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Reset Your Portfolio Expectations, Before It's Too Late | Peter Lazaroff - E112

July 23, 2025 / 54:45

This episode of Personal Finance for Long-Term Investors covers personal finance strategies, investment volatility, and the importance of setting realistic expectations with guest Peter Lazerof, chief investment officer at Plan Corp. Jesse Kramer hosts the discussion, focusing on how to navigate market fluctuations and maintain a long-term investment perspective.

Jesse introduces the episode by emphasizing the significance of understanding personal finance and investing. He reviews a three-star listener feedback, highlighting the importance of clear communication without unnecessary distractions. Jesse also shares his thoughts on market volatility and the necessity of preparing for downturns.

Peter Lazerof joins the conversation, discussing the current state of the market in 2025 and the impact of tariffs and political changes on investments. He emphasizes that while short-term market fluctuations can be concerning, long-term investors should focus on earnings and the fundamentals of the businesses they invest in.

The discussion touches on the human aspect of investing, where Peter explains that emotional reactions to market changes can lead to poor decision-making. He suggests that investors should document their reasoning for any changes in their portfolio to maintain clarity in the future.

Finally, Peter shares insights on international versus domestic investments, advocating for a diversified portfolio while cautioning against making impulsive changes based on recent performance. He encourages listeners to stick to their long-term investment strategies and to understand the importance of managing their balance sheets during economic fluctuations.

TL;DR

Jesse Kramer and Peter Lazerof discuss investment strategies, market volatility, and the importance of maintaining a long-term perspective in finance.

