00:00:00
so wait a second you guys I saw
00:00:02
that you were at a kotu conference or a
00:00:06
tpg conference or at some banking
00:00:07
conference sax Brad and I were both at
00:00:10
the coaching Summit CO2 kotu is uh and a
00:00:13
large investor is it a hedge fund
00:00:15
private Equity they're a late stage fund
00:00:17
it's being lazy Tron summit's a really
00:00:19
big word it was at a summit or was it
00:00:21
more like a meeting well it's like a
00:00:22
two-day conference
00:00:24
in Santa Barbara oh nice they've done a
00:00:28
number of years in a row now last year
00:00:30
Brad and I went and we met with SBF
00:00:34
never tell you that SPF story no let's
00:00:38
go who's got crazier you or SPF give us
00:00:41
a quick take that hat off for a second
00:00:43
take that Moncler off for a second let's
00:00:45
get it side by side oh my God sax is
00:00:49
using no product
00:00:52
it's not bad it's not that bad you're
00:00:54
starting to look like the emperor like
00:00:55
Senator Palpatine from Star Wars I mean
00:00:58
people are having a field day with this
00:00:59
crazy hair but what was the vibe if you
00:01:01
said there was a Vibe two years ago the
00:01:03
vibe was crypto Mania SPF was the bell
00:01:07
of the ball I suppose he'll be the bell
00:01:09
of the ball when he goes in the uh as
00:01:11
well
00:01:12
I know it looks like he's getting off
00:01:13
he's getting up I thought he was getting
00:01:15
off I guess the fix in is the ivy league
00:01:17
fixes him oh God
00:01:19
I agree can you imagine if he gets off
00:01:22
he's almost as protected as Hunter Biden
00:01:24
here we go okay everybody freeburg's not
00:01:28
here this week insert jokes and
00:01:30
conspiracy theories for the mids there's
00:01:33
going to be about 8 000 messages on a
00:01:35
subreddit about Freeburg missing this
00:01:37
week and sax missing last week I'll let
00:01:38
you guys all uh read into it but would
00:01:40
you say Brad Brad Garson are back of
00:01:42
course Chef bestie Brad what would you
00:01:44
say the vibe was at this one if it was
00:01:47
SPF lunacy two years ago what was the
00:01:49
five this year
00:01:50
well you know first they put on
00:01:52
incredible events called East Meets West
00:01:54
and it was really about bringing you
00:01:57
know CEOs and Founders from China
00:01:59
to the states and connecting them with
00:02:02
uh Founders and CEOs in the United
00:02:03
States
00:02:05
um listen I think it's somber right
00:02:07
there's a recognition that we've seen
00:02:09
about in the public markets
00:02:11
you know off of this Devastation in 2022
00:02:15
but I think listen they gave a great
00:02:18
tough love speech
00:02:20
discussion with the 1400 unicorns that
00:02:23
are out there and they said do not
00:02:25
expect your unprofitable tech company to
00:02:28
bounce like one of The Magnificent Seven
00:02:30
right those are highly profitable
00:02:32
companies traded 1920 times earnings and
00:02:35
if you are burning cash today there you
00:02:38
can't come back to the well
00:02:40
so you need to either figure out how to
00:02:42
get profitable figure out how to get fit
00:02:45
or you need to sell your business
00:02:48
because you know the there's not an
00:02:50
endless stream of money so I thought it
00:02:52
was a sober view you know Larry Summers
00:02:54
was there and I think a lot of the
00:02:57
people who call 22 right were looking
00:02:59
for a hard Landing in q1 of this year
00:03:01
probably including
00:03:04
you know Larry was probably more in that
00:03:06
camp
00:03:07
and I think everybody still views this
00:03:10
distribution of probabilities over the
00:03:11
course the next four quarters and you
00:03:13
know whether it's drucken Miller Stern
00:03:15
lit this morning on CNBC or whether it's
00:03:17
Larry Summers they're all saying well we
00:03:19
could 30 chance of a hard Landing Q4 q1
00:03:21
so I would say it was sober yeah I could
00:03:24
tell it was sober snacks go ahead you
00:03:25
want to say something well I would say
00:03:27
last year it was somber in a different
00:03:29
way because you gotta remember in the
00:03:31
first half of 2022 you had this huge
00:03:33
decline in the markets around growth
00:03:34
stocks because interest rates said
00:03:36
started going up we had the whole regime
00:03:37
change but I don't think Founders had
00:03:39
internalized the way that it applied to
00:03:41
them and then the thing that has
00:03:44
happened over the past year is that the
00:03:47
sales have been hit you know every
00:03:49
software company that I know is
00:03:51
re-forecasting down it's so much hard to
00:03:54
grow customers are consolidating vendors
00:03:56
sharpening their pencils seat expansion
00:03:59
has been replaced with seat contraction
00:04:01
so negotiations are hard right yes
00:04:04
right now to sell software than it was
00:04:07
let's say a year ago you know 2x is now
00:04:10
the new 3x if you can go up 2x in this
00:04:12
environment it's basically it's going
00:04:14
through X before it's funny to me that
00:04:16
how much the fed's actions impact
00:04:21
buying Behavior that's the thing that I
00:04:23
understand psychology is distinctly
00:04:25
different yeah yeah the psychology
00:04:26
really is different yeah I mean we knew
00:04:28
that the fed's behavior influenced
00:04:31
valuations and sort of capital markets
00:04:33
but the way that it influences the
00:04:35
business Outlook and and how willing
00:04:37
companies are to spend money and CO2 is
00:04:39
no different I see they hired Billy
00:04:40
McFarland from fire Festival to do the
00:04:42
food
00:04:44
um what is this should be ashamed of
00:04:48
themselves look at this Focaccia some
00:04:51
vegetable soup with the broth drained
00:04:53
out Superstar measures are so wrong look
00:04:57
at this I mean it looks like a dog went
00:04:59
to the bathroom and I opened our lunch
00:05:01
box and we're like uh let's let's go
00:05:03
somewhere else
00:05:04
on a budget wow it looks like a surprise
00:05:08
had someone to put a surprise in our
00:05:15
wow well listen it's good coach LP
00:05:17
should be very happy looking at that
00:05:19
seven dollar
00:05:20
lunch that they put out there I mean
00:05:22
right should we tell the SPF story from
00:05:24
last year's Summit I mean last year we
00:05:26
talked about the maybe Founders hadn't
00:05:28
internalized yet but the market said
00:05:30
corrected but the one founder who was
00:05:31
super bullish and optimistic and talking
00:05:34
about how he was spraying money all over
00:05:37
the place and he was acquiring companies
00:05:39
and who was followed around by minions
00:05:41
and had everyone like a beehive
00:05:44
surrounding him and trying to talk to
00:05:46
him was SPF
00:05:49
and so I remember yeah so I remember
00:05:51
thinking like who's going to be this
00:05:53
year's SPF you know somebody here
00:05:57
with Sam Altman there so basically the
00:06:00
kotu conference went from [ __ ] to
00:06:02
dog [ __ ]
00:06:03
[Laughter]
00:06:07
Brad is like look at Brad it's so
00:06:09
uncomfortable Brad's like I like this
00:06:11
invite exactly I got a good invite
00:06:14
shamoth and I are invited to nothing we
00:06:17
give no shits about code 2 or their
00:06:19
budget they do put on a really good
00:06:21
event incredible firm and I think that
00:06:23
the message they gave to Founders thanks
00:06:25
for the invite this year and last year
00:06:27
was great it was actually really
00:06:28
appropriate whether Founders choose to
00:06:30
listen is a different story
00:06:32
but the message they've been conveying
00:06:33
is similar to the message we've been
00:06:34
conveying for the last year and a half
00:06:36
hey chamoth any more uh jokes we can
00:06:38
make about CO2 since you and I get
00:06:40
invited to nothing
00:06:41
no I mean I'm not making fun of kotu I
00:06:44
was just making fun of the fact that we
00:06:45
went for literally [ __ ] with SPF to
00:06:48
what looks like dog [ __ ]
00:06:50
by the way I bet they would invite you
00:06:53
if you wanted to go I'm pretty sure they
00:06:55
would send 10 invitations if I if I even
00:06:57
feigned a desire to go
00:06:59
but I'm in Milan right now the pod's
00:07:02
very popular there by the way I know you
00:07:05
did a focus group tell everybody can we
00:07:07
play the focus group or was that I think
00:07:09
we could play it well just a fan a fan
00:07:11
came up to me I mean when I say fan this
00:07:13
is like a very high profile person this
00:07:15
woman works at Netflix she's she works
00:07:17
at Netflix and her husband is the
00:07:19
founder of a startup she said she was a
00:07:21
fan of the Pod so I started asking her
00:07:23
questions about it the focus group
00:07:24
because you know we've been having this
00:07:26
debate over the last couple of weeks
00:07:28
about what issues we should be talking
00:07:29
about and so people on the Pod never
00:07:33
want to discuss politics it's not like I
00:07:35
only want to discuss politics I just
00:07:37
don't want to exclude it I think we
00:07:39
should just be talking about whatever
00:07:40
the biggest issues are in the world in
00:07:43
any given week current events yeah I
00:07:45
mean whether it's business markets or
00:07:47
politics and she confirmed that was
00:07:49
basically right don't change it so I I
00:07:51
don't know why we would want to change
00:07:52
the formula for the pot at this point
00:07:54
every week sax there's a group of people
00:07:57
who are like stop talking about politics
00:07:58
and then there's another group of people
00:08:00
and their feedback is why didn't you
00:08:01
talk about Hunter Biden Ukraine Ukraine
00:08:04
Putin China whatever
00:08:06
and so the docket is the docket just to
00:08:09
let the audience know not that
00:08:11
it's like all that big of a deal it
00:08:14
should be fairly obvious everybody has
00:08:15
equal input on the docket so it's not
00:08:17
like anybody uh owns the docket if you
00:08:19
want to talk about something you can
00:08:20
talk about something but some people
00:08:21
want to not talk about politics some
00:08:23
people want to talk about a lot of
00:08:24
politics The Magnificent Seven for those
00:08:26
people who didn't catch the reference is
00:08:28
I think something Cramer's been talking
00:08:30
about on CNBC seven stocks make up the
00:08:34
mo most of the gains this year meta
00:08:36
Tesla Nvidia Amazon alphabet Microsoft
00:08:39
and Apple can I tell you guys my welcome
00:08:41
back to Milan story oh yeah absolutely
00:08:44
so I'm back in Milan for the summer on
00:08:46
this Throne Senator Stefano and if you
00:08:49
could say hi to um stefanoia all my
00:08:52
friends uh Butlers everybody I can tell
00:08:54
you're back in Italy because the buttons
00:08:55
are gone
00:08:56
I'm working for my office here but this
00:08:59
morning I went to Coppola which is my
00:09:01
stylist my hairdresser oh and the thing
00:09:05
is there's like a hierarchy in the
00:09:07
hairdressers and so Roberto this guy
00:09:08
Roberto he's like the sort of top of the
00:09:10
ticket and Nat has first dibs with
00:09:12
Roberto and I have this other guy who's
00:09:14
excellent his name is jokino yes you
00:09:16
guys will see tokino in a few weeks
00:09:17
anyways the best thing about the
00:09:20
haircuts at this place Coppola is you
00:09:22
get a hair fluffer which means that as
00:09:24
jokino Roberto Cuts your hair
00:09:27
a guy comes and he's just like he like
00:09:29
does this and then he like
00:09:31
you're patting your hair in a very he
00:09:35
fluffs your hair he's a very
00:09:37
uncomfortable it's a roughing that
00:09:40
doesn't exist anywhere that will never
00:09:42
get disrupted by Ai
00:09:44
and it's incredible a hair styling the
00:09:48
hair fluffer the hair fluffer gets like
00:09:50
a 50 Euro tip doesn't matter what he
00:09:52
does
00:09:53
wow when sax rolls in you're gonna need
00:09:56
two fluffers with that hair because I
00:09:57
need one on each side I mean the Tufts
00:09:59
are getting crazy sucks tell me if you
00:10:01
want your keynote to cut your hair
00:10:02
because when you come because he will do
00:10:04
it he'll do an incredible job and I'll
00:10:06
ask him to bring the hair fluffer all
00:10:08
right listen I I think we just going
00:10:10
back to the CO2 thing I know we're in a
00:10:11
high interest rate lunch environment the
00:10:14
herp environment is hard right now for
00:10:16
everybody but we did get the feedback
00:10:17
let's play the feedback hey guys I'm at
00:10:21
the coach who Summit and uh just met a
00:10:23
friend who wants to explain the magic of
00:10:26
the Pod because you guys keep wanting to
00:10:28
change things and mess things up so
00:10:31
everyone
00:10:33
um my husband and I were let's listen to
00:10:34
your podcast pretty much religiously and
00:10:36
there is this incredible magic that the
00:10:38
four of you have of the red party the
00:10:40
back and forth it's super informative
00:10:42
but you're all sort of rooting for
00:10:43
characters almost so it's almost like a
00:10:45
scripted show in some way so I have my
00:10:47
favorite character my husband has his
00:10:48
favorite character I want so who's who
00:10:50
because I want you all to stay together
00:10:52
and keep doing the show but it's
00:10:53
fantastic and we we love it
00:10:56
and you work at Netflix right I work at
00:10:58
Netflix back in the day I produce shows
00:11:00
so pick up the shows you're telling
00:11:01
David trying to get that magic you can
00:11:03
put any number of scripts together but
00:11:04
once you get the cast on the floor and
00:11:06
actually start getting you know that
00:11:08
chemistry going that's when the magic
00:11:09
