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hey everybody welcome to the all-in podcast this
is our fifth episode as you know we regularly publish this podcast well every two to four weeks
something like that and just to give you a little
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idea of how well this is going the podcasts peaked
at number 10 in zag podcast even though we never
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publish it and we're only 400 so tell your friends
about the podcast so we could be number one and
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just dunk on traditional media which is full of
people who have us as the guests chasing number
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ten on what Apple Apple technology podcasts
we literally raced I mean it went from like
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we debuted in the 20s then the teens and then boom
we hit number 10 and I was talking to somebody in
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media who has us on as guest and I was like listen
I formed a super team and we're now getting more
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traffic I'm sorry who are you talking to just like
a mirror where you were just looking yourself I mean you are so [ __ ] arrogant after that shitty
video what video are you buried - what oh my god
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you want me to say it tell the listeners you are
a me just somebody an a how somebody made a cut
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of the billion times Jason mentioned he was an
early investor in uber all right take it easy
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Virgin Galactic slash slack investor I don't I
don't say anything I know the companies on the
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Chiron the lower third every time you're on CNBC
everybody my problems I have too many unicorns to
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mention just one right they just go with one
dimension they just go with PayPal and knows Peter T Oh David David I have a question why is
there a picture of two pregnant men behind you for
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men to be impregnated this is a recent picture of
Jason I on the golf course and I'm not sure who's
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more out of shape you look like you're about
the class in fairness it's a hundred degrees
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it's a hundred and six degrees at 80% humidity and
I kid you not this is the this was the second and
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third time I play golf this was the third time
and I'm gonna just ask D frame David Freiburg is
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here of course he's our science friend buddy and
shabbath property is here how many holes I want
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one of you to set the over-under on how many holes
we completed each day the maximum number of holes
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we are eluded for okay Chamorro a lot of four and
you're taking me over it was Sachs five five and
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there is a there's a there's a red door every five
holes so that may have had something to do with it
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I took nine because I figured Jason was on his
rights to the hot dogs well that's where the red doors were the hot dogs are you know you know why
I said I said these two these two dorks with ADHD
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can barely make it an hour doing anything and so
if you think an average Brown takes four hours and
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basically you know you get through four holes
in about an hour and then you want to give up we got to the fifth hole I am addicted to golf
now I don't know if you guys know this you can
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gamble on golf okay so I I the biggest match I
ever played was as was a five hundred thousand
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million dollar NASA I don't know what at NASA is
I lost I lost one and a half that's LS 750 K what
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what is it Matz that I bet NASA NASA is basically
a gambling bet on a per hole basis not it we we
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had we had just a ton of fun and it was great
because this was the first time I've ever it's the single best aspect of golf in my opinion
if you gamble it makes that game one of the
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most incredible games because people with mental
fortitude who cannot play it all can show up and
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literally make hundreds of thousands or millions
of dollars yeah we were playing for hundreds of
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dollars per hole so let's just leave it at that I
thought we play hundred dollars holes so it was it was just for fun but man I I don't know about you
guys do we have some we know if we know somebody
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who's got a membership in one of these places I'd
love to go back out again but it was great fun and
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Shadow Creek come to Shadow Creek in Vegas we can
play it's probably the best gambling golf course in the world okay I'm in so let's get to business
for those of you who are tuning in for the first
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time Chimel Paulo Hypatia is my co here co-host
here on the podcast we've been friends since we
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both did a very brief tour at AOL he then went
to work for Mayfield which is a venture firm you
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might not have heard of he stayed there for about
27 weeks before going to work for Mark Zuckerberg
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he secured the bag then started his own venture
firm it grew way too big and he kind of got bored
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having to manage 100 people so now he's running
his home office venture firm and doing two deals
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a year the one you've certainly heard of is Virgin
Galactic where he's taking people to space and he
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did ass back for that IPO B and IPOC are lined
up from what I understand will correct me if I
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am wrong and he'll be packing two more companies
once a year I guess we'll be the pace is that correct Chema among other things but yeah yeah and
then David Sachs has now become and David Freiberg
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have become regulars we've decided we're gonna
stick with this foursome as it goes because we're
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getting a really nice passing of the ball around
topics and David Sachs went to Stanford with folks
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you know like Keith roboy Peter teal during an
era where they were a bunch of huge nerds who
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created a way to transfer money on Palm Pilots
called PayPal it didn't work until they decided
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to move it to email I'm not sure who's idea who
gets credit for moving it to email sacks sacks
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who decided like hey Adam silence is his way of
saying me cuz it was it was an abject failure
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when you tried to send money between Palm Pilots
Peter Thiel's original idea but then somebody woke up and said well why don't we just do this over
email but he hasn't said let me tell you the names
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at PayPal he has not said yet musk teal Hoffman
left chin silenced radio silence so far David
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sacks Jeremy Stoppelman Chad Hurley from YouTube
cherry Stockman for Yelp anyway he was part of
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that cohort then he made a movie called thank you
for smoking which was Jason Reitman first film
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jason reitman then went on to great success that
film actually made money sachs was so absolutely
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depressed by how long it took to make one film and
how painful it was he then decided to go create a billion dollar company and under three years
called Yammer which Chamath made a ton of money
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on any cackles about regularly and then david
freiburg is with us he is just the smartest kid
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at the table but somehow figures out how to lose
tons of money to us in poker he created clara calm
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and sold it to monsanto he created Metro Mile and
he created Itza which felt horribly but that just
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goes to show you nobody even remembers what Itza
is but they do remember his giant multi-billion dollar companies and he now is running his own
startup studio which is making incredible ly
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interesting companies can I talk about the one
thats related to beverages or not not yet okay
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anyway there's a company related to beverages that
is so game-changing I said no literally you can't
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say it he showed it to us under friend EA I just
said can I talk about the beverage company yes
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or no I'm trying to give the guy goddamn plug
here but anyway he says he can can't do a plug I'm not doing a plug but I'm teasing it and I
think he's literally sitting on what could wind
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up being the greatest snow successful company of
the entire group it's not period okay let's jump
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in I want to talk let's turn out the David you
sold climate to Monsanto for a billion dollars
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back in the day when it was shocking to people
that amount of money it still is but you know
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you were one of the first sort of quote-unquote
unicorns and then you you know we're right in the front seat in Monsanto probably could have been
CEO if you wanted I want you to talk to me about
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what is going on with Bayer Monsanto roundup and
I want to use that as a jumping off point to talk
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about the World Health Organization so roundup is
a molecule known as glyphosate and it's been used
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as a herbicide for decades and for decades it was
very well studied the US EPA and the FDA and you
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FDA and global health organizations have studied
it carefully because of its incredible use it is
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it biodegrades the core molecule glyphosate
biodegrades you know in a couple of days and
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it is a very effective herbicide so when farmers
grow stuff they don't want weeds growing in the field and roundup was a pretty effective way at
getting rid of weeds so you could get more crop
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per acre or more yield per acre a long time
people thought that roundup like many of the
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traditional persistent chemical herbicides
was carcinogenic and people were concerned about that and as a result there was a lot of
studying done in fact before I sold my company
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to Monsanto I spent a lot of time researching
roundup and glide to say to make sure that it was safe that I wasn't selling my company to what
everyone was saying was the devil at the time and
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from a scientific basis I felt pretty comfortable
about the the data the studies the research that
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had been done when I was at Monsanto there was
