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E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!

November 04, 2020 / 02:59:58

This episode covers the live reactions to the election results, discussing Donald Trump's unexpected performance, betting markets, and key states like Pennsylvania and Georgia. Guests include David Friedberg, David Sacks, and Chamath Palihapitiya.

David Friedberg shares his observations on the early election results, noting how Trump's odds shifted dramatically in the betting markets. He emphasizes the significance of early voting and the unexpected turnout in key states.

David Sacks reflects on the parallels between the current election and the 2016 election, highlighting Trump's rallies and the enthusiasm of his supporters. He discusses the potential implications for the electoral landscape based on the results.

Chamath Palihapitiya joins the discussion, providing insights on the impact of lockdowns and the cultural divide in America. He emphasizes the need for a new social contract to address the frustrations of voters.

The episode concludes with a focus on the uncertainty surrounding the final results, particularly in battleground states, and the potential for a divided government moving forward.

TL;DR

Live reactions to election results reveal Trump's surprising performance and implications for key states like Pennsylvania and Georgia.

Video

00:00:00
hello everybody welcome uh we are live at the all  in headquarters and the all in podcast is now live  
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we have 63 people watching already and bear  with us while we get the besties on the  
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line i'll be doing my introductions  in just a moment after i tweet this  
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but it is an eventful night and  we had to start early because
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it's looking like this could be another  shocker and i am not uh being facetious here  
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i am not uh happy about this obviously but  uh trump looks like he's been underestimated  
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again this is not a blowout um we are going  live early um this could be a shocker folks  
00:00:59
okay so uh with me early on the pod is regular  david friedberg uh david you're watching this  
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early action and what's your early uh reaction  to what we're seeing um you know trump's moved  
00:01:18
we there's no nothing definitive yet but uh he's  moved uh in the results and he's moving markets  
00:01:24
we're seeing forex markets show a sharp indication  um that trump has a real shot at winning here  
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treasury markets and as phil hellmuth will share  with us betting markets as well so it's more it is  
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more of a nail biter um than a game seven of the  warriors cavs so here we go there's a hell of an  
00:01:50
ale biter guys and i'm just gonna say this uh the  uk markets had it first they he was five to two  
00:01:56
uh you could you could get trump at five to  two two and a half to one then it hit five to   four and i thought that was quite crazy you're  watching cnn you're watching these networks and  
00:02:05
they're saying oh my god biden's winning this no  they're not even in the right neighborhood i'll   never watch a network again on election night and  now the market from five minutes ago 368 million  
00:02:16
pounds wagered 368 million pounds trump is now  a three to ten favorite okay so for people who  
00:02:26
uh phil who are not gamblers if you bet that's  three thousand dollars you bet three dollars  
00:02:33
no no jason you have to understand if you bet 13  okay you don't get 13 back you only get uh 10 back  
00:02:40
okay now if you want to bet biden it's  seven to four so if i bet seventy dollars   uh if i bet forty dollars  i can get seventy dollars  
00:02:49
back on biden now the shocker is right around 6  28 p.m uh the betting odds the markets were have  
00:02:56
been in biden's favor for three straight months  i've been live posting them on my twitter all day  
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the worst i saw was uh was trump was a was biden  was minus a dollar 25 still a big favor to win  
00:03:09
and then boom and uh you know there are people in  my house that are actually crying uh you know i'm  
00:03:15
very more much more in the middle of this thing  but all of a sudden uh trump all of a sudden it  
00:03:20
was five to four then it was even and then all of  a sudden trump was nearly a a two to one favorite  
00:03:26
i'm getting live information from my friends  right now um i'm seeing that uh that it's uh  
00:03:33
it's a little bit lower on some of these sites um  i saw 267 that's for a 200 bet so he's a pretty  
00:03:40
big favorite um i saw the lowest i've seen is 217.  but jason if you're watching the odds and i put  
00:03:46
some stuff on my twitter it's amazing how it went  from you know minus 1.70 you know all the way down  
00:03:53
minus the 30 then it came all the way up to minus  1.70 this is crazy and and i've seen this movie  
00:04:00
before in 2016 actually okay so we all know  that you need 270 electoral votes to win  
00:04:08
and that there were a couple of states that were  critical uh for trump to win uh and it seems like  
00:04:14
those states that trump was critical to win um  he has now won so let's bring in david sacks uh  
00:04:25
david we just turned on the live stream and boy is  this a turn of events that i don't think any of us  
00:04:32
except for maybe you but you were very pessimistic  on the last maybe three or four all in podcasts  
00:04:39
you're watching these results come in the betting  markets have totally flipped to trump what are   you seeing and what can we expect tonight what are  you looking for yeah i mean it's looking just like  
00:04:49
a 2016. i mean you're right that i was looking  at the polls in the last few pods that we've done  
00:04:56
and there was no way to say anything other than  you know trump was the uh was the underdog but  
00:05:03
at the same time i still thought that um trump  had a really good shot because i was watching  
00:05:10
both candidates on youtube all the time they both  were doing live events i wasn't watching it with  
00:05:16
the commentary i wasn't watching the clips i was  watching trump do these rallies i was watching  
00:05:21
biden do these parking lot events and i would see  trump do four or five events a day flying from  
00:05:28
tarmac to tarmac on air force one having  these huge crowds i saw him do this event in  
00:05:33
butler pennsylvania over the weekend it looked  to me like there was tens of thousands of   people there um and i remember trump saying  a line like you know this doesn't seem like  
00:05:43
a second place crowd and you know it's one  of those trump lines but you know it did put  
00:05:49
in my mind this idea you know he's got a point  um whatever the polls say we're seeing tens of  
00:05:55
thousands of people show up at these events who  are fanatical i mean just fanatical for trump and  
00:06:02
so you always had to think that he had a chance  of pulling off an upset just like 2016. i will  
00:06:08
say what i said on our text earlier donald trump  ate the covid virus and killed it with his body  
00:06:16
and then he stood in front of the white  house and ripped his shirt off and let us   all know that he is our leader he did not get  elected he claimed victory beginning in 2016  
00:06:27
and he has not and will not let go since then  and i think it is that cult of personality  
00:06:34
that um cultural personality draws so many people  in that are just um you know feeling like they  
00:06:42
need change and they need leadership and they  don't need something from the old school and  
00:06:47
he uh he stood up and he showed us that this whole  thing is it's a fake covet is a fake government is  
00:06:52
fake the people are fake the media is fake i'm  getting some late numbers i'm getting some late   numbers here you guys um he's now at minus 1.59  to win pennsylvania and they took every other  
00:07:03
number off the board however if you're a biden  person jason the number is only 2.17 right now  
00:07:12
um so uh oh wow the polls are posters were  miles off on this and this is just amazing  
00:07:22
and it seems like from what we're hearing from the  reporting is that the pollsters did not understand  
00:07:27
uh the latin or i guess latin x is a way to  describe um a group of people who actually don't  
00:07:35
think exactly the same i've always had a a weird  um understanding of this term latinx which seems  
00:07:41
to come from the woke left but cubans puerto  ricans mexicans these are different countries  
00:07:48
they're not all the same venezuelans venezuelans  the this is not a monoculture uh just because  
00:07:54
they all speak the same language and we're seeing  something very different happen in florida right   now where male uh cubans maybe are voting very  differently than what pollsters expected uh bestie  
00:08:06
chamoth is now fresh off a tight haircut and he's  here on the pod hear me uh we've got bestie phil  
00:08:12
as our first bestie guestie of the night bestiep  how are you best dp shamath you and i we shouldn't  
00:08:19
talk about this this is about politics but you and  i were just filming high stakes poker in las vegas  
00:08:24
on friday night it was great to see you bestie  is there any indication you can give us besides  
00:08:31
i mean of course there's a presidential election  that is going to determine the future of humanity   but more importantly how did you each do  in the high stakes poker game the biggest  
00:08:40
the biggest the biggest part of the night was  around 400k maybe 500k played between me and dir
00:08:51
yeah and he won he did not win  the hand oh my lord won that one
00:09:00
and uh it was i think it was beautifully  beautifully played i think doug polk will  
00:09:05
definitely do a short video clip on it uh i did  a i did a very uh very sneaky three bet pre-flop  
00:09:13
turn check um river over bluff and got him to call  oh my lord a little set bomb i'm guessing but here  
00:09:22
we go uh jason i can't wait uh since i'm here to  promote promote promote everything i promote uh  
00:09:29
you can only watch these episodes of high stakes  poker a lot of players favorite show you can only  
00:09:34
watch them on the poker go app they're coming out  december 16th meet you moth phil ivey tom dwan  
00:09:40
ben lam a lot of your a lot of your heroes take  it away oh well can't wait can't wait to uh   and i have a subscription to that all in um i'm  sorry the poker go app it's it's well worth it  
00:09:50
uh david sachs you have one of your i'm recording   friends on the pod why don't you introduce uh  one of your consulting friends and and uh we'll  
00:10:00
have him tee up what we think the possible  scenarios are and where we're at right now  
00:10:05
at this very moment it is 657 in california yeah  so michael newman works for me as a researcher and  
00:10:13
um he's uh as a political scientist i guess you  could say and i've known him since college and  
00:10:19
he's very uh steeped in these uh a lot of these  races i don't know if he's yeah i have been  
00:10:25
obsessively following politics since uh the reagan  election of 1980 so i i i i wasn't alive then so  
00:10:34
no i'm afraid i'm uh i was only 10 but i was  already uh a political obsessive and as you can  
00:10:41
imagine a real hit with the ladies as well so tell  us what what are the key states we need to focus  
00:10:48
in on here and which one of them uh have enough  reporting for us to sort of put them in a column  
00:10:56
and then move on and understand the path to  victory for trump or biden yes well i mean uh  
00:11:03
depending upon which network or news organization  you're following they're either calling calling   a lot of states or they're being very  conservative about their calls i mean  
00:11:12
nbc has still not called florida for trump but  there's really no path for biden to win that state  
00:11:19
uh so you can put that safely in the trump column  he has just taken the lead in north carolina after  
00:11:24
trailing all night we got about 88 of the vote  in now and i suspect he's home free as is the  
00:11:31
republican incumbent senator there can i can i can  i just can i just ask a question i mean isn't it   typically the case that the counts from the  most populous urban areas come last and those  
00:11:45
tend to skew more democrat than republican that  sometimes happens uh it depends on the state
00:11:53
some states have their rural areas come in last  one of the things that has changed the vote in   north carolina is as the early vote came in as  the in-person early vote and mail-in ballots came  
00:12:04
in the last counties that reported that early  vote were the rural counties that's why early  
00:12:10
on it looked very good for biden and now it looks  like uh it's trending away from him wait a second  
00:12:17
north carolina according to the  new york times and according to   cnn right now is favoring slightly biden 49.7  to 49.1 percent for trump with 84 percent  
00:12:32
i don't think that's i don't think that's  quite current i think they're up to about 88   but again yeah it's very close what's  interesting is uh biden had five potential  
00:12:43
states where he could have knocked trump out  florida georgia north carolina ohio and texas  
00:12:53
yeah florida's off the table the others  are still on the table but none of them   are trending biden's direction at the  present time so he uh yeah so far trump is  
00:13:05
is staying in the hand as uh as you poker  players would would say he's uh he's  
00:13:10
uh he's getting the cards he needs to stay in  the to stay in the game uh but we still have the  
00:13:15
river to play and the river would be in this case  michigan wisconsin pennsylvania texas had an early  
00:13:22
lead for biden which was crazy to see right now  it's got donald trump at fifty point three percent  
00:13:29
buying at forty eight point three percent  guys again so that's starting to normalize   i i i go back to this one very critical thing the  reason why michigan wisconsin and pennsylvania  
00:13:38
right now are trump is because you count the when  the county is counted you can pass the votes and  
00:13:44
you can report and if you have 25 000 people in  a county versus allegheny county which has like  
00:13:51
i don't know hundreds of thousands or a  million plus people it just takes longer   yes no i listen i don't characterize michigan  wisconsin pennsylvania at all i think one of  
00:14:01
the reasons why michigan right now looks so red  is because they're counting today's vote first  
00:14:08
a lot of these other states that like florida  that had the option because their legislature   allows them to do this they counted all that early  vote in advance and they dumped it in one big pile  
00:14:20
as soon as the polls closed in the in the various  counties so that's why you saw early on a blue  
00:14:26
mirage there what you're seeing in a place like  michigan right now is probably a red mirage  
00:14:32
because it's it's today's vote which was going to  skew trump uh because of the because of the way  
00:14:39
he presented it to his people he uh florida  was the one state uh thank goodness for his  
00:14:44
uh sake that he encouraged people to vote early  and by mail in the other states he encourages  
00:14:51
people to vote today so here's a here's a stat in  pennsylvania i'm on the um secretary of state's  
00:14:57
reporting dashboard they've counted uh only  12 of the mail-in ballots um which is and the  
00:15:05
total mail-in ballots is 2.5 million yeah um  which is huge right and they've only it should  
00:15:11
be a majority of the vote i would imagine yeah  yeah and they've only and they've only counted  
00:15:17
24 actually sorry they've only yeah they've only  counted uh a handful of precincts at this point
00:15:28
a quarter of the precincts right so  here's something i don't understand so   uh nick carlson from uh was it like business  insider he just tweeted um minutes ago that  
00:15:42
north carolina biden is ahead with 99 of  the vote counted and biden has a less than  
00:15:48
0.2 percent lead but it's 9 000 votes but that i  mean that's that would be a huge problem for trump  
00:15:57
north carolina listen i think a loss in any  of those five states florida georgia north   carolina ohio or texas is probably by the  way guys i just want to give a shout out to  
00:16:06
nothing who's listening here all the way from  sri lanka he's listening he just texted me okay  
00:16:11
by the way guys right now the odds are three to  one on the betting market so i mean obviously  
00:16:17
the networks i realized are completely useless i  stopped watching them a long time ago when they   had biden way ahead in florida and the odds  were ten to one against right now if you want  
00:16:26
to bet trump is a three to one favorite on and  there's been billions of dollars bad in england  
00:16:31
australia all over the world he's a three to one  favorite it looks like it's real to me and just a  
00:16:37
and just a just to build your side of the case  uh nasdaq futures ripping s p futures falling  
00:16:44
and the 10 and 30 year falling remember ripping  these are all pro-trump trades and the euro the  
00:16:50
euro collapse the euro dollar falling uh falling  sharply once the markets turn towards trump well  
00:16:55
here's what they're reacting to is wisconsin  michigan and pennsylvania trump is all up   big time now but again that lacks a very basic  understanding of how county reporting is happening  
00:17:06
in these highly populous you know or these  sort of sort of these these uh bimodally  
00:17:11
distributed states where they have a bunch of  suburban and rural vote that's fast account and  
00:17:17
the big places for example like you know you're  not going to see milwaukee and green bay report   until probably close to midnight so the question  is why are the betting markets so pro-trump then  
00:17:27
what do they know that we don't know i will say  this let me say this jason i mean if you're like  
00:17:33
they're you're talking about billions of dollars  right and so all you had to do was design a system  
00:17:38
to figure out how to calculate votes earlier  and make a couple hundred million dollars okay  
00:17:44
these are the smartest people in the world  there's hundreds of millions of dollars   billions of dollars at stake they obviously  do it ten times better than any other site  
00:17:52
than any other network so this information i mean  i give a friend of mine posted hey i'm laying two
00:18:07
somebody knows something that we don't know while  trump just on bovada trump just moved to minus  
00:18:12
600. yeah he just took michigan unbelievable uh  it looks like he's ahead in michigan but again  
00:18:21
we have to see detroit and there's there's a bunch  of places in michigan let's let's let's let's the  
00:18:27
north so here's the north carolina secretary of  state dashboard and they're showing uh two-thirds  
00:18:33
of the counties and you can actually see by  county when you go onto their their dashboard   the um you know the larger counties are partially  reported most of the smaller counties are fully  
00:18:45
reported um 63 total with um you know biden  ahead by literally a thousand votes right now  
00:18:54
across 2.522 million to 2.521 million wow but  what percent reported is that i mean uh it's 63  
00:19:05
of the counties have completely reported and  so the remaining counties if you look at the  
00:19:10
reporting status the remaining counties that are  partially reported there's a mix of rural and  
00:19:16
some of the urban counties you know durham's in  there partially reported uh so there is a mix it's  
00:19:23
not durham should be a biden county the research  triangle is uh upscale well-educated professionals  
00:19:30
that i think are the the backbone of the democrats  uh coalition in a state like north carolina  
00:19:37
now they have um absentee votes that are  counted and they have so far counted 3.3 million  
00:19:47
absentee one-stop votes and a million votes by  mail but that's how many came in it actually  
00:19:54
shows that only five oh i see yeah okay that  makes sense trump trump is now ahead in ohio  
00:19:59
two thirds two thirds of the votes post the link  into the zoom chat so nick can pull it up on the   screen please um i i need to get an understanding  of something very basic here for the audience  
00:20:10
who's not degenerate gamblers are is there a  chance here phil and chamath gambling experts both  
00:20:18
that people had put early money on biden and are  now covering or hedging some of those bets is  
00:20:26
that a possibility here yes okay jason jason  the line is minus a dollar minus four ten on  
00:20:32
pinnacle right now let me just double check that  source so what what phil is saying jason is like   yes there's going to be a bunch of essentially  covering now that covering will swing the line  
00:20:43
but i think what phil is also saying is when  a line moves this violently literally what   we've seen in the last 35 minutes is both  the equity markets the currency markets  
00:20:55
and the betting markets flip 180 degrees  from where they have been not just all day  
00:21:02
but frankly where they have been probably  for the last few months that's what i was   saying for three months straight uh right now  biden has been a favorite anywhere between  
00:21:12
three to one favorite at one point all the  way to maybe you know 50 favorite and all of a  
00:21:18
sudden today the lowest i saw was a dollar 35 and  i was kind of shocked and the next thing you know  
00:21:24
boom trump's a three to four to one favorite so  and and i'm looking at cnn and i'm looking at  
00:21:29
these networks and they're still they still abide  in the head and i'm like wow what is going on   they're waiting that's that's the next thing we  need to take care of jamal there's a business  
00:21:38
for you is somehow we can deliver the right  data on elections quickly there you go sex  
00:21:44
yeah well i think the betting markets know  something we don't know because um trump is  
00:21:50
just you know if you look at like the live stream  on twitter or the new york times or something   trump just slightly took the lead in ohio but  that's the state he's supposed to win in north  
00:22:00
carolina it looks like with over 99 reporting it  looks like he lost by 9 000 votes by the way a 9  
00:22:06
000 margin would probably trigger an automatic  recount of north carolina and there's like a  
00:22:11
hundred thousand absolutely ballots there  i don't know if those have been counted yet   okay so let me let's put let's pause for one  second on this everybody north carolina is  
00:22:20
one of the four or five states trump has to  win in order to have a victory right michael  
00:22:26
i i absolutely agree with that uh he had to have  those five florida north carolina georgia ohio and  
00:22:31
texas okay so we have florida he's got now there's  four left there's four left georgia's a very slow  
00:22:37
counting state we really don't know all of atlanta  could be out for all we know so we leave georgia  
00:22:42
on the side so now we've got four states we can  work with north carolina is in biden's pocket by  
00:22:48
just a hair yeah that could change and it would  trigger a recount which would take days to weeks  
00:22:56
yes another three states let's go through them  systematically one by one michael okay uh ohio  
00:23:02
uh was the biggest surprise of the night when  biden built an early lead there although again  
00:23:07
a bit of a blue mirage based upon uh the  fact that the mail-in vote and the early   vote came in so strong for the democrats  this year uh because they emphasized it  
00:23:16
and the republicans kind of fought against it  but michael michael with 49 of the vote in ohio  
00:23:23
okay he had a right now biden had a massive lead  and he had about a 400 000 vote lead would have to  
00:23:28
be correct and when you look at the betting odds  he was five to one underdog to win the state so   something doesn't add up there and you  can you can say all right some of that is  
00:23:36
all the early voting went for biden we know that  to be a fact but there's something else there  
00:23:42
okay i'm just looking at the uh results for ohio  we'll stay on ohio for one more moment and then we  
00:23:49
have another guest who just jumped on ohio is  currently showing donald trump with two point  
00:23:56
rounding it up 2.4 million votes to 2.2 million  slightly rounding up for joe biden 52 to 47 with  
00:24:05
78 reporting does that mean we feel comfortable  with trump uh winning ohio unless all of cleveland  
00:24:15
is outstanding i would say that's a trump state  yeah okay we now have john cohen on the line  
00:24:20
john is a uh member of the survey monkey team  john welcome to the all in pod can you hear us  
00:24:28
thank you so much i i'm sorry i didn't hear what  was going on i don't i don't know how much you've   been disparaging pollsters so far um so we  were waiting for you we're waiting to get here  
00:24:39
tell us as we start what your prediction was  earlier today well we're very clear to say that  
00:24:47
