00:00:00
jk are you going to do your trump impression wereÂ
you going to do your your okay yeah everybody Â
00:00:04
i'm getting my twitter arrangement syndrome rightÂ
before we start the podcast i want to warm him up Â
00:00:10
this doesn't warm him up it gets them deranged getÂ
your show notes up [ __ ] let your winners ride Â
00:00:19
rain man david sacks it to the fansÂ
and they've just gone crazy with them Â
00:00:33
hey everybody hey everybody welcome toÂ
another all in podcast with me today of course Â
00:00:40
the dictator chamath polly hoppetea the queenÂ
of kin wah david friedberg and of course yeah Â
00:00:49
definitely the rain man is here david sacksÂ
he's an excellent driver in the driveway yeah Â
00:00:55
okay boys uh i guess we made it to episode 22.Â
your intro becomes one second longer for every Â
00:01:02
episode we do it's just people love it and it'sÂ
so laborious you know they don't they think it's Â
00:01:07
so stupid i am you have to understand persuasionÂ
what i'm doing is i do the same intro and it warms Â
00:01:13
up okay see we're still we're still talking aboutÂ
the intro okay let's just see everybody's obsessed Â
00:01:18
about it you prove my point all right guys are weÂ
gonna dress elephant in the room the elephant in Â
00:01:24
the room or do we just move on to topics i willÂ
say elephant in the room after the last show Â
00:01:30
um i fought very hard with the three of youÂ
to not post that episode you wanted to can't Â
00:01:38
you want to spike the episode i wanted to spikeÂ
the episode and i'll tell you why um i thought Â
00:01:43
it was not good content i don't think vlad saidÂ
anything new or remarkable or interesting i don't Â
00:01:47
think we had good analysis and i think the wholeÂ
thing kind of felt flat and felt like a pr stunt Â
00:01:52
and i felt that truly and honestly and i you knowÂ
i made the case to you guys that we should cancel Â
00:01:57
um obviously i lost uh and i think going forwardÂ
we should have a veto right but you know we can Â
00:02:02
talk about that offline did you quit the showÂ
or did you threaten to quit the threatened Â
00:02:07
the show i'm gonna after this i'm gonna propose toÂ
you my rules my ground rules for for going forward Â
00:02:14
one of which i think should be noÂ
more pr [ __ ] from jason's portfolio Â
00:02:18
but um you know besides that i think i think iÂ
hear a bestie guestie is that com.com at the door
00:02:27
and i i don't think that we're journalists byÂ
the way i don't i don't think that the journalism Â
00:02:32
thing works for us i think we're like analystsÂ
and commentators and you know we have opinions Â
00:02:36
and so to bring someone on and try and interviewÂ
them with a four-on-one format it just feels weird Â
00:02:41
it doesn't seem to work it doesn'tÂ
create an opportunity for discourse Â
00:02:44
and frankly you know when you try and doÂ
journalism in this context you either appear Â
00:02:50
like you're softballing or you appear like you'reÂ
doing gotcha journalism and i think both are bad Â
00:02:54
and so i think it works really well when the fourÂ
of us just kind of chat and analyze and shoot the Â
00:02:59
[ __ ] and have opinions and talk and debate umÂ
and so my vote is to kind of avoid doing bestie Â
00:03:05
guesties unless you know it's something prettyÂ
amazing and critical and we can all kind of build Â
00:03:09
a dialogue with that person around a topic but umÂ
yeah so that's kind of my where i'm sitting and Â
00:03:15
how i feel about it but we've had a lot of debatesÂ
obviously since uh since the last episode about it Â
00:03:20
can can i can i build on what you're saying umÂ
you know this is like kind of like that really Â
00:03:26
uh famous teddy roosevelt quote about sort ofÂ
like the man in the arena with the dust on his Â
00:03:31
face right um i feel like all four of us are inÂ
the grind doing things and i think what makes the Â
00:03:38
podcast good is it's almost like there's like youÂ
know in a basketball game of four quarters there's Â
00:03:43
a time out and you come off the floor and youÂ
can actually just take a second to observe what Â
00:03:48
you're seeing and then the ref blows the whistleÂ
and you go back into the game and i think for me Â
00:03:54
what makes this thing so fun is i feel like everyÂ
friday for these two hours you know it's basically Â
00:04:00
the ref calls a timeout or the coach calls aÂ
timeout and we can just kind of take a breath Â
00:04:04
and just observe all right what's happened beforeÂ
we get back in the arena and so you know just to Â
00:04:09
your point um i don't think we're journalistsÂ
and i don't think we should try to be because Â
00:04:14
i don't think that's the point of what this isÂ
it should be for friends talking about things Â
00:04:17
that are important and then to the extent thatÂ
it's important and interesting for other people Â
00:04:21
they'll listen or not listen and i thinkÂ
these last few weeks we got caught up a Â
00:04:25
little too much in you know ratings where isÂ
it ranking how can we go higher and it's that Â
00:04:30
the gamification of people's reactions that iÂ
think caused us you know to do that um whereas the Â
00:04:37
episode before i actually kind of liked becauseÂ
draymond is legitimately one of our really good Â
00:04:42
friends you know he's a bestie we see him weÂ
see him many many times obviously less during Â
00:04:46
basketball season but a ton when he's outsideÂ
we play poker together we all hang out together Â
00:04:52
so it's that to me i think is sort ofÂ
inbounds um last week and then also you know Â
00:04:58
last week i was i think we were all supposed toÂ
be on point i'll just tell you personally for me Â
00:05:03
i had an extremely crushing twoÂ
weeks of work i was extremely tired Â
00:05:08
i ended up literally unplugging and not doingÂ
anything for three days straight and sleeping Â
00:05:13
um and so i didn't even do my best even just toÂ
be either supportive or you know uh argumentative Â
00:05:19
with vlad so i don't think i got anything outÂ
of it myself okay coming around the horn sacks Â
00:05:23
do you how do you feel that episode stands onÂ
its own obviously it's very polarizing we got Â
00:05:28
barbecued in the comments we got barbecuedÂ
on reddit we got barbecued on social media Â
00:05:33
but then there were a large number of peopleÂ
who said they really liked it uh my mom um Â
00:05:39
david pr my portfolio manager right i mean peopleÂ
who liked it excellent right there's 12 people in Â
00:05:50
the watch fun give us your candid assessmentÂ
because you weren't as hard as these other two Â
00:05:55
on it yeah i wasn't as hard as these other two andÂ
i do feel like that if they felt they that we were Â
00:06:01
soft on vlad then they should have brought itÂ
harder and they should have gone after vlad and Â
00:06:06
challenged him more that being said i completelyÂ
understand and agree with what freeberg is saying Â
00:06:13
that look we're not journalists we're not playingÂ
a game of gotcha it's not our job to go after vlad Â
00:06:20
i think a lot of the you know the comments onÂ
twitter that's what they wanted us to do but Â
00:06:24
that's not who we are you know um it's difficultÂ
for business to sex i mean if you're attacking Â
00:06:30
vlad and then the next day we have to go intoÂ
supporting founder mode it's kind of a bad look Â
00:06:36
isn't it yeah i mean it's not what we do right iÂ
mean we we are like your mouth was saying we are Â
00:06:42
in the arena we're doing things we're not criticsÂ
sitting on the sidelines pointing out you know Â
00:06:48
what the doers of deeds did wrong you know and soÂ
it's not our job to you know run an inquisition Â
00:06:54
on on vlad you know and so we're not reallyÂ
equipped to do that i think i think freeburg is Â
00:07:00
right that it doesn't really make sense to haveÂ
guests on the show if the job is to you know to Â
00:07:07
get to the bottom of something as investigatorsÂ
you know we're not we're not investigators and Â
00:07:12
it was you know a big story uh just toÂ
sort of put a cap in it from my perspective Â
00:07:18
you know i'm always supportive of my guys i tryÂ
to be supportive of whoever i invest in and i Â
00:07:23
try to give them the benefit of doubt and thisÂ
is a situation where you know people are upset Â
00:07:27
there were mistakes that were made and so iÂ
think anything other than demolishing vlad Â
00:07:33
is considered by some constituency as a failureÂ
right and so what are we supposed to do here i Â
00:07:38
can't be trashing my own company that i'm anÂ
investor and a supporter of and founders who i Â
00:07:43
believe in it just it would well i think there wasÂ
a moment there was a moment in the pod jason where Â
00:07:48
i think actually uh so on the whole i thoughtÂ
vlad did it did a good job in accomplishing his Â
00:07:54
objective on our pod which was the same objectiveÂ
he had in front of congress which was basically Â
00:08:00
to run out the clock without saying very much youÂ
know and uh you know he actually whoever prepped Â
00:08:05
him for for congress did a pretty good job becauseÂ
he testified for five hours and said nothing Â
00:08:10
quotable you know which which is pretty much kindÂ
of the goal during that situation it's kind of Â
00:08:15
the goal for your head down yeah exactly so butÂ
there was a moment in the pod last week where i Â
00:08:21
think vlad got himself in a little bit of troubleÂ
freeburg did ask actually a pretty tough question Â
00:08:25
about the guy in the street who who had lost allÂ
of his life savings how would vlad respond to that Â
00:08:30
he made this claim well i saved that person moneyÂ
because i shut down trading at the high and then Â
00:08:36
we pointed out no i mean it was a high becauseÂ
you shut down trading you have the causation Â
00:08:41
backwards and then you you ran and said whoa whoaÂ
whoa whoa you know well my guy was on the floor i Â
00:08:48
got to pick him up what are you talking about iÂ
called the timeout i got in there but let's yeah Â
00:08:53
exactly yeah all right let's move on let's see doÂ
we talk about the insanely high profile guest that Â
00:08:59
was planned for march 5th that just canceled on usÂ
no no we should we should talk to you do we put it Â
00:09:04
on the tab because i you know this this the otherÂ
thing about protocol i'll just say freeburg is Â
00:09:08
if we have a guest on you cannot just spike theÂ
guests if they took the time to be on that was my Â
00:09:13
unless you tell them before they come on i mayÂ
say we might spike it if it doesn't if we don't Â
00:09:18
like it yeah do they get that right none of us doÂ
this for a profession none of us are getting paid Â
00:09:24
we don't have any advertisers like i completelyÂ
agree we're not here to get a tr machine for Â
00:09:28
people i mean vlad had his friggin pr womanÂ
sitting on the zoom call while we were doing it Â
00:09:33
last week you know like i just don't think that'sÂ
a little inside baseball that got interesting i Â
00:09:36
think explain what happened when well no we don'tÂ
have to go there jason i just think i just think Â
00:09:41
what freebrook says is right like we we do this weÂ
don't make any money from it we do it because we Â
00:09:46
like to talk we i think we all learn from itÂ
i think other folks enjoy it they learn from Â
00:09:51
it but i do think that freeberg's right we're notÂ
going to be used as a shill i think we're learning Â
00:09:57
i think we're learning what the ground rulesÂ
should be just like any other business vlad's Â
00:10:01
made mistakes he's going to change we've madeÂ
some mistakes and we're iterating and i think one Â
00:10:06
positive iteration that freeberg has proposed isÂ
if any one of us don't like an episode because we Â
00:10:10
think it's basically moving away from our valuesÂ
we should be able to spike it and i i support that Â
00:10:16
i support it generally but i don't like the ideaÂ
of inviting a guest on and then it doesn't go well Â
00:10:21
