00:00:00
all right everybody welcome back to the
00:00:01
Allin podcast the number one podcast in
00:00:04
the world episode
00:00:06
173 it's objectively freedberg the
00:00:08
number one podcast I checked I looked
00:00:10
online and uh things are cooking over
00:00:13
here uh so much so that you may have
00:00:15
heard we hired a new
00:00:17
CEO welcome to the team our new fifth
00:00:21
bestie John H yeah go clap everybody
00:00:24
let's get in there with our golf clop
00:00:26
yes all right John welcome to the
00:00:29
program your first day was April 1st it
00:00:31
wasn't a joke literally was your first
00:00:33
day how has week one as CEO for all in
00:00:39
bin it has been wonderful super Dynamic
00:00:43
really happy to be a part of the team
00:00:45
all right there you have it sax you were
00:00:48
a huge driver of this you spent so much
00:00:51
time interviewing everybody going
00:00:53
through the resumés checking the
00:00:55
references you know and you you really
00:00:57
spearheaded this oh wait you did nothing
00:00:59
I forgot it's it's spelled j o n John
00:01:03
wait who is this s is John who is this
00:01:06
okay you guys haven't
00:01:09
metnet nice to meet you
00:01:13
likewise let your winners
00:01:15
[Music]
00:01:17
ride
00:01:20
David and in said we open source it to
00:01:23
the fans and they've just gone crazy
00:01:26
[Music]
00:01:28
with so John worked at the Russian
00:01:31
Embassy this is just a coincidence
00:01:33
couple Russian references but he worked
00:01:34
as an intern uh for Putin somehow he
00:01:37
wound up getting the Dig uh freeberg you
00:01:40
actually led the the the
00:01:42
incredible search here and we had
00:01:45
hundreds of people apply why do you
00:01:47
think um we wound up with Mr hell here
00:01:50
yeah we had a lot of folks and we met
00:01:51
with a lot of folks but John really
00:01:53
stood out
00:01:54
with I think his experience and his
00:01:57
thoughtfulness about what we can do so
00:01:59
so much of our work off the show
00:02:02
obviously has gone into putting on the
00:02:04
all-in summit and we want to do more
00:02:06
Live Events and John has a very strong
00:02:09
background in building incredible live
00:02:12
experiences and events which we think is
00:02:14
going to be a really important extension
00:02:16
I think we've we realized over the last
00:02:18
two Summits how much Community matters
00:02:20
for Allin and how much getting people
00:02:21
together matters and how much the live
00:02:24
content mattered and so we want to do
00:02:25
more of that and hopefully John can take
00:02:27
us to the promised land Fant John thanks
00:02:31
for thanks for saying yes it's awesome
00:02:32
to have you yeah all right and uh as
00:02:34
John's first first Duty he is going to
00:02:38
next week announce the details of the
00:02:41
Allin Summit 2024 our third edition
00:02:44
chairman dictator trth ptia you've been
00:02:47
running all in with an iron fist in the
00:02:50
group chat your thoughts on John and
00:02:54
working with him and why we selected him
00:02:57
the Iron Fist please
00:02:58
go I think that
00:03:02
there's a really important Trend that we
00:03:06
have stumbled
00:03:08
into which is that content creators are
00:03:12
the modern form of demand
00:03:15
generation for whatever else it is that
00:03:17
you're going to consume and I think it
00:03:19
replaces advertising and I think it
00:03:21
displaces traditional
00:03:23
content and so I was really interested
00:03:26
in finding somebody that understood how
00:03:28
to connect those thoughts and all of the
00:03:30
different ways in which we can explore
00:03:33
what our brand is capable of
00:03:35
and I thought he was the best example of
00:03:38
having done one thing extremely well at
00:03:41
scale and curious enough to figure out
00:03:43
the other parts so you know I'm really
00:03:45
excited to work with John yeah and I'll
00:03:47
just add to that you know I've been
00:03:49
doing events my whole life and when I
00:03:50
saw John's actual event history in the
00:03:53
events you've thrown John really
00:03:56
spectacular in the detail and I think
00:03:58
you're going to the same way freeberg
00:04:00
leveled up year two of the conference
00:04:02
I'm I'm really excited to see how you
00:04:03
put your stamp on it and level up year
00:04:05
three couple of housekeeping things here
00:04:07
uh you know we are by the way sorry can
00:04:09
I say one thing what you said there is
00:04:12
so much room to build real communities
00:04:16
and I think people are just so tired and
00:04:20
bored with everything online
00:04:24
so I think offline experiences will be a
00:04:27
huge value ad in people's lives
00:04:30
yeah there's definitely a bridge from
00:04:32
online to offline and the the Allin
00:04:35
meetups that Ray's been hosting the best
00:04:38
example example the best example of at
00:04:41
scale of online to offline are dating
00:04:44
apps and all I can see is that's a
00:04:46
pretty dissatisfying experience for a
00:04:48
lot of people and so outside of dating
00:04:50
apps there aren't many really great
00:04:52
examples where like-minded people can
00:04:55
hang out and have fun and you know talk
00:04:59
learn
00:05:00
party it's really interesting you bring
00:05:02
this up I just finished John um hates
00:05:05
new book uh the anxious generation I
00:05:07
don't know if you've listened to it but
00:05:08
there's a pair of books out right now
00:05:10
bad therapy and uh this one about kids
00:05:13
and the premise of this book shth is
00:05:16
screen time as you referred to you know
00:05:19
people being
00:05:20
online not only is it bad for kids and
00:05:23
adults it's also blocking to your point
00:05:26
real world connection and so we all want
00:05:29
a little more real world connection and
00:05:30
so John welcome to the
00:05:32
team additionally I'll just uh two more
00:05:35
housekeeping items here and then we'll
00:05:36
get to the show we're going to have a 1
00:05:37
million subscriber party if you want to
00:05:39
be part of that 1 million subscriber
00:05:41
party you can increase your chances
00:05:42
we're not announcing how we're going to
00:05:44
give the tickets away but you can
00:05:45
increase your chances by going to
00:05:47
YouTube right now pause the show
00:05:49
subscribe to the all-in podcast Channel
00:05:51
hit the Bell so you get the alert for
00:05:53
the best chance at getting one of the
00:05:54
golden tickets to the 1 million
00:05:55
subscriber party and we are at 486,000
00:05:59
when we add 14,000 more we're going to
00:06:01
do a live Q&A with all the besties so
00:06:05
get in on that as well John uh any any
00:06:07
parting thoughts here or comments uh
00:06:09
which bestie has been the most difficult
00:06:12
in to work with in the first month which
00:06:14
one has been the most delightful go it's
00:06:16
been a pleasure across the board I think
00:06:19
you know part of the beauty of the show
00:06:20
is that there are so many different
00:06:22
personalities and viewpoints and really
00:06:24
happy to be part of the team excited for
00:06:26
what we're going to continue building
00:06:27
how diplomatic who's been the worst to
00:06:29
deal with who's been the terror be
00:06:30
honest tell them I'm you know to we'll
00:06:33
talk about it in your oneye review all
00:06:35
right John great job you likely you
00:06:39
who's been the most neurotic likely
00:06:40
freeberg who's been the most value ad
00:06:43
likely me and who's been the
00:06:45
most the most unresponsive I've been the
00:06:48
easiest to deal with the easiest to
00:06:51
that's why I get two votes say my proxy
00:06:54
yeah exactly I mean it's it's just wild
00:06:56
what's going on here it really is Game
00:06:58
of Thrones and you have been put in the
00:07:00
center of it John congratulations
00:07:03
welcome to the Iron Throne watch your
00:07:05
back all right dismiss
00:07:08
John let us know how we could be helpful
00:07:11
salute to you John much guys we got to
00:07:14
get going here we got a big show for you
00:07:16
everybody welcome to the show officially
00:07:19
David Sachs your Rainman sha chairman
00:07:23
dictator sulan of science David freberg
00:07:26
I'm the world's greatest moderator
00:07:29
Welcome to the program a quick
00:07:30
correction up top that many of you in
00:07:33
the crypto space let us know about
00:07:35
immediately after the episode dropped we
00:07:38
talked about SPF getting 25 years uh and
00:07:41
that broke right as we started the show
00:07:44
and we discussed that the customers of
00:07:46
FTX were going to get made whole there's
00:07:47
been a lot of speculation about them
00:07:49
being made
00:07:51
whole however there was an important
00:07:54
note FTX depositors are getting paid
00:07:56
back in US Dollars not the crypto that
00:07:59
dollar amount we've learned is based on
00:08:02
the price of their tokens at the
00:08:03
bankruptcy date the bankruptcy date was
00:08:04
November 11th in 2022 super
00:08:07
important because the report that
00:08:11
started the run on FTX was published in
00:08:12
November 2nd there's a couple of days in
00:08:14
between those two dates and a bunch of
00:08:17
crypto plummeted salana dropped uh 50%
00:08:20
between November 5th and November 11th
00:08:22
that's just one example but since then
00:08:24
salana has been up 11x and bitcoin's up
00:08:27
4X ethereum doubled so if you one of
00:08:29
these depositors you miss that runup and
00:08:33
so FDX customers were rightfully Furious
00:08:36
I'll pause there before I get into more
00:08:38
details any any thoughts on this sex
00:08:41
yeah I mean just to hit the nail on the
00:08:43
head here if you had left your salana at
00:08:47
FTX you're going to get $16 per token
00:08:50
back and that apparently was the price
00:08:54
at the time that they went under so
00:08:56
according to the the judicial proced
00:08:59
seedings you've been quote unquote made
00:09:01
whole but the truth is that Salo at this
00:09:03
moment is trading at $188 so you have
00:09:06
not been made whole and this is why the
00:09:08
crypto Community is furious and so that
00:09:10
that basically is the correction now I
00:09:13
thought it was interesting that the
00:09:14
judge played into this notion and we
00:09:17
talked about that quote from the judge
00:09:19
last week where he said that if you go
00:09:21
to Vegas abcon with your customers money
00:09:24
gamble it and then pay them off with the
00:09:26
winnings then you still committed a
00:09:28
crime he seemed to be conceding this
00:09:31
idea that the investors or or the
00:09:33
depositors at FTX have been made whole
00:09:35
clearly they have not been but his quote
00:09:37
kind of Lent Credence to that and the
00:09:40
reason the judge was talking about it is
00:09:41
because SP spf's lawyers were clearly
00:09:43
making this argument that his sentence
00:09:46
should be commuted or reduced because
00:09:50
the depositors had been made whole and I
00:09:52
think what you saw in the media coverage
00:09:54
is that the reporters were buying into
00:09:57
this idea of depositors being whole I
00:09:59
mean you guys got this from somewhere
00:10:02
right I mean this is what the media
00:10:03
coverage so the media the media was
00:10:05
doing what it's been doing throughout
00:10:07
the FTX case which is carrying water for
00:10:10
S SPF and I believe that this narrative
00:10:13
that they're trying to concoct which we
00:10:15
now know is completely false is designed
00:10:18
to serve a purpose and I think that
00:10:19
purpose is to get SP SPF either pardoned
00:10:23
or have his sentence commuted because Mr
00:10:27
bankman and Miss freed are huge Democrat
00:10:29
atic party bundlers and I think the goal
00:10:32
here is to create the idea in the
00:10:34
Public's mind that people weren't really
00:10:36
hurt by this this was just sort of
00:10:39
youthful indiscretion or hij Jinks and
00:10:43
you know was a bunch of H Jinks right
00:10:46
Shenanigans but Shenanigans were no one
00:10:48
was really hurt and if they can create
00:10:49
that impression in the Public's mind
00:10:52
they can now set up getting one of their
00:10:54
Democratic party connections to help
00:10:57
push for a commutation of the sence I
00:10:59
think there's a narrative going on I
00:11:01
think there's an agenda behind the
00:11:03
narrative and it's what I'm saying here
00:11:06
yeah this pardon power is really
00:11:07
powerful choth any any thoughts here on
00:11:09
the bankruptcy judge making that call to
00:11:12
sell the chairs because obviously if
00:11:15
crypto had tanked since that time it
00:11:17
would look like he saved the money by
00:11:18
selling them clearing the positions and
00:11:19
giving them cash what what is the right
00:11:21
thing for the bankruptcy judge to do
00:11:24
here keep the equities I the tokens or
00:11:27
to sell it and freeze it in time
00:11:29
it seems like a very different hold on J
00:11:32
we got to correct that for just in a
00:11:33
certain way so the trustee has been
00:11:36
selling the tokens post runup the point
00:11:39
is that he's selling tokens at current
00:11:42
prices call it 188 and then using that
00:11:45
to pay off depositors at $16 so the only
00:11:49
reason the depositors have been quote
00:11:50
unquote made whole is because they're
00:11:52
getting the benefit of this runup but
00:11:54
they're not paying them back at the
00:11:56
price of their salana today they're
00:11:58
paying them at this price that got fixed
00:12:00
at the time of the bankruptcy so the
00:12:03
truth is this is why no one's getting
00:12:05
made whole yeah this is the you know the
00:12:07
really hard thing to track here because
00:12:09
we couldn't find when they were selling
00:12:11
it or how much they've been selling this
00:12:12
seems to be being done in the shadows or
00:12:15
in the background and so if anybody out
00:12:17
there as we crowdsource what's going on
00:12:19
here wants to keep us up to date let us
00:12:22
know but yeah these tokens some number
00:12:25
of them got sold at a low price some of
