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hey everybody hey everybody welcome to another
all-in podcast we just got the show notes and i'm
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ripping them up because the president has the
rona we knew this was a possibility we had an
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incredible docket brewing but as fate loves irony
we found out on wednesday night i believe just
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in a brief timeline here wednesday night uh hope
hicks is a personal assistant uh got the rona and
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then of course um president trump announced late
last night that he in fact had the rona and that
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his uh wife melania also had the coronavirus
so with us today to discuss all things tech
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politics and coronavirus david friedberg david
sachs and bestie c chamoth paulie hoppatia
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are with us uh i guess maybe we'll just drop it
right to you freedberg you you are our um science
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kid here in the class uh what is when we look at
the president's um physique he's clinically obese
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technically i'm not saying that to be cruel
but he's a 74 year old who's clinically obese
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and snorts adderall we don't know that that's
just a claim um but seriously what what is the
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prognosis here and then my i understand he's now
got a experimental treatment was just announced an
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hour ago uh the taping of this on friday afternoon
and of course we wish them all the greatest speedy
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recovery et cetera but let's get right let's
get into the facts here i think the the overall
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mortality rate for um someone of his age is then
call it the two to four percent range right and
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for someone with with you know he's not known to
have diabetes or high blood pressure but generally
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you can kind of say there's some risk factors
may be associated um so a couple points but the
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reality is the treatment that he got is one that's
not available to the public and is effectively
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like creating these uh you know uh taking these
antibodies to the coronavirus and he got a eight
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grams of this immunoglobulin therapy um that is
basically a bunch of antibodies that'll eliminate
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the virus and they're not um widely available
they're not publicly available these treatments
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but uh you know uh based on the early trials and
the general experience with using synthetic and
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you know polyclonal antibodies for
uh infectious uh disease like this
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it's pretty effective and he should kind of uh
you know recover pretty quickly i would imagine so
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him dying would basically be a two-out or
him getting this special treatment makes it a
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a one outer if we were talking about this in
poker terms uh chamath when you when you look
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at this turn of events and you saw the news what
was your first thought um that it's now basically
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a hundred percent guaranteed that we will have all
of the most transparent data about coronavirus um
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soon so for example you know we we've been
in this position where we've been debating
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hydroxychloroquine we've been debating these um
you know all of these different uh regimens um and
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the reality is the president of the united states
if he doesn't get the absolute top-notch care
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um we're all in some ways [ __ ] so it's it's
probably likely that he's going to get the thing
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that folks know to work and then it'll be hard
for everybody else to not want to ask for that and
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then it's going to be even harder for everybody
to then not get some version of it and so
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i think probably we're going to de-escalate a
little bit of mass stuff of testing stuff of you
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know what the right course of care is and you know
frankly i'll be honest with you i hope you know i
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i wouldn't vote for him but i hope he's well um
i don't want anything to happen to the guy um
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and i hope that he recovers and it you know he
kicks it in the ass and that um whatever he took
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to get better everybody else can get it too all
right sax coming around the horn here talking
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about the political ramifications of this you
were feeling that uh trump was likely to lose
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uh but here we are with the october surprise
and i hate to make this uh handicapping of the
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election but this certainly is gonna have some
impact so with your rain man mind and when you
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go through this deck of cards here what does your
brain how do you assess this as uh the rain man
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is this un going to be a net positive for
his election um results a negative neutral
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handicap this for us in your mind you
must be thinking through this and and
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again disclaimers we all want him to get better
nobody wishes him out i'm sure some people do but
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i'm saying i'm seeing a lot of uh glee frankly on
on twitter yeah a lot of people saying i told you
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so or karma's a [ __ ] or something like that yeah
um you know sort of implying that trump getting
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this was was a moral failing you know um and uh
so you know certainly a lot of people are kind
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of reveling in it um i think he was certainly
careless i mean he didn't wear masks he said
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he didn't like to wear a mask so well i mean do
you wear a mask inside your house no but if i was
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in walking around at a a debate or something like
that if i was on an airplane with 20 people yeah i
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would wear a mask actually i mean you know there
were certainly a lot of precautions around the
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president i mean more than most people i mean any
of us could get it from anybody yeah you know um
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if you know our wife happens to go out to meet a
friend for lunch or something like that and then
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brings it back so there's almost no amount of
carefulness you can do to completely avoid this
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unless you're willing to kind of lock yourself
alone somewhere um so i just you know this idea
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that somehow getting cove is a moral failing
is is what i would take issue with it's not um
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it's not altogether unlike the crazy things that
um the religious right was saying in the 1980s
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like you know about aids like when you know
jerry falwell said it was god's punishment
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or something like that trying to imply that the
gay plague i mean let's just call it what it is
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they basically said they implied somehow that this
was um you know some sort of uh just comeuppance
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you know or something like a retribution from god
contribution exactly exactly and and you know the
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virus doesn't know who it's infecting obviously
it doesn't target sinners or whatever and so
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i just think that um you know this all this this
sort of gleeful um sort of blaming us going around
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um is is inappropriate and i think it could
really backfire if um if trump rapidly gets
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better i mean if trump is better in say a week
um and is hitting the campaign trail again you
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know what what previously will have appeared to be
a moral failing could it could now be argued would
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be a moral strength since he you know overcame
it so easily and um you know so i think that
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if if he rapidly recovers from this and hits the
campaign trail again it's going to make him look
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strong i think that if he has a hard time with the
virus if it's innervating the way that i think it
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took out boris johnson i mean i've heard british
commentators say that boris johnson's just not
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not even the same doesn't have the same level
of energy even now than he did behind before