and then telling you know from our perspectiveÂ
it makes us look bad and then we tell the guests Â
00:10:26
well you came out that's good and we came out downÂ
there we're killing you no no i don't think that's Â
00:10:31
the point i think what freeberg says is likeÂ
look this is not for to be a marketing thing and Â
00:10:35
so we're going to ask things that are exposed thatÂ
are about having a real conversation where there's Â
00:10:41
real honesty and if you're going to just be thereÂ
and bat around as sac said to run the clock out Â
00:10:47
then we're just gonna spike fair enough fairÂ
enough i think if that's communicated ahead i'm Â
00:10:51
okay by the way come with your a game and thisÂ
is a great segue to talk about what actually we Â
00:10:56
were a person that was gonna come on and realizeÂ
that they probably were going to get so pilloried Â
00:11:02
um that they basically spiked themselvesÂ
uh is yeah they opted out jessa boudin the Â
00:11:08
the district attorney of san francisco tell tellÂ
the guys what happened sex well no we we invited Â
00:11:12
him to come on the podcast no no we didn'tÂ
invite him to come he an intermediary said Â
00:11:19
that she could get him on the pod would we like toÂ
have him on the pod we said we discussed that we Â
00:11:23
said sure have chested on and then go from thereÂ
sex we didn't like seek him out he was well okay Â
00:11:29
so he he great so he but he agreed to be on theÂ
show and then you our scheduler got an email out Â
00:11:36
of the blue like a day or two ago saying sorryÂ
he's not coming on the show no explanation right Â
00:11:41
isn't that what happened yeah that's basicallyÂ
it i mean so look here's what i would say is um Â
00:11:47
chaser mr district attorney you don't have to comeÂ
on the show but i will challenge you to a debate Â
00:11:53
anytime anyplace any format on your policiesÂ
in san francisco so if you have if you have Â
00:12:01
the huevos to engage in a debate i am ready and iÂ
thought chaser was a guy who had a little bit of Â
00:12:09
courage i mean there was that night when peopleÂ
were discussing the situation in san francisco Â
00:12:14
and on clubhouse and he jumped into the room soÂ
i thought this was a guy who had some cajones Â
00:12:20
so chase if you have if you have the hotspotÂ
if you have the cajones if you have the huevos Â
00:12:27
let's debate let's talk about your policies andÂ
by the way he's an expert this is what he does Â
00:12:35
you know he's an expert isn't he a defenseÂ
attorney sacks you're going to have a Â
00:12:38
he was a public defender he should heÂ
should mop the floor with me i'm just some Â
00:12:44
shallow tech bro yeah tech bro who doesn'tÂ
know anything who he can easily demonize Â
00:12:50
so i would say come on let's go let's do aÂ
debate i'll agree to whatever format you want Â
00:12:56
but we need to talk about what's happening inÂ
san francisco because crime is out of control Â
00:13:00
and it's his fault trigger the youngÂ
spielberg rain man song right about
00:13:14
we should talk about what's happening in sanÂ
francisco okay so since since the last pod Â
00:13:20
there there has been another victimÂ
um sharia muslim who was a young Â
00:13:27
young man from from originally from kenyaÂ
who he came to the united states for college Â
00:13:32
just like hannah abe uh who was killed on newÂ
year's eve uh he went to dartmouth all of his Â
00:13:38
advisers said he was brilliant he had a youngÂ
wife and a three-year-old baby he was in san Â
00:13:42
francisco for 10 days goes out running andÂ
gets hit gets gets killed by another drugged Â
00:13:49
out hit and run driver who had been uh named um uhÂ
let's say i think it was uh jerry jerry oli adams Â
00:13:58
or something like that um i don't have the theÂ
guy's name but he was arrested four or five times Â
00:14:04
in the last year and he was released every singleÂ
time by boudin's office it's it's just like the Â
00:14:10
new year's eve story where you had this repeatÂ
offender troy mcallister hit you know he was he Â
00:14:17
had stolen a car he was fleeing another crime heÂ
had committed he was on drugs and he killed hannah Â
00:14:23
abbey and elizabeth platt and this was this wasÂ
another case where he was caught five times over Â
00:14:29
the past year and every single time he was notÂ
charged by buda and he was just let go and so we Â
00:14:35
have this case we have a district attorney whoÂ
doesn't want to prosecute people his agenda is Â
00:14:39
decarceration it's like a fire chief who doesn'tÂ
believe in using water yeah and he is part of the Â
00:14:46
burn it all down party yeah let me challenge youÂ
with the argument he might make which i think i've Â
00:14:51
heard him make a few times um which is reallyÂ
um a position on the criminal justice system Â
00:14:59
not necessarily on local prosecution but reallyÂ
what he says is once um you know once someone ends Â
00:15:07
up in the criminal justice system in the unitedÂ
states it causes this cycle of recurrence and the Â
00:15:12
cycle of repeat that is very difficult to get outÂ
it basically minimizes the opportunity for reform Â
00:15:18
for an individual for a criminal to to reformÂ
themselves and to have a shot at being a Â
00:15:23
successful member of society again in the futureÂ
and the objective is find other ways to to kind of Â
00:15:30
accelerate reform and not use incarceration asÂ
the only tool in the toolbox what is um you know Â
00:15:37
what is the the argument back to him when he makesÂ
that point because i've heard him make that point Â
00:15:41
a number of times and how do you kind of moveÂ
past that uh that point with him yeah so so the Â
00:15:47
the i'm not saying that incarceration is the onlyÂ
answer but boudin's only answer is decarceration Â
00:15:54
he doesn't want to prosecute anyone he doesn'tÂ
want to lock anybody up and we see the results Â
00:15:58
immediately in this community you have theseÂ
repeat offenders now killing people they should Â
00:16:04
have been locked up it's you know boudin's alwaysÂ
putting forth these elaborate theories this is Â
00:16:12
you know the the central chronicle an articleÂ
about it about why these crimes occur and he Â
00:16:16
never wants to put the fault on the people whoÂ
are actually perpetrating the crimes it's always Â
00:16:20
economic desperation he just put affordÂ
a theory that a decline in tourism Â
00:16:25
is causing uh people to commit more uh homeÂ
invasions you know he he never wants to yes this Â
00:16:31
is in the service of chronic article here i'll putÂ
it up on this i mean it's crazy i mean the other Â
00:16:35
thing you left out david i'll say is and this wasÂ
really you know hits home to anybody with kids Â
00:16:41
is a food driver for doordash not that itÂ
matters which service but uh was in san Â
00:16:46
francisco's pacific heights neighborhood whichÂ
is the safest and most elite neighborhood uh Â
00:16:52
in it's you know the beverly hills or bel airÂ
of san francisco and his car was carjacked with Â
00:16:59
his four-year-old daughter and two-year-old boyÂ
inside now of course you should not be leaving two Â
00:17:04
kids in the car putting that aside that mistakeÂ
which i'm sure this father is suffering over but Â
00:17:11
he needed to make deliveries obviously heÂ
made a mistake of leaving the kids in the car Â
00:17:15
but we all got an amber alert last week on ourÂ
phones i mean this is the level of lawlessness Â
00:17:21
it's turned into escape from new york levelÂ
gotham city level chaos and the criminals know Â
00:17:28
they will not be prosecuted and this is theÂ
key criminal justice problem here if you say Â
00:17:34
you are not going to prosecute crime and youÂ
demonstrate to the hardest core faction of Â
00:17:39
criminals that you don't prosecute they're goingÂ
to take advantage of that weakness and and that's Â
00:17:44
what's happening let me take the counterpointÂ
just for a second just so we can construct Â
00:17:49
what the other side of the argument looks like theÂ
other side of the argument says okay these folks Â
00:17:53
are largely you know engaged in an enormous amountÂ
of petty crime to support their drug habit right Â
00:17:59
i think that's probably the and that you knowÂ
underneath that is just an explosion uh of opioids Â
00:18:06
and fentanyl and whatnot underneath that is sortÂ
of economic uncertainty that's been compounding Â
00:18:12
and just basically crusting over um and so folksÂ
would say okay these guys are a victim of a much Â
00:18:19
broader economic malaise that needs to get fixedÂ
i'm just i'm just you know you're shaking your Â
00:18:23
head jason but i'm just saying i think thatÂ
that's where the trail of breadcrumbs grows Â
00:18:26
in the counter in the counter in the in in theÂ
counter argument so well th th these are these are Â
00:18:32
the types of arguments that chaser makes in orderÂ
to um obfuscate and disguise that his real agenda Â
00:18:40
is basically radical decarceration you knowÂ
he's got this this childhood background Â
00:18:45
where his parents went to jail when he was just aÂ
baby and he grew up he says his earliest memories Â
00:18:50
are visiting his parents in jail and it profoundlyÂ
affected his political views and now we have to Â
00:18:55
suffer through this we're suffering for hisÂ
childhood trauma here's his childhood trauma Â
00:19:00
and so so tremoth you're right about deeper causesÂ
but it doesn't excuse the need to lock people up Â
00:19:08
when they are dangerous to the community and it'sÂ
not just petty crime i mean let's go through the Â
00:19:13
actions he's taken as da okay so first week on theÂ
job just about he abolished the whole cash bail Â
00:19:19
system okay which voters in november just voted uhÂ
in with prop 25 to affirm so voters of california Â
00:19:28
want the cash bail system because it keepsÂ
criminals locked up what chase has said is that Â
00:19:32
he would replace cash bail with an algorithm wellÂ
what exactly is that algorithm he won't explain Â
00:19:39
well he won't submit to third party audit thereÂ
is no algorithm they're just letting people go Â
00:19:43
okay then the next thing he did was fire sevenÂ
veteran prosecutors in the da's office who weren't Â
00:19:50
on board with his agenda these are people whoÂ
have spent their whole lives prosecuting murders Â
00:19:56
rapes i mean hardcore crime and it takes years ofÂ
experience to learn how to be a prosecutor like Â
00:20:02
that so for him to just purge this office of theseÂ
veteran prosecutors is a disaster for the city Â
00:20:09
i've been talking to people who used to work inÂ
the da's office and they tell me that the problem Â
00:20:14
goes much deeper than that that in addition toÂ
these seven veterans he purged over 30 prosecutors Â
00:20:20
which is about a quarter of the whole officeÂ
have left under his reign because they don't like Â
00:20:24
working for him so you know and he complains aboutÂ
being short-staffed he says a lot that he can't Â
00:20:31
you know prosecute everyone needs to be prosecutedÂ
he's so stuff the reason he's short staff is no Â
00:20:34
one wants to work for him you know by the way iÂ
think it's worth highlighting this guy was elected Â
00:20:39
right so the the the city the voters in the cityÂ
runoff i understand right he won by something Â
00:20:44
like 2000 votes it was a tiny tiny number of votesÂ
regardless people voted him in on a platform that Â
00:20:50
he very clearly articulated and is now realizingÂ
in office so there's something about that platform Â
00:20:56
that i think is worth noting was and is appealingÂ
uh and and probably is to a large number of people Â
00:21:03
largely right and no the the the part of it that'sÂ
appealing okay is that is that is that we we do Â
00:21:10
believe that there are too many people in prisonÂ
and that a better and a better way to deal with a Â
00:21:16
drug addict who commits say petty theft is to sendÂ
them to treatment okay as opposed to putting them Â
00:21:22
