00:00:00
so i was not going to bring this up sack
00:00:02
said bring it up
00:00:03
no no no no no no no you're already
00:00:05
creating mischaracterizations you said
00:00:08
you want to bring it up i'm like sure i
00:00:09
don't know i'm not going to veto it
00:00:11
i said well you have to bring on my
00:00:12
covid obviously i'm the second bestie to
00:00:14
get covered and i told you offline
00:00:17
without the other two besties uh i will
00:00:20
just say i got it at a social function
00:00:21
period end of story
00:00:23
you said it's okay to talk about
00:00:25
yeah it's not like i wanted to bring it
00:00:26
up you want to bring it up and i'm
00:00:28
allowing it because i i'm fine with it
00:00:30
so go for it we all got something at
00:00:32
saks's event you got covet i got
00:00:34
chlamydia
00:00:37
oh you guys went to the downstairs rooms
00:00:40
downstairs
00:00:46
you promised
00:00:48
it was a great party all right let's
00:00:50
let's hear jason's accusation i've been
00:00:51
hearing about it all week in the chat it
00:00:53
was a great party
00:00:58
jason you were angry you were angry and
00:01:00
you were yeah you were really mad at
00:01:02
sacks because you thought he actually
00:01:04
gave you covet even though saks had
00:01:06
people test every single person tested
00:01:08
on the way in except you jacob j cal you
00:01:11
walked around the velvet i have and you
00:01:13
said guess what i'm a bestie i don't
00:01:14
have to test and you walk right in that
00:01:16
party
00:01:18
at the end of the day there's nothing
00:01:19
one person that flooded the rules got it
00:01:22
karma's a jacob nothing better
00:01:24
personifies poetic justice
00:01:27
i do not place blame on anybody
00:01:30
foreign
00:01:32
you make fun of him you poke him
00:01:34
in this
00:01:37
super spreader it was a gop superstar
00:01:40
you go to his party
00:01:41
and you run around the velvet rope and
00:01:43
you don't get your test and you go in
00:01:45
and you walk out with why should i have
00:01:46
to test
00:01:47
why should i have to it was really
00:01:49
amazing i don't wait all night so i'm a
00:01:50
bestie i think he walked out with kovac
00:01:52
because i think he walked in with covet
00:01:53
there you go he's the only one not to
00:01:55
test so who brought it in
00:01:56
test my daughter and i came to your
00:01:58
wonderful party it was amazing it was
00:02:00
delightful and we tested and no you
00:02:03
didn't when when you got the party
00:02:17
testing with me i had the bracelet i
00:02:19
tested it a hundred percent well i
00:02:20
remember when you got into the party and
00:02:22
i said how'd your covet test go you said
00:02:24
oh i pulled my bestie card i walked
00:02:26
around i pulled my best picture
00:02:28
that's not true that's true that's why
00:02:30
you said that you guys are getting
00:02:32
probably making up now no you
00:02:34
said that okay i mean i may have made a
00:02:37
joke but
00:02:38
hold on guys and then i find out the
00:02:40
reason why jade wasn't at the party she
00:02:42
was home taking care of two sick kids
00:02:44
no she wasn't we yes she was one kid
00:02:57
all right here's what happened i went to
00:02:59
the party
00:03:01
uh i did test
00:03:02
there was a group of people that got
00:03:04
there early had tested at another event
00:03:06
they told me this they tested before
00:03:08
they got there and they told me that
00:03:10
they had accidentally uh brought it with
00:03:12
them because they were the first to
00:03:16
have a positive test result so in all
00:03:18
likelihood it was that group there's no
00:03:20
it doesn't matter who brought it because
00:03:21
omnicrom ominicron is going everywhere
00:03:24
what is it um
00:03:26
it's a it's a character from trade i
00:03:28
don't understand that what do you mean
00:03:29
they brought it with them if they tested
00:03:31
negatives came from another location
00:03:34
they tested they claimed they tested
00:03:38
then they were the first to come up that
00:03:40
next day with a positive result which
00:03:42
takes longer 24 hours to incubate right
00:03:45
so that means they must have brought it
00:03:47
with them they they tested it on sunday
00:03:49
and had it they were your supporters
00:03:51
negative at the door
00:03:52
they did not test at the door they told
00:03:53
me they told me they tested the day
00:03:55
before
00:03:56
no everybody was just at the door
00:04:04
oh you're trying to blame it on
00:04:06
no i specifically have tried to not say
00:04:08
the person's name and you're trying to
00:04:10
include it's gonna get bleeped out it
00:04:11
doesn't matter they were all negative at
00:04:13
the time of the party you hosted a super
00:04:15
spreader they didn't get it till like
00:04:16
five days later so they were not the
00:04:18
earliest detectives you tested positive
00:04:20
you had symptoms before they did
00:04:22
remember the tickle in the throat guys
00:04:24
remember what he said last week he had
00:04:25
the tickle in the throat anyway thank
00:04:28
you for giving me um
00:04:29
omicron i am now super according
00:04:33
to all results i am now superman have
00:04:35
you tested negative now not yet i i did
00:04:38
a test yesterday nine days later i'm
00:04:39
still coming up positive i had two days
00:04:41
of symptoms not that any of you give a
00:04:42
you rap bastards
00:04:45
did you just laugh about my covet nobody
00:04:47
had no point in this conversation did
00:04:49
any of you say how are you feeling was
00:04:50
there any chance of death
00:04:53
was there any chance i was triple
00:04:55
i had done modern yeah at any point
00:04:57
though did you feel like oh i may
00:04:58
have to go to the hospital
00:05:00
no that's too bad i felt the tickle in
00:05:02
my throat on tuesday
00:05:04
he coughed three times he seems twice
00:05:06
and prematurely ejaculated once those
00:05:08
were his symptoms
00:05:12
[Music]
00:05:23
[Music]
00:05:28
this is going to be our prediction show
00:05:29
last week we did of course our 2021
00:05:32
bestie awards uh how did everybody feel
00:05:34
about last week's awards i think it was
00:05:36
great
00:05:38
yeah i was happy it was a fun show i
00:05:40
think we um we all got to
00:05:42
kind of talk about stuff we wanted to
00:05:43
talk about and uh
00:05:45
and it was pretty dynamic i thought it
00:05:46
was a good show i liked it it was like
00:05:48
the greatest hits so uh we're going to
00:05:50
do some predictions for next year are
00:05:52
you gonna do a drum roll in a and a
00:05:53
little scene as well yes okay here we go
00:05:56
here's an opening but it's gonna be like
00:05:57
flying into the future like going
00:05:59
through space
00:06:01
space
00:06:02
warp speed warp speed
00:06:12
biggest political winner 2022 what did
00:06:14
tucker carlson's former writers uh tell
00:06:16
you to say sex
00:06:19
[Music]
00:06:27
people were intrigued about what was the
00:06:30
second battle about
00:06:32
that was the big debate
00:06:34
who knows i can't remember the battle
00:06:37
about the beep beep which led to me
00:06:40
writing the google doc about beep beep
00:06:42
oh i know what it was
00:06:44
then i deserve a better award for that
00:06:46
who's your biggest political winner okay
00:06:48
come on let's stop at the inside
00:06:49
baseball my biggest political winner for
00:06:51
2022.
00:06:52
i predict uh my man ron desantis will be
00:06:55
the big winner he's up for re-election
00:06:56
in florida he won
00:06:58
uh in 2018 with less than one percent of
00:07:01
the vote it was a real nail-biter this
00:07:03
time i think he's going to cruise to
00:07:05
re-election quite handily and become the
00:07:08
national front-runner on the gop side
00:07:10
and the reason is because
00:07:13
he had the right approach on kovitt he
00:07:15
made the vaccine available he made the
00:07:16
antibodies available but ultimately he
00:07:19
treated the population like adults he
00:07:21
let them make their own decisions he
00:07:23
kept businesses open schools open and i
00:07:25
think the rest of the country is going
00:07:27
to come around to his point of view
00:07:29
because the unstoppability of omicron
00:07:32
next year and so i think that
00:07:35
desantis who is much maligned and
00:07:37
disparaged will come out as the big
00:07:39
winner a year from now all right who do
00:07:41
you got free burke vladimir putin um i
00:07:44
think putin's gonna benefit from the
00:07:46
rising conflict
00:07:48
between the u.s and china
00:07:49
uh the other day there was a call
00:07:52
between putin
00:07:54
and um
00:07:56
g and they said uh and and putin called
00:07:58
g his dear friend
00:08:00
and said that relations between the two
00:08:02
countries had reached an unprecedentedly
00:08:04
high level
00:08:05
and i think that his position um
00:08:07
economically as a trade partner with
00:08:08
china and as a beneficiary of chinese
00:08:12
economic prosperity will only grow as
00:08:15
tensions between the us and china rise
00:08:18
i think we're seeing that with some of
00:08:20
his cavalier behavior with the ukraine
00:08:22
right now
00:08:24
and i think putin will become a stronger
00:08:26
player on the global stage
00:08:28
uh particularly as it relates to his
00:08:30
relationship with nato
00:08:32
uh over the next year um and he's been a
00:08:34
little bit quiet the last few years he
00:08:35
was kind of i'd say suppressed with
00:08:38
sanctions and all the other nonsense
00:08:39
that's gone on
00:08:41
uh to keep him at bay but he could kind
00:08:43
of rise up again in 2022 and and he
00:08:45
could become a real player on the
00:08:47
geopolitical stage globally um in a more
00:08:49
meaningful way than he has in the last
00:08:50
couple years i mean you you white guys
00:08:52
love putin it's crazy the whites love
00:08:54
poop i don't love it god i hate putin i
00:08:56
mean if you ranked if you ranked russia
00:08:58
gdp do you know even do you have any
00:09:00
idea where it even ranks you know
00:09:01
russian gdp is probably i mean you guys
00:09:03
for the amount of time you guys give
00:09:05
probably
00:09:06
probably
00:09:08
nigeria is like crushes russia nobody
00:09:10
ever talks about nigeria has all the
00:09:12
same inputs except they're black they
00:09:14
just don't have 2 000 nuclear weapons
00:09:17
i mean this is a big reason i mean it's
00:09:19
a fallen empire for sure but they still
00:09:20
have thousand nukes yeah they land the
00:09:23
position the energy that it provides the
00:09:25
only one in europe i mean russia is
00:09:27
geopolitically pretty uh significant
00:09:30
insignificant economically significant
00:09:32
because they have a madman running the
00:09:33
country i don't think he's a madman but
00:09:35
i'm just saying that you know there's a
00:09:37
there's a lot of ink that's spilled
00:09:39
about russia and i don't think anybody
00:09:41
even takes a step back and actually
00:09:42
looks like who do you got for yours it's
00:09:44
not true in the world guys
00:09:46
uh my my worldwide
00:09:50
biggest political winner for 20 to 2022
00:09:52
is xi jinping
00:09:56
i think this guy is uh
00:09:59
he's firing on all cylinders and he uh
00:10:04
is basically ascendant so 2022 marks the
00:10:07
first year where he's essentially really
00:10:08
ruler for life and so i don't think we
00:10:11
really know what he's capable of and
00:10:12
what he's going to do and so that's just
00:10:14
going to play out you think he's the
00:10:15
biggest political winner really oh my
00:10:17
god i think i think it's going to be a
00:10:19
he's going to run roughshod not just
00:10:21
domestically but also internationally
00:10:23
because you have to remember
00:10:24
he controls so much of the critical
00:10:27
supply chain that the western world
00:10:29
needs to be i think he's completely
00:10:31
i think you're completely wrong i think
00:10:33
he's losing his power he's scared that's
00:10:35
why he took out all these ceos he's
00:10:37
consolidating power because he fears
00:10:38
that they're gonna
00:10:40
win too big and then displace him and
00:10:43
he has massive real estate problems over
00:10:45
there that could blow up at any moment
00:10:46
in time he could face a civil war there
00:10:48
i think he's totally isolated himself
00:10:50
civil war they don't even have a major
00:10:52
country is removing their factories and
00:10:54
removing this dependency there what are
00:10:56
you talking about what are they what's
00:10:57
that what are they gonna riot with
00:11:00
uh did you not see tiananmen square did
00:11:02
you not see the riots in hong kong are
00:11:03
you not paying attention to moth there's
00:11:05
been many riots in china
00:11:07
to kill those were crushed
00:11:09
and that's not saying it would be
