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hey everybody welcome back besties are back
and it's a bestie spax giving congratulations
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to the queen of quinoa his second company david
freeburg announces today hours before the taping
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of this special thanksgiving pod that he is taking
metro mile public through us back and that best ec
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and here is the quote that as only chamath can
tweet buffett had geico i picked metro miles
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i would just like to say that's how you
move markets uh lebron james has three rings
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uh freeburg tell us what is metro mile uh and um
well this isn't a self-promoting podcast is it i
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mean no no but i think it's just you know it's
your second company i started the company in
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2011 when i was running climate when i was the
ceo there and um you know we were climate was
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offering insurance at the time we learned a lot
about the insurance markets and figured like hey
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you know telematics or connecting cars to the
internet is going to be a big deal and we're
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going to be able to completely change the auto
insurance industry so we set up this company i
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was the chairman from the founding in 2011 and
you know been been chairman and i've been an
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active investor in the business in every round
since then um so the business has built some uh
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you know really compelling uh value proposition
for customers and you know it's got really good
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unit economics and it's um you know needed its
last round of capital to get profitable and turns
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out you know as we were thinking about that this
summer that a stack was a really good path for the
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business given the inflection point it's at um and
the basic premise of the business is instead of
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paying for insurance by month or time period the
innovation here is you pay per mile yeah insurance
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today is like you know you fill out a form and
you get a price for insurance you pay that rate
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for six months of coverage but you know depending
on when you're driving and how much you're driving
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you should be paying a different price right so
we we kind of changed the model to a rate per mile
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and so if you don't drive you save you know
so the average customer doesn't drive a lot
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with metro mile they save 47 over what they were
paying with like geico or progressive reassurance
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uh and you do that with that odb port it's like
a little plug-in device and increasingly we're
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actually doing it directly by connecting to
cars direct through ford and a couple other
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big automotive oems now have this ability
to send the data directly out of the car
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because they're all internet connected now
so um so that allows us to just basically
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you know see how many miles you're driving and the
rate per mile is what we bill you each month times
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the number of miles you drove on your on your
car and you you didn't mention how you drive
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i think that was a controversial concept for
a while you know if you speed if you're right
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is that on the roadmap yeah that is part of it
today but frankly 70 of the price difference you
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get in auto insurance is from the number of miles
you drive and only 30 percent is really in this
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variance around behavior you know most people are
generally pretty good drivers so believe it or not
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so the real variance in terms of you know your
risk to the insurance companies how many miles
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you drive so that really is the predominant factor
so if we can accurately track that now what's
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interesting is like in a world of autonomous
cars where you're like turning on the car
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to be autonomous or fully self-driving
at some point you know it's on and off
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you should be getting a different rate
for those miles right so if the car is
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if your tesla is on autopilot on the freeway
that should be safer than you on the freeway
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you shouldn't be paying as much even better you
can you can kind of think about how this moves
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into a world where everything is dynamically
priced and dynamically built usage priced yeah
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usage price and that and also fair so you know if
you're a good driver and you're driving well or if
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you're using autonomous features you shouldn't
pay as much and ultimately that translates
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uh you know into a truly kind of more dynamic
service and that's really where the world has to
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go because those low mileage drivers or those good
drivers or those drivers using autonomous features
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should be paying considerably less so they'll
start using our service and that'll force the
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other guys to raise their rates and it creates
this huge you know kind of market mode um great
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we're in that we're in the we're in the very
early days i mean it's like the first inning still
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so we're you know we're we're just getting going
chimav you chose to do a pipe um with the spac
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explain to the audience what a pipe is people
don't know and what you loved about metro mile
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sure um i think the uh what what is a pipe a pipe
is a a private investment in a public enterprise
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and basically what that means um is that uh you're
making the round bigger right so it's kind of like
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sequoia does your series a and invest 10 million
i would come in and put another 10 million and
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now your series a is 20 million um same terms as
the um as sequoyah's round except you're now just
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grossing up the amount of capital um why are why
is that helpful well what it does is it allows
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somebody to price the deal so in this case david's
back sponsor priced the deal did the diligence and
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decided to underwrite metro mile at that price and
then they came to me and said hey um you know do
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you want to come and join this round essentially
and um i got to know the business um a lot
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of things that david said basically are true
the the thing that i will say is like you know
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everybody talks about um the value of machine
learning right and data oriented learning
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um the most obvious thing that you can do is
if you learn on top of a huge subset of data
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especially out in the real world like driving
data or any other kind of information is you
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should be taking risk on top of it and this
is why sort of these next generation insurance
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companies to me are so interesting because
it's probably where you're going to see
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machine learning um be used that just massive
massive scale because you're just gonna reprice
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risk and make it as david said much more dynamic
so anyways they showed it to me i um i really
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like the the product the metrics are uh really
amazing and so um i joined it's great i'm really
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excited for i'm really excited for uh friedberg
yeah congratulations great jamaat and i've never
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worked on anything together so it's awesome we're
doing our first project here on the all in podcast
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together all right so it sounds like a brilliant
idea and i'm just pissed so i'm not part of it
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i know i'm feeling like i i read i read that
like you're from me and sax yeah jason do you
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know about this i don't know anything i get i'm
the latest cut out of it first we're both out of
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it i need to get my beak wet you two we got the
wet thorpe can't get my beak you two narcissistic
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besties have been have been running around all day
touting every single unicorn you guys a bit of fun
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and robin hood i missed my allocation or uber
or whatever yeah all right new bestie rule new
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bestie rule everybody gets a slice even a little
tasty poo everybody gets their beak like the old
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neighborhood like the old neighborhood back a
little share let's jason why don't you start
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an angel listen ticket for every all-in podcast
listener yes all in podcast syndicate it will
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be on the syndicate.com ageless but yeah okay
yeah we'll do it we'll do with us into kit.com
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all in podcast and then we'll aggregate all
these uh subscribers can i just say twenty
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percent carry and you guys can suggest ideas we'll
do zero carry and we'll allow all the listeners
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to participate in our deals which i think would
be pretty cool um yeah listen i love how every
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time you loop my business into this whether it's
podcasting or syndicates you take out the money
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and the process i tell you what i have an idea
how about we spec this week in startups and uh
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you do it for no participation i'm the father of
growth you know how you grow by making things free