00:12:26
them are getting sold I guess as time
00:12:28
goes on shath your just thoughts on how
00:12:31
to do this properly what's the proper
00:12:33
hygiene here I mean it's we're noty
00:12:36
experts that's a great question I don't
00:12:38
know the differences between chapter 7
00:12:41
and chapter 11 bankruptcy law but I
00:12:44
don't know what was filed here was it
00:12:46
chapter 7 or chapter 11 I don't I don't
00:12:49
know but it seems that this was the only
00:12:53
thing that they could do which was to
00:12:55
liquidate into a common you know unit of
00:12:58
measure
00:12:59
because at the end of the day their
00:13:02
Auditors had to measure in a standard
00:13:04
unit and that was probably the US dollar
00:13:06
and so then they were trying to work
00:13:08
backwards from that shareholder Equity
00:13:11
number to get them back to that number
00:13:13
so yeah it was kind of logical that that
00:13:16
this is the only thing they could do and
00:13:18
I guess they benefited from the fact
00:13:21
that there was a runup but it's really
00:13:22
unfortunate for folks so I don't know
00:13:24
maybe in other countries had this been a
00:13:26
differently constituted company
00:13:28
organized in a different Place Banky law
00:13:30
could have allowed the Liquidator to
00:13:32
actually just distribute the assets on a
00:13:33
Prat
00:13:35
basis this was a
00:13:37
chapter hold I got the update here this
00:13:40
is a chapter 11 and in September the
00:13:42
judge allowed FTX to start liquidating
00:13:44
up to 100 million a week Delaware right
00:13:47
this is a chapter 11 Delaware filing
00:13:50
yeah chapter 11 in Delaware correct and
00:13:52
this could increase to 20000 million a
00:13:53
week so it seems like they did they did
00:13:55
start the liquidation later so they
00:13:57
might have caught some of the runup so
00:13:58
if they did catch the run up then you
00:13:59
could be doubly upset right no my point
00:14:02
my point is in different in different
00:14:03
situations one could imagine where the
00:14:06
shareholders could have been allowed to
00:14:08
vote do you want money or do you want in
00:14:11
kind and if in kind maybe you get a Prat
00:14:14
distribution of all the assets which
00:14:16
would have included a whole bunch of
00:14:18
these coins but then it probably would
00:14:20
have included a bunch
00:14:21
of other assets not just salana and
00:14:24
Bitcoin and eth that ripped so I think
00:14:27
the point is that if they had
00:14:28
distributed kind meaning tokens that
00:14:31
people would have seen oh wait I only
00:14:33
got back on10th the number of tokens
00:14:34
that I put in that's the point right
00:14:37
yeah you put in a 100 salana tokens you
00:14:39
only get back call it roughly 10 because
00:14:42
the the price of those tokens was fixed
00:14:43
at 16 and they can now sell at somewhere
00:14:46
between 100 and 200 they're able to
00:14:49
quote make you whole at the $16 price
00:14:51
but that's not being made whole what are
00:14:53
they doing with the extra money sacks
00:14:55
because are they using that to make
00:14:57
other people in this whole Trader hole
00:14:59
as well so maybe they're thinking
00:15:01
holistically they're taking the profits
00:15:02
of those Salon holders let's say or
00:15:04
Bitcoin holders wi Forex and is that
00:15:06
going to trickle down to the equity
00:15:08
holders who knows freeberg you have
00:15:09
thoughts here yeah I think the plan is
00:15:12
that that excess Capital beyond what is
00:15:14
quote owed to the account holders goes
00:15:16
to the equity holders because it's
00:15:18
considered excess of the liabilities
00:15:21
therefore it goes to the shareholders I
00:15:22
I'll also say in a traditional like
00:15:26
brokerage you create an account and when
00:15:29
you set up an account your account has a
00:15:31
currency denomination it's a dollar
00:15:34
based account or a Euro based account
00:15:36
and then you your account holds a bunch
00:15:38
of assets and so at any given time the
00:15:41
value of your account is represented to
00:15:43
you in that local currency the challenge
00:15:46
with crypto exchanges is that there's
00:15:48
often this representation of a wallet
00:15:50
which is meant to hold assets that don't
00:15:52
necessarily have the intention of being
00:15:54
translated into a locally denominated
00:15:56
currency and so I think that's what
00:15:58
makes this system different in the case
00:16:00
of a US exchange bankruptcy and this
00:16:02
happens in commodity trading accounts or
00:16:04
commodity exchanges often there's a
00:16:06
freezing of the assets and then a
00:16:07
liquidation of the assets where the
00:16:09
freezing of the assets sets the the
00:16:11
price or the value at the moment of what
00:16:13
you're supposed to hold in that account
00:16:16
in your currency of your account right
00:16:18
and so the the bankruptcy judge and the
00:16:20
trustee are treating this like a
00:16:23
liquidation process using a local
00:16:25
currency that was set at the time
00:16:28
whereas many folks don't consider that
00:16:30
the intention of the account that the
00:16:32
account was meant to hold assets that
00:16:34
it's really a portfolio of assets that
00:16:36
shouldn't be liquidated to try and
00:16:38
generate local currency because that's
00:16:39
kind of the whole point of many of these
00:16:40
crypto currencies themselves it was a
00:16:43
custodial account basically right a
00:16:46
custodial account of assets versus a
00:16:49
trading account of which is meant to
00:16:52
ultimately be converted back into a
00:16:53
local currency which is typical and I
00:16:56
think that's what makes this such a
00:16:58
challenging
00:16:59
process yeah just liquidate everything
00:17:02
pool of money arrives distribute the
00:17:04
money
00:17:05
but the way bankruptcy works is that
00:17:08
there's a pecking order that essentially
00:17:10
you you have all the assets of the
00:17:11
company the job of the trustee is to
00:17:14
liquidate them they have a fiduciary
00:17:15
duty to get the highest price they can
00:17:17
for those assets we have no reason to
00:17:18
believe that they haven't they seem to
00:17:20
have waited a decent enough amount of
00:17:22
time to get to benefit from this crypto
00:17:24
recovery and then what happens is again
00:17:27
there's like a pecking order for the
00:17:28
distribution of the proceeds and you're
00:17:30
going to have debt holders they're going
00:17:32
to be senior to the equity holders the
00:17:35
depositors are going to be high up there
00:17:37
as well government agencies that are
00:17:39
owed fines are going to be high up there
00:17:41
there's going to be a very specific
00:17:42
pecking order in which the equity
00:17:43
holders are last you want to go into
00:17:45
conspiracy corner and put our chin foil
00:17:47
hats on you mentioned the IRS the cftc
00:17:50
right these government agencies are
00:17:52
owned like over $20 billion if all this
00:17:55
crypto profits at they're higher in the
00:17:58
stack they would be going directly to
00:17:59
the government and the government is
00:18:00
handing the process here so it doesn't
00:18:02
look right but I don't I don't think I
00:18:03
don't think it's that's driving it I
00:18:05
think that I think bankruptcy rules are
00:18:08
very specific and they're completely
00:18:10
designed around again
00:18:14
assessing what the value of each
00:18:17
claimant is at the time of bankruptcy
00:18:19
and then creating a pecking order for
00:18:21
distribution so I I don't think there's
00:18:23
any Foul Play here I think that this is
00:18:26
just the way that the cookie crumbles
00:18:28
but I think that it's simply wrong or
00:18:32
misleading to say that the depositors
00:18:34
were made whole and I think the reason
00:18:37
we thought that is because of these
00:18:40
statements that were promulgated through
00:18:42
the media including the judge to give
00:18:43
people that impression and I think it
00:18:46
really just underscores that the media
00:18:48
always has an agenda and you got to be
00:18:50
so careful about em bibing their
00:18:53
narratives because without knowing
00:18:56
exactly what their agenda is you can
00:18:58
invive their bias yeah my understanding
00:19:01
of bankruptcy is like they they they can
00:19:03
get a little bit creative and the
00:19:05
bankruptcy judges can be a little
00:19:07
creative and trying to holistically
00:19:09
think about what's the best thing for
00:19:10
the business and all the stakeholder
00:19:11
shareholders but anyway we'll keep
00:19:13
monitoring it and like um we've said
00:19:16
before anytime we make a mistake we're
00:19:17
going to talk about it right up front
00:19:19
anytime there's an Omission or breaking
00:19:21
news happens we're going to fill you in
00:19:23
and uh that leads us to our second topic
00:19:25
some more news broke about truth social
00:19:27
we had a nice spicy discussion about it
00:19:29
last week since that time shares of
00:19:33
tmtg or dollar sign djt have dropped
00:19:37
30% and uh the numbers for their revenue
00:19:40
also confirmed and came out it's pretty
00:19:42
ugly 4 million in Revenue 58 million in
00:19:44
losses floats only 30 million shares but
00:19:47
there are some follow-up stories here
00:19:49
we'll get into Trump is suing the two
00:19:51
co-founders to reduce their combined 8.6
00:19:53
state to Z his argument as co-founders
00:19:55
set the company up improperly and
00:19:56
mishandled the launch of Tru social so
00:19:58
they should forfeit their stock these
00:20:00
are both co-founders previously on The
00:20:02
Apprentice Trump owns 60% and he stands
00:20:05
for reing ear out of 36 million
00:20:07
additional shares in the coming week uh
00:20:09
worth almost two billion so huge
00:20:11
windfall for president Trump coming in
00:20:14
addition to that SS you're going to love
00:20:16
this Russia Russia Russia the guardian
00:20:17
is reporting tmtg raised $8 million in
00:20:21
emergency funding that might have
00:20:23
possibly come from a Russian linked
00:20:25
entity the spa uh while it was on hold
00:20:29
was running out of cash Russia link en
00:20:31
uh you read this all about this in the
00:20:33
guardian they tried to raise some money
00:20:34
they wound up raising 8 million across
00:20:36
two convertable notes from a bank called
00:20:38
paxum located in the Caribbean owned by
00:20:41
a Russian who is reportedly the nephew
00:20:44
of Alexander schroff who used to work in
00:20:47
Putin's executive office until 2017 is
00:20:50
this a joke no I I I I mean I I wish it
00:20:52
was a joke because I know I'm going to
00:20:54
get barbecued for like by the by the
00:20:56
Trump supporters in the comments but it
00:20:59
is crazy that the Russians are what is
00:21:01
the Russians name Alexander schof isn't
00:21:04
that the name of a vodka it kind of ism
00:21:07
I noov shirov maybe shov Trump doesn't
00:21:10
even drink I mean maybe yeah I don't
00:21:12
know if Putin drinks or not anyway Trump
00:21:16
doesn't drink Putin doesn't drink either
00:21:17
oh Trump doesn't drink that's true yeah
00:21:20
if
00:21:21
the oh really is that true yeah so
00:21:25
anyway important caveats to all this
00:21:27
stuff uh interesting story though
00:21:29
there's no indication that Trump or
00:21:30
Trump media had any idea about the
00:21:32
nature of these loans Cu uh they were
00:21:34
opaque and uh Trump media says it's
00:21:38
propaganda and false narrative your
00:21:40
thoughts on the Trump sa sacks and and
00:21:43
Russia I know it's your favorite topic
00:21:44
well we're it's going to be a really
00:21:46
long seven months if we're going to
00:21:49
bring up every one of these
00:21:50
evidence-free stories of some sort of
00:21:52
Russia connection to Trump I mean this
00:21:54
article doesn't even make sense like you
00:21:56
said here's the giveaway in the middle
00:21:57
of the article they say the guardian
00:21:59
does quote there is no indication that
00:22:02
Trump or Trump media had any idea about
00:22:04
the nature of the loans beyond that they
00:22:05
were opaque nor has the company or its
00:22:08
Executives been accused of wrongdoing so
00:22:10
then what are we talking about here does
00:22:12
there some guy with a Russian sounding
00:22:14
last name I mean literally that's the
00:22:16
story it doesn't even make sense I don't
00:22:18
understand how you can get alone and not
00:22:20
know who your counterparty is so this
00:22:22
whole thing just seems like it's part of
00:22:24
the milu of let's create any connections
00:22:28
we can between Trump and Russia and the
00:22:32
giveaway on this was actually a New York
00:22:34
Times story that just came out in the
00:22:36
past week it was called Russia amps up
00:22:38
online campaign against Ukraine before
00:22:40
us elections
00:22:41
now the interesting thing about this
00:22:44
story is that it was reporting
00:22:47
allegations by Clint Watts who has
00:22:51
apparently been hired by Microsoft to
00:22:55
run something called the threat analysis
00:22:57
Center and job basically is to find
00:23:00
Russian interference in the election now
00:23:03
here's what I found interesting about
00:23:04
this is that Clint Watts that that name
00:23:07
rang a bell for me and it's because
00:23:10
Clint Watts was involved in the Twitter
00:23:13
files so back in January of last year
00:23:19
Matt taibe broke this story in the
00:23:21
Twitter
00:23:22
files that Clint Watts was running the
00:23:26
Hamilton 68 dashboard he was basically
00:23:29
behind that project he's a former FBI
00:23:30
agent what was Hamilton 68 Hamilton 68
00:23:34
claimed that it was tracking 500 Russian
00:23:37
accounts on social media who were
00:23:39
engaged in manipulation of online
00:23:43
discourse well as it turns out
00:23:45
Executives inside of Twitter knew who
00:23:47
these accounts were and they were just
00:23:49
American accounts some Canadian accounts
00:23:51
and in the words of Twitter Executives
00:23:53
the whole Hamilton 68 dashboard was
