Search Captions & Ask AI

Doha Debacle: What's Next for Global Commerce

August 06, 2008 / 24:04

This episode discusses the collapse of the World Trade Organization's Doha Talks, featuring Wharton professors Steven Cobrin and Marshall Meyer. Key topics include global trade rules, the impact of emerging economies like China and India, and the future of international commerce.

Professor Steven Cobrin explains the implications of the Doha Talks' breakdown, emphasizing that while short-term effects on global GDP may be minor, the long-term consequences for the multilateral trading system could be significant. He notes that the complexity of negotiations among numerous countries has increased.

Marshall Meyer highlights China's agricultural inefficiencies and the need for self-sufficiency in food production. He discusses the challenges faced by China's rural population and the government's efforts to protect farmers amid rising food prices.

The professors also address the potential for future trade negotiations, suggesting that smaller, regional agreements may be more feasible than broad-based global agreements. They reflect on the political implications of trade issues in the United States.

Overall, the episode provides a comprehensive overview of the current state of global trade, the challenges posed by emerging economies, and the complexities of international negotiations.

TL;DR

The episode covers the WTO Doha Talks collapse, global trade implications, and China's agricultural challenges with experts Steven Cobrin and Marshall Meyer.

Episode

24:04
00:00:00
[Music]
00:00:03
This podcast is brought to you by
00:00:04
Knowledge at Wharton. Please visit
00:00:06
knowledge.warton.upen.edu
00:00:09
for more information.
00:00:14
Progress toward unfettered international
00:00:16
commerce stumbled last week with the
00:00:17
collapse of the World Trade
00:00:18
Organization's Doha Talks, a seven-year
00:00:21
effort to establish new global trade
00:00:23
rules. The lengthy talks which commenced
00:00:25
in Doha, Qar and ended in Geneva were
00:00:28
complicated by the rapid emergence of
00:00:29
China and India as major economic
00:00:32
powers. Powers with commercial and
00:00:34
strategic interests to protect and the
00:00:36
clout to do so. It was far from clear in
00:00:39
the aftermath of the collapse that the
00:00:40
talks would resume in the foreseeable
00:00:42
future. Some negotiators wondered if an
00:00:45
agreement among so many nations was even
00:00:47
possible. The fundamental reality is
00:00:50
that it has become too complex. WTO
00:00:52
general director Pascal Lami told the
00:00:55
Financial Times. Wharton professors
00:00:57
Steven Cobrin, whose research interests
00:00:59
include globalization and Marshall
00:01:00
Meyer, an authority on China's economy,
00:01:03
recently spoke to knowledge at Wharton
00:01:04
about the collapse of the talks, global
00:01:06
commerce, and China's interests in the
00:01:08
rules governing trade. Welcome,
00:01:10
Professor Cobin. The World Trade
00:01:12
Organization's talks set the rules for
00:01:14
governing international trade among more
00:01:16
than 150 member nations. Now that the
00:01:19
current round of talks, the Doha talks
00:01:21
have broken down. What's the practical
00:01:24
effect, trade is going to continue? No,
00:01:28
I think in the short run, the threat
00:01:30
isn't going to be dramatic. There'll be
00:01:32
some minor impact on world GDP. I think
00:01:35
the more serious threat in the longer
00:01:37
run is the multilateral trading system
00:01:38
as a whole in terms of how seriously
00:01:41
countries take the World Trade
00:01:42
Organization, how willing they are to
00:01:45
abide by its principles and especially
00:01:47
how willing they are to abide by a
00:01:49
negative decision in one of their
00:01:51
tribunals. If that's the case, then what
00:01:53
does trade look like in the absence of a
00:01:57
global agreement of some sort? Well, the
00:02:01
