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whoa whoa whoa sax found the gel oh my God this guy he's running for office if
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he shows up with the red tide next week we're [ __ ] that's the end of the show he shows up with a red tide a blue shirt
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are you coming out of your law retirement are you going to be an active lawyer defending Trump sax you look really good I got to say with the with
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the job that was that's a really good look for it let's go to the shower use the comb oh the weekly shower in Italy
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good luck right it's not a bad look did you use soap did you uh oh no
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I didn't have time didn't have 90 seconds yeah I didn't want to keep you guys waiting another two minutes
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[Music] Rain Man David
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son we open source it to the fans and
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they've just gone crazy [Music]
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all right everybody welcome to another episode of the all in podcast it is
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August and we just might have had the most consequential week in terms of
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politics and science in a long time could be it could be the week of the year freeburg's been going
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nuts inside the group chat because everyone is trying to replicate this LK
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99 room temperature or semiconductor experiment superconductor superconductor
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yes so God I mean this has been what has
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it been like 10 days and now everybody is on Twitter trying to recreate this maybe I should just let you cue this up
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Freeburg since this is the first time perhaps the last that we're going to start the show at science corner so
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science Corner takeover week tell us is this legit because you flip
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from this is a fraud to this is changing the world like every day you you seem to
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have a new piece of evidence where where are you today with this is this the real I mean it's probably it's probably
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somewhere in the middle but it leads to a path that could get us to the Holy Grail
00:02:00
which is room temperature superconducting material which we've talked about twice on the show before and I encourage folks to go look at the
00:02:07
episode we did a couple ago after the original claim was made a few months ago that turned out to not be true but the
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description in the paper that came out on how to make this material was chased
00:02:20
by hundreds of labs around the world over the last few days folks have been live streaming it on these Chinese websites Billy Billy and Twitter and
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twitch everyone from Russian scientists to Chinese to Korean
00:02:34
to American to European I will say one thing that I think is really profound
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which it is this is the first time in a very long time that I've seen so many people
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share a unified voice about optimism about an abundant future optimism about
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a big breakthrough rather than get on social media to share a voice about fear
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and anger at someone or something and to hear everyone around the world get together and be excited about the
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potential of this discovery and its applications it's really profound to see and it's really amazing and wonderful to see now
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where we are a bunch of labs took the described chemical structure of this
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material LK 99 which has lead and phosphorus oxygen and some copper in it
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and put it into these modeling systems these computer modeling systems to try and understand where do the electrons
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flow where do the electrons sit in this material if this material is made the way it's described
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and five different Labs have now published papers that show that the way that this
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material is supposedly produced it should create these Pathways or these energy states with the electrons that
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theoretically could enable superconductivity at a very high temperature and so that's an um a very
00:03:55
confirmatory signal that computer modeling of the electron clouds because remember electrons even though they move
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around the nucleus of an atom we only kind of have a probability statement of where they are so if you look at all the
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probability statements of all the atoms stuck together and you try and figure out what's the aggregate probability of
00:04:13
where electrons are it indicates that there are these Pathways that theoretically could allow for electrons
00:04:19
to move freely through the material and be completely void of any sort of resistance which is superconductivity
00:04:26
and and so that's what's really profound about the modeling outputs from five very separate independent Labs just so
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we're clear when electricity normally moves down an electric wire or in
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computers and CPUs gpus whatever there's resistance that resistance results in
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loss it results in Heat and the only way we've been able to reduce that loss is by making it freezing cold like
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significantly cold totally right yeah so now if we were to do this when we didn't
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have to make a call that means it these superconducting experiments move from the laboratory where it's forced to be
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called to the real world our desktop you use an analogy in chat although it was really interesting of like a
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superconducting road where and then you don't lose energy right now how much energy do we lose transporting into our
00:05:13
houses right so you know I would say on the order of 70 of energy we produce is
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lost to heat and friction think about moving a car down the road when you move a car down the road you're having to put
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energy in to overcome the friction of the car hitting the road so if the car could hover above the road the friction
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goes away and the energy needed to move the car goes way way down when you build a data center the electrons that are
00:05:36
moving through the copper and the semiconductors bump into other atoms when they bump into the atoms in the material they shake those atoms when
00:05:42
atoms shake that is heat so that's why copper wire heats up when you put electricity through it you're moving
00:05:48
electrons through it some of those electrons bump into the copper atoms shakes the copper atoms they get hot and
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then some of the electrons make their way through the rate at which electrons are bumping into other atoms is the
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resistance of the material so um and so so all this energy is going into cooling down data centers and all this energy is
00:06:05
lost in Computing uh to heat and uh same in electric motors could be reinvented
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semiconductors to integrated circuits would be reinvented and like I said if you had an off of this material you
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could put it in roads and because superconductors also reflect magnetic fields you could put magnets on the
00:06:22
bottom of cars and Float them above the ground and cruise around without any friction
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this 70 loss of and then all this energy put into cooling data centers we could be looking
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at doubling or tripling the amount of energy available because we've built a certain amount of energy
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infrastructure so this would be all gains if we could figure out how to yeah technology massive and massive abundance
00:06:49
it would lower the cost of electricity by 10 100 I mean look assuming huge
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infrastructure Investments which would take probably decades to do sure you would you would get there but in the near term there are these incredible
00:07:00
applications quantum computers are built using little superconductors as the
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qubit and so the superconductor holds the qubit state so this idea that we could now have room temperature Quantum
00:07:12
Computing is also a very profound one game changer low cost and and the first thing that would be changed is likely
00:07:18
electronic components so we would take electronic components and redesign them using superconducting material that
00:07:24
would allow you to reduce heat loss and energy loss and that would have a big transformative effect on for example the
00:07:29
big effort right now to make more AI chips GPU chips to do Matrix Transformations there are some precedent
00:07:35
for this people are now creating Optical Bridges between gpus and CPUs in order
00:07:41
to reduce the heat so they're using Optics basically light to transfer data interconnects yeah yeah that's been the
00:07:47
big lift right now from what I understand in gpus and data centers is
00:07:53
yeah it's it I mean we could go on for hours on that but like yes I mean this would just be a game changer Electronic
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Component photonic chips right yeah photonic chips but look this this is obviously a little bit separate
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but here's where we are so LK 99 there's all these simulation models that show this thing could work but there's two
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two things I will say came out of this from some of the simulations the first is remember this is a crystal with
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mostly lead atoms and these lead atoms some of them get replaced by copper and
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when when they get replaced by copper it causes the crystal structure to change by 0.46 degrees is what the Koreans say
00:08:29
the angle changes by 0.460 race and when that happens that bending causes the electrons in all the atoms and the
00:08:35
Crystal to overlap slightly and that overlapping effect causes this free-flowing electron tunnel uh that
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theoret that is the theory for why the superconduct now what the simulation showed is that you have to replace only
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one of the lead atoms not any of the other ones in order for this to work and that could explain why everyone's having
00:08:55
different results in the lab trying to reproduce this because when you bake this stuff in an oven if the copper gets
00:09:01
into the wrong atom space in the crystal it doesn't work and so that's why some of these things might end up looking
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good and some of them don't look good and some of them there's a lab yesterday in China that published no resistance
00:09:13
but they had to cool it down to 100 degrees below freezing and so it wasn't at room temperature but it did
