00:00:00
okay Scott now it's time for our
00:00:01
predictions I'm going to do mine first I
00:00:03
think um Donald Trump's age is might
00:00:05
become an issue in the next two years I
00:00:07
think the presidency is an incredibly
00:00:09
difficult thing I do think it might be
00:00:11
calmer and it's largely not because he's
00:00:13
become wiser because he's not he's not
00:00:15
wise and anyway he's not a good person
00:00:18
he's a Serial sexual harasser at the
00:00:20
very least and a and other things I
00:00:23
think he's a terrible person I think his
00:00:25
age is going to calm him down I don't
00:00:27
know how else to put it either through
00:00:29
uh
00:00:30
natural what happens when you get older
00:00:33
and the and the difficulties of this so
00:00:35
you may see a calmer Donald Trump I just
00:00:38
I you may see it and it's not because
00:00:39
he's a good person or he's turning the
00:00:41
tide or anything else he also is
00:00:43
probably looking at his legacy now and
00:00:45
he's a lame duck president no matter how
00:00:46
you slice it he's a lame duck president
00:00:49
and again people around him are aware of
00:00:50
it I've heard it from so many people in
00:00:52
his party we only need him for a couple
00:00:54
more years they've said it uh and then
00:00:56
we'll make them into an icon we'll do
00:00:58
some statues all good and so I think
00:01:01
it's going to may be a little surprising
00:01:03
and it's not again not cuz he's a good
00:01:05
person um as to uh my other prediction I
00:01:09
do think there's going to be a lot more
00:01:12
advantage to companies in AI that you
00:01:14
aren't thinking of like IBM Salesforce a
00:01:17
lot of the others that are going to ride
00:01:18
on the rails of the enormous spending
00:01:21
that uh whether it's $30 billion from
00:01:24
from meta whether it's um uh 50 to 50 to
00:01:28
80 billion from Microsoft or all of them
00:01:31
are spending I think those who ride the
00:01:33
rails on these things are going to be
00:01:35
the beneficiaries that put them into
00:01:37
place whether you're sales force helping
00:01:39
Disney with its lines that's one of
00:01:41
their clients or um IBM or things like
00:01:44
that so I would look to those companies
00:01:46
in a lot of ways who are going to be the
00:01:48
real beneficiaries it reminds me of the
00:01:50
early internet it was not the companies
00:01:51
that put up the websites like netf ncape
00:01:55
excuse me it was the companies that rode
00:01:57
the rails and these rails are being put
00:01:59
in place not by our government but by
00:02:01
companies and they're getting paid for
00:02:03
whether it's energy costs everything
00:02:05
else so I would look to those companies
00:02:07
in 2025 I think the AI Revolution is
00:02:10
just getting started and it will start
00:02:11
to really it reminds me of early early
00:02:14
internet and who who began and who
00:02:17
succeeded were two very different
00:02:19
parties on to you Scott Galloway I like
00:02:22
those uh so okay so briefly 2025 will be
00:02:27
the year of a new doop it'll be open
00:02:29
video open Ai and Nvidia right now
00:02:31
control arguably 90% of all traffic and
00:02:34
AI 90% of the queries 90% of the queries
00:02:37
of the processors that are powering
00:02:38
those answers to those queries are those
00:02:41
two firms and so it'll be kind of the
00:02:43
new winel and people will start
00:02:45
referring it to it as the most powerful
00:02:46
duopoly in the world we're we haven't
00:02:49
seen I think we're going to see a bunch
00:02:50
of raft of new unicorns in the
00:02:52
application layer of AI we have the
00:02:54
infrastructure layer we have the llms
00:02:55
themselves but every every Innovation or
00:02:59
new techn techology creates a bunch of
00:03:00
interesting consumer applications I
00:03:02
think you're going to see a raft of new
00:03:04
unicorns in healthcare where you upload
00:03:07
your medical records your diet and it
00:03:09
starts playing offense and come back
00:03:10
comes back to you with exact I told you
00:03:13
for the first time I H was diagnosed
00:03:15
with high blood pressure two and a half
00:03:16
months ago I went into AI I uploaded my
00:03:19
urine my blood work my fecal work uh I
00:03:22
talked very openly about my diet and it
00:03:24
came back with a series of
