00:00:00
shout out to uh a company sax and i
what we're doing what are you doing
00:00:10
okay shut the [ __ ] up i just wanted to give
a founder applause you are such a scumbag
00:00:18
despite how tired of them you i've woken
up now now i'm awake you've awakened
00:00:22
i'm done i quit i'll give a shout
out to uh which just got acquired by
00:00:29
shut the uh up we need plugs
00:00:49
hey everybody welcome to the all in podcast
i'm jason calacanis with us today the rain man
00:00:55
himself calling in from an undisclosed location
the queen of quinoa and of course the dictator
00:01:01
himself chamoth paulie apatia all right boys how
are we doing feels low energy today what's going
00:01:07
on great how are you what's going on let's
go let's do this i love it let's go love it
00:01:15
all right you're hot you're coming in hot yeah
breaking news breaking news uh biden has announced
00:01:23
uh his capital gains tax hike i don't think this
impacts any of us but biden will propose almost
00:01:31
doubling the capital gains tax rate for wealthy
individuals from 20 percent to not 25 not 28 39.6
00:01:41
to help pay for the social spending uh and in
equality for those earning one million or more
00:01:48
so nobody on this call federal tax rates could be
as high as 43.4 percent the capital gains increase
00:01:54
would raise 370 billion over a decade yada yada
for new yorkers the combined state and federal
00:02:01
capital gains rate could be as high as 52.22
percent and californians 56.7 biden has previously
00:02:10
warned that those earning over 400 000 can expect
to pay more in taxes this was just breaking news a
00:02:16
couple of hours before we started the pod and the
stock market is uh down and people are freaking
00:02:25
well dude jacob i want to hear your take on this
actually i want to start with your attention
00:02:34
you didn't tell me this is gonna hit
me so hard no j j j cal was ranting
00:02:38
on this topic 15 minutes ago we were talking and
i'm like dummy what did you think was gonna happen
00:02:44
you know he's sitting there going off he's sitting
there going off it's like what did you expect just
00:02:49
before we get into it we should do a quick primer
on what this means right so capital gains taxes
00:02:54
are the taxes you pay when you make an investment
and you sell that investment at a profit
00:02:58
that you pay a tax on the profit you make and
there's a difference between capital gains on the
00:03:03
short term which means less than one year and long
term which means you've had the investment for
00:03:07
more than a year so economic policy historically
has dictated that having a low capital gains tax
00:03:13
rate relative to what you know an income tax rate
might make it might be incentivizes people to make
00:03:19
long-term investments and it you know gets more
money moving in the economy and as a result um
00:03:24
you know the economy will grow and so the idea of
increasing the long-term capital gains tax from 20
00:03:31
which it currently is to 40 um is a real striking
you know economic policy shift rationalized as
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you know we're going to save uh you know we're
going to use this money for social spending but
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i think the historical context and what this is is
really important as we get into the conversation
00:03:47
um and just speaking historically you know the
the maximum tax rate and long-term capital gains
00:03:53
got up to 40 sacks you probably have the history
on this in 1978 for a year right or like 76 to 78
00:04:01
and then it's been largely you know
15 to 20 for the last 20 years or so
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um and so to jump up yeah and prior to that
in the early part of the 20th century like 25
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pretty consistently for a long time so to jump
up to 40 percent it's a really big shift and
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there's a lot of debate around the
economic implications of doing this
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uh i thought that was important yeah let's
take a step back and actually see the forest
00:04:23
from the trees and the forest from the trees
is that i don't think biden um thinks that
00:04:31
it's a credible plan um inasmuch as i probably
think uh he needs you know this is like its
00:04:39
performative um because it was a lot larger
the number the headline number was a lot larger
00:04:45
than um what people were whispering was going to
be the number right it was supposed to be like
00:04:50
in the low 30s or maybe kind of like you know 33
34 and then all of a sudden like to come out of
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39.6 i think it's almost like okay he's he's
giving the pound of flesh to uh the the left
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kind of like woke mob of the democratic party
who probably doesn't understand how capitalism
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works in the first place and doesn't care because
they're not they're not participants in it now
00:05:17
my reaction is i don't think it's going to pass
i think it's going to be really tough to get done
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and i think it probably you know maybe maybe
there's a watered-down version but this version i
00:05:26
i'm not super worried about and then it just comes
back to the same thing over and over the the fewer
00:05:33
the number of people that get to participate in
the growth and see the upside the more there are
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that just wants to just kind of you know tear it
all down and so i don't know it's just yet another
00:05:43
signal that we have these structural issues to
fix it's not reasonable that a few people get
00:05:47
super rich and everybody else gets left on the
sidelines saks were you thought it's not going
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to pass but it's not going to pass it's not going
to tax is it going to pass is it an opening salvo
00:05:56
where he wants to get to 32 so he's starting at
39. i think i think it could pass because i think
00:06:02
they're they're planning to do this tax increase
as part of the the second infrastructure bill it's
00:06:07
not really an infrastructure bill they're calling
it human infrastructure we've talked about this
00:06:11
infrastructure is one of the last categories
of federal spending that's still popular so
00:06:15
they're rebranding a bunch of social programs as
human infrastructure i think that bill will pass
00:06:21
i don't know if the the rate will stay at 39.6
but i think there will be a big increase clearly
00:06:27
in the the cap gains rate i mean i think it's
worth remembering how it got to 20 it got to 20
00:06:35
because bill clinton lowered it from 28
to 20 as part of an overall package of um
00:06:42
of of tax reforms that he did in the in the
sort of the mid-90s and you know that led to
00:06:49
some of the best years of economic performance
gdp growth in the u.s productivity growth
00:06:54
uh deficit reduction um you know and so you know
i think we're we're we are experimenting with
00:07:02
breaking something that's been working i think
pretty well since the the reagan clinton years
00:07:08
uh which is to have you know reasonably low uh
taxes on capital formation and investment um i
00:07:15
think it's a category error to treat capital
gains or to think about it just as income you
00:07:20
have to remember that all this money has already
been taxed once right so you make the money the
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first time as income you earn it you pay tax on it
then you decide to save some of it and invest it
00:07:32
and then you get taxed again on that amount and um
so so capital gains is a form of double taxation
00:07:38
uh that was the original reason one of the
reasons to to have a different tax rate for it
00:07:43
and um you know i think that this risk kind of
messing up the economic recovery that's really
00:07:50
underway already by the way think about um what
just happens to any organization that has to pay
00:07:56
cap gains right it's not just individuals
like last time i checked organizations
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aren't exempt from cap gains for-profit
organizations um and i don't exactly know
00:08:09
what they will do as well so you know you you
you're putting a lot of people under a huge
00:08:14
strain when you double the the the effective rate
of return so you know if you're for example like
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um a pension fund right and you have an enormous
investment in a private equity fund or a hedge
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fund part of these things is that you know
there are these complete pass-through vehicles
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um and so as long as like you've structured
yourself in a way where you don't have to pay
00:08:35
that tax i think i guess you're indifferent but if
you're any organization or institution or a person
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or collection of people that bears that tax all of
a sudden you know your returns have been basically
00:08:47
cut in half that's pretty nuts let's talk about
the average joe for a second or jane as it were
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401ks would take a hit here and then when you go
to your retirement and you have to liquidate them
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you know you don't pay tax on the you don't make
taxes on that yeah you don't pay tax on the 401k
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gains during the otherwise your portfolio
because 401k is going to be a small amount
00:09:09
you can contribute a year so retirees who happen
to have stock market gains or cryptocurrency
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people trading that yeah you'll basically pay
the same as income tax as opposed to paying
00:09:19
a lower tax so would a it'll diminish investment
jason it's exactly what david says which is that
00:09:24
on the on a marginal basis what will happen
is inflation probably goes up because people
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just decide to consume rather than invest because
they think well what's the point you know there's
00:09:34
already risk that i bear and so you know the the
earliest risk assets right the riskiest ones that
00:09:40
we all participate in which is early stage venture
and company formation there's you you may not be
00:09:44
thinking about the capital gains rate but it's
implicit in the returns that you're expecting
00:09:49
for the risk and the time you're going to take and
you know we've been trained to feel that rate and
00:09:55
if you double that rate from 20 to 40 i suspect
that there's a lot of people whose risk tolerance
00:10:01
changes and they're going to feel their after-tax
gains differently and they'll wonder to themselves
00:10:07
is this worth it and then i think what happens as
a result is entrepreneurship drags i don't know
00:10:12
if anybody's done an analysis but i suspect part
of the reason why america is such a you know an
00:10:19
amazing like sink for capital right it absorbs
capital all around the world is that you've
00:10:24
created incentives that get people very excited
because they think they can get rewarded if you
00:10:29
take those rewards away i think the implications
are much bigger than just the cap gains rates here
00:10:34
because as the people change their behavior then
the capital formation pools outside of the united
00:10:38
states change their behavior and the whole thing