we're doing measurements not predictions okay that  said the measurements that we are doing clearly   pointed to biden advantages across the board but  we didn't have we so far we have no surprises  
00:24:57
you know we had florida had been trump plus two  basically all week going to dead even um you know  
00:25:04
coming into election day itself we don't know  where the final votes will be most analysts think  
00:25:09
that it's in trump's camp it may end up there but  it's super close we had georgia close we had north  
00:25:14
carolina close although and north korea had been  closing it had been a big biden lead it was down   to under two points um with the senate you know  kind of even closer than that in some of our data  
00:25:24
so you know so far there's no obvious surprise  here like damn the polls were really wrong   certainly ours you know it's our it's early though  we're not declaring victory on those obviously  
00:25:33
there's a lot to watch but nothing really to  surprise um you know us given the numbers so far  
00:25:38
what about ohio and georgia so we had ohio pretty  consistently in trump's camp we had him up four  
00:25:45
so it's trending that way now we had as close  as two points for trump i mean again i haven't   mentioned the word margin of error that's in my  professional obligation and duty to mention it  
00:25:55
it's around three points i believe two and a half  in ohio so close but we always had it in trump's  
00:26:00
camp again biden that wasn't part of biden's  you know any of the past the victory that the   campaign was counting on so you know no big deal  but we went from having a early night to now we're  
00:26:12
for sure in for a really late night here  john um let me ask you the one of the   most basic questions that i've had which  is what did we learn from 2016 and tell  
00:26:21
me what exactly did people try to fix like  what was the thing that everybody got wrong  
00:26:28
and what changed well the biggest thing that polls  fixed was how they adjust their polls by education  
00:26:35
what we see in polling no matter how they're  conducted whether online as we do a surveymonkey   or still on the telephone which most media posters  do is you get people with more formal education to  
00:26:45
answer those surveys in far greater proportions  than you do people with lower education   so the biggest thing you've got to do and we'll  look we always did it so we weren't in the  
00:26:53
among the state pollsters who kind of failed i  think um you know kind of negligently to really  
00:27:00
adjust by uh education at all we always had just  education but we what we failed to notice in 2016  
00:27:06
was there was an increasing gap between those  with postgraduate degrees and those with bas  
00:27:11
they've always been both to pro-democratic  group but the gap in 2016 was abnormally large  
00:27:17
a fix to our polls which i just point out weren't  you know kind of were actually standouts in the   in the upper midwest in terms of showing it  as a close race not clear clinton victories  
00:27:26
we broke apart post grads and grads into  two distinct categories and that released   kind of about a point and a half of unforced  air in our polling for 2016. so that's fixed  
00:27:36
we've used it to good effect again this time  around we weren't showing what all the other   national polls were showing we've had this between  a four and six point national lead again we'll get  
00:27:46
quickly into why national results don't matter but  you all know that all too well everyone knows that   all too well but we've had it kind of more narrow  and that plays out in the states that i mentioned  
00:27:54
we had florida tied not a 4.5 and five point five  and it vanished elsewhere you know but we'll see  
00:28:00
how it plays out in the midwest we also had  wisconsin what was our final margin there i   think it was you know kind of nine and nine and a  half points not the 17 points that you saw from my  
00:28:09
former colleagues at the washington post and abc  news so we've always had it a little bit tighter   but again it plays how it's going to play  out in these states and so far no surprises  
00:28:17
but the night is early and i'm i have  a healthy dose of pulsar's paranoia   jamal i don't know if that answered your question  well enough but that was the main thing people did  
00:28:25
it's really helpful but now take off your poster  measure you know chief research officer hat for a  
00:28:31
second and put on just the american hat um what  does it mean when you know we had effectively  
00:28:40
a repudiation of the establishment in 2016 and  despite everything that's happened over the last  
00:28:46
four years we may be on the brink of another  repudiation again if you you know where you're  
00:28:51
there to measure the pulse of what's going on  but less in sort of measurement speak and just  
00:28:58
more in just plain american english speak john  what like what's going on if this happens again  
00:29:06
see you're absolutely right there's something  major i would also like to caveat it we are   looking once again at if trump wins is because of  the electoral college like he is going to lose the  
00:29:16
popular vote there are still far more americans  and american voters who voted today and you  
00:29:21
know kind of over the past several weeks who would  prefer joe biden to be president so again we can't  
00:29:26
characterize with the broad brush the american  voting population when this is about effectively  
00:29:32
i hate to call it a quirk but this is about our  system of vote tallying and the president you  
00:29:38
know to pull back your point about kind of there  is something major here the fact that many people   you know some of us might be friends with can't  understand why this isn't a hundred to zero race  
00:29:47
fail to understand that the president's base  isn't small it is you know we've had it 44 to 46  
00:29:54
approving of his job performance for many years  now like he has a completely durable solid floor  
00:30:01
he also has a high ceiling right so he was never  going to win the popular vote this time around   but he had a chance at that electoral you know  squeaking out another electoral college win  
00:30:09
because he's been so stable you know this is the  president who you know kind of oh trump now had   an nc thank you for uh the chat window so i think  you're right that we need to understand more about  
00:30:19
what is the componentry of that 45 percent that  they would support trump when the other 55 percent  
00:30:26
are so deadset against him and see it as something  really wrong with the country so we still have two  
00:30:31
countries no what have you guys done to  though understand the people that are voting  
00:30:39
for trump better because i think that they  are protesting and they're protesting a lot  
00:30:46
and i think that you know if we didn't listen to  them 16 i think it's almost criminal to not listen  
00:30:53
to them in 2020 so what are they what are they  saying what are they rejecting or what is it that  
00:30:59
they want because at the end of the day you know  i think his incompetence can't really be debated  
00:31:05
competence versus incompetence i think what we can  debate is he's a vessel and in that i think that   it's incredibly important what's happening  irrespective of what happens today because  
00:31:14
we were supposed to walk into a landslide we're  not as you said we're going to be in a nail biter  
00:31:20
what is what are what are they using him as a  vessel to communicate to everybody else that's  
00:31:25
a really good question some of that will depend  on you know a closer analysis of the surveys ours  
00:31:30
where we talked to more than a million voters and  the exit polls are being deducted by two separate   organizations today but what's the what are the  story lines that come out of the election you  
00:31:38
know one of the things that's being reported early  is there's a much tighter hispanic vote in florida   than many early polls you know predicted how  will that play out as we start to get votes you  
00:31:46
know coming out in texas how is it being arizona  see arizona looking positively for um biden and  
00:31:52
mark kelly in the senate you know in arizona you  know is it is it really hispanic votes that are   driving some trump strength in these states or you  kind of visit the obsession that the news media  
00:32:02
has had for the past four years around the kind  of trump middle-aged white male voter with less  
00:32:09
than college education who has been displaced by  you know technological and industrial trends over  
00:32:14
the past 20 years i think it's going to depend on  what that voting coalition looks like for trump   and it's more diverse than i think we've been  focusing on before i think i think you're saying  
00:32:23
an incredibly important thing i think that that  was a ruse and i've always thought that that was   [ __ ] it's not some undereducated rube that's  running around voting for this guy um i think  
00:32:33
that there are there are people up and down the  the age spectrum the socio-economic spectrum  
00:32:39
and this is what i mean by he has become  a vessel for so many different messages  
00:32:45
and i think we really have to start figuring  out what the hell these messages actually mean  
00:32:51
because um if biden loses to your point maybe in  florida it's a repudiation of socialism okay but  
00:32:59
in pennsylvania it's going to be something else in  michigan it's going to be something else in ohio   it's going to be something else for him to keep  winning right um and and i just don't think that  
00:33:08
there's a consistent idea and it's very dismissive  to say that i'm not saying you are but i'm saying  
00:33:13
you know that idea that it was an out-of-work  ex-factory worker you know in rural ohio that was  
00:33:20
protesting this is going to be much bigger than  that because even if biden wins the popular vote  
00:33:26
until we figure out how to rebalance balance the  electoral college in a completely you know new way  
00:33:33
or just get rid of it all together we're going to  have to live with understanding how some folks in  
00:33:40
these extremely pivotal states um are pushing back  are they pushing back on political correctness you  
00:33:45
know that's one thing that i've always thought  i think that there's a huge vote here against um
00:33:58
i think those are the under reported uh lockdowns  are the i think the biggest one of the biggest   drivers no go ahead john go ahead john i was gonna  say one of the components here that we have to pay  
00:34:07
a lot of attention is gender right kind of  you know the storyline for a long time and   and you think about you know kind of republican  democratic politics is that you know you talk  
00:34:15
about black voters and hispanic voters talking  about them as if they're monoliths what we have   seen consistently over the course of the year  is that trump does much better among black men  
00:34:26
and hispanic men than he does among black women  and latinas and that is just kind of like you know  
00:34:32
whereas black women are 95 5 you know he nears 20  among black men it blends into the what we've the  
00:34:38
90 10 we've already seen look but look these these  are measurements these are measurements i don't  
00:34:44
think they're telling you the whys of anything and  i think for the wise you have to go a lot deeper  
00:34:50
i mean first of all let's let's talk about the  lockdown issue can we just pull up that tweet nick  
00:34:55
i mean so this is what i said back in may this  was like months ago before the election even hit  
00:35:01
you know which is if the woke left insists on  permanent lockdowns trump will have an issue   that supersedes the incompetence of covid response  because i think you know we all we all agree on  
00:35:10
that which is whether our lives and livelihoods  belong to politicians to meter out and drives  
00:35:16
them drabs as they see fit and this was back when  elon was being shut out of his factory in fremont  
00:35:23
and then there was this hairdresser named shelly  luther in texas who was basically um put on trial  
00:35:31
for opening up her hair salon and the the judge  wanted her to to grovel and beg for forgiveness  
00:35:38
and this was the beginning of the rebellion  over lockdowns and it was so obvious back then  
00:35:44
that lockdowns weren't going to fly they weren't  sustainable they were too politically unpopular  
00:35:49
um they weren't going to work and and by the way  if it was something a cause that the left agreed  
00:35:55
with like you know a blm rally or something  like that then you were allowed to do it you   know it was that whole standard around um  you know doing things that were essential  
00:36:04
and so you know this insistence on lockdowns  even after the public had really repudiated  
00:36:11
them i think was a major issue for for  trump and it was crazy to me that biden  
00:36:16
was still insisting on lockdowns you know  still i mean that is his official position  
00:36:23
um i don't think it's the only reason why he's  in trouble right now but i think it's a big one   i think if he if trump reaches the blue wall  again of michigan wisconsin and pennsylvania  
00:36:32
lockdowns is the biggest reason why because those  are three states that had extensive and still have  
00:36:38
extensive lockdown it hurts it hurts people  i'll here i'll read you a tweet and i won't   name who it's from it's from a farmer in um in the  corn belt who's well followed on twitter believe  
00:36:50
it or not there's a whole ag twitter community  and he says well it's the day does this country  
00:36:56
turn down the road to be like venezuela or  do we continue on the road of capitalism   and um he's had this acute um feeling that he's  kind of vocalized on twitter for for months now  
00:37:08
on how painful the locked lockdowns have been on  him and his family and his business and on the   community and uh it just feels like overreach  to a lot of people that the recognition that  
00:37:19
um you know the left might be using to justify the  decision is just not there that the the impact the  
00:37:24
near-term impact that folks are feeling is what's  there and that's driving a lot of behavior right   now boys all markets are now up everything is  green dow futures s p 500 futures nasdaq futures  
00:37:37
oil is up gold is down and there were some guys  that made some heavy bets against the dollar  
00:37:42
going into this thinking we were going to have  massive inflation with biden policy coming up and   some big fund managers that went really big on  on shorting the dollar this last week um and  
00:37:52
the dollar is up right now yeah the dollar by  the way we should we should make sure at some   point tonight to talk about these very important  senate races because it's not just trump versus  
00:38:02
biden that there's also a bunch of hitler taking  luber one in colorado again luber one in colorado  
00:38:09
but there have been some you know some of the  republicans who look to be in big trouble like   lindsey graham have uh have pulled it out  and have won and um so it's looking like  
00:38:19
the senate is still very much in play i  would say as big a favorite as biden was  
00:38:24
the senate shifting from republican to democrat i  say that was considered as equally big a favorite  
00:38:32
and that that may not happen now so we should  make sure to talk about that at some point   north carolina right now is 49.8 percent  to 49 for biden 2.6 million versus 2.58  
00:38:45
ohio is at 2.4 to 2.2 51 52 to 47 trump is beating  biden i um i have a question for john cohen john  
00:38:56
um let's go back to um sort of your understanding  as you've been measuring different trends have you  
00:39:03
measured um people's sympathy towards lockdowns on  a state by state level and then second question is  
00:39:11
have you measured people's sympathy to cancel  culture at a state by state level and by the  
00:39:17
way you're on mute so if you want to just take  yourself off yeah thank you we have not done   anything on cancel culture we've done a lot on  the coronavirus we've been tracking that actually  
00:39:26
in three countries since uh mid-february and we  have a state-by-state look and what's interesting   is we ask the question like this is primarily an  economic issue or a primary health issue and those  
00:39:36
two have been running neck and neck but healthy  kind of more people on average say it's a health  
00:39:41
issue than an economic one trump with trump's  supporters overwhelmingly say the crisis is one   that's financial not health related so there's  always been that but it's been like a 45 55 gap  
00:39:52
there so we've been measuring it state by state  but there's a solid core of people and it gets to   david's point about why what are they focused on  what is the what is affecting them and their you  
00:40:01
know pocketbooks it is the you know lockdowns  and the kind of clamping down and what is this  
00:40:07
economic crisis not a health care one even though  that's what we all say that they should follow  
00:40:12
there was there was a there was a fantastic line  that the democrats coined which essentially said  
00:40:18
something to the tune sexy poo you'll tell me  if i get this wrong but it was socialism for   the rich and rugged individualism for the for the  rest of us is essentially sort of their grab bag  
00:40:29
phrase for um for this election cycle and sort  of to frame a lot of policies but when you have  
00:40:36
in these states again if we say this cuts along  socioeconomic lines but then maybe bleeds into um  
00:40:43
college and even you know uh  graduate level educated folks  
00:40:48
is there a vote here for um rugged  individualism and just leave me the [ __ ] alone  
00:40:55
there certainly could be i want to go back to what  david said about measuring versus the why because   i mentioned gender to point out a big difference  that we're seeing across racial groups across the  
00:41:05
levels of education but i'm you know we're polling  every day so you guys have the right why question  
00:41:10
you know send it to me you know sent to xander  we'll we'll ask it you know we pulled 9 000 people  
00:41:15
today on you know kind of their willingness  to accept the results and so we'll be putting   that out tomorrow we have a we'll have an  exit poll running uh every day from here on  
00:41:24
to certainly until we get a result so  if you have the question you want to ask   send along we'll we'll get to the data at  the state level all right john we very branch  
00:41:32
appreciate you coming on the pod and uh we will  be checking surveymonkey's amazing data as we go  
00:41:39
um i'm going to switch now and just john john  thank you and xander thanks for do for hooking  
00:41:44
that up thanks john thanks guys and we'll have  some more bestie guesties coming up some fan   favorites from the twitter and the poker group  i just want to point out right now that it's  
00:41:54
very interesting to see that fox has biden at  129 electoral votes and trump at 109 and um  
00:42:05
some of the other networks have it much lower  how do the networks make these decisions  
00:42:11
of when to call a state because it's too early  according to many to call florida but we're  
00:42:19
sitting here with a pretty clear understanding of  where florida is at does anybody have any thoughts  
00:42:24
on that of well i think they're erring on the side  of extreme caution because of the strange year  
00:42:31
that it is and the fact that there is all this we  had a hundred over 100 million votes banked early  
00:42:37
through the mail or through early in-person voting  and nobody sure how many more mail ballots there  
00:42:44
according to one side i looked at there were still  27 million ballots outstanding now some of those   are redundant ballots like david's father-in-law  who got three ballots in the mail in pennsylvania  
00:42:55
and a lot of those are probably going in the trash  but there could be another five to ten million of   those to come in that are postmarked by today  many states will accept them after the election  
00:43:04
as long as they're postmarked by election day so  they're probably being very very careful that they  
00:43:10
don't make a premature call of course they all  have ptsd about what happened in 2000 when they  
00:43:15
first prematurely called florida for al gore then  prematurely called it for george w bush and we  
00:43:21
spent the next 37 days trying to figure out what  the hell happened in florida so uh i think they're  
00:43:26
going to err on the side of extreme caution across  the board although uh i feel like the margin in  
00:43:32
florida at this point is feels insurmountable now  right that's florida florida's over florida's over  
00:43:39
it's about now it's about it's about ohio by the  way the betting markets have just moved again big  
00:43:45
time so donald trump was at minus 600 now he's  minus 250 on bovado phil what do you think about  
00:43:51
that yeah he's snapping back i will say let me  let me address what jake jason was talking about   a few seconds ago and that's it you know basically  florida even the new york times had them at at 6  
00:44:03
00 p.m at 95 percent to go to trump at 95 that was  a new york times site my wife and i looked it up  
00:44:10
and the batting odds had him at over 10 to 1.  this was at 5 30 this was two hours ago so i  
00:44:15
mean i just think there's a huge inefficiency  with with the way i think it was over as   soon as the miami-dade dump showed that biden  only won the early vote by nine points i mean  
00:44:24
hillary won by 29 in 2016 and she lost the state  so how much of this do we think has to do with tax  
00:44:34
policy people in florida are retiring we have  the aoc gang we have come on elizabeth florida  
00:44:44
it's his beloved state he has a place okay  so so hometown favorite mar-a-lago i get that  
00:44:50
but you have so many retirees and we we have  this bifurcation of how taxes should work in  
00:44:56
the united states so i just want to open  that up for the entire group to discuss   of art are we seeing old people are we  seeing people who are concerned about taxes  
00:45:06
because we have had a flight in the last couple  of years of people from high tax states to low  
00:45:12
tax states is this about taxes do you think let's  start with you friedberg no one wants to pay taxes  
00:45:19
the [ __ ] like no one's gonna raise  their hand and say i want to pay taxes
00:45:25
but i mean there's a moment where taxes don't  matter if well but romney romney was in favor  
00:45:32
or taxes and he you know he didn't win any  any of these elections like the way that  
00:45:40
trump looks like he's going to i think that  the the traditional republican messages message  
00:45:45
of taxes is sort of necessary but not sufficient  trump obviously brought a whole set of issues that  
00:45:54
previous republicans hadn't had abroad and i  think that you i think you have to look at 2016  
00:46:01
separately from 2020 and so starting with 2016 i  think the big issue that trump that no republican  
00:46:09
really had ever figured out except maybe pat  buchanan 20 years ago was the trade issue with  
00:46:14
china you know we forget that in the 1970s when  the great chinese economic reformer deng xiaoping  
00:46:22
decided to open up the chinese economy the  average chinese was making two dollars a day   and today their economy is is roughly the size  of the us now you know what was the reason for  
00:46:32
that well we had a bipartisan consensus in this  country for 30 or 40 years on the part of both  
00:46:39
clinton's and both bushes that we should you know  open them we should welcome them with open arms   and we opened up our market to chinese products we  brought them into the world trade organization but  
00:46:50
but that was the start that was the start of that  was the the killer app or the killer issue that  
00:46:55
trump figured out and that's what shattered  the blue firewall in those rust belt states  
00:47:00
i mean if you're going to try and figure out  going back to 2016 why trump won you have to   explain why he won michigan so you're saying our  jobs they took our jobs but what i'm saying the  
00:47:11
manufacturing jobs went out and the fentanyl  came in i mean that's his argument and um that  
00:47:16
was a killer argument i mean and the proof is in  the pudding it's the proof is that he won these   states that hillary thought were so in the bag  that she didn't even bother to campaign there  
00:47:26
so that was the big surprise at 2020 and the issue  of taxes well no no no let me explain what's going  
00:47:33
on in 2020 in my opinion okay this is not a  partisan explanation but i think that after  
00:47:39
the loss in 2016 look in business we know that  when you lose when you make a mistake you make  
00:47:46
a bad investment or the company does something  wrong you analyze what you did wrong right and   then you figure out what changes to make the  democrat party did not do that what did they  
00:47:56
do they blamed facebook they blamed it on russian  interference they never really analyzed why they  
00:48:02
lost these rust belt states and made changes  instead what they began was this hysterical  
00:48:07
denunciation of trump um you had this sort of  um you know you sort of had this this sort of  
00:48:14
um you know media culture uh tech uh industrial  complex who decided that trump was a an  
00:48:24
illegitimate president and you know and so what  they did is they went all in on impeachment they   went all in on this russia stuff and in the  process they created this enormous backlash  
