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hey everybody hey everybody welcome to
another episode of all in the podcast
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episode eight besties are here to talk
about tech economy politics the election and
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our lives in silicon valley uh welcome back to the
pod david friedberg the queen of quinoa is here
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from an undisclosed j kell always always a joy
yes undisclosed location somewhere in the midwest
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you you bailed on sf after the smoke you
lasted how many days into the barbecue into the
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orange cloud i left on the wednesday of the orange
cloud and uh took it was crazy took my kiddos and
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we're uh we're waiting at the fires in the uh in
the midwest well it's beautiful the last two days
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here uh also from an undisclosed bestie location
david sacks back on the program rain man is here
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yep definitely here good to be here all right
well there you go man of many words and speaking
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of a man of many words off of seven keynotes this
week talking about spax the uh prince of spacks
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chamoth paulie happened back on the pod how are
you besties well we had a little bestie reunion
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which i think we can talk about your mouth invited
us over to have an outdoor bestie reunion yeah
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and you gave one of them gonorrhea and you gave
the other two well we it it's crazy to say but
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i literally had to call chamoth uh two or three
days after he hosted ah so a socially by the way a
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socially distanced dinner outdoors social distant
dinner outdoors wonderful we had some great ribeye
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fantastic uh cracked open a nice bottle or two of
wine and the pork and but but then what did you do
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well then a family member of mine who shall
remain nameless decided to go to a party
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in san francisco and possibly got the rona and he
tested positive and then i had to get everybody in
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my house tested twice everybody came back negative
but i had to call chamoth and tell him listen
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i i wasn't exposed but some members of my family
were therefore i might have second hand exposure
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i took two tests came back negative two times
in a row can i just say though it's really
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crazy like we have to develop all these new
social norms and you're not sure what to say
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and you're not you're not sure how to react and
it's like it's it must have been like when you
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know you got a call and it's like hey listen uh uh
you know your girlfriend's like i may be pregnant
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or like you know somebody's like hey listen i have
an std like you just like what i felt like that
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when i was texting the good child there's like
three of us and i had to text with my tail between
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my legs i think i've been exposed i'm really sorry
guys i think calcanus is the greek word for turd
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and the punch bowl you know it's all yeah it's so
yeah exactly i don't know if we can tell the the
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code 13. oh i'm going to tell the code 13 story
i wasn't even there but i think there's legendary
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jason jason jason calcanis gets invited by david
sacks out of his benevolence to come to stay uh
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in hawaii at the four seasons and uh at somewhere
some point during this week-long vacation
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christmas day you hear a shout from the pool
from the lifeguard no no it was it was even
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before that we were sitting at the bar so me and
jason and his brother-in-law were sitting at the
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bar having drinks and all of a sudden there's a
commotion and the bartenders and the staff and
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you started hearing people on walkie-talkies
saying code 13 code 13. and people are running
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people right we don't we don't know what to
make of that we think it's a terrorist attack
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i mean literally the four seasons is
on a high alert alarms are going off
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and then and then we hear okay well we were
like we said to the bartender well what's the
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code 13 and he's like well it means that
some kid you know uh crapped in the pool
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did a number two in the pool and we're like you
know and then and we're like okay well you know
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it was jason's kids well so then then i started
hearing something about like the sax kids and
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i'm like oh no sax code 13th yeah they thought it
was us and then it turns out it was it was jacob's
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kid and we were we were never able to get a a a
reservation but they have this again well what's
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so funny is like i i've been i went there at one
point a few years later and it's a whole ordeal
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because they said so how do you guys deal with
like you know a code 13 they're like oh go 13.
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you have to evacuate the whole hotel half the
island gets sent away here's what had to happen
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this is on just to put the code 13 in perspective
i i think my ten-year-old at the time was two
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years old my sister-in-law takes the baby in the
pool without telling anybody and the baby's not
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wearing a swim diaper and so basically a snickers
bar floats out of the and there's the snickers bar
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in the pool and you guys have kids you know how
big these things could get you're like how is that
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possible that uh you know like a movie theater
size snicker king-size snicker pool is floating in
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the middle but this is on december 25th these poor
people are spending three thousand dollars a night
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there is not a single chase lounge by the pool
that's not occupied it is peak capacity at the uh
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four seasons hotel on the big island or wherever
it was the pool has to be shut down for four hours
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a person has to get in with the hazmat suit
retrieve the snickers bar king-sized snickers
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has to get out of here then they have to throw in
every chemical known to man so much so that the
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pool is ruined for christmas day and that's the
code 13 story all right getting back to our topics
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tick tock is on the verge of being banned from
additional us downloads the commerce department
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has announced that will ban u.s downloads
and business transactions with tick-tock
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and wechat somehow wechat got pulled into this
on sunday this will um seemingly we're going to
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allow tick-tock to operate until november 12th
so they got a little bit of a stay of execution
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uh but of course if they can't update in the
app store that means there could be any security
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vulnerabilities that get found between now and
then would not be able to be updated and stephen
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attempting uh to push through a tick tock deal uh
that'll enable retaining some chinese ownership um
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and there's some sort of agreement now
with oracle will have some kind of an
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oversight board uh to do continuous third party
audits what does this say uh chamath about
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uh where we're at and do you believe that you know
a democratic uh leader let's say obama or biden
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uh would have taken the same approach here does
it worry you that the government's getting this
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involved or is this inspiring that the
government's putting their foot down and
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saying hey listen uh we're gonna need to have some
basic level of reciprocity from china if we're
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gonna allow you in our app sir you know i think i
think it's kind of like um you know like if you've
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ever been driving someplace with your significant
other and they're like turn left and you're like
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no no i'm gonna turn right and then you realize
you should have turned left but then you keep
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turning right a few more times then you take
a couple more lefts but then you end up at the
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the same place but it was complete [ __ ] dumb
luck um i feel like we're going to end up in the
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same place here with tiktok which is that i think
that the trump administration probably is doing
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this and donald trump specifically probably
does this more as a demonstration of power
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and you know american exceptionalism which
i'm not sure is the right reason to do it but
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i think the outcome is right which is that um
you know for years china has essentially been
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shut out to american companies unless you
effectively just count out to these guys
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um and you know some companies have and some
companies like you know google have not and
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other companies like facebook have been totally
basically blocked from entering and so i think
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it's completely right it's it's it's unfair to
have the asymmetric market advantages that that
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chinese companies have had and so you have to
play hardball to create a different set of rules
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and i think this probably gets us to that place
the reason why it's happening is probably more
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because the tick tock people played that joke
on trump at the tulsa rally if you had if i had
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to guess yeah uh what do you think friedberg is
this a good sign for america and the globe that
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you know in the democratic nations of the world
