00:00:03
this podcast is brought to you by
00:00:04
knowledge at Warton please visit
00:00:06
knowledge. won. up.edu for more
00:00:17
information there's two ways to answer
00:00:19
that question the first is based on
00:00:24
their explicit references to trade
00:00:27
policy um McCain obvious viously has um
00:00:33
a far
00:00:35
more active and uh pro-
00:00:39
international trade international
00:00:41
relations U policy explicitly um he
00:00:46
has not only uh endorsed the United
00:00:51
States current um trade
00:00:55
obligations but he has uh explicitly
00:01:00
spoken of how trade regulations can be
00:01:04
used to further the US agenda or in some
00:01:08
sense is the world's agenda uh Barack
00:01:10
Obama has explicitly threatened to
00:01:14
withdraw from NAFTA um he's used that as
00:01:17
a threat to bring Canadian and Mexican
00:01:21
negotiators to the
00:01:23
table um he has referred to NAFTA as a
00:01:26
flawed agreement uh meaning flawed in
00:01:30
that um not meaning flaw in that it
00:01:33
encompasses too much trade and too open
00:01:36
trade
00:01:38
actually meaning meaning that it does do
00:01:41
that not necessarily meaning
00:01:43
that uh some people think of it as
00:01:46
flawed because it inhibits trade a
00:01:47
little bit he's the opposite he says it
00:01:50
doesn't inhibit it enough um he has
00:01:53
criticized a number of the bilateral uh
00:01:56
negotiations that the US has entered
00:01:57
into or has concluded so you know his
00:02:00
explicit position would seem to be
00:02:04
um not
00:02:07
endorsing or not
00:02:10
supporting or not promoting
00:02:13
international
00:02:14
trade
00:02:17
but if you look at their non
00:02:21
trade positions and if you look at in
00:02:24
particular their
00:02:25
advisers um and the people who who they
00:02:28
talk to um um John McCain would seem to
00:02:32
be continuing the um somewhat
00:02:37
um
00:02:39
realist old
00:02:42
school Cold
00:02:44
War trade
00:02:46
policies and Barack
00:02:49
Obama his language and his advisers
00:02:51
represent a
00:02:53
change but I should say possible change
00:02:56
from that and and in the context of
00:02:58
trade you know you know that might open
00:03:00
up some interesting opportunities or
00:03:02
some differences so you you have to look
00:03:05
both at their explicit language in which
00:03:09
John uh John McCain is clearly the more
00:03:12
trade friendly
00:03:13
candidate and their
00:03:15
underlying positions in which Barack
00:03:19
Obama represents the greater possibility
00:03:22
of of um fitting into the new world
00:03:32
he hasn't explicitly backed off of his
00:03:35
condemnation of NAFTA the the negative
00:03:38
things he said about NAFTA but your your
00:03:40
Point's an interesting
00:03:42
point um you know arguably he was just
00:03:46
uh saying the things that a Democratic
00:03:48
candidate has to
00:03:49
say
00:03:52
um yeah I I I I I would want to be
00:03:55
careful in reading too much into that
00:03:59
interpret
00:04:00
I mean he said what he said and and and
00:04:03
to me the the the the most troubling
00:04:05
thing is that he explicitly threatened
00:04:08
to withdraw from NAFTA and he explicitly
00:04:11
used it as a
00:04:12
threat um to bring Canadian and Mexican
00:04:15
nego Table and the United States has had
00:04:17
a long period you know recent period of
00:04:22
of being a really bad neighbor to Mexico
00:04:24
and Canada and we don't need to be
00:04:26
threatening them that's that even as a
00:04:30
campaign
00:04:31
measure that that that that should be
00:04:34
troubling to anyone who's interested in
00:04:35
meaningful International uh
00:04:37
relationships commercial
00:04:43
relationships there's the good and the
00:04:45
Bad and the Ugly for that matter you
00:04:47
know the the good
00:04:49
is uh
00:04:52
unlike um
00:04:54
some people who can't move past the Cold
00:04:58
War
00:04:59
when I say can I don't mean that they're
00:05:02
somehow congenitally incapable of
00:05:04
thought I mean just it's the way they
00:05:07
were brought up in the system and it's
00:05:10