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you want to maximize demand just make
it free by the way uh on this topic uh
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sexy poo had this incredible tweet
this week which was basically like
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wow this is like my 95th uh unicorn that went
that filed to go public i mean literally every
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single unicorn that filed the speak tickle public
sacks was an angel investor which is incredible
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but the best follow-up to eat was zach weinberg
the co-founder of flatiron health whose tweet was
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i just want to congratulate myself on nothing for
having not been a part of any of these companies
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i would like to congratulate myself for making no
bets and taking no risk and getting no reward no
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i thought i thought zach's tweet was the best
sex don't you find it tiring like all these
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investments that you've made like don't these guys
call you and want to do meetings and chat all the
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time i mean you know this has got to be like a
huge amount of effort right well not not not i
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mean not just put the money in and turn around
well you know if you're not on the board your
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obligation is basically to respond when somebody
asks you for something and as an angel investor
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it is a little different when you're actually
like leading around and you're a board member
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i was making these investments back in 2012
2013 that's when these seeds were planted right
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these were 50k 100k 250k checks right so the
responsibilities proportional to the dollar amount
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so somewhere a little bigger than that
actually but um i mean i've written i've
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written checks you know seven figure checks in
some of these companies well sex according to
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your personal balance sheet that we got from
your accountants this week yeah phil hellmuth
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we see here a transaction for houzz is it true
you did the series b of houzz the entire series b
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no no i heard it was you led the series
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no no nea led that round i mean i invested
a lot as an individual i did co-lead um
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the series b or c of atapar um that was one that
i did as an individual that's incredible yeah
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that's amazing gonna be huge i have no idea
what that company is but that sounds awesome
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they manage funds they do portfolio software
yeah it's coming up on you know 100 million
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i'm just kidding i'm totally
kidding i'm totally kidding
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let's start the pod jkl where are we gonna start
well i mean i think now that we've also promoted
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exactly well i'm just happy to hear that that
jason was cut out of your deal as much as me when
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i yeah when i read about it on twitter i'm like i
better not be the only best to cut out this thing
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all right you're right you're totally you're
right you're right it is it is getting awkward
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now because people who watch this podcast
assume that we do everything together like
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literally they're like well you guys go grocery
shopping together you go on vacation together
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you guys live in the same time house yeah it's
that's not how it works um i i think the first
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thing we should we should talk about is just this
amazing uh moment in time when because of science
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you know in this podcast started during the
pandemic we have had as predicted by freeburg who
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gets to take two victory laps he said by the end
of the year we'd have vaccines and they would have
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because of this mrna if i remember
correctly 90 95 efficacy and sure enough
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the week after trump uh wins i'm sorry loses sorry
sacks he lost actually um the week after trump
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lost i know you didn't vote for him um the week
after he lost modern a pfizer then the next week
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moderna and then the next week oxford and
i understand johnson johnson is about to
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announce something and all of these have 90
to 95 percent efficacy and that they're going
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to be 40 50 and 60 million doses in december
january and february just from the first two
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in america alone so friedberg if you were to
put a number on when herd immunity hits because
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probably 20 or 30 percent of people have had it 20
30 percent of people have um some natural immunity
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how long is this going to take and could we be
out of be doing this from you know a warriors game
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next year when are we going to be able to do this
in person i think i don't know if it was test yeah
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i don't know if it was fouchy or someone that's
closer to the operation shared that they do think
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they can get 70 of americans immunized by may so
um my may yeah so you know if you'll remember a
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few podcasts ago i think i tried to explain a big
part of the budget that went into this operation
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warp speed was to parallelize production of
these vaccines while they were being tested
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and so we've been scaling up the production
and the manufacturing of these and if they
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weren't going to work we're just going to crash
them right a couple billion dollars who cares
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it's a good option for the american people
so we've got a ton of doses that have been
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produced it's about packaging and distribution
now and that's you know supposed to be kind of
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underway with the plan to be that on december
11th or 12th when they uh give the emergency
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use authorization these doses start showing up
uh we went all in we basically went all in blind
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like we just shoved the chips in and said we're
gonna make these vaccines even you know if they're
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not like it's more like a spray and pray um angel
investment portfolio you know we we bought uh a
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but we bought like four different things or five
different things we made it bets in all of them
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and hope that one of them pays off and it turns
out they're all going to pay off so you know or
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or chunk of them are going to pay off and we get
to have them ready you know in time to kind of
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make a difference here now all that being said if
you look at the case numbers in the us right now
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we could be as high as 30 percent of the american
people have already been infected with coronavirus
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based on some estimates so as of the june 30th
paper that was published from those dialysis
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patients and they did a pretty good statistical
interpretation of looking at antibodies in
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people's blood they estimate 10 of the american
population was infected by coronavirus as of
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june 30th and then if you look at the number of
people that have been infected since then and you
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apply this similar sort of multiple that you would
assume based on tests you know there's an estimate
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that we could already be up to 30 percent
of the u.s population has been infected wow
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and therefore immune and they're theoretically
mostly immune let's just say that right and
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so sure there's anecdotes and so on
but yeah let's just say generally yes
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immune and so you combine that with these vaccines
starting to roll out and we get you know a pretty
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kind of comfortable position in terms of the
pandemic and hopefully a couple of months here
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and that's why the market's going nuts and that's
why everyone i mean i don't know about you guys
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but i got some conference invites this last week
for conferences for next year that have been
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canceled this year and we're being put on
hold yeah so oh wow people are starting to
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lean for what time frame third quarter or fourth
quarter uh summer july yeah so people are now
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assuming that and they're booking hotel spaces
based on it that is extraordinary sacks you shared
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this new york times story why don't you
summarize it for the audience and i'd love
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to get your thoughts in addition to this as to
what this recovery might look like if in fact
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we have more vaccine than we need and even you
know a reasonable number of americans take it
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and don't believe that it's a conspiracy theory by
bill gates to control and the illuminati and all
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that stuff yeah i mean this new york times story
is pretty remarkable it's called politics science
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and the remarkable race for a coronavirus vaccine
this came out i think it just came out today in
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the new york times actually sorry it's published
it published november 21st updated november 24th
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um and it's pretty remarkable it describes
the effort by operation warp speed by the
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administration by pfizer by maduro and that kind
of gives you the behind the scenes play-by-play
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and reading the article you have to come away
