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Retire Confidently With A Proven Drawdown Framework | AMA #10 - E121

November 12, 202555:31
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Welcome to personal finance for
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long-term investors, where we believe
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Benjamin Franklin's advice that an
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investment in knowledge pays the best
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interest both in finances [music] and in
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your life. Every episode teaches you
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personal finance and long-term investing
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in [music] simple terms. Now, here's
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your host, Jesse Kramer. Welcome to
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Personal Finance for Long-Term
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Investors, episode 121. I'm Jesse
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Kramer. By day, I work at a fiduciary
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wealth management firm helping clients
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nationwide. You can learn more at
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bestinterest.blog/work. [music]
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The link is in the show notes. And by
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night, I write the bestinterest blog and
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I host this [music] podcast. I put out a
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weekly email newsletter as well. All of
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which help busy professionals and
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retirees avoid mistakes and grow their
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wealth by simplifying their investing,
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their taxes. And today is our 10th Ask
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Me Anything episode, and I'll answer
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questions like, is this new fad called
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direct indexing something amazing worth
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pursuing, or just another fad to ignore?
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What happens when a couple has a
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lopsided retirement plan with one spouse
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retiring years if not decades before the
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other? We'll do a deep dive into
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deumulation, the order of operations and
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best practices around selling your
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investments to fund your retirement. But
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first, as always, we'll do a quick
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review of the week. This one is from
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Ally in Sacramento, who left a five-star
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review saying, "Just the right balance.
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What a treasure this podcast is. Jesse
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strikes just the right balance between
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being fun and lively to listen to and
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sharing superdetailed information. and
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he considers the total picture of
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personal finance. Very glad to have
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found his podcast and blog. I signed up
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for his emails and read each and every
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one. Ally, thank you for those very kind
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words and I'm glad the weekly email has
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been helpful to you. I'd be happy to
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send you some treasure, Ally. That is a
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super soft podcast t-shirt. So, please
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drop me an email to
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so I can get that sent out to you. And
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now on to the first question of our AMA.
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Question one is from Nikki. Nikki says,
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"I've appreciated everything you have to
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say about tax loss harvesting and how it
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can be overoptimized, but what are your
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thoughts on direct indexing? The
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approach is being sold like you can get
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all the gains from a fund like VTI or
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total market index fund, but with tons
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of losses you can harvest. It sounds
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intriguing, but is this placing too much
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emphasis on the wrong thing?" Nikki, I
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think that's an excellent question. So,
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let's do this. I'll talk a little bit
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about tax loss harvesting to provide
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some background there. And then I'll
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[clears throat] explain direct indexing
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through some rosy colored glasses. Then
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I'll play devil's advocate and explain
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the downside. And ultimately I'll let
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you know where I land on the topic and
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whether it's worth pursuing. So again,
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tax loss harvesting is this strategic
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investment practice where investors sell
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assets at a capital loss to offset other
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capital gains. This minimizes their
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total taxable income. It's commonly
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employed to optimize investment
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portfolios and enhance your your after
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tax returns. And people might ask, why
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bother doing it in the first place?
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Well, you have assets in your portfolio
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with unrealized losses. Selling those
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losses turns the lame asset into a tool
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in your in your toolbox. And that tool
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can neutralize taxes, lowering this
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year's tax bill. That's not bad. And
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sometimes losses can actually carry
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forward and neutralize future year's tax
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bills. any unused losses this year,
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they're tracked on your tax return and
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eventually can be used to cancel a
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future year's capital gain. Now,
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personally, I think that there are good
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and bad uses of tax loss harvesting. I
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think a really good use of tax loss
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harvesting is to offset some sort of
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liquidation event that would otherwise
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be occurring in your financial life.
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Maybe you're selling a business or a
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second home cuz usually primary homes
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don't suffer capital gains taxes
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usually. And so, that's why I say you're
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selling a second home and you might be
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facing a significant capital gain from
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that sale. Tax loss harvesting makes a
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lot of sense there because in that
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scenario, you are making the sale
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anyway. You might as well seek out ways
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of saving money and reducing your taxes
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because you're you're in the process of
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doing the sale and then realizing some
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capital losses. You are fundamentally
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reallocating your net worth away from
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the real estate or away from the
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business into something new. Perhaps
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it's just a traditional stock and bond
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investment portfolio. The gains and the
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losses are from different pools of money
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which permanently offset one another and
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that's a good thing. But as we'll see in
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a few minutes, that isn't always the
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case. Another good way of using capital
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losses, usually a usually good way, is
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to offset income. You can use tax losses
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to offset up to $3,000 a year in annual
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earned income. It's generally an
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excellent way of using tax loss
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harvesting. And the reason is simple tax
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rate arbitrage. Many taxpayers here in
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the US have a a federal marginal tax
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rate of say 22% or higher. And every
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dollar of income they can offset with a
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capital loss results in a 22% or greater
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savings. Meanwhile, harvesting losses
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usually it'll kick a can down the road
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creating some sort of 15% again usually
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15% capital gain in the future. And by
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saving 22 cents on the dollar today and
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spending 15 cents on a capital gain in
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the future, taxpayers can arbitrage that
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net 7% on their $3,000 for free. And the
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benefit becomes even more stark in