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superconduct it did have no resistance 170 Kelvin I think yeah so 100 100 below zero so there is a
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key there is a key here in the molecular structure that you have to just thread perfectly right you have to replace the
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right lead atom with the copper in order for this to work and so that's a technically very and what happens so
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that's a Fidelity issue that's a tool issue like you have to have the right tool to do it or is it luck or right now
00:09:44
so here's the crazy story and I'll tell you guys this I don't know how real this is but the guy's claim so remember these
00:09:50
two scientists Lee and Kim supposedly saw this material in a lab in 1999
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that's why it's called LK Lee and Kim 99. and so in 99 they came across this and they could not replicate it and they
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had no idea how to make it again and it disappeared and they didn't have the sample again they then spent the next 20
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years of their life one was a college professor and the other one worked for LG for as a battery engineer and they
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just had these random normal everyday lives it reminds me of Dennis Quaid in the movie The Rookie where he had like
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this amazing arm and he was going to go to the MLB and then something happened and he spent the rest of his life at his High School PE teacher and then 20 years
00:10:27
later he gets his arm back and he goes to the MLB and he plays in a Major League baseball game because all of a sudden in during covet these guys got
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some funding they set up a company they went into a lab and they rediscovered this material and apparently this is the
00:10:39
rumor I don't know if this is real the rumor is they had it they were baking it in an oven in a vacuum sealed tube and
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when the guy took it out of the oven he accidentally bumped into a table and the tube cracked and when the tube cracked
00:10:51
it did something to the material and then they measured it and oh my God it's room temperature superconductor that's the current theory of what the rumor of
00:10:58
what happened in the video that's like Peter Parker being bitten by a radioactive spider I mean it doesn't
00:11:03
make any sense so here's the drama this guy one got inserted to oversee them as like their
00:11:09
CTO the guy that gave the money to Q Center said he's got to oversee you Quan apparently got fired from his job in
00:11:15
March and he was kicked out of this company was no longer Affiliated and the rumor is that Quan took all the lab data
00:11:22
and these guys in 2020 during covet they discovered this they started filing patents and working on the manufacturing
00:11:27
process trying to figure out how to replicate it and do it again they had all this data but they weren't going to publish it they didn't want the world to know about it yet and then all of a
00:11:33
sudden Quan gathers all this data probably disgruntled after getting fired puts it into a paper and puts it on the
00:11:39
internet so that's the first paper that came out because there's a website called
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r-a-r-x-i-v is there a pronunciation for this website so this is where you can open source file scientific papers right
00:11:51
okay so this is a place for dropping papers outside of the the traditional
00:11:58
Journal yeah the traditional Journal process requires peer review and there's editors at the journal that decide
00:12:04
whether or not to publish your paper so sometimes the keepers yeah Gatekeepers and so if you don't want to do that you just want to get a story out to the
00:12:10
world right away so during covet everyone was publishing on the site all their updates on Research they were doing to help the world figure out
00:12:16
what's going on with covid so it's a great place to just hit the world with your data hit the world with your findings this is like acoustic raw
00:12:22
papers and it's called archive a-r-x.org if you want to go see it
00:12:28
archive so anyone anyone can publish a PDF no one knows if it's real or not it hasn't been peer reviewed Etc so this
00:12:34
guy is one yeah so Quan drops the paper with his name he came and Quan on the paper only three people can win a Nobel
00:12:41
Prize so the theory is he did this to get his name out there to make sure he could lock in his name for the Nobel Prize wow and then within a day Lee and
00:12:49
Kim and four people they've been working with some including some folks in the U.S publish another paper with better
00:12:55
data but it was also rushed out and so both papers are pretty ugly I gotta be honest they're like pretty messy they
00:13:01
don't have a great deal of clarity there's errors in them there's mistakes there's redundancy there's little basic chart editing errors stupid stuff
00:13:07
clearly this was a rushed job but these guys rushed out and said you know what if this is going to be public we now have to correct the the story and say
00:13:14
what happens they wanted to get their claim in to get their Nobel Peace Prize which would indicate that would lean
00:13:21
towards a piece of evidence as would people funding them 25 years later that would indicate maybe there's something
00:13:27
there two things worth noting on the simulation stuff number one obviously you got to get the copper in the right place and the production way to do that
00:13:34
how do we actually engineer that to happen it's not really clear baking it in an oven clearly it's creating what's
00:13:40
called heterogeneous results meaning everyone's getting different results around the world that have been doing this for the last couple days and
00:13:46
everyone's really confused is this real is it fake I don't know but that simulation explains why there's maybe lots of different results another
00:13:52
comment it turns out that one of the simulation teams said hey if you put gold instead of copper in the spot it's
00:13:58
a better superconductor it could actually be a better material so it's opening up all these paths for exploration that we had never considered
00:14:06
before that there's this whole new approach to creating superconducting materials that was not on anyone's radar
00:14:11
before so this is opening up a whole new realm and I think this is going to unfold over the next couple of years with more material Discovery more
00:14:17
invention coming off of this initial discovery simulation model that then up offers all these other opportunities for
00:14:24
creating potentially new materials that maybe are easier to manufacture and better to produce and the final thing
00:14:29
I'll say is that there are some teams that are commenting that are saying that this thing may be superconducting but only on one
00:14:36
dimension which means along a line of atoms or line of molecules in the material so normal superconductors think
00:14:44
about them as like a 3D Matrix and the electrons can flow through freely through any direction through the Matrix
00:14:50
through the Crystal and in this case they're saying the electrons can only flow freely across a line in this
00:14:57
material and so now there's another question of wait how do you manufacture lots of lines to run in parallel to make
00:15:02
this thing truly superconducting at scale so that's all the hard technical stuff that's emerging right now whether
00:15:08
or not this actually does turn into a room temperature superconducting material that can be industrialized and
00:15:13
used in all these applications everyone's really excited about I think it's probably months to years away from knowing but at this point there's a
00:15:21
great set of indications that oh my God we might be onto something new there's a whole new path of Discovery a whole new
00:15:26
path of engineering and invention and it's amazing to just see everyone gather around this I get so excited about it because it really will uh changed so
00:15:33
much about the world and create extraordinary abundance and prosperity for Humanity if this proves to be real
00:15:39
and industrializable and scalable can I ask a simple question when you say if this proves to be real if nobody has
00:15:46
reproduced the result why is there any belief that this is real there are properties of this that
00:15:51
look I think we have to take a step back we have found superconductive materials
00:15:58
in the past there are many ceramics that are superconductive Mercury is superconductive there's all kinds of
00:16:04
elements and materials and compounds in the physical world that we've already figured out have these properties so
00:16:10
this is not like a new thing that's never been found before it's just this idea of trying to find it at a certain
00:16:16
temperature where it could exist naturally in the normal world without all this expensive cooling okay but
00:16:23
there is a separate thing which is that we also have found a whole bunch of
00:16:28
materials that look and behave like
00:16:33
superconductors but are really not they're what's called just diomagnetic and I think right now what what people
00:16:40
are trying to sort out is is this a clever diamagnet is this diamagnetism or is it
00:16:47
superconductive and these are huge differences that swing this from yeah
00:16:53
it's kind of a cool thing and yeah whatever there's a bunch of other materials we found that are like this to wow this is transformational and right
00:16:59
now we don't know any of that and I think that all of the mystery around this is mostly because people can be on
00:17:06
one side of the debate or the other literally by the second based on what new simulation or what new piece of
00:17:13
research people are putting out there but you have to remember like diet magnetism is like a property of
00:17:20
matter superconductivity is a state of matter it is totally different all
00:17:25
superconductors are diamagnetic but all diamagnets are not superconductive so we could just be
00:17:32
extremely excited about not much of anything or this could really be a breakthrough
00:17:39
if what the Chinese guy said is that they were able to cool this thing down and get it to be super conductive then
00:17:44
that doesn't identity K it doesn't mean much in my opinion right it's not room temperature but it does indicate that
00:17:50
this material can be super conductive look there are many materials like this there's like a lot of forms of red
00:17:56
matter that we've already found that at that temperature gradient at that range of temperatures can be superconductive
00:18:02
it's not practically useful at that point yeah that's right I don't think you're going to see like some massive
00:18:08
Revolution so on the betting man I make bets I think I've talked about when there was this guy Rhonda Diaz that had
00:18:14
to try this stuff and he was sort of refuted in what he was working on but 18 months before that happened I was trying
00:18:19
to get a deal done with the University of Rochester to buy all that IP so I've been grinding in and around this space
00:18:25
for a couple of years my intuition on this is that this is diamagnetic
00:18:30
and I think and I think we're going to find that you know it was it's like yet
00:18:36
another material added to the list of materials and it's okay but hopefully what it really does is it
00:18:43
is it Sparks an interest in um in a lot of other people putting more money behind this Nick if you could pull up
00:18:49
this manifold markets uh there's a prediction Market called manifold.markets that people have been
00:18:55
sharing a link from betting markets where people bet either side of this will LK
00:19:01
99 room temp ambient pressure serving conductivity pre-print replicate before
00:19:06
2025 and you can see it's about 30 chance you what do you think of the prediction markets assessing this Free
00:19:12
Bird yeah I think relevance probably that's probably a good handicap for where we are I'll say when you look at a
00:19:20
diamagnetic material and so what that means a die magnet will expel magnetic
00:19:25
fields of both polarities a paramagnet will reflect the North or the South Pole
00:19:31
its North Pole will reflect the North Pole of another magnetic material right diamagnets you can put North or South
00:19:36
Pole and they reflect both and there's plenty of videos you can watch of putting a frog in like a 10
00:19:43