the absence of a quote global agreement
00:02:04
is the absence of a fairly major but
00:02:06
still marginal
00:02:08
uh extension of the rules. Mhm. So, we
00:02:11
still have a rule-based international
00:02:13
trading system. We've had a series of
00:02:15
negotiations since the period
00:02:17
immediately after World War II. The GAT
00:02:20
the GAT through the current DA round.
00:02:22
Okay. They've been incremental. they've
00:02:24
built on one another culminating with
00:02:26
the emergence of the World Trade
00:02:28
Organization in 1994. Right? So we have
00:02:31
a fairly broad-based system of rules to
00:02:34
govern the international trading system.
00:02:37
Okay. Uh the question is extending those
00:02:39
rules uh further into agriculture
00:02:41
services and other issues which this
00:02:43
round was going to do and perhaps as you
00:02:46
mentioned enforcing the rules if this
00:02:48
harms the WTO's authority in some way.
00:02:51
Well, one of the major uh advances with
00:02:55
the creation of the WTO in 1994 was a
00:02:58
serious tribunal. The big change with
00:03:01
the WTO viz the GAT is it was much more
00:03:04
difficult for a country to ignore a
00:03:06
finding that wasn't in its favor. I see.
00:03:08
And to to date, none of the major
00:03:11
countries has. Okay. But there's still
00:03:13
no way to compel a country to go along
00:03:16
with a WTO finding. Mhm. It's based on a
00:03:19
belief in mutual self-interest and a
00:03:21
belief in the benefits of a multilateral
00:03:23
system. And the danger is that without
00:03:28
the talks proceeding that that could
00:03:30
erode. There was a uh Wall Street
00:03:33
Journal article immediately after the
00:03:34
talks collapsed that said the they could
00:03:37
uh signal an end to some 60 years of uh
00:03:40
continuous expansion of global free
00:03:42
trade deals. That does sound pretty
00:03:44
dramatic, but it sounds similar to what
00:03:47
you've just described. I think it is
00:03:49
overly dramatic. I think it may signal
00:03:51
an end to the incremental progress again
00:03:55
since the f first gat talks in the late
00:03:57
40s. And what's happened since then is
00:04:01
first the lowhanging fruit was grabbed
00:04:03
off the tree earliest and second the
00:04:07
world economy has become much more
00:04:08
inclusive. And if you think about the
00:04:10
60s, the Kennedy round, which was one of
00:04:12
the major post-war rounds, you probably
00:04:15
had eight or nine countries that needed
00:04:17
to uh come to agreement to reach a deal,
00:04:20
right? Even in the Uruguay round, most
00:04:22
of the developing countries were
00:04:23
sidelined. All of a sudden, I think
00:04:26
rightfully so, in the Doha round, you
00:04:28
have 163 countries which in of which
00:04:32
probably 60 or 70 have a major voice in
00:04:35
the negotiations. I see. And so I think
00:04:38
what's changed is the ease and that's
00:04:40
too strong a word but the process of
00:04:43
multilateral negotiations with the WTO
00:04:46
meeting as a whole. Mhm. And able to
00:04:49
hammer out an agreement among all the
00:04:51
members. Exactly. So I think any further
00:04:54
progress may require somewhat of a
00:04:56
different process. Okay. There were a
00:04:59
lot of uh reasons that the bro talks
00:05:01
broke down. But in addition to having uh
00:05:05
more inclusiveness and many more
00:05:07
countries participating,
00:05:09
the the role in which they participated
00:05:10
was different. I mean with China in
00:05:12
India, Brazil emerging as major economic
00:05:16
powers, they had a lot more perhaps they
00:05:18
had more clout than they did before. Um
00:05:21
certainly they had interests that had to
00:05:23
be contended with. Yeah. And and that's
00:05:26
what I was talking about just
00:05:27
previously. I I think that's true in the
00:05:30
sense that uh a lot of the developing
00:05:32
countries have become serious players in
00:05:34
the world economy and have a serious