has a knock-on effect and it was more muted in
00:10:43
clinton it was less muted in 78 it basically
didn't exist in the 40s and 50s but it is
00:10:49
a huge force today i mean like we are an indebted
nation that owes money to all kinds of countries
00:10:55
around the world including china we're supposed
to generate growth and sort of pave it back and
00:10:59
where will the growth come from if lps don't want
to back venture funds or venture funds but let's
00:11:04
people say you know let's be honest and direct
i mean are any of you guys going to change your
00:11:10
investment behavior if the cap gains tax goes to
40 no but there'll be less of it you know yeah so
00:11:18
look anything my behavior has changed i think
my behavior will change yeah how will it change
00:11:24
because it's exactly what david said so i just
put in 100 million dollars into a climate change
00:11:28
company two weeks ago uh under this promise uh
i could only put in 50. so there's 50 million
00:11:35
less progress that's going to happen on
that business i'm not sure that that was
00:11:38
that's the right answer for what that company
is trying to do in the world and the way you're
00:11:43
thinking you're saying that you're saying
the profits you would have had from before
00:11:46
are diminished in half therefore you would only
have half as much money to invest as an investor
00:11:51
right so so however way you want to cut it
whether it's like the 10 companies gets cut
00:11:55
down into five or the five ten companies that i
invest in get half my money the point is at some
00:12:00
point the money starts to run out not just for me
but for everybody else yeah basically at the end
00:12:06
of the day the money goes into the hands of you
know government legislators and administrators
00:12:10
to decide how that money gets spent and it's not
in the hands of uh capitalist investors to decide
00:12:17
where to invest that that's the fundamental kind
of shift that that's gonna be right right capital
00:12:22
capital has been taken out of the economy risk
capital has been taken out of the economy and it's
00:12:26
now going to be you know spent by by government
look and anything that you tax you punish and
00:12:32
disincentivize and anything you subsidize you
you create an incentive for there to be more of
00:12:38
and you know so this is just we we always talk
about these things in terms of who they're going
00:12:42
to hurt is it that they are that this only falls
on the backs of rich people um so we shouldn't
00:12:48
care but the real question is what is this going
to do to the economy and you know i think we've
00:12:52
talked in previous podcasts the last part that we
have with brad gerstner it feels like everything
00:12:57
in the american system is kind of broken except
for one thing which is this sort of opportunity
00:13:02
economy that's that's been created by risk capital
right and and people creating new companies
00:13:08
you know like these big sultifying political
corporations the s p 500 are completely broken
00:13:14
government's completely broken the federal debt
is out of control everything's the media is broken
00:13:19
everything in america is either broken or needs
to be revitalized or reformed except one thing
00:13:24
is working really well which is risk capital and
its allocation to founders who have nothing but
00:13:30
a good idea right and when all of a sudden you
double the cap gains rate that is an attack on
00:13:37
that opportunity society now i think there is a
legitimate conversation to be had about how do
00:13:41
we spread this sort of system of opportunity to
more and more people i think like brad framed it
00:13:47
really well in the last episode like how do we
get more people involved in that i would submit
00:13:51
the answer has a lot to do with school choice and
charter schools giving people everyone in this
00:13:56
country deserves to have a first-rate education
um and so that is a very legitimate conversation
00:14:01
to have but i think to have punitive taxation on
it is i think it risks breaking that last thing
00:14:07
that is working so well in in the american system
i think it's really well said and uh i think this
00:14:12
is going to take re-domiciling to another level
i mean if you're in new york or california right
00:14:17
now and you were thinking about wyoming or utah
or texas or florida i mean this kind of makes
00:14:25
the decision for you if it does go to 40 and
because you could actually meet would you get
00:14:32
to neutral if you left and so well i remember i
remember when i moved to the united states in 2000
00:14:38
the marginal tax bracket that i was in and i was
making maybe you know 100 no i was probably making
00:14:46
80 or 90 000 a year was 55 and i remember
coming to the united states and seeing my after
00:14:54
my take-home pay my first paycheck and i was
shocked because i was like you know i was
00:14:59
paying maybe 36 all blended in federal and local
at the time or state at the time in california
00:15:05
and slowly slowly it's creeping up with with
if you play it out today where we are plus new
00:15:10
york state just passed laws you're going to be
sort of in the 50 to 55 almost upwards of 56 for
00:15:16
certain folks and maybe the answer is that's the
right thing um but i think we have to acknowledge
00:15:22
that there's going to be a bunch of unintended
consequences so maybe the intended consequence
00:15:26
is to actually create more um equality between the
richest few and you know uh not even the poorest
00:15:34
frankly because but it'll just be the richest
few and the the next richest few quite honestly
00:15:39
because like you know the investing class
is still a small number of people um but the
00:15:42
unintended consequences of that decision i think
is what exactly what david said which is that
00:15:47
over the next five or ten year period you
will at a practical level see less investment
00:15:54
and the the only way to make that whole is if the
government then takes all that money and all of
00:15:59
a sudden allocates it from their own coffers
back into the economy and we know that that's
00:16:03
not going to happen well right that's just going
to be riddled with waste and graft and corruption
00:16:08
so unfortunately the setup is that you know you're
going to really impact entrepreneurship and then
00:16:14
and then i wonder to myself by the way guys like
what was the actual goal of this meaning there was
00:16:20
20 or 30 guys that were just making so much money
on their equity but then that's then then we need
00:16:26
to blame like the these lists like the forbes
billionaires list because those are inaccurate
00:16:31
because a lot of these stuff is like unrealized
realized paper gains right and so they're not
00:16:38
they're not paying any capital gains because they
haven't sold anything and most of these guys that
00:16:42
are uber uber rich you know have no desire to sell
because it's for them it's a control issue to sell
00:16:47
i'm not sure the car i'm not sure the consequence
of taxing uber rich people is the true motivation
00:16:54
i think for some people maybe it is but um if we
just take a step back i mean a year ago the u.s
00:17:01
debt level was significantly lower than it is
today we've taken on a tremendous amount of of
00:17:06
federal debt to fund a series of programs that we
believe we're going to kind of keep you know the
00:17:12
american population employed and keep our economy
moving that was a massive burden we accrued and in
00:17:18
the past year so ultimately over time the only way
to kind of support this this new federal budget
00:17:26
and um you know the this new servicing costs
that we've taken on at the government level
00:17:30
you really only have kind of like three options
option one is you're gonna continue to raise more
00:17:35
debt and massively kind of inflate everything
and the dollar declines in value option two
00:17:41
is to reduce spending which means starting to cut
these programs and option three is to raise taxes
00:17:46
and it's pretty clear that option one is one
where we're kind of already at the economic limit
00:17:51
option two is going to be very hard to swallow at
a time like this so you can't just cut spending
00:17:56
right now across the board so many aspects of the
us economy and so many individuals in the united
00:18:01
states are dependent on the federal government for
support and so option three is the only real one
00:18:08
that's left on the table and so then the question
is who are you taxing you're not going to go tax
00:18:12
the people that are struggling you're going
to tax the corporations and the wealthy and
00:18:16
the capital gains tax is the one place where
you can kind of say look the tax rate that
00:18:21
you're paying today is half of what an income tax
rate would be if you were earning that as income
00:18:25
let's get it to be fair and even and i think
just just to argue this other side like there's a
00:18:30
motivation there's a there's a point of view where
this is coming from it's not just let's go tax the
00:18:33
rich screw the economy it's that we find ourselves
in a circumstance where we need to do one of those
00:18:38
three things the most rational to do is to or the
most kind of sensible politically uh to do is to
00:18:45
is to increase taxation and this is the the first
place to go the most obvious place to go it's not
00:18:51
because so when you think about like so for
example like you know you would say okay
00:18:55
who are the folks that we're talking about there
can be entrepreneurs that are building companies
00:19:00
again they're never selling so they're never going
to pay these taxes like it's not the case that
00:19:04
elon musk or mark zuckerberg is all of a sudden
going to write a 40 billion dollar check because
00:19:09
that's that's not how much they make that may
be how much they're worth right but they will
00:19:14
never sell a single share unless they have
to to fund some other project in which case
00:19:19
would you do tomorrow so so what i was going to
say is so and then and then you look at somebody
00:19:24
else like maybe you say oh well you know the
people that manage money like let's go after
00:19:28
those guys because like those guys shouldn't be
you know rich but then the problem is those guys
00:19:32
are already paying w2 income they're already
paying nominal income tax rates that's how the
00:19:37
entire hedge fund industry works right now
you know you get paid in current income um
00:19:43
and so okay so you're not getting their money
because they're already paying at the prevailing
00:19:46
rate so again this goes back to if you actually
trace the problem and see who it affects it's
00:19:52
exactly what david said it's these folks that are
in the middle that are actually putting the money
00:19:56
to work that are trying to invest in things
that now have a very different return profile
00:20:00
and you're right the core business that they
do they may still keep doing but then all of
00:20:05
the incremental things in the future that
they want to do they won't do for example
00:20:09
look at all of the talk right now about how
everybody needs to stand up you know more angel
00:20:14
investing more minority investing more women gps
all of this stuff well all of the folks let's just
00:20:21
be honest all the folks that were in a position to
put money into those folks are now 50 on a dollar
00:20:28
rated basis poorer if this thing passes and i bet
you what they're going to do is they're not going
00:20:32
to cut their allocations in sequoia they're going
to cut their allocations to all these other folks
00:20:37
yeah that's exactly what i was thinking is who's
it going to hurt it's again it's going to hurt all
00:20:41
the people that you want to get into the game it's
going to hurt all the people that are here but the