Video

00:00:00
Welcome to personal finance for
00:00:02
long-term investors, where we believe
00:00:04
Benjamin Franklin's advice that an
00:00:06
investment in knowledge pays the best
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interest both in finances and in your
00:00:10
life. Every episode teaches you personal
00:00:13
finance and long-term investing in
00:00:15
simple terms. Now, here's your host,
00:00:18
Jesse Kramer. Hello and welcome to
00:00:20
episode 112 of Personal Finance for
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Long-Term Investors. My name is Jesse
00:00:24
Kramer. By day, I work for a fiduciary
00:00:26
wealth management firm helping clients
00:00:27
all over the country. For more details,
00:00:29
you can go to bestinterest.blog/work
00:00:32
and the link is in the show notes. And
00:00:33
by night, I write a blog called the best
00:00:35
interest. And I podcast here on personal
00:00:37
finance for long-term investors. I help
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busy professionals and retirees avoid
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costly mistakes and grow their wealth.
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And I do so by simplifying complex ideas
00:00:45
about personal finance from investing to
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taxes to retirement and beyond. And
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today I'm really excited because Peter
00:00:52
Lazerof is back and will be joining me.
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Peter is the chief investment officer at
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Plan Corp and he's the host of the
00:00:58
long-term investor podcast. Peter is
00:01:01
routinely recognized for simplifying
00:01:02
complex investing and planning issues
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for clients and for listeners. He's been
00:01:06
repeatedly named a top 100 US financial
00:01:09
adviser by Investopedia. He's always a
00:01:11
great resource for teaching people about
00:01:13
investing. And you'll see that today
00:01:14
simply through the frameworks and
00:01:16
explanation that he provides. Peter
00:01:18
first joined me back on episode 77 of
00:01:20
this podcast. Go ahead and listen to
00:01:22
that one. And now he's back for round
00:01:23
two today. As usual, before Peter joins
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us, I want to do a quick review of the
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week. A little bit of drama because this
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is a three-star review, not a five-star
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review. But listen, critical feedback is
00:01:33
awesome. So, please bring on the
00:01:35
feedback. And if I don't deserve five
00:01:36
stars, that's okay. There's a chance
00:01:38
that MJV92314
00:01:41
might have fat fingered the wrong number
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of stars, or he or she might just be a
00:01:45
good critic. So, the three-star review,
00:01:48
clear, straightforward personal finance
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info. Thank you, Jesse, for your
00:01:51
excellent podcast. I just discovered it
00:01:53
and I've listened to about five
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episodes. I appreciate that you don't
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have chitchat and superfluous dialogue
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about your dog, your breakfast, or
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anything that's not related to your
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topic. You have no fake or forced
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laughter during dialogue with your
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guests.
00:02:06
That's a good one. You have no unrelated
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banter with your guests. Your excellent
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speaking skills. Thank you for not
00:02:11
excessively saying like, sort of, or
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kind of. I will say now I'm a little
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self-conscious about that. And you keep
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it clean. Cursing adds nothing to an
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informative topic. Iinging agree with
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you. Your topics are timely,
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informative, and helpful. I appreciate
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you keeping the conversation focused.
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Thank you. Well, you're very welcome,
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MJV. And listen, if your stars are
00:02:30
precious to you, and you only save your
00:02:32
five-star reviews for that one ina
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million podcast, no worries. Your
00:02:35
written review was very kind. I'm
00:02:37
happily going to send you a super soft
00:02:38
t-shirt. Drop me an email to
00:02:40
jessebinterest.blog
00:02:42
and I will get you hooked up with that
00:02:43
t-shirt. That mother t-shirt. And
00:02:46
listeners, if you have questions I can
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answer, especially for a future AMA
00:02:49
episode and ask me anything episode,
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send those questions to Jesse at
00:02:52
bestinterest.blog. Before Peter joins
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us, I want to read a couple fun articles
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to you that are going to be somewhat
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related to what Peter and I talked
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about. The first one I wrote recently in
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March, March of 2025, and it's called,
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"Are you not entertained?" Do you know
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that scene in Gladiator where Russell
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Crow's character Maximus, he yells to
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the crowd? He says,
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>> "Are you not entertained?" I'm more
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interested in Maximus's next line,
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though, cuz he asks, "Is this not why
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you were here?" If you don't remember
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the movie, maybe you haven't seen it.
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Gladiator. Maximus of Russell Crowe.
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It's one of his initial forays when he
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gets thrown into the arena and he has to
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battle as a gladiator for the first
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time. And the audience certainly came
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there to see some violence and some
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death. And specifically, the plan was
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for a bunch of local gladiators, heavily
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armored, fully armed, to kill off some
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foreign slaves, including Maximus. But
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because Maximus is the protagonist andor
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because he's a highly trained Roman
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legionnaire, he turns the tables on the
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local gladiators, he kills all of them
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single-handedly. And the crowd is really
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caught off guard cuz they did not come
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to see that kind of a turnaround. And
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they go silent and that cues up the
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immortal lines from Maximus, "Are you
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not entertained? Is this not why you are
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here?" Maximus also throws his sword at
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the box seats, which is a real power
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move. But the point is, the audience
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came to see violence and death. They
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just hadn't expected it could be
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delivered in quite that way. And that
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frustrates Maximus. Did they expect
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every slave just to get slaughtered
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without fighting back? What terrible
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expectations. Does a chef expect a
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Michelin star without some burns or some
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knife slips? No. Does a traveler expect
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every eye-opening experience without a
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single delayed flight? No. And does the
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long-term investor expect their
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portfolio to compound for decades
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without times like the tariff tantrum
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that we had here in 2025? I say no. I
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get it though. Loss aversion is real. It
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impacts all of us. It's natural to feel
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anxious when markets react to world
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events, to wars, to politics, to
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tariffs. But it's crucial to recognize
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that those external shocks have always
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been part of investing history. We've
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had world wars and pandemics and oil
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crises and banking explosions, inflation
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run a muck, etc., etc. And yet, here we
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are. The nature of long-term investing
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is one of volatility, of ups and downs.
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And the ups are easy. They are great.
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The downs if we're not careful can be
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really challenging and you might have
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felt that challenge here in 2025. That
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volatility though that is a feature not
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a bug. Again that is a feature not a
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bug. We want to see volatility. We want
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risk to be involved in our investing at
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least in some part of our investing
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endeavor because without that risk there
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is no compensatory reward. There's no
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point to investing in the first place
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without risk. Is that not why you are
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here Maximus? Right. having a little bit
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of risk. That is why we are here. Yet
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often people get stressed or scared or
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they make drastic changes in their
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portfolio when faced with volatility.
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Such a reaction is this glaring red
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light to me that suggests that the
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investor's expectations were not
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adequately set. If your monkey brain is
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screaming, get off this roller coaster
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when you have a little bit of
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volatility, we need to ask, why did you
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get on that roller coaster in the first
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place? Were you expecting a smooth ride?
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Such investments do exist perfectly
