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Should I Drain My 401k to Pay Off My Mortgage? | AMA #2 with Jesse - E86

July 31, 2024 / 48:23

This episode of the Best Interest Podcast features a second Ask Me Anything (AMA) session, where host Jesse Kramer answers listener questions on various personal finance topics. Key subjects include Social Security, annuities, compound growth, retirement planning, and mortgage strategies.

Listener Mindy shares her unique situation as a widow considering her survivor benefits and the implications of potentially remarrying. Jesse discusses the nuances of Social Security survivor benefits and the importance of understanding the long-term financial impact of such decisions.

Another listener, Bob, seeks advice on whether to use retirement savings to pay off a mortgage or maintain it while saving. Jesse emphasizes the importance of tax implications and suggests a careful approach to managing retirement assets in relation to mortgage payments.

Ted asks for clarification on compound interest versus compound growth, particularly in relation to stocks and bonds. Jesse explains the concept of compound growth using a lemonade stand analogy, highlighting the importance of reinvesting profits.

Finally, Amy inquires about the pros and cons of annuities as a retirement income source. Jesse expresses skepticism about annuities, discussing their potential downsides and comparing them to traditional investment portfolios.

TL;DR

Jesse answers listener questions on Social Security, annuities, compound growth, and mortgage strategies in this AMA episode.

