00:00:00
Congressman how should we refer to you
00:00:03
today well I prefer Dean but you
00:00:06
know let's go go with that Mr Phillips
00:00:09
and just I'm I'm asking people to be
00:00:10
keen on Dean so I might as well run with
00:00:12
it oh go well you know what I'm a big
00:00:14
supporter of the dean machine already oh
00:00:16
you know about the dean machine with
00:00:18
this gelato I'm I'm all up on the dean
00:00:20
Machine by the way I bought an old
00:00:22
International Harvester Metro van for
00:00:23
Tes when we did activations like South
00:00:25
by Southwest and I used to own one of
00:00:27
those by the way no you did I yeah I
00:00:29
bought for my Ranch great I love that
00:00:32
baby so I bought one for tente and I saw
00:00:34
how people just immediately were
00:00:36
attracted to it and fell in love with it
00:00:38
and I thought hey when I ran for
00:00:39
congress I'm going to do the same thing
00:00:40
so I created the government repair truck
00:00:43
are you driving around in this
00:00:44
International Harvester Of course you're
00:00:46
kidding yeah awesome I'll show you I'll
00:00:48
send you a picture of it it's cool it's
00:00:49
a awesome it's got a 1980 Chevy Chassis
00:00:51
under it but it's still the still the
00:00:53
basic uh nuts and bols Z we're referring
00:00:56
to a type of automobile you can ask one
00:00:58
of your three drivers about it David
00:00:59
don't worry David your driver can take
00:01:01
you in them ask your Miami driver he
00:01:03
probably owns some muscle cars I don't
00:01:04
think your La driver owns muscle cars
00:01:06
here we go let's start the
00:01:09
three let your winners
00:01:11
ride
00:01:16
Ravid and instead we open source it to
00:01:18
the fans and they've just gone crazy
00:01:20
with it queen
00:01:24
of hey everybody hey everybody Welcome
00:01:26
to the all-in podcast with us again to
00:01:29
today the dictator himself jamath ptia
00:01:32
the Rainman David Sachs and the Sultan
00:01:35
of science David Friedberg we are going
00:01:38
to continue our conversation series with
00:01:42
presidential candidates today our fourth
00:01:45
presidential candidate is on the program
00:01:47
Dean Phillips represents Minnesota's
00:01:49
thirdd district and he's about 25 years
00:01:53
younger than Trump and Biden at 54 years
00:01:56
old Dean before getting into politics I
00:01:59
understand you were the CEO of your
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family's Spirits business and you ran
00:02:03
talente gelato oh that pistachio flavor
00:02:07
amazing so welcome to the all-in podcast
00:02:10
meet the other besties and maybe you
00:02:11
could just start out by telling us why
00:02:14
you are running for president yeah well
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I'll tell you after being in the Vodka
00:02:18
business and the ice cream business and
00:02:20
actually the coffee business I think I
00:02:22
understand at least what Americans want
00:02:23
so that's a good start uh well I'll tell
00:02:25
you a little about my background why I'm
00:02:27
here I lost my dad in the Vietnam War uh
00:02:29
when I was just 6 months old he had grew
00:02:31
up with no money in St Paul Minnesota
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earned an RC scholarship uh on behalf of
00:02:36
the federal government of course uh to
00:02:38
pursue his education uh went to Vietnam
00:02:40
in 1968 just before I was born got to
00:02:43
see the US land on the moon and I think
00:02:46
regularly about how he looked up two
00:02:48
days before his helicopter crashed and
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he died looked up and saw Americans on
00:02:53
the moon and looked down and saw America
00:02:55
at its worst and literally that
00:02:57
experience in no small way is uh what
00:02:59
brings me to this day and uh I was six
00:03:03
months old uh my mom was 24 and widowed
00:03:05
and we moved in with my
00:03:06
great-grandparents for the first three
00:03:07
years of my life and I got lucky when I
00:03:10
was three my Mom married a wonderful
00:03:12
extraordinary man who adopted me Eddie
00:03:14
Phillips brought me into a family of
00:03:15
great blessings my grandmother became
00:03:17
Dear Abby and my aunt an Lander so I
00:03:19
grew up in a family of a lot of advice
00:03:22
and um I've lived on both sides of
00:03:24
advantage and I recognize it I remember
00:03:26
the day I turned uh 26 uh and I counted
00:03:30
the days that my father had lived my
00:03:32
birth father and I remember the day
00:03:34
after um I had lived as many days as him
00:03:37
uh my life changed forever and I I
00:03:40
became inspired uh joined our family
00:03:42
business after college uh ended up
00:03:44
running our our beverage business we
00:03:46
created Bader vodka which we sold to
00:03:48
lbmh and then got into the ice cream
00:03:50
business and did the same you guys
00:03:52
created beler yeah we my father and I
00:03:54
and our partner Steve Gil went on a trip
00:03:57
to Poland in 1993 oping to sell them
00:04:00
Philip schnaps which we made in
00:04:02
Minnesota we thought Eastern Europe was
00:04:04
ready for peppermint and Peach schnaps
00:04:06
and and we we we're touring distilleries
00:04:08
and we see both in in dutyfree in the
00:04:11
airport and in the distilleries the most
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beautiful packaging we had ever seen in
00:04:16
the spirits business now mind you this
00:04:17
is when absolute and stoy were like the
00:04:19
Pinnacle of luxury $15 you know average
00:04:22
now and my father immediately yeah sat
00:04:25
at a restaurant that night literally
00:04:27
this is a literal napkin story he a
00:04:29
napkin created a little Matrix and said
00:04:32
if stolen absolute are $15 and they're
00:04:35
the most premium in a fast growing
00:04:37
category why shouldn't there be a $25
00:04:39
vodka and why should this not be it so
00:04:41
we negotiated with the Polish government
00:04:44
our partner Tad dorda from Poland helped
00:04:46
us and we first obtained the
00:04:48
distribution rights and then when Poland
00:04:50
privatized their uh Spirits industry uh
00:04:52
we acquired The Distillery and the IP
00:04:55
and the rest was history and you know
00:04:57
cork finish beautiful bottle now we sold
00:04:59
it
00:05:00
uh we talked about the lowest common
00:05:01
denominator the pens we used to write
00:05:03
the orders the way we carried it made
00:05:05
all the difference in the world and then
00:05:06
we use that same template in ice cream
00:05:08
because what we found is in every Cate
00:05:11
every consumer product category in which
00:05:13
there are two main competitors Coke and
00:05:15
Pepsi sto the absolute Ben and& Jerry's
00:05:18
and hogendas they tend to fight to the
00:05:20
bottom lower pricing um you know frankly
00:05:24
um demeaning consumers and there's
00:05:26
always an opportunity to introduce
00:05:27
something a little bit more premium
00:05:30
little bit more special that's still an
00:05:32
affordable luxury and badier by the way
00:05:34
was built by Jay-Z I can tell you that
00:05:36
story if you want to hear it it's an
00:05:37
extraordinary one yeah yeah tell that
00:05:39
story too yeah so so far you're you're
00:05:41
our kind of candidate we're like EXA
00:05:43
yeah you just got four votes apparently
00:05:45
we're all looking at you like who is
00:05:47
this guy awesome so when people ask me
00:05:49
about my platform I'll say I'll be a
00:05:51
Storyteller about vodka I'm ready to
00:05:52
start popping bottles over here by the
00:05:54
way that's exactly what Jay-Z did sax
00:05:56
and I popped many a badier bottle in
00:05:59
when we had our run in La true or not
00:06:00
true sex it was a tough choice between
00:06:03
beler and grey goose oh I'll tell you
00:06:06
that story too by the way anyway so we
00:06:08
introduced beler and it and by the way
00:06:11
what what we learned in hindsight is
00:06:13
that our aperture was way too small you
00:06:15
know we were way too we we sold it by
00:06:17
the bottle not by the case we only went
00:06:18
to restaurants and bars at first not to
00:06:20
the big stores we wanted to be special
00:06:23
and we completely underestimated the
00:06:24
size of what this category could be
00:06:26
Sydney Frank who introduced Grey Goose
00:06:28
took a much bigger appr
00:06:30
anyway so I'm sitting at home getting
00:06:31
ready for work one day I have MTV on and
00:06:34
it's probably a year after we introduced
00:06:36
beler it's doing well but not not big
00:06:39
this is like mid90s yeah this I can't
00:06:41
remember the year chamath it's probably
00:06:43
you know
00:06:43
95 yeah 9 thereabouts I'm watching MTV I
00:06:47
see a Jay-Z video and it is all badier
00:06:51
it's in the fridge he's holding it there
00:06:53
people dancing he's pouring it on them
00:06:55
and I froze called my dad immediately
00:06:58
who of course didn't have MTV on and and
00:07:02
I said you got to turn it on he couldn't
00:07:03
find the channel I'm like hey Dad you
00:07:04
know MTV repeats the same videos you
00:07:06
know five 10 times a day so we got to
00:07:08
the office and sure enough we had the TV
00:07:10
on it came back on the whole company
00:07:12
gathered at that time we were probably
00:07:14
10 people and we gathered around the TV
00:07:16
and watched this video and I'm telling
00:07:18
you guys within two weeks the brand
00:07:20
completely popped and my dad Jay-Z ended
00:07:23
up calling my father uh they had a uh
00:07:26
dinner in New York City uh memorable one
00:07:30
for both actually he ended up
00:07:31
introducing a vodka some years later
00:07:33
called Armadale uh right and it failed
00:07:35
miserably but it was one of the first
00:07:37
times that I think in this new culture
00:07:40
of influencers and celebrity endorsers
00:07:42
that that magic happened he almost
00:07:44
literally made beler so that's the story
00:07:47
did you guys sign him to a deal and pay
00:07:49
him money or No No in fact we talked
00:07:51
about that and the coure so this is the
00:07:53
brand foundation of the brand house was
00:07:55
authenticity we didn't do a damn thing
00:07:58
that had anything to do with anything
00:08:00
that wasn't true the makers of it the
00:08:02
the product itself we didn't we didn't
00:08:04
pay people to talk about it unlike
00:08:06
Sydney Frank with grey goose so we chose
00:08:09
not to uh it was all natural and then
00:08:11
here's the other cool thing and this is
00:08:13
how my campaign's going to work we sent
00:08:15
200 bottles in very special beautiful
00:08:17
boxes to 200 influencers we we believe
00:08:21
that if we could simply seed the brand
00:08:23
with 200 people all around the us that
00:08:25
they could be the content makers and The
00:08:27
Advocates the ambassadors in fact
00:08:29
one of them went to this guy right
00:08:30
behind me Bill Clinton and Robert dairo
00:08:34
another example Robert Redford you know
00:08:36
leaders of industry and actors and and
00:08:38
uh and the like Robert dairo gets one of
00:08:41
these things and there's a note inside
00:08:43
with a picture of the distiller bogdon
00:08:45
zensky it said watch page three the
00:08:47
Tiffany section I'm sorry the Tiffany
00:08:49
location of the Wall Street Journal on
00:08:51
call it it was like Monday February 6th
00:08:54
only 200 people knew what was coming the
00:08:57
ad in the paper didn't show a bottle
00:08:59
anything it just said badier bogdon
00:09:02
wants to know how you like it so we
00:09:04
literally did an ad that kkash knows
00:09:06
back then probably $100,000 tiny little
00:09:08
top Corner ad that spoke to 200 people
00:09:11
in the United States of America that had
00:09:12
no idea nobody else knew what it was
00:09:14
Robert dairo goes to the Beverly Hills
00:09:17
Hotel or the peninsula I can't remember
00:09:19
orders a beler martini soon thereafter
00:09:21
the Barm man says Mr dairo we have
00:09:23
absolute we have stoie I don't have that
00:09:24
brand and he says I don't think you
00:09:26
heard me I want a bellor martini so the
00:09:28
bar man sends like the bar back to
00:09:31
whatever the the wine and spirit shop is
00:09:32
on Rodeo driver in bever Beverly Hills
00:09:35
and the guy he comes back with a bottle
00:09:37
and the entire bar watched this little
00:09:40
episode and I'm telling you once again
00:09:42
within a week that store was selling
00:09:44
through beler like it was water so these
00:09:46
little moments where you identify the
00:09:48
right people and now mind you this is in
00:09:50
the analog era there was no internet
00:09:52
there was no social media this was
00:09:53
people simply talking to people so we
00:09:56
sold beler to lvmh and then we looked at
00:09:58
the I ice cream category sa Ben and
00:10:00
Jerry's doing the same thing if you can
00:10:02
tell us about that what is it like to
00:10:03
negotiate against lbmh and Bernard Arno
00:10:06
and why do you sell it when it's working
00:10:08
I guess maybe is a question you know
00:10:11
I'll tell you well this is not a story
00:10:13
I've shared with many
00:10:15
um they were very
00:10:18
disingenuous and uh it it deeply
00:10:20
troubles me to this day uh the way that
00:10:22
my father was treated uh the promises
00:10:25
that were made simply to get a deal done
00:10:27
and then not kept um I think is a
00:10:29
reflection on principle and I'll leave
00:10:30
it at that um a lesson learned uh in
00:10:34
fact rather than going through a
00:10:35
competitive process which I think any
00:10:38
Enterprise would do to maximize value of
00:10:40
a brand uh our family ethos was a little
00:10:43
different and um and I think we bit and
00:10:47
in hindsight it was a mistake um but
00:10:49
I'll leave it at that you learn less hey
00:10:51
you know what you learn lessons every
00:10:52
experience to this very day I'm learning
00:10:54
them every day on the campaign Trail too
00:10:56
uh that was one I would never make again
00:10:59
all right well you got the two David's
00:11:01
votes with the Vodka you got mine with
00:11:02
the gelato and if you launch a luxury
00:11:04
Fabric Brand or sweaters I think you're
00:11:06
going to get J on first I got some other
00:11:07
work to do for eight years so we we'll
00:11:09
do that afterwards I'll just wrap this
00:11:10
long story up so we introduced you know
00:11:12
tent obviously does well we sold it to
00:11:15
Unilever then I open a couple coffee
00:11:17
shops with my family in Minneapolis
00:11:19
thinking this would be kind of a fun
00:11:20
Folly and then we're watching the 2016
00:11:22
election uh at home uh I thought I would
00:11:25
wake up the next morning we'd have
00:11:26
Hillary Clinton as president not that
00:11:28
that would was thrilling to the world
00:11:29
but it would have been safe and lo and
00:11:31
behold um you know what happened and I
00:11:33
remember telling my family that night
00:11:34
like look give the guy a chance he's not
00:11:36
going to act like that in the White
00:11:38
House the presidency changes you it
00:11:39
humbles you it moderates you and my
00:11:42
family thought I was a you know I was a
00:11:44
joke and I woke up the next morning my
00:11:47
16-year-old was in her room crying my
00:11:49
18-year-old was a freshman at College we
00:11:51
facetimed her and she's crying and I sat
00:11:54
at The Breakfast Table guys and I
00:11:55
promised my daughters I would do
00:11:57
something I I raised them to be
00:11:59
participants not not
00:12:00
observers and I looked around at my
00:12:03
district I thought maybe I'll run for
00:12:05
Congress I looked around and uh I had
00:12:08
the district had not been won by a
00:12:10
Democrat since the 1958 election this is
00:12:12
now we're looking at the 2018 election
00:12:14
60 years and the man who had won uh won
00:12:17
his fourth term by 14 points and people
00:12:20
told me I was crazy you you're out of
00:12:22
your mind you're giving up a a good life
00:12:24
to run for misery and you'll never make
00:12:26
it and you'll embarrass yourself which
00:12:28
is why I did it and not only did we win
00:12:30
we won by 12 points we had fun we used
00:12:32
invitation not confrontation and I drove
00:12:35
that little van all around the district
00:12:36
to the most unhospitable Parts I open
00:12:38
the Service window I served coffee and I
00:12:41
sat I put two chairs out and people
00:12:43
would just come up and talk and I found
00:12:46
magic in just letting people share
00:12:49
what's on their mind they're so unheard
00:12:50
anyhow I get to well I can tell you now
00:12:52
I want to tell you why I'm doing it but
00:12:54
that's the story of where I came from
00:12:56
and why I'm doing this and look at the
00:12:57
end of the day I'm the one of those I
00:12:59
got lucky you know there's a lot of kids
00:13:00
who lost their dads in Vietnam who did
00:13:02
not have the magical moment that I had
00:13:04
to be adopted by an amazing father and
00:13:06
that was the difference for me it's my
00:13:08
job to make sure others get that same
00:13:09
chance simple as that before we jump
00:13:12
into the future about why you're running
00:13:14
and what you what you see for the
00:13:17
country talk about the years that you
00:13:19
spent in Congress what did You observe
00:13:22
there what what is it like dayto day and
00:13:24
and what do you think is working and
00:13:25
what isn't
00:13:27
working I I we had three hours I get
00:13:30
there jamath I get there the first week
00:13:32
of
00:13:33
2019 and like all of you that come from
00:13:35
organizational and Enterprise experience
00:13:37
I assume that Nancy Pelosi and Kevin
00:13:39
McCarthy would have a have a strategy to
00:13:42
introduce the new members of Congress
00:13:44
both Democrats and Republicans you know
00:13:46
get to know each other do a ropes course
00:13:47
you know and build some trust or
00:13:49
something and my goodness it was just
00:13:51
the opposite guys we were put on
00:13:53
separate buses going to different events
00:13:55
and I realized right away that they had
00:13:57
a systemic segregation strategy on day
00:14:00
one and me sincerely the two parties
00:14:04
this is I tell you what I've learned we
00:14:05
talk more about this the only people
00:14:08
that want to protect the status quo of
00:14:09
the duopoly and the political industrial