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smooth, but there's no real upside to
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them. There's no real reward. It's hard
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to set new investing expectations in the
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middle of market chaos. Just as teaching
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fire safety while the smoke alarm is
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going off, that's pretty hard, too.
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Instead, we run real fire drills during
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the safe times to ingrain the
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appropriate reactions in everybody. We
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don't run fire drills in the middle of a
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fire. We run them during the safe times
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to ingrain the appropriate reaction and
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approach. And similarly, we should be
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setting investing expectations during
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the calm or positive market times to
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ingrain how we should be reacting. Now,
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I know this episode's going to come out
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in July and right now I'm speaking to
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you in about mid June, but we've fully
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recovered from the volatility of April.
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So, if April scared you, I hope you
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didn't try to reset things in the middle
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of the fire drill of April. But now that
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things have gotten back to a calm or
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even a positive market, now might be the
00:07:02
time to think about how you reacted. And
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if you reacted in a pretty negative way,
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now that it's calm, you might want to
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run a fire drill now and determine if
00:07:11
you need to reset your investing
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expectations. You don't have that luxury
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in the middle of a fire drill. If the
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next time you find yourself in a fire
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drill and and one of the the second
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article I I read today will be about
00:07:22
that, but the next time you find
00:07:23
yourself in the middle of a fire, I
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should say, in the middle of volatility,
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in the middle of panic, a few things
00:07:29
that I called back in April, I called
00:07:31
them the midfire fire drill. A few
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reminders, if you will. The first one,
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markets don't go up in a straight line.
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They never have, and they never will.
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Volatility is the price of admission for
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long-term returns. If you're feeling
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uneasy, you need to remind yourself this
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is why investors get rewarded over time
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because they endure these kinds of ups
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and downs. This is why you're here and
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you must endure, too. The second
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reminder, this is why we diversify.
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Stocks aren't enough. Bonds play a role.
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International stocks are crushing it
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this year. Real estate alternatives can
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have a place in your portfolio, too. The
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third reminder, you need to zoom out.
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Short-term swings can feel dramatic, but
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the market has consistently trended
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upward over decades. If you pull up a
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multi-deade chart of the S&P 500, the
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former dips, the former crashes, the
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former outright panics now seem kind of
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small in comparison. Every single one of
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them felt scary at the time. Yet over
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time, the market has recovered and moved
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higher. The fourth reminder, focus on
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what you can control. You can control
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your time horizon. You can control your
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behavior. The quote that I like, it's
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more of a philosophical quote, is you
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can't control the waves, but you can
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learn to swim. and we all need to learn
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how to swim. And the fifth reminder,
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remember your financial plan. Why did
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you invest in the first place? What do
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you own and why do you own it? A
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well-thoughtout investment plan accounts
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for volatility before it happens. If you
00:08:53
don't have a plan, now is a great time
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to create one. Ideally, one that helps
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you stick with it when things feel
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uncertain. The world is a volatile
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place, and when things get volatile out
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there, and by there, I mean like outside
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the markets in the real world, when
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things get volatile out there, I too
00:09:06
grow concerned. But when the market gets
00:09:08
topsyturvy, I say to my inner maximus,
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yes, this is why I am here. And the
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second thing I want to read to you
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today, listeners, inspired by a cool
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Jason Zwag Wall Street Journal article
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from a few years ago. This is the
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beginning of 2022 where like the worst
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of kind of the co not only the co market
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panic, but a lot of the worst of the co
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pandemic was over with. But 2022 was
00:09:31
also the start of this interest rate
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shock and and markets were kind of doing
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some wild things starting at the
00:09:36
beginning of 2022. And so inspired by
00:09:38
Jason Zwig, I wrote myself a letter for
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when my portfolio crashes. And the
00:09:43
article I called it break glass in case
00:09:45
of market crash. And literally it's a
00:09:48
letter that I wrote to myself. Jesse,
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you knew what you were getting into. You
00:09:52
knew this could happen. And it's okay
00:09:54
that it did happen. Your goals are big
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and your timeline is long. That's why
00:09:58
you signed up for this risk-heavy
00:10:00
portfolio. 60% of your assets are in the
00:10:02
stock market and you knew the stock
00:10:04
market could get cut in half. It's
00:10:05
dropped like that before and surely it
00:10:07
will again. You knew the recent market
00:10:09
felt pretty frothy, especially after the
00:10:12
COVID related stimulus. But you also
00:10:14
knew that selling your stock position
00:10:15
would have been short-sighted. Rather
00:10:17
than sell, you've been rebalancing every
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6 months. You've been selling overpriced
00:10:21
assets and buying underpriced assets.
00:10:23
That's the smart thing to do. You knew
00:10:25
that bonds were in a tough place to park
00:10:27
your money. Yields were pretty low.
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That's why your allocation varied
00:10:30
between 10% and 15% in bonds, but you
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also knew that all asset classes eb and
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flow over years and decades, just like a
00:10:38
good quilt chart would show us. Your
00:10:39
bonds aren't there to make you rich.
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They provided some diversification and a
00:10:43
pool from which you can rebalance. You
00:10:45
knew cryptocurrency could be a giant
00:10:47
bubble, but you also convinced yourself
00:10:48
that blockchain technology might have
00:10:50
something to it. You balanced these
00:10:52
opposing views by following John Bogle's
00:10:54
famous advice to limit your sandbox, to
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limit your play money to less than 5% of
00:10:59
your portfolio. You chose a percentage
00:11:01
even lower than that. And you split that
00:11:03
tiny fraction between Bitcoin and
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Ethereum, which okay, at the time were
00:11:07
considered the two powerhouse
00:11:09
cryptocurrencies. I guess the idea is if
00:11:11
you're going to drink moonshine, you
00:11:12
should drink the good stuff, but you
00:11:13
should definitely take a small sip. And
00:11:15
quick aside, listeners, if you're paying
00:11:17
attention at home and adding up my
00:11:18
portfolio percentages, you'll realize
00:11:20
I'm not even at 80% yet. The difference
00:11:23
is because when I wrote this article,
00:11:25
rather than only focusing on my
00:11:27
portfolio, I also added in the value of
00:11:29
our primary home as part of our net
00:11:31
worth, and that's the other 20 to 25%.
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Okay, back to the letter. You designed
00:11:37
this portfolio with intention, and this
00:11:38
outcome, a crash, was always one
00:11:41
potential outcome of that design. And so
00:11:43
the market crashed and you feel bad.
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What you shouldn't do is suffer the
00:11:47
malady of resultsoriented thinking.
00:11:50
Saying told you so isn't justified here.
00:11:53
You did your research. You followed
00:11:55
mostly best practices. Maybe
00:11:56
cryptocurrency is the outlier there. And
00:11:58
you executed a plan that you believed
00:12:00
in. You made a smart bet with good odds
00:12:02
and the dice haven't rolled in your
00:12:04
favor recently. Does that mean it was a
00:12:06
dumb bet? No, it doesn't. As Annie Duke
00:12:08
writes in the book, Thinking and Bets,
00:12:10
thinking in bets starts with recognizing
00:12:12
that there are exactly two things that
00:12:14
determine how our lives turn out. The
00:12:16
quality of our decisions and luck.
00:12:18
Learning to recognize the difference
00:12:19
between the two is what thinking in bets
00:12:21
is all about. In your case, Jesse, the
00:12:24
right choice led to a bad outcome. The
00:12:26
next part is painful. You've got to make
00:12:29
the right choice again, even knowing it
00:12:31
didn't work out perfectly the first
00:12:33
time. That right next choice is to
00:12:36
continue learning, to implement lessons
00:12:38
learned, to continue rebalancing your
00:12:39
portfolio, and most likely to continue
00:12:42
holding the same asset classes as
00:12:44
before. The one exception would be if
00:12:46
crypto turns out to be a complete fraud,
00:12:48
you should probably just stick to more
00:12:49
traditional asset classes. In other
00:12:51
words, stick to your guns with a small
00:12:54
aotment for adjustment. Is that
00:12:56
insanity? Are you suffering that trope
00:12:58
of insanity is repeating the same
00:13:00
actions while hoping for a different
00:13:01
outcome? I say no. When the poker player