00:20:45
richest richest rich folks that is not unless
you impact but unless you ex-appropriate the
00:20:50
money from them that's not you're not going
to get a single cent and then that was the
00:20:54
that was the concept of the wealth tax wasn't it
that you would take the total value what you have
00:20:58
and just take away one percent a year from bezos's
you know or zuckerberg's hundred billion dollars
00:21:04
so would that not have been a better solution than
this if you had to pick one a one percent well
00:21:09
that's a that's a super silver whatever then we're
no better than the banana republic that could also
00:21:14
then expropriate a mine because we don't like
the way that the mining is happening or you know
00:21:19
another critical asset because the government
decides that it's important i mean what's the
00:21:23
difference between a stock and any other asset
that either a person or or a corporation owns
00:21:28
it's it's it's very uh i think that the
definitions are thin they're all the same
00:21:33
things at the end of the day let's go back let's
go back to the federal budget problem like how
00:21:36
do you address it saks i mean what's the right
course here what i think is amazing is we're
00:21:41
we're about to spend we're raising this hundreds
of billions of taxes in order to fund you know
00:21:47
trillions of new spending i don't really hear
the administration selling these new programs
00:21:53
selling the spending all we're really talking
about is that there's too many rich people you
00:21:58
know we have these millionaires and billionaires
we gotta tax them more and so all we're really
00:22:02
talking about is whether it's appropriate to be
punishing the rich and super rich we're not really
00:22:06
talking about where is this money going are these
programs what do we get out of it exactly and my
00:22:12
point is for forget about like who it's gonna hurt
i think it's eventually gonna hurt the economy
00:22:18
uh and the question is what do we get
out of it and i think what's amazing is
00:22:21
this is even paying for the big ticket items on
the progressive wish list we're not getting to
00:22:27
universal um health care with this we're not
getting to universal higher education we're
00:22:32
not getting to any other we're not getting to like
forgiveness of student loans or anything like that
00:22:36
we're not getting to any of the really big ticket
items on the progressive wish list and yet we're
00:22:41
maxing out the taxes relative to anything we've
done historically and so where do you go from
00:22:46
here you know because we're thinking this is just
the tip of the iceberg in terms of the progressive
00:22:52
agenda doesn't that speak to the problem like the
fact that we have such an extraordinarily high
00:22:57
uh debt burden and federal budget that we're kind
of scrambling to figure out a way to kind of make
00:23:03
ends meet effectively right i mean because our
alternative again is to just let massive inflation
00:23:08
run you know issue a ton of uh a ton of new debt
or to cut spending no no but david did either
00:23:14
of those seem to be on the table no no you're
going to exacerbate this issue i'm i'm telling
00:23:19
you i know it doesn't seem likely but i think on a
marginal basis this will be an incentive to spend
00:23:25
and the reason is that it's a very frustrating
idea for somebody to think about putting money
00:23:29
in the ground especially a sophisticated investor
at a rate of return that just changed in half and
00:23:36
so from my perspective i would be more likely to
spend because i would rather just yolo the money
00:23:42
than i would rather put it into the ground because
i would be worried that that could then get taken
00:23:46
away from me it could also change even further and
further and i think that's a very frustrating idea
00:23:51
i'd rather take a vacation again let's go back
to the example i'd rather take a vacation with
00:23:55
that 10 000 then go on to jason syndicate
and put it into the hands of folks because
00:24:00
i'm just like you know what it's going to turn
into even if even if jason hits it and i get back
00:24:04
you know i'd rather just go on vacation enough
of those decisions and i think i think you have
00:24:09
a very different kind of economy you have you know
what you have you have what everybody else has so
00:24:14
do we reduce spending i think you have to reduce
expenses i think that we have an infrastructure
00:24:20
that is not well accounted for meaning if you're
a company you can go to a company like tableau
00:24:25
you can go to a company like you know pick your
pick your metrics company and within you know a
00:24:30
few weeks and months of work you can literally
understand where all the dollars are right you
00:24:35
can understand your business and you can figure
out where money is being wasted and where it's not
00:24:40
in a government that's impossible to do right
because you have these laws and these laws are
00:24:45
artificial constructs that we construct and
those artificial constructs are influenced by
00:24:50
money in and of itself and so these dollar flows
are impossible to map so you don't know where
00:24:55
it goes so for example the 700 billion budget in
the pentagon does anybody have any idea what the
00:25:00
roi is on that or even a way to measure it like
even to actually make it simple what like if you
00:25:06
were if you had 700 billion dollars of investment
capital the the market has a really simple way of
00:25:12
saying okay david what's your roik what's your
return on invested capital and you can say all
00:25:18
kinds of fancy things you can have all kinds of
fancy projects or simple projects but at the end
00:25:23
of the day what is measurable is a dollar in and
what that dollar grew into and that's a return
00:25:27
on invested capital it is impossible to know that
and so you know we could say for example you could
00:25:33
define it and say well i'm going to basically
get every single person to graduate high school
00:25:40
and now i'm going to spend 500 billion dollars a
year to make sure that the graduation rate is 100
00:25:45
that would be an incredible goal you know what
that is absolutely measurable right and and you'd
00:25:50
be able to back into all of these programs and
the one that's ones that didn't work you'd cut
00:25:55
you know and you'd end up with what david said
which is school vouchers uh i mean just exactly i
00:25:59
think i think the absence of that accountability
chamath has led us to a scary dilemma
00:26:04
and the dilemma is over 10 million americans
are directly employed by federal government
00:26:10
and a large swath of the remainder of the
economy is supported by federal government
00:26:15
spending which is basically your point
right so large amounts defense and military
00:26:20
construction health care and pharma i mean the
list goes on but like the direct employees of the
00:26:25
federal government plus the amount of revenue that
depends on federal spending is so significant now
00:26:31
as a percent of the total income generated by
americans that it is very hard to say like let's
00:26:36
create accountability in a system when so much of
the economy is functionally dependent on it am i
00:26:41
missing something saks like i mean isn't that
the circumstance we're in right now yeah i mean
00:26:45
the thing that like is amazing to me is you know
i lived through the 1980s and 1990s like like you
00:26:50
guys did from 1982 to 2000 that 18-year period we
had sort of an unrivaled economic performance it
00:26:59
was roughly around we had two bad years under
george herbert walker bush that's why he lost
00:27:03
reelection but we had close to 40 percent growth
in gdp every year we had great productivity um
00:27:11
and we had massive deficit reduction it's the
last year percent a year yeah and we and we had
00:27:17
we we actually had government uh budget surpluses
the last few years so it seems to me that we had
00:27:24
the winning formula as a country and look this
is not partisan i think it's bipartisan i think
00:27:30
the the right solution is somewhere between what
what reagan and bill clinton did and you know
00:27:36
clinton uh he rose he increased the individual
tax rate to 39.6 so he did do that from 36 percent
00:27:44
but he cut it from he cut the investment the cap
gains rate from 28 to 20. it was in that ballpark
00:27:49
you know we know that works you know we know that
works i and and and you know somehow we've moved
00:27:55
away from what we learned in that time period
because you know i think the the left in this
00:28:01
country has has become kind of you know has
embraced this we're saying the same thing you
00:28:06
set up the incentives for people to invest they do
if you set up the incentives for people to spend
00:28:12
they will do that as well i i see this i think
chamath is exactly right there are a lot of people
00:28:17
in it you use the example of the syndicate.com
when i do my syndicate deals there are people
00:28:21
who are recreationally saying you know what i
love the idea of putting 5 or 10k into a flyer
00:28:26
they're gonna you know half of them will go away
a third of them all these people who are you know
00:28:31
involved in day trading or crypto or real estate
investing they're going to look at it and say is
00:28:36
this worth the time or is it worth this amount
of time maybe i'll cut back from doing 40 hours
00:28:42
a week of this to 20. and if you look at what
happened with crypto people they went to puerto
00:28:46
rico you look what happened to venture capitalists
and ceos they went to florida miami austin
00:28:50
this is gonna if it does pass you could be
pushing people to singapore well we have
00:28:55
another very complicated problem and this is what
freeberg brought up which is and i don't know the
00:28:59
answer david so i'm trying to i'm actually talking
around your question because i i think it's a it's
00:29:04
it's the right absolute question but think about
this what happens in a world where now let's just
00:29:09
say that the revenue of the government goes up
right but outcomes stay the same or get worse
00:29:16
and at the same time and you could claim that
that's effectively what's been happening over the
00:29:20
last 20 or 30 years right government revenues have
gone up impact has stayed the same or probably
00:29:24
been net negative but then at the same time you
have this you know program of quantitative easing
00:29:30
where then you can essentially print money
on demand and when you think about that it's
00:29:35
like wait a minute i am giving you money but then
you are also going to the photocopy machine with
00:29:40
my money to make more money and all of that total
money does less than what it did when it was half
00:29:47
that or a quarter or a third of it that's a very
scary realization i think that people you know
00:29:52
will eventually come to um and i don't know what
the answer to that is i you know i i think david
00:29:58
saxxypoo said it which is like you know the states
are this incredible a b test right because you
00:30:02
get to test like theories right and you have you
have now every complexion of theory you have like
00:30:07
you know the low tax states the no tax states the
mid tax dates you have high real estate taxes low
00:30:11
real estate taxes high estate tax whatever you
get every grab bag of incentives and you're gonna
00:30:17
see but the problem is that was assuming that
the federal government kind of mostly stayed
00:30:20
out of the way you have this massive overlay
yeah i just posted a chart in the the chat
00:30:26
that nick can put up which is federal spending
federal outlay is a percentage of gdp and it's
00:30:31
really interesting because federal outlays and
percent of gdp have generally been around the 20