00:03:26
recommendations and I took them to heart
00:03:29
and I no longer have high blood pressure
00:03:31
and I think that's going to be
00:03:32
systemized routinized and create a bunch
00:03:35
of interesting applications around
00:03:36
Fitness healthc care especially I think
00:03:38
around travel there's a huge opportunity
00:03:40
look at all I upload all my credit card
00:03:42
bills all my past travel my calendar and
00:03:44
it starts proactively saying Scott we
00:03:46
see that you're going to be in La for
00:03:48
this meeting we're going to book you
00:03:50
here you should do this you should go
00:03:51
see your dad you should do this I've
00:03:53
already organiz what you upload to open
00:03:56
AI well so for example I I took my MRIs
00:04:00
on my shoulders and I uploaded it to
00:04:03
open Ai and I said please diagnose this
00:04:05
and tell me what I should be doing what
00:04:06
stretching I should be doing and it
00:04:07
comes back with a whole list of things I
00:04:10
mean you can you can upload a board de
00:04:12
I'll give you an example Cara yeah we
00:04:15
you know we're out in the marketplace
00:04:16
potentially thinking about our next four
00:04:18
years I uploaded our deck that we put
00:04:20
together on summarizing our business and
00:04:23
I said I basically said what is the
00:04:26
likely deal we will get and what should
00:04:28
we be thinking about I mean this is
00:04:30
so powerful and instead of having smart
00:04:33
people prompt people are going to build
00:04:35
a thin layer of innovation call someone
00:04:37
in that case and it's like calling
00:04:38
calling your smart friend yeah
00:04:40
interesting wow or but it'll be
00:04:42
proactive it'll say okay here's the new
00:04:44
tra you know AI enabled travel and
00:04:46
Expedia is going very hard at this and I
00:04:49
just say it just starts sending me text
00:04:51
alerts saying oh we see you have this
00:04:53
coming up this is this is your travel
00:04:55
itinerary and what we're thinking here
00:04:56
are the decisions I need from you you
00:04:58
know you just said exped I think they're
00:05:00
a ride the rails company too they're
00:05:01
going to benefit anyway they don't have
00:05:03
to pay for ride the rails go ahead yeah
00:05:06
I think so uh so anyway software
00:05:09
basically SAS goes from um software as a
00:05:12
service to Service as a software that's
00:05:13
what I kind of see my prediction for AI
00:05:17
podcast this is going to be the the
00:05:19
breakout year of podcast because this
00:05:21
election just
00:05:23
illuminated uh what is going to be an
00:05:25
enormous transfer of capital from the
00:05:27
political spending machine and that is
00:05:28
they used to spend a ton of money on
00:05:30
local broadcast TV stations because
00:05:31
those were voters I old people were and
00:05:34
what they realize is where you go for
00:05:35
voters is podcasts and if you can go on
00:05:38
one podcast and get the equivalent
00:05:40
listenership of going on CNN MSNBC or
00:05:44
Fox every night during prime time for
00:05:45
three hours for a week by going on one
00:05:47
podcast you're just going to see in the
00:05:49
amount of capital it's drawing the means
00:05:50
of production are less expensive so
00:05:53
creators make more money which is
00:05:54
drawing in more human capital 47% of
00:05:57
people have listened to a podcast in the
00:05:59
last 30 days versus less than 10% uh 15
00:06:02
years ago I mean the medium is just the
00:06:05
medium is going to boom and car I don't
00:06:07
know I'm sure you're getting the same
00:06:08
calls I have all of these political
00:06:10
candidates reaching out to me asking me
00:06:11
for their for my views on things which
00:06:14
means I am running for something and I
00:06:16
want to come on your podcast I have had
00:06:18
four US senators write me both republ
00:06:21
recently text me this week it was crazy
00:06:23
yeah can I come on podcast and I say to
00:06:26
them the governors several Governors I
00:06:28
say to them you're you're ambitious
00:06:29
running for something that's fine for me
00:06:32
uh yeah 100% but don't don't pretend you
00:06:35
want to talk to me about policy right
00:06:37
yeah um
00:06:38
anyways this and podcast Revenue in 2025
00:06:42
is going to grow faster granted off a
00:06:43
small base than meta or alphabet or