00:48:34
and i think that 2020 if 2016 was an economic  repudiation of the elites 2020 is a cultural  
00:48:42
repudiation of the elites that is the big  issue in 2020 yeah i uh i tend to i tend to  
00:48:48
i'm sympathetic to david's view i don't  completely agree with all of it but um   just to build on something you said i don't  think jason this has anything to do with taxes  
00:48:57
um i think that in florida the if we if we end  up really getting to the bottom of what happened  
00:49:05
i think there's a lot of people um older people  that probably lived through some version of  
00:49:10
mccarthyism and immigrants who actually fled  really shitty totalitarian countries who were like  
00:49:16
you want to do what here and i think that  there was a lot of people that basically  
00:49:23
are giving a very clear signal which is i'm  a democrat but if you push me to the brink  
00:49:28
and talk about a socialized nanny state i'm going  to vote republican so to david's point i totally   agree to david's point if there was an economic  repudiation of sort of traditional globalism  
00:49:41
in 2016 and donald trump ends up carrying  the day and today then it's a repudiation of  
00:49:48
sort of these cultural manifestos and norms  that we're swinging to now the the answer  
00:49:54
to that may be to say change the electoral  college because it doesn't represent the  
00:50:00
majority or the plurality of americans i hear that  but in the same way that you know we've said for  
00:50:06
years now that the republicans will have to change  to win the electoral college or to change to win   what's evolving in terms of people's perceptions  on social policy uh it may actually be the  
00:50:18
democrats that also have to change if this  doesn't swing hard back in biden's favor so and  
00:50:24
chamath when you when you make that statement  i think what's particularly prescient is the  
00:50:29
democrats believed that because of the demographic  shift from white americans to people of color  
00:50:37
latinos black americans that they were just  going to win all of them this is this is the best  
00:50:44
this is the problem with the stupidity of the  establishment like if you take a thousand brown  
00:50:50
people and put us in a room what i will tell you  is just in case here's a [ __ ] memo for all you  
00:50:55
white people out there we're not all the god  damn same okay and if you put a thousand black  
00:51:01
people here's the memo now for the democratic and  the republicans they're not all the same you can  
00:51:08
take a thousand hispanics and it turns out they're  not all the same so maybe you know you can take a  
00:51:14
thousand straight people a thousand gay people  they're we're not all the [ __ ] same so maybe  
00:51:20
what this means is that we've moved past color  and now ideology and social policy and economic  
00:51:26
and monetary and fiscal all of these things that  the totality of how a rational well-developed  
00:51:35
makes person decision maybe that's at hand and  before if we historically only thought you know   older white men and white women could do it maybe  now it actually applies independent of color and  
00:51:44
gender yeah i absolutely agree with that and i  would add to that that um uh if if trump's victory  
00:51:50
in 2016 laid waste to the republican establishment  if he wins again tonight it will lay waste to the  
00:51:55
democratic establishment and the theory of the  case that they've had for 20 years the sort of uh  
00:52:01
chair uh emerging democratic majority case that  they just had to sit back and let demography  
00:52:08
become destiny and they could just graft an  identity politics onto the same neo-liberal  
00:52:15
economic agenda they've been pushing since the  late 1980s and it would all just somehow magically   produce majority results in the country they are  going to have to go back to the drawing board and  
00:52:25
and i think get more populist themselves and come  up with some kind of version of politics that is  
00:52:32
isn't it it's more in the bernie mold it  needs to be left but not woke isn't it going   to be socialism it's it probably is going to be  socialism but it doesn't mean that it's not like  
00:52:41
if you lay waste to the center you know you're  left like i mean that's basically what happened  
00:52:47
to the republicans and now if you're saying  the same is going to happen with the democrats   this time around you're going to have  aoc running for president in four years  
00:52:55
and i mean she won't be the right brand though  because she's woke you guys you don't need uh  
00:53:01
aoc we need a charismatic democratic candidate  somehow sharon brown keeps getting elected in  
00:53:07
in increasingly red ohio as a old-school gravely  voiced irish labor democrat and somehow bernie  
00:53:15
ignited a movement as a very old-school uh  gravelly voiced jewish democrat neither of whom  
00:53:22
gave a damn about identity politics really they  were principally concerned with inequality and  
00:53:28
uh income redistribution i uh i wanna i don't  wanna see that happen but i think that's the   only path forward for the damage hold on let's let  me go to phil because phil had something he wants  
00:53:37
to add there and then we'll go to youtube yeah i  wanna say that we needed for the democrats and uh  
00:53:42
they just needed to i think they needed a very  they needed a charismatic powerful leader with   a lot of charisma i mean i know that you know the  i was hanging out with one of the trump guys that  
00:53:51
was with him on the plane in the 2016 election he  said that you know he outworked hillary there's  
00:53:57
no doubt that he outworked biden i mean this guy's  going to seven rallies a day um showing up with a  
00:54:03
ton of energy and he has you know like iran he has  a lot of charisma also i can't help but think that  
00:54:09
you're talking about repeating repeating  repudiating sorry i'm getting that word wrong um  
00:54:15
to me this is all about i think a lot of people  are really scared of socialism okay and i think  
00:54:22
it's just like even the young people  that you know even the young people   you know who say that they love it they're looking  at their path to the future and and with and you  
00:54:32
know they can they can still do great things  there's no doubt you can still be a 20 year old   and and make a billion dollars by the time you're  30 or 40 and i think with socialism that goes away  
00:54:43
i think that um look i uh i i think if trump  does win um i don't think what it means is that  
00:54:53
you need a a person that's at the extreme left  to win i actually counterintuitively would say  
00:55:00
the ob the opposite which is that you need just a  more credible centered person now that may only be  
00:55:08
possible if the democratic party cleaves in two  and the reality is the republicans may actually  
00:55:13
quasi cleveland ii independent of whether  trump wins or not anyways and we'll see as   david said how some of these senate seats break  because if that goes in a different direction  
00:55:23
you know for example if trump wins but we have you  know a democratic tie in the senate maybe that's  
00:55:29
not possible um but um i think that would say  a lot around um the need for pragmatic but more  
00:55:38
youthful leadership okay i want to go around  the horn right now what is your gut telling me  
00:55:44
who is going to win given what we know right  now everybody give it a thought uh when you're  
00:55:50
ready look into the camera and i will call  on you michael you're looking into the camera   who's gonna win if you had to pick one right  now michael give us your best guess with this  
00:55:59
podcast because that would tell me a lot but uh  uh i increasingly think trump is going to win  
00:56:07
okay phil you're looking in the camera who do you  think's gonna win we've seen this movie before  
00:56:12
um except that hillary was actually five to one  favorite last time and i watched these numbers go  
00:56:18
straight up and now i'm watching the same thing  it seems like although i will say this uh you  
00:56:23
know saks has been posting some stuff within  our channel about the numbers popping up and   down i'm getting texts and they are popping  up and now but still the lowest i've seen is  
00:56:31
2.5 to 1 i think trump wins trump wins who do  you got sax well i'm going to assume the betting  
00:56:38
markets know something um i'm still a little bit  unclear on north carolina um because i saw some  
00:56:46
tweets that fein had wanted by a few thousand  votes but the um the the north carolina website is  
00:56:53
showing um that actually trump's ahead about like  70 000 votes so i'm not sure who to believe um  
00:57:02
and uh well yeah look i'm gonna i'm gonna go i'm  gonna i'm gonna go with what the bad markets are  
00:57:08
saying which is trump and um you know i thought  that he i thought he had a much better shot  
00:57:14
than the polls were reflecting and that's what  it's looking like what do you got for you berg
00:57:21
donald trump took on coronavirus for us he killed  it he is our true leader and he will prevail  
00:57:30
here in the united states of america tonight at  least the betting markets are telling me and the   treasury markets and the s p futures are telling  me that donald trump's gonna win but i do think  
00:57:40
that the fact that this guy has never conceded  defeat to anything in his life gives him a huge  
00:57:45
leg up and he uh you know he's he is like steve  jobs he warps reality and he tells everyone i  
00:57:52
am going to win i have killed coronavirus and it  happened um wait like a jedi knight it's like a  
00:57:59
jedi yeah all right four or four so far picking  at uh exactly 7 45 p.m california time chamath  
00:58:09
who do you have at this point if you had to shove  your chips all in uh i still think the path is um  
00:58:17
um uh i um i think it's biden and i have the  advantage of some information which is that  
00:58:27
they just announced breaking news they aren't  counting mail-in votes in philadelphia tonight  
00:58:34
and i am going with so so we don't know  uh pennsylvania tonight so if it's down  
00:58:42
to a few thousand votes philly i think is  gonna break i think you can count that as   three or four hundred thousand votes yeah and  if oh it should be it should be five hundred  
00:58:51
thousand it should be five hundred thousand well  then five hundred thousand would carry the state   for joe biden yeah they've been they've got so  a hundred thousand so they've got so i'm gonna  
00:59:00
i'm gonna stick with biden here because  i think that uh that philadelphia   vote count is uh crucial it turns out that  it may it may come down to philly by the way  
00:59:10
what an incredibly poignant place for the election  to be won and lost the city of underdogs the city  
00:59:18
of rocky uh i i think we can safely say that biden  is going to win the popular vote and it might be   by four points five points which means that there  is a discrepancy uh between the popular vote and  
00:59:29
electoral college we're going to hear a lot about  that because uh i i am going to go with bison  
00:59:35
because my heart is going to be so broken this  country picks this sociopath to run it for  
00:59:44
another four years after his absolute failure  to content to do even the most modest things  
00:59:53
to battle coronavirus and the strife he has  caused between americans and his personal style  
01:00:01
is so heartbreaking to me that i don't  know that i can believe in america  
01:00:08
if they put this absolutely sociopathic  person who has the least amount of character  
01:00:14
of any other human being anybody on this call has  ever met in their lives it would be a complete  
01:00:21
absolute utter disgrace if he makes it into  office for a second term what do you really exist
01:00:30
hold on it's an existential threat to the entire  planet and humanity and democracy across the world  
01:00:38
if this country puts that maniac into office  again for four goddamn [ __ ] more years i'll  
01:00:44
make up for that's my personal feeling i can't i  don't care what the statistics say right now in my  
01:00:51
heart i cannot give that man even a benefit of the  doubt if he wins garbage if he wins is fouchy the  
01:00:59
first guy fired oh i think you can count on it and  challenge you and christopher ray the fbi director  
01:01:06
and right and increasingly maybe bill bart too  and somehow bill barr is not enough for the sync  
01:01:12
shred of credibility or honor is gone i wanna i  wanna just say to to jkl i um i really empathize  
01:01:22
with how you're feeling because i have never as a  person that has been a citizen of three countries  
01:01:29
when i moved to america in 2000 i have never  really i mean you know edge cases yeah i've  
01:01:34
felt some racism here obviously you know i've but  i've never felt so unwanted and i remember 2016  
01:01:44
for the first time in my life feeling a level  of insecurity i had never felt before because i  
01:01:49
was so afraid i didn't know what it meant for  donald trump to be elected four years later  
01:01:55
um you know in in so many ways uh it's like two  realms of a coin you know um i leave my house and  
01:02:06
uh you can just see that there's just so much pain  and divisiveness i come back into my little world  
01:02:12
and things seem to be really great and that's a  really really terrible feeling to have jason so i  
01:02:20
i know exactly what you're talking about i wanted  to tell you guys um you know i there was like a i  
01:02:26
i've always been sort of like okay bryden's  gonna win biden's gonna win biden's gonna win  
01:02:31
and then there's a weird thing that i did and you  guys can see it in the fec filings but i gave a   million bucks this year in the elections but  i gave 750 to the senate and i gave 250 to buy  
01:02:42
and i didn't understand why i did it um and i and  i and i explained it to nat as she's like why did  
01:02:49
you do it that way and the best way that i could  explain it is i i think that there are so much  
01:02:56
i don't know about what is driving the vote for  president that i wanted to make sure that you know  
01:03:02
there are checks and balances and the best check  and balance was to you know make sure that there   was actually some senate um check and balance on  biden i mean on uh on trump so you know i'm i'm  
01:03:17
going to jason i'm going to accept the result um  i'm going to try to figure out what the [ __ ] i   don't know because this is yet another layer of  i clearly don't know what the hell is going on um  
01:03:29
think i can tell you pretty assuredly guys uh  any result that's called tonight i think is   going to be uh incomplete because they're not  going to call pennsylvania because they're not  
01:03:38
going to call philly and so if there are in fact  three no i think the the exact math is about 350  
01:03:47
000 votes that show up in philadelphia a  gap of 350 000 votes that show up in philly  
01:03:54
um biden will do what he needs to do by the way  how many people live in philly does anybody know  
01:03:59
how many registered voters friedberg is it is that  billy there's a lot of it's supposed to be like  
01:04:06
half a million votes coming in there and i think  they've counted a hundred thousand um and so i  
01:04:11
think it'd be more than half a million usually the  dims uh margin is about half a million the margin  
01:04:18
yeah philly is uh i want to say our fifth or  sixth largest market they've actually got it  
01:04:23
lifted it's a pretty significant population that  link i sent you there nick and then if you click  
01:04:28
on uh click to view precinct reporting you can  see the data right now sorry it's tough to read  
01:04:37
yeah i mean we care about allegheny  and then what else do we care about   you care about philly and you care about those  immediate suburbs outside of philly like box  
01:04:46
county and chester county and um there's a  there's four or five ringed suburbs of philly that  
01:04:52
used to be the uh centerpiece of country club  republicanism they're the the counties that  
01:04:58
elected arlen specter to the senate but over  time as the republicans moved right they moved  
01:05:04
more toward the democrats michael do you know  why they're going to stop reporting um mail-in   ballots tonight why would they do that they just  probably just uh to go home and sleep for a while  
01:05:14
before they pick it up tomorrow pennsylvania  unfortunately and michigan as well are states   that aren't allowed to start tabulating until  all the polls are closed uh that's why those uh  
01:05:23
states in the sun belt we were all looking for uh  to be a early bellwether because look at that guys  
01:05:31
4.81 this is unbelievable unbelievable what  what are we seeing here what's unbelievable  
01:05:39
so what that means jason is that uh in  philadelphia there are 176 precincts okay  
01:05:47
of those only 82 have reported the their ballot  tallies so you have 95 of the precincts in philly  
01:05:56
not reporting if you take michael's framework and  say there's a swing of 500 000 votes if it goes  
01:06:03
historically democrat as it has in the past you  attack on five hundred thousand net new votes  
01:06:11
to um to abide and you know and uh he uh he  ekes out a win yeah he it goes blue probably in  
01:06:20
that scenario yeah so then it becomes about  but remember though if trump is holding um  
01:06:29
if he manages to hold michigan he could  lose pennsylvania it wouldn't matter  
01:06:35
he had a little bit of a margin he had  what he had 306 electoral votes last time  
01:06:41
so if he holds everything he had minus  pennsylvania actually he could lose   michigan too as long as he carried wisconsin  he has it has to have one of those two  
01:06:49
but i think wisconsin's difficult so for  all of our uh listeners and watchers in  
01:06:56
new jersey they legalize recreational  pots so go out and get yourself some   cheese yeah i'm gonna i'm i just took four  gummies after my little tirade there because
01:07:08
the two xanax weren't working so that's going  to get really strange for me in about an hour
01:07:17
just to go back the reason i mean are we  going to crack a bottle of wine or what   somebody got i already got one yeah this is mostly  coffee but trust me there's some irish whiskey  
01:07:27
michael i guess i'm speaking to you but it looks  like i'm seeing reports of the sound of arizona   pennsylvania michigan and wisconsin unfortunately  all four of those states are going to probably  
01:07:36
take at least a day arizona three days i  think to count maybe not this year because  
01:07:44
so much of the vote was early maybe it'll  move faster but they are notoriously slow   counters so settle in it could be  the weekend before we have a result  
01:07:53
wow okay so let me just drop this if we don't  know tonight what is going to happen over the next  
01:08:05
week and we're going to be we're going to be  we're going to need a lot of gummies jason  
01:08:11
no i mean joking aside i think everybody's  going to be tense jay i think i don't i don't  
01:08:16
think you're going to see a lot of action one  way or the other i think that people i think   people in america are incredibly good people  i think that folks are just going to sit tight  
01:08:25
and hope that the folks whose job  it is to do their job do their job   um i i hope you're right chamath but when i  see a group of trucks surrounding people's cars  
01:08:36
when i see people bringing guns on both sides  horrible people on both sides bringing guns  
01:08:43
militia style to specifically taunt each other  when you see people getting shot in the street  
01:08:49
chasing each other down over politics this is  something that has not happened in our lifetime   i mean phil's very old so he kind of remembers  the 60s but for the rest of us under 68 we we  
01:09:02
have not witnessed americans shooting each other  in the street over politics we have not witnessed  
01:09:09
people taking people out of their lives because of  politics and this is got trump's fingerprints on  
01:09:17
it from you mean since this summer i mean what  about all the looting and rioting and protests  
01:09:23
my point is when trump got in office his character  and his ability to trigger people his ability to  
01:09:33
abuse people his rhetoric put everybody on tilt  i'm not saying people looting stores are correct  
01:09:40
but what i'm saying is george bush and ronald  reagan your heroes bill clinton obama other  
01:09:47
people's heroes on this call there was a there  was a a kindness in our differences and when  
01:09:54
people conceded they conceded with grace and this  individual this horrible human being bush wasn't
01:10:10
and we had a mutual respect for each other  that this deranged individual has removed  
01:10:17
from america so jason i'm not going to defend  that's going to happen in the next week because  
01:10:22
i'm not i'm not sure each other leading up to this  i think the next week should be incredibly violent  
01:10:28
you are fake news thank you for that you are  fake news now look uh jason i'm not going to like  
01:10:34
disagree with you about any of that um i the the  only thing i would add though is i do think that  
01:10:40
the media has been a co-equal partner in sowing  this chaos and divisiveness because you know  
01:10:47
we used to have a media that thought its job was  objectivity and neutrality yes and they ripped the  
01:10:55
umpire jersey off their back to go after this guy  trump and um and why do you think they did money  
01:11:02
it's very profitable trump trump has made big  money aside picking a side is is definitely   more profitable you get more subscribers  it might also be that they were absolutely  
01:11:12
suffering from trump derangement syndrome  from the fact that the person lies   and that he wants to separate children  from their parents at the border  
01:11:21
yes but they're supposed to they have a job to do  they're supposed to be neutral there's supposed   to be a rational contribution to trump yeah but  exactly but but the reason why trump is doing well  
01:11:31
or better is because the opposition  to him is increasingly irrational   and um and people have voted for trump  to to basically give the middle finger  
01:11:41
to you know to the to the media who you know again  who are taking sides to these big tech sensors  
01:11:48
you know who don't want us to read  things that are critical of trump   um you know and so on down the line i mean i i  tweeted earlier i mean rich lowry had a great post  
01:11:58
explaining why if trump was gonna win why you  know why that would happen and it's because  
01:12:04
he's the only middle finger available to these  people and uh you know i don't disagree with you  
01:12:10
he's not being no one's voting for trump because  of his integrity perceived integrity oh no or um  
01:12:16
integrity it's the first time i've heard integrity  in the same sentence as trump i thought you're i'm  
01:12:21
agreeing with that point um i'm saying they're  not voting for him because of that they're not   voting for him because of even a second term  and they're voting for him in order to to stop  
01:12:32
cultural forces they don't like i have  two things to say decidedly by the way  
01:12:39
two things to say um according to um the national  political writer for the philly inquirer jonathan  
01:12:50
tamari his tweet of 7 35 p.m said actually it was  even greater than we thought there are still 2.2  
01:12:57
million mail-in ballots to be counted in pa about  87 percent of the total so if that's true then we  
01:13:04
have that and philly number one the second thing i  wanted to say is that if you actually look at the  
01:13:10
psalm counts right now in pennsylvania it's  371 591 votes that separate trump and bible  
01:13:21
wow so it's uh you know not that much guys if 2.2  million votes are outstanding yeah but if it's if  
01:13:29
it's two if it's let's see sixty percent or two  third kind of to one third slash forty percent  
01:13:37
and it's not let's say it comes in under that  right they probably counted a couple hundred   thousand already i mean it is still pretty  close yeah um really close let me um let me ask  
01:13:48
jamaat do you think that part of the reason  we're seeing futures markets jump and the dollar  
01:13:56
jump and um uh and all the kind of uh obviously  correlated assets moving the way they are is not  
01:14:04
necessarily because of a trump win but because  the risk of a hung election seems to be coming  
01:14:10
out of the system right now that it seems like  we're gonna have a much more clear outcome here   than we thought we would florida is going to  be much more clear that's always a worry state  
01:14:19
um georgia is going to be clear obviously we've  still got pennsylvania to kind of figure out here  
01:14:24
but it seems like this is going to break one way  or another whereas a lot of folks were concerned   we'd end up in the court fighting overhanging  chads for months and there was concern in the  
01:14:33
markets for months about that um do we think  yeah no i think that people were basically  
01:14:41
look there's a reason to be  long biden in the markets   which is essentially that there are certain  sectors of the economy that would have done  
01:14:49
very well those sectors of the economy were  probably slightly different than trump's  
01:14:57
