00:00:00
former president uh Trump's true social
00:00:02
was briefly worth more than Elon Musk X
00:00:04
which has been declining in value as
00:00:06
we've talked about before true social
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parent company was shortly valued over10
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billion while ex Holdings is valued at
00:00:12
$9.4 billion and that's probably being
00:00:14
generous uh the Trump media stock was
00:00:17
briefly halted several times this week
00:00:18
for moving so sharply it's gone up and
00:00:20
down really is interesting there's a lot
00:00:22
of weird movement in this stock I'd love
00:00:25
to really actually see the transactions
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meanwhile the parent company lost more
00:00:28
than $16 million in quarter ending June
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and uh doesn't have very many uh people
00:00:33
on it which of course this is not about
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its its fundamental business issues
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however on Wednesday Trump this the
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shares Trump social lost 1.3 Trump
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himself lost $ 1.3 billion in net worth
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after the worst trading day ever for the
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uh for the company we do disagree on why
00:00:49
this is happening I think there's a lot
00:00:50
of gaming going on here and I would love
00:00:52
to see the logs say more about what you
00:00:55
mean by that well if you're someone who
00:00:57
wants to support Trump like these poly
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markets everyone like oh Peter teal owns
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it like people and it turned out there
00:01:03
was one trade in France from one guy you
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know that made made it go up so we're
00:01:08
all like oh Trump's winning but he's not
00:01:10
because one guy did it right and so I
00:01:12
worry this stock is being manipulated by
00:01:15
uh Trump adjacent people and who knows
00:01:18
who they could be to make it go up and
00:01:20
down I don't think this is a bunch of
00:01:22
like maybe it's Wall Street gaming the
00:01:25
situation um it feels very gamed like on
00:01:28
some level the way it's gone up because
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getting away from the fundamentals of
00:01:32
this company which both of us absolutely
00:01:34
agree is a piece of right it's a
00:01:36
Sandwich inside a you know pie
00:01:39
whatever um it it seems unusual that
00:01:43
this is happening I don't think it's
00:01:44
popular sentiment it's some other
00:01:46
sentiment and you think differently you
00:01:48
think differently it's an interesting
00:01:49
thesis and that is that if if a stock or
00:01:54
a poll indicates that Trump is likely to
00:01:57
win that it gives people confidence or
00:02:00
incentive or momentum on the Trump side
00:02:03
and then I've also heard a counter
00:02:05
Theory and that is it's being
00:02:07
manipulated by a de a wealthy Democrat
00:02:09
who wants to give Republican voters the
00:02:11
Sens it's in the bag such that people
00:02:13
stay on the couch I can see oh I didn't
00:02:17
hear that one that's fascinating that
00:02:19
was my friend Whitney Tilson who sends
00:02:20
out a really thoughtful email almost
00:02:22
every day um I can see someone
00:02:26
manipulating well let me back up this is
00:02:28
what I think is going on poly Market uh
00:02:32
Calia is that what it's
00:02:34
called anyways there's a bunch of them
00:02:37
um that are basically wagering sites
00:02:39
where you can bet on amongst other
00:02:41
things every state you can bet on margin
00:02:43
of Victory and you can bet on the
00:02:45
election and right now on poly Market it
00:02:48
has uh Trump at
00:02:51
62 approximately 62 or 63 and Harris at
00:02:55
37 or 38% that is that is a wide margin
00:03:00
and I think the logical thesis or the
00:03:02
most obvious one and kind of aams Razer
00:03:04
I think the one that probably is correct
00:03:06
is that the kind of person that goes to
00:03:08
a site and bets on an election is
00:03:10
probably younger probably more male and
00:03:12
those people skew heavily Trump I mean
00:03:14
the majority of the data across the A+
00:03:16
list polling sites says that it's pretty
00:03:18
much a tossup right and so if you are a
00:03:22
betting person I mean I'm actually
00:03:24
thinking of doing this just for fun uh I
00:03:27
might put some money on Harrison uh poly
00:03:30
Market because this is what it means if
00:03:32
you bet a $100 on Harris and she wins
00:03:35
you get approximately $287 or almost
00:03:38
triple your money and if someone said
00:03:40
you cara bet on this coin flip and you
00:03:42
don't know and I would describe the
00:03:44
election right now from there's the data
00:03:46
I see trying to be as unemotional as
00:03:48
possible as a coin flip but if someone
00:03:49
said you cara you bet $100 and you pick