00:13:04
goes allin with a pair of aces, we don't
00:13:06
scold her for losing on an unlucky flop.
00:13:09
We commend her for making the right
00:13:11
decision with the information she had.
00:13:13
We recognize the role of bad luck in
00:13:15
that outcome. This untimely market crash
00:13:18
is the same. It sucks. It doesn't feel
00:13:19
great. But go back and reread Bogle,
00:13:22
reread Burton Malke, reread your
00:13:24
foundational books. You played your hand
00:13:26
well. This bad luck was always a
00:13:29
potential outcome. As insane as it
00:13:31
sounds, you've got to stay the course.
00:13:33
Good luck, dude. I'm pulling for you,
00:13:35
obviously. And that's my letter. And if
00:13:37
you haven't written a letter to yourself
00:13:39
in case of market crash, if you haven't
00:13:41
explained to yourself why you own what
00:13:43
you own, and if you haven't explained to
00:13:45
yourself what your range of potential
00:13:47
outcomes could be, both in the short
00:13:49
term, the midterm, and the long term,
00:13:51
that might be a pretty interesting
00:13:52
exercise for you to do. Here's a quick
00:13:55
ad, and then we'll get back to the show.
00:13:56
I love getting your questions and some
00:13:58
of you ask me questions about the wealth
00:14:00
management firm I work for in Rochester,
00:14:02
New York. Others ask about the Best
00:14:03
Interest blog and this podcast, Personal
00:14:05
Finance for Long-Term Investors, which
00:14:06
operate without advertising, without
00:14:08
pushy sales, and with no payw walls. How
00:14:10
can the blog and podcast stay afloat
00:14:12
without me dumping my own money into it?
00:14:14
Well, to answer both those questions, I
00:14:15
want to point you to episode 78 of
00:14:17
Personal Finance for Long-Term
00:14:19
Investors. I intentionally recorded
00:14:20
episode 78 to shine light on those
00:14:22
topics and inform you how you are
00:14:24
actually helping and can continue
00:14:25
helping these projects carry forward. So
00:14:28
if you've ever been curious about the
00:14:29
business of my blog and podcast or if
00:14:31
you're curious about my day job in
00:14:32
wealth management, please check out
00:14:34
episode 78 and let me know what you
00:14:36
think. And now without further ado, I
00:14:38
want to welcome Peter Lazro on to the
00:14:40
podcast. Again, Peter is the chief
00:14:41
investment officer at Plan Corp, which
00:14:43
is a independent registered investment
00:14:45
adviser out of uh St. Louis and he's
00:14:48
just got a great knack for simplifying
00:14:49
the complex investing and financial
00:14:51
planning issues. I mean, similar to
00:14:52
stuff that I talk about. I really look
00:14:53
at Peter as a as as a great peer,
00:14:55
probably a peer who's, you know, 10
00:14:57
years ahead of me career-wise and
00:14:58
someone I I aspire to cuz I think what
00:15:00
he's doing is awesome. Just a great
00:15:02
resource for teaching people about
00:15:03
investing. And I think you'll see that
00:15:05
today through the the frameworks and the
00:15:06
explanations he provides. So again, here
00:15:09
is Peter Lazeroth.
00:15:15
Peter, you know, it's messy out there,
00:15:17
man. Uh, we've had an interesting year
00:15:19
so far. We're recording in mid June.
00:15:21
This will probably publish in mid July.
00:15:24
We started on some highs. Boom. April
00:15:27
hit. We had some lows. Now, maybe we're
00:15:29
we're back towards highs. But still, uh,
00:15:31
you know, one thing I'm struck with is
00:15:33
there's this big difference between
00:15:34
short-term signals and long-term
00:15:36
direction when it comes to investing.
00:15:39
I'd love to maybe start with just how
00:15:40
have you felt and what are some of your
00:15:42
thoughts about how 2025 has been so far?
00:15:44
>> Well, first of all, Jesse, thanks for
00:15:46
having me on the show. And actually,
00:15:48
since I know you don't use video, but I
00:15:50
can see in the background this giant box
00:15:52
behind me. You know how 2025 is going?
00:15:54
It's going great cuz I'm cleaning out
00:15:56
old stuff. And there's actually a box of
00:15:58
books of making money simple. So, my
00:16:00
first book came out in 2019, making
00:16:02
money simple. And I was just telling you
00:16:04
before the show that I'm putting the
00:16:06
finishing touches on my next book which
00:16:08
is called The Perfect Portfolio. But
00:16:10
when I was on last year, your audience
00:16:12
reached out. They were fantastic. And so
00:16:13
what I am going to do is if your
00:16:14
audience goes to peter
00:16:16
lazar.com/freebook.
00:16:20
I'm pausing. I think it's free book, not
00:16:21
book. We'll put a link in the show
00:16:23
notes. I'm going to send you one of
00:16:24
those books that's sitting behind me.
00:16:25
There's a box of them. I think there's
00:16:26
like 32 per box. Somebody pulled them
00:16:28
up. The postage date on them is
00:16:30
September of 2020. So they've been
00:16:32
sitting in storage. Nobody knows where
00:16:33
they came from. I didn't tell you that I
00:16:36
was going to self-promote and drop that,
00:16:37
but now that I see it in my camera view,
00:16:39
you ask, "How is 2025 going?" Man, think
00:16:42
about being a long-term investor is that
00:16:44
when you go into a year, clients are
00:16:47
always talking about a few things. And
00:16:50
tariffs were certainly on people's mind.
00:16:52
you know, the election results have just
00:16:54
come in and I would say in any
00:16:56
presidential election, my experience has
00:16:59
been that half of people are very upset
00:17:02
and half of people are happy. And I
00:17:05
think a lot of people who were upset
00:17:06
were saying the market is going to
00:17:08
crash. I don't like some of the policies
00:17:10
and things that are being said on the
00:17:11
campaign trail. And lo and behold, I
00:17:14
mean, I wouldn't call a 20% drop a
00:17:16
crash, but we had a near 20% pullback.
00:17:19
And you have people who feel validated.
00:17:21
And I can't tell you how many times in
00:17:23
my career I've put up slides showing
00:17:26
that who is president does not impact
00:17:28
the stock market or a political party
00:17:30
does not impact the stock market. So one
00:17:32
frustrating part about 2025 is me now
00:17:35
realizing in about 3 years when we have
00:17:37
our next election that when I put up
00:17:39
those charts people are going to say
00:17:40
well what about the tariffs that that
00:17:42
Trump put out there that did happen. I
00:17:44
suppose that validated but as you
00:17:46
mentioned we're already back. It's a
00:17:48
great reminder that the market is going
00:17:52
to fall 10% 20% with a pretty
00:17:55
surprisingly large frequency and the
00:17:58
story is always going to be different.
00:18:01
But the most important thing that I was
00:18:03
talking to clients about and talking to
00:18:04
employees and friends and family is
00:18:07
earnings. And like yes, in the case of
00:18:09
tariffs, which by the way, by the time
00:18:11
that this airs, that 90-day pause will
00:18:14
be close to expiring. And so there'll
00:18:16
probably be more headlines related to
00:18:18
it.
00:18:19
>> Here's the thing is no matter what the
00:18:20
tariffs are, do you think McDonald's is
00:18:22
going to try to sell us cheeseburgers or
00:18:24
Coca-Cola is going to try to sell us
00:18:26
Coke or that Ford's going to try to sell
00:18:28
us cars? No. They're going to try to
00:18:30
sell as much of their product no matter
00:18:32
what. Will there be more obstacles? Have
00:18:35
the rules to the game changed? It's like
00:18:37
if we got out a board of monopoly and
00:18:39
we've been playing by the same rules
00:18:41
that monopoly has always existed with
00:18:44
and suddenly we change some rules, it's
00:18:45
going to change your strategy a little
00:18:47
bit. But when you invest in the stock
00:18:48
market, you are betting that CEOs like
00:18:51
money and that shareholders will demand
00:18:53
that CEOs maximize their value. So 2025
00:18:56
has been like a full long-term market
00:18:59
lesson all wrapped up into six months.
00:19:02
It'll be really interesting to see what
00:19:03
goes on with tariffs, what goes on with
00:19:05
the spending bill. Yeah. I mean, that
00:19:08
was a really long answer to your
00:19:09
question. So, let me let me take a
00:19:10
breath here. What what are you thinking?
00:19:12
>> It's a good answer. And in fact, I want
00:19:14
to play devil's advocate here on behalf
00:19:15
of the listeners, but also Pete, I mean
00:19:18
on behalf of client conversations that
00:19:20
you and I both have. Maybe someone's
00:19:22
listening right now and go, okay, we
00:19:23
don't know what'll happen over the next
00:19:25
month between when we're recording and
00:19:27
publishing, but let's say the S&P stays
00:19:29
about where it is right now, which is
00:19:31
close to all-time highs. Essentially, we
00:19:33
we haven't really lost any ground on the
00:19:35
year. But imagine someone says, "I hear
00:19:38
what you're saying, Peter. McDonald's
00:19:40
will keep on trying to sell
00:19:41
cheeseburgers, but we saw something this
00:19:43
year where one politician was able to
00:19:47
push some policy forward and then pull
00:19:49
it back and then kind of push it forward
00:19:51
and pull it back and just whipssaw the
00:19:53
stock market and that has fundamentally
00:19:55
shaken my faith in long-term investing.
00:20:00
Is there any merit to that argument or
00:20:01
just what's your response there?
00:20:03
>> I think there's merit to that feeling.
00:20:06
The feeling is valid. feeling concerned,
00:20:09
feeling worried, feeling uncertain, all
00:20:11
valid, all normal. Nothing wrong with
00:20:15
that. When you take a step back and you
00:20:17
think about why we invest in the first
00:20:19
place, I always go back to really the
00:20:21
first principle level is we invest
00:20:24
because we're trying to grow our savings
00:20:26
faster than the rate of inflation
00:20:28
without taking undue risk. And so like
00:20:31
what is undue risk? Well, yes, there is
00:20:34
risk in that that concern and that
00:20:37
feeling that one individual specifically
00:20:40
is exerting a lot of influence over the
00:20:42
short-term fluctuations of the market.
00:20:44
There is a risk that the market will
00:20:47
fall 10% roughly on average every 12
00:20:50
months because that's what it's done
00:20:51
historically and fall 20% every 3 to
00:20:54
four years on average because that's
00:20:55
historically what it's done and fall 30%
00:20:58
or more about once a decade on average
00:21:00
because again that's historically what
00:21:02
it's done. I generally think that when
00:21:04
I'm investing in stocks I'm going to
00:21:06
assume that we're going to have
00:21:08
downturns with a similar magnitude and
00:21:11
frequency as we have in the past. And so
00:21:13
to me, that's not an undue risk. That is
00:21:16
risk. And it is okay to be uncomfortable
00:21:19
with risk. It's okay to be even more
00:21:21
than uncomfortable to be afraid. I think
00:21:23
that's why some people hire an adviser.
00:21:26
I feel like I operate with robotlike
00:21:29
execution with clients. But even on
00:21:31
myself, I don't. And let me give you an
00:21:32
example, Jesse. So during this downturn,
00:21:36
>> I don't have a lot of cash. I don't keep
00:21:38
a ton of cash on hand. You know, my
00:21:39
biggest asset is the firm that I'm a
00:21:41
part owner of, Plan Corp.
00:21:43
>> I fund all my retirement accounts. I
00:21:45
fund my health savings account. And so,
00:21:47
the best thing I could come up with was
00:21:49
directing my entire paycheck to my 401k.
00:21:53
So, basically like speed funding my 401k
00:21:55
while the market was down. And
00:21:57
typically, I wait to fund my HSA until
00:22:00
December, like when I get my year-end
00:22:01
bonus and I have a little bit more cash.
00:22:03
But basically, I just took all my
00:22:04
paychecks and just put them right into
00:22:05
the market. When you do it in a 401k, as
00:22:08
your listeners and you and everybody
00:22:09
probably knows, it goes right into the
00:22:11
market. My HSA had to make a couple
00:22:13
stops. And Jesse, it's we're recording
00:22:16
this on June 10th. The cash in my HSA is
00:22:19
still not invested. I am human like all
00:22:22
of the rest of you. And all of the
00:22:25
systems that I have in place for myself
00:22:26
that generally mean that money is
00:22:28
getting invested right away don't apply
00:22:31
to my HSA. in part because of like the
00:22:33
way the account's set up and in part
00:22:35
because it requires me to click a
00:22:36
button. Now, is it because I'm afraid?
00:22:39
No. If if I'm being perfectly honest, I
00:22:41
saw a little spike and in my head I
00:22:43
said, "Well, surely, you know, most bare
00:22:46
markets don't resolve themselves this
00:22:47
quickly and here it didn't." Now, what
00:22:50
am I waiting for this? I've not publicly
00:22:52
shared this story. I guess by December
00:22:54
when I normally would have made the
00:22:55
contribution, I will definitely do it by
00:22:56
then. Maybe I'll do it right when we get
00:22:58
off the call. In fact, mark my words,
00:23:01
I'm going to do it right when we get off
00:23:03
the call. My 2025 investment will get
00:23:05
invested. So, by the time you were
00:23:07
listening to this, dear listener in the
00:23:09
audience, um it will be done. But my
00:23:11
point kind of going all the way back to
00:23:13
your concern was I think it's valid. It
00:23:15
is very human. We all feel it. And when
00:23:17
people like you and I are telling you
00:23:19
what's best, you know, what we have set
00:23:21
up for both your clients, what we have
00:23:23
set up for my clients is to do it
00:23:26
without emotion and to do it without
00:23:28
human judgment and follow processes and
00:23:32
financial theory because the long term
00:23:34