Tesla machine and the Frog floats technically a frog is diamond magnetic but what happens typically with
00:19:49
diamagnetic materials is they Orient themselves while they're while they're freely floating into a particular
00:19:54
direction so there's going to be three things people are going to be looking for in terms of confirmatory proof on LK
00:19:59
99 the first is does this material float like a superconductor over a magnetic field because remember superconductors
00:20:05
perfectly expel magnetic fields they are dimagnets to the uh absolute degree they
00:20:11
perfectly reflect all magnetic fields so if you put a superconducting material above a magnetic field it should kind of
00:20:16
float freely and spin around and stuff if it orients back to one position it probably means that there's something
00:20:22
going on where it's maybe not a perfect superconductor now all these video the
00:20:27
second thing you're going to look for is zero resistance so can you actually pass an electric charge through it and have no resistance in the material so you're
00:20:33
seeing data coming out now that's indicating we're seeing that but we're seeing at a low temperature no one's yet
00:20:38
replicated this at room temperature and the third thing is a transition which means that there's a point where it
00:20:44
shifts because that's a classic characteristic of superconducting materials if there's a transition temperature transition phase where the
00:20:51
material becomes superconducting or it's not super conducting um so those kind of generally those
00:20:57
three experimental proof points or what everyone's looking for thus far the videos we've seen look like UFO or
00:21:02
Bigfoot videos they're friggin grainy they're like you know you guys have seen some of these videos that have come out they're like at a distance it's like
00:21:09
wait why didn't you do the whole angle why did you only take a picture why didn't you do the video there's this woman in Russia right now in UFO
00:21:16
territory people are look at this I mean it's super like there's a rock there's a little flake of here's a video of a
00:21:23
little flake of a material that someone supposedly made in the lab or it could be done
00:21:28
right and they put it over the super over a very strong magnet and this is the video they got it's super blurry
00:21:33
there's a woman in Russia and she totally reinvented the manufacturing process she's actually well-known
00:21:39
scientist so she's not BS and she said I made this thing in my house using a furnace and I used a whole new process
00:21:44
so she does this whole new process she live streams the whole thing and then she puts out a video of the thing
00:21:50
floating in a straw it's sorry a video photo and it's a blurry photo and people are like show us the video show us that
00:21:56
it's real and she's refusing to so this whole thing is feeling a little like there's UFO Bigfoot type people out
00:22:01
there that we're not really seeing Clarity on is this real and then obviously the resistance data there's very credible academic universities
00:22:08
coming out and I will also say there are a number of labs there's one in China and the one in China that measured the
00:22:13
the zero resistance at negative 100 degrees they created 8 000 samples so they found
00:22:20
one that worked there's another lab that did eight different Pathways of manufacturing it in China and they said
00:22:25
we can't find any of that work yet so you know there's a lot of negative indications as well which is why the
00:22:31
prediction markets are probably right but I do think that this theoretical explanation that you have to get the
00:22:37
copper atom to replace the correct lead atom in the crystal structure explains a
00:22:43
lot of the heterogeneity and results and the reason why people may not be able to replicate this and if someone could crack the code on how do we actually
00:22:49
engineer this thing and produce it correctly uh based on the theory maybe we'll see different better results but
00:22:55
again that's also theoretical because no one seems to have nailed a manufacturing process here so lots of data coming in
00:23:01
every day by next week we could be clapping and you know cheering or you know we could sort of be on this very
00:23:07
long grind sort of like Russia Ukraine just a long grind and it's a it'll last
00:23:12
years and maybe someone will win maybe someone won't or maybe it just opens up a whole new set of Explorations for new
00:23:18
superconducting materials at room temperature that could change the world I gotta say the thing I love most about this is like we have this Oppenheimer
00:23:25
film comes out and at the same time this happens we got the UFO testimonials you
00:23:32
know uh Congressional hearings all of this energy at the same time of people who are just really stoked do Material
00:23:38
Science to do basic science to figure out big problems and uh I agree with you
00:23:43
the optimism around all this is is I mean something else tell me
00:23:49
something else in our lifetime in our in the last decade or two where we've seen the whole world say in a positive way
00:23:56
something great Could Happen instead of something bad could happen and someone's to blame for something I mean it really
00:24:02
is in my mind the first time I've really seen this happen in a very long time maybe the internet was a was it yeah
00:24:09
yeah everybody being connected everybody being able to share information
00:24:14
they're doing it on Twitter and Billy Billy and YouTube and like all sharing this stuff and saying my gosh we could
00:24:20
have this breakthrough together as a as a civil as a species not like a country not a individual not a who messed up who
00:24:28
did something wrong who's to blame who's on the other side it's like dude if we all do if this happens we're all gonna
00:24:34
be like chilling on the beach it's gonna be amazing like this is awesome we're gonna have a rash of VCS running
00:24:41
into this next and start funding the stuff Material Science yeah yeah I mean my attitude is
00:24:48
kind of like wake me up when you know it's real it's nice that if this is real then it's
00:24:58
great that there's all this positive energy around it but that's like a big caveat until we know that there's
00:25:03
something real here I think it's premature for everybody to say that this
00:25:08
is like some wonderful thing now if we find out that the science is real and then it's just a debate over commercialization of it then yeah I
00:25:15
agree that would be like a really positive moment I just love the fact that when something positive in the world happens or when something negative
00:25:20
happens we have this amazing platform for everybody social media x.com formerly Twitter
00:25:26
where everybody can get together around this campfire and just start discussing it and speculating now some people don't
00:25:31
like speculation obviously if there's a school shooting or a tragedy a building burns down uh the fog of War as we've
00:25:37
seen in the constant Ukraine coverage you know you can have it's very easy to
00:25:44
make mistakes the stuff in real time but I love the real-time nature of the world
00:25:49
and the pace we're moving at it's it's kind of delightful it's not a problem with the speculation and there is a fun
00:25:54
element to it but when you start talking about investing in it like I said wake me up when you know
00:26:00
it's real there's a really funny meme that VC Bragg's posted
00:26:06
[Laughter]
00:26:15
and not paying attention to the drowning kid it's sort of like the guy who's
00:26:20
holding hands with his girlfriend but looking over his shoulder and whistling at The Other Woman by and
00:26:26
superconductors is the happy little kid VCS is the mom and Jenner of AI is drowning but then they show him the
00:26:33
underwater yeah somebody who's tied to a chair with chains of the last hype cycle yeah the last hype cycle Creator economy
00:26:40
crypto we have three yeah it's pretty funny it's pretty it's pretty sexy I um I told you about this when we were in
00:26:45
Italy last week but uh when I was 13 years old Jay Cowell can make fun of me now I did a science fair project on
00:26:51
superconductor actually I was doing it when I was 13. and I bought this superconductor from the back of Popular
00:26:57
Science magazine you know this old Atrium barium copper oxide that was the one that won the Nobel Prize you could buy it for nothing and I got liquid
00:27:04
nitrogen at UCLA and I get a demo at the science fair and I did a poster board and I I had hyper card on a Macintosh LC
00:27:10
and I showed everyone this is the future we're about to have room temperature superconductors it's about to happen and
00:27:16
we're gonna have flying cars and we're gonna have Limitless energy and Limitless battery storage for energy by
00:27:21
the way which is one of the big applications and it's it's just on the break and this was when I was 13 years old 1993. you
00:27:29
know here we are 30 30 years old 30 years later and everyone feels like this moment
00:27:35
might be upon us but it has been this thing that's always been elusive that everyone's always thought it's around the corner well it sounds like cold
00:27:40
fusion you know we've always been 10 years away for some breakthrough in cold shoes self-driving cars
00:27:46
artificial general intelligence yeah well I think there's a difference between this physical world Material
00:27:52
Sciences type Innovation and then software Innovation and one of Peter thiel's critiques is that we've had
00:27:59
tremendous Innovation and software but in every other aspect of the economy there's been little snow Innovation
00:28:06
planes for example are getting slower not faster would you believe that position from from him I I don't buy
00:28:12
that position well I mean with the exception of like what Elon has been doing with the genomics the genomic Revolution he
00:28:19
misses life science entirely in that point I don't know I mean genomics I mean largely software based at this
00:28:25
point if you look at that Revolution driven by Gene editing oncology the breakthroughs I mean look it's all
00:28:31
slowing down I do agree with him if you look at the number of um approved drugs every year and the cost per drug cost
00:28:37
per drug is going the wrong direction and the number of drugs per year is going in the wrong direction
00:28:42
so there is an argument to be made there but there there are arguably some Quantum leaps in the types of medicine
00:28:49
that we're applying we didn't have biologics you know 40 years ago we didn't have gene therapy 10 years ago
00:28:55
these are new modalities for for therapies that didn't exist as we've engineered the molecular world to do
00:29:00
amazing things in the biochemical application space so I think um there's elements of this that I disagree with
00:29:06
but I think the general trend lines as he points out is totally true yeah but with planes I think we made a conscious
00:29:11
decision he always cites the plane issue hey we don't have the Concord we're going backwards in terms of speed I think that was a deliberate
00:29:19
cost cutting measure because people aren't willing to pay to go faster and burn more fuel so they're particularly
00:29:25
enough Innovation the price gets cheaper that's right that's right yeah same with the electricity same with energy
00:29:30
electricity is getting more expensive not cheaper but if you look at the NASA if we wouldn't have the massive gains in
00:29:37
artificial intelligence and machine learning if it hadn't been for the revolution in GPU storage and data
00:29:43
centers and microprocessors and that's kind of the point is that we were
00:29:49
promised flying cars and instead we got 280 characters not that Twitter slash X is bad but that's just where all the
00:29:56
innovation has been is an I.T that I agree with you so they figure it out they keep figuring out how to put more circuits on a transistor or whatever and
00:30:03
you know keep Moore's Law going or I don't know I could show you can use but I could make a different argument by
00:30:08
showing you human lifespan and agricultural yields I mean agricultural yields continue to climb because of our
00:30:14
ability to engineer in a smarter and Better Way Every Generation there there's a there's a lot of counter
00:30:19
arguments to them I would say what's valid about it is we go ahead I was going to say the reason you we don't see
00:30:26
these kinds of Innovations is because the ruling class has clogged up and sclerodically dominated all the places
00:30:32
where you'd have this massive forms of innovation like regulatory capture no they're not no no no that's
00:30:40
like I'm talking about that's like a boogeyman so get the boogeyman out the regular Droid capture is there forever