Video

00:00:01
welcome to the best interest podcast
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where we believe Benjamin Franklin's
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advice that an investment in knowledge
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pays the best interest both in finances
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and in your life every episode teaches
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you personal finance and investing in
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simple terms now here's your host Jesse
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Kramer hello and welcome to episode 86
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of the best interest podcast my name is
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Jesse Kramer after much fanfare and lots
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of requests we're back with a second ask
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me anything episode or AMA episode here
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on the best interest podcast if you're
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interested episode 81 was our first AMA
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episode and it shot through the roof in
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terms of being the most listened to
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episode so far in podcast history and
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today we're back with some great
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questions from you listeners about
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social security about annuities uh a
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question about compound growth another
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one about using retirement assets to pay
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off a mortgage early that's an
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interesting planning question and
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another financial plan question about
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defining the risks or the lack of risks
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in someone's retirement plan but before
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we get to the first question let's do a
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customary review of the week this one
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comes from listener years y e iirs years
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who left a five-star rating and wrote in
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very helpful I came across the podcast
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about a week ago and have since listened
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to eight episodes in no particular order
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as a newbie I find it immensely helpful
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and easy to follow which is exactly what
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I needed the variety of guests on the
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show discussing different topics has
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also been very helpful I look forward to
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discovering more valuable content in the
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Content Library on the blogs and on
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future episodes to come Years thank you
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very much for those kind words shoot me
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an email uh to Jesse best bestin
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interest. blog and we'll get you hooked
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up with a super soft bestest t-shirt now
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on to the AMA questions the first
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question comes from Mindy who wrote in
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and said I'd love to be used as a
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non-traditional case study I'm 50 and
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was widowed last year at age 49 my
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daughter is currently receiving survivor
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benefits and I will be able to collect
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Widow benefits at age 60 unless I
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remarry I've thought about my potential
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benefit in a lump sum dollar amount that
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would produce 4% per year just like he
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stated in your article and unless some
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dude is willing to sign a prenup with a
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non-refundable deposit of $800,000 to $1
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million I'm not remarrying what are your
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thoughts Jesse so Mindy sorry for your
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loss that is far too young to lose a
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spouse and you present a very
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interesting question which listeners IND
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is alluding to an article I wrote which
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we will link in the show notes that
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talks about thinking of your Social
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Security or your pension or any other
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sort of fixed income stream as a lump
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sum right because you can use the 4%
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rule or potentially a different rule I
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actually recommend using more of a five
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or 6% rule you can use it forwards or
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backwards meaning you can take your
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lumpsum portfolio and think about it
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using the 4% rule as a a stream of
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income out into the future or you can
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take a stream of income come out into
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the future like Social Security or a
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pension and divide it by 4% or 5% or 6%
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to work your way into a lump sum amount
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let me start with a caveat to all your
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listeners when it comes to part of
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Mindy's question and the caveat is that
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the world of Social Security spousal
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benefits and Social Security survivor
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benefits it is a deep and nuanced and
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confusing world it is not a casual
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personal finance topic and so I highly
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recommend there are tools out there on
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the internet that you can use and
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calculators that you can use to do some
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math on your own to try to understand
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how it works the language if you spend
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enough time it's all English words right
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we should be able to understand it but
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even then rules have changed over time
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not every resource that you find on the
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internet will get those rules correct
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and this is the kind of thing that you
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want to make sure you get it right it
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might be worth sitting down with a
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certified financial planner even if only
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for an hour to make sure that your plan
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is working correctly and that your
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understanding of spousal benefits or
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survivor benefits is correct so in
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Mindy's case we would need to start by
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asking her questions like is Mindy
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caring for a child under the age of 16
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is Mindy caring for a child with a
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disability is Mindy herself disabled
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does Mindy or was her husband before her
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husband's death caring for her husband's
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elderly parents all of those kind of
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questions can qualify or potentially
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disqualify Mindy for various different
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types or levels of survivor benefits but
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as Mindy alluded to she's likely going
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to wait at least until age 60 to start
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collecting her survivor benefits and
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she's not planning on remarrying now why
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is that well for starters if Mindy's own
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future benefit you know the benefit that
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she's earned through her own work and
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through her own Social Security taxes
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and through her own earnings if Mindy's
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own future benefit is lower than what
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her husband's benefit would have been
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then Mindy will be best served in the
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long run by collecting a Survivor
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benefit which will take the place and
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Will supersede her own benefit so to be
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clear she doesn't get to collect both
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benefits she doesn't get to collect her