that we're going to put a foot down with china and
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say hey some reciprocity or you're not going to be
able to participate in our marketplace or is this
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a personal vendetta from trump or a little bit
of both i don't see how it's um anything but uh
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a slippery slope forward in the escalation
of um you know what's gonna be kind of
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transpiring between these two nations in the
the next couple of years and maybe decades
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you know this goes back to the you know early
2000s when google and others wanted to enter
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china and china has for those who don't know china
has this great firewall right the chinese citizens
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can't openly access the rest of the internet and
china wanted to censor content and sensor um what
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their citizens are accessing um and so there's
been a back and forth between the tech industry
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and china uh going back almost 20 years now to
try and figure out how we can bring our services
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to china and then china launches a service that's
very successful in the us in tiktok and um i think
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it's just a you know a part of the reciprocity
equation which doesn't resolve anything it only
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escalates things so it's unfortunate but it's just
kind of another step in the path that i think is
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inevitable in front of us here saks uh we'll give
you the the final word here uh is this a good
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thing for humanity for international relations
that china is you know having a little bit of
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a hand check here like hey there's going to
be a limit to how you can operate in the west
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uh or is this a personal vendetta from
trump and then what do you see going forward
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um it's it it's true that i mean first of all our
social networks are not allowed over there so i
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don't think we need to feel bad about um you know
not allowing their social networks over here but
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besides reciprocity or the lack of it um i think
the deeper reason for this is just around data
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security and and how the you know and i think the
the the ccp has given us adequate grounds here
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to ban not just tick tock but you know apps
like that um because president xi himself
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declared this policy of civil military
fusion which means that any business
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in china any business asset there including data
can be appropriated to serve the the ends of the
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chinese military or the communist party and you
know the the ccp has set up this vast surveillance
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apparatus over its own citizens it's um
asserted um extra territorial sovereignty over
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former chinese citizens with meaning dissidents um
so that the chinese diaspora anywhere in the world
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they've asserted sovereignty over that and um
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you know recently there was a pretty remarkable
speech by the fbi director christopher wray
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describing you know operation uh foxhunt which is
the chinese effort to track down and presumably
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ultimately punish chinese distance anywhere in the
world and as part of that that the chinese have
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sort of weaponized ai and social media and so
uh he also described i mean this is like pretty
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amazing i didn't you know that the the equifax
hack which collected data on something like sense
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of data over 100 million americans the chinese
were behind that um i didn't know that and um
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so you know it's it's true it's true that
you know no one piece of data poses uh
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by itself a risk to to to the security of
of america or americans but it's sort of the
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systematic collection and aggregation of the data
and the hacking uh collectively that i do think
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pose a security threat and um and i think you got
to stop right there zach actually an individual's
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data could absolutely be compromised if they have
access to your uh passwords because through the
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clipboard they have access to your phone role if a
young person had photos that were say compromising
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in their photo role the phone is you know
basically given access to that they upload that
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now you could use that as compromise against a
senator's child or against a senator themselves
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and this seems like an abstract thing but this is
exactly what the chinese and russians have been
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doing for a very long time if you've seen the
series the americans and you go back to the 80s
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to see the weaponization of you know somebody who
is in the closet who was gay during that time or
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somebody was having extramarital affair you could
compromise anybody with just sexual compromise
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and you hear we're giving access to hundreds of
millions of people's photo libraries by the way
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clipboards by the way you just said something
that's really scary which is like if you're
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if you're the chinese and you know they
have the patience to play the long game
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uh you just aggregate and collect this thing
for 30 years on the off chance that one of
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these people becomes important i mean what is
the reason you got a manchurian candidate just
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you you just surveilled 300 million americans
and just say uh you know what we'll take our
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shot i mean it's going to cost us a few billion
dollars a year in storage who cares yeah i'm not
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like is is there really a case that what they're
doing in the tick tock app i don't know how much
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you guys have read um some of the studies on on
what they are actually pulling but is there really
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a case that what they're pulling is particularly
different than what would be pulled by pretty much
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any other social app or photo sharing app on your
phone there was some you know kind of insight that
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hey they were capturing the mac address but that
was up until last november after november they
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the app kind of refreshed and stopped doing that
and it was a hack that some number of apps out
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there were already doing but my understanding is
the way that they've built the app it's the same
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kind of ad tracking type um approach that a lot
of apps are taking i i think i think it's a naive
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position that because we haven't caught them doing
something nefarious that they aren't actually
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doing something nefarious right now if you look
at what uh mbs did to jeff bezos sending that um
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i guess it was a movie file or an image that
then wound up hacking his wechat and his phone
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like yeah i think they've built the
software i think it's purpose-built
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uh whether it's wechat or tick-tock to have these
back doors there's no way the chinese government
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is not influencing that guys look if you if you
had to bet david um what do you think the odds are
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between 0 and 100 with 100 being absolute
certainty that there are foreign national spies
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that work at google facebook amazon microsoft
that's my point it's is it i mean look i think
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that there are no but do you think it's 100 oh
of course it's a hundred yeah i think at every
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one of them it's probably a hundred percent
yeah at least one you know foreign national
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that has a connection to intelligence in china
yeah it's probably a hundred percent 100 so my
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point is tick tock is 100 chinese 100 chinese
so you don't even have to guess whether it's
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my point is like if if if there is some
you know access to personal data that
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we're all concerned about being compromised
at literally every other [ __ ] app company
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yeah every other app is not connected to you know
but the point that champ just made is that they
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very well could be the fact is we as individuals
have exposed all of our personal and private data
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to six or seven companies i think you're saying
it'd be a really right thing it is a this is a
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canary in the coal mine for a bigger issue this
is why i'm saying i think that you know trump
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is probably acting out of an expression of power
but i think what we're realizing is actually this
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is about core fundamental privacy and the safety
and security of each of us as individuals and it
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should start a bigger conversation like privacy
i i really do think this privacy is the killer
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feature of the 2020s right um you know what
david just said about like you know if you're
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if you're a chinese ex-national the idea that
you're like look i've been a citizen of three
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countries the idea that the sri lankan government
all of a sudden may not like what i have to say
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and can spy on me or you know root my phone or
steal my data it really disturbs me like uh i'm
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sorry but no go [ __ ] yourself like i left that
country for a reason yeah so i think i think the
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republican to watch on this as well besides trump
i guess is uh there's a senator josh hawley who
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is um crazy well he's he he's sort of a critic of