00:05:36
voice in the negotiations. Okay. And
00:05:38
that means that as diverse as the 30 or
00:05:43
31 OECD members are, that pales when you
00:05:46
start to consider China and India and
00:05:49
Uruguay uh whose levels of economic
00:05:52
development, whose objectives, whose
00:05:54
political systems, whose economic
00:05:55
beliefs differ vastly among themselves
00:05:59
and visav the traditional members of the
00:06:01
OECD? I see. Do you think that it's
00:06:04
possible for the traditional economic
00:06:05
powers in North America and Europe and
00:06:07
Asia uh and these emerging economic
00:06:10
powers to ever reach an agreement on
00:06:13
trade given their divergent interests
00:06:16
and and especially under the rules of
00:06:18
these talks in which I believe any one
00:06:21
member can veto uh a particular um um
00:06:27
portion of the agreement uh and make the
00:06:30
whole agreement come to a crashing halt.
00:06:32
I think in effect one member can veto
00:06:34
it. I don't think that's what happened
00:06:35
this time around. No. Okay. Uh I think
00:06:38
it may represent as I said before a
00:06:41
change in the nature of process. The the
00:06:44
our ability to reach a multilateral
00:06:46
agreement on a wide uh reaching set of
00:06:50
issues among60
00:06:52
different countries may be beyond our
00:06:54
reach at this point. Uh may not be
00:06:57
possible. uh we may have to e a e either
00:07:00
a negotiate on smaller pieces uh among
00:07:04
all of the countries or b even break
00:07:06
down into regional negotiations which
00:07:09
then tend to come together in a
00:07:11
community in a committee of a whole. Oh
00:07:13
I see. So that you achieve free trade on
00:07:15
a regional level and then move to a
00:07:17
global level. Uh as I said before we may
00:07:19
have to break the negotiations down into
00:07:21
smaller pieces. I think the to use the
00:07:24
standard analogy the bicycle will keep
00:07:26
moving ahead but I think it's going to
00:07:28
have to do it at a different pace and in
00:07:30
a very different way given the change in
00:07:33
the dynamic of the number of countries
00:07:37
participating in the divergent
00:07:38
interests. Is there any reason to think
00:07:41
that these talks would resume anytime
00:07:43
soon in their in their current form or
00:07:46
do you think that some of the if they do
00:07:48
resume they'll resume in one form or
00:07:50
another of some of the different um uh
00:07:53
uh scenarios that you've described
00:07:54
regional or or one one measure at a
00:07:57
time.
00:07:59
Uh they could resume. I think it would
00:08:01
be very difficult to reach a broad-based
00:08:04
agreement without some sort of major
00:08:06
shock that got everyone's attention. uh
00:08:09
and and and force people to make
00:08:11
compromises and agree. I think what's
00:08:14
much more likely is they again we take
00:08:17
smaller pieces of the puzzle, solve
00:08:19
those and then stitch them together. Uh
00:08:21
do you think it's possible that the
00:08:23
collapse of the talks um in this
00:08:25
particular round will energize free
00:08:28
trade critics in the United States? It's
00:08:30
always been everybody's favorite uh
00:08:33
whipping boy. Uh I'm not sure that they
00:08:36
need energizing. I think a lot of
00:08:39
concerns about trade uh revolve around
00:08:42
the business cycle. Uh and as times get
00:08:45
more difficult,
00:08:47
I think more and more people will start
00:08:49
to question the benefits of free trade,
00:08:51
the value of outsourcing, the value of
00:08:54
inward flows of investment. Uh so the
00:08:56
collapse of the talks certainly isn't
00:08:58
going to help, but I suspect it's not
00:09:01
going to be a major factor in energizing
00:09:03
opposition to globalization or free
00:09:04
trade. Trade's always been a tough
00:09:06
issues for US voters to resolve. Uh and
00:09:10
it's likely that it's going to be an
00:09:11
important issue in this fall's
00:09:12