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the virus then i would think he could really hurt
trump in the last you know this campaign look we
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i think we all know people um i'm sure you guys do
i do who have gone through this and they all say
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the same thing which is this thing really sucks
now there are all these people that say oh it's
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like dancing on tulips or daffodils i've never
encountered a single person like that i see that
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um i see that maybe on twitter or a friend of a
friend but all of my friends who've gotten it they
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have really struggled through it some of these
people are older some of these people are younger
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some of these people are healthy some of these
people are not and consistently they say the
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same thing which is that there's a couple of days
where it literally feels like your chest is being
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uh pounded inside you you can't move
you're just in pain and then afterwards
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the aftermath is you're at you know 50 60 70
percent of your lung capacity like it it does
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for a couple of weeks i mean doc says a friend of
ours and he was very public with his experience
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he tried to avoid it as best he could he got
hit with it he got hit hard and he said he felt
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like he was gonna die it was the worst thing he's
ever experienced i i have friends that that still
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complain two three four months after the fact that
they're at 50 60 of cardiovascular capacity and
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you know these these people that i that i'm
specifically thinking about were really healthy
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going into coronavirus and so i i don't know i
just think it's something none of us want um i
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don't think you would want to wish this on anybody
of course not yet you know especially frankly the
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president of the united states has a role um
and so i think folks just need to sort of like
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class up here um and hope that we figure out
that he a gets the best care and then b we all
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know what it is and then c that we can get access
to it too that's that's i honestly i think that's
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all we should be wishing did you see did you see
the letter they published and what he's getting
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so they go ahead and read it go ahead and read
the free breakfast the doc the doctor published
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it was not too long ago right jason i saw it
on youtube it just happened like an hour ago i
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tweeted it yesterday so he got he got eight grams
of polyclonal antibodies this is the regeneron
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formulation so basically they've isolated the
antibodies that neutralize coronavirus that
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patients have presented in their body and then
they use recombinant dna technology to produce
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those antibodies synthetically so it's a bunch of
antibody proteins and then they turn it into an
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injection into a formula that they can put in your
body and you now have effectively neutralizing
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antibodies so they gave him eight grams which is
a pretty high dose and it gets it you know goes in
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intravenously you can have sometimes an allergic
reaction to that but it seems like he was fine
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from that because they didn't announce an allergic
reaction and then uh you know the the antibodies
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are now in his bloodstream and they bind to
the virus so any virus that's floating around
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immediately gets wiped out it gets eliminated
from the body so theoretically this is the way
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we should treat all infectious diseases that's
right and i do think that by the way i do and
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i've written about this i think that is the future
of infectious disease is we're all going to get a
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polyclonal cocktail every year instead of getting
a flu shot you get a bunch of antibodies to
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all the new stuff that's emerging and it wipes
out this david just think about this there was
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so much raging debate that got politicized between
the left between the right between different folks
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of people who believed in different things around
what the right course of care was there was no
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single source of truth i'll just say this again
when you treat the president of the united states
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and he gets better that is canonical single
source of truth i'm sorry but there can be
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no debate after that that the smartest people
with the access to all of the research i mean
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let's be clear you don't think a call went out
last night before they deployed the nuclear
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warhead stuff to all of the um r d labs and all
the big pharma companies and said what do you got
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and the answer came back at the top of the ticket
was this regeneron cocktail yeah they had they
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definitely have made that call before to prep for
this but yeah totally agree now um when you say
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it highlights what the future of infectious
disease treatment is and should be which is
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that all of us should be getting a booster shot
every year of synthetically produced antibodies
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uh that will counteract any new infectious disease
floating around in the world and we're getting to
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the point in the next 10 15 years that that should
be reality for everyone yeah it highlights that
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but it also highlights that in the absence of
the most powerful man in the world getting the
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sickness that we're all gonna basically [ __ ] and
point fingers about what the right solution is and
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so it can't be the case that the next time there's
a crazy illness that's floating around in society
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we need to go and target you know five or six of
the leaders of the g8 plus the pope plus this plus
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that beyonce heaven forbid you know what i mean
like this is crazy yeah this can't this can't
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be how we find single source of truth yeah well
i think if i think politically speaking i think
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there's a lot of upside here for trump if he does
get better in a week i mean if these polyclonal
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antibodies work then and he emerges from the
white house you know if it is a fiddle in a week
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he's going to say the cure is here you know i
was right you don't even need a vaccine the cure
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is here it's over and um and all the i told you
so's might might flip around would that be from
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the truth david well if the police anybody's work
i mean then it's just a matter of scaling them
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can it be scale freeberg is this easily scalable
yes um but by the way i'll just point out the
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challenge with this is a lot of people uh north
of 15 will have uh because antibodies remember
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they're a protein and if your cells didn't make
that protein they look like a foreign protein when
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they show up in your body and so very often when
you get a foreign antibody treatment like this you
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will have some sort of allergic reaction because
your body will react and attack that protein and
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so it's not as simple as just saying hey we should
just scale this up and give it to everyone because
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the clinical trials that are going on with it are
to figure out what percentage of people what's the
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right way to treat people what's the right way to
protect them from anaphylactic shock all that sort
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of stuff that comes along with this sort of thing
so it's not that simple we're making it out but
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you you would admit that many of those questions
the answer the answers to many of those questions
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must have been well in hand because there's just
zero way oh regeneron's been running these trials
