win in growth in
01:44:30
2025 I don't know how closely you guys
01:44:32
crack but um I get a sense that Google
01:44:35
is kind of accelerating ahead Gavin I
01:44:37
don't know how much you've SP I mean
01:44:39
Google
01:44:41
is I wouldn't say they're a lot smaller
01:44:43
which makes it easier for them to grow
01:44:47
faster yeah
01:44:49
[Music]
01:44:50
um we talk about yeah I mean I I guess
01:44:54
um who has the largest gain dollar
01:44:57
dollar gain in Revenue in Cloud Revenue
01:45:00
in 2025 is it Google Amazon or
01:45:04
Microsoft well it probably won't be
01:45:06
Google because if they had the largest
01:45:07
dollar gain it would mean they were
01:45:08
growing at at insane rates but I think
01:45:12
Azure versus AWS will be
01:45:14
interesting oh I know the other one I
01:45:16
want you do which was the national debt
01:45:19
the national debt has grown about two
01:45:21
trillion per year
01:45:23
in each of the previous two
01:45:27
presidential administrations right so
01:45:29
over the last eight years we've gone up
01:45:30
over 16 trillion two trillion per year
01:45:32
average so I'm going to set it at
01:45:36
and Trump said he would not increase the
01:45:39
national debt I'll just set it at the
01:45:40
national debt increases 1 trillion in
01:45:43
the next year over under is that a good
01:45:46
prediction Market or is it should be two
01:45:48
trillion um yeah so what I would do is I
01:45:51
would set the Federal debt for December
01:45:54
the US Treasury Market report on federal
01:45:56
debt in
01:45:57
2025 and I would set it at 30 37
01:46:00
trillion and so you basically the US
01:46:02
Treasury um market report 20 December
01:46:06
2025 above or below 37 trillion it's
01:46:09
going to be above I mean let's just call
01:46:10
it 38 trillion then yeah you want to
01:46:13
basically in order to make this when you
01:46:16
set a line Dave it's got to be one where
01:46:19
people take either side of it it can't
01:46:20
be everybody takes we'll we'll do the US
01:46:22
Treasury Market market report December
01:46:24
2025 federal debt above 38 trillion or
01:46:27
below 38 trillion perfect which would be
01:46:30
how much added in the year about one and
01:46:31
a half yeah I love that I love that
01:46:34
that's a perfect one we'll see if he can
01:46:36
make any he can control the spending or
01:46:38
if it'll just be the same Gavin what's
01:46:40
your sense on federal debt next year I
01:46:41
think like most things it'll take like
01:46:43
immigration will'll take up time to get
01:46:44
going yeah it just it's going to take a
01:46:47
little bit of time but I think they will
01:46:49
make progress by the way at some point
01:46:52
if I'm here on the Allin again I want to
01:46:54
talk about UFOs and the
01:46:57
drones let's talk about it now do it
01:46:59
right now are you going full conspiracy
01:47:01
theorist are you are you trying to get
01:47:03
your seat here by being a little more
01:47:04
Alex Jones do you believe those drones
01:47:07
were aliens what's going on so I don't
01:47:09
know and I think it's very clear if you
01:47:11
look at all the um you know statements
01:47:13
from the New Jersey Mayors and governors
01:47:16
you know who've met with the police the
01:47:18
FBI the defense department that they
01:47:21
don't know now
01:47:23
you know Trump said someone in the
01:47:25
government knows what they are he also
01:47:27
said he was not going to go to
01:47:28
Bedminster anytime soon his Resort there
01:47:32
I just think over the last I'd say eight
01:47:35
years every 18 months there's a big
01:47:37
story in the New York Times the
01:47:39
Washington posts the New Yorker the
01:47:42
Atlantic very credible media
01:47:44
sources with dozens of interviews with
01:47:47
fighter pilots and commercial pilots
01:47:49
talking about seeing things with
01:47:50
Advanced sensors that made no sense to
01:47:52
them
01:47:54
and there's kind of a taboo that went
01:47:57