their way of seeing the world and that's
00:05:12
an awfully difficult thing to change if
00:05:15
it changes possible at all so I don't
00:05:17
mean it pejoratively but unlike some
00:05:20
people who come at the world from that
00:05:21
position um John McCain has on occasion
00:05:25
spoken of trade as a as a tool for
00:05:28
accomplishing good things
00:05:30
uh good power objectives and the one
00:05:33
that comes to mind obviously is um that
00:05:36
opening up broader trade relationships
00:05:38
with discret countries in the Middle
00:05:40
East would um further US policies in the
00:05:44
Middle East which is probably if not
00:05:46
absolutely true it would also and this
00:05:49
is not that relevant to people who think
00:05:51
this way but it would also open up a lot
00:05:53
of other great things accomplish a lot
00:05:54
of other great things so that's that's
00:05:56
the good um the bad and then you know
00:06:00
the
00:06:01
bad is when um in in a world in which
00:06:07
relationships are being created in new
00:06:11
and unique uh not so much unique but I
00:06:14
guess unique in the context of the Cold
00:06:17
War um but new and exciting and and all
00:06:22
kinds of different
00:06:23
ways um you know the Cold War thinking
00:06:26
locks you into seeing relationships
00:06:29
black and white and seeing relationships
00:06:31
as furthering this objective or
00:06:33
furthering the enemy's objective and and
00:06:36
and that inhibits a lot of creativity a
00:06:38
lot of potential opportunities for
00:06:41
business people not necessarily only us
00:06:44
business people but certainly including
00:06:46
us business
00:06:47
people um you know the world is just
00:06:50
reshaping itself and seeing it this
00:06:53
particular way may not be the most
00:06:55
fruitful the ugly is what we've been
00:06:57
seeing over the last few years the
00:06:59
United States stes is quite
00:07:02
possibly in in the category of you know
00:07:07
most despised
00:07:10
Nations um we have put ourselves in the
00:07:13
in a position where people don't want
00:07:15
interact with us you I've walked down
00:07:17
streets and people have said we won't
00:07:20
buy clothes from the United States
00:07:21
because we don't want to we don't even
00:07:23
want to that much affiliation with the
00:07:24
United States um there's a there's a
00:07:28
really ugly
00:07:30
uh part and it does blow back in
00:07:33
thinking of the world in terms of
00:07:36
enemies and and that are of this
00:07:39
particular ilk and um it's a life or
00:07:43
death struggle I'm talking about the
00:07:45
Cold War I'm not talking about any other
00:07:47
particular War the Cold War probably was
00:07:50
right but it's over and um it's it's
00:07:55
ugly to keep tarring people with that
00:07:58
particular bre
00:08:03
Rush sadly it doesn't seem to be
00:08:05
affecting either of them because you're
00:08:07
your your question gets at a really
00:08:10
pertinent issue the the position of the
00:08:12
United States in the world um is just by
00:08:17
the fact that the world is changing
00:08:20
changing and the candidates keep talking
00:08:22
about trade using just the same old
00:08:25
tired
00:08:26
rhetoric um they're not addressing
00:08:29
really fundamental shifts in how the
00:08:32
world is put
00:08:33
together and you know part of it is if
00:08:36
you step out there and and talk about
00:08:38
these shifts it's really easy as a
00:08:40
political matter to just say you know
00:08:43
he's unpatriotic or she's unpatriotic
00:08:46
and and and and and turn it into you
00:08:50
know
00:08:51
nonsense um we we're not having a real
00:08:56
discussion about these really important
00:08:59
you know things that are going to happen
00:09:00
in the future and how the United States
00:09:02
needs to position itself now as a
00:09:04
political matter and how businesses need
00:09:06
to be supported in positioning
00:09:08
themselves as a relationship matter an
00:09:11
economic or commercial matter just not
00:09:13
getting that
00:09:19
discussion I had the The Good Fortune to
00:09:21
hear uh a gentleman
00:09:25