00:23:56
that was their word
00:23:59
and nevertheless this Hamilton 68
00:24:01
project that Clint Watts ran put out
00:24:03
story after Story for years about how
00:24:06
the Russians were meddling in American
00:24:09
political debates and these stories the
00:24:11
Hamilton 68 claims became the basis for
00:24:14
thousands literally thousands of
00:24:17
mainstream media stories claiming that
00:24:19
Russia was interfering in American
00:24:21
politics it all turned out to be a total
00:24:24
hoax a total fraud now the amazing thing
00:24:27
to me is you would think after an expose
00:24:29
like this that it would at least be
00:24:32
mentioned in the New York Times that the
00:24:34
person they're quoting as saying that
00:24:37
the Russians are meddling in our
00:24:38
elections has a previous history of
00:24:41
setting up Russia hoaxes and they don't
00:24:45
even mention that despite the taiii
00:24:47
story moreover it's amazing to me that
00:24:51
this Watts guy not only landed on his
00:24:53
feet he got a cushy job at Microsoft
00:24:56
running their threats analysis Center
00:24:57
said could put out more of this threat
00:25:00
analysis on how the Russians were
00:25:01
meddling I can't imagine a less
00:25:03
qualified person to be describing Russia
00:25:06
threats than somebody who was caught
00:25:08
red-handed manufacturing bogus threats
00:25:11
for years free your so in any event
00:25:13
Jason I would just say that you know
00:25:15
going back to the S SPF story The
00:25:17
takeaway there is be careful what you're
00:25:20
em bibing from the mainstream media
00:25:22
because there's always an agenda and
00:25:25
until this story about Tru social from
00:25:27
the guardian has a little bit more
00:25:29
detail to it that makes sense to me I'm
00:25:31
just going to put it in the category of
00:25:33
more the same yeah and you know that as
00:25:35
I've said on this program before
00:25:37
Russia's explicit strategies just put
00:25:38
their fingerprints on everything and
00:25:40
cause chaos like they did with the
00:25:42
internet research agency and all the
00:25:44
trolling they were doing the last couple
00:25:45
of Elections freeberg your thoughts on
00:25:47
this you concerned about the
00:25:48
interference in the election I'm not
00:25:51
GNA thoughts on this yeah this is this
00:25:54
is nothing I feel like I should be
00:25:56
thoughtful about okay sounds good all
00:25:58
right then wrapping up I had mentioned
00:26:00
the last episode about the insider
00:26:02
trading charges in the company that was
00:26:05
the spa before they
00:26:07
purchased truth social and the three two
00:26:12
of the three men have been charged with
00:26:13
insider trading just pleaded guilty so
00:26:16
Michael and Gerald
00:26:18
schatman made 23 million illicit profits
00:26:21
trading shares of DW AC before the
00:26:22
merger was announced that each plad
00:26:24
guilty to one count of Securities fraud
00:26:27
face 3 to five years neither was
00:26:29
involved with truth this is the spack
00:26:32
that came before truth and there it is
00:26:35
folks so there's your update what's the
00:26:37
relevance of this to being a top issue
00:26:38
on the all-in Pod I just think this is
00:26:40
going to be a really long seven I think
00:26:41
it's going be a really long seven months
00:26:43
for us till the election if we're going
00:26:44
to bring up every mainstream media story
00:26:47
that seeks to create a connection
00:26:48
between this MRE media this is an SEC
00:26:50
filing yeah this one has nothing to do
00:26:53
with Russia this is the insider trading
00:26:54
one but you just said it has no
00:26:56
connection to True social so why we even
00:26:58
talking no no it's these are the people
00:27:00
who traded the stock before truth social
00:27:04
merged with it this is the spack that
00:27:05
truth social and they traded when they
00:27:07
found out that Trump was going to be the
00:27:09
spec that was merged with so I'm just
00:27:11
following closing the loop on that
00:27:12
breaking news Google is reportedly
00:27:14
considering making an offer to hire
00:27:15
acquire HubSpot creating a $34 billion
00:27:18
market cap this just came out reported
00:27:20
by Reuters who cited Anonymous sources
00:27:22
shares up 7% on the news if you don't
00:27:25
know HubSpot it's awesome tool we use it
00:27:27
uh CRM that blend Marketing sales
00:27:28
customer service all that kind of good
00:27:31
stuff and so here's their quarterly
00:27:33
Revenue since IPO they've been public
00:27:36
for 10 years as you pointed out in the
00:27:37
group chat Friedberg and this has been
00:27:39
slow and steady Revenue power of SAS I
00:27:42
guess and a great product I'm not a
00:27:44
shareholder here's the quarterly Revenue
00:27:46
growth on a year-over-year
00:27:47
basis stock chart yada yada chath I
00:27:51
guess this is something we've been
00:27:52
talking about here which is m&a and m&a
00:27:55
being pushed into the coal Plunge
00:27:58
and being frozen and now we see
00:28:00
something like this what what do you
00:28:01
take from this if it's in fact a true
00:28:03
report I mean I think it's a bit of an
00:28:04
odd acquisition and the reason is that
00:28:07
it's become pretty clear for all of big
00:28:09
Tech that any acquisition that they do
00:28:12
is going to be highly scrutinized and so
00:28:15
just from an EV expected value
00:28:18
perspective if you're going to try to
00:28:20
acquire something and spend the next
00:28:22
year beating your head against
00:28:24
Regulators why not do it for something
00:28:26
that's really valuable and I would not
00:28:29
characterize HubSpot as strategically
00:28:31
valuable for Google I think it's an
00:28:33
important ecosystem player and it's
00:28:35
probably better off as an independent
00:28:37
company so if I were Google I'd be
00:28:38
trying to buy something much more useful
00:28:40
like perplexity or something H freeberg
00:28:44
your thoughts on this first of all it's
00:28:46
super impressive hubspot's been public
00:28:48
they went public at about a billion
00:28:49
dollar market cap 10 years ago and today
00:28:51
they're trading at 34 billion so
00:28:54
organic develop this business and they
00:28:56
provide marketing automation software so
00:28:58
basically things like CRM tools email
00:29:00
marketing tools so when you use
00:29:03
advertising tools and you generate leads
00:29:05
those leads come in what do you do with
00:29:06
them so let's say you're running a
00:29:08
website that sells bicycles people want
00:29:11
information on bicycles what do you do
00:29:13
with those people after they get
00:29:14
information on your website and how do
00:29:16
you track them down and how do you sell
00:29:17
them a bicycle if you're a big
00:29:19
enterprise software company and you
00:29:21
start to get companies reaching out to
00:29:23
you through your website how do you then
00:29:24
convert them so you use CRM tools
00:29:27
customer relationship management tools
00:29:29
Salesforce is a obviously a behemoth in
00:29:32
the space but HubSpot has this
00:29:34
integrated marketing Automation and CRM
00:29:37
platform for taking leads and then
00:29:40
converting those leads and selling
00:29:42
products to them so the sales team and
00:29:44
the marketing team uses HubSpot software
00:29:47
to operate and and do their work and do
00:29:49
it better when I worked at Google in
00:29:53
2005 the main thing I worked on is how
00:29:56
do we do a better job taking our
00:29:59
advertisers and giving them more tools
00:30:02
that they can then convert the leads
00:30:04
that they're getting into
00:30:06
customers and so one of the first things
00:30:09
I worked on in 2004 and then we closed
00:30:11
the deal in 2005 was acquiring urchin
00:30:13
which became Google analytics so that
00:30:15
companies could better track how folks
00:30:17
were converting on their website after
00:30:19
they spend marketing dollars on Google
00:30:21
how do you see where those people go on
00:30:23
your website and what they're actually
00:30:24
doing on the website and ultimately make
00:30:26
your website better so you can sell a
00:30:27
more product some more software and one
00:30:29
of the the things I worked on was CRM so
00:30:31
I had this conversation with the
00:30:33
executive team with Larry and Sergey and
00:30:35
others at that time and we talked about
00:30:37
should we buy a CRM company and we
00:30:39
actually had a conversation they did
00:30:41
with Mark Ben off at the time and we
00:30:43
talked about is there a way to buy
00:30:45
Salesforce and Salesforce went public
00:30:47
shortly before Google and it was
00:30:50
more richly valued than I think the
00:30:53
appetite was at the time to make this
00:30:55
leap to buying a CRM company we spent
00:30:58
quite a bit of time meeting with and I
00:30:59
personally spent time meeting with
00:31:01
netsuite which ultimately got rolled in
00:31:03
I think it was Larry Ellison was the
00:31:05
primary owner of netsuite we looked at a
00:31:07
few other CRM companies and this was
00:31:09
always meant to be the next solution
00:31:11
that you plug into the advertising
00:31:13
platform at Google you get all these
00:31:15
leads from advertising and how do you
00:31:17
convert those leads and make them
00:31:19
customers and many of the other things
00:31:21
we looked at were things like checkout
00:31:23
software and software that would let you
00:31:25
run a website to sell your products to
00:31:27
customers on the the website and so on
00:31:28
which became Shopify in a way which
00:31:30
became Shopify and and we had looked
00:31:32
very deeply at doing this at Google is
00:31:34
actually building a product called
00:31:36
Google Checkout it wasn't very
00:31:37
successful but it was to do exactly this
00:31:40
which is to build a basically a Shopify
00:31:42
type competitor and so this has always
00:31:45
been the natural fit for Google's
00:31:46
business Google made a quarter trillion
00:31:48
dollars last year in advertising revenue
00:31:51
and then they didn't make much revenue
00:31:53
after the advertising generated leads
00:31:56
because Google doesn't have a great
00:31:57
commer business and they don't have any
00:31:59
of these other Enterprise tools so this
00:32:00
is a very natural fit into Google's
00:32:03
advertising business and taking all of
00:32:06
the leads from advertising and better
00:32:07
converting them and giving your sales
00:32:09
team the tools they need to convert
00:32:11
those leads into customers so it makes
00:32:14
great strategic sense it's been a
00:32:15
concept that's been around for 20 years
00:32:16
at Google certainly they're going to
00:32:18
face regulatory scrutiny but it doesn't
00:32:20
have the same sort of overlap with the
00:32:23
ad Network businesses because they're
00:32:25
not very heavily in the ad Network
00:32:27
business HubSpot but it's a really good
00:32:29
kind of enterprise software PL plugin
00:32:31
some would say Acquisitions are one of
00:32:32
three types they are
00:32:34
defensive they are offensive or they are
00:32:37
about reinforcing the status quo if you
00:32:39
had to bucket HubSpot into one of those
00:32:41
three things is this an offensive mmaa
00:32:44
is it a defensive m&a or is this status
00:32:48
quo I think it gives advertisers more
00:32:52
tools that can integrate with AdWords
00:32:55
which is how advertisers spend ad
00:32:57
dollars is through AdWords platform and
00:32:59
so as a result it locks the advertisers
00:33:02
onto Google's ad platform keeps them
00:33:05
more engage and so I think that the
00:33:08
benefit to jamas point is that they're
00:33:10
going to both protect ad Revenue at
00:33:12
Google by locking in people on the on
00:33:15
the CRM side and the marginal impact
00:33:18
they'll get from selling CRM services
00:33:20
not that impactful to the business I
00:33:22
mean if you could spend let's say with a
00:33:24
premium $50 billion on HubSpot or five
00:33:28
billion dollar on perplexity
00:33:31
today which one would you buy I think
00:33:33
you got to buy HubSpot you're protecting
00:33:35
to your point you're protecting a
00:33:36
quarter trillion dollar ad business
00:33:38
HubSpot makes two billion in Revenue so
00:33:40
it's 1% of the size of Google's ad
00:33:43
business and it helps you lock in some
00:33:46
percentage of that 250 billion so that's
00:33:48
an important strategic acquisition I
00:33:50
think for Google so you'd rather buy
00:33:52
something in marketing automation versus
00:33:55
AI I think they should spend the money
00:33:57
in AI but I think you have to buy
00:33:58
something to it's a good question to
00:34:01
further the revenue mode yeah what does
00:34:03
Google accomplish here that they
00:34:04
couldn't do with an
00:34:06
integration a partnership you mean well
00:34:09
I mean they could just build on hubs
00:34:11
spots platform just create a connector
00:34:13
between Google ads and I think that
00:34:15
exists already exactly so what's the
00:34:18
point understand I think what freeberg
00:34:20
is saying in nicer language is they're
00:34:22
going to make it a roach motel lock in
00:34:25
you get in and you can't get out I mean
00:34:27
it gives you the full life cycle of the
00:34:28
advertiser sack so I mean you understand
00:34:30
the funnel right you get the actual
00:34:32
profile of the customer yeah the problem
00:34:35
with the roach motal m&a strategy is
00:34:36
that people sniff that out pretty
00:34:38
quickly and then they start to carve out
00:34:40
these very discreet parts of the product
00:34:42
that they want you to divest in order to
00:34:44
get the whole thing done that's the
00:34:46
thing that
00:34:47
surprisingly I think The Regulators have
00:34:49
gotten smart about and I suspect it's
00:34:51
not that The Regulators themselves know
00:34:53
these discret ideas but that the answers
00:34:55
are fed to them by competitors who want
00:34:57
to slow these processes down and make
00:35:00
these things convoluted and complicated
00:35:02
oh they snitch they send the snitch in I