00:03:52
heads or tails and if you win you get
00:03:56
287 you would do that because it's
00:03:59
asymmetric
00:04:00
absolutely let's do it let's do it well
00:04:03
that's actually what I'm thinking
00:04:04
because not that I'm I'm hopeful but I'm
00:04:06
not that confident I think it's
00:04:08
literally a coin flip but if on a coin
00:04:10
flip you're getting you're getting
00:04:13
$287 yeah then again you have
00:04:16
disproportionate upside so I think the
00:04:18
thesis that these markets are driven by
00:04:20
who bets which way or the other the most
00:04:23
obvious explanation is that the people
00:04:26
it's like I do you remember when Floyd
00:04:28
Mayweather fought Conor MCG the I do not
00:04:32
anyways this UFC fighter this whiter
00:04:34
than white guy red hair Irish guy who's
00:04:36
actually not that great in MMA fighter
00:04:38
he's just very loud and obnoxious oh
00:04:40
that guy he was in the movie with with
00:04:42
the he he did the sey anyway yes I know
00:04:45
who he is yeah well anyways and he
00:04:47
fought Floyd Mayweather who arguably has
00:04:49
the fastest hands in the history of
00:04:51
boxing but the odds were much tighter
00:04:53
because I think I think people still
00:04:56
like the idea I think there's some
00:04:57
unconscious racis racism where people
00:04:59
like the idea of the white guy beating
00:05:01
up or or winning the you know the
00:05:05
beating the black guy there's always
00:05:06
throughout the history of boxing there's
00:05:08
always a little bit of of bias for the
00:05:11
white guy the Great White Hope so to
00:05:12
speak and the best bet or the easiest
00:05:15
bet was on Floyd Mayweather fighting an
00:05:17
OK MMA fighter that had never boxed
00:05:20
before anyway did my point is you're
00:05:23
getting asymmetric upside to the notion
00:05:25
of who won that thing I don't even know
00:05:28
to Conor McGregor's credit he fought a
00:05:31
competent fight but Floyd Mayweather AB
00:05:34
dominated and and and won as he should
00:05:36
have but the thing that I don't think is
00:05:39
being
00:05:40
manipulated for Trump's favor is the
00:05:43
stock because the stock is the stock was
00:05:45
almost at a 100 a couple years ago it's
00:05:47
been as low as 12 so I don't know if
00:05:49
that's sending signals into the
00:05:51
marketplace why why couldn't one or 10
00:05:52
listen to this this is an interesting
00:05:54
Fortune had a really interesting
00:05:55
investigation and separate
00:05:57
investigations completed by the
00:05:58
blockchain firms Kos labs and Inca
00:06:00
digital and shared exclusively with
00:06:01
Fortune analysts found that polym market
00:06:03
activity exhibits signs of wash trading
00:06:05
a form of Market manipulation where
00:06:06
Shares are bought and sold often
00:06:08
simultaneously and repeatedly to create
00:06:10
a false impression of volume of activity
00:06:12
chaos Labs found that wash trading
00:06:14
consisted constituted around onethird of
00:06:16
trading volume in poly Market's
00:06:18
presidential Market while Inca digital
00:06:19
found that a significant portion of the
00:06:20
volume on the market could be attributed
00:06:22
to potential wash trading um uh the the
00:06:25
other ones um you know they're looking
00:06:28
at those too
00:06:30
I think you could do the same thing with
00:06:31
this with this stuck very little needs
00:06:33
to trade to make it go up and if you
00:06:35
wanted I I was intrigued by the
00:06:37
Democratic thing make them feel
00:06:39
confident and then you know put $100 for
00:06:41
each of us on that will you do that will
00:06:43
you do that and I'll owe you uh 100% um
00:06:47
I might I might do a little bit more
00:06:48
than that but anyways I buy the thesis
00:06:50
around the polls because around the the
00:06:53
betting sites because a lot of media
00:06:55
reports on the betting sites and when
00:06:57
the media reports that according to
00:06:59
Market or KY that Trump is almost 2 to
00:07:03
one favored that sends a signal that's
00:07:06
probably on the whole good for the Trump
00:07:08
Campa campaign where the stock is I
00:07:11
don't think does much around a signal or
00:07:14
confidence or lack thereof I don't I
00:07:16
don't think it creates much of a echo
00:07:18
act in favor of one candidate or the
00:07:20
other I would short that stock like
00:07:22
nobody's business just well you wouldn't
00:07:24
like well it could rise yeah you could
00:07:26
no you could rise you got to be very
00:07:27
careful short a stock like that because
00:07:29
yeah
00:07:32
he there's a scenario where it goes to
00:07:34
100 bucks on November the 6th and you
00:07:37
know the the dangerous thing about short
00:07:39
selling is your your losses are
00:07:41
unlimited y that's true anyways but I I
00:07:44
guess what I'm saying is I absolutely
00:07:45
buy your thesis around manipulating and
00:07:48
the incentive around manipulating the
00:07:49
betting markets I'm not sure I see the
00:07:51
connection of the incentive around
00:07:52
manipulating two it doesn't need that
00:07:54
many I'd just love to see it I'd like to
00:07:56
actually see the trading anyway we'll
00:07:57
see what happens uh when we go forward