thinking that the trump administration did
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a pretty good job with this whole warp speed
project um i don't know if the new york times
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uh realizes that it's making the trump
administration look so good or maybe
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they don't care anymore because he's he's
lost the election but the article does make
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um the administration look very good i mean
competitive first very confident first of all
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they shoveled money to the right people they you
know they offered fiser money pfizer didn't want
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it or need it but modernity did so they got a few
billion dollars moderna uh they parallel processed
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a bunch of different attempts here so that if
one company failed the others might succeed
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there was a sort of a reaganite cutting of
bureaucratic red tape wherever they could
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there were examples in the story of a drug company
needing something some supplies or what have you
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and they would call the administration and
they would you know make it happen and then
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finally the administration didn't do anything
to um to kind of mess with the science you know
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um in fact they describe how this the um this
new experimental mrna technique that they used
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to generate the vaccine they had the code for that
within two days they actually had the vaccine sort
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of printed if you will within weeks and really
what took all this time were the human trials
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with you know the three stage human trials which
the administration did not do anything to speed up
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and probably the irony of ironies the
supreme irony is there's a story there's a
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there's a bit in the story it actually begins with
the uh this guy slowly who's the head of the trump
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administration's effort to produce the vaccine he
actually slowed down the moderna human trials by
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about three weeks because they weren't including
enough minorities in the you know in the in the
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trial and that cost him three weeks if it weren't
for those three weeks the modernist vaccine
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would have happened before pfizer and it would
have come out about a week before the election
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so you gotta wonder like trump has got
to be pulling out his hair about um what
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about about about this twist of fate david
how does it attribute credit for warp speed
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and i'm going someplace with this so i'm just
asking you the question well i don't the article's
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not trying to attribute credit they're just kind
of describing the behind the scenes of of how
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pfizer moderna came up with their vaccines and um
it just but but in in describing you know pfizer
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modernity did the work of creating the vaccine but
in describing the ways that warp speed contributed
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they did things that were only helpful and nothing
that was harmful and so in that sense it made the
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trump administration look quite good yeah i think
the point is that the warp speed folks which
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is probably the least well-known working group
working on coronavirus to the rest of the public
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is because it was a lot of wonky insiders it was
sign of almost proving the exact opposite of what
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trump typically does which is you know some
idiotic nepotistic leaning where it's his
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daughter or it's his son-in-law running around
um you know completely and effectively you know
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uh doing something um where they become sort of
front and center for taking credit um in this
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case it was just a bunch of policy walks you never
heard about the project we only know about warp
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speed because a handful of us have talked about
it um and it turns out to actually have been good
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because they knew what they were doing and they
do enough to to not try to seek the credit and
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just get out of the way i mean it it proves almost
the antithesis of how the trump campaign you know
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managed their time in the white house well i mean
i you have a point where you know i was kind of
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reading this article wondering you know where was
jared kushner because if kushner knew about this
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there's no way he slows down the moderna vaccine
by three weeks um i mean that might have made the
00:19:38
difference right there and whether trump wins or
not can you imagine the effect on the election
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if the vaccine had come out one week before
november 3rd decide i think trump would have won
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decidedly if he had a vaccine or two out with 90
percent but i think he had no credibility even
00:19:54
though modern and pfizer were saying late november
and he said the the vaccines are around the corner
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his whole tenure was based on so much lying he was
the boy who cried wolf he's he was the president
00:20:07
who cried wolf by the time he told the truth
and he was telling the truth about the vaccines
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he it was like oh my lord he he told the truth in
the final three months can i give you the opposite
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david of that which is that if modernity basically
says hey guys we have a vaccine that works
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for white people and a disease that's you know
disproportionately killing blacks and you know
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hispanics and brown people uh native americans um
and all of a sudden people are like wait what the
00:20:37
maybe they would have gone into georgia and
they would have just crushed them even more
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and then you would have actually had the senate
flip too so you could have had a whole kind of
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distribution of outcomes there in a different
case because you could have had an angry reaction
00:20:48
as well we don't know um i guess well yeah i mean
i i think it's ironic that an administration that
00:20:57
was constantly accused of white supremacy probably
lost the election because they slowed down
00:21:04
this vaccine trial group to include more
minorities no i know but i think what we're
00:21:08
saying is it wasn't the actual administration it
was somebody it was somebody that actually knows
00:21:13
what they were doing we call that redemption
in the movie when the person actually loses
00:21:18
because they did the right thing it's kind of
redemption free book when you look at these mrna
00:21:23
vaccines you were educating us about them
last night um and also for a long time uh
00:21:31
tell the audience just one more time how um these
work briefly and what the potential for them is
00:21:39
in the future because i think a lot of us now are
starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel
00:21:44
this is going to be over we're going to be at
conferences or going traveling to europe or
00:21:48
whatever it is next summer but we all are
all going to be scarred for life thinking
00:21:53
you know when is the next coronavirus just like
for a decade we were on pins and needles when
00:21:57
is the next 911. so this is going to be scar
tissue uh for a generation or two of people
00:22:04
when the next covid comes how quickly will warp
speed 2.0 go yeah it's it's a it's the right
00:22:11
question um because our approach to doing
vaccines may have just changed permanently
00:22:17
um so you know every cell has your dna and dna
basically codes proteins uh every three letters
00:22:24
of dna makes an amino acid codes for a specific
amino acid there's 20 amino acids the way that
00:22:31
dna turns into proteins is through rna so rna is
kind of like a mirror copy of your dna it floats
00:22:37
into these things called ribosomes in your cells
and outcome proteins and those it's like a printer
00:22:42
right and so those ribosomes make your proteins
using those amino acid sequences coded by the
00:22:47
rna so the way that the vaccines work historically
is you'll get a dead virus which is basically the
00:22:54
protein of a virus your immune system then learns
to kill that or that protein oh man jesus my dog
00:23:03
your immune system then learns to remove
that protein from your body uh and that's
00:23:07
how you develop this memory uh your immune memory
to a specific protein and so they put this dead
00:23:13
art vaccine virus in your body and hopefully
your immune system learns a good response to it
00:23:17
mrna basically puts the rna in your body that
codes for that protein your cells then make that
00:23:24
protein and because it's making a lot more of
the protein in a more consistent you know way
00:23:29
theoretically the idea is your body develops a
much more robust immune memory and immune response
00:23:34
without it overloading your system with all
the immune cells trying to wipe that protein
00:23:38
out right away and so on the challenge is you're
putting rna in your body and we've always been
00:23:43
worried about we don't know what the side effects
of mixing rna in your body would be is it going to
00:23:46
change your dna is it going to change your genetic
makeup is it going to cause other delicarious side
00:23:50
effects so this technology this capability
this knowledge has been around forever i'm
00:23:54
not forever but for you know a long time and the
idea has always been we could use rna in this way
00:23:59
but you know no one wanted and we've used it in
animals and we've used it in plants and we've seen
00:24:03
the capabilities of using rna to do different
things like this but this is a big leap and so
00:24:09
uh you know we kind of left forward here
getting to the point that we felt comfortable
00:24:13
with you know rna as a treatment like this
and it's um it's working so in theory in the
00:24:17
future as sax points out you could take any
virus or any bacteria you could read its dna
00:24:22
you could do that in an hour then you could take
chunks of that dna and code rna force that your
00:24:26
body makes those proteins and theoretically
produce an immune response so that that's the
00:24:30
that's the science of like how do you how do you
create a new magazine i think that's the amazing
00:24:34
part is the way it's described you know in this
article is that it's almost like laser printing
00:24:40
or 3d printing a vaccine it's kind of like the
equivalent of that you just take the genome of
00:24:45
the virus and you know boom you've got the vaccine
and then all the other delay is about human trials
00:24:52
and testing of it but imagine if that there
was the next coronavirus is 10 times as deadly