00:30:38
line plus or minus a couple of percent since you
know the 1980s and last year in 2019 it was 20.7
00:30:47
percent it jumped to 31 under covid and it now
feels like we're trying to make this new level
00:30:55
of you know going from 20 to 30 permanent it's
like math math squaring well the the pro the
00:31:01
problem is the only time we did that in history
was in world war ii now we were trying to fight
00:31:05
the nazis which was worth spending the money on
yeah i would say that was a good use of capital
00:31:09
but it's very hard to step back right i mean what
starts out as temporary becomes permanent is that
00:31:14
kind of the concern well that's what that's what
milton friedman said is there's nothing quite
00:31:17
so permanent as a temporary government program
right but but what they're threatening to make
00:31:22
permanent is this new permanently higher
level of federal spending in the economy
00:31:26
and i think it's a very dangerous experiment
because it either takes tremendous money
00:31:32
printing to support it or a tremendous tax
burden and neither one of them is good for
00:31:36
the economy by the way you know again when bill
clinton left office i remember you know you can
00:31:40
go to the the time machine for whitehouse.gov
when he left in 2000 and he bragged about how
00:31:47
under his terms under his eight years as president
they reduced federal spending from 22 percent
00:31:54
to 18 of the economy can you imagine a democrat
today boasting of that or even a republican i mean
00:32:01
what who was the guy who was your guy who was like
uh the tea party people who there was somebody who
00:32:07
was like in charge of the settlement i don't
know who it was but it was just like we got to
00:32:11
cut spending there oh yeah ryan the speaker
the the speaker of the house paul ryan yeah
00:32:18
no you're right you're right based on this yes
spending restraints kind of gone out the window
00:32:23
in in both parties and the republican it did it
did happen under trump the republicans don't seem
00:32:28
to find their principles on spending unless and
until there's a democrat in the white house so
00:32:33
they definitely deserve their share of the blame
on this but but we do seem to be entering a new
00:32:37
territory here of you know this again levels of
spending we've never seen before it's incredible
00:32:44
it's absolutely the price the problem is it would
be so much better if we just said we're going to
00:32:47
do this one very specific thing with a huge number
attached to it like i would rather say we're going
00:32:53
to mars here's a trillion dollars we're cutting
student debt here's a trillion dollars we're going
00:33:01
to double down on cyber and we're going to get you
know completely pivot the military or something
00:33:05
and here's 500 new deal whatever something
aspirational that is not just anti-rich people
00:33:11
let's tackle right now we have we have labels we
have a label and then we have a spaghetti mess of
00:33:17
spending that just isn't really attached to what
the label means and none of it is accountable and
00:33:22
so you don't really get anything for it i know
this is a silly question but why wouldn't we
00:33:27
test this and say hey 20 40. there are numbers
between these two maybe we'll increase it two
00:33:35
percent a year for eight years i'm sorry what
happens this is the this is the other problem
00:33:40
with like this idea of american exceptionalism
we believe that we can't learn anything from
00:33:45
anybody else and that's also not true we actually
know what it looks like when you have government
00:33:50
as a massive portion of the economy and we also
know examples where government basically enables
00:33:55
human capital outcomes but remains relatively
you know small and fixed singapore right
00:34:02
there's this there's incredible yeah you know
there's this incredible example where i think uh
00:34:07
right when lee kuan yew became um the head of
singapore the gdp of singapore was the same as
00:34:13
the gdp of jamaica right and what you saw was
this complete just just complete divergence
00:34:19
in in these two countries and think about
this country which is basically this like
00:34:24
you know this little spot of land surrounded
you know and you know apolitical a religious
00:34:31
surrounded by these muslim countries and
they still thrived and they kicked ass
00:34:35
you know they were never invaded et cetera et
cetera and underneath that was this belief that
00:34:40
it's what you said freeberg where you focus on an
outcome you spend against the outcome and you try
00:34:45
to measure in a reasonable way and you double
down on the things that work and then on the
00:34:49
other hand if you look at europe europe is a good
example when you know spending sometimes for the
00:34:53
greater good in the best interest can run them up
and really what happens is you start to stagnate
00:34:59
yeah and singapore is only what six million people
i mean it's like ireland or norway or denmark i
00:35:05
mean it's this is not a huge place sounds like
we didn't solve any problems in that last piece
00:35:09
yeah we didn't solve it i mean i mean what
do we think is going to happen in four years
00:35:11
does donald does this give donald trump a clear
path into office if he said hey where are you
00:35:18
you know the worst case scenario is you see
what happened in france when they had that 75
00:35:22
super tax and then they introduced the wealth
tax and they had massive immigration of of uh
00:35:27
invested dollars out of the country and people
out of the country they did get rid of george that
00:35:32
was a bonus you know it's a process yeah at what
point how many red pills do you guys have to take
00:35:39
before you're willing to reassess your political
party because it seems obvious to me now look we
00:35:44
can talk about political parties hold on hold on
we can talk about we can talk about how bad the
00:35:49
republican party is but there's no question in my
mind that the democratic party all the energy the
00:35:54
base the activists and the politicians who have
the microphone they are woke socialists okay that
00:36:00
is the dominant ideology in the democratic party
and what biden is doing right now is catering to
00:36:05
that he's compromising he wasn't catering to
that until this point he he didn't put bernie
00:36:10
or elizabeth warren into any cabinet positions he
kind of marginalized them and now he's like okay
00:36:16
let's do something i mean would warren and
this is this no but jason i think you're right
00:36:21
this is why i think this is like a sacrificial
lamb and i don't think anything's gonna happen
00:36:24
i don't i think biden is a fundamental centrist
that's why i like him i think he's a boring
00:36:29
he's a stable he's a stable predictable figure
and that's i think what you want in the in the
00:36:34
presidency i i think that this is sort of like
okay you guys want a pound of flesh here you go
00:36:40
but i think he's so politically smart that
he probably does have a bunch of millennial
00:36:45
woke socialist whispering and chattering like hey
do this do that to the other but he's probably the
00:36:50
only one there who's smart enough to realize none
of this won't get passed you know it's not going
00:36:54
to muster enough support i don't know i think
mayden is not governing like a centrist right now
00:36:58
he's he's proposing you know what four trillion
of new spending you know new tax increases and
00:37:03
he's just getting started but look and i would
challenge this idea to slightly of him being
00:37:07
a centrist what i would say is he's always
tacked to the center of the democratic party
00:37:12
so i i do i i do think he's he's a triangular
triangulator and a calibrator he's not like
00:37:19
a conviction politician the way that uh bernie
sanders is or an elizabeth warren but what he's
00:37:24
talked to is the center of the democratic party
and the center of the democratic party has moved
00:37:28
very far left because all the activists have moved
to the left and so he's been dragged left remember
00:37:33
biden was clinton's floor manager in the senate
when he passed all this legislation and so now
00:37:39
biden is very far to the left of where biden was
in the 1990s and the reason for that is because
00:37:45
the democratic party has moved so once again i
guess you know my question to all of you guys is
00:37:50
what does it take how far does the democratic
party have to go to the left donald trump okay
00:37:55
donald trump i would i wouldn't i wouldn't call
this the problem i wouldn't call this as much of a
00:37:59
radical policy shift as i think it's being framed
i honestly think this is a natural and inevitable
00:38:05
consequence of the circumstances we find ourselves
in right now with respect to the spending level
00:38:09
the dependence we have on federal spending across
the board with respect to individual employment
00:38:14
and the economy the need for a variety of social
services to get us through this covet economic
00:38:19
collapse i just don't see another way out and i
feel like it's the natural course to do exactly
00:38:25
what's going on right now i think it's going to
pass i think something like it's going to pass
00:38:29
and i think something like it's going to pass
but i don't think it's going to pass yeah
00:38:33
you think it's going to be equidistant i'm not
saying it's good or bad i think obviously we
00:38:37
just find ourselves in the circumstance in this
country in this moment in time that this is the
00:38:42
only path i'm just not sure you can go in and go
slash a ton of spending right now and and you know
00:38:47
and anyone would win re-election or any you know
or most americans would be anything but unhappy
00:38:53
uh it's just it's just a consequence of where we
are let's play the glass half full here's a crazy
00:38:57
idea okay you know for example somebody like me
what i would think about which i think is is a
00:39:03
little it's crazy but i would do it is okay i'm
just going to move literally every single thing
00:39:10
every dollar that isn't nailed down into a
charitable vehicle and i will invest through
00:39:16
my charity because i still have to donate five
percent a year but then i can compound tax free
00:39:22
now i care more about the businesses that i'm a
part of and the progress that i can create so that
00:39:26
may be okay and i'll just pay myself a salary
to like fund my lifestyle but that could be a
00:39:30
way around this to me the biggest issue isn't how
much money i have personally the biggest issue is
00:39:36
how much money i will have to put back into the
world and the idea that then it goes to a place
00:39:41
where it's profligately spent in a way that isn't
accountable really bothers me that idea bothers
00:39:46
me a lot um david that would cause me to tack you
know more even more to the right if i could find
00:39:52
somebody who understood that principle because
what i don't want to have is you know in the
00:39:56
absence of social programs like the the problem
that the republicans leave is this no man's land
00:40:00
where then you're forced to believe that this
one man for yourself it's all about you you can
00:40:06
figure it out you know the rugged individualism
that's just not realistic like i i am a complete
00:40:14
byproduct of a social safety net and that should
exist and the problem is that republicans don't
00:40:19
give you that option to have then accountability
on spending and just somebody please just say that
00:40:24
i don't care what you call yourself yeah well
look i think you know that i think republicans
00:40:29
have gotten a lot more comfortable with the idea
of entitlements and the the social safety net i
00:40:34
don't really hear anyone opposing that anymore um