a bit of a political event that took place at
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the World Health Organization the World Health
Organization runs a group called IARC the it's a
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Cancer Research Institute that's part of the w-h-o
and there was a gentleman who was politically
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trying to get himself on that council to make the
case that glyphosate was carcinogenic and years
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later a Reuters reporter identified how he was
able to get this council to disregard a number
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of scientific findings and studies including the
US EPA and other very wide broad ranging studies
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by international organizations and showing that
roundup or glyphosate was non carcinogenic but the political process by which he was able to
get on the council get that data excluded from
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a study and then get IARC to declare roundup
or glyphosate a possible carcinogen or probable
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carcinogen then triggered a bunch of tort lawyers
in the United States to start suing Monsanto and
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now Bayer because Bader bought Monsanto a number
of years ago for causing cancer and the data is
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absent but the way the US court system works is
if you have some probable definition and you can get a jury to say yes and the probable cause was
there's a probable carcinogen label applied to it
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by IARC and this Reuters reporter years ago did
a great job highlighting how whole thing was kind
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of politically motivated and and the data and the
science from a broad range of scientists including
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the triple-a s a lot of scientific membership
organizations very definitively and clearly show
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that glyphosate is non carcinogenic but you know
it was super troubling and frustrating now look
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this doesn't bother me personally anymore I have
no interest whatsoever but it turns out that these
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lawsuits are now gonna cost Monsanto and now Bayer
which bought Monsanto somewhere between ten and
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fifteen billion dollars to settle this and this is
all a function of some political hacking that took
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place at the w-h-o so for a long time I've had a
bit of a concern about how the WHL operates and
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the process by which they do scientific assessment
and validation and a lot of this has obviously become much more apparent with the coronavirus
crisis and their response with respect to masks
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and treatment and so on so that's a little bit
of the background I think you're referring to tomorrow and so you get your math if you want to
know I mean like it to me I I think that this is
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such an interesting thing I I wanted to use it
as this on-ramp to the w-h-o largely because it's like V inaptitude keeps compounding in that
organization I just read that we still don't have
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a definitive posture on masks from the w-h-o and
that they are finally ceding ground to the idea
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that the corona virus could partially be spread
in air I mean this is so bizarre because it's
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the middle of July there are three million cases
and half a million people who have died and we
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are still there and so you know when I saw that
Trump pulled out of the w-h-o you know in this
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weird way the way he did it was kind of cartoonish
and stupid and you know kind of an insolent child
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but the reason he did it was actually pretty
reasonable because this organization is not a
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scientific or health body it's an academic body
and you know you can see this in universities
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where all of a sudden things tilt away from
facts and it tilts towards you know all kinds
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of very very very small points of sort of like
political capital that people fight over and so
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these politicized organizations are incredible
and to the point at which we saw you know this
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past week the report that well over 250 of their
own scientists who they rely on said hey it's very
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clear that this is an airborne phenomenon aerosol
tiny micro particles of aerosol when people talk
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when they sing when they cough when they sneeze
all this obvious stuff floats in the air and if you ever closed air conditioned you know location
like say a church in the south or a hotel or a
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casino it's not a good idea to be in there and
it's especially not a bad idea bad idea to take
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your mask off so now the w-h-o is over - and Trump
as you said in his just horrific ly comical way
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can explain as we're very clearly explaining that
this is a political organization that is funded by
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a duopoly of superpowers that have many issues
which we're going to get into today and we it's
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they're able to say who the duopoly is sex when
you look at this being our token conservative
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here and you see the Trump win how frustrating is
it for you that trumps delivery and it's persona
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when he is right and a person can't be wrong
all the time I'm proof positive of that you
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you have to deal with the fact that he doesn't is
such a stupid inane way that you don't actually
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get credit for the win well you know Trump is
often the the bull in the china shop and you
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know kind of disrupts the status quo by throwing
a grenade into it but frequently there there are
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good reasons why this house quote needs to be
disrupted and the the New York Times laid out
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the case in a news story on who the the one that
reported the scientists complaining that you were
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talking about it was just a straight news story
but it almost came across as an expose because
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whose incompetence was laid out so starkly the
fact that they were slow on mass and opposed them
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and I think kind of lied about them and then and
to be downplaying the airborne nature of the virus
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in favor of maintaining this narrative that it's
spread through touching surfaces or fomites which
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I think people are realizing now is much much less
likely and so yeah you do kind of have to wonder
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whose side is is who on and the the New York
Times article kind of suggests why they do this
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which is when they issue a declaration they have
to think about the ramifications in all of their
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member countries and so what ends up happening is
they sort of start with the policy implication or
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political result that they are thinking about and
they kind of reverse-engineer the science and you
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know the article talks about how you know if who
were to come out and and sort of be very clear
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about airborne transmission that could affect
spending or you know political budgets and all these different countries and so they've been
reluctant to do that so yeah it's a it's a it's
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a organization that's sort of political first and
then reverse engineers the science to fit that and you know what this reminds me of it's like when
you have giant investors on the board of a company
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the management team comes out and now they've
got to present like a pivot or an acquisition or whatever it is and they're thinking well okay
we've got this funding source these people own 26
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percent of who this person owns 22 percent we've
now got to present it to them and what are the
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ramp down stream ramifications luckily there's
an alignment in a single company the alignment
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is we won't want the company's share price to go
up but here in the world it is not equally aligned what is in China's best interest what's in the
--use best interest and what's in America's best
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interest might be radically different and they
are literally funding them correct your mouth well there's a they are there there's a there's this
thing called sailor's law right which many of us
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kind of have seen play out which is that academic
the the saying is something like academic politics
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are so vicious because the stakes are so small
and in this interesting way the w-h-o has lost
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the script because they fight over politics who
gets to say what who's being positioned and they
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lose sight of the real down street in my opinion
the downstream implications of the things that they have because if they actually just thought
from first principles and tried to be a truly
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independent body that said we are going to take
the capital we're given from the countries that are supporting us and actually do the best and
actually publish like what is the best thing to
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do for example in the case of coronavirus and be
definitive and iterate we'd be in a much better
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place but a lot of what is allowed the posture
around coronavirus to transition from a health
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issue to a political issue in many ways has been
because organizations like the w-h-o and the cdc
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are political bodies and their academic bodies
and so the incentives of the players within
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these organizations are not to necessarily you
know project the right public health positioning
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they are at some level to think about their own
career trajectory and the political machinations
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that happen within the organization that are blind
to normal citizens like us that just consume the
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output and then so when you see something like an
inability to give a definitive ruling on things
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like masks or you know other things you just kind
of scratch your head and wonder is it that they're
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dumb and the answer is no it's not that they're