00:11:10
actually he still will have massive
00:11:13
amounts of
00:11:14
uh i believe protests and yeah i think i
00:11:16
think i think the the bigger risk is is
00:11:19
that china gets better for xi jinping
00:11:21
but worse for everybody else in china
00:11:23
it's already worse for all the
00:11:24
billionaires uh over there it's worse
00:11:26
for the tech industry you've now got
00:11:28
evergrand that whole uh you know
00:11:30
gigantic debt implosion i think there
00:11:33
could be contagion from china next year
00:11:35
i don't think she's gonna lose his grip
00:11:38
in any way
00:11:39
but i'm not sure china's gonna have a
00:11:41
good year next year it's gonna be
00:11:42
terrible um i went with ron desantis
00:11:44
with you sax i think he's obviously um a
00:11:48
much more
00:11:49
um
00:11:50
he's a much more palatable
00:11:54
candidate than trump and i think trump
00:11:56
is not going to want to run and that
00:11:58
brings me to my biggest political loser
00:12:00
for 2022 as we segway i believe this is
00:12:03
going to be split between biden and
00:12:04
trump the two most important people of
00:12:07
the last uh four years and i think biden
00:12:10
is going to lose the midterms and i
00:12:11
think trump is going to get destroyed
00:12:13
with this january 6th thing and
00:12:15
uh bow out and not run again who do you
00:12:17
got for your biggest loser let me add an
00:12:19
octogenarian to that which is my my pick
00:12:21
for biggest political loser next year is
00:12:23
nancy pelosi i there's a red wave coming
00:12:26
the democrats for sure are going to lose
00:12:27
the house that is baked into the cake
00:12:29
and i predict she will announce her
00:12:31
retirement shortly after that
00:12:33
she has served you know a couple of
00:12:35
pretty consequential terms as speaker
00:12:37
she's never lost a vote but
00:12:40
with this whole build back better she
00:12:41
forced all her moderates to take a vote
00:12:44
on five trillion in new spending which
00:12:45
they then lost in the senate and that's
00:12:47
gonna cost them some seats so she
00:12:49
contributed to i think her own downfall
00:12:52
that's going to happen next year is
00:12:54
nancy to come work at social capital and
00:12:55
you're going to give her a bucket of
00:12:57
capital to work with
00:12:59
to try to play the market
00:13:02
by the way jason who's the excellent
00:13:03
writer you got from tucker because i
00:13:04
want to hire them
00:13:06
all right listen i uh i got somebody
00:13:08
from the youtube comments who said they
00:13:09
would they would punch me up
00:13:11
all right i got biden and trump nancy
00:13:13
pelosi uh and then who do you got
00:13:15
freeburg who's your biggest political
00:13:16
user of 2022 prediction mine's a little
00:13:19
uh
00:13:21
depressing but i i'm honestly a little
00:13:23
bit worried about the united states
00:13:25
influence on kind of a global stage
00:13:28
socially
00:13:29
politically economically
00:13:32
and i think that there's a number of
00:13:34
events that could catalyze kind of a
00:13:36
precipitous series of events
00:13:39
um that could really harm the continuing
00:13:41
influence the u.s has geopolitically so
00:13:44
i i um
00:13:46
you know i don't really have an
00:13:47
individual but i kind of have the us and
00:13:49
it's and its role on the global
00:13:50
geopolitical stage u.s influence u.s
00:13:52
influence yeah and you said you thought
00:13:54
there was going to be this uh potential
00:13:56
tipping point perhaps you see that being
00:13:58
taiwan or what i've got a couple of them
00:14:00
i think when we get into our contrarian
00:14:02
points of view i'll share some of them
00:14:04
okay uh chamath who do you got for your
00:14:06
biggest political loser for 2022
00:14:08
prediction
00:14:09
well look i uh i like your pick of trump
00:14:13
which is not mine but just a double down
00:14:14
on this trump thing it's incredible to
00:14:16
see
00:14:17
that he's just a bamboozler you know
00:14:20
that's the same guy who's like you know
00:14:24
telling people to not take the vaccine
00:14:26
gets boosted
00:14:28
then you know when he finally gets outed
00:14:30
with this other scumbag
00:14:32
what's that guy's name
00:14:35
what's that other right
00:14:37
knob sacks take out your phone and go to
00:14:39
speed dial just read it
00:14:46
those two dopes on stage are like yeah i
00:14:48
got boosted what about you yeah i got
00:14:49
triple facts then and then everybody's
00:14:52
booing them i mean they're just such
00:14:54
watch what they do not what they say
00:14:55
guys
00:14:58
the great thing is they are phenomenal
00:14:59
entertainers but you can't trust a
00:15:01
single word that they say so uh jason i
00:15:04
i think that that's a pretty good pick
00:15:06
my pick is the progressive left um as a
00:15:08
class
00:15:09
because i think these guys are being
00:15:11
exposed
00:15:13
basically for just being laughing stocks
00:15:15
they'll be quickly becoming
00:15:16
policy jokes inside of washington and in
00:15:20
every city state that they run
00:15:24
they just can't seem to put one foot in
00:15:25
front of the other and they've been run
00:15:27
amok with folks like
00:15:30
these teachers unions who have really
00:15:32
really really done a number on our
00:15:34
children which is now finally getting
00:15:35
exposed in the mainstream media
00:15:38
and so all of these policies are just
00:15:41
they're not rooted in any sort of
00:15:42
science or legitimacy so they are
00:15:45
i think going to pay a pretty heavy
00:15:47
political price for mainstream voters in
00:15:49
22. you know what they remind me of
00:15:50
those two guys like uh the old guys from
00:15:53
the muppets statler and waldorf that's
00:15:54
what like
00:15:56
those uh trump and uh o'reilly are okay
00:15:59
i think biden can still save save a lot
00:16:02
of his
00:16:03
long-term reputation i think trump's
00:16:05
what would biden need to do in 2022
00:16:07
number one he needs to disavow the the
00:16:10
progressives and basically shore up his
00:16:12
party's ability to win back some seats
00:16:14
and hold the line and so how would he do
00:16:17
to be able to enter some of these places
00:16:19
with some of this rhetoric that you know
00:16:21
he basically was convinced would be
00:16:23
necessary for him to not lose the
00:16:25
progressive left there just needs to be
00:16:26
a conversation inside the white house
00:16:28
where they actually go through the cold
00:16:29
political calculus of you know my
00:16:32
enemy's enemy is actually my friend kind
00:16:33
of thing and actually go back to the
00:16:35
center yeah he needs to pull up bill
00:16:36
clinton then trying he needs to pull
00:16:38
brooklyn okay and quickly too
00:16:41
i think it's way too early to conclude
00:16:42
that the bind presidency is over i mean
00:16:44
i think i think they're gonna lose
00:16:46
congress next year that's baked into the
00:16:48
cake but
00:16:49
he's still got two years after that to
00:16:50
pull his chest outside of the fire
00:16:52
and if the republicans overplay their
00:16:54
hand and he tacks towards the center
00:16:57
you know he can change his fortunes he
00:16:59
can change his fortunes quickly he's
00:17:00
down a pawn but he could develop the
00:17:02
board i got him all right i think the
00:17:04
voice of populism is only going to swell
00:17:06
over the next year and um that that's
00:17:09
going to be the predominant force that's
00:17:11
going to drive both the alt-right
00:17:14
and the progressive left and it you know
00:17:16
you could make the case that you know
00:17:17
politicians that are in seats
00:17:19
should be kind of disavowing these what
00:17:21
we today are calling kind of extreme
00:17:23
voices but they're only getting louder
00:17:26
and the importance of kind of populist
00:17:28
movements not just in the us but you
00:17:29
look around the world i mean look at
00:17:30
what's happening in brazil
00:17:32
uh various european countries i mean it
00:17:34
is like so you think populism is going
00:17:36
to have a a rebound in 2022 we're all
00:17:39
saying that we think it's fizzling well
00:17:41
i can i just say free breakfast i think
00:17:42
populism swelling and i think it's going
00:17:44
to get louder and okay low interest low
00:17:46
interest rates are simply keeping things
00:17:48
at bay for now and i think that's going
00:17:50
to shift very quickly and um
00:17:52
populism just means what's popular and
00:17:54
so i think there's a huge silent
00:17:56
majority that's always stayed on the
00:17:58
sidelines because they're not the ones
00:17:59
that that are tend to tend to have a
00:18:02
tendency to complain but when things get
00:18:04
important enough they typically show up
00:18:05
and so you know we may find that
00:18:07
actually centrism is what's most popular
00:18:09
i think populism is um anti-elitism and
00:18:13
i think that there is a growing concern
00:18:14
globally because of globalization that
00:18:17
power and capital has been concentrated
00:18:20
in the hands of a few
00:18:22
that the voice of the majority is we
00:18:24
want to be shared we want that to all be
00:18:26
shared equally and that's what's driving
00:18:28
populism around the world and it's in
00:18:30
the us
00:18:31
you know manifesting in different ways
00:18:33
on the left and the right and you'll see
00:18:34
this in other countries around the world
00:18:36
but i don't see the fundamental driving
00:18:39
forces changing there until and unless
00:18:42
we have massive taxation and
00:18:44
redistribute wealth in a meaningful way
00:18:46
or some massive shift in government um
00:18:49
that that voice is gonna get any quieter
00:18:50
i think it's only gonna get louder and
00:18:52
there may be perturbations between here
00:18:54
and there of like what it looks like but
00:18:56
it doesn't seem to be going away
00:18:58
that that's that's just to me kind of
00:19:00
the underlying driving force and it's
00:19:02
manifesting with different political
00:19:03
stuff right now but interesting um it's
00:19:05
not it doesn't seem to be silent biggest
00:19:08
business winner for twenty twenty two
00:19:10
month let's start with you
00:19:11
small businesses um
00:19:13
i think what we are
00:19:16
starting to see
00:19:17
is that these monolithic
00:19:20
monopolistic megacorps aren't everything
00:19:22
that they're cracked up to be and so
00:19:24
there's going to be a certain amount of
00:19:26
lock-in that we will tolerate
00:19:29
there's going to be a lot of taxation
00:19:31
and policy
00:19:33
that prevents its further growth
00:19:36
and all of that opportunity accrues to
00:19:39
smaller companies and so in general i
00:19:41
think that if you are on the side of the
00:19:43
david versus these goliaths over the
00:19:46
next year you're going to have or well
00:19:48
frankly over the next several decades
00:19:49
but starting really next year
00:19:51
you're going to do really well and the
00:19:53
middle companies so the folks that are
00:19:55
neither huge nor are small let's take a
00:19:58
you know an example like a shopify 100
00:20:00
billion dollar market cap but by no
00:20:02
means is it a trillion dollar market cap
00:20:04
their success comes from enabling you
00:20:07
know arming the rebels
00:20:09
and so
00:20:11
i'm a huge fan of these enabling this
00:20:13
enabling layer for small businesses both
00:20:15
offline and online who do you got
00:20:16
freebird um i am actually gonna go with
00:20:19
stripe stripe is a payment technology
00:20:22
company based in san francisco
00:20:24
uh stripe raised money earlier this year
00:20:26
at a 95 billion dollar valuation um the
00:20:28
highest valued ipo tech ipo in history
00:20:31
was alibaba they were valued at 230
00:20:33
billion dollars when they went public
00:20:36
we are hearing
00:20:37
rumors that stripe might you know kind
00:20:39
of
00:20:40
or think that the bankers think they
00:20:42
might be able to break that and so
00:20:44
stripes ipo could be the biggest tech
00:20:45
ipo ever um i think they've been talking
00:20:48
about doing a direct listing by the way
00:20:49
i don't know the guys i don't know the
00:20:50
investors i don't know the company i'm
00:20:52
not an investor so i don't have any
00:20:54
information whatsoever i'm simply an
00:20:55
observer and and talk to people in the
00:20:57
market but it sounds like they're going
00:20:59
for direct listing and we could see that
00:21:01
become the highest valuation tech ipo
00:21:03
ever and then they will become kind of
00:21:04
the golden child next year
00:21:07
uh and you know kind of
00:21:09
be be part of the you know the the top
00:21:11
of the top what do you got
00:21:13