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since march 100 yeah 100 that's right they what
they i i can tell you for sure when trump got this
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treatment i guarantee they gave him benadryl and
they gave him um a steroid shot and they probably
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gave him a little bit of cortisone or they had
it on the side because that's kind of like the
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standard sort of regimen you would use when you
get this sort of um you know synthesized or or
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convalescent plasma type treatment and uh you
know he comes out of this thing on the other
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end and he's fine um but uh but but that treatment
regimen is required so you know you sit down in an
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id booth and you get a [ __ ] id and you get shots
to go along with it so it's not as simple as just
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shipping it out to everyone's home and giving them
that treatment you know and only am i correct that
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only 300 or so people have gotten this to date
is that correct with the trial i don't know the
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answer to that i know that convalescent plasma
which is call it the poor man's version of this
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treatment which is instead of synthesizing the
antibodies you're taking the actual antibodies
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from other people that have had coveted and
recovered you're isolating those antibodies
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and you're injecting them in other people's
bodies so that is what convalescent plasma is
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it is effectively a soup of all the antibodies
from recovered patients polyclonal antibodies
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is the synthesized version of those isolated
antibodies where we use fermentation systems
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and bioengineered cells to make those antibodies
then we isolate them and we and we use it is there
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any chance that the president would make a bad
decision here because he would get to dictate
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his treatment as a powerful person like steve jobs
did tragically i saw a doctor saying this is one
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of the problems with powerful people is that they
actually can you know make a bad decision because
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doctors will let them have too much of a saying
is that possible in this situation you think
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i think the answer is no because they didn't put
out a letter saying he got bleach and uv light in
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his face so i think he's fine so he didn't go with
his own treatment protocol and and also you're
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going to have chemo no i was just gonna say and
also you know it it eliminated all of the other
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less nonsensical but equally sort of question mark
treatments and so you know i think they went right
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to the answer which would only have been really
possible if the best docs basically said this is
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what we're doing and i think david mentioned this
earlier that it had been decided well in advance
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i think that's a good insight yeah there's
a there's a protocol that was written down
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months ago vetted and re-vetted probably
every week or every month as they get
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as they got more data and so the minute it
happened there was nothing to talk about and
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and i suspect that that is probably what
happened because there is no way you'd want to be
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you know it's kind of like being a pilot like
you follow a systematic set of rules to deal with
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the overwhelming majority of boundary conditions
and this seemed like a pretty obvious boundary
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condition you would have wanted to
have a protocol for well in advance so
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okay so i want to just do one handicapping here
sax i'll have you take this one off the bat
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because this was the chatter on twitter number one
uh the first two i think are just crazy conspiracy
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there is he got it on purpose or he's lying put
those aside for a second you can answer them if
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you want to but the third one is hey what happens
if he's incapacitated and cannot run or god forbid
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he died uh and so if he's on a ventilator
if he cannot leave the hospital he's an icd
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it's not even a question the 25th amendment
deals with that yeah yeah so it goes to pence
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and if pence cannot do it for whatever reason
but he's i think he's okay i was actually going
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to refer to the election though what happens
to the election if in the next three four
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weeks he's in icu what happens then oh that
i don't know well that's what i was trying
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to make a change to his ballot if they wanted
to but i think if he's in the icu he stays on
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the ballot so we would literally have an election
with him on a ventilator or him i mean if he was
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unconscious could he could people still go vote
for him i think this is a possibility i think
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these are very low probability outcomes i think
the most i think the most likely outcome here
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is that because he's got the best care um he's
you know it's it's probably like at least 50
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that this is over for him in about a week um and
it redounds to his political advantage i think
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there's probably a 40 chance that you know he's
got more like a three or four week case which i
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think would hurt him because he's gonna be able to
campaign and then there's maybe like a five or ten
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percent chance of something more serious i wonder
if he's got if he even if he recovers in a week
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the odds are pretty high that he'll have you
know a long tail of fatigue right and so if he
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he doesn't change his if he changes his strategy
and and just does things remotely and whatnot
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doesn't do rallies anymore um you know and
and he he doesn't really come out and say
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he's fatigued but but there's this behavioral
change does that change things do you think
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i think he needs to be able to campaign and hold
these rallies i think that's an essential part
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of his uh election strategy but also it's always
been his way of you know going over the heads of
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the media that hates him and talking directly to
people and rallying his base and field testing his
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ideas there was that period when during lockdowns
when he just stopped doing rallies for several
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months and it really felt like he was adrift um
so yeah i think if he can't do rallies i think
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you know that could easily swing the election
a couple of points and cause him to lose
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i think saxipoo's 100 right i was in indiana last
week and uh there were a bunch of folks in the
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neighborhood where i was staying and i i was
walking my dog and they were walking their
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dogs we were all kind of walking side by side and
they all were ramping up to go to a trump rally
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they were super excited about this this moment to
go hear what he has to say they were they sounded
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like they were kind of in this undecided camp
but they wanted to go to the rally to hear what
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he had to say and kind of experience that trump
moment um it was a real kind of ground level um
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i think um proof point for your uh for your
statement around like you know people really
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need to feel and because that's a big part of
his uh his kind of mo is that groundless it is
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and i think it was it was one of the reasons why
his um no one saw his election coming in 2016
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is if you turned on the tv and just listened
to the commentators i mean aside from maybe fox
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it seemed like everyone just hated him but if
you attended the rallies you would see that he
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was reaching a lot of people tens of thousands
of people at each event and he was flying around