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higher tax brackets, 24, 32, 35%. And
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becomes even more stark if your future
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capital gains you can actually realize
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at 0%. Cuz that's possible, too. Another
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common tax arbitrage occurs when an
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investor might owe capital gains at the
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23.8% 8% bracket, which if we're being
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technical here, is 20% on capital gains
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and 3.8% on the net investment income
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tax, 23.8 total. Well, in that case, a
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loss can offset those gains, saving
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23.8%.
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Again, probably resulting in a 15%
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capital gain in the future or maybe a 0%
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capital gain in the future. But either
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way, that arbitrage is a deal that we
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would take every single time. I think
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whenever we're talking about tax gain or
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tax loss harvesting, we should remember
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there's a very specific order of
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operations that the IRS uses a specific
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order for how losses can offset gains.
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First, short-term losses offset
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short-term gains. So, think of this as
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the short bucket and then long-term
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capital losses offset long-term capital
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gains. So, that's the long bucket. Then
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if you still have net losses in either
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bucket, they will be used to offset the
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net gains from the other bucket. So
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capital losses always offset capital
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gains first, no matter what. Short
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offsets short, long offsets long, and
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then if you have any losses left over,
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they kind of leak over into the other
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bucket. After you've already offset all
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of your capital gains, then you can use
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any remaining capital losses to offset
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your earned income up to $3,000 of
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income per year. And then any remaining
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capital losses carry forward into the
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next year. It's important to remember
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that there is this order of operations
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for the way that capital gains are used.
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And then last, I'll use an example
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actually to talk about this one, a a
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good way that tax loss harvesting can be
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used because actually I have two clients
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going through this right now. They have
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extremely concentrated stock positions
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in a specific company. Coming into this
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year, both of these families had
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probably 20, we'll call it 20% of their
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net worth. In this one company, due to
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years of stock options, years of
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restricted stock units being given to
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them. And then in 2024, this stock was
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up about 55%. So far this year, this
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stock is up another 70 to 80%. And I
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suppose the first listener who emails me
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with a correct guess on this stock and
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this company, I'll send you a SuperSoft
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podcast t-shirt for getting the guess
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right. Up 55% in 2024, up another 70 to
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80% so far here in 2025. But anyway, the
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point is that it was very valuable for
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these families to put a plan together to
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diversify out of their concentrated
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positions. But that realizes a lot of
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capital gains and using some capital
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losses to offset those gains makes a lot
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of sense. Anyway, the point is we put a
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plan together for these families to
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begin diversifying out of their
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concentrated positions. And despite our
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bestlaid plans, the concentration is
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actually worse now than ever before
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because the stock is going up so
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quickly. It's kind of a wild situation,
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but okay, that's a good problem to deal
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with. But the point is that these are
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capital gains that both of these
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families should be realizing. And the
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reason they should be realizing them is
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because of portfolio construction and
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investment merit. There are important
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portfolio investing reasons to
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diversify. Whether they'd pay zero or 15
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or 23.8% in capital gains, they need to
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diversify anyway. Thus, for these
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families, tax loss harvesting is very
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smart. You might as well intentionally
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realize losses to offset the mammoth
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gains that they are incurring from their
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diversification needs. And I'll contrast
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that to someone who owns a lot of, say,
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the S&P 500 index fund, and they've been
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buying shares of that index fund every
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month now for years and years and years.
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And back in April of 2025, just a few
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months ago, at the bottom of the quote
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unquote tariff tantrum, that person
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would have found that many of their more
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recent S&P 500 shares are underwater,
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sitting at a loss. The index was down
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almost 20% from its from its high water
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mark. And that person could have sold
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all their newer S&P 500 shares for a
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loss, but then also sold some even older
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S&P 500 shares for a gain. The losses
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could have offset the gains, negating
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any tax impact, which feels good. And
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then they could have used all the
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proceeds from those sales to buy a
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different index fund because we have to
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be careful of this thing called the wash
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sale rule. You have to pick a different
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index fund. It's within 30 days before
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or after your sale. But then boom, they
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they stay invested in the market and
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they avoided some taxes. Well, not
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quite. That's not right. Because if you
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actually look at how all the numbers
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work out, they took a bunch of gains and
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a bunch of losses and those numbers
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offset each other. And therefore, they
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sold a bunch of their S&P 500 shares at
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a net zero gain or loss. Then they
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turned around and bought say a total
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market index fund at current market
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price, which by definition means there's
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a net zero gain or loss. And what I'm
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describing is that the cost basis has
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not changed. The point from which we
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measure capital gains hasn't changed.
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All they've done is shifted net zero
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gains from the S&P 500 index fund to a
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net zero gain in the total market index
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fund. Their tax situation, their capital
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gain situation was net zero yesterday
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and it is net zero today. They changed
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from a S&P 500 index fund to a total
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market index fund, not because of
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investment merit, but because they they
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falsely believed they were saving on
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taxes. Okay, but what does this all have
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to do with direct indexing? Direct
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indexing lets investors build their own