in prison right so i think we can all agree onÂ
that but but his agenda is so much more radical Â
00:21:27
than that he just doesn't want to lock peopleÂ
up take um take troy mcallister okay this is Â
00:21:32
a dangerous person who uh he was uh he was facingÂ
trial for his third strike okay he committed armed Â
00:21:40
robbery he robbed a store with a gun okay he wasÂ
facing a third strike for that for that robbery Â
00:21:47
and one of the first things uh chase did when heÂ
came in was basically uh releasing for time served Â
00:21:52
he basically pleaded that down that was someoneÂ
who's facing a life sentence that is the reason Â
00:21:57
why hannah abbey and elizabeth platt are deadÂ
is because he didn't want to prosecute that's Â
00:22:01
a violent offender sex i i'm not disagreeing byÂ
the way i think like what is interesting to me Â
00:22:07
is that so many people um have an eye on andÂ
agree with the notion that criminal justice Â
00:22:13
system needs reform the problem is realizingÂ
that reform with a radical district attorney Â
00:22:20
doesn't really resolve to a solution it resolvesÂ
to more problems on a local level what's good Â
00:22:25
and even chase said this publicly which is likeÂ
you can't just solve this problem from the da's Â
00:22:30
office it is a much bigger and broader problemÂ
and the radical action he's taking isn't solving Â
00:22:35
any problems it's creating far more and um i thinkÂ
it is worth noting though that there is should and Â
00:22:41
likely will be especially with uh kamala harrisÂ
uh um as vice president some attempts at reforming Â
00:22:48
on a federal level um uh you know how howÂ
criminals are treated how the system realizes Â
00:22:55
opportunities for them to reform and come backÂ
into society as productive members but to your Â
00:23:00
point you lose all sense of safety and security ifÂ
you try and do it solely on the local level well Â
00:23:05
let me let me ask a question like look now we haveÂ
basically political activism and judicial activism Â
00:23:10
on not just the right right people used to pilloryÂ
trump for putting in all these you know extremely Â
00:23:16
conservative judges who felt they were gonna justÂ
sort of like legislate their own point of view Â
00:23:21
you know supreme court nominees whoÂ
were going to try to overturn roe v Â
00:23:24
wade uh but it turns out it's happening on theÂ
left as well i guess just more at the local level Â
00:23:30
um how pervasive is this like meaning the issuesÂ
of san francisco are they are these the same Â
00:23:35
issues of other cities and towns in america wellÂ
i mean you've got gascon in la who's running the Â
00:23:42
exact same agenda as chase abu deen he's notÂ
prosecuting third strikes he was just sued by Â
00:23:50
an organization of deputy da's and the judge isÂ
now requiring him to uphold the law which is three Â
00:23:56
strikes he will not bring third strike charges onÂ
his own he's also this is both gascon and boudin Â
00:24:01
now have prohibited prosecutors from attendingÂ
the parole hearings of dangerous convicts Â
00:24:07
murderers rapists whatever and victims groupsÂ
are up in arms because they need a prosecutor Â
00:24:13
to go there and explain to the parole boardÂ
why this person does not deserve to be released Â
00:24:18
and so you now have recall movements formingÂ
and by the way they've also done stuff like take Â
00:24:23
death penalty off the table they've take takenÂ
gang enhancements off the table they're like Â
00:24:27
voluntarily they're unilaterally disarmingÂ
their their the prosecution teams they're Â
00:24:32
taking away weapons at their disposal to lockÂ
people up and this is why you're already seeing Â
00:24:37
recalls forming around guests going into laÂ
there's now a recall of uh boudin forming okay Â
00:24:43
david david go back to what friedrich just saidÂ
they're probably not doing a bait and switch on Â
00:24:47
their platform so let's just like what doÂ
you think it is about what they are saying Â
00:24:53
that resonates on the way in with the pluralityÂ
of people yeah here's the thing that resonates um Â
00:25:00
and and it's not that again it goes back to thisÂ
idea that incarceration is definitely not the only Â
00:25:06
answer this is where i agree the problem is budinÂ
is on the other side of it where decarceration is Â
00:25:12
his only answer right we need to use uh multipleÂ
weapons or tools in our toolkit here so hold on Â
00:25:19
so for example okay let's take the let's takeÂ
the drug addict who commits a petty theft we Â
00:25:24
all agree that person should go to treatment notÂ
to jail or prison right a non-violent of course Â
00:25:29
offender okay reason but how how are you gonna getÂ
that person to go to treatment because right now Â
00:25:33
there is no leverage whatsoever to get thatÂ
person to go to treatment because boone's Â
00:25:38
just not bringing charges he's not prosecuting theÂ
choice should be given to that person listen you Â
00:25:44
can either go to jail or you can go to treatmentÂ
what's it going to be yeah that's right right now Â
00:25:49
we have all these social services guess whatÂ
nobody uses them because a hardcore addict is Â
00:25:53
not going to avail themselves of those servicesÂ
i would make the argument that we have a broader Â
00:25:59
bigger problem with the criminal justice systemÂ
as it operates and it is deep and it is complex Â
00:26:04
and it is friggin awful there's a book from a fewÂ
years ago that this guy named shane bauer wrote Â
00:26:10
i'm just trying to remember the nameÂ
i think it's called american prison Â
00:26:13
and uh the guy goes undercover and he goes andÂ
works in a in a in a penitentiary in louisiana Â
00:26:19
um and he reports on what the conditions are likeÂ
and these are these these prisons that are run by Â
00:26:23
private companies that are contracted by the stateÂ
locally and what it's like to be an employee at Â
00:26:28
one of these companies and what these employeesÂ
do and how the prisoners are treated there is no Â
00:26:33
system for reform once you end up behind barsÂ
in most prisons in the united states and that Â
00:26:38
is um you know he makes the argument others haveÂ
made the argument that is a has a long history Â
00:26:44
that dates all the way back to slavery in theÂ
united states and in some cases it's just about Â
00:26:47
ineptitude in some cases about unions especiallyÂ
in california where we have a huge cost for uh for Â
00:26:53
corrections and for the uh the health care and theÂ
pensions for corrections officers and so there's Â
00:26:58
a lot of complex competing interests in historyÂ
that relates to why this criminal justice system Â
00:27:04
doesn't largely work on a moral and ethical basisÂ
as we might all kind of you know wear our hearts Â
00:27:10
and look at like at how things are working andÂ
so the problem is everyone sees this or a lot of Â
00:27:14
people will see this voters will see this systemÂ
treating people poorly being inept being corrupt Â
00:27:20
and they want us being racist and they want toÂ
fix it and the way they fix it is they see a guy Â
00:27:25
who shows up and he's like i'm a sledgehammer andÂ
i'm going to fix it i'm going to take care of all Â
00:27:29
these people and the reality is when you try andÂ
take a shotgun and shoot it inside of a room it's Â
00:27:33
going to cause more problems than good and i thinkÂ
that's really what he is he is a manifestation Â
00:27:39
of the anger of voters and theÂ
anger of people that look at how Â
00:27:43
complex and racist the system is and how difficultÂ
it is to resolve these problems and we're all Â
00:27:47
looking for a simple big hammer answer and he'sÂ
got the biggest mouth around the biggest family Â
00:27:52
and that's why people vote for him allÂ
right chamoth and then we'll wrap it here Â
00:27:56
absent a few uh words specifically racist if youÂ
took that out you could use that entire statement Â
00:28:01
you said and describe trump as well meaning theÂ
left and the right are moving to these polls where Â
00:28:08
it's all about authoritarian sort of strong men atÂ
the federal state local level folks to your point Â
00:28:15
david that just want to go and take a sledgehammerÂ
to things and depending on your political beliefs Â
00:28:20
or depending on the biases or depending on yourÂ
life lived you're going to gravitate to these two Â
00:28:26
polls and what's crazy is over the next 20 or 30Â
years these polarizing figures will become crisper Â
00:28:34
sharper smarter you know they'll find a way toÂ
foment all of all of the support without any of Â
00:28:42
the long tail shittiness that trump figured outÂ
like trump was you know he's like a beta test of Â
00:28:47
an idea right he was like version 0.1 wait tillÂ
we see version 1.0 of the american strong man Â
00:28:54
or strong woman it's really going to be [ __ ]Â
scary well yeah and this is this is a guy who um Â
00:29:00
uh was a fan of of hugo chavez long after heÂ
revealed himself to be a strong man intent on Â
00:29:07
ruling for life and so yeah he is very much inÂ
that mold he is a sledgehammer to the system but Â
00:29:13
but look i think and and the problems are big andÂ
complicated but look we all have a role to play Â
00:29:19
the reformers have a role to play public defendersÂ
and defense attorneys have a role to play and the Â
00:29:23
district attorneys and prosecutors have a roleÂ
to play and the problem we have right now and the Â
00:29:28
role of the district attorney is to prosecute itÂ
i don't think that this by the way sacks is a very Â
00:29:33
difficult problem to solve i think there are justÂ
so many misaligned incentives it's very clear that Â
00:29:40
we don't try to reform people when they go toÂ
prison and that there's a weird incentive when Â
00:29:45
it's a for-profit prison and the customers andÂ
the revenue is based on how many people you have Â
00:29:50
in the prison so if we just get rid of thatÂ
there's no private prisons where people have Â
00:29:56
an incentive to keep people in there and thenÂ
if we made treatment free for everybody and Â
00:30:00
had over capacity of treatment centers andÂ
then we look at the drug schedule and say Â
00:30:05
these are the drugs that are not these are theÂ
drugs that are not harmful and these are the Â
00:30:09
drugs that are really really really harmful we'reÂ
looking at a fentanyl issue like it's a cannabis Â
00:30:16
issue and that that's drugs you know cannabisÂ
versus fentanyl is like a nuclear bomb versus Â
00:30:25
like a slingshot it's sure there's noÂ
comparison between these two things Â
00:30:29
right and but here's the thing no one's going toÂ
treatment when they're not forced well of course Â
00:30:34
right but there's no treatment to go to maybeÂ
the weight for treatment is six no no no that's Â
00:30:39
not true that's not true we have a lot of socialÂ
services that aren't being used there are there Â
00:30:44
is a lot of treatment available people don'tÂ
want to do it unless they really have to let Â
00:30:47
me bring it back to where we were before maybe theÂ
right thing is to actually have a bunch of these Â
00:30:52
sledgehammer folks go off for the next 10 or 20Â
years you know the trumps and the chesabuddins Â
00:30:59
maybe they're all the same and maybe whatÂ
we're all just saying is enough's enough Â
00:31:03
this system doesn't work so let's just tear itÂ
down every single brick of it brick by brick Â
00:31:08
at the local state and federal level all i'mÂ
saying is um just i just want to get your reaction Â
00:31:14
to that statement guys maybe maybe that's whatÂ
we're seeing people are that that is what bhutan Â
00:31:17
is doing is he is deconstructing the districtÂ
attorney's office from the inside he is destroying Â
00:31:23
it he is not bringing charges against peopleÂ
he's driving away all the veteran prosecutors Â
00:31:29
he's bringing in all his he's bringing in hisÂ
own people who all were uh public defenders Â
00:31:33
and have that mindset and people are dying lookÂ