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doing three events a day uh tremendously energetic
just um so yeah i think it's it would hurt him a
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lot um but look if he's back on the stump a week
from now you're probably gonna see all sorts of
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people on the right saying you know i told you
so and god healed him and you know he must be the
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chosen one or you know who we we we could be uh we
could be seeing a weekend at bernie's moment here
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even if he's just tired they'll prop him up on a
big stick and hold him up in front of the crowds
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and then put him back in the airplane and fly him
back home i think i'll know if he's if he's too
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tired because you know he gets up there and he
talks for like an hour and a half i mean right
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he's done two or three yeah it's like
an hour and a half is short for him
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yeah so is it possible we could be talking about
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trump having less energy than biden in a debate
which i think is a good segue here are there gonna
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be two more presidential debates and what was our
take on the absolutely embarrassing [ __ ] show
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that we saw on tuesday night which was supposed
to be the topic today that we're going to lead
00:20:54
off which was the debate which seems unimportant
now it feels like a year ago how do you expect us
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to comment on something that happened so long
ago it was 72 hours ago i mean come on people
00:21:06
oh my god it feels like it's like years 2020
is so exhausting i think i've aged 30 years
00:21:12
in one year it's like three decades that debate
that debate was just a dumpster fire um you know
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the way that i thought about it was wrong
yeah not true i mean imagine no no i agree
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it was a disaster for trump it was a disaster
for trump go ahead sacks explain because he's
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your boy um are you now not going to vote for him
after that just to clarify for the audience uh i'm
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not i'm not pro-trump i'm just just voting for him
i'm anti-hysteria i always support the side that
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seems least hysterical to me at any given time
did you vote for trump last election yes or no
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or would you be comfortable even saying that
i think you'd be surprised if i told you who i
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voted for really but okay so on to the debate um i
think both biden and trap biden and trump both had
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a trap to avoid i think biden's trap was appearing
senile i think trump's trap was appearing unhinged
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i would say that biden avoided his trap and
trump did not um by constantly attacking biden
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interrupting him uh it was counterproductive
i mean what you want to do with biden is let
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the man talk he's a gaff machine you know let
him talk let him say things that will get him
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in trouble instead by constantly interrupting him
trump kind of let him off the hook and um so it's
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now look i mean both of their bases uh you know
it's like it's like a sporting event there's gonna
00:22:32
root for the side they they already came to you
know to support uh but i don't think trump helped
00:22:37
himself with a few percent of independents who
are still out there you know looking to make a
00:22:41
decision i think you're totally right it was um
it was really surprising because if he had just
00:22:47
left him to his own devices you would have let it
play out but i thought biden to be honest there
00:22:51
were some moments he was fabulous so i thought he
was excellent on race i thought he was incredible
00:22:58
in the moment that he basically stood up to
trump about his son hunter and he looks in
00:23:03
the camera and he basically says look i love my
son my son's had troubles and i support i mean
00:23:09
amazing and so like in those moments it's
so hard to not see that guy as presidential
00:23:16
and i don't mean like it's easy for democrats
or people that are voting for him like me but
00:23:21
i think if you're a republican you got to look
at that guy and say man that is a decent dude
00:23:28
he did in certain key moments he did fabulously
well and in other moments where there were traps
00:23:34
he actually got billed up because trump kept
interrupting and joe was smart enough to stop
00:23:38
talking so that it amplified the sense that
trump was interrupting him trump to me seemed
00:23:43
pathetic and scared that was my like he's scared
of losing he felt like a bully who had been like
00:23:49
laughed at by the whole class like nobody
takes him seriously like the moderator
00:23:54
what's his name um chris wallace chris
wallace the moderator was kind of like
00:23:57
what what are you doing sir please i think
chris wallace i mean i know people were
00:24:02
critical of him but chris wallace is like sir
please just trying to appeal to like basic
00:24:07
decency and trump just not getting it me trump
looks so bad it's just i think confirmed with
00:24:14
people say the demographic he has to win is
white women in a lot of these swing states
00:24:18
i mean i don't think women want to vote
i'm not going to speak for women here but
00:24:22
my understanding is women don't like guys
like that who interrupt constantly and who are
00:24:26
belligerent and badgering and they kind of like
a great dad who defended to your point chamoth
00:24:32
you know his son and said hey listen
my son's got problems my other son died
00:24:36
i really think i really think and i and i and
we talked about this a little bit before but
00:24:41
the surface area in terms of policy between
the republicans and the democrats now
00:24:47
are virtually non-existent so look if you
unpack foreign policy they both hate russia
00:24:55
they both hate china they both need india and the
middle east is irrelevant because we're moving
00:25:00
to a carbon neutral alternative energy world
they also don't need russia as an example so
00:25:07
all of this stuff that used to matter before
in so much of the foreign policy that dictated
00:25:11
how americans would fight wars spend money you
know incite democracy protect certain leaders
00:25:17
it's all out the window and they both think
about it the same way because the surface area
00:25:22
is so uh similar that's not what about what
about the economy so number two economically
00:25:30
they're so similar because they both want to spend
trillions of dollars just under a different label
00:25:35
you know one is sort of under a green new deal
and the other is called an infrastructure bill
00:25:38
or whatever it is and then number three they will
both have the same federal reserve that is tied to
00:25:44
the hip of treasury who has already committed
to be trillions of dollars a year in hawk
00:25:49
backing up all the debt that basically exists and
so if you put all these things together it's a
00:25:55
popularity contest and this is why i think joe
biden has an advantage because in a popularity
00:25:59
contest where you're just picking the figure that
you would you know either have a beer with or feel
00:26:04
the most comfortable with there's an element of
this which is like it's just a decent human being
00:26:08
it's easier for biden to get that across than
it is for trump and when trump behaves that way
00:26:14
it just violates some simple rules of decency
like they were in the debate against hillary
00:26:19
clinton he didn't act this way and he was more
um uh he it's it was like watching like a show
00:26:27
like you were kind of like tuning in to see um
what the theatrics would be or in the debates
00:26:33
in the primaries in 2016 against the republicans
it was theatrical here it was just it was it was
00:26:40
just kind of not it was it was pretty sex in that
way sax you think the democrats put up the right
00:26:45
candidate because if you did put up elizabeth
warren if you did put up a bernie sanders or god
00:26:49
forbid both of them at the same time it would be
a very stark contrast you would have the socialist
00:26:54
ticket that wants to you know ban the billionaires
and stop capitalism and kneecap it and uh spend a
00:27:01
bunch of money uh on redistribution of wealth and
here biden doesn't he's never said redistribution
00:27:07
of wealth he's never said ban the billionaires
he's pro-capitalism feels like a safer bet to the
00:27:12
majority of americans did they did the democrats
actually do a good job putting biden up there
00:27:16
i think so um i think he is the most now that we
know he's not senile i mean i think there was some
00:27:22
real question about that going into the debate
i think he proved in that debate that he's not
00:27:26
um and you know he's always kind of had the
decency card that jamal talks about um now that we
00:27:31
know he's not senile i think he he's he is the the
democrats most electable candidate because he is
00:27:38
more centrist than certainly an elizabeth warren
or some of the other candidates that you mentioned
00:27:44
elizabeth warren would have moved the the election
to be about substance and if this in many ways
00:27:51
strategically no but think about this if you
basically converge on roughly the same strategy
00:27:56
with different labels you make the election
one of style and there are a lot of people who
00:28:03
really want decency back in the presidency more so
than they want anything else because they already
00:28:09
come into the election with a level of skepticism
that policy a won't change that fast and b to the
00:28:15
extent it changes doesn't affect them and so you
know for years we've been electing people we like
00:28:20
and this is probably the most extreme test of that
idea i think i think there was like i mean like if
00:28:26
you think about that debate you could probably