sex i got rise of the rest meaning the
00:21:17
parts of the united states that are not
00:21:18
the traditional california new york
00:21:21
centers of industry and wealth i think
00:21:23
it's a trend that's been going on but
00:21:25
it's going to keep getting bigger next
00:21:27
year if you guys saw the net migration
00:21:29
numbers
00:21:30
by state they're absolutely stunning
00:21:32
stunning so and it's the it's the zero
00:21:35
tax states that are just booming right
00:21:36
now it's states like florida and texas
00:21:38
and tennessee and on and on it goes at
00:21:41
the huge expense of california and new
00:21:43
york i think that trend's only going to
00:21:45
pick up steam now that salt is dead i
00:21:47
think there was a hope
00:21:49
on the part of many people that you know
00:21:50
trump got rid of salt but and the
00:21:52
democrats were supposed to bring it back
00:21:53
and then aoc rejected it it's not coming
00:21:56
back and what that means is that if
00:21:58
you're in safe
00:21:59
california for example
00:22:01
you know with assault deduction your
00:22:03
effective tax rate was around eight
00:22:04
percent not 13.3 percent now it really
00:22:07
is 13.3 percent that's a huge increase
00:22:10
and the politicians in california don't
00:22:12
even realize that the tax rate has
00:22:14
effectively gone up to the end taxpayer
00:22:17
and uh and and the quality of life isn't
00:22:19
any better we're not getting anything
00:22:21
more for that and so i think this x is
00:22:22
coming so that's that's the subtle map
00:22:24
that they actually really need to
00:22:25
understand
00:22:27
that 500 basis points you can overcome
00:22:29
that if your life is five percent better
00:22:31
in enough ways where you're like it's
00:22:33
fine and the reason why people are
00:22:35
leaving is they feel that their life is
00:22:37
actually much less than five percent
00:22:40
worse right if the traffic light doesn't
00:22:42
justify it you know your windows are
00:22:44
getting smashed in all the time safe
00:22:46
your kids are you know depressed and
00:22:47
need counseling because of the way that
00:22:49
the teachers unions lock them out of
00:22:50
school you're just like forget this i
00:22:52
can't do this anymore right you gotta
00:22:54
add those two numbers yeah you're here
00:22:56
that's what that's what people really
00:22:57
need to appreciate i don't think it's
00:22:59
the actual effective tax rate but it's
00:23:01
the delta of how poor your quality of
00:23:02
life has gotten over these last few
00:23:04
years relative to the tax you pay
00:23:07
yeah i totally agree with that and then
00:23:09
one other effect that i think plays into
00:23:11
this is the reshoring of american
00:23:12
industry which is not happening in
00:23:14
places like california new york it's
00:23:16
happening in places like texas sure
00:23:17
samsung just announced a 17 billion
00:23:19
dollar
00:23:20
investment in a new chip
00:23:22
foundry in texas here i'll post this and
00:23:25
there's a lot of things like this
00:23:27
happening so as we decouple from china
00:23:29
and bring our supply chain home let's go
00:23:31
that is going to be a big factor in the
00:23:33
rise of the rest love it love it it it's
00:23:35
great it's great for america because the
00:23:36
wealth does need to be more evenly
00:23:38
distributed it can't just go to tech and
00:23:40
finance elites in california in new york
00:23:43
yeah
00:23:44
all right um i had two uh disney was my
00:23:47
uh biggest corporate winner for 2022
00:23:49
disney plus crushing it parks raised
00:23:51
prices people want to go to the park
00:23:53
spider-man just had i think the number
00:23:55
two or number three all-time
00:23:57
opening in a pandemic which is crazy
00:24:00
that ip is going to continue to work for
00:24:01
them john favreau
00:24:04
and david fiolini i think is how you
00:24:06
pronounce his last name both crushing it
00:24:07
with mandalorian boba fett one of the
00:24:10
great characters
00:24:11
from our childhood now is going to have
00:24:13
his own book of boba fett starting on
00:24:15
december 29th is that today or tomorrow
00:24:17
uh tomorrow and so i think disney's
00:24:19
gonna have a huge surge i think they're
00:24:21
undervalued but my my number one for
00:24:23
this category of biggest business winner
00:24:24
for 2022 was millennials in gen z i
00:24:27
think that they became completely
00:24:28
empowered and independent they shook off
00:24:31
the participation trophies
00:24:33
and their entitlement during covid
00:24:36
they realized that they have skills that
00:24:38
are valuable they're sought after they
00:24:40
learned how to make money they traded
00:24:42
crypto they did stock trading they're
00:24:44
doing shorts puts whatever
00:24:46
on robinhood and they're just not
00:24:48
impressed with people in power and they
00:24:50
increasingly want to build and make
00:24:52
money i think that those two generations
00:24:54
have woken up and i think they're going
00:24:55
to be the biggest winners in 2022
00:24:57
because
00:24:58
dovetailing with your smbs chamoth i do
00:25:01
think uh and i'm seeing it across my
00:25:03
entire portfolio of companies uh you try
00:25:05
to hire somebody and they're like yeah
00:25:06
but maybe i can start my own company and
00:25:07
sacks are actually saying a flavor of
00:25:09
the same thing actually yeah because all
00:25:11
these smbs aren't gonna happen in new
00:25:13
york and san francisco they're happening
00:25:14
all over
00:25:15
america and they're people that are
00:25:16
taking empowerment into their own hands
00:25:18
there's tooling for them and there's
00:25:20
opportunity economic opportunity for
00:25:22
them to build businesses on their own
00:25:24
and basically just say you know few
00:25:26
build your
00:25:28
nothing builds your confidence like
00:25:30
moving from one city to another and
00:25:32
having that's a very empowering thing to
00:25:34
do when you're just like you know what
00:25:34
i'm going to just leave and go somewhere
00:25:35
else i'll make it myself so i feel like
00:25:38
they are uh super impressive to me i
00:25:40
really believe in i really believe in
00:25:42
this because the three of us got there
00:25:43
in totally different ways but i think
00:25:44
it's roughly all the same we might be
00:25:46
triangulating around a trend here
00:25:47
biggest business loser for 2022. i'll
00:25:50
just give it real quick i think crypto
00:25:52
projects that actually don't deliver a
00:25:54
product in 2022 are
00:25:56
just going to be um
00:25:59
lost i think this idea that people are
00:26:01
going to bet on things that don't exist
00:26:03
in the real world or don't actually have
00:26:04
applications is going to end it's time
00:26:06
for crypto to put up or shut up and i
00:26:08
think the crypto projects that do that
00:26:10
which a number of them are starting to
00:26:12
are going to soar but it's going to be a
00:26:13
big shake out there what do you got for
00:26:15
biggest business loser in 2022 freeburg
00:26:18
i agree with you actually that was mine
00:26:20
yeah oh wow
00:26:21
i said crypto bubble will burst there's
00:26:23
a lot of scammy nonsense going on 90 of
00:26:26
these projects okay you know are not
00:26:28
going to yield value and fundamentals
00:26:30
and i also think that rising interest
00:26:32
rates are going to affect the crypto
00:26:34
market there's a lot of leveraged trades
00:26:36
into the crypto
00:26:38
assets
00:26:39
those will start to deliver
00:26:41
as these interest rates shift up
00:26:44
and as a whole you'll see a large
00:26:46
percentage of them go away or decline in
00:26:48
value but a small number will continue
00:26:49
to grow in value just like we saw when
00:26:51
the dot-com bubble blew up there was a
00:26:53
number of companies that survived
00:26:55
most of them did not and the few that
00:26:57
did survive ended up being coming worth
00:26:59
10 times what the current market value
00:27:00
is and i think that that's still
00:27:01
possible with these crypto projects but
00:27:03
uh i'd say 90 percent of them are
00:27:05
probably going to start to blow up next
00:27:06
year what do you got your mother
00:27:09
well i guess i'm fading you guys and i'm
00:27:11
also fading implicitly friedberg's pick
00:27:13
of stripe but
00:27:15
my biggest
00:27:16
business loser for 2022 is visa and
00:27:19
mastercard and traditional payment rails
00:27:20
and the entire ecosystem around it so i
00:27:23
think
00:27:24
that this is the year you can put on
00:27:26
what probably will be the most
00:27:28
profitable spread trade of my lifetime
00:27:31
which is to be short these companies and
00:27:34
that anybody that basically lives off of
00:27:36
this two or three percent tax
00:27:38
and be long
00:27:40
well thought out
00:27:42
web three crypto projects that are
00:27:44
rebuilding payments infrastructure
00:27:46
in a completely decentralized way
00:27:49
now that doesn't necessarily mean that
00:27:50
what you say won't also happen both that
00:27:53
stripe will have an incredible ipo and
00:27:55
that a lot of these scammy crypto
00:27:56
projects will go to zero however if you
00:27:58
read the white papers of these crypto
00:28:00
projects
00:28:01
and you systematically put together a
00:28:03
framework i think you can be long those
00:28:05
and you can be short visa mastercard
00:28:07
because i think this is their peak
00:28:09
market count
00:28:11
and for those of you don't know fading
00:28:12
and sports betting taking the opposite
00:28:14
side of a bet
00:28:15
taking the opposite team i guess man
00:28:16
visas market cap is half a trillion
00:28:18
dollars huh
00:28:20
it's incredible it's a completely
00:28:22
contrived duopoly and what does it mean
00:28:24
to a young person and mastercard's
00:28:26
almost 400 billion so they're trillion
00:28:28
dollar combined market
00:28:30
you have to understand that the canary
00:28:32
in the coal mine here is pretty
00:28:33
significant the most important thing is
00:28:35
amazon
00:28:36
earlier this year nick maybe you can
00:28:38
post this decided to just shut visa off
00:28:40
in the uk oh yeah now amazon is not
00:28:43
going to do something like that in my
00:28:44
opinion unless it's a test of what they
00:28:47
can do all around the world and again
00:28:48
going back to this idea of
00:28:50
arming the rebels there really is no
00:28:53
need today for all of these small
00:28:55
businesses to sit on top of visa
00:28:58
mastercard and amex rails it's
00:28:59
unnecessary and so it'll probably get
00:29:02
developed in the developing world first
00:29:04
this is why i think you know focusing in
00:29:06
markets like nigeria to me are way more
00:29:08
exciting than talking about
00:29:10
you know these fading
00:29:12
western european countries who cares
00:29:14
right
00:29:15
this is where this stuff will happen
00:29:18
um it's not to say that those are those
00:29:19
other companies can't
00:29:21
you know trundle along for a while
00:29:23
but when i say you know we'll look back
00:29:25
in 10 years
00:29:26
and their market caps will be materially
00:29:29
lower
00:29:30
anybody in those traditional
00:29:31
infrastructure and rails
00:29:33
versus anybody in this new
00:29:35
infrastructure in rails will be it will
00:29:37
look like a no-brainer do you consider
00:29:39
the buy now pay later companies like a
00:29:41
firm and upstart or whatever i don't
00:29:43
know if upstart fits in that category
00:29:45
but some of these buy now pay later
00:29:46
businesses as being the alternative to
00:29:48
the traditional payment networks or do
00:29:49
you think that it's a different business
00:29:51
no i right now i think what what by now
00:29:53
pay later is is is a rate arbitrage
00:29:56
right when as you said earlier rates are
00:29:58
very very low so the cost of capital is
00:30:00
low
00:30:01
but it again starts to habituate the
00:30:03
consumer experience to i don't need to
00:30:05
pay these users rates to these three
00:30:07
credit card companies to facilitate a
00:30:10
transaction of money that i already have
00:30:12
or money that i'm good for that's the
00:30:14
big idea right and so when you translate
00:30:16
that into web 3 in a good project or a
00:30:18
good series of projects
00:30:20
you're not going to need these companies
00:30:21
and so it's going to i think eviscerate
00:30:24
trillions of dollars of bargaining
00:30:26
you also have in between these two venmo
00:30:29
and cash app which are not crypto but
00:30:31
they certainly as brands mean more to
00:30:33
you this is why like do you think
00:30:35
yeah do you think block used to be
00:30:37
called square is a good fair trade
00:30:38
against visa mastercard in this context