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personalized version of an index, say
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like the S&P 500 index, by not owning a
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fund, but by owning all of the
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individual stocks directly. So, right,
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you're not buying an ETF, you are owning
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all of the indiv individual stocks
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directly. This approach gives more
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flexibility. Investors can customize
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their holdings maybe by excluding
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certain companies or industries. Yes,
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they can harvest tax losses on specific
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positions. That's kind of one of the
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appeals. They can control when capital
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gains are realized. Another one of the
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appeals and direct indexing used to be
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limited to the ultra wealthy investors
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because of some of the complexity and
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the cost of setting it up. But new
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technology and then also fractional
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shares has made direct indexing much
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more accessible to everyday investors
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like us. So in short, it is indexing but
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with a little bit of personalization and
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tax optimization built in. Now here's
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the rosy colored optimist sales pitch
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for direct indexing. It's that it's for
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investors who want the power of indexing
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with a personal touch. It keeps broad
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diversification, which we like. It keeps
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relatively low costs, which we like, but
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it adds in customization and it adds in
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control. We can tailor our portfolios to
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reflect our values. Maybe if we are into
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green energy, we avoid fossil fuel
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stocks and we double down on clean
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energy. So, we have our values in our
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portfolio. And then we optimize taxes
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through loss harvesting. And then over
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time that tax efficiency should
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meaningfully boost our after tax
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returns. And it's also very transparent.
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We see every single stock we own. So in
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a best case scenario, direct indexing
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delivers higher returns, lower taxes,
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and a portfolio that perfectly reflects
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our personal goals and beliefs. But
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here's the pessimist's rebuke. It's that
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direct indexing sounds revolutionary,
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but much of the hype really has outpaced
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reality. It's sold as better returns and
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lower taxes and more control. But those
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benefits really depend on active
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management and some discipline that many
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investors don't maintain. The tax
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harvesting edge is something that I
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think shrinks over time and actually can
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disappear in rising markets just like
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markets we've seen recently. And then
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the customization part of direct
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indexing leads to something called
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tracking error which I will define in a
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minute where your your portfolio doesn't
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match the index at all. And while fees
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of direct indexing have dropped, they
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still carry significantly higher fees
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than traditional indexing. And for many,
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many reasons, in many cases, I should
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say, investors would just be better off
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sticking with plain lowcost ETFs. So,
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let's actually dive into a little
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example. In any given year, we know that
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some of the 500 companies in the S&P 500
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will be up and others will be down. A
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direct index allows us to sell some of
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those down companies or some of the
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shares of the companies that are down to
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realize those losses and then to use
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those losses for tax minimization in
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other areas of our financial plan while
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still maintaining this greater skeleton
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of the S&P 500 index. But a direct index
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doesn't exist inside of an ETF wrapper.
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Instead, you directly own the individual
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stocks. And that ownership is what
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enables our customization and and loss
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harvesting in the first place. So that's
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something that ETFs can't do internally,
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but it also introduces some natural
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inefficiencies. More trading, smaller
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tax slots to manage, and then higher
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transaction costs and more tracking
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error. An ETF, though, in contrast,
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extremely efficient. It nets out trades
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internally. It defers capital gains out
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to the future. So while direct indexing
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offers flexibility and personalization,
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it cannot fully replicate the structural
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efficiency and simplicity of an ETF. And
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now I've used that term tracking error a
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couple times. Tracking error is the
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difference between your portfolio's
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performance and the benchmark it's
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trying to mimic. Like in our case so
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far, the S&P 500. Tracking error is a
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measure of how closely or not your
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results follow the index. And and that
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tracking error is caused by the
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customization choices or the trading
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delays or the intentional realization of
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losses along the way. And one of the
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problems with direct indexing is that
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the better it works at realizing tax
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losses, the greater its tracking error
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will be. Next thing you know, you're not
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really going to own the S&P 500 anymore.
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you've created a portfolio that has some
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of the S&P 500 companies but also has
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some holes where other S&P 5 companies
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used to be because those are the
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companies that had the losses that you
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realize to make it a direct index and
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you end up with these not huge
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concentration risks but still an
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accidental concentration risk where you
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wanted to have an index instead. And
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then last, we need to think back to the
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previous stanza about good and bad uses
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of tax loss harvesting on the whole.
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Because if you're realizing losses
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simply for the sake of realizing losses
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and then you're somehow redeploying
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those proceeds back into the portfolio,
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you might not actually be changing the
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cost basis of the portfolio, right?
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You're just playing hot potato with a
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cost basis, deferring capital gains out
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to some future date. And all of these
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are examples where we're choosing the
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tax tail over the investing dog. And
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that's usually, not always, but usually
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the wrong thing to do. Direct indexing
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at the end of the day, it's sold as this
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mimic of the index itself, but with the
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ability to realize more losses. And in
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reality, I would say that we're choosing
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to accept tracking error in exchange for
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losses. And unless we have a smart way