happens and you guys kind of just nailed
00:11:11
it so yeah all right so that's a
00:11:14
professional right there so stop
00:11:15
screwing with the formula stop
00:11:17
protesting
00:11:20
oh
00:11:22
I mean
00:11:23
the camera really does add 10 pounds
00:11:25
doesn't it I take two things away from
00:11:27
this chamoth number one she's much more
00:11:29
charismatic on camera than sax she stole
00:11:32
the show she's delightful and then two
00:11:34
that sweater oh my Lord
00:11:36
fantastic no the sweater is fantastic
00:11:39
the shirt's fantastic I just think they
00:11:41
may not have been I don't think the
00:11:43
intention was to mesh the two together
00:11:44
but too many buttons for future moth no
00:11:48
bro when you have a cream colored
00:11:50
sweater you can't wear a red checkered
00:11:51
shirt it's just not yeah yeah I agree
00:11:54
red striped anyways it's uh yeah I mean
00:11:58
it looks like you're wearing an Italian
00:11:59
tablecloth under there from a pizzeria
00:12:01
combined with like an eight thousand
00:12:03
dollar sweater I agree but the hair I
00:12:06
mean the hair is out of control I think
00:12:07
the hair is fantastic I do don't share
00:12:10
do not cut the hair don't let your Kino
00:12:13
touch your hair bro I'll just get it
00:12:14
fluffed I'll tell them just fluff it
00:12:16
don't just hit it
00:12:19
[Music]
00:12:21
let your winners
00:12:22
[Music]
00:12:28
we open source it to the fans and
00:12:30
they've just gone crazy with them
00:12:32
[Music]
00:12:35
let's talk about the zuckily on cage
00:12:38
match oh yeah oh my God this is I'm a
00:12:41
little worried for my friend here yeah
00:12:44
it looks like Elon is completely up to
00:12:46
date on what kind of shape Zuck is in
00:12:48
Zuck is in tremendous shape he's got
00:12:51
like a dojo at his house he's been
00:12:52
getting training in you know mixed
00:12:55
martial arts from Jiu Jitsu the Gracies
00:12:58
or whoever you know Jitsu he's been
00:13:00
competing in events Zuck is in
00:13:03
tremendous shape and uh no joke here now
00:13:06
elon's a big guy elon's a monster but I
00:13:09
mean elon's not elon's not in this kind
00:13:11
of shape you don't have time to work out
00:13:13
like this I hope you get some sort of
00:13:16
Gracie on your team to train you up for
00:13:18
this thing
00:13:19
also Elon has a neck injury that he got
00:13:22
yeah from that Sumo thing years ago yes
00:13:26
and he's had to have surgeries on it so
00:13:28
it'd really suck if that would get
00:13:29
re-triggered here's the thing though he
00:13:31
did take on a sumo wrestler we were
00:13:33
there for that at his birthday party and
00:13:37
he held his own against the giant sumo
00:13:39
wrestler if Yuan does get on top of and
00:13:42
do the walrus on top of Zuck Zuck has no
00:13:45
chance he will get worse
00:13:47
you're telling me what he should do is
00:13:51
abandon the mission to Mars yes stop
00:13:56
electrifying the world totally and stop
00:13:59
free internet around the world yeah so
00:14:02
he can beat up Zuck I mean if you were
00:14:05
to put that to a boat
00:14:07
speeding up suck as number one
00:14:10
this is the dumbest [ __ ] idea I've
00:14:13
ever heard in my life oh my God I love
00:14:15
the banter between the two of them and
00:14:17
let's just say we can all agree out of
00:14:19
all the companies right there's only one
00:14:22
Contender to Zuck getting fit right
00:14:25
getting that company fit getting himself
00:14:27
fit is Elon yeah 75 80 of the people
00:14:31
gone in product velocity is on fire at
00:14:33
Twitter so this is this would be a cage
00:14:36
match between the two
00:14:38
who have defined this era of getting fit
00:14:41
all right let's get to the docket here
00:14:44
what the [ __ ] are you talking about he's
00:14:46
using that Fitness the guy burned a
00:14:48
quarter trillion dollars and then found
00:14:50
a way to stop it
00:14:52
well there you go that's very different
00:14:55
than firing on all cylinders in three
00:14:57
companies I didn't say he was firing on
00:14:58
also and by the way I am the only one of
00:15:01
anybody I think that knows me both well
00:15:03
maybe socks well it's kind of like you
00:15:05
know if you've got like a faucet running
00:15:07
and it's spilling over the sink and then
00:15:09
you turn it off that doesn't make you a
00:15:11
firefighter
00:15:13
you just make you a plumber
00:15:18
stop spending money on there's a feature
00:15:21
of a bathtub where when you get into it
00:15:23
and the water gushes so violently over
00:15:26
the over the outside of it yeah and then
00:15:28
there's a drain at the top as well as
00:15:29
the bottom and so then eventually it
00:15:31
just stops yes
00:15:33
yeah but tomorrow is a good point which
00:15:36
is look elon's a big guy if he got
00:15:38
training in MMA I'm sure he'd do fine
00:15:41
but we don't want Elon spending two
00:15:43
hours a day for the next six months or
00:15:45
whatever because zuck's been doing MMA I
00:15:47
guess for a while a couple years maybe
00:15:48
years he's into it yeah all right well
00:15:50
listen there's been some updates
00:15:52
this uh War
00:15:55
between Russia and the Ukraine or the
00:15:57
invasion of Ukraine by Russia you wrote
00:16:00
a piece about it in what was it the
00:16:02
Federalist I think this week
00:16:04
titled the truth about Ukraine's falling
00:16:07
failing counter-offensive and the peace
00:16:10
that could have been why don't you give
00:16:12
us an overview of what you wrote and
00:16:14
what your take is on the State of
00:16:15
Affairs right now
00:16:16
well the the thing that's been going on
00:16:18
since around June 4th or June 5th is
00:16:20
this long-awaited Ukrainian
00:16:22
counter-offensive
00:16:24
this has been touted for a long time as
00:16:26
is going to reverse Russian territorial
00:16:28
gains uh Ukraine's gonna use all this
00:16:31
modern Western Equipment these leopard
00:16:33
tanks that have come from Germany and
00:16:36
Bradley's from the United States and a
00:16:38
lot of other NATO or American equipment
00:16:41
and they're going to push Russia out of
00:16:43
their country this has been
00:16:45
told to us since the fall of last year
00:16:48
since that sort of car keys
00:16:50
counter-offensive
00:16:52
produce some Ukrainian territorial gains
00:16:54
you've had former generals like Ben
00:16:56
Hodges and Petraeus say that this
00:17:00
counteroffensive is going to be highly
00:17:01
successful where it stands right now is
00:17:04
that around 18 or 19 days into it it has
00:17:06
produced minimal gains
00:17:09
in fact it's been somewhat of a disaster
00:17:11
it's hard to get
00:17:14
conclusive estimates of personnel and
00:17:17
material losses but I think as many as a
00:17:20
quarter of the tanks and armored
00:17:23
vehicles have already been destroyed and
00:17:26
the casualties may be as high as around
00:17:28
10 000 out of an army that was trained
00:17:31
up for this purpose of around fifty
00:17:32
thousand so so far it has not gone well
00:17:35
the the Ukrainian
00:17:37
Army hasn't even made it to the first
00:17:40
line of defense so what the Russians did
00:17:43
is they created three fortified lines or
00:17:46
belts of defense and then in front of
00:17:49
that is what they call a gray zone or
00:17:51
security zone or crumple Zone which is
00:17:54
an area they can test but it's not
00:17:55
technically a fortified line the
00:17:57
ukrainians are still in that sort of
00:17:59
Gray Zone they are not punching through
00:18:02
they are not even at the first Russian
00:18:04
fortified line to give you some idea of
00:18:06
what's involved here
00:18:07
the Russians have these obstacles
00:18:11
there's basically trenches have been dug
00:18:13
there's ditches that would stop tanks or
00:18:16
sort of force them to go in a certain
00:18:18
direction steer the traffic there's
00:18:20
extensive minefields they've got these
00:18:22
things called Dragon Teeth which are
00:18:24
concrete bollards that stop tanks or
00:18:27
move them in a certain direction then
00:18:29
the Russians have massive amounts of
00:18:31
artillery they've got infantry on the
00:18:33
ground that helps spot the artillery and
00:18:35
if all of that doesn't take out
00:18:37
these Ukrainian tanks they've got these
00:18:40
attack helicopters that come in almost
00:18:43
uncontested because at this point it
00:18:45
doesn't look like the ukrainians have
00:18:46
any air defense and they've also got
00:18:48
fixed-wing aircraft that are capable of
00:18:50
dropping Precision munitions
00:18:53
so it really seems like the Russians
00:18:55
have fixed a lot of the problems that
00:18:57
they had last fall in their army and so
00:19:01
far it seems like this counter offensive
00:19:02
is not going anywhere
00:19:04
we're 16 months into this chamoth and it
00:19:07
clearly fatigue is setting in it's not
00:19:10
commanding the new cycle here in America
00:19:12
and on a percentage basis even
00:19:15
the neocons and Republicans are dropping
00:19:20
their support for this at a pretty
00:19:21
precipitous rate which is predictable
00:19:24
Americans
00:19:25
don't want to be in Forever Wars we all
00:19:27
know that so what's your take on how
00:19:30
this winds up especially in relation to
00:19:32
a our budget and B this upcoming
00:19:36
election which this seems to be will be
00:19:39
a major issue if this isn't resolved by
00:19:41
the time we get into the 24 election
00:19:43
cycle that's part of answering this I
00:19:45
have a question for sax but is it true
00:19:47
that there was a ceasefire like Putin
00:19:49
had a press conference where he showed
00:19:51
the document that he said was was a
00:19:54
ceasefire that then the United States
00:19:56
apparently sent Boris Johnson over to
00:19:58
Russia Ukraine to basically blow up blow
00:20:01
up the agreement yes this is finally
00:20:03
correct this wasn't a ceasefire this was
00:20:05
a peace deal before the war started
00:20:08
correct
00:20:09
there were rounds of negotiation before
00:20:12
the war notably there was a round of
00:20:16
diplomacy between blinken and lavrov in
00:20:18
January the month before the war where
00:20:20
blinken said that we cannot compromise
00:20:22
on NATO's open door policy that that
00:20:24
sort of diplomacy fell apart but then
00:20:26
after the war there was a meeting of the
00:20:29
Russian delegation of Ukrainian
00:20:31
delegation and Istanbul
00:20:33
under the supervision of of erdogan and
00:20:35
turkey naphtali Bennett also had a
00:20:37
similar process in both cases the West
00:20:41
rejected a peace deal allegedly we don't
00:20:44
this is Putin we're talking about right
00:20:46
hold on a second let me come back to the
00:20:48
evidence for it in a second but yeah
00:20:49
what the deal would have provided is
00:20:51
that the Russians would move back to
00:20:53
pre-war lines if the ukrainians would
00:20:56
agree not to become a member of NATO
00:20:59
however the ukrainians could still
00:21:01
receive specified security guarantees
00:21:04
from the West that was the deal now well
00:21:08
we have now multiple data points you've
00:21:10
got naftali Bennett saying that he
00:21:12
thought a deal was along these lines but
00:21:13
it was rejected by the West you also
00:21:16
have now Putin showing the very document
00:21:18
which was signed by the Ukrainian
00:21:21
delegation so this was the definition of
00:21:23
the document right nobody else has this
00:21:24
document it hasn't been released yet I
00:21:26
hope the Russian government releases it
00:21:28
for the purpose of History so we can
00:21:29
inspect it but nobody contested this
00:21:32
document is real remember if he's just
00:21:34
making this up you would think that
00:21:36
erdogan would basically come forward and
00:21:37
say no this is fake there's too many
00:21:39
people who are in that room who'd be
00:21:40
able to say this document is fake no one
00:21:42
has done that so I think there's every
00:21:44
reason to believe this document is real
00:21:45
now it is not a final agreement it
00:21:48
appears to be a preliminary agreement or
00:21:49
an outline but the outline is that
00:21:52
Russia is saying we will move back to
00:21:54
pre-war lines if you agree not become
00:21:56
part of NATO and that deal was rejected
00:21:58
when Boris Johnson influenta Kiev and
00:22:02
basically told the ukrainians we do not
00:22:03
want to make a deal with Putin we want
00:22:05
to pressure Putin and the source for
00:22:07
that is not the Russians the source for
00:22:10
that is a Ukrainian publication called
00:22:13
Ukrainian Pravda up and they ran an
00:22:18
article in May of 2022 that I can put on
00:22:20
the screen and it is the source for
00:22:22
saying that Boris Johnson came in and
00:22:25
told zielinski we do not want to make a
00:22:27
peace deal we the West are not ready to
00:22:30
make a deal with Putin we want you to
00:22:31
fight Putin or pressure Putin and if you
00:22:34
do we will give you Advanced weapon
00:22:35
systems and that is when the deal fell
00:22:37
apart if you look at the timing of it
00:22:39
yes it is
00:22:41
this has been lightly sourced here so
00:22:43
let's no no no but you have to consider
00:22:45
the source here this is a pro-ukrainian
00:22:47
publication writing in May of 2022. now
00:22:51
the tone of the article and what they
00:22:53
basically say in this article is that
00:22:55
zielinski accepted Boris Johnson's offer
00:22:58
in other words he took the Gamble and at
00:23:00
this point in time you've got to
00:23:01
remember this is two months after the
00:23:03
war started it looked like the
00:23:04
ukrainians were doing well so up was
00:23:06
essentially praising zelinski in this