00:30:41
yeah i like it
00:30:42
you know i think that that that starts
00:30:44
to get closer to to the truth my
00:30:47
perspective is
00:30:48
you can kind of short anybody who's
00:30:50
public because anybody who's public can
00:30:52
really only be public or will go public
00:30:56
because they feast off of this
00:30:58
artificial two or three percent
00:31:00
transaction fee everybody does
00:31:02
the companies you want to belong are
00:31:04
those private companies in crypto that
00:31:06
you can read the white papers of whose
00:31:08
protocols have utility and who's
00:31:11
building some element of infrastructure
00:31:13
that replaces
00:31:15
a traditional business
00:31:16
so as long as you can kind of build
00:31:18
those things up biology for example had
00:31:21
a bunch of tweets this weekend where he
00:31:22
was like you know i he has this idea for
00:31:25
a mirror table what is that that
00:31:26
replaces you know cap table management
00:31:29
right now why is that important well it
00:31:31
because it touches all of these really
00:31:33
important
00:31:34
kyc aml investing laws across all these
00:31:38
countries in all of these places
00:31:40
it's just a very simple example of where
00:31:42
the new company that actually builds
00:31:43
that capability of these mirror tables
00:31:46
will do so at virtually no cost and so
00:31:48
it'll have a 50-person team and so
00:31:50
they're not going to have offices all
00:31:52
over the world their cost basis will be
00:31:54
you know an or order or two orders of
00:31:57
magnitude let's face it visa mastercard
00:31:59
became a tax and you can't compete in
00:32:01
decades to
00:32:02
have that power over folks
00:32:04
but i think a firm does break that a
00:32:06
firm breaks it because the people who
00:32:07
are selling then decide you know what
00:32:09
we'll give a little bit of a discount
00:32:11
here to get more people to buy go ahead
00:32:14
they were the classic
00:32:15
network monopoly network effect monopoly
00:32:17
business right like they got the small
00:32:18
businesses they got the credit cards and
00:32:21
by extension the consumers on the
00:32:23
network and ultimately they created
00:32:24
these these absolutely locked in
00:32:26
networks
00:32:27
but as with all networks complacency
00:32:30
kind of
00:32:30
you know drives innovation and this
00:32:32
field innovation that we're seeing is
00:32:34
now starting to figure out ways to not
00:32:36
just crack their way into the network
00:32:37
but to replace them with an entirely
00:32:39
different model last point on this this
00:32:40
is not one where i think this disruption
00:32:42
happens slow
00:32:43
i think it happens swiftly swiftly being
00:32:46
five to ten years no like in a year yeah
00:32:49
chamoth's point is really interesting
00:32:50
because there's
00:32:51
you know there are several billion
00:32:53
people globally who do not have credit
00:32:55
and who are unbanked and so if you think
00:32:58
about where this is more likely to come
00:33:00
from it's more likely to come from an
00:33:01
innovative model
00:33:03
in those markets that then ultimately
00:33:04
finds its way into the developed world
00:33:07
versus you know trying to break apart
00:33:09
visa and mastercard and go get these
00:33:10
small businesses to switch out of them
00:33:12
and so on uh today so it's it's really
00:33:14
interesting okay sax what do you got i
00:33:16
don't know if it's biggest loser but the
00:33:17
thing i'm most worried about is in 2022
00:33:20
the fed is going to stop quantitative
00:33:22
easing or so they have said they are i
00:33:25
guess march will be the last month in
00:33:27
which they do this qe
00:33:29
so starting in april there won't be any
00:33:31
of this liquidity pumped into the system
00:33:33
and so i think the the losers are going
00:33:35
to be any of these asset classes that
00:33:38
are heavily dependent on or have
00:33:40
benefited from all this excess liquidity
00:33:41
sloshing through the system
00:33:44
uh it's true that the stock market i
00:33:46
think has already priced in rate
00:33:47
increases and an increase in the
00:33:49
discount rate but i don't know if
00:33:51
markets can fully price in
00:33:53
a reduction in liquidity we don't know
00:33:55
exactly what that's going to look like
00:33:56
and so if liquidity is reduced next year
00:33:59
i think that could
00:34:01
reverberate through a bunch of markets
00:34:02
including you know everything from
00:34:05
sports cards you know collectibles which
00:34:07
have gone through the roof to art to
00:34:11
crypto to
00:34:13
you know maybe
00:34:15
some growth stocks and on and on it goes
00:34:17
so
00:34:18
that's my biggest worry is what happens
00:34:21
when the fed stops qe and the biggest
00:34:24
loser is markets because of uh
00:34:26
quantitative the markets that have to
00:34:28
get off drugs basically okay most
00:34:31
contrarian belief uh saxophone tell us
00:34:33
your muscular and belief since i'm sure
00:34:35
that you workshop this with the
00:34:36
contrarian peter thiel himself
00:34:39
it never ends yeah i mean so i i have a
00:34:42
couple of them here actually you want to
00:34:44
wait and go after everybody else sure
00:34:45
yeah go ahead uh i don't even know if
00:34:47
this is contrarian or just
00:34:48
unconventional but i think that
00:34:52
all of this pressure
00:34:53
in
00:34:55
on the progressive left
00:34:57
will manifest in the chosen one
00:35:00
aoc
00:35:02
deciding to step up and run against
00:35:03
schumer in the primary in june of 2022
00:35:08
and she will lose
00:35:10
wow that's a good prediction i like
00:35:12
jamaat's prediction that's a bold one
00:35:14
yeah that she would lose is
00:35:15
well sorry just to give a little bit of
00:35:17
color in this like let's just assume
00:35:18
that she doesn't
00:35:20
right and and you know that she
00:35:22
shouldn't but let think about where
00:35:23
she's sitting
00:35:25
build back better is over there's an
00:35:27
enormous amount of stuff happening right
00:35:29
now where you know it looks like the
00:35:32
progressive left is really going to be
00:35:33
put under pressure
00:35:35
and it's almost as if if she's really
00:35:37
going to be the standard bearer and
00:35:39
she needs to do something quickly
00:35:41
otherwise she's going to have to wait
00:35:42
until she's 38 you know she's you know
00:35:45
another six years from now because it's
00:35:46
not unlikely that she's gonna run
00:35:47
against kristen you know kirsten
00:35:49
gillibrand so
00:35:51
this is kind of like it may be a moment
00:35:53
where out of her sheer frustration she
00:35:55
steps up
00:35:57
and then we will see whether freeberg is
00:35:59
right or i'm right whether the populism
00:36:00
is really around the left or the
00:36:02
populism is really around the silent
00:36:03
majority
00:36:04
what do you got
00:36:05
sex i think i think that's a very good
00:36:07
prediction um
00:36:09
in a similar way i predict that there
00:36:11
will be a strange new respect for bill
00:36:13
clinton in the democratic party by the
00:36:15
end of next year why because after the
00:36:17
red wave there'll be a recognition that
00:36:19
they need to move towards the center
00:36:21
they need to triangulate and and clinton
00:36:23
was the one who provided the formula for
00:36:25
doing this he dragged the democratic
00:36:27
party back to the center after they were
00:36:28
losing elections and the other piece of
00:36:30
this is going to be that
00:36:33
it's already the case in polling that
00:36:35
hispanics and asian americans now are
00:36:38
swing voters and i think you're going to
00:36:40
see in november 2022 that they go for
00:36:43
republicans of big numbers and so the
00:36:45
idea
00:36:46
that the democratic party can just coast
00:36:48
to
00:36:48
election based on demographics i think
00:36:51
that theory
00:36:52
is going to be imperiled yeah and so and
00:36:55
so they're going to be looking to
00:36:56
clinton and maybe not so much obama as
00:36:59
the
00:37:00
as sort of the predicate they should be
00:37:02
you know aspiring to in the future i
00:37:03
think what's important about that is
00:37:04
those groups of people
00:37:06
i think are offended by the free money
00:37:08
get something for nothing they're
00:37:10
hard-working immigrant people who have
00:37:12
pride they don't want handouts and then
00:37:13
you have this left white liberal maniac
00:37:16
saying no no you're poor you need
00:37:17
handouts you don't you shouldn't work
00:37:19
you need handouts you're you know uh and
00:37:21
i just think they don't buy it and
00:37:23
that's why i think they're gonna go to
00:37:24
the republicans because republicans are
00:37:25
hardworking and freedom-loving and what
00:37:27
was clinton's big tagline in his
00:37:29
campaign he he said that he supports
00:37:31
people who work hard and play by the
00:37:33
rules that was that so crazy that's the
00:37:36
message the democrats got to refine
00:37:37
right now they seem to be on the side of
00:37:39
basically
00:37:40
drug addicts i mean you know people who
00:37:42
junkies are contributing nothing and
00:37:44
pitching tents in the middle of public
00:37:46
spaces and you know participating in
00:37:48
open air drug markets yeah what do you
00:37:50
got free and sore losers don't forget
00:37:51
sir losers yeah
00:37:53
and hysterical free burgers and
00:37:54
hysterical people i mean being
00:37:56
hysterical just never good luck if
00:37:58
you'll bear with me i have
00:38:00
i have three but um
00:38:02
uh i couldn't really pick so the first
00:38:04
one is i think and i shared this on the
00:38:05
pod the other day i think we'll see the
00:38:07
start of um
00:38:09
great global conflict
00:38:12
we we often rationalize the series of
00:38:15
events that that catalyze conflict after
00:38:17
the fact
00:38:18
rather than
00:38:20
recognizing that there was emotional
00:38:22
conditioning that allowed it to arise in
00:38:23
the first place i think we're in a state
00:38:26
today
00:38:27
where the conditioning is such that
00:38:29
we're more inclined to engage in
00:38:31
conflict globally than we have been in a
00:38:34
very long time i don't know if it's kind
00:38:35
of the conflict meter or what have you
00:38:38
but you know you could see proxy wars
00:38:41
uh
00:38:42
and proxy conflict that arise sort of
00:38:44
like what we're seeing you know maybe
00:38:45
something in in the ukraine maybe
00:38:47
something related to taiwan but this is
00:38:49
primarily predicated by the fact that
00:38:51
we've got uh kind of this inflationary
00:38:53
environment and the rise of populism
00:38:55
will force
00:38:56
the kind of domestic policymakers and
00:38:59
legislators to say we should do
00:39:01
something that's active and something
00:39:03
that will allow us to unite our nations
00:39:06
to go and get into a conflict somewhere
00:39:08
or more likely to do that than not and
00:39:10
so i would say that the conditioning is
00:39:12
there to see something like that happen
00:39:15
and so
00:39:16
we're not kind of thinking hey next
00:39:17
year's going to be a year of war
00:39:19
and that's why it's contrary and i think
00:39:21
that there may be war
00:39:22
that we're not kind of paying attention
00:39:24
to today or that will surprise us after
00:39:26
the fact the second thing is i'd say
00:39:28
china
00:39:29
may solidify its position next year and
00:39:32
this is going to sound a little crazy as
00:39:34
a leader in climate change mitigation
00:39:37
whereas it's historically been
00:39:39
considered
00:39:40
kind of the primary foe against climate
00:39:42
change and there's a couple of behaviors
00:39:44
we've seen come out of china recently
00:39:46
that i think number one remember china's
00:39:48
a very rational actor they do analysis
00:39:50
they make decisions based on long-term
00:39:52
investments in thinking they recently
00:39:54
announced that they're going to build
00:39:55
150 new nuclear reactors over the next
00:39:57
15 years at a cost of roughly 450
00:39:59
billion dollars that's about 3 billion
00:40:02
per nuclear power plant the us is
00:40:04
currently spending 30 billion dollars
00:40:06
building two power plants in georgia so
00:40:08
the chinese have figured it out they've
00:40:10
also publicly declared that they're
00:40:11
going to be completely carbon neutral
00:40:13
with their economy by the year 2060 and
00:40:15
they're making the investments through
00:40:17
these nuclear power plants to
00:40:18
demonstrate that they're actually on the
00:40:19
road to do that and there are a number
00:40:21
of other infrastructure initiatives that
00:40:23
are meant to help them achieve
00:40:24
significant reductions in