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to to utilize those losses for
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legitimate reasons, for actual
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investment merit, for actual financial
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planning merit, then we never really
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needed those losses in the first place,
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right? Unless we're using them really
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well. And in the example of a S&P 500
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direct indexing, the fees might be in
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the range of 30, 40, 50 basis points,
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that aren't necessarily outrageous fees,
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but they're 10 to 20 times greater than
00:15:49
the fees for a simple S&P 500 ETF. So my
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final verdict, if you showed me, you
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know, again, I'm I'm working here and
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under the American tax system. If you
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showed me a hundred typical Americans or
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even 100 typical listeners of the show
00:16:02
who tend to be more financially
00:16:04
literate, wealthier than normal, more
00:16:06
apt to have some complexities in their
00:16:08
financial lives. Even that being said, I
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would bet you that fewer than 10 of
00:16:13
those 100 people would be a truly good
00:16:15
fit for direct indexing. Or another way
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of saying it, I I bet that 90 of those
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100 people would be worse off for
00:16:21
pursuing direct indexing than if they
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stuck with a simpler path in the first
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place. Here's a quick ad and then we'll
00:16:27
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>> But Jesse, I don't want another email.
00:16:52
Well, this might not be for you, but I
00:16:54
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00:16:56
short, sweet, and full of only the
00:16:58
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00:17:16
Thank you for that awesome question,
00:17:17
Nikki. And now on to question two from
00:17:19
Kevin Jesse. A future podcast idea. How
00:17:22
to approach financial and tax planning
00:17:23
when a couple has a lopsided retirement.
00:17:26
One spouse early, the other spouse
00:17:27
retires late. This is my fortunate
00:17:30
situation with my wife working in the
00:17:31
financial services industry, making a
00:17:33
very good living. We have always filed
00:17:35
our taxes as married filing jointly when
00:17:37
I was working. But I wonder if there
00:17:39
would be an advantage to me if we
00:17:40
changed our tax filing approach so that
00:17:42
I could benefit now that I'm in a lower
00:17:44
tax bracket if I were filing single.
00:17:46
It's a long suggestion, but I hope this
00:17:48
idea makes sense over email. Kevin, it
00:17:49
definitely makes sense. Uh, so let's
00:17:51
make sure listeners we answer both parts
00:17:53
of Kevin's question today. The first
00:17:54
part is what are some general
00:17:56
considerations for a couple who plan on
00:17:58
retiring at vastly different times. And
00:18:00
then the second is more specifics on
00:18:02
those tax thoughts whether to file
00:18:04
separately or jointly. We'll kind of
00:18:05
dive into that a little bit. Again, not
00:18:07
an accountant. This isn't tax advice per
00:18:09
se, but I've done enough tax planning to
00:18:11
to know my way around this conversation.
00:18:14
First, the general thoughts. I don't
00:18:16
want to discount the soft side of
00:18:17
retirement. So let me first point out
00:18:18
the psychological impact. There might be
00:18:20
a really big change in household
00:18:22
lifestyle when one spouse retires years
00:18:24
if not decades before the second one.
00:18:27
Most retirees face new unforeseen shifts
00:18:30
in identity, activity versus boredom,
00:18:32
social circle changes, that kind of
00:18:34
thing. And I would assume it's probably
00:18:36
uh exacerbated when the two two spouses
00:18:39
are retiring at vastly different times.
00:18:41
My first thought, Kevin, is about cash
00:18:43
flow. It's true for just about any
00:18:44
single retirement plan. when you guys go
00:18:46
down to one income, my main question
00:18:47
would be, will you now have to start
00:18:49
living off of some of your investments
00:18:51
and investment income or does your
00:18:53
wife's salary cover all the household
00:18:55
expenses? If you do have to draw on your
00:18:57
assets, Kevin, that opens up an entire
00:18:59
can of worms. The next question today
00:19:01
will be all about accumulation, so I
00:19:03
won't dive too deeply into deumulation
00:19:05
right now. I think that medical coverage
00:19:08
is another thing to be aware of. I'm
00:19:09
assuming you could probably both easily
00:19:11
and relatively cheaply go on your wife's
00:19:14
employer's coverage, but it's worth
00:19:15
knowing in advance. Let's pivot now
00:19:17
specifically to the tax question, and
00:19:19
we'll talk about the difference between
00:19:20
married filing jointly and married
00:19:22
filing separate, which I'll just call
00:19:24
joint and separate to be clear. The vast
00:19:27
majority of the time, filing jointly is
00:19:29
going to be better than filing
00:19:30
separately. It's only beneficial to file
00:19:33
separately in a few specific
00:19:34
circumstances. Namely, those are
00:19:36
circumstances in life where maybe you
00:19:39
can't trust or you can't get along with
00:19:41
or you can't contact your spouse in some
00:19:43
cases where your spouse owes back child
00:19:46
support. Maybe if you have to file a
00:19:48
state return and it comes out better
00:19:50
filing separately than jointly. And also
00:19:53
the state requires you to match your
00:19:54
federal filing status. That can happen.
00:19:56
And then there are certain student loan
00:19:58
and other kind of federal loan repayment
00:20:00
situations where filing separately makes
00:20:03
more sense than filing jointly. They
00:20:04
really are a corner cases. In general,
00:20:07
Kevin, it does not make sense for
00:20:09
retirees to file separately. Even in
00:20:11
your situation, filing jointly means
00:20:14
that the higher earnner can essentially
00:20:16
use the unused space from the lower
00:20:18
earners lower tax brackets. Filing
00:20:21
separately disqualifies you from that
00:20:23
idea. It also disqualifies you from a
00:20:26
variety of credits and deductions. Also,
00:20:28
if one spouse itemizes deductions, the
00:20:31
other spouse is required to also itemize
00:20:33
deductions and cannot take the standard
00:20:34
deduction, which would probably hurt in
00:20:36
your situation. Filing jointly usually
00:20:39
has lower tax brackets and rates,
00:20:41
allowing more income to be taxed at
00:20:43
lower rates. Filing separately, rates
00:20:45
are generally higher at lower income
00:20:47
levels, meaning you often pay more tax.
00:20:49
I'll just use a round number, Kevin, in
00:20:51
your situation. Let's say that your
00:20:52
wife, your spouse, earns $300,000.
00:20:55
Kevin, I'll assume no other income just
00:20:57
to make it easy. No interest, no
00:20:58
dividends, just $300,000 of W2 income.
00:21:01
If you file separately, the tax on that
00:21:04
income would be $69,000 and change. If
00:21:07
you file jointly, the tax would be
00:21:09
$50,000 and change, a full $19,000 less
00:21:13
in federal taxes. Now, to your point,
00:21:16
Kevin, maybe you're in early retirement.
00:21:18
So, what if you, Kevin, are trying to do
00:21:19
Roth conversions? So, what if you now
00:21:21
have your wife's $300,000 plus $100,000
00:21:24
in your Roth conversions? The income is
00:21:27
Kevin's wife's. The Roth conversion is
00:21:30
Kevin's. If they file separately, those
00:21:32
burdens would be separated out. So, if
00:21:35
you do file separately, the two taxes
00:21:37
would be 69,000 and change, the same as
00:21:39
we just discussed for the W2 income. And
00:21:41
then on your Roth conversion, Kevin,
00:21:43
would be 13,600 for a grand total just
00:21:46
shy of $83,000 in taxes. If you file
00:21:50
jointly, the combined tax would be
00:21:52
74,000 and change. 83,000 versus 74,000.
00:21:56
These numbers are closer than the first
00:21:57
situation, but married filing jointly
00:22:00
still makes sense. The difference in
00:22:02
standard deduction is another important
00:22:03
difference here. Filing jointly for a
00:22:06
couple under the age of 65. Here in
00:22:08
2025, you would get $27,700
00:22:12
in deduction. And if you file
00:22:14
separately, you each get half of that
00:22:15
amount. You each get $13,850.
00:22:18
But Kevin, if your income in retirement
00:22:20
is extremely low, it might mean that
00:22:22
some of your standard deduction
00:22:24
essentially goes unused, which is
00:22:26
another reason to file jointly so that
00:22:27
your high earning wife can use the
00:22:29
entire the entirety, I should say, of
00:22:31
both your standard deductions. I
00:22:34
mentioned earlier that credits can
00:22:35
change. So, when you file jointly, you
00:22:38
basically get to claim all of the
00:22:40
standard credits, the earned income tax
00:22:42
credit, child tax credit, education
00:22:44
credits. When you file separately, many
00:22:46
of those credits are disallowed. There's
00:22:48
some other ones worth knowing, too.
00:22:50
There's issues when you file separately
00:22:51
about itemizing deductions. There are
00:22:54
much much lower phase outs for IRA
00:22:57
deduction limits. There are much much
00:22:58
lower phase outs for Roth IRA
00:23:00
contribution limits. There's usually uh
00:23:04
higher social security taxation. And and
00:23:06
then there really are only a few corner
00:23:08
cases where filing separately makes
00:23:10
sense. The student loan repayment corner
00:23:12
case is one which if you're interested
00:23:14
you can kind of Google some examples of
00:23:16
that and then I would say the liability
00:23:18
issue is the other one where if you file
00:23:20
jointly both spouses are jointly liable
00:23:23
for any underpayment or adjustments
00:23:25
whereas if you file separately each
00:23:27
spouse is only responsible for their own
00:23:29
return which in situations where your
00:23:32
spouse is separated or you don't trust
00:23:34
your spouse can protect you if from from
00:23:36
your spouse essentially making a mistake
00:23:38
on their tax return. So, in short,
00:23:40
Kevin, I think there are rarely any
00:23:42
cases where married filing separately
00:23:43
makes sense, even in a case where you're
00:23:45
retiring a decade before your spouse.
00:23:48
But, as always, something I would
00:23:49
encourage you to do is there are some
00:23:51
1040 calculators on online. I use one on
00:23:54
the guidest website, the Guideste 1040
00:23:57
calculator, and I'd encourage you plug
00:23:59
some numbers into the 1040 calculator,
00:24:01
change the filing status from joint to
00:24:02
separate, and just see in your situation
00:24:04
if it makes sense or not. So, thank you,
00:24:06
Kevin, for that great question. And now
00:24:07
on to question three from Isaac. Isaac
00:24:09
said, "If you were to dedicate a whole
00:24:11
episode to one topic for me, the most
00:24:13
useful topic would be on the ins and
00:24:14
outs of deaccumulation in retirement.
00:24:16
I'm hoping to retire in a couple years,
00:24:18
so this would be really helpful. I know
00:24:20
hiring a financial planner is one
00:24:21
option, but what about for the DIY
00:24:23
folks? It looks like annual withdrawals
00:24:25
would be the easiest way to approach
00:24:26
this and would really like your
00:24:27
thoughts. Bill Ben's 4% rule, I believe,
00:24:30
is based on a 30-year retirement, but
00:24:32
what would be the good draw down rate
00:24:33
for someone retiring at 55? I know a
00:24:36
fixed withdrawal amount doesn't make a
00:24:37
lot of sense. However, it would be good
00:24:39
to know what appropriate draw down rate
00:24:41
would be as a reference point. Yeah, I
00:24:43
think it's easiest, Isaac, to start
00:24:45
tackling the second part of your
00:24:47
question first and to answer it
00:24:49
relatively subjectively, at least right
00:24:51
now, because there's been a ton of
00:24:53
really good work, extremely good
00:24:55
articles and podcast content and YouTube
00:24:57
videos, depending on what you're if
00:24:59
you're listening to a podcast, maybe you
00:25:01
like listening to podcasts. So, so I'll
00:25:02
start with that one. But there's there
00:25:03
have been so much good content uh over
00:25:05
recent years about the good, bad, and
00:25:08
ugly of the 4% rule, whether the 4% rule
00:25:10