i mean it's the same things happened with like the
00:40:39
tories in in england you know no one's really
trying to roll back the social safety net we
00:40:45
need a republican messenger to come forward and
say listen we don't care you know who you love
00:40:51
what you smoke where you're from what you look
like you know we believe in an opportunity society
00:40:58
we want to spread that opportunity to everybody
but ultimately opportunity comes from the private
00:41:01
sector we're going to have a strong social safety
net and we're going to basically give everybody
00:41:07
the the most opportunity to participate by giving
them a great education that's basically what the
00:41:11
agenda should be yeah i'm in i'm in i mean
i i to you even the starting line hallelujah
00:41:16
i like it i mean i i would i probably because
your boy tried to dismantle obamacare you know
00:41:22
trump like trump i'm a never trumper
obviously but i'm kind of purple i would
00:41:27
you know i'm considering austin or miami as a
place to locate myself and a decision like this
00:41:32
makes it easier i would never do that i'm actually
very i love texas i love austin austin's the kind
00:41:39
of purple i like like i like personal freedom
and i like what you're saying like love who
00:41:44
you love smoke what you want what year did
you move to the bay area five six years ago
00:41:50
i was in la for 10 new york for 30. i feel like
it's a last-in first-out thing that's going on
00:41:54
right now with respect to immigration out of
california i've been here since 2000 i'm not
00:41:58
leaving yeah i've been here my since i was six
years old in california and i'm not leaving and i
00:42:03
and i've been in the bay area since college so
i'm not you know i feel like it's a lot harder
00:42:07
to leave when you've been here longer it's a lot
easier to leave when you've been here less time
00:42:11
that certainly seems to be the pattern i've seen
amongst friends and colleagues with respect to
00:42:15
leaving the state uh all right uh the chauvin
trial uh came back guilty all three charges
00:42:23
what is there to even talk about here what is
there to talk about i don't i don't even know
00:42:26
i mean let me show you like can i get can i
give it can i give a shout out to um a really
00:42:32
good friend of mine his name is neil katjal he
was the former solicitor general under obama
00:42:36
um he uh he was uh one of the uh prosecutors that
that worked on that case um he's a he's a partner
00:42:44
at hogan's um runs a supreme court practice here
but basically went and did this pro bono trial
00:42:50
uh on behalf of the state of minnesota by
working with the the the district attorney
00:42:55
and i just i just want to say neil proud of you
it's an incredible thing um thank you for keeping
00:43:01
america safe okay i mean uh you know what's crazy
so like but then you know the same day there was
00:43:09
there was a shooting of this on this unfortunate
shooting of this i think i think she was 16 year
00:43:13
old 16 years old this black girl in ohio and then
you know lebron tweeted something out and then
00:43:18
lebron had to basically delete the tweet because
it was causing people to go absolutely crazy
00:43:22
well i mean each of these situations is unique
and in that situation somebody was going to stab
00:43:28
another person the cop didn't know what was going
to happen and you know in another time period like
00:43:33
maybe that would have been saving somebody's
life who had potentially been stabbed and
00:43:39
you know the george floyd i think you got to
reserve judgment on each of these until you
00:43:43
get all the information but the information here
was just super conclusive like the the gymnastics
00:43:49
ben shapiro and some of these far right people
had to go through to say what you saw in george
00:43:55
floyd being murdered was not what happened well
that's that's performative theater trying to get
00:44:00
people to watch something and it was i mean it was
just gross to watch might as well call it what it
00:44:04
is like that's acting i feel like probably if
anybody if any one of us found ben shapiro in
00:44:09
a bar and just hung out and had a beer you'd find
out that he was like he was like the meryl streep
00:44:14
of our generation you know like this incredible
act what does that mean like an incredible actor
00:44:22
all these guys are just trying to figure out how
to say that this was a travesty of justice and
00:44:27
i'm like i don't know what you saw but yeah
let me explain where they went wrong okay so
00:44:33
so look i i agree with you guys fundamentally this
was an easy look this this was uh you know finding
00:44:39
a fact by the jury guilty on all charges obvious
right the tape shows it his uh the chauvin's
00:44:47
record as a cop numerous complaints
you know this was a bad apple this was
00:44:51
a bad cop he deserved to be convicted end of
story that's where the analysis should end but
00:44:57
of course the people on cable news would have
nothing to say if that was the end of it and
00:45:02
so look i think both the right and the left kind
of went off the rails on this where you know the
00:45:07
right kind of went off the rails is you had
well what happened is you had maxine waters
00:45:12
you know come out and while the the jury
was still deliberating she was basically
00:45:17
calling for activists to get more confrontation
on the streets if the verdict went the wrong way
00:45:22
and so then the defense not helpful right
and so that so then the the defense made a
00:45:27
motion saying that uh this this was affecting the
deliberations there's no proof of that the jewel
00:45:34
the judge ruled against that motion but he did the
judge reiterated his desire for the politicians to
00:45:40
stop talking about the case right and so then what
happened is the the right-wing commentators were
00:45:46
criticizing maxine waters and implying that that
there was an effort to try and coerce the jury
00:45:52
and there's no proof of that right and and and and
i think there's the mistake is in somehow framing
00:45:59
derek chauvin as like a sacrificial lamb to the
mob he was not he was guilty he deserved it that
00:46:06
being said i do think that the judge had a point
that it would be helpful if these politicians
00:46:11
would just stay out of it stop commenting on it
while the jury is deliberating i think there was
00:46:16
a legit point there um but you know the the the
left made some some weird comments as well you had
00:46:23
nancy pelosi made this really bizarre very
strange i think that was like a slip up of like
00:46:29
just trying to say something not i mean being
charitable she was trying to say something nice
00:46:34
that george floyd is gonna create a wave
of justice and that would be that's a great
00:46:39
idea she said yeah she said thank you george
floyd for sacrificing your life for for justice
00:46:44
yeah yeah that didn't come out exactly as she
ended up no no i mean because look george floyd
00:46:48
did not go out that day intending to be a martyr
um no you know and um and so it it sort of gay
00:46:57
it expressed kind of what she's thinking which
is how am i going to use this politically
00:47:02
uh you know train yeah it's about pretty great
i think you're right it came out gross for sure
00:47:08
i think that's how they're trained it's kind of
like you know if you if you take a finely tuned
00:47:12
athlete in a sport and give them you know they're
they're just they're reactive because they're so
00:47:17
instinctual i think it's kind of like this she's
an incredibly finely trained athlete and her
00:47:21
domain is politics and so you know every what is
that phrase uh uh every crisis is an opportunity
00:47:28
kind of thing so yeah i mean they all flew
there to be there for the for the trial etc and
00:47:34
that couldn't have helped the judge with you
know the impartial jury and maybe that causes
00:47:38
a mistrial i mean i don't know david you're an
attorney is there any chance on appeal that a
00:47:43
maxi water quote like that could result in well
the judge actually said that the the defense
00:47:52
could reserve that issue and use it on appeal so
yeah they could use it but but i don't think it's
00:47:56
good i don't think it's going to work unless they
can prove that somehow the jury was contaminated
00:48:02
by what they were hearing on tv the dutch's
instructions were pretty clear like i watched
00:48:06
a couple of the ending days and he's very clear
like he's like guys i don't want you to watch
00:48:10
the news you know stuff like that he was very
directive in making sure that they tried to be as
00:48:14
uncontaminated as possible so i think the
surface area for an appeal is pretty thin here
00:48:19
the fact that the police chief and everybody who
worked with him said like this is not standard
00:48:24
this and they just threw him right under the bus
they didn't want to be associated with this in
00:48:28
any way by the way well you know they're
they're not going to be able to hide much longer
00:48:31
though because the doj said they're opening an
investigation at the minnesota police force so i
00:48:35
think they're just trying to crack open the police
reform in that state and just get those guys on
00:48:39
the right side it's going to be it you know but
again here's this other issue where it's like okay
00:48:44
this is where like there it's very difficult
for the federal government to do anything but
00:48:49
you know so whatever they try to do won't really
result in what what you want to have because every
00:48:54
state again adjacent to your point has completely
different political ideologies nobody wants to
00:48:58
behave the same everybody wants to be independent
everybody wants to get reelected as not cow towing
00:49:03
to somebody else and so you just don't get these
consistent outcomes and then people are forced to
00:49:08
vote with their feet and move across the country
you know to get a bunch of simple things that
00:49:13
i think should be pretty consistent across the
entire country the thing that i found particularly
00:49:17
deranged was these people who are like listen
he's a fentanyl addict he's an opioid addict
00:49:21
which by the way there are tons of affluent people
everybody in this country is addicted to opioids
00:49:27
fentanyls are everywhere fentanyl is everywhere
and then you're trying to say like because he had
00:49:32
that addiction that in some way that negates
the person kneeling on his back while he's in
00:49:36
handcuffs like you're you have a duty as a police
officer to take care of somebody when he's in
00:49:42
handcuffs how is he any threat in any way and then
to listen to scott adams and ben shapiro on these
00:49:48
absolute pieces of garbage try to say oh you know
there was the fentanyl that killed him it's like
00:49:55
uh yeah no the person on his back kneeling on
him for nothing because it's about it's about
00:50:00
ratings now uh switching topics and to talk about
ratings something a little lighter um the most
00:50:06
interesting popcorn thing that i watched uh
was the hulu documentary you did watch the
00:50:12
hula documentary on we work i'll be working out
oh i got to watch it i got to watch i haven't
00:50:16
seen it yet yeah oh it is it is in a word i think
i think the good i think the right word is like
00:50:22
outrageous i think the guy who stole it jason
was the lawyer who they interviewed yep he he
00:50:27
had some incredible kind of like one minors
yeah uh well i think it's yeah the the i had a
00:50:33
g i i'll be honest and this may sound crazy but i
actually had um a fair amount of sympathy for adam
00:50:40
newman and watching it i think that he at least
in the documentary it came out that he you know
00:50:46
not not that he didn't create this issue but that