00:40:27
uh in carbon by 2040 so so let me just
00:40:30
point out why this is important because
00:40:31
right now everyone thinks china's the
00:40:33
foe they're causing climate change
00:40:35
they're the biggest problem imagine if
00:40:37
over the next year
00:40:38
some of what they're doing pays off and
00:40:40
everyone says my gosh china is leading
00:40:42
the world in climate change mitigation
00:40:44
their influence socially and politically
00:40:46
will rise and this this gives china a
00:40:49
very strong kind of position you know on
00:40:51
the global stage and with with kind of
00:40:53
people around the world thinking instead
00:40:54
of china being a foe maybe they're the
00:40:56
leader and the u.s is the laggard um and
00:40:59
that creates a
00:41:00
my third is very random which is some
00:41:01
sort of natural
00:41:03
catastrophe we
00:41:05
we never account uh you know all natural
00:41:08
catastrophes are very low probability
00:41:10
but very high severity if you multiply
00:41:12
the probability by the severity you have
00:41:14
what's called the expected loss we
00:41:16
always undervalue the expected loss of
00:41:19
massive catastrophes natural
00:41:20
catastrophes we haven't had one in a
00:41:22
while
00:41:23
uh it's a very low probability bet for
00:41:25
me to say hey maybe we will but if we do
00:41:27
um it's certainly under-appreciated in
00:41:30
markets today and so when these kind of
00:41:31
you know black swan type events occur
00:41:34
did you uh did you watch don't look up
00:41:36
on netflix is that why you're no
00:41:38
what is that it's a new movie about uh
00:41:40
crap don't watch it uh it's it's
00:41:42
polarizing let's leave it out for now
00:41:43
okay um
00:41:46
i'll watch it it's crap my most
00:41:47
contrarian belief is i think this is
00:41:49
contrarian is that american influence
00:41:52
and exceptional exceptionalism is going
00:41:54
to soar
00:41:56
i believe that is contrarian uh i think
00:41:58
we've empowered this next generation as
00:42:00
i talked about earlier millennials gen z
00:42:03
are ready to be independent to build
00:42:05
and i think gen x is going to start
00:42:07
taking over from boomers as is what's
00:42:09
happening in this very podcast here as
00:42:11
we start to hit or reach time years as
00:42:13
executives
00:42:14
um and then all these boomers are
00:42:16
retiring as chamath has pointed out over
00:42:18
and over again and they're going to pass
00:42:19
down their wealth which then creates a
00:42:21
perfect storm of a ton of capital a ton
00:42:23
of energy lots of new ideas a different
00:42:25
perspective when the economy is going to
00:42:27
boom
00:42:28
uh and we will prove once again that
00:42:30
we're the greatest country and economy
00:42:32
in the world jk you're not you're not a
00:42:33
contrarian you're what we call an
00:42:35
optimist yeah okay and then i'll add to
00:42:37
that jkl what are we are we gen x
00:42:39
we're gen x yes and the fighting over
00:42:42
covet abortion guns social justice and
00:42:44
all this stuff is so
00:42:46
exhausting not that these are not
00:42:47
important issues that i think everybody
00:42:49
is going to move to let's just start
00:42:52
respecting and building and solving
00:42:54
problems and i just think american
00:42:55
exceptionalism will be um all that
00:42:58
happens in 2022
00:43:00
i just think that that is my contrarian
00:43:02
belief for 2022 everybody believes it's
00:43:04
a primary race
00:43:06
i think everybody believes it's coming
00:43:07
apart i don't think anything's coming
00:43:09
apart
00:43:09
from the next century in a year i think
00:43:11
it's going to be a great year i think
00:43:13
it's going to be a great year can i give
00:43:14
my second contrarian prediction oh god
00:43:16
here we go
00:43:17
yes okay
00:43:18
it's good
00:43:19
here it is i think the media
00:43:21
the media is going to pull a total 180
00:43:23
on kovid okay so after pumping out
00:43:25
coveted fear porn for two years they're
00:43:28
gonna change their tune next year
00:43:30
um some of the things you're gonna hear
00:43:32
we need to live with covid it can't be
00:43:33
eradicated
00:43:35
they're even gonna say it's it's more
00:43:37
like a cold or flu they're gonna say
00:43:39
that politicians can't be expected to
00:43:41
stop it they're going to memory hole
00:43:43
their support for lockdowns we never
00:43:45
supported that
00:43:46
and why is all of this because
00:43:49
we have an election next year and more
00:43:51
americans have already died from covid
00:43:54
under joe biden than donald trump that's
00:43:56
appreciated memory hold what was your
00:43:58
term yeah you've never heard of the term
00:43:59
memory hole it's what the problem is
00:44:02
got it yeah but did you guys know that
00:44:04
that more americans have already died
00:44:06
from covet under joe biden under donald
00:44:08
trump that is stunning yeah it is
00:44:09
stunning are you sure yeah
00:44:12
100 now his writers triple fact checked
00:44:15
it yeah they did they did no look look
00:44:17
it up um and it's certainly it's going
00:44:19
to be even more true
00:44:20
worse.com
00:44:23
now look i don't blame joe biden for
00:44:26
that sorry wait why is that because
00:44:27
trump had no vaccine and biden has had
00:44:29
vaccines and everything else maybe it's
00:44:31
the consistency of them
00:44:33
we've had a consistent you know one to
00:44:34
two thousand people die a day fourteen
00:44:36
hundred a day so maybe it's just that
00:44:38
consistency in the us yeah i think it's
00:44:40
because of the republican states that
00:44:42
refuse
00:44:43
to do any mitigation
00:44:45
okay let's keep going
00:44:47
look i don't blame biden for that i
00:44:49
don't blame any president united states
00:44:51
nonetheless biden campaigned on the idea
00:44:54
of he's quote unquote shutting down the
00:44:56
virus um he he and the democrats claimed
00:44:59
to that they would be able to eradicate
00:45:01
it that was the entire basis for all
00:45:03
these coveted restrictions now it's it's
00:45:05
the case that it can't be done
00:45:07
everyone's realizing that they're gonna
00:45:09
have to move the goal post a memory
00:45:10
whole ever saying that and so the
00:45:13
democrats desperately need covet to be
00:45:15
over for the 2022 midterms therefore the
00:45:18
media will say it's over well you
00:45:20
started to see it already because the
00:45:22
media is probably scratching their head
00:45:24
they were the ones trying to force these
00:45:25
lockdowns you know basking in the glow
00:45:28
of whatever press release the the
00:45:30
centers for disease control would put
00:45:32
out and all of a sudden the cdc just had
00:45:34
to do a complete 180 and when they used
00:45:37
to force 10-day quarantines
00:45:39
for these positive tests and people with
00:45:41
covet they just backtracked to five and
00:45:43
why was because there's nobody to work
00:45:46
yeah the delta ceo asked for it last
00:45:47
week and now they're i don't know if
00:45:49
that's exactly true the cdc ultimately
00:45:51
really is just in the hands of big
00:45:52
business and so when big business needs
00:45:54
these workers to come back
00:45:55
you know they and it probably pissed off
00:45:57
a lot of unions who would have loved to
00:45:59
have just had a positive test and stay
00:46:00
home forever the teachers unions
00:46:02
particularly here we are so this is a
00:46:04
really tough situation well and look and
00:46:07
to be clear the message that the media
00:46:09
is going to deliver about kovid next
00:46:11
year it'll be the first time i agree
00:46:13
with it but
00:46:15
it's completely dishonest to them to
00:46:16
pretend like they were never in favor of
00:46:18
lockdowns and they completely inflated
00:46:21
the threat and created this whole
00:46:22
hysteria and next year they're gonna
00:46:24
have to back off but also take it
00:46:25
because no politicians
00:46:28
that this new variant is much less
00:46:30
deadly so it would be logical for people
00:46:33
to take a less severe application on it
00:46:34
now hold on jason
00:46:36
we don't know whether there are more
00:46:37
variants to come in the future that
00:46:39
could be much worse
00:46:43
the cdc makes a decision
00:46:45
broadly speaking about everything
00:46:48
they're not making a decision about
00:46:49
omicron they didn't say if you have
00:46:50
omicron because not only if they really
00:46:52
even test for it i'm just talking about
00:46:54
the reason they shortened this is
00:46:56
because they didn't know what they were
00:46:58
doing before
00:46:59
they don't fundamentally know what
00:47:00
they're doing now they're making best
00:47:02
guesses and the problem with these best
00:47:04
guesses is that they're inaccurate and
00:47:06
it forces enormous amounts of waves of
00:47:09
havoc every time they make it you know
00:47:10
what i'm talking about i'm talking about
00:47:11
sax's prediction that the media will
00:47:13
flip
00:47:14
a logical person including everybody on
00:47:16
this call because of omicron taking over
00:47:18
for delta and being a natural blocker it
00:47:20
would be the logical thing to do so in
00:47:22
defense of the media which i'm not apt
00:47:24
to do
00:47:24
it's logical for everybody to take a
00:47:26
different approach right now because
00:47:27
omicron is 40 times more contagious it
00:47:29
blocks delta and it's become the
00:47:31
dominant variant i think right now the
00:47:32
media is confused they're not sure which
00:47:34
way to go so you know there's a high
00:47:36
probability that they tacked towards
00:47:38
what sax is saying but if you read the
00:47:39
new york times article it was through
00:47:41
gritted teeth they presented the fact
00:47:43
that the cdc changed the guy yes if you
00:47:45
read that article it was like pulling
00:47:47
teeth what do you mean when you say the
00:47:49
media can you just define that a little
00:47:51
bit it's everybody about fox news come
00:47:53
on
00:47:53
it's the elite prestige media it's the
00:47:56
new york times the washington post cnn
00:47:58
msnbc on and on and on do you think
00:48:00
there's a bigger audience with the
00:48:01
aggregate of those publications you just
00:48:03
mentioned or the direct to the consumer
00:48:08
publications that are happening on
00:48:09
youtube of course they're being
00:48:10
disaggregated because of their
00:48:12
dishonesty so does it matter yeah of
00:48:14
course it still matters because they
00:48:15
still have a lot of influence they do
00:48:17
and no offense to everybody on youtube
00:48:18
but we haven't gotten yet to the
00:48:21
economic viability where enough people
00:48:23
on youtube can cover the broad spectrum
00:48:24
of things that are important and then
00:48:26
the mechanisms and incentives to amplify
00:48:28
it so for example that's a good point we
00:48:30
still need cnn there was a woman on cnn
00:48:33
nick please post the clip that you we
00:48:35
posted in the group chat
00:48:36
talking about the incidents of suicide
00:48:38
rates and depression in our children and
00:48:41
what happened when they were locked out
00:48:43
of school for two years okay and i am
00:48:44
not going to stop talking about this
00:48:47
because this is the issue of our times
00:48:49
these are our kids well i want to get to
00:48:52
under-reported stories uh as well jan
00:48:56
oh for me i mean my kids hear me rant
00:48:58
about this every day so i may as well
00:49:00
tell you guys it's it's the crushing
00:49:02
impact that our covert policies have had
00:49:04
on young kids and children uh by far you
00:49:07
know the least serious risk for serious
00:49:09
illness uh but i mean even teenagers you
00:49:13
know a healthy teenager has a one in a
00:49:15
million chance of getting in dot and
00:49:17
dying from covid which is way lower than
00:49:20
you know dying in a car wreck on a road
00:49:22
trip but they have suffered and
00:49:24
sacrificed the most especially kids in
00:49:26
underrepresented at-risk communities and
00:49:29
now we have the surgeon general saying
00:49:31
there's a mental health crisis
00:49:33
among our kids
00:49:35
the risk of suicide girl suicide
00:49:36
attempts among girls now up 51
00:49:40
this year
00:49:41
black kids
00:49:42
nearly twice as likely as as white kids
00:49:45
to die by suicide i mean school closures
00:49:48
lockdowns cancellation of sports you
00:49:50
couldn't even go on a playground in the
00:49:52
dc area without cops scurrying
00:49:55
getting shoeing the kids off tremendous
00:49:57
negative impact on kids and it's been an
00:50:00
afterthought
00:50:01
you know it's it's it's hurt their
00:50:03
dreams their future learning loss risk
00:50:06
