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all right everybody welcome back to the
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all-in podcast
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our incredible comedian celebrity guest
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got sick at the last minute today and
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didn't make it we won't say who it is
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but my Lord when he comes on this show
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you are going to laugh your ass off
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because he's awesome I like the
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comedians I think that their takes on
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society and culture are pretty
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interesting I think do you think it will
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work in our format what's your
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prediction here we've never done it I
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think the quality of the show is best
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when it's less just people doing takes
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and it's more the back and forth banter
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so yeah that's what I'm always trying to
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do is get the ball to go around the horn
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and get some real dialogue going here
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but uh you know sometimes people feel
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passionate with me again this week on
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the all-in podcast David freeberg and
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shth poopaa my name is Jason cakenis you
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can follow me on x.com Jason he's choth
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and he's why why can't I why can't I
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make fun of you in the replies on
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Twitter
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anymore oh because AB apply to you no
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what I did was my replies were so many
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Maga lunatics and crypto scams that I
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had no choice but to like I had to do
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something because I would have like 500
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replies to every single one and I put it
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on subscription and I said if you want a
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reply it's $3 a month now 1,500 lunatics
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signed up so I did I did so I could
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troll it just so you can troll me and I
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thank you for the $3 every month it's
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all going to
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char let your winners
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ride Rainman
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David and instead we open source it to
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the fans and they've just gone crazy
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with it love
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you you want an intro to the show or get
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some warm-up an about Jeopardy or do you
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want to go right into Epstein the letter
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from Pam to cash is is crazy dear
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director Patel before you came into
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office I requested the full and complete
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files related to Jeffrey Epstein in
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response to this request I received
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approximately 200 pages of documents
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late yesterday I learned from a source
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that the FBI field office in New York
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was in possession of thousands of pages
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of documents related to the
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investigation and indictment of Epstein
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despite my repeated requests the FBI
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never disclosed the existence of these
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files when you and I spoke yesterday you
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were just as surprised as I was to learn
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this new
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information by 8:00 a.m. tomorrow
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February 28th the FBI will deliver the
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full and complete Epstein files to my
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office regardless of how such
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information was obtained there will be
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no withholding or limitations to my or
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your access my question to you guys is
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do you think that this is much to do
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about nothing then that the FBI needs to
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have the discretion to be able to say no
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or do you think this is one of these
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things where you're not allowed to uh do
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what they're doing I think it's above my
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pay grad I don't know the law of like
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FBI
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investigations and then what if they
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investigated a bunch of people they were
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not guilty and then they were in the
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files maybe they need to look at them
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before they do a document on maybe
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there's informant in there I'm trying to
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think of what happened with like The
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Whistleblower papers from um this says
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something different this doesn't say
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let's negotiate what we should release
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together so that we protect people this
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says
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we're just gonna lie to we're gonna lie
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to you and tell you that you know here's
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here's that's her side to the story
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maybe they have another side maybe the
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FBI has a different side we have to hear
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from them right is this just like people
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are intrigued by the gossip angle of it
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or is it because they want to prosecute
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people for hurting people or is it
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because they want to cancel people and
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this is a nice opportunity to cancel
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like what's what's what's the I think's
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happen interesting question because this
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thing's been going on for 20 years I
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think this actually has more to do with
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conspiracy there is and now the Deep
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state like is there a deep State cover
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up is the question I think the question
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is if the chain of command requests
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something are you allowed to withhold it
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because you decide in your own judgment
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that the person above you doesn't
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deserve to know it I think that's an
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important question yeah the thing about
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the FBI is the FBI can withhold
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information from the president from
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other folks if there's an ongoing
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investigation sources are like secret
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and they would be Jeopardy and National
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Security concerns I'm I'm reading here
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so I'm very excited to see these next
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two days unfold listen it's a breaking
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news story we'll have more to say about
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it next week when we get the facts all
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right it has been an amazing 24 hours
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for my guy David freedberg I am so proud
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of you if people don't know David
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freeberg was on I'm sorry Celebrity
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Jeopardy this week and he had a great
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performance Je you can't say that I
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can't say it you're right bleep it out
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bleep it out so you were on celebrity
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quote unquote Jeopardy shows you how
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much of a bar there is the bar was
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pretty low they they're now inviting
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podcasters apparently but Jeopardy's
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watched by like 10 million people every
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episode right yeah they have like a huge
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audience on regular Jeopardy I think
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it's like 9 million a night or something
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or seven seven to n million a night yeah
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but I think Celebrity Jeopardy because
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it's like later it's got a smaller
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audience but it's still like couple
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million people watch this thing which is
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crazy so you were on and for the last
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four or five months we've all had to
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like bite our tongues and you've been in
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a full scale I don't want to say panic
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but you've been hand ringing about your
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performance and spoiler alert freeberg