presidential election. On one hand,
00:09:14
people generally understand that free
00:09:16
trade in the long term is necessary to
00:09:19
spread economic opportunity globally,
00:09:21
but on the other hand, it can the the
00:09:23
long term can mean a very long time
00:09:25
between paychecks.
00:09:27
So, it's tempting for politicians to
00:09:30
latch on to free trade as an issue to
00:09:33
beat each other over the head with. Do
00:09:36
you think that um uh well, if you were a
00:09:40
voter or if you were giving advice to
00:09:42
voters, um how would you say they should
00:09:44
approach this issue? I mean, how do you
00:09:46
try to get a a handle on the importance
00:09:48
of free trade? I believe in an open
00:09:50
economy. That doesn't mean a lack of all
00:09:53
regulation or restriction. Okay? In any
00:09:56
open system, any country that's open to
00:09:58
the world economy, they're going to be
00:10:00
winners and losers. And that's clear.
00:10:04
People are more concerned about the
00:10:05
losers as they feel more threaten
00:10:08
themselves economically.
00:10:10
Uh I think one of the things we need to
00:10:12
do, which has been talked about for 50
00:10:14
years, is building more of a secure
00:10:18
safety net for people who fall through
00:10:20
the cracks of free trade. Mhm. I think
00:10:23
it may be beneficial to the economy as a
00:10:27
whole and it isn't clear in every
00:10:29
instance but I think generally it is
00:10:30
true. Uh it free trade doesn't represent
00:10:34
a gain for any individual or every
00:10:36
industry. I think there have to be has
00:10:39
to be more attention paid to providing
00:10:42
some form of support for those who lose
00:10:45
jobs uh need retraining, need temporary
00:10:49
employment, uh unemployment payments and
00:10:53
the like. Thanks for joining us,
00:10:55
Professor. Uh when we first asked you
00:10:57
about your reaction to the collapse of
00:10:59
the trade talks, you said that China
00:11:01
wants to protect its inefficient
00:11:03
farmers. What about their agricultural
00:11:05
system is inefficient? Well, you know,
00:11:07
China
00:11:09
still has
00:11:11
more farmers, uh, more rural population
00:11:15
than urban population. Last numbers I
00:11:17
saw, 42% urban, 58% rural. Uh, rural
00:11:22
population is shrinking maybe 1% a year,
00:11:25
which is a very very dramatic rate of
00:11:27
urbanization given the size of the
00:11:29
country, but still huge rural
00:11:31
population. Now, let's look at Chinese
00:11:35
geography.
00:11:37
Um, you got 1.3 roughly billion people.
00:11:42
58%
00:11:44
are rural. That translates into roughly
00:11:48
770 million quote rural residents. They
00:11:52
live at very high density. Almost all of
00:11:55
them in an area that's like the
00:11:59
equivalent to the US east of the
00:12:00
Mississippi River.
00:12:03
So you've got a lot of rural pop, you
00:12:06
got lot large rural population
00:12:08
concentrated in a very small area. Some
00:12:10
say that 40% of the world's farmers live
00:12:14
in China.
00:12:16
Maybe it's 38% today. Mhm. Working 10%
00:12:21
of the world's arable land. Now this
00:12:24
tells you that farm plots or rice
00:12:27
patties in China are very very small.
00:12:32
and they're not really conducive
00:12:36
to consolidation largescale farming
00:12:39
because in the south of China at least
00:12:41
inner Mongolia would be a little
00:12:42
different where they have grasslands but
00:12:45
um uh but the south of China much of
00:12:47
this is terrorist this is historical
00:12:49
this has been going on for years and
00:12:52
it's very hard to convert terrorist rice
00:12:55
patties into large efficient farms
00:13:00
um so conse consequence is smallcale at
00:13:03
least for grains smallcale production
00:13:08
okay which by global standards is going
00:13:10
to be inefficient absolutely yeah so are
00:13:13
there other
00:13:15
geographic areas in China where
00:13:17
agriculture could occur but does not or