of big tech and i think he's got some interesting
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things to say but but in this particular area
he is proposing legislation to regulate the
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types of information that can be collected by
applications that are based in countries that
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are fundamentally hostile or adversarial to the us
and that to me seems like the right policy because
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you know it's not just about tick tock it's about
all the apps that collect information on americans
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that can be appropriated by you know the chinese
communist party or russia or iran places like
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that and so i think we need a more holistic
policy here than just banning tiktok and it
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may not be necessary to ban tiktok if you had the
right limitations placed on them but um but but
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but i i do think this this this whole um sort of
compromise solution with larry ellison and oracle
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that makes no sense to me this idea that you know
ellison will own 20 of the company but nothing
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else really changes it'll still be based in china
uh a chinese company they'll still be chinese
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engineers based in china who you know and they
still own 80 of it i mean how how does that really
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address the the data center don't you don't you
think david that that's just basically a way of
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just it's a wealth transfer to larry ellison
which i think is amazing i mean if i could totally
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do it yeah it's bite dance it's no it's it's it's
it's put it in your lap yeah no it's bite dance
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it's bite dance paying political protection
money to larry ellison to be their bodyguard
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in this political process but and i but that's
why i don't think it's going to fly i mean holly
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has already said that it's not good enough for him
and so even if i think and it doesn't live up to
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trump's stated criteria even though he seems
to be this is ultimately a syphilis ruling
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sex is that who's going to make the final call
on this or does uh trump have sole executive
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kind of authority on on foreign security
on security grounds to kind of block it
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does it go to cypheus i don't know that's a
good question i think syphilis disapproves
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um m a right it has to it has to approve it
yeah i mean so you're right i mean there are
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there are members of congress that are all going
to need to be convinced to get this thing done
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well but cepheus approves mna i didn't think they
could like block applications as of last year
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as of last year every investment um triggers
cyphus it's it's a weird new thing that happened
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uh i was involved in a company recently that
seemed secondary to the national security
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power that that trump may have so this is almost
like a two-tier kind of thing one is to approve
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one is for um you know for trump to be cool with
it uh national security terms and then second is
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the anti-trust issues if we just go back a
second talking about the broad you know as
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chamoth called it kind of this canary in a coal
mine you know i don't know how many of you guys
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use an amazon echo or a google home or amazon fire
tv or a nest thermostat every every single every
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single one of them has ambient audio listening
on it every single one of them even and another
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thing people don't realize is every speaker is
actually a microphone as well as a speaker you
00:19:32
can actually listen on any house speaker whether
it's a sonos device or what have you and so we've
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got uh you know our homes are already wired um
amazon fire tv runs on [ __ ] android um i mean
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there's a hundred ways into your home as it is
it seems to me like there's a significant concern
00:19:51
about how much data we are already exposing that's
being highlighted here i don't think that there's
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you know it's sort of like playing uh that where
you try and pop the hamsters in the game it's like
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at some point we're gonna realize these things
are here everywhere and it's not just a company
00:20:06
but it is how we are living our lives now and how
technology is kind of um capturing every piece of
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information about everything we do this is this
is i go back to this somebody will take this or
00:20:16
many people will take this and run with it but i
think that there is an enormous amount of money
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um that consumers will pay for the assurance of
anonymity and privacy i don't really know how it's
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expressed david but like you know for example like
if i could get a phone that was completely locked
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down and encrypted and um like a burner phone
is what you're talking about and like a lot of
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people are now doing this they take a second
phone they put vp vpns are the or the first
00:20:49
step right and you're seeing like i tried i'm very
popular well like i try to use signal i try to use
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facetime audio i'll even use whatsapp now
just because these things are intend encrypted
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and i have nothing particularly important or
interesting to say or hide um but i just don't
00:21:06
like the idea that in the in the open wild um i'm
ju i just feel very vulnerable to data breaches
00:21:13
more than any other kind of breach i mean i had
this conversation with somebody that was you know
00:21:18
sort of helping me lock down uh my wi-fi network
you know and for a long time i only had one end
00:21:24
point and all of a sudden he's like look let's
have a home and a guest but in that conversation
00:21:30
what he was saying is um the the biggest
form of theft isn't like burglaries anymore
00:21:36
it's basically people just having packet sniffers
outside your house um because they can get access
00:21:41
to everything and anything and can i ask you can
i ask you a question there's a there's a book
00:21:46
by a guy named steven baxter was a science fiction
book from years ago and arthur clark called
00:21:50
the light of other days and these guys developed
wormhole technology they could put it in any house
00:21:55
and they could see and listen to everything and
suddenly the technology became kind of ubiquitous
00:21:59
so everyone could create a wormhole anywhere
and see and hear everything so effectively
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information was completely transferable and free
and available to everyone and the book kind of
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highlights how society changed in that context
so in a world where you see where everyone is
00:22:13
and what everyone is doing and saying there's
no longer any notion of information asymmetry
00:22:18
and the way people operate and behave changes
because so much of our life is dependent on people
00:22:22
not knowing things about us that we know so when
you're when your employee is going to go interview
00:22:26
for another job and they tell you they're going
to the dentist you can say like hey that's not
00:22:30
true and the guy says you know what i'm actually
thinking about looking for another job because i
00:22:33
hate working for you you suck so everyone starts
changing kind of how they behave do you think that
00:22:37
50 years from now that's where the world heads
do you really think it's possible to stop this
00:22:42
train in its tracks and not end up in a world of
what i would call kind of like hyper transparency
00:22:48
where all information becomes kind of because it's
already being collected everywhere about everyone
00:22:52
and it's only i think it's rising exponentially
people are going to start i i think that
00:22:57
people are going to start turning their homes
into like those skiffs you know sensitive
00:23:01
compartmented information facilities you always
hear about like senators going into the skiff kind
00:23:06
of situation for private stuff i think like people
are going to start taking this very seriously as
00:23:10
they get compromised you know time after time and
embarrassing and uh you can see with apple making
00:23:16
it their marketing strategy apples you don't think
society changes oh i think it's already changed
00:23:21
already with like people getting their phones
hacked and they're you know nudes being leaked
00:23:26
people normalize that i think it makes the world
a much shittier place because it basically robs
00:23:33
us of our own independence and our fundamental
right to privacy and i just think that's a really
00:23:41
bad outcome and so you know what like i if if like
the need for likes uh and tweets uh and followers
00:23:50
uh leads me to a place where i lose privacy
i would just say shut them all down now
00:23:54
um because i think that people's self-worth is
much bigger than what they understand it to be
00:23:59
if they're willing to make that trade-off but yeah
most people appreciate that well i i i would also
00:24:06
i would also just add that just because there's
more transparency doesn't mean that it serves the
00:24:12
interests of truth like jason said earlier um this
information can be used to create you know ops you
00:24:18
know and right manipulate and um you know it's um
and so um yeah i don't you know it look like like
00:24:27
trotsky said just because you're an artist in war
doesn't mean war isn't interested in you i mean
00:24:32
this data can be collected to run operations
on people uh that don't serve you know the
00:24:38
interests of greater transparency i think i
think people don't think from first principles
00:24:43
on this topic this is sort of like the idiotic
orthodoxy of silicon valley which is like they
00:24:48
they wrap themselves in the flag of transparency
like it means something but they have no
00:24:52
real idea what it really means at scale and at
the limit and right you know there's one thing
00:24:57
about getting access to a [ __ ] looker dashboard
who cares you know and but the word transparency
00:25:03
is used for that the same way that it's used
for david exactly what you just said and there
00:25:07
are two completely different things they have
completely different meanings and uh the latter's
00:25:12
implications are so much more important and we
need to think about this from first principles
00:25:16
because i think people's inherent identity as
human beings ultimately gets put at risk over
00:25:24
time it should absolutely be the case that these
social networks or anybody collecting data gives
00:25:29
an op this is the way i would form the legislation
if you are running a service like facebook twitter
00:25:34
google for free and you're monetizing through
advertising you must provide an option like what
00:25:49
service to advertising services then
i think you should be forced to give a
00:25:56
option for whatever the amount of
that monetization is a year to pay
00:26:00
us a subscription so for example if facebook
makes 80 dollars per person you lost you lost
00:26:07
this uh monetization jason sorry i think let's