00:14:11
complex that just surrounds it all are
00:14:13
the two parties and it is destructive
00:14:15
and I will get into that but I recognize
00:14:17
right away all of my colleagues that the
00:14:20
leadership in both uh Democratic and
00:14:22
Republican side they wanted to keep us
00:14:24
separate they did not want to give us
00:14:26
education and
00:14:27
information uh and they wanted to keep
00:14:29
us so busy that we could not become
00:14:32
threats to their power
00:14:33
structure you you can imagine members of
00:14:35
Congress tend to be pretty ambitious
00:14:37
people and ultimately they were smart to
00:14:40
do that because uh they made members of
00:14:43
Congress they do to the state raise rais
00:14:45
money all week long 10,000 hours per
00:14:47
week is what senators and house members
00:14:50
spend raising money I've got a bill
00:14:52
actually that would preclude it from
00:14:54
8:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. because it's such
00:14:56
an unmitigated joke and disaster the
00:14:58
fact that in the United States that a
00:15:01
pack representing a special interest or
00:15:03
Corporation can hand a $5,000 check to a
00:15:07
member of Congress at a steakhous on
00:15:09
Wednesday evening and then that member
00:15:12
serves on a committee in which that
00:15:14
business or special interest has
00:15:15
business in front of the next day is the
00:15:18
most unbelievable form of legal
00:15:20
corruption you could possibly imagine so
00:15:23
that's one needless to say I resolved
00:15:25
right after that first week of
00:15:26
orientation that I would do it
00:15:27
differently uh befriended my Republican
00:15:29
colleagues my wife anise and I started
00:15:32
having bipartisan dinners at our house I
00:15:34
joined the problem solvers caucus I hope
00:15:36
you guys know about it it's the most
00:15:37
important small caucus in Congress we're
00:15:39
now 32 Democrats and 32 Republicans
00:15:43
committed to doing what we're supposed
00:15:44
to do get to know each other talk policy
00:15:47
and try to make a difference now we're
00:15:48
the workhorses not the show horses so
00:15:51
you don't know most of our names
00:15:52
including me uh but we were the ones
00:15:54
invited to the white house uh uh in in
00:15:57
like week three of our service I was one
00:15:59
of four Democrats there were four
00:16:00
Republicans that uh president Trump
00:16:02
invited to the Situation Room to make a
00:16:05
proposition to get us through the
00:16:06
shutdown which I can talk about that
00:16:08
bizarre hour of my life as well um and
00:16:11
that's how I resolved to do it now I'm
00:16:13
ranked depending on the the survey uh
00:16:15
number one number two number 10 uh most
00:16:18
bipartisan members of the entire uh US
00:16:20
Congress and including Governors uh and
00:16:23
and I vote relatively Progressive it's
00:16:25
not about just the votes it's about the
00:16:26
ethos it's about uh rep repan sponsored
00:16:29
bills that come from me it's about me
00:16:31
sponsoring Republican Le bills uh and
00:16:34
that's what makes me a little bit
00:16:34
different than I think just about every
00:16:36
member of Congress not to mention I
00:16:38
think I'm the only one that's willing to
00:16:39
torpedo a career so that the country
00:16:43
isn't torpedoed by this nonsense and
00:16:45
dysfunction um there's a lot more to
00:16:47
talk about but the it all starts with a
00:16:50
systematic segregation and a focus on
00:16:52
fighting each other instead of fighting
00:16:54
for each other I can talk about it all
00:16:55
day long let's start there Dean what
00:16:58
give us the assessment of what's
00:16:59
happening in the white house right now
00:17:01
before we talk about your candidacy just
00:17:02
like what what's going on well let me
00:17:06
just say I respect President Biden I
00:17:08
he's a man I've had in my house uh for
00:17:10
an event he's a man with whom I've flown
00:17:12
on Air Force One twice he did a
00:17:15
beautiful video for my daughter he
00:17:16
called my mother um I think he did a
00:17:19
fine job I think he was the only man
00:17:21
that could have defeated Donald Trump in
00:17:24
2020 and I have to say I think it's fair
00:17:27
to say too he's probably the only
00:17:28
Democrat who could and will lose to
00:17:30
Donald Trump in
00:17:31
2024 he's a human being uh he's now in
00:17:34
his 80s uh he is clearly um on the
00:17:38
decline he's not incompetent I believe
00:17:41
he's surrounded himself by competent
00:17:43
able principal people and I believe the
00:17:45
White House is running as a team as most
00:17:47
do uh but do I think that he will be in
00:17:50
a position to continue leading this
00:17:52
country in the future I do not I think
00:17:54
I'm joined by about 75% of the country
00:17:56
of the country in saying that I also
00:17:58
also believe the policies that we passed
00:17:59
for the most part are investments for
00:18:01
the future in infrastructure the chips
00:18:03
act I think is a very important bill
00:18:06
which by the way has National Security
00:18:07
implications as you guys know the
00:18:09
inflation reduction act a bizarre name
00:18:11
for a bill that's really a energy and
00:18:13
climate bill I think is is pretty good
00:18:15
legislation and I think he reconstituted
00:18:18
our allies around the world that had
00:18:19
been frayed to a point of great danger
00:18:21
uh during the Trump Administration so I
00:18:23
salute the past but this is really an
00:18:26
election about the future it's about a
00:18:27
gener change it's about creating you
00:18:30
know really a new American Century uh
00:18:32
that will be powered by systems
00:18:34
structures people technologies that I'm
00:18:37
just afraid that President Biden and
00:18:39
former president Trump can't even
00:18:41
comprehend let alone create thoughtful
00:18:43
policy to both nurture and also manage
00:18:46
and I think that's where we're at and I
00:18:48
want to I think we have wars overseas
00:18:51
that I think in no small part are caused
00:18:52
by a generation that is so focused on
00:18:56
techniques and tools of the past that
00:18:58
that they can't even dare look to
00:19:00
building peace for the future that's I
00:19:02
think why we have the Middle East still
00:19:03
going that's why Ukraine you know the
00:19:06
vice president has some ownership in
00:19:08
some of these issues that I'm afraid um
00:19:10
have to be exposed and they're the truth
00:19:12
and I'm happy to talk about them but
00:19:13
most of all I'll wrap it with this
00:19:15
affordability in the United States of
00:19:17
America is absolutely uh the most
00:19:20
challenging issue facing Americans they
00:19:22
don't believe that their government is
00:19:23
listening they don't believe the
00:19:25
president understands they don't believe
00:19:27
Congress is able to do anything about it
00:19:29
because we're so dysfunctional uh and
00:19:31
that's another mission that I'm on right
00:19:33
now to end this nonsense I'm going to
00:19:34
build a Team of Rivals I will have a
00:19:36
white house uh and a cabinet comprised
00:19:39
of both Democrats and Republicans the
00:19:41
most able leaders imaginable who have
00:19:43
run multibillion doll organizations in
00:19:45
some cases understand customer service
00:19:47
we'll employ zerob based budgeting to
00:19:49
the extent we can we will employ a
00:19:51
world-class consulting firm to look at
00:19:53
every single government program system
00:19:56
structure uh and um and Personnel to
00:20:00
identify ways to save money these are
00:20:01
things that this President and frankly
00:20:03
no president who doesn't have business
00:20:06
experience nonprofit leadership
00:20:08
experience and government experience
00:20:10
could possibly imagine because they're
00:20:11
so stuck in their siloed ways of
00:20:13
thinking he's been there for 50 years uh
00:20:16
and it's time for change I was two three
00:20:18
years old when he became a senator so
00:20:20
let's get specific on the issues and go
00:20:23
into foreign policy which is David Sax's
00:20:25
I think number one issue this election
00:20:27
course but first just to be clear on
00:20:29
Biden do you believe he's in cognitive
00:20:32
decline do the Democrats privately
00:20:34
believe he's in cognitive decline and to
00:20:36
what extent do you think he'd make it
00:20:38
through the next presidency or do you
00:20:40
think this is sort of a Ronald Reagan
00:20:41
situation where he might look back on it
00:20:42
and he's got some early onset of some
00:20:44
cognitive decline what do you personally
00:20:46
think and what do Democrats
00:20:48
think I don't want to impress upon
00:20:51
anybody or give you do the sense that I
00:20:53
think he has a form of Dementia or
00:20:55
Alzheimer's or significant cognitive
00:20:57
decline
00:20:59
um but anybody who pays attention can
00:21:01
see the change and I'm I'm not I'm not
00:21:03
you know people are saying that I'm
00:21:05
causing his problems I could risk his
00:21:07
you know reelection you know I'm not the
00:21:10
guy that has him losing to Trump
00:21:11
nationally down in five of six
00:21:13
Battleground States the lowest approval
00:21:14
ratings in presidential history almost
00:21:17
uh and I'm certainly not the guy uh that
00:21:20
has shown his you know his decline
00:21:23
that's on video that's on audio you see
00:21:25
it it's natural he's a human being for
00:21:27
goodness sakes all I'm doing you guys is
00:21:29
saying the quiet part out loud the only
00:21:32
one you ask the question do others talk
00:21:35
about this the question is is anybody
00:21:37
not talking about this of course they
00:21:40
are you guys they've really created an
00:21:41
opportunity for you because like you
00:21:43
said everyone's talking about this of
00:21:45
course but no one's willing to say it of
00:21:47
course what what has been the blowback
00:21:49
in the Democratic Party from your
00:21:51
declaring what do you think I'm not
00:21:54
being thrown flowers and parties let me
00:21:55
tell you that guys I'll tell you I I I I
00:21:59
think most would consider me an affable
00:22:01
friendly well-liked member of Congress I
00:22:03
know that that's my that's my ethos uh
00:22:06
my friends are still my friends I think
00:22:08
they're disappointed because this is not
00:22:10
what you do when you're a member of a
00:22:11
party you fall in line you shush up you
00:22:13
sit down you get in line and you do
00:22:16
nothing to upset the apple cart of
00:22:18
others who've been waiting in line
00:22:20
perhaps a little longer than you so you
00:22:22
can imagine uh the push back has been
00:22:24
strong the arrows sharp uh and the pain
00:22:27
quite significant but nothing compared
00:22:29
to the pain that Americans are feeling
00:22:31
right now and that's why I'm doing this
00:22:32
and I should also let you know I had no
00:22:34
intention of doing this a year ago I was
00:22:37
on a radio show and a host asked me if I
00:22:38
thought the President should run again
00:22:40
and I said of course not he implicitly
00:22:43
if not explicitly said he wouldd be a
00:22:44
transitional president kind of the
00:22:46
bridge most members of Congress thought
00:22:48
he was going to stand down that's why
00:22:50
that's why Nome and pritzker and uh
00:22:54
Whitmer and so many others were kind of
00:22:55
making their plans and I said and if he
00:22:59
doesn't pass the torch then we should
00:23:00
ensure at least that the stage has newer
00:23:03
generation candidates to uh give voters
00:23:06
a choice anyway months went by I started
00:23:08
seeing the polls change dramatically the
00:23:11
tenor and tone of constituent
00:23:12
discussions with me and every single one
00:23:14
of my colleagues was changing
00:23:15
graphically All The Independents
00:23:17
moderate Republicans that voted for the
00:23:19
president I think for the right reasons
00:23:21
were increasingly telling us that
00:23:23
they're not going to do it again they
00:23:24
may not vote for Trump but they're not
00:23:25
going to vote rather than vote for Biden
00:23:28
and over time uh it got to a point
00:23:31
actually guys where um I resigned from
00:23:33
the house leadership table because my
00:23:35
position was so in congruent with those
00:23:38
who were in positions to do something
00:23:40
about it uh that I didn't feel it was
00:23:43
appropriate for me to sit with them
00:23:44
anymore and I was really frustrated I
00:23:46
called Gretchen Whitmer I called JB
00:23:48
pritzker I made public calls to the
00:23:50
candidates whose names are better known
00:23:52
than me to jump in you know the water's
00:23:54
warm you guys it's a Democratic primary
00:23:56
that's what we do not only did those two
00:23:58
not take my calls which they would have
00:24:00
any other day they had their political
00:24:02
operatives take those calls and they
00:24:04
told me please don't use their
00:24:07
names that's the culture that's the
00:24:09
culture you guys that we're dealing with
00:24:11
you will be blackballed you will be
00:24:13
disenfranchised you will be let out the
00:24:15
door if you so much as even issue a word
00:24:20
that you might challenge a sitting
00:24:21
president of the United States this is
00:24:22
the United States of America it's
00:24:24
appalling anyhow I'm frustrated we saw
00:24:26
that we we saw that happened with RFK Jr
00:24:29
because he declared initially as a
00:24:31
Democrat and Biden wouldn't give him
00:24:33
Secret Service protection despite the
00:24:36
you know enormous personal safety risks
00:24:39
and threats he's actually same thing for
00:24:40
me by the way guys you can imagine yeah
00:24:43
and biggest line item in my budget right
00:24:46
now by the way is security the biggest
00:24:48
line item the second biggest line item
00:24:50
that's going to surpass that is getting
00:24:52
onto the
00:24:53
ballot right well that was the thing is
00:24:55
they wouldn't let they wouldn't let RFK
00:24:56
on the ballot debate him they just want
00:24:58
to pretend like he didn't exist and they
00:24:59
basically drove him out of the party so
00:25:01
now he's running as an independent do
00:25:03
you think you're going to be able to get
00:25:04
on the ballot as a Democrat on in these
00:25:06
primaries absolutely and we're making
00:25:08
those choices right now David because
00:25:10
first of all it's obscene I want to let
00:25:12
you all know that in a country that
00:25:14
Prides itself on being a democracy a
00:25:16
Democratic Republic I can't even tell
00:25:19
you how many states literally create
00:25:22
high barriers to entry to satisfy the
00:25:25
two parties to ensure that their corn
00:25:28
candidate has an advantage over anybody
00:25:31
else I'm talking about what the most
00:25:32
egregious ones give us an example of
00:25:34
what you have to do oh the mo the most
00:25:35
egregious are oftentimes the deepest
00:25:37
blue New York is is close to Impossible
00:25:41
when I say impossible how so explain it
00:25:42
to us like what you have to do yeah so
00:25:45
the reason I started in New Hampshire is
00:25:47
it has a 103 year old tradition of being
00:25:49
the first in the nation primary they
00:25:51
take this really seriously they're the
00:25:52
most engaged Americans in the country
00:25:54
they have a process they you know we
00:25:56
walk through the snow we answer their
00:25:58
questions and you also all all you need
00:26:00
is a $1,000 check you got to be 35 years
00:26:03
old you got to be born in the United
00:26:05
States of America and you too can become
00:26:08
a candidate for president of the United
00:26:09
States that's what I did they have the
00:26:11
most beautiful ritual in the state house
00:26:13
in conquered New Hampshire that is worth
00:26:15
going to one time just to see the
00:26:17
Majesty of filing for president of the
00:26:19
United States so there are 21 of us on
00:26:21
the Democratic side of the ballot
00:26:23
because that's how it should be take
00:26:25
take a state like Virginia wa wait hold
00:26:27
on there's 21 people running for the
00:26:29
Democratic but that's incredible I had
00:26:31
no idea yeah chamat 21 uh in Maran
00:26:34
Williamson and I are the best known of
00:26:37
those 21 because the president of the
00:26:39
United States
00:26:41
chose not to so that's how you have it
00:26:44
you ask about other states though uh New
00:26:46
York Virginia uh $450 to
00:26:50
$500,000 to pay consulting firms to pay
00:26:54
people $25 $26 per signature to just sit
00:26:58
outside and just say hey can we get your
00:27:00
signature to get this guy in a ballot
00:27:02
not it's not Grassroots it's not old
00:27:04
school caucusing democracy it is pay to
00:27:07
play and we would we would need we would
00:27:09
need a well we're going to have to raise
00:27:11
uh probably six yeah maybe I'm sorry
00:27:14
maybe maybe maybe less than that maybe
00:27:15
$5 million we have a staff of three
00:27:18
people right now and legal counsel just
00:27:21
to get my name on a primary ballot it's
00:27:24
absurd Marian Williamson you know she
00:27:27
she's not going to be able to RFK as a
00:27:29
as an independent by the way I think he
00:27:31
should be I I'm not someone who I'm
00:27:33
concerned about some of his positions
00:27:35
but I think he should be able to get on
00:27:36
the ballot it's you guys it's absurd
00:27:39
it's obnoxious and what I've discovered
00:27:40
in the last three weeks is going to be
00:27:42
my mission after being president to fix
00:27:45
because it is going to destroy the
00:27:47
country from the inside and that is why
00:27:49
we have the kind of candidates we have
00:27:51
year after year after year and Americans
00:27:53
say they're and that's why we have
00:27:54
trumpism I like the
00:27:56
fact you know most people become
00:27:59
politicians as a career I've harped
00:28:01
against this for a while and so they
00:28:04
have everything to lose if they stand up
00:28:06
against the party and they stand up
00:28:08
against the political establishment
00:28:10
within which they're meant to operate
00:28:11
and therefore just a few people get to
00:28:13
make all the decisions and control all
00:28:15
the levers and everyone else is just a
00:28:17
marionette but and they stay there
00:28:19