00:35:05
I think it's very smart for a competitor
00:35:07
to actually call a regulator and give
00:35:09
them a road map of how to make the deal
00:35:12
happen but in a very convoluted
00:35:14
complicated way you remember I suspect
00:35:17
that's what happened in Microsoft
00:35:18
Activision Microsoft brilliantly fought
00:35:20
it off right and so they were able to
00:35:22
get the whole thing done completely on
00:35:23
their terms but in many other cases you
00:35:26
get these discret things where it's like
00:35:27
okay invest this sell that keep this and
00:35:29
it's like why why are we doing
00:35:31
this but I just think the roach motel
00:35:34
strategy is harder to get done these
00:35:36
days because folks will know how to make
00:35:38
it super convoluted I will tell you what
00:35:41
what when when a big company like this
00:35:42
makes a big acquisition offer like this
00:35:45
as much as I know Google's business I
00:35:47
think it's a generalization that can be
00:35:49
drawn
00:35:51
here it's usually a negative signal
00:35:53
about organic growth meaning if I'm a
00:35:56
Google shareholder
00:35:58
I should look at this and I should say
00:36:00
why do you need to make this acquisition
00:36:02
why is there an indication in this bid
00:36:06
that there is some advertising Revenue
00:36:07
leakage going on and then I should go
00:36:10
spend time trying to understand that I
00:36:13
think there's a really important
00:36:14
question there yeah but this is why I'm
00:36:15
asking you like obviously they're not
00:36:17
going to do this because things are
00:36:18
going perfectly in that space and so if
00:36:20
you're losing share you're not going to
00:36:22
be losing it to Bing you're losing it to
00:36:24
some form of AI which is why again it's
00:36:26
a bit of a heads scratcher spend a lot
00:36:28
less money and just buy everything in
00:36:29
the space or spend 50 billion and buy
00:36:31
everything possible in the space to give
00:36:33
you just a little context here this is
00:36:36
going to be by far their largest
00:36:37
acquisition if it's true if it gets
00:36:38
closed this is all speculation right now
00:36:41
looking back Motorola Mobility uh was
00:36:43
bought for 12.5 billion there were
00:36:45
patents there was the hardware business
00:36:46
which they spun out you can go look up
00:36:47
the deal details there but there's a
00:36:50
long taale of uh companies they've
00:36:52
bought Nest Labs Fitbit and YouTube uh 3
00:36:56
billion 2 billion 1. 6 billion if you
00:36:58
remember uh they bought a mandiant I've
00:37:00
never even heard of the cyber security
00:37:02
company 5.4 billion they bought nest for
00:37:04
3 billion double click 3 billion that
00:37:05
was a long time ago so he probably
00:37:06
triple that value in today's dollars by
00:37:08
the way remember Fitbit Fitbit took uh
00:37:11
18 or 24 months to close took a while
00:37:14
yeah deep deeply scrutinized if you
00:37:16
think a wearable on your wrist is going
00:37:18
to get scrutinized when bought by Google
00:37:20
imagine what happens when a 50 billion
00:37:21
dollar marketing automation company gets
00:37:23
bought by Google yeah it's really
00:37:25
interesting look I I don't think this
00:37:27
acquisition makes any sense I'm kind of
00:37:29
in Chamas camp this is this would be a
00:37:31
very odd acquisition I'm not even sure
00:37:32
the story is true there's been no
00:37:34
confirmation of an actual bid made this
00:37:36
was basically an anonymous source saying
00:37:38
that Google had hired investment bankers
00:37:40
to you know maybe kick the tires well
00:37:43
typically these Bankers float these
00:37:44
trial balloons like this because they
00:37:46
want to pump the deal but yeah imagine
00:37:49
what the fees would be on $50 billion
00:37:52
acquisition sh some other buyers loose
00:37:54
yeah when they have these auctions well
00:37:57
look it's going to be very hard for any
00:37:59
big tech company to do a $50 billion
00:38:00
acquisition of anything just that given
00:38:02
that leanon and the FTC are opposed to
00:38:04
bigness in and of itself but I think
00:38:07
from a strategic point of view I agree
00:38:09
this this deal would be odd I don't
00:38:11
really see the connection to the Google
00:38:12
ads
00:38:13
business HubSpot is used by companies to
00:38:16
manage their pipelines it's a
00:38:18
competitive Salesforce I see it all the
00:38:20
time I see startups using it all the
00:38:22
time as the alternative to Salesforce
00:38:25
because it's sort of easier to use more
00:38:27
user friendly and the main thing it does
00:38:29
is you have your pipeline in there you
00:38:31
bring in the leads at the top of the
00:38:33
funnel and then you work them down to
00:38:35
close deals where do those leads come
00:38:37
from sex I understand that they can come
00:38:39
from Google AdWords but most of them
00:38:41
come from from ads spend that's the
00:38:44
connection and it's always been this
00:38:45
idea that those two should be integrated
00:38:48
okay but but the the point is that if
00:38:51
you think about your top of funnel if
00:38:52
you're one of the customers of HubSpot
00:38:55
using this Google AdWords is just one of
00:38:58
a number of channels that's right so you
00:39:00
could be getting your leads through
00:39:02
inbound you could be getting your leads
00:39:04
through events you could be getting your
00:39:07
leads through I mean there's so many
00:39:09
different sources so so doesn't it
00:39:11
doesn't make sense to me that
00:39:14
somehow Google would need to acquire a
00:39:17
company to manage not their advertisers
00:39:20
but the people their advertisers are
00:39:22
trying to reach as one of a dozen
00:39:24
different potential marketing channels
00:39:26
it just doesn't really make sense I mean
00:39:28
the the Acquisitions where Google's been
00:39:29
really successful have been broad
00:39:32
horizontal platform plays like Android
00:39:35
this is as vertical as it gets this is
00:39:37
CRM software this is basically Google
00:39:39
getting into a vertical app for sales
00:39:43
and marketing teams yeah I if you think
00:39:46
if you think about the business that
00:39:47
this is most like it would be G suite
00:39:51
and because it's an Enterprise play and
00:39:54
that's the most neglected part of
00:39:55
Google's business I think you're both a
00:39:57
key piece to this I think this is about
00:39:59
the data you look at these These are the
00:40:01
leads and the great contacts in the
00:40:04
database of the customer which Google
00:40:05
doesn't have access to and they can
00:40:07
close the loop and they can make
00:40:08
targeting of ads and get people deeper
00:40:11
and they can fight for a larger
00:40:13
percentage so to your points act yes
00:40:15
you've got 20 different inbound feeds
00:40:18
coming in for leads if Google knows the
00:40:20
leads that are already in there they can
00:40:22
then retarget them across their entire
00:40:24
ad Network which is the largest in the
00:40:25
world that's the value if I know your
00:40:28
10,000 best customers and then I know
00:40:30
when they're on Google searching and I
00:40:32
know that when they're in a Chrome
00:40:33
browser I know when they're on an
00:40:34
Android phone if they happen to use that
00:40:36
man I can just start getting more of
00:40:38
your ad dollars into it that's what's
00:40:39
actually happening here it's they don't
00:40:41
want a SAS business they want the data
00:40:43
they want to retarget folks and then
00:40:45
they want to make close more sales and
00:40:47
be more efficient than Tik Tok and
00:40:49
Facebook and meta it's about you think
00:40:51
they'd be allowed to use their customers
00:40:53
data to somehow Target their ad product
00:40:56
absolutely 100% if you if I'm opting
00:40:58
into it and I say hey you have 10,000
00:41:00
people in your database you want to go
00:41:01
find them we have you have 8,000 of them
00:41:03
connected that came in through Google
00:41:04
search what about the other 12,000 you
00:41:06
want to try to find them in the Google
00:41:07
ad Network we can put that together for
00:41:09
you that's actually if somebody's going
00:41:11
to snitch on this deal it's about the
00:41:12
data I'll tell you back in just
00:41:15
improving conversion rates drives more
00:41:18
ad
00:41:19
revenue and the key measurement we had
00:41:22
the year after we bought urchin and
00:41:24
launched Google analytics was we looked
00:41:26
at how much an advertisers spent on
00:41:28
Google's AdWords Network before and
00:41:31
after they installed Google analytics
00:41:33
and that year it was a ton of money at
00:41:35
the time we saw an incremental roughly
00:41:38
$500 million in Revenue in ad spend with
00:41:42
folks who installed Google analytics
00:41:45
from before versus after because they
00:41:47
then started to change their websites
00:41:48
and tweak their sales flow or their
00:41:50
marketing flow on their website to
00:41:52
better convert customers so they could
00:41:54
spend more on the network because higher
00:41:56
conversion rates means you can spend a
00:41:57
higher CPM on Advertising so the the
00:42:01
deeper you go from an integration
00:42:03
perspective in closing sales the better
00:42:05
you actually can get and the more money
00:42:07
you can spend on marketing on the front
00:42:08
end and so that benefits the growth in
00:42:10
the network and to build on your point
00:42:12
freeberg this is why Amazon and Uber and
00:42:15
instacart have become such mayor major
00:42:18
players in advertising they have the
00:42:20
data on sales
00:42:21
information and drop off and they sell
00:42:24
conversions at the point sacks of the
00:42:27
shopping cart about to be clicked on and
00:42:30
Amazon's been taking some of that and
00:42:32
and instacart been intercepting some of
00:42:34
those ads yeah I'll speculate on this
00:42:35
for a second I think that if I'm sitting
00:42:37
inside of Google I see the capability of
00:42:40
our AI tools our generative AI Tools in
00:42:43
being able to improve marketing and
00:42:45
sales um processes and I'm saying how do
00:42:48
we leverage that well guess what we
00:42:50
don't actually have access to our
00:42:51
advertisers sales and marketing
00:42:53
automation workflow because we don't
00:42:55
have a CRM tool so then the natural
00:42:58
strategic thing is how do we get a CRM
00:43:00
tool okay well we can't buy Salesforce
00:43:03
well we could buy HubSpot that makes
00:43:04
sense number two so then we could we
00:43:06
could apply our generative AI
00:43:08
capabilities to improve conversion
00:43:10
efficiency at HubSpot and probably grow
00:43:11
Revenue there as well so it could be a
00:43:13
fairly quickly creative deal and there's
00:43:15
the benefit to the ad Network I think
00:43:17
the roach motel idea is probably the
00:43:19
best strategy here yeah you're right I
00:43:21
just think I would if I were them with
00:43:22
$50 billion there're like 30 billion by
00:43:26
the way 35
00:43:27
premium they got to pay 50% more 25%
00:43:29
more it's already floated up so you got
00:43:31
to imagine it's probably a $40 billion
00:43:32
deal yeah okay 40 okay so they saved 10
00:43:36
billion I think the synergies here are
00:43:38
negligible if it took Google almost two
00:43:40
years to get a an accelerometer on a RIS
00:43:43
approv from antitrust this is going to
00:43:45
take three years saxs yeah so why bother
00:43:47
so like do something much more
00:43:49
disruptive I have an answer to that but
00:43:50
I want to hear Sax's first good well I
00:43:52
just looked up how many customers
00:43:53
HubSpot has HubSpot has 205,000 C
00:43:57
customers as of the end of 2023 now you
00:43:59
look up Google AdWords it has 1.2
00:44:02
million businesses okay and I'm sure
00:44:04
that's not 100% overlapping every one of
00:44:07
them should be using hutspot that's
00:44:08
hugely creative I agree yeah I don't
00:44:11
think that Google has the leverage to
00:44:14
drive all of its adword customers into
00:44:16
using a do need all of them if if it
00:44:18
gets 5% of them it makes this deal make
00:44:20
sense interesting that part is kind of
00:44:22
interesting if they can actually drive
00:44:25
their ad customers what they did with
00:44:26
with double click double click was
00:44:28
actually advertising no but they had
00:44:29
other other places that they could take
00:44:31
their AdWords advertisers to spend that
00:44:33
the double click Network had access to
00:44:35
anyway I I hear you yeah and there was
00:44:36
another set of advertising AO management
00:44:39
tools that double click had that that's
00:44:40
an Enterprise software tool that they
00:44:42
were able to sell into their advertisers
00:44:43
that they didn't have themselves CH let
00:44:45
me ask you a Market's question here
00:44:47
if we wind up with a republican
00:44:50
conservative
00:44:52
GOP presidency and administration for
00:44:54
the next four years which seems like a a
00:44:57
possibility here strong possibility what
00:44:59
does that do for m&a markets do you
00:45:01
think they might be opening up here and
00:45:02
the reason Google's even considering
00:45:05
this is because they anticipate this
00:45:07
deal might fall into a new
00:45:09
Administration that is going to fire
00:45:11
Lina con possibly
00:45:13
probably I actually think that I think
00:45:15
the Democrats and the Republicans are
00:45:17
really well aligned here they don't like
00:45:18
deals and I don't think you're going to
00:45:21
see a big sea change they hate big tech
00:45:24
for different reasons but they equally
00:45:26
want to them down if you look at the
00:45:29
non-big tech m&a
00:45:31
deals they're going to get slowed down
00:45:33
for different reasons so for example
00:45:34
like the big us steel merger with nipon
00:45:37
steel that was announced Biden has one
00:45:39
set of issues but I suspect you know if
00:45:41
Donald Trump were to get elected his
00:45:42
issues will be more about further
00:45:44