00:30:45
like why was this paper published on arkson because every other form of
00:30:51
publishing mechanism is sclerotic it's establishment it's hierarchical it's about people basically dominating their
00:30:58
own little forms of Paola right and so nature Jama all of this stuff works this
00:31:04
way and so what happens you don't get fundamental innovations that happen in Labs you have things that feed research
00:31:10
proposals that feed people who need to basically establish their Supremacy you
00:31:15
saw the Stanford Professor get booted up because of stuff that you know he the president of Stanford the president said
00:31:22
so why is all this happening well Peter is right the reason why this stuff is happening is that instead of places where true fundamental Innovation can
00:31:28
happen if you look at the Nobel Prize winners and you do distribution by age what do you find
00:31:33
people win no bells in their 60s for work that they did in their 20s and 30s right and so you have a system now that
00:31:41
rewards people staying in their positions I wrote this in one of my annual letters if you look at the
00:31:47
average age of like leading people in schools they're like 70 years old if you look inside of Congress so there's this
00:31:54
all of this stuff that just kind of sclerodically prevents young naive people from basically going out and
00:32:01
really pushing the boundaries in specifically this case of Science of fundamental science and so for every
00:32:06
Innovation I think the question to ask is what other Innovations are we missing and if Innovations are on a
00:32:12
fundamentally well-established pathway that defends a bunch of work of senior people before it
00:32:18
it'll get supported and I would say that genetics is a perfect example of that the other if you look at the if you look
00:32:25
at the number of rare diseases that have still that are still like unsolved or the lack of understanding of immuno
00:32:30
disease it's just crazy like it's I just think that that's really what's happening I think Peter's more right
00:32:35
than he's wrong the other issue here sax is and I like to get your feedback on this is if you look at how Venture
00:32:41
Capital works you got a 10-year window you want to get returns for your LPS you look at how this fundamental research we
00:32:48
just said this started in 1999 that's why it's called Dash 99. this thing took 25 years to get to this point
00:32:55
is is part of this issue that you have this big opportunity zone between say
00:33:01
Ventures window 10 years and then Academia which you put at like four
00:33:06
decades there tomorrow 20 you know year olds getting their rewards in their 60s how much of this has to do if we don't
00:33:12
have a platform in between Venture and Academia that's not the problem I mean so it's true that VC funding typically
00:33:21
you want to go to the commercialization of an idea and that the underlying
00:33:26
platform shift it already exists and usually that comes from some sort of breakthrough that happened in Academia I
00:33:32
mean that's basically what happened with the internet so yeah you do not want VC funding typically going to
00:33:39
basic r d you know fundamental science r d it's just really expensive takes too
00:33:44
long and too unknown so you want that stuff kind of done more at the academic level the question I have is how much of
00:33:52
what's happening in Academia is basically either irrelevant or fraudulent such a
00:33:57
mouth you brought the Stanford president I think the the story there is he had five papers about Alzheimer's research
00:34:04
and you know related topics like that where they found out that the papers are basically bogus and
00:34:11
quasi fraudulent so how much of the the work that's being done in Academia how
00:34:16
many of these papers are basically bogus well the thing with peer review is like it's presented like it's a great
00:34:22
incredible solution to the world's problems but I think what it has inherently wrong with it so the positive
00:34:28
part of it is theoretically you have error correction right but here what you
00:34:33
don't find is that that error correction actually even happened and so it takes like some young 20 year old kid at
00:34:39
Stanford who's a journalist whose family were journalist to basically figure that out so instead what were those what were
00:34:45
those papers doing they were supporting a rising up and coming person because they thought that you know he would
00:34:51
support them at some point this is like the whole corrupt Fouche system at the end of the age and sax are presenting academia's
00:34:58
corrupt do you agree with that I don't know if corrupt is the right term because I think that implies male intent
00:35:04
I think that the incentives are wrong so in order to get funded you have to show results no one gets a grant to disprove
00:35:12
someone else's work no one gets a grant to do confirmatory work on someone else's work should that Grant you get it
00:35:20
yeah I mean that's that's the argument that that some folks make you get a grant to do breakthrough research and
00:35:25
have breakthroughs and if you have breakthroughs you get more money that's the way the system is set up but this is
00:35:31
this guy this is why well let me just say it's corrupt I think so it's corrupt there's no funny breakthroughs come on
00:35:37
okay whatever you want to Define it as the guy the guy at Stanford if you read some of the testimony from people in his
00:35:43
labs they said that he encouraged people to have big findings and if you get big findings you get to progress in the
00:35:50
organization you get more funding Etc so the the incentive structure that he set up for people was not necessarily
00:35:56
to go in and disprove stuff or try something and show that it didn't work if you try something and show that it
00:36:02
didn't work and publish a paper on that it's going to be very hard for you to turn around and get a trophy or get some
00:36:08
money there was like a bunch of error in the data that they went back and were like hey this is this is incorrect and he's
00:36:14
like oh yeah it was sloppy I just didn't do a good job of reviewing it so yeah so what happened was if you read some of
00:36:21
the testimony the people that worked in his Labs the students and the The Graduate students and so on they said that he basically encouraged people to
00:36:27
get good results and in that process and in that way there was some fuzziness in the data or
00:36:33
some tweaking of the data that he didn't double check for sure but he was encouraging this sort of system of
00:36:39
performance and the system of performance says you've got to show results you can't show non-results and
00:36:44
if you show non-results there's no money and there yeah the reason they're doing that is marketing they want to Market
00:36:50
and get more attention so they get more donations yeah exactly the problem with
00:36:55
with a pure research is that you have to get funding to do your research where do you get your funding from you get your
00:37:00
funding from federal agencies from non-profits from your um you know your donors and so in order to get that money
00:37:07
you have to say here's what I'm going to do here's not what here's you don't say I'm gonna go not prove something you see
00:37:13
I'm gonna go proof something no no the problem is you're hiding the cheese can you part of the Jesus Jesus
00:37:18
are saying I'm not I'm not most of these people are working on very thin incremental
00:37:25
extensions of work that's already been done because it allows them a more defined path to get tenure ship to be a
00:37:33
well-respected professor to work through the hierarchy of a university that's what's happening today and the reason why that stuff gets
00:37:40
funded is that those are the same people that are in charge of the funding infrastructure at NIH and all these other places what we don't have
00:37:47
is something that says go and write the most ambitious proposals and I'm gonna go fund it I think both things are true
00:37:53
I'm sorry let's get mechanism I'll just say both things are true because what you're saying chamoth is a point of
00:38:00
failure if you say I'm gonna go try something crazy like do a search for a room temperature superconductor using
00:38:06
lead crystals you're not going to get funding for that it's two out there I mean you guys today are talking about
00:38:11
how low probability stuff isn't that interesting I'm not going to fund it until it's real and so when things are
00:38:16
real you have some molecule that has some effect on cancer cells then you get funding to
00:38:22
make that molecule go to the next phase or go to the next stage that is more fundable than the outlandish crazy thing
00:38:27
where the probability of it going to zero is 99 you can throw Elizabeth Holmes into that right I mean she came
00:38:33
up with this absurd idea that she could do 200 tests on one drop of blood
00:38:38
that was just a statement about engineering that wasn't ready another company it just got funded to do the
00:38:44
same thing that thoroughness promises gonna do yeah do you see this but I I did not say that no yeah I mean some
00:38:51
pretty good VCS invested in it actually and they expressly said we know this is the same idea as theranos but for that
00:38:56
very reason we think it's very unlikely to be fraud because it's being held to such a high standard of scrutiny I want
00:39:02
you guys to think about this I want you guys to think about this as VCS an entrepreneur comes to you and the
00:39:08
entrepreneur she says I've done this thing I did this thing I did this thing I did this thing I did this thing five different things none of them were
00:39:14
I want to have money to do this next thing you're less likely to fund that person than the entrepreneur that shows
00:39:19
up and says the first thing I did work the second thing I did work the third startup I did worked they weren't home
00:39:24
runs it and I had good results that's basically what happened in in you know
00:39:30
the scientific research is you've got to get something that's fundable and often that means not doing something that's
00:39:36
likely to go to zero and that's where the incrementalism comes in chamoth is that orientation I think that I hate to
00:39:41
uh give my playbook but one of the great successes I've had is finding people who got their asses kicked on the last two
00:39:46
companies talking to them about why they got their asses kicked and then how they're going to avoid getting their
00:39:52
asses handed to them with this third company then if you look at Travis with Uber he did scour got you know sued for a
00:39:59
quarter trillion dollars he did Red swoosh he got like a 30 million dollar exit and then he did Uber right his
00:40:05
first two companies were very hard Steve jervinson and future Ventures he took his Venture fund and he told the LPS
00:40:11
it's a 15-year term not 10. so he specifically is trying to do a little
00:40:17
bit of a longer window I think that is actually a possible solution here I think smart independent thinkers find
00:40:22
ways to make money I've been looking at this superconductor space for the last
00:40:27
two years and so it's not like people are are shy and have money and aren't willing to write the checks I just don't
00:40:33
think that's what it is the body of work that's coming out of academic institutions today for the amount of money that's put in is modest and I
00:40:40
think that's the best way to describe it it's the ferris way and the reason is modest is not because of the intellectual capacity of the people it's
00:40:47
because of the incentives and the hierarchy and the establishment elitist politics that
00:40:54
infuses how these organizations run and I think the only way to break that apart
00:40:59
is to basically disrupt who is in charge of these institutions Nick just throw up
00:41:04
this chart these are people that for decades and decades and decades
00:41:11
are in a grind and who are now in control and so what is the incentive of these folks to explain the change
00:41:19
yeah what is this this is a chart that I put together which is just the generational distribution of academic
00:41:24
leadership across all the leading research institutions in America
00:41:32
you had the most important person hold on the most important person probably in
00:41:38
the federal distribution of grants in the medical field was fauci right he literally was running the NIH since the
00:41:44
1980s he's been there for 40 something years and the mass was peeled away
00:41:50
during covet and we saw how much power he wielded really I think in a corrupt way Jason used the word corrupt you had
00:41:57