it's it's over it's over next segment next time
00:26:20
all right well just as we wrap up here on
this segment kevin's sister might uh he's
00:26:24
in the running apparently to take over for tick
tock uh is that a good idea uh saks i think you
00:26:28
know a system i i think it's a pretty it's it's a
dumb idea unless the company literally becomes an
00:26:35
american company i don't know why you've made
this point in the context of kevin mayer like
00:26:41
if if if he's working for bite dance he's
working for the by dance board directors which
00:26:46
reports the ccp it's just why would someone
who's in his position want to sacrifice his
00:26:52
independence to do that yeah it makes no
sense i mean that's this is becoming the big
00:26:56
test on everybody's moral compass especially
hollywood which is changing the ending of movies
00:27:02
to satisfy the ccp like literally the people who
are the biggest virtuous signals in the world
00:27:07
celebrities hollywood china china knows how to use
its market access we don't we just threw open our
00:27:13
markets to their products uh which caused you
know us to lose our whole you know industrial
00:27:20
you know manufacturing capacity we didn't
demand anything really in exchange for that
00:27:25
whereas in order to get access to china
you have to say and do the right things or
00:27:30
certainly to to not criticize them and so they
they know how to use as we saw with the mba and
00:27:36
the whole um daryl mori thing um you know they
know how to use their market access all right
00:27:43
well let's go on to the economy here we've been
sheltering in place uh essentially for six months
00:27:49
and now people are starting to talk about
hey maybe we need to do another lockdown
00:27:56
and obviously this uh economic challenge
is being felt very differently in some
00:28:03
places it's an opportunity obviously
a lot of people with sas software and
00:28:09
you know people who work behind keyboards
are having a renaissance and a lot of the
00:28:13
economy is pouring into their keyboards while
restaurants retail and anybody who has to work
00:28:19
in the real world is part of what's becoming
essentially a permanent unemployed class that
00:28:27
perhaps is starting to look like a dry one of ubi
what are your thoughts chamoth on this permanent
00:28:34
unemployment situation um i i have a i have a
bunch of thoughts here let me just go kind of give
00:28:39
you the stream of consciousness like um jerome
powell gave a speech i think it was two or three
00:28:44
weeks ago in jackson hole um and he basically
said like look the federal reserve is taking a
00:28:49
completely new posture on rates and um you know
they they basically clarified that in explicit
00:28:55
detail just um uh just a few days ago uh and they
basically said we're keeping rates where they are
00:29:02
until at least 2023. you know my personal views
for rates are going to stay basically at zero
00:29:07
for the next half decade and i think it's probably
pretty likely that we're going to see rates stay
00:29:12
at zero probably a full decade so what does that
mean okay well a typical recession what happens
00:29:22
is you don't know where the bottom is right things
sort of sort of decay they get a little bit worse
00:29:27
they get a little bit worse they get a little bit
worse then things bottom out and then you know you
00:29:32
start to grow and you can use interest rate policy
to kind of help navigate how soft the landing is
00:29:37
as well as how fast the recovery is that's sort
of like classic economics and how bankers and the
00:29:43
markets and all these folks used to work and it
eventually would trickle into main street now we
00:29:48
just have none of those things we have rates zero
they're not going to go anywhere they're not going
00:29:52
to go up they're probably not going to go down
they're going to kind of just stay where they are
00:29:56
that's one thing second is we priced
in the bottom which was the first
00:29:59
month of the coronavirus we took the markets
basically assuming oh there's no growth
00:30:03
and now we've priced things back as if they'll
recover the rating agencies are out to lunch
00:30:08
they've basically said you know what i'm going
to look out till 2021 or 2022 give me a reason
00:30:14
to justify not to downgrade you so that you can
continue to raise more debt which by the way is
00:30:21
free um so you have all these dynamics where i
think the capital markets are in an expansive
00:30:28
mood and an expansive mode and in that i actually
think there's a real bid to uh employment because
00:30:36
there isn't really that many ways now you can
without just getting completely ripped apart
00:30:44
put money to work and so the the the real
earnest capital allocation strategy that's
00:30:48
left for most ceos is to actually buy
things invest in things try more things
00:30:53
and all of those i think lead to net employment
so in general i'm kind of constructive and bullish
00:30:58
and i don't think that this idea that
there's a permanent unemployment class
00:31:02
sticks around freeberg what are your thoughts
obviously a lot of americans work in retail
00:31:07
um you know we obviously uh have all these
restaurant workers who are out of work and
00:31:13
travel is uh now hitting the end of the
furloughs at a lot of these um different
00:31:20
arrow lines et cetera what's your thought
on this unemployment middle america
00:31:25
catastrophe well i don't think um happiness
comes from you know absolute standards of living
00:31:34
i think happiness arises from one's relative
standard of living whether that's relative to
00:31:40
how you lived last year or how you're living
relative to your neighbor and and seeing some
00:31:45
progression over time is the only thing that
keeps people happy it's otherwise society decays
00:31:51
so the notion of some sort of flatlined
or even flatlined and inflation-adjusted
00:31:57
uh basic income level for a large number
of people will inevitably result in kind
00:32:02
of what we're trying to prevent which is
you know some sort of decay societal decay
00:32:07
we have to resolve the the opportunity framework
for people which is how do you give people an
00:32:12
opportunity to kind of progress in their lives and
earn more over time and have access to you know
00:32:17
doing more with themselves while they're here on
planet earth i mean that's just what humans need
00:32:21
so um you know maybe there's a short-term fix but
i think we've got some structural things to fix to
00:32:28
kind of enable opportunities and and give people
kind of an inherent uh you know kind of stepladder
00:32:38
in life i heard a really dark theory a few years
ago which is if we do this we're going to resolve
00:32:42
to a world where we're going to have a bunch
of people playing video games because then the
00:32:46
only way you can get people to feel like they're
progressing in their lives is to give them more
00:32:50
medals on their video games and give them a higher
ranking and score and that's where society kind of
00:32:55
gets to to kind of keep people psychologically
kind of satiated and it's a pretty dark you know
00:33:01
sad place if that's where we end up it's like
a bad episode of black mirror but we've had a
00:33:05
few episodes of black mirror this year so you
know it sounds like ready player one uh with
00:33:09
a masters were playing video games instead
of actually going out in the world totally
00:33:14
sax what what's your thought on you know just the
next two years let's say and how this all shakes
00:33:20
out and this will give us a good segue into the
coronavirus and where we stand right now with this
00:33:26
potential second lockdown and the impact
that might have psychologically on people
00:33:30
and also on the economy there's not going to be a
second lockdown it doesn't make any sense and even
00:33:36
if there were people aren't going to support it
certainly any of the red states aren't going to do
00:33:42
it i guess the blue states may they still haven't
you know sort of unlocked down so maybe that gets
00:33:48
more protracted in places like california but um
but it we're not going to go back into lockdowns
00:33:53
and people won't support and i think the thing
that we basically figured out that should have
00:33:57
been obvious months ago now is that um coronavirus
is really like two different diseases in terms of
00:34:03
its effects on on people so for elderly people and
for people with risk factors it's very dangerous
00:34:10
you know i'm very worried about my parents and
you know for people in that group they have
00:34:14
to take you know extreme precautions but for
young healthy people without risk factors it's
00:34:20
um it's not been that deadly it's it's
very unpleasant it's a very bad two weeks
00:34:25
but you know for example if you look at the
data now on uh on colleges coming back there's
00:34:32
been some reports that the virus is spreading
like wildfire on college campuses that's true
00:34:36
but hospitalizations and and deaths have not gone
up and so because it's just not that um it's just
00:34:42
not that deadly to to to younger people and so
i think this idea of shutting down the whole
00:34:47
economy to protect people at risk is just seems
like overkill and i think if we had to do it all
00:34:53
over again we wouldn't have done lockdowns we
just would have protected at risk people we've
00:34:58
still consistently had a thousand deaths a day we
thought this might go down what are your thoughts
00:35:04
on americans just being okay with that um that
basic death toll sex well i mean any deaths
00:35:12
is is obviously bad and tragic and um you know
and statistically there are going to be people
00:35:19
who who die even who are in the you know lowest
group so for sure but you know but we've had about
00:35:24
200 000 deaths the original estimates from
this virus were two to three million so um it's
00:35:32
i guess my point is not that it's not bad but
it's you know but that it's um you know much less
00:35:39
deadly than i think was originally thought
there's an argument that that's not
00:35:42
deaths directly attributable to coronavirus right
and that um the vast majority of of those folks
00:35:48
had co-morbidities and that you know the primary
driver this is an argument many have made i'm not
00:35:54
gonna take a strong point um but you know
85 percent plus of folks have significant
00:36:00
comorbidities um and you know this virus may be um
kind of has a contributing factor to their death
00:36:08
but if let's assume everyone in the united states
had coronavirus today then every death that was
00:36:15
reported today would be reported as a coronavirus
death um and so they're testing a lot of folks um
00:36:21
uh you know in the hospital finding that they have
coronavirus it's un you know it's very difficult
00:36:26
to then prove that the reason that they died or
the sole reason that they died was coronavirus
00:36:31
if you had to pick a percentage free bird where
would you put it half of all the deaths if you
00:36:35
just guess but that's my point is i don't think
it's one thing right i'm not sure that it's
00:36:40
someone goes into the hospital with coronavirus
and they've also got severe diabetes heart
00:36:45
disease cancer they're on chemotherapy i mean you
could list the other things that they might have
00:36:50
what caused their death you know you can't as a
coroner it's very difficult to say this one thing
00:36:55
caused the death but when they test that person
and they find that their chronovirus positive
00:36:59
their that number is now being counted in the
statistics that say that was a coronavirus death
00:37:03
that day and coronavirus is so prevalent in the
united states right now it's such a significant
00:37:08
part of the population it's also very difficult to
say hey guys like you know these deaths are so i'm
00:37:14
not trying to belittle the fact that people are
absolutely dying and they wouldn't have died if
00:37:18
not for coronavirus that is absolutely happening
but it's very difficult to say what is the net
00:37:24
effect on life right now uh we're still learning a
lot about how this virus interacts with different
00:37:28
people based on their genetics and based on their
disease state and and other factors let me ask you
00:37:34
one more way for you free burger then i'll give
it over to chemoth which is freeberg and your
00:37:39
estimation as a scientist and somebody who's a
i would say a man of science on the call here uh
00:37:45
are you optimistic about us coming out of
coronavirus in 2021 and what's your best outlook
00:37:52
for a return to normalcy if you had to pick a time
when it feels like we can go to a warriors game or
00:37:58
play cards regularly or go to the world series of