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own earned benefit and her husband's
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Survivor benefit she only gets to
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collect the higher of the two but if her
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husband's benefit is higher then that's
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going to be the one she's going to want
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to collect now if Mindy remarries and
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depending on the age at which Mindy
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remarries she could disqualify herself
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from collecting that Survivor benefit
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from her husband's passing if she
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remarries before the age of 50 then
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Mindy is not going to be eligible for
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any survivor benefits unless and this is
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where it gets nuanced and and it you
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really have to be careful here unless
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Mindy later divorces the remarried
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husband then potentially Mindy can
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become eligible again for survivor
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benefits via the death of her first
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husband nuanced nuanced nuanced now if
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Mindy remarries between ages 50 and 5 9
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then no survivor benefits are available
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for Mindy at all and then if Mindy does
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get remarried after age 60 then survivor
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benefits may be available for her it it
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depends again there there are more
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Corner cases and if then scenarios
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divorce throws another monkey wrench
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into this conversation so just a quick
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example now let's say Bob and Sharon are
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our favorite couple let's say they're
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they're married couple and they've been
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married from ages 25 to 45 after which
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they divorce and for the sake of example
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we're going to say Bob was the main
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bread winner in the family while Sharon
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stayed at home with the kids mostly so
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Bob's Social Security earnings history
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is great while Sharon's is not now in
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that scenario even after their divorce
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at the age of 45 Sharon will eventually
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be able to collect a spousal Social
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Security benefit based on Bob's earning
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record and that fact that Sharon is
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collecting based on Bob's record it
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doesn't negatively affect Bob's own
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benefit at all now some of the
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qualifications and the reasons why this
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is possible for Sharon is that their
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marriage lasted at least 10 years it's
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based on the fact of Sharon not
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remarrying in the future it's also based
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on the fact that Sharon's ex Bob would
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be eligible on his own to collect Social
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Security or disability benefits meaning
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Sharon can start collecting a spousal
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benefit once Bob is old enough to start
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collecting his own social security
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benefit right Bob has to have reached
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age 62 again we have to do a comparison
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in almost every case that I'm aware of a
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person can can only collect one type of
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social security benefit at a time so
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Sharon would have to compare her own
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earned benefits to the spousal benefit
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from Bob and Sharon's going to collect
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whichever one is greater it's also
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dependent on Sharon being a full
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retirement age of 67 years or older and
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the divorce has to have occurred at
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least two years ago okay lots of little
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nuances and lots of rules around this
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but back to Mindy who asked us this
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question in the first place Mindy said
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I've thought of my potential benefit in
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a lumpsum dollar amount which would
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produce 4% per year as you stated in
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your article on the best interest and
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unless some dude is willing to sign a
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prenup with a non-refundable deposit of
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a million dollar I'm not remarrying so
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again Mindy's referring to an article I
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wrote which we will throw in the show
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notes that encourages all of you
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listening to consider your Social
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Security your pension or any stream of
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income benefit as if it were a lump sum
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of fixed income in your portfolio now is
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Mindy's Survivor benefit actually worth
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a million dollars I'm not sure of the
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details but I will say that the average
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person's Social Security is about $1,800
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per month for about 20 years of their
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life which if we use what I think we
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should use which is about a 6% rule not
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the 4% rule that Mindy recommended but
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either way it equates that social
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security benefit equates to a fixed
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income lump sum of about
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$350,000 if Mindy's husband was a high
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earner if Mindy's going to be collecting
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that benefit for a long period of time
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maybe she's very healthy it could be
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realistic to think of her Survivor
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benefit as more than twice of what the
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average person's benefit is it might be
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3/4 of a million dollars or more and
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depending on the rest of Mindy's
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financial situation that kind of benefit
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3/4 of a million dollars more than that
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that benefit could be a keystone that
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remarrying might remove from her plan
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and potentially damage her retirement so
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I don't want to encourage Mindy or any
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of you to put money above love but I do
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think it's simply Smart Financial
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Planning to consider how your
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relationship can and will affect your
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finances Mindy is right to think this
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through these are the kinds of questions
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and scenarios and if then logic that a
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team of professionals whether it's a
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family attorney or a cfp financial
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planner can help you work through so
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Mindy best of luck and thank you for the
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great question okay next question Bob
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wrote in and this is different by the
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way than Bob and Sharon completely
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different Bob sorry for the the double
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use of the name here Bob wrote in and
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asked Jesse I'm a new listener to your
00:09:57
podcast I love the content I'm going
00:09:59
through the many episodes that interest
00:10:00
me and I've been enjoying all of them
00:10:02
well thank you very much Bob I recently
00:10:04
started working with a Vanguard cfp and
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I'd like to get your opinion on our
00:10:07
future plans from a financial
00:10:09