under a trump regime the reality is that corporate  taxes broadly speaking are not going to go up and   so you know you can forecast higher earnings  power for every stock and so everything goes up  
01:15:09
i think what's happening right now is more of  that relief trade of maybe trump was winning so  
01:15:14
you could be kind of long everything blindly  um but you know the real canary in the coal  
01:15:20
mine was like if you looked at tech futures tech  futures was just going bonkers when they thought   he was going to win because they will probably  disproportionately benefit of just having to pay  
01:15:28
no taxes because they pay no taxes today um i  um so so that's like kind of like what i what i  
01:15:34
think is happening on on that side i mean trump  is very pro-business that's why the markets are   ripping right i think i don't know i mean i feel  like there was a real concern like there was a a  
01:15:44
non-zero case here call it a 30 case that we were  gonna get stuck for a few months with uncertainty  
01:15:50
and litigation about where this election was  gonna go i think i think it's fair to say that we  
01:15:55
we still we we could still have that david because  we don't if if this goes to tomorrow i think it's  
01:16:00
fair to say that that the game theory would tell  you that tomorrow whoever loses pennsylvania  
01:16:06
should ask for an immediate recount right right  and i don't know what the pro they have to i don't   know what the process for that is if whoever loses  um arizona should ask for an immediate recount  
01:16:17
you know whatever is possible under the law  i think both biden and trump will exercise  
01:16:22
because let's face it this is the highest stakes  possible and so you would hate to not if it's a  
01:16:28
margin of a few thousands of votes or tens of  thousands of votes or even a hundred thousand   votes and you're allowed to do a recount so um if  that's the case tomorrow morning if we go to bed  
01:16:38
in another hour and a half or if we finish  this thing in another hour and there is no   winner uh clear winner i think markets will be  back to sort of modestly risk off tomorrow so  
01:16:50
david your thesis is that your thesis is a  clear winner the market's ripped either way  
01:16:55
i think yeah clear winner it's just like  there was a lot of grinding expected here   that was going to cause a lot of you know  trepidation and bouncing for a while that  
01:17:03
folks were concerned about and if you feel like  you're going to have a clear election outcome   or whether or not it gets litigated if you feel  clear about where it's going to go because it's  
01:17:12
55 45 you know i'm sure they're going to ask for  a recount good news for everybody it makes sense   look i i think the market does not want those  trump tax cuts repealed stocks just ripped after  
01:17:22
um trump passed those corporate tax cuts so  um if either trump wins or the republicans  
01:17:28
hold on to the senate then that would be a  reason for the market to rip doesn't mean   it doesn't mean trump has to win but it but  but if we have divided government gridlock  
01:17:38
so between the two of you the best best possible  scenario for the market is if trump clearly wins  
01:17:43
okay i think i think we have another investigation  is it the case if we look at the senate races  
01:17:49
um i don't know if anyone i don't know if there's  an easy way for us to pull this up but we have to   go pull that up david and i just want to introduce  our next bestie guest brad gerstner is here
01:18:02
right now multi-billion dollar i believe  you would call it a hedge fund or a fund  
01:18:08
yeah and he invests large swaths of money in the  american economy has a very is he the best travel  
01:18:14
investor of all time jason calganis he's up there  but um he certainly i would i would guess brad  
01:18:21
with covid and airlines being grounded  this has not been the easiest year for you   so apologies no brad brad just made 10 billion  dollars on snowflake he's fine uh snowflake man
01:18:35
brad uh what's going on tell us what's going  on what do you know well um kyle um it's a um  
01:18:46
it's a fascinating night i mean all markets are  ripping we've had a massive reversal in the nasdaq  
01:18:52
a massive reversal in the bond market um and it  it appears that you know everybody's now who is  
01:19:01
worried about a trump victory is now celebrating  the trump victory um you know one of the things  
01:19:07
people didn't understand about a clear biden  victory is the underlying concern in the bond  
01:19:14
market right if there's one thing to explain the  expansion of multiples in the market this year  
01:19:21
is the fact that rates have collapsed  right so the 30 and 10 year went from  
01:19:28
you know a couple hundred basis points 20 months  ago to basically 50 basis points in august of  
01:19:35
this year we've seen them back up about 40 percent  over the course of the last couple months we see  
01:19:41
them backing up again tonight the fact is the the  market is seriously concerned about higher rates  
01:19:48
which are the result of both a turbocharged  economy too much stimulus on top of you know  
01:19:55
uh vaccines and prophylactics for covid and  so you know if you ask me you know we get all  
01:20:02
excited about the election we get all excited  about stimulus and tax policy but the biggest   elephant in the room is the fed in rates that's  the 80 to 90 factor in the market this year in q4  
01:20:13
of 18 and so what i'm what we're looking at you  know we see the the nasdaq now up 350 bips the  
01:20:20
future's up 350 bibs so that says trump's winning  we're not going to break up the tech companies we  
01:20:25
see the s p starting to rise again and we see  the bond market falling saying that we're going  
01:20:30
to have lower stimulus right in the market um  so you know i i i've heard i've heard y'all  
01:20:39
talk about you know a clear victory certainly is  better than not a clear victory uh but you know  
01:20:46
not withstanding our own [ __ ] anxiety that  we have to live with for the next four years  
01:20:53
in the short run the market is clearly voting on  um you know is is voting that trump is a palatable  
01:21:01
alternative um and i would tell you to keep your  eyes on rates as much as you are on the market  
01:21:08
brad more than uh a great manager of money you're  actually a great human being but you're also very  
01:21:14
wired into the dems um what are the  dems getting wrong if they lose today  
01:21:21
well you know first this is an upset already  tonight let's call it this is a massive upset  
01:21:29
relative to expectations win or lose the reversal  in in the betting markets the reversal in the  
01:21:36
stock market you know it's just earlier tonight  it you know a well-known organizer's house uh on  
01:21:44
the democratic side there is despondency this is a  massive upset uh by trump and once again a massive  
01:21:52
misread by the progressives and organizers  in the democratic party you know i had my 84  
01:21:58
year old mother out here from michigan over the  weekend and i'll tell you that ordinary people
01:22:06
are made to be to feel bad about themselves  by people living in these parts the sanctimony  
01:22:15
that exists in urban areas you know and coastal  elites is just it's you know this is what we're  
01:22:26
seeing people vote against right the idea that  you're going to close down the state of michigan  
01:22:31
not allow people to take their boats out on lakes  this is just you know not something that people  
01:22:36
are willing to tolerate and i think more than  anything else tonight you see a protest vote  
01:22:42
against sanctimony um and this is just ordinary  people saying that you know let us live our lives  
01:22:51
don't act so much smarter than us um you know  and you know i asked my 84 year old mother  
01:22:59
you know who she voted for she  goes don't ask me who i voted for   that's none of your business right like that's  her way of telling me right that uh you know that  
01:23:09
she's frustrated by how people in san francisco  make her feel living in michigan i think that's  
01:23:17
i think that's brad that's so smart but david  sacks before you talk he's talking about you
01:23:24
well no look i mean i'm on twitter and i echo  technology extremely i mean it's usually vcs  
01:23:32
basically they can't comprehend how somebody could  have a political opinion that's different than   them without that person literally being evil i  mean i see this on twitter over and over and over  
01:23:42
again i'm like really yeah but but but but this  is like most of silicon valley and i'm just like  
01:23:49
look i mean political opinions are  like [ __ ] i mean everyone's got one   and to think that yours is a lot prettier than  everybody else's and it's a bit ridiculous  
01:23:58
um oh welcome everybody to the podcast if you're  just tuning in well the family hour just ended  
01:24:04
there we go wait brad brad can i ask a  question sure what um like what what do we do
01:24:14
yeah you know for me listen a trump victory  the reality is we've learned to tolerate  
01:24:21
the anxiety over the last four years and  i think the market's fully prepared to  
01:24:26
uh to manage its way through another four years of  trump so i think that's you know the reason we're  
01:24:31
seeing the the futures react the way they are is  it's a whole lot of nothing i mean the fact of the  
01:24:36
matter is asking how do we get off of our horses  if we're on horses the social elites well i mean  
01:24:42
um this is going to take a complete rewiring  right like an abandonment of um you know the i  
01:24:52
mean listen you you and i all know the exodus  of people out of the bay area right now right  
01:24:58
the fact of the matter is like pragmatic politics  in the democratic party in the state of california  
01:25:04
vacated long ago and you know that is not a recipe  for victory it's not a recipe for victory at a  
01:25:11
national level it's not a recipe for victory or  tolerable victory at a state level i think we're   going to have the single largest migration of  economic uh the single largest economic migration  
01:25:23
in the history of this country the convergence of  covid which allows people to work from anywhere  
01:25:29
and the risk of changing tax policies in states  like california is going to cause mass economic  
01:25:35
migration and i think that people are voting  with their feet and they're voting with their   wallets and they're voting you know tonight  in in loud numbers no matter where this where  
01:25:44
this comes down this is an upset and a defeat  for what democrats expected to occur tonight  
01:25:51
do you buy the framing brad that this is about  political correctness versus cancel culture  
01:25:58
yeah i think that's i think that's a big part of  it i mean like you know um i think it comes out  
01:26:04
it's it it's amplified this year because  of covid but it comes down to something   very simple which i talked about um you know  sometimes my sister likes to call me fancy pants  
01:26:17
right she's like oh you fancy people who live  in san francisco you have all the answers   right this is just the way that people in indiana  and michigan and ohio they're made to feel every  
01:26:27
day you know they'll sit around watching fox news  these are not people who are racist right chamath  
01:26:34
i heard you say earlier tonight the idea that  trump could pull what he's polling and yet if  
01:26:41
you talk to all of our friends they would have  you believe that it was just a small band of  
01:26:47
you know racist pickup drivers carrying trump  flags i mean they are their head is in the sand  
01:26:53
yeah this is this is ceos yeah you know these are  business owners these are small business owners  
01:26:59
these are farmers these are old people these are  young people i mean the the millennials you can't  
01:27:05
find a millennial in the state of indiana or  michigan who supports biden right you can't find  
01:27:10
them and i mean just to add to that point about  what they think about people in san francisco   why shouldn't they think that when tech giants and  the people who work at these big tech companies  
01:27:21
like twitter and facebook are asserting a right  to censor articles that they don't like and trying  
01:27:27
to assert a power over what the american people  get to see and read i mean what a campaign issue  
01:27:32
that was for trump in the last two weeks i mean  whatever twitter and facebook thought they were   doing to protect or help the biden campaign i mean  what a blunder i mean to give trump the issue of  
01:27:44
censorship in the last two weeks and then the  extraordinary thing you know we had that that   congressional hearing in the senate commerce  committee that i wrote a blog about and the  
01:27:52
amazing thing is right on the heels of that after  that hearing when we heard jack dorsey get that  
01:27:57
you know he just got grilled he got ripped apart  by the senators twitter doubled down on censorship   after that there's an article by jonathan turley  talking about they censored a whole new batch  
01:28:06
of accounts and so if anything you know it'll  be really interesting to see i think you know  
01:28:12
if you think back four years ago facebook was  really for whatever reason became the scapegoat  
01:28:17
for the election i think this time around it's  going to be twitter because they have been   so arrogant and they're assertion of their  right to censor viewpoints that and if the  
01:28:27
republicans hold on to the senate um and or  the presidency i think you're going to see  
01:28:33
jack dorsey become the poster child for this  new censorship that they're going to target  
01:28:38
and the paradox friedberg is that had they  just let that new york post story be tweeted  
01:28:47
because it's the new york post this is i mean  you may not like the new york post it may have   assorted past or reputation but if that had been  a new york times story washington post story  
01:28:57
or an msnbc story or a cnn story it would not have  been banned because it's a rupert murdoch new york  
01:29:04
post story and because it was salacious somebody  mid-level inside of twitter decided to ban it  
01:29:12
how much you of that do you think plays into  what we're seeing here tonight freedberg which is  
01:29:20
this is not uh a small event this  is a large group of people saying  
01:29:29
i don't want anything to do with the democratic  party anymore i just think back to 2016  
01:29:34
and um you know everyone has their own priorities  their own individual things that matter to them  
01:29:43
and i remember in 2016 or leading up to it i spent  a lot of time in what we call kind of the rust  
01:29:48
belt and the farm belt um if you'll remember this  was around the time of kind of the transgender  
01:29:56
bathroom um you know movement yeah yeah yeah  and this was felt very much like a coastal elite  
01:30:04
um topic of interest if you're in the rust belt  in the farm belt you're like what the [ __ ] how  
01:30:09
is this possibly something people are spending  time on and arguing about and thinking about   and the disconnect between the priorities of the  individuals that live in the vast part of the  
01:30:20
united states versus what they read about and hear  about others treat as their priority um i think  
01:30:27
is what partially helped support trump getting  elected in the first place because the things  
01:30:32
that matter to them that they felt were highly  consequential um were completely unrelated and not  
01:30:37
being paid attention to while other folks you know  that had the money and the power in the big cities  
01:30:43
were focused on social matters and social  issues and liberal decisions that they thought   were inconsequential or shouldn't be a priority  and i think that fast forward to 2020 and it  
01:30:53
hasn't moved in the right direction it's moved in  the wrong direction where the the the disconnect   is no longer a passive difference of priority  it's actually become an active interest moving  
01:31:05
against you and so if you live in the corn belt  or the rust belt or vast parts of rural america  
01:31:12
to your point you're now not only  feeling that there's this disconnect   but you're also feeling like this point of view  is becoming um overwhelming and stopping you from  
01:31:21
having a point of view and i think whether  your point of view is rooted in fact or not   you can base that however you want um it just  feels like it's becoming a silencing effect  
01:31:31
and not just kind of a a you know ignoring the  effect and i think let me yeah let me just jump in  
01:31:37
here uh i wanted to come back to this but i want  to just jump to something that bogut just tweeted  
01:31:42
andrew bogut thank you for this um detroit  philadelphia and milwaukee are all planning to  
01:31:47
post vote counts tomorrow as they work through  absentee backlogs so if we look at the counts  
01:31:53
that really could mean that phil you know  uh pennsylvania wisconsin and michigan are  
01:32:00
either too close to call or not even yet ready  to be called until tomorrow morning um i think  
01:32:07
let's take a pause here and let's go through what  the swing states are and where they stand at this  
01:32:13
very moment arizona is an important toss-up  state correct let's pull up arizona nick  
01:32:19
uh let's all just take a moment to look at  arizona we're gonna go through about six   or seven of these states and just get our  bearing right now because when we did the  
01:32:27
quick survey about 45 minutes ago four of  us believed trump was gonna win two of us  
01:32:34
believe one of us emotionally and  of us somewhat emotionally believed
01:32:44
hold on before you start this  i just want to read a tweet   um two two tweets number one from nick bilton  when do we get to vote on when we fire nate silver  
01:32:54
and the second one wait the second one which is  even funnier he's named nate silver because all  
01:33:01
his picks come in second place oh ouch wow i mean  i i was tweeting you guys before the election i  
01:33:11
mean the nate silver thing was a joke first of  all he was saying that biden was 90 favorite   and at the same time he said that if trump won  pennsylvania then he would become the favorite  
01:33:21
but you knew that trump was a few points  of the margin of error in pennsylvania so  
01:33:26
how can you be a 90 favorite but some but but  but pennsylvania is sort of neck and neck i mean  
01:33:33
even his own internal projections  weren't consistent with each other   i mean here's mate silver one of the best sports  predictors in history he's been an absolute genius  
01:33:42
he stepped into politics and now you guys  are lashing yeah but this this is the worst   case of analytics since uh tampa bay pulled their  picture in the sixth inning of uh the world series  
01:33:53
i mean i if we look at what's happening it's  very clear that there are people who are either  
01:34:00
lying to the pollsters because  they're embarrassed about their choice   or they may actively be trolling the  pulsars so when a pollster calls them  
01:34:09
they lie to them to have this exact moment happen  just like the tick tockers all registered for a  
01:34:15
trump event so now we have a level of  trolling going on at a national level
01:34:23
i think there's a simpler explanation and that's  that we're not all trolls i think the simpler  
01:34:28
explanation is that pollsters are empiricists  and they're experts and uh like a lot of experts  
01:34:35
you you can kind of you can kind of interpret  the trump phenomenon of of over performing now  
01:34:42
two elections in a row is a kind of revolt against  the experts uh and they don't see their biases  
01:34:49
uh the way they should they're they're blind to  certain things there's really no excuse for how   bad they missed this one because michael they  may have been experts yesterday but they're not  
01:34:59
experts well this is i mean this is what trump  does this is why people support him in spite of   the fact that i don't think anyone disagrees  with jason's opinion of his of his character  
01:35:08
is that they love sticking it to the to the  eggheads you know right yeah brad what happens  
01:35:15
to um media like what happens to how we conduct  ourselves like do you do you read the new york  
01:35:22
times tomorrow and think wow i'm going to trust  the times i'm not saying you did before but i'm   just using it as a generality to sort of ask the  question like what happens to media no i think i i  
01:35:31
think our belief in you know all of these polls  and all of these mainstream press i mean this  
01:35:37
validates the arguments effectively that trump  has been making right that you've been told lies  
01:35:43
that these polls were lies that everybody  was trying to manipulate you i mean it's   this is a validation of those who are flipping  the middle finger at washington and at the coast  
01:35:55
and they're saying we're not going to be  told how to believe how to think how to vote   um how to wear masks how to wear masks  and you know it's a dangerous side to this  
01:36:06
100 it's the end of expertise i mean who who can  we ever trust i mean and this is putin ironically  
01:36:12
it's the experts who got mass wrong remember that  at the time that i was saying that we should wear  
01:36:17
masks the who was saying we shouldn't so they were  lying they were deliberately lying to keep uh ppe  
01:36:25
from being overrun by so the experts have done  a horrible job on covet too jason i mean look i  
01:36:30
think that's yes but now the cynicism of trump and  his approach to absolutely undermine fauci and say  
01:36:38
to and admonish people wearing masks while on  stage is a level of danger and and is in is  
01:36:45
a little different that's insane so know that  mass work you actually were a proponent of it  
01:36:52
yes of course math should never become a poor  question trump last week said don't wear a mask  
01:36:58
no he never he was he literally made fun of a  person wearing a mask let's just run through
01:37:19
issue okay um right it should have been a  bipartisan response and it's unfortunate it   became a political issue um but uh and i'm not not  forgiving that and it took trump way too long to  
01:37:31
get on board with mass i think right around the  time my blog was published a few days afterwards   first he said it was optional you could do it if  you want it took him about another three months to  
01:37:40
actually say that master a good idea i agree that  had he just gone all in on a mass policy i think  
01:37:46
this would not even be a close election i  mean that was probably the single biggest   blunder that he made politically this year um  100 agree okay so we agree on that but but but  
01:37:56
look but you're missing the other half of it  which is what is our cova policy going to be   today and the reality is that joe biden and all  these blue state governors are still on the record  
01:38:07
as being in favor of lockdowns and in fact they  are doing lockdowns the only reason why michigan  
01:38:13
and wisconsin but i say especially michigan would  ever be in play tonight was because of lockdowns  
01:38:18
absolutely i agree yes this is a resounding rebuke  of lockdowns let's uh just zip through these real  
01:38:26
quick arizona pull it up nick arizona here we are  buy it in 54 if we round up 45 for donald trump 75  
01:38:35
looks like arizona is going to uh biden  next up let's take a quick look at iowa um  
01:38:45
iowa 64 percent in and we're in a essentially a  dead heat with yeah i was going to trump jason  
01:38:53
i was going to trump you can see how that numbers  come down yeah as the uh election day vote starts  
01:38:59
to trickle in that's going to trump so they  were one of the states that did the um drop  
01:39:05
off ballots mailing ballots first yes i think i  think that's fair to say yeah okay ohio critically  
01:39:10
important let's take a look at ohio while we're  here uh ohio wow that's really flipped hard  
01:39:17
with a commanding lead yeah you can kiss that one  goodbye yeah ohio north carolina we are now within  
01:39:26
one can we just all agree if we were i mean right  if we're momentum investors i mean this thing is  
01:39:34
this is a disaster for biden right it's a disaster  this is a disaster for biden and on top of this  
01:39:41
all our talk is about the presidency  they're not going to get the senate either   no no uh tillis is running ahead of uh trump in  north carolina so i think he's home free and well  
01:39:53
the vote in maine is not fully in yet there's  only about 41 percent collins has a 40 000 vote  
01:39:58
lead which susan collins keeps her seat that is  the biggest that that is like the mega upset the  
01:40:05
democrats were already they were targeting her two  years ago after she voted for kavanaugh yeah okay  
01:40:12
the best that as we think through this by the way  just keep this in mind cnn right now shows i mean  
01:40:19
cnn's head must be up their ass or we don't know  what we're doing but they show 192 to 114 biden  
01:40:25
um oh yeah because they call them california  that's right they called california when   the polls closed so that's 55 that went  yeah okay north carolina here we go uh  
01:40:36
we we or we did north carolina i believe yeah  we're at uh 95 reporting and trump has a a lead  
01:40:43
that looks like he's yeah and unless there's a  lot of charlotte out i think that north carolina   is over and that by the way that uh percentage  is outside the recount uh window i think you  