00:23:08
article for taking the West up on this
00:23:11
deal to pressure Putin rather than make
00:23:13
peace now a year later it looks like
00:23:16
this gamble was a disaster yeah and so
00:23:19
that is the real conclusion here a deal
00:23:21
was available but the West chose not to
00:23:24
take it by the way Fiona Hill who is a
00:23:27
Russia Hawk and you could almost put her
00:23:31
I'd say neocon adjacent has basically
00:23:34
said that this type of deal was
00:23:35
available the West did not want this
00:23:38
deal I think Jason may be to give you an
00:23:40
answer my thought is that this week was
00:23:42
a very bad week
00:23:43
for establishment politics and
00:23:46
institutions
00:23:47
because on the one hand if you take the
00:23:49
Russia incident and the Ukraine war what
00:23:51
you saw was that there were ample
00:23:54
numbers of off-ramps that we chose
00:23:57
frankly to not take so that we could
00:23:59
engage our enemy in some long drawn-out
00:24:02
war on the hopes that it just depletes
00:24:04
their resources
00:24:07
that's
00:24:09
kind of rolling the dice I think in a
00:24:11
very dangerous way I think this week we
00:24:13
also saw some published stuff on kovid
00:24:16
and the covet vaccine which also
00:24:18
debunked
00:24:19
a lot of widely held truths and it
00:24:21
turned out that folks that may have been
00:24:23
conspiracy theorists quote unquote were
00:24:25
right there as well
00:24:27
so I think it's just an uncomfortable
00:24:30
set of facts that again just reinforce
00:24:32
that if you're not really thinking for
00:24:33
yourself you're not going to see the
00:24:35
totality of what's actually going on I
00:24:36
think with respect to Russia Ukraine
00:24:39
everybody has moved on
00:24:42
and so sadly the only people that are
00:24:45
left over are the people that have to
00:24:48
fight the war who are so separated from
00:24:50
their families there's the people that
00:24:52
are dying there was an article I think
00:24:54
today they recruit prisoners right so
00:24:56
obviously some of the prisoners of
00:24:57
Russia uses are still pretty crazy that
00:25:00
person went on some Rampage inside of a
00:25:02
train
00:25:03
killed a couple people stabbed some
00:25:05
other people there was just pictures of
00:25:07
blood everywhere I mean this is just a
00:25:08
horrible situation
00:25:11
and it's still not clear to me why
00:25:14
we didn't take the offering if in fact
00:25:16
it's real so I just want to keep putting
00:25:18
that disclaimer out there because Putin
00:25:20
flashing her back and it doesn't make
00:25:22
all this true uh it doesn't mean it's
00:25:23
not true
00:25:24
well Jason I would say I am just being
00:25:29
clear here that none of this is
00:25:31
confirmed data points do you need I
00:25:33
would say what are you talking about
00:25:33
enough tolly Bennett confirmed it what
00:25:35
incentives the Israeli former Israeli
00:25:38
leader have to lie about this here's
00:25:40
what I would say Jason I think that
00:25:41
something like that is so profoundly
00:25:45
important that if it were not true I
00:25:49
think it would have been very important
00:25:51
for the powers that be to discredited
00:25:53
almost immediately
00:25:55
so that
00:25:56
they didn't have to look like they were
00:25:59
warmongering unnecessarily can I also up
00:26:02
level and connect to this point about
00:26:04
the establishment because I think
00:26:07
there's been a lot of pushback to even
00:26:10
challenging the status quo even having a
00:26:13
conversation about Ukraine or having a
00:26:16
conversation about coven and I think if
00:26:19
there's one thing this pod represents
00:26:20
the fight going on at Twitter represents
00:26:23
is the need
00:26:25
to have this conversation if we look at
00:26:27
the wars the U.S has engaged in since
00:26:30
September 11th it's estimated three to
00:26:33
four million people
00:26:35
have died in Iraq Pakistan Afghanistan
00:26:40
we spent eight trillion dollars
00:26:43
inflation adjusted we spent four
00:26:46
trillion in World War II
00:26:49
8 trillion represents 25 percent of our
00:26:52
entire national debt and I've yet to
00:26:56
meet a single parent who said to me I
00:26:59
care so much about this Ukraine
00:27:01
situation I would be willing to put my
00:27:03
children In Harm's Way to fight for the
00:27:06
defense of Europe okay so those data
00:27:09
points tell me at a very minimum we need
00:27:12
more of this discussion more of this
00:27:15
debate not less the idea that that we
00:27:17
could be tiptoeing closer and closer to
00:27:19
some land war in Europe unnecessarily
00:27:22
and
00:27:23
I think the bigger issue is and you
00:27:26
can't trust what you're being told and I
00:27:28
think that that's what's very problem
00:27:29
that is a bigger picture and just so
00:27:31
we're clear here I'm not saying I'm on
00:27:33
either side of this I'm just pointing
00:27:35
out that this is all still very thinly
00:27:36
sourced no it's not until the West
00:27:39
confirms any of this and they expect the
00:27:41
West to do you expect the state
00:27:43
department to issue a press release
00:27:44
saying yup we [ __ ] up it's on me my
00:27:47
theories
00:27:49
has been I and I've been very clear on
00:27:52
this podcast my theory has been since
00:27:53
the beginning they want to deplete
00:27:55
Russia and they want to deplete their
00:27:58
army capabilities and have regime change
00:28:01
in Putin I'm not saying I'm for that
00:28:03
just for the people
00:28:06
Putin that was the crude language what
00:28:09
they that is what they plan on doing yes
00:28:11
I think that's what they're doing and I
00:28:12
think Floyd Austin our secretary of
00:28:14
defense said that our purpose was to
00:28:15
weaken Russia so to knock it out
00:28:18
yes but I think they want regime change
00:28:20
yes that's what Boris Johnson went to
00:28:22
Kevin said we want to pressure Putin not
00:28:23
make a deal with him so they courted
00:28:25
this war they they prefer that's been my
00:28:27
Fury they prefer to fight a problem of
00:28:30
choice
00:28:46
that was not my position
00:28:48
I actually agree with you if you're
00:28:50
saying that that was our government's
00:28:52
objective which was to weaken Putin I
00:28:55
agree with you they've chose to fight
00:28:57
an optional proxy war of choice that was
00:29:00
easily avoidable if they just taking
00:29:01
NATO expansion off the table because
00:29:03
they thought it would weaken Putin but
00:29:04
here's the rub on this it has not
00:29:07
weakened Putin and is weak in the United
00:29:09
States and our allies any way you want
00:29:12
to look at this thing look at just the
00:29:13
weapons and Munitions so we are out of
00:29:17
155 millimeter artillery shells we
00:29:20
cannot produce enough this is the crazy
00:29:22
thing we spent 800 billion a year plus
00:29:25
on the Pentagon in our National Defense
00:29:27
we're out of ammo I mean we must be
00:29:29
getting so royally ripped off by the
00:29:31
military industrial complex okay we
00:29:33
cannot produce ammo fast enough that's
00:29:35
why Ukraine's losing this war the
00:29:37
balance of artillery favors Russia
00:29:39
Russia is basically using about 20 000
00:29:42
shells a day the ukrainians are using
00:29:44
somewhere between three and six thousand
00:29:46
we are out of ammo we cannot produce
00:29:48
enough and this um actually dovetails
00:29:51
nicely with another story this week
00:29:53
there is a journalist named Matt
00:29:56
Iglesias is that is how you pronounce
00:29:58
his name exactly yeah Iglesias and he
00:30:01
said I mean he literally said the quiet
00:30:05
part out loud and I'll just quote
00:30:07
because he was criticizing
00:30:10
you and chamoth uh for hosting RFK we'll
00:30:13
get to that in a second
00:30:14
but he basically said this is actually a
00:30:16
really good idea for us basically NATO
00:30:18
Equipment Plus Ukrainian lives are being
00:30:20
traded for Russian equipment and Russian
00:30:22
lives which leaves NATO coming out ahead
00:30:24
that's doubly true because NATO is much
00:30:26
richer than Russia so we win a long-term
00:30:29
game of everyone explode their weapons
00:30:31
as fast as they can make them again
00:30:33
though what makes that really true is
00:30:36
NATO material is killing Russian
00:30:38
soldiers while Russian material is
00:30:39
killing Ukrainian soldiers that's a deal
00:30:40
in our favor I mean that is a cynical
00:30:44
summary of that yeah he wrote that last
00:30:46
year in defense of the war basically
00:30:49
like all the neocons you serve an
00:30:51
establishment approved intellectual they
00:30:53
think he's smart I think he's really
00:30:54
foolish he basically wants to fight the
00:30:56
last Ukrainian here for the sole purpose
00:30:58
of blowing up Russia's stockpiles the
00:31:00
reason this is so dumb is Russia can
00:31:01
always make more those lives aren't
00:31:03
coming back but they can always produce
00:31:05
more artillery more weapons and in fact
00:31:07
the Russian war machine is now ramping
00:31:10
up to full production okay they are
00:31:13
ramping up the number of people in their
00:31:14
army I think it's estimated that by the
00:31:16
end of the year they're gonna have 750
00:31:18
000 men under arms they've ramped up
00:31:20
artillery shells production they're at
00:31:22
something like one and a half million at
00:31:24
the beginning of the war we were only
00:31:25
producing 14 000 artillery shells a
00:31:28
month mostly for training purposes in
00:31:29
the United States we've since ramped
00:31:31
that up to 20 000 but that's still
00:31:33
massively Trails what the Russians can
00:31:35
do and they're trying to hold on they're
00:31:37
trying to ramp it up to 90 000 a month
00:31:38
but that's going to take till 2028
00:31:40
because you know it takes time to build
00:31:42
you got to build up new factories new
00:31:44
production lines you got to issue
00:31:45
contracts to suppliers or vendors it
00:31:49
takes time to do this
00:31:50
ramped up their War Machine and then the
00:31:53
other thing that's happened is that
00:31:55
Russia and China have entered a de facto
00:31:58
Alliance and including Iran so you now
00:32:01
have the cementing of this giant
00:32:04
Alliance in Asia between China Russia
00:32:08
and Iran they're sharing equipment now
00:32:11
together Iran is producing drones for
00:32:13
Russia Russia is now going to be giving
00:32:16
advanced fighter jets to Iran so this
00:32:18
idea that this war has made the West
00:32:20
Stronger is depleting the West over an
00:32:23
objective we didn't need to fight the
00:32:24
war was easily avoidable and we have now
00:32:27
created I think the most fearsome
00:32:29
opponent that America has ever faced we
00:32:32
have never faced a adversary with a
00:32:36
combined manufacturing capacity and raw
00:32:39
materials of China Russia and Iran if we
00:32:42
were to get in a war a new world war
00:32:44
against this sort of new axis we could
00:32:46
lose they actually have more
00:32:49
manufacturing capacity to produce
00:32:50
weapons of war and Munitions and ammo
00:32:53
then the United States does China has
00:32:55
been clear that they're not going to
00:32:56
provide weapons to Russia
00:32:58
and so I'm not sure that that Alliance
00:33:02
is exactly accurate they've given us no
00:33:04
such Assurance all they've said is they
00:33:06
haven't done it yet it's a theoretical
00:33:08
thing that you're talking about here
00:33:09
that could be very serious I think your
00:33:10
point and this is to Brad's point we
00:33:12
should be having a very thoughtful
00:33:13
discussion here because if China did
00:33:15
pick Russia which they haven't and they
00:33:18
went to war it would be
00:33:19
warwicks
00:33:22
well we should talk about the China
00:33:23
relationship actually yeah okay Lincoln
00:33:25
just went to China and this was the
00:33:28
first trip
00:33:29
for an American Secretary of State
00:33:32
since 2018 obviously things have been
00:33:34
strained
00:33:35
with the Spy balloon and the visits to
00:33:39
Taiwan
00:33:40
Lincoln gave some basic goals for this
00:33:43
engagement with China the fentanyl
00:33:46
problem
00:33:47
some detained Americans and protecting
00:33:50
U.S citizens working in China those were
00:33:51
kind of the
00:33:53
easy check boxes
00:33:56
but they wanted to create also an open
00:33:59
line of communication between our
00:34:00
militaries which China wasn't super
00:34:04
stoked on or wouldn't agree to Tony did
00:34:07
a great job yeah okay I think what's
00:34:10
really disappointing is that while
00:34:11
Tony's over there doing this hard work
00:34:13
which must be tough to do because it
00:34:15
must have been a little bit like
00:34:17
dancing on eggshells a little bit right
00:34:19
he had to be it's intense yeah he had to
00:34:21
be very thoughtful very measured
00:34:24
but as far as I could tell he did a
00:34:26
fabulous job now full disclosure he's a
00:34:29
friend of mine so maybe I'm biased but
00:34:31
then over here Biden at some mid-level
00:34:33
fundraiser in California is calling XI a
00:34:36
dictator
00:34:37
how hard must it be for you to try to do
00:34:39
your job when your boss is just like
00:34:42
completely undisciplined like here and
00:34:43
here's the problem with that is that
00:34:46
if the United States actually thought
00:34:48
that g was a dictator do you think that
00:34:50
a mid-level fundraiser that we were all
00:34:52
invited to in Northern California that
00:34:54
none of us said yes to is the place to
00:34:56
announce a foreign policy shift like
00:34:58
that absolutely not so it just means
00:35:00
that again there's just more evidence