forever Dave they stay there forever and
00:28:21
there's no term limits which is what we
00:28:22
need that's why we need them the fact
00:28:24
that you're self-made and you don't have
00:28:26
anything to lose mhm you can leave
00:28:28
Congress and you'll be fine you you
00:28:30
you're a citizen that can go back to
00:28:31
work and do what you do and you're doing
00:28:34
this as a service you're doing this
00:28:35
because of your interest in the country
00:28:36
it sounds like other not to say that
00:28:38
other folks don't but they're largely
00:28:40
going to be driven and unfortunately
00:28:42
adversely affected by the fact that they
00:28:44
have to fall within the way that the
00:28:46
game is played in order to operate and
00:28:48
will not stand up and say the things
00:28:50
that need to be said in order for us to
00:28:52
make progress and get out of these
00:28:53
situations but those are the perverse
00:28:55
incentives exactly I Comm you for doing
00:28:57
and I'm glad it's possible I think Jason
00:28:59
we should probably talk about the the
00:29:00
topic we have two topics that I think
00:29:03
all passionate here the first is far and
00:29:05
policy the second is the budget and are
00:29:08
out of control spending let's start with
00:29:09
Sachs you said you wanted hard questions
00:29:12
welcome to the PO
00:29:13
saaks let's bring it before we came on
00:29:15
you us and said hard questions let's go
00:29:17
please meet David saaks hey
00:29:19
David Dean you said a minute ago that
00:29:23
one of the reasons why the world's on
00:29:25
fire is because of the B
00:29:27
administration's handling of foreign
00:29:28
policies kind of led us to this point I
00:29:30
think there was a really good example of
00:29:31
this a week ago there was a new report
00:29:34
out by a former un assistant Secretary
00:29:37
General named Michael Vander schulenberg
00:29:39
who worked at the UN for 34 years he did
00:29:42
a detailed study and reconstruction of
00:29:44
what happened in uh March of 2022 so the
00:29:48
month after the war and what he
00:29:50
concluded is there was a
00:29:52
Bonafide deal on the table between
00:29:55
Russia and Ukraine where Putin was
00:29:57
willing to pull back and leave and leave
00:30:01
the territorial Integrity of Ukraine
00:30:04
intact if Ukraine would agree not to
00:30:06
become part of NATO and this is
00:30:07
something that's been discussed um there
00:30:09
have been many reports of this over the
00:30:11
last several months Ukrainian Prova had
00:30:13
a story about that but now there's yet
00:30:15
another confirmation that such a deal
00:30:17
was available and yet Boris Johnson and
00:30:20
Joe Biden said no we want to pressure
00:30:22
Putin not uh work out a peace deal with
00:30:25
him and so thanks to Western
00:30:28
intervention that deal never happened
00:30:31
now we're 20 months later and the
00:30:34
Ukrainian counter offensive has failed
00:30:35
it's been a fiasco the casualties have
00:30:37
been absolutely massive horrifying you
00:30:41
saw there was this article on Time
00:30:42
Magazine this new profile of zalinski
00:30:45
where his own AIDS and advisers say that
00:30:46
he's delusional he can't accept that
00:30:49
they're losing the war they furthermore
00:30:51
say that even if the US provides more
00:30:53
weapons more Aid they don't have enough
00:30:54
men they have enough soldiers to use
00:30:56
them things are going that badly I think
00:30:58
there's now a fear that Ukraine could
00:31:00
collapse in the next year even if we
00:31:02
provide more Aid so I guess you know I
00:31:05
know that early on in the war you
00:31:06
supported Biden's policy I'm wondering
00:31:09
have events on the ground now changed
00:31:11
your view at all how do you feel about
00:31:12
it today do you think it was a mistake
00:31:14
not to try and work out a peace deal in
00:31:17
those early months of the war and if you
00:31:19
were president what would you try and do
00:31:21
differently now to try and end this
00:31:23
thing well first of all I think we have
00:31:25
to back up to 2014 to talk about this
00:31:28
David um you know first of all I I I've
00:31:31
seen that reporting I I do not have
00:31:33
confirmation of the validity of that uh
00:31:36
and and and if I did I could talk about
00:31:38
it more directly but if that's the truth
00:31:40
uh I would first ask did that include
00:31:42
Crimea and secondly it is not the it's
00:31:45
not a United States decision about
00:31:47
whether or not Ukraine should agree to a
00:31:49
peace deal it is uh Ukraine's decision
00:31:51
plain and simple but I I do want to turn
00:31:53
back the clock a little bit because I
00:31:54
think this all kind of plays together
00:31:56
but by the way didn't it didn't includea
00:31:58
but zinsky was willing to go for that
00:32:00
deal and it was the West who intervene
00:32:03
and said no we want you to pressure
00:32:04
Putin and fight David like I said you
00:32:05
know I never speak to unless I can
00:32:07
verify that myself and I've not seen
00:32:10
that intelligence in the skiff I've not
00:32:12
seen that presented to me uh if and by
00:32:14
the way there are some times where I
00:32:15
don't know most times none of us know
00:32:18
everything uh if that is the case I
00:32:20
would absolutely answer this question
00:32:22
differently but based on what I do know
00:32:24
uh I want to turn back the clock to 2014
00:32:27
you know this is where foreign policy
00:32:29
matters you know President Obama was a
00:32:31
great aor I think a a inspirational
00:32:33
leader you know he came to the US
00:32:35
Presidency with only organizing State
00:32:38
Legislative and a couple or few years of
00:32:40
Senate experience uh as a very young man
00:32:43
and Joe Biden was his vice president and
00:32:46
when Vladimir Putin took Crimea uh
00:32:49
easily you know that set the tone for
00:32:51
what's going on right now and we have
00:32:54
not done a very good job of prevention
00:32:58
that's true in health care that is true
00:33:00
in poverty that is true in our foreign
00:33:02
policy which is by the way maybe what
00:33:04
happens when you spend 83 billion a year
00:33:06
on on uh diplomacy and 850 billion a
00:33:10
year on bombs and missiles not to
00:33:12
mention go back to Eisenhower in the
00:33:14
military-industrial complex David and
00:33:16
you all know this it does it controls a
00:33:19
lot of our policy because those who are
00:33:21
making great profit find ways to
00:33:23
influence those who open the piggy banks
00:33:26
I think the Crimea uh moment in 2014 the
00:33:29
writing was on the wall that was Putin's
00:33:31
test if I take an inch well maybe
00:33:33
they'll give me a mile and what happened
00:33:35
during the Biden presidency of course he
00:33:37
took the mile uh I think it has
00:33:39
implications now though David and all of
00:33:40
you you know if we do not do our best to
00:33:43
support Ukraine and defending I think it
00:33:46
doesn't just send a message to Putin a
00:33:49
postp Putin Russia which is going to be
00:33:50
a failed nation with a brain drain and
00:33:52
something we should talk about but also
00:33:54
sends a message to Iran North Korea and
00:33:56
and even China and I want to talk about
00:33:58
that too because I think we have a much
00:34:00
brighter future with them than most
00:34:01
people portray as it relates to Taiwan
00:34:04
and that's the sad truth is we get
00:34:05
ourselves into these situations that
00:34:08
then layer up the consequences by
00:34:11
withdrawing and Afghanistan was another
00:34:13
example of that so to answer your
00:34:14
question had there been a peace deal at
00:34:16
that point that simply would have and
00:34:18
the deal would have been will'll give
00:34:19
you your territory back in return for
00:34:22
not uh entering NATO who in their right
00:34:25
mind would say that was a bad deal
00:34:27
who in their right mind especially bis
00:34:29
Johnson well well by the way that's what
00:34:32
you get when you get people like well
00:34:34
I'm going to make this case as you guys
00:34:35
know for comprehensive new generation of
00:34:38
leaders all around the world in our
00:34:39
country and in others that are sick of
00:34:41
this nonsense sick of the Bloodshed sick
00:34:43
of enriching Enterprise at the expense
00:34:45
of human beings it happens here it
00:34:47
happens in Ukraine and Russia and it's
00:34:49
happening in the Middle East plain and
00:34:52
simple sax anything else on foreign
00:34:54
policy you want to go to packing half
00:34:57
now would be I think a shameful horrible
00:35:00
mistake the one thing I would argue
00:35:01
right now David is those who are most
00:35:04
likely going to be subject to Putin's
00:35:06
Terror the countries in Europe should be
00:35:09
carrying a much bigger bigger part of
00:35:11
this load you know we have
00:35:13
750 faces and installations Around the
00:35:16
World in 80 countries we are the most
00:35:18
dominant presence in world history of
00:35:20
any government and we spend more on our
00:35:23
military than the next I think 11
00:35:25
Nations combined for gas akes you know
00:35:28
and and if anyone thinks that a kinetic
00:35:30
risk to the United States is the most
00:35:32
likely harm that will be done us not
00:35:35
cyber or not social or not biological I
00:35:38
think you're out of your mind uh those
00:35:40
are the risks that I think are most
00:35:41
threatening that I think this President
00:35:43
does not quite understand and we have to
00:35:45
rec comprise and recommit to diplomacy
00:35:48
and defending ourselves against the most
00:35:50
important literal risks including
00:35:53
nuclear weapons that can be carried in a
00:35:55
backpack and debt ated in New York or
00:35:57
Tel Aviv or anywhere in the world and if
00:36:00
we don't start changing how we do things
00:36:03
we're not going to be ready and we are
00:36:05
just sitting still in dysfunction okay
00:36:08
I'm going to change it let's talk about
00:36:10
China for one second and I'll I'll give
00:36:12
it to you in two arcs Arc number one the
00:36:15
comments that President G made yesterday
00:36:18
which were very if you just heard them
00:36:21
or read them were very specific we have
00:36:24
zero desire to seek Chinese ofmany we
00:36:29
have zero desire to find a cold or hot
00:36:32
War which was but then there is what
00:36:35
wasn't said which is part of what you
00:36:37
said which is well okay maybe there's no
00:36:39
kinetic War but the Cyber risk is still
00:36:42
there and actually the psychological
00:36:45
War risk is there so two questions one
00:36:49
is how do you react to What president G
00:36:52
said last night and then the second is
00:36:54
how do you react to what's happening
00:36:56
with this Tick Tock Osama Bin Laden scop
00:36:59
thing that just seems to be frankly just
00:37:02
getting out of control here I agree well
00:37:05
let me say I was so pleased to see
00:37:07
President she's remarks um I think
00:37:10
President Biden responded by saying we
00:37:11
should trust but verify I think that's
00:37:13
appropriate I was troubled though when a
00:37:16
question was shouted out to President
00:37:17
Biden on his way out about um whether he
00:37:20
considered president she a dictator and
00:37:21
he said yes he's a dictator and I think
00:37:23
that may have undermined this entire um
00:37:26
ront which I think is is terribly
00:37:28
important you know words matter uh The
00:37:32
Playbook matters and the negligence or
00:37:36
ignorance of another culture as it
00:37:38
digests our words our actions our
00:37:41
intentions is very consequential and
00:37:44
unfortunately we see this pattern with
00:37:46
the president of doing what he did uh
00:37:48
today uh in using that term whether or
00:37:51
not it's really true or not there are
00:37:53
ways as we all know to simply not
00:37:56
comment because that is going to
00:37:57
undermine I think a very important
00:37:59
otherwise very promising outcome and you
00:38:02
know to your to your to your question um
00:38:06
I'm concerned that we have made China
00:38:09
perhaps into the very enemy that
00:38:10
ostensibly now our military inustrial
00:38:12
complex wants to defend us from which
00:38:15
happens time and time and time again
00:38:18
through our history and it concerns me
00:38:20
deeply we should be partnering with
00:38:22
China uh our our disagreements are real
00:38:25
I think they should be l ated uh and
00:38:28
bridged with diplomacy not destruction
00:38:31
uh and imagine what can be accomplished
00:38:33
in this 21st century world if two
00:38:35
Nations like ours uh recognize the
00:38:38
potential of spending Less on
00:38:40
destruction uh and more uh on human
00:38:43
beings you know it astounds me do you
00:38:46
think Tik Tock itself is a thre to the
00:38:49
United States you if you're a president
00:38:51
ban it or force them to divest and
00:38:53
remove the servers in China and the
00:38:54
algorithm from China Etc I'll make this
00:38:57
actually being used for scops I'll make
00:38:59
this really simple you know if we want
00:39:01
to change our Constitution and change
00:39:03
what we consider speech uh change how
00:39:06
the federal government or any uh
00:39:08
domestic government affects people's
00:39:11
rights to what they watch what they read
00:39:13
what they eat how they pray how they
00:39:14
think where they go with whom they
00:39:16
congregate you know what that's up to
00:39:18
Americans but I think to Target one app
00:39:21
is a huge mistake and my I have a very
00:39:24
simple solution hold every single
00:39:27
platform to the same standard uh
00:39:29
transparency uh via their algorithm have
00:39:33
an independent commission perhaps that
00:39:34
is charged and responsible with
00:39:36
assessing um and and holding those
00:39:39
platforms to account and if any of them
00:39:41
violate the terms that we pass into law
00:39:45
then they should be banned but to Target
00:39:47
one I think it's non have foreign
00:39:49
ownership rules for media Outlets yeah
00:39:51
so this has many more users and is much
00:39:54
more powerful with the algorithm so then
00:39:56
how would you respond to that sort of
00:39:59
counterargument I'm just going to say
00:40:00
this if we want to change our
00:40:02
constitution this is what the Supreme
00:40:04
Court I'm afraid it's going to say if we
00:40:05
start doing this then change the
00:40:07
Constitution that's what they said by
00:40:08
the way about uh women's Reproductive
00:40:10
Rights you know in the absence of
00:40:12
Congress doing anything in the absence
00:40:14
of that we're going to assess it the way
00:40:16
it it reads right now I don't think
00:40:18
that's necessarily really possible
00:40:20
without a significant Supreme Court
00:40:21
challenge my belief is yes is it a
00:40:23
threat yes it's a threat by the way
00:40:25
every social media plat form is a threat
00:40:28
when used by malign actors you should
00:40:31
force reciprocity if they if we allow
00:40:33
Tik Tok they allow Twitter Facebook
00:40:35
Instagram I think that's that's the kind
00:40:37
of thinking Jason I like in fact
00:40:39
reciprocity as it relates to IP
00:40:41
enforcement of Ip uh of of theft uh of
00:40:44
trade this is to that's you just hit the
00:40:46
nail in the head reciprocity you know
00:40:49
let's let's let's be reciprocal in the
00:40:51
nature of a relationship if you're going
00:40:53
to ban our apps and our platforms or our
00:40:55
products or Our Brands well why this is
00:40:59
to me an opportunity for the Next
00:41:00
Generation to say this is nonsensical
00:41:03
you know if you're going to Su by the
00:41:04
way China you all know has sign they
00:41:07
have a they have a bubble they're facing
00:41:08
that will make ours in 2008 uh look like
00:41:11
a a gumball by comparison uh and that is
00:41:14
coming down the pipe I think that has a
00:41:16
lot to do with this kind of step towards
00:41:18
rosmont but yes reciprocity and to know
00:41:22
that Facebook is not allowed uh yeah
00:41:24
perfect example but in the United States
00:41:26
doesn't change my uh contention that we
00:41:28
should set the same standard for every
00:41:31
platform every every media entity
00:41:33
whatever it might be hold them
00:41:35
accountable and if they don't qualify or
00:41:36
perform then they're banned give us your
00:41:38
just maybe societal then commentary on
00:41:43
the number of people on Tik Tok right
00:41:45
now it's sickening advocating
00:41:48
for I don't even know what you want to
00:41:50
call it I guess reading and
00:41:53
sympathizing it's first of all I'm sure
00:41:56
guys do too I I I look at Tik Tok I
00:41:58
consume as much media as many platforms
00:42:00
as possible so I understand why some of
00:42:03
the nonsensical perspectives are being
00:42:06
shared with me by so many people right
00:42:07
now so I get it your fun but back to the
00:42:10
fundamental question what do we do this
00:42:12
has been by the way an age-old issue
00:42:14
since our very founding it used to be
00:42:15
anonymous pamphlets that would spread
00:42:17
misinformation or condemnation and and
00:42:19
fire people up now it's just instantly
00:42:22
available it doesn't matter if you have
00:42:23
a printer you can push a button and yes
00:42:26
am I concerned of course I am I'm the
00:42:28
fact that when I'm spending time on
00:42:29
college campuses right now and listening
00:42:33
uh to otherwise really well-educated
00:42:34
privileged kids saying things that are
00:42:38
so non-sensible so ignorant and so
00:42:40
shocking I know where it's coming from
00:42:42
uh so I understand the problem just like
00:42:44
all of you I think this question is what
00:42:46
do you do about it and all I'm saying is
00:42:47
we should have the same standard for
00:42:49
every platform because the same issue is
00:42:51
on every platform that is my only what
00:42:54
do you think about you're about to say
00:42:55
this but what do you think about what
00:42:56
Nikki Haley suggested I you know I I was
00:42:59
shocked that people um maybe just frame
00:43:02
for the for the listeners who don't know
00:43:04
what she said so Nikki Haley and I tell
00:43:05
I asked Mark Zuckerberg this one so too
00:43:07
I'll tell you Nikki Haley proposed uh
00:43:09
that every platform every social media