simplify it down into the audience being part of
00:28:30
three camps they either know who they're voting
for trump they know who they're voting for biden
00:28:35
and then some folks who are
kind of maybe they're changeable
00:28:38
and for the folks that are changeable there's a
diversity of objectives right there are some folks
00:28:44
who care about the decency some folks who care
about policy but at the end of the day i think
00:28:48
um you you go into this debate with an
expectation of trump and an expectation of biden
00:28:54
and i would say that trump was flat to down
relative to expectation and biden was flat to up
00:29:01
and so um that's where i would kind of give
the the the ticker to and sorry i don't want
00:29:07
to interrupt but i just want to read you this
headline president trump will be admitted to
00:29:10
walter reed medical center on friday uh for a few
days yeah i read that and that hold on a second
00:29:19
well his doctor said it's because they're out of
an abundance of caution they just want to have him
00:29:24
in a place where he can be treated if and
as he needs it that maybe you buy that
00:29:27
a cover story i think that look if you don't buy
that i think he's in trouble uh jason that's that
00:29:32
it is it is very strange when you get a treatment
when when you get a treatment like he got today
00:29:38
you know eight grams of uh immunoglobulin therapy
like that it sucks uh i've had this treatment
00:29:45
i've had uh immunoglobulin therapy before and you
get knocked out you you're on all these steroids
00:29:50
you're on all this anti-allergy stuff you are a
mess for a day or two and you know you want to
00:29:57
get like ivs and stuff that they give you all
sorts of stuff to go with it i got to imagine
00:30:01
that after getting that therapy he's going to need
to be in some degree of care and i would imagine
00:30:06
it's probably better to just do that around
doctors and with all the equipment than trying
00:30:09
to you know kind of bring everything into the
white house so i don't read it as negatively but
00:30:14
um well i mean do you do you think it could
be like an anaphylactic you know you might be
00:30:20
having some reaction yeah totally like i said
a large percentage of people that get these
00:30:26
antibody therapies have um some sort of allergic
response it's all the way from anaphylactic to
00:30:31
hey i'm having my throat's closing hey i feel i'm
getting flushed i'm getting a fever there's all
00:30:36
sorts of ways that this can kind of present so the
the world is changing so fast that we can't even
00:30:40
complete a podcast without it being obsolete can
i tell you one other thing um what did you guys
00:30:45
think about the fact this is a little morbid so
you can we can choose not to talk about it but
00:30:50
the stock market basically did nothing
today on the news that the most important
00:30:55
person in the free world theoretically um
i think you just answered your own question
00:31:02
i could chime in on this one i don't think that
people perceive that trump is good or bad uh for
00:31:07
the economy either way and that the economy is
separated now from politics because they think
00:31:11
biden or trump are going to have the same policies
which you said before they have the same policies
00:31:15
so why does it matter if trump were to tragically
die it would not make a difference in the american
00:31:21
economy it's not going to affect people buying
iphones it might shake people psychologically
00:31:24
but i don't think in a massive way because he's
almost out of office so i think it's all baked in
00:31:29
that's why the market did join what do you think
i want to disagree slightly with the idea this
00:31:33
election doesn't matter um i think it will matter
a lot if uh the democrats win the senate as well
00:31:40
as the presidency because then they will have one
party control and they can pass much legislation
00:31:44
as they want and i think a lot of things will get
signed and i think the biden presidency could be
00:31:50
very consequential at least for two years um while
all this legislation has passed even if you know
00:31:56
he's not you know out in front saying very much um
i mean the significance will be in the in the pen
00:32:02
to sign the legislation if the republicans hold
on to the senate but biden wins the presidency
00:32:08
i agree with you that it's not going to be a
tremendously consequential election because we'll
00:32:13
have gridlock and divided government again and so
i think a lot hinges on whether biden wins with or
00:32:20
without the senate i i don't disagree with you the
only thing that i will say is that i think that
00:32:26
biden will drag the country especially if
it's a you know up and down democratic ticket
00:32:33
back to the 80s and 90s more to the sort of the
george baker school of diplomacy and governance
00:32:40
and i think that if i and i don't know him
to know this but i think that if he really
00:32:45
were to have a legacy i'm susp i i would suspect
that part of again because he's mentioned that
00:32:52
you know why did he run he said the pivotal
moment was like charlottesville and trump's
00:32:56
reaction to charlottesville i think biden
is really moored by this concept of decency
00:33:01
and i think that if if he were there
and he thought to himself i'm going to
00:33:04
be here for four years because that's the
right responsible thing to do but no more
00:33:09
um i don't think that you're gonna see a bunch
of crazy legislation pass i think biden's gonna
00:33:13
say guys this is what i expect to do by the way
did you because and i and i think i would bet on
00:33:18
that because of what he said at the beginning of
the debate he's like uh i am the democratic party
00:33:24
i don't know if you guys remember that yeah i do
remember that that was incredible that was so that
00:33:28
was a that was a very darth sidious emperor move
when he said no no no he was i think he was trying
00:33:35
to basically say like firewall the extra the far
left or the far left the socialist left and say
00:33:41
that rhetoric is not what i was elected on i was
elected on my platform i am the party this is what
00:33:48
i believe and everybody else will have to toe the
line and by the way in the end that's not such a
00:33:54
bad thing yeah it's amazing i i i agree i think
that that was a really important moment for him
00:34:00
is for him to say look i'm in charge here because
the republicans have been making the argument that
00:34:04
he's a trojan horse for all these like far left
elements aoc aoc and so it was very it was very
00:34:10
important to come forward and say no i'm i'm the
one leading this ticket now that being said and i
00:34:16
think it would be a great thing for the country if
biden brought the democratic party back to more of
00:34:21
a you know bill clinton to you know obama type
centrism or you know center leftism i guess you
00:34:28
could say as opposed to this sort of like crazy
you know woke marxism or maoism whatever you want
00:34:35
to call it um yeah but i'm i'm very skeptical
that he will because i think biden has always
00:34:40
positioned himself throughout his career as being
at the center of the democratic party and i think
00:34:46
he moves as the democratic party moves i agree
he's not going to be all the way to the left of
00:34:50
the democratic party but those left elements will
drag his sort of center to further to the left
00:34:57
and we'll end up with sort of a compromise and i
think at the end of the day if the democrats win
00:35:02
congress he'll sign whatever they they pass
i'm not so sure i really i really i'm not so
00:35:09
sure the the white house is uh not that far
away it looks like it's a 30 minute drive
00:35:18
from walter reed sending a helicopter is
that normal because he drove there last time
00:35:26
would that be indicative of this as an emergency
type situation sending marine one as opposed to
00:35:31
just driving there for 20 minutes there'd be a lot
of liability if he had an actual medical emergency
00:35:37
and they were just like yeah we're gonna send
him for a few days out of an abundance of caution
00:35:40
the fact that they said out of an abundance of
caution i think you if there is an emergency
00:35:45
you you can't get away with saying that
oh you can for sure they would lie i don't
00:35:50
know it'll come out you're saying the trump
administration is above lying about situations
00:35:56
if he's unconscious they gotta swear pension yeah
there's a lot of reasons why you gotta be careful
00:36:00
i'm not saying he's unconscious i'm just saying
it it's not even unconscious marine one like
00:36:05
i'm just thinking out loud here is sending a
helicopter for a 20 minute ride then a motorcade
00:36:10
like seems a little i mean i would take a
i would take a helicopter to the 7-11 if i
00:36:14
had a helicopter fair enough you're taking
a helicopter that is something i would say
00:36:23
okay uh let's this is i think a good jumping off
point to an interesting discussion that blew up
00:36:30
on twitter earlier this week which is we can't
keep up with all the politics the the rhetoric
00:36:36
the vitriol and this polarization so uh coinbase
co-founder and ceo brian armstrong wrote a letter
00:36:43
saying hey listen if you uh want to talk about
politics that's fine not at my company anymore
00:36:50
we're going to have a no politics rule no
debating the stuff and we're going to be
00:36:54
ultra ultra focused focused i'm sorry at work and
you can check your politics at the door when you
00:37:01
read this sax you've come out in support of brian
armstrong uh what was your take on his position
00:37:08
about leave your politics at the door when
you get to work right well i think i think
00:37:13
what brian so i did i did compliment it um his
his manifesto and i i think are you an investor
00:37:20
i am i'm a small investor in coinbase um and
uh and and i'm friendly with with brian and so
00:37:27
i i certainly you know liked the idea of
defending him against unfair attacks but
00:37:33
um i also genuinely liked the manifesto and i
think you know his argument kind of boils down
00:37:38
to three components i think number one that having
these debates on every issue whatever the issue
00:37:45
du jour is pulls the company's focus away from
its core mission which he really emphasized and um
00:37:52
you know that mission mission is
challenging enough in its own right
00:37:55
um second he was saying that in something
i've said before as well which is just
00:38:00
that politics is just increasingly divisive in
our society it's just inherently divisive and
00:38:05
therefore it's uh corrosive to team cohesion