um in in from Hong Kong and China
00:09:29
addressing a a a a group of primarily
00:09:32
Asian um people in
00:09:35
maau and he he put it pretty succinctly
00:09:39
he said you know for a long time the
00:09:45
world has been structured like
00:09:47
this and um the the there's a a narrow
00:09:52
group of people who are
00:09:54
basically uh enjoying the benefit
00:10:00
provided by a lot of people cheap labor
00:10:03
cheap Commodities um um you know large
00:10:08
amounts of capital that all flow up to
00:10:09
them who get to use
00:10:11
it uh development is not a zero sum game
00:10:14
development doesn't create
00:10:17
this um development doesn't create a
00:10:20
situation in which these people are
00:10:23
replaced by China is a stereotype and
00:10:26
probably a bad one but everyone knows
00:10:28
China
00:10:29
it creates a situation in which the
00:10:32
people from here move up and so there
00:10:35
are a few of them so it creates this
00:10:39
right now um there's going to be more
00:10:44
people who are able to consume more
00:10:47
stuff Services Goods whatever just stuff
00:10:51
um there's going to be more people who
00:10:53
demand more stuff there's going to be
00:10:56
more competition over the basic input
00:10:59
put primarily Commodities there
00:11:01
certainly will be more competition for
00:11:03
cheap labor because there's not going to
00:11:04
be much of that left right
00:11:08
um that that this is
00:11:11
not you know something that we can argue
00:11:15
about
00:11:16
like climate change the rest of the
00:11:19
world isn't arguing about but we are
00:11:21
this isn't something that we can you
00:11:23
know say it ain't gonna happen this is
00:11:27
inevitable the world
00:11:29
develops and it's not Zero
00:11:32
Sum so if you're worried about losing
00:11:35
your job you should
00:11:37
be um if you're worried about
00:11:40
fundamental shifts in the way the world
00:11:43
is put together that that that are going
00:11:44
to affect you you should be that that
00:11:47
that doesn't mean that the answer is the
00:11:49
United States removes itself from this
00:11:52
it can't it it it it is virtually
00:11:55
impossible North Korea is trying and it
00:11:58
isn't working out too well for them and
00:12:01
so you know we need to get past the
00:12:04
whole um you know turning it into a
00:12:08
scare issue that can get some people
00:12:11
elected so they can skim some money and
00:12:13
do whatever the hell they do we need for
00:12:16
the
00:12:17
worker and the supplier and the then the
00:12:20
buyer of Commodities who's now going to
00:12:22
be competing with most of the world we
00:12:24
need them to sit down and say this is
00:12:28
where I am this is where it looks like
00:12:30
the world is headed how do I get where I
00:12:33
want to be and then how do you the
00:12:37
government helped me get there because
00:12:40
the the the the this the usual response
00:12:43
you know we're not going to export jobs
00:12:45
or my opponent blah blah blah that's not
00:12:49
going to get us anywhere this is going
00:12:50
to happen and if the worker who's
00:12:53
worried about losing her job if you know
00:12:55
if all everyone else doesn't understand
00:12:58
this
00:13:05
that's that's a surprisingly complicated
00:13:07
question political borders mean a lot
00:13:11
I'm certainly not here to say that
00:13:12
there's you know one world now now but
00:13:16
but they're they're they're becoming
00:13:18
more and more
00:13:20
permeable and and and and to ignore that
00:13:23
fact is not being patriotic it's being
00:13:27
silly um
00:13:30
but but they do matter they do matter so
00:13:33
there there are things that can be done
00:13:35
in the short run to
00:13:40
um to I don't protect is a good word to
00:13:45
build a wall and a castle and and
00:13:47
isolate yourself from what's going on in
00:13:48
the world but but it's it's it it
00:13:53
is it is almost of necessity only
00:13:57
temporary and so you know you're
00:13:59
basically saying do you manage the
00:14:01
situation now or do you manage the
00:14:03
situation later and that's how you
00:14:05