that letter to the landsat that he got a whole bunch of scientists to sign that
00:42:03
claimed that covid was not made in a lab that was a conspiracy theory that the
00:42:08
only place it could have come from was the sort of the zoonotic leap naturally occurring from animals we know that he
00:42:16
used his power over grants to basically pressure those people into signing the letter where they thought it would be in
00:42:22
their interest to do so even though fauci had already been updated by a
00:42:27
bunch of scientists that it likely had come from a lab they could just look under a microscope and see if you're in
00:42:32
Cleveland sites which are The Telltale sign so they knew that this thing likely came from a lab there was no basis for
00:42:39
calling it a conspiracy theory certainly and yet the whole thing you got behind
00:42:44
that but technology did you see that slack messages where they were trying to manipulate the New York Times science writer I mean they basically but the
00:42:52
question you have to ask is why were all these scientists willing to go along with this because these guys have been grinding
00:42:58
for 40 or 50 years in a hierarchy and so to all of a sudden put a pin in it and just say you know what I'm going to
00:43:04
dispense with all of it and now I'm going to basically like be completely open-minded How likely was that the odds
00:43:09
of that were very low look look at the number of people who have basically grown up in one segment of society
00:43:17
that are sclerotically in charge of every single leading research university in the United States that is why we
00:43:24
don't have flying cars this is why because after 40 years of working in a specific hierarchy being
00:43:30
rewarded in a very specific way with a very specific set of incentives when some young Brash 22 year old naive
00:43:36
person writes an extremely ambitious research proposal you're like no you will not be a part of my lab to do that
00:43:42
but you can do this incremental thing that that further reinforces my leadership in society that is what this
00:43:49
chart shows yeah it's also perverse inside of government we didn't talk about it I don't think last week but Mitch McConnell I don't know how to say
00:43:55
it but I guess he froze while he was speaking and you know we got to have an upper age for the Dianne Feinstein thing
00:44:02
remember when she said a speech and their staff are Whispering saying just
00:44:07
say I you know and she starts going on this I mean filibuster we have a sclerotic political system run
00:44:15
by oxygenerians because the boomers are not relinquishing political power they're not relinquishing bureaucratic
00:44:21
power can we just pull up this Lancet letter for a second they say here's zoom in this the rapid open and transparent
00:44:27
sharing of data on this outbreak is now being threatened by rumors and misinformation around its Origins We
00:44:34
Stand Together to strongly condemn conspiracy theories suggesting that covid-19 does not have a natural origin
00:44:40
how could they say that at that point in time all the evidence suggested it was made in a lab now certainly I think you
00:44:47
could take the other side of that but to condemn the loudly Theory as a conspiracy theory that was corrupt I'm
00:44:54
not sure that that's corrupt you know what's corrupt is not retracting that and apologizing that's where the real corruption is we
00:45:00
have not gotten our posts a letter was organized it was organized this is just like the 51 spies who lied claiming that
00:45:08
the hunter buying laptop was disinformation this is the establishment willing to use its credentials and
00:45:16
respectability and expertise to sign a letter they know is false to perpetrate
00:45:21
a fraud on the American people in order to protect the people in charge
00:45:27
that's the motivation here because fauci had fun to gain a function research in the Wuhan lab I think the same Rod that
00:45:33
is in some of these leading research institutions and leading academic institutions
00:45:38
and politics they all share the same commonality which is we are sclerotic
00:45:45
we are in desperate need of a generational shift of power and right now there is no incentive
00:45:51
because at the same time you know the people that are 70 and 80 are thinking to themselves well are probably going to live to 100 what should I do for the
00:45:57
next 20 years being in power is pretty good right so we're we're in this weird Clash
00:46:03
I was thinking a lot about the fiscal spending problem in the US and we should
00:46:09
talk about the Fitch rating downgrade that happened this week I've got some data I'd like to share one thing I was
00:46:14
thinking about was how tied the age of congresses to our fiscal spending problem if you
00:46:21
think about someone who's young they're going to want to invest for their future and think about the future if you're
00:46:28
someone who's old you live for the day and you don't think about the future and I worry so much that the Aging of the
00:46:35
establishment that makes the decisions about how money is spent creates a a cycle
00:46:40
yeah or positioning that's all about giving away all the money today instead
00:46:46
of making the right decision to make sure that we have a prosperous tomorrow and that's why I think so many of these
00:46:53
things kind of slip through if you put a 20 year old in charge that was well
00:46:58
informed in charge of some of the fiscal policy Environmental Policy energy policy decisions defense policy it would
00:47:06
be a very different set of decision making than someone who's in their 80s inheritance tax
00:47:11
yeah yeah I mean so anyway we should talk like you want to talk about the Fitch downgrade because I think it's a really important story this week Fitch
00:47:18
the rating agency downgraded the US's long-term debt by
00:47:23
one Notch from AAA to AA Plus only nine countries have AAA ratings
00:47:28
from the top three rating agencies s p Global Fitch and Moody's those are Germany Denmark Netherlands
00:47:35
Sweden Norway Switzerland Luxembourg Singapore and Australia what you can take from that is you got to have a good balance sheet and you have to have high
00:47:42
functioning governments the highest functioning governments in the world are the nordics that's why you see Denmark
00:47:48
Netherlands Sweden Norway there according to NPR the negative reaction hasn't been as strong as uh 2011 that
00:47:55
was the first time the US was downgraded from AAA to AAA Plus by the s p that also had to do with the debt ceiling the
00:48:02
Market's kind of shrugged off largely Shrugged off the fish downgrade main reasons for the downgrade
00:48:08
is obviously higher interest rates aging population the debt to GDP ratio which
00:48:14
we've talked about here but government kept coming up over and over again and how
00:48:20
dysfunctional our government is and the debt ceiling is one of the key manifestations of that your thoughts on
00:48:26
this for the first half of the show freeberg you're an optimist but are you now going to switch to the
00:48:34
finest I wouldn't say declinist are you going to switch to declinist mode now or are you still in Optimus mode I mean in
00:48:40
Jacob's view unless you're a cheerleader for every student government policies I know it's Jake out listen it
00:48:49
I want to be honest I I don't think so I think he like and I I concur I think you
00:48:55
can highlight that there are concerns with U.S fiscal policy that are putting us in decline in our spending spiral
00:49:01
with the U.S currency reserves which there are now diversification efforts underway and I'll talk about this in one
00:49:07
second and that doesn't mean that the US isn't the most exceptional place to do engineering and entrepreneurism and have
00:49:14
freedom of speech and thought and so on but there are elements of the US that put things at risk so let me just point
00:49:19
out these two charts if you guys pull the first one up this is a pretty striking chart and I think I showed this before this is federal government
00:49:25
interest payments that are being made we're we're now up to you know a trillion dollars
00:49:31
the chart as you can see a year has spiked and by the way that number is spiking further and we'll talk about this in one second as a result of rising
00:49:38
interest rates and increased fiscal spending so this is now becoming a pretty sizable part of our budget and as of now
00:49:44
paying the interest on our debt is a larger capital outlay for the federal government than defense spending the
00:49:50
second chart shows what happened in the last week which is that 30-year treasuries have been sold off and as
00:49:55
that's happened treasury yields have climbed so there's been about a 10 decline in pricing on a you know a
00:50:01
concurrent nearly 10 increase and Bill Ackman you know basically said today that he's shorting 30-year treasuries he
00:50:07
thinks we're going to go to five and a half percent long-term rates currently the 30-year treasury sitting at 4.3 and
00:50:13
remember I told you guys this after this thing I went to a few weeks ago that
00:50:18
there were two prominent economists who shared that they think were going to be facing long-term rates in the five to
00:50:24
seven percent range very long-term rates for a very long period of time that it is a new fiscal regime and then if you
00:50:31
pull up the last link I sent Nick this is a report made by the treasury borrowing advisory committee of the
00:50:38
Treasury Department and I just want to read a couple of quotes from this report this just came out uh today and it was
00:50:43
published that it was sent over to the Secretary of the Treasury yesterday and it said since the advisory committee
00:50:48
convened in May two-year treasury yields are about 100 basis points higher while tenure treasuries have increased by
00:50:54
about 40 basis points the Bank holdings of non-mortgage-backed government securities mainly treasuries have
00:51:00
actually declined by 146 billion so far this year so that means banks are selling off their treasuries the
00:51:06
committee goes on to say at the same time treasury investors have noted that treasury Supply will need to increase to
00:51:12
address the rise in public deficits as tax revenues have come in weaker and government spending has increased
00:51:19
issuance needs will be additionally impacted by the timing of a recession so on then they said based on the
00:51:24
marketable borrowing estimates published on July 31st treasury this is crazy treasury currently expects privately
00:51:31
held net borrowing of 1.007 trillion dollars in this quarter
00:51:38
with an assumed end of September cash balance of 650 and then they said we expect
00:51:43
another 852 billion dollars of borrowing next quarter that means treasury is
00:51:49
going to try and issue and sell two trillion dollars worth of Treasury bonds
00:51:54
in the next two quarters that's two trillion dollars of new borrowing by the federal government to pay our bills at
00:52:00
the start of the year they were estimating 1.6 trillion for the year which was an insane number now we're talking about 2 trillion and just two
00:52:06
quarters so rates are climbing as a result we need to borrow more and this is a perfect manifestation of the debt
00:52:13
spiral problem that we've talked about multiple times our fiscal spending outlay and the rising interest rates
00:52:19
combine to create an insurmountable debt spiral that is now manifesting in the
00:52:24
fact that we need to sell two trillion dollars of um treasuries and here's the crazy statistic that they said in
00:52:31
reviewing recent demand for U.S treasuries in auctions the committee noted that an increasing percentage of
00:52:37
supplies being absorbed by investment funds while foreign participation has remain range bound that means as we're
00:52:43
trying to sell more treasuries governments Federal foreign governments are buying fewer of them which means that the U.S currency as a reserve is no
00:52:50
longer the place that everyone wants to plow their money as much as it used to be it is in Decline now the other thing I want to share
00:52:57
which I think is is absolutely critical is how do we address this Gap well the
00:53:02
one way is these entitlement programs and so several Republican presidential candidates Nikki Haley Ron DeSantis and
00:53:08
Mike Pence have all publicly stated on the the campaign trail that they're promoting programs to cut Social
00:53:14
Security benefits for people that are 30 and 40 years old and here's the response
00:53:19
to that so so they've gone out and they've started saying that a poll was done and on that poll 82
00:53:27
percent of Voters oppose the push to cut Social Security for Americans under 50.