01:40:53
have to be within one percent okay let's take a  look at georgia for a quick second we said that   michael do you know if we've counted north  carolina's mainland i think that i think they were  
01:41:03
all dumped at the outset right north carolina one  of the reasons why we were watching them tonight   is that like florida they can count in advance  and so they dumped they dumped a bunch right at  
01:41:14
the outset here by the way i just got it by the  way i just checked the betting lines trump is   over a three to one favorite to win the election  right now the later at the later it goes the more  
01:41:23
significant that is wait why did it come down  to 200 on bovado that's the lowest it's been
01:41:31
i just got three to one on one of the sides oh  this has two to one yeah that's the lowest um
01:41:38
if you assume that biden takes arizona trump  takes north carolina south carolina georgia  
01:41:46
let's go let's give him pennsylvania wins arizona  uh if biden wins arizona he could lose michigan  
01:41:55
so georgia is currently fifty-four percent  declared that biden won arizona oh well  
01:42:01
okay that's a quick call uh items has to take  pennsylvania okay so now this is what i'm saying  
01:42:08
this is why this is in place so if you assume  biden takes arizona so that's now on the table now   if you say that trump takes north carolina south  carolina georgia pennsylvania florida texas ohio  
01:42:18
et cetera he still needs to pull out a victory in  michigan wisconsin or minnesota otherwise get this  
01:42:27
or nevada well actually nevada wouldn't be enough  nevada wouldn't be enough yeah otherwise let's go   to minnesota guys hold on guys hold on just let  me finish please it's going to be if trump so if  
01:42:37
that happens trump needs to win one of michigan  wisconsin or minnesota otherwise it's 270 268  
01:42:43
biden wow okay so here's minnesota let's just  pause for a second biden with uh biden's got a  
01:42:52
56 to 42 with 54 percent in so there's a  lot more to come in but i think michael  
01:42:59
you would agree that's a bridge too far i i never  thought minnesota was in play uh the republicans  
01:43:04
the republicans put a brave face on there uh and  they are making some gains in the rural areas but   minnesota was never in place okay time to go to  wisconsin time to go to wisconsin let's take a  
01:43:14
let's pause here we got to do this step by step  everybody wisconsin 51 to 47 donald trump with  
01:43:20
54 percent that too i think feels like a bridge  too far or do we not know if they did we don't  
01:43:26
oh you know i think wisconsin is another one who's  probably counted their election day vote first   so no so still very much alive in wisconsin yeah  exactly milwaukee doesn't come in until tomorrow  
01:43:38
morning yeah michigan we need to take a quick  look at michigan and then we're almost done  
01:43:44
okay here's michigan donald trump at uh trending  to 55 to 44 for biden only 44 percent are in and  
01:43:53
let's be clear is this um detroit tomorrow  okay is that michigan detroit yeah that that  
01:44:01
that wayne county vote is very low yeah look at  that 28 percent a lot of more lot more votes there  
01:44:08
okay so we don't know about michigan michigan is  very much up in the air that's that's a pretty   good margin for trump there but i would say  it's very much up in the air but by the way  
01:44:16
if you put arizona in biden's column he can lose  michigan let's take a look at pennsylvania one  
01:44:22
more time actually and trumath is right he could  lose he could lose either michigan or pennsylvania   and still he could have trump needs to win  michigan wisconsin one of michigan wisconsin  
01:44:31
or minnesota so basically forget minnesota if  destroyed so okay so then if detroit doesn't  
01:44:37
show up and milwaukee and green bay don't show up  trump wins pennsylvania does that assume that he  
01:44:44
wins pennsylvania yes if i give you if we give him  pennsylvania so again this is why i think guys um  
01:44:54
it feels like biden as i said i'm a little shaky  on my prediction right now actually i think the  
01:45:00
the betting markets are showing uh it's tightened  almost to even and let me ask brad a question brad  
01:45:06
if the betting markets are saying it's almost even  and the analysis we just did isn't missing any   information yeah why are the um futures markets  still trading up one and a half points and why are  
01:45:16
things still you know i i think that listen the  the the stock market's ripped the last two days  
01:45:23
assuming that biden's gonna win and i think  what the markets are starting to uh price  
01:45:31
in is that this is not going to be a blue wave  there's no mandate here for massive tax reform  
01:45:38
there's going to be a divided senate it's going  to be hard to pass legislation that's going to   be overly onerous that the stimulus package is  going to be smaller not larger which is why the  
01:45:49
the rates are backing up so i think from a i  think from a public markets perspective the  
01:45:55
idea that we're going to have some checks and  balances in place it can live with either the  
01:46:01
the devil we know uh or it can live with biden  but it doesn't want biden with elizabeth warren  
01:46:08
as treasury secretary so democracy survives  i i think scenario three is starting to  
01:46:14
look very possible a biden and a republican  senate and uh i can sleep soundly with that  
01:46:19
i don't i don't know we're gonna have to i mean  you guys i don't know what odds you're looking   at but uh but i mean 1.9 is i mean that's  like that's a huge significant right there  
01:46:29
it's still good i give you that but uh i don't  know those those numbers it's moving fast  
01:46:38
i want to take it it's down to 180 yeah i want to  go back to this topic um that that brought up um  
01:46:45
okay guys look we'll have a winner and it's going  to be closage um but think of how many people  
01:46:54
um like isn't there any empathy for all these  people that are that just feel so completely shut  
01:46:59
out of the system like what do we do tomorrow like  irrespective actually of whether trump wins or  
01:47:05
biden wins i think brad's right we're to basically  get you know nothing much is going to happen at   that level but what do we do at the like on main  street like what are we doing to close the gap  
01:47:15
between folks so that you know this entire cohort  like literally i don't care whether biden wins by  
01:47:21
the popular vote by five million or seven million  you're talking about tens of millions of people  
01:47:28
bill gurley is now on the line uh another one of  our best i guess these bill thanks for joining us   you heard the question being teed up here this  is neck and neck this is not something anybody  
01:47:39
at least pollsters came anywhere close to  predicting and chamat's question i think is  
01:47:44
a really valid one who is got a greater chance  of bringing the country back together and maybe  
01:47:51
leading from the middle and maybe healing this  wound because this has been the worst four years  
01:47:57
i believe in any of our lifetimes in terms of the  anxiety and the anger between people who used to  
01:48:04
be able to what a loaded question totally  well i want to know bill's opinion because  
01:48:10
by the way bill gurley is the best coach jason  jason is the best venture capitalist in the world  
01:48:18
phil stop hijacking our [ __  ] broadcast go ahead girlie   so thanks for having me on i you know i think you  guys have done a really good job of breaking down  
01:48:27
why people have mis-estimated this thing there  was a you know there's such a royal urban split  
01:48:34
there was a there was a really good new york  times daily podcast about two weeks ago where they   interviewed uh rural democrats in in  pennsylvania that had switched to trump and  
01:48:45
and all the voices they echoed were very similar  to what brad walked through with his mother and   so i do think there's a a true lack of empathy for  the the center states and the rural areas from the  
01:48:57
coastal elites and i'd say part of breaking any of  it down would be somehow trying to separate that  
01:49:03
i think a bigger issue that has really been on my  mind lately is just how tribal everyone's gotten  
01:49:10
and i i've i've come to believe that the way you  can probably just ruin your mind the most is to  
01:49:18
just join a tribe and quit thinking about things  and the number of people i know on both sides  
01:49:24
that have run off to their tribe is shocking to  me and and it's just not a way to go about being  
01:49:31
smart because you know and and if you anyone  that makes fun of a you know a religion that's  
01:49:39
extreme or something it's all the same [ __ ] like  you're just believing dogma for the sake of it so  
01:49:44
i one of the things that i worry about about a  trump victory is is just very tactically in my  
01:49:50
life and maybe it's part of living in california  but a whole bunch of people and things that i want  
01:49:56
to get solved become more manic if he wins like  my kids school and the companies that i work with  
01:50:03
and and covert quite frankly i i  think that we can't get past covet   with trump because the tdsers are so convinced  that it has to be problematic and it's just  
01:50:14
you know so i don't i actually i don't know the  exact path to solve it but i i do worry about  
01:50:20
just being in a world where everyone hates each  other and it just doesn't seem solvable that way  
01:50:27
well th this is why i think you know uh this  this scenario which uh we've called the soft  
01:50:33
landing where let's say you had a biden victory  by two electoral votes the republicans hold on   to the senate um i think the radical left gets a  big um i'd say rebuke um or a shock and we have  
01:50:47
basically divided government in washington but  it takes the whole temperature down because   you know trump gets replaced by biden but you've  kind of got you know basically joe and his old  
01:50:56
pal metro and a power sharing arrangement in  washington it could be a really good situation   for the country for the next four years you know  temperature would go down there'd be kind of this  
01:51:06
you know healing process if you will um but  you know there wouldn't be a whole lot of new  
01:51:11
sort of legislation that we have to worry about  i think we would get what we want which is the   ability to ignore washington for four years yeah  but we wouldn't get a solution to really what  
01:51:21
ails us which is the fact that there's all these  people that just feel completely shut out and i  
01:51:27
that really bothers me at some very basic level  which is like i just think like you know i fought  
01:51:34
my family my parents just escaped some third world  [ __ ] [ __ ] to go to canada and you know canada  
01:51:42
gave us a lot but it still wasn't enough for me  i crawled and scratched to get into the united   states things work out but i don't feel like i  have a right to all of a sudden um i don't know  
01:51:55
just like look down on other people or make  people feel like [ __ ] or not allowed so you  
01:52:01
actually think chamoth that biden is going to  do that or do you think bine's going to be no   but jason i think middle ground no who who no with  the republicans in the senate what i'm saying is  
01:52:12
independent of what happens we're going to have  basically we're going to have a photo finish  
01:52:18
and what i think what brad said is right the the  fact that we're in a photo finish means that there  
01:52:25
are a lot of people in pain and i think we have a  responsibility to get our heads out of our asses  
01:52:33
and stop this sanctimonious holier-than-thou  [ __ ] i agree with brad when he says that it   really hits the nerve with me because i feel like  there are a lot of people we work with them all  
01:52:42
it's rife within the tech culture and all these  [ __ ] bags think they know what they're talking   about all the time and we're doing a disservice  to so many americans and we need to wake up and  
01:52:52
that's what bothers me the idea that there are so  many people who feel like they're just getting so  
01:53:01
really bothers me that bothers me so i i i can  ignore trump i'll ignore his [ __ ] because  
01:53:07
honestly he's done nothing he will do nothing  he is a complete [ __ ] void um but whether it's  
01:53:15
trump or biden in a 270 268 election the fact that  so many people still use this guy as a vessel um  
01:53:23
i don't know that makes that makes me more upset  i think some people i think a lot everyone thinks  
01:53:29
has some degree of empathy to the problem i think  there are different points of view on the solution   which is where this stuff gets realized the one  point of view is we should have less government  
01:53:38
involved in our lives and our businesses and  the other point of view is we should have   more support and help from the government  and that's where things diverge very quickly  
01:53:46
it doesn't feel to me like anyone in politics  is necessarily ignoring what you're highlighting  
01:53:53
and i don't think anyone in america does from  the rich to the poor to the left to the right   yeah i think the solutions are miscast because  for example like what are we supposed to do  
01:54:02
like with our higher educational  institutions the people that are churning out   all these folks that are meant to go  and collaborate and find middle ground  
01:54:10
i mean i clearly like all of this says our  educational facilities are completely failing from   grade school all the way through to high school  um community college college grad school it's  
01:54:22
all just a contrived piece of [ __ ] right we  are completely putting out one in two people  
01:54:28
for failure okay so that much is clear so i  don't see politicians fixing that on either  
01:54:36
side of the aisle what i mean honestly what are  we supposed to do well i mean i might just might  
01:54:41
i just suggest that um two things um number one  i think in these results that you see there's a  
01:54:50
you know there is extraordinary frustration  right with this with the state of affairs  
01:54:57
the fact that trump in the middle of covid after  four years of torturous anxiety-inducing tweets  
01:55:06
could even be in a neck-to-neck  race to win this election tells you  
01:55:11
right how devastatingly bad people feel about  how how they're being treated i think that  
01:55:18
you know i said recently i mean we have  to redraft the social contract this idea  
01:55:23
we've been living under a social  contract drafted post-world war ii   um that you know it's pre-technology revolution  we have a concentration of wealth today in the  
01:55:33
world and in this country like we've never seen  and we have uh republicans that are set in their  
01:55:40
ways who say you know no no no universal health  care you know no reform of the education system  
01:55:47
you have democrats who are demanding that you have  universal basic income i think you have to have  
01:55:53
um pragmatic smart younger politics i mean  the fact that we have two old white men  
01:56:02
i mean neither of these folks is on top of their  game i mean neither of these like this is i mean  
01:56:10
you could you compare biden to pete budage i mean  buddha judge is buddha jizz walks into the lion's  
01:56:19
den of fox tv and tames the lion every night every  night right let's get pete bootages solving some  
01:56:28
of these problems let's get some younger ideas  on the republican side solving these problems but   we're going to have to re-architect architect  that social contract no doubt about it um  
01:56:39
you know and i i think the second thing is that  you know to me this is going to be a wake-up call  
01:56:46
to the nominating processes in both parties  but but let's be clear mike pence right has  
01:56:53
his road map um you know for you know how  to win the election indiana governor right  
01:57:01
he's going to tap into the same fears that trump  tapped into i mean these fears aren't going away  
01:57:07
right the exacerbation of the wealth  disparity is going to increase not   decrease we see it every day out here and so  i think you're going to have to have you know  
01:57:17
the democratic party who nominates people  and puts people you know forward who can  
01:57:22
you know who can tap into this brad who do  you like if it wasn't biden who would you like
01:57:29
buddha judge he's a south this was  the you know an openly gay mayor  
01:57:36
of my hometown in indiana you think he can  sell right who fought who fought in afghanistan  
01:57:44
and who goes on fox news every damn night right  and has a conversation that leaves republicans  
01:57:51
saying oh that guy's pretty smart right yeah i  i agree that he's a tremendous political talent  
01:57:58
do you think that he's pragmatic enough brad or  he he would he would end up veering more towards  
01:58:04
uh you know sort of like politically correct  leftist socialist agenda and then have the  
01:58:10
same result i think that there is a there's been  a doctrine in the in the democratic party that  
01:58:17
to win the primary you gotta veer to the left  right you got to contend with bernie you got to  
01:58:23
contend with elizabeth warren but ultimately  that's a losing strategy in in the election  
01:58:29
and so i think you're going to have the emergence  of a middle of the country governor middle of  
01:58:34
the country mayor somebody like pete um who's  gonna run you know on a smart younger pragmatic  
01:58:41
democratic ticket um i think that's a winning  formula i mean i think that's the clinton formula  
01:58:47
um you know obama was a bit of an anomaly  but the clinton formula was a conservative  
01:58:53
pragmatic form of of uh democratic party  leadership i mean i suspect that in the next  
01:58:59
three or four days i'm going to get a call  from the democratic leadership figuring out   how much they can count on me and my message  to them is you guys can go [ __ ] yourselves  
01:59:07
until you figure this out because to your  point brad it is absolutely shameful that  
01:59:13
we're in no no i'm serious that we are in i know  you are that's what i love well but chamoth i mean  
01:59:19
what you should tell them to do is go form a dlc  remember the demo democrat leadership committee   that bill clinton formed so remember what what  bill clinton did you know when he won in 92 we  
01:59:29
had three straight republican presidential terms  ronald reagan incredibly successful president then  
01:59:34
his successor basically reagan wanted bush  won a third term for reagan but he was a weak  
01:59:40
candidate and clinton came in there what did he do  he triangulated he tacked toward the center um and  
01:59:47
you know he he actually passed a lot of bipartisan  legislation david david david let me make this   even more blunt okay um my million bucks will grow  to 10 million dollars a per election to 50 million  
01:59:59
dollars per election as i get older okay so if  these [ __ ] want a single goddamn dollar for me  
02:00:05
what i want first is a root cause analysis  to understand what is actually going on   so to your point before you fix it you  need to be honest and identify the problem  
02:00:14
well i mean i i think that i think it's it's  because that the issue that trump ran against  
02:00:20
was that joe biden was a trojan horse for radical  for a radical left that really owns the democratic  
02:00:29
party right now that's what he ran against  bill gurley what do you think the issues are  
02:00:34
that if we were going to try to have a great  reconciliation between these two parties   between middle america and the coastal elites  where you have spent you know large swaths of your  
02:00:44
life i think perhaps you're the only person here  who has lived in both places middle of america  
02:00:50
he's from indiana okay but i trust your judgment  on these issues what what does the what does the  
02:00:58
what are the coasts need to understand  about the people who believe who when who   live between the coasts and what they're trying  to express to us and how can we as coastal uh  
02:01:09
occupants and citizens do to kind of bridge  this gap other than just moving to austin and  
02:01:14
getting the hell out of california which is  devolving which is what i feel like doing at   this point well dude i have two comments on  this one you know having having listened to  
02:01:24
you know as much as i can on on all the of the  the voter conversations including this call  
02:01:31
um i'm not 100 sure that that these people  feel unrepresented i think a lot of them want  
02:01:37
to be left alone and so part part of what's being  engineered or what they fear is being engineered  
02:01:45
is someone sitting in a city with views that  are very different than them telling them that  
02:01:50
this is the world they have to live by and i  think the lockdown fit in with that but a lot   of other things too that the the daily podcast  i mentioned you know there was this guy just  
02:02:00
saying what is what does nancy pelosi know about  what i want in my day-to-day life you know and so  
02:02:07
there is a notion of being left alone brad's  story about his mom was like hey we're fine   here like don't don't bother me and so there's  a there's a difference between trying to solve  
02:02:17
a problem for them and being empathetic  to their point of view and and i would say  
02:02:22
um having spent a lot of time in these areas and  being a slow talker and sometimes uh made fun of  
02:02:27
for that there is a there's unquestionably a uh a  type of social bias against rural americans in in  
02:02:38
urban cities there's just no doubt it's it's the  only joke you're allowed to tell without getting  
02:02:43
rebuked in other words we can make fun of the  rednecks and we can oh absolutely all day long  
02:02:50
all day long we can we can do a bill gurley  impersonation or no they're either they're   either idiots well i mean if we and this is the  thing that i don't understand when i grew up  
02:03:01
and i'm curious other people's opinions here and  i'll let anybody who wants to jump in on this   it feels like the lessons i was taught in the 70s  and 80s which were america is strong because we're  
02:03:11
a melting pot we take the best of all the cultures  and we try to make our own out of it and that you  
02:03:18
get to make choices for your life and in your city  town and state that don't have to be the same as  
02:03:26
the ones we make in new york so if you want to  have a handgun and you want to put it on your   waistband in texas or wherever and in new york  city we don't want to have handguns in the city  
02:03:35
because it's a little bit more crowded we can  we can have that difference and we can co-exist  
02:03:42
and i don't know when we lost this script that  what makes america great is the differences and  
02:03:48
that people living in different parts of a very  large diverse country can have different opinions  
02:03:55
about you know abortion and and what month  abortion is allowed to occur at or the owning  
02:04:02
of a gun or you know how tall a building can be  built when did that get taken off the table and  
02:04:09
who took it off the table you know who took it  off the table was these hysterical libs the and   i think the hysterical as much as this far right  trump you know uh you know flags on pickup trucks  
02:04:22
surrounding other cars is absolutely horrible to  watch i i have equal disdain for hysterical libs  
02:04:29
trying to tell somebody who lives on a ranch  that they can't have a gun when they've never   even been to a goddamn ranch and they've never had  to use a gun to protect their family because that  
02:04:39
a cop coming to your ranch is going to take 45  minutes and that's what america needs to get back  
02:04:46
to is respecting each other's different lifestyles  whether you're an atheist or you're devoutly  
02:04:52
catholic viva la different roles let people live  their goddamn lives i think it's an astute point  
02:04:58
bill j cal can we run down california next  yeah i'm very curious how prop 22 is doing
02:05:09
jesus the god damn people are allowed bill can you  tell everyone what prop 22 is and why yeah please  
02:05:16
why why yeah but and and and and it would  transition to a whole bunch of conversations about  
02:05:22
politics that i i feel more passionate about than  who gets elected which is if you know in order  
02:05:30
to solve the problems that everyone's upset about  with an inequality and whatnot i think you have to  
02:05:36
have massive innovation and you have to have job  growth and i don't know of any waves in history  
02:05:44
where you get a whole bunch of improvement in in  standard living for broad swaths of a population  
02:05:51
without being positively aligned with job growth  and what the where i'm going with this is my  
02:05:57
biggest concern about washington i used to say the  main reasons silicon valley works is because it's  
02:06:02
so [ __ ] far away from dc um and it's because  regulation is the friend of the incumbent and  
02:06:09
it's the it's the opposite of innovation it locks  in things and it's very resistant to change and  
02:06:16
um matt ridley's new book how innovation works  goes through this over a very very long period  
02:06:22
of time it's it's fantastic and he talks about  why europe's gotten stuck in like the top 50  
02:06:28