should be looking at it is managing the
00:14:06
situation you shouldn't be looking at as
00:14:09
how do I prevent this from ever
00:14:10
happening you know it's happening in the
00:14:12
rest of the
00:14:13
world um the United States either either
00:14:17
manages how it it interacts with the
00:14:20
rest of the world or the United States
00:14:22
gets
00:14:23
managed and again you know that's going
00:14:26
to be called unpatriotic and United
00:14:28
States this United States that but I
00:14:31
can't think of a good business person
00:14:33
out there who would say no you don't
00:14:36
manage situations you know this is
00:14:39
what's happening manage it um
00:14:43
protectionism yeah it may buy you some
00:14:45
votes for a while and yeah it may it may
00:14:48
misallocate some money for a while
00:14:50
because protectionism always involves
00:14:52
losers um you know there's always
00:14:54
someone who loses from that but in in in
00:14:57
the long run you know you know it it it
00:15:01
can't it can't Shield us from the change
00:15:06
and I I Ed the word change instead of
00:15:08
hurt because if it's
00:15:11
managed at all but particularly if it's
00:15:13
managed well it's a great thing you know
00:15:16
it's a wonderful thing there's abundant
00:15:18
opportunities in in the way the world is
00:15:25
moving well um no obviously not
00:15:29
uh and and one you know one interesting
00:15:32
thing about
00:15:34
this is um
00:15:38
eventually you know
00:15:41
the US Labor will be as competitive if
00:15:47
not more competitive than it has been in
00:15:49
the past you know we're going through an
00:15:51
interesting period now but if you look
00:15:52
at China um and I hate to always use
00:15:55
China it's it's kind of lazy but
00:15:59
everybody does and and there's a lot of
00:16:01
numbers out there and stuff if you look
00:16:02
at China the the cost of Labor in China
00:16:05
has risen to the point where a lot of
00:16:07
factories in China are are moving
00:16:09
shutting down um you know China is not
00:16:14
like the only place in the world that's
00:16:15
ever going to
00:16:17
develop um it's going to happen
00:16:21
elsewhere and eventually there's going
00:16:23
to be more consumers in China than there
00:16:25
are labors in fact um they're looking at
00:16:28
I think 2019 is the date when that
00:16:30
magical event occurs
00:16:33
um you know the us through smart
00:16:36
application of of uh technology and
00:16:40
smart application of management
00:16:41
techniques and with changing costs of
00:16:44
transportation and and all kinds of
00:16:47
things um you know us labor has a place
00:16:50
a great place in the changing World on
00:16:52
the other hand if US Labor just and and
00:16:55
and and other aspects of the US just
00:16:57
hides behind you know let's keep things
00:16:59
the way they always
00:17:01
were and not so much you know the way
00:17:04
things always
00:17:05
were we almost always referring to the
00:17:08
1950s when most of the other
00:17:10
industrialized nations had been bombed
00:17:12
back to the Stone Age in World War II
00:17:14
that ain't happening no matter how many
00:17:16
walls we put
00:17:18
up um that a't happening but you know so
00:17:22
no we can't retrain US Labor the
00:17:25
entirety of it we don't need to we need
00:17:27
to just think we to talk about it in
00:17:29
different ways which isn't happening
00:17:30
right
00:17:34
now it's again their explicit language I
00:17:39
would give a slight Edge to um McCain
00:17:42
John
00:17:43
McCain uh with his um more creative use
00:17:48
of trade to uh as a diplomatic
00:17:52
tool um but the underlying
00:17:56
positions um they they don't they don't
00:17:58
talk about it
00:18:00
explicitly but you know the McCain's
00:18:03
advisers
00:18:05
are more of the same um it's it's hard
00:18:08
to picture them thinking about this
00:18:11
creatively as as business people would
00:18:14
uh it's it's easier to think of them
00:18:16
thinking of this in the same
00:18:18
old political
00:18:23
way for more information please visit
00:18:26
knowledge. won. up.edu you