is still valid, whether it should be
00:25:11
more like the 4.7 or the 5% rule,
00:25:14
misunderstandings of what the 4% rule is
00:25:16
even based on in the first place. And
00:25:18
then to your point, Isaac, the fact that
00:25:21
the 4% rule shouldn't be static, the
00:25:23
fact that it should be dynamic, and how
00:25:25
exactly is it dynamic? Do we use some
00:25:28
sort of guardrails approach? Do we just
00:25:30
accept the fact that there's variable
00:25:32
spending in retirement and then try to
00:25:33
plan that spending as best we can and
00:25:35
then run a Monte Carlo analysis on that
00:25:37
spending to see how it would survive
00:25:39
over 25, 30, 40 years or more. You can
00:25:42
try all these things and and they all
00:25:44
have merit to them. But I think at the
00:25:46
end of the day, the point is that for
00:25:48
any 55year-old, in your case, Isaac, to
00:25:51
look at their portfolio, let's say it's
00:25:53
got a million dollars in it to keep it
00:25:54
easy, and to say, "Yeah, I'm going to
00:25:57
spend $40,000 here in year 1, 4%. I'm
00:25:59
going to spend $40,000 exactly. And then
00:26:02
in year two of retirement, I'm going to
00:26:03
adjust that up for inflation." So 40,000
00:26:06
becomes, you know, 41,500, something
00:26:09
like that. And that's exactly what I'm
00:26:10
going to spend in year two. on and on
00:26:12
and on to have that rigid of a structure
00:26:14
of spending. We just know that's
00:26:16
unrealistic. And so rather than doing
00:26:18
that, I think the much smarter way and
00:26:20
and the way that I usually approach it
00:26:21
myself involves using some financial
00:26:24
planning software, estimating as best we
00:26:27
can what our cash flows will look like
00:26:29
at least over the coming 5, 7, 10, 15
00:26:33
years. I mean, most of us can make
00:26:35
pretty reasonable assumptions on that. I
00:26:37
know we don't know how inflation will
00:26:38
affect us, but we can look at our lives.
00:26:41
We can look at maybe our children. We
00:26:43
can look at big events coming up and we
00:26:45
might know when we have college payments
00:26:47
due. We might be able to just pencil in
00:26:50
when we're going to contribute to a
00:26:51
child's wedding or something like that.
00:26:53
And then we know our lifestyle costs.
00:26:55
And so we can look out and we can even
00:26:57
build in some lumpy costs intentionally.
00:26:59
We can say, I assume every 3 years I'm
00:27:01
going to have this extraordinary cost
00:27:03
that's $15,000.
00:27:05
The point is that we can build out a a
00:27:07
cash flow in a way that um more
00:27:10
resembles reality, isn't static, but has
00:27:12
a little dynamism to it. And then we can
00:27:15
run a Monte Carlo analysis on that.
00:27:18
There's some really cool guardrails
00:27:19
approaches out there that exist that
00:27:21
basically say at any given time using
00:27:24
some sort of historical back test, I
00:27:27
want to have an 80 or 90 or 95% chance
00:27:31
of retirement success or maybe even
00:27:33
lower, maybe a 60% chance of retirement
00:27:35
success. It's really in the eye of the
00:27:37
beholder. It's up to you as the one
00:27:38
who's deciding to pull the retirement
00:27:40
trigger how you want to approach it. But
00:27:42
the point is that you can adjust your
00:27:43
withdrawals over time such that when
00:27:46
times are good, in order to have your
00:27:48
90% chance of success, you can actually
00:27:50
increase your spending. And then when
00:27:52
times are bad, in order to maintain that
00:27:54
90% chance of success, you have to
00:27:56
throttle down your spending. It builds
00:27:58
dynamism into it. Dynamism though in
00:28:01
that case isn't necessarily based on
00:28:03
what you want to do with your money in
00:28:05
that particular year. Instead, the
00:28:07
dynamism is a function of how is the
00:28:09
market performing and how much have I
00:28:10
withdrawn before. You know, in other
00:28:12
words, there might be some times using
00:28:14
those guardrail strategies where you've
00:28:16
been planning this trip to Europe for 3
00:28:18
years and you have every single detail
00:28:21
pencled into your notebook and yet
00:28:24
because the market happened to drop 20%
00:28:26
6 months ago, your guardrail strategy
00:28:28
informs you that you can no longer
00:28:30
afford that trip. So my point is that
00:28:33
you know there's gives and there's pros
00:28:34
and cons and gives and takes I suppose
00:28:36
that do you want the market to dictate
00:28:38
exactly what you spend at all times.
00:28:41
Maybe I'm not explaining that perfectly.
00:28:42
Maybe I'm I'm being a little overly
00:28:44
critical of guardrail strategy cuz I I
00:28:46
do think the guardrail strategy is
00:28:47
really interesting, really smart
00:28:49
actually. It's just a matter of whenever
00:28:51
we do financial planning, we have to
00:28:52
accept certain risks. And one of the
00:28:55
things we have to accept from a
00:28:56
guardrail strategy is that the strategy
00:28:59
itself and the returns that the market
00:29:02
gives us might at times throttle down
00:29:04
our spending when we've been hoping to
00:29:07
spend more and and that's just something
00:29:09
we have to accept. So now that's my
00:29:11
subjective answer to Benan's 4% rule to
00:29:15
altering it to live a more dynamic
00:29:17
retirement to live a retirement that is
00:29:19
fewer than 30 years or more than 30
00:29:21
years to avoid the fixed withdrawal
00:29:23
amount. So that that's where I'd start
00:29:26
that answer Isaac and I'd encourage you
00:29:27
to go out and and check out some of the
00:29:29
resources that I kind of referred to
00:29:30
there. Now, when it comes to the actual
00:29:34
retirement order of operations,
00:29:35
retirement withdrawal order of
00:29:37
operations, I'm going to throw a link in
00:29:39
the show notes to an article I wrote in
00:29:40
June. The article is titled Your
00:29:42
Retirement Withdrawal Order of
00:29:44
Operations. It is a long and and kind of
00:29:47
deep article. And one thing I' I'd point
00:29:49
out about this article, it's not a light
00:29:51
read, but I encourage you to read it
00:29:53
nonetheless. I think it's a very deep
00:29:54
and and good read. And what I've done in
00:29:56
there too is I've linked to a bunch of
00:29:58
other helpful deaccumulation articles
00:30:01
like how much can you safely withdraw
00:30:03
from your portfolio each year, how
00:30:05
should you tax optimize, where your
00:30:07
assets live, what assets should you own,
00:30:10
how much risk should you take, how do
00:30:11
you design a good portfolio, questions
00:30:14
like that. But enough preamble. Let's
00:30:17
start with the foundational concepts of
00:30:18
retirement withdrawals. The core of
00:30:21
retirement withdrawals, usually we have
00:30:23
one of the following goals. We want to
00:30:26
maximize our after tax lifetime income.
00:30:29
We want to ensure we can always spend
00:30:31
what we want to spend and we want to
00:30:34
ensure that we can give in life or in
00:30:36
death to people or causes that we care
00:30:38
about. And no matter that personal goal,
00:30:41
it's essential to understand among many
00:30:43
other things some of these following
00:30:45
aspects of your situation. And we'll
00:30:47
dive into each of these as over the next
00:30:49
few minutes. We need to understand
00:30:51
investment longevity requirements. We
00:30:54
need to understand how to minimize
00:30:56
market and longevity risk, tax
00:30:58
efficiency, the various tax status of
00:31:00
our accounts, our income needs and our
00:31:02
lifestyle goals, required minimum
00:31:04
distributions, Medicare IMA brackets,
00:31:07
ACA subsidy cliffs if we're retiring
00:31:09
before 65, and legacy or charitable
00:31:12
goals among some other things. So, those
00:31:14
are some of the keys that we that we
00:31:16
need to follow. But first, let's start
00:31:18
with the standard withdrawal order of
00:31:20
operations. My metaphor, my analogy
00:31:23
here, maybe it's not the best one, but
00:31:25
imagine we're sitting inside of an
00:31:26
auditorium. And in the auditorium, it's
00:31:28
kind of like one of the kind of classic
00:31:30
concert halls. And there are a lot of
00:31:32
these doors on the side. There's some
00:31:34
doors behind the stage. There are many,
00:31:35
many side rooms in this auditorium. So,
00:31:38
when you walk into the back of the
00:31:39
auditorium, you can look around and you
00:31:41
get a really solid overview of the space
00:31:43
that you've just stepped into into this
00:31:44
large hall. You see the size, you see
00:31:46
the seating, you see the stage, you see
00:31:48
all the main aspects, but from where you
00:31:51
are in the back of the auditorium, you
00:31:53
can't really look into all the little
00:31:54
side doors and side rooms. If you want
00:31:57
100% understanding, you need to spend
00:31:59
some time exploring each of those small
00:32:01
rooms. And I think the retirement
00:32:03
withdrawal landscape is kind of similar
00:32:05
to that. So over this time over the next
00:32:08
few minutes I'm going to describe the
00:32:10
large auditorium of retirement
00:32:12
withdrawals and I'm going to provide a
00:32:13
solid overview of that space and I'm
00:32:15
going to allude to many of the small
00:32:17
side rooms and maybe even peek inside a
00:32:19
few of them. So I think most of you are
00:32:21
going to walk away with this adequate
00:32:22
lay of the land and quite a few of you
00:32:24
in fact will walk away with enough
00:32:26
information to probably completely plan
00:32:28
your retirement withdrawal strategy. the
00:32:30
rest of you at least will feel
00:32:31
comfortable, but maybe you'll want a
00:32:33
little bit more details about the
00:32:34
specific side rooms that apply to you.
00:32:37
Here's a quick ad and then we'll get
00:32:38
back to the show. I still remember it
00:32:40
was 2019 and a guy from Fidelity came in
00:32:43
to speak to my then employer about
00:32:45
personal finance in general and about
00:32:46
our 401k plan in particular. There were
00:32:49
60 or so of us who attended, mostly 50
00:32:52
plus years old, clearly with retirement
00:32:54
on their minds. And nothing against this
00:32:56
individual from Fidelity, but
00:32:58
unfortunately the guy just didn't really
00:32:59
know what he was talking about. It ended
00:33:01
up being a major disappointment. And a
00:33:03
bunch of my colleagues afterwards said,
00:33:04
in short, you know, man, we're really
00:33:06
thirsty for good financial retirement
00:33:08
information. Where do we go find it?
00:33:11
Now, does that sound true listeners for
00:33:13
you and your colleagues? Last year,
00:33:15
either in person or via Zoom, I spoke to
00:33:17
about 800 employees at 11 different
00:33:20
organizations. sometimes about personal
00:33:22
finance in general, sometimes about
00:33:23
specifics of their retirement plans,
00:33:25
sometimes about the the nitty-gritty
00:33:27
details of social security and
00:33:28
withdrawal planning and retirement math.
00:33:30
The point being, if you're interested in
00:33:32
inviting me to come talk money to you,
00:33:35
to your colleagues, where you work, that
00:33:37
is absolutely something I'm interested
00:33:38
in talking to you about. Simply drop me
00:33:40
an email to [email protected]
00:33:43
and let's start a conversation. So,
00:33:45
let's talk about that large auditorium,
00:33:47
the standard withdrawal order of
00:33:49
operations. What follows are rules of
00:33:51
thumb, not laws. You know, they're
00:33:52
rooted in in logic and tax math. At its
00:33:56
core, this particular framework is about
00:33:58
maximizing after tax income over your
00:34:00
retirement years. And if I neglect to
00:34:03
say it, I want you to continually
00:34:05
imagine the phrase if you still need
00:34:07
money. And so, this might go without
00:34:08
saying, but if you don't need the money,
00:34:10
you shouldn't withdraw anything. You
00:34:12
should allow your portfolio to continue
00:34:13
to compound. But rather than say if you
00:34:15
still need money a million times over
00:34:17
the next five minutes, please imagine
00:34:19
it's there. So in the order of
00:34:21
operations here, taxable accounts come
00:34:23
first. You should first withdraw money
00:34:25
from your taxable accounts. If you have
00:34:27
extra cash in your bank account that is
00:34:29
extra beyond your emergency fund, spend
00:34:31
that first in retirement. It's a
00:34:33
no-brainer. Next, you want to tap into
00:34:35
the interest and dividends that might
00:34:37
have acred in your taxable brokerage
00:34:38
investing account. You're going to be
00:34:40
taxed on that money anyway in the year
00:34:42
that it's been paid out to you. It's
00:34:43
better to use that money on your monthly
00:34:45
spending needs than reinvest it and
00:34:47
realize other taxable income elsewhere.
00:34:50
Typically, though not always, and this
00:34:52
is why this is one of those small
00:34:53
sidearms. So, typically, though not
00:34:54
always, you should next realize capital
00:34:57
gains in your taxable account. Long-term
00:35:00
capital gains have preferential tax
00:35:02
treatment compared to normal income. And