market cap companies in europe there's no new  entrant in 30 years or something like that um  
02:06:35
because of this anyway prop 22 is a california  proposition reaction to a law that was put on  
02:06:42
the california books called ab5 to the best  of my knowledge and this is consistent with  
02:06:47
the editorial groups at the l.a times the  san francisco chronicle and the san diego   tribune is that it was written entirely by a  union the seiu who has no representation over over  
02:07:00
drivers or gig workers whatsoever they represent  service industry workers um and they would like  
02:07:06
to represent uber drivers but they don't today  and i i think i think about this like a bunch of  
02:07:12
people living in nevada trying to pass a law for  the citizens of california unfortunately because  
02:07:18
of regulatory capture which which i think is  unfortunate on both sides of the aisle the  
02:07:24
union's able through a woman named lorena gonzalez  is able to get the state to pass a law that that  
02:07:31
basically targeted gig workers which was this new  job type that has all these fantastic benefits  
02:07:37
anyway um immediately thereafter there were  several industries were like oh we don't want this  
02:07:44
for us so them and their unions and constituents  started calling on sacramento with lorena gonzalez  
02:07:50
and and and carving them out one by one so by the  by the time ab5 was set to be put in action there  
02:07:58
were over 100 industries that have been carved out  because it was a stupid law written just to target  
02:08:04
a single industry and it was written with  political donor dollars now in a moment that  
02:08:10
i would say is completely outside of my realm of  what i expected um all of the newspaper all the  
02:08:17
editorial boards for all of the major newspapers  in california came to the conclusion that this was  
02:08:24
a bad law that this was crony capitalism written  with donor dollars and they all got behind prop 22  
02:08:31
which is because we have this ballot initiative  in california is a way for the voters to tell  
02:08:36
sacramento that they're full of [ __ ] and  that looks like what's happening right now  
02:08:42
sorry for the long answer no no it's it's a great  answer and what what's particularly infuriating  
02:08:49
about this and listen you and i are both um you  know investors in companies impacted by this  
02:08:58
is that it's there's a group of people who've been  exempted from this and the list of people exempted  
02:09:05
all seem to be just slightly more powerful  and slightly better paid um sales people  
02:09:14
uh fishermen psychologists uh surgeons dentists  engineers architects lawyers etc and if this had  
02:09:23
passed or if it still does pass because we're only  at 15 or 20 percent of people have been counted  
02:09:29
so far but it's looking like prop 22 will pass  well in one of the businesses i run inside.com  
02:09:36
we had to uh tell all of the freelancers we  were hiring who are writers that they would  
02:09:43
lose their gig work with us because they can only  write five stories a year or ten stories a year  
02:09:49
and vox one of the big publishing companies which  is incredibly left leaning as left as it gets  
02:09:58
they stopped hiring people in california and they  fired and laid off all their california freelance  
02:10:04
writers nick and what this does to people who are  doing gig economy 70 of them are working part-time  
02:10:12
nick can you go back to uh can you i  need to switch topics nick can you go   to georgia please for a second uh a  little little late-breaking data uh  
02:10:21
over 400 000 votes outstanding in  atlanta and the suburbs um how close
02:10:30
oh my god it's a statistical dead heat if you add  back in 400 000 for all by now i'm just saying  
02:10:36
that's not where it's going to be but uh yeah yeah  i mean atlanta atlanta should go 70 percent by oh  
02:10:44
sure it will yeah maybe 75 80 but i guess he'd  have to be 100 to zero instead catch up uh if  
02:10:52
i'm being that right anyone anyone here cynical  enough to think that there's some operative in   these states holding these on purpose so that  they can be the center of importance tomorrow  
02:11:04
no i just think it's it's almost midnight on  the east coast and people are tired and they're   gonna go home and uh have a [ __ ] shower and  a shave and uh start again tomorrow that's the  
02:11:14
reason gurley is so successful he always girly  always knows how to diagnose the individual
02:11:23
and he motivations diagnose the [ __ ]  out of it by just thinking about what one   guy's motive is and then he's figured the  whole thing out he makes a billion dollars  
02:11:29
overnight master of self-interest bill gurley here's the truth here's what it  comes down to so trump needs to win  
02:11:37
two out of four of these states nevada  pennsylvania wisconsin or michigan  
02:11:43
and um he's got to win two of those four so it's  got to be probably pennsylvania and michigan or  
02:11:50
pennsylvania and wisconsin but he's got to win  if he loses nevada he needs to win two out of  
02:11:56
those three uh rust belt states or he wins nevada  plus like a pennsylvania yeah this is gonna be  
02:12:03
this is gonna be really michigan's gonna go to  trump this is going to come down to pennsylvania  
02:12:08
um and really to the to the philly suburbs i  was reading on twitter uh election official in  
02:12:16
michigan says don't expect results before friday  that's crazy well and by the way i mean so so but  
02:12:24
let's just think for a second how extraordinary  it is that trump looks like he might win michigan   i mean just to go back to the you know  the theory of the of the case that we  
02:12:33
were laying out earlier um about how china about  how trump picked up this this china trade issue  
02:12:40
four years ago and and and this this time he  combined it with the lockdown issue um i mean  
02:12:48
it's really amazing that that state is leaning  trump right now michigan michigan was two issues  
02:12:54
it was uh you know working class democrats feeling  like trump's standing up for them with respect to  
02:13:02
china and it was locked down and lockdown wasn't  it was an overwhelming issue uh you know for my  
02:13:09
for my friends and my folks in michigan  for sure can we go back to prop 22 for   a second jason because i think that this is  um you know this is a uh an issue of extreme  
02:13:23
importance you know one of the things that bill  didn't say is you know we're talking earlier  
02:13:30
chamath brought up you know what's the third way  you know we we we've we've built a social contract  
02:13:37
on the back of kind of w-2 tight employment  for the better part of the last 70 years  
02:13:44
we now have a massive part of the economy this gig  and it's not just this is all freelancers this is  
02:13:50
all part-time workers and postcovid this is just  a massive portion of the economy and the idea  
02:13:55
that we're going to tie all benefits to w-2 it's  just totally asinine it's got to be re-architected  
02:14:02
and what prop 22 does is say it's ic plus  it's independent contractor plus benefits  
02:14:12
right it's this idea that we don't  have to tie benefits to w-2 employment  
02:14:19
right so the nonsensical  no argument against prop 22  
02:14:24
that this was an abandonment of the employee is  just that it combines flexibility with benefits  
02:14:32
and you know from my perspective you're gonna see  if prop 22 passes which i think it will tonight  
02:14:38
it's going to be the architecture that new york  and many other states follow they're certainly not  
02:14:44
going to follow the disastrous ab5 example um but  we also know that it's not sufficient just to have  
02:14:53
uh a bunch of workers with with zero healthcare  and you know and so i think that this is a uh  
02:15:00
you know hats off to doordash instacart you know  uber and lyft trying to trying to design something  
02:15:07
that is a middle way and you know chamath if we  don't have politicians designing a middle way  
02:15:14
right then we need leadership out of the business  community design in a middle way well that  
02:15:19
so you just said something so so profound and i  was gonna i would like to build on that i think  
02:15:25
what california shows is that um if you have  a completely democratic up and down ticket  
02:15:32
and it veers too far to this coastal naval  gazing socialist nanny state then it requires  
02:15:40
money and companies to basically level the  playing field because the republicans can't do it  
02:15:46
and it's possible to fight back and what's  interesting to me is nobody ever talks about  
02:15:54
or or maybe they do and i don't just don't hear  it about how the equivalent happens on the right  
02:16:01
um it'd be interesting to know if you guys know  of any states where there's just republican up   and down the ticket and they just veer into such a  detached laissez faire where the whole state needs  
02:16:12
to get corrected by for-profit organizations but  it's it seems like we're setting up for democrats  
02:16:18
versus companies and people moving to republican  states to have low taxes and to be left alone
02:16:26
well you know it's a sensible set of outcomes in  california right i mean do you guys not agree that  
02:16:31
the uh the the yes on prop 22 and saks it looks  like your commercial property tax proposition  
02:16:39
that zuck helped fund may not pass it's oh  thank us we don't know it's a point one percent  
02:16:46
differential yes which i don't know i agree it's  look the california ballot initiatives are looking   really good right now it gives me a lot of hope  it gives me a lot of hope about the state because  
02:16:56
the most anti-economic the most let's put a  business on friendly ballot initiatives looks   like they're going down starting you know with  the win on prop 22 that's huge but then prop 15  
02:17:07
you know we talked about that on a former um  episode of the all-in pod this was chipping away   at prop 13 which is the great shield of the middle  class in terms of property taxes i'm not saying  
02:17:18
you couldn't get a better tax regime that would  tax commercial property fair market value but you  
02:17:23
sure wouldn't want to give that card away without  demanding some structural reform in exchange for  
02:17:28
it which is why i thought it was just so stupid  for you know tech billionaires to be funding  
02:17:34
you know these these ballot initiatives for higher  taxes you know this is definitely looking like  
02:17:40
like a sensible kind of middle ground outcome  where a lot of folks who were concerned about   california swinging all the way left and chasing  uh business and enterprise out of the state  
02:17:50
um you know maybe kind of getting reeled in and  i think it gives some hope and gives some pause   uh to a lot of folks who are trying to build  businesses in california to recognize that  
02:17:59
you know hey there there is a thoughtful populace  here um totally agree and this is this is a great  
02:18:04
outcome tonight i feel i i personally feel really  good about i i i agree if this sticks it it's um  
02:18:12
it it is because the the big the big issue  with california right now is that we've got   you know people we've got net migration out  of the state because it's just so hard uh for  
02:18:22
for the middle class to live here and to  build businesses here i hope what we hear   you know if if we're fortunate enough for prop  22 to pass i hear we i hope we see a coalition  
02:18:34
among these companies come together and  really promote this as a national architecture  
02:18:42
for a third way for independent  contractors free agents across the country  
02:18:47
uh to have a living wage and benefits it's totally  detached from w2 employment i really do believe  
02:18:55
um a bunch of people on this call will were  helpful to an uh an effort i launched around  
02:19:01
the board challenge you know it's high time for  the social consciousness of corporate america   to take the leadership position and because it's  not coming out of washington and there's so many  
02:19:12
issues that the solution lies among us and we got  to stop spending our election nights wondering  
02:19:18
when somebody's going to deliver us from ourselves  we got to start delivering ourselves i think it's  
02:19:23
a very how do you think you resolve that union i  mean like you know girlies girl are you still with  
02:19:29
us yes how do you resolve things with the unions  after this i mean if prop 22 passes is there a uh  
02:19:37
coming to the middle ground with unions and are  unions always just a kind of directional vector  
02:19:43
you know they're always like a force on the system  they're not an absolute or objective right they're   uh they're just always pushing in one direction  i mean what ends up happening with the resolution  
02:19:53
with unions or is it just a constant back and  forth to try and manage the impact they'll have   on policy politics tax free market etc so from  from my point of view the if you if you think  
02:20:06
about citizens united which a lot of people are  upset about i think rightfully so uh because dc  
02:20:12
is so money oriented like it's coin operated and  a lot of people have vivid awareness of it being  
02:20:20
coin operated on the right through corporations  this is why the most heavily regulated industries  
02:20:27
are the hardest to break into hardest to innovate  against what what i think they missed is how much  
02:20:32
of its right is is his regulatory capture on  the left and the difference that a union has  
02:20:38
versus a company is it's a natural monopoly and  so it actually has more power to write regulation  
02:20:45
than a company does um but and it's going to  be around every single election cycle so if you  
02:20:51
listen to them you know you get what you want and  the you know people have pointed out that the um  
02:20:59
the gentleman or he's not a gentleman the the  individual that that that killed george floyd  
02:21:04
probably wouldn't have been on the force  if it weren't for the union protecting him   because of the stuff he had done before but  and this goes back to the red and blue and  
02:21:13
blindness of just being dogmatic to your party  most of the people i know that are heavily uh  
02:21:20
prescribed to the to the democratic tribe refuse  to acknowledge that one of the big problems in  
02:21:27
police reform comes from the unions and and you  can't see those things unless you take yourself  
02:21:32
out of that single place um i will tell you the  california situation i think is deeper than than  
02:21:38
maybe what brad talked about there the the rule  the law that's causing more companies to leave  
02:21:44
from my perspective than ab5 is something  called paga which was passed about 25 years  
02:21:50
ago but has finally reached momentum where  it's causing problems for companies and  
02:21:55
this was a law passed by um litigators with donor  dollars in sacramento that lets any lawyer bring a  
02:22:03
case on behalf of the state against the company  and so they they're basically like local sheriffs  
02:22:11
just running around bringing claims and of course  they'll settle every time the the the supposed  
02:22:18
victims are getting about 10 percent on average  on packet claims and once your company's been  
02:22:24
shook down on three or four packet claims by  a lawyer who's only going to give 10 cents on   the dollar to these people that used to work for  you you finally just throw up your hands and say  
02:22:34
you know i don't need to hire someone here i  hire someone somewhere else costs twice as much   to hire someone here and so i i do worry that  if any state or country wants to move forward  
02:22:48
in in our new economy they can't just be  completely anti-business anti-tech um that  
02:22:55
i have a strong point of view on that but like it  won't work you're gonna grind to a halt hey jay  
02:23:01
jason can we go back to the senate has anybody  prepared to i'm getting a read from my analysts  
02:23:09
who are live blogging to me that the senate is  almost certain to go republican at this point with  
02:23:14
iowa maine and north carolina going republican  that would do it and michigan and montana both in  
02:23:21
real danger for democrats but even if they lost  both of those um you're going to have 51.49 to  
02:23:28
republicans in the senate hey brad why are markets  trading down a bit right now from where they were  
02:23:36
um i still have it at uh you know nasdaq 280. so  i'm not i'm not prepared to call that down i just  
02:23:44
think that's what they did yeah it's bouncing  and both and bovada i guess which is the um
02:23:51
nevada just came back up they stopped  taking action now they've got trump   uh minus 150 is that how you say it and joe biden  plus 115 so to if you put a hundred dollars on  
02:24:03
joe biden you win 15 is that right and if you  oh you're 100 you win 115. you win 115. right  
02:24:11
you probably win 15 115 is very close jason and  donald trump if you were to put a hundred dollars  
02:24:20
in you make 150. is that right phil hellmuth you  definitely know a 150 to 100. exactly got it okay  
02:24:32
i think the more surprising thing at this point  is it's almost you know i'm certainly going to  
02:24:37
uh live to regret this but it appears at this  point that the market's going to be up tomorrow  
02:24:43
almost either way and if you look at what the  market was saying last week uh you know just yet  
02:24:49
another surprise um the market is celebrating the  fact that this is a close election um but you know  
02:24:57
if it's a uh if it's a contested transfer of power  and we have a you know there's there's certainly  
02:25:03
a lot of room for uncertainty uncertainty to still  be injected into this but it likes the fact that  
02:25:10
we whether it's biden or trump uh who pulls out  the presidency is certainly liking the fact that  
02:25:16
it's going to be a close election right now just  to give people an indication fox news has joe  
02:25:22
biden at 227 electoral votes and trump at 204  the new york times is at 213 and 136 for trump  
02:25:32
the senate on the new york times is 44 dems 45  republicans and i don't know how we're supposed  
02:25:41
to tr who we're supposed to trust here there's  a senate the senate on fox news is 45 democrat  
02:25:49
44 republican so this is a dead heat which i think  could lead us towards the great reconciliation  
02:25:59
which is if trump comes out of office biden  becomes the elder statesman biden reaches across  
02:26:04
the aisle we have a massive balance of power in  the senate everybody's forced to work together  
02:26:11
in order to get anything done am i correct in my  reading of this as a non-political expert well  
02:26:16
what you're describing is the great gerontocracy  we'll have 78 year old biden negotiating 79 year  
02:26:23
old mcconnell and schumer is what 74 75. pelosi's  over 80. cindy hoyer her deputy is over 80.  
02:26:31
so who do we have in the death pool because two  or three of those are dying in the next four years   oh so i don't mean to make it dark but i mean  just looking at mcconnell and his bruised hands  
02:26:43
and lips and everything uh something's eating  him alive i'm not exactly sure what it is but uh  
02:26:48
that's a bad bad scene yeah is that on the betting  markets phil that's not on the betting markets  
02:26:56
and by the way the other direction you're talking  about trump who's 74 negotiating i mean you know  
02:27:01
it's it's we've got to get younger in our  political leadership across the board uh it's  
02:27:08
there it's ridiculous who who had a better chance  of beating trump would bernie elizabeth warren or  
02:27:17
booty judge would one of those three if you had  to pick one of those three and i think it's one   of those reads or you could pick your other which  one would have performed better brad you said  
02:27:26
i was brad on mayor pete for sure i'm with brad on  that one yeah so bill you believe mayor pete would  
02:27:34
have had a better performance he would have been  more inspiring he would have been more energy i i  
02:27:39
think that there is a lot of people that want  what brad talked about which is someone who's  
02:27:46
who's rational and calm and and centered and i  also think that if you look at the history of of  
02:27:52
presidential campaigns um most americans favor  an outsider and i i attribute that to personally  
02:27:59
to them feeling like washington's on the hook and  been bought and you know biden would be an outlier  
02:28:06
for a lifetime senator there was a lot there was  a lot of excitement around obama there was a lot   of excitement about reagan who came you know  from hollywood there was a lot of excitement  
02:28:15
about clinton so you know a lot of governors a  lot of a lot of first-time senators is what you  
02:28:21
tend to see and so pete fit that mold why  some youth and some charisma would be nice  
02:28:29
uh and and david of the two davids and michael  who do you think would have put up the best fight  
02:28:36
because tonight if biden does win and it's  feeling maybe like that it's going to happen  
02:28:43
so it's clearly a jump ball here it's any it's  coming down to the last 30 sec last minute of the  
02:28:48
game if biden does lose who would have been the  candidate that would have beaten trump if there  
02:28:57
was another one who would have had the next best  chance david's well biden's still looking pretty   good right now so i don't know that there i don't  know that there was somebody better but i do agree  
02:29:06
that i always was most impressed with buddha  judge out of the candidates in the sense that  
02:29:13
i thought he was the most articulate i thought  he was the best debater i thought he was the best   on tv and he knew how to reach for the center and  he had the kind of obama thing of having identity  
02:29:24
politics working for him but  without making a big deal out of it   um and um and so yeah i mean what you mean by  that mr sachs well he's he's gay he'd be the  
02:29:35
first gay president but he's not making that  an explicit part of the reason to vote for him  
02:29:41
and but it would have been a first and his voters  would know that but he doesn't want to you know   he doesn't want to run on the idea of identity  politics and so so he's not leading with that he's  
02:29:50
not leading with it i think that's a smart way to  play it it's you know obama was obviously being an  
02:29:55
incredibly important first but he didn't lead with  that as the reason why you should vote for him  
02:30:01
um so to a certain extent hillary did lead with  that hillary was going to be there i'm with her  
02:30:06
you know her was the slogan yeah and i think a lot  of people did want to make that first but i think  
02:30:13
you have those votes you need to make the case  to everybody else so yeah i think he he's a great  
02:30:20
political athlete and um you know someone's got  probably a bright future in the democratic party  
02:30:26
i'm seeing some people on twitter say that biden's  now becoming the favorite but i just checked   betfair it's uh basically 1.1 it's very close now  kind of crazy this is going to come down to one  
02:30:37
this is going to come down to pennsylvania and  michigan and it's going to take days to do those   counts and we're probably going to end up in the  courts who would have done a better job here look  
02:30:49
i mean the market already voted right it voted for  for biden he is the the leading candidate i don't  
02:30:55
know if anyone else would have outperformed biden  at this point i think you know the next in line   was a very different ideology and that's bernie  and um you know bernie really is the contrast to  
02:31:07
um you know the points that we were making earlier  you either think that the way forward is to have  
02:31:13
the government leave me alone or to wrap me up in  a blanket and give me a hot cocoa and rub my feet  
02:31:18
and bernie sanders is the you know the guy  in middle school who runs for class president   and tells you the vending machines are  all going to be free if you elect me  
02:31:27
um and that's a broadly you know like everyone  votes for that guy and let me uh let me ask you  
02:31:34
a question brad that i build off of david i just  think the mayor pete by the way let me just say i   think mayor pete is a great articulate thoughtful  guy and he's certainly appealing to those of us  
02:31:44
who want to have a thoughtful well-articulated  response to the problems we're facing   but i think that there is a guttural kind of you  know innate um drive that folks want they either  
02:31:53
want free [ __ ] or they want to be left alone  and you know you you're going to need to appeal   to one of those two motives brad how would you  have voted had your choice been and i'm going  
02:32:04
to go around the horn on this so everybody gets  a chance to think about it except really brad   brad if you had the choice yep elizabeth warren  slash bernie hardcore socialist let's go with  
02:32:16
bernie since i think he's even more on the  socialist side or trump could you have conceived  
02:32:22
of voting for trump over bernie or would you  have voted actually voted for bernie sanders  
02:32:30
take your time and you can think out loud when  you answer no i mean i i have to say that um you  
02:32:36
know i have a nine and 12 year old boy boys and  um the conversation we had is it's not just about  
02:32:45
what you stand for it's about how you stand for  it character it's character and i just couldn't  