of abuse their mental health and now
00:50:08
with our knowledge our vaccines
00:50:11
if our policies don't reflect a more
00:50:14
measured and reasonable approach for our
00:50:16
children they will be paying for our
00:50:19
generation's decisions uh the rest of
00:50:21
their lives and that to me is the
00:50:23
greatest under-reported story of the
00:50:25
past year and i don't see it being
00:50:27
talked about anywhere we talked about it
00:50:29
first you know i posted that link about
00:50:31
the decrease in iq points and then we
00:50:34
started to talk about it there slowly
00:50:35
and now it's trickling into the
00:50:36
mainstream media where they're forced to
00:50:38
talk and who's impacted it's not rich
00:50:40
kids it's a common kind it's all of ours
00:50:42
that was a fantastic clip that cnn clip
00:50:44
was fantastic the ones who are the ones
00:50:46
who get hit the hardest they can't do
00:50:48
supplementals
00:50:50
don't don't minimize what this is this
00:50:52
is every child yeah very
00:50:53
disproportionately effective
00:50:56
the data was that it's
00:50:57
disproportionately affecting
00:50:59
minority kids yeah okay and that could
00:51:01
be because of the sociology of the
00:51:02
parents but jason you can also have
00:51:04
rachel's parents okay jay so i'm just
00:51:06
saying parents i'm saying all poor kids
00:51:08
white poor kids who are public schools
00:51:10
poor kids they're getting hit by
00:51:11
minority kids of all kinds but frankly
00:51:13
the point is it's all kids of all kinds
00:51:16
okay so we don't need to sub-segment
00:51:18
this to make this issue go away and seem
00:51:19
smaller than it is we have literally put
00:51:22
tens of millions of children yes at risk
00:51:25
because of our behavior yes i'm agree
00:51:27
with you and i'm not trying to minimize
00:51:29
it or make it a smaller issue your point
00:51:30
is that none of the smaller audiences
00:51:34
um or smaller new media folks on youtube
00:51:37
or their podcasting have enough breadth
00:51:39
to really make an impact by talking
00:51:41
about this topic is that what you're
00:51:42
saying that the mainstream media is
00:51:44
needed to hit the broad base no what i'm
00:51:46
saying is very specific
00:51:48
the people on youtube cover what the
00:51:50
people on youtube want okay the people
00:51:52
on podcasts cover what they want they're
00:51:54
all very narrow their narrow niche okay
00:51:56
yeah there is no set of incentives that
00:51:58
then threads that together
00:52:00
and then amplifies right in the absence
00:52:02
of those two mechanics
00:52:04
right those are software mechanics and
00:52:06
economic mechanics that need to get
00:52:07
built in
00:52:09
what we lose is signal right that in my
00:52:11
opinion right now over the last two
00:52:13
weeks is the single most important
00:52:15
signal and it is nowhere except for this
00:52:17
one clip on cnn and the discussion that
00:52:20
we had two weeks ago because the youtube
00:52:22
i just want to be really clear on this
00:52:23
because
00:52:24
youtube is full of react videos right
00:52:26
and video games which is fine and the
00:52:29
concern is missing yeah
00:52:31
is talking about this issue and actually
00:52:33
holding people accountable and who
00:52:35
should be held accountable in every
00:52:37
single county where it was basically a
00:52:39
board of education that was trying to
00:52:41
shut these kids out
00:52:43
who stood up and who told that story
00:52:45
nobody did and if it was trying to be
00:52:47
told it wasn't amplified correctly
00:52:49
enough and so what happens is after two
00:52:51
years of damage to all of our kids tens
00:52:54
of millions of kids
00:52:56
there's a couple of fissures one fissure
00:52:58
was on this podcast which i'm very proud
00:53:00
of another fissure was this one few
00:53:02
minutes ago
00:53:04
cbs cbs whatever which is sunday show
00:53:06
yeah but my point is these are the
00:53:08
things that really matter and we haven't
00:53:10
figured it out yet what you're saying
00:53:11
and i think it's a really important
00:53:12
point is that as a youtuber as a
00:53:14
podcaster you pick your niche that you
00:53:16
can hit home on and you hit home over
00:53:19
and over every week but no one says i'm
00:53:21
gonna broadly talk about the issues of
00:53:23
our time and make sure no no that's not
00:53:26
true we do we do but it's it's a small
00:53:28
subset but i think the bigger pictures
00:53:31
there's more than a million people a
00:53:32
week that listen to this we've we've far
00:53:34
exceeded msnbc's average viewership
00:53:37
we're probably going to pass you know
00:53:39
most cnbc shows and some cnn shows by
00:53:43
the end of next year so we will do it
00:53:45
but there's not enough there needs to be
00:53:46
more of us we're an opinion show as much
00:53:48
you know we're not a traditional
00:53:50
reporting show right in the sense that
00:53:52
like go out gather data and facts and
00:53:54
present them or do you disagree with
00:53:55
them not that they do that anymore i
00:53:56
disagree with that i disagree i actually
00:53:57
think we do a decent job of filtering
00:53:59
for the truth and the reason we're able
00:54:01
to do that is because of our friendship
00:54:03
we can hold each other accountable and
00:54:05
call out the when we see
00:54:06
because we don't have incentives we
00:54:07
don't have anything to lose right i
00:54:08
don't think there's anyone here but i
00:54:11
want to build on something that sack
00:54:12
said see it is very hard for the media
00:54:14
to hold this dissonance because they're
00:54:16
saying everybody needs to shelter in
00:54:18
place covid is you know this huge thing
00:54:21
they put the death count they put the
00:54:23
case counter up they won't talk about
00:54:24
debts in icu they won't talk about who's
00:54:26
getting coveted because they have an
00:54:28
incentive to get more ratings through
00:54:30
kovid or trump and they took that
00:54:32
and then it's a narrative violation or
00:54:34
it's cognitive dissonance if they say at
00:54:36
the same time everybody needs to shelter
00:54:37
in place this thing is really deadly but
00:54:39
we should send our kids to school so
00:54:41
they couldn't take that position sax and
00:54:43
chamoth they couldn't take the position
00:54:44
that oh well kids could go to school
00:54:46
because that would go against hey
00:54:48
everybody needs to shelter in place and
00:54:49
they picked i think covet is this super
00:54:53
deadly thing everybody has to shelter in
00:54:55
place over children you're giving them
00:54:56
way too much credit i think what
00:54:58
happened was they had a position
00:55:01
to re-aggregate
00:55:03
lost power
00:55:05
and they took it that's real sense they
00:55:07
did not think about the true
00:55:09
consequences and it may not have
00:55:10
happened at any one individual reporter
00:55:12
level but when it ladders up to the
00:55:15
editorial board and the decisions of the
00:55:17
people who run the mass heads of these
00:55:18
organizations they made the decision
00:55:21
that currying and organizing power
00:55:24
was more important than shining a light
00:55:26
to do the right thing
00:55:27
specifically in this case the thing that
00:55:29
aggravates me the most is around our
00:55:30
kids yeah i think they were going for
00:55:32
ratings but anyway we can keep debating
00:55:34
it well one thing we can say for sure is
00:55:36
they created a hysteria whether their
00:55:38
motivation was ratings or a power grab
00:55:41
or political advantage there was
00:55:44
probably all the above but the bottom
00:55:45
line is they wanted to create a hysteria
00:55:48
and they've been pumping covid fear porn
00:55:50
into the population for the last two
00:55:51
years
00:55:53
but my prediction like i said is that it
00:55:55
all flips next year why because there's
00:55:56
an election and the way the media
00:55:58
figures out what it's gonna what its
00:56:00
narrative is gonna be is they start with
00:56:01
the election result they want and then
00:56:03
they reverse engineer the narrative that
00:56:06
they think is going to help achieve that
00:56:07
election result and if it means
00:56:09
contradicting what they said yesterday
00:56:10
they will memory whole what they said
00:56:12
yesterday in order to get on board the
00:56:14
new narrative that is what's gonna
00:56:15
happen
00:56:17
i do think you're right but i think i
00:56:18
just i wanna i don't wanna lose this
00:56:19
threat because this has nothing to do
00:56:21
with covet meaning covet was a symptom
00:56:25
of this but
00:56:27
if you really thought that
00:56:29
the organized mainstream media had the
00:56:31
right to be you know has a purpose to be
00:56:34
on the right side of justice
00:56:36
where were they when when school boards
00:56:37
were stripping out
00:56:39
you know advanced placement programs for
00:56:41
kids or where were they when they were
00:56:43
shutting kids out or where were they
00:56:45
when they were engaged in eight hours
00:56:46
they can't go against whether you know
00:56:49
a male can be on a committee you know
00:56:52
because he's gay but he's not you know
00:56:53
black i mean
00:56:55
these were the issues that stopped our
00:56:57
children
00:56:58
from literally walking into the
00:56:59
classroom every day
00:57:01
well i mean they just those stories were
00:57:03
not told and they didn't happen just in
00:57:06
one place they happened all across the
00:57:08
country and this is where those folks
00:57:10
had a responsibility because they also
00:57:11
probably had kids
00:57:13
and they didn't do a thing about it that
00:57:15
one issue for me really drives me crazy
00:57:17
let me ask a probing question here we
00:57:18
assume we're going to get out of this um
00:57:20
you know pandemic in 2022 knock on wood
00:57:23
no more variants
00:57:24
what is the obligation and technique the
00:57:28
strategy
00:57:29
to solve what we did to these kids and i
00:57:32
just want to put out there we don't have
00:57:32
to answer it now but i think we could
00:57:34
spend an episode that's a very difficult
00:57:36
question jkl that i think you need so
00:57:39
sociologists and psychologists and
00:57:41
educators we also need entrepreneurship
00:57:43
and ideas and we need to have a dialogue
00:57:44
so we can bring them on but if we're
00:57:46
going to spend all this money on
00:57:46
buildback better how about we build back
00:57:48
the 20 loss iq points that these
00:57:50
kids have and then we do something about
00:57:52
the depression and anxiety they have
00:57:53
hallelujah jason we're never going to
00:57:55
get there because the teachers unions
00:57:57
won't even acknowledge that learning
00:57:58
loss exists
00:57:59
the leaders we need to break the
00:58:01
teachers unions period yes oh let me
00:58:02
make a prediction in that regard next
00:58:04
year there is going to be a ballot
00:58:05
initiative in california
00:58:07
to before school choice
00:58:09
and the way it's gonna work
00:58:11
is that i think there's something like
00:58:13
thirteen thousand dollars spent per
00:58:15
pupil in california that's right that's
00:58:17
right there's gonna be there's gonna be
00:58:19
a ballot initiative that says that any
00:58:21
parent who wants to send their kid to an
00:58:23
accredited school can get a voucher for
00:58:26
thirteen thousand dollars from the state
00:58:27
that's just gonna be on the ballot
00:58:28
competition let's go i predict it will
00:58:31
be the big big election in california
00:58:33
and maybe the nation next year and i
00:58:35
think more than 100 million will be
00:58:37
spent on both sides of that thing and i
00:58:39
i can't predict it's going to win i hope
00:58:40
it does this is a topic worth fighting
00:58:42
over this is something important to
00:58:44
fight over yes absolutely it's school
00:58:46
choice because you know what absolutely
00:58:47
these guys pulled the wool over
00:58:49
everybody's eyes they slipped them the
00:58:50
mickey they hoodwinked them you
00:58:53
need choice we know this as
00:58:55
entrepreneurs if there is no competition
00:58:58
things do not get better these school
00:59:00
unions are complacent well let's make a
00:59:02
resolution let's make a new year's
00:59:04
resolution because i think we all agree
00:59:05
on this um i got approached about this
00:59:07
ballot initiative
00:59:09
it's it's going to happen there's going
00:59:10
to be like i said a major ballot
00:59:12
initiative next year for school choice
00:59:14
in
00:59:17
let's get california it
00:59:18
all in summit profits we'll put towards
00:59:21
this yes let's do it let's pull i'm in
00:59:24
i'm in let's put some money behind this