poker wendy do you have a a time period where you
00:38:03
think that could possibly happen it's all politics
and social behavior it has nothing to do with
00:38:08
science like after 9 11 there were no more serious
like terrorist attacks on the united states but
00:38:13
our [ __ ] lives changed dramatically we go sit
in tsa lines and you know get our asses swabbed
00:38:18
when we get on an airplane now and that's still
going on 20 years later so i'm i'm pretty sure
00:38:23
there's a lot of change that's here to stay in the
u.s because of coronavirus and will be even after
00:38:28
everyone gets vaccines and the deaths drop below
10 a day and yada yada so um yeah i'm i'm not
00:38:34
convinced that this is like hey here's the date
we're all going to be out of it and then we're
00:38:38
safe because people are psychologically scarred
behavior has changed businesses have changed the
00:38:43
landscape of how we work as a society has changed
and that's not going away so it's it's it's not
00:38:47
like we're going to go back i think it's like
we're going forward into a different world where
00:38:51
we operate differently much is what happened after
9 11. what's your take on that shamath i think
00:38:56
that uh david's right that you know were it but
for coronavirus i think a lot of these people that
00:39:02
died would still be alive and so you know i don't
think it really matters how much of the blame
00:39:07
we're trying to ascribe to it it's just that it
was a meaningful non-trivial contributing factor
00:39:13
so these deaths are avoidable and we have to deal
with that the second is i don't think what we
00:39:18
know what the peak to trough looks like because we
haven't really gone through a real full-blown flu
00:39:23
season yet you know coronavirus came to america
at the tail end of the winter and it's going to be
00:39:33
i think tough to figure out what it's going
to do in october november december january or
00:39:37
february when it's really cold in many parts of
the united states and you know whatever effects
00:39:42
again we still don't know it in totality but
whatever effects the warm weather had in muting
00:39:47
it or whatever mutation muted it may change so
i tend to think it's another 18 to 24 months
00:39:54
of this posture but freedberg is really right
which is like this is what's so sad which is
00:40:00
when you could point a finger and look at somebody
and say you you're the cause it was much easier to
00:40:07
react and create rules and create boundaries as
uncomfortable or as inconvenient as they were and
00:40:13
live by them and because this is more nameless
and faceless it's impossible um so all right
00:40:21
well here's some good news i was able to acquire
uh i've been on a little investigative journalism
00:40:27
kick asking people if they have access to rapid
testing uh kits i.e they have them in korea and
00:40:33
i was able to get and i'm curious your thoughts
on this friedberg the rapid response liberty
00:40:39
coven 19 igg igm test cassettes and they cost
15 to 20 bucks each and they take 10 minutes
00:40:49
they're easy to use um i mean i've had those
since march and they cost 50 cents each
00:40:55
so so these are now officially available
though in the united states you had those
00:41:00
from some other country correct i got from
china and i got from the us and i got from korea
00:41:07
um and and these things are just made everywhere
dude and they're like they're these are the um
00:41:13
accuracy right yes yeah the so there's a
paper that was published at ucsf um i i
00:41:20
got an acknowledgement because of my donations
to support the research and it showed that it
00:41:26
these tests have actually very good specificity
and the sensitivity is is going to be call it 85
00:41:36
but these are antibody tests and and further
research has shown that not everyone has the
00:41:40
same antibody response after getting infected
and there's a relationship between how severe
00:41:44
the disease is for you and and various other
factors so and these will only show up typically
00:41:50
you know days to weeks after you get infected
the antigen tests which are the more common kind
00:41:55
of ones that everyone's looking for now are these
tests that can actually find the virus itself and
00:42:01
so they'll take a swab of your nose or some saliva
from your mouth and see if there's any virus
00:42:05
in there and it's a much much lower sensitivity
than the pcr test which is the expensive you
00:42:11
know lab test but it can be done on a stick and
it's a good enough thing for letting people in
00:42:15
to say a football game um and our a good friend
of ours just texted me and told me that they're
00:42:20
doing this at the ut austin game they're using
this antigen test to let people into the uh the
00:42:25
football game today so um or this weekend so it's
getting kind of more widespread yes and so when
00:42:31
we have those tests at scales what will the world
look like for burke i don't know just like the tsa
00:42:37
you'll get swabbed and you know these things it's
great business to be in by the way if you guys
00:42:41
you know want to spack a korean uh antigen test
business these things are going to sell like crazy
00:42:48
there's a company that um i heard of through
a friend which had it's an israeli company
00:42:53
i never followed up on it uh which was
a effectively a breathalyzer um which
00:42:58
would be could you just imagine that would be
incredible right right you just well the reason
00:43:05
we've talked about this in our chat group there
are there are startups like um uh was it quadell
00:43:10
hemodius q who've got these little you know two
or three hundred dollar little handheld readers
00:43:16
and the cartridges are basically mouth swabs or
lower nails nasal swabs you know cost 10 bucks
00:43:22
and i think you know i think they'll be they're
going to be rolling out over the next few months
00:43:26
and assuming we can scale the production of them
i think they will be everywhere and uh you know i
00:43:32
don't think it'll be a government mandated thing
so i don't think the government will get its act
00:43:35
together but it'll be the kind of thing where you
go shopping at a store or whatever and they'll be
00:43:39
early adopters or a restaurant they'll start using
it people will realize well wait i don't want to
00:43:43
get swapped three times a day so then they'll
get some sort of like receipt or voucher they can
00:43:48
take with them to the next place and so i i think
you know i'm like actually like i think i'm more
00:43:53
optimistic than you guys about covid right now
i think that whether it's because of these rapid
00:43:58
tests or because of treatments coming or just
this fundamental fact about comorbidities again
00:44:04
not absolving not not saying that covet isn't
serious but this is the fact that we've learned
00:44:09
that it's um you know that it's it's really
deadly primarily for people who have comorbidities
00:44:14
i think for all of these reasons i think kova
is going to be a distant memory by next summer
00:44:19
i really do i think um i think behaviorally
too what's that do you think behavior changes
00:44:26
as well like businesses and movie theaters
yeah sports yeah i think i think people we
00:44:31
i think people will largely be back um to what
they were doing last summer or by next summer
00:44:37
um i think we're gonna have like you know call
it a six-month period where you know we we do
00:44:41
these rapid tests just to make sure um and um
but but i but i think as the case rate starts
00:44:48
dropping off um things will kind of revert back to
to where they were i mean the the question to ask
00:44:54
is kind of you know which trends were there before
covet and have been accelerated like i would say
00:45:00
the move from like death of retail the shift to
e-commerce that feels to me like it's here to
00:45:04
stay but um you know food delivery things like
that but there was no trend of people not going
00:45:10
to sports games anymore you know and i think like
stuff like that will just snap right back i don't
00:45:15
know i don't know about you guys i'm still
like feeling [ __ ] up by the whole thing you
00:45:18
don't really realize how much your psychology has
changed until you kind of reflect on decisions and
00:45:24
behaviors like there's still a fear factor that
i think needs to kind of be ironed out but um you
00:45:30
know we'll see how long it takes for people it's
just like it's so different when you're so used to
00:45:34
just waking up and hopping on zoom for work and
avoiding people and putting masks on when you go
00:45:39
walk your [ __ ] dog i mean it's like yeah you
know it's gonna be hard to kind of change out of
00:45:43
that overnight well i think there's i think
this idea of the greater flexibility around
00:45:48
working arrangements the ability to work from
home i think offices will become a little bit
00:45:53
more like co-working spaces for a single company
where people come in three days a week and
00:45:57
work from home a couple days a week i think
there'll be a permanent flexibility but
00:46:00
uh but i also think that people want to get
back to work and they want it back to offices
00:46:04
and they want to interact with people and i think
everyone's going to be excited to do that again
00:46:09
it's not like everyone's going to be working
from home forever um so i you know i think
00:46:15
again i next summer is kind of my my date
for when things are back to back to normal
00:46:22
uh well this has been certainly uh driving a
lot of our politics right now you probably saw
00:46:29
the book that came out with the tapes of trump
saying that you know he was trying to play it down
00:46:36
sax as a lifelong republican what were your
thoughts when the republican presidential
00:46:41
candidate the republican president said uh hey i'm
trying to play this down when he was at the same
00:46:48
time saying it was deadly serious does that make
you worry about trump as a candidate and what do
00:46:53
you think that's gonna how that might play into
the election it must have been disappointing for
00:46:56
you to hear your candidate trump say at the same
time this is deadly and i want to play it down
00:47:02
well trump trump's leadership on this has been
a little bit erratic for sure um and by the way
00:47:07
let's go back and remind the viewers here that
in the first pods we were doing back in april
00:47:11
i think we kind of nailed what the right policy
response should be i wrote a blog on april 2nd
00:47:16
talking about that mass should be required
that that was the right response but we also
00:47:19
said that lockdowns very quickly after
the start of lockdown said that it was
00:47:24
um excessive you know and that what we should
do is be going all in on mass not lockdowns
00:47:29
i certainly would have liked to have seen trump
get that right several months earlier um that
00:47:34
being said let's not forget everybody else who
got this stuff wrong too i mean you look at cdc
00:47:41
um you know or w-h-o we had talked about this on
a previous pod uh i mean w-h-o um was was also uh
00:47:52
unclear about mass and and fouchy i guess
now retroactively saying that he didn't
00:47:58
think that mass were necessary because he's trying
to prevent a run on supplies i mean the whole the
00:48:02
whole response of the health care establishment
they were all they were all like really bad and
00:48:10
so i have a greater degree of forgiveness for
people who made mistakes back in march or april
00:48:16
but what i think is hard to forgive now are these
people who are promoting the wrong policies now
00:48:22
that we know so much more and i mean at this point
i would think i think that kovit is covet policy
00:48:29
is a net plus for trump in this campaign because
the other side of it is um is is these permanent
00:48:35
lockdowns you know this is an article in um was it
foreign policy saying that we need to go back to
00:48:40
lockdowns and i think biden said that we need to
have lockdowns again and you know his policy would
00:48:45
be to listen to the experts but all these experts
again were wrong about so many things and and so
00:48:51
you know again i think this this idea of permanent
lockdowns if that is the alternative to trump will
00:48:58
help trump win uh and so you don't think that this
woodward book and and that kind of stuff plays
00:49:04
into the election or the debates in the coming
weeks i think it's sort of priced into the stock
00:49:10
you know i mean look if it weren't for kovid i
think that if you go back to like january february
00:49:15
when trump gave that state of the union speech his
ratings were the highest they had been the economy
00:49:20
was on fire um you know he kind of it looked like
he was on cruise control to winning re-election
00:49:26