perspective before I float this question
00:10:11
to our adviser my wife and I are in our
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late 50s and we have $1.2 million in our
00:10:15
retirement savings we're planning to
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retire in 5 to 10 years we also want to
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sell our home and move to a newer home
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we owe about $150,000 on our existing
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mortgage at about a 4% rate and we have
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estimated on a 600,00 ,000 sale price
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the new homes we're looking at would
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cost about
00:10:33
$700,000 so if you do the math it means
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that we would need a $200 to $300,000
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mortgage on our new home my question is
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do we use some of our retirement savings
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to lower the cost of our monthly
00:10:46
mortgage payment or should we
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potentially use our retirement savings
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to have no mortgage altogether in other
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words to to make up that $200 to
00:10:54
$300,000 gap or should we just take the
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mortgage leave our retirements savings
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as is and simply make the monthly
00:11:01
payments until the mortgage runs out
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okay great question Bob a perfect
00:11:06
perfect financial planning question
00:11:08
because you have lots of options various
00:11:09
knobs to turn and most likely there is
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an optimal decision out there that does
00:11:14
exist if we can find it so for starters
00:11:17
you listeners I did ask Bob for a bit
00:11:19
more information about the various
00:11:20
puzzle pieces in his life I wanted to
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know more about his family's total
00:11:23
assets any debts their current income
00:11:26
their projected social security income
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and a few more it
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the reason is it's hard to give advice
00:11:31
without knowing all of the potential
00:11:33
consequences and it's hard to know all
00:11:35
of those consequences unless you really
00:11:37
have all the chips on the table as far
00:11:39
as I'm aware the cfps the certified
00:11:42
financial planners who I know who are
00:11:43
worth their salt they insist upon
00:11:45
collecting as much information as
00:11:47
possible before ever giving advice and
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this is why a good financial planner
00:11:51
will often give the frustrating answer
00:11:54
of it depends if you ask them a question
00:11:56
about your life but they don't know all
00:11:58
the details about your life the only
00:12:00
responsible answer they can give is well
00:12:02
it depends so Bob gave me a lot more
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information most of which falls into the
00:12:07
camp of reasonable typical pre- retiree
00:12:10
info there's nothing too crazy in Bob's
00:12:12
situation that I'm aware of and that
00:12:14
allowed me to make the following
00:12:15
recommendations for Bob so what Bob
00:12:18
doesn't want to do in my opinion is use
00:12:21
$300,000 of his retirement accounts all
00:12:24
at once to pay off or eliminate the
00:12:26
mortgage now why the main reason why is
00:12:29
because that would realize
00:12:31
$300,000 of extra income into one tax
00:12:35
year it would push Bob's marginal
00:12:38
federal tax rate into the 32% tax
00:12:40
bracket maybe even into the 35% tax
00:12:43
bracket and depending on what state Bob
00:12:45
lives in it would also Spike his State
00:12:48
marginal tax bracket a cfp Worth or salt
00:12:52
will analyze this kind of question will
00:12:54
give a very confident answer to Bob I
00:12:56
have a safer path that I've laid out for
00:12:58
him but these are the kind of analyses
00:13:00
that I think doing a home ownership
00:13:02
analysis typically for a younger family
00:13:04
who might be buying their first home
00:13:06
it's something I've done a number of
00:13:07
times at work very very fun to do in
00:13:10
part because it's such a local problem
00:13:12
right it can depend on the specific
00:13:14
metro area where someone's looking to
00:13:16
buy a home and what the home prices are
00:13:18
there it can depend on certain County
00:13:20
taxes a really fun one we did was for a
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couple who lives in Washington DC and
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depending on if they lived in Washington
00:13:27
DC itself or in Maryland or in Virginia
00:13:31
their state income tax would change so
00:13:33
not only is it a housing question itself
00:13:35
of the cost of the house and and the
00:13:37
mortgage rate and all those kind of
00:13:38
things and what their income is but
00:13:40
there's also this part of the question
00:13:41
which is to say well depending on which
00:13:43
state or DC in which they live their
00:13:46
income for quite a long period of time
00:13:49
will get taxed at a different rate so
00:13:51
anyway very fun questions that a cfp can
00:13:54
help provide answers to but here are
00:13:55
some of my thoughts for Bob a safer path
00:13:58
I think would be to get the mortgage as
00:14:00
soon as you're ready as soon as you
00:14:01
found the house that you want go ahead
00:14:03
get that $300,000 mortgage but do not
00:14:05
pay it down early at least not yet the
00:14:08
next step is at the end of the the
00:14:10
current tax year whatever year this ends
00:14:12
up being at the end of the current tax
00:14:14
year you need to ask yourself a do you
00:14:16
have extra room in your current tax
00:14:18
bracket that you haven't realized the
00:14:20
income to fill up that particular tax
00:14:23
bracket and then B is that current tax
00:14:25
bracket relatively even to your future
00:14:28
expected tax bracket in other words are
00:14:30
you paying a 22% marginal tax today and
00:14:35
also expecting to pay a 22% tax
00:14:37
throughout retirement you might not know
00:14:39
the answer to that your financial
00:14:40
planner should be able to help you with
00:14:42
that question now if you answered those
00:14:44
questions yes and yes if you have extra
00:14:47
room in your tax bracket and your
00:14:49
current tax bracket is relatively even
00:14:51
or favorable compared to your future tax
00:14:54
bracket then you can and should fill up
00:14:57
your current tax bracket with extra r
00:14:59
drawals to pay down your mortgage and
00:15:01
then you can rinse and repeat for future
00:15:02
years so again to break that down
00:15:05
potentially in an even more simple way
00:15:07
is to say if Bob is in a favorable tax
00:15:10
situation as compared to the future if
00:15:12
he's paying less taxes now then he'll
00:15:15
pay in the future then he should go
00:15:17
ahead take some retirement assets out of
00:15:20
his retirement accounts pay those taxes
00:15:22
because we've just established they're
00:15:23
relatively low right now and then he can
00:15:26
use the the proceeds to pay down his
00:15:28
mortgage but if Bob's in a situation
00:15:30
where right now he's in a pretty high
00:15:32
tax bracket and in the future he'll be
00:15:34
in a much lower tax bracket it does not
00:15:37
make sense to pay high taxes right now
00:15:40
simply to pay off a a 7% mortgage or
00:15:43
something like this now most likely this
00:15:46
will result in Bob paying off his
00:15:47
mortgage considerably early but over the
00:15:50
course of multiple years the rate at
00:15:52
which he's paying off the mortgage will
00:15:54
increase dramatically once both Bob and
00:15:56
his wife are fully retired right they'll
00:15:59
have no more W2 income they'll be in
00:16:01
very low tax brackets with lots of extra
00:16:04
room for those mortgage payments so in
00:16:06
other words Bob your best bet might be
00:16:09
that you have the mortgage in full while
00:16:10
you're still working and then you pay it
00:16:12
off rapidly once you fully retire now
00:16:15
this also means that Bob should likely
00:16:17
delay taking social security until after
00:16:19
the mortgage is paid off because there's
00:16:21
no sense in taking social security in
00:16:24
years when you are intentionally and
00:16:26
knowingly increasing your taxable income
00:16:29
right Social Security can be partially
00:16:31
taxable and the rate at which it's
00:16:33
taxable increases the more money you
00:16:35
earn so what's the point in taking
00:16:37
social security and paying extra taxes
00:16:39
on it in years when you know that you're
00:16:42
going to be increasing your taxable
00:16:43
income to pay off your mortgage so pay
00:16:46
off the mortgage first with those years
00:16:48
of higher taxable income and then once
00:16:50
you're done paying off the mortgage then
00:16:51
you can turn on Social Security all of
00:16:53
this too we should say is based on the
00:16:56
assumption that Bob's mortgage rate will
00:16:58
be in the roughly 7% or so range because
00:17:02
as I'm talking to you right now in in
00:17:03
June of 2024 7% is about the prevailing
00:17:06
mortgage rate so with a 7% guaranteed
00:17:10
return from paying down the mortgage
00:17:12
that's worth pursuing that's worth
00:17:14
potentially you know realizing some
00:17:16
taxes to to pay off that mortgage early
00:17:18
but if you were to ask me this question
00:17:20
again next year and mortgage rates were
00:17:22
back in say the 4% range my answer would
00:17:25
absolutely change there's no need to pay
00:17:27
down that 4% mortgage early you'd much
00:17:30
rather keep the tax deferred money where
00:17:32
it is in the ira in the retirement
00:17:34
account growing at what's likely a much
00:17:36
greater than 4% per year Bob then asked
00:17:39
a quick follow-up question which is how
00:17:41
to balance Roth conversions with this
00:17:43
idea so again we're throwing a little
00:17:45
bit more complexity into the situation
00:17:47
not only is Bob looking to pay down his
00:17:48
mortgage early he's also hoping to
00:17:51
potentially do Roth conversions so again
00:17:53
Bob this comes down to a mortgage rate
00:17:56
and a tax rate question depending on the
00:17:58
mortgage the mortgage rate you might be
00:18:00
best served by drawing on your IRA
00:18:03
paying income taxes to pay down your
00:18:05
mortgage early in that case your best
00:18:07
bet is likely to pay down the mortgage
00:18:09
completely before changing your
00:18:10
attention over to Ral conversions but
00:18:13
with a low enough mortgage rate I
00:18:15
wouldn't worry about the Mortgage Debt
00:18:16
at all and then assuming you in your
00:18:18
lower earning years potentially your
00:18:20
earliest retirement years with no W2
00:18:23
income but before you've turned on
00:18:24
Social Security well those are the
00:18:26
perfect years to use your low marginal
00:18:29
tax rate to conduct Roth conversions so
00:18:32
Bob best of luck with these choices feel
00:18:34
free to let me know let us know what
00:18:36
your Vanguard cfp says and if you're
00:18:38
interested in a second opinion from my
00:18:39
colleagues we can certainly talk here's
00:18:42
a quick ad and then we'll get back to
00:18:44
the show serious question why do
00:18:47
podcasters constantly ask for ratings
00:18:49
and reviews yes they do help highlight
00:18:51
our shows to new listeners they help
00:18:53
strangers find us on Apple podcast and
00:18:55
Spotify it's totally true and a good
00:18:57
reason to ask for reads and reviews but
00:19:00