00:35:02
about Biden being very undisciplined now
00:35:05
again that could be an age issue it
00:35:07
could be a mental acuity issue we don't
00:35:10
know because we're not given a chance to
00:35:12
really prosecute that problem meanwhile
00:35:15
Tony's there trying to do the best job
00:35:16
he can and the Sands shift underneath
00:35:18
him thank God he was able to get the
00:35:20
trip done before this thing happened is
00:35:22
what I think but that Gap was a very big
00:35:24
gap and a very big problem I think
00:35:27
because whatever Goodwill he built up
00:35:29
was practically flushed on the toilet if
00:35:31
you saw the reaction from the Chinese
00:35:33
which was to be deeply offended
00:35:38
when he went to see NBS and they had to
00:35:41
negotiate a fist bump versus a handshake
00:35:43
like what is all of this either
00:35:45
unplanned or undisciplined theater
00:35:48
why are we engaging in any of this stuff
00:35:50
it doesn't make any sense Joe Biden's
00:35:54
always been known for being a liability
00:35:55
in terms of these statements when he
00:35:57
worked for Obama he was the VP he also
00:36:00
said things you know he shot from the
00:36:02
hip a lot you should not be calling him
00:36:03
a dictator when you're trying to do this
00:36:05
critical work it's a stupid move I think
00:36:07
everybody can agree
00:36:08
you were gonna say something Brad yeah I
00:36:10
was just going to say you know kind of
00:36:13
Market reaction going in so the K web
00:36:15
the Chinese index was up about 20
00:36:17
heading into these series of meetings
00:36:19
now notably blinken was not scheduled
00:36:23
to have a meeting was she
00:36:26
and so what happened is on day one
00:36:29
there's a meeting with the foreign
00:36:30
minister
00:36:31
right and it seems that there was some
00:36:33
positive trend lines coming out of these
00:36:35
first two meetings with the top Diplomat
00:36:37
with foreign minister which led to the
00:36:39
meeting and notably in the meeting he
00:36:41
did say the United States has not
00:36:43
changed his policy on Taiwan we don't
00:36:45
support Taiwanese Independence
00:36:47
now the market reaction post visit was
00:36:50
down 10 percent and I think this is
00:36:52
owing to what shamas said that
00:36:55
people felt like maybe we took a step
00:36:57
forward here that we at least had a
00:36:59
meeting but then it was a another step
00:37:02
back
00:37:03
and so I think where we sit at the
00:37:05
moment is they're probably going to be
00:37:07
some follow-on meetings coming out of
00:37:08
this this was not you know a a path back
00:37:12
to where we were but I think it was a
00:37:14
stabilizing moment
00:37:16
and you know again we were just at the
00:37:18
East Meets West Conference where there
00:37:21
are a lot of Chinese CEOs and Founders
00:37:22
who were there and I think the idea
00:37:25
there was like things are stable like
00:37:27
not getting worse and by the way six
00:37:28
months ago there was a real concern that
00:37:31
things were deteriorating quickly so I
00:37:34
think it's you know you can see
00:37:35
something constructive coming out of
00:37:36
this not getting worse was how I felt
00:37:39
coming out of it and then Biden then
00:37:41
makes it worse is it really it is a I
00:37:43
agree it's just a stupid Gaff let me
00:37:45
tell you about some of the reporting
00:37:46
from the the Chinese side so after these
00:37:49
diplomatic events and and you're right
00:37:50
blinken met with Wang Yi for seven hours
00:37:53
then he got an audience with Xi Jinping
00:37:56
they do these readouts where each side
00:37:58
basically produces a public summary of
00:38:00
the meeting in the Chinese readout they
00:38:03
said that U.S Chinese relationships are
00:38:05
at the lowest point they've ever been
00:38:08
I mean since I guess diplomatic
00:38:11
relations were kind of re-established
00:38:13
under Nixon so that from the Chinese
00:38:15
standpoint they believe that
00:38:16
relationships aren't the worst they've
00:38:18
ever been moreover
00:38:22
the U.S sought to put Ukraine on the
00:38:25
agenda the Chinese response to that was
00:38:27
we are not interested in discussing our
00:38:30
relationship with Russia that is none of
00:38:31
your business
00:38:33
so this idea there's been this neocon
00:38:35
fantasy that somehow China would help us
00:38:38
in this war between Russia and Ukraine
00:38:40
and I've said all along that the last
00:38:43
thing China wants is for neoconso
00:38:45
achieve their objectives with respect to
00:38:48
Russia because then China alone will be
00:38:50
in the gun sites of U.S Hawks so China
00:38:53
will do what it has to do to support and
00:38:56
even prop up Russia if they have to
00:38:58
remember China and and Russia and
00:39:03
specifically she and Putin they are the
00:39:05
two leaders who've met with each other
00:39:07
more often than any other leader and
00:39:08
they've called each other their best
00:39:10
friends or most I think the language
00:39:12
they used was most Muslims well most
00:39:15
bosom friends was what they called it
00:39:16
okay that's a little weird buddies yeah
00:39:19
but yeah awesome bought a great TV show
00:39:20
good point yeah exactly just to give
00:39:22
people exactly what happened
00:39:24
Biden when he was at this campaign
00:39:26
fundraiser in NorCal that uh again yeah
00:39:29
we were probably invited to people on
00:39:30
the show
00:39:31
he was talking about the military
00:39:34
Chinese spy balloon and he said she got
00:39:36
very upset quote that this was a great
00:39:39
embarrassment for dictators when they
00:39:41
don't know what happened and he
00:39:43
continued to say that she didn't know
00:39:45
the balloon had been over the
00:39:46
continental U.S and was off course near
00:39:48
Alaska and this is the kind of thing
00:39:49
where he's basically saying she is
00:39:51
stupid or you know whatever or there's
00:39:54
some level of incompetence over there
00:39:55
it's exactly the wrong message you want
00:39:57
to send clung of a dictator and calling
00:39:59
him stupid and saying he was embarrassed
00:40:01
like why would you provoke that to raise
00:40:03
money or to be a tough guy it makes no
00:40:05
sense I mean it sounds like Trump's
00:40:07
version of foreign they thought the
00:40:09
whole balloon thing was a travesty I
00:40:11
mean I don't know what the truth of it
00:40:13
is but they feel like it was just this
00:40:16
continuous uh drumming up of outrage on
00:40:19
the American side against China and they
00:40:22
wanted to put that behind us in terms of
00:40:25
the relationship I heard Lincoln
00:40:26
interviewed about this jamath I agree
00:40:28
with you I have no complaint with
00:40:30
blinken in terms of how he handled this
00:40:32
meeting
00:40:36
but but not Beijing
00:40:39
but they wanted to put this balloon
00:40:41
business behind them my guess I've
00:40:43
always said that it never made sense to
00:40:46
me that the Chinese would use such a
00:40:48
ham-fisted way of conducting Espionage
00:40:50
to fly a deliberately fly a balloon over
00:40:53
the years it never made sense to me yeah
00:40:56
of course and it became this cost celeb
00:40:59
in the U.S and I think the Chinese at a
00:41:02
minimum wanted to put it behind us and
00:41:04
then Biden reopened the issue like the
00:41:06
submarine tragedy the balloon is like
00:41:08
made for network television because it's
00:41:10
a live event where you can put live
00:41:12
cameras up and you can cover it 24 7.
00:41:15
it's just like Trump
00:41:18
it's for the media it's catnip for them
00:41:20
we have to be very careful now I think
00:41:22
In our relation with China because again
00:41:24
you now have this Asiatic alliance
00:41:26
between China Russia and and Iran it is
00:41:30
the most capable let's say adversary
00:41:32
United States has ever faced remember
00:41:33
that when we Face the Soviet Union their
00:41:35
economy was never bigger than one-third
00:41:37
the US economy the Soviet Bloc versus
00:41:39
the Western Bloc the Chinese economy on
00:41:42
a purchasing power parity basis is
00:41:43
roughly the same size as the U.S and
00:41:46
they've got more manufacturing
00:41:47
capacities if you think about the type
00:41:49
of manufacturing capacity United States
00:41:51
had during World War II that now belongs
00:41:54
to China not the us we have hollowed out
00:41:56
I just don't understand manufacturing
00:41:58
why are foreign policy Brad I'll bring
00:42:00
you into discussion why our foreign
00:42:02
policy isn't being driven by some of the
00:42:05
things that we could do together to
00:42:07
collaborate on like we have global
00:42:08
warming we have you know issues on this
00:42:11
planet that we could collaborate on and
00:42:13
it seems like we're spending no time on
00:42:14
those issues and saber annoying Cuba
00:42:17
another example why can't we set a goal
00:42:21
for the United States to normalize
00:42:22
relations with Cuba and get them on our
00:42:24
site since they are the equivalent of
00:42:26
let's say Ukraine David to America
00:42:28
you've you've brought up that comparison
00:42:30
why don't we make peace with Cuba why
00:42:33
can't we have a peace-based foreign
00:42:35
policy where we're trying to build
00:42:36
Bridges God Cuba and United States could
00:42:39
do amazing things together and we should
00:42:42
be trying to win that relationship
00:42:44
instead of living 50 years in the past
00:42:46
over it I don't I'm not sure there was
00:42:48
legitimate outrage over the past week
00:42:50
because we discovered that China was
00:42:52
planning on they already have an
00:42:54
intelligence Outpost listening Outpost
00:42:56
but also they're thinking about doing
00:42:59
training of troops in Cuba and that
00:43:02
would be a violation Monroe Doctrine and
00:43:04
we should basically get our backs up
00:43:07
over that the Monroe Doctrine states
00:43:09
that no dis and great power can bring
00:43:12
troops weapons or bases into the Western
00:43:14
Hemisphere
00:43:15
the United States spent over 100 years
00:43:18
basically enforcing the Monroe Doctrine
00:43:20
it would greatly diminish U.S security
00:43:22
if we allowed any foreign great power to
00:43:25
have troops in the Western Hemisphere so
00:43:27
we deserve to have our horns out over
00:43:29
that the problem is that we have our
00:43:32
horns out over everything and so we're
00:43:33
not really taken seriously we've cried
00:43:35
wolf so many times I don't think we're
00:43:36
really taken seriously by the Chinese on
00:43:38
this and this should be a teaching
00:43:40
moment to the foreign policy
00:43:41
establishment because this is Russia's
00:43:43
objection
00:43:45
Russia's objection is to having American
00:43:47
troops weapons and bases directly on
00:43:49
their border this is our objection to
00:43:52
what China is seeking to do in Cuba okay
00:43:54
Brad you want to add something to that
00:43:55
or can we move to Chicago but just real
00:43:57
quickly I would say yeah there's a real
00:43:59
appetite in the business community
00:44:01
to be engaged this idea that we're going
00:44:03
to decouple the world never have to deal
00:44:05
with these folks right is just a farce
00:44:07
bite dance bought a billion dollars
00:44:10
worth of Nvidia chips announced this
00:44:12
week right like like the world is
00:44:15
entangled and I think we would be better
00:44:17
off having our political and Business
00:44:19
Leaders in more sync over how to achieve
00:44:24
this long-term safety and prosperity as
00:44:27
opposed to what feels like a disjointed
00:44:29
foreign policy relative to the global
00:44:33
reality around Ai and and what's
00:44:35
happening on the business front
00:44:37
I agree well said yeah and I mean it's
00:44:40
just so obvious why can't we be
00:44:42
collaborating on stuff and we see uh
00:44:43
when you and I made our trip to the UAE
00:44:45
and then we see the Saudis you know
00:44:47
bringing movies back we have certain
00:44:49
regions we're doing a pretty good job of
00:44:50
engaging with engagement
00:44:52
you know reasonable engagement is a good
00:44:54
idea it's because and I think RFK has
00:44:58
said this
00:44:59
we have created a very dangerous
00:45:01
revolving door between our most critical
00:45:04
institutions
00:45:06
and the largest industrial companies in
00:45:08
the United States and that revolving
00:45:10
door creates all kinds of conflicts of
00:45:13
interest and those things get sorted out
00:45:16
via revenue and dollars and profits
00:45:19
incentives and so those incentives will
00:45:22
drive us if it's the military-industrial
00:45:24
complex to go to war
00:45:26
and you're seeing that it'll complicate
00:45:28
our foreign policy so this is why I've
00:45:29
always said the most important thing
00:45:31
that we're doing
00:45:33
is something that the
00:45:34
military-industrial complex cannot stop
00:45:36
which is our energy Independence and
00:45:39
when you have energy Independence and
00:45:41
abundant Costless energy I do think that
00:45:43
the biggest thing you get is this peace
00:45:45
dividend you stop fighting these wars
00:45:46
you become much more rational abroad and
00:45:48
you're like okay I don't need to fight
00:45:49
with all these people because you know
00:45:51
things are so great within our borders
00:45:53
you're so right because we actually have
00:45:55
stopped those Wars and now we've created
00:45:57
two other ones Russia or Ukraine we
00:45:59
can't help Taiwan China what's that we
00:46:02
can't help ourselves and we'll use the
00:46:05
scarcity of Commodities as a boogeyman
00:46:08
to basically incentivize us to go in
00:46:10
these foreign Misadventures and it