and the more you have of that in your company
00:38:10
the worse it is for you know the team and i think
the third thing he he mentioned which i thought
00:38:16
was really interesting is that the freewheeling
debate of or discussion of politics you know like
00:38:23
like that we're having here but we kind of have
our own little safe zone here it risks uh hurt
00:38:27
feelings or misunderstandings that can become
hr issues because people can then complain
00:38:34
about they feel unsafe they feel unsafe and they
report to and so that's a further destruction
00:38:39
moments in this podcast i'll be honest there's a
couple of moments well i think well i think one of
00:38:43
the reasons why this pod sort of works is because
we're all we're all friends and uh we've created
00:38:48
a safe space for us to have these conversations
but the workplace is very different it's not you
00:38:52
know and and what i read brian trying to do is
to reimpose a true safe space by saying leave
00:38:59
your politics at the door now i think he's been
deliberately misconstrued by by critics who want
00:39:06
to say that well you have to leave your conscience
at the door you know that's not true he's not
00:39:11
saying that you can't have your own political
views or contribute to causes that you like but
00:39:17
you just you got to do it on your own time kind
of like mr han said in fast times at richmond
00:39:22
high you know like do that on your own time
um and and that makes sense to me i think like
00:39:30
i mean look i think about this from the point of
view of one of the employees working at one of
00:39:34
these companies that doesn't want to be a party
to the debate um if i'm an engineer at google
00:39:40
or coinbase i go into work and i am captive right
i don't have the option of not showing up to work
00:39:47
if i go to a rally i have the option of saying i'm
going to go to this rally and walk away because
00:39:52
i don't like the speaker or i'm going to go to
the rally because i want to participate in this
00:39:56
dialogue or this debate i can't do that at work so
it's unfair for work which is a place that i as an
00:40:02
employee have to go to every day to be a forum for
people to express themselves on political points
00:40:08
that i may or may not agree with but more
importantly may or may not want to actually
00:40:13
be a party to the discussion around um and i think
that's the most important thing to note here is
00:40:18
like it's not about enabling the free speech of
the employees that want to debate it's about the
00:40:23
protecting the workspace for the employees that
don't want to debate and don't want to be exposed
00:40:27
to that um and that's really important as chamath
is a person of color who um you know have i'm sure
00:40:35
some has some strong feelings about what we've
seen in terms of police shootings or maybe in
00:40:40
your own personal life experience facing racism uh
again as a person of color what are your thoughts
00:40:46
on the workplace is it is it possible for you to
leave that at the door that was the criticism i
00:40:53
think i saw from the you know people who were
supportive of blm and they said the background
00:40:58
here was they were trying to get brian to
explicitly say black lives matter and to
00:41:05
you know have the company rally behind that um and
that he didn't he didn't want to have that be part
00:41:12
of the work environment and that he was offering
people four to six months severance if they would
00:41:16
leave if they don't like the new rules so what
are your thoughts i think that this whole thing
00:41:20
became a quagmire unnecessarily i think that he
showed um a lot of naivety um and frankly like um
00:41:33
you know a little bit of stupidity really um
it was really poorly written um and that's why
00:41:39
it's been so misunderstood and misconstrued in my
opinion i think a lot of what he had to say was
00:41:45
valid but when it was so poorly presented and you
know the the essay was like eight minutes and it
00:41:51
was rambling and the mission was like you know 97
down on the you know and it's just like it was a
00:41:56
convoluted [ __ ] mess so if i had to do it again
if i were him or if i was his advisor and he had
00:42:02
asked me you know to proofread the essay what i
would have said is more of the following which is
00:42:08
our mission which is you know i think to create
financial liberty or something something like that
00:42:13
you guys can find out what it is for the whole
world is unbelievably important we will talk about
00:42:21
every issue through the lens of achieving our
mission and we will be disciplined about saying
00:42:26
which things matter and which things don't so for
example if somebody says listen i really believe
00:42:31
in spaying and neutering dogs the right answer
shouldn't be hey shut the [ __ ] up it says okay
00:42:38
um how does that allow us to maximize our users
how does that allow us to achieve our mission
00:42:45
why does it allow us to achieve our mission and
if you ask the question why four or five times
00:42:52
in the very first principles way you'll get to the
answer so i would have rather said we are going to
00:42:56
train people how to understand what builds up to
our mission and what is otherwise something that
00:43:03
you should leave at home and in that context there
are a lot of things actually that are political
00:43:10
that need to be brought especially into a company
like coinbase which is working in crypto which is
00:43:16
all about eliminating the financial barriers of
people that don't have access to it like you are
00:43:21
trying to dismantle an extremely exclusionary
part of the economy and so there are potentially
00:43:29
many movements that matter and those movements in
countries in which you will want to gain users may
00:43:36
look like political movements well and that was
jack dorsey's point he uh so i just think yeah
00:43:41
so i just think it was a it was a it was kind
of a too super it was very silicon valley-esque
00:43:47
reaction it was emotional um it was a little
insecure and it to me it missed the mark because
00:43:54
there was a lot of validity in what he was saying
but presented in an kind of in a lens of you know
00:44:01
silicon valley [ __ ] and it was not well thought
through so if he had rewritten it and he had said
00:44:08
99 of what he said but through the lens of why
we're going to think about a first principles way
00:44:16
of defining how everything ladders into the
mission he will train his employees instead
00:44:21
what he created was a schism and a decision
point and i'm not sure that that's how you
00:44:26
maximize value in 2020 as a ceo because at the
end of the day you have to deal with an entire
00:44:31
population cohort that is that are in their 20s
early 30s teenagers that will eventually want
00:44:37
to work for you and whether we like it or not
they're different and one of the things you need
00:44:41
to do if you're going to run an enormous company
is understand the psychology of your employees
00:44:46
understand the psychology of how movements and
decisions are organized and then play to win
00:44:53
and it's no different than anybody else
if you want to be in the job you know to
00:44:57
be the starting point guard for the warriors
you got to know how to [ __ ] pass the ball
00:45:01
and if you're going to be the power forward you
have to know how to do a certain set of things
00:45:05
that are different than that and so i would sort
of have framed it there because i think there was
00:45:10
a lot of goodness in what he said but presented
in a pretty shitty manner i think it's good he
00:45:14
brought up the topic i do think there's a tactical
issue here and he he could have laid out the
00:45:19
ground rules for i think to your point jamal of
how we should talk about uh politics at work and
00:45:26
what are the ground rules i think the number one
issue here which people don't talk about is that
00:45:31
slack and email and forums inside of companies
have created a massive distraction and when
00:45:39
somebody goes into the random channel which is
built into slack and i know this is in the weeds
00:45:43
but i have seen this happen at multiple companies
now slack infects a company somebody creates a
00:45:49
room about a topic whether it's trump or police
violence or immigration whatever it is and then
00:45:56
people want to sound off on that and now you've
got an electronic form where people are talking
00:46:02
about highly charged issues that makes people feel
unsafe and so what i told my companies was um the
00:46:07
two companies i run you could talk about politics
if you want to go for a walk with somebody and
00:46:11
have coffee or lunch and you want to have a
two-hour discussion about it go for it please
00:46:16
do not put this in electronic form because it's
a massive distraction uh and there'll be a record
00:46:21
that could create downstream human resources
issues to your report sex i have a suggestion and
00:46:26
this is an organizational design experiment and
maybe somebody listening will implement at their
00:46:31
company allow 100 free form debate about anything
one condition you literally need to have a soapbox
00:46:39
and like in the 1880s hyde park in london yep you
put the soapbox someplace in a safe space where
00:46:46
you can go and you can talk and people who want
to listen will listen and people who need to work
00:46:50
can work and people who don't want to listen
don't have to be forced to listen what's the
00:47:00
a literal place in your office you put the
soap you have a soapbox you grab it you put
00:47:04
it on the ground you stand on it and you
say it and if you're not willing to do that
00:47:09
then right you know are you saying that there's no
digital version of that because people could what
00:47:15
i'm saying is that two things one is the digital
version is actually training people to ask why
00:47:22
why does it matter now the reason why it's
important to ask that is because somebody may say
00:47:27
i'll use jason's example that he loves we need
to support the uyghurs in china the best way
00:47:33
to do that is to proliferate our software
in the following way because it will free
00:47:38
them from ensavement of the chinese and it'll
give them access to financial independence wow
00:47:44
i mean okay that seems to be paying off the
mission so if you would if so you gotta give
00:47:50
freedom for people to come up with these ideas
because it may the first version of this idea may
00:47:56
may not actually be what the final version is in
the final version maybe the killer feature so i
00:48:01
in the digital forum in the slacks it should be