00:13:20
is that just or are the areas that are
00:13:22
farmable being farmed um we most people
00:13:25
in the US don't realize that China's
00:13:27
land mass is about the same as the US
00:13:30
but two3 third of its desert or you know
00:13:34
mountain that you really can't do
00:13:35
anything about. So the answer is yeah if
00:13:39
they had a lot more water and water is
00:13:41
becoming a huge crisis in the north of
00:13:42
China. They're planning to divert water
00:13:44
like the old Grand Canal you know from
00:13:47
uh from three gorges up north in China
00:13:49
to relieve the pressures on the Beijing
00:13:51
and Tanzhin water supplies. No, no, no.
00:13:54
They're losing through urbanization and
00:13:56
desertification
00:13:57
a lot of farmland. The obvious place
00:14:00
would first be again try to get the
00:14:02
grasslands of Inner Mongolia more
00:14:04
productive, keep the sandstorms down and
00:14:07
then if they could find any water
00:14:08
anywhere, begin to irrigate say
00:14:10
Chingghai province um and uh get some
00:14:13
intensive agriculture as Israel has
00:14:15
done. They have Israel as a model um but
00:14:18
so far their attempt to emulate that
00:14:20
model has not been terribly successful.
00:14:21
Okay. Is there a problem with the access
00:14:24
to technology that um that American
00:14:26
farmers have or would the technology not
00:14:29
make a big difference given the the
00:14:31
nature of the farming there? Well, it
00:14:33
does make a difference but in an area
00:14:34
not critical to China. Mhm. Okay. Small
00:14:37
plot intensive agriculture is great for
00:14:40
produce
00:14:41
and there's a very active very
00:14:43
profitable produce market in China.
00:14:47
So um uh and some of the produce is high
00:14:51
value is exported brings money into
00:14:53
China. Mhm. So you you go to this town
00:14:55
called Shoguang which is in the middle
00:14:58
of Shandong province between Ginan the
00:15:01
capital and Ching Dao where large
00:15:03
companies like Higher and High sense are
00:15:05
located and you will see trucks from all
00:15:08
over this all over China coming together
00:15:11
and just just you've never seen so much
00:15:12
produce in your life and they have to
00:15:15
move it very quickly because obviously
00:15:16
it deteriorates. Mhm. And uh this is a
00:15:20
city of about a town of about a million,
00:15:21
you know, one traffic light, one movie
00:15:23
theater. Uh but um you you can see how
00:15:26
active this this this kind of highv
00:15:29
value produce industry is in China. But
00:15:31
that's not going to feed the masses of
00:15:32
China. Right? No, what China needs is is
00:15:36
rice for the south, wheat, and also
00:15:39
soybeans. And presently they're huge
00:15:42
they are importing huge quantities of
00:15:45
these. But because of the price gap,
00:15:50
um, even with elevated world prices,
00:15:52
they've got to do something to protect
00:15:54
their farmers. They've formerly used
00:15:55
direct subsidies. Mhm. But I think they
00:15:58
want the right to impose tariffs if they
00:16:01
think their domestic producers are going
00:16:03
to be overwhelmed. And this is a matter
00:16:06
of national self-sufficiency. As
00:16:08
mentioned to you earlier, uh, China sees
00:16:11
what's happening with petroleum in the
00:16:13
United States. They don't want to be
00:16:14
dependent
00:16:17
on foreign sources um for um fundamental
00:16:21
food stuffs again wheat, rice to some
00:16:24
extent soybeans and their dependence is
00:16:26
much greater than already much greater
00:16:27
than you think it is because let's say
00:16:30
they're importing 12% of their food
00:16:31
supply which I I think is approx is
00:16:35
probably a good number to use as a rough
00:16:38
number. Could be 10, could be 15. I'm
00:16:40
going to say 12. um doesn't sound like
00:16:43
too much, but if you got 58% of your
00:16:46
population, 60% of your population sort
00:16:48