we can see the results right now in the streets Â
00:31:39
innocent people are dying hannah abbey elizabethÂ
platt cheerio it's an emergency but at chamatte's Â
00:31:44
point is there any validity sacks or fredberg toÂ
the burn it all down cause chaos and then people Â
00:31:50
come in and say you know what that's not gonnaÂ
this doesn't need to be fixed let's have a new Â
00:31:54
discussion will nuance be added to this discussionÂ
sacks we need to improve things incrementally okay Â
00:32:00
you're not going to make things better byÂ
dismantling the whole district attorney's Â
00:32:03
office i mean come on we need to improve thingsÂ
incrementally yeah i mean look everything looks Â
00:32:08
exponential until it cycles back so you knowÂ
you're only going to have so much um evolution Â
00:32:14
to gotham in san francisco until enough peopleÂ
put their hands in the air and say okay you know Â
00:32:20
time for a change let's go back and let's startÂ
fixing this they are they are saying that that's Â
00:32:25
why we're having that i mean there's a recallÂ
chesa budden movement flexing a muscle and making Â
00:32:29
it stronger i think you know we're learning a lotÂ
about what approaches to criminal justice reform Â
00:32:34
work and what approaches do not work and it isÂ
clear that a local only non-prosecution position Â
00:32:40
is not going to work with respect to both criminalÂ
justice reform and the satisfaction of the society Â
00:32:45
at large um and we're realizing that and i thinkÂ
we are inevitably i mean there's so many people Â
00:32:49
that are up in arms we are inevitably goingÂ
to cycle back the other way at some point very Â
00:32:52
soon here yeah and honestly i think you guysÂ
are over intellectualizing this a little bit Â
00:32:57
you know when when sharia uh died because he gotÂ
hit by by that repeat offender they asked his Â
00:33:04
uh wife who's responsible for this she said veryÂ
clearly the d.a that is who is responsible and Â
00:33:11
she's right let's stop over intellectualizingÂ
this i know the problems are big and complicated Â
00:33:17
frankly people like chase up prey on that becauseÂ
they can kind of obscure what they're doing with Â
00:33:24
you know some nice sounding obfuscation someÂ
nice sounding words but the reality is he's Â
00:33:29
not prosecuting the way he needs to we got to stopÂ
this yeah and it is possible to have nuance and to Â
00:33:36
hold multiple ideas in your head at the same timeÂ
david you could there's a practical reality too Â
00:33:40
people cannot murder people people cannotÂ
drive in cars and run red lights on fentanyl Â
00:33:45
while saying the criminal justice system isÂ
incredibly biased and racist and people who Â
00:33:50
are of color in texas you know wind up in jailÂ
for five or ten years for selling a bag of weed Â
00:33:56
and then we're investing in companies that areÂ
making weed gummies or people are buying stock Â
00:34:02
in weed companies at the same time you can't haveÂ
one person who's a black teenager in texas going Â
00:34:08
to jail for decades for doing what somebody inÂ
california or seattle or canada is getting an Â
00:34:14
ipo for i mean this is a fundamental injustice inÂ
the world and you're right that's something that Â
00:34:18
chester preys on but there must be nuance hereÂ
where we look at each individual situation say Â
00:34:24
what are the ways to solve the problem surgicallyÂ
not with a shotgun to david freeburg's point Â
00:34:29
but with maybe a scalpel and a sniper rifle doÂ
we want to move on to questions from our audience Â
00:34:35
because they submitted hundreds of questionsÂ
or do we want to move on to the australian news Â
00:34:39
and facebook backing out of publishing news if youÂ
like let's end with the q a i think saks what the Â
00:34:45
[ __ ] is going on with facebook and australiaÂ
and climate change and this is insanity yeah so Â
00:34:50
i think what's going on in australia australiaÂ
is is contemplating a law that would require Â
00:34:56
facebook and google and i think just thoseÂ
two companies to essentially pay royalties for Â
00:35:02
hyperlinks to to to news publications and i thinkÂ
this is mostly at the behest of some powerful Â
00:35:10
uh newspaper magnates down there i think likeÂ
rupert murdoch and i love the way you say magnates Â
00:35:16
it's like well they are i mean you know um and soÂ
uh it but but but this issue is going to be very Â
00:35:22
closely watched by europe and maybe even the u.sÂ
um it's basically a tran like a a wealth transfer Â
00:35:29
from google and and facebook to the traditionalÂ
media and to traditional publishers um this is Â
00:35:36
an issue where i actually um side with withÂ
zuckerberg and facebook on this i mean i kind Â
00:35:44
of threw up a little bit in my mouth saying thatÂ
but um but uh no but look tim berners-lee has Â
00:35:50
come out and said that it could really interfereÂ
with the open internet and the world wide web if Â
00:35:56
you start to tax hyperlinks i mean historicallyÂ
hyperlinks and the titles on hyperlinks were um Â
00:36:06
were were fair use you could you could use thoseÂ
things without violating somebody else's copyright Â
00:36:12
or need to pay them a royalty and so i thinkÂ
that it's it's bizarre to me that that facebook Â
00:36:17
and google wouldn't now be able to use hyperlinksÂ
and i'm kind of worried about where that goes and Â
00:36:23
uh you know i so facebook facebook said thatÂ
they're not going to publish links now for Â
00:36:27
australian news and then but then they followedÂ
that up with they were also going to start Â
00:36:34
dismantling any anti-climate change content iÂ
don't know if that's just just an illustration Â
00:36:39
well there's labeling so there's another thingÂ
going on which is they've decided not to label Â
00:36:43
any posts involving climate change whichÂ
is part of the whole censorship debate Â
00:36:47
and um and so yeah i mean well it's separate butÂ
related in the sense that the traditional media Â
00:36:54
is cheering on censorship but then when facebookÂ
essentially uh censors these links because they Â
00:37:01
don't want to pay royalties to traditional mediaÂ
then the traditional media is up in arms and so Â
00:37:05
they're very selective in how they howÂ
they view these issues my principle is Â
00:37:10
very consistent which is i want an open internetÂ
i'm against censorship in all of its forms and i Â
00:37:16
and i you know and i'm worried that this newÂ
australian law could really lead to some lead to Â
00:37:22
an overall reduction or shutdown here's what'sÂ
really i think going on is that with fair use Â
00:37:29
the doctrine of fair use it's a four-part test uhÂ
you're a lawyer obviously you know all this sacks Â
00:37:33
but to sort of educate people in the audience whoÂ
don't there's no specific uh number of characters Â
00:37:40
no specific percentage of the original work thatÂ
you uh can use you to clear yourself of fair use Â
00:37:47
fair use is a test when it goes before a judge aÂ
judge looks at this four-part test the percentage Â
00:37:52
of the work you used is the public confused isÂ
there some educational or criticism version of it Â
00:37:58
so if you were to use 10 percent of this podcastÂ
and you were to wrap it with you know put us in Â
00:38:04
a picture window and you were 50 of it thereÂ
was no confusion that you were commenting on Â
00:38:09
this that would be fair use or if you were toÂ
use it in educational system and if you were Â
00:38:12
monetizing it now if you were to just clip ourÂ
podcast like this one website clipped the podcast Â
00:38:18
and made 60 clips of it took our file and i sentÂ
them a cease and desist actually and said hey Â
00:38:23
don't do this we're doing it ourselves they foughtÂ
us they said we're fans and i said i don't care Â
00:38:26
if you're fans or not you're not linking backÂ
you're not giving us credit and you're doing 60Â Â
00:38:30
clips if you want to do one or two clips and youÂ
want to comment on it that's fine but you can't Â
00:38:34
take all 60 clips and make a 60 clip version ofÂ
this um and so fairness is in the word fair use Â
00:38:42
the problem with zuckerberg and with how googleÂ
has used journalists content is they are clipping Â
00:38:50
out specific sections of it and puttingÂ
it in something called one box on google Â
00:38:54
so many of you might have said how many people youÂ
know how many pounds are in you know whatever or Â
00:39:01
what time is this tv show on and then the contentÂ
that was made by the ringer or the new york times Â
00:39:06
gets clipped and they put just that section davidÂ
with an algorithm and they give you the answer so Â
00:39:12
you don't need to go visit that website this isÂ
tipping over into what i would call unfair use Â
00:39:17
because you're eliminating the person linkingÂ
now let me finish yeah if it was just the url and Â
00:39:23
you didn't pull the headline you didn't pull theÂ
abstract and you didn't pull a photo that would be Â
00:39:27
fine there is a very easy solution to this whichÂ
is if you want to pull the link and the headline Â
00:39:34
you pay zero dollars but if you want to pullÂ
anything else a hundred characters etc you need Â
00:39:40
to get a license from that person unless you areÂ
doing actual criticism so there's nothing to stop Â
00:39:46
anybody in australia right now from takingÂ
a screenshot of a new york times story or an Â
00:39:51
australian you know newspaper story and writingÂ
some commentary on it you just can't wholesale Â
00:39:56
take everything and so what we're seeing here isÂ
a real-time negotiation between private parties Â
00:40:01
into what is fair and i think google hasÂ
a really rich history of sharing revenue Â
00:40:07
the app store they give 70 to app developersÂ
youtube they give 55 to creators and with adsense Â
00:40:13
they let you put adsense on your website andÂ
they give you 68 cents on the dollar or something Â
00:40:17
in that range they never actually disclose theÂ
exact percentage but that's what i'm told it is Â
00:40:22
facebook has given zero dollars to instagram usersÂ
zero dollar whatsapp uses zero dollars to facebook Â
00:40:27
folks they're too greedy and what facebookÂ
needs to do is either not use the content or Â
00:40:33
come up with some reasonable payment and comeÂ
to an agreement with these folks who are now Â
00:40:37
banding together and they're realizing the trafficÂ
we get from facebook and google is not worth Â
00:40:43
what they're taking away from with us which isÂ
all that revenue that you know they earned in the Â
00:40:48
free market and so this is a free market debateÂ
and i think the government should stay out of it Â
00:40:53
to a certain extent and let the free market workÂ
which is all publishers should get together in the Â
00:40:57
united states and confront facebook and say pay usÂ
unless you use anything more than the headline but Â
00:41:03
jason i think these things are interconnectedÂ
though right on the one hand if you're if you Â
00:41:07
have an economic stake in distribution of contentÂ
but then you're also then going to decide under Â
00:41:15
you know an opaque definition what is truth or notÂ
truth you all of a sudden just become i mean the Â
00:41:22
purest form definition of a publisher right andÂ
i think it just becomes a very treacherous place Â
00:41:28
for both facebook and google to end up in so it'sÂ
almost paying the bell by the way yeah no you're Â
00:41:34
right google's paying for it facebook's decidedÂ
not to but facebook they said something like only Â
00:41:39
four percent of their their their posts involveÂ
this kind of content so it's just not a big deal Â
00:41:45
for them the way it is for for google well iÂ
think it is a big deal for facebook they're just Â
00:41:49
trying to make a point here because zuckerbergÂ
yeah yeah and they're they're being they're being Â
00:41:54
they're being overly heavy-handed in theirÂ
response yeah there's no question about they're Â
00:41:57