00:24:59
you know something that says spreads as
contagiously as smallpox and as you know as deadly
00:25:05
as ebola or something like that we could have
a vaccine the next day you know like you could
00:25:11
we could have a challenge david would be as
we'd have it the next day like we did here
00:25:16
but we would be going through this
three-phase trial and so i want to
00:25:20
take a moment here and talk to chamoth about
something which is challenge trials um in the
00:25:24
uk they will start doing challenge trials for
those people who don't know what a challenge
00:25:28
trial is essentially they expose you to something
dangerous i.e a virus like covid and then
00:25:35
they give you the vaccine and then they give
you uh the virus as opposed to how we do a
00:25:41
three-phase trial which is you give the vaccine
to 30 000 people and placebo to 30 000 and then
00:25:48
you come back three months later and see how
many people got infected and it takes time
00:25:51
and money whereas challenge trials only take
risk on the individuals who are part of it
00:25:57
chamath hundreds of people in the science
community signed a letter and in the uk they're
00:26:02
going to be doing the first challenge trials in
january the united states is not doing these i'm
00:26:06
certain china is um do you think it's a moment in
time where we need to think about the ethics and
00:26:14
morality of challenge trials specifically and then
if so how do you execute them with that how do you
00:26:20
execute a challenge trial without it being unfair
um or too dangerous for people obviously you're
00:26:26
not going to just go into a prison and say hey
anybody want to get 10 years off the sentence join
00:26:29
the challenge trial that seems morally bankrupt
but we let people climb mountains without ropes so
00:26:35
right well i think this speaks to a whole bunch
of other issues that we've talked about on the
00:26:40
pod before you know another example of this
was section 230 before when we talked about it
00:26:45
we had a body of law that was created in a
moment of time that essentially was about
00:26:51
framing and understanding a specific pathway and
a way to use technologies that today look archaic
00:26:57
and we have to rewrite the laws in order to just
compensate and understand for where we are so if i
00:27:04
if you double click on trials as an example you
know if you have a solution for a rare disease
00:27:09
you can go in a specific pathway with the fda
and get breakthrough and fast track approval
00:27:14
but if you for example have uh you know a novel
immunotherapy cancer drug you probably you cannot
00:27:19
you know you have to do a multi-phase trial a
typical three-phase trial you have to solve for
00:27:23
very typical things like fatigue etc etc all these
things slow progress down now in a world where we
00:27:32
were somewhat flying blind 40 or 50 years ago we
didn't have you know things like crispr we didn't
00:27:38
have you know a real understanding of the genome
we didn't have delivery mechanisms like cartie you
00:27:43
would say okay yeah we should be really really
careful but i would say that the more you know
00:27:52
the more you can ease up on the rules because
you can actually empower people with a lot of
00:27:56
information and it shouldn't take a disaster
scenario for us to be iterative and experimental
00:28:03
so i think the challenge trial is really important
i think the concept of them make a lot of sense
00:28:08
i think a lot of government should employ
incentives to figure out who is eligible
00:28:14
and why but if you're a healthy adult male or
female and you want to participate in a trial for
00:28:20
whatever set of reasons you should be allowed to
do so and companies that want to run those trials
00:28:26
should be allowed to run them similarly if you
want to find a complementary pathway through
00:28:32
regulatory agencies to get drugs to the starting
line you should be able to do those too and i
00:28:38
think what we have to do is multi-path um these
compounds going forward because i think that's
00:28:43
where you accelerate all these technologies
ability to actually solve these diseases
00:28:47
freeberg why is it so controversial that um a
rocket ship company uh or you know people who want
00:28:56
to climb on mountains without ropes or or a rocket
ship coming like there are experimental pilots we
00:29:00
have astronauts they they take unbelievable risk
we send thousands of troops into harm's way for
00:29:08
many different reasons many of which sadly die and
they volunteer for those activities those people
00:29:15
are volunteering and compensated but when we
look at science and we look at a challenge trial
00:29:21
scientists say this is morally reprehensible to
compensate somebody for taking risk when that's
00:29:27
exactly what we do in the army we do it with
police officers and we do it with astronauts
00:29:32
help us understand how scientists think so
differently than say war i don't know if it's
00:29:38
scientists as much as it is you know regulatory
framework like the some people would call it a
00:29:45
nanny state and you know there are things
that the nanny state assumes individuals
00:29:50
uh don't have the capacity to understand the
extent of the potential loss or the or the nature
00:29:56
of the risk this is true for angel investing right
you have to be a qualified investor to invest in a
00:30:01
private company without appropriate disclosures
and it's true in a lot of other contexts so
00:30:07
um you know to to give people the authority to
make decisions like this it seems like my i have
00:30:13
no point of view that i'm kind of making here but
it seems like the the the the government assumes
00:30:18
or the elected officials assume or the populist
assumes that there are things that people aren't
00:30:23
really equipped to make decisions on because they
can't understand the risk because they're not
00:30:26
qualified and that and they get excluded from
those activities but sacs is the uh issue how
00:30:32
should we reframe stuff yeah yeah well i think
how should we frame it yeah i think assumption
00:30:38
of risk is is a is a really good principle and
it is a way for people to engage in potentially
00:30:47
harmful behaviors just because the behavior is is
potentially harmful doesn't mean you don't get to
00:30:51
do it um in the united states you're allowed to
do things that are manifestly harmful to yourself
00:30:57
like smoking well you know even worse if you're
an organ you can now do all kinds of hard drugs
00:31:03
i mean you can assume that risk for yourself so
you know if in portland oregon you can now take
00:31:09
heroin openly in the street with no consequence
but you can't participate in a trial that could
00:31:14
basically cure a cancer that's insane to me
i'll tell you what's the script yeah i'll tell
00:31:19
you i'll tell you the flip side of it um you're
allowed in nevada to play roulette i mean what the
00:31:25
[ __ ] like you know it's got a negative expected
value statistically factually for individuals
00:31:31
but the individual doesn't have the capacity
generally speaking that's playing roulette to
00:31:35
recognize that every dollar they're spending
at the roulette table is likely going to be
00:31:38
you know taken away from them like there's some
percentage of that that's going to be taken away
00:31:42
there's a five percent edge for the house on that
uh on that game and um and so we make the argument
00:31:47
in some cases that people don't have the capacity
to understand risk but in other cases it's okay
00:31:52
for them to not have the capacity to to take
risk and i think that there is this notion of
00:31:56
what some people call regulatory capture
that probably encompasses both of these
00:32:00
which is that there is some degree of profiteering
that has created some set of laws that kind of
00:32:05
manifestly capture that system in a certain way
so there are profitable casino enterprises that
00:32:10
say let's get people to spend their money
in a risky way that they don't understand
00:32:14
and that becomes the law and then
people in nevada are allowed to do that
00:32:17
there are also pharmaceutical companies that
will say we need to have huge regulatory burdens
00:32:21
so once we make that big investment and we get
patent approval and we can lock in that drug
00:32:25
we can charge a lot of money for it so i would
argue to some extent that the regulatory capture
00:32:30
associated with the profit hearing that happens on
the back end in pharmaceuticals has in large part
00:32:35
driven the structure around risk taking in in drug
trials particularly in the u.s i mean you can go
00:32:43
get whatever drug you want over the counter in
mexico right i mean we have a very different
00:32:47
system um it's the most it also happens to be the
most expensive in the world and the the rationale
00:32:52
is well you're the most protected right well the
dr drug infrastructure here has created to your
00:32:57
point because of regulation the entire um you know
cro industry which is a multi-multi-billion dollar
00:33:03
industry which basically is um
essentially a retardant of r d velocity
00:33:10
right its entire job is to slow things down create
these double-blinded studies by the way and so
00:33:16
many of these studies are not even double-blinded
they're not even actually scientifically rigorous
00:33:20
they get basically blown apart after the fact
so what are they really in the business of doing
00:33:25
it's because they're exploiting a business model
that was created by laws laws that were written
00:33:29
by regulators regulators that were in the hands
of lobbyists none of those folks truly understood
00:33:34
at the time but especially today what's really
possible so um you know it it does not make sense
00:33:41
in the united states of america just writ large
simply put that you can buy alcohol and drink
00:33:46
yourself into the ground buy cigarettes and smoke
yourself to death you know jump pull away your
00:33:51
money gamble away your money where your negative
ev or open you know openly do illicit drugs
00:33:59
but you can't participate in a thoughtful
trial backed by scientific research
00:34:03
in fairness jamath you can get away with smoking
fentanyl uh in san francisco and oregon but
00:34:11
it is illegal to use that plastic straw so be
careful folks the laws are very clear here that
00:34:16
plastic straw is going to get you in a lot of
trouble i don't know what the fine is but it is
00:34:23
i mean it would it wouldn't be so crazy if it
weren't true but to your point like you would
00:34:27
actually get arrested for having a plastic
bag then you will for having fentanyl in san
00:34:32
francisco absolutely they'll they'll arrest you
for the bag that the fentanyl is in but chester
00:34:37
boudin will not arrest you for the fentanyl in
the plastic bag uh stacks we've totally lost
00:34:42
the script but uh chamath sort of bridged this
with the 230 um discussion of common carrier and
00:34:51
hey you know uh we we had great intent with this
law but nobody saw social networks becoming this
00:34:58
dominant addictive et cetera so we need to be
more nimble as a government in changing these
00:35:03
regulations whether it's straws fentanyl challenge
trials or 230 you wrote a blog post about it
00:35:09
after we had our 2 30 discussion a lot of people
started talking about it have you come to some
00:35:12
conclusion as to an exit ramp for 230 or a
way to maintain it without you know throwing
00:35:19
the baby with the bath water yeah yeah well
okay just can i make one concluding thought on
00:35:24
sure of course so the reason why innovations
happen so fast on the internet is because of
00:35:30
you know one word permissionless right
permissionless innovation nobody who has
00:35:34
an idea for a startup needs to go get permission
from someone in the government you know repeatedly
00:35:39
that's really what makes a difference you know
mark zuckerberg as a you know sophomore in college
00:35:43
can just build his project larry and sergey as
phd students can just build their project ship it
00:35:50
start you know getting users and they don't
have to get the permission of a regulator whose
00:35:54
incentive by the way is just typically not to get
fired by approving something that might rebound on
00:36:01
them in some you know in some bad way and to keep
their job yeah keep their job i mean imagine if