00:43:12
platform have verified accounts no more
00:43:14
Anonymous accounts and she got ripped
00:43:18
got ripped you know I understand this is
00:43:21
this is It's a reasonable argument to
00:43:22
have but I got to tell you I'm surprised
00:43:24
that that something that seemed somewhat
00:43:26
reasonable to people who are paying
00:43:27
attention would have such a uh such a
00:43:30
response that she actually retracted it
00:43:32
I'm not proposing it I'm just saying
00:43:34
that I think we should be throwing ideas
00:43:36
on the table and I know from experience
00:43:37
just like you guys when you hide behind
00:43:39
a fake name you can be not just a jerk
00:43:42
to someone you can be downright
00:43:43
dangerous when your name's attached to
00:43:45
it you behave in a very different manner
00:43:47
not a mention when you're face to face
00:43:49
so um I don't think that was as absurd
00:43:51
as uh people considered it I asked Mark
00:43:53
Zuckerberg after a financial services
00:43:55
hearing a couple coup years ago you know
00:43:57
why why doesn't Facebook just verify
00:43:59
accounts make this so much easier to
00:44:00
hold people accountable and um have
00:44:03
higher standards of um accountability
00:44:05
and he said it would be a competitive
00:44:08
disadvantage of course it is if he only
00:44:10
had to do it yeah and this has been
00:44:11
tested Korea had their version of this
00:44:15
in order to sign up in Korea for their
00:44:17
social networks or isps you had to use
00:44:19
your Social Security num sure that makes
00:44:21
sense and the other thing guys is you
00:44:22
know that you know if you write a a
00:44:23
letter to the editor of most major
00:44:25
newspapers you have to you have to
00:44:27
attach your name to it it has to be
00:44:28
verified it's this I I just think it's a
00:44:32
conversation that we should be having
00:44:34
and by the way you know it might be time
00:44:35
to read Future Shock Again by Alvin
00:44:37
Toffler who predicted so much of this
00:44:39
mess in which we find ourselves the
00:44:41
incapacity of human beings to adapt to
00:44:44
such rapid technological change which by
00:44:47
the way you know you on this you just a
00:44:50
handful of you on this um on this
00:44:53
podcast have more expertise than the
00:44:56
entire United States Senate and Congress
00:44:59
combined as it relates to the issues
00:45:00
we're talking about on tech there is no
00:45:03
capacity no competency so on whom do we
00:45:06
rely the very lobbyists being paid by
00:45:08
the very Enterprises that so easily can
00:45:11
set the standards right if there aren't
00:45:13
people of better capacity and only 11
00:45:16
members of Congress have an engineering
00:45:17
degree only 11 by the way I was I was on
00:45:20
uh Kevin McCarthy invited me to join his
00:45:23
AI cabinet uh which just it was a few
00:45:26
four Democrats about four Republicans we
00:45:28
had our first meeting and started making
00:45:29
plans right before he was deposed and
00:45:32
now I don't know anything if anything's
00:45:34
going on in that respect where do you
00:45:36
stand on the spectrum of decorum online
00:45:40
on one end and free speech on the other
00:45:42
where the absolutist would say
00:45:44
absolutely not verified accounts as a
00:45:46
non-starter because it just
00:45:48
fundamentally undermines the First
00:45:49
Amendment and this other thing which is
00:45:52
more organized deorum jamath it's it I
00:45:55
think that's the issue of our day maybe
00:45:57
the most important one it's true both
00:45:58
online it's also true in our Congress
00:46:00
right now where is that intersection
00:46:01
between debate and Discord and um and
00:46:05
comprehensive division um I I don't have
00:46:09
the good answer for it right now is the
00:46:10
truth and I'm I'm afraid that if you
00:46:12
interpret our constitution um you know
00:46:14
Free Speech has to be met with more Free
00:46:16
Speech but I'll tell you but that also
00:46:19
will conflict and increasingly is uh
00:46:22
with the right to pursue happiness I
00:46:24
mean that's just true I mean I it it's a
00:46:27
it's a it's the most complicated issue
00:46:29
in our era would I like to see our kids
00:46:31
safer our mental health and emotional
00:46:33
health improve and the division reduced
00:46:36
and misinformation and disinformation um
00:46:39
rectified of course because I do think
00:46:41
would you put a minimum age on use of
00:46:42
social networks you have kids would you
00:46:44
make it 15 16 years old I think it would
00:46:46
be healthier look we we have minimum age
00:46:48
for alcohol that's you know that's older
00:46:51
than you have to be to fight in a war
00:46:53
for God's sakes it's ridiculous you you
00:46:56
we have cannabis is cannabis is still
00:46:57
banned at the federal the hypocrisy of
00:46:59
the federal government is also what I'm
00:47:01
running against right now so Jason I
00:47:03
think that is a good idea you know this
00:47:05
and I've had daughters that grew up in
00:47:07
the social media era it is one of the
00:47:09
most destructive it is far it is as
00:47:11
destructive as I think drug consumption
00:47:13
to adolescent Health as anything else so
00:47:16
to answer your question I think that's a
00:47:17
perfectly legal B perfectly reasonable
00:47:20
and you can't just entrust parents to do
00:47:22
it because Johnny's parents will allow
00:47:24
him to have the phone and the apps you
00:47:25
know and jills won't and they can't
00:47:28
there has to be I think there has to be
00:47:30
we do that for a lot of other things and
00:47:31
I think we should talk about at what age
00:47:33
any of this is reasonable but absolutely
00:47:35
I think that's not unreasonable I want
00:47:37
kids to be safe just like you guys and
00:47:38
so does sounds like driving a car is a
00:47:40
good bench for 15 16 17 years old yeah
00:47:42
we should also allow kids to learn how
00:47:43
to drink before they learn how to drive
00:47:45
we're the only country that does it like
00:47:46
this you know drive for five years until
00:47:49
you legally can drink so when you have
00:47:50
your first drink you don't even know
00:47:51
what it's going to do to you you know
00:47:52
it's it's absurd fre um I know we're
00:47:55
going to talk about about spending in a
00:47:56
second but just before we get away from
00:47:58
foreign policy I think it's important
00:48:01
that we ask what would be your goals
00:48:04
with respect to conflict in the Middle
00:48:05
East what's the strategy you'd employ to
00:48:08
achieve those goals and who are the
00:48:09
people that you'd surround yourself with
00:48:11
well I'll tell you you know my strategy
00:48:12
is quite simple it's peace around the
00:48:14
world and it's Prosperity at home uh
00:48:16
plain and simple and and I can build I
00:48:18
can put the legs of that stool together
00:48:20
for you uh as quickly as I I possibly
00:48:22
can but let's talk about the Middle East
00:48:24
you know I'm 54 years old President
00:48:27
Biden has been in the US Senate or in
00:48:29
the white house for 50 years uh none of
00:48:31
us on this podcast have live through
00:48:34
anything but Bloodshed uh reciprocal
00:48:37
misery between Palestinians and Israelis
00:48:39
this cycle has continued for decades
00:48:42
I've had enough I cannot stand the sight
00:48:44
uh of of babies being pulled from the
00:48:47
the wombs of mothers by Hamas in Israel
00:48:50
any more than I can watch babies being
00:48:52
destroyed by bombs and missiles in Gaza
00:48:55
and it's got to stop uh I am about to
00:48:58
issue a statement to that end uh that
00:49:00
says essentially Hamas must release all
00:49:03
of its hostages period of which there
00:49:05
are nine Americans guys nine Americans
00:49:08
are being held in Gaza by a terrorist
00:49:11
organization and as president I would be
00:49:13
making that my not my daily uh desire or
00:49:16
request my daily demand all hands on
00:49:19
deck these hostages must be released
00:49:21
immediately would you send in Special
00:49:22
Forces to collect them I would
00:49:24
absolutely it is the it is incumbent on
00:49:26
the president of the United States to
00:49:27
extract Americans being held against
00:49:29
their will by any foreign entity I don't
00:49:31
know got to ask him but good luck asking
00:49:34
him because he doesn't do any press
00:49:35
conferences the goal for peace is is
00:49:37
reasonable but but be like maybe some
00:49:39
specifics around your your strategy so
00:49:41
let me yeah let me so okay so first at
00:49:43
the at the moment the hostages are
00:49:45
safely released there should be a
00:49:47
ceasefire period and at that very moment
00:49:50
there should be a multinational
00:49:51
peacekeeping Force sent into Gaza to
00:49:53
maintain security immediately when when
00:49:55
I say multinational the very Nations
00:49:58
that are connected to Gaza Arab Nations
00:49:59
have to be part of it not the United
00:50:01
States not Israel of course but a
00:50:03
significant Force there to keep the
00:50:05
peace immediately concurrently a
00:50:07
multinational Coalition designed to
00:50:09
eliminate Hamas by every nation in the
00:50:11
world that wants them eliminated which
00:50:13
frankly is most and then we have got to
00:50:16
invest again uh nations of the world
00:50:19
investing in a democratic Civil Society
00:50:22
infrastructure education facilities and
00:50:26
security so that a new generation of
00:50:28
Palestinian leaders can create a
00:50:30
circumstance whereby another Nation can
00:50:33
be created period and it's not going to
00:50:35
happen with Israel and Palestinians
00:50:37
trying to do this it has got to be
00:50:38
imposed it has got to be a coalition of
00:50:41
the Willing uh and then only then and
00:50:43
only then will we see the conditions for
00:50:46
hopefully elections for Palestinians for
00:50:48
the first time since 2006 17 years and
00:50:52
concurrently it is time for Israelis to
00:50:54
call in election to replace Benjamin
00:50:56
Netanyahu because he is absolutely part
00:51:00
of Israel's security problem I've looked
00:51:02
him in the eye I told him before this
00:51:04
happened earlier this year I've been
00:51:05
with him twice looked him in the eye I
00:51:07
said what you are doing is affecting the
00:51:10
relationship with the United States and
00:51:12
Israel and will absolutely affect
00:51:14
security moving forward I had no idea
00:51:16
what would be coming in October 7th but
00:51:18
the settlement policy the right-wing
00:51:20
government the distraction that the
00:51:23
judicial reform initiative has created
00:51:25
in that country is made the conditions
00:51:27
ripe and by the way having been in Riad
00:51:29
recently too you know it was really
00:51:32
getting close the Sai and Israel
00:51:34
normalizing and that was exactly why I I
00:51:37
believe whether implicit or explicit
00:51:39
Iran inspired Hamas to do this then and
00:51:41
by the way in the United States mark my
00:51:44
words there are our adversaries are
00:51:47
watching the dysfunction and distraction
00:51:49
right now with the same open eyes and we
00:51:53
have borders that are awfully easily to
00:51:55
get in and that's the truth and I'm a
00:51:57
Democrat saying that I would do this
00:51:59
entirely differently can you actually
00:52:00
talk about the Border tell us what what
00:52:02
would you do there once again I've got a
00:52:04
lot of colleagues who make their
00:52:06
decisions by reading an article seeing a
00:52:09
tweet or seeing a Tik Tok uh I go you
00:52:12
know I've been to Israel in the Middle
00:52:14
East twice just in the last number of
00:52:15
months I've been to the southern border
00:52:17
twice I've seen with my own eyes it is
00:52:19
the most despicable embarrassing failure
00:52:22
of American policy I have ever seen uh I
00:52:25
have seen women walking across the Rio
00:52:28
Grand with babies in their arms who have
00:52:29
spent six or
00:52:31
$7,000 their whole life savings pay to
00:52:35
gangs and and coyotes to bring them
00:52:36
across the border I've seen the
00:52:39
extraordinary beauty and Grace with
00:52:41
which border patrol agents have looked
00:52:42
after these people I've seen babies who
00:52:44
were abandoned that were on 24-hour care
00:52:47
of border patrol agents who uh took as
00:52:49
good a care of these little kids as as
00:52:51
they would their own I saw people in
00:52:53
cages I saw the most archaic out ofd
00:52:56
inefficient ineffective ports of Entry I
00:52:59
saw lines of of of trailer trucks
00:53:03
probably two three miles long idling in
00:53:05
the hot hot weather waiting to get
00:53:07
across I saw a mile long of human beings
00:53:11
waiting to come into the country to do
00:53:13
their shopping or their job or their
00:53:15
education and it was horrifying and if
00:53:18
we think by the way we need much better
00:53:19
border security barriers Technologies uh
00:53:23
and facilities and by the way we also
00:53:25
needed at the northern border I'm a
00:53:26
border state in Minnesota people walk
00:53:28
across Farm fields in Manitoba into
00:53:30
Minnesota we don't know who they are
00:53:31
some of them get caught that's true but
00:53:34
I'll tell you guys if we think that we
00:53:36
can solve the problem at the border
00:53:38
that's the issue right there this
00:53:39
Administration and past ones just don't
00:53:42
get it we should be adjudicating Asylum
00:53:44
cases in countries of origin why make
00:53:47
these poor people take their life
00:53:48
savings that they have no then they have
00:53:49
no money they're set off in the streets
00:53:51
here they're supposed to come back to a
00:53:53
court uh two years from now let them
00:53:55
keep their money let's build dormitories
00:53:58
next to our consulates or our embassies
00:53:59
in the northern triangle countries
00:54:01
wherever migrants are coming create some
00:54:03
safety security there invest in local
00:54:05
economy so that there can be some
00:54:07
opportunity and adjudicate their cases
00:54:09
there if they qualify let's bring them
00:54:12
to America with six or 7,000 in their
00:54:15
pocket so they can start a nice New Life
00:54:17
and pursue the American dream and if
00:54:19
they don't they will be kept in their
00:54:21
countries of origin and of course we
00:54:22
have to work with Mexico as well but
00:54:24
this is not rocket science it's simple
00:54:26
problem solving and the fact that we
00:54:27
continue to do this stupid policy to
00:54:30
this day you guys is on the other side
00:54:32
of this talk about recruiting many
00:54:34
countries Canada New Zealand a lot of
00:54:36
the nordics have a point-based system
00:54:37
and they actively recruit Talent you're
00:54:40
an entrepreneur you've been CEO of
00:54:42
multiple companies it is an absolute
00:54:44
arduous pain to get talented people here
00:54:46
right now recruitment of talent in the
00:54:49
United States is bundled with the
00:54:50
southern border how would you decouple
00:54:52
that would you be in favor of a
00:54:53
pointbase system in recruitment of
00:54:55
talent to get more talented immigrants
00:54:58
in our country which by the way three of
00:54:59
the four besties here were not born in
00:55:01
the United States and which is an and
00:55:03
and by the way my four mothers and
00:55:04
forefathers came here for the same
00:55:05
reasons same reasons that every one of
00:55:07
those moms and dads is coming across the
00:55:09
Rio Grand so I to answer your question
00:55:11
directly Jason I think I think we can do
00:55:13
both I think we should have a
00:55:14
merit-based system to attract the best
00:55:15
and brightest and most talented I'm sure
00:55:17
all of you had came from Enterprises
00:55:19
that would afford benefits perhaps
00:55:21
education to people you would expect
00:55:23
them to actually stay at your Enterprise
00:55:25
for a number of years to kind of as a
00:55:26
payback we are right now the United
00:55:28
States is training some of the best and
00:55:30
brightest in the world not creating
00:55:32
opportunities to stay and of course
00:55:33
Canada is the beneficiary the Nordic
00:55:35
countries European countries you guys
00:55:36
know this this notion that we can't do
00:55:39
two things at once that we can't welcome
00:55:42
uh the most disadvantaged who simply
00:55:44
want to pursue an American Dream and
00:55:46
start at the very bottom and match that
00:55:48
with some of the best and brightest who
00:55:49
can actually start at the very top my
00:55:51
goodness why why does everything have to
00:55:53
be binary you guys black and white good
00:55:55
or bad yes or no it's nonsense before we
00:55:58
run out of time oh darn it's way too
00:56:00
short no no no for you we got a little I
00:56:03
got more hey I got time guys okay great
00:56:05
we really want to talk I got time yeah
00:56:07
freeberg and I are I think freeberg you
00:56:12
know moved me to his position on this
00:56:14
number one issue for this election
00:56:15
freeberg correct me if I'm wrong for you
00:56:17
is still our out of control spending
00:56:19
maybe you could te this up yeah I mean I
00:56:22
I've said this in the past I think the
00:56:24
US is facing
00:56:25
emergency in the sense that arithmetic
00:56:28
starts to play out that the cost of debt
00:56:30
spirals we can't accomplish any of the
00:56:32
other stuff we're talking about unless
00:56:33
we can figure this out we have $33
00:56:34
trillion of debt today the treasury
00:56:37
estimates it's going to grow to 47
00:56:39
trillion by 2033 just 10 years away y
00:56:42
one and a half trillion in deficit this
00:56:44
year trillion in debt interest expense
00:56:46
alone this year and a third of our debt
00:56:48
is coming up to be refinanced soon it's
00:56:50
going to get refinanced at 4 and a half%
00:56:52
interest rate instead of two two and a
00:56:53
half% it's sitting at today so the
00:56:55
interest will swell the deficit will
00:56:57
swell the debt will swell and we're
00:57:00
already taxing 18% of GDP as federal
00:57:03
revenue which a lot of economists have
00:57:05
shown you can only get to 20% at which
00:57:07
point economy starts to shrink there's I
00:57:10
think pretty good research on this some
00:57:11
would argue differently but I think