and then covet happened and you know um and his
ratings went down to the to their lowest point and
00:49:33
um and so i think he already paid the price
for you know the the let's call it inconsistent
00:49:39
leadership that um that woodward described so
i think that's priced in and now the question
00:49:44
is if the economy gets good enough fast enough um
and the other side is on the side of lockdowns and
00:49:51
trump is on the side of reopening um you know i
again i think covet policy becomes a net plus for
00:49:56
him chamatha 538 has in its simulations 77 wins
and 100 for biden you think that's accurate yeah
00:50:06
i mean i i think that until uh the debates
i think that this thing is basically where
00:50:11
it's been for a long time um and if if biden
flubs the debate and basically comes out as
00:50:18
um you know intellectually too inconsistent to
be voted in by a plurality of americans he's done
00:50:24
for and trump's going to win so he can't have
these you know verbal gaffes and basically seem
00:50:30
like he's a you know a senile octogenarian if he
does come off that way he's going to lose um but
00:50:36
if he doesn't then look many of the moments
you see him now he's actually pretty crisp
00:50:41
um that probably gets the job done because
like i said i think more people just want a
00:50:46
non-trump alternative um than want the trump
alternative even within the republican party
00:50:51
and look like preference falsification can cut
both ways all the people that said they weren't
00:50:56
going to vote for him but then did um you know
there's also probably a cohort of people that
00:51:02
now feel obligated when they came out of the
woodwork as supporting him now they just feel
00:51:06
like it's easier to be publicly supporting him
but then in the you know they may go the other
00:51:10
way so it all kind of works in both directions um
but i i still think on the margin uh biden is the
00:51:18
biden is the favorite and you know how different
will the world look chamath in your estimation
00:51:24
under abiding presidency we get to january 1st how
different does the country feel is it going to be
00:51:29
some great relief is it going to be some great
joy like when obama won no no what do you think
00:51:37
all these things are emotional overreactions in
both directions um the reality is that if you
00:51:42
if you actually graft substantive policy that
affects your everyday life the magnitude of the
00:51:49
impact of the presidency has been shrinking since
the 1980s i think the most impactful president
00:51:55
of our lifetimes our lifetime so you know
70s onwards was reagan and it's basically
00:52:02
been decaying ever since um and uh so i think you
know i think that the the job of the presidency is
00:52:11
mostly window dressing except for foreign policy
that matters less and less and i'll tell you why
00:52:16
that matters less and less because all the things
that the president used to you know really govern
00:52:20
like foreign policy was a byproduct of a
whole bunch of other things for example
00:52:24
our entire posture on the middle east which has
been a [ __ ] [ __ ] show or our entire posture
00:52:30
on russia was in part because of uh our energy
policy and in a world of sustainable energy
00:52:36
those entire regions are uh not important anymore
so we can let them basically fend for themselves
00:52:43
they're going to they're going to devolve because
they're going to have to suck out all the oil
00:52:46
out of the ground to try to monetize it before
wind and solar and everything else become the
00:52:50
dominant form of of energy and so if you take
energy policy off the table all of a sudden
00:52:55
the national security interests to care
about large spots of the world go to zero
00:52:59
right so so then there's less and less than
the presence of it's pretty pretty pretty short
00:53:03
isn't it yes so so my my my point is the surface
the surface area of the impact of the president
00:53:09
is shrinking and it shrinks as technology like if
you think about it what is driving foreign policy
00:53:15
and national security policy changes over the last
10 15 years definitely over the next 40 or 50 is
00:53:20
technology right if we get if we get for example
if we get any form of like carbon sequestration
00:53:26
uh at scale broadly available um you're going
to have a complete resurgence of western
00:53:31
economies if that technology is invented
in the united states or western europe
00:53:36
freeberg quickly you'd think that biden is going
to win and then what do you think the country
00:53:43
feels and looks like into abiding presidency and
then let's move over to energy and sustainable
00:53:50
energy and carbon after that i don't know um you
know i'll say the same thing i've said in the past
00:53:56
i i don't think um the notion of a sense of
relief is is realistic i don't think this is
00:54:01
about uh people think it's about trump but trump
is the product of what it's all really about um
00:54:07
and so i'll just you know kind of highlight i
think you know biden is is a column instead of
00:54:13
thinking about things as democrats and republicans
and left and right if we think about it as kind of
00:54:17
populism and free marketism and in the middle of
centrism you know we're probably taking a notch
00:54:24
toward centrism and at the end of the day the
march towards populism seems to be continuing
00:54:32
and you know whether trump is
kind of the product of that march
00:54:35
or maybe the next one will be elizabeth warren
or aoc it's kind of the same thing in my opinion
00:54:40
um but i i think that's the bigger kind of concern
is um you know how do we again keep general
00:54:47
generally keep most people in the united states
feeling like they can progress in life feeling
00:54:52
like they can find happiness in life and feeling
like there's opportunity for them to kind of
00:54:57
you know achieve their objectives and if they
don't feel like they're getting it they're
00:55:01
going to try and wrap it all up and unions will
continue to scale and aoc will become the vice
00:55:08
presidential nominee in 2024 and yadda yadda uh
freebird what are your thoughts on the wildfires
00:55:14
global warming and the politics of all that and
then we'll go to uh cancel culture with eusex
00:55:21
um california has 33 million acres of forest land
it's about 100 million acres in total land so
00:55:29
for us to make up about a third of our land um
so far we're burning three and a half million
00:55:34
so about 10 of our acres um when we burn an acre
we release uh about 15 of the carbon that's stored
00:55:44
in that acre into the atmosphere so thus far if
you do the math on that we've released about as
00:55:49
much uh co2 as we've as the california cars
release in a year by the wildfires um and the
00:55:56
politics we're seeing play out so it's it's it's
a significant problem but over the last 40 years
00:56:01
we've added about a quarter a ton of carbon to
each acre per year um and the reason we've done
00:56:08
that is we haven't kind of you know lit fires
and managed the forests and cut down trees and
00:56:15
there's been all these restrictions in california
so there's an argument that some are making that
00:56:19
this is about forest management and then there's
an argument that others are making that this
00:56:22
is about climate change and dry weather and hot
weather causing the fires and the reality is it's
00:56:27
both but it's as everything else in this country
right now becoming highly politicized that um
00:56:33
and you know trump visited newsome in a very kind
of symbolic gathering this week i don't know if
00:56:37
you guys saw the packet that was handed out to
trump it was awesome it was like 24 point from
00:56:56
was i mean you guys got to see it it's
awesome the little packet he got awesome
00:57:00
and then and then used some sat like exactly six
feet from him with a mask on and trump sitting
00:57:03
there without the mask on i mean it's such a
[ __ ] political circus um and uh you know i
00:57:09
think all things are true and all things are
false and we can move on uh well the the the
00:57:15
the debate on the fires is i mean what it's the
debate has has become sort of uh climate change
00:57:22
versus forest management you know that's sort of
the debate about it and like most of these debates
00:57:29
you don't necessarily have to choose there
can be an element of truth on both sides
00:57:33
um you know regardless of how much
climate change has caused these fires
00:57:37
we've done a very very poor job in the state
managing them and you know this idea that we
00:57:42
can just fix global warming and or wait you know
not have good forest management until you know
00:57:48
and just kind of wait for global warming to be
fixed is um i mean that's a really stupid idea so
00:57:52
regards of how much climate change is to the cause
of this i think we need a much more competent
00:57:58
state reaction to you know to to the fact these
fires do you believe in global warming david sacks
00:58:05
i believe in the you know in greenhouse
the greenhouse gas theory and that yeah
00:58:10
that it's you know that man-made co2 emissions
are going to have an impact on the environment
00:58:14
i think that you know what's a little
bit hard to know is the exact timing
00:58:17
and magnitudes of some of these things but i agree
with what elon said which is that we're running a
00:58:23
very high risk experiment here um continually
putting out you know co2 greenhouse gases into
00:58:30
into the atmosphere why is it so difficult for
the republican party and i feel like you're almost
00:58:35
straining and couching your words there david that
you believe in global warming you believe in what
00:58:40
elon's saying it's not worth doing this for risk
why do republicans seem to have such an aversion
00:58:46
to just saying hey global warming is a thing
and we need to fix it because because because
00:58:50
democrats wrapped those words around them like a
flag and so it became a political issue um like
00:58:57
with everything else i mean i i think so so again
as we have this false choice now of whether you
00:59:03
want to save the environment or save the economy
and um and the problem is i think i think that a
00:59:10
lot of republicans don't want to concede the issue
oh hey little guy a lot of problems don't want to
00:59:16
concede the issue because they're afraid it'll
lead to something like the green new deal and so
00:59:20
what we need to do is figure out um some
responses to the problem that don't require
00:59:24
us to destroy the economy right and for you if
we did incentives if the if the country spent
00:59:31
incentive sacks to get solar on roofs and stuff
like that you wouldn't be opposed to it would you
00:59:36
um you mean like taxing carbon emissions or just
giving discounts on putting solar in subsidizing
00:59:42
solar for people's houses or maybe the middle
ground of creating more nuclear reactors which
00:59:47
seems like something that neither party can agree
to hold on little guy sorry i got it got a little
00:59:53
podcast okay sorry no problem yeah um look i think
i i think to the extent that um carbon emissions
01:00:04
are uh an externality the traditional way of
dealing with this is you would internalize the
01:00:09
externality by placing some tax or penalty on
that um but so look would i rather tax carbon
01:00:15
emissions than something else yes i mean but the
only way you're going to get something like that
01:00:20
through is if you agree to something like a
one-for-one tax reduction in other areas right
01:00:25
because there's a there's this other larger debate
about whether you know what else should be taxed
01:00:30
what about you chamoth what are your thoughts on
solving global warming and this polarized sort of
01:00:35
republican democrat if you're for a global if
you're if you believe in global warming you're
01:00:39
not a republican there's a i i think that
um this is the most correlated thing with
01:00:46
a healthy economy because i think that whoever
solves climate change or the set of solutions
01:00:51
that solve climate change first of all they'll be
uh unbelievably economically successful they will
01:00:57
employ enormous numbers of people um and they'll
have a really profound legacy in the world so
01:01:04
uh the the question is how to do it and
i think the problem is right now there's
01:01:08
there's as david i think actually puts the best
lens on the topic which is right now we don't
01:01:14
even have enough canonical data so that there's
a single source of truth that we can all rely on
01:01:18
and have not having to judge it as climate change
i think is an important step which would just mean
01:01:23
having a longitudinal measurement of temperature
and you know having a longitudinal measurement of