dumb they're just motivated by very different things than public health all the time which might
be including keeping their jobs and the fact that
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we had David friedenberg on this podcast and then
Sachs you know chiming in after it surely after
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just definitively saying first principles why
wouldn't you wear wet wear a mask what is the
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possible downside and Friedberg saying hey I'm
getting some testing equipment we should just
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be doing mass testing Freebird when you look at
this and how when we started the podcast I think
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in March or April we were very clear as people
not in the with the exception of herself not in the health care space in any way why can't
they what would be a better structure for the
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WHO and or is there a better structure than just
a bunch of you know randos like us on a podcast
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very easily seeing through first principles
that a 79 cent mask is a no-brainer that getting testing math testing and recording it
every day and doing sampling what is the better
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solution here for governance or for dealing with
these type of you know really large problems and
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ones that kind of have a clock that's the other
thing about this problem is this this problem came
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with a countdown clock you had to make a really
fast decision in order to protect yourself and we
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made a really drawn-out decision now we're paying
the price I mean I think under the circumstances you outline you know you need leadership right
so you need probably a country or some entity
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to step forward and lead with respect to being
proactive and aggressive with action because any
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multinational oversight body or political body is
gonna be kind of you know molasses tout it's gonna
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be stalled out with the the processes and the
competing interest as you guys have highlighted so the libertarian argument would be let the
free market drive outcomes and you know some
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folks will succeed and some folks will fail if
we want all of humanity to succeed then you know
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the likely scenario is what we've seen with with
world wars and such which is you need leadership you need one organization or one entity or one
national body to step forward and say this is what
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we're doing and we're gonna lead and the world
was absent leadership over the last six months historically the US has filled that void but that
certainly wasn't the case this year and so you
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know it seems to me like you're not gonna find a
political governing system multinational governing system that's gonna be successful in solving these
kind of existential global problems overnight you
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really need someone to step forward and the u.s.
is kind of leaving a bit of a gap this might be
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a good segue because the question next is who's
gonna fill that gap going forward yeah so let's make that segue when you look at the the duopoly
that currently is I would say on par now I don't
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think we can say we're the superpower anymore and
that China is an up-and-coming superpower it's pretty clear they are an equal superpower I don't
know if anybody here disagrees with that right
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now but if we have an edge it's a very minor one
at this point how do we look at health problems
00:21:58
with an authoritarian country where individuals do
not vote and there is a god king who has recently
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said I will be the god king for the rest of my
life for sure how do we manage this relationship
00:22:13
with China Friedberg then we can pass it over so
from a healthcare perspective let's start there
00:22:20
for sure and then whatever other major issue you
would like to then segue into climate change comes
00:22:27
to mind trade comes to mind Human Rights comes
to mind I would imagine the biggest the argument
00:22:33
that your geopolitical commentators would make
who are probably more experienced than experts in this than any of us would probably relate to
you know the degree of influence you know the
00:22:44
question of who has the most influence globally
maybe kind of the way that you define who has the
00:22:50
most power globally and so you know in the
current circumstance you can look at trade
00:22:57
balance between China and other nations you can
look at trade balance between the US and other nations and you can look at the balance sheet the
assets and and the debt owed and you're right I
00:23:05
mean a lot of people are making the case that
that we're kind of reaching a point of parody through some metric or some set of equations here
and at this point there's there's going to be a
00:23:15
jockeying for leadership globally in terms of
influence and so that will have ramifications
00:23:20
with respect to things that are global in nature
like global pandemics and I think this is a really
00:23:28
kind of key for a moment a flashpoint moment for
us because we are facing that sort you know we did
00:23:34
face that circumstance this year and obviously
we took the raw end of the deal we've we failed most I mean we all concur on that we thought we
did worst China is just like an extremely good
00:23:45
example of focusing on strategy while the rest of
us focused on tactics you know the last 20 years
00:23:50
have been punctuated by the United States spending
literally trillions of dollars on endless wars and
00:23:57
unnecessary military infrastructure and all kinds
of wasted pork barrel spending and programs that
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just have resulted in zero ROI for the United
States and it's taxpayers and citizens and
00:24:11
instead what it China do they basically went
around the world and they used the equivalent
00:24:17
amount of dollars and they said every war that
the United States fights is a war that we can essentially be silent on let them do that dirty
work and what we will do instead is we will go and
00:24:27
basically buy and own large swaths of Southeast
Asia large swaths of Africa which is you know the
00:24:34
emerging labor pools that will drive GDP forward
for us and what they've essentially created is
00:24:40
not necessarily a voting bloc but a productivity
bloc and that's what's so you know interesting and
00:24:48
also really important to understand which is
that China is fighting not an ideological war
00:24:53
they're fighting an economic war and it is one
where they are buying you know member states to
00:25:01
join them with their capital and so we've kind of
like not seen it and it's unfortunately happened
00:25:08
right under our nose so now what we need to do
is we need to sort of wake up to this reality and have a very aggressive point of view around
what you know matter so by the way this is also
00:25:19
why and I'll hand the mic to David after this but
this is also why I think like we have completely
00:25:25
wasted so much time focusing on you know all these
other countries that just don't matter anymore and
00:25:31
you know I don't say that emotionally I just say
it practically like every single minute we spend
00:25:36
on Russia is just the wasted time this is a you
know country that just won't fundamentally matter
00:25:42
in the world over the next 15 to 20 years large
swathes of Europe you know they're ideologically
00:25:48
aligned but they just don't matter the United
States has to develop a really specific strategic
00:25:55
viewpoint on the fact that it is US versus China
whether we like it or not and it starts in things
00:26:04
like public policy but it stretches to everything
including capitalism technology intellectual
00:26:10
property healthcare and this war will not be
fought on the ground with guns it'll be fought
00:26:19
with computers and it'll be fought with money yeah
no need to realize owns and joint ventures sacks
00:26:25
what are your thoughts here on this coming Cold
War you know we beat the Russians in the cold last
00:26:31
Cold War and to jamaat's point the only thing they
have really going for them is they're incredibly
00:26:38
sinister KGB style information warfare and the
decreasing value of their oil and irrelevance
00:26:48
which is why they have to do things like mess with
us on social media I mean that literally I feel
00:26:53
like it's like the last couple of dying techniques
they've got in their playbook from you know the 80s as the KGB and they got a KGB agent running
the country when we look at China how do you frame
00:27:05
our relationship with them and what would be the
best practice for the next ten years midterm well
00:27:13
I think I think what you've seen just really in
the last couple of weeks is a critical mass of scholarship and punditry declaring that we are in
a new cold war with China and I think you know of
00:27:26
all the momentous news events that have happened
this year from kovat to you the riots and protests
00:27:34
I think that the most newsworthy and historically
important event will be the beginning of this and
00:27:43
the recognition that we are now in cold war too
so takedown court tick-tock is part of it I mean
00:27:50
it's paradoxical about a dance app is literally at
the tip of the spear I mean I think any tick-tock
00:27:55
is sort of at the fringes I think the the Cold
War to to David's point started when the United
00:28:01
States basically embargoed Huawei from getting
access to 5g technology and I know that sounds
00:28:07
like a very sort of like thin thread that most
people don't understand and we can unpack it in a second but in my opinion that sort of you know
at the beginning of this year was when I started
00:28:17
to pay attention and try to understand this issue
more because it seemed like wow that's a that's
00:28:22
a shot across the bow and declaring China as the
clear you know sort of a clear and present danger
00:28:27
for American sovereignty and the NBA tik-tok
being cultural ramifications of that and which
00:28:33
are differences he talks irrelevant who cares
well it's it's is it in tax well what tick-tock
00:28:39
and all we have in common is that the the sort of
proxy battles of Cold War - will be fought between
00:28:48
these sort of client corporations whereas you know
Cold War one you have these you know sort of these proxy these sort of client states fighting these
proxy wars cold war - you have more of these like
00:28:59
client corporations fighting these proxy wars
so you know it's that's the sense in which I
00:29:07
think they're they're related the what tick tock
shows is a company that's desperately trying to
00:29:14
maneuver so they don't become one of the first
economic casualties of cold war - they appointed
00:29:20
a American as CEO they've pulled out of Hong Kong
so they're not subject to to those regulations and
00:29:29
they're desperately maneuvering so they don't get
banned in the United States they want to preserve their market access but I think there's a very
good chance that they will get shut down in the
00:29:39
u.s. they've been shut down in India and today's
July the 10th and right before we went on the
00:29:45
breaking news was at Amazon basically asked all
their employees delete to delete tik-tok because
00:29:50
of a security threat so it's happening I think
that tick-tock unless they basically have bike
00:29:56
dance cell under 20 or 30% of the company and
get it into the hands of Americans it will get
00:30:03
banned and I think that there will be a massive
destruction in enterprise value book can I tell you why tick-tock doesn't matter and or doesn't
matter as much I think David you're right that
00:30:11
it's sort of like collateral damage it it almost
is like you know it'll exist but whatever the
00:30:18
Huawei thing in my opinion is so important because
it shines a light on two things the first is that
00:30:24
you know what happened essentially as the United
States told tsmc you know you cannot basically
00:30:30
give Huawei access to the 5g chipsets and the 5g