of growing food for themselves,
00:16:51
okay, that means it's you're really not
00:16:53
looking at at 12 over 100. You're
00:16:55
looking at say 12 over 42.
00:16:59
In other words, food that's in the
00:17:00
market. And 12 over 42 is is roughly 30%
00:17:05
of the of the food that's in the market,
00:17:07
right, is imported. And that means that
00:17:10
they're just terribly vulnerable to
00:17:12
global price fluctuations at least in
00:17:14
the urban areas of China. Which is why
00:17:16
you would said it's really a strategic
00:17:18
it's very much a strategic issue for
00:17:19
them not entirely. And there's something
00:17:21
else going on um aside from the the uh
00:17:25
global fluctuations in price of grain uh
00:17:28
for many many reasons including some say
00:17:30
ethanol. China's had a particular
00:17:32
problem this year not with grain but
00:17:33
with meat. They've had something called
00:17:35
blue ear disease which has destroyed a
00:17:37
lot of of of of their pigs. Okay. And as
00:17:41
a consequence, the price of meat in
00:17:43
China has shot up uh between 40 and 50%
00:17:46
in the last 12 months. Mhm. It means the
00:17:48
overall food prices have shot up about
00:17:50
25%.
00:17:52
And in a country where say 354% of the
00:17:55
household budgets food,
00:17:57
um uh this has had very very dramatic
00:18:00
impact on people. And uh the the the
00:18:04
Chinese need to do what they can to kind
00:18:06
of keep these prices in check on the one
00:18:07
hand, but also to protect their domestic
00:18:10
producers and their incomes, right? And
00:18:13
for China, it well in many nations uh
00:18:17
the the government will try to protect
00:18:19
its its uh its farmers for um domestic
00:18:22
political reasons. Sure. And one might
00:18:24
think that that's less important in
00:18:26
China. They don't vote. Ah, but they do
00:18:29
other things. They vote with their feet.
00:18:31
Yes. And by meeting voting with their
00:18:32
feet is they riot.
00:18:35
And and through 2005, the Chinese
00:18:38
government actually published statistics
00:18:41
on what they call mass disturbances. No
00:18:44
one knew quite what that meant. Was it
00:18:45
two or more people or 12 or more people?
00:18:47
But whatever it was, it was. And you
00:18:49
could see the graph going up
00:18:50
exponentially. And they stopped
00:18:52
releasing these numbers. But your
00:18:54
anecdotal accounts tell you that
00:18:55
discontent in rural communities has shot
00:18:57
up in China. Uh some people tell me that
00:19:00
premier wjao first thing he looks at in
00:19:03
the morning are these reports of
00:19:05
discontent particularly in rural areas.
00:19:08
We've read in the newspaper various
00:19:10
accounts of riots and uh the government
00:19:14
is very very sensitive to this. This is
00:19:17
a historical thing in China. It's not
00:19:19
just under communism that they've had
00:19:21
spontaneous riots. It was part of the
00:19:23
political process in China. instead of
00:19:25
going to the ballots box, people would
00:19:26
just get out there and riot for and
00:19:27
sometimes for five years in a row. But
00:19:29
the Chinese government really wants to
00:19:31
minimize this for all kinds of reasons
00:19:33
as you can imagine. Of course. Um so
00:19:36
then is it in China's interest to uh I
00:19:39
mean to return to the talks or see the
00:19:42
talks revived? I mean a lot of people
00:19:43
are saying that they they threw in this
00:19:45
last minute demand on the uh on on some
00:19:48
of the tariff uh negotiations to derail
00:19:51
the talks.
00:19:53
it would seem that it's in their best
00:19:54
interest to have some sort of a trade
00:19:56
agreement. Uh I would think so. Again,
00:19:58
I'm not an expert on trade, but I I I I
00:20:01
would think that um um from the point of
00:20:04
view of the export economy in which
00:20:06
they've so heavily depended, yeah, it is
00:20:08
in their interest to have a trade
00:20:09