00:36:06
you know imagine just taking like a random example
when elon launched starman remember where he put
00:36:12
the like he launched the tesla into space and
there's like a astronaut in there and it was
00:36:17
like this kind of really cool moment i assume he
just did it i assume he didn't get permission from
00:36:24
anybody to do it but could a moment like that have
really happened if he did have to get permission
00:36:29
no way it'd be like making its way up through
the chain no one would know what to think of it
00:36:33
no one would know whether they could be the one to
approve it and then what if something goes wrong
00:36:39
what if the tesla comes back down to earth and
you know turns into a meteor or whatever those
00:36:44
the scenarios that be running through their heads
nobody would have allowed it right and so when you
00:36:48
just let entrepreneurs do things like good things
happen right and that's why we've had so much
00:36:53
progress on the internet and in so many of these
other areas we've had much less progress because
00:36:59
you know what what a system like that selects for
is your ability to go lobby regulators as opposed
00:37:04
to just building your project and shipping it
i think that um one of the things that maybe
00:37:10
happens is that you know we we're all expecting or
maybe some of us i have definitely some version of
00:37:15
a new deal and some grand bargain and i wonder
maybe whether the new deal and our sort of like
00:37:21
our version of fdr over the next i don't know
10 years is the person that actually says guys
00:37:28
we're going to have a wholesale rewrite of
the regulatory infrastructure to account
00:37:32
for technology just period we're going to start
someplace reasonable and small and we're going to
00:37:37
make common sense reforms just observing the times
as they exist today right and we're going to go
00:37:43
and systematically try to make these industries
a little bit more resilient a little bit more
00:37:48
entrepreneurial you know a little bit uh less
corrupted by regulatory capture and lobbyists and
00:37:54
laws that just don't make sense 100 years later i
mean it'd be great if we could do that the reason
00:38:01
we can't is because how do you reform the law
without the lobbyists getting their fingers in it
00:38:06
right and and the problem is there's no
there's no lobbyist for the company that
00:38:11
doesn't exist yet right for the founder for the
entrepreneur who's got an idea in their head but
00:38:15
they haven't built their company yet there's
nobody representing that person in washington
00:38:21
right and what happens is you get new regulations
in washington some agency gets created they reach
00:38:27
out and touch an industry now every player that's
affected has to create their own lobbying you know
00:38:34
not true and david what do you think about this
what if the the advocate for the entrepreneur
00:38:40
or the uncreated company an uncreated product
is really the same as just individual civil
00:38:45
liberties and rights how are they really that
different because really what it's doing is saying
00:38:52
the entrenched organizational infrastructure
that runs my life gets deconstructed and then
00:38:58
power gets pushed down to be the individual
that's tantamount to the same thing i think
00:39:02
well we we have seen some we have seen some
pushback well i mean there is some silver
00:39:08
lining here if you look right now the citizens
of california obviously people have been fleeing
00:39:13
and we've been talking about california and the
one party system here causing so many problems
00:39:18
but we did have prop 22 uh pass and we
now have 900 000 people have signed to
00:39:25
recall governor newsom uh and these
seem to be some pushback against this
00:39:32
sort of nanny state uh where people can't
make decisions and then additionally uh
00:39:37
today the sec announced um that they will
allow gig working companies to give stock
00:39:47
to employees as part of their compensation up
to 15 of their compensation in fact uh hester um
00:39:56
uh how do you pronounce her last name it's not
pierce um you can't pronounce the word pierce
00:40:02
purse first person no it's spelled pierce but a
hester purse is worth following on the twitter e
00:40:07
h-e-s-t-e-r-p-e-i r c e hester purse i had her
on my pockets this week in startups and she um
00:40:14
they're they're really getting aggressive in
changing the accreditation law so anybody's
00:40:18
gonna be able to be an accredited investor you
become sophisticated through a testing mechanism
00:40:22
and now they want to let gig workers get by
the way sorry here's a perfect example of um
00:40:29
a regulatory body and infrastructure
that actually has changed with the times
00:40:34
i think the sec in fact i think we maybe we
talked about this a little bit the last time
00:40:39
i actually think one of the best trump appointees
has been jay clayton um and i actually think jay
00:40:45
clayton has done an incredibly good job and a
lot of what he's done is just deconstruct this
00:40:50
kind of nanny state and say people can become
educated and make good decisions for themselves
00:40:55
and because it's in some it's an area that's
relatively benign i.e investing people kind of
00:41:00
just let it happen without a lot of pushback and
everybody kind of generally supports it democrats
00:41:05
support it republicans support it and the outcomes
are really good to your point jason which is in
00:41:10
a world of zero rates how do you expect any just
you know average ordinary middle american who just
00:41:16
works a decent job to save for their retirement
to actually make enough money well they're going
00:41:20
to have to get educated and they're going to have
to find a way of putting their money to work in
00:41:24
in uh in assets that have a better return which
literally was illegal up until very recently
00:41:32
you were systematically letting the rich stay
rich and you were blocking the poor from having
00:41:37
an opportunity to advance like what if apple
store employees could get their paycheck and
00:41:41
say i want to take my paycheck 70 cash 30 you know
restrict restricted stock units at this discount
00:41:49
like we could let apple store employees make you
know a million dollars after five or ten years
00:41:55
of working there 10 20 years from now and have
generational wealth change david sacks you had
00:41:59
comment well i was going to astromoth do you
think this type of deregulation is going to
00:42:04
happen in the biden administration yes what you're
discussing is like a very really kind of classical
00:42:10
republican reaganite idea right i i agree and and
i think what's going to happen is you're i think
00:42:15
you're going to continue to see deregulation
in areas that are benign and non-controversial
00:42:22
so i think the sec um the fcc i think all
of these places you'll see movement i think
00:42:31
you'll probably actually see a lot more choice and
deregulation effectively in in medicare and cmmi
00:42:41
i think those places will move first and then
i think it'll be up to some leader politician
00:42:49
to then really rally the troops on some higher
order bits um and one of the biggest higher
00:42:54
order bits would be sort of around the broader
healthcare infrastructure um social security
00:43:01
education education is probably the
biggest one that's that's like the
00:43:04
it's just too sacrosanct for the democrats you
cannot get elected without the teachers and so
00:43:09
unless there is a startup that completely disrupts
teacher pay and teacher compensation um then the
00:43:16
public school teachers unions will continue to
dominate a lot of the federal and uh state policy
00:43:25
for the worse unfortunately freeberg if
you had one um regulation or series of
00:43:31
regulations or regulatory body you would most
like to see change for the good of humanity
00:43:38
and you know americans and the rest of humans
on the planet what would it be um uh probably
00:43:44
health uh yeah it's probably the drug process
the drug development process you know there was a
00:43:51
um a gene editing uh program that ran and
someone died this was what year was this 97 99
00:44:02
and they basically halted all
gene editing programs for 13 years
00:44:06
you know how many people died during that
time it was [ __ ] it's a crazy crazy um uh
00:44:12
fact uh where you know they're the um
you know the one death is too many rule
00:44:19
um you know basically doesn't take into
account the uh the kind of broader implications
00:44:24
um on the downside so yeah i think that one's
probably pretty important but you know there's
00:44:30
a good interview if you if you want to hear some
interesting thoughts and uh again uh not trying
00:44:36
to be an advocate for any political point of view
but um charles coke goes on tim ferriss have you
00:44:41
guys heard this podcast interview i've listened to
it yeah yeah and he highlights a couple of really
00:44:46
good examples about this regulatory capture
problem like if you're poor and you want to
00:44:51
become a hairdresser and you know start a salon
or go work in a salon and make money cutting hair
00:44:57
the cost and the burden for you to go get
the necessary approvals from the cosmetician
00:45:02
association is too burdensome for you know
the average person who's poor needs to
00:45:07
become a hairdresser and it's just insane
that you can't just go be a hairdresser
00:45:13
um the government government needs to ensure
that people don't get bad haircuts it's worse
00:45:19
yeah you could you you can you don't
need a license to be the engineer
00:45:24
that writes the machine learning code that either
drives a car autonomously or that you know uh
00:45:31
helps propel disinformation in the social network
but you do need to have a license to give someone
00:45:36
a buzz cut oh that's a bingo statement right there
yeah i mean in fairness i'm i am checking out
00:45:42
sax's new haircut here and i'm kind of thinking
so there should be more regulation there might be
00:45:47
i was practicing without a license you work
i mean yeah did you do that you can't see the
00:45:52
result of this one you're so you're so white and
pale you're you're blending into the background
00:46:00
shade it's impossible to see where your skin ends
your hair starts and the shade but i feel like the
00:46:07
the regulatory if you think about the framework
you know it extends into education too
00:46:11
like you can't go get an entry entry-level
job without a quote-unquote college degree
00:46:15
how [ __ ] useful is a college philosophy degree
to someone that's trying to get an entry level job
00:46:19
working at x y or z bank right like it's um it's
a bit absurd that the structure is set up so that
00:46:25
there are whether it's you know government or not
but there is effectively a hurdle um which is this
00:46:32
alternative to regulatory capture but it's like
call it embedded system you know capture it like
00:46:37
uh there is a significant kind of hurdle that
you have to get through that costs a lot and
00:46:41
the point of entry has gotten too high for most
and it really stalls things out and it's gonna
00:46:45
cause more damage than good well and it's also
been completely disconnected from the reality
00:46:51
of your employment potential people are going
into debt for two hundred thousand dollars in a
00:46:54
liberal arts degree that provides no skill that
is do we all agree that that makes sense like
00:46:59
does anyone on this in this group argue for
needing a bachelor's degree for everyone no
00:47:04
i don't think i i think i think it's useless
what do you guys think of isas income sharing
00:47:10
agreements these have become kind of lambda
school does them a bunch of other schools
00:47:15
david you saw a startup we just invested
in that's doing them and i think you liked
00:47:18
them at the demo day we did uh with kraft maybe
you know this idea is who should take the risk
00:47:25
for an education and when you look at an isa an
income sharing agreement what they're saying is
00:47:30
uh the school takes the risk they let you come
to school for free they give you what would be
00:47:34
the equivalent of let's say a fifteen thousand
dollar coding camp or growth marketer uh risk then
00:47:41
you pay double that amount over five six seven
years as a percentage of your income but if you
00:47:46
don't get income if you don't break 50k a year you