technology that they would use to essentially kind
00:30:36
of like you know implement their spyware and then
sell it into Western nations effectively and so
00:30:42
then what what it does is it puts China in the
posture of having to figure out how do they get access to this stuff and you know the most obvious
answer is to invade Taiwan and take over tsmc and
00:30:53
you know why would they do that well obviously
that has huge geopolitical ramifications but they could only do that again going back to the
first comment is because they've already bought
00:31:01
so many nation states into their productivity
bloc that it's still on a balance a worthwhile
00:31:07
trade and it allows them to solve their version of
Taiwanese sovereignty completely and definitively
00:31:15
and basically say look we've we've now solved
Hongkong you know Macau is already solved and
00:31:20
now we're gonna solve Taiwan and put the whole
thing to bed and now we have access to this critical technology that we need so that's why I
think sort of like what happens with Huawei sort
00:31:30
of what happens with TSM see what happens on 5g
is so important because if you're going to force
00:31:35
China you know to basically have to buy Western
technology in order to get access to a critical
00:31:41
piece of you know Internet infrastructure they're
gonna be put to a very very difficult test about
00:31:47
what they have to do and then they will have
to be much more transparent on the global stage
00:31:53
about what their ambitions really are and how far
they're willing to go and I think that's you know
00:31:59
that's a lot more important than you know a bunch
of kids dancing to short videos well and and just
00:32:05
just to add to that point you know so I think your
mouth is right that these these sort of chips the
00:32:12
5g chips these other chips are that they're the
new oil you know in terms of their geopolitical
00:32:17
significance you know obviously all of our
technology or our iPhones are advanced event
00:32:24
weaponry it's all based on these these chips and
and 70% of them are fabricated in Taiwan and and I
00:32:35
think you know what one of the huge blind spots
of American trade policy over the last thirty
00:32:41
years is is kind of not to notice that that this
key technology that's really the substrate for
00:32:49
all of our technology for our economy has now been
many it's now been moved and it's manufactured you
00:32:58
know in Taiwan whose sovereignty China does not
recognize and it's constantly you know threatening
00:33:05
with the risk of being of being annexed so you
know we have a tremendous vulnerability there
00:33:11
and you know at the same you know II finally
after about 40 or 50 years of declaring that
00:33:17
we'd be energy-independent we've achieved that
but now we have this new dependency on these
00:33:22
chips that and Pharma and manufacturer I mean
and we and we it seems like now manufacturing
00:33:29
we're starting to realize hey Elon was right
we need to be able to build our own factories and guess what American spirit American ingenuity
American focus American capitalism we can do it we
00:33:41
have the wherewithal to do it there's no reason we
cannot make these chips here sorry I don't buy it that we're we're gonna be this dependent forever
we just need to have the will and the leadership
00:33:52
to say we're going to do this whether it costs
us an extra 50 cents per chip and well the fact
00:33:58
the fabrication of these chips is incredibly
complicated I mean they're they're basically
00:34:05
so let's buy the companies they're microscopic
yeah and it takes years and like several years
00:34:10
to set up the you know the facility to do this
kind of fun why don't we buy those companies now
00:34:16
why don't we just take it just Ramat spoink which
was very clear which is hey this is an economic
00:34:21
this is a ledger this is you know a cheque writing
exercise to win this war why don't we take out our
00:34:29
checkbook and buy fifty percent of these companies
now and put them on the Nasdaq if they're not already there it requires real leadership at
the end of the day it needs to be led by the
00:34:40
United States government the reality is that you
know lithography has gotten so advanced I mean
00:34:46
like look I have you know companies that are you
know taping out chips at like seven nanometer and
00:34:51
I don't I don't have supply or diversity I don't
know I can't basically choose you know nine folks
00:34:58
to bid it out against of which you know five are
domestically in the United States there are two right and so you know you kind of just deal with
the complexity or the lack of diversity that we
00:35:07
have and Jason your point is exactly right which
is the first and most important decision here
00:35:13
is one that's philosophical which is again saying
that era of efficiency at the sake of all else is
00:35:20
over and we are now moving to an era of resilience
which inherently is more inefficient but in that
00:35:28
inefficiency we will rebuild American prosperity
because it rebuilds American industry and it
00:35:34
rebuilds American jobs there's another example
that I want to build on David's point which is let's all believe and a test that we all care
about climate change for a second and we all want
00:35:45
the world to be electrified okay well electricity
and electrification requires two very very basic
00:35:55
inputs okay one is a battery and the second is an
electric motor right make sense so far yep well
00:36:03
inside an electric motor there is one critical
thing that you need to make it work which is a
00:36:10
permanent magnet the permanent magnet spins around
and that's how an electric motor works okay why
00:36:16
is that important as it turns out that permanent
magnets need special characteristics that are only
00:36:24
provided by a handful of very very specific rare
earth materials that we need to mine out of the
00:36:31
ground and refine those materials actually exist
in many places including the United States yeah
00:36:37
we stopped mining for them but right now China
controls 80% of the supply of rare earths they can
00:36:44
choose how they price it they can differentially
price to their own companies which means that the battery and engine manufacturers inside of China
can now lead on electrification which means China
00:36:55
can actually lead on climate change before the
United States can unless we have leadership that
00:37:01
says at a governmental level on down we are
gonna make this a priority we're gonna fund it we're gonna make sure that their onshore mines
we're gonna make sure that those mines are clean
00:37:10
we're gonna build a supply chain domestically and
we're gonna subsidize this is what governments do best it's not Act it's just incentivize on things
like climate so I don't know Freiburg has spent
00:37:21
a lot of time on climate change so he has a PS
probably a lot of ideas on this but whenever you look at any of these things health climate food it
all comes down to the United States versus China
00:37:31
Strada versus tactics Freebird look I'm not sure
I'm not sure I think that the Chinese action is as
00:37:42
deterministic as we think it is or as we kind
of frame it where it's China's got this grand
00:37:47
plan they're gonna beat the US and they're gonna
control things and make decisions that that hurt
00:37:52
us I think a lot of this is China if you think
about it less of that black and white there's a
00:37:58
continuum and the continuum is one of influence
and one of creating an environment whereby these
00:38:03
things can happen so China for example made
capital readily available for the agriculture
00:38:11
industry to be able to buy buy assets and so the
companies inside of China which aren't controlled
00:38:18
the Chinese government isn't telling them what
to do the Chinese government has set a policy that enables them to increase their prosperity
and as a result increase the prosperity of the
00:38:28
Chinese people you know when I was at Monsanto
we were we'd bid for the largest AG chemicals
00:38:34
company in the world based out of Switzerland it's
called Syngenta and we bid like forty four billion dollars to buy this company and the largest
chemical company in China called CEM China bid
00:38:45
47 billion dollars and acquired the business and
they now own the largest add chemicals company in
00:38:50
the world China also bought Smithfield and they
bought they put a bunch of people in Canada hey free bird how much of that money do you think came
from the CCP and and what involvement you think
00:38:59
the CCP had in putting their thumb on the scale of
making sure that transaction went that direction look I mean ultimately wherever the the capital
comes from it's no less equivalent than what you
00:39:10
would see in the United States where Treasuries
fund the central bank which funds banks which fund
00:39:16
lending to corporations which ultimately make
but do you think the leadership said hey we're
00:39:21
winning this at all costs so here's what happened
in 2007 there was a CCP internal doctrine that was
00:39:28
published and it's now reasonably well known and
there was a speech that was given that started this aggressive action in agriculture and as a
result Chinese citizens started moving to Canada
00:39:38
and buying farmland in Canada they started moving
Australia buying farmland in China they started building these facilities in Argentina and Brazil
and Africa and the Chinese government set out you
00:39:47
know a strategic objective and provided the
capital and enabled industry and people to go
00:39:53
after pursuing these interests but the CCP didn't
say here's the roadmap it's not like here's the specific plan for what we need to do they had a
general high-level kind of point of view that I
00:40:02
think drove all that action and all that behavior
and so you know it's I would say it's it's not as
00:40:07
perhaps coercive as we might think it is in terms
of the CCP wanting to target and attack us they're
00:40:13
trying to increase their influence around the
world they're kind of increased their own security and increase their own prosperity and at some
point there's only so many resources globally
00:40:21
there's only so much land so much magnets that
you know they and they're winning in the markets
00:40:26
and you know we're kind of crossing that threshold
now where they're actually like a competitor you
00:40:31
know the only difference between this is and
it couldn't be my point is I just don't want to frame it as like I just think it's a it's a
misstatement to frame it as China has this grand
00:40:41
plan to come after the US and they're evil and
that's what they're doing I mean you know this is where I think they're completely wrong David
respectfully yeah in that I believe this is an
00:40:50
ideological war and if you you can't diminish
what's happening in Hollywood tik-tok and the NBA
00:40:59
and other sports where China is explicitly saying
if you put a villain in our in a movie if you talk
00:41:06
about Tibet in a movie we are going to not play
that movie and we're going to start funding your
00:41:11
movies and so they are absolutely using the vector
of culture and chamalla I think you're also wrong
00:41:17
here where you're saying tick-tocks not important
tick tock is something that a generation of kids absolutely are in love with and those kids are
like hey boomers stay out of our platform and so
00:41:29
and in the ideological issue here Freebird which
I think that you're under playing is they want
00:41:36
to win and they want to spread their ideology
which is the ideology of authoritarianism they
00:41:44
are not going to win Africa and then suddenly
say you know what would be great for Africa if
00:41:49
we made the entire continent democracies that's
not in their best interest how's it different
00:41:54
than Trump tweeting well Freiberg I think that
it's it's inconceivable to me that the Chinese
00:42:02
when they do this grandiose planning and they
do that you know the political theater of having the thousands of people in the Chinese you know
assembly hall once a year that you know in GG bing
00:42:11
talks that they haven't developed a multi-faceted
multi-layered plan that they're executing in part
00:42:18
I think this is why is using ping essentially
wants to be this ruler for life inside of China because he I think they have a 20 or 30 year plan
and I do think it is to disrupt the United States
00:42:30
and I don't think that they believe though which
is the smart thing that there's one silver bullet I just think that they're gonna take a thousand
shots on goal whether it's you know monopolizing
00:42:39
the rare earths or you know figuring out how
to basically put spying software in the hands
00:42:45
of millions of Americans that's where I think tick