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won not only did he win heing crushed it
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I was like watching this this was like
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better than watching the World Series of
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Poker or a Knicks Warriors game for me
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here is my my favorite M moment the
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Allin call as a tribute he gets the deli
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double and I'm going to go Allin Ken oh
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okay how dare you 12,800 for Dave but
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you have to be correct in African
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geography known for its snows this
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Tanzanian Peak is both Africa's highest
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and the world's tallest freestanding
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Mountain what is Mount kilamanjaro that
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is correct
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12, what did you think of that moment
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Shan he goes all in and these people
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they think that they're to get freedberg
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by giving him a question about Africa
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not knowing that he's
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african-amer honestly like a
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six-year-old you guys want to hear
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something crazy so sixy old should know
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that category no that so that category
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African geography I was at dinner the
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night before with our friend Xander and
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his wife uhuh and we started talking
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about their son was taking a quiz on
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African geography and they started
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giving me all the questions and we were
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actually quizzing at dinner the night
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before on African geography it was like
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a Slum Dog Millionaire moment and I was
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like in my head I'm like there's no way
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that's real that that actually happened
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we literally were just talking about
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African geography at dinner the night
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before and I'm like the judges had to
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have been listening or something but but
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you were nervous you talked about being
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nervous and your techniques our friend
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Jason but the we actually are lucky
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enough to play with one serious
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professional poker player in our game
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Jason comes to to the game and he
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coached you a bit what did he what did
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he what was his advice to you well I was
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a little wound up because I watched
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Jeopardy my whole like since I was a kid
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right I mean I don't watch it regularly
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but like a couple months ago I was kind
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of watching the show I kind of reached
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out and was like Hey you know do you
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guys know anyone on the show and that's
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how I got like hooked up so and I'm like
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wait I'm really going on that's awesome
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okay and they're like you're going on
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Celebrity Jeopardy so I watched the
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Celebrity Jeopardy episodes from last
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season and and I figured I could get
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like 60% of the answers but you get
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there and you don't realize how hard it
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is to buzz in in time because if you
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buzz before the light turns on I've
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heard this over and over how does it
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work because you bought I understand an
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actual buzzer to practice with am I am I
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correct you did this well yeah I bought
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this cheap buzzer on Amazon the pressive
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but it didn't do anything so I'm
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watching the TV at home watching old EP
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Celebrity Jeopardy episodes from last
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year and I'm like oh buzz in buzz in but
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the problem is when you're there you're
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not allowed to buzz till the light comes
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on and if you buzz too early you get
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locked out for a quarter second and that
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quarter second makes a huge difference
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so I was actually behind the people I
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was against most of the show I felt when
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I was buzzing in I'm like I know the
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answer and I kept missing I kept missing
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so I still did okay obviously but wait a
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second let me ask you a question about
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that buzzing thing a light goes on when
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does the light go on when the question
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is finished or after half show the
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question on a huge screen so the whole
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screen gives you the question right away
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when so you can read ahead so you can
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read ahead just read the whole thing
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boom yeah then you have to wait for Ken
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Jennings to finish as soon as he
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finishes enunciating the last syllable
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of the last word the like turns on but
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here's what I found out there is a delay
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of about 150 to 200 milliseconds
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difference between your eyes and your
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ears you actually hear stuff before you
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see stuff and which is really
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interesting like for your brain to
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register it and people have different
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different delays but for me I'm like
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waiting for the light and then I buzz in
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and it's too late because the people
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next to me have buzzed in so speed of
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sound vers but anyway I was a little I
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was a little wound up going into this I
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called Jason because I realized
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there's no upside by the time I show up
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I'm like I'm gonna look like an absolute
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idiot for saying some stupid stuff
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getting answers wrong which of course
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everyone texts me last night being like
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how' you miss hoers how'd you miss this
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all right you since you're bringing up
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the big
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Miss Daily Double oh man you get the
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Daily Double
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16,000 crushing crushing crushing their
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soul not my best category I'll go 4,000
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look great even 20,000 if you're right
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climactic Moments in Sports movies Jimmy
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Chitwood buries a jumper from the top of
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the key to win the Hickory Huskers the
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Indiana State
00:10:18
Championship what is Hoops sorry no what
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am I doing you were right I'm so
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embarrassed watching it I can't watch
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dream come on dude I whoer I know I know
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hoers I mean come on Jean hman he died
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today and no one sends me a text being
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like oh I can't believe you got that
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answer great job everyone just sends the
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text how did you not get hooers how did
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you not get cream it's always like oh I
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knew the answer you're need I realize
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different and I realize as I'm walking
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in Jeopardy I'm like you know what
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there's no upside because what'll happen
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is everyone will just call you an idiot
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for the things you miss which is well I
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mean and let's face it you're the Sultan
00:10:57
of science you went to an
00:11:00
you worked at Google so there's an
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expectation you should run these people
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over you did run them over for you know
00:11:05
who you're facing in the semi-final we
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don't know until all the quarterfinals
00:11:09
are over and that'll be in the next
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couple weeks here when you see a
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category come up like the hooers one
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right I think that one was about sports