don't have to pay it back if you decide to go back
00:47:51
to school or your income drops below 50 you don't
have to do it can you imagine if a college had to
00:47:56
make that promise they should do it they should
start in college sports but they should do it
00:48:02
imagine you you know duke basically went
recruited kids and said listen we're going
00:48:06
to pay you to come to duke we're going to get
you educate educated we're going to teach you
00:48:10
how to play basketball better than anybody else
and we're going to take five percent of your
00:48:13
future earnings yes or no you're not going to
have to go to boosters you're not going to have
00:48:17
to take money you're not going to have to do any
of this stuff on the side but just be your best
00:48:21
learn to play the game we'll get you a reasonable
education we'll give you a good infrastructure
00:48:25
and we take five percent of the back end with
the so you could cap the upside right or maybe
00:48:31
maybe there's no cap and and but why do we always
have to care about all of this like it's like
00:48:35
you know it's like whatever maybe it's five
percent for the rest of your life you're going to
00:48:38
pay the government 50 you get nothing in return
so if you pay 5 and you get coach k to teach
00:48:43
you how to shoot a jumper it's better than that
right so why why isn't it possible and i remember
00:48:48
how people had this unbelievably paternalistic
allergic reaction to income sharing agreements
00:48:54
when they were first talked about they called
them indentured servitude and modern compared to
00:48:58
slavery and it was like oh my god oh so insulting
to but it's no different than signing a contract
00:49:03
with an agent to represent you when you first
start out in any industry music or or sports or
00:49:08
uh film or whatever one you could sign an agency
agreement where the agent is your rep for 10 20
00:49:13
years right i mean some of those agreements can
have long tails on them and that's effectively
00:49:17
the same you know look at what's happening look
at look at uh we can talk about this in a second
00:49:22
but like you know did you see what happened
with chappelle the last couple of days where
00:49:26
yeah let's go did you watch the video i loved it
yeah the video was incredible video was incredible
00:49:32
so the the the quick story on this is chappelle
basically did um he had a request he went to
00:49:36
netflix and he said take down chappelle show
netflix took it down and he did a little stand
00:49:41
up it's on his instagram it's like 18 minutes it's
it's fabulous as most chapelle stuff peaks peak
00:49:47
chapelle and he basically told this story which
essentially the punch line is like you know he
00:49:52
signed a contract where he just got completely
[ __ ] and he's like this is happening every
00:49:58
single day in so many markets and so the idea
that then you have actually a different market
00:50:05
which disrupts something by actually creating
transparency and something reasonable is all
00:50:10
of a sudden completely immoral makes no sense
to me so there's abuses happening all the time
00:50:15
that is but the the contract that chappelle
signed was indentured servitude he doesn't
00:50:20
even have the rights to his name he cannot
they took his name and likeness right yeah
00:50:34
this is a perfect tie back to the earlier
statement about uh you know do you have the
00:50:38
appropriate kind of um understanding of the risk
you're taking or the benefit that you're getting
00:50:43
um i think kanye's been doing this whole thing
about he doesn't own the masters to his music
00:50:47
originally right at the moment that he signed that
contract when he signed over all the masters you
00:50:53
know the master recordings and all the future
revenue rights to his music he was getting paid
00:50:57
a ton of money in his mind at that time he said oh
my gosh i'm getting whatever it was let's say it's
00:51:01
five million dollars i'm getting five million
dollars the most amount of money i've ever seen
00:51:05
it is absolutely worth me giving over the masters
of this music and the future royalty rights to
00:51:10
this music for 12 songs or whatever it is for me
to get five million dollars today and i can live
00:51:14
an amazing life and it will change everything for
me who is to say that he was not um you know of
00:51:20
the appropriate sound mind and understanding to
decide in that moment to take that five million
00:51:24
dollars and give up all future royalties to his
music well chappelle's chappelle's argument was
00:51:30
the people who are in that ecosystem are
all friends they're all working together
00:51:34
and they've commoditized the artist and they
collude to do this kind of uh and decide limiting
00:51:41
deals and i think what makes silicon valley so
special is that we collude the other direction
00:51:47
we want people to have equity participation and
we want the social contract of silicon valley is
00:51:52
i'm giving you equity i hope your your penny stock
becomes worth fifteen hundred dollars and that you
00:51:58
create multi-generational wealth and you become
an angel but i don't know look if i if i'm an
00:52:02
angel investor or want to be an angel investor and
some schmo tricks me into investing in his shitty
00:52:07
company and i just lose twenty thousand dollars
but i didn't know how to determine whether that
00:52:11
company was shitty or not because i've never done
investing before my book is it for the government
00:52:15
to regulate that circumstance and say you know
what you need to be a quote-unquote qualified
00:52:19
investor to be able to discern a good company for
a bad company or [ __ ] from not and it's going to
00:52:23
mean for these contracts right like i mean so you
know we're making the argument i think for the the
00:52:29
you know the regulatory framework for preventing
people from being able to have freedom of choice
00:52:34
and i think like earlier you know that the case
was made like people should be able to make
00:52:38
have freedom of choice at any point why should the
government kind of step in and make a decision for
00:52:41
me i think that they're i'm not i'm not advocating
advocating for government intervention my only
00:52:46
point is that there are morally reprehensible
things that are happening today using contracts
00:52:52
and that you know something like an income
sharing agreement actually rights the ship
00:52:56
in so many ways that's definitely the burden of
capitalism ultimately you know it devolves to that
00:53:00
right where like oh you're sick you have cancer
pay me a million dollars i'll give you this drug
00:53:05
so hollywood's a little bit of its own
beast where there's all these gatekeepers
00:53:10
and the gatekeepers are always trying to get
control over you know the creative product
00:53:15
and so yeah like you know signing contracts with
those sharks is always a dangerous thing to do
00:53:22
um i think silicon valley is very different we
have much more of a culture of of equity i think
00:53:27
the income sharing agreements are much more in
that vein and i think they're a great idea for
00:53:32
like any trade that demonstrably increases
your earning power right so the beauty of
00:53:38
lambda school is they pay for you to get an
education being a coder it then increases your
00:53:44
salary and they get a piece of that that's like
a win-win for everybody i think where this goes
00:53:49
if these isas are successful is that every trade
that's valuable will get its own isa type school
00:53:57
and then that gets peeled out of a university
education so what's left for colleges to do it's
00:54:03
basically you know all the stuff that doesn't
add value they're museums they're basically
00:54:08
like these monasteries again right they go back to
being monasteries not places where you get skills
00:54:14
we need to set we need to celebrate vocational
capability because i think like you know we have
00:54:18
we have so celebrated this mythical bachelor's
degree and it just means [ __ ] nothing it's
00:54:24
like it doesn't learn a trade and that's just
as frankly that should be as respected or more
00:54:30
but in the american culture you don't do that
right now i've never understood that if you go
00:54:35
for example to different countries around the
world europe's a good example actually of this
00:54:40
because it's the closest analog in terms of
quality of living to america there's a real
00:54:45
celebration of uh people who choose vocational
traitcraft because there's an entire educational
00:54:50
infrastructure that you can onboard yourself into
you can become a skilled person and you can have
00:54:55
a really good decent life and there's pride in the
work and there's pride in that work and in america
00:55:01
you know you covet this piece of paper the
piece of paper is really just a scam that
00:55:06
allows you know administrators to basically pay
themselves millions of dollars and or run an asset
00:55:12
management business as a the trojan horse of that
purpose um it just doesn't make any sense and so
00:55:18
you know i don't know it's i just think it's i
just think the most amazing thing about these
00:55:23
companies i've i've been digging into them
because i'm looking for more to invest in and
00:55:28
um these companies these uh companies that are
the trade schools that are basing themselves
00:55:33
on isis and there are ones who are doing welding
and plumbing and all kinds of different things and
00:55:37
there are isa platforms that are providing isis to
any school that wants them and doing like the sort
00:55:43
of aws of isis anyway these um for what this firm
told me was inside of one of these trade schools
00:55:51
they spend 50 percent of their time on placement
50 on education and that out of college they
00:55:57
spend 99.x amount of time on uh the education
and less than one percent on placement which
00:56:03
kind of attracts right i mean when we went to
college i don't know if it's changed much but
00:56:07
the career services center was like this
two-person office like in the worst part of campus
00:56:13
and they don't when you're doing an isa if you
accept more people who are unqualified and can't
00:56:20
aren't ready for the education are not motivated
for it it works against you because they're not
00:56:25
going to pay back the isa so you then get
sharper you know you sharpen the blade of
00:56:30
who gets accepted you start accepting the right
people these colleges they would accept anybody
00:56:34
who would come in and take the loans that was your
qualifier is did you pass your loan the isa as a
00:56:41
service idea is a brilliant idea i would invest in
that i like that idea as an investment way better
00:56:47
than running one of these uh schools you know
that that's basically issuing the isis themselves
00:56:53
but how amazing is that that we live in a country
where people are willing to you know as a movement
00:56:59
now people are willing to fund your education
because they know it's going to increase your
00:57:03
earning power and then they'll get paid on the
back end that's like fantastic and like that's all
00:57:08
like happening all that innovation is happening
right now without the government needing to get
00:57:12
involved or a big government loan program and the
historic people getting saddled people calling
00:57:17
it inventory literally like the voxes and the new
york times of the world and uh is having a 250 000
00:57:27
debt that you've got to pay down and you can never
get rid of in bankruptcy for the rest of your life
00:57:31
yeah that's real indentured service i think the
problem is that you know east coast left-leaning
00:57:38
um editorial publications um they
have to themselves justify their 190
00:57:44
000 um bachelor philosophy from oberlin college
so you know if you if you take that you know
00:57:52
oberlin is the number one listener base
we have on this podcast yeah you just lost
00:57:57
yeah but you're right once you've taken out every
valuable trade and and move them from a university
00:58:02
where you've got to pay a hundred thousand a year
to a an isa where it costs you nothing like what's
00:58:08
left it's just gonna be people studying
philosophy oh yeah people intersectionality
00:58:12
intersectionality standards they'll be
studying the past they'll be studying the past
00:58:16
yeah what a disaster to collapse upon itself