00:46:12
really has to stop by the way just two
00:46:14
quick points on that on Taiwan there's
00:46:16
an election next year and it looks like
00:46:18
right now that the pro-china party might
00:46:21
actually take power right now the party
00:46:23
that's in power is more of a pro-western
00:46:25
party and the reason I think is that the
00:46:29
Taiwanese are looking at what's going on
00:46:30
in Ukraine and they're looking at the
00:46:32
corpse of the Ukrainian youth pile up
00:46:35
and they're thinking maybe it's not such
00:46:37
a great idea to be an American proxy
00:46:39
state or in the words of Henry Kissinger
00:46:43
he once quipped that it's dangerous to
00:46:45
be an American enemy but it's absolutely
00:46:46
fatal to be an American friend I think
00:46:48
that this war may be backfiring in terms
00:46:51
of the incentives is creating around
00:46:54
Taiwan remember Biden said that this war
00:46:56
would basically help protect Taiwan by
00:46:58
deterring China it might actually deter
00:47:00
Taiwan from opposing China so we'll have
00:47:03
to see how that plays out all an
00:47:05
able-bodied person in Taiwan a voting
00:47:06
age needs to do
00:47:08
is read the newspaper and understand it
00:47:10
in the last two and a half years we've
00:47:12
essentially started a multi-trillion
00:47:14
dollar program to de-lever ourselves
00:47:15
from all the critical resources that
00:47:17
China and Taiwan gives us and so if
00:47:19
you're a Taiwanese citizen the writing
00:47:21
is unfortunately on the wall which is
00:47:23
that we are giving ourselves the
00:47:24
optionality to not have to do anything
00:47:27
so to your point David if you're a
00:47:28
rational thinking Taiwanese person
00:47:30
unfortunately you're forced to be in a
00:47:32
position where you may have to hedge
00:47:34
your bets
00:47:34
and if the United States can basically
00:47:37
have a chip Supply that comes from
00:47:39
Europe and Mexico now all of a sudden
00:47:42
the criticality of tsmc goes away to win
00:47:45
I publish his tweet
00:47:47
yesterday about Buffett and his trades
00:47:51
in Japan right he bought these five
00:47:53
trading companies and it's just a really
00:47:55
novel carry trade that I've really
00:47:56
fallen in love with just understanding
00:47:57
it but the code out to that is that when
00:48:00
he did this and going long Japan what he
00:48:03
actually also did was he delivered
00:48:05
himself from China he had a long
00:48:06
position in tsmc and he said I'm out and
00:48:09
when they asked him why he sold tsmc he
00:48:12
said this is a very complicated thing
00:48:14
and he basically said that it's not a
00:48:17
bet that's worth making
00:48:19
and I think underneath that if I had to
00:48:21
guess what he's trying to say about
00:48:23
Taiwan indirectly
00:48:24
through his sale of tsmc is
00:48:27
the odds are that we are not going to
00:48:29
get into a land War over there which
00:48:31
means that that asset and its Equity
00:48:34
value is in danger and I don't want to
00:48:37
own it and I think that that's a
00:48:39
very clinical summation of his rational
00:48:42
action so to your point well here's our
00:48:45
blinking people speak with their dogs I
00:48:46
think it's very important you know the
00:48:47
one China policy says Taiwan is part of
00:48:49
China it's not an independent country
00:48:51
but we've had a very ambiguous
00:48:53
intolerance for this ambiguity of Taiwan
00:48:55
acting as its own Nation while saying we
00:48:58
support the one China policy and that
00:49:00
ambiguity
00:49:02
has served us very well in the China
00:49:04
relationship here's a blanket set at the
00:49:06
press conference quote we do not support
00:49:08
Taiwan Independence we remain opposed to
00:49:10
any unilateral changes to the status quo
00:49:12
by either side the status quo he's
00:49:14
referring to here Brad is that they get
00:49:16
to be independent in Taiwan but we don't
00:49:19
say they're independent they are
00:49:21
obviously acting in an independent
00:49:22
manner but it is not our business to
00:49:25
tell the Taiwanese people that they're
00:49:27
independent or not it's their decision
00:49:29
to determine if they're independent or
00:49:32
not any any thoughts on the the trade by
00:49:35
Buffett and
00:49:38
press conference and this ambiguity
00:49:41
I think we want to maintain the
00:49:43
ambiguity I think we're basically saying
00:49:45
to China don't change the status quo at
00:49:49
least for now
00:49:51
right while we rebuild these chip Fabs
00:49:54
in Arizona and other parts of the world
00:49:56
I think most of the wealthy families
00:49:59
I've talked to from Taiwan believe that
00:50:02
five or six years from now the U.S will
00:50:04
no longer be in the position where they
00:50:06
will need Taiwan and Taipei as much as
00:50:09
they do today and they're how many years
00:50:11
do you think it will take to be
00:50:12
independent say it one more time and
00:50:13
explain it well it's not about being
00:50:15
independent it's how much longer will
00:50:18
Taiwan have what they believe to be de
00:50:21
facto protection from the United States
00:50:24
and I was told by one very influential
00:50:27
Taiwanese family that they believe won
00:50:30
the fifth chip Fab comes online in
00:50:33
Arizona which I think is scheduled for
00:50:35
25 or 26. they intended to have most of
00:50:39
their family members out of Taiwan at
00:50:41
that period in time now I think most
00:50:43
Taiwanese don't Envision this being you
00:50:46
know a violent invasion of Taiwan it's
00:50:49
more of a take under in the same way
00:50:51
that Hong Kong was
00:50:53
and so I don't see an American president
00:50:56
frankly going to war nor would I want
00:50:59
them to go to war over Taiwan but I
00:51:02
think it's in all of our interests to
00:51:03
maintain that status quo which is why
00:51:05
taunting the Chinese over the course of
00:51:07
the past few years over Taiwan has
00:51:10
seemed like uh
00:51:12
a policy that's not fit with our goals
00:51:15
right well if you look at skin in the
00:51:17
game the fact that the chips act went
00:51:19
through so quickly the fact that Warren
00:51:21
Buffett as you pointed out schmoth made
00:51:22
his bet and this family that has
00:51:25
obviously you know uh skinned in the
00:51:27
game quite literally are making these
00:51:28
decisions I think we know where this is
00:51:30
headed you can just follow the bets and
00:51:32
if you look at the bets in five years
00:51:34
follow the dollars I mean and also where
00:51:37
people put themselves uh geographically
00:51:39
everybody left Hong Kong when the
00:51:41
turnover happened or before it they went
00:51:43
to Singapore they went to UAE they voted
00:51:45
with their feet and their dollars and
00:51:47
that's obviously what's going to happen
00:51:48
here this is a good pivot because this
00:51:52
criticism
00:51:54
of the Ukraine policy by Matt that sax
00:51:57
pointed out came because
00:51:59
there is a belief on his part and others
00:52:02
that the Pod here all in is putting its
00:52:07
unilateral support behind RFK that is
00:52:09
not true there are two people on the pod
00:52:12
who hosted a fundraiser last week
00:52:14
and here is
00:52:16
what Matt incorrectly said because
00:52:20
I have not put my support behind RFK I
00:52:22
think he's very interesting and I'm glad
00:52:24
he's in the race and neither has
00:52:26
Friedberg but shmoff and sax did host
00:52:29
one and I'll hand it over to them but
00:52:31
here is what Matt said in his sub stack
00:52:33
and even though it's not the subject of
00:52:36
this post I do want to say that I think
00:52:38
it's really Sleazy and gross for the
00:52:41
host of the oil and podcast to be
00:52:42
engaging in this Kennedy boosterism as a
00:52:45
bank shot way of harming Joe Biden's
00:52:48
re-election prospects and I would say in
00:52:50
the recent conversions around Russia
00:52:52
policy Kennedy represents precisely the
00:52:54
strand of progressive thought
00:52:55
that right-of-center business people
00:52:57
have highly have rightly spent the
00:52:59
better part of the century bemoaning his
00:53:01
is an anti-progress anti-technology
00:53:03
ultimately anti-human twirl view that
00:53:06
stands against biomedical progress
00:53:08
against Energy progress and Against
00:53:09
Humanity wants to blow up as many
00:53:11
ukrainians as possible
00:53:13
yeah exactly anti-human listen I don't
00:53:17
even think we should be giving him this
00:53:18
much time well no but I think it is
00:53:20
important because people now have
00:53:21
connected this pod with the rise of RFK
00:53:24
this was the first major
00:53:26
Iglesias is accusing us somehow of do of
00:53:29
of supporting RFK not because of issues
00:53:32
but somehow because it's a bank shot for
00:53:35
Donald Trump which is ridiculous none of
00:53:37
us support Donald Trump he's not even my
00:53:39
preferred candidate in the Republican
00:53:40
Lane well what he said was a bank shot
00:53:42
against Biden just to be clear
00:53:45
you're against I prefer RFK to Biden
00:53:49
it's that simple what's what's wrong
00:53:51
with that he's not even making any
00:53:53
arguments here look we've explained in a
00:53:55
lot of detail and I explained in my
00:53:56
response all the issues where I support
00:53:59
RFK supports
00:54:01
free speech over censorship he supports
00:54:03
civil liberties over the surveillance
00:54:04
State he supports peace instead of War
00:54:06
he supports sealing the southern border
00:54:08
virtually alone among Democrats and
00:54:10
talking sense on that issue and I
00:54:13
believe that he's completely correctly
00:54:15
diagnosed what we're doing in Ukraine so
00:54:18
on the YouTube
00:54:19
on some issues right you disagree with
00:54:21
him on nuclear and you may disagree with
00:54:23
him in his anti-vaxx stance if he is in
00:54:26
fact anti-vaxxed can I just hold on
00:54:27
let's sex finish those I think he was
00:54:28
right about covet lockdowns and I think
00:54:30
he was right about right covet the
00:54:32
so-called covet shot that wasn't even a
00:54:35
vaccine that that should not have been
00:54:36
required but what about those two issues
00:54:38
you obviously disagree with him on some
00:54:39
things do you disagree with him on his
00:54:41
anti-vax stuff and his nuclear stuff
00:54:44
I don't know enough about those issues
00:54:46
to have like a Firm Stance what I would
00:54:48
say is that every candidate represents a
00:54:51
bundle of issues and you support the
00:54:54
ones who are aligned with you on the
00:54:58
issues that are most important to you on
00:55:00
the issues that are most important to me
00:55:02
which are these questions the great
00:55:04
questions of War and Peace
00:55:06
and the questions of free speech and
00:55:07
censorship and even I would say the
00:55:10
question of the economy and who do we
00:55:12
prioritize because he wants to
00:55:14
prioritize the middle class on those big
00:55:17
questions I feel like I'm aligned with
00:55:19
RFK perfect so that's why I support him
00:55:21
let me go to church by the way do you
00:55:23
think Jack Dorsey is is supporting RFK
00:55:26
as a bank shot something or other no
00:55:28
he's supporting it because he agrees
00:55:30
with RFK on these questions of War and
00:55:32
Peace okay and Free Speech correct I'm
00:55:35
just letting everybody be very clear
00:55:37
about their position since this is
00:55:38
becoming the support of RFK by this
00:55:41
podcast or two of the four people in the
00:55:43
podcast is now becoming kind of national
00:55:44
news Iglesias is even making any
00:55:46
arguments here he's just applying
00:55:48
derogatory labels to us what this is
00:55:51
this is a disciplinary tactic or a
00:55:53
shaming tactic yes by these sort of
00:55:56
enforcers for the establishment right
00:55:59
you want to prevent
00:56:01
independent thinkers from stepping out a
00:56:03
lot I agree that's what this is about it
00:56:05
looks like this Outsider went to the
00:56:06
dolphin School in Harvard University so
00:56:08
there you have it yeah you got a two
00:56:10
million dollar education doesn't know
00:56:11
what a basis point is
00:56:13
he's the guy with the basis points right
00:56:16
he graduated Harvard oh good luck with
00:56:20
your sub statue oh my God you are
00:56:23
pro-nuclear you've been very clear about
00:56:25
that although you're a pro Renewables
00:56:27
mostly uh you've been clear about that
00:56:28
on this podcast and many conversations
00:56:30
I've had with you you are also
00:56:31
pro-vaccine but you're anti what
00:56:33
happened with the lockdown so maybe you
00:56:36
could expand upon your support of RFK
00:56:38
why you held a fundraiser firm and what
00:56:41
things you agree with them on and maybe
00:56:42
what things you don't necessarily agree
00:56:44
with them on well first I actually did
00:56:48
what I think a lot of people
00:56:50
haven't done which is just listen to him
00:56:52
just stop talking
00:56:56
zip the old yapper and
00:56:59
there is an enormous amount of long-form
00:57:01
content
00:57:03
where you can really understand
00:57:05
where he stands on some of these topics
00:57:08
he's right about the war on Ukraine we
00:57:12
shouldn't be in
00:57:13
he's right about Free Speech which is we
00:57:17
should have it
00:57:20
he's right that the covet vaccine
00:57:24
was not a vaccine
00:57:26
and really what it's done is actually
00:57:29
discredit the word vaccine unfortunately
00:57:32
in a lot of people's minds
00:57:34
he actually is a person that is
00:57:37
pro-vaccine for all these other vaccines
00:57:39
he himself has vaccinated his children
00:57:41