i think it was a little overly scapegoated because
00:50:51
it's very hard for you to incinerate 45 billion
dollars without the complicity at a minimum of
00:50:56
your board of directors right and and a bunch of
like extremely well-heeled thoughtful investors
00:51:02
um and so there was just there was just
this so much complicity in this thing so
00:51:06
if anything my takeaway was that he he
shares he shares the blame with a lot of
00:51:11
other people and it's not it wasn't you know
him and him only but my gosh that documentary
00:51:16
some of the things guys are just uh they're
fabulous this is this is always true in these
00:51:20
businesses that end up with um you know bad actors
that are enabled right i mean it's been the case
00:51:27
in public and public success stories
and failures right i mean there's uh
00:51:31
a cult of personality the personality provides
the the high beta personality provides the alpha
00:51:38
and it can also pro it also could
provide like a thera notes outcome and
00:51:42
you know the thing that when you'll see when
you watch this is i don't know if you guys
00:51:46
watch the vow about that nexium cult which is just
equally loathsome horrible people behaving badly
00:51:54
but he really targeted young people to work there
and indoctrinated him into this we're changing the
00:51:59
world and then there were no adults there and
you see him behind the scenes when he's talking
00:52:05
at the ipo roadshow and he's having basically
a panic attack and he's psychotic i mean he
00:52:11
was really deranged and they have this video of
him trying to get through the ipo roadshow what
00:52:27
deranged is a big word i don't i'm not sure that
it's deranged but i think it's like it's juicy
00:52:32
it's uh it's got his wife and like that
whole thing like we school they're like we
00:52:37
have to democratize education for 60 000
a year have you guys have you guys ever
00:52:43
have you guys ever regretted enabling um you
know quirky personality entrepreneurs that
00:52:48
you've backed and then you've regretted it later
yeah so um the problem is it's hard it's hard
00:52:53
to know in the midst of it you know i guess it's
like kind of like that line like the line between
00:52:58
genius and insanity is very thin um but yeah i
mean the the one thing i will say is i've only
00:53:03
ever had one issue of outright fraud um and so you
know well no i mean in hundreds of in hundreds of
00:53:12
companies that i've that i've invested in luckily
i i've only uh i've only seen one issue where you
00:53:19
know the ceo was extremely i don't know aggressive
in how they accounted for and booked revenue
00:53:27
and you know this is where one thing that we
don't have at the early stage companies we
00:53:31
don't have the check and balance of a reporting
infrastructure and a third party watchdog and all
00:53:36
these other people and so you know you guys all
know this when we go in and we sit in a meeting
00:53:42
in a board meeting and you know the entrepreneur
puts slides up there is an inherent 100
00:53:48
categorical belief that they're that they aren't
lying right like you don't you don't even have
00:53:52
to check that assumption it's just assumed that
nobody's lying you know good or bad we're just
00:53:56
presenting the data and i had one case where the
guy lied and it wasn't one was it was and our cfo
00:54:04
and you know our team figured it out and um you
know there were other investors and it was uh we
00:54:09
all were just really shocked and we had to kind of
clean it up as best we could and i have literally
00:54:15
a dozen uh and they we didn't wind up investing
in i think 10 of the 12. and the reason is we
00:54:22
took diligence to your point jamal like do you
how do you even know in a board meeting i just
00:54:26
said screw it i'm going to build a diligence team
and we ask people for all their bank statements
00:54:31
and for their itunes account and for their google
analytics and if a company doesn't give those to
00:54:36
us we just know that something's up and we
figure it out before we invest because the
00:54:41
two times we did get dinged on this we had one
where somebody was giving themselves a loan we
00:54:47
did we just basically have a diligence list that
says give us the incorporation docs and all these
00:54:52
bank statements now somebody could fraudulently
change a bank statement that is possible so there
00:54:58
it depends on nobody's people want to go with
the fraud but did you guys ever like enable a
00:55:02
personality that was just like so over the top and
then you're like oh [ __ ] this is actually gonna
00:55:07
this is actually an explosion like it's
a total disaster my top three investments
00:55:13
that's a good point there's a good point right
yeah so because okay so i wrote about this in my
00:55:18
blog post blitz fail about the the sort of how
yeah how founder psychology can actually cause a
00:55:23
company to go off the rails whose benefits the the
thing the thing is that founder founders do need
00:55:30
to be much more aggressive than the average person
you know we like to think that a quality that a
00:55:35
personality trait like aggressiveness there's
like some sort of normal distribution of it
00:55:39
and you kind of want to be you know somewhere in
the middle of the curve and it's actually not true
00:55:44
you want founders to be much more aggressive than
the average person because if they're not they're
00:55:49
just not going to persevere and push hard enough
right and j i mean we saw this with with uber
00:55:54
right i mean tk was a super aggressive personality
the company would not have been as successful how
00:55:59
do you not push that hard and so the curve in
the real world it's not a normal distribution it
00:56:05
looks more like a curve where there are returns
to aggressiveness and they're keeping increasing
00:56:09
returns to it until suddenly the person goes too
far and then they jump the shark and the whole
00:56:14
thing craters can can i say something like you
know having been in the engine room with zuck in
00:56:20
a critical moment zuck was an aggressive guy but
he wasn't over the top and he wasn't just this
00:56:25
like crazy weirdo personality he wasn't enabling
sexual harassment he was doing any of that stuff
00:56:31
would you say yeah he was he was he was he was
an intellectually incisive he was an aggressive
00:56:37
thinker so this is why my reaction to david's
question is i haven't backed [ __ ] because i
00:56:42
just think that that archetype doesn't work zuck
is a very cool analytical personality there are
00:56:47
these founders that you know we um i've heard the
term wild stallion to uh to describe them where
00:56:54
they are you know they're like these these wild
stallions they have tremendous upside but they're
00:56:59
also a little bit you know um wild and unless they
sort of learn yeah i mean they're they're they're
00:57:07
they're they've got a lot of talent right uh the
the talent is the the amount of talent you have is
00:57:13
like the horse you're riding on and some people
are riding on a bronco they got a lot of talent
00:57:17
but it might just i just think the real the real
edge in investing is figuring out what is bluster
00:57:23
and window dressing and show and what is actually
aggressive thinking like john and patrick collison
00:57:29
there's zero bluster with those guys yeah those
guys shop guys that company zero that's gonna be
00:57:35
the most valuable valuable company that's private
right now besides these guys are these guys are
00:57:40
incredible intellectually thoughtful killers
right that's what they are that's true yeah they
00:57:44
out-think everybody but there's also a maturation
process that a lot of founders go through right i
00:57:48
mean the colsons and zuck i think got very mature
very young i think there's other founders that it
00:57:54
takes them a while to get more polished get more
disciplined reign in the you know those emotions
00:58:03
i'm not saying they're fraudulent we don't want
to bet on fraudulent founders but some founders
00:58:07
need to learn how to harness the talent they have
yeah i agree i agree with that and and those are
00:58:14
the ones where it's very hard to know earlier in
their career whether to bet on them or not right
00:58:19
because they they may get it under control or
they may not it's you can't tell at the beginning
00:58:23
here's the analogy we use internally it's like
being professor x and the x-men you could have
00:58:28
a jean grey or a wolverine and like everybody's
got a different superpower but you need to teach
00:58:32
them how to use that superpower so they don't
self-destruct or bifurcate the other way right
00:58:38
they could be magneto right you could you
could go the other way i'm not sure i get all
00:58:42
the references but i hear you well i mean i'm
kind of shocked given how much of a huge nerd
00:58:48
you are that you don't understand the x-men jason
look at that movie i love that movie with the guy
00:58:52
who's made of all the rocks and the little tree
guy who's his buddy that's right guardians of
00:58:57
the galaxy yes i think i think jason's favorite
character is the blob is that the one if that's
00:59:07
what are you talking about how many how
many cubano sandwiches are you having
00:59:11
look at your face how many
cro no croquette does sacks
00:59:25
what is your health plan are you uh now that
we're coming out of covert are you running
00:59:30
right what's the point you do look a
little bloated you look like uh you
00:59:35
look like a puffed fish oh geez
i i need to lose like 20 pounds
00:59:41
i'm down 12 for my peak of the covered peak i'm
feeling good just get a personal trainer speaking
00:59:46
of covert what the hell is going on in india oh
my god it's scary i thought the whole thing was
00:59:51
we would they were taking hydroxychloroquine
for totally different reasons and this is why
00:59:55
it had some immunity or that it was hot i mean
there was a million reasons of why they were not
00:59:59
going to get hit and then now they're surging
and we have 60 million shots on the shelf
01:00:05
and the number of people getting shots is going
down this is america's chance to use instead of
01:00:11
battleships and nuclear weapons we can use this
covet to shape global policy we should be getting
01:00:18
vaccines to other countries and be once again the
shining light of the entire planet and humanity
01:00:26
why are we not bringing shots to india now we
have so many extras i'm not sure i'm just trying
01:00:31
to pull up the india vax data per day i'm not sure
that there's a um that's as much the issue right
01:00:40
i mean it is scary to watch their their i
mean you're you're our our go-to science guy
01:00:44
freeburg tell us what we're looking at here
on this chart i mean the daily covey cases
01:00:48
are now hitting 250 000. 300 000 a day jason right
now it broke 300 oh my lord and the united states
01:00:56
has gotten down to like 50 60 india 800. india's
now past the peak of the us you know india is
01:01:02
now seeing more cases per day than any country
has seen worldwide during the whole pandemic
01:01:08
at over um you know 300 000 a day right now and
it's um you know it doesn't seem to be letting
01:01:14
up and we're now questioning whether it's testing
that's the limiting factor in terms of reporting
01:01:17
on these cases so it's uh it's pretty nasty
now there's a famous indian politician who
01:01:25
who had been double vaxxed who claims
that he is coveted positive as is his
01:01:31
mother and sister and so it's also creating a
little bit of a concern in the market about um
01:01:37
you know getting coveted now he doesn't seem to
be having a severe case um which is you know one
01:01:43
of the the kind of important things to take note
of in vaccination is it's not necessarily binary