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movies right yeah that was uh Sports
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movies like big so don't you when you
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see Sports movies in your head catalog
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probable answers like
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Rudy and you know Field of Dreams
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yeah so you had all those ready to
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go like look I'm not a guy who gets very
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nervous I don't get like stage fright or
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like wound up but for Jeopardy it's so
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weird you're up there and you can't
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focus or concentrate like you normally
00:11:45
can my brain had these like weird brain
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farts where I'm like I know the answer
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why isn't it coming out or I buzz in and
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I said like Beethoven instead of De I'm
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like why did that come out God for CLA
00:11:54
Delon you don't have to I mean dude
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don't get me started so there we there's
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weird stuff that happens up there that's
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really hard to explain and then you're
00:12:01
angry about the buzzing you can't buzz
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in in time and you're on the set of
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Jeopardy and it's like oh my God I'm
00:12:06
actually on the set of Jeopardy it's all
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real and you're like watching the scores
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very it's very overwhelming there an
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audience yes there is an audience yeah
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like a 100 people there about 100 people
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yeah yeah W that's nice yeah before you
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go on the the show they have you do a
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practice round in front of the audience
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just so you get everyone gets used to it
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and I deliberately answered wrong and I
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was like acting like an idiot and acting
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like I couldn't buzz and acting like I
00:12:33
didn't know theed I tried to be like he
00:12:36
I tried to be a little so diabolical
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yeah I don't really know what I'm doing
00:12:40
here sharp elbows yeah and then I Came
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Out Swinging and I felt like I had to
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kind of get aggressive out the gate and
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you yeah I've done that before in a bar
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fight once I was like guys guys we don't
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need to get in a fight and then like
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bang I just clocked the G anyway we're
00:12:53
so proud of you you won you trounced
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them I have to say the for the Humane
00:12:58
Society United States all the money went
00:13:00
to charity Humane s of the US how much
00:13:01
did you make for them in the end if you
00:13:03
win the whole tournament it's a million
00:13:05
dollars and thenot of do food as the
00:13:07
winner your charity gets more and the
00:13:09
losers their charity gets less but it's
00:13:11
a fixed amount it's like 30,000 or
00:13:12
50,000 or something like that nice I
00:13:14
think they should put the three of us on
00:13:16
together normal episode that would be
00:13:19
crazy oh my God I would wreck three of
00:13:21
us were on I would wreck your ass no you
00:13:23
would not I will play you heads up
00:13:25
Jeopardy anytime for money let's play I
00:13:28
say we play poker we'll play for all of
00:13:30
the Allin
00:13:33
profits I'll give you two retards twox
00:13:36
the chip stack and let's see what
00:13:37
happens oh my God and that sounds so
00:13:40
compelling would you do it actually J
00:13:42
would you do that would you do it all
00:13:44
the profits all the profits I do it for
00:13:46
all the profits but I would carve out
00:13:48
25% of the profits for a four-way
00:13:50
tournament that was televised live if we
00:13:51
could get 2 million in sponsors then
00:13:53
we'd be up no matter
00:13:54
what grift endless not grifting I'm
00:13:58
thinking like a business the whole point
00:13:59
is no I want to do this so that I
00:14:01
inflict pain on one of you or both what
00:14:03
gives Chim happiness is hurting others
00:14:06
that's we that's his love language his
00:14:08
love language hurting the people he
00:14:11
loves love language is hurting the
00:14:13
people who love him I like putting you
00:14:16
two to the test and I like to see you
00:14:18
two break okay this what makes him feel
00:14:20
good anyways did you guys see Brett
00:14:21
atc's tweet no what did you say friend
00:14:23
of the Pod Brett atock who's a CEO and
00:14:26
founder of figure he just announced
00:14:28
today that he's moved his timelines up
00:14:31
by two years he's going to Beta Testing
00:14:34
robots in the home by by the middle to
00:14:36
end of this
00:14:37
year that's crazy
00:14:39
crazy crazy I mean are you an investor
00:14:42
in his company I don't talk about my
00:14:45
investments but in this casos here but
00:14:47
in this case no I'm not an
00:14:50
investor so we're not talking a book
00:14:52
here I do think Optimus and this figure
00:14:55
and the other this about a dozen of
00:14:57
these doing it credibly if they can make
00:15:00
these for what shamama 20 grand when do
00:15:01
you think it becomes something a middle
00:15:03
class household you know dual income
00:15:05
household would buy one of
00:15:08
these five years from now 10 years from
00:15:10
now how how could they be well I think
00:15:13
the issue is bounded by two things one
00:15:15
is
00:15:16
that I'm not sure that the generalized
00:15:19
AI is good enough yet and what he did
00:15:22
was he had a deal with open AI which he
00:15:26
pretty publicly cancelled a few weeks
00:15:28
ago m and he announced his own model and
00:15:33
I don't know the details of it to know
00:15:35
whether he rolled it himself or this is
00:15:38
just like taking some open source based
00:15:40
model and iterating from
00:15:42
it but I think the model is not perfect
00:15:46
yet to be general purpose that's one and
00:15:50
then the second is a practical issue
00:15:51
with the robots which is that the
00:15:53
actuators themselves are good but
00:15:56
they're not great and you can see it in
00:15:58
in the demo where it's an incredible
00:16:01
demo because it shows the value and the
00:16:03
power of the model where there's sort of
00:16:05
this Master Slave orientation that has
00:16:07
to happen where one model is actually
00:16:09
doing most of the computation and the
00:16:11
second model and the second robot is in
00:16:13
feeding off of it and the demo that they
00:16:15
do Nick you can probably find the video
00:16:17
is of them sorting a bag of groceries
00:16:19
for the first time totally unsupervised
00:16:22
which and it's it's an incredibly cool
00:16:24
demo it's a cool demo the thing that
00:16:26
that you notice though is that the
00:16:27
actuators are good they're not great and
00:16:29
so the physical dexterity is still
00:16:31
relatively limited and I think that that
00:16:33
doesn't allow these robots to be super
00:16:35
functional in the next couple of years
00:16:37
but when they get that figured out then
00:16:39
I think it could be really useful
00:16:40
because if you have a robot like this
00:16:42
that could sort the groceries make food
00:16:46
do the laundry mow the lawn so to speak
00:16:49
it just requires a level of dexterity
00:16:51
that's not yet totally possible but see
00:16:53
in this example what you're seeing are
00:16:55
the two robots basically figuring out
00:16:57
how to communicate semantically between
00:16:59
the robots and that's incredibly
00:17:00
powerful and it's yet another sort of
00:17:03
breakthrough that we need so I don't
00:17:04
know we're probably like a couple years
00:17:05
away but see look at the dexterity there
00:17:08
he's taking the pepp farms and feels
00:17:10
like he's crushing the pepp Farms or she
00:17:12
or whatever you call this robot they
00:17:14
then please don't misgender the robot
00:17:16
but it's it's really incredible they're
00:17:17
figuring the the coolest part of this
00:17:19
demo by the way which I loved was they
00:17:21
take an apple and then the second robot
00:17:24
figures out that it should go in the
00:17:26
fruit bow pushes the fruit bow to the
00:17:29
first robot and then the first robot
00:17:32
that's cool there it is but that level
00:17:34
of semantic awareness and understanding
00:17:36
between two models working
00:17:39
dependently is very cool look at that
00:17:42
that's very cool they're collaborating
00:17:44
with each other makes total sense I can
00:17:45
tell you here on the ranch I would love
00:17:47
to have an allpurpose robot going out
00:17:50
there and using the weed whacker and and
00:17:52
trimming the the the the bushes and the
00:17:54
hedges and getting me wood and
00:17:56
collecting chicken eggs like there's a
00:17:58
million things they could do on a ranch
00:17:59
it be immediately applicable for ranch
00:18:02
work and if they're 24 hours a day it
00:18:04
doesn't matter if they go slow but I I
00:18:06
think this is the category people are
00:18:08
sleeping on and I I don't know who on
00:18:10
the on our prediction show said this
00:18:12
will be the year of robots but it's been
00:18:14
this is the year of robots for 30 years
00:18:15
in the industry and it does feel like
00:18:17
this is it freeberg you're sticking with
00:18:19
your prediction I assume yeah I am yeah
00:18:23
I think it's
00:18:24
also it's not just this kind of
00:18:27
dexterous automation but but I do think
00:18:30
drones autonomous
00:18:32
vehicles I put them all in the same
00:18:35
category where there there's some it's
00:18:37
some combination of mechanical response
00:18:41
to a machine Vision
00:18:43
system that uh I think has become like
00:18:47
accelerated this year you need a lot of
00:18:49
rare Earths to make robots yeah where
00:18:51
could we ever get those from H does
00:18:53
anybody owe us a little money is anybody
00:18:54
behind on their payments maybe The Vig
00:18:56
could be a little you know taste
00:18:59
I don't know if you guys have seen this
00:19:01
but there was a company in the 90s that
00:19:02
was all the rage called segue they were
00:19:04
going to absolutely change cities and
00:19:06
everything and they never did but it was
00:19:08
basically like a scooter you could walk
00:19:09
on and had a a balancing uh kind of
00:19:12
system to it but they made robots and
00:19:14
here they're making these lawnmowers now
00:19:17
and these lawnmowers are really like
00:19:19
cheap they're a th000 bucks and they
00:19:21
work here in Austin I have seen two or
00:19:23
three of these on people's Lawns this
00:19:25
could be like you know what was the one
00:19:27
that you did in your house Roomba so
00:19:30
your point freeberg there will be
00:19:32
Purpose Driven ones to deliver you a
00:19:34
burrito do your lawn Etc and a room is
00:19:37
like three or 400 bucks I think and this
00:19:39
thing's a th000 bucks man this is going
00:19:42
to get crazy I do think it's it's a lot
00:19:44
harder to create one of these general
00:19:46
purpose systems in automation then
00:19:48
create like vertically or kind of
00:19:51
utility specific automation system so a
00:19:54
device that just does one thing delivers
00:19:56
something to you in the air or drives
00:19:58
your food to you or loads and unloads
00:20:01
your dishes you know I'm not sure if
00:20:03
that's the whole the whole idea of the
00:20:04
humanoid is it's ambitious yeah it is a
00:20:09
general purpose device and it makes a a
00:20:12
technically very hard road map I got to
00:20:14
imagine some of the bulldozers out there
00:20:17
are also now becoming remote controlled
00:20:19
so you can get like a a bulldozzer that
00:20:21
you have to put in a dangerous situation
00:20:23
and their remote control and they're
00:20:25
going to have ai so I got pitched on a
00:20:27
startup one time that was to go up into
00:20:29
Tahoe Hills and allow humans with remote
00:20:32
controls to drive Jam off little
00:20:34
bulldozers and make fire pths so imagine
00:20:36