those things turn to work work out
00:23:35
pretty well. But the problem with the
00:23:37
long term is that it is an eternity to
00:23:39
live through in the moment. And so for
00:23:41
the people who still feel uncertain and
00:23:43
shaken about what has happened and what
00:23:46
might happen, I will again reiterate for
00:23:49
the third fourth time in the past five
00:23:51
minutes totally normal. Just remember
00:23:53
why is it that we invest and what is a a
00:23:56
risk that you get compensated for and
00:23:57
what's a risk that you don't you don't
00:23:59
get compensated for trying to time the
00:24:01
market. You don't get compensated
00:24:02
systematically at least for trying to
00:24:05
pick exactly the right security. So,
00:24:07
even though I poorly timed the market
00:24:08
here, I'm going to go buy the single
00:24:10
fund that I own that's 100% stocks,
00:24:12
globally diversified, I will make no
00:24:14
choices other than what my predetermined
00:24:17
plan is. And you go forward that way.
00:24:19
And it can be one of the crazy things is
00:24:22
you look back at every drop and it seems
00:24:24
like an obvious opportunity in
00:24:26
hindsight, but it's always seems like a
00:24:29
risk in the moment. And so find a way to
00:24:31
turn what feels like a risk into an
00:24:33
opportunity. Cuz I can assure you that
00:24:35
when you look at one of those long-term
00:24:37
charts that goes up and to the right and
00:24:38
has all the headlines, this is just
00:24:40
going to be one of those headlines that
00:24:42
shows up on the on the chart of
00:24:43
long-term returns despite all of these
00:24:46
headlines. This is going to be on that
00:24:48
chart. You just wait it. Give us a year
00:24:50
so there's enough room on the chart to
00:24:52
include it and it'll be in every history
00:24:54
book like that.
00:24:55
>> You touched on a few things there,
00:24:56
Peter. Well, first off, I want to say
00:24:57
that your your quote that part of our
00:24:59
job and part of any investor's job is to
00:25:02
grow their assets faster than inflation
00:25:05
without undue risk. I'll be honest, I've
00:25:07
stolen that one from you before and used
00:25:08
it. That is a fantastic explanation of
00:25:11
the reason why we're all here in the
00:25:12
first place. It's not to become
00:25:14
gajillionaires and die at top the
00:25:16
greatest pile of gold that we can. It's
00:25:19
to simply grow our assets faster than
00:25:20
rel uh inflation, but also keeping risk
00:25:23
in mind, which which is huge. I want to
00:25:25
dive more into behavior because to me
00:25:28
when I've seen what's happened so far
00:25:30
this year, one of the biggest risks we
00:25:32
all face as individuals is that risk of
00:25:35
overreacting. It's that risk of
00:25:37
mistaking volatility for some sort of
00:25:39
signal that we need to change our plan.
00:25:42
And I'm pretty sure, correct me if I'm
00:25:44
wrong here, I think I listened to a
00:25:46
podcast episode that you put out earlier
00:25:48
this year where you said something akin
00:25:50
of like there are some times actually
00:25:52
where you suffer volatility maybe for
00:25:55
the first time as an investor or the
00:25:57
first time as a retiree, your account,
00:25:59
your portfolio really takes that first
00:26:01
big drop and you learn that maybe your
00:26:04
risk appetite isn't quite what it is and
00:26:07
changing your portfolio actually is the
00:26:09
right thing to do. It just so happens
00:26:11
that it was also the right thing to do
00:26:13
before the volatility hit. You just
00:26:15
didn't realize it. C can you dive into
00:26:16
that logic a little bit?
00:26:18
>> Yeah, it's interesting and I don't think
00:26:20
it's something that I would have said at
00:26:24
the start of my career nearly two
00:26:26
decades ago when my only education was
00:26:29
really that from a textbook. In reality,
00:26:32
when you're dealing with humans, you
00:26:34
can't take the human nature out of
00:26:35
humans. And you know, I think a lot of
00:26:38
times as we work with clients, it's not
00:26:41
just to be a robot fact machine. I mean,
00:26:43
in many instances, we have the unique
00:26:45
privilege to listen like a therapist and
00:26:48
ask questions and dig deeper. What I've
00:26:51
come to learn as a result of that is
00:26:54
nobody really has a problem with the
00:26:57
volatility itself, with the down market.
00:27:00
you we'll sign an investment policy
00:27:01
statement before we invest a client's
00:27:04
assets just like any other good adviser
00:27:05
will do and you'll say hey the portfolio
00:27:08
the worst 12 months it's had like if you
00:27:10
had a million would you be comfortable
00:27:12
losing $360,000 of it or whatever you're
00:27:15
like yeah of course I really think
00:27:17
people believe that and that's how we
00:27:19
set that stock bond mix but what I've
00:27:21
come to learn is that while people can
00:27:23
handle the volatility they can't
00:27:25
necessarily handle the narrative and I
00:27:27
think that's a very different piece of
00:27:29
the pie that has given me a different
00:27:33
appreciation for what my job is as like
00:27:35
your portfolio sherpa. You know, I'm not
00:27:37
just here choosing investments. I'm
00:27:39
going to give you the I'm going to think
00:27:40
a lot about the experience of investing.
00:27:43
And if that means that we didn't dress
00:27:45
you warm enough for the winter, we're
00:27:47
going to get you an extra layer of
00:27:49
coats, which in this case, I guess, are
00:27:51
bonds. I don't know, this is off the
00:27:52
cuff here. Or if you're too hot, you
00:27:54
know, we get you some swim trunks. In a
00:27:56
perfect world, the market's down and you
00:27:59
find out that you're too conservative.
00:28:01
That like you're in your 70s and you
00:28:03
have more money than you're going to
00:28:04
need and so you're going to more closely
00:28:06
align your portfolio with the time
00:28:08
horizon of those who are set to inherit
00:28:10
it and you get more aggressive in a
00:28:12
downturn. But if you're approaching
00:28:14
retirement or having just entered
00:28:16
retirement and you realize that you
00:28:19
can't handle the downturn, yeah, it's
00:28:21
not ideal to sell while markets are
00:28:25
down, but it is much better to adjust an
00:28:28
allocation a little bit than to go to
00:28:30
allcash. There is no doubt that getting
00:28:32
entirely out of the market is the wrong
00:28:34
move. Naturally when people want to make
00:28:37
such a move I remember in the years 2007
00:28:40
2008 2009
00:28:42
that was a very common conversation I
00:28:45
want to get out of the market everything
00:28:47
is going down everything's going down in
00:28:50
flames and we used to call them jumpers
00:28:53
like they're jumping out of the market
00:28:54
not jumping off a bill but call them
00:28:56
jumpers and like I was working in an
00:28:58
office that had no individual offices we
00:29:00
were in a totally open floor work like
00:29:02
all the founders and partners of the
00:29:03
firm were dispersed equally among us and
00:29:05
so you could hear all the client calls
00:29:07
and that to me was like a very different
00:29:10
vibe like trying to make sure you don't
00:29:12
get all the way out of the market
00:29:13
whereas if somebody's a 60% stock
00:29:15
portfolio and they want to go to 50/50
00:29:18
in the grand scheme of things it's not
00:29:19
that big a deal if it will help you
00:29:21
sleep at night it's not that big a deal
00:29:23
and I'm going to reluctantly say oh by
00:29:26
the way if you really want to make a
00:29:27
change that's going to make a real
00:29:28
difference in the long term should
00:29:30
probably make a move by more than 10%
00:29:32
but I don't know that off that that's
00:29:34
necessarily really what I want to see
00:29:35
people do. I just I recognize that 10
00:29:37
percentage point changes aren't going to
00:29:39
really change your trajectory that much.
00:29:41
And so, as a result, if it's really
00:29:42
going to help you sleep at night, that's
00:29:44
fine. What I like to do in those
00:29:46
instances is document it really for the
00:29:49
benefit of the client. So, if you think
00:29:51
like the best traders in the world, and
00:29:53
we're definitely not traders, but they
00:29:54
keep journals. They have their reasoning
00:29:56
why, like what would make them change
00:29:58
their mind and just like create an
00:30:00
archive of like, hey, this is what I
00:30:01
heard during our conversation and why
00:30:03
you want to make this move. And the
00:30:05
reason you do this is because if it fast
00:30:07
forward 6 months or 6 years and the
00:30:10
sentiment's totally flipped, you we have
00:30:12
to make sure that we have a a clear road
00:30:14
map of why we got to where we were for
00:30:16
making these changes. You can you're
00:30:18
allowed to make changes with your
00:30:19
portfolio. The you know in a perfect
00:30:21
world you pick one strategy and one
00:30:24
allocation you stick with it for as long
00:30:25
as possible. But at the end of the day
00:30:27
if you can afford to make that change
00:30:29
Yeah, you're right. I think I've I've
00:30:30
become a little more lenient in my
00:30:33
sentiment around that issue.
00:30:35
>> Yeah, you reminded me right there.
00:30:36
There's this uh Cliff Asna story that
00:30:39
maybe you've heard before where I think
00:30:41
it's his aunt or his great aunt. I think
00:30:43
she like lives in Australia, but she
00:30:45
travels back and forth to I believe it's
00:30:47
the USA pretty often. And she knew that.
00:30:49
Cliff asked us, if listeners, if you're
00:30:51
not familiar, he's a hedge fund guy,
00:30:53
right? And so she would ask Cliff, she's
00:30:55
like, "Hey, I know you do these currency
00:30:57
trades or whatever it is you do. When's
00:30:59
the right time in any given year when I
00:31:01
need to move my Australian dollars to US
00:31:04
and US to Australian?" And for years and
00:31:06
years and years, Cliff was like, "I
00:31:07
can't tell you that. Like, I can't zoom
00:31:09
into it this specific day." And she
00:31:12
interpreted that as like you're just
00:31:13
withholding information from me. Like
00:31:15
you know the answer but you're
00:31:16
withholding from me. And so eventually
00:31:18
he said he kind of got this better EQ
00:31:21
emotional intelligence. And he'd say
00:31:22
like you know what Aunt Cindy next
00:31:24
Wednesday you should do it next
00:31:25
Wednesday because she got the narrative
00:31:28
that she wanted which was she was
00:31:29
getting expert advice. And Cliff
00:31:31
realized it's all just arbitrary anyway.
00:31:34
So telling her next Wednesday isn't any
00:31:36
worse than telling her I don't know. And
00:31:39
there's a similar, not maybe exactly the
00:31:41
same, but there's a similar idea that
00:31:43
you just described there, Peter, which
00:31:44
is, you know what, if someone is 6040
00:31:47
right now, they feel like they have too
00:31:48
much risk and they want to go, you know,
00:31:51
going 5545 or 50/50 makes them feel
00:31:54
better for the rest of the year. Now,
00:31:57
okay, all else equal, it's probably not
00:31:59
a coin flip. I would rather they stay
00:32:00
6040 if that's better for their plan.
00:32:03
But if it does help them sleep at night,
00:32:05
it's close to being a coin flip and I'm
00:32:07
okay with that change and it's a lot
00:32:09
better than than saying, you know, a
00:32:11
month later, screw you, Jesse. You told
00:32:13
me I can't change and now I'm going all
00:32:14
cash like sayanara. It's a much better
00:32:17
outcome. So, it is there is this
00:32:18
interesting gray area. I also wanted to
00:32:20
touch on the narratives idea a little
00:32:22
bit more because one hard thing that I
00:32:25
find Peter is I'm certainly not a fake
00:32:28
news kind of conspiracy they're all
00:32:30
lying to us person but at the same time
00:32:32
I do realize that if we consume too much
00:32:36
news whether that's cable news or just
00:32:38
reading you know Google algorithm
00:32:40
feeding you the news that you're already
00:32:42
reading it is easy to convince yourself
00:32:45
that the narratives will start driving
00:32:47
your portfolio decisions and So, one of
00:32:49
my struggles or just one of the hard
00:32:51
parts I find about answering reader or
00:32:53
listener questions or answering client
00:32:55
questions is when they say, "But haven't
00:32:57
you been paying attention to the news?
00:32:59
You know, everything is going badly."
00:33:01
And that's been the case. It was the
00:33:02
case when President Biden was in office
00:33:04
and some people were saying everything
00:33:06
is going badly. And now it's the case
00:33:08
when President Trump is in office and
00:33:09
everything. And it really is largely
00:33:11
narrative driven. So, yeah. again. I
00:33:13
mean, maybe I'm I'm beating a dead horse
00:33:14
here, but what do you say to the the
00:33:17
client who's addicted to the news and is
00:33:18
telling you that you're wrong about the
00:33:20
world?
00:33:21
>> Yeah, I experience those same
00:33:23
conversations. And I try my best to
00:33:27
always anytime the conversation comes up
00:33:29
with a concern, the first question I ask
00:33:31
is, "How do you think that impacts
00:33:33
earnings?" Because at the end of the
00:33:34
day, the stock market tracks earnings so
00:33:38
closely, like shockingly closely. I
00:33:40
mentioned working on this book. I have a
00:33:42
whole chapter. It's become such an
00:33:44
important idea to me that it's almost an
00:33:45
entire chapter and there's some charts
00:33:47
in there that you'll be able to see like
00:33:48
how closely it's all tracked. And the
00:33:51
economy and the stock market are not the
00:33:53
same thing because the economy, they're
00:33:56
real people losing their jobs. Kid
00:33:58
businesses, they have access to sell to
00:34:01