hollowing out Middle America and so that
00:45:48
deal will probably get
00:45:50
stopped for different reasons but so I
00:45:52
think that they're both
00:45:54
actually roughly aligned and not all a
00:45:57
lot of this big m&a to happen but for
00:45:59
different reasons for different reasons
00:46:01
but the outcome is the same so this is
00:46:03
why I I would just kind of think like if
00:46:04
you're going to do a deal you got to do
00:46:07
something that's like small enough where
00:46:10
it'll pass muster you know it to be
00:46:12
really valuable and The Regulators will
00:46:15
be like ah whatever just let it happen
00:46:17
SX what do you think do you think a
00:46:19
trump Administration would become more
00:46:20
frisky allow more m&a they seem to be
00:46:22
actually cozing up to Tech in a major
00:46:24
way well I agree with Jamal that there's
00:46:27
a lot of anger on the Republican side
00:46:28
towards Big Tech because of censorship
00:46:30
and bias and Google is as guilty of that
00:46:32
as any of these big tech companies so I
00:46:35
don't
00:46:36
expect Republican Administration to have
00:46:38
Google on its good graces that being
00:46:40
said I do think Republicans have a more
00:46:43
traditional definition of antitrust than
00:46:45
Lena Khan does and I think that a
00:46:49
republican anti-rust enforcer would
00:46:52
probably be guided by market share
00:46:55
considerations first and for foremost
00:46:58
and so in this case since Google does
00:47:00
not have a CRM play then based on a
00:47:03
traditional definition of antitrust they
00:47:05
would be able to make this acquisition
00:47:07
whereas I think again Lena Khan is just
00:47:09
opposed to bigness and doesn't want big
00:47:10
tech companies getting any bigger so
00:47:12
there's no guarantee that Republicans
00:47:14
would allow it I would say that if you
00:47:16
got the right FDC commissioner or right
00:47:20
doj I'd say there's a possibility of it
00:47:23
being more likely to go through to
00:47:24
remind everybody lenina Khan's
00:47:27
interpretation of antitrust is future
00:47:30
competition trying to protect future
00:47:32
competition the traditional one is
00:47:33
consumer based hey are consumers
00:47:35
benefiting or not and so that's actually
00:47:39
that's one of the top three guests I
00:47:40
want market share is really the
00:47:42
traditional test yeah market share and
00:47:44
then the impact that has on consumer
00:47:46
choice and price yeah can I just go back
00:47:47
on to the Synergy point I just want to
00:47:49
like yes please I just want to
00:47:51
brainstorm about this for a second let's
00:47:52
say you're one of Google's 1.2 million
00:47:55
businesses that are using AdWords
00:47:57
there's a high chance you're also using
00:47:58
Facebook there's a high chance you're
00:48:00
also doing other kinds of advertising
00:48:03
you might be doing physical world
00:48:04
advertising you might be doing events
00:48:07
there might be a dozen different
00:48:08
channels through which you get leads now
00:48:10
all of a sudden Google sends you an
00:48:12
email saying hey we acquired HubSpot you
00:48:15
know why don't you click here to use us
00:48:17
for CRM is that really going to drive a
00:48:21
change in behavior from that small
00:48:23
business beyond what they would already
00:48:25
do today it doesn't seem that syner just
00:48:26
stick to me some percent of them not all
00:48:29
maybe 5% again like 5% is 50,000 that's
00:48:32
Anem
00:48:34
campaign I mean I just don't see the
00:48:36
leverage basically yeah I don't know if
00:48:38
I agree but I mean that's why we're
00:48:41
here if Google did a deep product
00:48:44
integration where the leads that you
00:48:46
acquired
00:48:47
through Google AdWords magically
00:48:49
appeared in HubSpot and that's where you
00:48:51
went to go work them then yes maybe
00:48:56
maybe there' be Synergy just looking at
00:48:58
this on the numbers since we like to do
00:48:59
back of the envelope here $250 billion
00:49:01
add Revenue 1.2 million in advertisers
00:49:03
it's almost exactly like $2,000 per
00:49:05
Advertiser obviously there's some big
00:49:07
ones obviously there a long tail man if
00:49:09
you can get some number of those to
00:49:11
spend 10 20 30% more it could be quite a
00:49:13
creative to the bottom line it would pay
00:49:15
for the acquisition over a short period
00:49:17
of time and we'll see it's interesting
00:49:19
discussion for sure all right if you
00:49:21
missed it John Stewart did a segment on
00:49:23
AI on The Daily Show he came back he's
00:49:25
doing I think Mondays every every week
00:49:27
and it went viral and it was about how
00:49:31
AI is going to change our jobs faster
00:49:33
than any previous labor Revolution so it
00:49:35
seems like the public is starting to get
00:49:38
an idea uh about AI wiping out large
00:49:41
swats of jobs and it's starting to hit
00:49:43
the mainstream CEOs like Brian chesky
00:49:46
from Airbnb and Aaron Levy from box I
00:49:49
had them on this weekend startups Le in
00:49:50
the last year they said they anticipate
00:49:52
30 to 50% productivity gains for a lot
00:49:55
of the jobs in their companies developer
00:49:56
customer support all that stuff and we
00:49:58
covered claer AI customer support agent
00:50:00
doing the job of 700 full-time employees
00:50:03
and driving a $40 million increase in
00:50:04
profits this year yada yada y we've
00:50:06
we've talked about this over and over
00:50:08
again but it seems to be tipping over
00:50:10
into public Consciousness we chth have
00:50:13
talked about whether humans will find
00:50:15
more work to do or if this is going to
00:50:17
truly displace people I think we all
00:50:19
kind of feel like at least to the best
00:50:21
of my memory we all feel like new jobs
00:50:23
will be created but it is entering the
00:50:25
Public's Consciousness what imp is that
00:50:27
going to have if the public starts
00:50:29
thinking AI is going to take their job
00:50:31
chath I mean I think that social media
00:50:33
will make this perception more
00:50:35
widespread than it's been at other
00:50:38
moments of Revolution and Innovation but
00:50:41
we've gone through this before I'd like
00:50:42
to summarize my thoughts in three charts
00:50:45
okay and I call
00:50:47
this this time it's not different so
00:50:51
chart number one for those watching on
00:50:52
YouTube is a look at the components of
00:50:55
US GDP this is from the Bureau of
00:50:57
economic
00:50:58
analysis now this goes from 1929 up to
00:51:02
2011 so it doesn't go all the way back
00:51:03
to the 1800s and we're missing the last
00:51:05
decade but the point is the following if
00:51:08
you can see the chart if you can't see
00:51:10
it I'll describe it to you which is that
00:51:12
GDP the components of GDP are
00:51:15
surprisingly resilient and roughly the
00:51:17
same over long stretches of time which
00:51:19
is that even though GDP goes up consumer
00:51:22
consumption is always around 70% net
00:51:25
exports are
00:51:27
a few per plus or minus gross domestic
00:51:30
investment is around the 20% level and
00:51:33
then government consumption is around
00:51:35
the 20% level and that's what adds up to
00:51:38
GDP so that's an important thing to note
00:51:42
why because in the absence of something
00:51:44
very acute like World War II these
00:51:46
things don't change over long periods of
00:51:48
time okay so if that is true what
00:51:50
happens when you have any kind of a
00:51:54
revolution so let's look at the
00:51:55
Industrial Revolution right so they
00:51:56
shift from farms to factories and what
00:51:59
you saw was exactly what people should
00:52:02
be worried about with respect to AI
00:52:03
which is in specific job classes things
00:52:07
just fall to zero so unemployment
00:52:09
basically went to zero and the income
00:52:11
associated with those jobs also went to
00:52:13
zero so this is what people are worried
00:52:15
about but if you remember the last chart
00:52:18
the point is somehow we found a way to
00:52:22
find growth and this is what's
00:52:25
demonstrated on this final chart which
00:52:26
is when you look at us productivity and
00:52:28
worker compensation this is going from
00:52:30
World War II to today you find that
00:52:33
every time we find a new way of
00:52:36
innovating compensation tends to track
00:52:38
it so if you take these three things
00:52:41
together number one which is the
00:52:42
components of GDP rarely change number
00:52:45
two is that yes there are certain
00:52:47
categories of jobs that always get
00:52:49
disrupted away but the third is the most
00:52:51
important which is that as productivity
00:52:54
goes up which is what AI should give us
00:52:57
just as we've seen in the past
00:52:58
compensation also goes up which means
00:53:00
new job classes will be created so I
00:53:03
think the macro picture if you look back
00:53:05
hundreds of years is that this is like
00:53:07
many other moments in time it feels more
00:53:10
personal right now because we're all
00:53:11
living it right none few of us lived The
00:53:13
Agrarian to Industrial Revolution yeah
00:53:16
we missed it and few of us lived the
00:53:18
technological Revolution right we kind
00:53:20
of came in at the heels of it but I
00:53:22
suspect that this time is not different
00:53:24
freeberg your thoughts on this I think
00:53:26
you've said something similar on past
00:53:29
episodes but it is kind of tipping and
00:53:32
into public Consciousness and it's also
00:53:35
affecting White Collar jobs this time
00:53:37
not just people in fields picking
00:53:39
berries and so those people may be a
00:53:41
little more vocal and we've seen massive
00:53:43
layoffs in Tech massive layoffs in media
00:53:46
and those jobs don't seem to be coming
00:53:48
back people seem to be get taking the
00:53:50
gains and just having people on the team
00:53:52
be 30% more efficient as Brian told me
00:53:55
on my other pod
00:53:57
so what do you think freeberg is this
00:53:59
time different or is it the same so
00:54:02
here's this article from June 2 1983 in
00:54:07
the New York Times all about how
00:54:09
computers are eliminating jobs in
00:54:12
industries that were effectively offline
00:54:15
knowledge work Industries at the time
00:54:17
creating engineering designs creating
00:54:19
architectural drawings I think this
00:54:21
article spoke to the fact that these
00:54:22
jobs were going to be eliminated and as
00:54:25
we all know those jobs actually got
00:54:27
enhanced by computers productivity went
00:54:30
up and new sub Industries emerged and in
00:54:32
fact the overall Industries actually
00:54:34
grew in some cases when we were fearful
00:54:36
of them being replaced due to the
00:54:38
automation enabled by software so I
00:54:41
think that in this particular sense we
00:54:44
can talk about the Industrial Revolution
00:54:46
enabling through Manufacturing Systems
00:54:48
and centralized
00:54:50
production a a replacement of manual
00:54:53
labor with machines what we're talking
00:54:56
about now is a replacement of knowledge
00:54:58
work that has been aided by computers
00:55:00
with machines so the machines no longer
00:55:02
even need the human but the reality is
00:55:04
that these systems are actually going to
00:55:06
give humans 10 to 100x leverage so when
00:55:10
you think about that one person could
00:55:12
spend three weeks making an
00:55:13
architectural drawing today what if that
00:55:15
one person could make an architectural
00:55:17
drawing every six hours so the question
00:55:20
then is do we stop making architectural
00:55:22
drawings and we fire a bunch of
00:55:24
Architects or does the cost of making an
00:55:27
architectural drawing drop by 90% And it
00:55:29
enables us to do more detailed higher
00:55:32
resolution architectural drawings across
00:55:34
more places more frequently and the
00:55:37
industry actually booms and what we've
00:55:39
seen historically is that when
00:55:41
productivity goes up costs go down the
00:55:44
actual volume balloons and the economy
00:55:46
grows so it's a it's an example where I
00:55:49
think in this particular case we will
00:55:51
see these tools creating more leverage
00:55:53
for knowledge work instead of just
00:55:55
simply replacing knowledge work and that
00:55:57
humans will start to shift to a higher
00:55:59
order of work and we'll see the economy
00:56:01
grow and productivity go up as a
00:56:04
result so so I think that's my kind of
00:56:07
key read on on on the story but it's
00:56:09
very hard to connect the dots for people
00:56:11
without having all of these historical
00:56:13
cases and I think one of the ways to
00:56:15
think about doing this usefully is you
00:56:16
go back to the software Revolution and
00:56:18
all the stuff that we were doing with
00:56:20
pencils and papers before computers we
00:56:23
actually didn't lose all those jobs the
00:56:25
people could Now do 100 times or a
00:56:27
thousand or million times as much work
00:56:29
and new Industries emerged and
00:56:30
productivity went up and the economy
00:56:32
grew and so we just have to have
00:56:34
this this realization as this starts to
00:56:37
take hold that the industries will
00:56:40
change and that the systems will
00:56:42
actually provide leverage not
00:56:44
replacement yeah it's such a good point
00:56:47
and I think how what you teach your kids
00:56:49
is like really important at this moment
00:56:50
in time like having a job that is
00:56:53
replaced by AI where that could be
00:56:55
greatly replaced by AI might be a
00:56:57
mistake and if you think about being a
00:56:59
conductor freedberg or a
00:57:01
maestro a conductor of an orchestra I
00:57:03
think that's the job of the future is
00:57:05
can you work with these agents forget
00:57:07
about co-pilots because that's phase one
00:57:09
of all this but agents are phase two
00:57:11
where you have an agent who's writing
00:57:13
copy who's should the HubSpot example
00:57:16
you get before you know a designer who's
00:57:18