some fire breaks out you send in or
00:20:38
helicopter in the bulldozzer no human in
00:20:41
it just got a 5G connection or a
00:20:43
starlane connection and Zip Zip Zip
00:20:46
you're doing fire roads in the middle of
00:20:47
the smoke dense area it's going to be
00:20:49
really interesting when these things uh
00:20:51
get dialed in and they're getting every
00:20:54
day I'm going to ask Brett to be a ba
00:20:55
Alpha tester of one of these robots in
00:20:57
my house and then we'll go and do we'll
00:20:59
do a segment that would be great excuse
00:21:01
me
00:21:02
robot can I get some more morels toot
00:21:05
sweet morels let's talk about stripe I
00:21:07
thought the the report was really good
00:21:10
we had the cison brothers on last week
00:21:12
they crushed it great job to them and
00:21:14
then um here is a quick summary so uh in
00:21:17
terms of processing volume Aden 1.34
00:21:21
trillion stripe at 1.4 trillion I mean
00:21:23
that's incredible that they're both in
00:21:24
the almost the same exact space one's
00:21:26
growing 33% strip going 38% valuation
00:21:30
Aden 56 they're public stripe private
00:21:33
91.5 billion I guess that's the private
00:21:35
Market premium employee account very
00:21:38
interesting here since we've been
00:21:39
talking about uh Jamie Diamond's uh rant
00:21:42
last week Aden 4.3 th000 stripe over
00:21:45
8,000 and uh both are profitable aden's
00:21:48
got a billy in iida which is
00:21:51
extraordinary but stripe has a higher
00:21:53
margin what's your take on aala Two
00:21:55
Cities here I thought there was three
00:21:56
takeaways the first takeaway for me was
00:21:59
the value of Stripes ecosystem is is
00:22:02
probably underappreciated I think
00:22:04
Patrick mentioned it but he just kind of
00:22:06
said it as a passing fact and none of us
00:22:09
picked up on it but in the report they
00:22:11
talk about all the additional products
00:22:12
that they're able to build around core
00:22:14
payments and one of them is the billing
00:22:16
product it's half a billion dollars a
00:22:17
year of ARR that's just incredible and I
00:22:21
think if they figure out Network effects
00:22:22
inside of the stripe ecosystem that's
00:22:25
interesting so that's first which is The
00:22:27
Hubb and spoke of of payments being at
00:22:29
the center been all of these other
00:22:30
incremental Services I think that that's
00:22:32
really interesting and underappreciated
00:22:34
for stripe that probably speaks to why
00:22:36
there's such a difference in valuation
00:22:37
because aen has less of that ecosystem
00:22:39
or at least it's not nearly as well
00:22:42
described maybe as Stripes is that's
00:22:43
number one second is I go back to what
00:22:47
I've been saying for a while now but the
00:22:48
the rise of these stable coins is really
00:22:52
interesting the stable coin
00:22:54
infrastructure globally the push for a
00:22:57
bunch of these National governments to
00:23:00
embrace them inside of India inside of
00:23:03
Brazil slowly it's happening inside of
00:23:05
the United States so I think that that
00:23:07
was really
00:23:08
interesting and then the third takeaway
00:23:11
Nick I sent you this tweet was just the
00:23:13
the nature of the
00:23:16
AI ecosystem relative to the rest
00:23:20
of SAS and what this is was from Stripes
00:23:25
report which showed the time to get to 5
00:23:28
million of annualized Revenue and the
00:23:31
average SAS company took 37 months and
00:23:34
by 2024 the top 100 AI companies got
00:23:37
there in 24
00:23:39
months I mean that's efficiency in the
00:23:42
market right I mean that's why we're all
00:23:44
looking at AI saying we could see a lot
00:23:47
of our economic issues come from growth
00:23:49
and the growth is very clear you can do
00:23:51
more with less and you can generate more
00:23:53
Revenue with AI so it's it's pretty
00:23:55
clear the trend yeah jaman I think it's
00:23:57
really clear I mean I can give you a
00:23:59
little factoid from 8090 you know we got
00:24:02
to 5 million of Revenue in three
00:24:06
months really crazy couple of WS in
00:24:08
there yeah couple of big ones yeah and
00:24:11
so it's just a very different selling
00:24:14
motion than than I've historically seen
00:24:18
where the ROI is just so obvious in
00:24:22
terms of the efficiency that it creates
00:24:24
and the cost savings you can generate
00:24:27
relative to traditional enterprise
00:24:28
software it's a more straightforward
00:24:30
sale the ROI is clearer the revenue is
00:24:34
bigger it happens faster yeah so there's
00:24:37
also I don't know if you're seeing it
00:24:39
but there's a sense of urgency in the
00:24:40
market right now people feel like they
00:24:43
have to adopt this new technology fast
00:24:45
because there's competition because the
00:24:47
gains are so clear because in a slowing
00:24:50
economy this is maybe a way to
00:24:52
accelerate Revenue I'll be honest with
00:24:53
you at least with the our 8090 customers
00:24:56
I haven't seen that yet you know we're
00:24:57
in
00:24:59
I don't know eight or nine segments of
00:25:01
the economy big segments of the
00:25:04
economy it's more still about the
00:25:06
frustration that they have with what I
00:25:08
would call the software industrial
00:25:09
complex there's a big and you you can
00:25:12
see it with what's happening to
00:25:13
Salesforce and other big companies is
00:25:15
that these renewal Cycles are getting
00:25:18
harder and harder to
00:25:19
justify and so people are willing to
00:25:22
take some bets and see if there are
00:25:24
different ways in dealing with this
00:25:26
problem and I think that's the real
00:25:28
opport
00:25:29
is if you can find a repeatable
00:25:32
pattern to help these companies replace
00:25:37
that big software spend that they have
00:25:41
yeah that scales really quickly and the
00:25:43
only way to do that really is using AI
00:25:45
in two ways AI inside the Machinery of
00:25:49
what you're using yourself to make the
00:25:51
things right so those are things like
00:25:53
cursor and whatnot to just fully
00:25:54
accelerate and then AI within some very
00:25:57
specific product that the customers
00:25:59
actually need that also create
00:26:01
efficiency so there's two different
00:26:02
places but the problem with using it in
00:26:04
both of these two different places is in
00:26:05
the first one you can manage the errors
00:26:09
it's very it's very straightforward at
00:26:10
the end of the day code either compiles
00:26:11
or it doesn't so even if you're using
00:26:14
something like cursor which is an
00:26:15
incredible product there are no errors
00:26:17
at the end of it because the thing
00:26:18
actually works or it doesn't the problem
00:26:20
is actually when you use these models in
00:26:22
actual work and if you're in a regulated
00:26:24
environment particularly it gets very
00:26:26
complicated because if you generate a
00:26:29
hallucination in a healthare business
00:26:31
and it causes a you know patient record
00:26:34
to be incorrect there are huge
00:26:36
consequences
00:26:38
there and that we haven't solved yet
00:26:40
that exists in regulated Finance it
00:26:44
exists when you're dealing with real
00:26:45
estate and construction it exists when
00:26:47
you're dealing with power it exists in
00:26:49
Aerospace right imagine if an llm helps
00:26:52
you design a plane better but if there's
00:26:55
a tolerance error and that's not well
00:26:57
understood that could have you know
00:26:59
horrific consequences Downstream so we
00:27:02
we're we're working with all these
00:27:03
people to try to figure it out it's a
00:27:05
very difficult technical challenge but I
00:27:07
just thought the stripe data was really
00:27:09
interesting because it validates what
00:27:10
we're seeing which is the the growth in
00:27:12
this industry is it's not like anything
00:27:14
I've ever seen before back to the stable
00:27:16
coins here's a look at tether they're
00:27:20
at43 billion in tethers out there who
00:27:24
knows what's reality there they've got a
00:27:27
little bit of a shaky history
00:27:29
and then usdc Jeremy oair is at 56
00:27:32
billion already and that's only been in
00:27:34
existence since like uh really an
00:27:36
Earnest like 2021 I do think strip's
00:27:39
main business could be for sitting here
00:27:41
in five years jamath could be sitting on
00:27:44
$300 billion and getting whatever it is
00:27:46
3 four 5% on some coupon right they
00:27:48
could be making 1020 billion in pure
00:27:52
profit if they uh have a stable coin out
00:27:55
there that gets widely adopted yeah and
00:27:57
and I and I think the best way for
00:27:59
stripe to actually do this is just to to
00:28:01
build it and to actually facilitate
00:28:03
payments between existing stripe
00:28:05
customers because again it's sort of
00:28:07
what I said last week these are all
00:28:09
ultimately Ledger entries and I think
00:28:10
that the more that you can commoditize
00:28:13
these things to be a simple Ledger entry
00:28:15
inside of two systems of record at two
00:28:17
companies that's a much better product
00:28:19
feature I think stripe has the scale to
00:28:21
do that now and to your point they could
00:28:24
have an enormous stable coin business at
00:28:26
the same time they're probably better
00:28:29
off just embracing what's already been
00:28:31
built it may be disruptive to try to
00:28:34
launch yet another one I don't know they
00:28:36
bought that other company so I got to
00:28:38
think they'll launch their own but
00:28:39
bridge is the facilitation layer it's
00:28:41
the rails yeah but I mean I think you
00:28:43
know this is where brand comes in if you
00:28:45
have a trusted brand amongst developers
00:28:47
and uh there's three choices are they
00:28:50
going to take tether which people go H
00:28:53
maybe it's a little sorted it's offshore
00:28:55
I got some challenges there am I going
00:28:57
to use USD see okay I haven't heard of
00:28:59
it but okay yeah they sound interesting
00:29:00
oh I'm going to use stripe I'm going to
00:29:02
go right to stripe it's kind of like the
00:29:03
IBM you know or Microsoft of payments
00:29:07
nobody gets fired for picking shrip I
00:29:09
would say so not anymore not anymore
00:29:12
right let's go through the market update
00:29:14
here a lot of people are trying to
00:29:17
figure out are we going to have a market
00:29:20
collapse a boom let's just look at some
00:29:22
of the numbers and have a a first
00:29:24
principal discussion here S&P up almost
00:29:26
2% so far this year NASDAQ 100 flat Dow
00:29:30
up 3% so pretty good start to the year
00:29:32
in those index numbers but if you look
00:29:35
at the max 7 some of them have some had
00:29:37
some serious compression Tesla down 27%
00:29:41
I do think that they had a big Trump
00:29:43
Elon Spike Google down 10% Amazon 9
00:29:46
Microsoft about 8% meta Apple Nvidia
00:29:49
were up to varying
00:29:50
degrees and then coming into our taping
00:29:55
this week Bitcoin down 15% over last
00:29:57
month that too got the Trump
00:29:59
bump and then adding to all this
00:30:02
confusion unemployment is still at
00:30:04
historic lows we're at close to 4% and
00:30:07
if you look at the deportations that
00:30:09
were promised they've been modest to
00:30:11
start obviously they're just getting
00:30:12
started they need some money to deport
00:30:14
folks but they've only been deporting
00:30:15
500 people to a th000 a
00:30:17
day and we haven't heard many numbers
00:30:19
about the last couple of weeks as Doge
00:30:21
has been sort of the center of attention
00:30:24
so you know they'd have to get to two or
00:30:25
3 th000 people a day to have low
00:30:28
Millions let's say Cham two or three
00:30:30
million people deported for it to have
00:30:31
any impact on
00:30:33
unemployment finally act three and then
00:30:36
we'll we'll get everybody's feedback on
00:30:37
this CPI up 3% year-over-year we had di
00:30:41
down to that nice 2% handle and uh now
00:30:44
it's back a little bit if you remember
00:30:46
in September it bottomed out around 2.4%
00:30:49
just in time for the election
00:30:51
interesting how that happened that same
00:30:54
month the FED cut 50 bips then it cut
00:30:56
another 25 in December and since
00:30:58
inflation's been growing modestly but
00:31:00
steadily not insignificantly so put it
00:31:02
all together trth and what do you think
00:31:04
and then freeberg will go to you I tend
00:31:07
to be sort of in the Stevie Cohen Camp
00:31:09
it's not like the bottom is going to
00:31:10
fall up but there's like a lot of room
00:31:13
for concern I guess is the best way to
00:31:15
put it um Nick I don't know if you can
00:31:16
find that clip that at fi but he had a
00:31:20
very precise summary of how he saw the
00:31:23
world and I I I frankly just agreed with
00:31:25
everything that he was saying so he he
00:31:27
probably can say say better than I when
00:31:29
you take a brew of tariffs on top of
00:31:33
that we have slowing immigration and in
00:31:36
addition now you have Doge I mean that's
00:31:38
austerity we think growth is going to
00:31:40
slow to 1 and a half% from 2 and a half%
00:31:43
in the second half and so I'm actually
00:31:45
pretty negative for the first time in a
00:31:47
while and it may only last a year or so
00:31:50
but it's definitely I think the best