00:59:25
i want to tell you just to more
00:59:27
personalize this issue because i really
00:59:28
think a lot of people listening
00:59:30
struggle with this i entered the
00:59:33
pandemic with rules
00:59:35
i had rules about devices i had rules
00:59:38
about you know how much time they could
00:59:39
be online i had rules around physical
00:59:42
fitness
00:59:43
right i had rules around diet
00:59:46
and it all went out the window and it
00:59:49
became this thing where it was like
00:59:51
feed them the best they can sometimes
00:59:53
they eat lunch with us sometimes they
00:59:55
have to eat lunch by themselves because
00:59:56
i'm stuck on some stupid zoom you know
00:59:59
back to back in these dumb meetings
01:00:00
because these kids aren't at school
01:00:03
their only way to interact with their
01:00:04
friends became video games like
01:00:06
fortnight where they could at least talk
01:00:08
to their friends yeah but then it became
01:00:09
an addiction where they were doing it
01:00:11
for hours and hours yeah and now i'm
01:00:13
trying to and you know they gained
01:00:15
weight because they weren't physically
01:00:16
active
01:00:17
and i am trying to unwind
01:00:20
as is nat as is my ex-wife we're doing
01:00:23
it together as a team it is so
01:00:25
hard absolutely hard
01:00:28
what about all these people who don't
01:00:30
have the access to the resources that i
01:00:32
have to try to unwind this and then what
01:00:34
happens is i send my kids to the school
01:00:36
and oh they may have a headache guess
01:00:38
what they get sent home and then their
01:00:39
brother and sister have to get sent home
01:00:41
too until you can test and be coveted
01:00:43
negative for a day in a row and so
01:00:45
there's yet another day of school loss
01:00:47
totally nuts
01:00:48
and it's like this is supposed to be one
01:00:50
of the best schools in the country it's
01:00:51
not totally and then i think what is
01:00:53
every other school like then if this is
01:00:54
what i if this is what i know my
01:00:56
children have to do i think we should
01:00:57
make this we should have this as a major
01:00:59
theme for 2022 for the pod i think it's
01:01:01
we need to hold educators
01:01:03
and teachers unions accountable
01:01:06
absolutely school boards accountable all
01:01:08
around the country to fix this this is
01:01:10
your responsibility you need to fix it
01:01:12
listen we held police officers
01:01:14
responsible in the last year or two
01:01:15
we've seen this you know policing being
01:01:18
really like a spotlight put on it well
01:01:20
let's put that same spotlight on
01:01:21
teachers and administrators and schools
01:01:24
they'll never do it they'll never do it
01:01:25
without competition you that's the only
01:01:27
way to politicians
01:01:29
hold their feet you know what what i
01:01:30
learned to build on what you said was
01:01:33
i just
01:01:35
decided to get a teacher and obviously i
01:01:37
have the means to do it it's i know most
01:01:39
people don't i certainly didn't have it
01:01:40
growing up we could barely you know
01:01:42
afford to exist
01:01:45
but i think homeschooling is a viable
01:01:47
option so with that 13k i can tell you
01:01:49
five parents um who are in an
01:01:51
underprivileged area can take that five
01:01:54
times their team and take that what is
01:01:56
that 65k
01:01:57
and
01:01:58
put it together and for 65k they can
01:02:01
hire a teacher
01:02:02
and they can do a better job with those
01:02:04
parents and a teacher for those five
01:02:05
kids i guarantee it so let's go to best
01:02:08
performing asset of 2022 what do you got
01:02:10
your mom
01:02:12
this is simple
01:02:14
this would be battery metals uh lithium
01:02:17
nickel cobalt okay graphite put them in
01:02:20
a basket like you can be along these
01:02:22
things and
01:02:23
rapid fire stacks what do you got best
01:02:24
performing apps i just said series a
01:02:26
venture because it's pretty unoriginal
01:02:27
it's what i do i think growth got a
01:02:29
little bit over funded and overheated
01:02:31
and i think the seed stage also there's
01:02:34
like so there were so many new c
01:02:36
investors again it might have been
01:02:38
partially because of excess liquidity so
01:02:40
series a is still the choke point and i
01:02:42
think it's still the best area to invest
01:02:45
in
01:02:46
innovation's not gonna stop there's
01:02:47
gonna be great series a investments next
01:02:48
year i
01:02:50
also picked early stage startups because
01:02:52
uh that's where the magic happens i
01:02:55
picked early stage like right before
01:02:56
series a
01:02:57
i think spacking
01:02:59
direct listings raising money people
01:03:01
coming down to do the series b's all of
01:03:04
that is creating a pull for more
01:03:06
startups and the founders are getting
01:03:08
very sophisticated in terms of
01:03:10
finding product market fit and scaling
01:03:12
globally
01:03:14
you know earlier and that's what's
01:03:16
creating these great big outcomes
01:03:18
whether it's uber or facebook both
01:03:21
figuring out and airbnb how to go global
01:03:23
quickly so my choice for best performing
01:03:25
asset of 2022 is still early stage
01:03:28
startups freeburg what do you got
01:03:30
obviously best performing asset in terms
01:03:32
of a multiples basis you're never going
01:03:33
to beat seed stage investing certainly
01:03:36
um
01:03:36
but uh you know i tried to highlight uh
01:03:39
and continue my uh kind of contrarian
01:03:42
bet that we're to see increased global
01:03:44
conflict next year again driven by you
01:03:46
know incumbents trying to hold on to
01:03:47
political office and increase the
01:03:50
inflation and fueling economic growth
01:03:52
and the american response to china so in
01:03:54
a world of increased global conflict i
01:03:56
think assets that do really well are
01:03:57
energy commodities and energy stocks i
01:03:59
recently
01:04:00
made a big bet on energy stocks uh
01:04:03
defense stocks and it used to be a gold
01:04:06
it could be the case that bitcoin uh you
01:04:08
know sees a a role as being a defensive
01:04:12
uh position in portfolios in a world of
01:04:14
uh of war and conflict so though those
01:04:16
are my kind of macro
01:04:18
themes for for asset most anticipated
01:04:20
trend of 2022 what he got you off a
01:04:23
trend you're anticipating in 2022
01:04:25
peer-to-peer payments um the destruction
01:04:28
of traditional rails uh it will come out
01:04:30
of africa
01:04:31
great sacks what do you got this is
01:04:33
where i had the civil war between
01:04:35
progressives and programmatic liberals
01:04:37
so building on what jamaa said you're
01:04:39
already seeing this in the feud between
01:04:41
london breed and chase a boudin that is
01:04:43
really gonna i think blossom next year
01:04:46
we have not heard the last of that you
01:04:47
saw it in philadelphia where the mayor
01:04:50
michael nutter took on larry krasner i
01:04:52
think you're gonna see it in new york
01:04:54
city between eric adams and these
01:04:56
manhattan elites
01:04:57
um and you also saw it in washington d.c
01:05:00
where the progressives were blaming
01:05:02
mansion for you know the losing the
01:05:04
build back better so this is a civil war
01:05:07
it's going to continue and uh which moth
01:05:09
predicted with aoc versus schumer would
01:05:11
would certainly play into that
01:05:13
so uh it's grab the popcorn it is the
01:05:16
the trend i'm anticipating the most all
01:05:18
right there you go uh do you anticipate
01:05:20
a similar trend with like the alt-right
01:05:22
trumpians and desantis and that kind of
01:05:25
thing breaking up how do you see that
01:05:26
playing out not not yet because um trump
01:05:29
isn't on the ballot in 2022 so i
01:05:31
actually think the republican party is
01:05:32
going to be surprisingly united in 2022
01:05:34
i think where the trouble might come in
01:05:37
is when we have a republican primary in
01:05:39
2023 and especially if trump runs then
01:05:43
you know all hell's going to break loose
01:05:44
so
01:05:45
who is who are the two people who would
01:05:47
be most viable against trump in that
01:05:48
2023 ron desantis and ted cruz nikki
01:05:52
haley
01:05:53
vicki helen that's going to be that's
01:05:55
going to be fireworks freeberg what do
01:05:56
you got anticipated trend my biggest uh
01:05:59
anticipated trend for 2022 is going to
01:06:01
be a gold rush in biotech into
01:06:05
what i think will become the cover story
01:06:07
on magazines throughout the year that
01:06:10
humans have discovered the fountain of
01:06:11
youth
01:06:13
and this will arise from these
01:06:15
investments in what are called yamanaka
01:06:17
factor based cell reprogramming methods
01:06:19
i've talked about this on the pod in the
01:06:20
past a few years ago
01:06:22
scientists identified that four
01:06:25
chemicals could trigger gene expression
01:06:27
in cells and get those cells to
01:06:28
effectively revert to being stem cells
01:06:31
and more recently demonstrated that
01:06:32
using
01:06:34
lower amounts of those chemicals and
01:06:35
other what are called kind of epigenetic
01:06:37
epigenetic factors can trigger partial
01:06:40
cell reprogramming which causes cells in
01:06:42
the body to act youthful
01:06:44
as a result of those discoveries an
01:06:46
absolute gold rush is now underway
01:06:49
um more recently yuri milner jeff bezos
01:06:52
arch and others put a billion dollars to
01:06:54
seed a new company called alto's labs to
01:06:56
pursue therapeutics in this area google
01:06:58
has individually funded a company called
01:07:01
calico led by art levinson the former
01:07:03
founder and ceo of genentech
01:07:06
and uh just recently uh blake byers and
01:07:08
brian armstrong announced their new
01:07:10
company called new limit with a hundred
01:07:11
million dollars their own personal
01:07:12
capital all of these companies are
01:07:15
pursuing the same effort which is um
01:07:18
basically causing cells to be youthful
01:07:21
to regenerate in a youthful way
01:07:23
and as a result you see kind of organs
01:07:25
um and and systems in the body uh act
01:07:28
more healthily and there will be
01:07:30
magazine covers and you know uh 60
01:07:32
minutes arctic stories and all sorts of
01:07:34
stuff will start to happen in 2022
01:07:36
saying oh my gosh as because the amount
01:07:38
of money that's gone in in this year is
01:07:40
going to cause breakthroughs and
01:07:41
discoveries to start to get published
01:07:42
about next year and when that starts to
01:07:44
happen and the media and the pr cycle
01:07:45
start to kick up you'll see this become
01:07:47
the year of yamanaka factor based
01:07:49
reprogramming and everyone's saying it's
01:07:51
gonna be the biggest gold rush
01:07:52
um in biotech since recombinant dna um
01:07:56
was used by genentech in the uh in the
01:07:58
80s and 90s
01:07:59
all right and uh i had uh most
01:08:01
anticipated trend of 2022 being the
01:08:04
incredible investor laws are going to
01:08:07
change and evolve and it might just be
01:08:09
you take a test and you're now
01:08:10
accredited it doesn't matter if you won
01:08:12
the lottery or you make 200 000 a year
01:08:14
and
01:08:15
a legal crypto framework is going to
01:08:17
happen i think at the same time so those
01:08:19
regulations combined are going to
01:08:21
empower really interesting capital
01:08:23
formation uh on a global basis whether
01:08:25
it's running a syndicate with everybody
01:08:27
in the world including
01:08:28
non-accredited investors or dows or
01:08:31
those two things merging
01:08:33
or as biology is talking about you know
01:08:35
a cap table over here that's mirrored on
01:08:38
a blockchain at the same time and people
01:08:39
being able to trade their interest in
01:08:41
chamot's fund or sax's fund or one of my
01:08:43
syndicates
01:08:45
with tokens on the internet and that
01:08:46
could become that's pretty cool a major
01:08:49
unlock
01:08:50
where you know if you were in i don't
01:08:52
have a fund i run a meager family office
01:08:54
well if you were in your earlier funds
01:08:56
and somebody and there was still stuff
01:08:57
trickling to social capital three the
01:08:59
people who have that could sell it back
01:09:01
to you or sell it to each other if they
01:09:02
wanted to get liquidity um and that's
01:09:04
going to be super interesting especially
01:09:06
if it could happen
01:09:07
just globally where some person in china
01:09:09
decides they want to have access to
01:09:12
u.s
01:09:14
funds rlps could just start selling
01:09:17
if it was structured that way most
01:09:19
anticipated film tv series media
01:09:21
yadda yadda for 20 20 22.