00:57:13
that's kind of a natural limit
00:57:15
so the only kind of response is what's
00:57:18
wrong with spending like why why do why
00:57:20
do we have the spending problem I guess
00:57:22
the question for you is what is causing
00:57:26
structurally the spending problem a lot
00:57:28
of people have said that this is late
00:57:30
stage Empire the failure of democracy
00:57:32
because everyone votes themselves all
00:57:33
the money eventually or is it a
00:57:36
politically oriented problem where folks
00:57:38
don't want to address the biggest line
00:57:40
items they don't want to hold programs
00:57:42
to account and what is the answer here
00:57:45
so to answer your question directly that
00:57:47
you ask what the cause is it's
00:57:48
incompetency and perverse
00:57:51
incentives period there is no political
00:57:54
there used to be a political reward for
00:57:56
conservatives who were focused on fiscal
00:57:58
responsibility because they would win
00:58:00
elections over tax and Spenders but that
00:58:03
party is long gone long gone there's no
00:58:06
reward that's why Trump added $7
00:58:08
trillion to the deficit and that's why
00:58:09
Biden will probably end you know add
00:58:11
about that much as well so uh by the way
00:58:14
I think I'm one of the only Democrats
00:58:15
who has both has been named by the
00:58:17
committee for a responsible federal
00:58:19
budget one of their fiscal Heroes as a
00:58:21
Democrat and also um I'm a ham Hamil I'm
00:58:25
sorry Hamilton Jefferson Award winner by
00:58:27
the US Chamber of Commerce and I'm also
00:58:29
pro-worker I this notion that you can't
00:58:31
be by the way Pro business and pro
00:58:33
worker that they're somehow mutually
00:58:34
exclusive uh that's BS they're they're
00:58:36
mutually mandatory but back to your
00:58:38
question 33 trillion in debt by the way
00:58:40
our economy can accommodate more that's
00:58:42
the sad truth the issue is our debt
00:58:44
service and nobody's talking about the
00:58:46
fact that it is going to go from the mid
00:58:48
400 billion a year to to your point Dave
00:58:50
with the higher interest rates probably
00:58:52
approaching a trillion maybe 840 over a
00:58:55
is a trilon one today it's going to be a
00:58:57
trillion I don't I I I would argue that
00:59:00
maybe I I we could have a little
00:59:02
argument about if it's there quite yet
00:59:03
but none the either way let's call it
00:59:05
let's call it a trillion that mean that
00:59:07
means literally that means literally we
00:59:09
are spending way more for the past than
00:59:12
we are investing in the future that
00:59:14
means we have literally no dollars left
00:59:16
for any discretionary spending every bit
00:59:18
of it is now consumed by Social Security
00:59:20
Medicare and our
00:59:22
military and and we're and on top of
00:59:25
that we've got people sleeping in on the
00:59:28
streets in every single town and city in
00:59:30
America we have kids going to school
00:59:32
hungry we have one of the most to me
00:59:35
failing Public School Systems in the
00:59:37
entire developed world we have a Health
00:59:39
Care system that is not healthare it's
00:59:41
sickcare a fee for service model that
00:59:43
should be capitated and and our outcomes
00:59:46
are mid-pack yeah and we have A2
00:59:48
trillion deficit and by the way no child
00:59:50
care no pre education my I can go on
00:59:53
down the list it's nonsens and we're
00:59:55
spending 2 trillion more so to answer
00:59:57
your question you you guys know the
00:59:59
answer here you we're a country with I
01:00:01
think 15 some million trillion dollars
01:00:04
150 some trillion dollars in total
01:00:07
United States household wealth where do
01:00:10
you cut let's start let's start by
01:00:11
getting into those specifics do you cut
01:00:14
entitlements do you cut military where
01:00:17
do you cut and how do you cut so here's
01:00:19
what I would do starting with Social
01:00:21
Security it Social Security you guys is
01:00:23
the most successful anti-poverty program
01:00:26
in world history uh and I believe it
01:00:30
would be not just a der elction of Duty
01:00:31
it would be counter to every American
01:00:33
principle uh if senior
01:00:36
citizens struggled by the way we don't
01:00:38
have a culture in America that takes
01:00:40
care of the elders like in most Asian
01:00:42
cultures and other uh wonderful cultures
01:00:44
in the world so absent that we have to
01:00:46
afford resources so two things as you
01:00:49
all know Social Security the trust fund
01:00:51
will uh face probably reductions in 25
01:00:54
about 25% cut Levels by 2033 based on
01:00:57
the current path two two easy things we
01:01:00
can do $160,000 year is the cap right
01:01:03
now I think roughly we should make that
01:01:05
250 that means it's a very regressive
01:01:08
tax if you're making 160 you're paying a
01:01:10
whole lot more of your income than
01:01:11
someone making $250 $300,000 a year not
01:01:14
to mention 3 million or 30 million so we
01:01:17
should raise the cap to 250 make sure
01:01:19
that fund at least is um solvent through
01:01:22
probably 2046 2047 and then I would do
01:01:25
something different for the first time
01:01:26
in American history for all the millions
01:01:28
of Americans who've done well uh don't
01:01:31
need their social security that wish to
01:01:33
become philanthropists I would create a
01:01:35
pool not that goes back to the treasury
01:01:38
a pool that would be automatically
01:01:40
redistributed to the lowest 5 or 10% of
01:01:43
all Social Security recipients in the
01:01:45
entire country and let's say it might be
01:01:47
a $500 boost it might be a $1,000 boost
01:01:50
a year for the for the most challenged
01:01:52
uh elderly Americans but but when 40% of
01:01:55
Americans can't afford a $400 car repair
01:01:58
or emergency expense you know that
01:02:01
literally not for this group but no to
01:02:03
your to your point I think it was the
01:02:05
fed or it was treasury that published a
01:02:07
study I was shocked by the actual number
01:02:09
of American millionaires that exist and
01:02:13
it it's countered to the narrative
01:02:14
because you would right if you if you
01:02:16
just read the headlines you think
01:02:18
America's an economic Despair and it's
01:02:20
not true and the wealth creation is
01:02:22
actually quite quite pervasive which is
01:02:24
a great feature of American capitalism
01:02:26
so to your point totally probably are a
01:02:28
lot of people who would be willing to
01:02:31
pay it forward to folks that didn't have
01:02:32
it if you gave them the choice it's just
01:02:34
not possible today so why shouldn't we
01:02:35
be a government that creates so just
01:02:37
shath if I could just say you know one
01:02:38
of my one of my perspectives and
01:02:41
intentions is to not necess by the way
01:02:44
we don't have to spend money to expose
01:02:46
young people who never get out of their
01:02:48
neighborhoods in many cities in this
01:02:49
country expose them to possibility you
01:02:52
know get them into factories into ad
01:02:54
agencies into Hightech centers show them
01:02:57
rockets and and Music Makers and artists
01:03:01
we don't we don't need to spend a whole
01:03:03
lot more money to Simply completely
01:03:06
change the path of Young Americans lives
01:03:08
not to mention old Americans lives and
01:03:10
that's just a perfect example of a
01:03:12
simple solution that costs zero and lets
01:03:15
Americans actually be Americans okay so
01:03:18
now now go to Medicare but I think I
01:03:21
know what you're going to say because
01:03:22
you mentioned it capitation but maybe
01:03:24
talked very quickly on that and then
01:03:25
military what what do you cut through
01:03:27
yeah so so quickly on Healthcare look
01:03:28
guys I I represent United Health Group
01:03:31
in my district tens of thousands of
01:03:34
motans many of them who live in my
01:03:35
district earn very handsome salaries
01:03:38
from United they've done some great work
01:03:40
uh in many ways but I have to tell you
01:03:42
uh since I've joined Congress in my
01:03:44
third term now uh you would be in tears
01:03:48
if you had to sit with the people that
01:03:49
I've sat with over so many occasions who
01:03:52
thought they had coverage whose son got
01:03:55
sick or whose you know whose mother
01:03:57
broke a leg or something and they
01:04:00
literally have gone bankrupt or take on
01:04:02
tens of thousands of dollars in medical
01:04:04
debt and they get surprise bills and
01:04:06
then they read in the paper that their
01:04:08
health insurer reported annual net
01:04:10
income of over $20
01:04:13
billion and I don't know how you guys
01:04:14
feel but I got to tell you you know I'm
01:04:16
a capitalist uh I'm also compassionate
01:04:19
and I can no longer reconcile that I
01:04:21
really can't there's a reason we're the
01:04:23
only nation in the world that does it
01:04:24
this way I think it's time to wait by
01:04:26
the way from Roosevelt to Truman to
01:04:28
Richard Nixon Richard Nixon proposed
01:04:31
universal health coverage and it was Ted
01:04:33
Kennedy that undermined it if you can
01:04:34
imagine that if we don't if
01:04:36
conservatives and progressives don't
01:04:38
come to the table and talk about how we
01:04:40
can deliver a national health insurance
01:04:42
program that is portable uh let's gig
01:04:45
economy participants do their thing that
01:04:47
people don't have to make choices about
01:04:48
where to work just because of the
01:04:50
healthcare I don't know why we wouldn't
01:04:52
talk about that and by the way I'm not
01:04:53
talking about the provision of care it's
01:04:55
really important because Fox News and
01:04:57
some Republicans have tried to say this
01:04:58
is a socialized solution uh-uh just the
01:05:01
coverage because the money is in the
01:05:02
system already between uh 3 four 5 6X
01:05:06
Pharma costs between 2X Health per capit
01:05:10
Health cost 10,000 per person compared
01:05:12
to any country in the world at five the
01:05:14
answer is I think right there in front
01:05:15
of us the money's in the system would
01:05:17
not require a tax increase I think we
01:05:19
could actually save substantial money
01:05:21
I'm working on a proposition right now I
01:05:23
would argue that the model is part of
01:05:25
the problem fee for service is
01:05:27
antithetical to what we need we need a
01:05:29
capitated model that gives an incentive
01:05:31
to the uh uh to the providers to keep
01:05:34
people out of the hospital at least try
01:05:37
at least try so that's the answer on
01:05:38
that uh and by the way you know right
01:05:41
now Medicare as you probably know it
01:05:42
cover I think 23% of the of the country
01:05:45
or no between Medicare and the VA which
01:05:47
are Single Payer systems 25% of
01:05:51
Americans right now are covered by a
01:05:52
single-payer system and by the way
01:05:54
it works better than the other system
01:05:57
Medicare recipients are pretty pleased
01:05:59
this would also be a huge benefit as a
01:06:01
capitalist running companies I mean how
01:06:03
much of your time was spent running your
01:06:05
companies dealing with Healthcare and
01:06:06
the dysfunction of employees staying at
01:06:08
companies because they couldn't awful
01:06:11
get Healthcare in another company what
01:06:12
about military team what would you do
01:06:13
that okay now military and this is where
01:06:16
how to answer your question very
01:06:17
directly once again nobody can tell you
01:06:20
that they can even begin to address our
01:06:22
fiscal challenges with without looking
01:06:25
at that ridiculous number approaching a
01:06:27
trillion dollars a year uh and by the
01:06:30
way the Pentagon has not passed an audit
01:06:33
they would in my Administration it would
01:06:36
there would be a top- down assessment of
01:06:38
every single program every single base
01:06:40
and facility every an explanation of why
01:06:43
we are in those 80 Nations and whether
01:06:45
or not we should be employing 21st
01:06:47
century strategies to keep our country
01:06:50
safe and I think one of the simplest
01:06:52
Solutions you guys is we should be
01:06:54
entrusting countries more approximate to
01:06:57
the problems to manage them doesn't mean
01:07:00
we're not a good Ally anymore it just
01:07:02
doesn't mean that we are in a position
01:07:03
any longer to be the policeman for the
01:07:06
entire world when we can barely take
01:07:08
damn care of our country
01:07:10
itself it's just so damn simple and I'm
01:07:13
frustrated by it because as someone who
01:07:14
lost his father in a completely
01:07:17
obnoxious and unnecessary War a guy that
01:07:19
I have on my phone right now digital
01:07:21
audio tapes that he used to send back
01:07:24
tapes to my mom where he says I've come
01:07:26
to the conclusion and he loved America
01:07:29
he did not like that war but he loved
01:07:31
America he said I believe the only
01:07:33
reason we're still here is because so
01:07:35
many people are making so much money he
01:07:38
saw it and the same thing is happening
01:07:40
to this day you guys that trillion
01:07:41
dollars that's going somewhere it's
01:07:44
going in people's pockets and I believe
01:07:45
we can cut that in I I'm not going to
01:07:47
make a proposition but I believe after a
01:07:49
comprehensive assessment that we can
01:07:51
save hundreds of billions of dollars
01:07:54
that can either be saved on the bottom
01:07:55
line or better yet actually invested in
01:07:58
human beings instead of the destruction
01:08:00
of them period would you zero based
01:08:02
budget the absolutely how why Chim I
01:08:06
I've had to go back to Washington twice
01:08:08
to vote on CRS continuing resolutions
01:08:11
yeah it is the dysfunction is absurd
01:08:14
there's not a there maybe five people
01:08:16
that can read a p&l or a balance sheet
01:08:17
in the whole damn Congress uh our
01:08:20
budgeting system is completely broken
01:08:22
and yes as president I would Dem and a
01:08:24
zerob based budgeting and and uh um uh
01:08:28
procedure and like I said a
01:08:30
comprehensive independent assessment of
01:08:33
every program and if it is not
01:08:35
generating a return or if it could be
01:08:37
outsourced to the private sector that
01:08:39
can deliver it for better value uh
01:08:41
that's how we should proceed and by the
01:08:43
way it may not be easy it may take time
01:08:45
to get done but why we don't try is
01:08:47
absurd and to answer your final question
01:08:49
if we don't uh and once foreign
01:08:52
investors no longer consider the United
01:08:53
States of America the safest place to
01:08:55
deploy Capital it's too late and I will
01:08:58
not certainly under my watch will not
01:09:00
let us get there but we've got to
01:09:02
recraft and and lastly can I say one
01:09:04
more thing quick on that jth please if
01:09:07
the only way that I think we can address
01:09:10
the biggest issue in the country which
01:09:11
is the growing disparity between those
01:09:15
who have wealth and income and those
01:09:17
that do not we can we're not a nation
01:09:19
that will redistribute I think we've
01:09:21
been not just unsuccessful we actually
01:09:23
created some of the problems we now find
01:09:24
ourselves in the way to do it is to
01:09:27
raise the foundation the same way it was
01:09:29
raised for me by a good a stroke of good
01:09:31
luck you know I was adopted by a dad who
01:09:33
gave me everything and who knows where I
01:09:36
would have been if that didn't happen I
01:09:38
want to do the same thing for everybody
01:09:41
have health care have great education
01:09:43
have child care make sure you have a
01:09:44
house a place to live if we give
01:09:46
everybody the same thing then we can be
01:09:49
a country that believes in
01:09:51
self-determination and talk about
01:09:53
education then briefly so if the
01:09:55
spectrum is the teachers union on one
01:09:57
end of the spectrum and VI ramaswami who
01:10:00
would dismantle the Department of
01:10:03
Education at the federal level and just
01:10:04
push all the responsibility to the
01:10:06
states with the voucher program he
01:10:08
talked about it here once where are you
01:10:10
and what what's your what's your
01:10:11
philosophy on the state of the education
01:10:13
I I I I would say I'm in the middle
01:10:15
because I think there's some TR I think
01:10:17
there's some worthiness to both of those
01:10:19
perspectives what would I do I would
01:10:21
fundamentally reinvent American public
01:10:23
education with the best and the
01:10:25
brightest with students with teachers
01:10:27
with families with the nonprofit sector
01:10:30
and the business sector because right
01:10:31
now business needs to participate in
01:10:33
21st century education to advise the
01:10:36
teachers and the administrators and the
01:10:38
curricula um designers what skills they
01:10:41
need they're not even part of the
01:10:43
conversation you guys I don't why you
01:10:45
think that why do you think that there
01:10:47
are certain places Progressive liberal
01:10:50
bastions if you will that have been the
01:10:52
first to dism things like stem and AP
01:10:55
classes why why is that happening I wish
01:10:57
I had a good I wish I had a good answer
01:10:59
for that it's appalling but but I do
01:11:01
have a good solution I'm sure like you
01:11:03
guys you all know this the single most
01:11:06
important determinant of a child's
01:11:08
success educationally is the quality of
01:11:10
their educator every single study says
01:11:12
the same thing the United States of
01:11:14
America right now we pay about 81% of
01:11:17
the per capita GDP uh to teachers for
01:11:20
for compensation the best performing
01:11:23
systems the world and there is a
01:11:24
correlation pay 120 130 sometimes 140
01:11:28
140% of their per capita GDP they make
01:11:30
teaching one of the most admired
01:11:33
elevated professions in their Nation
01:11:35
they identify great teachers when
01:11:37
they're still young and I think we
01:11:39
should be a nation that does the same
01:11:40
thing we're not attracting the best and
01:11:41
brightest any longer when Teach for
01:11:43
America teachers outperform teachers who
01:11:46
have tenure or been at it for 10 20 30