00:31:52
gains have been had and and wouldn't
00:31:54
surprise me to see a significant
00:31:55
correction I think a couple of very
00:31:58
specific thoughts the first is that
00:32:00
you're starting to see this compression
00:32:01
of the mag 7
00:32:04
towards everybody else so this is the
00:32:06
forward PE of these guys and so what
00:32:08
you're starting to see is everybody else
00:32:11
starting to capture back some of the
00:32:13
ground people are processing what the
00:32:15
real upside of of the mag 7 is now if
00:32:18
you go to the other
00:32:19
chart what this starts to show you
00:32:21
though is that MA 7 is really priced to
00:32:24
Perfection and so you have to believe
00:32:27
that the world kind of stays the way
00:32:29
that it is otherwise you're going to
00:32:31
have some amount of of mean
00:32:33
reversion so I think the stock market on
00:32:36
the margin is a little expensive and not
00:32:40
particularly that attractive second the
00:32:43
bond market has basically said okay we
00:32:45
are going to give you credit that doge
00:32:49
is going to work and that tariffs are
00:32:50
going to work so we've had some pretty
00:32:53
meaningful compression in the 10e which
00:32:55
I think is really interesting I think
00:32:56
it's very good for Bess and and for
00:32:58
Trump and I think I've mentioned this
00:33:00
before but we got to go in and you know
00:33:03
refinance 10 trillion in the next six
00:33:06
months
00:33:07
so you could see this thing maybe even
00:33:11
get under 4% if we gets a good string of
00:33:15
data the real problem I think though is
00:33:17
that if you look back and say what does
00:33:21
this look
00:33:22
like the example that I would give you
00:33:24
guys is in 2010 in the United Kingdom
00:33:29
the deficit as a percentage of GDP was
00:33:32
10% and the UK government embarked on a
00:33:36
multi-year austerity plan and they said
00:33:39
we're going to get the deficit as a
00:33:41
percentage of GDP back in line and
00:33:44
ultimately by 2016 it got to 3% which is
00:33:47
where we are trying to get to and right
00:33:49
now we're a little bit under 7% we're
00:33:51
trying to get it to 3% so it's
00:33:54
interesting to ask what happened and
00:33:57
there the bond market gave the UK
00:34:00
government a ton of credit so they kept
00:34:02
rates relatively low and they brought
00:34:05
them back from where they
00:34:07
were that seems like What's Happening
00:34:09
Here Yeah the stock market the stock
00:34:11
market kind of went sideways to a little
00:34:13
bit
00:34:14
down let's see what happens here but the
00:34:17
real big thing is in the UK all of this
00:34:20
created tremendous
00:34:22
dissatisfaction and you had
00:34:25
brexit so I think the question that I
00:34:27
have is is if we go through a prolonged
00:34:30
austerity
00:34:33
program and the frustration amongst the
00:34:36
American populace builds what's the
00:34:38
release valve there the release valve
00:34:40
was Voting to leave the EU here it's not
00:34:43
quite it's not obvious to me what a
00:34:45
release electing Trump was step one and
00:34:47
I don't know if there's something even
00:34:48
more populist than Trump other than I I
00:34:51
think he is the mechanism of
00:34:53
implementing the austerity I think
00:34:54
people want this austerity just the
00:34:56
question is what happens when the actual
00:34:58
byproducts of that austerity are felt by
00:35:00
people for six or seven years I don't
00:35:02
know what the answer is certainly people
00:35:05
are in favor of Doge and downs serving
00:35:08
the government more than I think anybody
00:35:11
anticipated people are the statistics
00:35:13
are showing and the polls are showing
00:35:14
freeberg that it's incredibly popular
00:35:17
when you look at
00:35:19
this I don't want to say conflicting but
00:35:21
it's a lot of
00:35:23
different conflicting data here as to
00:35:25
what's going on what do you what are you
00:35:27
you see in the numbers here and what
00:35:29
does your instinct tell you
00:35:31
because part of this I think is getting
00:35:33
used to Trump again right like he says a
00:35:35
lot of stuff some of them are scary some
00:35:37
of them
00:35:39
are just trolling and everything in
00:35:41
between so what are your thoughts here
00:35:43
or Market's just adjusting to the the
00:35:45
new uh the new team back in town the big
00:35:48
question in the Trump actions is around
00:35:52
tariffs versus the tax cuts that are
00:35:55
being proposed versus the the spending
00:35:56
cuts those are kind of of the three
00:35:58
levers and there's a very serious
00:36:02
sensitivity to the economic outlook for
00:36:04
growth and inflation as a function of
00:36:07
how far each of those three levers are
00:36:09
pulled and how they relate to each other
00:36:12
is Trump actually going to pull forward
00:36:15
the cuts that he has talked about or
00:36:16
that elon's talked about how real is
00:36:18
that there's a whole spectrum of
00:36:20
opinions on that right now on one end
00:36:23
you're looking at the house and the
00:36:24
Senate reconciliation process for the
00:36:26
budget proposal that they've put forth
00:36:29
and you're going to scratch your head
00:36:30
and be like are we really cutting enough
00:36:32
relative to what the economists and
00:36:34
others are telling us we need to do
00:36:35
meanwhile you've got Elon and Trump
00:36:37
saying hey we're cutting we're cutting
00:36:38
we're saving we're going to get to a
00:36:40
trillion dollars a year but that's not
00:36:41
showing up necessarily in the budget is
00:36:43
it showing up in the actions out of Doge
00:36:45
TBD so there's a whole spectrum of
00:36:47
opinions on the cuts on the Tariff side
00:36:49
there's a spectrum of like how far are
00:36:51
these tariffs going to go you know the
00:36:53
United States up until 18 something
00:36:58
was entirely tariff driven in our
00:37:01
federal government's revenue and it was
00:37:04
a way of being kind of protection to the
00:37:05
industry here and then over time the
00:37:08
tariffs rates came down and down and
00:37:09
down as we introduced an income tax
00:37:11
which started I think at 3% right after
00:37:12
the Civil War and went to 5% for high
00:37:14
income earners and then obviously in the
00:37:16
20th century that's totally flipped now
00:37:18
we have like no tariffs and a 50% income
00:37:21
tax for the highest bracket so can we
00:37:24
actually revert back to a tariff driven
00:37:27
an income model for the federal
00:37:29
government and what is the economic
00:37:30
effect on growth for Corporate America
00:37:33
in that world where taxes get cut for
00:37:35
the companies and for individuals but we
00:37:37
make all of our money from global trade
00:37:40
does this the The increased cost of
00:37:42
global trade hurt companies more than
00:37:44
the benefit of paying fewer taxes lower
00:37:46
taxes that's the big economic argument
00:37:48
that's underway right now and it's funny
00:37:51
it kind of seems to fall along political
00:37:53
lines believe it or not much like
00:37:55
everything else you know like economists
00:37:58
that uh that are democratic aligned are
00:38:01
Dem my party doing uh I agree with that
00:38:03
yeah yeah exactly and so the Democrat
00:38:06
align economists will say the tariffs
00:38:09
don't make sense they reduce uh economic
00:38:12
growth they have a negative effect we
00:38:14
shouldn't be doing that and then the
00:38:16
Republican Allied economists are saying
00:38:18
the tax cuts will more than make up for
00:38:21
the reduce the reduction from the
00:38:24
tariffs and that's the big unknown right
00:38:26
now um so I would say that the spending
00:38:29
cuts wide spectrum the income tax cuts
00:38:32
big Spectrum on what's actually going to
00:38:34
get done here and then the tear Up's big
00:38:36
Spectrum on how far this is going to go
00:38:38
and so those three things you've got
00:38:39
like three very wide ranges of things
00:38:41
that all interplay that ultimately
00:38:43
determine inflation economic growth
00:38:46
government deficits over the next decade
00:38:48
and we don't really have a clear picture
00:38:50
yet of how those three things interplay
00:38:52
and they're all being hotly debated and
00:38:54
by the way there's High variability
00:38:56
they're changing dayto day every day
00:38:58
Trump's like this tariff that tariff
00:38:59
yesterday there's a whole bunch of
00:39:00
confusion on tariffs today there's a
00:39:02
whole bunch of like discussion on how
00:39:03
far the tax cut extension is going to go
00:39:05
in the reconciliation process and on and
00:39:08
on and on so TBD I encourage people to
00:39:11
use my 72-hour Rule and look at what
00:39:14
happens 72 hours after Trump says
00:39:16
something spicy because a lot of times
00:39:18
he's just he says a lot of things and
00:39:21
not just Trump like yeah but the house
00:39:23
and the Senate they both put forward
00:39:25
their their budgets right now they go
00:39:27
through this reconciliation process and
00:39:30
there's a lot in there that leaves a lot
00:39:33
to be desired if you're if you're a an
00:39:37
absolute like you know fiscal
00:39:39
conservative and you're trying to get us
00:39:41
to 3% deficit as a percent of GDP you're
00:39:45
like wait a second does this do enough
00:39:47
and the tax cuts are 4.5 trillion over
00:39:49
10 years so you know it's approximately
00:39:51
450 billion a year if you're trying to
00:39:53
catch up how are we doing tax cuts but
00:39:55
Jal remember you can't make those
00:39:57
statements as fact because a lot of
00:39:59
those over 10year projections are
00:40:01
projections based on someone's estimate
00:40:03
of the economic effect of the tax cuts
00:40:05
so there's also a lot of debate on that
00:40:07
which is hey some people are saying if
00:40:09
we make these tax cuts the economy will
00:40:11
grow faster than this particular the CBO
00:40:15
economists will estimate the CBO
00:40:17
economists are trying to be conservative
00:40:18
so there's a whole lot of debate going
00:40:19
on right now on like how much is this
00:40:21
really going to cost and people like oh
00:40:23
my God Trump is talking about raising
00:40:24
our deficit so much over the next decade
00:40:26
but then there's a different point of
00:40:28
view which is wait a second if you
00:40:29
assume that the economy will grow
00:40:31
because of these Cuts then that's
00:40:33
actually not true and then there's all
00:40:35
these wild cards around the golden Visa
00:40:37
card yeah we're about to get to that
00:40:39
yeah are the tariffs going to be a
00:40:40
trillion a year are they going to be2
00:40:42
trillion dollars of Revenue or no knows
00:40:44
it's just a negotiating position just a
00:40:46
negoti so no one knows yeah no one knows
00:40:48
so that that's my I think main point is
00:40:51
this uh this Administration is all over
00:40:53
the place you know and the cuts are
00:40:56
great but's right the B market tells you
00:40:58
a lot the fact that the has the 10 year
00:41:00
was was peaked at 5% two two weeks
00:41:03
before the election and then it peaked
00:41:05
again the second week of January at
00:41:07
4.78% now it's down to 4.26% today so
00:41:10
it's come down by a full half a point in
00:41:13
the last month which tells you a lot
00:41:16
about the expectations on inflation and
00:41:19
growth over the next decade and it's
00:41:21
actually a reasonable like sign that we
00:41:23
don't think there's going to be rampant
00:41:25
inflation over the next decade based on
00:41:27
some of the policy decisions and actions
00:41:29
that are being taken by this
00:41:30
Administration so I would say there's
00:41:32
some indication that if if you were to
00:41:34
kind of try and decode the Enigma of the
00:41:37
three things that we talked about are
00:41:38
going on you know it's generally kind of
00:41:41
deflationary to some extent or it's not
00:41:42
inflation are you optimistic just net
00:41:44
net Dave you optimistic about this next
00:41:46
foure period or not I'm honestly pretty
00:41:48
uncertain and I'm pretty unhappy with
00:41:49
both um the Senate and the house budgets
00:41:51
personally I don't think fat too many
00:41:54
Cuts I don't think there's enough action
00:41:55
in there I don't think that and it's
00:41:57
weird because you hear Elon talking to
00:41:58
all the members of the the cabinet and
00:42:00
he's pretty clear-cut hey we've got to
00:42:02
save this government is in a debt spiral
00:42:04
we have to fix this problem Yad yada and
00:42:06
then it's sort of like business as usual
00:42:08
which like I said when we were in DC
00:42:11
that was exactly my observation for
00:42:12
every Senator representative member of
00:42:14
Congress that we met with or that I
00:42:15
talked to at a cocktail party it was the
00:42:18
same it was like I got to get
00:42:20
this for my people that's the goal and
00:42:22
we've turned this Federated Republic
00:42:24
into a whole bunch of elected
00:42:25
representatives showing up in DC
00:42:27
scrambling and grabbing money for their
00:42:29
constituents that's what they were hired
00:42:30
and elected to do and it's a really
00:42:33
unfortunate circumstance that no one
00:42:34
looks out for the better interest of the
00:42:36
US dollar over time and says you know
00:42:38