tock is actually really important it's essentially a vehicle to spy and backdoor into Americans or
whether it's you know introducing a digital yuan
00:42:56
so that we can try to disrupt the you know the the
use of the US dollar as a reserve currency of the
00:43:01
world they probably have a list of a thousand
tactics and they're gonna go and execute them and I don't begrudge them that I just think it's
it's it's well-organized machine I just think we
00:43:12
now need to counterpunch sacks yeah I mean so
China is on a mission of national greatness I
00:43:20
think the immediate goal is to is to assert its
hegemony over Asia and to kick the u.s. out of
00:43:27
that region but I think ultimately now they see
in their sights potentially being the number one
00:43:33
country in the entire world because of the because
of the chaos that kovat has wrought over here I
00:43:40
think and in fairness David the incompetence of
Trump thus far I mean like you know it's it's not
00:43:45
fair to think that the Chinese Politburo versus
Trump and his cabinet are an equal match forget
00:43:50
their political persuasion yeah I mean they
clearly seem emboldened and you know just in the last few weeks and months we've seen the
ending of the two systems and Hong Kong which
00:44:00
was a 50 year commitment they made and I think
the 1984 so they abrogated on that well it's a
00:44:08
commitment that yeah you having to do that three
or four months before our Trump is looking like
00:44:14
he's not gonna be in office so talking about shots
on goal this may be their only shot to do this and
00:44:20
well there's the whole want yeah but just do they
go after Taiwan in the next hundred have a window
00:44:25
I think we have to be extremely clear that Taiwan
is a red line for us and that we're committed to
00:44:31
the security of Taiwan because if we show any
hesitation or weakness there they will they will
00:44:36
seize on that and would try to do that would Trump
put his foot down because he did nothing when it
00:44:41
came to supporting I think we need to attract
away from any given President of the United States because they they change every four or
eight years and I think we need to have a bigger
00:44:50
discussion which is like I said over the next 40
to 50 years are we comfortable with do all duopoly
00:44:56
power structure in the world which is the United
States and China because that's effectively what we are today or are we the shining city on a hill
once again and if so what are we willing to do to
00:45:06
make sure that that's the case and I think that's
independent of your political persuasion in your party right well the good news here is that both
Trump and Biden are basically racing to sort of
00:45:18
position themselves as the more hawkish candidate
on China which is to say that this recognition of
00:45:24
Cold War 2 is now I think bipartisan which if
you want to sustain a policy in this country
00:45:30
over say 40 years like we did in containing the
Soviet Union you have to have bipartisan support
00:45:36
for that and so it does seem like finally as a
country I think we are kind of getting our act
00:45:41
together on China I mean obviously there will
be disagreements within that larger context but
00:45:48
it seems like now people are waking up to the
threat that that china represents to you know
00:45:56
to America being that I'm one country in the world
and I think yeah by the way I agree with I agree
00:46:02
with Sachs I mean I think that's exactly what's
happening and and what will happen here and and
00:46:10
it'll certainly it'll be a big hill to climb I'll
just highlight and I'll ask the question of chima
00:46:15
you know per his point earlier let me ask you guys
how many factories do you think exist in China
00:46:21
take a guess 11 million to point eight million
now how many do you think exist in the United
00:46:28
States 150,000 close back to Norfolk 2000 and has
about 83 million factory workers and we have about
00:46:35
12 so you know ch amok if we do end up in Cold
War 2 where you know we escalate the tension and
00:46:44
escalate the divide how do we end up you know
having avoiding $2,000 $3,000 iPhones how do we
00:46:52
get all the televisions we want for 500 bucks how
do we do that given that you know to catch up with
00:46:58
this production capacity will end up costing many
tens of trillions of dollars of invested capital
00:47:04
that China has invested over decades well this
is such a brilliant this is a somewhat fabulous question and I think I don't have the answer but
here's the way that I think about the solution
00:47:12
you know the the thing that we had before was
in my way in many ways like this kind of like
00:47:18
perverted sense of globalism and I think that
we we you know we thought that globalism equals
00:47:24
utopia and that's not true it's actually more
like a chessboard which means you have you know
00:47:30
two different sets of colored pieces competing
against each other and each piece on the board
00:47:35
in many ways as a country so you know we can look
at that as a Geographic skew and say like we need
00:47:40
to really consolidate you know North Central and
South America has a block as a productivity block
00:47:47
and so David that's where we need to have more
trade within those areas so that we can actually
00:47:52
build up production capacity in places that can
absorb and produce low-cost labor or low-cost
00:47:58
items to compete with to china bloc that may be
a solution I mean that is an incredible point
00:48:04
Chamath which is why with the rhetoric with Mexico
which would love relationship with us is so so
00:48:12
dumb we're talking about factories they would love
for us to put more factories on there and whatever country is good for this work our way down the
peninsula yeah go to go down the peninsula go
00:48:23
go to Honduras go to El Salvador go to Guatemala
where your weii paralyzed they won't work yeah are
00:48:29
screaming for work which is why they're trying
to enter the United States the best ways to not build a wall take all that money and fuel it
into production and manufacturing and warehouse
00:48:40
in those places in which they're leaving in the
first place and if we thought like China we would
00:48:45
go ahead do it Freiburg sorry no you can't
successfully sustain a cold war with China without global partnership and I think you know
this notion of nationalism and isolationism in
00:48:57
the United States will not work in a world where
we are also trying to compete globally with China
00:49:04
and are raising the stakes in a global cold war
you can't have it both ways so you know either
00:49:10
the the current administration policy needs to
change I'd love to hear Sachs's point of view on this or you know or we need to have a change in
administration and actually you know re-engage on
00:49:19
it on a global basis with partner States well okay
so I think that the the point about about well I
00:49:28
think what what some people on the right would say
is that being able to buy cheap goods at Target is
00:49:35
not worth the hollowing out of the American
industrial base that happened over the past thirty years and that was a catastrophic mistake
and you know this is what got trump reelected was
00:49:44
shattering that that blue wall in those Rust Belt
states so I think we can kind of look back on that
00:49:51
and wonder whether that trade-off was really worth
it but moving forward I think the balance is gonna
00:49:56
be to realize that trade does create wealth you
know all wealth in fact comes from trade whether
00:50:05
at the level of individuals or nations if it
weren't for trade all of us would be subsistence farmers or something like that but we also have to
realize that trade creates interdependence because
00:50:17
I stopped making certain things in order to buy
them from you and so in order to engage in trade
00:50:22
we have to trust each other I have to trust that
that you one day won't decide that your ability
00:50:29
to manufacture antibiotics is strategic and you
might deprive me of them in order to facilitate some geopolitical interest and so I think what
we're waking up to with you know production of
00:50:40
you know pharmaceuticals or n95 masks you know
PPE and now chips is that we've had this real
00:50:49
blind spot with respect to trade we've basically
offshore so many of the elements are necessary for
00:50:55
our national survival and I think those elements
have to be brought back so that America is safe
00:51:01
and independent but with respect to you know so
many other things I think it's fine for us to get
00:51:09
them through trade whether you know it could be
a peril or toys or so many other goods that you know we do want cheap goods I want to do an only
strategic I want to do a mental exercise we all
00:51:17
for our living try to come up with 100 X 1000 X
solutions whether we're creating the companies or betting on the companies when everybody to
just think for a second of the United States
00:51:27
as a startup company and a 10x 100x idea for how
we can not only maintain our position but maybe
00:51:37
become the shining hill where we actually lead the
world towards democracy towards human rights I'm
00:51:45
going to start with the one that I just happened
to it hit me while you all were talking which is
00:51:50
why I love doing this podcast because I get such
inspiration listening to you guys you know pass the ball around we haven't added a state to the
United States in a pretty damn long time what
00:52:01
if we said to Puerto Rico what if we said to the
Dominican Republic what have we said to indoors I
00:52:06
mean and I don't want to make this into a exercise
in colonialism but if we said you know what Puerto
00:52:14
Rico how do you feel about being the 51st state
because we're already 80% of the way there and what if we said the United States is going to
and this is just a crazy hundred x idea we're
00:52:24
going to start taking countries that maybe love
democracy that would love to be part of the United
00:52:29
States and and having a bridge towards becoming
part of this block whether it's how Puerto Rico
00:52:35
is Jason the United States can barely function
as it is that's why I'm giving you the freedom
00:52:40
to say this is a hundred x exercise as a start-up
because if we put out crazy ideas like this maybe we can pull people towards thinking like the
chessboard of how to play 3d chess or how to
00:52:51
win the chessboard not just move the pawns back
and forth well I think the first thing America has to do is is decide whether it wants to whether it
still thinks that national greatness is important
00:53:03
and whether it wants to compete to to be the
leading power in the world because right now
00:53:08
it seems like we're hopelessly divided and our
guns are literally drawn on each other and you
00:53:17
know you've got this all out assault going on on
capitalism you have sort of canceled culture and
00:53:23
America just seems hopelessly divided and I don't
know if Americans still think it's important to
00:53:30
be the number one power in the world so what are
the thought experiment on how to make Americans realize this is important or if anybody else wants
to jump in here with a 10x idea of America good
00:53:39
well I I have an overlaying theory that I it this
is sort of kind of me spitballing so bear with me
00:53:46
but let's do it you know there's a there's this
concept called the Overton Window right which is sort of like the the minimum ly viable acceptable
surface area of dialogue at which case it starts
00:53:56
to sort of you know get extreme I might I would
theorize I would tell you that the Overton Window is the smallest that's ever been and there's
basically nothing that you can talk about that
00:54:06
is relatively benign without it being politicized
and and there's no gradation anymore it's a very
00:54:13
binary thing you're either in the Overton
Window which for example would be like you know vegetables matter or looking both ways across
the street matters and outside the Overton Window
00:54:25
honestly is black lives matter as an example you
know and it gets politicized on both sides masks
00:54:32
you know if a balaclava when you're skiing because
your face is cold is inside the Overton Window
00:54:37
that same balaclava when you go to the drug store
so that you can actually you know either prevent
00:54:43
disease one way or the other is outside the
Overton Window you know making sure that police
00:54:49
you know are there to protect you in a time of
need is now outside the Overton Window because
00:54:57
it's framed in in the lens of police brutality
so the Overton Window has shrunk so we we have
00:55:03
very little surface area where we can actually all
agree without getting into a fight Heidi like each
00:55:08