I have something more important at least
00:19:02
more important to me I want to know if
00:19:04
you like this stuff I want to know if
00:19:06
you like my podcast episodes my
00:19:08
monologues my guests the information I
00:19:10
share with you and the stories I tell I
00:19:12
want to improve and make your listening
00:19:14
more enjoyable in the process so yeah I
00:19:16
would love to read your reviews and sure
00:19:18
if you throw a rating in there too
00:19:20
that's great if you like what I'm doing
00:19:22
please share it with me it's such a
00:19:24
great feeling to read your feedback I'd
00:19:27
love to read your review or see a rating
00:19:29
on Apple podcast or Spotify thank you
00:19:33
next question Ted wrote in and said hey
00:19:35
Jesse we all know leaving one's money
00:19:37
alone in an investment account is
00:19:39
advantageous over many years due to the
00:19:41
magic of compound interest I've heard
00:19:44
this hundreds of times from many
00:19:45
personal finance bloggers however when
00:19:47
explaining this to a novice investor I
00:19:49
stumbled on how exactly this works for
00:19:52
stocks for stock mutual funds and stock
00:19:54
index funds it's easy to explain for a
00:19:57
savings account at a bank but there's no
00:19:59
interest earned from stocks so would you
00:20:01
please explain the math taking into
00:20:03
account that some stocks pay little or
00:20:05
no dividends at all and would you reach
00:20:07
out to other bloggers and podcasters to
00:20:09
stop using the phrase compound interest
00:20:11
when explaining this phenomenon and as
00:20:14
long as we're down this Rabbit Hole
00:20:15
please confirm that this does not apply
00:20:18
at all to bonds or bond funds I love
00:20:20
your show thanks well Ted very very
00:20:23
interesting question you're right
00:20:25
compound interest is quite often a nomer
00:20:29
I think the more appropriate verbiage
00:20:31
and perhaps the more all-encompassing
00:20:33
verbiage is compound growth all right so
00:20:36
forgive me if I ever use the word
00:20:38
compound interest here you get the
00:20:40
principle but I think compound growth
00:20:42
captures the principle more widely for
00:20:45
all different investment products
00:20:46
because as Ted pointed out some types of
00:20:48
Investments do Shed off interest other
00:20:51
types of Investments simply grow and
00:20:53
there is a a Nuance different there
00:20:55
which we will get to in this answer so
00:20:58
the question then from Tad is how does
00:21:00
compound Growth work for a stock first
00:21:03
we need to remember that owning a stock
00:21:05
is simply a different way of saying
00:21:07
owning a company right stocks are
00:21:10
businesses stocks are companies how does
00:21:12
compound Growth work for a business or
00:21:14
for a company let's go simple let's
00:21:16
think of a lemonade stand okay so the
00:21:18
first summer you are the one and only
00:21:20
employee of the lemonade stand Tad then
00:21:22
there's one stand at the end of your one
00:21:25
driveway and you sell 100 cups of
00:21:27
lemonade per day and over the course of
00:21:29
the summer you earn $1,000 in profit
00:21:32
good for you fast forward to the second
00:21:33
summer you have your $1,000 in profit
00:21:36
and you decide to use that to hire a
00:21:38
second employee and to build a second
00:21:40
lemonade stand on some other Corner in
00:21:42
another part of town you essentially
00:21:44
double your efforts and sure enough at
00:21:46
the end of the summer you now have
00:21:48
$2,000 in profit enter the third summer
00:21:51
you use your $2,000 in profit to rinse
00:21:54
and repeat the same thing you now have
00:21:56
employees three and four and lemonade
00:21:58
stands three and four and you earn
00:22:00
$4,000 in profit now oversimplified yes
00:22:04
but if I keep going in this business
00:22:06
you'll see that my profits are doubling
00:22:08
every year that is compound growth and
00:22:11
as my profits grow I'm able to reinvest
00:22:13
those profits and increase the amount of
00:22:15
growth the following year my business is
00:22:19
not only is my Revenue growing but the
00:22:20
overall value of my business is growing
00:22:23
too and not only is the business growing
00:22:26
but the rate of growth as measured in of
00:22:29
profit is actually accelerating it went
00:22:31
from a new business to $1,000 in profit
00:22:34
to 2,000 in profit to $4,000 in profit
00:22:37
ostensibly next summer it would be 8,000
00:22:39
in profit then 16,000 in profit right
00:22:42
the Delta between each summer is
00:22:44
accelerating and that's the goal for
00:22:46
most businesses if you own a portion of
00:22:48
the lemonade stand with me then the
00:22:50
value of your ownership would be growing
00:22:53
and the rate of the value growth is
00:22:55
accelerating your investment is
00:22:57
experiencing compound grow now let's
00:22:59
bundle M lemonade stand with your
00:23:01
bicycle shop with the local ice cream
00:23:03
shop with a local accountant etc etc etc
00:23:06
we now have a fund of many different
00:23:08
businesses all of which are trying to
00:23:10
grow now some succeed and some fail uh
00:23:12
some grow quickly some grow slowly but
00:23:15
on average growth is achieved and on net
00:23:17
that growth is accelerating over time
00:23:20
this fund which we could call in the
00:23:22
stock World a mutual fund is also
00:23:24
experiencing compound growth so Tad that
00:23:28
is how compound growth works for stocks
00:23:30
you have businesses that are growing and
00:23:33
that are trying to accelerate their
00:23:34
growth over time and that leads to a a
00:23:37
net compound growth for anyone who owns
00:23:39
those businesses and we as stockholders
00:23:42
are owners of those businesses but then
00:23:44
Tad also asked please confirm that this
00:23:46
does not apply to bonds or bond funds
00:23:49
Tad let's start with the basics what's a
00:23:51
bond a bond is when you own someone
00:23:53
else's debt for example a US treasury
00:23:55
bond is literally the fact that you are
00:23:58
Lending ending the US government your
00:23:59
money and the US government is promising
00:24:02
to repay you over a certain period of
00:24:03
time with interest payments along the
00:24:06
way you own the US's debt and the us is
00:24:09
going to repay you in time with interest
00:24:11
so if you're collecting 5% interest
00:24:13
payments from the US government you have
00:24:15
a couple options of what to do with that
00:24:17
so the first option is you could take
00:24:18
the interest payment and you could just
00:24:20
stick it under your mattress where it
00:24:21
will sit there and it will not grow at
00:24:23
all but the second option and the better
00:24:26
option is that you take your interest
00:24:27
payment and you reinvest it you can
00:24:30
reinvest that interest payment into more
00:24:31
bonds or into stocks or to something
00:24:34
else that's growing some other type of
00:24:35
investment and in this case I hope you
00:24:37
can see that we are taking the profits
00:24:40
from the investment just like we took
00:24:42
the profits from our lemonade stand and
00:24:44
we are putting those profits to use to
00:24:46
create even more profits so by
00:24:48
reinvesting our bond income we will
00:24:51
achieve compound growth anything that's
00:24:53
growing as long as the profits are used
00:24:55
to generate more profits you will
00:24:57
achieve compound growth in the case of
00:24:59
companies it might look like the company
00:25:01
itself reinvesting in their own business
00:25:04
if the company does provide you
00:25:05
dividends which was part of your
00:25:07
question Tad well now you have that cash
00:25:09
on hand you can stick it under your bed
00:25:10
if you want or you can choose to
00:25:12
reinvest it in the case of a savings
00:25:14
account or bonds or real estate rent
00:25:17
which is another example they all
00:25:19
require you as the investor to take your
00:25:22
proceeds to take the cash that you have
00:25:24
earned from the investment and to
00:25:26
reinvest it yourself so either way
00:25:28
reinvested Capital that is the
00:25:30
underpinning of all compound growth
00:25:33
whether it's compound interest or
00:25:35
whether it's occurring inside of a
00:25:36
company inside of a stock as long as
00:25:38
capital is being reinvested in the
00:25:40
pursuit of more Revenue more profits
00:25:42
that is the underpinning of compound
00:25:44
growth so Tad I hope that answers your
00:25:47
terrific question thank you for writing
00:25:49
in the next question comes from Dan Dan
00:25:51
wrote in and said Jesse I'm in
00:25:53
retirement to me bonds are useful to
00:25:55
help stabilize my investments by
00:25:57
operating opposite of stocks however I
00:26:00
have four pensions of which three are
00:26:02
indexed to inflation the pensions cover
00:26:05
about 80% of my household budget and
00:26:08
cover all of my must pay bills I've set
00:26:11
aside some money in CDs or certificates
00:26:13
of deposit to cover several years of a
00:26:16
potential down Market I also have term
00:26:18
life insurance which I do plan to end in
00:26:20
a few years so I've treated the pensions
00:26:23
as the stabilizing bucket the CDs as a a
00:26:26
risk management against down markets and
00:26:28
I've ignored bonds altogether putting
00:26:30
all of my remaining investment dollars
00:26:32
into stocks to be clear my wife and I
00:26:35
have
00:26:36
$137,000 in annual pensions while I am
00:26:38
living and my wife will have $442,000 in
00:26:42
pensions if I were to die so I'm trying
00:26:45
to live as long as possible to leave
00:26:47
more investment money to her in the
00:26:48
future financial planner looked at my
00:26:51
plan and said that my Approach was high
00:26:53
risk because I had no bonds what are
00:26:55
your thoughts Jesse so Dan very
00:26:58
interesting question and and listeners
00:27:00
first off you should know that Dan did
00:27:02
share a few more specific details with
00:27:03
me which I've left out for the sake of
00:27:05
brevity the main details are that Dan
00:27:07
and his wife will also be eligible for
00:27:09
Social Security and once you account for
00:27:11
the fact that 80% of their spending is
00:27:13
covered by pensions and Social Security
00:27:15
Dan needs to cover the remaining 20% of
00:27:18
his annual spending somehow and if you
00:27:20
actually run the math and you look at
00:27:22
Dan's CD safety net plus his stock
00:27:25
portfolio Dan has about 50 years worth
00:27:28
of money Dan only needs to cover 20% of
00:27:31
his annual spending the rest is covered
00:27:33
by his pensions so to cover that small
00:27:35
20% slice Dan's got about 50 years of
00:27:38
that sitting in stocks so between cash
00:27:41
and CDs Dan has about 10 years worth of
00:27:44
coverage sitting there to help cover for
00:27:46
that 20% slice that isn't covered by his
00:27:49
pensions and then if you look at stocks
00:27:51
Dan has about 40 years worth of spending
00:27:53
in stocks again 40 years worth of those
00:27:56
20% slices in stock index funds so is
00:28:00
Dan at high risk now it's hard for me to
00:28:03
say yes I certainly wouldn't use the
00:28:05
term high risk but if there is a risk in
00:28:07
Dan's retirement plan we should ask at
00:28:10
risk of what there are different types
00:28:12
of risk we'll get into this in the next
00:28:13
question there's the risk that someone
00:28:15
dies early there's also a risk that
00:28:17
someone lives a really long time there's
00:28:19
the risk that markets tank there's a
00:28:21
risk of high inflation there are all
00:28:23
these different types of risk in
00:28:24
retirement and some assets are really
00:28:26
good at addressing some types of of risk
00:28:28
while bad at addressing other types of
00:28:30
risk and to me I do see one risk in the
00:28:33
details that Dan has shared with us that
00:28:36
risk in my opinion is the risk of Dan's
00:28:39
death you know as Dan pointed out the
00:28:41
family's pension income would drop from
00:28:43
$137,000 a year to $42,000 a year if Dan
00:28:47
died that's a 70% decrease when a spouse
00:28:51