00:53:33
82 percent so where is this going to take us this is what is so scary to me jaycal I'm not
00:53:39
an American declinist I believe in the American system it benefited me and my family but I do worry that we find
00:53:46
ourselves in a Whirlpool that it's very hard to get out of because the populace says we don't want to make the cuts that
00:53:52
are necessary in order for us to save ourselves that's what's so scary to me and I've said it before I think it's
00:53:57
worth saying again that's it I'm done it's not a problem with populism I mean the elites are saying it
00:54:02
too there's no appetite in the DNC to cut or reform Social Security are you kidding it's very unpopular how do you
00:54:08
get how do you get elected I don't know why those Republicans how do you get elected saying I I hadn't seen that article I would advise all those
00:54:14
campaigns not to touch that rail they're going to electrocute themselves I think Trump has the right political instincts
00:54:19
on this point which is you cannot touch the security as a single party effort it
00:54:26
has to be bipartisan and there is no bipartisan will to do anything so I think you're you're right about the larger Point chamoth you're a Dutch on
00:54:33
friedberg's Manifesto that 80 of the public does not want to cut spending
00:54:39
they're in favor of social security for people under 50 years old and we have a trillion dollars in debt payments and
00:54:44
we're in a death spiral because literally in 180 days we're borrowing an extra 2 trillion
00:54:50
yeah the fiscal end of days at the start of the year the the expectation was
00:54:57
there we're only going to borrow 1.6 trillion for the year now we're borrowing 2 trillion in just these two quarters let me just State what I think
00:55:03
about the downgrades it's irrelevant the s p did it 13 years ago Fitch is a
00:55:10
marginal credit rating agency they're at a minimum 13 years late at a maximum
00:55:15
they're just anxiety written like other people are that we're always dreaming that the sky is true so that's my first
00:55:21
point the second point and the more important one is that I I none of you
00:55:26
who are always freaking out about this understand this conversation about relativism
00:55:33
all of these conversations are relative to deal with them in absolutes on a relative basis Japan's debt to GDP
00:55:40
is 270 and growing on a relative basis our debt to GDP is half of that
00:55:46
we are the most important economic force in the world it is going to continue to
00:55:52
be the most economic force in the world and all I see actually on every single monetary basis is every other country
00:55:58
struggling more than we are so my question to all of the chicken littles is
00:56:04
what do you do if you're a central government where you have to have foreign Reserves
00:56:10
do you all of a sudden double down on the Euro do you double down in the Yuan which is basically a proxy for being for
00:56:17
doubling down in the US dollar what are you supposed to do and I never get a good answer because on a relative
00:56:22
basis the U.S will still continue to do well I think that debt to GDP is a red hearing for a lot of people
00:56:29
and I think that the way that people run their personal lives which should take income to debt into consideration I
00:56:37
don't think applies as much to governments and I think these things are going to March forward as a group
00:56:43
there's not going to be a single G8 country that all of a sudden moves away and starts printing surpluses it
00:56:49
happened almost as an accident an aberration during the Clinton Administration it'll never happen again
00:56:55
and I think that we shouldn't worry so much because I just don't see an alternative so give me instead of telling me how bad
00:57:02
this is because you think about your own life and how it would be bad if you had debt to GDP I get it as a country give
00:57:09
me the alternative country but just start with that can you answer that question what is the alternative country yeah where would you put your
00:57:16
your wealth if not the dollar well let me paint a scenario that's not
00:57:21
as dire as a collapse of the US Dollars the world's Reserve currency okay so on
00:57:28
this fish right that's not that's not what I think happens right I think this is just purchasing power goes down that's it but go ahead sex relative to
00:57:34
who anyone but what does that what does that mean relative to anyone let me paint like a
00:57:40
non-catastrophic scenario or non-apocalyptic scenario which is what you saw in this Fitch ratings downgrade
00:57:46
is that the bond market did move at the margins there was a sell-off in the 10-year and as a result the 10-year bond
00:57:53
yield moved up to 4.2 percent so it wasn't a case of everybody shedding all of their U.S treasuries it's just that
00:58:00
there were Market actors at the margins who adjusted their portfolios okay now
00:58:06
Freeburg is saying that the treasury is going to have to do another two trillion dollar Bond offering and we have
00:58:12
trillion dollar plus deficits as far as the eye can see and we've got entitlement liabilities on the horizon
00:58:18
and then at political and willingness to do anything about it so the deficits are only going to get bigger and bigger now
00:58:23
what does that do it's supply and demand when the U.S treasury needs to keep issuing more and more bonds at some
00:58:29
point the demand for those things gets incrementally saturated and they have to offer a higher yield so what happens
00:58:37
well well the bond rates go up and so the tenure goes up like Friedberg was saying from 4.2 to somewhere in the five
00:58:44
to seven percent range and that doesn't mean that US dollar is not the world's Reserve currency it just means that it
00:58:50
gets incrementally harder and more expensive to keep financing our debt now what is the result of that well if I as
00:58:57
an investor could theoretically get seven percent from the U.S treasury as the risk-free rate why would I want to
00:59:03
take Equity risk and put it in the stock market which historically has yielded somewhere in the five to seven percent
00:59:09
range so if I can get my five to seven percent from a risk-free U.S government Bond of course I'm going to do that so
00:59:16
the discount rate on equities will go up that means that the stock market relatively on a relative basis will go
00:59:23
down risk Capital will go down and they'll be way less risk Capital available for things like venture
00:59:29
capital and private Equity just risk-taking of all kinds and so the economy will just grow slower it's not
00:59:35
like there'll be a collapse it'll just be this yeah huge Albatross yeah around the neck of the private sector and this
00:59:41
is called crowding out hey may I give a counter here I think if you look at the amount of sovereign wealth funds and the
00:59:48
investment coming from around the world into U.S Venture Capital that will keep the Venture machine cranking here in
00:59:55
America but three charts to just look at here Nick pull up the first one the 30-year Fed so to counter this argument
01:00:01
really the aberration has been 2010 to 2020 when we had you know low single
01:00:08
digit mortgages three percent four percent the majority of our lifetime it was between five and ten and if it's six
01:00:14
up in the five to ten basis that that's what we experience for most of our life and then the second chart this is the
01:00:20
lowest unemployment we've had in our lifetimes if you look at the unemployment rate in the United States
01:00:25
3.6 is unbelievable and then combined with it something we've talked about here for two years that we can't
01:00:31
understand is when do all these jobs burn off we peaked you know during the post covet era at about 11 million job
01:00:38
openings and then you know we're still over nine so for there's two or three
01:00:43
job openings for every American who wants to work and we've shut down the borders largely even though we have some illegal immigration coming in it is
01:00:50
basically shut down the United States to immigration it's about a third of what it was before Trump and by myself I
01:00:58
don't think we're looking at the same video that that I'm seeing yeah if you're looking at videos those are very distracting I would encourage you to
01:01:03
look at the numbers of the actual migration into the country it's a third of what it was just seeing what's happening in New York City they got
01:01:09
again caught up in Clips uh on from the border I would just look at the raw
01:01:14
numbers sacks and the raw numbers you know the raw numbers yeah because we count them and we can't
01:01:19
we count them we have to estimate them because they're illegal but they got seven million look at the numbers and
01:01:25
the actual statistics than anecdotal videos because both sides will manipulate the heck out of them for
01:01:30
their own purposes but the fact is America is just crushing it in terms of employment and that's why we didn't have
01:01:36
this crash landing and the and I think the soft Landing is because of employment and I'll just stand there and
01:01:42
if we can keep ourselves employed and everybody from the Middle East to Japan to high net worth individuals in Europe
01:01:49
are pouring their money into the U.S Venture ecosystem I think the setup here is we got to control spending as you've
01:01:55
said correctly Freebird we get a little bit of control on spending hopefully and then we are going to have absolutely
01:02:02
burn off some of this you know debt uh come on this kind of debt payments here's a little data for you tomorrow
01:02:08
this is from congressional research service off of fed data so foreign Holdings of U.S treasury have declined
01:02:15
from 40 to 30 percent of total treasuries seventy percent of treasuries today are held by domestic investors
01:02:21
this is the data that was being described in the treasury advisory committee the borrowing advisory
01:02:27
committee uh letter that I just said is that they're seeing less demand from foreign buyers of treasuries now I can
01:02:33
argue we could argue theoretically about what else are they going to buy and what else are they doing with their money I don't know but the data is showing a
01:02:39
decline in purchasing attention by Foreign buyers of U.S treasuries and
01:02:45
we're having to pick up the slack through investment funds held by the U.S mostly pension mostly retirement funds I
01:02:51
would guess that are buying these treasuries that is not what this chart shows this chart shows the effect of quantitative easing that's what this
01:02:57
chart shows because when you're buying treasuries from the market and retiring them of course the percentage of foreign
01:03:03
and domestic Holdings of publicly held debt is going to go down so this last period explained this x of
01:03:08
QE explain it sorry I don't understand what you're saying this is a measurement of the amount of people that own
01:03:14
treasuries is that right domestic versus foreign yeah so who who owns so as of
01:03:19
December 22 there was um I'm gonna assume because this chart is
01:03:25
[ __ ] worthless if this if it doesn't assume that the domestic holding the gray bar that adds up to 100 doesn't
01:03:30
include the FED which it must and that is because the FED has been buying treasuries from the market okay so just
01:03:37
let me just give you the numbers for a second and then we can take out I'm just looking at the chart the chart that says
01:03:44
domestic Holdings I'm gonna give you there's an orange bar that says four Holdings you've had 10 years of the the
01:03:50
FED buying treasuries I'm gonna give you the numbers there are 24 trillion
01:03:56
dollars of treasuries publicly held treasury is outstanding 7.4 trillion held in foreign hands the
01:04:05
foreign holding of publicly held debt between December of 18 and December 22 increased from 6.3 trillion to 7.4
01:04:12
trillion while other investors increased from 16 trillion to probably 23 trillion
01:04:18
so you know it's we're having to pick up the slack investment funds private investors are having to pick up the
01:04:23
slack because of foreign demand for treasuries lagging at this point that that's the point of the chart I don't