other I totally agree with that I mean we have
this we have this sort of epidemic of cancel culture going on and I guess Jason you recently
experienced this oh my lord I mean for the love of
00:55:18
God what happened Jason tell us what happened
listen I I look at Twitter as a place to have
00:55:25
vibrant discussions and you know ten years ago it
was kind of where the Overton Window was most open
00:55:31
you could have a discussion about anything and we
had a discussion about you know my feeling that as
00:55:38
a former journalist and we're doing random acts of
journalism here that I just thought the New York Times was just way too biased and that they picked
aside in order for their business to survive and I
00:55:49
actually believe that I believe they picked the
side of Trump I'm sorry the side of anti Trump in order to get subscriptions because their
advertising business has been demolished by
00:55:59
the duopoly of Facebook and Google this led to the
circling of the wagons of the journalists which I
00:56:07
was part of but listen it's pretty easy to hate me
I understand that I'm a loudmouth and so now I'm
00:56:12
getting piled on by the journal and and you were
an early investor in who absolutely forget that let's forget I think that a third or fourth I they
tell me the third or fourth anything so there's a
00:56:25
journalist at said publication I'm not going to
say her name because I don't want any harassment of anybody nobody does who said people are stupid
for going back to work and they're idiots and I
00:56:39
said you know this is a very convenient thing
for a journalist who works behind a keyboard who makes $100,000 a year to say because those people
are literally not going to be able to feed their
00:56:50
kids if they don't go back to work and this led to
her saying I was harassing and stalking her then I
00:56:57
was in Clubhouse the new social network where you
talk and the same journalist was in the audience
00:57:03
and I said to the people who were talking just
be aware there is a journalist in the audience because even though this is a private beta this
could wind up being in the New York Times which it
00:57:14
did not that discussion but another one that was
covertly taped and I don't know it was covertly taped by journalists or not but it did wind up
in the press anyway this whole thing turns into a
00:57:25
giant fight and table house sounds like some dark
S&M sex club in Berlin Hey no no that's here's
00:57:33
what I think is most entertaining house H la us
house club house yeah let me what I think it's
00:57:40
most entertaining about this is that the the New
York Times journalist was in this vicious battle
00:57:47
with Balaji who's a Silicon Valley founder and
personality and they were arguing and then Jason
00:57:52
somehow comes running over and starts involving
himself in this feud and it's like and it's like
00:58:01
Balaji gets fouled but Jason takes the flop you
know and all of a sudden then all of a sudden Jason's talking about you know how he's getting
Doc's ball geez the guy who is like called out in
00:58:09
the New York Times but somehow Jason Jason takes
the flop but anyway so here's what's happened
00:58:15
I'm only telling the story I'm not trying to get
victim points give a [ __ ] about that it's July
00:58:22
4th I think I put the kids down for the nap we you
know stakes are going on the grills [ __ ] great
00:58:29
day and then I'm on the peloton trying to be just
a little less fat so I can be less fat than Saks
00:58:36
so that the photo that we're Sachs is using I
just come out 5 percent less fat than Saks and
00:58:42
I look and I had posted a picture of the tree line
outside my house two of the beautiful blueSky on
00:58:49
July 4th and I said listen everybody take a break
from Twitter go spend time with your family which is what I was about to do a 37-year a private
equity douche from Boston does a reverse image
00:59:02
search on the tree line finds a bigger picture
of the trees finds a picture of my pool based on
00:59:07
that bigger picture in Google reverse image search
and all these other tools and then DOCSIS me which basically means releasing your address he releases
my address in my thread where ok because so i DM
00:59:21
him and he's using his real name and he's got a
LinkedIn profile and I said do you realize how
00:59:27
dangerous this is he goes well you're stalking
said journalists I said I am not stalking the
00:59:32
journalist was she said you're stalking her so if
you apologized to her and you take down the mean stuff you said about horror I'll take down your
home address and I said a [ __ ] this is illegal
00:59:42
number one and number two you gonna lose your
Twitter account and then I said number three we're
00:59:49
connected your boss because you have a you're
using your public name your boss is connected
00:59:55
to 14 people of which like half are very close
friends of mine and I'm calling your boss and I
01:00:04
have all these screenshots of you doc see me what
do you think is gonna happen on Monday and I just gave him my phone number in this weakness sick
to your face okay let me just finish the story I
01:00:15
tell the guy here's my phone number he calls me I
said hey I know that you're a kid I know that you
01:00:21
did something rash but this is actually you know a
kind of a dangerous thing because you know there's serious mental illness in whatever point 1 percent
of the population there's millions of people in
01:00:29
now involved in this discussion it could be a
security concern for me I'm not gonna post your address please don't post mine delete the tweet he
was I refused to delete a tree until you whatever
01:00:38
and I said okay well I'm gonna call your boss on
Monday we know these people in common she's going
01:00:44
to fire you and you're gonna lose your job now I
know you're only 23 or 24 and this doesn't matter to you and he goes uh I said how old are you said
37 I said you're 37 year olds are you married you
01:00:54
said yeah I'm married I got a six-year-old they
said now you want me to make you lose your job because you're so mad at me over nothing I said
I don't want to call your boss on Monday and and
01:01:04
tell them what you did because it will certainly
result in you being fired and he goes oh I said
01:01:10
you might want to go talk to your spouse about
what you did and maybe get her perspective she
01:01:15
writes me an apology letter we deleted it's all
water under the bridge but I've been trying to tell people you have to be very careful when
this gets too personal because there are your
01:01:25
dog whistling two crazy people who then might do
something crazy anyway end of story I backed off
01:01:30
the whole discussion because I just don't want to
I want to finish my second book and I want to do podcast with guys like you and have a great time
with my life and not be involved with a bunch of
01:01:39
idiots and if so I want to go back to this Overton
Window concept for a second so again just my idea
01:01:47
so you take the word matters the word matters is
in the Overton Window nobody can argue that the
01:01:53
word matters is offensive if you if you prepend
that word with vegetables it stays in the over
01:01:59
too window if you put looking both ways before
you cross the street now cash we're still there
01:02:05
going over to window if you say black lives as a
term just without the word matters that's probably
01:02:11
in the Overton Window sure you put black lives
matters it's out the Overton Window and both sides
01:02:16
politicized I think the left politicizes with
this cancel culture and basically like an extreme
01:02:24
form of political correctness and then the right
politicizes by you know in in their way a vein of
01:02:30
hypersensitivity and then a doubling down on this
notion of an attacking of individual freedoms and
01:02:36
free speech and in all of that both of these two
groups miss the fact that they're both sort of the
01:02:43
same and they they're they're wronged in the same
way but they're both not listening in the same
01:02:48
way right so if I have to put something in the
Overton Window that would address the us-china
01:02:54
Cold War thing here's what I would say we all need
energy we all need food and we all need technology
01:03:01
right we need to sort of warm our houses we need
to feed our bellies and we need to be able to be
01:03:06
productive in some way so that we can make money
and I think that everybody in the United States
01:03:13
can agree that on these three dimensions there are
some really simple things that we could do that
01:03:20
basically double down on us sovereignty and allow
us to basically be more on the offensive so I'll
01:03:27
give you a couple of ideas on the energy side is
we need to continue to support energy independence
01:03:35
and that will require subsidies and the reason
why that's important in my opinion is that then
01:03:41
what happens is it hastens and accelerates Russia
and the Middle East not becoming relevant anymore
01:03:50
because they are forced to monetize their oil
sooner the Middle East probably disintegrates into
01:03:57
30 countries you know the Middle East was just a
kind of a random exercise of you know basically
01:04:03
Americans and Europeans after the war divvying up
a bunch of things it has no sensitivity to culture
01:04:08
or language or anything so that probably you know
- in a very different direction and Russia itself
01:04:15
and Russia becomes less important because they
just have to monetize otherwise they will lose their only source of revenue so that's one thing
on energy that I think we could do that I think is
01:04:24
relatively politically acceptable and inside the
Overton Window second is on food which is that
01:04:31
we have to double down on creating a completely
independent food supply inside the United States
01:04:37
and there are ways again where if we don't need
to be building tanks and having 90 trillion
01:04:43
dollar programs for aircraft carriers anymore we
could pour that money into US farms you know and
01:04:49
give people like Friedberg a lot more money to go
and actually make sure the united states has food security that in any situation and scenario we
can feed the three hundred and thirty-odd million
01:05:00
people inside of our borders and then the for the
the third thing is on technology which is there
01:05:06
are a critical bunch of inputs whether it's 5g
chips rare earth materials or minerals things like
01:05:14
cobalt and lithium which we need for batteries
for climate change that we can go and basically
01:05:20
co-opt because those things are concentrated in
countries like Chile in places like in places like
01:05:26
Africa where we can actually do a better job of
instilling government governance and security so
01:05:34
that's my Jason back to your thing these aren't
sexy ideas but they would work and I think they would work by both Republicans and Democrats and
it's non-controversial I'll even put punch up the
01:05:44
food part there's no reason why you know the same
way we made water and public schools you know kind
01:05:52
of a given in the United States nobody really has
to worry about going getting water nobody has to worry about getting a basic education learning
to read let's say it's not perfect obviously
01:06:01
why not make healthy produce and some amount of
healthy food so affordable in the United States
01:06:08
that it's essentially free right and then you
think about food security like how are we still
01:06:16
discussing food security with the amount of money
and prosperity we have in this country make it free we've we've almost made energy free we have
energy independence I'll say a Manhattan Project
01:06:26
to make energy and food as free or de minimus
as water would be just an amazing thing for us
01:06:33
to rally around because then people can work on
the next thing in their life their careers their family their pursuits Freiburg what do you think
of the Overton Window and would you add something
01:06:42
to it that we can all agree on that we could work
on together and maybe unify the country as opposed to pulling guns on each other in the parking lots
because of the color of our skin I'm reminded of
01:06:52
a great moment in history when Will Smith and his
friends blew up the UFO that came to attack Earth
01:07:00
nothing brings us together like a common enemy
so it could be that the unification is gonna be
01:07:08
you know in part driven by this cold war - and
creating a common enemy in China it's gonna work
01:07:15
for both the right on the left and create a lot of
opportunity of jama' highlights and manufacturing and food production as there's a lot of tools
available to us I think we could all sit here
01:07:23
and speculate and I could pitch and plug all the
companies I'm involved in I think are gonna play a role but I do think it's it's that moment where