01:01:50
but it's certainly making a a lot of creating
a lot of fear uh as a result of his um kind
01:01:55
of public statement about this this isn't just
about cases either um 30 days ago they were at
01:02:02
200 deaths a day and uh i mean tragically they're
at 2100. so it's 10xed in 30 days if it 10x is
01:02:10
again that's 20 000 people a day dying this is
a different level than any other country has
01:02:16
experienced tragic and they don't at the end at
the end of the day the hospital's hospitals to
01:02:21
handle this do they this could become a crisis of
epic proportions at the end of the day a country's
01:02:26
success in battling cove it's going to be about
how fast they can get their population vaccinated
01:02:30
it's very simple right i mean israel was first
they got everyone vaccinated now their cases are
01:02:36
down to almost nothing the us is doing
pretty well although there's some
01:02:40
room for concern we were doing you know close to
four million vaccinations a day now we're at like
01:02:45
three three and a half they're starting to slip
a little bit um and that doesn't do with johnson
01:02:51
and johnson right that has to do with people not
showing up for appointments yeah and i think you
01:02:55
got to blame the media a little bit because they
keep writing all these vaccine scare stories about
01:03:00
you know how this person or that person the
vaccine punched through and they got sick
01:03:04
despite getting the vaccine they keep saying they
keep selling all this like you know covet um scary
01:03:10
and porn you know the the the do you know what i
noticed the other day on cnn this is how insincere
01:03:16
and ratings desperate they are when they put up
their covet stats they put up cumulative cases
01:03:22
and cumulative deaths that's what they obsess
on and it's like hey dummies we know what you're
01:03:28
doing here you're trying to scare people you
should show the graph of the debts going down and
01:03:33
then why can't you take your mask off if you're
vaccinated and you're outside let's give it a
01:03:38
reward you were talking about this last week yeah
nate silver had a really good tweet about this he
01:03:42
said that wearing a mask after you're vaccinated
is now it's like the the blue equivalent of the
01:03:47
red magga hat where it's completely performative
to say hey i'm on team blue you know even though
01:03:53
like scientifically it's meaningless i it's like
the press they keep talking about this possibility
01:03:59
that even after you're vaccinated and you could
somehow you know tr keep transmitting the virus
01:04:05
to other people look viruses i mean free
breaking is better than me but viruses do not
01:04:10
have in themselves the machinery for replication
right they have to take over your cells hijack
01:04:15
your cells machinery to replicate themselves
so first they have to infect somebody then
01:04:20
that person gets you know gets the virus starts
producing a lot of it then they start shedding it
01:04:25
if you don't get really sick you're not gonna be
shedding a lot of the virus you're not gonna be
01:04:29
transmitting it to a lot of other people and
you know they talk about this this possibility
01:04:34
as if it's like a real possibility that people
could still be transmitting the virus after
01:04:39
they're vaccinated i mean it's not a statistically
relevant possibility right it comes down to this
01:04:44
interpretation of everything being binary
and the reality is that all of this is on um
01:04:50
you know a a statistical curve or a kind of a
grayscale and you know sax's point is 100 correct
01:04:57
that the probability of someone who's been double
vaccinated getting infected getting infected and
01:05:03
then being infectious in a meaningful way is
so remote um that it is not even worth kind of
01:05:09
considering uh in a way and and being double
vaccinated gives you such a significant
01:05:15
typically right not for everyone right all
immune systems are different and some of
01:05:19
what we we might be seeing is the difference
in kind of how people develop immunity but it
01:05:24
is such a rare case that one could have a severe
infection after getting a you know a vaccination
01:05:31
is such that it it shouldn't even be considered
and kind of you know mentioned as being a reason
01:05:36
for continuing to wear masks and not
gather and not do things and so you
01:05:39
know we started out as sacs pointed out and i
think this is such a true and important point
01:05:43
we started out with this like immediate politic
politicization of what's the right thing to do
01:05:48
to reduce the spread of the virus and then that
became the mainstay for that political affiliation
01:05:54
and now the transition of the new world that
we live in where most people are vaccinated
01:05:59
we have a better understanding of the science and
the statistics and the mechanisms of transmission
01:06:03
we hold on and we grasp on to that initiating kind
of belief system that was correct at the time but
01:06:11
isn't correct anymore and it seems so difficult
to get people to shift their mind this kind of
01:06:17
this behavior is an ignorant behavior
and you see it in so many manifestations
01:06:21
um uh right now uh in particular with respect to
masks and behavior after vaccination and so on
01:06:27
uh and it's uh it's really brutal to watch um
but we obviously digress a bit from the indian uh
01:06:32
circuit the india circumstance which is a really
nasty one so it looks like why why now and not
01:06:38
a year ago you know it's it's not clear right so
there's um someone uh uh provided a a indication
01:06:44
today that there may be as many as uh somewhere
between 100 and 200 unique variants that we're
01:06:49
seeing emerge in india so there may be a a lot of
interesting very interesting technically but not
01:06:55
obviously for for human life but a lot of dramatic
um variants or significant variants uh that might
01:07:02
be increasing the the infectiousness right now
um and uh and in particular uh you know behavior
01:07:08
has shifted in a way that's enabling you know
some of these transmissions to occur you know
01:07:12
a lot of people let their guard down and so on
in a way that maybe they weren't six months ago
01:07:16
um and uh you know there may be some forced
evolution associated with partial vaccination
01:07:22
totally a theory right now where you know 110
million doses have been given in india so far
01:07:28
so you know in order for a virus to succeed the
viral variants that are going to infect more
01:07:33
likely um you know through a partially transmitted
a partially vaccinated population are the ones
01:07:38
that are winning out so there's a lot of you know
confounding factors here we're not really sure
01:07:43
um but it is uh it is pretty brutal um what is uh
what is going on um i will say like this notion
01:07:50
that vaccination does not prevent uh protection
against variants is not a binary statement either
01:07:57
this is really really important i've been
wanting to say this for a couple of of our shows
01:08:01
when you get this vaccine um what you're doing
is you're training your cells you're giving
01:08:06
yourself the rna to print the spike protein
and that protein is now in your body everyone's
01:08:11
immune system then reacts differently to create
antibodies to that protein the antibodies that
01:08:16
chamoth makes and jason makes and sex makes and
i make are all going to be different but if you
01:08:21
had to pick whose would be better yeah i can tell
you saks is probably going to be worse off but the
01:08:27
most sluggish for sure they're the slowest yeah
but there are there are likely tens of thousands
01:08:32
of novel variants that our b cells will make that
will that will bind to that spike protein and get
01:08:38
rid of it and we will each have many hundreds or
potentially thousands of novel antibodies that our
01:08:42
immune system will make so keep that in mind you
now have a portfolio of antibodies that your body
01:08:47
is producing to that spike protein so now when a
when a covid when a stars cov2 virus shows up in
01:08:53
your body some of those proteins some of those
antibodies are going to be really effective at
01:08:57
getting rid of it some of them are not now the
protein in the sars cov2 virus changes slightly
01:09:03
some of the other antibodies you have are going
to be effective and some of the other ones are not
01:09:07
and it is that portfolio that is um that is going
to change sorry that portfolio that is going to
01:09:12
define your success at fighting off a specific
variant of sars cov2 where the spike protein is
01:09:19
changing slightly with each variant right so these
variants change the composition of the protein
01:09:23
the antibodies that you have are going to be
you know more or less successful depending on
01:09:27
how that variant changes and that's um where there
may be cases where the number of antibodies that
01:09:33
you are producing or the success of the antibodies
that you particularly have are a little bit lower
01:09:37
for a particularly new variant it doesn't
mean that you're going to have an infection
01:09:41
that's going to be a runaway infection in
your body it means that it might take you
01:09:44
longer or it might be a little bit harder for
you to clear that particular variant given the
01:09:49
repertoire of antibodies that you've produced
and that's why this isn't that's why this isn't
01:09:53
binary right it could be that it's like hey
this variant shows up boom instantly i got rid
01:09:57
of it i don't have any infection but someone else
might have like you know maybe a a slight bit of
01:10:02
um uh you know there might be a couple days where
they'll feel a cold as your body's clearing it out
01:10:06
and the measure of this is this um this
neutralizing titer which is the where they
01:10:11
take people's blood with all of their antibodies
in it and they put these different variants in
01:10:15
and they can measure how effective your antibodies
are getting rid of that new variant um and the
01:10:20
the less effective your antibodies are the higher
this this this tighter needs to be and as a result
01:10:26
it could be a little bit longer a little bit
harder for you to get rid of that virus and so
01:10:30
so again like when viral variants start to emerge
in the population and as they kind of take off
01:10:35
um and become more dominant it doesn't mean that
we don't have immunity it means that immunity
01:10:40
might be slightly affected um but not not it's not
one or zero right because you've got hundreds or
01:10:45
thousands of antibodies to fight against covid uh
in your body and i think that's really important
01:10:50
so we should you know while there may be some
variants that might be what we call variance
01:10:53
of concern meaning they can kind of slip away a
little bit from most of the antibodies you have
01:10:58
it doesn't mean you're not going to be able
to fight them off with the antibodies and so
01:11:01
i don't know if that was too technical or
too difficult to understand but i think it's
01:11:04
really important it makes total sense yeah yeah
and and and one thing just to add to that is
01:11:09
is that most of the variants that the press
keeps reporting with alarm that are somehow
01:11:15
that that basically are going to be vaccine
proof they turn out not to be you know that
01:11:20
we they're very shortly uh there comes out a new
article basically saying that the vaccines work
01:11:27
and so the press keeps reporting these isolated
cases as proof of something that's not actually
01:11:32
true yeah i mean this is i just want to give the
press um a kind of i just want an accounting for
01:11:38
the press in the last 30 days one obsessing about
every single shooting and then inspiring more
01:11:46