in the cloud who's an agent an AI agent
00:57:20
making you artwork and then you Stitch
00:57:22
all these things together I've been
00:57:23
loading chat jpt with my kids constantly
00:57:27
asking History questions and whatever
00:57:28
questions they want I've been teaching
00:57:30
them how to use chat GPT that's great
00:57:32
yeah I mean I think it's like a like
00:57:33
there's this whole transition of humans
00:57:35
doing manual labor to doing knowledge
00:57:38
work where you're using software to
00:57:40
create digital output to now having more
00:57:43
folks spend more of their time being
00:57:45
conceptualists or creators where you can
00:57:47
kind of be an architect or a creator of
00:57:50
something and the system just generates
00:57:52
it you know you you state your intended
00:57:54
objective and the system solves for it
00:57:56
yes as opposed to hey I got to go build
00:57:58
the Excel spreadsheet and check the
00:58:00
formula in every cell and do all the
00:58:02
manual what if I just say hey here's
00:58:03
what I want the model to do please
00:58:04
generate it for me and you get the
00:58:06
result it enables you to do a 100 times
00:58:09
more work that's why I use the analogy
00:58:10
conductor or yeah orchestra leader sax
00:58:13
what do you think this is uh you're
00:58:15
you're you're on the populace side you
00:58:16
really have your finger on what
00:58:19
Americans think and it's a compliment
00:58:23
it's a literal
00:58:24
compliment but I do think you're I think
00:58:26
you've become a PO especially as the
00:58:28
longer I've known you we've known each
00:58:29
other for over 20 years you've become
00:58:30
more populist so what what's the word on
00:58:32
the street here amongst you know gen pop
00:58:36
and how do you think they're taking this
00:58:37
news when they see somebody like John
00:58:38
Stewart they respect when you see
00:58:40
somebody like Jonathan John Stewart you
00:58:42
know doing this that's like going to hit
00:58:44
a large swath of these you know you know
00:58:47
Elites that we've talked about before on
00:58:49
the show who are losing their jobs or
00:58:51
maybe their salaries are getting capped
00:58:53
well first of all Jason to quote Senator
00:58:55
Gras from Gladiator I may not be a man
00:58:58
of the people but I do try to be a man
00:59:00
for the people yes exactly so uh oh my
00:59:04
god did you see the AI did you see the
00:59:06
AI from some y competitor company where
00:59:08
they like made a little video of us and
00:59:11
like we're talking about somebody's nuts
00:59:13
and then they were like you said oh I'm
00:59:15
going to ask my butler to ask my
00:59:17
assistant to ask my house manager to
00:59:19
then ask My Chauffeur to pick those up
00:59:22
it's like it was a pretty great clip
00:59:24
yeah it look funny look to be frank no
00:59:27
one cares what John Stewart thinks he's
00:59:30
never been less relevant and less funny
00:59:33
um this is a story that the media has
00:59:35
been hyping up for months now CO's over
00:59:39
so they need something else to scare us
00:59:40
with and what they really should be
00:59:42
talking is that we've got two Wars that
00:59:44
risk spiraling out of
00:59:46
control they don't want to go there they
00:59:48
don't want to go there or or the
00:59:50
national debt exactly right they don't
00:59:51
want to go there either because neither
00:59:53
of those issues reflect well on the
00:59:56
current Administration and power so
00:59:58
they're going to scare us with this now
00:59:59
look in the short to medium term AI
01:00:01
leads to productivity gains in the long
01:00:04
term it may lead to job losses but as
01:00:06
you guys pointed out hopefully by then
01:00:08
we'll have lots of other jobs created by
01:00:10
the productivity boom that we're going
01:00:12
to get and this has been the case
01:00:14
throughout history with regard to
01:00:15
technology improvements and if we don't
01:00:17
have these productivity improvements
01:00:19
what's going to drive the growth in GDP
01:00:21
what's going to allow us to pay off this
01:00:22
enormous national debt that seems to be
01:00:25
yep you know so large that we it's unrep
01:00:28
we need the productivity gains that AI
01:00:30
is going to unlock without them we're
01:00:32
definitely toast so look I I don't place
01:00:34
a lot of stock in this John Stewart's
01:00:37
story it's just one of many that the
01:00:39
media is is creating to try and scare us
01:00:41
about AI that's actually a great guest
01:00:43
John Stewart would be a great guest
01:00:44
along with Lena Khan put those on the
01:00:46
list have you seen this um clip where
01:00:47
Yan Leon basically says our best llm is
01:00:51
50 times smaller than what a
01:00:53
four-year-old has processed since
01:00:55
they've been old is awake has been awake
01:00:58
a total of 16,000 hours and you say Okay
01:01:01
16,000 hours multiply this by 3600
01:01:05
seconds per hour and then figure out
01:01:07
like what's the um bandwidth of the
01:01:10
optical nerve going to the cortex it's
01:01:12
about 20 megabytes right you have 1
01:01:14
million nerve fibers per uh per per eye
01:01:17
and it's about 10 bytes per second right
01:01:19
give or take um so multiply that's 10
01:01:23
the 15 bytes by the time you four 15
01:01:26
times more than whatever llm like the
01:01:28
biggest LM in the world have been
01:01:29
trained on okay so what that tells you
01:01:33
is that in the space of a few months a
01:01:35
baby has seen more information than the
01:01:37
biggest LMS that we have the point is
01:01:39
that and this is one of the foremost
01:01:41
experts in Ai and really one of the
01:01:43
fathers of modern AI what he's basically
01:01:45
saying is it's still more artificial
01:01:48
than
01:01:48
intelligent and everybody needs to take
01:01:52
a deep breath and understand that
01:01:53
there's just going to be a lot more work
01:01:54
before you get to this omnipresent agent
01:01:57
that just replaces and destroys
01:01:59
everything and thinks on its own yeah
01:02:01
I'm willing to bet on all of us versus a
01:02:03
bunch of four-year-olds and I just want
01:02:04
to say Kumbaya to Davos as well a clip
01:02:07
from Davos thanks for letting us use
01:02:09
that yeah it's interesting sacks like
01:02:13
um the number of jobs that will be
01:02:16
replaced or augmented and then the
01:02:18
creation of jobs and then you start
01:02:20
thinking about well how many jobs exist
01:02:22
in the real world I saw weo is doing
01:02:24
Uber Eats deliveries and you're just
01:02:25
think wow more people are going to be
01:02:27
able to afford ubber which is kind of
01:02:29
expensive to to use so consumption is
01:02:31
going to go up and then you think about
01:02:32
the Optimus and then what's the other
01:02:34
robot company that's making a general
01:02:36
human robot figure and man those are
01:02:40
starting to get really interesting and
01:02:42
and I think that's going to be the
01:02:43
unlock so maybe you could speak a little
01:02:45
bit to sax what do you think happens
01:02:47
when we start getting humanoid robots in
01:02:49
the mix and do you have any investments
01:02:51
in that space I don't because I don't I
01:02:53
don't do that kind of Hardware R&D I
01:02:56
mean look I think you're right that AI
01:02:57
does lead to robotics because one of the
01:03:01
hard things about robotics is just
01:03:03
having the the robot not just move but
01:03:07
understand what's happening in the world
01:03:09
around it and then make the right
01:03:11
decisions about how to react to that and
01:03:14
so llms do start creating a path for the
01:03:19
robots to be able to make Intelligent
01:03:21
Decisions without having to be
01:03:24
programmed with a bunch of if statements
01:03:26
right and I mean self-driving kind of
01:03:28
does this too I mean self-driving is
01:03:30
sort of the
01:03:31
early it's kind of like the early
01:03:33
prototype for these kinds of robots and
01:03:36
that that's why it's not a surprised
01:03:38
that Tesla is developing Optimus is
01:03:40
because you think about what
01:03:41
self-driving is it's it's a device a car
01:03:44
with a whole bunch of cameras on it it
01:03:46
takes in all that visual information and
01:03:49
then it makes decisions about how to
01:03:51
move and how to react and then it's it's
01:03:54
trained based on
01:03:56
mirroring human decisions all those
01:03:58
human decisions that Tesla's been able
01:04:00
to gather through the combination of
01:04:01
self-driving with humans intervening
01:04:03
allows it to
01:04:05
train the the self-driving I guess brain
01:04:08
you could say well and it's also Sachs
01:04:10
moving at two or three miles per hour so
01:04:12
it can take its time and if you haven't
01:04:14
seen this figure this combines the
01:04:16
language model with what you're
01:04:17
discussing Sachs so the language models
01:04:20
when you show them a picture and you say
01:04:22
hey and this is from figure and there's
01:04:24
a this is a their robot and it says hey
01:04:27
give me something to eat have you guys
01:04:28
seen this before I've heard some of the
01:04:29
the founders of these robotics companies
01:04:31
talk about why they create robots in a
01:04:33
humanoid shape and it's not just because
01:04:37
they're trying to create a replacement
01:04:38
for humans or something like that it's
01:04:40
also because now they can point cameras
01:04:42
at the way that humans move yes and so
01:04:45
they can actually train these robots on
01:04:47
how humans move and react to things so
01:04:49
you're able to kind of create a large
01:04:52
data set kind of like with self-driving
01:04:54
so that the robots are able to learn how
01:04:56
to how to move and I I've seen a
01:04:58
different video where uh Optimus the
01:05:00
Tesla robot is folding shirts you seen
01:05:03
that pretty impressive yeah what's
01:05:05
what's really interesting about this
01:05:06
freeberg is when I spoke to the the
01:05:09
people who are making these Evolution
01:05:12
has made
01:05:13
humans to operate in the world most
01:05:17
efficiently over whatever number of
01:05:19
years and creatures before us so in fact
01:05:23
the world is optimized for the human
01:05:26
body type and so maybe you could talk a
01:05:30
little bit about what you think is going
01:05:31
to happen with these robots freedberg in
01:05:33
the in the short and medium term when
01:05:35
will we have one of these robots in our
01:05:37
houses what will the price point be in 5
01:05:39
to 10 years and what will they be doing
01:05:41
in five to 10 years I don't know we
01:05:43
should explore we should explore that
01:05:45
question at the all-in summit 2024 okay
01:05:48
shout out to Elon Elon can you bring
01:05:50
Optimus to the event please Jason I
01:05:53
don't think it's a 5year time frame I
01:05:54
think it's longer than that that's just
01:05:56
my guess and one of the reasons is if
01:05:58
you look at the use of robots in call it
01:06:02
industrial production today they don't
01:06:04
want humans getting too close to them
01:06:06
they're actually kind of dangerous
01:06:07
because you have these arms flying
01:06:09
around they move quickly they're very
01:06:11
heavy you get banged on the head by one
01:06:13
of them it's going to take you out so a
01:06:15
good point the idea of having a robot in
01:06:17
your house that's capable of freely
01:06:18
moving you have to make that so safe to
01:06:22
a point that they just haven't gotten to
01:06:23
yet with robots so there's just going to
01:06:25
be a lot of fine-tuning work that
01:06:27
happens before this is a domestic
01:06:29
product I think in the near term it's
01:06:31
all about industrial applications or
01:06:34
maybe even military applications well
01:06:36
it's and if you've ever been to the the
01:06:39
gigafactories I I was doing a little
01:06:42
tour of one of them once and somebody
01:06:43
grabbed me because I almost wandered
01:06:45
into one of those areas and they have
01:06:47
tape on the floor then they have a wall
01:06:49
Etc but if you even get within a
01:06:52
certain closeness with this tape on the
01:06:54
floor it shuts the whole thing down
01:06:56
because they're afraid somebody's going
01:06:57
to get crushed behind One of These Arms
01:06:59
chth I'll give it to you when will we
01:07:02
have one of these robots in our homes
01:07:05
for the price of a Prius now oh by the
01:07:07
way Prius is a car that cost about
01:07:09
$50,000 that common folk drive so
01:07:13
$50,000 robot in our
01:07:15
houses I think it'll be less than that I
01:07:17
think it's going to be in the next two
01:07:19
or three years you'll have a domestic
01:07:21
help robot that you can probably pay a
01:07:23
thousand bucks a month for okay which
01:07:26
would be like a $100,000 car payment
01:07:28
that would be the equivalent of a car
01:07:29
payment on a $100,000 car so okay you
01:07:32
say under five you say three what do you
01:07:34
think free BR same bet $1,000 a month
01:07:37
robot $100,000 sticker price when will
01:07:39
we have that in our homes no no I think
01:07:41
it's a thousand a month thousand a month
01:07:44
which would be the equivalent over
01:07:45
whatever number of months and what is it
01:07:47
it does its general purpose does
01:07:49
different stuff General pures robot
01:07:51
$1,000 a month 50 payments I think it
01:07:53
washes the dishes I think it will do the
01:07:56
laundry take out the trash there'll be
01:07:58
like a whole set of house household
01:08:00
tasks that it will do walk the
01:08:03
dog no no not responsible for a live
01:08:07
creature what do you say freeberg $1,000
01:08:09
a month at home robot does your dishes
01:08:11
there's a there's a great bet for us
01:08:13
give us the over under how many years
01:08:14
free I'm not sure I think the sold of
01:08:17
science come on man give us a year well
01:08:19
I I don't think it necessarily follows
01:08:22
this general purpose model I think that
01:08:23
there are like going to be
01:08:28
more
01:08:29