throwing their weight around it doesn't look goodÂ
but i'm not defending facebook i'm defending the Â
00:42:01
principal i mean look if this australian principleÂ
were used you wouldn't have the drudge report you Â
00:42:05
wouldn't be able to create a site of newslettersÂ
no you could if it was commentary you could put Â
00:42:11
the link and right it's when you just rip theÂ
links people are objecting to ripping the links Â
00:42:16
without any commentary judge reporter rewrites theÂ
headline puts his own spin on it and then links Â
00:42:21
he would never get caught into this and there isÂ
no publication that would ever object what they're Â
00:42:25
objecting to is taking the photo taking the firstÂ
paragraph and the the the synopsis is 30 or 40Â Â
00:42:32
percent of the value and so facebook is a betterÂ
and twitter with their algorithms are better Â
00:42:39
front pages than the new york times front pageÂ
well why isn't this applying to twitter then i i Â
00:42:44
think it will ultimately they'll go there as wellÂ
i think this will become the test case which is Â
00:42:48
if you want to take more than just the headlineÂ
and like you know basically that's it or the url Â
00:42:56
if you want to have that little snippet pay usÂ
pay us something it doesn't have to be a lot but Â
00:43:02
this could actually solve if these networksÂ
that are making tens to hundreds of millions Â
00:43:07
of billions of dollars if they just said youÂ
know what one percent to the news organizations Â
00:43:12
to keep them viable just like anybody else wouldÂ
pay on the licensing fee for terrestrial rights Â
00:43:18
why is the australian government setting the priceÂ
and why are they only applying this to google and Â
00:43:23
facebook well i think they're going to go rightÂ
down the line i think it's just a starting point Â
00:43:26
but to my point i said earlier is i don't thinkÂ
the government needs to do this right i think Â
00:43:30
the news organizations on mass should get togetherÂ
and put their foot down and say no and if they did Â
00:43:35
they would get it sounds like what the governmentÂ
should do is clarify what fair use entails Â
00:43:42
maybe it's just maybe it's a link plus a title iÂ
mean look it's it's never just a link right it's a Â
00:43:46
hyperlink plus the the plus the work yeah exactlyÂ
yes the snippet is the issue right so fine so Â
00:43:54
the government should clarify what fair use isÂ
and then if google and facebook or ever want more Â
00:43:58
they got to go negotiate for it exactly but butÂ
australia is doing more than that they're setting Â
00:44:03
the price and they're limiting their overreachingÂ
policy just to google and facebook because they Â
00:44:08
know that if they applied it to everybodyÂ
by the way we do that we already do this in Â
00:44:12
the united states david with local carriageÂ
of uh news organizations on terrestrial tv Â
00:44:17
so we already have we already mix it up with theÂ
ftc doing this with licenses and the public good Â
00:44:23
so it's the extent i think the other thing thatÂ
you know is going to happen with all of this Â
00:44:27
is like on the other on the other side of thisÂ
the actual media organizations themselves that Â
00:44:32
theoretically could benefit from this are franklyÂ
just going out of business anyways i i there's a Â
00:44:38
you know there's a wall street journal alert umÂ
for the owner of the la times who's about to sell Â
00:44:43
the times like it's very likely that the times inÂ
four or five years doesn't even exist so i don't Â
00:44:48
really know where all of this goes except that youÂ
know everybody's just going to be an individual Â
00:44:53
person blogging and tweeting whatever opinion theyÂ
want right so there'll be no money to pay anybody Â
00:45:00
because it won't really matter but what will beÂ
left is then these rules on arbitration of fact Â
00:45:05
and fiction and i think that that's where we'reÂ
going to end up that's going to be a crazy place Â
00:45:10
because then those folks those folksÂ
then really are the puppet masters Â
00:45:14
yeah i i i agree that these traditionalÂ
publications have like a fundamental Â
00:45:18
business model problem and it's not going to beÂ
salt like i think there's a like a misplaced blame Â
00:45:24
on facebook and google i mean the fundamentalÂ
problem with all these publications are Â
00:45:28
you go search for a news article on something andÂ
there's like 10 versions of the same thing or more Â
00:45:33
100 versions and you know when newspapers we sawÂ
thousands of newspapers all across the country and Â
00:45:38
they had a local geographic monopoly but once itÂ
all got digitized and moved online you realize how Â
00:45:44
much redundancy there was you have thousandsÂ
of reporters creating the exact same thing Â
00:45:49
and there needs to be consolidation it doesn'tÂ
make sense to have 100 articles not only that Â
00:45:53
but a point we made last time which is um you knowÂ
facts have largely commoditized or most facts like Â
00:45:59
you know remember we used to open the newspaperÂ
and look at what the stock market prices were Â
00:46:03
we we opened the newspaper looked at the sportsÂ
scores we looked at what happened in this place Â
00:46:08
in this place facts about events facts aboutÂ
the prices of things facts about sports scores Â
00:46:14
that's all completely commoditized i mean that'sÂ
like 90 of the content of what people used to read Â
00:46:18
the newspaper for has gone online and so as weÂ
talked about last time newspapers and publications Â
00:46:23
of the like have largely moved into youÂ
know different sorts of narratives and um Â
00:46:28
you know it's created a a marketplace thatÂ
has a lot more competition because anyone Â
00:46:33
can write that as we're seeing with sub stack andÂ
medium and as we're seeing with our own podcast Â
00:46:38
that we're seeing with our own podcast and iÂ
think that's um this feels to me like you know Â
00:46:42
i went to a media conference back in 2008 andÂ
there was this huge battle between google and Â
00:46:51
viacom and i was at the conference and iÂ
think larry page was on stage or someone Â
00:46:57
or eric schmidt was on stage and the viacom ceoÂ
got up and he's like when are you gonna start Â
00:47:01
paying us for our content and uh i think thatÂ
that and he really screamed at him in a room of Â
00:47:06
like 800 people and i feel like that same kind ofÂ
point of view has persisted until there's finally Â
00:47:12
some legislation that they feel kind of gets themÂ
justice meanwhile the world has passed them by Â
00:47:16
and you know i think this uh this will be kindÂ
of some transitory uh legislation that ultimately Â
00:47:22
the content is going to democratize anyway and theÂ
content creation's going to democratize last topic Â
00:47:26
for me because i really want friedberg's answerÂ
to this because i also just saw an alert how the Â
00:47:32
federal government is opening up a vaccinationÂ
site in miami-dade county i actually saw francis Â
00:47:36
suarez retweet it um what the hell's going on withÂ
vaccinations are we going to get vaccinated soon Â
00:47:43
i said it in december and i tweeted about it andÂ
i've repeated it multiple times since that the u.s Â
00:47:50
has enough supply to vaccinate pretty much anyoneÂ
that wants to get vaccinated because we are Â
00:47:55
producing and delivering three to four millionÂ
doses per day in the us right now and um there Â
00:48:02
is a just a fundamental issue especially likeÂ
i mean look at california you know they haven't Â
00:48:06
opened up quote unquote vaccination to peopleÂ
outside of tier or what they're called tier 1a Â
00:48:12
and so this is much more of a kind of policyÂ
issue than an administrative issue than a supply Â
00:48:19
and demand issue there's enough people thatÂ
want the vaccine and there's enough vaccine Â
00:48:22
so just let people get [ __ ] vaccinated umÂ
and so i feel like the market forces are now Â
00:48:28
kind of converging with policy a little bit moreÂ
than they were a month ago and the policymakers Â
00:48:33
are no longer fighting and complaining aboutÂ
supply and complaining about constraints you know Â
00:48:37
we've got mass vac sites now in california theÂ
amount of money that's being wasted by the way in Â
00:48:42
this process makes me want to vomit every time iÂ
read about it that's a whole other separate issue Â
00:48:46
but it feels to me like we're probably may juneÂ
when enough people are vaccinated that we can Â
00:48:52
have you know a circumstance where people areÂ
going to fly without masks and be comfortable Â
00:48:56
doing so but i'm sure there will be these over youÂ
know constraining rules around what people can and Â
00:49:00
can't do in public for a very long time like iÂ
mentioned would happen i do want to say one thing Â
00:49:05
that i've noticed we were we were all we playedÂ
some poker the other night we were with a friend Â
00:49:11
who uh got vaccinated and i was like he said thisÂ
is my first time playing poker with people and Â
00:49:16
i was like well you got vaccinated like why areÂ
you he's like well i don't know if other strains Â
00:49:20
are going to get me or you know if this thing'sÂ
evolving and other people are going to get sick Â
00:49:24
and um if you think about what's happened overÂ
the last year people have been conditioned to be Â
00:49:28
afraid and so even though we're getting vaccinatedÂ
even though this thing is moving and working i'm Â
00:49:33
concerned that we're not going to end up in aÂ
more civil state schools aren't opening people Â
00:49:38
aren't flying people aren't doing stuff even afterÂ
vaccinations and science and data shows that these Â
00:49:43
things are okay texas in florida or maybe there'sÂ
something maybe there's some cases of it but what Â
00:49:48
i'm saying is like you know the human subconsciousÂ
gets trained first and then our conscious mind Â
00:49:52
rationalizes what we feel we've all now beenÂ
trained over the past year to be very afraid Â
00:49:58
and then we all come up with these rationalÂ
excuses about why i can't do x y and z it's Â
00:50:04
like but you've been [ __ ] vaccinated you'reÂ
fine like all the data all the science says go do Â
00:50:08
whatever you want to do go into a nightclub sweatyÂ
next to people robbing beats yes tell us about the Â
00:50:17
throbbing nightclub yeah it's like they've neverÂ
seen you so animated it's like that scene from Â
00:50:21
goodwill hunting i remember when he talked to theÂ
psychologist he's like tell us about your rave
00:50:34
did the molly just kick in friedberg didÂ
you drop a molly at the start of the pod Â
00:50:38
but my point is like people are reallyÂ
afraid and i think uh i just got the best Â
00:50:41
idea for an episode the biggest concernÂ
i have is frankly less about are we going Â
00:50:45
to get vaccinated i feel like the convergenceÂ
between market forces and government nonsense Â
00:50:49
is now going to allow us to all get fascinatedÂ
but the issue is really going to be like Â
00:50:53
how do you break through these rules and the fearÂ
that that's basically because i want but i don't Â
00:50:58
understand where where are the max vaccinationÂ
sites in california and who's eligible like Â
00:51:02
why aren't we just making this thingÂ
like a drive-through this is where we can
00:51:10
absolute violent agreement that california is soÂ
messed up with respect to how we're vaccinating Â
00:51:14
we have so much supply we're sitting on half ourÂ
friggin supply right now in california 30 million Â
00:51:19
vaccines sitting on shelves we are now at 75Â
percent deployed 80 california's got like four or Â
00:51:24
five million vaccines sitting in storage it shouldÂ
be a drive-through and you just get in line and Â
00:51:28
you go and sometimes what we're doing is you knowÂ
but in what we're doing now is you got to schedule Â
00:51:34
oh yeah scheduling's [ __ ] because you firstÂ
you got to qualify then you got to schedule Â
00:51:37