01:01:28
everything from pm 2.5 to pm10 to you know uh
carbon methane all of the other normal sort
01:01:35
of emissions nitrous oxide all this stuff so that
then you can just understand what men and women as
01:01:42
part of the human race are doing to uh [ __ ] with
the counter factual because the counterfactual as
01:01:49
if we were just like living normal chill lives
and so once you understand that then you can
01:01:54
figure out how to at least mitigate that back to
what the counterfactual would have been or do it
01:01:58
even better i think the best thing again we talked
about this in a pod a couple weeks ago or a couple
01:02:04
couple months ago the best thing that governments
can do is introduce incentives and i think the
01:02:10
the most meaningful incentives here are not at
the consumer level but they're more upstream so
01:02:16
you know if you take something like cement you
know cement which is responsible for i think 20
01:02:21
of all the carbon emissions is a really pernicious
industry because you know they all they are very
01:02:26
local they operate within 300 local kilometers
of every place where you ship cement to make
01:02:31
concrete and whatnot um and when you look at sort
of where the emissions are um they're at a very
01:02:37
specific part of the chain which is effectively
impossible to mitigate so you have to have a level
01:02:42
of material science um you know improvement to
really move things away from cement altogether
01:02:48
well just knowing that you're going to have to
have the incentives that a government creates
01:02:53
to pull that forward another example is when you
look at like manufacturing all the [ __ ] that we
01:02:57
all love you know i don't care whether you like
[ __ ] normal pants or hemp pants you know when
01:03:02
you go back and you look at how h m makes those
pants there's our high temperature processes that
01:03:07
are burning fossil fuels they're emitting
all kinds of really terrible junk into the
01:03:12
environment and so it doesn't matter whether
you're vegan per se you know you're not going
01:03:16
to go around unclothed you're not going to not
use spoons right so all of that the totality
01:03:21
of all of that we need to completely reinvent
high temperature manufacturing that's not going
01:03:26
to happen unless the government steps in because
like for example take something as simple as steal
01:03:31
you know it's a tragedy of the commons right
i mean basically is if if if no individual can
01:03:37
make an uh a major impact uh maybe they won't
freeberg you think we have all the technology
01:03:44
we need to do this and it's really just a
matter of incentives and deployment right
01:03:47
now in terms of global warming or stemming global
warming is that a correct statement that we have
01:03:51
the technology we just haven't deployed correct
correct and i think it's 100 percent it's unpacked
01:03:57
well what i will say is we have the science
the um the engineering and the resourcing
01:04:04
uh and then the market are the are the kind of
unresolved right and so resourcing is capital
01:04:10
the market can be created artificially by putting
in place government subsidies or having the
01:04:14
government be a customer or you just have to wait
a long enough period of time if you listen to um
01:04:22
the tim ferriss interview with coke uh which
one was it charles coke he talks about how
01:04:29
ultimately consumers will vote with their dollars
if climate change is real and global warming is
01:04:34
starting to have an effect on planet earth and
we're seeing that right we're seeing people make
01:04:38
a switch to a vegetarian diet we're seeing people
buy teslas we're seeing people make choices for
01:04:42
sustainability so the free market is resolving
and will resolve climate change is the argument
01:04:48
that some libertarians might make um and then i
think be it is that true in your mind freeberg
01:04:54
do you buy that i think it's i i i'll be
honest with you i've been [ __ ] shocked
01:04:57
by how many people are choosing to pay a premium
for vegetarian meat alternatives i was wrong on
01:05:02
this i bet against these companies eight years
ago i didn't bet against them but i chose not
01:05:06
to bet for them because i made the argument
consumers will only buy stuff that's cheaper
01:05:10
and taste as good and i was wrong um millions of
consumers are going to burger king and buying a
01:05:16
veggie burger now which wasn't the case and we're
seeing this across the world yes out of a crisis
01:05:21
of consciousness right like you're saying
that's right it's a it's a behavioral change
01:05:25
wow because they yeah that's what they want in the
market that's what they want to spend their money
01:05:29
on they want to spend their money on having a
nicer world it's just like when people will spend
01:05:34
a premium amount of money on a nice suit it makes
them look good and feel good it's the same sort
01:05:38
of notion i i feel good when i'm buying a tesla i
feel good when i'm buying a veggie burger instead
01:05:43
of a meat burger knowing that it is harming
my people around me i couldn't bring myself
01:05:48
to buy a carbon-based ice engine uh recently i was
thinking about you know if i'm in tahoe and i need
01:05:56
to go off-road or there's no conditions i need
to have a car for and i want to i'm picking up
01:06:00
the model y with the dual engine and putting
snow tires on it as opposed to getting the new
01:06:05
you know jeep wrangler or the uh the new defender
but whether it's biomanufacturing or um you know
01:06:13
uh synthetic meets um or i think we're not just
in a point where we have to create luxury markets
01:06:19
i think we are going to disrupt commodity markets
um and i think we're going to do that this decade
01:06:24
and it's going to blow people's [ __ ] mind um
when everything you're eating looks tastes and
01:06:29
and feels the same and it's cheaper and it
was just made in a more sustainable way using
01:06:33
bioengineering which is kind of you know the
ability to to write the physical world with
01:06:38
software except it's realized through genomics
and it's it's an incredible thing that we're
01:06:42
doing how much of this is the generational shift
i mean gen x seemed pretty absorbed with our own
01:06:47
projects and a little bit of consciousness
but these millennials are now getting into
01:06:51
their 30s and they're 35 years old these the
oldest millennials and they seem to be incredibly
01:06:55
focused on the environment and doing what's right
this is a generational shift in your mind freebird
01:07:01
no i i think this is just the slow march of
of humanity's ability to master our world in
01:07:07
technology and uh you know uh look let me just
give you a scenario chamath kind of says we're
01:07:14
going to decarbonize the atmosphere if we could
build an algae or a seaweed from scratch or
01:07:21
using some basis and use software to resolve
what's the right sort of seaweed to create
01:07:25
that will grow like crazy in the oceans when it
gets heavy it sinks to the bottom of the ocean
01:07:30
and it literally just pulls carbon out of the
atmosphere and drops to these 40 000 foot or you
01:07:35
know 4 000 foot deep kind of wells we have already
built around 70 of planet earth we have the tools
01:07:42
to do that again the engineering and the capital
to do that and then the market for is there a
01:07:46
market for that it doesn't if if governments are
like it's a crisis let's put a billion dollars
01:07:51
into this like we did in the apollo program we
will get that done in five years i mean there's
01:07:56
just there's no shortage of tools and science to
be able to resolve that sort of a problem today
01:08:01
much like we're about to produce a coronavirus
vaccine in a matter of months after discovering
01:08:06
the virus which is unprecedented so our ability
to kind of read genomics and write genomics and
01:08:13
as a result create biological machines that can
do things in the physical world and self-propagate
01:08:17
gives us this incredible toolkit humans never had
at its disposal before and it will be the way that
01:08:23
will resolve climate change and it will in the
meantime we're going to bridge the gap between
01:08:27
here and there by creating these nice luxury
markets by the way here's a and so on here's
01:08:31
an incredible example so when you look at sort of
where um you know methane is a really problematic
01:08:36
greenhouse gas and most of the methane emissions
are from cows but it's from enteric fermentation
01:08:42
which is you know fancy language for burping and
what's incredible is there are now efforts to use
01:08:49
crispr to genetically engineer um you know cows
that don't necessarily have that same gut biome
01:08:57
you know dynamic so that you're burping methane
that there's also feed that you can actually give
01:09:02
a cow that'll minimize methane emissions burping
by 30 or 40 percent all these things are to your
01:09:07
point david they're they're so fantastical if
you think about it but they're possible today and
01:09:13
we just need to organize and get us kind
of like a center of gravity around these
01:09:17
things and they'll happen can we get can
we get jason the uh human version of that
01:09:23
does it also cover tooting
does it work for flatulence
01:09:27
uh interestingly chris sacca tweeted about
investing in a company called running tide
01:09:32
which grows kelp and uh will suck carbon
from the atmosphere i mean it just sinks
01:09:36
it to the ocean floor and they're selling carbon
offsets by putting seaweed on the ocean floor so
01:09:41
such such a no-brainer right i mean like the
ocean is so big and it's this per and like
01:09:46
it's not getting in the way of land well you don't
have to go figure out licenses and rights you got
01:09:50
you got to basically get carbon to go into the
ocean and so then you basically need an organism
01:09:54
that can grow and self-propagate quickly and
radically accumulate uh biomass in the ocean
01:10:00
and then figure out how to get rid of it so the
best way to get rid of it is have it sink it's
01:10:04
got to be some sort of seaweed or kelp or algae
and you just put it in the open ocean and it'll
01:10:08
propagate i mean that's just such a great obvious
us and there's a thousand scenarios like that that
01:10:13
i think you know we're gonna kind of creatively uh
come up with and results nuclear not even on the
01:10:19
discussion freeberg i'm curious like is it just
too tainted the work i've done the work i've done
01:10:24
on nuclear it used to cost something like some
number of dollars to get a nuclear power plant
01:10:30
through the regulatory barriers in the united
states and now it is so cost prohibitive it's
01:10:34
something like 10 billion dollars now from maybe
you know 100 million uh you know two decades ago
01:10:40
there's something about the regulatory barriers
yeah well there's a huge there's a huge nimby
01:10:44
problem right i mean who who wants a nuclear power
plant in their backyard nobody i mean nobody wants
01:10:50
it jason but but i agree with like the larger
point here that the solution to the problem is
01:10:54
ultimately going to be all these new technologies
these innovative solutions not making people feel
01:10:59
bad for consuming and you know being alive um you
know you you look at tesla and it's moving the
01:11:07
whole world to electric cars not with a government
mandate but just by creating a better car
01:11:12
and so it's ultimately going to be technology
companies you know increasing the solution set
01:11:18
um and giving people new choices that's how
we're going to ultimately solve the problem
01:11:23
and interesting in the news new scale is creating
small nuclear reactors and they just got approval
01:11:31
this is a the portland-based new scale powers they
had a small modular reactor that has been approved
01:11:38
by the us department of energy for a site in
eastern idaho we'll see if that ever comes online
01:11:44
but it does seem like small nuclear reactors
could solve part of the nimby problem in that
01:11:48
they're smaller so if something were to go
wrong we would have some ability to contain uh
01:11:54
or have a smaller footprint in a disaster-like
situation let's wrap with the overton window
01:11:59
uh chamath talked about it closing and saks uh
there was a good article the taxonomy of fear
01:12:05
uh that you started with the group tell us a
little bit about that article a taxonomy of fear
01:12:09
by emily yuff i think it's yeah what's her name
yeah she's a writer for the atlantic who wrote
01:12:13
this again it's called taxonomy of fear and
persuasion i think it's an important article
01:12:18
what it does is analyze uh cancel culture
and the language that's used to cancel people