narrow application ranges and they're
01:08:33
not going to necessarily be
01:08:35
humanoid in form factor um I don't know
01:08:39
if you guys have seen a gecko robotics
01:08:41
if have you guys seen this company are
01:08:42
you guys investors in this nope pretty
01:08:45
impressive like Suite of
01:08:48
um autonomous products that do specific
01:08:52
things in industrial settings so they
01:08:54
have like robots that climb on the
01:08:56
outside of buildings and look for cracks
01:08:59
using special scanning equipment but
01:09:01
they're very autonomous in how they
01:09:03
operate and what they can do and they've
01:09:04
got a whole class of robots that can
01:09:07
then be each one of those robots can do
01:09:09
many different tasks for many different
01:09:12
applications and so the form
01:09:14
factors they've got kind of a set of
01:09:16
form factors meaning a set of robots
01:09:18
that look differently and have different
01:09:20
capabilities of them like little spider
01:09:22
legs or arms or or whatever and then
01:09:25
they can be applied to go do something
01:09:28
autonomously and then they just run and
01:09:29
they do it if you pull that up you'll
01:09:31
see it climbing walls riding along pipes
01:09:34
yeah they're purpose Built Well they're
01:09:36
not purpose that's what's interesting
01:09:38
they're they're sort
01:09:39
of a narrow range of applications but
01:09:42
they're not specific to do only one
01:09:45
thing and so they can work in different
01:09:47
environments and do different things and
01:09:49
so you'll kind of pick from their Suite
01:09:51
of robots which ones you want to use to
01:09:53
do different oh God tasks and then they
01:09:56
go and do it it's really interesting
01:09:57
they're mostly using them for industrial
01:09:59
monitoring applications right now like
01:10:00
looking on bridges for brakes and CLE
01:10:04
cleaning windows cleaning windows all
01:10:06
that kind of stuff oh cleaning windows
01:10:08
that's a good one yeah so they've got
01:10:09
like a really cool suite and I think
01:10:11
that's what we're likely to see in
01:10:12
domestic settings as well all right so
01:10:14
you
01:10:16
play by the way I will say the success
01:10:18
of gecko indicates that there's far more
01:10:21
money to be made in industrial
01:10:24
applications and there in consumer
01:10:26
applications today I disagree so these
01:10:29
yeah I think every human's going to have
01:10:31
one of these I think every household in
01:10:33
America every middle class household in
01:10:35
America will have one of these thousand
01:10:37
a month robots in seven years I'll give
01:10:40
it seven you you say do to do everything
01:10:42
I say to do domestic chores taking out
01:10:46
the trash fold and laundry domestic
01:10:49
tasks I just think it's hard to justify
01:10:51
that because you're only spending so
01:10:53
many hours a week doing that sort of
01:10:54
stuff is it really worth a th000 bucks a
01:10:56
month whereas in the industrial setting
01:10:59
it makes a lot more sense those
01:11:00
dangerous tasks like climbing on a
01:11:02
bridge looking at the seams and climbing
01:11:03
on a a building cleaning the windows
01:11:06
those tasks take years to do sometimes
01:11:09
many many years of high-risk human labor
01:11:12
whereas taking out the trash and folding
01:11:14
laundry might be a little bit more hard
01:11:16
to justify this SP all right more
01:11:18
breaking news here during the program
01:11:21
we'll get our war correspondent our
01:11:23
geopolitical expert David Sachs what are
01:11:26
you seeing on the wies S well there's a
01:11:29
NATO meeting going on right now and
01:11:30
blinkin did a press conference where he
01:11:32
says that Ukraine will be joining NATO
01:11:35
that's the big news going viral right
01:11:37
now Ukraine will become a member uh of
01:11:40
NATO uh our purpose at the Summit is to
01:11:44
help build a bridge to that membership
01:11:47
uh and uh to create a clear pathway for
01:11:51
uh for Ukraine uh moving forward but uh
01:11:54
of course we believe that UK Ukraine
01:11:56
deserves to be a member of NATO and that
01:11:58
this should happen sooner rather sooner
01:12:00
sooner rather than later jamat any
01:12:02
thoughts on this flip that just broke
01:12:05
during the
01:12:07
program well we just I think NATO just
01:12:10
added Sweden right and it was done in
01:12:14
pretty record time from application to
01:12:17
admission so I would like to know
01:12:19
whether is this just rhetoric to just
01:12:22
keep everybody at Bay and plate the
01:12:25
ukrainians or is this real the problem
01:12:28
that this creates is that if it is real
01:12:31
and they're admitted then NATO has to
01:12:34
defend Ukraine which means that then
01:12:38
America and all the other NATO allies
01:12:41
would have to fight which means that
01:12:42
we're in a war America should not be in
01:12:45
a war just give you the exact facts you
01:12:48
are correct Sweden Finland applied to
01:12:50
join in May
01:12:52
2022 following Russia's invasion of
01:12:54
Ukraine
01:12:55
and they had been neutral as you know
01:12:57
for many decades
01:12:59
Finland has a massive land border with
01:13:01
Russia and they joined in April of 2023
01:13:04
after applying in May of 22 so just a
01:13:07
year later and Sweden became a member in
01:13:09
March of 2024 just two years later E's
01:13:12
membership was held up by both turkey
01:13:14
and Hungary saak you are a resident
01:13:17
expert on Ukraine and all things
01:13:19
geopolitical your thoughts on the one
01:13:21
hand what blinkin is saying is more the
01:13:23
same here because it's been the
01:13:24
administration's policy to seek to bring
01:13:27
uh Ukraine into NATO since they took
01:13:29
office they've reiterated that over and
01:13:31
over again and it's one of the major
01:13:34
reasons for this war is that the
01:13:35
Russians said over and over again this
01:13:37
was a red line for them that's why
01:13:38
there's a war in Ukraine the idea that
01:13:41
you're going to be able to bring Ukraine
01:13:43
into NATO however when the war is going
01:13:46
so badly is now entering the territory
01:13:49
of being delusional I mean this is like
01:13:51
a delusional comment and if you just
01:13:53
want to understand how badly things are
01:13:55
going look at yesterday's Politico which
01:13:58
was called Ukraine is at Great risk of
01:14:00
its front lines collapsing the source
01:14:02
for this article was high ranking uh
01:14:05
Ukrainian officials close to zelu who's
01:14:08
the former commander-in-chief some
01:14:10
people speculated that zi himself might
01:14:12
be the source but at a minimum it's
01:14:14
high-ranking Ukrainian officers who
01:14:17
reported to zelu and what they say in
01:14:20
this article is that the prognosis in
01:14:22
Ukraine is grim they say that the sad
01:14:25
truth is that even if the funding bill
01:14:28
is approved by the US Congress a massive
01:14:30
resupply may not be enough to prevent a
01:14:32
major Battlefield upset they say that
01:14:34
there is a great risk of the front lines
01:14:36
collapsing wherever Russian generals
01:14:38
decide to focus their offensive which
01:14:40
people expect in the next few months and
01:14:42
there's nothing that can help Ukraine
01:14:45
now because there are no serious
01:14:47
Technologies able to compensate Ukraine
01:14:49
for the large mass of troops Russia is
01:14:51
likely to hurl at us this is a quote
01:14:54
from one of the Ukrainian officials we
01:14:56
don't have those Technologies and the
01:14:58
West doesn't have them as well ins
01:15:01
sufficient numbers so what they're
01:15:03
saying is that even if the funding bill
01:15:05
goes through the 61 billion it's not
01:15:08
going to be enough to save Ukraine and
01:15:10
at the very moment that that is now
01:15:12
being finally honestly reported by
01:15:15
Western media it's something I've been
01:15:17
saying now for months finally the truth
01:15:19
is coming out you have blinkin doubling
01:15:22
and tripling down on these comments that
01:15:24
nevertheless Ukraine will be joining
01:15:25
NATO and chamath is right under Article
01:15:28
5 an attack on one is an attack on all
01:15:31
therefore if Ukraine becomes part of
01:15:33
NATO an attack on Ukraine by Russia
01:15:35
which is currently ongoing will be
01:15:37
considered an attack on the United
01:15:39
States then you have to add to the mix
01:15:41
the fact that macron and other European
01:15:43
leaders have actually been advocating
01:15:45
for NATO descending ground troops and he
01:15:47
said this over and over again he's
01:15:49
doubled down on this multiple times so
01:15:52
you have a dynamic now where this isn't
01:15:54
just hot rhetoric by blinkin this really
01:15:58
has the risk of tipping over into policy
01:16:01
I would say in a Biden second term where
01:16:04
Biden agrees to do what our European
01:16:06
allies are already calling for which is
01:16:09
send in NATO troops to Ukraine to save
01:16:12
Ukraine from what Politico calls an
01:16:14
imminent
01:16:15
collapse I think this is a very
01:16:17
dangerous situation I mean we're really
01:16:19
talking about here is World War III so
01:16:22
if you want to have a serious chance of
01:16:24
World War I in the next four years and I
01:16:25
would say go ahead and vote for Biden in
01:16:26
November I mean this is just very clear
01:16:28
to me I'm personally not willing to
01:16:30
accept that risk I'm not willing to
01:16:31
accept a 10% or 1% risk of that chance
01:16:35
but I think blink putting it on the
01:16:36
table here I think people should be
01:16:38
deeply concerned about this and there
01:16:40
should be a lot of followup questions
01:16:42
for blinkin and the administration about
01:16:44
this freeberg should the free country of
01:16:47
Ukraine be able to join NATO on some
01:16:51
timeline or should they be banned from
01:16:53
ever joining NATO
01:16:56
I think the statements are correct that
01:16:58
Ukraine joining NATO escalates conflict
01:17:00
and we will find ourselves in a
01:17:03
deao global conflict World
01:17:07
War now the question is is that the the
01:17:11
cycle the natural cycle I will once
01:17:14
again Nick pull it up please reference
01:17:16
ralo and his typical big cycle behind
01:17:20
Empires rise and decline as he spoke at
01:17:24
length with us in person about at the
01:17:26
Allin Summit last year he points out
01:17:29
that the era of
01:17:31
prosperity that over the last 500 years
01:17:33
we've seen six major Empires go through
01:17:37
is followed by a debt bubble which uh
01:17:40
drives a wealth gap which ultimately
01:17:43
leads to economic challenges which means
01:17:45
printing more money which is the cycle
01:17:47
we are going through right now with a as
01:17:50
you guys know2 to three trillion dollar
01:17:52
annual deficit and explosion in um
01:17:55
federal debt levels and that ultimately
01:17:58
leads inevitably to external conflict to
01:18:01
war now the particular motivations in
01:18:04
every case in all six times this has
01:18:06
happened in the last 500 years look
01:18:09
different when you read the history
01:18:10
books about what were the circumstances
01:18:13
that drove us to external conflict that
01:18:15
drove that Nation to war but the truth
01:18:18
is every single one of them was preceded
01:18:21
by a debt bubble income and inequality
01:18:24
wealth Gap and the printing of money and
01:18:27
there's a relationship between those
01:18:29
economic factors and a desire for
01:18:31
conflict and I think that is what we are
01:18:34
seeing play out over the past couple of
01:18:35
years starting with our um motivated
01:18:39
interest in supporting Ukraine against
01:18:43
uh the Russia conflict and now
01:18:44
escalating it towards inviting Ukraine
01:18:46
to join NATO to escalate the conflict
01:18:48
itself now I think there's a notion that
01:18:53
having a war is stimulating having a war
01:18:56
is unifying this should Wag the door Wag
01:18:59
the Dog Theory I I don't think it's a
01:19:01
Wag the Dog Theory as much as it is what
01:19:03
do you do when the economic condition of
01:19:06
the na nation is such that the federal
01:19:08
government has to print money to support
01:19:10
the economy and or to bridge the wealth
01:19:13
Gap and when under those circumstances
01:19:15
in order to unify the country in order
01:19:18
to motivate a system of unification
01:19:20
amongst a fracturing Society or
01:19:22
fracturing economic
01:19:25
strata you feel like you have to have an
01:19:27
external enemy and that the notion of
01:19:30
War itself is economically stimulating I
01:19:34
think that those are the motivating
01:19:35
factors that we've seen play out six
01:19:37
times in the last 500 years and we may
01:19:40
be unfortunately seeing play out here
01:19:41
again as we talked to Graham Allison Ray
01:19:44
Doo about last year we said what can we
01:19:47
do to avoid this that there have been
01:19:49
times historically where these things
01:19:51
have been avoided but if we're not being
01:19:54
cognizant what's going on here and
01:19:56
motivating a different tact and a
01:19:59
different path whether it's through our
01:20:01
electoral cycle or through being loud
01:20:05
and vocal in whatever media channels we
01:20:07
each have access to to make folks more
01:20:10
aware of this I think you know we will
01:20:13
find ourselves walking down this path of
01:20:14
looking for global conflict and finding
01:20:16
it jamat you look like you wanted to
01:20:18
chime in there yeah of the three
01:20:20
presidential candidates to be very clear
01:20:23
one is
01:20:25
supportive then of some kind of
01:20:28
Confrontation because by proxy they're
01:20:30
supportive of admitting Ukraine into
01:20:33
NATO which would create a war and two
01:20:35
are pretty clearly antiwar and just for
01:20:36
people who know the uh boom bus cycle
01:20:39
behind Empire's rise and declines you
01:20:41
can see that if you're on the the
01:20:43
YouTube video but the sixth of eight