why respect and that's a very respectful question
00:48:08
it shouldn't it should not be in
any digital forum because it leads
00:48:11
to chaos because we see that on twitter and
what's happening is the twitter derangement
00:48:14
that we all suffer from is now infected inside
the community the communication system that
00:48:19
runs the operating system of the company
go ahead exactly yeah that that's the thing
00:48:24
yes i do i do agree with jake on this one so
so look i mean chamath is right that i'm sure
00:48:28
i'm sure trumath would have written a better
letter but i think we understand the gist of
00:48:32
what brian was trying to say and actually
i thought it took a lot of courage to to
00:48:36
write it and what he's basically saying
is that politics has become so divisive
00:48:41
in our society that that i mean it'd be nice if we
could have these reasonable debates the way that
00:48:46
we're having this discussion inside companies we
didn't have to have these artificial restrictions
00:48:51
but we do we have to you know it's the same reason
you know that we have the separation of church and
00:48:56
state is because people couldn't stop killing each
other over religious wars and so finally we had
00:49:00
you know the treaty of westphalia to stop it and
what brian's basically proposing is a is a treaty
00:49:06
for the workplace because we cannot get along
around politics but david he is the ceo of an
00:49:12
8 billion dollar company could he not have hired
somebody to edit that essay okay well i mean look
00:49:17
i i just to me it's like if it's meaning if it's
seriously well thought through and it and if it
00:49:22
was as important as westphalia you would probably
have a couple proofreaders corporate corporate
00:49:28
version okay it's not it's not historical it could
have been polish for sure here is jack dorsey's
00:49:32
response and i'll have you guys respond to it i
think it's in your wheelhouse in terms of what you
00:49:36
said chamoth bitcoin aka crypto is direct activism
against an unverifiable and exclusionary financial
00:49:43
system which definitely affects so much of our
society important to at least acknowledge and
00:49:49
connect the related societal issues your customers
face daily this leaves people behind i think he's
00:49:55
right you have to view this problem not through
the lens of your own emotions not even through
00:50:00
the lens of the frustrations of your employees
you have to help shift the discussion to say
00:50:05
why does this achieve our mission and just
constantly in a thoughtful respectful way
00:50:11
ask why and by the fourth or fifth why it will
either be something that doesn't matter and you
00:50:17
can dismiss it quickly or something that actually
is rooted in fact and probably is something you
00:50:23
need to pay attention to and maybe the way that
the conversation started was probably not with the
00:50:28
right language that people given the chance would
have framed it differently okay the worst take
00:50:33
uh according to the internet's uh twitter's
ability to ratio people which is when you get
00:50:38
more comments than likes um which is not normally
how it works people are actually taking the time
00:50:43
to explain to you how bad your take was as
opposed to liking it is what a ratio is if
00:50:48
you don't know um goes to dick casolo uh who's
a friend of ours me first capitalists who think
00:50:56
you can separate society from business are
going to be the first people lined up against
00:51:00
the wall and shot in the revolution i'll be
ha i mean and that's that's enough to get you
00:51:08
ratioed and have this thing go supernova i mean
mike cernovich is retweeting this and losing
00:51:13
like his mind over it you know that the former ceo
of twitter is inciting violence he's a comedian as
00:51:19
well um to costello so i think he's joking here
and but he adds the punk the exclamation point
00:51:25
i'll happily provide video commentary yeah here
here's here's here's my uh disagreement with with
00:51:32
dick and with jack is ultimately the societal
value of a company doesn't come from whatever
00:51:40
platitudes or political statements its co makes
but rather from the quality of its products and
00:51:46
the impact of its products and in that sense
dick and jack are living in a glass house i mean
00:51:51
twitter is a sewer of political diatribe and
polemical hate you know it's i don't know anyone
00:51:59
who feels better uh you know after spending time
on twitter you know if facebook is like cigarettes
00:52:06
you know i i don't know what twitter is i
mean it's like fentanyl or something yeah
00:52:10
so so ultimately you know maybe jack should spend
his time figuring out how to make twitter into a
00:52:17
less socially divisive product instead of you
know because just issuing woke plates is not
00:52:23
going to do it i agree with the i agree with that
i don't think platitudes does it all i'm saying is
00:52:28
you have to view it through the lens of i want
to become the most relevant company possible and
00:52:34
achieve the most impact and i think that there
are a lot of times where some of these issues
00:52:40
when presented politically underlying it is
actually some feature or some capability or
00:52:46
some way of seeing the problem that unlocks more
demand that can help you win and not knowing a
00:52:52
priori what the answers to those questions are
it's important to train people on a framework
00:52:57
versus say you can't talk because i guarantee
you what will happen is somebody with some killer
00:53:02
feature will be too scared to say something
because they're not sure how to say it well
00:53:06
and you and i both know because we've seen many
companies that have gone through that cycle
00:53:10
those companies decay and die yeah i think it'd
be great if a policy like this wasn't necessary
00:53:17
i mean it's i i agree it's suboptimal but i
think it's it's caused by the fact that people
00:53:22
just can't get along around politics anymore
friedberg what is your take on ultimately how
00:53:28
coinbase winds up the year or two after this do
they get more resumes of hyper-talented people
00:53:36
who want to embrace a politics social issue
free workplace or do millennials and you know
00:53:44
gen c and this next group of talented folks say
i don't want to work for somebody who doesn't
00:53:51
want to talk about these issues at work and then
at the production board where you have a factory
00:53:55
where you build uh companies do you have some rule
around this yourself or thoughts about how you run
00:54:01
your companies i think the more clearly you define
culture the more successful your company will be
00:54:09
and right or wrong about whether or not you
enable the debate in the discussion and how you
00:54:14
define the forums for kind of political discussion
within your company the fact that there is a clear
00:54:21
definition and delineation around this point i
think removes the uncertainty and i think he'll do
00:54:26
exactly what he's hoping to do which is to get
people to leave and to attract other people that
00:54:31
better fit with that cultural model i want to put
my game face on i want to go to work and i want
00:54:36
to win the game i'm here to play i'm not here
to [ __ ] around i'm not here to do other stuff
00:54:41
i want this job because i believe in this
mission and i want this company to succeed
00:54:45
in what it's trying to do and i think other
places that allow people to run around and
00:54:50
you know do things that they may or may not
appreciate other people doing or and you have
00:54:56
this kind of low definition kind of culture where
some people are happy some people are unhappy
00:55:02
it all kind of you know slows things down and
and i wouldn't kind of encourage anyone to um
00:55:09
to let that happen i think it's really important
to just define how it is you want to operate
00:55:13
be really clear about the rules
and the boundaries and then um
00:55:17
that i agree with as well i mean i think it's
very much within his right and i think it took
00:55:22
i do applaud his courage in doing it i just think
that it misses the mark because i think it was
00:55:26
too emotional i think he could do a 2.0 version
and just keep building on the manifesto and say
00:55:31
hey based on the feedback i got here's how we're
going to do it no discussion here on the election
00:55:38
reid hastings put out that fantastic uh powerpoint
that i think we all know really well the cultural
00:55:43
playbook from netflix and he when did he put that
out like it's almost a decade ago no two decades
00:55:49
ago was 2000 2001 and he's continued to refine it
right if you look at there's recent iterations of
00:55:54
it and they continue to kind of do a better job
of defining um you know uh how do they intend
00:55:59
to operate uh with people um and i think it's
it's only continue to reinforce the innovation
00:56:05
that drives that company into the hundred billion
dollar plus valuation it's earned yes and if you
00:56:12
if there's one important thing which is that
there's a meaningful difference in the average
00:56:17
age of a netflix employee and the average age of
a silicon valley company now that may be also part
00:56:22
of it as well i i think the one thing that brian
could clarify is that you don't have to check
00:56:28
your conscience at the door you it's not we're
not saying that you can't have political views
00:56:33
you're allowed to say things on twitter or take
political stands or donate to whoever you want
00:56:38
it's just that the company itself is going to be
a demilitarized zone you know we're not going to
00:56:43
bring we're not going to bring these contentious
divisive debates that really aren't related to our
00:56:48
core mission inside the company so we can all work
better so we can all work better as a team towards
00:56:53
the reason that we all joined this company
but that's totally fair but you know while
00:56:57
i'm saying all i'm saying again i'll just say
it again that is such an important thing to say
00:57:02
you could have had it proof for it
a couple times you didn't could have
00:57:05
been could have come across the way you're
saying it it didn't have to be written by gpt3
00:57:09
you know what i mean also i think that it was a
the the dunk he did afterwards where he's like and
00:57:16
by the way if you don't like it here's four
months severance get the [ __ ] out that was
00:57:22
a pretty uh aggressive move as well all right i
don't know how you guys feel i think i kind of
00:57:27
like the gangster nature i like it i think it's
i think it's great it's like if i'm on the team
00:57:32