what we've actually got a limitation on
00:42:39
us and that limitation should be less
00:42:41
than 3% deficit to GDP that's our budget
00:42:45
that's our Max budget and start from
00:42:47
there and then do a buildup yeah yeah I
00:42:50
mean chamath I think Collective action
00:42:53
aside you've been talking a little bit
00:42:55
about this I don't know if it was a
00:42:57
couple weeks ago you were tweeting about
00:42:58
the great reset Theory and there's you
00:43:02
know whatever that is the third or
00:43:03
fourth turning people have been talking
00:43:04
about you want to uh maybe encapsulate
00:43:08
your thoughts I think you have to figure
00:43:10
out
00:43:12
what the goal is so one goal is you
00:43:17
could say that the Republicans want to
00:43:21
have consistent political power right
00:43:24
that's a reasonable goal the Democrats
00:43:25
want that too right a different goal
00:43:27
would be to do what freedberg said we're
00:43:30
going to go and take the lumps because
00:43:32
we are going to defend the dollar and
00:43:36
The credibility of the United States
00:43:38
we're just going to make sure that
00:43:40
structurally it's sound and take the
00:43:42
pain that's necessary to reset that
00:43:44
could be a goal I think the reality is
00:43:46
something in the Middle where you can't
00:43:49
be in one camp and you can't be in the
00:43:51
other because I don't think you can get
00:43:52
anything done and somewhere in the
00:43:54
middle I think the thing that I have
00:43:56
been thinking a lot about is when will
00:44:00
somebody sniff
00:44:01
out
00:44:03
what the great Coalition is that
00:44:07
preserves political power whether that's
00:44:09
the Democrats or the
00:44:11
Republicans the reality is that you will
00:44:14
have a consistent majority if you get
00:44:20
three cohorts of people together cohort
00:44:23
number one are the people that frankly
00:44:25
don't have many assets and are the
00:44:27
working in Middle Class meaning they
00:44:29
don't necessarily own homes they don't
00:44:31
necessarily have investments in the
00:44:33
stock market so they don't particularly
00:44:35
care about what's happening there okay
00:44:38
that cohort dominates there was a clip
00:44:41
of
00:44:42
a discussion at Harvard just this past
00:44:45
week about the different political
00:44:47
coalitions that voted for Trump versus
00:44:49
kamla Harris the most important takeaway
00:44:51
that I took from it is that if you make
00:44:53
$100,000 or more a year you're a
00:44:57
reliable Democratic voter if you went to
00:45:00
college you're a reliable Democratic
00:45:02
voter everything else is a reliable
00:45:04
Republican voter but the thing to
00:45:06
remember is that bucket of everything
00:45:08
else is growing faster than that first
00:45:11
bucket so you have this Coalition of the
00:45:14
asset light working in middle class and
00:45:17
then you have other people patriotic
00:45:19
business people and patriotic business
00:45:22
owners and Technology people that care
00:45:24
about Innovation that Maga has been able
00:45:26
to into a
00:45:29
coalition my point is if that is the
00:45:32
consistent reliable thing that cements
00:45:35
political power multiple elections from
00:45:37
now and we've seen this before in the
00:45:39
past where Republicans can go on a
00:45:41
three-term run or you know a four-term
00:45:43
run Democrats have as well in the past
00:45:45
it is bad news for the stock market and
00:45:47
it is bad news for asset owners because
00:45:50
it doesn't reward the constituents back
00:45:52
to Freed Brook's point so if you are
00:45:53
going to feed your constituents and your
00:45:55
constituents don't own stocks and your
00:45:58
constituents don't own homes or they are
00:46:01
so wealthy that they can be inoculated
00:46:04
from a massive draw down in those asset
00:46:07
categories what do you think the winning
00:46:09
strategy
00:46:11
is that is my rough working version of
00:46:15
what
00:46:17
our version of brexit is right so if you
00:46:20
have many many years of austerity what
00:46:23
does it really result in I think if you
00:46:25
want to cement political power I think
00:46:27
it
00:46:28
requires a walking down of these asset
00:46:31
markets in a meaningful way that's
00:46:33
stocks and that's real estate and I just
00:46:35
don't see any other way around it
00:46:37
fascinating the good news is I think
00:46:40
from my perspective is but by the way
00:46:41
sorry last thing I would say that's a
00:46:42
total Theory and I could change my mind
00:46:45
as I get more data but I'm just saying
00:46:46
like I'm just trying to work through the
00:46:48
possibilities and in the distribution of
00:46:50
outcomes that's sort of where my heads
00:46:52
at right now I think it's like a good
00:46:53
mental model because politicians want to
00:46:55
stay in power how do they stay power the
00:46:57
populace has to want to continue to back
00:47:01
and they have to understand what backing
00:47:02
strategies that that reward asset owners
00:47:05
when asset owners are a shrinking
00:47:06
minority is not a good idea well there's
00:47:09
60% of the country own assets but 80% of
00:47:12
those assets are in the top like 10% so
00:47:14
it is definitely weighted heavily people
00:47:16
do have some I guess through their 401ks
00:47:19
in some cases and yeah 60% of people own
00:47:22
a home
00:47:23
61% but yeah I think it's a it's a good
00:47:25
framework the good news is if you look
00:47:27
at every time we have a great
00:47:29
technological Revolution whether it was
00:47:31
the iPhone or the internet now ai that
00:47:34
tends to make uh the most impact on the
00:47:38
economy and So based on what I'm seeing
00:47:40
on the streets entrepreneurship is on
00:47:43
fire right now no but that's not true I
00:47:45
think you're confusing that with how
00:47:47
certain people like everybody has an
00:47:51
iPhone that's true but you're the one
00:47:53
that's talked a lot about this a lot it
00:47:56
hasn't lived lifted average hourly
00:47:57
earnings that much in fact we've had
00:47:59
massive wage
00:48:01
suppression it has rewarded the
00:48:03
employees and the stockholders of Apple
00:48:06
or Google or meta but that's not
00:48:09
everybody well I'm talking more about
00:48:11
yes you're correct it does polarize the
00:48:14
win in apple shareholders right in the
00:48:16
case of the iPhone or Google in the case
00:48:18
of the internet but it does make the
00:48:19
entire populace more efficient and the
00:48:22
United States more efficient since we
00:48:23
LED both of those revolutions I I don't
00:48:26
I think it does I think it it benefits
00:48:29
supremely a small cohort of people
00:48:30
that's why the the denominator goes up
00:48:33
but does it affect individual people in
00:48:36
measurable ways on a broad-based basis I
00:48:38
think that's been statistically proven
00:48:40
is not to be true that's why we have the
00:48:42
populism we have today it's
00:48:44
disproportionately rewarded equi holders
00:48:47
that's
00:48:48
obvious and wage earners it you know
00:48:51
have not had the same escalation but I'm
00:48:54
talking about the United States and our
00:48:56
place in world and our economy when
00:48:58
compared to other countries so I still
00:49:00
think if we lead AI we will still have
00:49:03
the best standard of living the best
00:49:05
overall economy in the world but I love
00:49:07
his what do you guys think about the
00:49:08
golden Visa I love that golden Vis well
00:49:10
this is incredible because I literally
00:49:13
tweeted like six months ago you know we
00:49:15
should just sell citizenship for
00:49:17
$500,000 a pop and he added a zero I'll
00:49:20
give you prediction I'll give you a
00:49:22
prediction I will predict that within
00:49:24
the next few months after this gets
00:49:26
announced
00:49:27
you are going to hear about Founders
00:49:30
taking $5 million of secondary in a
00:49:33
round M to make sure that if they are
00:49:36
non-americans to get their visas 100%
00:49:39
hey uh check out this prediction Nick we
00:49:41
now have a poly Market to trade how many
00:49:43
gold cards Will trump sell in 2025 poly
00:49:47
Market ohk well done I I think what is
00:49:51
the what is the bet well so you either
00:49:53
can have zero okay you can have one to
00:49:56
100
00:49:57
100 to a th000 here's the the different
00:50:00
levels 1, 2500 25 5,000 so you can
00:50:03
basically buy the level that you think
00:50:04
there's an 8% probability right now in
00:50:06
poly Market that by the end of 2025
00:50:09
there will be zero of these golden Visa
00:50:11
sold 25% chance of 1 to 100 177% chance
00:50:16
of 100 to a th000 and so on the most
00:50:19
probable level is actually 2500 to 5,000
00:50:22
which is sitting at 29% probability
00:50:24
right now yeah I'm taking the I'm taking
00:50:26
the way
00:50:27
so what do you think this is by the end
00:50:28
of 25 Jal so you got to get they
00:50:30
basically have to get the pr they still
00:50:32
have to get this done they get the
00:50:33
program up and running and then people
00:50:35
by the so it's by the end of 25 is the
00:50:37
okay so people are really just betting
00:50:39
when can he get the first one done and
00:50:41
then yeah H how many does he get done
00:50:44
yeah I know I'm going to take the top
00:50:46
two I think I might take 5,000 and above
00:50:48
here will you put real money on that you
00:50:50
should do that oh you can't trade it's
00:50:52
not available to Americans but if there
00:50:54
was a way to do it I might do it this is
00:50:56
not uned by the way called the E5 which
00:51:00
I talked about on this where noncitizens
00:51:02
can invest a of money but it's a bit of
00:51:05
a scam I got pitched on it people said
00:51:07
oh we can get you LPS for your fund
00:51:09
here's how it works they invest in some
00:51:11
you knowy fugazi real estate thing you
00:51:14
have to you have to create 10 full-time
00:51:16
jobs is the yeah so there's a bunch of
00:51:18
scams going on about
00:51:19
this5 but I said as your president I'm
00:51:21
going to sell these citizenships and get
00:51:23
100,000 people to do 500k each right and
00:51:26
I said would sell like Tes Swift tickets
00:51:27
I I got to tell you I think out of the
00:51:30
gate Apple meta Microsoft buy you know
00:51:36
one to 10,000 of these so let's say you
00:51:39
were able to buy these and you could
00:51:40
swap them out like if somebody left and
00:51:42
went back to their country you could
00:51:43
still use it you still have the Visa
00:51:45
these would become incredible for
00:51:46
recruiting Talent if you got to get the
00:51:48
CEO of a company over here and you can
00:51:50
offer them that you could buy their
00:51:51
company is that how it's going to work
00:51:53
or is that is it going to be tied to a
00:51:54
person do you think we got two different
00:51:55
issues here one is is could you swap
00:51:57
these between another person we don't he
00:51:59
the president could make it like that if
00:52:01
they wanted to for corporations to give
00:52:03
them essentially what is a a season pass
00:52:06
that you could swap between users those
00:52:07
things exist in the world as a concept
00:52:10
so he could decide to do that the second
00:52:13
piece is how valuable they are are they
00:52:15
worth five million or are they worth a
00:52:17
million which which would sell the most
00:52:20
the way this is proposed by Trump and
00:52:22
letnik is it's $5 million for basically
00:52:25
a green card you get permanent residents
00:52:27
in the United States you get to live
00:52:29
here permanently yeah they're getting
00:52:31
rid of the E5 program after this that's
00:52:33
their proposal and so here's here's the
00:52:35
MTH let me ask you guys a question Jamal
00:52:37
jakal how many people in the
00:52:40
world have a net worth above a 100
00:52:44
million oh above a
00:52:48
hundred uh well we know that there are
00:52:51
like 5,000 four or 5,000 billionaires is
00:52:53
the estimate I think globally so a
00:52:56
millionaire well I think that there's a
00:52:59
lot there's a lot of hidden billionaires
00:53:01
so I would Russia and China even in
00:53:03
America I would guess that there's at
00:53:05
least 10 or 15,000 billionaires in the
00:53:07
world 100
00:53:09
millionaire and so then as a s probably
00:53:12
50,000 that's what I said 28,000 40% of
00:53:17
whom are in the US which means there's
00:53:19
17,000 who knows that number is real
00:53:22
come on yeah these these numbers are all
00:53:23
made up so I I you know how many Russian
00:53:25
oligarchs have $100 million
00:53:27
a l okay so whatever fudge Factor you
00:53:30
want 17,000 is the reported number of
00:53:34
100 millionaires outside the US do you
00:53:35
think that that's the cut off for people
00:53:37
that would spend five million and then
00:53:38
what percent of them would buy a US
00:53:40
green card for $5 million oh I think
00:53:43
people with 20 million who are overseas
00:53:45
in Venezuela or the Middle East would
00:53:47
spend 5 million on it if it was a path
00:53:49
to them becoming a US citizen you
00:53:51
advertise that over a lifetime you could
00:53:52
make twice as much money living here so
00:53:54
I think the numbers like if you had $20
00:53:55
million you would give 25% of your
00:53:57