the whole world. Now, are things worse
00:34:04
because of a set of policies than they
00:34:06
would have been otherwise? Perhaps. I
00:34:08
think that's a logical concern. But does
00:34:10
that mean that earnings won't continue?
00:34:13
Let me put this a different way. So I
00:34:15
own, you know, stake of the business
00:34:17
that I'm in. I'm not selling my business
00:34:20
because of the way the world is going.
00:34:21
We're trying to figure out as a business
00:34:23
how to earn as much money as possible.
00:34:25
All of my clients who are business
00:34:26
owners are doing the same thing. You
00:34:28
know, there is no policy. The front end
00:34:30
of my career was mostly with doctors. Uh
00:34:32
when I came to Plane Corporate, I
00:34:33
introduced a lot of business owners into
00:34:35
like the type of people I worked with.
00:34:36
Mhm.
00:34:37
>> And I've never ever ever met a business
00:34:40
owner who says, "I'm going to just sell
00:34:42
my business because, you know, the
00:34:44
economy is terrible. I'm just going to
00:34:45
sell my business." What is it that we
00:34:48
all think we're doing in stocks? We own
00:34:50
businesses. And that's where it's a
00:34:52
narrative correction. What's so
00:34:54
interesting is so many times people give
00:34:55
me all these reasons that things are
00:34:57
bad. I'm like that those are all facts,
00:34:59
but they're not necessarily relevant.
00:35:02
That actually comes up with the
00:35:03
investment case for a lot of things.
00:35:05
Like we don't have to go down a huge
00:35:06
rabbit hole, but like one topic that I
00:35:09
really struggle with, for example, are
00:35:10
private investments. Like maybe they're
00:35:13
useful. If they're free, I'm all in, but
00:35:16
I don't think they're necessary. And
00:35:17
like the primary narrative for using
00:35:19
them are all facts.
00:35:20
>> I'm just not sure they're relevant. When
00:35:23
you come to things on policy or the
00:35:25
economy, all facts, all something that I
00:35:27
think might impact you in real life. I
00:35:30
think especially in the last six months,
00:35:32
you know, the thing I've kind of been
00:35:34
reflecting on is, hey, this is the sort
00:35:35
of thing that's going to affect our
00:35:37
everyday lives, but it's, you know,
00:35:39
long-term not really going to affect the
00:35:42
way that businesses in the sense that
00:35:44
they try to make as much money as they
00:35:46
possibly can. If we get to a point where
00:35:48
businesses stop trying to make money,
00:35:50
that is a massive problem. I don't
00:35:53
really see that happening. If the US
00:35:56
consumer, they say, "Well, they have to
00:35:57
sell to the US consumer." If the
00:35:59
consumer is worse off, you're like,
00:36:00
"Well, they might be worse off, but
00:36:02
maybe they're going to go sell more in a
00:36:03
different country." Well, aren't those
00:36:05
earnings less because of all the
00:36:06
tariffs? Maybe. Yeah, but they're still
00:36:08
going to try to make as much money as
00:36:10
they can. And this is not the first
00:36:13
obstacle that businesses have faced. And
00:36:15
so, I think kind of going back to like
00:36:17
these narratives of the economy is
00:36:19
looking bad. And look to be clear
00:36:20
actually the economy is showing some
00:36:22
like mild signs of strain. What does
00:36:25
that mean?
00:36:27
Nobody really knows because some
00:36:28
economic data doesn't read out the same
00:36:30
way it used to. It all goes back to
00:36:32
earnings. And that doesn't mean that you
00:36:34
can't have temporary declines in
00:36:36
earnings. But generally speaking, as
00:36:39
long as you think companies will keep
00:36:40
trying to make money, earnings have
00:36:42
historically grown more than inflation.
00:36:45
Well, that's because when there's
00:36:46
inflation, the businesses pass on the
00:36:48
price increases and then boom, you got
00:36:50
higher earnings. Well, then it's a
00:36:52
matter of well, some companies earn more
00:36:55
than others because new markets are
00:36:56
created. Think of like Nvidia. So, AI
00:36:59
like the chips that are needed to run AI
00:37:02
programming,
00:37:04
those were a market for the last like 10
00:37:06
years, but boy did they become an
00:37:08
important market in the last year or
00:37:09
two. And what's pretty crazy about the
00:37:12
stock market is less than like 5% of
00:37:14
stocks drive all the returns basically
00:37:17
in any given year. And so it's not that
00:37:19
every company is going to do needs to do
00:37:22
well. And maybe that's something I
00:37:23
should have uh led with. You get me
00:37:25
talking talking long enough. I'll get to
00:37:26
the points eventually, but let's just go
00:37:28
strictly with tariffs. There will be
00:37:30
winners and there will be losers.
00:37:32
>> But the winners might win so big that
00:37:34
the losers it doesn't really matter. you
00:37:36
know, they might more than make up the
00:37:38
earnings lost from some of the smaller
00:37:40
companies. And oh, by the way, like some
00:37:42
of these losers in the total stock
00:37:44
market make up like less than a tenth of
00:37:46
a percent of it. So, it's not to say
00:37:47
there won't be winners and losers. It's
00:37:49
not to say that there won't be winners
00:37:50
and losers in the real economy. And
00:37:53
those are real concerns. And I feel
00:37:55
really bad for a lot of people who this
00:37:57
impacts. And I'm going to say this, I
00:37:59
hope the audience doesn't take it the
00:38:01
wrong way. I mean, one of the things
00:38:02
about the policies recently as well as
00:38:05
all of the policies since the great
00:38:06
financial crisis are that if you are an
00:38:09
owner of financial assets, you're
00:38:11
probably in pretty good position. So,
00:38:14
does that mean it widens the inequality
00:38:16
gap? I'm not an expert in this space,
00:38:18
but my intuition would be yes.
00:38:20
>> Mhm.
00:38:20
>> If you're worried about being able to
00:38:22
meet your own financial goals, I would
00:38:24
say that as long as you're a holder,
00:38:26
because again, we're just trying to
00:38:27
outpace inflation here. That's the first
00:38:28
principle why we're investing. If you
00:38:30
have financial assets, a lot of these
00:38:32
things are, you know, maybe your assets
00:38:34
won't grow 15% a year like they did for
00:38:36
a while there. That was unusual. That
00:38:38
was not normal. But, but yeah, you're
00:38:40
probably going to be okay long term.
00:38:43
>> That's always an interesting one to
00:38:44
touch on, Peter. I've struggled with it
00:38:46
as a content creator over time, whether
00:38:47
it's writing or podcasting, where we do
00:38:50
notice things where we say, "Boy, this
00:38:53
particular tax law is probably going to
00:38:55
benefit, you know, it might make wealth
00:38:57
inequality worse." Or there are some
00:38:59
things I know in like the financial
00:39:01
independence movement where you say
00:39:02
like, "Wait, you could retire with
00:39:04
millions of dollars, artificially, show
00:39:06
very little income, and get totally free
00:39:08
healthcare." I mean, the answer is yes,
00:39:10
you can. It's difficult for us in our
00:39:12
positions to fundamentally change
00:39:15
policy. If someone wanted to ask us,
00:39:17
we're free to give our opinions there
00:39:19
and say, "Yeah, and these policies
00:39:20
aren't necessarily fair." But at the
00:39:21
same time, if our job here is to give
00:39:23
the best advice we can to the
00:39:25
individuals listening, yeah, there
00:39:27
there's something to be said where
00:39:29
people who own incomeroucing assets have
00:39:31
tended to benefit from that ownership
00:39:34
potentially to a disproportionate
00:39:36
amount. Okay. But still, you're better
00:39:38
off owning them than not. Maybe we'll
00:39:40
leave the uh philosophical discussion to
00:39:42
a to another podcast or another episode.
00:39:44
Here's a quick ad and then we'll get
00:39:46
back to the show. Every week I send a
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quick free email to thousands of readers
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that shares three simple things. One, my
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It's a great primer to boost your
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financial knowhow. But Jesse, I don't
00:40:09
want another email.
00:40:11
>> Well, this might not be for you, but I
00:40:13
do hear you, which is why I make it very
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short, sweet, and full of only the
00:40:17
essentials. A whopping 66% of
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Again, that's a free no strings attached
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subscription at bestinterest.blog.
00:40:35
On the topic of recession, the one thing
00:40:37
I wanted to touch on with you, and
00:40:38
again, neither you nor I are PhD
00:40:41
economists. You might have you, you must
00:40:43
>> No, no, no. Definitely not PhD. I got a
00:40:45
major in economics, but I don't think
00:40:47
that even makes me remotely an
00:40:49
economist.
00:40:50
>> But at least you
00:40:51
>> That makes me a college graduate. Yes.
00:40:53
You you can speak to this question
00:40:54
probably better than I can though which
00:40:56
is I think some people very through
00:40:59
through lucky circumstance last week I
00:41:01
got quoted in the in the Wall Street
00:41:03
Journal which was wow big big honor and
00:41:06
the article right the article was about
00:41:07
recessions and the fact that millennials
00:41:10
might be as you alluded to some of the
00:41:12
data is looking a little weak and
00:41:14
millennials might start living through
00:41:16
what's our third recession the first one
00:41:18
being the great financial crisis which
00:41:20
was like potentially one of the worst
00:41:22
recessions the world's ever seen. The
00:41:24
second one being CO which reminded us
00:41:26
that right anything can happen and and
00:41:27
pandemics are real and now a third one
00:41:30
might might begin. But the question I
00:41:33
have for you is does every recession
00:41:35
have to be a great financial crisis or
00:41:38
come along with something like a global
00:41:39
pandemic or is it possible to have a
00:41:42
more vanilla recession?
00:41:44
>> Well, it's a great question. It's one of
00:41:47
the reasons that a deep understanding of
00:41:51
history, economic and market and
00:41:53
financial history can be so helpful to
00:41:55
so many adviserss and even individuals
00:41:58
who have lived through these periods
00:42:00
either were at a point in their lives
00:42:01
where they had less money and didn't
00:42:03
care or they've forgotten or they never
00:42:07
really realized what was happening in
00:42:08
the first place. And so recessions take
00:42:12
on all shapes and sizes. And there can
00:42:14
also, just for the record, a recession
00:42:16
doesn't mean that there's a bare market
00:42:17
in stocks. And a bare market in stocks
00:42:19
doesn't mean that there's a recession.
00:42:21
They often a bare market tends to
00:42:23
precede a recession. But like 2022 is a
00:42:26
great example. Had a bare market in
00:42:27
stocks, no recession alongside with it.
00:42:30
You kind of had this intermittent
00:42:32
weakness in different sectors of the
00:42:34
economy. There was a really good term
00:42:35
for it that's escaping me at the moment,
00:42:37
but that's okay. So, I think a recession
00:42:39
doesn't have to be a crisis. Recession
00:42:42
to me I think if you're going to try to
00:42:45
simply categorize it you think job loss.
00:42:48
So recession you're typically going to
00:42:50
see a lot of job loss that can bring
00:42:53
some real life implications and really
00:42:55
shape what your world view is. So if you
00:42:58
are you mentioned a millennial if this
00:43:00
is your third recession and you lost
00:43:01
your job in each one of them you're
00:43:03
going to be really afraid of recession.
00:43:05
If you're a millennial who did not lose
00:43:07
their job in any of the recessions and
00:43:09
maybe even got to invest
00:43:11
opportunistically, you're also going to
00:43:13
view recessions in a very different
00:43:14
light.
00:43:15
>> I think when you are thinking about
00:43:18
recessions, to me, it's less about your
00:43:20
portfolio and more about your balance
00:43:22
sheet. And I tend to think of the two
00:43:25
things differently myself in part
00:43:27
because my portfolio is so boring. I
00:43:28
mean, I I already kind of referred to
00:43:30
it. I own one fund that's 100% stocks. I
00:43:33
don't have any taxable dollars. is just
00:43:35
my business. One day I aspire to have
00:43:37
taxable dollars again. But you know, in
00:43:39
general, my balance sheet has different
00:43:41
risks in a recession than my portfolio
00:43:43
does. My portfolio is all retirement
00:43:46
accounts at this point. So I don't need
00:43:48
the money. I'm 40 years old. Let's say I
00:43:51
don't need it for 20 to 30 years. A
00:43:53
recession has zero impact on my
00:43:55
portfolio. A recession on my balance
00:43:57
sheet is a little different. I have some
00:43:59
leverage tied to the commercial loan for
00:44:01
the business that I own. my cash levels
00:44:04
like my business is kind of tied to the
00:44:06
stock market. So if the stock market's
00:44:08
down, my income's down and my cash
00:44:09
levels are low and like suddenly I have
00:44:11
to think about balance sheet management
00:44:13
a little bit more. I'm just kind of
00:44:15
talking about my own situation, but if
00:44:17
you're listening to this, think about
00:44:19
your balance sheet. Think about the cash
00:44:20
that's on it. Think about the long-term
00:44:22
liabilities, whether it's a mortgage or
00:44:24
student debt or some kind of commercial
00:44:26
loan. Think about your portfolio, both
00:44:29
retirement assets and otherwise, and how