are vaccinated you would all know this
00:57:43
stuff if you just took two minutes to
00:57:45
just listen to it he is against the
00:57:47
covet vaccine and what I would say is
00:57:50
I'm very sympathetic to that I'm very
00:57:53
sympathetic to the job the FDA had to do
00:57:55
and I think they generally did do a
00:57:57
great job
00:57:59
but we Ram something through and we
00:58:02
allowed it to be labeled a word
00:58:05
that misappropriates what it is
00:58:08
it's not a vaccine and the problem with
00:58:10
that is that it now makes people
00:58:12
mistrust the measle mumps and rubella
00:58:15
vaccine that's crazy you shouldn't
00:58:17
mistrust the MMR vaccine or DTaP but
00:58:21
because those things are lumped in with
00:58:22
the same thing as a coveted vaccine that
00:58:24
is at best 30 or 40 percent efficacious
00:58:26
we have these problems he calls that out
00:58:29
pretty honestly so I like the fact that
00:58:33
he actually speaks in nuance
00:58:36
I like the fact that when I listen to
00:58:38
him
00:58:38
I find that the talking head think
00:58:42
police
00:58:43
are generally lying it confirms what I
00:58:46
believe about them
00:58:47
because he just says things in a very
00:58:50
plain spoken intelligent way
00:58:53
and I think that there are a lot of
00:58:55
folks who don't want to think who want
00:58:57
to be given the simple answer
00:58:59
who want to just reject
00:59:02
what he stands for and just take the
00:59:04
establishment view in the hopes that
00:59:05
they'll get I don't know maybe accepted
00:59:08
by The Establishment The Establishment
00:59:10
just wants to curate power
00:59:12
and I just think that people should be
00:59:14
thinking for themselves if you listen to
00:59:16
the Rogan podcast if you listen to the
00:59:18
Jordan Peterson podcast
00:59:19
there are millions and millions and
00:59:23
millions of links and Page views and
00:59:25
discussions and thoughts and there's
00:59:27
probably thousands of minutes of RFK
00:59:29
explaining what he thinks on basically
00:59:31
any topic you can imagine you can get to
00:59:33
your own conclusion and now I think what
00:59:35
I think you'll find
00:59:37
and this is true for me
00:59:39
is there's 10 of stuff you are just
00:59:42
vehemently supportive of
00:59:45
seventy percent of stuff that's like
00:59:47
quite reasonable and fair
00:59:50
and then there's the rest which is a
00:59:52
spectrum of things I disagree with but
00:59:54
then you're left with a blended expected
00:59:56
value where you're like man this guy is
00:59:58
really better than all the other
01:00:00
Alternatives Brad I'll let you go and
01:00:02
then I'll give my position what I find
01:00:04
most Insidious
01:00:06
about the opposition to this discussion
01:00:09
is people
01:00:10
are upset that you're not swearing an
01:00:13
allegiance to a dogmatism
01:00:15
right the truth of the matter is this
01:00:18
group has hosted dinners for rokana
01:00:21
for Senator manchin
01:00:23
we've hosted dinners for DeSantis right
01:00:27
had I been here I would have put my name
01:00:29
on the dinner for Kennedy because I want
01:00:32
to gather information I'm an analyst I
01:00:35
want to think for myself
01:00:37
how can we spend trillions and put
01:00:40
ourselves into potentially Harm's Way
01:00:43
without having a real conversation in
01:00:46
Congress and on these pods about the
01:00:49
risk of War
01:00:50
why can't we have an authentic
01:00:53
post-mortem about the efficacy of the
01:00:56
covet vaccine without being shamed the
01:00:59
Revolution going on in this country
01:01:00
which is fantastic from my perspective
01:01:02
is that there is no longer a
01:01:05
monopolistic control
01:01:07
over the discussion and that's why this
01:01:10
podcast and this friendship and the
01:01:12
conversation we all had here is
01:01:14
resonating with people because they also
01:01:17
want to hear all the different sides
01:01:19
because most people are capable are way
01:01:22
smarter than the elites on the coast
01:01:24
think
01:01:24
you know I'm from Indiana lots of smart
01:01:27
folks who think for themselves in
01:01:29
Indiana but they're told by Coastal
01:01:31
Elites what to think and they reject
01:01:34
this and that's what you're seeing in
01:01:36
this discussion and so many of these
01:01:37
others it's not about that it's not
01:01:39
about vaccines it's not about a war
01:01:41
it's about their control over how you
01:01:44
think and them wanting to force you to
01:01:46
swear to an Orthodoxy I think that's
01:01:49
really well said yeah yeah that is well
01:01:51
said but the way they try to control
01:01:53
what you think is by labeling candidates
01:01:56
so as to exclude them or make them sound
01:01:59
crazy so jaycal I mean you kind of
01:02:01
introduced RFK as an anti-vaxxer I don't
01:02:05
think that is the correct way to
01:02:07
describe its position or the singular
01:02:10
way that he should be labeled no I don't
01:02:12
I don't believe that I said here are the
01:02:13
things he believes that we agree with
01:02:15
and then I gave the things that the
01:02:17
media is saying you know so I was trying
01:02:19
to present the totality of it and I said
01:02:21
he is obviously in favor of the middle
01:02:23
class and all this stuff so
01:02:27
so I am in support of vibrant long-form
01:02:31
debate like we have here
01:02:33
and I'm in support of anybody who takes
01:02:35
on the establishment because there are
01:02:37
crazy incentives as we talk about here
01:02:39
incentives matter and we are long
01:02:41
overdue for a discussion on vaccines
01:02:44
but it's very important that everybody
01:02:45
understand here that everybody on this
01:02:47
podcast took the coveted vaccine and
01:02:49
everybody here our kids have been just
01:02:51
such a vaccine it's not a vaccine
01:02:53
exactly so they took the projected
01:02:56
experimental mRNA treatment because we
01:02:59
got Hoodwinked by the media into
01:03:00
thinking it would prevent us and from
01:03:02
Ever Getting covet which it did not do I
01:03:04
think two months later I got that
01:03:06
experience vaccines are good and the
01:03:09
covid thing was not very good and it
01:03:13
reduced death in older people and
01:03:15
probably was the only group of people
01:03:16
and we'll we'll know when we do a
01:03:17
postmortem
01:03:19
but do not worry about this mRNA like
01:03:23
flowing through our bodies who knows it
01:03:24
might be a time bomb well and then for
01:03:30
percussions the the hypocrisy of the
01:03:33
media
01:03:34
I think is very important to look at
01:03:36
here because the media is going to be
01:03:37
attacking this podcast over and over
01:03:38
again not that it matters but when we
01:03:41
moved into the top 100 top 50 top 10
01:03:43
that's when the knives came out and I I
01:03:46
would like to remind the media of the
01:03:48
long history of
01:03:50
investigative journalism and debates
01:03:52
what was once a conspiracy theory often
01:03:56
goes on to win a Pulitzer Prize and you
01:03:59
know the the hypocrisy here is crazy
01:04:00
because if you look at some of the
01:04:03
greatest stories an investigative
01:04:04
journalist pieces they started with
01:04:06
these debates rumors Etc Abu ghab
01:04:09
that was the New Yorker
01:04:12
supporting that was signed versus
01:04:14
reporting and he came
01:04:16
right he can't get the time of day for
01:04:18
his report on who really destroyed
01:04:20
Nordstrom the Catholic Church sex
01:04:22
scandal the Boston Globe the mainstream
01:04:25
media does not perform the function that
01:04:26
you're describing anymore they act as
01:04:28
The Bodyguard for the elite for the
01:04:30
establishment they actually have even of
01:04:33
late antonographers for the people in
01:04:35
power not exactly true they have
01:04:37
actually done incredible reporting but
01:04:39
there is a group of them which is Towing
01:04:42
the party line because you have the New
01:04:43
York Times and their expose on the Taxi
01:04:45
commission that won a Pulitzer in 2020.
01:04:50
I know you don't follow pulitzers or
01:04:52
investigative journalism in 2020 Brian
01:04:54
Rosenthal at the New York Times did a
01:04:56
massive expose on the predatory uh New
01:04:58
York City Taxi industry and then at the
01:05:01
same time
01:05:02
there's a few other issues that might be
01:05:05
more important to the nation it was an
01:05:07
example of protectionism and rent
01:05:09
seeking uh the Enron Scandal big tobacco
01:05:12
60 Minutes what about the pretzel
01:05:14
Monopoly in the South part of the Bronx
01:05:16
what about that hot dog vendor on you
01:05:20
guys are uninformed didn't have all of
01:05:22
his licenses up to date I thought there
01:05:24
was a hello botulism
01:05:28
is at the same time
01:05:30
the New York Times CNN were attacking
01:05:33
what Uber was doing
01:05:35
the New York Times won a [ __ ]
01:05:37
Pulitzer for their coverage of predatory
01:05:40
loans by Rich powerful people in New
01:05:42
York City I bet they also did a great
01:05:44
story on the guy selling trinkets
01:05:46
outside Penn Station without a license
01:05:48
for somebody who's a man of the people
01:05:49
like yourself sex you should actually be
01:05:51
more informed okay she should be
01:05:53
reporting on for example what the if
01:05:55
they really if the pulitzers work the
01:05:57
way they should is where patient zero
01:06:01
came from on covid because Michael
01:06:03
Schellenberg just reported this over the
01:06:05
last week and it got picked up by the
01:06:06
Wall Street Journal that patient zero it
01:06:09
turns out was a researcher at the
01:06:11
wu-shan lab
01:06:13
who was performing Gana function
01:06:15
research yeah shocker another conspiracy
01:06:18
theory proven true and we'll wind up
01:06:21
being a Pulitzer he deserves a Pulitzer
01:06:23
he does and the crazy thing about this
01:06:25
quote-unquote conspiracy theory it
01:06:27
turned out to be true is like it brought
01:06:28
together the most odd bedfellows Rand
01:06:32
Paul and Jon Stewart when rank Paul and
01:06:36
Jon Stewart can be in a room and agree
01:06:38
on basically the totality of a topic we
01:06:41
should all just pay attention because
01:06:42
it's not it's not a normal World in
01:06:44
which these two guys would otherwise get
01:06:46
along right
01:06:47
and both of them nailed it from day one
01:06:50
right they have the same name okay now
01:06:53
connect the dots further okay why was
01:06:55
the truth suppressed why did it not come
01:06:58
out because fauci had funded gain a
01:07:01
function research at the Wuhan lab via
01:07:03
Eco Health Alliance so he knew that if
01:07:07
at the beginning of this pandemic it
01:07:09
turned out that he had been partially
01:07:12
responsible for the creation of this
01:07:14
virus that had now turned into a
01:07:16
pandemic around the world his career
01:07:18
would have been over and it's worse
01:07:20
sacks it's even worse than that 46 of
01:07:24
the advertising on TV news comes from
01:07:27
farm and we did not always allow Pharma
01:07:29
spending and this is may not be one to
01:07:32
one it may not be that a specific person
01:07:35
doing a report at CNN or fox or any of
01:07:38
the networks is saying oh I'm going to
01:07:40
lose my job if I write something
01:07:42
critical of Pharma but they're not doing
01:07:44
the investigative pieces on I can tell
01:07:46
you this on the people who have 46
01:07:48
percent of their advertising Revenue
01:07:50
unless it really
01:07:52
you know gets to the final Inning on
01:07:54
something and right and that is
01:07:55
something that we need to question right
01:07:59
the media is funded 46 by Pharma
01:08:03
companies and Pharma companies were
01:08:06
given a pass and if you criticize any of
01:08:09
the Pharma companies
01:08:10
the media is going to come for you and
01:08:12
so listen I'm not a tinfoil but you do
01:08:15
have a little bit listen the media is
01:08:18
funded by big Pharma and its primary
01:08:20
sources are these high-level government
01:08:22
employees who've been there forever who
01:08:24
leak them information that is why the
01:08:26
New York Times was carrying water for
01:08:28
fauci and big Pharma this is the
01:08:31
marriage of state power and corporate
01:08:33
greed that RFK Jr denounces yeah well uh
01:08:38
there you have it folks so and he
01:08:40
believes he could be assassinated by the
01:08:42
CIA no he didn't say it like that he
01:08:44
didn't say it like that he was asked
01:08:46
what what is his strategy on
01:08:49
campaigning and all of that stuff and he
01:08:51
said look I'm going to do as much as
01:08:54
possible the one thing that I'm going to
01:08:55
avoid are like these open-air parades
01:08:59
just because there's just a lot of folks
01:09:01
that we can't control crowd control
01:09:03
yeah okay reasonable yeah I mean the
01:09:06
conversation on Rogan went something
01:09:08
like this Rogan was asking questions
01:09:09
about the Kennedy assassinations and RFK
01:09:13
believes like something like 60 of the
01:09:15
American public believes that Lee Harvey
01:09:18
Oswald did not act alone then Rogan
01:09:20
asked him well do you ever feel afraid
01:09:23
running for office and his answer was
01:09:25
basically no not really it's not
01:09:27
something that I'm preoccupied with but
01:09:30
yeah I'll take precautions does that
01:09:32
mean he thinks the CIA is going to
01:09:33
assassinate him no that's not what he
01:09:35
said but that is how the media reported
01:09:36
it including Fox News that became the
01:09:39
sound bite well the sound bite from this
01:09:41
podcast was that he believes his uncle
01:09:43
was and his father were that the ca was