01:09:24
what do you got yellowstone season nine
01:09:27
uh sex
01:09:28
so what's the first two episodes it's
01:09:30
really great i mean you forget
01:09:33
what a great actor um
01:09:35
what's his name is uh kevin costner
01:09:37
coster is a great actor yes yellowstone
01:09:40
is great i'll be watching next season
01:09:42
but what i had down here is thor
01:09:44
ragnarok uh the writer director of
01:09:46
td is back if you saw um the last thor
01:09:50
movie ragnarok ragnarok
01:09:53
the new one is called thor love and
01:09:55
thunder yeah and you know thor went from
01:09:58
being i think one of the most boring
01:09:59
marvel characters in the first two
01:10:01
movies to totally being one of the
01:10:02
funniest and yeah you know most
01:10:05
fun in his last movie so i think that
01:10:07
sequel will be really good and then the
01:10:09
other one is they're doing a prequel
01:10:11
show for game of thrones called house of
01:10:13
the dragon i'm gonna have to watch that
01:10:15
and then the probably the the um star
01:10:18
wars show i'm looking forward to most
01:10:20
would be the obi-wan kenobi show with
01:10:22
you and mcgregor so that was anakin
01:10:26
and i had as well the obi-wan show the
01:10:29
boba fett show and the mandalorian shows
01:10:31
all coming back
01:10:32
are going to be absolutely bonkers and
01:10:34
then there's also
01:10:35
this um token uh series that's coming
01:10:38
out the prequel i think that amazon
01:10:41
spending a billion dollars on and i
01:10:43
think that's landing in 2022. uh what do
01:10:45
you got chama it is the all in summit
01:10:48
in may in miami and uh
01:10:51
the the birth of all in media
01:10:55
so i think that we by the end of 2022
01:10:58
we'll have
01:11:00
um
01:11:01
published content written content not
01:11:03
necessarily by us
01:11:05
well but uh other forms of uh media
01:11:08
interaction that get the truth out to a
01:11:11
large swath of humanity
01:11:13
is this moving is this moving beyond
01:11:16
just a couple of besties doing a podcast
01:11:18
during lockdown
01:11:19
what what all right wait so all in media
01:11:22
is that a new acronym
01:11:24
all in media
01:11:26
what are we doing should we buy like a
01:11:27
cable channel and just go 24 hours the
01:11:29
name is the truth media a media okay
01:11:32
there you go i didn't even know this is
01:11:33
news to the rest of us but is uh
01:11:35
building on the media broke okay here we
01:11:36
go who are we gonna hire
01:11:39
tucker
01:11:40
um
01:11:41
there'll be no shortage of folks who
01:11:43
will want to come out of the woodwork to
01:11:45
work with us on this and i think the
01:11:47
goal should just be to make sure we
01:11:50
figure out what the real north star is
01:11:52
so that we never deviate and part of the
01:11:54
biggest things that that we did guys
01:11:56
was not trying to hustle for some few
01:11:59
you know
01:12:00
shekels here or there which was like jkl
01:12:02
wanted to yeah what are they talking
01:12:03
about
01:12:04
we're going to work out we're going to
01:12:05
talk in a minute about the plan for the
01:12:07
summit the purity of not wrapping this
01:12:09
thing with crappy ads and all kinds of
01:12:11
nonsense is we've never lost our way we
01:12:13
don't need some stupid deal for some
01:12:16
crappy media company
01:12:18
we all have independent ways in which we
01:12:20
can monetize our lives and our hard work
01:12:22
and so we should come to this to always
01:12:23
tell the truth
01:12:24
i think that that's a one of the i will
01:12:27
say one of the great innovations that
01:12:28
and decisions that you championed was
01:12:30
not putting ads on it i hear it all the
01:12:32
time for people i mean we're saving you
01:12:34
from yourself jacob it's an interesting
01:12:35
idea where you use advertising basis
01:12:40
that's not driven by advertising dollars
01:12:42
and not driven by greater by trying to
01:12:44
maximize page views and clicks and
01:12:47
visits um then it completely changes the
01:12:50
equation of what's possible i think this
01:12:52
was part of the idea of what publicly
01:12:53
funded media was supposed to be but it
01:12:56
obviously got
01:12:57
you know maybe a little bit too far
01:12:59
afield yeah it was it's just two yeah
01:13:01
just two well then they started adding
01:13:02
ads i don't know if you remember that
01:13:04
they lost some funding and they're like
01:13:05
okay we're gonna go for sponsorships
01:13:06
they're not ads or sponsorships so
01:13:08
you're saying we're the new pbs
01:13:10
no it's something different
01:13:13
we do this without any expectation of
01:13:15
financial reward we do it because we
01:13:16
enjoy it and so what's up for you jkl
01:13:18
you've been no i mean i have other
01:13:20
things that make money thank you very
01:13:21
much
01:13:41
i didn't know we were doing this
01:13:42
category
01:13:49
who what bbc show that nobody watches
01:13:52
are you going to recommend does it
01:13:53
matter i mean come on what show from
01:13:55
finland with subtitles uh i don't know
01:13:58
you know i spent a lot of time watching
01:14:00
um
01:14:01
like esoteric videos and stuff i find on
01:14:03
youtube i really think it's so
01:14:04
interesting it's such a different way of
01:14:06
consuming media just tell us what video
01:14:08
game you're playing anderson is putting
01:14:10
out a porno
01:14:21
all right what video game are you
01:14:22
playing i called uh i called freeberg on
01:14:24
the phone to talk about the ledge when
01:14:26
he was going crazy on the group chat
01:14:27
he's like i can't talk him on a video
01:14:29
game what video games i was actually
01:14:31
playing a video game by annapurna
01:14:33
interactive which is larry ellison's
01:14:34
daughter's
01:14:35
media production company and apparently
01:14:37
i didn't know this they had a video game
01:14:38
arm and the video games are and the game
01:14:41
i was playing was called maquette
01:14:43
and um you kind of you kind of have this
01:14:45
like interesting movie like poetic
01:14:47
experience as you play the game so it's
01:14:49
not really just designed to be
01:14:50
action-packed and i don't know i thought
01:14:52
it was a very interesting new way of um
01:14:54
entertaining oneself okay we can move on
01:14:57
it was highly stimulating she made a
01:15:00
simulation of a biology lab and uh you
01:15:02
actually get different beaker sizes and
01:15:04
you have different sub proteins like you
01:15:05
start you get to buy all of these lab
01:15:08
equipment you want but it means it's
01:15:10
actually easy it's kind of like a
01:15:11
simulation it's like the same speed you
01:15:13
must first mine it
01:15:15
and the way that you mine is by solving
01:15:17
mathematical equations i made a
01:15:18
cruelty-free fish device dish in my
01:15:21
laboratory because of the genocide of
01:15:23
fish
01:15:25
that was a little controversial take
01:15:27
last week i got dms from people
01:15:30
that was a spicy take freebird did you
01:15:32
get any blow back from that spicy take
01:15:33
last week the spiciest of the fruit
01:15:36
i'm actually going to respond to
01:15:37
everyone that sent me a note directly
01:15:40
was it really because i people are like
01:15:41
you're well
01:15:42
well here's the thing the comment i made
01:15:44
that i think really triggered people was
01:15:46
i said that animal agriculture is worse
01:15:48
than human slavery
01:15:50
and maybe i'll just address it now real
01:15:52
quick yeah
01:15:54
you know i think the the point of view
01:15:55
that people took away from that was that
01:15:57
i diminished
01:15:59
you know the pain and the the resonance
01:16:01
uh in today's kind of socio-economic
01:16:04
context of uh human slavery particularly
01:16:07
recently in america
01:16:09
um and that wasn't my intention at all
01:16:11
clearly not your intention yeah what i'm
01:16:13
trying to highlight is you know first of
01:16:15
all human slavery has been around as
01:16:16
long as humans have been around right
01:16:17
for ten thousand years back to ancient
01:16:19
egypt
01:16:20
the enslavement of humans the the
01:16:22
removal of opportunity and freedom
01:16:25
granted to every living being um is is
01:16:28
certainly manifest in the form of human
01:16:30
slavery and we kind of take it as a very
01:16:31
acute pain point what i was highlighting
01:16:33
is every year over a hundred billion
01:16:36
land-based animals are killed and
01:16:38
they're born
01:16:39
and put in
01:16:40
chains and put in jails and then
01:16:43
murdered and eaten by humans
01:16:46
as routine and we don't like lift our
01:16:49
head up and recognize just how serious
01:16:50
and how skilled this this um
01:16:53
you know this behavior is uh the
01:16:54
industrialization of this process uh is
01:16:57
really abhorrent and there's videos you
01:16:59
can watch and i think when you watch
01:17:00
them you'll recognize not delicious yeah
01:17:02
i knew it was coming yeah
01:17:04
don't do it and i know but i i do think
01:17:06
that
01:17:07
you know chama's voice in this is is
01:17:09
really the voice that kept us from ever
01:17:10
becoming an issue because it's not human
01:17:12
we don't kind of pay attention to it
01:17:13
yeah and i'm just trying to highlight
01:17:15
that there is something that is at such
01:17:16
an extraordinary scale that we don't pay
01:17:18
attention to that one day we'll wake up
01:17:20
and we'll be like oh my god how do we
01:17:21
miss that complete agreement with your
01:17:22
friend if you look at
01:17:24
all life being precious and you say the
01:17:27
life of a cow the life of a dog the life
01:17:30
of a human these are all lives the scale
01:17:33
of suffering
01:17:34
is
01:17:35
these animals yeah these animals
01:17:38
experiences to be honest with you these
01:17:39
animals these animals can problem solve
01:17:41
they can feel emotion they can recognize
01:17:44
yeah they can they can recognize things
01:17:45
happening to them and to their their
01:17:47
loved ones and their family members and
01:17:48
i think that in the context of that to
01:17:50
cause pain and suffering on those
01:17:52
animals and on those creatures at the
01:17:53
scale that we do is something that's
01:17:55
just mind-blowing to me i think not
01:17:57
enough and i expect that one day we will
01:17:58
wake up and be like i cannot believe we
01:18:00
allowed our society to do that but i do
01:18:02
think that we need to solve tomas
01:18:03
problem which is how do you make
01:18:05
something that's freaking delicious how
01:18:06
do you make it cheaper hold on a second
01:18:08
it's not a problem like
01:18:09
my perspective is i understand where
01:18:11
you're coming from i respect your point
01:18:12
of view but here's my point of view
01:18:14
which is
01:18:15
we evolved to superior superiority
01:18:19
in an evolutionary process that was not
01:18:21
preordained
01:18:23
okay and we are now in a position where
01:18:25
we are allowed to consume things that we
01:18:27
choose
01:18:28
now
01:18:29
there is also a claim that you could
01:18:31
make that you know what
01:18:33
a tiger or a lion should not be
01:18:34
attacking and killing a gazelle because
01:18:36
you know that's causing suffering to the
01:18:38
gazelle or blah blah at the end of the
01:18:40
day how we choose to go and consume the
01:18:42
things that we need for sustenance is a
01:18:44
choice that we can make and there are
01:18:46
probably better choices we can make over
01:18:47
time
01:18:48
but at the end of the day i think that
01:18:50
this was a reasonable evolution of
01:18:52
humanity and human ingenuity and
01:18:54
intellect and i don't feel guilty about
01:18:56
that
01:18:58
i don't weigh the suffering of animals
01:18:59
the same way i weigh the suffering of
01:19:00
human beings i don't and i would argue
01:19:02
that when we were apes in the jungle and
01:19:04
we didn't have the choice i would
01:19:06
wholeheartedly agree with you but today
01:19:09
we are a people that do have the choice
01:19:11
what choices and it's because we have
01:19:13
the choice to not eat meat and still
01:19:14
survive and still be happy that we can
01:19:17
make a better choice it tastes good like
01:19:18
there's a part of my soul i'll just
01:19:20
that's and i agree and that's why i
01:19:22
think we need to solve that problem and
01:19:24
that's why i believe it's not a problem
01:19:27
if you made an alternative for you that
01:19:29
tasted good and was as affordable as the
01:19:31
alternative which is actually killing an
01:19:33
animal you would choose it and we
01:19:34
haven't given you that solution yet when
01:19:37
i say we i mean call it the techno food
01:19:39
people but there is a tremendous amount
01:19:41
of money going into this area and we
01:19:43
will devise artificially produced meat
01:19:46
that will not be made by killing an
01:19:47
animal but will be made in the lab looks
01:19:49
and tastes identical or a piece of sushi
01:19:51
just give us a year over you'll have a
01:19:53
piece of sushi in three years
01:19:55
you will have
01:19:56
uh you will be able to go taste chicken
01:19:58
next year it'll be very very expensive
01:20:01
okay uh but cell-based meat will be
01:20:03
available
01:20:04
at a commercial scale within the next
01:20:06
five to ten years
01:20:07
our you know steak that's really what
01:20:09
it's about david my commitment to you is
01:20:10
i will do a taste test whenever you say
01:20:13
what you call that you you pick the
01:20:14
place the time totally i will show up
01:20:17
and if it's better i will never eat meat
01:20:19
again okay we're not ready we're not
01:20:20
ready for that that's a that's a great
01:20:22
commitment all right yeah and i i i am
01:20:24
similar in the commitment but in the
01:20:26
meantime
01:20:29
it's not it's distinct but i will say
01:20:31
friedberg if you're going to have a
01:20:32
party
01:20:34
and it's only vegan you need to put that
01:20:37
on the invite because i came thinking
01:20:38
you were going to feed jacob came to my
01:20:39
party there was no meat he was really
01:20:41
upset
01:20:42
he was going around my party being like
01:20:43
what the hell is this there's no meat in
01:20:45
this party what am i not saying can you
01:20:46
make me a hamburger the woman from
01:20:48
wherever my nappa was like i've never
01:20:51
touched meat
01:20:52
incredible ribeye
01:20:54
on new year on christmas eve oh my god
01:20:58
all right everybody for the dictator
01:20:59
himself chamoth paulie hapatio with
01:21:01
great hair
01:21:03
uh touch of gray never looked better and
01:21:05
the sultan of science david friedberg
01:21:07
and
01:21:08
tucker carlson's destiny gop front
01:21:11
runner david sacks super spreading
01:21:14
kovid
01:21:15
super spreading the truth super
01:21:17
spreading the truth david sacks
01:21:20
from an undisclosed bestie uh hideaway
01:21:24
uh which we all know but we won't say
01:21:26
i'm jake al and we'll see you in 2022
01:21:29
it's been a great year bye-bye
01:21:33
we'll let your winners ride
01:21:36
rain man
01:21:36
[Music]
01:21:40
we opened sources to the fans and
01:21:42
they've just gone crazy with it
01:21:46
[Music]
01:22:07
it's like this like sexual tension that
01:22:09
they just need to release
01:22:10
[Music]
01:22:14
your feet
01:22:21
[Music]
01:22:26
i'm going on
01:22:28
[Music]