00:44:31
would a recession, how would a change in
00:44:33
your income stream impact your balance
00:44:35
sheet? And I think, you know, if you're
00:44:37
near retirement, it could a lot. And I
00:44:39
think that's a very valid concern. I
00:44:42
won't make it sound too draconian, but
00:44:43
like a less than ideal scenario for
00:44:45
somebody about to retire is that the
00:44:47
first year that they're in retirement,
00:44:48
there's a down market. It's not the best
00:44:50
thing to have happen because you have to
00:44:52
withdraw for your portfolio and you do
00:44:54
permanently impair the portfolio's
00:44:56
earning potential by doing that.
00:44:58
>> So what you might do if you're going
00:45:00
into retirement is start building up a
00:45:02
cash reserve so that if there is a
00:45:05
recession one, it won't delay your
00:45:07
retirement. So I've seen that happen
00:45:08
before where people are like going to
00:45:10
retire in a given year and then there's
00:45:12
a recession so they hold off retirement
00:45:14
for another 6 to 12 months. Well, like
00:45:16
look, you don't get to push out your
00:45:17
life expectancy to 6 12 months. So, I
00:45:20
view that as not good financial
00:45:21
planning. I view that as a missed
00:45:23
opportunity. And so, like having the
00:45:25
cash to live through your first
00:45:26
recession without needing to draw
00:45:28
through your portfolio is a really good
00:45:30
preparation point. Doesn't have to be
00:45:32
something that's built overnight, but I
00:45:34
mean, it could depending on the way that
00:45:35
you retire. If you have pensions, you
00:45:38
know, you're a little more recession
00:45:39
proof. If you're below the age of 50,
00:45:42
your portfolio is probably recession
00:45:44
proof. And when I say recession proof,
00:45:45
not that it's immune to losses, but like
00:45:47
you really don't need to worry about it.
00:45:48
And so again, kind of going full circle
00:45:50
back to my original statement, I tend to
00:45:52
think more about how would a recession
00:45:55
imp impact my balance sheet than my
00:45:57
portfolio. And if you are retired, I
00:45:59
think the same is true. Like yes, you
00:46:01
should have a portfolio that is built
00:46:04
that assumes that you're going to have
00:46:05
downturns again with a similar magnitude
00:46:07
and frequency as as you've had in the
00:46:09
past. And so you've tested it in a Monte
00:46:11
Carlo analysis that shows yes, I can
00:46:13
make this withdrawal in a down market.
00:46:16
You should be good. Now it's just a
00:46:17
matter of managing the rest of your
00:46:18
life. You don't have to wor about worry
00:46:19
about losing your job in retirement
00:46:21
because you don't have a job. Do you
00:46:23
have to worry about your kids losing a
00:46:24
job and how you might respond if they
00:46:26
do? These are the things that I would be
00:46:28
talking about more so than is my stock
00:46:31
bond allocation right? Should I have
00:46:32
more international instead of more US?
00:46:34
You know, do I need to make changes to
00:46:37
where my cash is held, etc. I want to
00:46:39
touch on one of those things you said
00:46:40
right there, but real quick, you did
00:46:42
mention the sequence of returns risk.
00:46:43
So, listeners, I want to point you to uh
00:46:46
back on episode 87, we had a deep dive
00:46:48
on the sequence of returns risk that's
00:46:50
worth checking out. But right there,
00:46:52
Peter, you just mentioned, you know, one
00:46:53
of the questions you might ask is,
00:46:54
should you think about your
00:46:56
international versus domestic holdings?
00:46:58
The last question I want to pepper you
00:47:00
with today as far as 2025 so far has
00:47:02
been this uh interesting at least
00:47:05
shortterm maybe it'll stay short-term
00:47:08
change in international versus domestic
00:47:11
stock returns. What have you seen out
00:47:13
there? What kind of conversations have
00:47:14
have you had? I know I I've had some
00:47:16
going back to the the news narratives.
00:47:19
I've had some people who especially in
00:47:20
the downturn of April said, "Well, let's
00:47:23
just go 100% international now." So, I
00:47:25
thought that was a fun conversation to
00:47:26
have. But yeah, what do you see out
00:47:28
there? Uh what a reversal from like the
00:47:30
past 15 years. So for context, I started
00:47:32
my career in the summer of 2007 and
00:47:35
basically every year through the
00:47:37
financial crisis into like 2011 2012
00:47:40
when the US debt was downgraded by S&P
00:47:42
for the first time, everyone was
00:47:44
obsessed with owning more China. People
00:47:47
did not want to own US. US was the
00:47:49
worst. We should own all international,
00:47:51
more international. You know, the past
00:47:54
10, 15 years, people have said why do we
00:47:56
own international? we should only own
00:47:58
US. And Jesse, I had my first
00:48:00
conversation with a client a few weeks
00:48:02
ago saying, I want to shift from the US
00:48:05
to international. So, it's finally
00:48:06
happening. We're finally here. I'm
00:48:08
thinking, gosh, I can't wait till
00:48:09
international outperforms so that I can
00:48:11
stop having this conversation. But silly
00:48:14
me, I forgot that then people just want
00:48:15
whatever's outperforming. And I'm not
00:48:17
making fun of anyone listening who feels
00:48:19
that way. I mean, it's this is just our
00:48:20
job. It's hard not to laugh at it. And I
00:48:23
think in general, let's go to the simple
00:48:26
why do we own international? There can
00:48:28
be different reasons. I'll tell you why
00:48:29
I own it, Jesse, is I own it for
00:48:31
diversification. I don't own it
00:48:33
necessarily for higher returns. What is
00:48:37
good about diversification
00:48:38
mathematically is if we have two
00:48:40
portfolios with the same return and one
00:48:42
is has lower volatility and one has
00:48:45
higher volatility. The one with lower
00:48:47
volatility is going to compound at a
00:48:49
better rate and as a result have a
00:48:51
higher compound return and that's like
00:48:53
your real life money. You want high
00:48:55
compound returns. Your average return
00:48:57
that you see you know on morning star of
00:48:59
a fund doesn't really matter what did it
00:49:00
compound at. So if the two returns are
00:49:03
the same but one is lower volatility,
00:49:04
you want the lower volatility one. And
00:49:06
that's what diversification does. Now in
00:49:09
reality, you do give up a little bit of
00:49:12
return by owning a global portfolio
00:49:14
versus just an all US portfolio, but the
00:49:18
corresponding reduction in volatility is
00:49:21
great enough that that compound return
00:49:23
is attractive enough to diversify. So
00:49:26
today when people are thinking about
00:49:29
like should I switch from one to the
00:49:30
other you're kind of remembering why you
00:49:32
do it and the research will show that
00:49:35
you get that diversification benefit
00:49:37
that reduction in volatility benefit
00:49:40
from owning anywhere between 20 and 50%
00:49:43
non- US stocks. The problem with the
00:49:46
research is nobody knows what the magic
00:49:47
number is.
00:49:48
>> And so I would tell you you pick a
00:49:51
number and you just stick with it. Like
00:49:53
if I were a gambling man and I had my
00:49:55
gun to a head and I had to bet what's
00:49:57
going to have higher returns over the
00:49:58
next 10 years, US or international, I'd
00:50:00
say international. But you know what? I
00:50:02
would have said that each of the last
00:50:03
like four or five years, too, and been
00:50:05
wrong. And so I'm a really big proponent
00:50:08
of pick a percentage and stick with it.
00:50:11
Now, let me share one other quick
00:50:12
narrative because I know we're running
00:50:13
long and I apologize. I'm a wordy guy. I
00:50:16
remember being at my former firm. The
00:50:18
year is 2011 and we're looking at the
00:50:21
return data set and from like the Msei
00:50:24
data starts in 1970 and so like 1970
00:50:26
through 2011 the returns of an all US
00:50:29
portfolio were identical to the returns
00:50:31
of a global portfolio. And so we
00:50:33
increased our international allocation
00:50:36
and all the reasons showed that we
00:50:39
should do it at the time. But then you
00:50:41
fast forward and wow did we make a bad
00:50:42
decision. And actually a friend of mine
00:50:45
who has a similar role at a firm similar
00:50:47
size as us did the complete opposite
00:50:49
this year. You know they had been
00:50:50
overweight international for so long cuz
00:50:52
the valuations suggest much like I just
00:50:54
said that international should
00:50:56
outperform. They had been overweight
00:50:57
international forever and then they
00:50:59
switched to overweight US at the
00:51:01
beginning of this year like the exact
00:51:02
wrong timing.
00:51:03
>> So you find a percentage between 20 and
00:51:06
50% of your portfolio and don't change
00:51:09
it. We happen to be at 30%. Why are we
00:51:12
at 30%. I'll be honest, Jesse. This firm
00:51:14
was started over 40 years ago. I don't
00:51:16
know why we did it, but I'm in charge
00:51:17
and we're not changing it. Is there data
00:51:19
that could make me change my mind? Of
00:51:21
course. You give me 200 more years worth
00:51:23
of data, which I know I can't have, but
00:51:24
like let's say I somehow magically
00:51:26
could. I'm open to changing my mind, but
00:51:29
I think I've now watched too many
00:51:31
instances of the timing getting wrong.
00:51:32
We already know that we can't predict
00:51:34
the future. Why would this situation be
00:51:36
any different? And so if you're sitting
00:51:38
in your globally diversified portfolio
00:51:40
thinking that you want to move more
00:51:41
intern into international or even go all
00:51:44
international,
00:51:45
even if you're right, you're going to
00:51:47
have to figure out when to switch back.
00:51:48
And chances are you're going to be
00:51:50
wrong. Not because I'm making a
00:51:51
prediction, but just because like we are
00:51:53
all terrible at timing the market.
00:51:55
>> Peter, you are always a treasure trove
00:51:58
of good investing thoughts and that
00:51:59
answer is just another example of that.
00:52:02
Two vital questions for you. one being
00:52:05
let's let the listeners know where they
00:52:06
can listen to you on a more consistent
00:52:08
basis, but then the second one being
00:52:10
remind us a little bit about the
00:52:12
timeline and the topic of your book that
00:52:14
you're working on right now.
00:52:15
>> Okay. Well, yeah, thanks for the
00:52:17
invitation to to share. So, my podcast
00:52:20
is called the long-term investor. So,
00:52:22
you can go to the long-term.com or you
00:52:24
can search the long-term investor in
00:52:26
your podcast app. I did double check the
00:52:28
URL I shared earlier if you would like a
00:52:30
free copy of the book. I don't have
00:52:32
unlimited, but I am looking at a box
00:52:34
right now of like 30ome. You can go to
00:52:36
peterlazeroff.com/freebook.
00:52:39
The new book, oh my god, I'm going to
00:52:41
give you another URL. The new book you
00:52:43
can learn about by going to, drum roll,
00:52:46
the perfect portfoliobook.com.
00:52:49
It is due out, I think, in July of 2026.
00:52:53
But that last URL I shared, if you sign
00:52:55
up for that, you are not on my normal
00:52:57
email list. You're going to get early
00:52:59
access to chapters. You are going to get
00:53:00
some special offers for like signed
00:53:02
books. There's going to be some
00:53:04
subscriber only webinars and whatever
00:53:06
else my marketing person comes up with
00:53:07
between now and then. I'm going to do a
00:53:09
lot of behind the scenes stuff so you
00:53:10
can get a sense. I know when you sign up
00:53:12
for the newsletter like the outline of
00:53:14
the book is the third like you get three
00:53:16
automatic emails over 3 days and then
00:53:18
you get on a regular update. But you get
00:53:20
an excerpt from a chapter pretty quickly
00:53:22
and you get the outline of the book and
00:53:24
I'm going to share chapters as you know
00:53:26
in full when they're truly like
00:53:28
publisher approved and done. And so,
00:53:30
yeah, would really appreciate anybody
00:53:31
checking that out and follow along. And,
00:53:33
you know, just like on this podcast, you
00:53:35
comment, you subscribe, you like, you
00:53:37
follow. Those are like what help other
00:53:38
people who are passionate about these
00:53:40
topics like you. You're listening to us
00:53:42
right now. It means you're passionate
00:53:44
about this. When you review like Jesse's
00:53:47
podcast or you review my podcast, it
00:53:49
helps other people like you find us. So,
00:53:51
we both appreciate when you do that.
00:53:53
>> 100%. That's totally true. Well, Peter,
00:53:55
thank you again for stopping by.
00:53:56
Personal Finance for Long-Term
00:53:58
Investors.
00:53:59
>> Yeah, Jesse, thanks for having me.
00:54:00
>> Thanks for tuning in to this episode of
00:54:02
Personal Finance for Long-Term
00:54:04
Investors. If you have a question for
00:54:06
Jesse to answer on a future episode,
00:54:08
send him an email over at his blog, The
00:54:10
Bestinest. His email address is
00:54:15
Again, that's jessevestinterest.blog.
00:54:19
Did you enjoy the show? Subscribe, rate,
00:54:21
and review the podcast wherever you
00:54:23
listen. This helps others find the show
00:54:25
and invest in knowledge themselves, and
00:54:28
we really appreciate it. We'll catch you
00:54:30
on the next episode of Personal Finance
00:54:32
for Long-Term Investors. Personal
00:54:34
Finance for Long-Term Investors is a
00:54:36
personal podcast meant for education and
00:54:38
entertainment. It should not be taken as
00:54:40
financial advice and it's not
00:54:42
prescriptive of your financial
00:54:43
situation.