01:12:24
and um one of the you know one of the things
she diagnoses is what she calls safety ism
01:12:30
which is anytime somebody doesn't like um
what you know an idea or what somebody else
01:12:36
is saying they claim that their safety is
being threatened by that idea and it's kind
01:12:41
of invoking these magic words that hr you know
has come up with where you know if anyone is
01:12:47
is creating an unsafe work environment or an
unsafe college campus well the the source of
01:12:53
the problem has to be removed immediately and so
this is the the language of cancer culture and
01:13:00
you know the problem with it is that it doesn't
really matter what the intent of the person was or
01:13:07
um you know intense sort of irrelevant or
whether the objection is reasonable or not
01:13:13
you know whether it it it causes uh it whether
actually you know threatens anyone's safety
01:13:18
and so there's an example of this when um 50
prominent sort of writers intellectuals wrote
01:13:24
a letter to harper's magazine including jk rowling
and um matt iglesias who's a co-founder of uh vox
01:13:33
and so there was a you know there's a trans writer
uh there's a writer on who's a trans uh person
01:13:41
uh at vox who claims that her her safety was
threatened but because one of the co-founders had
01:13:46
signed this letter the letter didn't discuss trans
issues it was simply the fact that uh iglesias had
01:13:53
signed it along with jk rowling and so jk rowling
apparently is is um you know yeah i i miss this
01:14:02
part of harry potter but apparently the the
trans movement is yeah heart position women
01:14:08
who were born uh women who were born biologically
female are different than women who transition
01:14:17
right so right and that's her position
01:14:20
but her position is being attributed to
glaciers by association yeah exactly and so
01:14:27
yeah i would be like saying that i'm in
support of trump just because i'm on this
01:14:30
podcast with you sense to be clear yes it's
contamination it's contamination by association
01:14:38
um you know cancer culture and uh this
one everybody being scared of words and
01:14:44
this will be if if trump wins in november
it'll be because this whole thing um
01:14:52
just gets too much for too many people there
is a massive plurality of people in the middle
01:14:57
who think this overreaching sensitivity by
the extreme left and the extreme right are
01:15:05
uh are just completely out to
lunch and um 100 percent agree
01:15:13
and and i and i think that by the way the extreme
left and the extreme right they should all just
01:15:17
get a room and just have one big huge orgy because
they're all just useless [ __ ] wits anyways all
01:15:22
of them both of them on the extreme light like
when antifa and the alt-right are fighting
01:15:27
with each other it's like this like sexual
tension that they just need to release somehow
01:15:30
um thanks for tuning in to the all-in pocket i
i mean i mean most people are in the middle most
01:15:37
people don't need to have this like us or them you
know it's it's it's like uh you're not allowed to
01:15:43
have an opinion like i actually learn more from
people that i disagree with just by hearing them
01:15:48
and not trying to judge them and i think that
most of us as well have our views that are sort
01:15:53
of moderately in the middle so for example there
was a usc professor that got sanctioned because
01:15:59
he was trying to he was teaching a language class
and he used the chinese word for that which sounds
01:16:04
like the n word and i think he didn't preface
it correctly or what have you but then you know
01:16:08
he apologized he was suspended and folks wrote a
letter now everybody has a right the the people
01:16:16
who felt uh offended have the right to write the
letter the administration had the right to react
01:16:23
and then i think people read that article and
think to themselves is this actually the uh has
01:16:29
the pendulum swung too far or not and and mark my
words if people feel that the pendulum has swung
01:16:35
too far they will elect donald trump because he is
the complete antithesis of giving a [ __ ] about
01:16:43
any of this stuff so that would be the bellwether
no that's exactly right so i think it's really
01:16:48
important i think that there's a large part of
the country that feels that trump is a shield
01:16:53
not a sword that he is their protector against
this this type of cancel culture and i know trump
01:16:59
seems like an instigator and he's very threatening
to a lot of people on the other side but
01:17:03
again to these people he's more of a shield and i
think it's it's not just the fact that he speaks
01:17:07
out and denounces cancer culture that makes him
a hero to these people it's his his superpower
01:17:12
is his uncancel ability it's this you know it's
the fact that the left has done everything they
01:17:18
can to try and get rid of this guy to impeach him
what have you yeah and he's and he keeps surviving
01:17:23
and so it's it's his very you know uncanceled
ability that makes him such a hero to these
01:17:27
people and i think this is the thing that the the
left or the media doesn't quite understand is that
01:17:33
denouncing trump in ever more hysterical terms
doesn't you know it doesn't work because it kind
01:17:39
of feeds it actually hurts it actually hurts it
adds more right it adds more people right to his
01:17:46
cohort who say you're overreacting right and
hystericalness of overreacting like i tweeted
01:17:51
i've been on this you know mini uh tweet effort
to tell people listen there are chromebooks in the
01:17:59
world they're very cheap 90 of the americans
are excuse me on the internet at high speed
01:18:05
and there are so many online resources for you to
get ahead in life go try to be a marketer go do
01:18:11
khan academy go learn ux and design these are the
clearest paths into the technology industry and i
01:18:17
get hysterical liberals who say people don't have
access to the internet people don't have access to
01:18:22
chromebooks and people don't have the free time
or the motivation to improve their lot in life
01:18:26
and it's like are you who are you talking about
because ninety percent of the country has access
01:18:32
to the internet and uses it uh already and if
you go and do a search for a chromebook on ebay
01:18:38
use one you could find one for 50 to 150 bucks so
we have this narrative that people cannot rise up
01:18:44
and people cannot improve themselves and every
time i say i believe people can improve themselves
01:18:48
people say that i'm uh like a racist that i
believe that people could improve themselves and
01:18:53
it just makes me further away from the democratic
party it makes me further away from the left that
01:18:58
i think i think this i'm going to put out a crazy
um idea which is that i think if donald trump
01:19:06
wins in a meaningful way in november i don't
think he will but if he does the actual
01:19:13
silver lining for for everybody is i think
the republican party will disintegrate
01:19:18
and the democratic party will disintegrate and
in its place i think you'll probably have three
01:19:24
or four parties and i think that that would be
amazing so it's the burn it all down vote which
01:19:30
was peter thiel's idea in the beginning
was like i think sacks and teal when they
01:19:34
coordinated this trump election it was
all burn it down burn it down right sex
01:19:37
that was your star chamber discussion with teal
would you want guys wanted to burn it all down
01:19:42
i think you're trying to i think what you're doing
is contamination by association there yeah to
01:19:49
college just because thiel right when's the last
time you talked to peter till no peter's a friend
01:19:53
of mine but i don't but again and and i agree with
him about some things i just agree with him about
01:19:57
other things but this is it you did this idea but
but this idea that we can't hang out with people
01:20:04
you know or or that hanging out with people means
that we must endorse every view they have like why
01:20:09
is it even relevant that you know i'm friends with
peter look we are like for example we're friends
01:20:14
in our group chat with a couple guys who are very
far right we're not going to name who they are
01:20:20
but i would say that i think that the group
chat is better off for them being able to say
01:20:26
what they believe and push back and just like
there's a bunch of us who are in the middle
01:20:30
and we waffle back and forth between the left
and the right and then there are folks that
01:20:33
are more on the far right our far left uh or
on the left so i i just think that we forget
01:20:40
that there is enormous value in the diversity of
thought um and and people think that there is uh
01:20:49
some sort of safety and conformity and in fact
i will tell you um that's actually the exact
01:20:56
opposite you're more likely to be in conflict
with someone that you are very similar to
01:21:03
because eventually you will always end up
competing for the exact same resource and
01:21:07
that resource becomes scarce if you are actually
spending time with people that are divergent
01:21:12
and different from you you actually end up not
competing for the same resources because you're
01:21:17
one second you're built differently so there's
just less conflict so this is why multi-party
01:21:23
systems work this is why you have less fighting
when there's you know in canada and um and europe
01:21:31
than you do in the united states because the
united states tries to reduce things down to
01:21:34
two choices and so we we all of a sudden like
just glom into these pools that are seemingly
01:21:40
similar and we just end up hating each other
freeburg any final thoughts on canceled culture
01:21:47
yeah i think it's just gonna be bad
01:21:51
i i totally i totally agree with jamaat that if
trump wins the election this will be the reason um
01:21:57
that the same thing happened when the republicans
overplayed their hand with bill clinton right
01:22:01
and it was said at that time that you know clinton
was always very fortunate in who his enemies were
01:22:06
um because no matter you know what he did wrong
or how badly he screwed up his enemies always
01:22:11
made too big a deal of it they overreacted and
it played into his hands and i you know i have
01:22:16
to wonder if that's what's happening right now
with this whole cancel culture yeah all right
01:22:20
well we'll leave it at that we've gone over
an hour uh if you're listening to the all-in
01:22:24
podcast and you'd like to advertise uh it's
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01:22:30
and if you'd like to be a guest on the podcast
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01:22:35
so send your advertising and guest requests to
tomorrow org breaking news right now there is a
01:22:45
tech crunch story that just broke while we're
on air can't stop wound stop social capital
01:22:50
just filed for its fourth spac uh if you're into
spax no that's not the that's the that's not the
01:22:56
article the article oh the article is launched is
spack and it's back as he spacks the world with
01:23:03
spax yeah we just announced three yeah oh you
just announced number three no no three three d
01:23:09
e and f oh d e and f got approved no yeah they're
filed out with the sec now yeah and when would d
01:23:15
e and f be available for people to buy shares
in it then is that like that 60 days uh 15 days
01:23:21
oh okay great all right well there you have it and
then you confirmed that the second spec was open
01:23:26
door right is that confirmed where is that that
was announced on tuesday yeah congratulations
01:23:31
on that thank you how do you feel about all
these people stealing your thunder with stacks
01:23:35
i think it's i don't know it's great no it's
it's great i think it's growing the market it's
01:23:40
good for entrepreneurs it's amazing i mean what
this is going to mean that companies with 50 to
01:23:45
150 million will be able to go public on a clear
path i hope so i i've said this before we've
01:23:50
gone from eight thousand public companies to four
thousand in 20 years so let's uh reverse the tide
01:23:55
let's go back double the number of companies
that's right i mean we should think
01:23:59
we should have gone up you would think
it would be in interest rates it has to
01:24:03
yeah yeah all right well here we go uh please
for the love of god somebody convinced calm
01:24:08
robin hood thumbtack and data stacks to go public
because i've got kids to put their school uh all
01:24:14
right everybody for bestie c the rain man himself
david sacks and the queen of quinoa freed burgers
01:24:22
this is the all in podcast we'll see
you next time bye bye love you besties