passes away the household spending does
00:28:53
typically decrease but it doesn't get
00:28:55
cut in half only certain expenses get
00:28:57
cut and half many expenses some expenses
00:29:00
they stay exactly the same so the total
00:29:02
household spending might only drop by
00:29:04
30% or 40% so we have a a 30% drop in
00:29:08
spending upon Dan's death but a 70%
00:29:11
decrease in the pension income that
00:29:13
presents a potential risk and it's worth
00:29:16
Dan going through that math to first off
00:29:19
to verify whether the numbers actually
00:29:21
bear that risk out is it real if that
00:29:23
were to happen does Dan have enough cash
00:29:26
and stocks to kind of mitigate that risk
00:29:29
but if it is still there then Dan might
00:29:31
have to find a way to mitigate that risk
00:29:32
in some other way or at least to talk
00:29:34
through what kind of knobs are left to
00:29:36
turn in the event of Dan's death he
00:29:38
should talk about that risk now and and
00:29:40
put together a plan now while Dan is
00:29:42
still alive and sure while listening to
00:29:44
the best interest podcast so in my
00:29:46
opinion the most objective investment
00:29:48
approach is for Dan and his spouse to
00:29:50
look at their assets to assign those
00:29:52
dollars to specific goals in their life
00:29:54
because they have so much pension income
00:29:56
those goals might not be day-to-day
00:29:59
Lifestyle the goals might be something
00:30:01
else it might be something extravagant
00:30:03
it might be something soon it might be
00:30:04
something in the next decade some of
00:30:06
those goals might be at death you know
00:30:08
they might have a goal to say whenever
00:30:09
we die who knows when it'll be we're
00:30:11
going to leave some of our money to the
00:30:12
kids we're going to leave some of our
00:30:14
money to charity that kind of thing and
00:30:16
then Dan should find appropriate
00:30:18
Investments based on those timelines it
00:30:21
might lead and it probably will lead to
00:30:23
a very small Bond allocation to ensure
00:30:26
that Dan's nearest term go goals are
00:30:28
sufficiently met but with the amount of
00:30:30
pension income that Dan is receiving to
00:30:32
cover day-to-day life there is a high
00:30:34
likelihood that a vast majority stock
00:30:36
portfolio is totally appropriate for Dan
00:30:39
now I haven't written this article yet
00:30:41
but by the time this podcast airs I hope
00:30:43
to have written a blog post about need
00:30:46
ability and willingness those are the
00:30:48
three words to consider when an investor
00:30:50
thinks about risk in their portfolio
00:30:53
does Dan have the need to take on risk
00:30:56
does Dan have the ability to take on
00:30:58
risk and does Dan have the willingness
00:31:00
to suffer the downsides of risk in order
00:31:03
to achieve the upsides need ability and
00:31:06
willingness now need and ability are
00:31:08
objective right those are numbers based
00:31:10
so Dan has so much pension income he
00:31:13
likely doesn't mathematically need to
00:31:16
take on risk or to seek large investment
00:31:18
returns in order to live his preferred
00:31:20
lifestyle right he could probably take
00:31:22
his stock Investments put them all into
00:31:24
a high interest savings account and he
00:31:27
could Cruise for the rest of his life
00:31:28
now I might be wrong there but it's
00:31:30
certainly the impression I get he
00:31:31
doesn't need to take on risk however Dan
00:31:33
does have the ability to take on lots of
00:31:35
risk because his short-term cash flow
00:31:37
needs are so well covered Dan can
00:31:40
earmark a lot of his dollars for long
00:31:42
long periods of time in the future and
00:31:44
take on investment risk because of that
00:31:46
and then as far as willingness goes
00:31:48
willingness is more subjective he he
00:31:50
sounds like he's willing to take on risk
00:31:52
so because Dan has the ability and the
00:31:54
willingness to take on risk even though
00:31:56
he doesn't have much need it's probably
00:31:58
okay for him to take on risk so that's
00:32:00
another way I would approach the problem
00:32:01
Dan I think about your need and ability
00:32:04
and willingness to take on risk and find
00:32:07
a balance between those three words it's
00:32:09
mostly objective but with a pretty solid
00:32:11
sprinkling of personal subjectivity
00:32:14
based on your personality Dan and then
00:32:16
once you find a balance between those
00:32:17
three words you invest accordingly so
00:32:20
thank you Dan for the great question
00:32:22
here's a quick ad and then we'll get
00:32:24
back to the show one of the more common
00:32:26
questions I hear is Jesse what do you
00:32:29
like in use books blogs podcasts even
00:32:32
Banks and brokerage firms what are your
00:32:34
recommendations so to answer that
00:32:36
question I put together a web page you
00:32:39
can check it out at bestin interest.
00:32:41
blog reccommendations again that's
00:32:44
bestin interest. blog reccommendations
00:32:47
to check out how I'm improving my
00:32:50
financial life and now we have our last
00:32:53
question from Amy it's a short question
00:32:55
but it's a doozy Amy wrote in and said
00:32:57
said hey Jesse I've heard a segment on
00:33:00
another show about having an annuity set
00:33:03
up from your 401k to create a quote
00:33:05
unquote paycheck in retirement it sounds
00:33:08
convenient but there were downsides of
00:33:10
course it seemed like a topic that might
00:33:12
be fun for you to unpack thanks for the
00:33:14
question Amy and yes when I hear
00:33:16
annuities are paychecks I do get a
00:33:18
little nervous a little concerned it's
00:33:21
not because of a factual error but
00:33:23
instead it's because it sounds a little
00:33:25
bit like a sales pitch to me and while
00:33:27
certainly not all sales pitches are
00:33:29
inherently bad there's nothing wrong
00:33:31
with a sales pitch per se but with
00:33:34
annuities the problem is that probably
00:33:36
about 99% of annuities are raw deals for
00:33:40
the investors in them and also about 99%
00:33:43
of annuities are are sold in other words
00:33:45
they're pushed instead of being bought
00:33:47
or sought after by the investor by the
00:33:49
consumer so when we have mostly bad
00:33:52
products which are mostly being pushed
00:33:55
or sold via Shady or airor ridden sales
00:33:58
tactics when I hear a sales tactic like
00:34:00
ooh an annuity is like a paycheck in
00:34:02
your retirement my my alarm Bells go up
00:34:04
a little bit so that all being said I've
00:34:07
kind of painted a bad picture of annuity
00:34:09
so far and I think they deserve to have
00:34:10
a bad picture painted of them but I also
00:34:13
think it's interesting to approach the
00:34:14
problem from the Steelman point of view
00:34:17
so to speak right you've heard of straw
00:34:19
Manning straw Manning is where you build
00:34:21
up an argument in a kind of a less than
00:34:23
ideal way and then you tear that
00:34:25
argument down steel Manning is the
00:34:27
opposite where where you intentionally
00:34:29
force yourself to make good Arguments
00:34:31
for something even if it's something
00:34:32
that you disagree with so even though I
00:34:34
disagree with annuities for the most
00:34:36
part and and what they represent I'm
00:34:38
going to paint you an ideal picture
00:34:40
right now of annuities and so let's
00:34:42
assume that all annuities out there have
00:34:45
absolutely zero fees associated with
00:34:46
them great they're completely free
00:34:48
products maybe they're sponsored by the
00:34:50
government or something like that how
00:34:52
exactly would that work imagine we have
00:34:54
100 people who buy my free annuities
00:34:57
each person uses a million dollarss to
00:34:59
buy their annuity and then they
00:35:01
immediately start to receive a monthly
00:35:02
payout from the annuity just like the
00:35:04
paycheck that Amy referred to in our
00:35:06
question so now we have this pot 100
00:35:08
people put a million dollars each we
00:35:10
have a pot of $100 million which is
00:35:12
sending out 100 paychecks every single
00:35:14
month now this is my hypothetical so
00:35:16
we're going to continue down this path
00:35:18
of it being a perfect Ideal World and
00:35:20
the question is does this pot of money
00:35:22
have any risks associated with it and it
00:35:25
does the main risk for the pot of money
00:35:28
essentially for the annuity company
00:35:30
itself is that too many of the 100
00:35:32
people live too long and thus I'm
00:35:35
sending out too many paychecks over
00:35:37
their lives and the hundred million pot
00:35:39
essentially runs out and that problem is
00:35:42
why annuities are run by insurance
00:35:44
companies the the the problem is well
00:35:47
when are these people going to die it's
00:35:48
hard to know when a single person is
00:35:50
going to die but when you group many
00:35:52
many people together hundreds thousands
00:35:54
tens of thousands even more and you get
00:35:56
a large data set a large population well
00:35:59
you can use Actuarial math to find the
00:36:02
probabilities and the averages of how
00:36:04
many people are going to live a certain
00:36:06
amount of time that is the fundamental
00:36:08
mathematical problem that all life
00:36:10
insurance companies need to answer the
00:36:12
cost of say a life insurance policy it
00:36:15
has to be based on the probability of a
00:36:17
person dying based on their age their
00:36:19
gender their health their habits all
00:36:21
that kind of stuff and similarly the
00:36:23
promised monthly payout of an annuity
00:36:26
also has to be based on the probability
00:36:28
of a person dying now with term life
00:36:31
insurance let's compare life insurance
00:36:33
to an annuity because they're very
00:36:34
similar in some ways but they're kind of
00:36:36
the opposite side of the coin in other
00:36:38
ways we'll start with life insurance
00:36:40
with term life insurance if you die
00:36:41
early your beneficiary will receive much
00:36:44
more in a lump sum than you ever paid in
00:36:47
in premiums but if you don't die early
00:36:50
and the policy lapses you and your
00:36:52
beneficiary will receive zero payout
00:36:54
despite all the premiums you paid that
00:36:57
is the probabilistic wager when buying
00:36:59
term life insurance all the people who
00:37:01
survive they pay all these premiums in
00:37:04
and the people who die they get the lump
00:37:06
sums or their beneficiaries get the lump
00:37:08
sums going out now the benefit of the
00:37:11
security both Financial Security and
00:37:13
emotional security of having term life
00:37:16
insurance that benefit comes with a
00:37:17
price and with term life insurance that
00:37:20
price is usually appropriate and well
00:37:22
worth paying right most of us most of
00:37:24
the time are saying yeah I'm going to
00:37:26
buy term life insurance for the the next
00:37:27
30 Years I understand I'm going to be
00:37:29
paying a a monthly premium and I kind of
00:37:32
want to survive so I'm actually hoping
00:37:35
that I put all this money into the term
00:37:36
life insurance policy and I'm hoping I
00:37:39
never pull anything back out I hope that
00:37:41
it's a quote unquote waste of money
00:37:43
because on the off chance that I get hit
00:37:45
by a bus I want to have that security
00:37:48
for my family I want the financial
00:37:50
security and I want to have the
00:37:51
emotional security that allows me to
00:37:53
sleep at night while I am living because
00:37:55
I know they'll be taken care of so
00:37:57
that's ter life insurance now with an
00:37:58
annuity if you die late then you will
00:38:02
have received much more in monthly
00:38:04
payouts than you paid up front it's the
00:38:06
opposite of the term policy term life
00:38:08
insurance if you die early you get more
00:38:10
than your fair share well with an
00:38:12
annuity if you die late you get more
00:38:15
than your fair share but if with an
00:38:17
annuity if you die early then you'll
00:38:19
likely receive much less in payouts than
00:38:21
you paid upfront so while term life
00:38:24
insurance protects against an early