01:09:46
involved Nations Jason a lot of people I
01:09:49
am not giving my opinion on I'm giving
01:09:51
his opinion on it he said it on this
01:09:52
podcast and the CIA won't release all
01:09:54
the information to this day even though
01:09:56
they've been commanded to do so so you
01:09:58
make your own decision folks according
01:10:00
to Bloomberg there is a ton of action
01:10:02
for startup shares in secondary markets
01:10:04
if you don't know what a secondary
01:10:04
Market is that's when one investor buys
01:10:07
shares in a company that's not yet
01:10:09
public directly from another investors
01:10:11
on the cap table so if stripe which is
01:10:13
not yet public or Reddit
01:10:15
there are shares floating around in
01:10:17
those companies either previous
01:10:18
employees or previous investors one firm
01:10:20
might see an opportunity there and buy
01:10:22
them as this process of bottom me out
01:10:24
has occurred pitchbook reported tiger
01:10:27
Global told secondary investors and
01:10:29
that's a class of people who like to buy
01:10:30
these that they could bid on any
01:10:33
individual private company in its
01:10:34
portfolio they tried to sell a bundle of
01:10:36
these uh shares about 30 startups at a
01:10:39
time but they couldn't find buyers
01:10:41
according to the reports so now they're
01:10:43
allowing people to bid on per company on
01:10:45
a per company basis some of these are
01:10:47
being marked down a third 50 percent
01:10:50
Etc
01:10:51
here's the quote from Bloomberg as of
01:10:54
May 31st shares of startups were trading
01:10:57
at a median discount of 61 compared to
01:10:59
valuations at their latest funding
01:11:00
rounds according to report by Forge
01:11:02
Global Holdings a16 according to the
01:11:05
report is actively buying shares in
01:11:07
secondary Excel Bain Bessemer Kleiner
01:11:09
are also using secretary to grow stakes
01:11:11
in their existing Investments doubling
01:11:13
down
01:11:13
as it were crossover firms by kotu Tiger
01:11:16
grow Global and even Brad's altimeter
01:11:19
are actively searching for deals so Brad
01:11:22
your thoughts on this is this sign of a
01:11:24
bottom
01:11:24
and why are you doing this you're doing
01:11:27
it yeah yeah it is it is true I mean our
01:11:30
job is to look at all these companies
01:11:31
understand their value okay you know I'm
01:11:33
sitting here looking at a list that I
01:11:34
was given this morning 125 companies
01:11:37
secondary you know the Goldman Sachs
01:11:39
unprofitable Tech index in the public
01:11:41
markets uh is down 64 as of this one
01:11:46
unprofitable Publications they put
01:11:48
together a basket they track
01:11:49
unprofitable public companies down 64 P
01:11:52
percent off of its peak as of this
01:11:55
morning so you just quoted the Bloomberg
01:11:57
article saying yeah these unprofitable
01:11:58
tech companies in the private markets
01:12:00
are down about 60 61 percent that smells
01:12:03
right to me
01:12:04
the repricings have to occur these have
01:12:08
to occur right there are 1400 unicorns
01:12:12
at the end of 2022 and a hundred percent
01:12:15
of them will likely do a down run and if
01:12:17
you said what is the average that
01:12:19
they're going to be down it's over 50
01:12:21
percent you saw the repricings out of
01:12:24
some of the best ones like a canva or a
01:12:27
stripe where it was down let's go out 30
01:12:28
40 50 but you know they're going to be
01:12:31
companies like in the public markets
01:12:33
that are down 80 or 90 percent and
01:12:35
disappear all together so we didn't see
01:12:38
the repricings okay and by the way
01:12:41
when we say you know that article quotes
01:12:44
Forge that is what the sellers are
01:12:48
offering to sell shares for
01:12:50
that is not where transactions are
01:12:53
clearing
01:12:54
right so why has an altimeter purchased
01:12:57
any of this because the prices aren't
01:12:58
low enough to induce me to get off the
01:13:01
sidelines to purchase the shares but
01:13:03
we're within kind of you know we're
01:13:05
starting to get in the zone where we can
01:13:08
underwrite to a margin of safety
01:13:11
competitive or better than the public
01:13:12
markets for companies that we think are
01:13:15
great companies now out of those 4 1400
01:13:17
unicorns at the end of 22 they're
01:13:20
probably less than five percent of those
01:13:22
companies I would even want to own
01:13:24
at the right price right so it's a small
01:13:28
subset of companies the price has to get
01:13:30
to this clearing point
01:13:32
but you know I think over the course of
01:13:34
the next uh 18 months we're going to see
01:13:36
an acceleration of market clearing
01:13:39
events as these companies need to raise
01:13:41
Capital as their employees want to get
01:13:43
liquid on shares
01:13:45
and it's it probably see some great
01:13:47
opportunities but most of these things
01:13:49
that get put on sale
01:13:51
should not be purchased right most of
01:13:54
them even you know the first sale price
01:13:56
is never the last sale price the
01:13:58
markdown on the black t-shirts will
01:14:00
continue
01:14:01
tomato sax any thoughts are you buying
01:14:03
in secondary are you looking at this
01:14:05
yeah we'll look at secondary deals it's
01:14:06
not primarily what we do but we're open
01:14:08
to it but Brad if you were to categorize
01:14:10
the 1400 unicorns into one of three
01:14:12
categories what do you think the
01:14:14
percentages would be those three
01:14:16
categories being zombie corns like
01:14:19
unicorn companies that just don't
01:14:22
deserve to exist they don't have a
01:14:23
product Market fit and they're going to
01:14:24
go away
01:14:25
category two would be viable companies
01:14:28
that are just overpriced and are headed
01:14:29
for a Down Round And the number three
01:14:31
would be the ones that are actually
01:14:33
headed for an up round
01:14:35
yeah I would say 30 to 40 percent
01:14:38
are these companies that were valued
01:14:40
over a billion dollars that don't have
01:14:41
product Market fit they'll disappear
01:14:44
zombie companies that will disappear
01:14:46
right and listen walking down just to be
01:14:48
fair let's explain most of these
01:14:51
companies right have less than 200
01:14:54
million a preference preferred shares
01:14:57
that Venture capitalists invest into the
01:15:00
company and many of those companies in
01:15:02
that 30 40 percent there's a team
01:15:04
there's some asset of value they may be
01:15:07
able to you know sell the talent of the
01:15:09
team and recoup David let's call it 30
01:15:12
40 of the pref stack right in that
01:15:15
transaction we're starting to see some
01:15:17
of those occur then I think the Lion's
01:15:20
Share of the companies that are left
01:15:22
let's call it
01:15:23
you know another 40 these are companies
01:15:27
that should never have been marked at
01:15:28
these prices right but they do have a
01:15:31
business and they're going to be marked
01:15:33
down you know 50 to 80 percent
01:15:36
but all of those like none of those have
01:15:38
been able to grow through it then
01:15:40
there's less than 10 percent of the
01:15:41
companies right whose growth has been so
01:15:45
robust through this period that they've
01:15:47
actually grown into or within 10 15 of
01:15:50
those prior prices
01:15:52
and if you do all of that work it puts
01:15:55
us back on trendline right the only
01:15:57
thing unusual here is how far off trend
01:16:00
line we had 1400 unicorns right in 2020
01:16:05
we had I think 145 IPOs in the last two
01:16:09
years we've had four
01:16:11
okay so there's a huge backlog these
01:16:14
companies aren't getting public why
01:16:16
because Public Market buyers like
01:16:18
ourselves we're not willing to pay the
01:16:19
prices that were in the private market
01:16:21
so the first step is to just have these
01:16:23
clearing events and as David you and I
01:16:25
heard silver talk over the course of the
01:16:28
last couple days I think they you know
01:16:30
said to the founders very clearly you
01:16:32
need to sell your businesses or you need
01:16:34
to get profitable there is no middle
01:16:36
ground in other news Ford has been
01:16:38
issued a conditional 9.2 billion dollar
01:16:40
loan from the U.S department of energy
01:16:41
to build out three one two three EV
01:16:45
battery factories specific loan is
01:16:47
coming through the department of
01:16:48
Energy's lpo that's the loan programs
01:16:51
office they've got about 400 billion to
01:16:53
lend out
01:16:54
you might remember this from 2010 when
01:16:57
they gave solyndra
01:16:59
A123 batteries which eventually went
01:17:02
bankrupt and got bought by a Chinese
01:17:03
company I believe and Tesla a 465
01:17:07
million dollar loan Tesla paid it back
01:17:08
the other two didn't anticipated back
01:17:10
with interest [ __ ] Shaw the director
01:17:13
of The Loan program office described The
01:17:15
Lending moves as a way to onshore and
01:17:17
reshore Manufacturing the goal of the
01:17:19
program is not Innovation but to get
01:17:22
more of the supply chain to be
01:17:25
manufactured in the U.S guess
01:17:29
some people are criticizing this just
01:17:31
out of the gate with um why should we be
01:17:34
giving these loans to companies
01:17:36
shouldn't this be the private sector
01:17:37
doing it moth what are your thoughts
01:17:38
here
01:17:39
is this a good idea a great idea a
01:17:42
neutral idea
01:17:43
it's a great idea
01:17:45
explain it's us using our balance sheet
01:17:48
to make sure that we get to energy
01:17:49
Independence so this is actually a
01:17:52
perfect role for government it's
01:17:55
shaping incentives so that capitalism
01:17:57
can do its job what this does for
01:18:00
forward is for it as a partnership with
01:18:02
SK
01:18:03
and so SK has a lot of capability in
01:18:06
Korea but they can bring that know-how
01:18:08
now domestically onshore to the United
01:18:10
States you'll be hiring thousands of
01:18:12
people you'll be building battery
01:18:14
factories Ford needs batteries their
01:18:16
forecast is they'll be selling two and a
01:18:17
half million electric vehicles by 2026
01:18:20
2027. so whatever Ford does you can
01:18:23
expect GM will also do
01:18:25
you can expect all of the other big
01:18:27
companies to do so this is all just
01:18:29
great and at the end of the day
01:18:32
for people to not over this is 9.8
01:18:34
billion I guess it sounds like a lot but
01:18:36
we're probably spending 9.8 billion
01:18:38
dollars a day fighting Wars
01:18:40
so this is a day of just taking a pause
01:18:43
on all these dumb Wars and actually
01:18:45
becoming energy Reliant carbon neutral
01:18:48
fixing the climate
01:18:51
it's great jobs energy Independence and
01:18:55
less dependency on autocratic Nations it
01:18:58
seems like a good idea yeah everything
01:18:59
should be how about instead of thinking
01:19:01
about it in terms of Wars let's think
01:19:03
about it in terms of so if if the the
01:19:06
dod budget is 800 billion dollars okay
01:19:10
per year what is at 2.6 billion a day
01:19:14
2.7 billion a day
01:19:17
okay so we're talking about three days
01:19:20
four days Monday Tuesday Wednesday
01:19:22
Thursday
01:19:26
I agree with jamas about the wars but
01:19:30
this is all money we don't have I mean
01:19:32
we shouldn't be spending the money on
01:19:33
Wars and we shouldn't be spending it I
01:19:35
think on Industrial policy so first of
01:19:38
all one of our friends who's an energy
01:19:39
investor uh we should peep his name but
01:19:42
was telling me that the energy subsidies
01:19:45
that were in the you know misnamed
01:19:47
inflation reduction act it is like the
01:19:50
biggest Bonanza of all time he said that
01:19:53
the energy sector is going crazy now
01:19:56
trying to figure out how to exploit
01:19:58
these incentives and his view is that
01:20:01
although I think it was supposed to cost
01:20:03
about 350 billion dollars he thought
01:20:05
that it would ultimately cost the
01:20:07
government somewhere around a trillion
01:20:09
because the way these subsidies work is
01:20:11
that you just qualify for them and then
01:20:13
you get the subsidy it's not like the
01:20:14
credits run out so if you qualify you
01:20:17
get it so this could end up costing the
01:20:18
government way more than than it was
01:20:20
originally projected and so the question
01:20:22
is what are you going to get for all
01:20:24
this money and in this article on Ford
01:20:26
they were talking about these seven
01:20:28
thousand jobs they're being created at a
01:20:30
cost of 440 000 per job
01:20:34
so it's great that the jobs are being
01:20:36
created but if you look at the
01:20:38
efficiency of that that spend per job
01:20:41
doesn't really make sense I don't
01:20:43
understand how you get that number you
01:20:44
take that the article said it the
01:20:47
article said for 440 000. do you take
01:20:50
9.8 billion and divided by seven
01:20:52
thousand what do you do I'm just quoting
01:20:54
that paragraph for the article so yeah
01:20:56
so the job creation is good but you got
01:20:58
to look at the efficiency of the job
01:20:59
creation
01:21:00
the other thing is the question I would
01:21:02
ask you guys actually is who wants one
01:21:05
of these Ford EVs do you want an EV by
01:21:08
Ford
01:21:09
um I think there are a lot of people
01:21:10
that drive a Ford pickup truck
01:21:13
we talked about this before Saturday's
01:21:15
coming yeah very popular there was a an
01:21:18
article in the Wall Street Journal a few
01:21:20
months ago which talked about the brand
01:21:22
consideration cycle that has been going
01:21:24