current net worth to get into the US of
00:53:59
course you're going to buy a house here
00:54:01
worth 10 million and Donald Trump said
00:54:03
that you would not have to pay any tax
00:54:06
on foreign assets right right easy peasy
00:54:10
it's a True Green Card yeah that is real
00:54:13
no no no a real green card is what I had
00:54:14
which is your Global income is taxed
00:54:17
that's true so it's worse meaning the
00:54:21
green card is worse than this this is
00:54:23
way better so if if I had to do it again
00:54:25
and this was available to me out I'm not
00:54:26
sure million bucks I'm not sure there's
00:54:29
a million buyers I think there's
00:54:30
probably 10,000 Max buyers of this thing
00:54:33
is my take the over of 10 I wouldn't
00:54:36
take the over of a million I think
00:54:37
you're right on the Million number is
00:54:39
that what did Trump say he said there's
00:54:40
a million Market
00:54:42
Nick the most probable is 1 to 2500 I
00:54:45
think that's probably right but you
00:54:46
didn't ask total you ask in year one and
00:54:49
I mean you it takes six months to get
00:54:51
anything done this poll is this poll is
00:54:53
dumb the real question is how hard will
00:54:56
they be vetted because I think the point
00:54:58
is there's a lot of gray money around
00:55:00
the world so the question is can you
00:55:02
bring it into the light right so how
00:55:05
many like look I I know of many people
00:55:08
in India many who are extremely wealthy
00:55:12
in ways that we don't understand and
00:55:15
their wealth is literally like in cash
00:55:17
it's in Gold how are they supposed to
00:55:20
kind of like if they wanted to like
00:55:21
raise their family in America because
00:55:24
now it's possible how do they do that
00:55:26
how do they how do they take their
00:55:28
assets do you go to JP Morgan and all of
00:55:31
a sudden like you show them this golden
00:55:33
visa and they say great we're gonna if
00:55:35
there's a workaround to like the kyc AML
00:55:38
laws honesty freeberg you could sell two
00:55:40
million of these
00:55:42
things don't think so if you literally
00:55:45
have to go through the
00:55:47
existing set of Frameworks on like ofac
00:55:51
AML kyc all that stuff it's probably in
00:55:55
the tens of all I have to say is this is
00:55:58
one of the greatest proposals ever and
00:56:01
oh it's great it's fan freaking tastic
00:56:04
combined with Doge okay uh if he gets
00:56:08
this done if he gets do but I agree with
00:56:11
you by the way accredited investing done
00:56:14
if he gets those three things done I'm
00:56:15
voting for his third term we're going to
00:56:16
redo the uh Jason just explain to us
00:56:19
your your personal interest in
00:56:20
accredited investing what's the grift
00:56:22
connection I'm not sure I'm fully
00:56:23
tracking it's not a grift connection I
00:56:25
feel like there's a bunch of people
00:56:26
stealing money doing crypto scams and
00:56:30
that all of that would be solved If
00:56:33
people could just
00:56:34
take a test to become an accredited
00:56:37
investor which is like currently six or
00:56:39
s% of the country and then they would
00:56:41
understand diversification and you know
00:56:43
how different devices work convertible
00:56:45
debt whatever and if they did understand
00:56:48
that you could take people who are
00:56:50
gambling in the stock market and allow
00:56:52
them to invest in private Market
00:56:55
companies and I believe that would
00:56:57
create more this issue we brought up in
00:56:59
the last segment about poor people not
00:57:02
being able to become rich people and
00:57:03
upward Mobility upward Mobility could be
00:57:06
very easily hold on let me finish my
00:57:08
upward Mobility could be so much better
00:57:11
if a person who's in Uber driver or an
00:57:13
HR person working you know at a company
00:57:16
could put $500 $1,000 instead of betting
00:57:19
on the Nicks or the Jets God forbid they
00:57:22
could put that $500 into this new
00:57:23
product or service they're using
00:57:24
LinkedIn or this new product service
00:57:26
they're using and then that would allow
00:57:28
more startups to get created there are
00:57:30
so many people who contact me after
00:57:32
reading my book and say I want to invest
00:57:33
in startups they can't and I think they
00:57:36
would be so much better off putting a
00:57:38
$100 or $500 into a startup than just
00:57:41
wasting it at roulette great I'll take
00:57:43
the opposite okay goad and I'll tell you
00:57:45
why I think you're right it would be
00:57:47
great but they should buy the S&P they
00:57:49
should buy the SNP index proven scaled
00:57:53
audited profitable well vetted solid
00:57:56
fiduciary responsibility with public
00:57:58
board companies yep if you learn from
00:58:02
the the problem is most of these people
00:58:04
most people even smart VCS even
00:58:06
intelligent people make extraordinary
00:58:09
mistakes in the startups that they back
00:58:11
I don't think that we have a shortage of
00:58:13
startups I think we have a shortage of
00:58:15
good startups and I think but if you if
00:58:18
you flood the market with capital you're
00:58:20
going to see the same problem we've had
00:58:21
with every Venture Capital cycle or
00:58:23
every private cycle which is you get a
00:58:25
whole bunch of that gets funded
00:58:28
that shouldn't get funded that ends up
00:58:30
eating a lot of people's money and
00:58:31
unfortunately when people are less
00:58:33
sophisticated and they enter the private
00:58:35
investment markets they're not going to
00:58:37
necessarily be left well off they're
00:58:39
going to end up getting scammed in a
00:58:40
different way someone's going to show
00:58:41
some crazy fancy PowerPoint to them take
00:58:44
their money and they're gon to get eaten
00:58:45
up which won't happen if they buy the
00:58:47
S&P go ahead okay yeah so let me counter
00:58:49
all that they should buy the S&P sure
00:58:53
and they can do that today right they
00:58:54
can get a Robin Hood account 11% a year
00:58:57
perfect and that's the protectionist
00:59:00
paternalistic approach that we've had
00:59:02
what that doesn't do is it makes them
00:59:04
nice and safe and then their $1,000
00:59:06
becomes 1,70 next year and $150 the next
00:59:10
year great they learned one lesson the
00:59:12
rule of 72 in compounding interest
00:59:14
that's the only lesson they learn but
00:59:17
when you start betting on startups you
00:59:18
learn how entrepreneurship Works how
00:59:21
product Market fit works and so sure put
00:59:23
80% into index fund and put 20% into
00:59:27
investing in private companies they
00:59:29
would learn more and when Uber wanted to
00:59:32
give Uber drivers access to buying
00:59:35
shares they're not allowed to and so the
00:59:37
rich can buy whatever they want they can
00:59:40
make whatever bets they want they can be
00:59:41
a private Equity they can be in all
00:59:43
these things that have the chance to
00:59:45
100x to 10x but poor people can't all
00:59:48
I'm saying is if they're educated and
00:59:49
they take a course let them do take a
00:59:53
little bit of risk in an intelligent
00:59:55
fashion and let them learn about
00:59:56
entrepreneurship I grew up blue collar
00:59:59
and I didn't have exposure to how
01:00:01
private for company formation worked I
01:00:03
didn't understand any of this I had to
01:00:05
battle my way to learn all of it if you
01:00:08
had a course and people could go just as
01:00:10
easily as they go to prize picks which I
01:00:12
bet on every Knicks game and they could
01:00:14
go just as easily to prize picks as they
01:00:16
could go to coinbase as they could go to
01:00:19
a private Market company invest that
01:00:21
would be better for Upward Mobility so
01:00:24
you're right people are going to lose
01:00:25
money but they're going to learn what do
01:00:27
you think Jam settle the difference
01:00:28
between the two of us I think that both
01:00:30
are true I think that we're all much
01:00:33
better off just owning indices or at
01:00:36
least that was true I think the the
01:00:38
problem with these indices right now is
01:00:40
those are not really well balanced
01:00:42
indices because the rules have changed
01:00:44
and the rules have changed because these
01:00:46
companies have been smart enough to
01:00:48
Lobby folks like S&P and S&P has allowed
01:00:51
these thresholds to creep up and so now
01:00:54
when you're buying the S&P 5 00 you're
01:00:56
not doing that anymore you're buying the
01:00:58
S&P 7 and then the rest in the 493 is
01:01:03
you know 60% so if that's what you want
01:01:05
that's fine so we'd have to fix the ETF
01:01:09
Market to make sure that there was a
01:01:10
little bit more transparency and there
01:01:11
was more
01:01:13
balance but these weighted indices are
01:01:16
basically just the mag s that that's
01:01:18
neither good nor bad I'm just saying
01:01:19
that's what it is and so yeah and I'm
01:01:20
just saying it just creates the same
01:01:22
problem people think they're buying
01:01:23
diversification because you're like hey
01:01:24
go here and it's diversifi ands out not
01:01:27
not not even diversification just like
01:01:29
vetted like mature real companies versus
01:01:31
what I think will happen which we've
01:01:33
seen time and again with people that are
01:01:35
not sophisticated or experienced when
01:01:37
they first enter a new a new market any
01:01:39
Market is this process of adverse
01:01:41
selection which is you have predatory
01:01:43
practices predatory pitches that show up
01:01:46
and say invest in this it's a great deal
01:01:47
this is the new thing most people aren't
01:01:49
able to vet that thing and they end up
01:01:51
getting taken advantage of and that's
01:01:53
the problem they're getting taken
01:01:55
advantage of it every crypto thing right
01:01:57
now so all I'm arguing for is more
01:01:59
education and a path for those people
01:02:01
who want to do it to show 5 hours of
01:02:04
Education 50 questions that they have an
01:02:07
above average you know knowledge of how
01:02:09
private companies work just so they have
01:02:11
the choice to do that I think the
01:02:12
balance that PE we will have to strike
01:02:14
is there are a lot of people that are on
01:02:16
the outside looking in with no assets
01:02:19
and then second there are a lot of young
01:02:21
people who want the high alpha
01:02:23
opportunities yes like crypto represent
01:02:26
and so free it's easy for you to pull
01:02:29
the ladder up from under you because
01:02:31
you're already rich but for people that
01:02:33
are not rich and if you went back to
01:02:35
when you were poor the question is how
01:02:38
would you have reacted if somebody above
01:02:40
you basically said I'm going to tell you
01:02:42
what you can invest in and would you
01:02:45
have said okay that seems reasonable I
01:02:46
know you're looking out for me I that's
01:02:49
question don't disagree with that I
01:02:50
think there's a reason we have
01:02:51
Securities regulations and securities
01:02:53
laws that public companies have to
01:02:55
follow but private compan are more LAX
01:02:56
on that's that's where there's this
01:02:58
distinction so I don't disagree that's
01:03:00
not that's not what I'm saying I'm
01:03:01
saying when now that you're rich you
01:03:04
want rules for everybody else what I'm
01:03:05
saying true don't don't don't
01:03:07
mischaracterize me chamad that's not
01:03:08
true at all I'm obviously a free market
01:03:10
guy I don't give a poor people
01:03:13
invest in I'm not I'm pointing out the
01:03:15
consequence of what would happen I'm not
01:03:16
saying I disagree with the notion
01:03:19
to telling you what I think is gonna
01:03:21
happen Okay what I'm asking you is go
01:03:23
back to when you were poor how would you
01:03:26
react I would want to invest in
01:03:28
everything I'm not disagreeing with the
01:03:30
notion I'm pointing out what will happen
01:03:32
which is predatory ass will show up and
01:03:34
they'll rip people off that's what
01:03:36
happens in everyone of and if you're
01:03:37
educated that's why the education
01:03:39
component hits here you'll learn
01:03:40
something just like people are learning
01:03:42
right now to not bet on the jets ever
01:03:44
what do you think the solution is people
01:03:46
can lose their ass they just need to
01:03:48
know they're going to lose their ass I'm
01:03:49
just telling you that's what's going to
01:03:50
happen and then you know what's going to
01:03:51
happen next Elizabeth Warren's going to
01:03:53
get on TV and be like hey we got to fix
01:03:54
this put a bunch of no cares what poah
01:03:57
has to say that's how this goes I'm
01:03:58
pointing out this is what happens
01:04:00
markets yeah I agree with you that is
01:04:02
the cycle but what I'm saying is how do
01:04:04
we fix it then how do you allow people
01:04:06
that don't have assets to have assets
01:04:08
that work for them how do we how do we
01:04:10
do even as as you guys know we looked at
01:04:12
the data even the best Venture Capital
01:04:15
firms in Silicon Valley with the
01:04:16
smartest most sophisticated people
01:04:18
investing in private assets were not
01:04:20
able to beat the NASDAQ over years get
01:04:22
that's true what I'm saying is what you
01:04:24
were saying before this is I'm confused