01:20:47
moments is revolutions and Wars as
01:20:49
freeberg is pointing out there are two
01:20:50
more that come after that debt and
01:20:52
political restructuring and then the New
01:20:55
World Order emerges and so the question
01:20:58
here I guess becomes can diplomacy win
01:21:00
the day and then is blink's point that
01:21:03
they eventually can become a member or
01:21:05
that they're imminently going to become
01:21:07
a member and it's breaking news so we
01:21:09
don't know if he's speaking about this
01:21:12
clearly let's just be really clear on
01:21:14
this the words he used were very
01:21:15
carefully chosen yeah and that means
01:21:18
that there was a media and press
01:21:20
strategy conversation that was had by
01:21:23
him and his staff which obviously
01:21:25
found its way into the White House
01:21:27
administra and that there was executive
01:21:29
conversation about this this is the
01:21:32
positioning we need to now be clearly
01:21:34
stating which means that this is now
01:21:36
policy he did not slip up on those words
01:21:39
this was not some offthe cuff comment
01:21:41
this was clearly a media trained
01:21:43
statement which means that it is it is
01:21:47
Administration deled by him exactly at
01:21:50
the next White House Press Conference
01:21:51
you will hear the question asked by
01:21:53
reporters is this the White House
01:21:55
position and they will say yes it is
01:21:58
yeah and just to be clear that that
01:22:00
video had a couple of edits in it and we
01:22:01
don't have the full press conference
01:22:03
here the quote from the hill is Ukraine
01:22:05
will become a member of NATO period our
01:22:07
purpose at the Summit is to help build a
01:22:10
bridge to that membership which then
01:22:12
seems like this would this if you're
01:22:14
building a bridge that takes time so
01:22:16
maybe they mean overtime the fullness of
01:22:19
time I to be able to do this in the next
01:22:22
year would be if it was on the time
01:22:24
timeline of Finland would be insane I I
01:22:27
cannot it would be insane but they're
01:22:28
not ruling it out and I think you have
01:22:29
to look at the context of what's
01:22:31
Happening he's making these remarks as
01:22:34
all the news from the battlefield is
01:22:36
terrible Ukraine is losing and it's at
01:22:39
risk of collapsing and European leaders
01:22:42
like mccrone are therefore calling for
01:22:45
direct NATO intervention in the war so
01:22:48
for blinkin to be making this sort of
01:22:50
statement as really adding fuel to the
01:22:52
fire and let's see if he walks it back
01:22:54
let's see if clarifies it I predict that
01:22:55
he won't because this is adct
01:22:57
clarification for sure because this does
01:22:59
not feel like it' be good for voting
01:23:01
because the war is incredibly unpopular
01:23:03
it'll make the election pretty simple
01:23:05
every other issue all the social issues
01:23:07
that we fight about will fall away the
01:23:10
debt will fall away the Border will fall
01:23:12
away if this is true it's does America
01:23:15
want to go to war well chamath I think I
01:23:18
think we're already at that point even
01:23:19
if there is some sort of clarification
01:23:21
and the reason I say that is because
01:23:23
Biden clearly is very committed to this
01:23:25
Ukraine policy it didn't just start when
01:23:27
he became president it started when he
01:23:29
became vice president and was managing
01:23:31
the Ukraine portfolio for Obama this is
01:23:34
why Hunter Biden got that job in Ukraine
01:23:37
because Biden was running the show there
01:23:39
and they have been very committed to
01:23:40
this idea of bringing Ukraine into NATO
01:23:42
for decades I mean he supported when he
01:23:44
was a Senator so this is not like
01:23:46
freeberg said this is not like just some
01:23:49
randomly chosen words out of the blue
01:23:50
blink measures his words carefully he
01:23:53
knows what he's saying
01:23:55
and this is something that Biden clearly
01:23:57
is passionate about and what you have to
01:23:59
believe is that in a Biden second term
01:24:02
he's going to manage this whole uh
01:24:04
situation so perfectly that this war is
01:24:07
not going to escalate any further and I
01:24:08
just I have no confidence in that
01:24:10
remember if you want to use a historical
01:24:12
analogy go back to woodro Wilson in 1916
01:24:16
he was elected on literally the
01:24:18
catchphrase he kept us out of War less
01:24:21
than one year later we were in World War
01:24:23
I World War I yeah so this idea of well
01:24:27
Biden wouldn't possibly get us into a
01:24:29
war I mean history shows otherwise
01:24:32
history shows that presidents once they
01:24:35
win reelection are more likely to get us
01:24:38
into war rather than less because they
01:24:40
don't have to fear voters so then the
01:24:43
question is what is in Joe Biden's heart
01:24:46
what's he passionate about he is clearly
01:24:48
passionate about this cause about
01:24:51
bringing Ukraine into NATO and certainly
01:24:53
not having Ukraine collapse or lose this
01:24:55
war whereas Trump and Bobby Kennedy have
01:24:58
both said that they will end this war
01:25:00
they will seek a peace deal if
01:25:04
elected I think that's enough right
01:25:05
there yeah I mean and obviously Lincoln
01:25:08
and Biden are looking for peace as well
01:25:10
they just don't want to lose the war no
01:25:12
they're not looking for peace I disagree
01:25:13
with that I think they are definitely
01:25:15
looking for peace You can disagree but
01:25:16
they definitely want peace why they re
01:25:18
the deal at IST at the beginning of this
01:25:19
war yeah yeah because they uh I think
01:25:22
don't want Russia to determine who gets
01:25:23
to be in NATO and they want free
01:25:25
countries to decide is that a war for I
01:25:28
mean that that is I guess the
01:25:30
existential question here is at what
01:25:32
point do we want to let free democracies
01:25:34
determine their future and protect them
01:25:36
from invading countries that is like
01:25:38
actually the core of this is do you
01:25:40
believe in democracy do you believe free
01:25:42
countries should have the autonomy to
01:25:45
pick their future and is that worth
01:25:47
fighting for that is the question the
01:25:48
world faces right now I think that
01:25:50
framing I think that framing is not
01:25:52
totally accurate I think of course those
01:25:54
things are good and right things I think
01:25:57
the thing is on the balance of issues
01:25:59
there are seasons when certain
01:26:01
priorities need to be shaped by a
01:26:03
country and right now we're in a season
01:26:07
where there's tremendous domestic
01:26:10
instability in our country and and our
01:26:13
bance our country you're saying in our
01:26:15
country yeah and our balance sheet is
01:26:16
breaking so I think the question isn't
01:26:18
that is democracy important of course
01:26:20
it's important it's how relatively
01:26:23
important is it abroad relative to these
01:26:27
domestic issues here yeah that
01:26:30
I hold on let me just finish is it worth
01:26:33
fighting for is the issue and is it
01:26:35
worth fighting for when you don't have
01:26:36
the resources to do it now if we were
01:26:38
sitting here and a country next to
01:26:41
Ukraine was invaded say Finland or say
01:26:44
France or another country in Europe was
01:26:46
invaded we would absolutely go to bat
01:26:49
for them but for Ukraine we won't go to
01:26:51
bat for them they're not part part of
01:26:53
NATO and you know this is the when go to
01:26:56
are you saying are you saying send
01:26:58
American soldiers because that's what
01:26:59
we're talking about if France or Finland
01:27:01
was in would you be opposed if France
01:27:03
would if Russia invaded France would you
01:27:04
defend France would you be in favor of
01:27:06
the course that's our article that's our
01:27:08
article five guarantee under NATO this
01:27:10
is why I don't want to extend an article
01:27:11
5 guarantee to Ukraine because it will
01:27:13
put us directly in conflict with Russia
01:27:16
and I'm not interested in being in war
01:27:17
war II right and then so Finland and
01:27:20
Sweden come up and I guess the argument
01:27:21
would be would you be in favor of
01:27:23
sending troops to defend Finland and
01:27:25
Sweden they latest members of NATO and
01:27:26
would you be in favor of committed now
01:27:28
we're committed and were you in favor of
01:27:30
them joining NATO I guess is the next
01:27:31
question should we discussed it on the
01:27:33
Pod I explained that it was creating a
01:27:34
liability not an asset but what's done
01:27:36
is done should free countries be able to
01:27:38
join NATO I guess is at the end of the I
01:27:40
think that's an excellent question
01:27:41
actually let me make two points on that
01:27:43
the first one is countries don't have a
01:27:45
right to join NATO any more than I have
01:27:47
a right to join Augusta Country Club
01:27:50
just because I'm a golf player doesn't
01:27:51
mean I get to join Augusta okay it's up
01:27:53
to the current membership of Augusta or
01:27:57
NATO to decide whether they're going to
01:27:59
Emmit a country based on what is in
01:28:01
their interest it has never been in our
01:28:03
interest to make Ukraine a security
01:28:05
dependent of the United States sorry
01:28:07
this is the reality the second thing I
01:28:09
want to point out is that what was
01:28:12
Russia demanding they were demanding
01:28:14
Ukrainian neutrality they were not
01:28:17
basically looking to conquer Ukraine
01:28:20
they wanted them to be neutral so
01:28:22
Ukraine did not have to give give up its
01:28:25
freedom okay they just had to agree to
01:28:27
be neutral that was the key issue that's
01:28:30
what makes it very different than some
01:28:31
other historical analogies and that was
01:28:34
not acceptable to us at the very
01:28:35
beginning of the war blinkin said that
01:28:37
we would insist on an open door policy
01:28:40
we would yeah clearly the right move
01:28:41
here would have been to kick the C down
01:28:42
the road and just tell Putin we'll take
01:28:44
it off we'll take NATO off the table for
01:28:46
10 years or 20 years and then we could
01:28:48
have outlasted Putin you and I agreed on
01:28:50
you agreed on that before the war
01:28:52
started and the war started everyone
01:28:55
forgot that that was the key kasus belli
01:28:57
of this war just more diplomacy it's
01:29:00
better can I just say one thing that go
01:29:02
ahead Sak you would be the perfect
01:29:05
member of Augusta were not for one small
01:29:09
issue be careful J Ryan withno oh austa
01:29:14
oh my
01:29:16
gosh that was my favorite from who is
01:29:19
the lunatic derang guy from New York was
01:29:22
he in Congress
01:29:24
they expelled him after six months
01:29:26
George Santos Santos they like are you
01:29:28
Jewish he's like I'm jewi is is is like
01:29:32
a little pause in the
01:29:34
middle all right listen another amazing
01:29:36
episode episode 173 congratulations to
01:29:39
our CEO John Hal he's with us now I
01:29:42
we'll
01:29:43
make Jesus Christ uh nice call back
01:29:48
please do us a favor do us a favor
01:29:51
486,000 people following the YouTube
01:29:54
channel get in there and be part of the
01:29:56
Q&A when we hit 500,000 and your best
01:30:00
chance of being part of the one million
01:30:02
subscriber party which I think chat's
01:30:05
gonna oversee it'll be at the win in Las
01:30:08
Vegas there oh okay there it is we we
01:30:10
have a location and then the Allin Su
01:30:12
make an announcement next
01:30:14
week go to YouTube Type in Allin and
01:30:18
subscribe for the Rainman David Sachs
01:30:21
yeah chth poopaa the German dictator and
01:30:24
your Sultan of science Who Loved Dune 2
01:30:27
he loved it he saw it twice overated
01:30:29
that good I'm going to see it twice I'm
01:30:32
gonna go see it again go see it in IM my
01:30:34
God the comment boards got so
01:30:37
angry furious at furious at overrated I
01:30:41
mean this set them off like nothing has
01:30:43
ever set them off I don't know try
01:30:46
making a comment about Trump enjoy my
01:30:48
world you can't attack Tim Timothy
01:30:52
shalam sh
01:30:55
my God man they were really rushing to
01:30:57
his defense I mean he does look like he
01:31:00
drinks a lot of soy I'll be honest I
01:31:02
think that guy only I don't think that
01:31:04
guy's ever had whole milk I think skinny
01:31:08
I think skinny people like that when
01:31:10
you're super skinny like that you travel
01:31:11
in packs to protect each other as a
01:31:13
group oh so like you can get in a group
01:31:15
like hyenas or something and then just
01:31:17
protect each other yeah it's like like
01:31:19
oh we got to stick up for each other
01:31:20
because if we don't you know hey are you
01:31:23
standing sideways
01:31:25
pod like they're like a pod a pod of the
01:31:28
old like the Roman Turtle protection
01:31:31
thing that they were do yeah yeah
01:31:32
Shields up as one as one so is now up to
01:31:36
630 million in the box office pretty
01:31:39
pretty good run huh you know they're
01:31:41
gonna do D and three now oh it's
01:31:43
definitely happen he's just gonna be
01:31:44
negotiating a big price tagal big deal
01:31:47
yeah big deal all right everybody you
01:31:49
know what to do and we'll see you next
01:31:51
time on love you boys the world greatest
01:31:54
podcast all tell your
01:31:57
friends your win
01:32:00
ride
01:32:04
David and instead we open source it to
01:32:07
the fans and they've just gone crazy
01:32:08
with it love
01:32:13
[Music]
01:32:17
you
01:32:20
besties that's my dog taking your
01:32:22
driveways
01:32:24
oh man oh man myit will meet me at we
01:32:28
should all just get a room and just have
01:32:30
one big huge orgy cuz they're all
01:32:32
useless it's like this like sexual
01:32:33
tension that they just need to release
01:32:41
somehow we need to get merch
01:32:45
[Music]
01:32:50
our I'm going all in