all right as we wrap up here um let's just
00:58:22
take a moment to think about what some people
are calling the big reset um it's thanksgiving
00:58:28
uh we have a change in management in the country
which is is obviously polarizing so i'll put that
00:58:34
aside but i think what's happened with these
vaccines in science is truly miraculous and
00:58:39
let's face it a lot of people is a lot of pain
and suffering this year a lot of people lost
00:58:43
their jobs a lot of people lost their restaurants
a lot of people are suffering from mental illness
00:58:49
some people are having to take care of their
kids and get to know them i mean it's been hard
00:58:52
for a lot of people sorry about that sex i wasn't
trying david do you know your children's names now
00:58:57
yeah i do now what's it like to spend three hours
with one of your children he's got flash cards in
00:59:04
front of him right now there's pictures
on the back the names on the other side
00:59:10
so anyway i was trying to be sincere the kids
would even occasionally run into my office during
00:59:15
coved you know yeah they want to talk to you and
hug you and show affection crazy they're like
00:59:19
excuse me sir who are you i'm your father actually
i am i thought i was just working for my office
00:59:27
and all these kids show up and tell me it's their
home so well we i just wanted to announce to the
00:59:33
all-in uh audience that we have upgraded friedberg
and sax's chips just last week uh chamath and i
00:59:38
pushed the update for the joy 1.7 update and uh
how's it been going to the two davids now that you
00:59:45
have a third emotion we now have emotion of joy
do not use it it feels good and warm inside body
00:59:54
do not use it all in same day spread it out
over a month hey david did you think that
00:59:59
trump uh actually resigned two days ago was that
was that was that the equivalent of a like or the
01:00:04
concession tweet it was acceptance of um you're
talking about when they he authorized the gsa to
01:00:12
release transition funds to biden yeah i mean that
that that that was his concession right there um
01:00:18
that that's that's basically what you're gonna
get out of him that's his acceptance of the of
01:00:22
the election result so after anger he's now went
into bargaining uh and then he was depressed and
01:00:29
now he's accepting well what basically happened
is you you know you had rudy and sydney powell
01:00:36
and you know that legal team going to court to try
and challenge all these rules the wack pack yeah
01:00:41
try to go to court to challenge all these rulings
i think rudy was like one in 35 meaning i think he
01:00:47
won one ruling and lost 35 so it was going very
very poorly so like you versus alan keating go
01:00:53
ahead yeah but yeah that's a whole separate story
we'll get into but uh but the thing that really
01:00:59
like ended it was when sydney powell came out with
this elaborate conspiracy theory that actually
01:01:05
trump lost the election because um communist code
writers had effectively you know infected this the
01:01:14
software that was running the election and somehow
hugo chavez was behind this even though he's been
01:01:20
dead for seven years hugo the republican governor
of georgia and secretary of state were in on it
01:01:28
anyway it was so wild and crazy that basically the
narrative just cracked and so then you had like
01:01:36
steve schwartzman come out and then sort of the
republican business community and and pat toomey
01:01:41
you know republican senator from pennsylvania came
out and they all just said look this is this is
01:01:46
ridiculous and so that that was the moment i think
at which th this narrative that the election was
01:01:52
stolen kind of cracked is and i think she kind of
she did everyone a favor by being so like off the
01:01:59
reservation that it just brought the whole thing
to like a meltdown sydney powell always whenever
01:02:05
i see her i always i i just think that she's one
second away from her dentures flying out of her
01:02:09
mouth and hitting the camera i mean that's your
crazy aunt that's the crazy aunt of thanksgiving
01:02:14
like she said she was gonna release the kraken
and i guess she meant the i think she might smoke
01:02:21
i think it was the hair dye running down
rudy's face yes exactly that's the crack
01:02:24
rudy's the kraken i mean i'm glad that it was
a total meltdown it was a total [ __ ] show
01:02:30
i'm glad the gop finally after trump's defeat
decided with 55 days left to go that they would
01:02:39
take a stand against well let me let me tell
you why let me tell you what i think is going
01:02:44
to happen now is i think that this new york times
article we talked about the top of the show about
01:02:49
the fact this operation warp speed that it was
a big success i think that the best narrative
01:02:55
for trump if he wants to maintain this idea
that he was robbed is not that he was sort of
01:03:00
legally robbed with fake votes or fake voting
software but rather just that if these pharma
01:03:05
companies have put out the news a week earlier
yes it would have meaningfully changed like
01:03:10
and i think he has an amazing story there i would
agree it's kind of yeah and it's kind of like you
01:03:16
know um when you have like a major sporting
event there's like a bad call by the refs
01:03:21
and all the fans basically said oh we were robbed
well you can't get that like result overturned it
01:03:26
is what it is you lost but you have a talking
point forever that you lost i mean if you go to
01:03:34
saint louis or whatever and you mentioned there's
an asterisk yeah there's an asterisk yeah yeah
01:03:40
when the national lebron association suspended
draymond in that series there are all these
01:03:44
sporting events with asterisks by them i mean like
you know if you go to st louis and mention the
01:03:49
name don denkinger you know people will know what
you're talking about the i think the car he was he
01:03:56
the saint louis cardinals lost the 85 world series
because of a first base umpire's call or at least
01:04:02
that's their view of it right and so i think you
know what what trump can do is is say that look
01:04:08
we were robbed because we never got credit for the
vaccine now if i i do think the economy is going
01:04:15
to bounce back really strong next year because of
the vaccines right i think you got to say that if
01:04:21
these vaccines end covert in the next three four
five months 2021's gonna be a great year so if
01:04:26
trump hands biden these vaccines and the economy
does well next year but something bad happens
01:04:32
between now and four years from now he'll say
i handed this guy everything on a solar platter
01:04:37
he screwed it up and that'll be his narrative
for four years from now good could happen i'm
01:04:42
just saying what do you what do you think about
um what do you guys think about the pick so far
01:04:48
janet yellen for treasury secretary
is great thank god elizabeth
01:04:57
i do think the biggest challenge we're gonna
face is um is this monetary policy issue i mean
01:05:03
the dollar is is you know in decline we printed
30 of the us dollars in circulation in the last
01:05:10
six months and everyone's cheering that the dow
is at 30 000. it's like well you know there's
01:05:15
30 more dollars so everything's gonna inflate
so i think there's a lot of work to do it's
01:05:20
great to have someone sitting in that seat who
understands economic policy really clearly and
01:05:25
and the title monetary policy uh yeah i think the
picks so far have been have been really um really
01:05:31
top-notch tony blinken friend of a couple of hours
for secretary of state he's a star um yellen's a
01:05:38
dove which i think is really good for just you
know did you guys know the chief of staff sacks
01:05:42
do you know who this guy he's been like biden's
aid for a long time kind of is that the deal
01:05:48
he was the founder of revolution with steve case
yeah yeah he comes from a venture background
01:05:52
all of biden's picks have been people
who've been long-time washington hands
01:05:56
who he's had personal relationships with for
a long time he really seems to value that
01:06:01
personal loyalty and they've also been kind
of you know nice and boring safe experience
01:06:08
i think he's delivering on kind of what
he promised to be which is a present we
01:06:14
can forget about yeah just tone it down that's
gonna be a caretaker president yeah what do we
01:06:19
do without trump to talk about on this podcast
because it's been about 34 we're going to need
01:06:24
a new topic to rotate in here we might need
to put in little netflix um as we wrap here
01:06:30
um what are you thankful for and what are you most
looking forward to next year um vis-a-vis just
01:06:38
it's been a rough year um i mean listen it's been
nice for people's equity portfolios of course
01:06:43
um but it's really what do you hope for america
for humanity for yourselves your family for your
01:06:48
friends you know what are you thankful for um
and uh i'll let you freedberg it looks like
01:06:54
your processing unit has delivered a result so
let's hear it the emotion bank has been cleared
01:07:05
uh it i look i don't think that this
year was any uh any cup of tea for anyone
01:07:13
so i think like everyone you kind of
value your friendships and your family
01:07:16
so it's uh it's been uh it's been a year you know
going into covid i was in the office every day
01:07:22
spending more time at home being closer to my
children i know their names by the way sex i'll
01:07:27
teach you how to learn them they're it's been it's
been actually really special being at home a lot
01:07:32
and being with the family a lot and realizing like
how much that stuff matters and how being close to
01:07:36
everyone matters because when you're in the run of
the life before you kind of get knocked back and
01:07:40
just put everything in perspective you miss
those moments so that's been really special
01:07:45
and important to me this year in a really kind of
personal way and just having friendships right i
01:07:51
mean it's great for us to all be able to to talk
as we do every day and have people you can kind of
01:07:55
connect with even if you're not sitting in person
i do think that everyone realizes they need that
01:08:00
so anyway it's been a it's been an insightful year
money aside it's yeah i was [ __ ] terrorized at
01:08:06
the start of this year about money and the end of
the year here you go finally there it is it's all
01:08:10
a [ __ ] roller coaster sold the first company and
now you got the second ipo congratulations mazel
01:08:15
sacks has your processing unit overloaded with
this question or are you going to be able to
01:08:20
articulate something thankful for and appreciate
it i i i agree with with all the things that
01:08:25
freeburg said um you know the flip side of working
from home all this time is you do get to spend a
01:08:30
lot more time with the kids um i personally have
i like this shift to remote work where i can do
01:08:38
a meeting from anywhere you know you don't
have to go to the office that's been kind of
01:08:43
kind of nice upside i think i think we've
probably all learned how self-sufficient
01:08:47
we can be i have learned how to give myself
a haircut apparently you guys don't think
01:08:52
i've done a very good job with it but um
well it's better than you have long hair yeah
01:09:00
so yeah but look i mean i'm thankful for um you
know knock on wood we all have our health and um
01:09:07
you know and uh it weirdly the the economy
silicon valley is doing still doing great
01:09:13
technology is doing great still the future and
i think the country is even though covet is kind
01:09:20
of at its worst right now i do think it's going
to get rapidly better as soon as these vaccines
01:09:24
come to market so i do think we'll we'll work
i do think 2021 will be a much much better year
01:09:30
chemoth um in this really crazy way
i actually now am pretty thankful
01:09:40
um for what i've learned during the pandemic i
mean i wish we didn't have to go through it but
01:09:46
um i think that it was the most psychologically
stressful period of my life um just to be
01:09:52
so isolated from everybody um and i learned
something about myself recently which is that uh
01:10:03
in psychology it's called repetitive com
compulsion which is sort of like you know you
01:10:08
repeat the sins of your father or in this way you