agreement. Um but I think right now
00:20:14
um the the the priority for the Chinese
00:20:17
the the current Chinese government um is
00:20:21
national self-sufficiency. uh in food
00:20:24
and again protecting the farmers among
00:20:27
whom discontent where where discontent
00:20:29
is is is I think very high right now.
00:20:32
Okay. For all kinds of reasons given the
00:20:34
the um uh geographical
00:20:37
situation there. Is it a reasonable
00:20:40
expectation for them to be
00:20:41
self-sufficient uh agriculturally?
00:20:44
That's a very interesting question
00:20:46
because just as
00:20:49
think of this geopolitically
00:20:52
um just as the world depends heavily on
00:20:57
the Middle East for oil,
00:21:00
the world unfettered would depend
00:21:03
heavily on the English-speaking
00:21:04
countries,
00:21:06
US, Canada, Australia particularly for
00:21:11
the global supply of grain. There are
00:21:13
many reasons for this and the question
00:21:15
that's being raised is can the world
00:21:18
afford to be
00:21:21
that dependent on one block of
00:21:24
countries. Mhm. And uh the answer I
00:21:29
think remains unknown. Okay. But that's
00:21:32
I think there there lies the issue. US,
00:21:35
Canada and Australia particularly US and
00:21:37
Canada are uniquely positioned to supply
00:21:41
the world with grain and that has the n
00:21:42
to do with the nature of weather
00:21:44
patterns.
00:21:45
Um I don't know if you recall but the
00:21:47
Soviet Union used to go through periodic
00:21:49
I won't say starvations. China did have
00:21:51
a great starvation and great great leap
00:21:53
forward but Soviet Union used to have
00:21:55
periodic food shortages and it wasn't
00:21:57
just due to socialism. See, if you look
00:22:01
if you look at the crop bands in the
00:22:03
Soviet Union, you know, the wheat's
00:22:04
grown in the south, say in in Georgia
00:22:07
and Ukraine, so on and so forth, the
00:22:09
crop bands run east to west. In the US
00:22:12
and Canada, they run north to south. And
00:22:16
that means look, you know, where's our
00:22:17
wheat belt? Where's our corn belt? You
00:22:18
can just see these vertical stripes
00:22:20
across the map. US and Canada. So
00:22:22
weather patterns shift, but you still
00:22:25
get production, right? You got somewhere
00:22:28
somewhere on the somewhere you're
00:22:29
getting production. Exactly. Okay. That
00:22:32
doesn't happen in Eurasia
00:22:35
much more vulner vulnerable to climate
00:22:37
changes and China in particular as well
00:22:39
as India by the way have another
00:22:43
huge problem called water.
00:22:47
The north of China the wheat area is
00:22:49
arid. Desertification is happening. If
00:22:52
you've ever been in Beijing in a sand in
00:22:54
a sandstorm, you'll know what the word
00:22:55
desertification means. You know, you
00:22:58
know, when they tell you that, you know,
00:23:00
over a good weekend, 318,000 tons of
00:23:03
sand were deposited in Beijing.
00:23:07
Um, and it's not the kind of sand, you
00:23:09
know, it's in your kid's sandbox. I
00:23:10
mean, this is the kind of stuff that
00:23:12
when it gets into jet engines, makes the
00:23:14
engine manufacturers very happy. It's
00:23:16
like throwing an abrasive into your
00:23:18
vehicle's engine, right? Or in the
00:23:20
aircraft engine. Um when you see this
00:23:22
happening, you know that their capacity
00:23:25
to grow food
00:23:27
is going to be constrained going forward
00:23:30
unless either climate change reverses or
00:23:32
they find some way to engineer water
00:23:34
supplies in the north of China. I don't
00:23:36
know the topography of India all that
00:23:38
well, but I understand that there are
00:23:40
similar problems in India. Certainly.
00:23:42
Yes. Okay. Well, this has been
00:23:45
fascinating. Thank you so much for for
00:23:47
joining. More than welcome. It was fun.
00:23:51
For more information, please visit
00:23:52
knowledge.warton.upen.edu.
00:23:56
[Music]