01:04:28
know what I don't know what to tell you I think what this chart tells me is that the balance sheet of domestic Holdings grows gross because the FED has been
01:04:35
buying treasuries and then in a world of QT I suspect that this bar chart will
01:04:40
change in the next 10 years if you look at the histogram 10 years from now if you assume that QT sticks around so I
01:04:45
don't know you can interpret whatever you want to feed your anxiety it doesn't change that there's a relative problem
01:04:51
at hand which is you cannot sell one thing without buying another that's just the way it works in
01:04:56
financial markets the Federal Reserve during that same time period increased their treasury Holdings here's the exact
01:05:03
numbers from nine 3.7 trillion to 9.7 trillion so they bought 6 trillion of that debt I
01:05:08
think the fact that we're going to go from quantitative easing to quantitative tightening over the next decades another overhang but because not only does the
01:05:17
US government need to sell another 2 trillion of bonds every year to finance
01:05:22
its deficit which is basically the addition to the debt you've got the FED now shedding what like 8 trillion 30
01:05:29
bonds they're letting them roll off and they're not reissuing them but you
01:05:35
actually said the right thing earlier which is that the risk premium has been shrunk so massively between equities and
01:05:41
bonds these two trilliona bonds that these guys will issue that between
01:05:46
the strip will trade from five percent all the way down to there will be a line
01:05:52
out the door I guarantee you and the reason why is exactly what you said before David which is like why not own
01:05:58
five percent paper from the US government versus having to like all of a sudden speculate on the S P 500 or something
01:06:03
else it's a no-brainer and I totally agree with you but that this last two trillion that'll be the easiest two trillion to sell there will be a line
01:06:10
out the door guaranteed well there's a line out the door at some price so my point is that the yield will have to go
01:06:17
up to attract those incremental buyers and as the supply of t-bills becomes a
01:06:23
glut obviously they're gonna have to make the yield more attractive in order to keep
01:06:28
attracting that marginal buyer it's just that simple so yeah at some price they'll be able to find a buyer but that
01:06:36
yield will have to get higher and higher over time and then that Crowds Are private investment because why in the
01:06:41
world would you invest in a risky stock when you get seven percent risk-free what's your alternative because again like what do you think the spread to
01:06:47
jgbs is going to be if that's true if if U.S treasuries okay if third of your treasuries are all of a sudden in five
01:06:53
and a half of Bill ackman's right which you could very well be the other part of what he's not saying is what did jgb's look like what do European bonds look
01:06:58
like you know what they're going to be they're going to be trading at 300 to 500 basis points above
01:07:04
that it is cataclysmic for the entire world economy and so we all move in unison when we suffer we will suffer
01:07:11
Less in other countries and when we win we will generally win more than other countries that has typically been true I
01:07:17
suspect it will typically be true and I don't see anything changing that well hold on let's assume that you're right and what happens is that though let's
01:07:23
call it the Western world and all these governments which are basically mired in debts with a few exceptions I guess
01:07:29
Australia's good Switzerland is good but the rest have massive debt to GDP as well so their bonds have to move up with
01:07:36
ours and so their risk premium has to go up as well so you're right in lockstep
01:07:41
with the U.S but now why wouldn't Global growth just slow down across let's call
01:07:46
it this whole Western dollar complex coupled with inflation coupled with inflation right which is inevitable
01:07:52
that's basically what's happened in Japan right is that they have like a 200 debt to GDP and they've been very active
01:07:58
in yield curve control and so they've controlled the interest rates but the price of that's been total
01:08:06
they have demographic problems as well but that's the main issue there is it young people there there's just not a
01:08:11
lot of young people there I mean they're housing is crazy if you just look at it and I think the
01:08:17
United States has a lot of innovation so we will innovate our way out of it is is
01:08:22
my belief which is kind of what we you know what's so exciting guys we can have this conversation with Larry Summers himself
01:08:28
September we have Ray dalio yeah are they gonna be on a panel together are we really
01:08:34
interesting to discuss this topic with the two of them maybe overlapping I'll look at the schedule everyone unfortunately all our speakers are in
01:08:40
tight schedules on when they're in and out which is why I need jcal to respond to my I am to him about
01:08:46
finalizing some of our other speakers but hey Jimmy texted me because like apparently he's in like London or
01:08:52
yesterday he's in London right you got to figure out how to get him back yeah yeah he said he'd fly out but we gotta figure out how to do that but yeah we
01:08:57
can have this conversation in L.A September 10th through 12th well it's sold out so way to frustrate everybody
01:09:03
I'm getting like all kinds of like LPS and giant folks who are like can I buy a
01:09:09
VIP ticket and I'm like listen it's sold out you had two months to do that so in other news
01:09:14
the gop's lead candidate for the 2024 race Donald Trump has been
01:09:21
indicted for trying to overturn the 2020 election and stop the peaceful transfer
01:09:27
of power the indictment has four counts and is the third criminal case for those of you playing along at home four counts
01:09:34
include conspiracy to defraud the U.S conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding obstruction of an attempt to
01:09:41
obstruct an official proceeding conspiracy against rights Trump campaign not shockingly
01:09:48
called it fake news the indictment feels like it's got him dead to rights and this is on top of the Oath Keepers
01:09:56
founder of Stuart Rhodes getting 18 years and a bunch of other cases in addition to that the Doga prosecutors
01:10:03
also accused Trump of ordering employees to delete security videos and the classified documents case the
01:10:10
cover-up of course being worse than the crime looks like they got him dead to rights on that one as well all of this
01:10:17
against the backdrop of DeSantis spending tens of millions of dollars and falling
01:10:22
in his percentage sax explain to the audience why this is Hunter Biden's fault and uh that's a
01:10:30
deep state conspiracy I kid what are your thoughts on this when you say they have them dead to riots like what do you
01:10:36
mean by that what's your basis for saying exactly rights on what charge yeah so in this uh
01:10:43
indictment the 45 pages uh if you read it you will see that they put up fake
01:10:49
electorates and they knew that it wasn't going to work and they did it anyway
01:10:55
after losing 60 cases so that's the belief of why this is such a serious
01:11:01
case and then also the cover-up obstructing justice and it looks like some of these
01:11:07
maintenance workers are potentially flipping and Mark Meadows they claim has flipped as well so but you know Hey
01:11:13
listen everybody's cases is sort of separate I mean I think we should just stick to this the big news here is what
01:11:19
do you think of the fact that he tried this allegation that he tried to delete the videos do you think it's real or do you think it's made up no that that's a
01:11:26
that's a detail about a piece of evidence in that case I do think the documents case is
01:11:32
on a Sounder legal footing then you're saying more dangerous too it
01:11:38
doesn't involve as many novel legal theories now is it really dangerous I think the American people think that at
01:11:44
the end of the day that Dawkins case is sort of a paperwork case and there are many other people who violated
01:11:50
classified requirements rules like Sandy Berger like David Petraeus like Hillary
01:11:55
Clinton never prosecuted so I think if they have him dead to rights on any of the cases is the documents case but I
01:12:02
also think that in the American people that in the minds of the American people feels like DC inside baseball now I
01:12:09
think on this day about the documents guys what do you personally think I think if you're going to prosecute Trump for that you
01:12:15
prosecute all these other people who violated classified documents rules what do you think about him Sandy Berger
01:12:20
who worked for Clinton was a national security advisor stuffed his pants yeah with classified documents
01:12:28
from one of those lean rooms and got away with a slap on the wrist what do you think I'm trying to overturn the
01:12:34
election well look do you think he tried to overturn the election I mean just a basic fact let me state right away that
01:12:40
I think that what Trump did in the wake of the 2020 election was indefensible I
01:12:46
said so at the time I said I didn't say it what I said is that once the Supreme Court once the courts in general
01:12:52
throughout his case and once the Supreme Court denied certiori it was time for him to stop and he kept saying Yeah it
01:12:59
was time for him to stop and he did it and so I think that his actions were indefensible however when you're talking
01:13:04
about criminal prosecutions they can't just be an expression of condemnation you actually have to prove that somebody
01:13:12
engaged your criminal Behavior and the issue here with this January 6 case is
01:13:17
that it relies on novel legal theories there's actually a really good article in the New York Times volplay places
01:13:23
explaining this do you think there was a possibility that he if he could have he would have turned over
01:13:30
the election if Pence had gone along with it you're getting into a bunch of hypotheticals here the question is
01:13:36
whether these charges will actually stand up to scrutiny let me read you what David Leonard from The New York
01:13:43
Times reported because I actually think when you have the New York Times saying that the case is weak I think it's really indicative so what the New York
01:13:51
Times says or Leonard says as shocking as it was Trump's behavior on January 6 did not violate any laws in obvious ways
01:13:58
he never directly told those that January 6 rally to attack Congress during his speech that day he even said
01:14:04
he knew that protesters would behave peacefully and patriotically it was part of a long-standing trump pattern in
01:14:09
which as my colleague Maggie Hammerman puts it quote he is often both all over the place and yet someone careful not to
01:14:15
cross certain lines end quote as for Trump's broader effort to overturn the election result no federal law
01:14:20
specifically bars politicians from attempting to do so without such a loss Smith has relied on a novel approach she
01:14:28
has charged Trump with committing criminal fraud God and violating conspiracy laws that were not written to
01:14:33
prevent the overturning of election result and then he says the key part of these laws they revolve around a
01:14:38
person's intent intend is core to the notion of fraud only if someone is knowingly trying to deceive others can
01:14:44
he be committing a fraud and he says that's why the case seems like they're evolved around Trump's state of mind so the problem with this is they have to
01:14:50
not only prove that what Trump did in the wake of the election was indefensible and outrageous and all the
01:14:56
things that you believe they have to prove that Trump knew that he lost the election and knowingly perpetrated a
01:15:03
fraud and I don't think you'll be able to ever prove that Beyond A Reasonable Doubt but even though yes there are statements that they point to yeah they
01:15:09
got all those statements and then but Bill Barr Mark Meadows everybody slept on him Pence has slept on them they're
01:15:15