02:32:51
tolerate uh trump's character either in  my own life my own level of anxiety or  
02:32:57
or standing for that you know and and telling  my boys that that's a okay way to lead  
02:33:05
and so for me i was willing to vote against my own  interests and taking comfort in the fact that four  
02:33:13
years under any president is not enough to really  change the arc of uh of of the country um but to  
02:33:21
send a signal that you know how you lead matters  in this country and uh a rejection of this form of  
02:33:27
leadership yeah but brad if you didn't think that  bernie sanders policies would actually i mean if  
02:33:32
you thought they would actually pass everything  you wanted to do you couldn't conceive that   of voting for trump yeah i mean you know again  like i would just say that i would have bet that  
02:33:43
the system that we have would have been slow  enough in moving that that bernie would not  
02:33:49
have been you know that when weighing those two  evils right that you know again for me socialism  
02:33:56
versus trump are your twitter i can i can tolerate  the mean-spiritedness perhaps myself um but you  
02:34:02
know like i'm trying to you know i think it is  important that we we say that like this is not  
02:34:08
what we stand for this is not a an honorable  way to lead and and certainly when it comes to  
02:34:14
sitting around the dinner table every night and  talking to them about the way i expect them to   behave in their form of leadership you know that  that mean-spiritedness just didn't work for me  
02:34:23
would anybody else like to answer that question  or is it just well i'm not going to disagree with   any of that but i would just like to point out  i'd like to ask a question actually which is  
02:34:32
if if this president was so bad that he had to  be impeached why wasn't that a campaign issue  
02:34:39
i don't remember being mentioned once by biden  that trump was impeached you would think that  
02:34:46
impeaching the president would be something  you'd want to make a major campaign issue   so i just think this idea that trump is the only  one who's dishonest and unethical um you know that  
02:34:57
whole russian insane hoax that they put us through  for years they put this whole country through  
02:35:04
before the guy even took office they were trying  to delegitimize his election i mean come on you  
02:35:10
can't just look at trump's behavior which i agree  is outrageous and not look at the other side and  
02:35:15
say they're doing the same thing and this is  like a they're they're sort of like co-equal  
02:35:22
partners in this chaos that's been uh created  david let's suppose they're co-founders in chaos  
02:35:28
let's be candid all these politicians that we've  had to live with in our lifetime are grifters we   know that and their kids are grifters putting  that aside do you think there is any chance  
02:35:38
that the russians have not bought an inordinate  amount of apartments from donald trump at  
02:35:43
extraordinary prices are you just making that up  or i mean i'm just going with my gut right here  
02:35:52
yeah qed case in point because you feel it you  can now make an accusation that the president  
02:35:58
has received bribes from the russians i  mean come on well we know and actually i   i want to i want to bring up the election we  all know putin interfered with the election  
02:36:06
and we all know he interfered on behalf of  one candidate okay i i i honestly unless you  
02:36:12
don't trust the cia unless you don't trust the  fbi unless you don't trust our agents really   i mean you believe you're still holding the  russians every election we've ever had jason
02:36:25
we have bob mueller with a team of like 18   like pitbull democratic prosecutors and  50 specialists what happened to matthew  
02:36:33
fbi agents let me finish who investigated for two  years and they couldn't find any collusion i mean  
02:36:40
and you're still hanging on to this this insane  fallacy and you're wondering why the american  
02:36:46
people are turning against why they're  willing to vote for trump again come on  
02:36:51
can't you see the insanity of the other side  well i mean i did see manafort go to jail and  
02:36:56
pay a 25 30 million dollar fine and i did see that  trump's kids took the meeting with the russians  
02:37:04
to try to set up a secret back channel so  while they might not have been smart enough   or effective enough to actually collude there  certainly was a lot of graph going on this is  
02:37:13
this is this is on the level if not worse than  the whole hunter biden hard drive story which i   thought was 100 which i thought was a ridiculous  story an attempt to smear up biden come on for you  
02:37:27
to lay this integrity issue on trump alone which  i agree there's some truth there and not lay it on  
02:37:35
his democratic inquisitors in the senate who put  in the house who put us through this impeachment  
02:37:41
hooks for two years come on we're starting to  sound a little like am radio let's get it we did  
02:37:46
go there no sax is a free thinker i like this he's  a free thinker but it's like you guys but we're  
02:37:51
but this word impeachment this entire campaign  all sacks is saying is own both sides of this uh
02:38:04
can you say the word impeachment  impeachment i just said okay there we go   i was wondering what happened to  that word you know normally no i know
02:38:18
nick can you please throw  georgia back on the map please   are you guys seeing this that that now they're  tipping georgia back to uh biden who is
02:38:33
this is insane where well they're  also saying that arizona may have   been prematurely called for biden so  arizona may be back in play for trump
02:38:45
that was really weird that they  called arizona so early wasn't it   and only fox only fox has done it i think yeah  nick where do you have how do you have georgia  
02:38:53
reporting right now how much is in right now uh  yeah click on georgia just for a second we have 81  
02:39:00
percent yeah the times had it flip on at 9 13 p.m  i have a screenshot which shows biden plus four  
02:39:07
and then north carolina is now just trump plus  1.1 michael well in arizona when they show that  
02:39:13
everybody's reporting it's precincts reporting  right it doesn't show uh mail-ins or by precinct  
02:39:19
or mail-ins or at the state level well a precinct  will have both mail-ins and uh election day votes  
02:39:28
and when they and when they say 81 of  precincts reporting that doesn't mean that 81  
02:39:33
of precincts are finished reporting it's a very  misleading uh number because what it means that  
02:39:41
81 percent of precincts have reported what they  have but it doesn't mean they're finished counting  
02:39:47
necessarily right so you know atlanta is probably  the precincts in atlanta have probably reported  
02:39:53
some vote in fact we we see that when we click on  it but there's obviously a lot of outstanding vote  
02:39:59
in georgia there could be outstanding vote uh in  some precincts in north carolina as well and they  
02:40:04
at this point once you get into the 95 and above  range they do tend to be uh urban centers that are  
02:40:12
that obviously have a lot more vote to count it  gets late at night they go home uh they finish in  
02:40:18
the morning or three days later if you go zoom in  on arizona please 76 percent of voting reporting  
02:40:25
i mean how is this possible 54 basically i don't  know but in all those things you're going to have  
02:40:31
the intensity you had around hanging chads in  dade county you're just gonna have like massive  
02:40:38
tension and drama around counting each of these  last things yeah we're gonna have five floridas  
02:40:46
you knew 2020 would do this on the way out the  door yeah so so arizona they counted all the   absentee ballots for the mail-in ballots first  but the in-person voting hasn't been counted yet  
02:40:56
so you can't call that state if they haven't  counted all the in-person because trump's going   to do better with you know election day ballots  i agree it's pretty premature well it depends  
02:41:05
on whether they're considering phoenix is part  of that right okay why is nevada only reporting  
02:41:12
one percent yeah local news there are now  groups of people gathering at oakland city hall  
02:41:20
so they they go there when like
02:41:26
what night aren't they riding  in oakland i mean come on   in berkeley they smashed a pizzeria window they do  it every other week hey hey guys i wanna i wanna  
02:41:36
just discuss an idea i have that might be a little  bit cheeky but since jkl and i were getting into   it before i kind of wanna i want to talk about it  a little bit um okay let's do it which is i i've  
02:41:48
called the trump derangement score um which is  if you go to twitter that yeah trump derangement  
02:41:55
score which is if you go to twitter and search  trump from your username it'll show you how many  
02:42:03
tweets you've you've published that you've posted  that mention the word trump and um so i did this  
02:42:09
before the show to see which bestie had tweeted  the most and see what the score was and my sense  
02:42:15
is like if your your score is like zero to ten  you haven't really paid a lot of attention to  
02:42:21
trump it's probably like very healthy and  then if you're in like the 10 to 30 range  
02:42:26
you're paying a little bit more attention but this  could be a normal interesting here it comes here
02:42:35
hold on if you're in like the 30 to 50 range i  think you pretty much are infected there's two  
02:42:41
strains there's kind of the magus strain and  then there's the resistance strain but clearly   you've tested positive for trump derangement  syndrome and then i would say there's kind of  
02:42:52
like an advanced level where um you can't even  count how many tweets there are you've got to  
02:42:57
like scroll and like you keep scrolling and  you can't even get to the bottom and that's   that's like a level of infection where you  need to immediately quarantine yourself  
02:43:05
and um so anyway i i i did this and uh anyway the  winner actually was freeberg freeburg only had  
02:43:13
he had a score of one he literally only had one  tweet mentioning trump for the last four years i  
02:43:20
only had eight but in fairness five of them were  posted yesterday to advertise this this pod so
02:43:28
um my one was during this podcast by the way   yeah jamaat at 20. i had 12.  you had about 20 about 20 yeah  
02:43:38
and then jkl you you were in scrolling territory  i couldn't even i couldn't even count i gave up
02:43:46
well i i feel for you i really feel for you  that you're hurting over this election like  
02:43:52
you know i don't like i'm not trying to make  fun of you or see you hey guys guys another  
02:43:57
just another quick update here that um uh dekalb  county fulton county and cobb county in georgia  
02:44:04
are pro-democrat they're huge uh and they're  at 31 58 and 70 and if you play these  
02:44:14
out there's somewhere between 400 and 500  000 uh potential incremental votes for biden  
02:44:26
which would eke out georgia for biden  potentially according to just this last
02:44:34
just looking at fox news i think that they're  trolling the libs because they have trump at 210  
02:44:44
and they have joe biden at 237 uh the the new york  times has let me just make sure i'm refreshing  
02:44:52
here and have the latest data 213 to 145. so  fox is aggressively calling electoral votes
02:45:03
at a level that the new york times is is far behind  like behind by 50 at least a hundred  
02:45:16
what what is the explanation of this wow  uh i this is i mean this is that's um  
02:45:24
msnbc 205 electoral votes for joe biden which  uh nbc has been the most conservative overall  
02:45:33
what happens if it's tied it can tie right  we still have that scenario on the table   269 269 uh uh yeah there's probably a way to  to get there uh let's see well interestingly  
02:45:47
uh biden did not get that one district in omaha  nebraska that he had targeted that obama won  
02:45:55
his first time that would give you one electoral  vote in in nebraska nebraska and maine both you  
02:46:02
get you get uh two for winning the state and you  get one for each of the congressional districts so  
02:46:08
while while biden was not going to play in  overall in nebraska he had a shot at omaha  
02:46:13
and that 270 268 scenario we talked about  earlier could have potentially been 269  
02:46:19
269 if that omaha district was in play but the  polling really missed michael just to jump in  
02:46:25
uh bg girl girly's gotta hop off boys say  bye girl thanks for having me i appreciate it
02:46:35
speaking of bill gurley uh how about texas  i mean i think i think texas is definitely   going to be republican right michael yeah  that one's trending far away from biden he  
02:46:45
looks like he's down about 500 thousand how many  points is that no one's called that yet right   it's bizarre that florida and texas are  still listed as uh uh right so that could  
02:46:54
explain what jkl's looking at between the  disparity and yeah i don't blame fox if  
02:47:00
if fox called texas i don't blame them but i think  arizona yeah that might that might that would   explain your difference jacob texas and florida  yeah fox yeah that's 60 67 votes right there  
02:47:13
yeah that explains it yeah so the new york times  has not called florida or texas the new york times  
02:47:19
had florida at 98 percent i think it's like 99.59  or something right if you add uh 38 for texas  
02:47:26
29 for florida you're 67 67 until the 145  puts you at 212. and joe biden at 2 13.  
02:47:36
which was one point difference ralph warnock  and kelly loffler and a runoff for the senate  
02:47:41
seat in georgia that's just incredible i mean hey  guys a comment and then a question uh looks like  
02:47:47
the washington post is projecting that california  approved prop 22. yeah um so there is a uh that's  
02:47:55
the first one is that due to uber speaking  right now i think right do we have to try is   not speaking yet but he's he's getting applied  to speak the implied volatility on uber stock  
02:48:06
at the close today was 14 but by the way every  ballot initiative in san francisco the city level  
02:48:11
ballot initiatives passed one of them the prop h  was good all the rest were a disaster so stanford  
02:48:17
so the the state-level ballot initiatives were  pretty good news for california but san francisco  
02:48:22
okay not much so you know in in terms of what  we were talking about earlier about creating  
02:48:27
a more busi business friendly environment  unfortunately what happened in san francisco   i think california as a whole is positive  with prop 22 prop 15 failing um but every  
02:48:39
single crazy ballot initiative in san francisco  pass so it's just getting crazier and i don't  
02:48:44
know if you did this in your household but with  my ten-year-old brad i went through my wife and   i jade we we went through each of the uh ballot  initiatives as many as we could we listened to  
02:48:55
little encapsulations of what they were and we  talked about the stem cell one and i just thought  
02:49:02
why is california which is losing all of these  businesses adding to the tax burden stem cell  
02:49:12
research and why isn't that being done by  the private sector if there is a huge prize  
02:49:18
to be had with stem cell why would we have  california send billions of dollars on this  
02:49:24
when we're losing all the this government i'm  wondering uh you know how how people thought   about something like that like the stem cell  did you vote for that david to continue to  
02:49:35
have california flip the bill for stuff by the  way just before you answer david i took the   pages of the ballot initiative and i use them to  keep my white truffles from developing humidity  
02:49:46
i mean basically the truth of the matter jason  is that when when i don't understand a ballot   initiative i just vote against it and i didn't  really understand that the stem cell balance  
02:49:56
initiative or why even why if that was a spending  priority why it couldn't just be handled by the  
02:50:01
state you know the legislature i didn't understand  why that needed to be a ballot initiative so you  
02:50:07
know i feel like ballot initiative like i'll  support them when this in the state legislature   does something wrong like 202 is a perfect example  where you know lorraine or whatever the had this  
02:50:17
tremendous amount of power passed this crazy ab5  and the people had to overrule that um so i feel  
02:50:24
like that's where like these balances make sense  is when you want to overrule the legislature but  
02:50:29
you know it's kind of crazy for to be passing  these laws directly when you know we don't know   that much about them concur i mean the founders  had this vision of representative democracy not  
02:50:41
direct democracy and that's generally a good idea  so jason i don't know you have to kind of like  
02:50:47
what director the results that direct democracy  has produced tonight the initiatives may be saving   us from ourselves since we don't have in this  state unfortunately a viable republican party  
02:50:57
to represent us uh this the initiatives may be our  last line of defense well i think i think you're  
02:51:03
right in terms of overruling things but like  in in san francisco you know every single about   initiative path and i think most of them are well  there's no saving san francisco we all knew that  
02:51:14
well i don't like hearing that come to  l.a baby we got a few more years at least  
02:51:21
um what is the consensus viewer seems to be the  markets are still up nasdaq futures up 280 still  
02:51:29
what what causes us to wake up tomorrow  or the next day and have the futures down  
02:51:38
three four five hundred bits there's there's  one thing and so far it hasn't happened and if   we avoid it we're going to fade a really big out  here um which is trump declares victory right now
02:51:54
i think that is the disaster scenario because i  think biden's gonna get up there he's not going  
02:52:00
to say much of anything he'll be very kind of  down the middle you know kind of let's take a   wait and see approach we're waiting until  tomorrow there's a lot to go grind it out  
02:52:09
blah blah blah but if trump comes out and says we  won we're done let's move on it's going to be uh  
02:52:16
panic because look i mean he's you can't certify  georgia apparently right so you know there's a  
02:52:24
there's a path where there's seven or eight states  that have to go through on a meticulous recount  
02:52:30
i think this thing is back to a coin flip i  mean trump now has to win georgia michigan  
02:52:37
and pennsylvania in order to win the presidency  if biden wins any one of those three states he  
02:52:43
wins he has to be a three for three in georgia  pennsylvania and michigan three four three and now  
02:52:52
well but we're saying that may they may become  ungod um so if if he loses georgia he loses  
02:52:58
if he loses pennsylvania he loses michigan he  loses assuming he's already um lost wisconsin  
02:53:06
and um and arizona so hey guys biden's coming  out but my analysts just run this analysis  
02:53:14
if biden wins ann arbor and detroit  by the same percentage as 2016  
02:53:20
that's 420 000 biden incremental votes versus  the three hundred thousand current trump lead  
02:53:27
right just implying he wins michigan  we feel good about where we are  
02:53:34
we really do i'm here to tell you tonight we  believe we're on track to win this election
02:53:48
we knew because of the unprecedented early  vote in a mail-in vote that's going to take  
02:53:53
a while we're going to have to be patient until  we the hard work of tallying votes is finished  
02:54:00
and it ain't over until every vote  is counted every ballot is counted
02:54:10
but we're feeling good we're feeling  good about where we are we believe one  
02:54:16
of the nets has suggested we've already won  arizona but we're confident about arizona  
02:54:21
that's a turnaround we also just called it from  minnesota and we're still in the game in georgia  
02:54:29
although that's not one we expected and we're  feeling real good about wisconsin and michigan
02:54:40
and by the way it's going to take time to  count the votes we're going to win pennsylvania  
02:54:49
come on there it is talking folks in philly  allegheny county scranton and they're really  
02:54:54
encouraged by the turnout of what they  see look you know we can know the results  
02:55:00
as early as tomorrow morning but it may  take a little longer as i've said all along  
02:55:06
it's not my place or donald trump's  place to declare who's won this election   that's the decision of the american people  but i'm optimistic about this outcome  
02:55:17
and i want to thank every one of you who came  out and voted in this election and by the way   chris coons and the democrats congratulations  here in delaware hey john you're the gov yeah  
02:55:32
like the whole team man you've done a great  job i'm grateful to the poll workers to our  
02:55:38
volunteers our canvassers everyone who  participated in this democratic process  
02:55:43
and i'm grateful to all of my supporters  here in delaware and all across the nation  
02:55:48
thank you thank you thank you and folks you  heard me say it before every time i walk out  
02:55:55
of my grandpa's house up in scranton he yelled  joey keep the faith and my grandma when she was  
02:56:01
laughing oh no joey spread it keep the faith guys  we're gonna win this thank you thank you thank you  
02:56:09
oh my god well there you go guys before before  before we just i just want to give a big shout   out and thank you to brad gerstner um thanks brian  incredible investor and person and thinker thank  
02:56:20
you bg for uh being on the call thanks for having  me guys really appreciate it incredible and thanks  
02:56:25
to bill gurley who stepped in and phil hellmuth  uh this has been a great first time effort uh  
02:56:32
we we we had uh i think about 4 000 of you at the  peak here and and certainly five or six thousand  
02:56:39
over the night this was an experiment i think a  successful one um and of course i'm speaking about  
02:56:45
this country america what a successful experiment  it has been jason jason you can unclench  
02:56:54
your your nether regions because i think we're  going to be okay you think we're going to be   okay yeah it's very tight anyway see you guys  good night thank you yeah all right thank you  
02:57:03
i'm changing my prediction to scenario three  biden president let's do that as we rap besties
02:57:11
i'm still sticking with biden i'm still sticking  with biden okay trump just tweeted that i will  
02:57:17
be making a statement tonight a big win so we  we're either in scenarios well i mean two three  
02:57:23
and four two three and four are all still four  just for i don't know if the viewers remember   scenario one was a buying landslide that's  clearly not happening two was um was basically  
02:57:34
um what was was um trump pulling a big upset  that's still on the table i'd say probably  
02:57:41
49 chance for right now 40 45 chance uh  then you've kind of got the scenario three  
02:57:48
was the soft landing where biden wins the  presidency but the republicans take the uh  
02:57:53
the senate and i think it's probably like the 51  and then scenario four was the [ __ ] show that  
02:57:59
was a totally inconclusive outcome and here we  are here we are so i mean the reality is i think  
02:58:05
this thing i mean i think it's probably at the end  of the day 51 49 in favor of biden right now but  
02:58:12
we probably have at least three more  days and maybe a bunch of court cases   yeah this could this could be really bad i mean  we may not know who the winner is until december  
02:58:21
and this may require another supreme court  case i think we'll know within a week who won  
02:58:27
but it's going to be a it's going to be a white  knuckle kind of week yeah well no i think we're  
02:58:32
gonna know it tomorrow yeah exactly i think we're  gonna know tomorrow i'm with trump i i i guess   you know i guess based on the electoral map i'd  say it's 51 49 in favor of biden at this moment  
02:58:42
okay so sax wants biden to win uh friedberg  where are you at the end of this [ __ ] show  
02:58:51
i was known as 2020. i was looking at  which island in hawaii i want to go to
02:58:57
i'm looking at austin and then  just to uh look at our final
02:59:03
the dots are getting a little better for trump  i wonder yeah who the hell knows yeah this has  
02:59:09
been an incredible evening i feel better about  the market reaction i feel like you know those   of us who operate businesses and try and build  businesses and you know have employees and all  
02:59:18
the stuff i mean i'm disappointed in san francisco  it's a [ __ ] [ __ ] show of the city but uh i  
02:59:23
feel good about the fact that markets are taking  this well and it you know means businesses will   continue to operate and find funding and shout out  bill lee in hawaii muthi what's your pick and then  
02:59:35
j cal and then we're we're going to bounce yeah  i have to go with the math i think trump a dollar   60 is pretty significant so i have to pick that  direction and i'm going by all right everybody  
02:59:46
this has been a special edition of the love  you besties thank you michael thank you thanks   for having me i enjoyed it thank you later guys  the poker table soon hopefully soon yes bye bye