an appointment and then the the the clinic orÂ
whatever's only open from nine to five and so Â
00:51:42
like how many doses are they really administeringÂ
when you've got to make an appointment probably Â
00:51:45
one every half hour so maybe they get throughÂ
16 people a day or something qualifications yeah Â
00:51:52
and they can find a million dollars and lose theirÂ
medical license if they inject the wrong person so Â
00:51:57
i mean you're talking about 16 people per day atÂ
a site when they could be doing a couple hundred Â
00:52:02
i mean it's crazy well johnson and johnson isÂ
coming and that's refrigerator stable right Â
00:52:07
freeberg so you don't even need we now have boughtÂ
1.2 billion but let me go back to freeberg's point Â
00:52:13
about when will life get back to normal i'm notÂ
as pessimistic as you are dave about this idea Â
00:52:18
that life won't go back to normal and part ofÂ
the reason why is i'm seeing so much outrage Â
00:52:22
about school closures right now california isÂ
one of the only states in the country that still Â
00:52:27
completely closed all the schools and people areÂ
absolutely up in arms i'd say it's as big an issue Â
00:52:33
as this exploding crime issue crime is a big issueÂ
in the cities and school closures is the big issue Â
00:52:39
in the suburbs and if these two things don't turnÂ
around i think avenues is going to get recalled i Â
00:52:44
mean people are just on fire about this yeahÂ
but i mean my point was like our our wealthy Â
00:52:50
conservative you know uh friend that livesÂ
in florida was afraid to go do stuff even Â
00:52:57
after he's been vaccinated yeah and i think that'sÂ
what's permeated everywhere it's just like there's Â
00:53:02
free work it's like a shark attack you know ifÂ
there's a shark attack you know at half moon bay Â
00:53:06
or whatever people don't swim there for a coupleÂ
of weeks and then somebody swims and they're like Â
00:53:10
oh the water's great people will jump back in iÂ
think it's april david to your point of when this Â
00:53:14
goes back to normal because if you look now peopleÂ
have been saying freebird correct me if i'm wrong Â
00:53:19
would you put a 5x multiplier on theÂ
confirmed cova cases a 4x multiplier Â
00:53:24
5x i think is the right medium medium so if youÂ
have 30 million people who've had the vaccine Â
00:53:30
uh had covid you're looking at five times that isÂ
150 now you have 60 million people who have been Â
00:53:35
vaccinated we're at 210 there are 330 millionÂ
americans 70 million are under our kids so Â
00:53:40
you know we're basically getting to herdÂ
immunity and if you look at the slopes right now Â
00:53:46
what is causing the drop in cases this massivelyÂ
david is it herd immunity vaccine or are people Â
00:53:52
suddenly wearing masks what is it there'sÂ
complexity because everyone assumes that there's Â
00:53:57
one thing that affects the whole population butÂ
remember the way viruses work is they're hyper Â
00:54:01
local and so the local population dynamics lookedÂ
at on a scale is where you see the statistical Â
00:54:07
results of the scale and so you know we saw thisÂ
in north dakota a bunch of people got really sick Â
00:54:12
they got to herd immunity in communities andÂ
then all of a sudden it dropped off the curve Â
00:54:16
when you zoom out and that's happening combinedÂ
with behavioral changes combined with vaccines Â
00:54:21
then you start to see these statistical thingsÂ
happen at scale so it's not a simple answer but Â
00:54:24
the answer generally can be we are coming downÂ
the slope we are getting to a point of you know Â
00:54:29
general like low case counts low death counts lowÂ
fatality and we should be living a normal life Â
00:54:36
allowing our economy to kind of progress againÂ
um and we're still caught up in this kind of fear Â
00:54:41
fear um let's just do this end on this pick a dateÂ
when you think all four besties are vaccinated Â
00:54:47
i'm gonna say april 1st june june okay what doÂ
you got free break i say april 1st we're all Â
00:54:53
going to be vaccinated it's literally a choice iÂ
mean any one of us could go get vaccinated in the Â
00:54:57
next month i mean how none of us are over 30 bmi iÂ
mean saks was for a minute california's opening 1b Â
00:55:04
a lot of the other states are opening broadly ifÂ
any of you wanted to get on a plane and go get Â
00:55:07
vaccinated somewhere else you could i mean there'sÂ
enough places now that have open vacs or will in Â
00:55:11
the next 30 days you can go get vaccinationsÂ
okay so you say 30 days which would be Â
00:55:15
march 15th or so yeah i think that's a choiceÂ
for the four of us if you guys want to hop on a Â
00:55:19
plane we can go get vaccinated does anybody haveÂ
access to it sorry but doesn't that kind of you Â
00:55:24
you're saying in an open vac state anybody canÂ
show up without proof of advice you have to have Â
00:55:28
a driver's license i've looked into this thereÂ
have been different ways that this has played out Â
00:55:32
but generally speaking there are market forces atÂ
play where you know where there's a will there's Â
00:55:37
a way not saying that you're cutting line andÂ
screwing people over but there are vaccinations Â
00:55:41
that are happening all over the country now withÂ
people that want to get vaccinated by the way Â
00:55:45
in california next week tier one b opens up soÂ
anyone what does that mean what does tier one be Â
00:55:50
it's a total bs definition it is absolutelyÂ
ridiculous i absolutely think this is the Â
00:55:55
biggest waste of time and money ever but tierÂ
one b definition in california is health care Â
00:55:59
work sorry child care workers so anyoneÂ
that's a teacher or works with children Â
00:56:04
uh if your nanny or your daycare uh people um youÂ
know wanted to they could go and get vaccinated oh Â
00:56:10
wait our nanny can get vaccinated starting nextÂ
wednesday in california and so all you need to Â
00:56:15
do is go get to a vaccine with vaccines and byÂ
the way they all a lot of them have vaccination Â
00:56:19
um supply now uh or they will this weekend there'sÂ
apparently big shipment going out um and also all Â
00:56:25
food and agriculture workers loosely defined soÂ
people that work in grocery stores restaurants Â
00:56:30
farm workers you're saying anyone should haveÂ
anyone if you have a chef they can get back to no Â
00:56:35
no i think two people out of four on here mightÂ
have chefs i think two of us definitely don't Â
00:56:39
so so if you take care of your own kids and cookÂ
your own food you can't get vaccinated but if you Â
00:56:45
do that for somebody else you can so wait you'reÂ
saying if you have a chef and you have nannies you Â
00:56:49
get vaccinated no you don't you don't saying isÂ
you yeah if you're a chef or a nanny for someone Â
00:56:55
else you can go get vaccinated next week rightÂ
but david what do you want for dinner i'm coming Â
00:56:59
over right now to make whatever you want i'llÂ
watch your kids this weekend david get me a shot Â
00:57:05
it's so insane we have all these ridiculousÂ
job categories and distinctions it's just Â
00:57:10
like with the lockdown policy they had 10 pagesÂ
of exceptions for essential workers listen if Â
00:57:15
you've got a policy with 10 pages of exceptionsÂ
the policy doesn't make any sense yeah like all Â
00:57:20
the like and this caused all the controversy inÂ
l.a like anyone that works in the movie business Â
00:57:24
is an essential worker but people that workÂ
there's people that work in restaurants and Â
00:57:28
bars they're not let's see this for what it is itÂ
is payoff to doosans political supporters uh the Â
00:57:36
the politicians are using they use essentialÂ
worker exceptions and now they're using vaccines Â
00:57:42
as political capital they dole them out to theirÂ
supporters so that you know in exchange for you Â
00:57:47
know votes down the road also the remember theÂ
exception david if you serve more than seven Â
00:57:53
courses in your prefix you can get a vaccineÂ
so that is the french laundry if you add an Â
00:57:58
amuse booze and an intermezzo you qualify forÂ
the vaccine there are people going to states Â
00:58:04
renting houses and getting driver's licensesÂ
and getting vaccines i know about that's called Â
00:58:11
vaccine tourism by the way think about it this wayÂ
in six weeks i think a lot of those restrictions Â
00:58:16
are gonna fall by the wayside because the supplyÂ
is gonna completely outstrip the nonsensical you Â
00:58:21
know restrictions and prioritization methodsÂ
we put in place and hopefully god willing Â
00:58:26
these idiots who have the ability to vaccinateÂ
people open up their sites 24 7 and drop all Â
00:58:32
the [ __ ] questionnaires and registrationÂ
requirements let people drive in get a shot Â
00:58:37
wait 15 minutes and leave and have just someÂ
basic principled people on site that can take Â
00:58:42
care of people if they have a adverse allergicÂ
reaction and get shots in arms we have the shots Â
00:58:48
we have the supply we're going to be over suppliedÂ
by may we're going to have far more shots than Â
00:58:52
there will be demand and so you know we justÂ
need to get this this kind of nonsense thrown out Â
00:58:57
the window straight to q a this is from uhÂ
vadesh he says where are you investing your money Â
00:59:04
over the next 10 years so friedberg you wantÂ
to start and then we'll go to saks and then
00:59:12
pretty largely uh you know on the podcast iÂ
mean two areas that are super interesting to me Â
00:59:17
that i'm spending a lot of time on is obviouslyÂ
biomanufacturing so the idea that we can kind Â
00:59:23
of move away from traditional animal basedÂ
agriculture and systems of production to systems Â
00:59:29
where we use a genetically engineered microbialÂ
organisms to produce molecules and materials and Â
00:59:36
food and that that that system of production canÂ
have a radical impact on on the environment on Â
00:59:44
the opportunity for jobs on the cost of goodsÂ
and uh and things that humans want and consume Â
00:59:50
and that's that's a primary area of interest forÂ
me and i think it's a multi-decade i think by 2050Â Â
00:59:56
you know we should see um most of our goodsÂ
that are manufactured rather than being made Â
01:00:01
in the traditional sense which is basicallyÂ
old technology scaled up uh which is what Â
01:00:06
the industrial revolution did uh but reallyÂ
shift to a new model of manufacturing where we Â
01:00:11
use a smarter machine which is a gene a biologicalÂ
organism to make stuff so that's my risk sex yeah Â
01:00:17
so i'm i'm focused on the area of bottom up sassÂ
which is basically business software that can go Â
01:00:22
viral uh very much in the mold of yammer whichÂ
is a company i founded and sold back a dozen Â
01:00:29
years ago it was a precursor to slack let's beÂ
honest right it could have been 27 billion but Â
01:00:35
you did not ride your winner you took the quickÂ
billy and that was not a mistake because it lets Â
01:00:41
you invest in the other 20 unicorns correctÂ
kinda i mean so so so oh you do have a chip on Â
01:00:47
your shoulder about selling too early no no noÂ
no it's not a chip i would say that around the Â
01:00:51
time that paypal hit a 200 billion dollar marketÂ
cap and slack had a 27 billion dollar outcome i Â
01:00:57
started realizing you know if i just stuck withÂ
my ideas longer you know i probably would would Â
01:01:03
do better and i'm like you know i don't reallyÂ
need to come up with a new thesis or a new idea Â
01:01:07
i already came up with the idea 12 years ago whichÂ
is to make business software viral i'm just going Â
01:01:11
to keep investing in that thesis so it's not thatÂ
original or new for me but um but but it is you Â
01:01:18
know bottom up has become the i would say almostÂ
the dominant mode now explain that to somebody Â
01:01:24
who doesn't understand what you mean bottom upÂ
yeah so so bottom up means that the entry point Â
01:01:30