00:35:04
when I say normal income, one example of
00:35:06
that would be withdrawals from
00:35:08
traditional retirement accounts.
00:35:10
Traditional tax deferred retirement
00:35:11
accounts come out as normal income.
00:35:14
You'd rather realize long-term capital
00:35:16
gains than realize normal income.
00:35:18
Selling from a taxable account also
00:35:20
creates cost basis flexibility. You can
00:35:22
choose which lots to sell. You can
00:35:24
manage gains and losses to control your
00:35:26
taxes. In some cases, you can realize
00:35:28
capital gains, maybe even at a 0% tax
00:35:30
rate in years with little to no other
00:35:32
income. Not bad. After you've realized
00:35:35
taxable accounts first, tax deferred
00:35:38
accounts come next. traditional 401k and
00:35:40
IRA accounts. These are accounts where
00:35:42
you haven't paid a lick of tax yet, but
00:35:45
each dollar you withdraw will be treated
00:35:46
again as income and therefore subject to
00:35:48
income taxes. Ideally though, you won't
00:35:51
touch these accounts until after age 59
00:35:53
and a half. Though, here's another small
00:35:55
side room. There are interesting
00:35:57
workarounds to this age limit such as
00:35:59
72T substantially equal periodic
00:36:02
payments or SEP. The rule of 55 is
00:36:05
another one which applies to I believe
00:36:08
it's 401k accounts. If you retire from
00:36:11
an employer when you are 55 years old or
00:36:13
later, you can pull money out of those
00:36:15
401k accounts without paying any sort of
00:36:18
early withdrawal penalties. So these
00:36:20
withdrawals out of your traditional IRA
00:36:21
accounts are taxable as income and they
00:36:23
will affect other parts of your
00:36:25
financial plan such as your marginal tax
00:36:27
bracket, social security taxation,
00:36:29
Medicare, Irma brackets. Nevertheless,
00:36:31
starting with withdrawals from tax
00:36:33
deferred traditional accounts from an
00:36:35
earlier age can be a smart thing to do.
00:36:37
Doing so helps mitigate larger RMDs in
00:36:41
the future that might push you into
00:36:43
higher tax brackets or affect your
00:36:44
Medicare premiums. Roth conversions can
00:36:47
certainly accomplish the same exact
00:36:48
goal. Although the converted dollars
00:36:50
don't end up as spendable money usually,
00:36:53
I mean, they go into your Roth IRA and
00:36:55
you might not want to immediately spend
00:36:56
them out of your Roth IRA. Something
00:36:59
called bracket stuffing is a pretty
00:37:01
common tactic here too. Not to be
00:37:03
confused with the Thanksgiving dish
00:37:04
depending on when this uh episode comes
00:37:06
out, but bracket stuffing describes the
00:37:08
process of intentionally taking tax
00:37:11
deferred withdrawals or more commonly
00:37:13
using Roth conversions to stuff your
00:37:16
particular tax bracket until it's quote
00:37:18
unquote full of income before getting
00:37:20
pushed into a higher bracket. The goal
00:37:23
is to maximize or to fill your lower tax
00:37:26
brackets every single year, especially
00:37:28
again if high large RMDs are somewhere
00:37:30
in your future. The caveats here are to
00:37:33
ensure that you have enough cash on hand
00:37:34
to pay your taxes, to be wary of Irma
00:37:37
territory if you're already of Medicare
00:37:39
age, to understand how your social
00:37:41
security taxation might be affected. I
00:37:43
can't recommend this enough. you or a
00:37:45
professional you hire should understand
00:37:47
enough about the federal 1040 tax return
00:37:50
to at least lightly dig into your
00:37:52
specific tax scenario. Again, I'll link
00:37:54
in the show notes the Guidest 1040 tax
00:37:57
calculator. The reason why I'm talking
00:37:59
about it right now is cuz it's free and
00:38:00
it's easy. It's certainly not a
00:38:02
professional tax planning software, but
00:38:05
it's a free easy Googleable 1040 tax
00:38:08
calculator that at least it's enough
00:38:10
that to be dangerous. It's enough to
00:38:12
know if you're if you're kind of walking
00:38:13
into murky waters. And then last in this
00:38:16
order of operations are tax-free
00:38:18
accounts. Roth and HSA accounts. Taxfree
00:38:21
accounts are the holy grail of
00:38:22
retirement planning. No, they don't
00:38:24
provide eternal life. But perhaps a
00:38:26
better metaphor is like a joker or a
00:38:27
wild card. In a tight tax bind, you can
00:38:30
withdraw money from Roth accounts or in
00:38:33
the case of HSA for qualified purposes
00:38:35
for medical purposes with zero tax
00:38:37
consequence. And so why do we want to
00:38:39
save them for last? I mean, they are
00:38:41
your MVCs, not MVPs, but MVCs. They are
00:38:44
your most valuable compounders. Unlike
00:38:47
your dollars that compound with capital
00:38:48
gains taxes attached to them or your
00:38:50
dollars in tax deferred accounts that
00:38:53
compound with an income tax attached, a
00:38:55
Roth or an HSA dollar compound tax-free.
00:38:59
Second, they're not subject to RMDs. You
00:39:01
can let them compound forever. Third,
00:39:03
your Roth dollars are ideal for legacy
00:39:05
giving and estate planning. Your heirs
00:39:07
can inherit those Roth assets. let them
00:39:09
continue compounding and then withdraw
00:39:11
them after 10 years without any tax
00:39:13
consequence. So again, that's the
00:39:14
10-year rule of an inherited IRA. And
00:39:16
I'll say this idea of leaving these
00:39:19
tax-free assets to heirs, very good for
00:39:21
Roth. This idea does not apply to HSA
00:39:25
dollars. You can do what you want, but I
00:39:27
would not recommend that you leave HSA
00:39:29
dollars to a non-spouse heir. And we'll
00:39:32
discuss the reason why later. And last,
00:39:34
when it comes to HSAs and Roths, these
00:39:36
dollars provide a lot of tax flexibility
00:39:39
later in life when RMDs and andor Irma
00:39:41
sir charges can become bigger concerns.
00:39:44
Again, not always, but they can become a
00:39:45
bigger concern. So, imagine an
00:39:48
additional surprise expense pops up in
00:39:49
your late7s. You already have medium to
00:39:52
high RMD income, and to cover your
00:39:54
unexpected need, you might have to
00:39:57
realize capital gains at 15 or 20% tax
00:40:00
plus the 3.8% NII tax. Or you might have
00:40:03
to realize income at 24 or 32% or higher
00:40:07
tax plus state tax. Or you could just
00:40:10
withdraw some money out of your Roth
00:40:12
accounts taxfree. That's a pretty nice
00:40:14
safety battle to have at all points
00:40:16
throughout your retirement. So Roth
00:40:18
dollars and HSA dollars should generally
00:40:20
be the last dollars you withdraw. And
00:40:23
that's the auditorium. That's the big
00:40:24
room that we've just walked into.
00:40:26
taxable accounts first, especially with
00:40:28
the cash you already have and with the
00:40:30
cash that's foisted upon you from
00:40:32
interest and dividends, tax deferred
00:40:34
accounts next, mainly because you don't
00:40:36
mind realizing some taxes at lower rates
00:40:39
and you'd rather not touch your Roth
00:40:40
accounts too soon. And then tax-free
00:40:42
accounts last because these are your
00:40:44
MVCs, your most valuable compounders.
00:40:46
And this is the starting point. We
00:40:48
haven't explored the small rooms yet. As
00:40:50
your retirement unfolds, many other
00:40:52
scenarios can affect when and how to
00:40:54
tweak that order. The first side room
00:40:57
we'll explore involves Roth conversions
00:40:59
and tax bracket management. I've written
00:41:01
extensively on these topics before. I
00:41:02
recommend you start with the previous
00:41:04
articles I've written. Should you
00:41:06
consider Roth conversions and the
00:41:07
powerful benefits of Roth conversions?
00:41:09
These links again are in the article.
00:41:12
The article is in the show notes,
00:41:13
retirement withdrawal, order of
00:41:14
operations. The critical details though
00:41:16
are that we want to use our early
00:41:18
retirement years for Roth conversions.
00:41:20
Usually these years tend to be lower
00:41:22
income and you'll typically be premd.
00:41:24
You might not have started social
00:41:25
security. Even those lowinccome years
00:41:28
can be used to intentionally and
00:41:29
artificially realize income in lower tax
00:41:32
brackets by converting dollars from our
00:41:34
tax deferred accounts into our tax-free
00:41:36
accounts accomplishing the very bracket
00:41:38
stuffing that we described before. Now
00:41:40
is that a guaranteed smart tax move?
00:41:43
Well, we each have to make a judgment
00:41:44
call. How do we feel about today's known
00:41:47
tax brackets versus tomorrow's uncertain
00:41:49
tax brackets? It's not always an easy
00:41:52
wager, but if we feel comfortable that
00:41:54
taxes will remain stable or increase,
00:41:56
then Roth conversions are a smart move.
00:41:58
The goal is to avoid these nasty future
00:42:00
tax scenarios, kind of like the unholy
00:42:03
interference of RMDs and Social
00:42:04
Security. In retirement, these extra
00:42:07
dollars of income that you realize don't
00:42:09
just create their own tax bill, but they
00:42:11
can also pull more of other earnings
00:42:13
into the taxable column. So the goal
00:42:15
here is to utilize the tax base that you
00:42:18
can smartly and to simply add more into
00:42:20
your most valuable compounders on the
00:42:22
balance sheet. So the next side room I
00:42:25
want to explore is when and how to break
00:42:26
our standard order of operations here.
00:42:28
And the first reason why is to fill gaps
00:42:30
with Roth withdrawals. So in general,
00:42:33
again, your plan should be measured in
00:42:35
decades. We want to think far ahead. And
00:42:38
after looking far into the future, you
00:42:39
might realize that you'll pay high
00:42:41
marginal taxes during your early
00:42:43
retirement years. And that might stick
00:42:45
out like a sore thumb compared to the
00:42:47
rest of your plan. So instead of paying
00:42:49
those high marginal taxes, you might
00:42:51
want to fill the gap with early Roth
00:42:53
withdrawals. So again, rather than
00:42:55
realizing capital gains at a 20% plus
00:42:58
38.8% 8% NIIT tax. Rather than
00:43:02
withdrawing from uh traditional tax
00:43:04
deferred accounts at 32% at the federal
00:43:06
level and 7% at the state level, maybe
00:43:09
you just make a simple Roth withdrawal
00:43:11
with no tax consequence. The same
00:43:14
strategy can manage Irma cost or ACA
00:43:17
subsidies or other income cliffs. And
00:43:19
when I say cliff, what I mean is that
00:43:21
most tax rules have a gentle slope to
00:43:24
them such that, you know, being $1 over
00:43:27
a certain limit doesn't punish you
00:43:29
immensely. But other tax rules have a
00:43:31
cliff where if you're $1 on the wrong
00:43:33
side of that cliff, you fall all the way
00:43:35
down. And usually tax cliffs are, in my
00:43:38
opinion, stupid where, you know, going
00:43:40
just $1 over can result in thousands of
00:43:43
dollars of extra cost or penalties. And
00:43:45
so if you need $500 more in a particular
00:43:48
year and withdrawing five that $500 from
00:43:51
a traditional IRA would push you into
00:43:53
the next Irma bracket into that cliff,
00:43:55
well stop. You can make a strategic
00:43:57
tax-free withdrawal from a Roth account
00:44:00
instead and avoid falling off that
00:44:02
cliff. I think another potential uh
00:44:04
reason to break some of the standard
00:44:07
order of operations is to look at the
00:44:09
cost basis in your taxable accounts and
00:44:11
realize strategic opportunities for tax
00:44:14
loss or tax gain harvesting. Again, we
00:44:16
already talked about tax loss harvesting
00:44:18
today. I won't go into that. Tax gain
00:44:20
harvesting is when we can sell an
00:44:22
appreciated investment and realize the
00:44:24
gains intentionally realizing those
00:44:26
gains while we're in a low tax bracket,
00:44:28
often resulting in little or no tax
00:44:30
owed. you know that opens up other
00:44:32
strategic doors in this auditorium and
00:44:34
it's interesting where different
00:44:36
strategies can take precedence in in
00:44:38
different years. So in some years tax
00:44:40
loss harvesting might open up an
00:44:42
opportunity for extra Roth conversions
00:44:44
in other years tax gain harvesting might
00:44:47
be smarter than pursuing those extra
00:44:50
Roth conversions. And if you're
00:44:51
interested I did write a pretty
00:44:53
comprehensive article about when and how
00:44:56
to choose Roth conversions over tax gain
00:44:58
harvesting and vice versa. We can link
00:45:00
that in the show notes. But taxable cost
00:45:02
basis is a pretty funny thing because
00:45:04
any sort of tax loss or tax gain or
00:45:07
capital gains minimization strategy
00:45:09
highly depends on your age. And not to
00:45:11
be crass here, but costbasis
00:45:13
optimization basically becomes a moot
00:45:15
point when you die. Your heirs are going
00:45:17
to inherit your taxable assets at a
00:45:19
stepped up basis. So if you're 60 years
00:45:21
old and healthy and considering the side
00:45:24
room of cost basis manipulation and
00:45:26
optimization, good for you. Go for it.
00:45:29
If you're 85 and you're in a nursing