away there was an article in the New
01:47:59
Yorker where they quoted from a bunch of
01:48:02
people who were
01:48:04
at you know kind of the the Skunk Works
01:48:07
Laboratories in the 1950s and said they
01:48:09
absolutely
01:48:11
saw
01:48:12
extraterrestrial materials that have
01:48:14
been recovered from a crash it's one
01:48:16
reason the US made such big leaps in
01:48:18
Material
01:48:19
Science and um you know there was Mona
01:48:23
thing where essentially a lot of you
01:48:25
know astronomist said hey this is this
01:48:27
is clearly a UFO of some sort including
01:48:31
the head of astronomy at Harvard and
01:48:34
then just the conspiracy theory I would
01:48:37
have is if if if if
01:48:41
if these are actually UFOs and not you
01:48:45
know government drones either from the
01:48:48
United States or
01:48:49
China you know it seems like the most
01:48:51
likely explanation in New Jersey is at
01:48:53
some sort of a
01:48:55
drill and obviously once this hysteria
01:48:58
gets going people um you know
01:49:00
misidentify commercial airplanes as
01:49:04
drones and like why would UFOs have
01:49:06
blinking green and red lights but it is
01:49:09
just interesting that there was you know
01:49:11
a big concentration of these
01:49:14
reports as we were scaling into nuclear
01:49:16
technology 1945 to
01:49:19
1960 and then now that AI is getting
01:49:22
going which is the next kind of
01:49:23
technological phase shift for Humanity
01:49:26
there's another
01:49:27
big b of reports you can come back come
01:49:31
back next week you you won
01:49:34
congratulations we have our winner for
01:49:35
all in Idol Gavin is now the fourth best
01:49:39
I love this kind of
01:49:40
conspiracy but I mean come on I we how
01:49:42
do we make a poly Market out of this
01:49:44
freed I don't know
01:49:46
we are there are there documents that
01:49:49
you think Trump will release about the
01:49:51
past in terms if UFOs there must be just
01:49:53
an
01:49:54
entire spectrum of stuff that that could
01:49:57
be subject to Foya if we went after it
01:50:00
no yeah I mean I think it depends how
01:50:02
deeply it's classified and you know I'm
01:50:04
sure if the government doesn't want to
01:50:06
give it up um they won't give it
01:50:09
up but you know there's all the you know
01:50:11
there's all but you think but look let's
01:50:12
be honest you think that there are docks
01:50:15
like there there's documentation that
01:50:17
the US government has that there are
01:50:19
UFOs that there have been we just can't
01:50:21
explain it
01:50:23
yeah and you know they they call it uaps
01:50:25
now to make it you know not flying
01:50:27
saucers but it just feels like something
01:50:30
F what percentage chance do you put on
01:50:33
we have actual knowledge on a percentage
01:50:36
basis what percentage chance you put on
01:50:37
the government US government is sitting
01:50:39
on knowledge of extral 20% at least 20%
01:50:42
from chath what do you say gav I would
01:50:44
say 25 I would take the over on the 20
01:50:47
okay great so you think there's a a non
01:50:50
a significant small chance that this is
01:50:52
the case free ber sultant of science
01:50:54
what chance do you think there is this
01:50:57
government sitting on some
01:50:59
extraterrestrial life or proof of it
01:51:02
it's a longer conversation I don't have
01:51:03
time for this but I I gotta be honest I
01:51:05
don't um I I don't generally align with
01:51:07
the idea that like our very narrow range
01:51:11
of like understanding of technology and
01:51:14
biology kind of is what visits us or
01:51:19
would visit us I think that there's an
01:51:21
extension of information gathering that
01:51:25
doesn't require moving physical
01:51:27
biological life forms from one part of
01:51:29
the galaxy to another so I think that
01:51:31
the whole premise of like UFOs moving
01:51:34
bodies around is rooted in the current
01:51:36
state of Technology of
01:51:38