on and there was a large look we're
01:21:26
friends with Elon but we should
01:21:27
acknowledge there's a large number of
01:21:29
people that are frankly a little bit
01:21:31
turned off by him and they've been very
01:21:33
clear that they want an alternative to
01:21:34
Tesla because they don't want to buy
01:21:36
Tesla because they don't necessarily
01:21:37
prefer him as a brand ambassador
01:21:39
for their car and the reality of life is
01:21:44
that even if you're like maximally
01:21:46
incredible unless you find some clever
01:21:48
way of creating a monopoly in which case
01:21:50
you can be a douche or evil you're only
01:21:53
ever going to capture 30 plus 40 maybe
01:21:56
of a market Coke Pepsi is a good example
01:21:58
and so there's always going to be long
01:22:00
tail Alternatives and you know I had a
01:22:03
chance for example in Vegas to drive a
01:22:05
rivian I was surprised at the Quality or
01:22:07
drive in Arabian I was surprised at the
01:22:09
quality of Ravine only because I've been
01:22:11
so
01:22:13
focused on Tesla my whole life so yeah I
01:22:15
think there are a lot of people that'll
01:22:16
buy forwards doesn't well take anything
01:22:17
away from what elon's doing but I do
01:22:19
think there are a lot of people that'll
01:22:20
buy it my problem with industrial policy
01:22:21
is this you think about that EV Summit
01:22:24
that the White House did they didn't
01:22:25
even invite Elon and that that was for
01:22:27
political reasons Union reasons yeah
01:22:29
partly because of his views on speech
01:22:31
but I think mostly because he's not a
01:22:33
union shop right and so that's the real
01:22:36
reason why Ford is being doled out this
01:22:39
sort of nine point something billion
01:22:41
dollar loan is because they're
01:22:44
politically connected with the right
01:22:45
people in this current Administration
01:22:47
and that's the problem with industrial
01:22:49
policy is that the money gets handed out
01:22:51
by government to the politically
01:22:53
connected in this case to the companies
01:22:55
that may be producing the best products
01:22:57
the fact is Tesla did get one of these
01:22:59
loans in 2010 when it was a very nascent
01:23:01
company so you got to give them some
01:23:03
credit they took a big risk there let's
01:23:04
think about that for a second okay
01:23:06
because I know that example comes up a
01:23:07
lot and A123 and solyndra yeah so Elon
01:23:11
was basically a fluke I mean you get
01:23:13
like a once in a generation entrepreneur
01:23:15
who happens to be working on this EV
01:23:16
problem and he got that loan if you're
01:23:19
to take Elon out of that government
01:23:21
portfolio it all looks like solyndra yep
01:23:24
so the question is like what is this
01:23:27
portfolio going to look like is there
01:23:28
really going to be another Elon in there
01:23:30
because if not there's going to be a lot
01:23:32
of cylinders but even if they break even
01:23:34
there's gonna be a lot of subsidies to
01:23:36
companies like Ford which are
01:23:37
politically connected and I think a
01:23:39
point Freeburg would make if he were
01:23:41
here
01:23:42
is that at some point you're going to
01:23:44
turn off the subsidies because we can't
01:23:45
afford it and then at that point is that
01:23:48
factory going to be self-sufficient
01:23:50
Brad
01:23:51
you wanna you've heard the two sides of
01:23:53
the story here and listen while
01:23:55
generally against industrial policy I I
01:23:58
come down on jamas side I think this is
01:24:00
a once in a generation opportunity to
01:24:02
reduce our national security
01:24:06
risk profile and to achieve what is
01:24:09
really a national security imperative
01:24:11
which is energy Independence it's not
01:24:13
going to happen just according to the
01:24:15
Invisible Hand of the market
01:24:17
we see our you know great power
01:24:20
competitors who are using this against
01:24:22
us frankly and have robust industrial
01:24:25
policies so I'm willing to stipulate
01:24:27
that there will be those inefficiencies
01:24:29
in this system but I was lucky lucky
01:24:32
enough last night I was having dinner
01:24:33
with the deputy secretary of the
01:24:35
treasury Wally adiyama who was out here
01:24:37
meeting with Founders including battery
01:24:39
Founders in Silicon Valley on this very
01:24:43
subject and I know some of the companies
01:24:45
who are getting checks from the US
01:24:46
government to scale up right Innovative
01:24:49
battery technologies innovative
01:24:53
chip manufacturing and I have to say
01:24:55
this is the best of America I see some
01:24:58
really great public-private Partnerships
01:25:01
that are onshoring vital national
01:25:04
interests in chips and batteries and so
01:25:07
I'm happy to see it happening but I also
01:25:09
know there will be grift and there will
01:25:10
be waste along the way but compare that
01:25:13
David to the 8 trillion we've spent over
01:25:15
the last 20 years on war policy
01:25:18
and what we've gotten from that so you
01:25:20
know uh yeah I'd rather see us take
01:25:22
chances here on Innovative battery
01:25:25
technologies potential waste but not as
01:25:27
wasteful as a war well of course I mean
01:25:29
the first thing we got to do is turn off
01:25:31
all these crazy Wars but that can't be
01:25:32
the bar because that's a very low bar
01:25:34
anything's more productive than War
01:25:36
wasting the money blowing up other
01:25:39
countries that we don't need to be
01:25:40
involved in
01:25:42
I mean remember we do have a 32 trillion
01:25:43
dollar debt I think a great thing to do
01:25:46
here is what they should have done with
01:25:47
Tesla which is when they give that 500
01:25:49
million dollar loan to Tesla they should
01:25:51
have gotten 10 of that in warrants to
01:25:53
buy Tesla shares at the IPO 50 million
01:25:55
at that IPO would have gone what 200x
01:25:58
and that would have been an incredible
01:26:00
payday so if they give this 9.2 billion
01:26:02
to Ford why not get 900 million
01:26:05
governments become a VC no I want them
01:26:08
to get a little participation in the uh
01:26:11
upside of the company I don't want them
01:26:13
to own it I want that's a potential
01:26:14
participation well I I'm giving a modest
01:26:17
number here so right now there are VC
01:26:19
without participation but right now
01:26:21
they're alone that gets paid back with
01:26:23
interest and I'm saying give them some
01:26:25
upside in the equity even if it's a
01:26:27
small piece would you object to that sex
01:26:28
you basically want to make them a
01:26:30
venture debt provider like svb basically
01:26:32
yeah like Venture debt like give them a
01:26:33
pot sweetener yes yes give them a pot
01:26:36
sweetener why does it work out so good
01:26:37
for svb you may not remember that but it
01:26:40
would have worked out incredibly well
01:26:41
with their pressings that's all my
01:26:43
problem you might drive a better deal
01:26:45
for the US government in that case which
01:26:47
is fine with me but it doesn't solve my
01:26:49
objection which is at the end of the day
01:26:51
these decisions are going to be made
01:26:52
based on political criteria awesome got
01:26:54
it okay and we're going to end up with
01:26:56
chronic capitalism and state capitalism
01:26:57
as opposed to entrepreneurial capitalism
01:26:59
but this is in support of that because
01:27:01
this is a deal where that 9.8 billion
01:27:04
does come over but these are basically
01:27:05
like loans and Loan guarantees and you
01:27:07
saw have to put up the equity yourself
01:27:08
that doesn't solve anybody's problem
01:27:10
meaning you need to still be
01:27:11
entrepreneurial and there needs to be
01:27:13
risk capital in this case the risk
01:27:15
capital is coming from Ford and SK and I
01:27:17
think that that's my understanding of
01:27:19
this chart is really suspicious
01:27:21
or 95 of the cost so there's not much
01:27:24
risk Capital here from Ford or SK I mean
01:27:27
it might be opportunity costs but it's
01:27:28
not the full cost of these three
01:27:30
factories almost 13 billion dollars
01:27:33
so there's still a non-trivial amount of
01:27:35
risk risk Capital that has to get put to
01:27:37
work here man I would love to only have
01:27:39
to put up 20 on the dollar with 30 cents
01:27:42
on the dollar my investments I think
01:27:43
Brad does make a good point about the
01:27:46
security of our supply chain I'm more
01:27:48
willing to use this sort of industrial
01:27:50
policy when we're talking about
01:27:51
something that is vital to the security
01:27:52
of the United States I think you could
01:27:55
make that argument with chips I don't
01:27:56
think electric vehicles rise to that
01:27:58
quite that level batteries might I don't
01:28:01
know I wouldn't say batteries do but I
01:28:03
think obtaining a secure supply of the
01:28:05
rare Earths that are needed to make
01:28:07
batteries there's maybe a role for
01:28:09
government David the reason batteries
01:28:11
must
01:28:12
is because the only way to wean
01:28:15
ourselves off of the dependence we have
01:28:17
on fossil fuels around the world and
01:28:20
even though we produce and we're now a
01:28:23
net exporter of of oil the reality is
01:28:26
we're still in entanglements around the
01:28:28
world because the world is dependent
01:28:30
upon those fossil fuels and so I I do
01:28:34
think that that is a national security
01:28:36
interest having you know energy
01:28:38
Independence not only for ourselves if
01:28:39
Germany was energy independent and kept
01:28:41
their nuclear running it didn't have
01:28:42
North stream we'd have a different
01:28:43
situation here right now
01:28:45
we've got plenty of oil and gas over
01:28:48
here all right everybody there you have
01:28:50
it from the architect
01:28:56
that was a really good tweet shout out
01:28:58
to you oh my god the number of number of
01:29:01
people I I mean did the mids like it or
01:29:03
the mids hated it what happened can I
01:29:04
just address what this means so when I
01:29:07
think of somebody as a mid it's somebody
01:29:08
that is just a
01:29:10
hapless impotent cuck that can't think
01:29:14
for themselves Matt Iglesias
01:29:18
oh and so what I do what I don't mean is
01:29:20
that you know
01:29:21
you're gonna write about us every week
01:29:23
you know what this is It's the all-in
01:29:25
podcast for clicks if you 10 people have
01:29:28
started can I finish yes it has nothing
01:29:30
to do with your
01:29:32
financial status it's just everything to
01:29:35
do with your open-mindedness and there
01:29:37
are these people that are just so
01:29:39
reactive on Twitter I feel a little bit
01:29:41
sad because like in a few years they'll
01:29:43
still be very unaccomplished and yet
01:29:45
still be wondering
01:29:47
who they can blame now and it'll just be
01:29:49
them blame themselves so I would just
01:29:52
encourage these people to just [ __ ]
01:29:54
do some work put your head down do the
01:29:56
work my god build something make
01:29:59
something so anyways most most of the
01:30:00
comments were really great and
01:30:02
interesting and then there's a couple of
01:30:03
people who are like oh my God how dare
01:30:05
you you know uh and it's like how dare I
01:30:08
what how dare I what exactly you can
01:30:10
tell that this podcast has truly become
01:30:13
successful when the mainstream media
01:30:15
fights up and punches up to try to get
01:30:17
us to respond to them to get more people
01:30:19
to subscribe to their substack while
01:30:20
playing Matt I'll tell you the funniest
01:30:22
thing the funniest thing was I did this
01:30:24
tweet about Buffett and then people are
01:30:27
like oh but I thought you compared
01:30:29
yourself to Buffett and I was like no no
01:30:31
comparison just benchmarks and then they
01:30:33
get tweaked about the word comparison
01:30:35
versus benchmark
01:30:36
and then Carson block jumps in and I
01:30:40
texted Carson on the side I was like bro
01:30:42
I'm just trolling the mids just don't
01:30:44
worry this is all [ __ ] it's not just
01:30:47
for [ __ ] together I do it when I'm
01:30:49
either pooing or I'm jet lagged it's one
01:30:52
of the other it's on Ambien where while
01:30:55
taking a dump or both no ambient for the
01:30:58
dictator the architect
01:31:01
and bestie Brad the fifth bestie and our
01:31:05
Mass our new mascot Matt the mascot who
01:31:08
will be writing three more sub Stacks
01:31:09
about us I am the world's greatest
01:31:12
moderator can we make that [ __ ] bread
01:31:14
logo our logo yes
01:31:17
to coach who's
01:31:20
uh starting measure lunch We Salute You
01:31:23
The Olive lunch will not be uh by the
01:31:25
way should you guys touch it do you know
01:31:27
what it was was it Brett did you touch
01:31:29
it I didn't touch it no what was it I
01:31:32
abandoned it immediately it's a vegan
01:31:34
pretzel I don't know that was a vegan is
01:31:36
that what they call poop dog poop now a
01:31:39
vegan pretzel
01:31:40
Friedberg was gonna be there a vegan
01:31:57
[Music]
01:32:13
honestly
01:32:18
is great I'm gonna buy some fake doodoo
01:32:21
actually you know what they should do
01:32:22
they should put that kotu should make
01:32:24
fake doo-doo and put it in the gift bag
01:32:25
for all in Summit that would be a great
01:32:27
little merch item all right we'll see
01:32:28
you all next time bye bye love you boys
01:32:31
[Applause]
01:32:32
we'll let your winners ride
01:32:36
[Music]
01:32:40
we open source it to the fans and
01:32:43
they've just gone crazy
01:32:44
[Music]
01:32:51
somehow
01:32:56
[Music]
01:33:16
waiting to get Mercies
01:33:21
[Music]
01:33:26
I'm going all in