Episode Highlights

  • Collapse of Doha Talks
    The World Trade Organization's Doha Talks collapsed, raising questions about the future of global trade.
    “This could signal an end to 60 years of continuous expansion of global free trade deals.”
    @ 03m 34s
    August 06, 2008
  • Future of Global Trade Agreements
    Experts suggest that future trade negotiations may need to be smaller and more regional.
    “We may have to negotiate on smaller pieces among all of the countries.”
    @ 07m 04s
    August 06, 2008
  • China's Agricultural Challenges
    China's agricultural system struggles with inefficiency due to a large rural population and small farm plots.
    “China still has more farmers than urban population, making large-scale farming difficult.”
    @ 11m 15s
    August 06, 2008
  • The Vulnerability of Eurasia
    Eurasia faces significant challenges due to climate change, impacting food production.
    “Eurasia is much more vulnerable to climate changes.”
    @ 22m 35s
    August 06, 2008
  • Desertification in China
    Desertification is a pressing issue in northern China, affecting wheat production.
    “You know, when they tell you... 318,000 tons of sand were deposited in Beijing.”
    @ 23m 00s
    August 06, 2008

Episode Quotes

  • The bicycle will keep moving ahead but at a different pace.
    Doha Debacle: What's Next for Global Commerce
  • Trade's always been a tough issue for US voters to resolve.
    Doha Debacle: What's Next for Global Commerce
  • China wants to protect its inefficient farmers.
    Doha Debacle: What's Next for Global Commerce
  • You know, when they tell you... 318,000 tons of sand were deposited in Beijing.
    Doha Debacle: What's Next for Global Commerce
  • Their capacity to grow food is going to be constrained going forward.
    Doha Debacle: What's Next for Global Commerce

Key Moments

  • Trade Talks Collapse03:34
  • Future Negotiation Strategies07:04
  • China's Farming Issues11:15
  • Food Security Issues21:32
  • Climate Challenges22:35
  • Desertification Impact23:00
  • Agricultural Constraints23:25

Words per Minute Over Time

Vibes Breakdown

Related Episodes

Wharton's Franklin Allen: China and the WTO
December 15, 2011
Captions not detected. You can watch the video, but not search it. If you think this is an error, contact support.
15:22
Wharton's Franklin Allen: China and the WTO
Wharton's Marshall Meyer: China and the WTO
December 15, 2011
Captions not detected. You can watch the video, but not search it. If you think this is an error, contact support.
30:21
Wharton's Marshall Meyer: China and the WTO
The World Bank's Robert Zoellick: Countries Doing Badly Should Worry about Those Doing Worse
March 18, 2009
Captions not detected. You can watch the video, but not search it. If you think this is an error, contact support.
32:35
The World Bank's Robert Zoellick: Countries Doing Badly Should Worry about Those Doing Worse
Wharton's Mauro Guillen: China and the WTO
December 15, 2011
Captions not detected. You can watch the video, but not search it. If you think this is an error, contact support.
24:19
Wharton's Mauro Guillen: China and the WTO
Trade War with China
May 02, 2019
Captions not detected. You can watch the video, but not search it. If you think this is an error, contact support.
30:13
Trade War with China
The Philly Fed's Patrick Harker: The State of the U.S. Economy
August 20, 2019
Captions not detected. You can watch the video, but not search it. If you think this is an error, contact support.
33:16
The Philly Fed's Patrick Harker: The State of the U.S. Economy
Wharton's Franklin Allen on China's Currency Policies
October 13, 2010
Captions not detected. You can watch the video, but not search it. If you think this is an error, contact support.
14:13
Wharton's Franklin Allen on China's Currency Policies
Linking Commerce to Geopolitics: The Candidates' Views on Gl
September 17, 2008
Captions not detected. You can watch the video, but not search it. If you think this is an error, contact support.
18:36
Linking Commerce to Geopolitics: The Candidates' Views on Gl
Wharton's Mauro Guillen on China's Currency Policies
October 13, 2010
Captions not detected. You can watch the video, but not search it. If you think this is an error, contact support.
10:55
Wharton's Mauro Guillen on China's Currency Policies
Are Tariffs Here to Stay? Wharton Professor Breaks Down U.S. Trade Policy
May 07, 2025
Captions not detected. You can watch the video, but not search it. If you think this is an error, contact support.
09:00
Are Tariffs Here to Stay? Wharton Professor Breaks Down U.S. Trade Policy
State of the Economy: Global Markets
January 28, 2013
Captions not detected. You can watch the video, but not search it. If you think this is an error, contact support.
16:26
State of the Economy: Global Markets