for the software is any employee in the companyÂ
they can just start using it they go to your Â
01:01:33
website they start using it they spread to theirÂ
co-workers as opposed to down top down is like the Â
01:01:38
oracle sales guy who carries a bag and goes toÂ
meet with the cio and you know sells them a big Â
01:01:44
expensive implementation that's the and that'sÂ
traditionally what business software used to be Â
01:01:48
is a is a big top down i t sale bottom up is thisÂ
is going in through the rank and file employees Â
01:01:55
all right chamoth poly hoppitya for the nextÂ
10 years where are you putting your money Â
01:02:00
uh two areas uh inequality well it's not evenÂ
10 i would say for the next for the rest of my Â
01:02:06
life um so it's i think these are multi-decadeÂ
but uh inequality and climate change and so um Â
01:02:14
you know the inequality side what does that meanÂ
it's any by the way the second you said inequality Â
01:02:20
and climate change sacks left like heÂ
went to throw up yeah he's like what Â
01:02:26
he's read he went to throw up he's like oh godÂ
here we go there he's back now he's back zach
01:02:46
he just called the security he went and heÂ
kissed his gold bricks that he keeps in his house
01:02:54
no inequality basically means uh anythingÂ
that evens the starting line so they if that's Â
01:02:59
healthcare software that solvesÂ
a chronic condition or if that's Â
01:03:03
financial software that drives inclusion umÂ
and then climate change is pretty obvious but Â
01:03:08
the the panoply of things that we need to do toÂ
basically you know slow the warming of the earth Â
01:03:14
those are the two areas huge opportunitiesÂ
for vadesh if you even care i take a remora Â
01:03:21
like approach um if you don't know whatÂ
a remora is you ever see like a big shark Â
01:03:25
and then there's like a bunch of things stuckÂ
to it and it's like following the shark and it Â
01:03:29
just eats whatever so basically what i do is i'mÂ
getting behind these three guys and i just draft Â
01:03:33
on these three sharks and just try to weasel myÂ
way onto their cap tables it's a it's a living Â
01:03:37
you know basically let's go to the poker gameÂ
and try to no uh in all sincerity i am stay i am Â
01:03:43
vertical agnostic because i think the greatÂ
companies uh make the verticals they create the Â
01:03:48
categories and the categories don't exist at yourÂ
schedule particularly yeah what's that all right Â
01:03:54
yeah and so what i do in the earlyÂ
stages i am focused on the process Â
01:03:58
and the process i'm trying to master here is whatÂ
i do with the syndicate.com which is find great Â
01:04:03
companies and share it with now 7 000 accreditedÂ
investors and let them decide you know how much Â
01:04:10
they want to invest in each deal and just to giveÂ
people an idea we are on a 60 million dollar run Â
01:04:16
rate this year of deploy capital via the syndicateÂ
in other words it'll be four times five times what Â
01:04:22
my fund will do the fund has access to 100 ofÂ
deals but the syndicate has access to 60 roughly Â
01:04:28
so now that we've broken our no advertising roleÂ
no i mean we're all talking our book here let's Â
01:04:32
take another question um and uh angel is availableÂ
from harpercollins business what oh here's a good Â
01:04:41
one by the way if you want to save money onÂ
car insurance metromile.com sorry go ahead Â
01:04:46
absolutely fantastic also the ticker symbolÂ
uh what's the biggest investment venture miss Â
01:04:53
you had early starting out that wouldÂ
have been a ridiculous return what is Â
01:04:58
our anti-portfolio looking like friedberg we'llÂ
start with you and then go check out thingosax Â
01:05:03
i was with um jack dorsey and um in atÂ
this conference and he went around and Â
01:05:11
did a pass of the hat and who wanted toÂ
invest in his new startup called square Â
01:05:16
that's my story what what is that a 50 is thatÂ
a 50 million dollar myth um yeah i'm not going Â
01:05:24
to say it it would have been bad 50k in at 10Â
million but i mean the pro here's by the way Â
01:05:30
an interesting thing going back to this the pointÂ
sacks made earlier and that we've said in the past Â
01:05:35
you know when square went public there was a lotÂ
of questions and trepidation around its valuation Â
01:05:39
big fund managers were poo pooing the company andÂ
what's the market cap of square today sacks you Â
01:05:44
might know 100 120 120 billion wow i mean 125Â
billion today that's incredible right because Â
01:05:52
like when they went public people were kind ofÂ
poo pooing it saying this thing is a this is a Â
01:05:55
sub billion dollar company you know it shouldn'tÂ
be worth anything more than a billion dollars and Â
01:06:00
look at it just a few years later um anyway yeahÂ
i missed it i missed that one on the uh seed round Â
01:06:05
and um and i've just watched with with all whatÂ
you get to innovate as a public company it traffic Â
01:06:12
a four billion dollar valuation it did right itÂ
did like five years ago and so within five years Â
01:06:18
it's gone from 4 billion to 124 billion i was inÂ
a venture capital fund that invested in it they Â
01:06:24
distributed the shares i sold half and i was likeÂ
i'll just keep half i like jack i sold half at 72Â Â
01:06:28
and now it's at 276 and so ride your winnersÂ
folks uh saks anti-portfolio which one is Â
01:06:36
the most painful honestly i haven't missed thatÂ
much to speak okay um unbelievable what a douche Â
01:06:47
well actually um i i analyzed my chess gameÂ
with peter thiel and uh actually my check Â
01:06:54
my castle uh queenside castle was actually aÂ
brilliant move uh if he hadn't pinned by no Â
01:06:58
i mean look i uh i i i ten i i look i don'tÂ
overthink these things too much i mean it's Â
01:07:04
why i'm in like 27 unicorns if the companyÂ
looks good i i invest uh is this phil hellmuth
01:07:19
what would you say your total like multipleÂ
is on all your angel investing like that's Â
01:07:24
not the question saks answer the questionÂ
come on the audience asked what you missed Â
01:07:28
can you just be humble enough to say yeahÂ
yeah no no i'll tell you i'll tell you so Â
01:07:32
this was a sort of a semi miss is that um oh myÂ
god it's not even a mess well here's how i made Â
01:07:38
up for it no no put in half my normal amount noÂ
no let me tell you what happened i did miss it so Â
01:07:43
uh back in 2007 um i thought twitter was goingÂ
to take off i had a like a former employee who Â
01:07:49
wanted to sell secondary and so you know i had aÂ
deal worked out to buy i think a couple hundred Â
01:07:54
thousand dollars of shares at i don't know 40Â
million dollar evaluation or something like that Â
01:07:59
and um we submitted it to the company and thenÂ
they roofered it for because i think chris for Â
01:08:05
chris sacca basically i don't know if you rememberÂ
saka had set up like some secondary secondary Â
01:08:10
thing yeah so yeah the fact that you know i wasn'tÂ
able to complete that transaction probably cost me Â
01:08:16
you know a couple hundred million bucks uh chamathÂ
anti-portfolio what's this i have a huge airbnb Â
01:08:23
portfolio huge robin hood you know airbnb at aÂ
billion obviously i actually did invest i agreed Â
01:08:29
to invest but then i got into a huge public snafuÂ
with with chesky because he was taking a bunch of Â
01:08:33
money off the table and then we ended up not evenÂ
finalizing the investment and your letter was your Â
01:08:38
letter was published your email was leakedÂ
my email was leaked yeah it was leaked so i Â
01:08:43
was really pissed when they did that but anywaysÂ
that was a decade ago not much has changed i guess Â
01:08:48
um there is one thing that above all others whichÂ
is sadly also in my portfolio so my portfolio my Â
01:08:57
andy portfolio is the same thing you can guessÂ
what it is but that's bitcoin at one point Â
01:09:01
you know we controlled low single digits midÂ
single digits of the entire float and had i held Â
01:09:08
on to that that's talking about you know a midÂ
deca billion dollar position so my anti portfolio Â
01:09:16
uh in in the unrealized loss and unrealizedÂ
gains or losses if you will on bitcoin Â
01:09:21
is in the many tens of billions of dollars yepÂ
mine is clearly bitcoin as well because i was Â
01:09:26
reporting on it when it was 10 cents and i wasÂ
one of the first journalists to write about it Â
01:09:30
and talk about it on my podcast and i had likeÂ
maybe 10 of these bitcoins in a wallet of um Â
01:09:36
that was a mount gox and it got hacked and it allÂ
went away and then my wife bought it at under 200Â Â
01:09:43
and so now we have a joke in the house that myÂ
wife is going to because of her incredible trade Â
01:09:49
because she she saw it as well um return moreÂ
on her it's conceivable she'll return more Â
01:09:54
than my entire investing career so shoutÂ
out to jade uh for getting that one um Â
01:09:59
actually i i made that mistake too that's mothÂ
made of not huddling enough long enough so that Â
01:10:05
that is that did you guys see did you see thisÂ
article i i fished this article out but in 2014Â Â
01:10:10
i was buying uh a land at mardis camp in lakeÂ
tahoe and i told the sales guy there jeff hall Â
01:10:17
i said hey listen i'll buy this lot if you letÂ
me buy it in bitcoin because i wanted to promote Â
01:10:22
bitcoin bitcoin as a transactional infrastructureÂ
so we went to a company called bitpay they wired Â
01:10:29
it up and i bought it for 1.6 million dollarsÂ
in bitcoin that was 2 800 coins which right now Â
01:10:36
is worth 140 or 150 million dollars what are youÂ
going to build on that lot are you going i don't Â
01:10:43
you should make it a grave you should make it aÂ
grave plot you should just well my my ex-wife owns Â
01:10:48
a lot i hope you know she enjoys it but i'm sayingÂ
you literally could have bought the next lakers Â
01:10:54
and the warriors and been the majority ownerÂ
in each all right let's take another question Â
01:10:59
what's the number one macro uncertaintyÂ
or risk you guys are most worried about Â
01:11:05
for your investment portfolios there is onlyÂ
one and i think it's inflation but i think Â
01:11:10
it's important to understand where inflation isÂ
coming from the single biggest risk to all of us Â
01:11:15
is what's going to happen in theÂ
following order of operations Â
01:11:20
so i think all of this sort of at the comingÂ
out of the pandemic basically what you're going Â
01:11:25
to have is like four or five major trading blocksÂ
in the world right you have china as a standalone Â
01:11:32
you have europe as a standalone you have americaÂ
slash north america under biden i think it could Â
01:11:37
be more north america as a as a standalone andÂ
then you have these sort of what i would call Â
01:11:42
random you know friends with benefits africaÂ
south america japan korea okay but those are Â
01:11:49
all bit players to these three huge tradingÂ
blocks everybody was going to go and they're Â
01:11:54
going to go and get vertically integrated so itÂ
sort of builds a little bit on what david said Â
01:11:59
like you're not going to have you know one centralÂ
place where you get this thing basically i.e china Â
01:12:05
that you ship on a boat to get over here for aÂ
whole host of reasons national security carbon etc Â
01:12:12
so you can have all these vertically you knowÂ
vertically integrated supply chains and resilient Â
01:12:17
economies you know what that does when you haveÂ
to try to build that stuff prices go screaming Â
01:12:23
higher because instead of having one factory inÂ
china making nine billion iphone cases you have Â
01:12:30
now 50 factories all around the world each withÂ
their own infrastructures and costs and whatever Â
01:12:35
and so i think you're gonna reflate the world umÂ
i don't know when it happens but um that's sort of Â
01:12:41
the biggest risk to all of what we do is that allÂ
of a sudden you know real rates go to like six or Â