humanity which is the basis of Arthur
01:51:41
Clark's treatment of 2001 A Space
01:51:44
Odyssey not which was done before the
01:51:46
screenplay which was done before the
01:51:48
book and the treatment which you can buy
01:51:50
I think highlights this the best which
01:51:52
is eventually every civilization reaches
01:51:54
a sufficiently advanced level of
01:51:56
technology that you no longer need to
01:51:58
physically move the bodies of the the
01:52:01
biological organisms around that you
01:52:03
simply are gathering information and
01:52:05
affecting information because once you
01:52:06
have the ability to convert any molecule
01:52:08
into any other molecule and you have
01:52:10
access to sufficient energy which you
01:52:12
will eventually evolve to be able to do
01:52:14
you can basically turn your local part
01:52:15
of the universe into anything you want
01:52:16
it to turn into and then you're simply
01:52:18
gathering information from all over the
01:52:20
rest of the universe so I would argue
01:52:23
that there doesn't really make a lot of
01:52:25
basic sense in why alien bodies would
01:52:27
want to move around the
01:52:28
Galaxy I'm just saying it right now if
01:52:31
Trump releases information on
01:52:34
extraterrestrial life I voting for him
01:52:37
to have a third ter I'm putting it out
01:52:38
there I'm going full Maga he gets a
01:52:40
third term for me with changing the
01:52:41
Constitution this has been another
01:52:43
amazing episode of the all in one last
01:52:45
question for Gavin one oh well forg okay
01:52:48
do you think extraterrestrial life built
01:52:51
the pyramids
01:52:53
is that the most plausible explanation
01:52:55
to the accuracy I don't know it is it is
01:52:59
so strange the way there are you know in
01:53:03
so many I would say cultures all over
01:53:05
the world
01:53:07
pre you know we are closer in
01:53:10
time to Cleopatra than she was to the
01:53:13
time of the Great Pyramids like there
01:53:14
was a long time ago but it's just weird
01:53:17
that in so many cultures all over the
01:53:19
world there are these depictions of what
01:53:21
looked like astronauts
01:53:24
and then there's all these Renaissance
01:53:26
Era paintings that clearly show what we
01:53:29
would call UFOs in the Skies over
01:53:34
cities so I don't know I just think it's
01:53:36
I'm with you I love conspiracy Gavin
01:53:39
this has
01:53:42
been if you're if you're Jason if you're
01:53:45
a questioning person these things create
01:53:47
these weird un you know open Loops that
01:53:50
it's like hard simulation so fully I'm
01:53:53
fully vested in this anyway Free's got
01:53:55
to drive back free BG's driving home I
01:53:57
think the pyramids the best most
01:53:58
credible thing I saw on the pyramids was
01:54:00
that they used water and they raised
01:54:02
water in channels so they put them on
01:54:04
wood slats or something and then they
01:54:06
would raise like um in like the um
01:54:09
Panama Canal they would do canals and
01:54:11
Float them up and then place them and
01:54:13
then release the water which you know
01:54:15
sounds great to me this has been another
01:54:17
amazing episode of the Allin podcast and
01:54:21
thank you to everybody let's have an
01:54:23
amazing 2025 to
01:54:25
everybody all kick let's kick ass 2025
01:54:28
let's take all we'll see you all next
01:54:31
time byebye bye
01:54:34
bye let your winners
01:54:37
ride Rainman
01:54:41
David and in said we open source it to
01:54:43
the fans and they've just gone crazy
01:54:45
with it love queen of
01:54:50
[Music]
01:54:55
besties
01:54:55
[Music]
01:54:57
are my dog taking your
01:55:00
driveway man oh man myit will meet me we
01:55:05
should all just get a room and just have
01:55:07
one big huge orgy cuz they're all this
01:55:09
useless it's like this like sexual
01:55:10
tension that they just need to release
01:55:18
somehow we need to get mer
01:55:22
[Music]
01:55:28
I'm going all in