Episode Highlights

  • The Importance of Setting Expectations
    Jesse discusses how to manage expectations during market volatility and the importance of preparation.
    “Volatility is a feature, not a bug.”
    @ 05m 14s
    July 23, 2025
  • Writing a Letter for Market Crashes
    Jesse shares his personal letter to himself for when his portfolio crashes, emphasizing the importance of intention in investment strategy.
    “You knew this could happen. And it’s okay that it did happen.”
    @ 09m 41s
    July 23, 2025
  • Market Reactions to Elections
    Half of people are upset and half are happy after elections, impacting market perceptions.
    “I wouldn’t call a 20% drop a crash, but we had a near 20% pullback.”
    @ 17m 16s
    July 23, 2025
  • Understanding Market Volatility
    Investors often mistake volatility for signals to change their plans, which can be risky.
    “Mistaking volatility for some sort of signal that we need to change our plan.”
    @ 25m 32s
    July 23, 2025
  • The Importance of Earnings
    The stock market closely tracks earnings, making it crucial to focus on fundamentals.
    “The stock market tracks earnings so closely, like shockingly closely.”
    @ 33m 38s
    July 23, 2025
  • The Resilience of Business Owners
    Business owners are focused on making money, regardless of economic conditions. "I’m not selling my business because of the way the world is going."
    “I’m not selling my business because of the way the world is going.”
    @ 34m 20s
    July 23, 2025
  • Understanding Recessions
    Recessions can take many forms and don’t always lead to a bear market. Understanding history is crucial.
    “A recession doesn’t have to be a crisis.”
    @ 42m 42s
    July 23, 2025
  • The Importance of Diversification
    Diversification can lead to better compound returns despite potentially lower returns. It's about managing volatility.
    “You want high compound returns.”
    @ 48m 55s
    July 23, 2025
  • The Long-Term Investor Podcast
    Peter shares insights on his podcast and upcoming book, emphasizing the importance of long-term investing.
    “You can go to thelongterm.com or search the long-term investor in your podcast app.”
    @ 52m 22s
    July 23, 2025

Episode Quotes

Key Moments

  • Market Volatility05:14
  • Election Impact16:54
  • Market Pullback17:16
  • Risk Awareness21:19
  • Business Resilience34:40
  • Recession Insights42:42
  • Podcast Promotion52:22
  • Listener Engagement53:44

Words per Minute Over Time

Vibes Breakdown

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