shootings when you obsess about these mass
shootings you inspire more of them it is a
01:11:50
proven fact it is inducing people to do this more
it's not exactly correlated but there is proof
01:11:58
about this same thing with suicides that's why we
don't cover any young people killing themselves
01:12:02
in the bay area in a certain town that we all know
had a rash of them or we don't cover suicides on
01:12:08
the golden gate bridge anymore because when they
used to cover them and put it on the cover of the
01:12:12
chronicle two more people would jump off the next
week number two they were obsessing about riots i
01:12:19
mean i don't know if you turned on the tv during
the deliberations they were absolutely gleeful
01:12:25
about the potential of trouble happening and
that of course incense more people to go out
01:12:32
and see what's going on because you're going
to get on tv and because other people are
01:12:36
doing it and humans model other humans and then
finally with the goddamn johnson and johnson
01:12:42
eight people have blood cuts nobody died am
i correct in that and the one person died one
01:12:47
person died okay so we don't even know and
then they obsess about that for days like
01:12:53
you can't cover these things wall to wall and
not think that they you don't have culpability
01:12:58
the cnns the foxes et cetera you're obsessing
over these things and it's scaring people to not
01:13:03
take vaccines it's in sending people who are crazy
you're dog whistling crazy people to go get a gun
01:13:08
and to use that as a way to get famous and you're
doing the same thing you know with it with these
01:13:14
um you know riots in the streets we're all in the
opinion business um that's the but but the problem
01:13:22
is when they just when they don't just hype things
but they actually give you factually incorrect
01:13:26
information because you know it's they're trying
to scare people into getting higher ratings you
01:13:31
know fear important it's often framing david which
is a different thing than lying about statistics
01:13:36
they would say we're not lying about the
statistics that's how many people died of covid
01:13:40
but what they're doing is they're framing the
cumulative number to make you scared today 400
01:13:44
000 people have died from cove but it's like no
over 14 months 400 people thousand have covered
01:13:49
700 people died today and that's the lowest number
since november but that wouldn't get more people
01:13:54
to tune in i want to tell you guys something
it's frustrating yeah uh i'm vaccinated um
01:14:02
i want to see you i want to hug you keep your
shirt on it's uh it's 5 30 p.m and i've been
01:14:09
uh working since 5 00 a.m this morning oh is
that what that look is exactly exhausted i came
01:14:16
back from easter vacation guys and i've been
up between either at 5 00 a.m or 6 a.m every
01:14:22
[ __ ] you're working hard you're working hard i
am grinding but i am tired all right let's wrap
01:14:28
here when we as we wrap what what's going on just
because people have been asking um what's going
01:14:32
on with the scc and spax and and just some more
reporting or something because i was watching
01:14:37
cnbc and they said hey you're doing everything
right but there's a lot of other people doing
01:14:41
things wrong explain to us what's going on uh it's
i mean it's a it's a very specific um accounting
01:14:47
issue which is that some space many specs and in
fact many companies let's just put it that way not
01:14:52
just backs but many companies use warrants and the
prevailing guidance on certain warrants was that
01:14:58
they were equity and basically that gets put into
a balance sheet statement where you have equities
01:15:04
assets and liabilities and you know it sits on
one side and basically what they said was they
01:15:10
issued some refined guidance that said actually
in these specific cases these should be really
01:15:14
listed as liabilities so then it needs to move
from this column to that column but when that
01:15:19
when you do that you go through you know a bunch
of cascading implications and effects and you know
01:15:24
revisions and restatements and so that's what
the that's what the entire securities industry
01:15:29
is dealing with right now which was um you know
this guidance by the sec and the implications so
01:15:34
that was on the 12th i mean just so you know today
we just filed the updated um all of our updated
01:15:39
docs plus the updated s4 for sofi so we were able
to work around the clock and just kind of get it
01:15:44
done and hopefully what we've also done is create
a a bit of a way forward and a path that other
01:15:49
folks can use to kind of like accelerate their
their progress but um it's definitely created um
01:15:55
a ton of work um but uh but we're i think
we're i think we found the right answer so
01:16:00
ultimately good for you because you want to see
it's buttoned up yeah and also i think like the
01:16:06
simpler path forward so i mean if you just think
about capital market stability for a moment like
01:16:10
warrant coverage should probably go away number
one right so take all the warrants to zero
01:16:14
second thing that should happen is that uh you
know i think this is an opportunity to take a
01:16:18
step back and figure out how to really make sure
that the spak sponsors are of the highest quality
01:16:22
somebody told me this incredible thing today i am
one of five groups that put up any money when we
01:16:28
do a pipe in our deals meaning he said to me 95
of sponsors put up literally a zero in the game
01:16:35
z row and so of course you're going to have you
know extremely loose underwriting requirements
01:16:40
if that's the case and so you know the idea that
i'm thinking about uh which someone proposed to
01:16:45
me which i think is very clever is this idea
that you know you earn more of the promote uh
01:16:50
more money you put up right so for example like
you know um you know in so far i think we put in
01:16:56
275 million dollars um so i mean we really you
know um that's a meaningful commitment and it
01:17:04
closes the gap between you know what your equity
is issued at and what investors are buying at
01:17:10
and that's very healthy right and so i think
there's all these mechanisms that will clean
01:17:14
up the stock market we need to have a much more
refined criteria to allow people to be sponsors
01:17:23
and we need to make sponsors in a position where
they must put in money so that they actually do
01:17:29
the work if you get something for free let's be
honest you won't do the work if you're forced
01:17:34
to write a check so you're gonna really think
about it show me an incentive i'll show you
01:17:37
the outcome and this happened on angel list where
in the beginning days of angel list you had some
01:17:43
angels quote unquote who didn't have any money so
they put a thousand or two thousand into a deal
01:17:48
then they would have five hundred thousand come
behind them and so you had this 500 to one ratio
01:17:53
of dollars to skin in the game
and it was like well why wouldn't
01:17:57
a syndicate lead put every company out there and
not even put it you know they have no skill which
01:18:02
is why when you have a venture fund i don't
know what they expect us to put in typically
01:18:06
well the problem two funds are one to two percent
i was twenty five percent well one to two percent
01:18:11
is it can be pretty significant if you're doing a
fund every three years i'm doing this and it's it
01:18:15
winds up being millions of dollars for me but i'm
happy to do it because i believe in my own ability
01:18:19
all right as we wrap anybody have a plug or
anything they want to let people know about oh i
01:18:23
i want to talk about this one little thing i just
uh not to talk about it but i would like to tell
01:18:27
you guys to read it because it is so interesting
basically like european soccer tried to incite
01:18:33
a revolt where like the top teams across all the
different leagues came together to try to create a
01:18:39
super league but it ended up like they were like
a band of evil villains and like fans erupted
01:18:44
everybody erupted and then you know it
existed for 24 hours but in that 24 hours
01:18:50
it looked like a complete rewriting of sports
and sports like uh laws and you know um
01:18:57
it was an incredible thing there's an article
in the new york times i'll post it in here and
01:19:00
uh folks want to read it it's really really [ __ ]
funny and that will be on season two of ted lasso
01:19:06
i don't know if you guys watched tim cook's um
keynote this week with the new imacs which are
01:19:12
really beautiful um he was so excited about
ted lasso and ted last was a great show but
01:19:18
i mean it literally is the the apple uh
show did anybody you guys see ted lasso yet
01:19:23
what is it the television show you guys haven't
seen ted lasso the tv show yet is it on nbc or
01:19:28
cbs or what channel what channel is it on tv plus
whatever that is channel 6 is it on channel 6 tv
01:19:34
plus you got to go on your apple tv and then find
an apple tv plus on your tv and you'll find it
01:19:40
eventually it's one of their paid you know they
have their own netflix competitor called apple
01:19:45
tv plus so on your phone if you type apple
tv you'll have apple tv tvs i have apple tvs
01:19:51
behind my tv no no but there's apple tv plus
which is their netflix so this is a better is
01:19:56
it a better apple tv no no no it's content
it's a content subscription you could have
01:20:02
they just they screwed that part up um hey shout
out um i just wanted to get uh sorry so who's
01:20:08
who's ted lasso ted lasso is a jason sedakis
comedy that is incredibly heartwarming about
01:20:15
a really heartwarming joyful kind person who goes
from america to the uk to become a soccer coach
01:20:23
yeah it's really great it sounds boring that's
something he's really kind you would hate it david
01:20:32
should watch you should watch you should
watch gamora on hbo i started it yeah yeah
01:20:39
i watched the first episode i was like whoa here
we go it is so super and also you should watch
01:20:44
it in the original language because it's not
really italian it's like neapolitan and so like
01:20:49
you know i can catch and understand maybe
20 of the words and i said tonight i said
01:20:53
what language is she's like i had no
idea i watched it in italian subtitles
01:20:57
so it was it was beaut it's beautiful beautiful
it's so intense it's like the wire but like i mean
01:21:04
you know set in italy it's incredible uh
afterlife is also good ricky gervais if you
01:21:08
want something cynical and heartwarming that's
for you sex love you guys love you saks i'll see
01:21:13
you so what can you just come back to the bay
area so we can play poker baby yeah come back
01:21:18
why don't you just what are we doing
to um miami are we going to miami
01:21:22
i'm going to i'm going on a trip i'll just
leave it at that i'll talk to you guys
01:21:37
that term is more associated
with bail and in jail than it is
01:21:44
jason you are released on your own
recognizance that's what i'm talking about
01:21:48
you want to do reconnaissance
reconnaissance that's what i said
01:21:52
reconnaissance yeah i think you'll be wearing
an ankle bracelet on your recognizance
01:21:59
actually no they don't they
don't fit on his ankles
01:22:03
to make it a good episode for jason it'll be a
cankle bracelet what are you talking about my
01:22:12
god what do you is it called a bracelet if your
calf and your ankle are the same circumference
01:22:19
put this way if sax sacks is wearing
two of them right now you'd never know
01:22:33
love your besties bye-bye
we'll see you all next time
01:22:46
and they've just gone crazy with it
01:23:04
oh
01:23:18
your feet we need to get mercies