you know we are gonna coalesce around a common
01:07:34
enemy and well I would be good if you actually
shared one or two of those projects you're working on if you can actually we think well I mean I
think here what you're working I've shared this
01:07:43
before but I do think biomanufacturing which is
that the technology whereby we engineer the DNA
01:07:51
of microbes and those microbes then make molecules
for us in a big fermentation tank in the same way
01:07:57
that we make beer or wine biomanufacturing can be
used to make flavors and fragrances and now we're
01:08:03
making materials like silks and plastics plastic
equivalents and and more interestingly proteins
01:08:09
for human consumption to replace animal proteins
and the cost of production and the cost of energy
01:08:15
associated with making these materials these
molecules these proteins through bio manufacturing is literally several orders of magnitude less than
the traditional technique which is just insane if
01:08:26
you think about it in first principles basis of
growing [ __ ] corn feeding it to a cow letting
01:08:31
the cow grow up feeding it hundreds of gallons
of water killing it chopping it up transporting it to a restaurant I mean the amount of energy
that goes into making a pound of ground beef is
01:08:39
insane and the the greenhouse gas emissions and
so on so I do believe that there is a big wave of
01:08:45
bio manufacturing as an industry that is coming
on the US this century and it will hopefully by
01:08:50
the end of the century be the primary way that
we're kind of producing a lot of the molecules that we consume and that we use for clothing and
materials so then that does what to factories
01:08:59
because you know you did explain earlier they a
number of factories if we can bio produce that's
01:09:04
right only our steaks not only our corn so I
mean we could bio manufacture steel plastics
01:09:11
cars not so much steel but alternatives to leather
alternatives to cloth alternatives to so close to
01:09:18
clothes food so imagine instead of a traditional
factory think about a factory historically being
01:09:23
purpose-built so you build all these components
to make one thing cement all this money making a
01:09:28
giant machine that you put stuff in on one end
and the same thing comes out over and over the other end and that's classic industrial revolution
1.0 and you know 20 century industrial revolution
01:09:38
output in this century we are gonna build these
giant printers they're not going to be single form
01:09:45
machines that make one thing over and over they're
gonna be systems that are giant fermentation tanks
01:09:50
and in those fermentation tanks it's like you
program them with software and the software in this case is genetic software you edit the genome
of these organisms they take stuff on the input
01:09:59
and they make on the output a bunch of different
stuff a replicator like in Star Trek and if there
01:10:05
was seasonality and people needed something over
the summer for July 4th versus what they need in
01:10:10
Christmas or in the winter and ski season the
same factory makes that thing where 10 20 30
01:10:16
40 50 years from this having an impact on the
economy yes and we're seeing it now I mean look the number of artificial animal protein companies
and the funding that they're getting its I think
01:10:27
highlighting investor interest and appetite in
backing the capex needed to get this to become a reality right now perfect day just raised 300
million dollars this week impossible foods rates
01:10:37
forty million dollars from the Qatar Investment
Authority you know obviously beyond meat is where they're I mean these companies are using
these techniques of genetic engineering to make
01:10:48
microbes that make the proteins and the flavorings
liquid 50 we put five hundred million into the PPP
01:10:55
if we put 500 I'm sorry 500 billion and put 500
billion into this how much would it accelerate
01:11:00
it pretty substantially and I think it goes from
food to Pharma to materials and that's probably
01:11:07
you know where you would see the be impact but
again one system can make different materials
01:11:13
can make different so we could be independent
of other countries for food to Chalmers point and also Pharma which we are way to depend in
correct on China yeah we're definitely a net
01:11:23
exporter by the way you know our largest export
partner is China so most of our soybeans in the
01:11:28
United States that we produce and soybeans
are grown on 160 million acres on the US and
01:11:33
it rotates half-and-half each year with corn but
about two-thirds of our soybeans historically get exported to China so we are already food secured
from a net resource perspective it's just the rest
01:11:44
of the infrastructure in terms of turning that
stuff in the meat and other stuff is where we're you know we probably have to build up a little bit
in transmittance sacks let's swing the ball over
01:11:52
to you when you hear the Overton Window idea is
when you hear about this bio chemistry slurry tank
01:11:59
revolution that Freebirds working on how does that
change or evolve your view of our relationship
01:12:07
with China and the political mess we're in
right now in 2020 yeah well I think Cold War 2 does provide a lens to rethink and reevaluate a
lot of these domestic political fights and so for
01:12:20
example are the big technology companies you know
Google Facebook and so on are they these you know
01:12:27
even when ah police that need to be broken up or
are they the crown jewels of the American economy
01:12:32
that needs to be protected from Chinese espionage
you know is the free enterprise system this you
01:12:39
know horribly you know oppressive racist thing
or is it actually the engine of prosperity that's
01:12:47
built this country you know is freedom of speech
an outdated principle or is it something we we
01:12:55
want to you know that that should be canceled or
is it something we want to fight for and I think that you know when you start thinking about these
issues you know in the you know through the lens
01:13:04
of Cold War 2 it provides an opportunity to kind
of re-evaluate them and think about what's really and and hopefully it can provide a little bit of
a Unova unifying force in America not because we
01:13:17
want China to be an enemy but just because we
want to maintain a sense of national greatness
01:13:23
and I you know it's not something I just want to
give up on I have a question for Friedberg are our
01:13:31
schools gonna be back in the fall because I cannot
deal with my kids being at home yeah I think it's
01:13:37
gonna be a mixed bag it seems like I mean if
you follow this this is a political decision right it's not a scientific decision and so there
are different politics around nationally that are
01:13:49
affecting this and there are some schools that
seem like they've got processes and methods of
01:13:55
being comfortable some of them were just throwing
everything out the window and say I don't give a [ __ ] if the kids got to go back to school and
some of them who are being very conservative
01:14:01
and saying you know we're not ready for that we
can't take the risk so you'll definitely see a mixed bag I don't know where you're living Jamaa
I don't know what's gonna happen per se but it's
01:14:10
definitely a local apology Friedberg is it safe to
send our kids back to a 10-person pod in a school
01:14:17
in California I mean that's like asking if it's
safe to cross a train track you know you can look
01:14:22
left you can look right but yeah you're crying
you know a busy train intersection during during
01:14:27
rush hour right you know it's hard to say what
level of safe is safe we know that kids are less
01:14:36
susceptible to any sort of health risk themselves
from the virus and it looks like there's a lot of studies showing that they're likely less the virus
is less transmissible through kids especially kids
01:14:46
under the age of 14 and so it seems like there's
there's some theories that say that look it's
01:14:52
these h2 receptors whereby the virus enters the
cells really start to present when you turn 10
01:14:57
years old at a greater rate and you know it scales
up to 14 and above 14 you're kind of an adult from
01:15:03
an h2 receptor point of view and then there's the
severity of the infection as we all know is really
01:15:09
more of a significant issue for much elderly
people so when you take those factors into account the virus is likely less transmissible
amongst children therefore a bunch of kids get
01:15:19
together they're not going to transmit it to each
other and and it's likely going to be less severe even if there is an infection for kids the risk is
just about are the teachers comfortable and what
01:15:28
happens when they go home and there have been a
number of letters that you guys have probably seen op-eds and whatnot written in papers by teachers
saying I'm nervous to go back to school I don't
01:15:37
want to teach this fall I don't want to take
the risk for my health I take care of my mom or my dad or what have you and so there's a lot of
competing interests let's go let's go around the
01:15:46
horn of who's sending their kids back to school
I'll start I posted on Calacanis comm yesterday that we've decided as a family that we're starting
a micro school we put out a call for a teacher and
01:15:58
you know just looking at teacher salaries they
don't get paid particularly well in our society
01:16:03
as we all know they're underpaid so we think we
can come over the top and provide a you know a better financial arrangement for a teacher and
then have one to five students and we're going to
01:16:14
just create a micro school that's hard that's our
current plan our kids did go to camp this summer
01:16:20
in a small ten person or less pod and we felt
that was safe everybody was tested and it was
01:16:27
outdoors but for me being indoors at a school with
300 pods of 10 and I think the best teachers are
01:16:35
not going to show up and are my kids don't learn
over Xoom I don't know about your kids but it's not working so we're starting a or we're gonna
roll our own school and hopefully find one or two
01:16:44
families who want to chop up the cost with us or
we'll we'll just pick up the tab and invite one or two families if they don't have the means to do it
but what we're gonna we're going to go solo for 20
01:16:54
21 free burger mouths what do you thinking right
now because we're only seven eight weeks out from this right we're less than two months I really
think like look not everybody Jason is going to
01:17:04
be in a position to hire teachers in fact most
everybody won't be agree I think it's I want to
01:17:10
send my children back to school I refuse to create
some alternative reality for them I think it's
01:17:21
really important that they are with their friends
I think that we're not really thinking strongly
01:17:26
enough about the social implications for you know
children let's just say like you know you take an
01:17:33
8 year old or an you're old or a ten-year-old and
you deprive them of their friends for a year I mean that's an enormous part of their life where
they like a prison sentence they've been socially
01:17:43
isolated you know I just think it's a really bad
outcome so I think that obviously from a public
01:17:52
health perspective we want to keep our teachers
safe I just think that it's so important that we
01:17:58
realize that you know we are going to impact
an entire generation of kids I think that if you're 18 or 19 and have had you know 18 or
19 years of normal teenage them you know and
01:18:09
and and growing up that it's okay if you miss a
year or you have to you know do your first year of college remotely like it sucks but you can deal
but I really worry about these kids in in primary
01:18:21
school and middle school it's really unfair yeah
I mean with our plan was to try to get to four or five students small bubble and then you know have
outdoor the problem is than the Northeast I just
01:18:33
got to school it's you're inside with a heating
system of the clothes ventilation scheme that was built in 1920 and I think it avoids the real key
thing which is like I don't think you go to school
01:18:44
to learn as much as you go to school to socialize
socialize I mean you learn as a by-product because
01:18:52
everybody socializes not everybody learns right
agreed and so there it's it's an enormous ly
01:18:59
important formative experience for a child to be
around 15 or 20 of their other kids and to be in
01:19:04
the playground to deal with all the adversity that
comes with normal life of a kid that's the biggest
01:19:10
thing that I think we're depriving them of and
I understand that you know there's an important
01:19:16
reason to hold these kids back but I just want to