01:12:46
seven percent and then all of a sudden you'reÂ
not going to look at a company trading at 50Â Â
01:12:50
times earnings and say um you know you're goingÂ
to you're going to question that so that i think Â
01:12:54
that's the biggest risk that i think friedrichÂ
what's your risk facts what's your risk zach you Â
01:12:59
go ahead yeah so actually mine is pretty similarÂ
to moss which is i think we're accruing these Â
01:13:05
unpayable deficits and debts uh and obligationsÂ
and uh you know all this money has to be paid Â
01:13:12
back at some point uh that the u.s government'sÂ
incurring i mean there's a california version Â
01:13:17
of this where we've accrued a trillion dollars ofÂ
pension obligations that we have no ability to pay Â
01:13:24
so yeah i mean i think that eventually itÂ
translates into inflation but i think it Â
01:13:28
translates into something even worse which is atÂ
some point people become skeptical about loaning Â
01:13:34
money to the us government and the the becauseÂ
they don't want the u.s to just print dollars to Â
01:13:40
pay back these these loans and uh the us dollarÂ
stocks becoming the world's reserve currency Â
01:13:46
i think the reason why we're seeing bitcoin goÂ
to the moon right now is people are starting Â
01:13:50
to speculate on the idea that that this might beÂ
the future world reserve currency because it's not Â
01:13:56
subject to manipulation by by you know umÂ
by central banks and uh and and you know Â
01:14:04
and let's think like that that world looks ifÂ
you think about like a world in which the the Â
01:14:08
us dollar is not the world's reserve currencyÂ
anymore in which the government is basically Â
01:14:13
uh broke i mean that is it's it's pretty scaryÂ
to think about there's a ray dalio who's a um Â
01:14:21
uh famous uh and you know prominent uh hedge fundÂ
founder of bridgewater associates wrote an essay Â
01:14:29
if anyone's interested called the big cycle ofÂ
money credit debt and economic activity you can Â
01:14:34
find it online he published it last year highlyÂ
recommended reading he has a few chapters that Â
01:14:40
that proceed and follow that talks about the grandÂ
macroeconomic cycle of governments and societies Â
01:14:47
and it's really worth the read um i think oneÂ
really basic principled economic point is that Â
01:14:54
governments operate in such a way that their umÂ
their people ask for goods and ask for services Â
01:15:01
um the government spends on those servicesÂ
by borrowing more than they're making in Â
01:15:05
income in that year um and and that is i thinkÂ
the uh you know the premise for a lot of how Â
01:15:10
governments operate around the world the onlyÂ
way that that works over time is if your future Â
01:15:19
shows that that borrowing allowsÂ
you to grow your revenue more Â
01:15:23
and therefore you can underwrite taking on debt toÂ
pay in the future so you force growth and you know Â
01:15:29
i've said this a couple of times before but it isÂ
the most basic principle but it is also the most Â
01:15:33
scary and shocking principle which is the onlyÂ
way you can afford debt is if you have growth Â
01:15:39
and that forces you to find growth and whenÂ
you're forced to find growth you get all of Â
01:15:43
these unnatural perturbations in terms of economicÂ
activity and market forces it is not necessarily Â
01:15:49
the case that things should and would always growÂ
and we force things to always grow because of the Â
01:15:55
mechanism by which we fund our services at aÂ
government level and that is what's basically Â
01:16:01
going to ultimately lead to a lot of differentÂ
types of crises both kind of financial crises but Â
01:16:07
uh but also societal crises in terms of you knowÂ
revolution and and social pushes for socialism and Â
01:16:14
and all the other things that that areÂ
typically associated with things like inflation Â
01:16:18
um and so it is it is the big crisis of the theÂ
21st century will be you know we underwrote growth Â
01:16:24
in the 20th century um and there's a lot of uhÂ
forces that that make kind of you know bring that Â
01:16:31
all to kind of bear this section i see one that'sÂ
maybe a little less acute and a little bit more Â
01:16:36
big picture which is the number of people livingÂ
in democracies in the world as a percentage of Â
01:16:41
population which has been going down uh which ifÂ
you asked anybody they would be pretty shocked to Â
01:16:46
hear but just looking at the percentage ofÂ
humans on the planet not the percentage of Â
01:16:51
countries because the percentage of countries thatÂ
are democracies or you know flawed democracies Â
01:16:56
um is right now at um you know 45 percent and weÂ
have 55 of regimes are authoritarian or hybrid Â
01:17:08
and the population of people living in thoseÂ
is growing so we we have countries that are Â
01:17:12
authoritarian that are growing countries that areÂ
democracies like in europe or or in the west and Â
01:17:17
the u.s canada are declining and or not keeping upÂ
pace in terms of population growth and that is uh Â
01:17:23
i think going to be the the major issue which isÂ
does china win capitalism plus authoritarianism Â
01:17:29
where does democracy plus capitalism work the nextÂ
question i think is super fascinating uh which Â
01:17:35
is what would each of you wish you could teachÂ
every 12 year old right now what a great question Â
01:17:41
chamath uh you want to go first do you haveÂ
something that comes to mind do you need a Â
01:17:44
minute to think about it well it's such a fabulousÂ
question that's a great question there's so many Â
01:17:49
very personal for all of us yeah there's so manyÂ
answers there uh well let's let's workshop it Â
01:17:54
anybody else what comes to mind is very thisÂ
is very tactical okay so i'm sure there's like Â
01:17:59
grander things but just the two things we're notÂ
really teaching are coding and financial literacy Â
01:18:05
and those are like the two big i think omissionsÂ
in the curriculum right now and would be very Â
01:18:11
helpful for for people to learn oh i mean onÂ
that theme i would also then add um like better Â
01:18:19
eating habits um and uh mental health exercisesÂ
um freeburg you got any that come to mind things Â
01:18:29
you want your 12 year old or everybody's 12Â
year old to learn i think the principles of Â
01:18:34
uh biology and how we look i mean again likeÂ
i feel like we underestimate and we don't talk Â
01:18:40
enough about the opportunity and the realityÂ
that is about to hit us like a tidal wave of Â
01:18:46
bioengineering um you know everything in medicineÂ
is moving towards this notion of using biological Â
01:18:53
machines to fix our bodies like not just aÂ
molecule which is the historical way of doing Â
01:18:57
medicine where you find a molecule does somethingÂ
in the body you stick it in you turn into a drug Â
01:19:01
but we are actually on the precipice ofÂ
creating machines biologically engineered Â
01:19:06
or designed cells and proteins that can go intoÂ
your body and do specific things and enhance your Â
01:19:11
your life and improve your health and solve youÂ
know disease similarly like i talked about earlier Â
01:19:15
biomanufacturing to make all the materials andÂ
food in a more sustainable way in a lower cost Â
01:19:21
way and so i think teaching the principles of dnaÂ
how dna causes protein how protein causes function Â
01:19:28
and how cells operate um and and how that isÂ
basically being softwarized and you can basically Â
01:19:35
think about biology now as being softwareÂ
uh i think that is the the trend of um Â
01:19:41
of science and engineering i think computingÂ
created a great foundation but i i think that's Â
01:19:45
really if i were to tell my twelve-year-oldÂ
uh daughter in eight years what she should Â
01:19:50
consider doing um or spending her timeÂ
studying it's bioengineering and and what the Â
01:19:54
opportunities are that are going to arise fromÂ
that uh all great answers i think for me i'll Â
01:20:00
again move it up a level sinceÂ
you guys took some of my answers Â
01:20:04
financial literacy was definitely going to be inÂ
there for me but i would say radical self-reliance Â
01:20:11
and entrepreneurialism and resiliencyÂ
i think a lot of young people right now Â
01:20:15
don't believe that they have agency in theirÂ
lives in the world that they can create stuff Â
01:20:21
that they can not be stopped if they go and doÂ
something and they there's a victim uh mentality Â
01:20:28
and culture that the system is rigged against youÂ
and that you cannot rise above which i understand Â
01:20:32
why people feel that way but i actually think it'sÂ
less true than ever and so we have to basically Â
01:20:37
really remind people that if you are radicallyÂ
self-reliant you can live the american dream Â
01:20:42
you can create anything you want there isÂ
absolutely nobody who can stop you and you know Â
01:20:47
all the knowledge you want to learn is out thereÂ
and so so the in radical self-reliance for me Â
01:20:53
is this concept of the ability to learn and theÂ
ability to learn how to learn and having faith Â
01:20:58
that you can learn any skill you know even 60 70Â
percent you know uh very quickly is what i see uh Â
01:21:05
results in you know people being successful inÂ
life this ability to take on any new topic with Â
01:21:11
a zeal and an understanding that you can masterÂ
it or or even 60 or 70 mastery means something Â
01:21:17
going around the horn we're gonna plan a a bestieÂ
trip and we might even allow besties to come for Â
01:21:22
the first live bestie show what is your voteÂ
i want everybody to type it into the chat room Â
01:21:30
i everybody's going to type in where they mostÂ
want to have a bestie show all right i like it Â
01:21:34
okay so chamath and i both want to go to new yorkÂ
saks wants to go to miami to see keith reboy and Â
01:21:41
peter thiel his besties those are hisÂ
alternate universe besties by the way Â
01:21:45
they won't do a podcast together no ohÂ
my god how great would that podcast be
01:21:52
i think that would be i think you call that theÂ
righties the writings you've got the besties Â
01:21:57
you've got the leasties and you're gonna get theÂ
right i'm starting the leasties it's gonna be me Â
01:22:02
howard lindsen sarah cohn and uh prof g profgt whyÂ
why won't you call it the worsties the worst to be Â
01:22:09
the worst yeah i'm gonna do the worsties just asÂ
a thing i had an idea here's an idea if we want to Â
01:22:14
be the number one podcast freedberg do you haveÂ
any of that molly from your 1999 2000 era i've Â
01:22:21
never i've never done molly i've never done itÂ
sure you just made your own synthesis of it and Â
01:22:26
took it okay great here's how to become the numberÂ
one podcast we all take molly at the start of the Â
01:22:32
podcast and we start the podcast 30 minutes in andÂ
then we see if david sacks could say i love you Â
01:22:41
can i just say we've done more self-referentialÂ
naval gazing [ __ ] on this pod than any other Â
01:22:48
pod and i don't know this is like even worseÂ
than you don't have to listen to it people Â
01:22:52
we may need to spice and vlad nick will need toÂ
edit the [ __ ] out of this and spike it spike it Â
01:22:57
all right boys here we love you boys i love youÂ
besties love you david love you mother david Â
01:23:04
i gotcha love we upgraded the david's by the wayÂ
with their outrage and cantankerous firmware which Â
01:23:11
we saw from friedberg when he threatened to quitÂ
the podcast over the publishing of the robin hood Â
01:23:15
no that's why we added the thirst strap featureÂ
set that's why he went to throbbing and pulsating Â
01:23:21
he was just throbbing and pulsing we'llÂ
see you know we have time on the all-in-one Â
01:23:26
let your winners ride rain man david
01:23:46
besties Â
01:23:57
we should all just get aÂ
room and just have one big Â
01:23:59
huge orgy because they're all just useless it's
01:24:10
we need to get back i'm going on