Badges

This episode stands out for the following:

  • 80
    Most shocking
  • 80
    Most unpredictable
  • 80
    Most polarizing
  • 75
    Most intense

Episode Highlights

  • Polling Inaccuracies
    Pollsters underestimated key demographics, leading to surprising election outcomes.
    “The polls are miles off on this and this is just amazing.”
    @ 07m 22s
    November 04, 2020
  • Polling Adjustments Since 2016
    Pollsters have adjusted their methods to account for education levels, improving accuracy.
    “The biggest thing that polls fixed was how they adjust their polls by education.”
    @ 26m 28s
    November 04, 2020
  • Impact of Lockdowns on Voting Behavior
    The insistence on lockdowns may have significantly influenced voter sentiment against Biden.
    “Lockdowns is the biggest reason why [Trump could win].”
    @ 36m 32s
    November 04, 2020
  • The Stakes of the Election
    The election outcome could signify a shift in American political dynamics.
    “If Trump wins again, it will lay waste to the Democratic establishment.”
    @ 51m 50s
    November 04, 2020
  • Tension in America
    Political tensions have escalated, leading to violence and division.
    “We have not witnessed Americans shooting each other in the street over politics.”
    @ 01h 09m 02s
    November 04, 2020
  • Disconnect in Political Priorities
    Voters in the Rust Belt feel ignored by coastal elites, leading to a protest vote against Democrats.
    “This is a massive upset by Trump and a misread by the progressives.”
    @ 01h 21m 29s
    November 04, 2020
  • Public Rebellion Against Experts
    Two elections in a row signal a revolt against perceived biases of experts.
    “This is a validation of those who are flipping the middle finger at Washington.”
    @ 01h 34m 42s
    November 04, 2020
  • Empathy for the Disenfranchised
    A call for understanding those feeling shut out of the political system.
    “What do we do tomorrow?”
    @ 01h 46m 54s
    November 04, 2020
  • Political Dynamics in Michigan
    Analyzing Trump's potential success in Michigan and its implications.
    “It's really amazing that that state is leaning Trump right now.”
    @ 02h 12m 48s
    November 04, 2020
  • Senate Predictions
    Analysts predict the Senate is almost certain to go Republican, impacting future legislation.
    “It's almost certain the Senate will go Republican at this point.”
    @ 02h 23m 09s
    November 04, 2020
  • Character in Leadership
    A discussion on the importance of character in leadership, especially regarding Trump.
    “Character matters; I couldn't tolerate Trump's character.”
    @ 02h 32m 36s
    November 04, 2020
  • Biden's Election Night Speech
    Biden expresses optimism about the election outcome, emphasizing patience in counting votes.
    “It's not my place or Donald Trump's place to declare who's won this election.”
    @ 02h 54m 49s
    November 04, 2020

Episode Quotes

Key Moments

  • Market Flips02:16
  • Electoral College Dynamics29:26
  • Lockdowns Impact36:32
  • Loaded Question1:47:57
  • Clinton Strategy1:58:41
  • Gig Economy2:14:12
  • Election Count Delays2:30:37
  • Ballot Initiatives2:48:39

Words per Minute Over Time

Vibes Breakdown

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