01:11:48
years does that not say the quality
01:11:50
matters it's not the school how it looks
01:11:53
um but anyway I would reinvent and the
01:11:55
other thing is this you and I'm sure
01:11:56
like you guys I remember a couple
01:11:58
teachers that made a huge difference in
01:11:59
my life and they're about 50 I could
01:12:01
barely remember at all they should all
01:12:03
be those two and then furthermore if you
01:12:06
think sitting in front of a Blackboard
01:12:08
uh is the way to teach kids in this day
01:12:09
and age no you got to get out of the
01:12:11
school you got to look at Scandinavian
01:12:13
countries and Asian countries and how
01:12:14
experiential learning uh learning
01:12:17
learning from the best most
01:12:18
extraordinary Educators in the world
01:12:20
through screens on occasion but to
01:12:22
experience you know AI is going to
01:12:24
fundamentally change employment as we
01:12:26
know it we have nobody in Washington
01:12:28
that gets it we need an Administration
01:12:31
in 20124 that does and begins to Simply
01:12:35
Rectify all these problems anticipating
01:12:37
the change that's coming this
01:12:39
Administration is not going to do it and
01:12:40
education should be redesigned can based
01:12:43
on the change we know is coming and I
01:12:46
don't have all the answers but I know a
01:12:48
lot of people out in California and
01:12:49
around the country and around the world
01:12:51
who could help
01:12:52
us AI or is it no no you I I think it
01:12:56
should be I think it should be very you
01:12:58
know Jason I would say right now it
01:12:59
should be very limited and and and this
01:13:02
is where back to the conversation about
01:13:04
um Anonymous accounts we do have to set
01:13:07
I think some standards and penalties for
01:13:09
nefarious use of AI if we don't do that
01:13:11
early and set the tone I think it will
01:13:13
get out of control so to me that's all
01:13:15
we should do right now uh and let it
01:13:18
grow let it expand uh let large
01:13:20
Enterprises and small come up with
01:13:22
extraordinary ways to save money by the
01:13:24
way AI is going to save extraordinary
01:13:27
sums of money for the federal government
01:13:28
and health care for businesses we can
01:13:31
anticipate how employment will change
01:13:33
and what jobs will be jobs of the future
01:13:36
uh but if we don't think about that now
01:13:38
we're going to do what Congress always
01:13:39
does get caught off guard have to come
01:13:41
in on a midnight ill-prepared with a
01:13:44
thousand page bill that nobody
01:13:46
understands because it was ritten by a
01:13:47
lobbyist that had skin in the game and
01:13:49
does not serve America and that maybe
01:13:51
wraps up this whole conversation yeah
01:13:53
I'm just not sure folks really
01:13:55
understand in Congress what they're
01:13:57
doing no this front like the difference
01:14:00
between foundational models and the
01:14:04
utilization of those models in an
01:14:07
endpoint are very different regimes to
01:14:10
think about regulation and they're not
01:14:13
even that that that framework isn't even
01:14:15
understood not at all we're not even
01:14:17
talking about regulating outcomes no or
01:14:21
actions we're talking about regulating
01:14:22
the infrastructure that could cause
01:14:25
various outcomes regulate I'm very I'm
01:14:29
very much against where this is all
01:14:30
evolved to and I think like some folks
01:14:32
kind of want to say hey this is a
01:14:33
regulatory capture moment but I want to
01:14:36
see someone in Congress stand up and
01:14:37
demonstrate an understanding first
01:14:40
before they can even have the right to
01:14:43
articulate you know a framework for
01:14:45
regulation well I can tell you what
01:14:47
there's one man one Don I want to shout
01:14:48
out this guy Don berer is a former US
01:14:51
ambassador Democrat from Virginia he
01:14:53
must be 70 he went back to college I
01:14:56
think John's Hopkins and just received
01:14:58
or is pursuing his degree in artificial
01:15:00
intelligence that's the kind of
01:15:02
Representative Isn't that cool you would
01:15:04
never know his name because he's not on
01:15:05
you know Fox Remis and BC scre screaming
01:15:08
at night but those are the kinds of
01:15:09
people that should be celebrated a lot
01:15:11
of my Republican colleagues that got
01:15:13
thrown out of Congress because they had
01:15:15
the audacity to support the Constitution
01:15:17
uh when Trump was um impeached the
01:15:20
second time you know those people I
01:15:21
celebrate can I I got to run but can I
01:15:23
tell one quick story to wrap my whole
01:15:25
story up and about what I want to try to
01:15:27
do you know at the at the end of the day
01:15:30
none of this occurs none of the
01:15:31
successes uh none of the policy ideas
01:15:34
none of the ideation occurs if we don't
01:15:35
repair uh and that means uh restoring
01:15:38
friendships our families our communities
01:15:41
and our country uh so I do a series back
01:15:43
home in Minnesota called Common Ground I
01:15:45
I get six Democrats and six Republicans
01:15:48
invited to a table we break bread we
01:15:50
introduce ourselves tell a little bit of
01:15:51
our life stories we talk about
01:15:53
Healthcare policy and we talk about
01:15:55
immigration policy which is where
01:15:56
everything I shared tonight comes from
01:15:58
both Democrats and Republicans and it's
01:16:00
a two-hour session facilitated by an
01:16:02
extraordinary group called braver Angels
01:16:05
uh I encourage you to look them up they
01:16:06
are remarkable uh doing this work all
01:16:09
around the country and at the end of
01:16:10
these sessions we go around the table
01:16:12
and each person at the table shares a
01:16:14
little bit about what they got out of
01:16:16
this experience and I had an episode not
01:16:18
long ago that sums up my whole mission
01:16:21
uh a young woman Emily looks across the
01:16:23
table at Dave and says Dave when you
01:16:25
drove up in your F-150 with the Trump
01:16:27
sticker on it I almost got back in my
01:16:29
car left the parking lot and drove away
01:16:31
I could not bear to go in the building
01:16:33
let alone sit at a table with you and
01:16:36
she said but I got to say I so loved
01:16:39
sitting here and you're a good guy and I
01:16:41
I'm I learned something goes around the
01:16:44
table comes to Dave and he looks at
01:16:45
Emily and says Emily when you drove up
01:16:47
in your Prius I wanted to run it
01:16:50
over and he says and he says but hey I
01:16:53
got to tell you Emily I've never met a
01:16:56
progressive as cool as you and I really
01:16:58
am glad I came to this today and at that
01:17:00
moment Emily and Dave stood up in front
01:17:03
of our table and they embraced and to
01:17:05
see a bleeding heart liberal and a died
01:17:07
in the wool Trumper do that probably was
01:17:12
the most
01:17:13
important moment in my entire career in
01:17:16
service if that is the only moment of
01:17:19
its kind in my career in service it
01:17:20
would have made it worthwhile and that
01:17:22
is exact
01:17:23
what I'm going to inspire as president
01:17:25
of the United States get Emily and Dave
01:17:28
to hug it out all they have to do is be
01:17:30
invited for a little dinner given some
01:17:33
space and place to recognize their
01:17:34
common cause and their common ground and
01:17:37
that's how we're going to do this I
01:17:38
don't see a candidate right now in the
01:17:39
ballot that has that intention has that
01:17:42
capacity uh or has that capability so I
01:17:45
just want to thank you guys and last
01:17:47
thing and just just yes or no can
01:17:49
everybody expect that you will be on the
01:17:51
ballot in every state I can't say I'm
01:17:53
going to be in the ballot in every state
01:17:54
jamaath because I don't think it's
01:17:56
possible between time and money uh I'm
01:17:58
going to have to make some choices and
01:18:00
that's just the sickening truth I will I
01:18:02
want to salute Bernie Sanders he
01:18:04
actually made it possible for a
01:18:06
candidate like me and probably future
01:18:07
candidates who are subject to this
01:18:09
nauseating system to actually still
01:18:12
compete and get to the convention and
01:18:14
maybe win because he depowered people
01:18:17
like me members of Congress that used to
01:18:20
have outsized uh votes uh dis
01:18:23
proportionately so versus voters and I
01:18:25
celebrate him because he was right I
01:18:28
used to think he was a sore loser Bernie
01:18:29
Sanders was absolutely right about a rig
01:18:32
system that is keeping people out of the
01:18:34
process keeping candidates out of the
01:18:36
process and keeping debate out of the
01:18:38
process so I'm going to be in the most
01:18:40
I'm going to be on most ballots uh I've
01:18:41
got to raise money and frankly I I hate
01:18:43
to be Shameless but the truth is if we
01:18:45
want to get on ballots I need support
01:18:48
and it's easy
01:18:49
de24 uh you know I I by the way I'm at
01:18:52
15% in New Hampshire after just 2 weeks
01:18:55
we thought it would take six if we were
01:18:56
lucky wow so people can throw 15 bucks
01:18:59
our way to get on ballots at de24 comom
01:19:02
and by the way Joe Biden
01:19:04
27% 73% of New Hampshire Democratic
01:19:08
voters do not want the sitting president
01:19:11
of the United States as their nominee
01:19:14
and mark my words we're going to bring
01:19:16
change thank you guys all right thank so
01:19:19
much thanks for the time peace thank you
01:19:21
very much keep the faith guys I'm love
01:19:23
to see you again see you later yeah a
01:19:24
great 90 minutes with Dean Phillips
01:19:26
everybody go to de24 if you want to
01:19:28
learn more all right besties I think
01:19:31
that was another epic discussion with
01:19:34
the presidential candidate what's your
01:19:37
thoughts chath you set up this interview
01:19:40
where does he stand in your likely votes
01:19:45
for president in 20124 where would you
01:19:48
rank him now Andrew Yang texted me like
01:19:50
last week and said would you guys do
01:19:52
this and I was really interested because
01:19:55
mostly I didn't know where he was coming
01:19:57
from to be totally
01:19:59
honest but I think his National
01:20:01
visibility is probably going to increase
01:20:03
a lot my reaction is
01:20:05
that he is who he says he is which is
01:20:08
like kind of down the middle he doesn't
01:20:10
take either extreme and he kind of takes
01:20:13
a moderate point of view and says
01:20:14
there's a balance of this and that that
01:20:16
can work and that's actually good that
01:20:19
he owns that as opposed to it being sort
01:20:21
of a consequence or a byproduct of not
01:20:23
getting what he wants he kind of like
01:20:24
that is where he
01:20:25
starts so I like that about him a lot I
01:20:28
thought he was really candid about what
01:20:30
doesn't work I really appreciate that
01:20:33
Honesty he's saying some of the right
01:20:36
things around capping Medicare zerob
01:20:39
based budgeting the
01:20:42
military I think all of those things
01:20:44
right I didn't like to be honest the
01:20:47
Free Speech part I thought that that was
01:20:50
I don't think you can have some kind of
01:20:51
registry of fa verified accounts or
01:20:53
something I just think that's a
01:20:54
non-starter for America it's a super
01:20:56
slippery
01:20:57
slope but in general I was
01:20:59
really
01:21:01
impressed and his uh War Stories as a
01:21:04
businessman were pretty cool pretty
01:21:07
awesome Sachs what what's your candidate
01:21:10
thoughts I'm obviously he's not part of
01:21:11
your political party but where do you
01:21:12
think his chances are versus Biden and
01:21:15
and how would you uh assess his
01:21:16
performance here
01:21:18
today I was pleasantly surprised that he
01:21:22
made the case for himself not just based
01:21:24
on Biden's age and the fact that he's
01:21:27
54 but he also I think took a number of
01:21:30
interesting policy stances that were a
01:21:32
little different than where Biden is he
01:21:34
did it on foreign policy he did it on
01:21:35
domestic policy so I think he took a
01:21:38
number of positions that were
01:21:41
refreshing and a big one I think relates
01:21:44
to his personal story where he talks
01:21:46
about how he lost his father in Vietnam
01:21:48
and that that war was kept going much
01:21:50
longer than it should have been because
01:21:52
basically the greed of the
01:21:53
military-industrial complex and he
01:21:55
didn't fully connect the dots all the
01:21:57
way to our present situation in Ukraine
01:22:00
but at least I think he would be
01:22:03
skeptical of the influence of the mic in
01:22:05
our politics what he said with respect
01:22:08
to Ukraine is well he said that it would
01:22:09
be shameful to abandon them now but he
01:22:11
also said that if it's true he wasn't
01:22:13
willing to concede it because he just
01:22:14
didn't know factually but if it's true
01:22:17
that we could have avoided the war by
01:22:19
taking NATO expansion off the table then
01:22:21
it would only be common sense to do that
01:22:24
I think that when the histories of this
01:22:25
are written it's going to be abundantly
01:22:26
clear that we could have done precisely
01:22:29
that so his difference of opinion with
01:22:32
me isn't in the logic it's just in what
01:22:36
in in what facts he knows to be true so
01:22:38
I actually thought that his position
01:22:41
there was
01:22:44
reasonable you know if it came down to a
01:22:47
choice between Dean Phillips as the
01:22:49
Democratic nominee and someone like
01:22:51
Nikki Haley as a republican nominee
01:22:53
I'd vote for Dean Phillips all day
01:22:55
long you know one other thing I like
01:22:57
about him is he is a business owner and
01:23:00
he presents as a Bill Clinton Democrat I
01:23:03
mean I think it's not an accident he's
01:23:04
got a picture of Bill Clinton on the
01:23:06
wall behind him you know he presents as
01:23:08
a that was exactly my takeaway too I
01:23:10
thought he present as a moderate
01:23:12
Democrat who's a little bit of a
01:23:13
throwback to the Democratic party of of
01:23:15
the 1990s if RFK Jr is trying to bring
01:23:19
back the Democratic party of say the
01:23:20
1960s the party of John F Kennedy and
01:23:23
Bobby Kennedy his father I think that
01:23:26
Dean Phillips is more trying to bring
01:23:27
back the Democratic party the 1990s yeah
01:23:30
both of them I think are ultimately very
01:23:31
out of step with where the Democratic
01:23:33
party is today but they're out of step
01:23:35
with it in ways that I like so he is a
01:23:38
candidate who I could support against a
01:23:41
republican who if we ended up getting a
01:23:43
sort of stale neocon type Republican
01:23:45
candidate I would take a Dean Phillips
01:23:46
all day long really wow great uh
01:23:49
freeberg your
01:23:50
thoughts I mean I I think I think if Joe
01:23:53
Biden runs he obviously doesn't stand a
01:23:57
chance just based on the structural
01:23:59
issues that he described if Joe Biden
01:24:02
doesn't run and drops out I think there
01:24:04
are probably a lot of other Democratic
01:24:05
candidates who are going to have deeper
01:24:07
pockets and more support from the party
01:24:09
and
01:24:11
more celebrity or what have you to get
01:24:15
themselves elected with respect to his
01:24:16
candidacy and whether it's a realistic
01:24:18
kind of campaign I I would probably
01:24:20
argue no but what I really like is the
01:24:23
fact that he is making the case I think
01:24:26
in a stronger way than even RFK Jr was
01:24:30
on how these incumbents and how the
01:24:32
incumbency in the party system prevents
01:24:35
uh new candidates from actually
01:24:37
participating in a true Democratic
01:24:38
process and it feels to me a lot like
01:24:41
what goes on in that sense is the
01:24:43
equivalent of like regulatory capture
01:24:45
but in politics it allows these Party
01:24:49
leaders and influencers which is a very
01:24:52
small group of people to decide who gets
01:24:54
to go on a ballot in a state to decide
01:24:56
who gets to be the nominee who decides
01:24:58
who gets to run for president the best
01:25:00
thing that he's doing is exposing A
01:25:01
system that Bernie Sanders calls rigged
01:25:04
and that clearly I think is very
01:25:06
inequitable and doesn't create a true
01:25:09
kind of democratic process so it's
01:25:10
really great to see him doing this work
01:25:12
and telling the story and I'm glad we
01:25:14
gave him the Forum to do that for just
01:25:16
that reason and if you were to have a
01:25:19
choice of him or Biden you'd pick him
01:25:22
yeah
01:25:22
if you had a choice of him or V on the
01:25:25
other side who' you pick no comment no
01:25:27
comment okay taking off my moderator hat
01:25:30
for a minute loved his business story I
01:25:31
agree with you chth really excited to
01:25:33
see somebody under the age of 80 run for
01:25:36
president and I thought there were
01:25:38
really two powerful moments there when
01:25:39
he said he would send special forces in
01:25:41
and then he was pretty aggressive in his
01:25:44
assessment of netanyahu's leadership and
01:25:47
overall he did engage with every single
01:25:49
issue and had interesting policy issues
01:25:51
no chath it seemed pretty uh pretty
01:25:54
engaging there so overall great job
01:25:56
everybody I think four for four on the
01:25:58
presidential candidates and just as a
01:25:59
programming note we have sent the first
01:26:01
podcasting K kits the First microphones
01:26:04
to four presidential candidates for
01:26:06
those of you counting at home what do
01:26:08
you think will happen post this chamath
01:26:11
V got a big bump RFK got a big bump what
01:26:13
do you think is gonna happen post this I
01:26:14
think I think that Dean Phillips is
01:26:16
going to pull really well the more that
01:26:17
people get to see him and I think New
01:26:20
Hampshire is set up well for Grassroots
01:26:21
politics like
01:26:23
this it will it will go over very well
01:26:26
the question I think
01:26:27
freeberg points is the is the key one
01:26:30
which is the party
01:26:33
infrastructure has tremendous antibodies
01:26:36
and if they decide to shut you out which
01:26:39