00:06:47
Amazon it's going to be up 20 plus perc
00:06:50
the cpms it it's a better consumer it's
00:06:53
a
00:06:54
34-year-old versus a 7-year-old it's
00:06:56
much more impactful because we do host
00:06:58
read overs people go to cable news to
00:07:00
sanctify their beliefs people go to
00:07:02
people go to podcast to learn and also
00:07:04
there's a Vibe about podcasts where we
00:07:07
try and present people in their best
00:07:08
light and it's quite frankly it's just a
00:07:10
little bit more pleasant it's not as
00:07:12
antagonistic so IPO of the year I think
00:07:14
it's going to be and it's going to be
00:07:15
interesting one because it's probably
00:07:16
going to have the London exchange uh
00:07:18
Shen these models and disclosure I'm an
00:07:21
investor but if you look at Airbnb
00:07:24
versus Marriott it needs a third of the
00:07:26
employees with the same Revenue if you
00:07:28
look at Zara they doing about 400,000
00:07:30
per employees versus Shen said 2 million
00:07:33
per employee if you look at Uber versus
00:07:34
the car manufacturers these asset light
00:07:38
um all IP intensive versus capex
00:07:40
intensive companies Shen doesn't own a
00:07:42
single truck Factory warehouse store
00:07:45
it's all software driven and this year
00:07:47
it's bigger than um Amazon retail in
00:07:52
apparel and next year it's going to pass
00:07:53
Walmart to be the best Appel retailer in
00:07:55
the world and it's going public on the
00:07:56
London exchange I think for a lot of
00:07:59
reasons going to quote unquote be the
00:08:00
IPO of the year uh I think the
00:08:02
technology of the year is nuclear you
00:08:04
just saw Facebook basically put out an
00:08:07
RFP saying build us a nuclear power
00:08:09
plant the friction in AI is energy
00:08:11
requires 10 times the energy and people
00:08:13
have realized that it's one of the
00:08:15
safest most productive most reliable
00:08:17
sources of energy it's just been
00:08:18
terribly branded the last 20 or 30 years
00:08:21
but some of the biggest brains have
00:08:23
turned their massive Capital fire hoses
00:08:25
on nuclear 2025 is going to be the year
00:08:27
of nuclear that'll be the technology of
00:08:29
the year
00:08:30
and the substance of the year is
00:08:32
testosterone and that is this election
00:08:34
was supposed to be a referendum on
00:08:35
women's rights it wasn't it was a
00:08:37
referendum on how poorly young people
00:08:39
are doing specifically young males and I
00:08:41
think we're having a more honest and
00:08:43
open conversation around the attributes
00:08:45
around masculinity and the struggles of
00:08:46
young men I think that's come to the
00:08:48
four and um Trump going flying into the
00:08:52
manosphere was a direct um one of the
00:08:55
you know one of the fundamental reasons
00:08:56
he was able to win the election I think
00:08:58
if you look at the
00:09:00
if you look at the election who swung
00:09:01
most violently away from Blue to Red it
00:09:05
was people under the age of 30 and women
00:09:07
45 to 64 who I speculate are their
00:09:10
mothers uh I think I think mothers and
00:09:13
young people uh are really hit hard by
00:09:16
young people not doing as well and they
00:09:18
just don't have the luxury of thinking
00:09:19
about some of the other social issues
00:09:21
when their kids aren't doing well yeah
00:09:23
so once again the penis once again well
00:09:26
I what I would argue is I think people
00:09:27
are coming to the conclusion that women
00:09:29
will not continue to flourish nor will
00:09:31
the country flourish and on a much more
00:09:32
boring level I think the biggest lbos of
00:09:35
in history are going to happen in 2025
00:09:37
there's so much capital on the sidelines
00:09:39
and my favorite two Targets are Target
00:09:41
and Intel anything else that's all I got
00:09:43
car I think it's going to be a great
00:09:44
year for us I think it's going to be a
00:09:46
nice year um is there going to be
00:09:49
vacation for us together or some no you
00:09:51
don't want a vacation with me I don't
00:09:53
you got five kids you got like a 100
00:09:55
kids I don't want babies I have a
00:09:56
hundred kids I have a hundred of them
00:09:58
yeah you know some of elon's kids are
00:10:00
now my kids cuz they don't like them no
00:10:02
I'm kidding