and i believe in what he just said i feel great
that he's flushing this [ __ ] out and if i don't
00:57:36
agree with it it's like [ __ ] yeah i'll take
it you know like it's really clear and i think
00:57:40
the clear-cut definition of culture is
what every company needs to kind of pursue
00:57:44
and it's an ongoing pursuit and you can always
do a better job with it and culture is what
00:57:48
you choose not to do as much as it is what you do
right i'm not going to talk about politics i think
00:57:52
is totally right it takes a lot of courage
to say here's what i believe and if you don't
00:57:56
if you don't believe in it then it's okay for
you to leave and here's a severance package
00:58:01
that takes a lot of courage so i applaud him for
that yeah i mean look it's a free country and we
00:58:06
all have limited time we should all go work on the
mission that is most important and inspiring to us
00:58:12
and coinbase has a very specific mission that
brian's defining he's trying to find it clearly
00:58:17
and if that mission is important and inspiring
to you then go work there and if it's not then
00:58:21
go work at the place that you know where that
you know where the mission does inspire you
00:58:25
and it may be a startup or maybe you know a
political organization whatever it is go go do
00:58:30
that thing that's most meaningful to you that's
kind of my interpretation of what he was saying
00:58:36
all right as we wrap here it was hard for me
to interpret because it was so poorly written
00:58:41
well also i mean it was also like a huge bomb
on twitter and people's reaction to it was based
00:58:47
upon i think how they feel at this moment in
time and a lot of people feel this is why i'm
00:58:51
sorry but communications is important how you say
things what you say yeah style is really important
00:58:59
yeah whether it's take the time get it
right yeah all right so 2021 is going to
00:59:06
be upon us before we know it and i wanted
to wrap here with each of your feelings on
00:59:12
uh the economy uh technology and politics
economy technology politics how do you feel
00:59:18
uh about 2021 are you optimistic pessimistic
neutral on those economy politics have you
00:59:27
guys ever been to magic mountain or disneyland
you ever get you get in one of those log rides
00:59:34
and it's like raging rapids or roaring
waters or whatever they're called
00:59:38
sure and it's just [ __ ] like you hop in
and this thing just takes off down the river
00:59:42
i mean i don't know nothing summarizes not better
for me but in so many ways is that where i feel
00:59:48
we are right now we've all jumped on a bunch of [
__ ] logs and we're shooting down this rapid river
00:59:53
um and i think a big part of what i'm
feeling and chamath is in the middle of this
00:59:58
but there's this extraordinary velocity of
capital right now and um when i say that i
01:00:04
just mean capital is moving in large amounts very
freely and that creates like once in a generation
01:00:10
kind of opportunity it's in part because the
fed has dropped interest rates to zero so
01:00:15
there's all these trillions of dollars moving
markets there's a change in an outlook and the
01:00:19
world is being shifted in so many ways this is
this really amazing moment that i think we can
01:00:24
all be afraid of because we're on a [ __ ]
roaring rapid on a log trying to stay afloat
01:00:29
but um there is so much happening uh in in
these markets that we kind of operate in
01:00:36
there's never been a better time to get your
business funded or to take your company public
01:00:40
or to get customers to make quick decisions and
change their behavior whether they're a consumer
01:00:45
or an enterprise customer money and decisions
are happening at a money's moving at a faster
01:00:49
pace than we've ever seen and decisions are
happening at a faster pace than we've ever
01:00:53
seen that's my general sentiment i don't think
it stops going into 2021 there's just another
01:00:59
kind of floodgate about to open with
this election one way or the other
01:01:02
um but the these we're in the middle of this
kind of raging rapids right now and it's uh it's
01:01:07
it's a pretty um it's a pretty scary but also
kind of exciting kind of time so it's so well
01:01:12
said quinoa i really agree with you i i think
that it's kind of like if you used to take
01:01:18
um a second to make a one dollar decision and
a minute to take a hundred dollar decision the
01:01:25
amount of money being flooded into the economy now
allows you to uh make a hundred dollar decision in
01:01:30
a second right so like the order of magnitude of
the mental barrier that it takes um has changed
01:01:37
and uh i agree with you i was thinking earlier
this week that um it's a really incredible time
01:01:44
to be alive for one very in one very specific
way which is obviously there's stuff that's
01:01:49
happening that's really turbulent but there
is a chance that a bunch of us can really um
01:01:59
like change things in a meaningful way and um and
i find it exciting so i'm generally like i'm super
01:02:07
bullish uh on the economy i'm super bullish on
tech um and i think i'm actually kind of like
01:02:15
reasonably optimistic about politics i think
that we're gonna find our civility soon
01:02:20
um and uh and i don't know why that's going
to happen or how it's going to get triggered
01:02:27
um but i think honestly like the election of biden
um will go such a long way to just um you know
01:02:37
just showing what is rewarded and then to figure
out how to reward the folks that were supporting
01:02:44
trump in the first place for purposes of economic
um you know pushback could be a nice de-escalation
01:02:52
in fact and maybe an olive branch if biden can
bring that republican party into the conversation
01:02:58
yeah and sac sacks had this really beautiful
thing that he posted on twitter which was like
01:03:03
you know a lot of san francisco's dysfunction is
really going to spread wealth throughout the rest
01:03:09
of the country because a lot of cities that were
shut out of all these tech gains will now see it
01:03:15
and now you can imagine uh all kinds of people
there's a guy that i you know follow on twitter
01:03:20
he he he lives in bowie maryland he's a engineer
at vmware um this black guy and he was just
01:03:27
talking about how he got promoted and he's now a
principal engineer and you know and i just thought
01:03:32
like this is really [ __ ] cool like there's
gonna be all this redistribution of opportunity
01:03:39
all around the country um and that'll happen
because of coronavirus because of people's
01:03:44
frustration with california because you know
of a handful of us how fed up we've gotten with
01:03:49
the culture of silicon valley including by the
way right what brian armstrong wrote which was
01:03:54
which again still very important um and
so we'll all be better off for that so i
01:03:59
don't know i'm pretty optimistic sax tech economy
politics 2021 well i i'm i'm super bullish about
01:04:09
you know how about the entrepreneurial energy in
the american economy um it's it's it's a hundred
01:04:15
times greater than when we started out our careers
in this business you know 20 years ago in terms of
01:04:20
the number of companies that get funded the ideas
the tools that are available the funding i mean
01:04:27
when you think about it this might be the first
time in human history where money is chasing the
01:04:32
like throwing money at the ideas i mean throughout
history until i'd say the last 10 20 years ago
01:04:37
you know the people who had no money but had
great ideas have always had to go hat in hand
01:04:42
to go find the capital and now it's going it's
completely the other way around there's so many
01:04:46
vcs and they're all racing around trying to find
the people with ideas and um it was worse than
01:04:53
that sax they had to go give their ideas to a big
company and take a salary right like so tesla you
01:04:58
know nikola tesla the original inventor didn't
profit at all from his ideas you know um and
01:05:03
so that was pretty common and um and so just
this just how entrepreneurial the u.s economy
01:05:10
has become i'm very the new economy is completely
taken over and i'm bullish on that i think the the
01:05:15
you know the the tweet that smoth was referencing
you know i said that san francisco's loss is going
01:05:20
to be america's gain the rest of america's gain
because middle america was really left out of
01:05:25
the new economy it's just not where it was taking
place and so you know globalization really gutted
01:05:31
industrial america and cultural
america they didn't get to participate
01:05:35
in the enormous wealth creation of the
last two or three decades and i think
01:05:39
you know on i guess you know because of what
san francisco has done in terms of driving out
01:05:44
companies i think the companies are going to
be you know tech companies are going to be all
01:05:48
over the us now yeah totally it's so it's [ __ ]
awesome should be uh super interesting uh and so
01:05:56
uh let's just lay the odds as we wrap here on
biden winning biden 65 35 approaching 70 30. okay
01:06:08
david's you gotta you got a
handicap for me on fighting winning
01:06:15
what do you think sax well i mean the the betting
line is is like somewhere in the 60 to 70 range
01:06:22
and so you'd have to say that the
the betting markets are probably
01:06:25
you know pretty accurate i guess you know
probably there's a 70 chance of him winning
01:06:30
if i had to bet on that line i'd probably
take the 30 underdog because i think you know
01:06:35
there's alway things are so in so much turmoil
right now that anything can still happen so you
01:06:40
think there's a chance that trump could win yeah
and it's probably bigger than 30 percent yeah it's
01:06:44
probably bigger it's slightly bigger than what
the betting markets are giving them credit for
01:06:48
free what are your thoughts probably right
yeah i don't have anything to add to that
01:06:51
all right uh any speculation that we want to end
with chamath uh on the uh i just noticed that a
01:06:58
meal from uh uber is doing a spec mark pincus
is doing his bag everybody's doing specs now
01:07:05
any speculation on uh what we're gonna see in
that market nope god bless them and i love you
01:07:13
all besties all right besties back to the grind
back to the garage and we'll see you next time
01:07:18
you know what to do share this podcast with
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01:07:21
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best you can do is write a review or clip it and
01:07:30
we'll see you all next time
on the all in podcast bye bye