00:45:30
home and you're taking a hard look in
00:45:32
the mirror, well, you might not want to
00:45:33
do any of this stuff in your taxable
00:45:35
account. On that note, another side room
00:45:37
we can explore is optimizing for post
00:45:40
death. So, it's worth asking yourself,
00:45:42
will I be leaving money to heirs after I
00:45:44
die? And if I am, how do I do that
00:45:46
optimally? Leaving money to your spouse
00:45:49
differs drastically from leaving money
00:45:51
to every any other person in your life.
00:45:53
Leaving money to charity has special
00:45:55
rules about it. Some accounts are much
00:45:57
better going to charity than others. And
00:45:59
if you're giving to charity while you're
00:46:00
alive, there are really smart and really
00:46:02
dumb ways that you should be doing that,
00:46:03
too. Leaving money to high earning heirs
00:46:06
should be fundamentally different than
00:46:08
leaving money to low earning heirs
00:46:10
because their tax situations can affect
00:46:12
the benefit or the annoyance of your
00:46:14
bequest to them. So, leaving money after
00:46:16
your death is another important side
00:46:18
room when it comes to optimal retirement
00:46:20
withdrawal strategies. Next, I want to
00:46:23
talk about the role of social security
00:46:24
timing. When designing someone's
00:46:26
retirement paycheck, we generally think
00:46:27
about fixed income sources first. We
00:46:30
want to understand your social security
00:46:31
income before determining your
00:46:33
withdrawal order of operations. But I
00:46:35
still wanted to touch on a few key
00:46:37
points today. Perhaps the biggest
00:46:38
question is when should I start taking
00:46:40
social security? So rather than
00:46:41
reinventing the wheel, I suggest you
00:46:43
read my article titled when should I
00:46:45
take social security? The key takeaways
00:46:47
are that social security can and in some
00:46:50
cases should be a pressure release valve
00:46:52
on your portfolio withdrawals, but
00:46:54
delaying social security can be a very
00:46:57
important door in your withdrawal
00:46:58
strategy. Namely, it increases
00:47:01
opportunities for Roth conversions and
00:47:03
provides longevity insurance. Social
00:47:05
Security taxability is another important
00:47:07
topic. It's worth knowing how other
00:47:09
retirement income may affect your Social
00:47:11
Security taxation. I recently wrote an
00:47:13
article about spousal benefits, survivor
00:47:15
benefits, and even divorce a benefits.
00:47:18
We'll link that in the show notes, but
00:47:19
it's really important to understand how
00:47:21
to optimize or maximize the different
00:47:23
spousal and survivor benefits that you
00:47:25
might receive. Okay, I've got a couple
00:47:27
more side doors. The first one is when
00:47:29
people ask, well, what about my HSA
00:47:30
account, my annuities, my pensions, etc.
00:47:33
So, HSA accounts, health savings
00:47:35
accounts are highly valuable. Again,
00:47:36
they're somewhat like Roth dollars. When
00:47:38
used for medical expenses, HSA dollars
00:47:40
are tax-free, most valuable compounders.
00:47:43
But what happens if your HSA is too big
00:47:45
such that you might never spend it? So,
00:47:47
first we should answer, what happens if
00:47:49
you die with HSA assets? If you leave
00:47:51
the HSA account to your spouse, the
00:47:53
account effectively becomes their HSA
00:47:55
with all the excellent tax-free benefits
00:47:57
for them. But if your spouse has passed
00:47:59
or you simply want to leave the HSA to
00:48:01
another person, then the entire account
00:48:03
becomes taxable income to that
00:48:05
beneficiary in the year of your death.
00:48:08
Ouch. So that is not an ideal outcome.
00:48:10
You've taken your most valuable
00:48:12
compounders and you've basically given
00:48:15
it away entirely as taxable income all
00:48:18
in one year. For that reason, it's worth
00:48:20
considering a second option. If your HSA
00:48:22
is too big and you might never spend it,
00:48:24
do you have another option? Yes.
00:48:26
Starting at age 65, you can essentially
00:48:29
utilize HSA dollars as if they were in a
00:48:31
traditional IRA. You can spend that
00:48:33
money on anything, not just on medical
00:48:35
expenses. Those withdrawals, though,
00:48:37
will be treated as taxable income, no
00:48:39
longer as tax-free income. So, there's a
00:48:41
trade-off there. The best choice in my
00:48:44
opinion would be find health related
00:48:46
reasons to to spend that money on or
00:48:49
even better when you're younger is to
00:48:51
start tracking your medical spending and
00:48:53
at some point in life start paying
00:48:55
yourself back out of that HSA account
00:48:57
which you can always do again if this is
00:48:59
your first time hearing this quick
00:49:00
little aside. You can save receipts. I
00:49:03
could have saved a receipt from 2012
00:49:06
and built my HSA over years and years
00:49:08
and years to wherever it is now. And
00:49:10
here in 2025, I can pull out that
00:49:12
receipt from 2012 for, you know, $111
00:49:16
for a checkup and I can reimburse myself
00:49:19
today using my HSA for a receipt that's
00:49:22
13 years old. Or another way of putting
00:49:24
it is as a retiree, right, you could
00:49:26
have tens of thousands, if not hundreds
00:49:28
of thousands of medical receipts over
00:49:31
the past 40 years of your life that you
00:49:33
could reimburse yourself for from your
00:49:35
HSA. And it is much better to do that
00:49:37
than to die with an HSA. leave it to a
00:49:40
non-spouse heir and make it taxable
00:49:43
income for that person. What about
00:49:44
annuities? So, all of us being equal, I
00:49:46
prefer not to purchase annuities in the
00:49:48
first place, almost all the time, even
00:49:51
the few good annuities like a SPIA,
00:49:54
which I'll talk about right now. Even
00:49:55
the good annuities to me don't have
00:49:57
enough investing merit to really
00:49:59
interest me. I think the math is pretty
00:50:00
clear. So, a SPIA, a single premium
00:50:03
immediate annuity is about as good as
00:50:05
annuities come, but I just the rate of
00:50:07
return math isn't attractive for me.
00:50:10
Again, it's a very simple annuity. A
00:50:11
SPIA, you trade in a chunk of your money
00:50:13
today for lifetime income. Again,
00:50:16
usually starting today. Usually, it's
00:50:17
immediate. Well, I shouldn't say usually
00:50:19
it is. The I stands for immediate. You
00:50:21
should think of this as longevity
00:50:22
insurance where you and other SPIA
00:50:24
customers are essentially pulling your
00:50:26
risk together. It's exactly like the
00:50:28
inverse of term life insurance. you and
00:50:31
a bunch of other people are pulling your
00:50:32
assets together. And with life
00:50:34
insurance, those who die early get a
00:50:36
payout and those who die late do not.
00:50:39
With an annuity, those who die early
00:50:42
basically don't get their money back and
00:50:44
those who die late get their money back
00:50:46
and a lot more. As I'm speaking this
00:50:48
into the microphone, a 65-year-old male
00:50:50
can purchase a SPIA with a 7% annual
00:50:54
payout. And note the payout is not the
00:50:56
same as a rate of return because the
00:50:58
annuity first pays you back your own
00:51:00
money. But if we use simple internal
00:51:03
rate of return IRRa math, we see what a
00:51:06
seven or in in this case, I think right
00:51:07
now the SP rates are 7 or 7 1/2%.
00:51:10
[clears throat] I'll round up. I'll say
00:51:11
7 1/2. A 7 1/2 payout rate means that if
00:51:15
our 65year-old male dies at age 80, he
00:51:18
would have received a a 1.5% rate of
00:51:21
return for 15 years. If he dies at age
00:51:24
85, he would have received a 4.2 annual
00:51:27
rate of return for 20 years. If he dies
00:51:30
at age 95, he would have received a 6.3%
00:51:34
rate of return for 30 years. And you
00:51:37
know, we can look it up. We know that
00:51:38
the average 65-year-old American male
00:51:40
will live to age 82 on average. So in
00:51:43
this annuity, if someone lives to age
00:51:45
82, would provide a 2.8% annual rate of
00:51:48
return for 17 years. To me, that math is
00:51:51
simply not good enough. But okay, let's
00:51:54
assume you already own some annuities
00:51:55
and you really like them. Much like
00:51:57
[clears throat] social security, your
00:51:58
annuity income can create a fixed floor
00:52:00
from which you build the rest of your
00:52:02
withdrawal strategy. Pension income
00:52:04
works the same way. It creates a floor.
00:52:06
Now, if you have control over collecting
00:52:08
your pension or annuity income, it's
00:52:10
definitely worth understanding if and
00:52:12
how delaying those income sources might
00:52:14
open other doors for you. Again, maybe
00:52:16
it's income doors, maybe it's tax doors.
00:52:19
again the off-ion Roth conversions, but
00:52:22
everybody's pension and a lot of
00:52:23
annuities work in unique ways. So, last
00:52:26
I want to talk about some common
00:52:27
mistakes when it comes to the retirement
00:52:30
withdrawal order of operations. Common
00:52:32
mistakes and how to avoid them. The
00:52:33
first common mistake is just not having
00:52:34
a plan. I know this is a copout, but
00:52:36
this exercise is about building a plan
00:52:38
to maximize your after tax wealth
00:52:40
throughout retirement. It's about
00:52:42
planning ahead. And perhaps there's no
00:52:44
greater mistake than deciding not to
00:52:46
plan. The one cliche is, you know,
00:52:48
failing to plan is planning to fail. And
00:52:50
it's very true here. The second common
00:52:52
mistake is assuming that every year will
00:52:54
be the same. Your spending will change.
00:52:56
Your portfolio will grow and
00:52:57
occasionally shrink. You'll hit age
00:52:59
milestones such as your social security
00:53:01
window, Medicare at age 65, RMDs at age
00:53:04
73 or 75 or beyond depending on
00:53:07
legislation. You cannot assume that
00:53:09
every year will be the same. Your
00:53:10
withdrawal strategy cannot be static.
00:53:13
The third common mistake is missing
00:53:14
annual windows. If you get to stuff your
00:53:16
brackets, if you neglect a Roth
00:53:18
conversion in a particular year, you
00:53:20
can't get that opportunity back. Once a
00:53:22
year has passed, so have your tax
00:53:24
opportunities for that year. So, don't
00:53:25
miss your windows. The fourth common
00:53:27
mistake is the ignorance of adverse
00:53:29
interactions. You know, oops, you didn't
00:53:31
realize that extra IRA withdrawal would
00:53:33
push you into the next Irma bracket. You
00:53:34
didn't know that Roth conversion would
00:53:36
make social security more taxable. One
00:53:38
of the challenges of a withdrawal
00:53:40
strategy is understanding how these
00:53:41
puzzle pieces all fit together. So don't
00:53:43
make the mistake of not knowing your
00:53:45
adverse interactions. The fifth common
00:53:47
mistake is spending the wrong assets too
00:53:49
soon. So again, Roth and HSA assets tend
00:53:52
to be your most valuable compounders.
00:53:55
Taxable assets should usually be spent
00:53:57
first, but not necessarily if a
00:53:59
near-term death might prevent large
00:54:01
capital gains realization. So the fifth
00:54:03
common mistake is spending the wrong
00:54:04
assets too soon. Your ideal retirement
00:54:07
withdrawal strategy will be a function
00:54:09
of you and your unique circumstances.
00:54:11
But the framework provided here today in
00:54:13
this episode should give you an
00:54:14
excellent starting point going forward.
00:54:16
I mean, think about it. You spent
00:54:18
decades of time saving and accumulating
00:54:20
and investing. And getting this step of
00:54:22
retirement planning of of withdrawal
00:54:24
optimization is just as important as
00:54:27
those decades of time. A little math and
00:54:29
a little planning can add so much value.
00:54:31
Isaac, thank you for the awesome
00:54:33
question. And listeners, thank you for
00:54:34
all the awesome questions. I hope you
00:54:36
keep them coming. And now that we're
00:54:37
doing monthly AMA episodes, I should be
00:54:39
able to tackle more questions more
00:54:41
often. So, thanks for all the emails.
00:54:42
You can send them to
00:54:45
and we'll talk to you next episode.
00:54:46
Thanks for tuning in to this episode of
00:54:48
Personal Finance for long-term
00:54:50
investors. If you have a question for
00:54:52
Jesse to answer on a future episode,
00:54:54
send him an email over at his blog, The
00:54:57
Best Interest. His email address is
00:55:01
Again, that's jessevestinterest.blog.
00:55:05
Did you enjoy the show? Subscribe, rate,
00:55:07
and review the podcast wherever you
00:55:09
listen. This helps others find the show
00:55:11
and invest in knowledge themselves, and
00:55:14
we really appreciate it. [music] We'll
00:55:15
catch you on the next episode of
00:55:17
Personal Finance for Long-Term
00:55:19
Investors. Personal Finance for
00:55:21
Long-Term Investors is a personal
00:55:23
podcast meant for education and
00:55:25
entertainment. It should not be taken as
00:55:27
financial advice and it's not
00:55:28
prescriptive of your financial
00:55:30
situation.