00:38:26
death annuities protect against a late
00:38:28
death that's why they're sometimes
00:38:30
called Longevity insurance it's an
00:38:32
insurance against the fact that you
00:38:34
might live until you're 95 or 100 and if
00:38:37
annuities were free or low cost like in
00:38:39
my ideal world then the benefit of
00:38:41
having that longevity insurance would
00:38:43
likely be appropriate and well worth
00:38:45
paying right if we're all putting our
00:38:47
money into this annuity pool together
00:38:49
with the understanding that some of us
00:38:51
are going to die early and others are
00:38:53
going to die late and we're all sharing
00:38:55
the risk and we know that some people
00:38:57
might benefit more than others but we're
00:38:58
okay with it because the costs are
00:39:00
really low okay that seems like a
00:39:02
reasonably fair deal but I have reviewed
00:39:05
annuities for many clients who came to
00:39:07
work with us they weren't happy with
00:39:09
their annuities they wanted to work
00:39:10
instead with a the only a fiduciary a
00:39:13
planning heavy team a traditional
00:39:16
investing firm and those annuities that
00:39:19
I've seen the the statements and and the
00:39:20
policies with my my own two eyes the
00:39:23
fees are often in the the 2 to 3% range
00:39:25
per year traditional Stock Investing you
00:39:28
you can build a portfolio of stocks and
00:39:29
bonds in the tenths of a percent range
00:39:32
and these annuities had fees 25 or 30 or
00:39:35
hundreds of times greater than that and
00:39:37
then the annuities some of which do have
00:39:40
an underlying investment product tied to
00:39:42
them I mean there's a million different
00:39:44
types of annuities and we're not going
00:39:45
to get into that here but the growth
00:39:47
rates on the annuities that I've seen
00:39:49
tended to be under 2% or under 3% per
00:39:52
year even over the past 15 years which
00:39:54
was one of the best periods for public
00:39:56
market investors in history
00:39:58
so in other words these were not
00:40:00
appropriately priced products and
00:40:02
they're certainly not a product in terms
00:40:03
of growth that you want to have all of
00:40:06
your assets in and because of that even
00:40:08
when you look at the payout structure of
00:40:09
someone who gets lucky with their
00:40:11
annuity and lives for a ridiculously
00:40:13
long time someone who has 50 or 60 years
00:40:16
worth of annuity payments or even
00:40:18
something unrealistic someone who has a
00:40:20
100 years worth of annuitized payments
00:40:22
you can calculate the return on
00:40:24
investment of that annuity so if I give
00:40:27
give you a million dollar today and then
00:40:29
I wait 10 years because that is the way
00:40:31
a lot of annuities work for what it's
00:40:32
worth there's a delay between when you
00:40:34
put the money in when you can start to
00:40:36
take the money out so I give you a
00:40:38
million dollars today and then I wait 10
00:40:40
years and then you have to start paying
00:40:42
me $10,000 a month for the next 50 years
00:40:46
$10,000 a month on a million dollar
00:40:48
investment I mean that's 1% a month
00:40:50
that's a 12% per year annual return for
00:40:53
the next 50 years and I can look at that
00:40:55
and say what's my return on invest
00:40:57
for what it's worth that's a very
00:40:59
typical type of promised return from
00:41:01
this type of annuity it's simple in
00:41:03
Microsoft Excel to do what's called an
00:41:05
internal rate of return or irr it's a
00:41:07
problem that is very easily solved and
00:41:10
you might be thinking well yeah okay 1%
00:41:12
per month a 12% annual return that's
00:41:14
huge but it only kicks in after the
00:41:17
first 10 years and meanwhile the $1
00:41:19
million original investment it's locked
00:41:21
up it's ill liquid just some basic off
00:41:24
the top of the head math it'll take 9
00:41:26
years of payments of $120,000 per year
00:41:29
for us to get our $1 million back so
00:41:32
after 10 years of nothing it then takes
00:41:34
another 9 years for us to get our money
00:41:36
back in other words our internal rate of
00:41:39
return our irr it's negative for the
00:41:42
first 18 years of that investment a
00:41:45
negative return for the first 18 years
00:41:47
of the investment not ideal so let's
00:41:48
keep going after 25 total years that's
00:41:51
10 years of waiting plus 15 years of
00:41:53
payment our irr does increase it's now
00:41:56
positive thankfully and it's 3.6% per
00:41:58
year again 25 years 3.6% per year return
00:42:03
after 40 years our IR is about
00:42:06
5.9% and if we go out to Infinity you
00:42:09
know the irr curve eventually flattens
00:42:11
out it reaches a a local limit and if we
00:42:14
have an annuity for an infinite number
00:42:15
of years our irr Max is out at about
00:42:19
6.7% so just to be clear do I want to
00:42:21
pursue an investment that is il liquid
00:42:24
has a negative rate of return for the
00:42:25
first 18 years of its life
00:42:27
and if I literally held it forever would
00:42:29
max out at a 6.7% rate of return to me
00:42:33
that is not what I'm going after in the
00:42:35
investment universe and if I have to pay
00:42:37
a 2% fee on top of that because this was
00:42:39
a feess annuity so if I have to pay a 2%
00:42:42
fee on top of that it's a non-starter so
00:42:45
now let's pivot there are a class of
00:42:47
annuities that Jonathan Clemens
00:42:49
mentioned here on the best interest
00:42:50
podcast in episode 82 that work a little
00:42:52
bit differently in fact they work so
00:42:54
much differently that Jonathan is is
00:42:56
using one in his own retirement plan
00:42:58
it's a super simple generally low fee
00:43:01
type of annuity and therefore because
00:43:03
it's low fee and has a low commission
00:43:05
it's not pushed by Insurance salespeople
00:43:08
and so far so good that's what we want
00:43:10
this type of annuity goes by a few
00:43:12
different names but you'll often hear
00:43:13
the words immediate and fixed involved
00:43:17
in the titles of these annuities
00:43:18
something like an immediate fixed
00:43:20
lifetime annuity the immediate means
00:43:23
there's no waiting period to start your
00:43:25
monthly collection and the fixed portion
00:43:27
means that your returns are not based on
00:43:29
market performance unlike the far more
00:43:32
common variable annuities which are
00:43:34
based on market performance so immediate
00:43:36
fixed annuities is what we're looking
00:43:38
after here so I went to the Schwab
00:43:40
website and I got some numbers on their
00:43:42
immediate fixed annuities I assumed it
00:43:44
was a $1 million annuity for in this
00:43:47
example I decided to use a 64y old man
00:43:50
64y old man seems like a reasonable age
00:43:53
and type of person who would be looking
00:43:54
for an immediate fixed annuity Schwab
00:43:57
would start paying this man
00:43:59
$73,000 per year right away so let's
00:44:02
plug this into Microsoft Excel let's do
00:44:04
our internal rate of return our irr it
00:44:07
takes 14 years for this guy to get his
00:44:09
money back so for the first 13 years
00:44:12
he's got a negative IR if the guy lives
00:44:15
to 84 which right 20 years of payment
00:44:17
his irr will be
00:44:19
4.5% if he lives to 90 with 26 years of
00:44:23
payment his irr jumps to 6.1% if he
00:44:26
lives to 100 years old his irr will be
00:44:30
7.2% again an annuity is longevity
00:44:33
insurance if you die early you probably
00:44:36
shouldn't expect for something called
00:44:38
Longevity Insurance to work in your
00:44:40
favor that's just the way it is but if
00:44:42
you do live to 100 which was 36 years of
00:44:45
life for this uh 64y old guy if you do
00:44:48
live to 100 is an annual rate of return
00:44:51
of 7.2% what you're looking for now my
00:44:54
honest answer is I kind of want to think
00:44:56
about it some more I'm interested to
00:44:57
know what you guys think because on the
00:44:59
one hand you could say well a 30-year
00:45:01
Bond right now is only returning 4.5%
00:45:04
per year so 7.2% sounds pretty good but
00:45:08
if I die early with a million dollars in
00:45:10
bonds I will get to pass that million
00:45:12
dollar onto my wife so she can use it
00:45:15
it's an asset that I can pass on but if
00:45:17
I die early with a million dollars in
00:45:19
immediate annuity I cannot pass those
00:45:22
dollars on to my family the money is
00:45:24
essentially gobbled up by the insurance
00:45:26
company because they have to cover the
00:45:28
risk of other people living longer that
00:45:31
is just how Insurance pools work and of
00:45:34
course many people hate this idea
00:45:36
understandably so and insurance
00:45:38
companies understand that so they do
00:45:40
offer immediate fixed annuities with a
00:45:42
Survivor benefit but nothing is free so
00:45:45
in that case the rate of return on the
00:45:47
annuity is lowered and not only is the
00:45:50
rate of return of the unity lowered but
00:45:52
the most your beneficiaries can receive
00:45:54
is the amount of your original lump sum
00:45:56
min is the amount of benefits you've
00:45:58
been given they give you your million
00:46:00
dollars back minus any payouts which I
00:46:02
think is relatively understandable but
00:46:05
why do I need an insurance company to do
00:46:06
that for me when a well-constructed
00:46:08
Investment Portfolio does the same thing
00:46:11
in my opinion but better with higher
00:46:14
long-term returns with lower fees with
00:46:17
more liquidity with more flexibility and
00:46:20
with a return on investment starting
00:46:22
from day one right I don't have to wait
00:46:23
14 years to have a positive return on
00:46:25
investment and and there's just an
00:46:27
easier inheritance plan for my heirs I
00:46:29
just get to pass the assets on to them I
00:46:31
don't have to wait for a check from an
00:46:33
insurance company so I don't see the
00:46:35
appeal of annuities necessarily even
00:46:37
when they are put in the best light
00:46:40
maybe there's a corner case where it's
00:46:41
the right tool for the right person but
00:46:43
I think those cases are are relatively
00:46:46
few and far between and to me the
00:46:48
benefits of a traditional and even a
00:46:50
conservative Investment Portfolio it's
00:46:53
better early on than the annuity and
00:46:56
it's better later on than the annuity so
00:46:58
I just don't see the appeal but Amy
00:47:00
thank you for the terrific question
00:47:02
because I think it it spawned a very
00:47:03
interesting answer and it allowed me to
00:47:05
dive deep on a topic that I haven't gone
00:47:07
too deep on before so that's it for
00:47:09
today everybody thank you for all the
00:47:11
great questions to those of you who have
00:47:13
written in I am keeping a very active
00:47:15
spreadsheet list of all the AMA
00:47:17
questions that come in and I'll do my
00:47:19
best to touch them all or to get to them
00:47:21
all if there comes a point when it's
00:47:23
just too much and too overwhelming and I
00:47:24
can't put out enough AMA episodes Maybe
00:47:26
just have to trim to the best ones but
00:47:28
keep them coming you can send your AMA
00:47:30
questions email them please to Jesse
00:47:33
bestin interest. blog and as always
00:47:35
thank you for listening to the best
00:47:37
interest
00:47:38
[Music]
00:47:40
podcast thanks for tuning in to this
00:47:42
episode of the best interest podcast if
00:47:44
you have a question for Jesse to answer
00:47:46
on a future episode send him an email at
00:47:49
Jesse bestter interest. blog again
00:47:52
that's Jesse at bestter interest. blog
00:47:55
did you enjoy the show subscribe rate
00:47:57
and review the podcast wherever you
00:47:59
listen this helps others find the show
00:48:02
and invest in knowledge themselves and
00:48:04
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00:48:06
on the next episode of the best interest
00:48:11
podcast the best interest podcast is a
00:48:14
personal podcast me for education and
00:48:16
entertainment it should not be taken as
00:48:18
Financial advice and is not prescriptive
00:48:21
of your financial situation