know i repeat these tired ways of behavior from my
01:10:15
teens and my 20s that were just unproductive and
in the day-to-day life of just running around and
01:10:22
going to meetings as david said like flying around
go to a meeting go to the office go here go there
01:10:28
you can make a lot of excuses for shitty behaviors
that you carry with you um and so what i'm really
01:10:34
thankful for is in this lockdown i've been forced
to really find the things that that i don't really
01:10:41
like about myself and try to fix them um so you
know uh i'm i'm really thankful for that because
01:10:48
i think uh hopefully everybody has something
positive to look at at the end of this and that's
01:10:52
definitely one thing for me it's very touching and
actually quite appropriate as we wrap here because
01:10:58
sax and free broke and i had some things we don't
like about you chamath that we wanted to bring up
01:11:04
you kind of knocked one off the list
already so we got four more to go
01:11:09
it's good you're doing this work
01:11:12
we were planning an intervention for this end of
the pod but you got to open the door so here we go
01:11:19
you know i'll wrap up was just saying you
know family and friends are the obvious
01:11:23
you know things that you appreciate at
this time i i am thankful also for the hope
01:11:30
uh that we've seen from uh you know what we
can do collectively as a society when we put
01:11:36
our minds to something warp speed comes to mind
uh these frontline workers i mean we we really
01:11:42
maybe have seen what a global uh rec a challenging
problem being solved can do and hopefully that can
01:11:49
translate into something like nuclear disarmament
a sustainable energy global warming et cetera and
01:11:55
so i think on a on a macro level the most macro
levels the species us humans as a species have now
01:12:01
had an enlightening moment just like world wars
uh and you know hiroshima and nagasaki kind of
01:12:07
changed people's perspective the entire world jade
and i were talking about that the other day how
01:12:12
the people looked at the world differently after
those uh horrific bombs went off i i think after
01:12:16
this bomb goes off we're gonna look at the world
and say hey we can solve problems right and maybe
01:12:20
we can be proactive about that and then finally i
think for the people suffering from mental illness
01:12:25
uh who maybe i was callous and made fun of uh or
maybe just didn't relate to i can relate to now
01:12:31
because i've felt depressed i have felt anxious
i have felt exhausted from this right and it's
01:12:36
the first time in the 49 years i've been on the
planet that i ever would say i felt depressed i
01:12:40
didn't understand what that meaning was when sax
would tell me how depressed he was i just never
01:12:46
never hit me i'm joking he never said that but
uh it's a good joke i am joking but i i you know
01:12:52
i think for people suffering from mental just
get help and and you know talk to people and and
01:12:56
i think this really opened my my eyes to that
and of course this podcast uh you know and and
01:13:02
our podcast was the best thing that that in one
of the best things in my life that came out of
01:13:07
this whole period i think for me too um and
you know i've heard that from a lot of the
01:13:11
people who listened to it and i'm sure if sax
and friedberg had a fourth emotion they would
01:13:16
they would agree frankly i think this podcast
has been doing nothing but costing me money
01:13:22
you know because i painted you out
to trump support god knows how many
01:13:25
you are not a trump supporter yeah god knows
how many deals i've lost because jason keeps
01:13:30
trolling me as a trump supporter and then on top
of it i get cut out of the only good bestie deal
01:13:37
if you would i thought at least
i would get this best seat deal
01:13:41
and you guys cut me out of it uh
okay listen i just want to be clear
01:13:46
sax is a conservative and a republican he
is not a trump supporter he did not vote for
01:13:51
trump this time he'd not vote for trump last
time he does not support trump's behavior you
01:13:55
can't out what he's voting dude sorry but he
told me he didn't vote for him well he did it
01:14:01
which one which one of us which one of us is going
to try to hire jared kushner as a general partner
01:14:07
uh no definitely not if you are saying most likely
because now you're reinforcing the theme that's
01:14:12
actually if you had to pick actually if you had to
pick a venture fund that is most like the higher
01:14:16
uh as a gp andreas anything from
are they still around founders fun
01:14:23
no i don't think peter wants to share the
spotlight uh okay um i go in jason don't
01:14:29
do anything to get a press release i don't
think that guy needs a fun to go work at true
01:14:35
yeah he'll just go buy another no he did get three
middle east peace deals done so but you know david
01:14:44
by the by the way by the way i mean talk talking
about inheriting incredible dividends but is it
01:14:50
the most incredible thing that um you can come
in and get middle east peace done but if you
01:14:55
really unpack middle east peace do you think
that middle east peace would have happened
01:14:59
if the cost of solar was not cheaper than
the cost of oil honestly be like if if if you
01:15:06
if you didn't see an end in sight to oil
do you think that the middle east peace
01:15:10
i don't think so well i i know what you're saying
which is that if the middle east wasn't becoming
01:15:15
less strategically relevant to us you know that
that creates degrees of freedom i think but um
01:15:22
yeah that's had profound benefits for silicon
valley too right like i mean all of a sudden that
01:15:26
went into the vision fund and the the money from
qatar and the money from like all these sovereign
01:15:32
wealth funds in the middle east has funded a lot
of venture funds has gone into direct late stage
01:15:36
rounds in a lot of companies and it's really been
a great boom for silicon valley people can make
01:15:41
fun of the companies getting overfunded and the
nonsense that's gone on all they want but like
01:15:45
money right it filters out into more angel
investing it filters out into more venture
01:15:50
lps and it ultimately gives the motivation this
ecosystem so i i i think that the damage to
01:15:55
oil has been great for silicon valley the most
incredible dividend of climate change is peace
01:16:01
it's like it's a it it has made radical islam
a failed startup you know a hyped series a that
01:16:08
couldn't raise its series b it's made you know
sworn enemies over thousands of years cooperate
01:16:14
together all for what reason because you got to
pull the oil out of the ground now and monetize it
01:16:21
because otherwise the cost of wind and you have
to divert solar yeah and you have to diversify
01:16:25
because otherwise the cost of wind and the cost
of solar is going to make pulling the oil out of
01:16:28
the ground economically and feasible within three
or four years yeah already can't do it all right
01:16:34
they took saudi aramco public they started selling
off their shares and they invested that capital
01:16:38
in tech and other stuff around the world and
that's it's been helpful but there is there is a
01:16:43
another factor at work which is the
fear of iran is now greater than
01:16:50
on the part of saudi arabia and israel that their
fear of iran is is now greater than whatever
01:16:56
mutual hostility they used to have and so it's
it's kind of bringing people together that way
01:17:01
but you got to give kushner credit for still
getting those deals done you know no one thought
01:17:04
he could do it i remember everyone was blocking
him i agree he's not he's not a [ __ ] and he's
01:17:10
not um he's the opposite of an abrasive guy and
he's very thoughtful and apparently very uh i
01:17:16
don't know if you guys know him personally
but he's supposed to be very smart and um
01:17:19
i'm sure that wherever he ends up next he's going
to do very well and he's going to get invited to
01:17:23
be in a lot of places yeah no it's clear he did
a very good job on the middle east stuff yeah by
01:17:29
the way how crazy is it that trump delivers on
hottest economy ever peace in the middle east
01:17:35
and three vaccines for coronavirus and he's
still lost who would you well it does go to
01:17:41
tell you what what people think of character
yeah character if you watch how he tweets but
01:17:47
he tweeted himself out of his if he acted normal
sacks he could actually take those victories if
01:17:51
he stopped the personal attacks if he stopped the
grifting he would have won he could he could have
01:17:56
been he actually it would have been more than one
if he could have been raymond if he could he could
01:18:00
exactly what i was thinking if he came in in 2016
calm cool and collected with the team where there
01:18:07
was dial down the insecurity and dial up sort of
the intensity of actually calling people out for
01:18:14
not passing progressive change he would have been
elected in a landslide people would have said well
01:18:19
on the way in we were afraid but after four
years the guy could have been magnanimous is what
01:18:23
you're saying yeah and uh it was a real missed
opportunity for him i still think much of trump
01:18:29
is he's a wwe superstar and that's what people
voted for it's why jesse ventura got elected
01:18:34
governor of minnesota that's why arnold
schwarzenegger got elected governor of california
01:18:39
the average you know person that's looking at that
guy versus you know the old dude that doesn't talk
01:18:44
and you know saying some weird stuff about policy
it's like oh man that guy looks awesome let's put
01:18:49
him in office like this is going to be [ __
] fun and if he turned it down when he got in
01:18:52
office he'd be much less appealing i think to a
lot of people i think well then my caricature of
01:18:58
himself that makes him so so appealing then i'd
like to go i'd like to go on the record with my
01:19:03
15-year projection then or uh which is
that the rock is gonna run for president
01:19:10
uh i i think you know the iran situation just
to put that in perspective david if you look
01:19:15
at the age distribution on the
chart i just put in the chat
01:19:18
it is just extraordinary how young that country
is the median age is i think 20 or 29 years old
01:19:24
and the they're barely holding on to power
there and it is going to flip into a much
01:19:31
more progressive society um than it is now they
are barely holding on when you look at how many
01:19:36
25 year olds and 30 year olds there are in
that country who are drinking and watching tv
01:19:43
and they have the internet and
they're watching porn and they're
01:19:47
gambling i'm sure and buying bitcoin and doing all
this crazy stuff that country's barely holding on
01:19:52
it's going to be a crazy civil war and let's
just hope they don't have nuclear bombs when
01:19:56
that civil war yeah guys guys guys like being
being like extremist it's just like it's just
01:20:01
a bad product market fit now you know it's just
like not worth it there's there's no money to fund
01:20:07
it nobody cares that much anymore everybody's
moving low nps score yeah would you recommend
01:20:14
extremism to a friend or family member too all
right uh this has been another all-in podcast
01:20:24
for bestie c the rain man david sacks and the
queen of quinoa on his coming out party today
01:20:30
ipo coming up for metro mile congratulations to
friedberg congratulations to chamoth on the pipe
01:20:36
sax and i we're gonna have to figure out
a way to lick our wounds and wet our beaks
01:20:40
let's put our thinking caps on and over the
break find a deal we can exclude these two from
01:20:47
we gotta we gotta get in early get thirty percent
of a company and then we gotta have chamoth
01:20:51
spack it and freeburg do the late stage
deal with all this metro mile money
01:20:55
yeah and we'll see you all next time on the all-in
podcast that was [ __ ] great best one yet yeah
01:21:01
you guys want to see something funny you guys see
that video my wife just sent me that's my uh dog
01:21:05
taking a [ __ ] on your driveway sex wait i don't
see it oh man where is it i want to see that deuce
01:21:21
can you take a [ __ ] on his model x
oh my god and we'd all have code 13.
01:21:29
oh no everybody we rolled over the credits