Podspun Insights

In this episode of Personal Finance for Long-Term Investors, Jesse Kramer dives into the intricacies of personal finance through an engaging Ask Me Anything format. Kicking off with a delightful review from a listener, Jesse sets the tone for an informative session filled with practical insights. The first question from Nikki sparks a deep exploration of direct indexing versus traditional index funds, where Jesse balances optimism with caution, dissecting the potential benefits and pitfalls of this investment strategy. He emphasizes the importance of tax loss harvesting and the nuances of managing capital gains, making complex concepts accessible to everyday investors.

As the episode unfolds, Jesse tackles Kevin's query about navigating financial planning when one spouse retires significantly earlier than the other. He highlights the emotional and practical implications of such a scenario, offering sound advice on tax filing strategies and the psychological impacts of retirement timing. The discussion flows seamlessly into Isaac's request for guidance on deaccumulation strategies in retirement, where Jesse provides a wealth of knowledge on withdrawal order and the importance of flexibility in spending plans.

With a blend of humor and expertise, Jesse empowers listeners to take charge of their financial futures, reminding them that planning is key to maximizing their wealth in retirement. This episode is a treasure trove of insights, making personal finance feel less daunting and more like an exciting journey.

Badges

This episode stands out for the following:

  • 90
    Best overall
  • 85
    Most satisfying
  • 85
    Best concept / idea
  • 80
    Most inspiring

Episode Highlights

  • The Power of Knowledge
    Investing in knowledge is the best investment you can make. Benjamin Franklin's wisdom rings true today.
    “An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.”
    @ 00m 04s
    November 12, 2025
  • Listener Praise
    Ally from Sacramento praises the podcast for its balance of fun and detailed information.
    “What a treasure this podcast is.”
    @ 01m 14s
    November 12, 2025
  • Tax Loss Harvesting Explained
    Learn how to use tax loss harvesting to offset gains and save on taxes effectively.
    “You might as well intentionally realize losses to offset the mammoth gains.”
    @ 08m 17s
    November 12, 2025
  • Navigating Retirement Tax Strategies
    Exploring the benefits of filing taxes jointly versus separately for retirees.
    “I think there are rarely any cases where married filing separately makes sense.”
    @ 23m 40s
    November 12, 2025
  • Dynamic Retirement Withdrawals
    Discussing the importance of adjusting withdrawals based on market performance.
    “You can adjust your withdrawals over time such that when times are good...”
    @ 27m 42s
    November 12, 2025
  • Tax-Free Accounts: The Holy Grail
    Tax-free accounts like Roth and HSA are essential for retirement planning, allowing tax-free withdrawals.
    “Tax-free accounts are the holy grail of retirement planning.”
    @ 38m 22s
    November 12, 2025
  • Roth Withdrawals: Timing Matters
    Roth dollars should typically be the last to withdraw, preserving their tax-free growth.
    “Roth dollars should generally be the last dollars you withdraw.”
    @ 40m 18s
    November 12, 2025
  • Maximizing HSA Benefits
    Utilize HSA dollars wisely; reimburse yourself for medical expenses to avoid tax penalties.
    “You can save receipts and reimburse yourself from your HSA for years.”
    @ 49m 06s
    November 12, 2025
  • Common Retirement Mistakes
    Learn about the common mistakes in retirement withdrawal strategies and how to avoid them.
    “The first common mistake is just not having a plan.”
    @ 52m 33s
    November 12, 2025
  • The Importance of Planning
    Planning ahead is crucial for maximizing your after-tax wealth throughout retirement.
    “Failing to plan is planning to fail.”
    @ 52m 48s
    November 12, 2025
  • Understanding Withdrawal Strategies
    Your withdrawal strategy should adapt to changing circumstances and not be static.
    “Your withdrawal strategy cannot be static.”
    @ 53m 10s
    November 12, 2025
  • Maximizing Tax Opportunities
    Don't miss your annual windows for tax opportunities; they can't be regained once lost.
    “So, don't miss your windows.”
    @ 53m 25s
    November 12, 2025

Episode Quotes

Key Moments

  • Listener Review01:14
  • Direct Indexing10:09
  • Tax Filing Strategies17:46
  • Tax-Free Accounts38:22
  • Roth Withdrawals40:18
  • HSA Strategies49:06
  • Planning Ahead52:42
  • Withdrawal Strategy53:10

Words per Minute Over Time

Vibes Breakdown