they did very strongly
01:26:42
and focally for RFK you don't have much
01:26:45
of a choice except to one is an
01:26:47
independent
01:26:48
so his candidacy is precarious not
01:26:51
because of the ability of him as a
01:26:53
candidate actually because I think it's
01:26:54
quite high or his likability which is
01:26:56
quite high or his electability as sack
01:26:58
said which against the right person is
01:27:00
very high this has all to do with the
01:27:03
antibodies of the
01:27:05
infrastructure just a quick programming
01:27:07
note Jal are you drinking a chocolate
01:27:09
milk I am drinking a Core Power
01:27:12
26 26 grams of protein I'm still on my
01:27:15
trying need more protein but I did have
01:27:17
a super gut bar earlier today for which
01:27:20
was quite nice thought that was a
01:27:22
chocolate milk this one's got 26 gram
01:27:24
it's a 42 G protein yeah I don't want to
01:27:25
give a free ad to Core Power but saxs in
01:27:27
addition to the antibodies that you know
01:27:29
kicked RFK out of the democratic party
01:27:32
the Press also blocked him CNN Etc
01:27:34
wouldn't let him on the right would let
01:27:36
him on all day long does this same
01:27:39
antibody kind of system exist on the
01:27:42
right at all or is the right more open
01:27:43
to multiple candidates just generally
01:27:45
speaking no I mean you look at
01:27:47
Republican debates and they are vigorous
01:27:50
debates there is real disagreement on
01:27:51
the right there there real debates on
01:27:52
the right and there's a real working out
01:27:56
of contested issues the Democratic Party
01:27:59
by and large is a machine it works in
01:28:01
lockstep that's why what Dean Phillips
01:28:04
is doing is so sacriligious I mean he is
01:28:07
pretty much ending his career as someone
01:28:11
who can just move up through the ranks
01:28:12
of the the Democratic
01:28:14
party maybe this will turn out in a way
01:28:17
where it gives him like a Leap Frog but
01:28:18
I don't think so I mean I think he's
01:28:20
basically signaling to the higher-ups in
01:28:23
the Democratic party that he's no longer
01:28:25
a candidate for advancement through the
01:28:28
regular course got it you know one
01:28:31
analogy is that the Democratic party is
01:28:33
like the Empire and the Republicans are
01:28:35
like the Rebel Alliance you know the the
01:28:39
Republican party is a bunch of Misfits
01:28:41
um it's a bunch of
01:28:43
discontents ew walks solos and solos or
01:28:47
whatever but the the Democratic party
01:28:49
Mar marches is that why the democ party
01:28:52
wins more is because they're in lock
01:28:53
step yeah they're much better
01:28:55
fundraisers they're more
01:28:57
disciplined they have their act together
01:28:59
right now I don't think this was always
01:29:01
the case but I think it's true right now
01:29:03
yeah okay uh well we we had a couple of
01:29:05
other issues we wanted to get to so I
01:29:07
think we can wrap there great job
01:29:09
everybody that was spectacular great job
01:29:10
getting the candidate jamath thank you
01:29:12
for that all right we have to touch on
01:29:13
what happened this week with the US and
01:29:15
China relations everybody knows XI
01:29:17
jingping was here in the Bay Area to
01:29:19
meet with Biden yelling well welcome she
01:29:22
uh at the plane maybe she's selling some
01:29:25
treasuries I don't know and that's what
01:29:26
the Press said yeah I mean like we're
01:29:30
like some sort of uh pisor company
01:29:32
that's selling us junk bonds I mean the
01:29:34
second that she gets off the plane she's
01:29:36
Hawking our shitty bonds listen
01:29:39
everybody's raising a fund right now you
01:29:40
know fundraising is hard did you guys
01:29:42
hear the commentary that the treasury
01:29:43
auction had a really tough tough moment
01:29:46
last week they had a big auction on what
01:29:48
was it 10 and 30-year bonds the 30-year
01:29:50
Bond bid was not really there
01:29:52
and so they're they got to get buyers in
01:29:54
the market they got to go get the she's
01:29:56
coming to raise money curently too she
01:29:58
she's here everybody's having a hard
01:29:59
time raising right now pretty pretty
01:30:01
crazy uh but chth you and I tweeted
01:30:04
about this clip where xiin ping said
01:30:07
that you know he's basically for peace
01:30:08
and that we have to work together let me
01:30:10
just start there with you shth so we can
01:30:12
get through this quickly do you take him
01:30:14
at his word there were cynical people
01:30:16
saying like hey you know he's just
01:30:18
desperate needs more trade needs more
01:30:20
business how do you interpret she's
01:30:22
peace pipe here you know and his dinner
01:30:26
with a bunch of Executives last night I
01:30:29
think he's pragmatic he's somebody that
01:30:31
wants to not just rule over China but he
01:30:35
wants to do it for the rest of his life
01:30:36
and he wants to do a good job
01:30:39
and I've said this many times China's
01:30:41
issues are endemic and pervasive and
01:30:44
they're
01:30:45
demographic and so he has huge
01:30:48
structural issues that he has to fix in
01:30:50
the Chinese economy and so I think all
01:30:53
of this is just about him focusing on
01:30:54
his priorities which makes sense which
01:30:56
is really about domestic policy there's
01:30:59
an enormous real estate issue that has
01:31:01
to get sorted out there is a GDP issue
01:31:03
that has to get sorted out there's a
01:31:04
youth unemployment issue that has to get
01:31:07
sorted out and then there's an aging and
01:31:10
a birth rate and a replacement issue
01:31:12
that has to get sorted out all of these
01:31:14
things are in enormous efforts and
01:31:17
so I think he's pragmatic enough to not
01:31:21
also then add foreign Misadventures to
01:31:24
that plate and I think what you heard
01:31:26
was him being very
01:31:28
clear about just exactly that sax what
01:31:32
was your interpretation there's so many
01:31:33
jumping off points here you got foreign
01:31:35
policy you got Tick Tock fenol I mean
01:31:38
there's a long list of issues but does
01:31:40
it feel like we're turning a corner on
01:31:42
relations hey they need us we need them
01:31:44
what was your interpretation of all this
01:31:46
well I think what's going on here is
01:31:48
that the Administration has its hands
01:31:49
full with two Wars if we got still got
01:31:52
this war in Europe over Ukraine which is
01:31:54
going very badly and now we have a new
01:31:56
war in the Middle East that caught them
01:31:57
completely by surprise uh recall that
01:32:00
literally a week or two before October
01:32:02
7th you had Jake Sullivan saying the
01:32:04
Middle East had never been more peaceful
01:32:06
so they absolutely did not anticipate
01:32:08
what was coming and now we have half of
01:32:10
our carrier groups in the Middle East
01:32:12
positioned there in case this you know
01:32:13
blows up into a wider Regional War so I
01:32:16
think the simple fact of the matter is
01:32:18
is that the Biden Administration this is
01:32:21
more than can handle or let's put this
01:32:22
way they're trying to put the China
01:32:24
compete on hold they're trying to put it
01:32:26
on ice while they figure out a way to
01:32:30
rescue this losing effort in Ukraine and
01:32:32
to prevent the situation in the Middle
01:32:34
East from spiraling out of control is
01:32:36
just too much for them they don't have
01:32:38
the bandwidth to deal with a War or
01:32:40
conflict breaking out in the Asia
01:32:43
Pacific so I think that's the the Biden
01:32:46
administration's motivation here as
01:32:47
they're seeking to ease tensions because
01:32:50
they're just to ban with constraint to
01:32:52
deal with it by the same token I think
01:32:54
jamath is right that uh she realizes
01:32:57
that he's got his hands full with
01:32:59
domestic economic problems he doesn't
01:33:01
need uh a ratcheting up of tensions with
01:33:04
the United States right now and I would
01:33:06
also add that on foreign policy I think
01:33:10
what you're seeing in his remarks is a
01:33:12
return to the foreign away from this
01:33:16
kind of wolf Warrior diplomacy that they
01:33:18
had going on a few years ago where they
01:33:19
were kind of saying these very Coast
01:33:22
things and they're kind of flexing their
01:33:23
muscles in the asia-pacific re region
01:33:26
that really backfired on them because it
01:33:28
raised the hackles of all those other
01:33:29
Asian countries and it was making it too
01:33:31
easy for the United States to form a
01:33:33
containment alliance against China so
01:33:35
he's moving away from that type of wolf
01:33:37
Warrior uh rhetoric that got them
01:33:39
nowhere and he's moved back to the
01:33:41
rhetoric of adun sha ping who said that
01:33:44
uh China's policy should be to B its
01:33:47
time and hide its light under a bushel
01:33:50
uh in other words just gets stronger and
01:33:52
stronger don't let people get wise to
01:33:55
how strong you are and then when the
01:33:57
time is right you will flex your muscles
01:33:59
but just keep you know keep getting
01:34:01
stronger and I think he's returned to
01:34:04
that that uh policy and you saw this
01:34:06
with the belt and Road conference that
01:34:08
in Beijing just a few weeks ago where
01:34:10
you saw countries like Vietnam
01:34:12
participating and I think that China
01:34:16
their strategy is now to try to use some
01:34:19
honey to catch some flies as opposed to
01:34:21
vinegar using this kind of bellicose
01:34:23
rhetoric and saber rattling and if we
01:34:24
look at this chart I think this chart
01:34:26
speaks volumes fredberg um in foreign
01:34:30
investment into China has absolutely
01:34:32
fallen off a cliff in De the decoupling
01:34:35
the saber rattling you know uh and other
01:34:39
countries looking to have resiliency and
01:34:41
not be dependent on China has obviously
01:34:43
blown up in his lap what what are your
01:34:44
thoughts on foreign trade and and and
01:34:47
our business relationship with China and
01:34:49
their relationship with the west and the
01:34:51
rest of the world this used to be a
01:34:53
thing to do to make money and then it
01:34:56
became a question mark of whether you
01:34:58
can make
01:35:00
money a couple years ago and now as of
01:35:02
this year I would argue you are a pariah
01:35:07
if you are trying to invest in China or
01:35:09
do any business in China it's almost
01:35:11
like you can't do business with the
01:35:12
Enemy that's the tone shift that I think
01:35:16
accelerated in the last 24 months and as
01:35:19
that tone shift happened in the business
01:35:20
community the investment Community um it
01:35:24
obviously escalated the tenor of what is
01:35:29
the the broader relationship looked like
01:35:32
that I think catalyzed hey we got to
01:35:34
simmer things down because we can't
01:35:35
really afford or deal with that escal
01:35:38
escalation right now but I I don't know
01:35:40
I mentioned this to you guys I was at a
01:35:42
conference this past summer the summer
01:35:43
of 22 it was like hey maybe you know
01:35:46
when are things going to get bad with
01:35:47
China to this summer it's like if you
01:35:50
were doing business in China you're
01:35:52
trying to pick up pennies in front of a
01:35:54
a freight train like you're going to get
01:35:56
run over and it happened in one year
01:35:59
that was my observation it was like this
01:36:01
crazy right this yeah and I could tell
01:36:03
from the tone of what everyone was
01:36:04
saying on stage it was like Universal
01:36:07
there wasn't anyone that disagreed and
01:36:09
similarly as you guys know we've heard
01:36:11
this from both political parties in the
01:36:13
US it suddenly became the new new thing
01:36:15
for Democrats and Republicans to
01:36:17
denounce China denounce investing in
01:36:19
China denounce doing business with China
01:36:21
but too much too fast I would argue has
01:36:25
led to an observation of the
01:36:27
consequences it's a deeply coupled
01:36:29
economic partner to the United States
01:36:32
China is the largest buyer of us
01:36:34
agricultural exports $2 200 billion
01:36:37
dollar a year of farm products that we
01:36:39
make get shipped out to China China is a
01:36:42
major supplier to our electronics
01:36:43
Industry I we don't need to recount all
01:36:45
the relationships but trying to decouple
01:36:47
too quickly trying to call China the
01:36:50
enemy too fast I think has led to a
01:36:52
realization that that's not really ATT
01:36:54
tenable so I would argue that maybe this
01:36:56
week has been a moment I don't know if
01:36:57
it really changes the long-term
01:36:59
trajectory but it seems like it's
01:37:01
certainly a very important and and
01:37:04
critical pause in the escalation one
01:37:06
thing I wanted to comment I think one of
01:37:08
the biggest winners this week I'd love
01:37:09
your point of view on this gu is like
01:37:10
Gavin Nome I mean he was all over this
01:37:13
week like he was at the plane greeting G
01:37:16
he cleaned up San Francisco I mean he
01:37:18
was shout out from the Pres shout out he
01:37:20
was yeah at the dinner I mean do you
01:37:23
guys think like Gavin is you know going
01:37:25
to be there when Joe says I'll see you
01:37:28
later I'm not going to run again and the
01:37:30
when I spoke yeah what's happening here
01:37:32
it's all just a big
01:37:35
coincidence he actually went on stage in
01:37:37
San Francisco made all those comments
01:37:39
about the city should be cleaned up and
01:37:40
we haven't been doing it we could have
01:37:42
the whole time he was very honest about
01:37:43
it that's not quite what he said yeah
01:37:45
but I look I mean I I don't know what
01:37:46
are you guys quasi owning it right ZX
01:37:48
quasi owning I don't think he did own it
01:37:50
he gave these really weird remarks about
01:37:53
how there are some people are saying
01:37:54
that we're only cleaning up San
01:37:56
Francisco because there's these fancy
01:37:57
people here that was such a weird term
01:38:00
as well it's true because it's true and
01:38:02
it's true but yeah it was like he was
01:38:04
headed in One Direction and then
01:38:05
realized he was making mistake but
01:38:06
couldn't quite yeah let's pull it up
01:38:09
let's pull it up it's good yeah here
01:38:10
play it they're just cleaning up this
01:38:12
place cuz all those fancy leaders are
01:38:14
coming into town um that's
01:38:17
true because it's
01:38:20
true what he's basically doing there is
01:38:23
admitting that he as the governor has
01:38:26
the power to snap his fingers and wave
01:38:27
his magic wand and clean up the Streets
01:38:29
of San Francisco and that is completely
01:38:32
different than what he's been telling us
01:38:33
for years for years he's been
01:38:35
maintaining that the problem of
01:38:36
homelessness in California is owned by
01:38:38
local officials or by judges or by
01:38:41
somehow by the system itself and it's
01:38:43
too complex and is beyond his power to
01:38:45
Simply do something about it but he just
01:38:47
admitted that in fact he does have the
01:38:50
power to do something about about it in
01:38:51
fact he is the boss of a one-party State
01:38:55
and all he had to do was snap his
01:38:56
fingers and make this homeless problem
01:38:58
go away and he's willing to do that for
01:39:01
xiangping he's willing to do that for
01:39:04
dreamforce he's willing to do that for
01:39:05
the Super Bowl but he is not willing to
01:39:07
do that for the ordinary citizens of San
01:39:10
Francisco and I think that ultimately is
01:39:12
going to be a huge vulnerability what he
01:39:13
should have said here is it's true that
01:39:17
we cleaned up the city to uh represent
01:39:21
ourselves well for these foreign leaders
01:39:23
who are coming in but the truth of it is
01:39:25
that we should be doing this every day
01:39:27
and here's my agenda for fixing it01
01:39:29
two3 and if we could get everyone on
01:39:32
board with this agenda we could fix this
01:39:33
problem but that's not what he said what
01:39:35
he basically communicated was that I can
01:39:38
solve this problem any time but I don't
01:39:40
give a about you ordinary citizens
01:39:43
we only do this for the fancy people
01:39:45
chth when uh any any reaction to that
01:39:48
yeah he's auditioning I mean I think
01:39:49
that much is clear
01:39:52
again I would just say it's you can't
01:39:53
just go to China and meet with xiin ping
01:39:56
so that has to be endorsed it's
01:39:58
negotiated it's
01:40:00
enabled you go there with talking points
01:40:03
you go there in discussion with State
01:40:05
and Treasury and and the rest of the
01:40:07
federal bureaucracy behind you so that
01:40:09
was a clear audition of some
01:40:13
kind and I think it was
01:40:16
obvious that they wanted the Apex Summit
01:40:19
to be the backrop of a Biden
01:40:23
G meeting and so you're doubling down on
01:40:26
California so I think
01:40:28
it's I think it's kind of like a a dry
01:40:31
run here is what I would say I mean I'm
01:40:33
not sure that it's I don't know what for
01:40:35
it definitely made him look presidential
01:40:37
and I think you're right that when he
01:40:38
went to China a few weeks ago to invite
01:40:40
x to the summit that was clearly
01:40:42
sanctioned by it got to be by blinkin by
01:40:45
suiv by the estment of course of course
01:40:49
but again the the reason why they
01:40:50
sanctioned that is because they really
01:40:53
want to ease tensions with China right
01:40:54
now given how full their hands are with
01:40:57
the Middle East right now with you no no
01:40:59
I'm not I'm not debating that I think
01:41:01
that that makes all the sense in the
01:41:02
world I think that you could have sent
01:41:04
any number of well not any number but
01:41:06
one of three cabinet secretaries and it
01:41:08
would have been just as appropriate and
01:41:10
I think sending the governor I think was
01:41:12
a little bit of a it was a test can he
01:41:15
perform and I think he did a good job
01:41:16
there he helped himself I mean he he
01:41:18
hurt himself with the it's true because
01:41:20
it's true but helped himself in terms of
01:41:22
the Optics of can I say it though I I I
01:41:26
think he did look presidential in China
01:41:28