appreciate that behaviorally and psychologically this is not gonna be for free hmm Freebird sacks
what would you know I I guess I agree with both
01:19:30
mouth and free bargain on this that the there
are huge benefits to going back and the risk
01:19:37
to kids are low in terms of getting it and also
they're less viral if they do but Israel sort
01:19:44
of a strong recent counter example where they
recently open schools and now all of a sudden they've got a spike so you know we're gonna send
our kids back but I expect it to be a little bit
01:19:55
of a [ __ ] show I think that the schools will
reopen and they'll do all this plan a there'll be all these like pods and half days and smaller
groups and that kind of thing and then somebody's
01:20:05
gonna they'll be like one case either a kid or you
know one family and then all of a sudden they're
01:20:11
gonna shut down again I guess I you know they're
spending all this time planning but I wonder if they're really gonna have contingency plans
for what happens when there's a case or yeah I
01:20:21
think they'll just shut down it's just it it's too
scary for a child to die or a teacher to die and
01:20:28
people at the overreaction to it will be to shut
everything down right and then we're gonna be back
01:20:35
to our kids when we sent our kids to camp for the
three weeks they went man it was just they were
01:20:41
different kids right and such a mots point they
did their little social animals they need to roll around like little baby tigers and and play and
if they don't have that it dramatically affects
01:20:51
behavior and we saw it in only three months I
mean 12 these kids are gonna go mental yeah I
01:20:57
think that basically where the country is at is
that we're an undeclared Sweden you know we've
01:21:03
basically that the virus has become endemic it's
everywhere you know we've basically given up on
01:21:09
trying to contain or stop it and and so now we're
just on this path to hurt immunity and you know
01:21:17
it's basically what Sweden did except we haven't
declared that's what our plan is and so it's haphazard and but it's it seems like kind of were
by default it is headed for herd immunity Freiburg
01:21:29
as we wrap up here and I got one final question I
want to do after this and then we'll wrap Freiburg
01:21:34
what's your thoughts kids in schools I know you
have kids I'm not sure the ages if they're like would be going back to it I think they're a little
bit on the younger side so if you did have eight
01:21:44
nine ten twelve year olds sending them back to
school starting your own what are your thoughts yeah I mean I'd I would probably be a little
ridiculous and send them and test them every
01:21:53
other day at home and you know you can get this
back to Dickinson test system now for 250 bucks
01:21:59
it's a handheld device and these test strips cost
20 say the name of it again the vector Dickenson
01:22:05
it's a vector with a V B BB ways that alright
are they available yeah you can buy them through
01:22:11
medical retailers and yeah the handheld device
that they use in hospitals and stuff today it's
01:22:17
2 or 50 bucks and there's a little test kit that
you buy it'll probably cost 20 to 30 bucks it'll
01:22:22
be available next month per test or 15 to 20 bucks
and it takes five minutes to get a result and so
01:22:29
you literally could do it in the school yard
before they go into the building yeah it's that you could test you I would test my kids every day
if I had a my kids or my one kids in preschool the
01:22:39
other ones do but you add I do a little pinprick
on their finger in no no if you can just do a little swap in the nose so okay yeah deep no swab
or you know halfway there's data that shows now
01:22:49
that you can actually do a throat swab and you
know get a pretty good reading on it so you know whatever the protocol is it probably me pretty
non-invasive and you can get a result now that's
01:22:57
expensive for most people you know that's not
expensive for a school not expensive for a school
01:23:03
that's right and so I think that company will do
well with that testing system they've launched because it actually tests not for the RNA but for
the protein is this a public company yeah and the
01:23:13
stocks done well and and and this test does really
well because a test for the protein not the RNA so
01:23:18
it's actually a much you know much easier test
scientifically to do you're not trying to pick
01:23:25
up specific nucleotides or nucleic acids you're
trying to pick up a protein and so it's yeah it's
01:23:32
pretty effective all right yeah if the election
was held today we always like to talk about this
01:23:38
a bit they wanted SLOS when we talked about it
we talked about Oprah last time that was our sleeper candidate I'm changing but I'm changing
our yummy Duckworth Tammy Duckworth is now my
01:23:47
sleeper vice presidential I'm with I'm with the
Tomas on that absolutely 100 now who's gonna win
01:23:55
if the election was held today Sachs I'll let you
go first since it's the most heartbreaking for you
01:24:03
Biden Biden strategy is working his strategy is
basically to say nothing to be you know tied in
01:24:09
his basement and and but it's working because
even though he's a cipher I think people he's
01:24:17
basically a protest vote against Trump and Trump
you know is you know seen as very divisive and
01:24:24
inflammatory and I think the American people at
this point just want to push a button and make
01:24:30
it stop and right now Biden seems like the make
it stop button yeah okay and should Biden I'll
01:24:38
add to the question to be a bit too will end on
this to this double question who wins today and should buy it in debate Trump or is it better for
him to just opt out of the debates and not risk
01:24:47
it buy-ins would you advise well I think buying
strategy right now I was working I don't know why he would change it I mean so he should not
there's three debates on the books he agreed to
01:24:56
should he do the three debates yes or no if you
were advising him so I think he probably will
01:25:03
not be able to to duck that these debates forever
I think I mean it seems unlikely that you know if
01:25:11
you are advising him would you tell him to do
it or not I would I think I would tell him is
01:25:17
strategy is working which is to say nothing and
don't go to the debates if you can get away with
01:25:22
it I'm not sure he'll be able to get away with
it so I think eventually people eventually the American public will turn its attention to the
election but part of part of the reason why his
01:25:31
strategy is working is because Trump is running
such a bad campaign in fact it feels like Trump
01:25:37
hasn't even really started to campaign there's
no logic to it for sure yeah well it's you know
01:25:43
normally what the incumbent does especially when
they've got a lot of money is they use this summer
01:25:48
to define the opponent they start running a
lot of ads seeking to define their opponent
01:25:54
and and you know where are those ads where is that
attempt to define Biden I mean I think it I think
01:26:01
it's hard because you know cuz it's it's hard to
define Biden as as a radical who represents these
01:26:10
woke mobs Biden doesn't even know how to say the
word woke correctly I think he's called him woke
01:26:16
so that's absolutely right by my four-year-old
who needed her diaper change right all right
01:26:24
but but the fact that Biden is so clueless and
seems like so out of touch actually helps them
01:26:29
because I mean the way the way for Trump to win
the election okay let's let's put it that way is to make the alternative to trump the destruction
of Mount Rushmore right I mean if if Trump can
01:26:43
somehow convince the American public that the
election of Joe Biden means the ripping down
01:26:48
of George Washington and Abraham Lincoln and and
Mount Rushmore and the destruction of capitalism
01:26:54
that is the way for him to win that's the you
know but he has to actually listen well yes he
01:27:03
has to actually be able to tag Biden with that why
didn't we tortilla why did Peter teal drop Trump
01:27:10
he's you've got a 30-year relationship with Peter
teal you talked to him on the regular why did teal
01:27:15
drop him I don't know that he has I think you have
to get him on the show to talk all right there you go good deflection best DC who wins and should he
do those three debates Biden yeah yeah I think you
01:27:28
can't get away from them I wouldn't make it a
big issue because the debates are gonna be kind of this random crappy kind of experience you know
I I don't even know whether they'll be in the same
01:27:39
place I think they should try to make sure that
they're not in the same place so that it's done almost over zoomed like you can you can [ __ ]
the effort the the usefulness of these debates
01:27:49
in many ways there really isn't much that can
happen in the debates the reality is that people
01:27:54
aren't voting for Biden they are voting against
Donald Trump any chance Trump wins and they are
01:28:01
voting against the sheer incompetence of him and
his family and you know it's going to be very
01:28:10
difficult for him to overturn it there is one thin
path for him to win which is to absolutely shower
01:28:19
America with money close to the election day so
if there is a Multi multi trillion dollar stimulus
01:28:26
bill that passes and it literally puts money into
the hands of working Americans especially in the
01:28:33
swing states it could work now the one thing I'll
tell you is if you looked at the exit in Georgia
01:28:39
it's scary because there were 230,000 I think more
Democrats out of the exit polls in the Georgia
01:28:47
primary than there were Republican now just hold
the phone here for a second because under no
01:28:53
calculus on electoral college did we ever have to
think that there is probabilistically any chance
01:28:59
that a Democrat wins Georgia and I think what this
speaks to is a changing demographic longitudinally
01:29:07
and this is not a racial thing meaning this is
an age thing where these young people are very
01:29:13
different politically and so if you think that
there is an even remote chance that Donald Trump
01:29:21
loses Georgia don't even worry about Minnesota
and Pennsylvania and Florida because he would have
01:29:29
already lost those in order to lose George also
this pandemic and work from home is gonna result
01:29:35
in people if it is a sustained work for me we have
scarred the American economy guys and we don't
01:29:41
reduce our extent of the injury because you know
you know the extent of the injury when you get you
01:29:47
know step out of the chair that first moment the
cast gets taken off and you put a little pressure
01:29:52
on the leg to see how bad it is and we don't know
how bad it is except we know that it's pretty bad
01:29:58
so you know I think that all roads kind of
look like Biden I think the very narrow path
01:30:06
that Donald Trump has is you know a Multi multi
trillion dollar stimulus built directly into the
01:30:12
hands of Americans Freiberg is he gonna win yes
or no should he do the debates yes or no if the
01:30:18
vote were to happen today he would win Joe Biden
would win I think he's actually more likely to
01:30:24
win based on news that just hit the wire which we
haven't talked about today which is it looks like Facebook is gonna ban all political ads this year
what yeah I do that obviously the Facebook invite
01:30:36
for survival right now that ad camp amazing how a
bunch of advertisers taking a one-month pause all
01:30:42
of a sudden brings Zuckerberg to the table amazing
how my my well-timed short thesis tweet plays Oh
01:30:49
yum yum so I think that works that obviously works
to Biden's favor all right that's the case and
01:30:54
then - my point on the debate if I were Biden what
I would do right now is I would go on Twitter and I would say release your tax returns and I'll
debate you and I would repeat that tweet twice
01:31:02
a day and love it the Thurber gets the dunk 360
Danza dungeon that's a card Eldersburg for free
01:31:12
burger wins the debate this show is sponsored
by nobody however I'm gonna ask my bestie see
01:31:18
if somebody were to make a $25,000 donation to
charity would you allow me to read an ad for 30
01:31:26
seconds during the pot at some point no but I'll
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01:31:32
ever I love and I love you guys I miss you love
you bestie see I love you love you free love
01:31:39
you sacks was great playing golf let's get let's
go off let's [ __ ] golf man I'm losing my mind we'll see you a little let's do a little small
little NASA boys a little time you buy on the all
01:31:54
in podcast tell your friends to tune in if they
want to listen to something intelligent bye-bye