01:04:25
what you were saying before is people
01:04:27
should only be allowed to invest in the
01:04:28
I didn't say that that is what you said
01:04:30
that's not what ICT what you said that
01:04:32
is what you said that is exactly what
01:04:33
you said I said here's what's going to
01:04:34
happen I said here's the consequence
01:04:36
predicting Doom got it yeah here's the
01:04:38
other possibility of what happens eBay
01:04:41
Etsy
01:04:43
Airbnb door Dash say to the people who
01:04:46
are part of their networks for every
01:04:48
hundred rides you do we're going to give
01:04:51
you $100 in shares for every hundred
01:04:53
night you book we're going to give you
01:04:55
,000
01:04:56
in shares of Airbnb and by the way you
01:04:58
can buy extra shares if you want to and
01:05:01
the government says you can spend up to
01:05:02
20% of your yearly income average for
01:05:06
the past few years on investing in
01:05:07
startups and then some number of people
01:05:10
who built those networks whether it was
01:05:13
Google's Network or eBay's Network or
01:05:16
Ubers or door dashes or were part of
01:05:18
Tesla some number of those people are
01:05:20
going to hit massive home runs and
01:05:21
they're going to move from the bottom
01:05:23
third to the middle third and then
01:05:25
number of those people are going to say
01:05:26
you know what I got really educated I
01:05:27
looked and I understood Tesla and I
01:05:30
understood Uber so now I'm going to bet
01:05:32
on this AI self-driving company and I'm
01:05:34
going to bet on this other company that
01:05:35
makes robots and delivers you know vetos
01:05:39
and the entire group of people in our
01:05:40
United States is going to get more Savvy
01:05:42
about entrepreneurship and capital
01:05:44
allocation that's a good thing I think
01:05:46
what's going to happen is not much of
01:05:47
anything I think the rules are going to
01:05:48
stay exactly where they are in favor of
01:05:51
the top 10% because I think this
01:05:52
argument between the two of you is
01:05:54
exactly the reason why it can never
01:05:56
change and I think that that now again
01:05:59
so then what is the alternative maybe it
01:06:00
comes back to what I said before which
01:06:02
is then the only alternative left is
01:06:04
just to debase assets and then if you
01:06:06
debase assets and make them much cheaper
01:06:08
then there's less money theoretically to
01:06:10
lose per Quantum of investment so maybe
01:06:13
that's that's the right way to think
01:06:14
about it we got to get more people
01:06:15
owning equities in this country that's
01:06:17
just high order bit because if you feel
01:06:19
like you have more agency in your life
01:06:22
and you're just smarter and savier
01:06:24
that's the American dream and we've lost
01:06:26
the American dream to your point in the
01:06:27
earli segment month half the country
01:06:29
doesn't feel like they can ever get into
01:06:31
the top half they don't feel like
01:06:33
they'll ever be able to buy a second
01:06:34
home or even a first so you have this
01:06:36
helplessness of one group of people who
01:06:38
are like I need a handout and the other
01:06:39
group of people are like got any stock
01:06:41
tips where are you making money what can
01:06:44
I place a bet on we're sitting here at a
01:06:46
rigged game we all get to play in one
01:06:48
casino and then everybody else gets to
01:06:50
work in the casino I just want the
01:06:51
people work in the casino to be able to
01:06:53
place some bets and maybe become owners
01:06:55
in
01:06:56
businesses hey you know I I think
01:06:59
talking about the US Postal Service is
01:07:01
interesting it turns out Trump is going
01:07:04
to issue an executive order to dissolve
01:07:06
the leadership of USPS and the postal
01:07:10
service is going postal about this in
01:07:12
some ways uh not literally but they're
01:07:14
angry about it and they want to observe
01:07:17
the absorb the agency into the executive
01:07:19
branch uh just so you know post office
01:07:22
has been operating for 250 years Trump
01:07:25
plans to fire the governing board and
01:07:27
place the agency under the control of
01:07:28
Commerce lutnick Commerce and for
01:07:32
contacts US Postal Services lost $10
01:07:35
billion last year on 80 billion in
01:07:38
Revenue they can't figure out how to
01:07:39
just make a simple profit margin or even
01:07:41
break even and IT employs
01:07:44
635,000 workers by the way Howard did an
01:07:47
interview with Fox News yesterday where
01:07:49
he said one of the ideas that he went
01:07:52
back to the president with was for the
01:07:54
postal service to the census which would
01:07:57
save 4 billion a year give him another
01:08:00
idea which is I think that non-farm
01:08:02
payrolls and
01:08:04
GDP that data should be collected by
01:08:06
USPS as well because they touch every
01:08:09
business you can actually get instead of
01:08:11
sampling with all this error and all of
01:08:14
this craziness that we have there has to
01:08:16
be a way for then all of these feet on
01:08:18
the street to get us much more accurate
01:08:20
information so that the markets can
01:08:22
actually function properly I am
01:08:24
surprised
01:08:26
that we don't see even more dramatic
01:08:29
revisions and that probably again is
01:08:31
like errors on top of
01:08:33
Errors I really don't trust like you
01:08:35
know you showed the GDP data or you
01:08:37
showed the unemployment rate Jason no we
01:08:38
all know this stuff is crazy it's wrong
01:08:40
I just don't know how wrong it is yeah
01:08:42
and this is where Stripes data might
01:08:43
come in handy uh I I did a tweet about
01:08:46
this and it's one of the most popular
01:08:48
tweets or controversial I got three and
01:08:49
a half million views here without an
01:08:50
Elon retweet or anything I had a very
01:08:53
simple concept here Postal Service goes
01:08:55
down down to one time a week easy peasy
01:08:57
once a week there's nothing coming in
01:08:59
the PO US Postal Service that's that
01:09:01
important two all citizens starting next
01:09:04
year have to opt into getting postal
01:09:05
mail by paying $1 a year so you got to
01:09:07
sign up for it you got to give them a
01:09:09
credit card or something I'm
01:09:11
thinking 80% of people don't even bother
01:09:14
because it's all flyers and garbage
01:09:16
anyway and what people don't know
01:09:17
because I was in the magazine business
01:09:19
and I knew all about this we had a
01:09:21
magazine rate a media rate and all these
01:09:23
marketers have they subsidized so this
01:09:26
is the ultimate marketing and Publishing
01:09:29
grift magazines newspapers anybody uh
01:09:33
Publications advertisers catalogs they
01:09:35
pay nothing and I think they should just
01:09:37
double or triple the rate or remove any
01:09:39
discounts uh and then take all those
01:09:41
buildings chth put them into the new
01:09:43
Sovereign wealth fund redeploy the
01:09:45
buildings get some money out of that
01:09:47
give every postal work or two-year sance
01:09:49
or you know whatever graduate it down
01:09:52
full full year Severance half year
01:09:54
Severance quarter year severance you
01:09:55
retrain them and uh just let the private
01:09:57
markets handle this what do you think
01:09:58
jamtha my suggestions there was a tweet
01:10:00
from this woman who got leak some data
01:10:02
uhhuh from one of her friends or
01:10:05
colleagues in the government where they
01:10:06
broke down I think seven or eight leases
01:10:09
and real estate things that were
01:10:10
happening inside of I think it was
01:10:12
Veterans Affairs
01:10:13
maybe the numbers are just astounding
01:10:17
yeah half the office bace is not being
01:10:19
used the other half is being
01:10:20
underutilized it's Bonkers Bonkers
01:10:23
they're going to be able to sell 75
01:10:25
percent of the stuff so anyway you know
01:10:28
don't blame me here but I think it's
01:10:29
like a really good opportunity our guy
01:10:31
Jeff Bezos come on the Pod Jeff sit in
01:10:33
the uh sax chair one time that'd be fun
01:10:35
to have him on he's making some big
01:10:37
changes at the Washington Post he's lost
01:10:40
a fortune running this thing and um it
01:10:43
seems like he's getting engaged and in
01:10:45
founder mode dare I say he uh posted to
01:10:48
his X account and he emailed everybody
01:10:51
that the editorial page is going to be
01:10:52
run differently he said
01:10:55
uh that while newspapers once had a
01:10:57
mandate to publish opinions from the
01:10:59
broadest possible Spectrum the internet
01:11:00
now mostly covers that he said I'm
01:11:03
confident that free markets and personal
01:11:04
Liberties are right for America I also
01:11:06
believe these viewpoints are underserved
01:11:08
in the current market of ideas and news
01:11:10
opinion so he's going to focus on those
01:11:12
two pillars personal Liberties and free
01:11:15
markets this seems awesome and I could
01:11:18
get into why it's brilliant on a
01:11:20
publication basis but I'm just wondering
01:11:23
what your thoughts are with him getting
01:11:24
more engaged with the publication that
01:11:26
he was incredibly hands off with I was a
01:11:28
little surprised that he wrote this I I
01:11:30
I think that if you want to write about
01:11:32
personal
01:11:33
Liberty one of the tenants of personal
01:11:36
Liberty is Free Speech but he's
01:11:37
effectively said that
01:11:40
certain opinions aren't allowed anymore
01:11:43
I don't think that that's the solution
01:11:44
to the Washington Post so I all I think
01:11:47
it does is it polarizes the readership
01:11:49
even more I looked yeah inside of Google
01:11:52
Trends the overwhelming majority of wapo
01:11:54
readers are in obviously Washington DC
01:11:57
and then Maryland and Virginia Which are
01:11:58
the two surrounding states so I think
01:12:00
it's very much a Beltway paper I think
01:12:02
he's trying to have a direct influence
01:12:04
on the ideas that folks inside the
01:12:06
Beltway read and so in as much as he's
01:12:08
the owner he's allowed to do it but I
01:12:11
wasn't a fan of that idea because I
01:12:13
think I think the Elon plan is much
01:12:15
better here's a fire hose go at it you
01:12:18
have to find the
01:12:20
people despite all the conspiracy
01:12:22
theories I don't think he suppresses
01:12:24
free speech in the least in fact I think
01:12:25
it's a literal free-for-all inside of X
01:12:27
it is a free-for-all I we got Nazi
01:12:29
Diamond pendants coming from Kanye the
01:12:32
difficulty in X which I think will be
01:12:34
the next set of features that he'll have
01:12:35
to figure out is how the curation
01:12:38
happens yeah where you're curating I'm
01:12:42
curating other people are curating how
01:12:44
can then for example like when I go to
01:12:46
an account that I like there's no easy
01:12:48
way where I can Mass follow a bunch of
01:12:50
their the people that they follow as an
01:12:52
example right I can't just copy it I
01:12:54
can't sort of start with a profile those
01:12:56
are all these things that allow you to
01:12:58
just take on all kinds of opinions right
01:13:01
away and filter from there I think that
01:13:04
that is a really useful
01:13:06
feature so I don't know I I didn't think
01:13:08
that if I was the owner of Washington
01:13:10
Post I would have been even more extreme
01:13:12
on the Free Speech part I would not have
01:13:14
sanctioned speech so it's an interesting
01:13:18
point you know newspapers historically
01:13:19
always had a point of view they picked
01:13:21
as side Fox obviously MSNBC now and
01:13:23
cable news picked aside
01:13:25
this will make the publication I think
01:13:27
by picking a side and saying hey here's
01:13:29
what we stand for this is our belief
01:13:30
system I think it'll just make it viable
01:13:32
in one way and you're right he wants to
01:13:34
have a certain influence that's why
01:13:36
people buy these things that's why
01:13:37
they've historically owned them and uh
01:13:39
they have a point of view and the idea
01:13:41
that it didn't have a point of view
01:13:42
previously was probably a mirage that
01:13:46
some people felt there was like some OB
01:13:48
objectivity but I I like it I like him
01:13:50
being more engaged in it and uh
01:13:52
tightening it up all right four the
01:13:54
sultant of science
01:13:56
cha our sick friend the comedian get
01:13:59
well soon we can't wait to have you on
01:14:01
it's going to be a hilarious time and
01:14:04
for David saaks who's very busy the
01:14:06
Rainman in Washington DC saving the
01:14:09
world I am the world's greatest
01:14:11
moderator and we will see you next time
01:14:13
byebye love you
01:14:14
[Applause]
01:14:16
byebye let your winners
01:14:18
ride Rainman
01:14:23
David and instead we open Source it to
01:14:25
the fans and they've just gone crazy
01:14:27
with it love queen
01:14:30
[Music]
01:14:36
of Besties
01:14:39
are my dog Tak
01:14:41
[Music]
01:14:43
driveway oh man
01:14:46
my we should all just get a room and
01:14:48
just have one big huge orgy cuz they're
01:14:50
all this useless it's like this like
01:14:51
sexual tension that they just need to
01:14:53
release somehow
01:14:58
[Music]
01:15:00
we need to get
01:15:02
mer
01:15:05
[Music]
01:15:09
all I'm doing
01:15:12
[Music]