and I actually that was the first time
01:41:30
where I thought Gavin was really being a
01:41:31
normal person because he actually told
01:41:33
the truth he's like yeah this state is
01:41:36
a at at its best no but this state at
01:41:39
its best is a center of innovation in
01:41:41
the future and at its worst it's where
01:41:44
every bad Progressive idea goes to die
01:41:47
but wait he said that no no no I'm
01:41:49
saying that I'm saying Francisco
01:41:51
embodies both of those two things on one
01:41:53
day it's full of people on crystal meth
01:41:56
and fenel on the second day it's the
01:41:58
open AI Dev
01:41:59
day yeah whole the president of within a
01:42:02
block of each other so I think and I
01:42:04
think he just adag if he said something
01:42:07
like that that would make him so much
01:42:09
more
01:42:09
real well maybe he's trying to find his
01:42:12
voice I I think his tone has shifted a
01:42:14
bit I don't know that's I'm saying it
01:42:15
felt like in seeing some of the talks he
01:42:16
gave this week and his positioning and
01:42:18
where he was sitting it was he looks
01:42:21
like very leg I definitely I definitely
01:42:23
will say that the Gavin Nome of three
01:42:26
years ago was a little bit
01:42:29
SMY and more of like a political Insider
01:42:34
the Gavin Newsome of like the last week
01:42:36
and particularly even just that comment
01:42:38
to me David was actually being honest
01:42:41
and I think that that's a more viable
01:42:43
path if they decide to give
01:42:46
him the candidacy which a really good
01:42:49
observation because he could just come
01:42:51
out and say listen we tried a bunch of
01:42:53
things we had good intent it didn't work
01:42:55
and now we're reversing them but you
01:42:57
know Biden did say that he would
01:43:01
possibly be running for his job I want
01:43:04
to thank Governor Nome want to thank him
01:43:06
he's been one hell of a governor man
01:43:08
matter of fact he could be anything he
01:43:10
wants he could have the job I'm looking
01:43:12
for that that was I don't know if you
01:43:14
guys heard that quote from Biden Biden
01:43:16
said that last nightow so I guess
01:43:19
conspiracy let's put our chin foil
01:43:20
tinfoil hack Corner time sack's your
01:43:23
favorite percentage chance Biden runs or
01:43:27
drops out whichever way you want to do
01:43:28
it anybody have uh some te here I still
01:43:32
think there's about a 70% chance that
01:43:34
Biden runs okay so 30% he's not gonna
01:43:39
voluntarily retire he the the party
01:43:42
apparatus whoever's you know behind the
01:43:44
scenes pulling the strings The Wizard of
01:43:46
Oz is going to have to go the party
01:43:48
Elders going have to go to him at a
01:43:50
certain point point and say sorry this
01:43:51
is just not going to work and we're not
01:43:53
there yet okay chamat what do you think
01:43:55
I'm curious I think David's right the
01:43:57
leaders and the powers that be will not
01:43:58
make that call right now I don't think
01:44:00
it's I don't think it's time yet
01:44:01
freeberg you got a
01:44:03
take uh I don't know I I think it's
01:44:05
speculation I really don't know okay hey
01:44:08
chamath one uh question here just on
01:44:10
markets hundreds of billions of dollars
01:44:12
not being invested in China on that
01:44:14
chart forign Investments where does that
01:44:16
money go any thoughts on where that's
01:44:18
going it's just sitting in account you
01:44:19
think it's being invested in other
01:44:21
geographies we talked about it last week
01:44:24
with Jared Kushner but if you look at
01:44:26
just the the ton of cash and cash
01:44:29
equivalents I think it just speaks to
01:44:31
how everybody's just a little bit on the
01:44:32
sidelines waiting to go waiting for the
01:44:35
green light which you know you saw CPI
01:44:37
this week by the way I mean we talked
01:44:39
about it last week which is that it
01:44:40
looked like CPI is turning over and now
01:44:43
the consensus forecast is you're going
01:44:44
to see CPI with a low 2% Handle by
01:44:48
February or March of this year so you're
01:44:49
going to see 2.2% % CPI or something
01:44:52
watch out watch out as in hey markets
01:44:55
could come roaring back maybe not Zer
01:44:57
environment but could get interesting
01:44:59
all right listen we don't want to leave
01:45:01
without doing a science Corner everybody
01:45:04
loves science corner I know deepmind has
01:45:07
been working on you know many projects
01:45:09
freedberg and Deep Mind Of course is
01:45:11
Google's AI arm they did go they did
01:45:15
protein folding and of course they're
01:45:17
doing Bard but they announced something
01:45:19
this week about pred ing
01:45:21
weather tell us about this paper that
01:45:24
was released freeberg yeah so I think
01:45:25
this was pretty exciting you guys know I
01:45:27
used to work in weather when I ran
01:45:29
climate Corp we did a lot of work with
01:45:31
weather forecasting and and weather
01:45:33
modeling so deep mind published a paper
01:45:36
in the journal science uh this week
01:45:38
introducing graph cast which is actually
01:45:40
a publicly available model uh that does
01:45:44
weather forecasting using machine
01:45:46
learned models it's a 37 million
01:45:47
parameter model just to give you a sense
01:45:49
how small that is is that model compared
01:45:52
to uh chat GPT which is like a 1.5
01:45:56
trillion parameters in the chat GPT
01:45:59
model this is only 37 million parameters
01:46:00
in this model um and the performance
01:46:03
that they got out of graph cast which
01:46:05
they published in the journal so they've
01:46:06
made the model available you can check
01:46:08
it out you can read the paper on how
01:46:10
they built the model they're very open
01:46:11
about that and the model actually
01:46:13
forecasts weather over a 10day period
01:46:16
better than traditional weather
01:46:18
forecasting so let me just talk about
01:46:19
how weather for casting is normally done
01:46:21
and what they did differently and why
01:46:23
this is such a big breakthrough so
01:46:25
weather forecasting is usually done by
01:46:27
kind of chopping up the atmosphere into
01:46:29
little cubes little blocks and you know
01:46:31
the weather is a fluid it's like a
01:46:33
liquid you know it's it's air and
01:46:35
moisture being moved around with energy
01:46:38
and so normal weather forecasting
01:46:40
systems are what are called numerical
01:46:42
models uh you run physics you run the
01:46:45
formulas for physics on each of those
01:46:47
little cells of the atmosphere and
01:46:48
figure out how they affect the cell next
01:46:50
to them and the cell next to them and
01:46:51
you run that cycle forward and you run
01:46:54
all these calculations and then you
01:46:55
figure out how those cells are going to
01:46:57
be different in hours and then in days
01:47:00
going forward and these numerical models
01:47:03
basically because they're compute
01:47:04
intensive they're running actual
01:47:06
calculations from physics uh to model
01:47:09
all this stuff they require a lot of
01:47:11
compute power uh there are hundreds of
01:47:14
variables that are measured and that are
01:47:15
output from forecasting models and
01:47:18
they're generally run on these very
01:47:19
expense
01:47:21
compute clusters uh there are two major
01:47:24
weather
01:47:25
forecasting systems one is run by ecmwf
01:47:28
which is the European weather center and
01:47:30
the other one is run by Noah called GFS
01:47:32
here in the US and the ecmwf runs on a
01:47:34
million cores across 7,700 compute
01:47:38
cluster nodes they spent about $200
01:47:40
million on this this uh this compute
01:47:43
cluster and the GFS model runs on a 29
01:47:46
peda flop system so 29 quadrillion
01:47:49
floating oper ation per second it cost
01:47:51
$270 million and when they run the the
01:47:54
forecast model using this traditional
01:47:56
way of doing things they're running all
01:47:57
these physics calculations on these
01:47:59
little small blocks of the atmosphere
01:48:01
and perturbing it fast forward try and
01:48:04
capture as much data out of the model
01:48:06
runs as they can and every six hours
01:48:08
they run the model and there's a new
01:48:10
output every six hours and it costs a
01:48:12
billion dollars for Noah to run
01:48:14
forecasts every year and disseminate
01:48:16
that information and then all the
01:48:17
weather companies you know from Weather
01:48:19
Channel and ACU weather they buying or
01:48:21
getting free access to these forecasts
01:48:23
that come from these big compute
01:48:25
clusters and that's how all weather
01:48:26
forecasting is done they're actually
01:48:27
done primarily by these big centralized
01:48:30
government super compute clusters and
01:48:32
then they're made available for everyone
01:48:33
to consume and the more data and the
01:48:37
more compute you get the better the
01:48:39
forecasts the higher the resolution
01:48:41
meaning the more local space you can
01:48:43
forecast on the smaller the time scales
01:48:45
meaning you can go from one day forecast
01:48:47
to one hour forecast break it down and
01:48:49
the further out you can be accurate
01:48:51
whether it's 5 days and then 10 days and
01:48:52
so on so more compute has been the name
01:48:54
of the game for many many years in WEA
01:48:56
forecasting the more compute you get the
01:48:58
better the forecasts so this
01:49:01
breakthrough that deepmind has had is
01:49:03
they basically took all the past weather
01:49:04
forecast and they built a model that
01:49:06
figured out how to take the current
01:49:08
weather and the weather from six hours
01:49:10
ago just the data so the data feeds from
01:49:13
today's current weather weather 6 hours
01:49:15
ago and trained a model that predicted
01:49:18
weather for the next 10 days the same
01:49:20
output as you would get from these big
01:49:21
expensive numerical models and they did
01:49:24
this using what's called a graph neural
01:49:26
network that's the architecture for the
01:49:28
model a graph neural network is far more
01:49:31
complicated than say predicting an image
01:49:34
which is two-dimensional it's pixels
01:49:35
next to each other or predicting a text
01:49:38
stream which is one-dimensional so
01:49:40
what's the next word in a sentence so uh
01:49:42
these are a graph neural network it's a
01:49:44
fairly complicated model and so they
01:49:47
describe all the techniques they used
01:49:48
and everything they built in the paper
01:49:50
they were really open about it all and
01:49:51
then they were able to train this model
01:49:53
using past you know forecasting data
01:49:55
going back to the 70s and then they ran
01:49:57
the model if you pull up these charts so
01:50:00
the first chart that we're going to pull
01:50:02
up here basically shows the model's
01:50:04
performance graph cast against the big
01:50:06
ECM ecmwf model and what you'll see is
01:50:09
that the model across all time scales
01:50:12
going out to 10 days is better and
01:50:14
there's a bunch of ways to measure this
01:50:15
primarily what's called root mean square
01:50:18
error which measures the scale of the
01:50:20
forecast so here you can see the black
01:50:23
line is the numerical model run by ecmwf
01:50:27
which is the big weather forcast model
01:50:28
that most people in the world rely on
01:50:30
every day and the bottom is the the the
01:50:32
machine learn model and by the way the
01:50:36
entire graph cast model runs in one
01:50:39
minute so you basically input current
01:50:41
weather data and you input weather data
01:50:43
from six hours ago and in a minute you
01:50:45
get all the forecasts whereas currently
01:50:48
it could run on what like a a smartphone
01:50:50
or a laptop it's small not that small
01:50:53
but yeah I mean you could run it on a
01:50:54
small compute and um you could get the
01:50:57
results in a minute and so basically
01:50:59
everyone can now be a weather forecaster
01:51:01
what used to be is this is the gap
01:51:03
between the black and the blue line
01:51:05
significant is that an important it is
01:51:07
significant in two ways one is first of
01:51:09
all it's better which is amazing because
01:51:11
researchers have spent billions of
01:51:13
dollars in decades trying to make their
01:51:15
numerical models better so the fact that
01:51:17
a machine learned model is is just
01:51:18
simply better is really
01:51:21
profound and the second point is that
01:51:23
this machine learn model is only 37
01:51:24
million parameters and can be output in
01:51:26
a minute so you could be running this
01:51:28
thing continuously and you could does
01:51:30
this does this work for weather all
01:51:32
around the world or specific exactly all
01:51:35
around the world and the second thing
01:51:36
that they measured if you pull up the
01:51:37
second graph was well okay great you can
01:51:40
measure you can do basic weather
01:51:41
forecasting but are you good at picking
01:51:43
up extreme events the things that are
01:51:46
really outside of the normal
01:51:47
distribution curve the things that we
01:51:49
should worry about like Cyclones or
01:51:51
extreme heat or atmospheric rivers and
01:51:53
the answer again is absolutely yes that
01:51:56
this model trained on this data is
01:51:59
better at forecasting extreme weather
01:52:01
events on that bottom left one is it
01:52:03
saying that HRS doesn't actually predict
01:52:07
Cyclone tracking and that graph cast
01:52:09
gives you like two three four days lead
01:52:11
time that's just an error difference
01:52:13
yeah it's just a measure it's a measure
01:52:14
of Delta so what's the downstream effect
01:52:17
of this people will be able to get out
01:52:18
of an area that could have extreme
01:52:20
weather or Insurance you you did
01:52:22
climate.com right so you you've been in
01:52:23
this business for a long time yeah so I
01:52:26
think one of the most interesting things
01:52:28
is how this is going to change how
01:52:29
weather forecasting is done again
01:52:30
billions of dollars there's a a big
01:52:32
system in Japan a big system in Europe
01:52:34
and a big system in the US that forecast
01:52:36
the weather they're some of the biggest
01:52:37
compute clusters in the world and now
01:52:40
you can run it in your home you can run
01:52:42
this model in your home because all the
01:52:44
weather data that is the input to the
01:52:46
model is available all the time on the
01:52:48
internet for free so we can just just
01:52:49
take that data and anyone could run it
01:52:51
you could get faster results more
01:52:52
frequent updates certainly a much lower
01:52:55
cost and I think this is just the
01:52:56
beginning of obviously a long road of
01:53:00
optimization and iteration that will go
01:53:01
from here where it'll be really amazing
01:53:03
to see what else can be done with this
01:53:05
model it totally upends a lot of
01:53:06
different business models as well what's
01:53:09
really important also to note this is an
01:53:11
incredible proof point of these graph
01:53:13
neural Nets graph neural Nets can be
01:53:15
applied in other areas like chemistry
01:53:18
biology Material Science where you're
01:53:20
simulating physics or or physical
01:53:22
properties or threedimensional space
01:53:24
over time showing that you can train off
01:53:26
data and be better than physical models
01:53:29
that just use physics to make a
01:53:31
prediction and you can just have the
01:53:33
machine figure out how to do it on its
01:53:34
own and it comes up with this prediction
01:53:36
that's better than running physics in
01:53:37
the in a compute cluster is really
01:53:39
incredible and I think it'll also it's a
01:53:41
great way to highlight the opportunity
01:53:43
for machine learning models being
01:53:44
applied to things like chemistry and
01:53:46
biology for Discovery purposes uh and
01:53:48
other areas over time I thought it was a
01:53:50
a great paper another really incredible
01:53:54
uh proof Point by Deep Mind I mean are
01:53:56
they going to just throw away those
01:53:57
clusters running those other weather
01:53:59
models now they're dude I'm telling you
01:54:01
like that's and and by the way talk
01:54:02
about accountability so what if I'm
01:54:04
running the Department of Commerce which
01:54:06
oversees Noah in the US I'm like what
01:54:08
are we doing spending a billion dollars
01:54:09
a year on this now we can just run this
01:54:11
thing on a Macbook so a perfect example
01:54:12
of how AI is going to save billions of
01:54:14
dollars this is like an incredible proof
01:54:16
point for the government getting more
01:54:17
efficient to Circle back around to Dean
01:54:19
Point earlier in the episode okay this
01:54:21
has been an amazing
01:54:23
episode for the dictator himself jth I
01:54:26
want a more accurate forecast of the
01:54:28
temperature on Uranus oh it was coming
01:54:31
in at any moment oh man it depends did
01:54:34
you have it's cold and dark cold and
01:54:36
dark cold and dark or maybe you had the
01:54:38
hot sauce anybody knows all right listen
01:54:39
n for the Sultan of science the day
01:54:41
after tomorrow beautiful uh it was great
01:54:43
fun movie David freedberg and the
01:54:47
Rainman David Sachs uh I'm amongst
01:54:50
amongst the world's greatest moderators
01:54:52
great job the last two weeks freedberg
01:54:54
and this is your favorite podcast be
01:54:57
Allin podcast we'll see you all next
01:54:59
time bye bye bye bye oh also also also
01:55:02
Happy Thanksgiving everybody happy
01:55:04
thanks weeks Happy Thanksgiving no
01:55:07
episode next week one happens you never
01:55:10
know somebody goes Rogue
01:55:11
you Happy Thanksgiving to everybody
01:55:14
gobble gobble to be be thankful for your
01:55:18
Bes gobble
01:55:20
we let your winners
01:55:22
ride Rainman
01:55:26
David and instead we open source it to
01:55:29
the fans and they've just gone crazy
01:55:31
with it queen
01:55:37
[Music]
01:55:39
of
01:55:41
[Music]
01:55:42
Besties my dog taking your
01:55:46
driveways man oh man
01:55:51
we should all just get a room and just
01:55:52
have one big huge orgy cuz they're all
01:55:54
this useless it's like this like sexual
01:55:56
tension that they just need to
01:55:57
[Music]
01:56:03
release we need to get
01:56:07
[Music]
01:56:17
merch