Episode Highlights

  • Listener Feedback
    A listener praises the podcast for its helpfulness and variety of topics.
    “I find it immensely helpful and easy to follow.”
    @ 01m 13s
    July 31, 2024
  • Mindy's Case Study
    Mindy, a widow, asks about survivor benefits and financial planning after loss.
    “That's far too young to lose a spouse.”
    @ 02m 24s
    July 31, 2024
  • Bob's Retirement Planning
    Bob seeks advice on using retirement savings for a new home mortgage.
    “A perfect financial planning question.”
    @ 11m 06s
    July 31, 2024
  • Listener Feedback Matters
    The host emphasizes the importance of listener reviews and feedback for improvement.
    “I want to know if you like my podcast episodes.”
    @ 19m 04s
    July 31, 2024
  • Understanding Compound Growth
    The host explains the concept of compound growth using a lemonade stand analogy.
    “The goal for most businesses is accelerating growth.”
    @ 22m 46s
    July 31, 2024
  • Assessing Financial Risk
    The host discusses the importance of understanding various risks in retirement planning.
    “Does Dan have the need to take on risk?”
    @ 30m 50s
    July 31, 2024
  • Understanding Term Life Insurance
    Term life insurance provides a lump sum to beneficiaries if the insured dies early, but if the policy lapses, no payout is received. 'I hope that it's a quote unquote waste of money.'
    “I hope that it's a quote unquote waste of money.”
    @ 37m 39s
    July 31, 2024
  • The Case Against Annuities
    Annuities can offer higher payouts if you live longer, but they often come with high fees and low returns. 'If I literally held it forever, would max out at a 6.7% rate of return.'
    “If I literally held it forever, would max out at a 6.7% rate of return.”
    @ 42m 29s
    July 31, 2024
  • The Appeal of Investment Portfolios
    Investment portfolios provide liquidity, flexibility, and better long-term returns compared to annuities. 'I just don’t see the appeal of annuities necessarily.'
    “I just don’t see the appeal of annuities necessarily.”
    @ 46m 35s
    July 31, 2024

Episode Quotes

Key Moments

  • Listener Review01:13
  • Listener Engagement19:04
  • Financial Risk Assessment30:50
  • Probabilistic Wager36:57
  • Emotional Security37:51
  • Annuities Explained37:58
  • Longevity Insurance38:30
  • Podcast Wrap-Up47:37

Words per Minute Over Time

Vibes Breakdown

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