all flipped on him now same as by those people yes but Trump also had this whack pack of lawyers so you had Giuliani and
01:15:22
you had and Michael Lindell the pillow guy they
01:15:28
were all in the White House telling Trump that listen you won the election you've been robbed and there are loud legal grounds for you to contest this
01:15:35
and Trump for years has been maintaining the stolen election narrative even when his advisers have told him this is not
01:15:41
good for you the guy has stolen election on the brain okay every interview he's brought this up even when it's
01:15:48
manifestly harmful to himself and the Republican party so this idea that you can prove that he doesn't really believe
01:15:55
the election was stolen the one thing I believe about Trump is that he really does believe the election was stolen and
01:16:01
I think you will never be able to prove Beyond a reasonable doubt that he is knowingly lying about that and as a
01:16:07
result of this you can never prove this case now it also relies on this novel Theory they are turning the civil rights
01:16:13
law into a pretzel to try and figure out a way to indict Trump or prosecute him
01:16:20
under this novel legal theory of committing quote fraud against the American people okay this is a novel
01:16:27
legal Theory that's never been tried before and by the way if you're going to create that as a precedent I hope we're
01:16:33
going to go after those the signers at the Lancet letter we talked about because they committed a
01:16:38
fraud against American people I hope that we will prosecute the 51 spies who lied because they perpetrated fought
01:16:44
against American people I hope Austin I hope we will go after the authors of that steel dossier
01:16:50
because they perpetrated or fault of the American people there's a lot of people in Washington who've perpetrated fraud in the American people I hope we're
01:16:55
going to go after all of them but my point is this it's not the job of a prosecutor to be creative with the law
01:17:01
ever I mean they are supposed to apply the law strictly as written they're supposed to bring cases that are open
01:17:07
and shut and what Jack Smith is doing here is going for this bank shot where
01:17:13
he wants to charge Trump with incitement but he knows he can't win that case so
01:17:18
he's going for this back door or a civil rights law to sidestep the First Amendment problem and it might be this
01:17:24
is an abusive prosecutorial power and once you let prosecutors get creative like this you're on a slippery slope to
01:17:30
show me the man I'll show you the quantum as in Stalin's Russia so listen I believe that again Trump's actions
01:17:36
were illegitimate and outrageous but again the purpose of criminal law is not to express disapproval you have to be
01:17:42
able to prove these cases in an open and shut way without novel legal theories I just want to say I need to give I need
01:17:49
I need 10 for this last piece that was excellent absolutely excellent here's a question to ask you
01:17:54
go ahead do you believe that Trump was guilty of inciting an Insurrection absolutely yeah when he told those
01:17:59
people to yeah when he told those people to go down why hasn't Jack Smith indicted Trump they've
01:18:07
indicted Trump on all these different charges with over 500 years of jail time and they have not indicted why not they
01:18:14
they could always add to the charges and so I suspect when they start flipping people they will but you know
01:18:21
hold on hold on here's the thing you know what 30 percent of people in the Republican
01:18:27
Party about 30 of this country have Trump Stockholm syndrome they cannot let go of trump and so there's no reason to
01:18:33
debate it with the GOP they have TSS and it you're going to defend him to the dying day you're going to do what about
01:18:40
isms the Republican party will never accept the fact that this person's a criminal he's corrupt and he's a
01:18:47
horrible human being and he is not fit to serve and you're going to serve him up as your candidate it's disgraceful
01:18:52
the go p is a disaster for for actually supporting him guy has no morality and
01:18:59
he would have overturned the government if he had the chance and he will do it again can I respond to this or maybe a couple of different points here all
01:19:04
right make as many points as you want yeah absolutely fixated on January 6th and it's the people
01:19:10
who've been trying to whip this up and make it into a crime and invent all these novel legal charges and haven't
01:19:16
stopped talking about it for the last two and a half years I'm so sick of talking about this whole January 6th thing I don't want this to be our
01:19:22
politics okay the people who've made it our politics include the the mainstream media it's
01:19:28
all the people on CNN and MSNBC won't stop talking about it and part of the reason why
01:19:33
I think Trump likely will be the nominee is because they are creating a backlash in the GOP where people basically think
01:19:40
that he's being unfairly prosecuted and persecuted now to my question why aren't they charging him with incitement that
01:19:47
is the crime that the media says he has committed for the last two and a half years so why aren't they charging him
01:19:53
because the doj looked at that at the beginning of 2021 Merrick Garland's doj
01:19:59
looked at that and they did a report and found that they could not win that case and when that came out the media and
01:20:06
even Biden himself said that Merrick Garland was basically being a wimp and should be tougher and so that's when
01:20:11
they appointed Jack Smith to be the special counsel to go find some other way of Prosecuting him
01:20:17
and so that's why they've invented this novel legal Theory now I think the reason why we should care about this
01:20:22
that has nothing to do with wanting to defend Trump or make him the nominee is
01:20:27
that I don't think our political system should be weaponized this way because when they can start inventing
01:20:32
novel legal theories to get somebody that's what they've done here Jason it's show me the man and I'll show you that
01:20:38
cry now overthrow and reverse the election and
01:20:44
he tried to do that by putting up a fake slate and he tried to convince Pence to go along with it Pence is an honorable
01:20:50
person who wouldn't go along with it and everybody in his cabinet said this is a bridge too far his his supporters from
01:20:58
bar to pens to Meadows all told him please stop what you're doing is illegal you cannot overturn the government the
01:21:05
election results but are you saying this yeah he's doing that you're saying this is an expression of condemnation against
01:21:11
Trump or are you saying I think Trump I think it'll be proven that he broke the line I think we've proven in the
01:21:17
documents case that he also tried to cover it up but that's just my opinion I believe that he's a criminal I believe he will be held accountable I think he
01:21:24
should be held accountable for trying to overthrow the election he'll try to overturn the election
01:21:30
that is the most craziest thing you can do you can come up with all of your instructions charging with incitement
01:21:35
they have not done that they've invented this novel theory that never existed before he's a very smart guy when it
01:21:41
comes to avoiding accountability and I think that it's his the clock is running out for him you know what Jake Howell do
01:21:47
you not think that it's a little surprising that all of these charges are hitting
01:21:55
years after this event took place in the months leading up to the Republican primary no I think it's that's the
01:22:02
weirdest thing to me is like why would it take so many years to prosecute someone all those guys that went into Capital the Capitol Building they all
01:22:09
got charged with crimes years ago you know two years ago why did you stop falling on Trump today it's like they
01:22:15
because in the case yeah and they pay it takes time to build these because I will
01:22:20
say it does feel like it is interrupting a political process that if there were criminal charges to be filed I would
01:22:27
have liked to have seen him file two years ago so this could all get adjudicated ahead of a political cycle now that it's in the middle of a
01:22:33
political cycle it makes me as a U.S citizen nervous about the fact that there are agencies interfering in the
01:22:39
political cycle you're so right he could have given the documents back when they asked for them and he could have said don't delete it
01:22:45
I'm talking about both yeah and it takes it you change the subject to the case talking about those cases I'm talking
01:22:51
about both cases concurring is more solid but less important okay
01:22:57
actually Leonard says this in the New York Times but you asked me a question I I think it takes time to build a case
01:23:03
properly and it took them a long time to get through the 400 people who attacked the capital and brought tens of
01:23:09
thousands of rounds of ammunition to the capital and put it in three hotels which
01:23:14
is why The Oath Keepers got 18 years 400 people have gotten sentenced in that for
01:23:20
good reason they beat cops they beat they broke down their way into the capital and they brought dozens of
01:23:27
AR-15s and they bought tens of thousands of rounds of ammunition and placed them in hotels around the capitol these are
01:23:33
dangerous domestic terrorists being indicted for they I'm talking
01:23:39
about who they they already got those Oath Keepers on 18 years I just want to read this one sentence from from Leonard
01:23:46
just to wrap this up because this is the New York Times this is the New York Times he says you can think of the new
01:23:51
charges being both more important and less solid than Trump's previous Federal indictment yeah listen everybody's gonna
01:23:58
have different opinions on this I I get that I just hope he has his day in court and I think he's guilty and I think
01:24:04
it'll be proven that he's guilty and that it's time to start moving this towards a pardon and figuring out how to
01:24:10
get him out of political life and give him a pardon for all these crimes he's committed and let him off the hook but
01:24:16
get him out and so that your party can fail to good candidate that's what I hope happens I think one of the really
01:24:22
tragic side effects of these prosecutions where they're inventing novel legal theories clearly to get this
01:24:28
man for what he did even though it was outrageous but I don't think criminal in the way you wanted to be Jason but the
01:24:35
really tragic thing the way I wanted to be I would rather he didn't do this criminal activity yeah I get it I get it
01:24:40
I already denounced it I'm not defending his actions I'm defending the Integrity of our legal system sure really the
01:24:46
tragic about this the tragic thing about this is that I want the 2024 election to
01:24:52
be about issues it's not it's going to be a referendum on what happened in 2020
01:24:57
and there is no way to convince either side of the American people that they're wrong about that the MSNBC
01:25:03
CNN Crowder can believe that Trump is guilty of a crime no matter where this case comes out and by the way I think
01:25:10
Trump's actually going to win this case maybe not in the DC jury pool but I think he'll win it on appeal because the
01:25:16
Supreme Court yeah I think if yesterday's report he's going to win it because there's just a novel legal Theory by the way Jack Smith took a case
01:25:22
against the Virginia governor to the Supreme Court got overturned on appeal 9-0 because of an outrageous legal
01:25:27
Theory there so that same thing could happen here I think it probably will possible but but those people who
01:25:33
believe in this will never be convinced and by the same token Trump supporters the other half of the country will never be convinced that this was not a
01:25:40
political persecution it's tedious versus this one this will tear the country apart and to friedberg's point
01:25:47
it's two and a half years later we could have just moved on there's plenty of other things they already have the documents case
01:25:53
so this is a political prosecution by Biden's do you have any way to get out
01:25:58
of this what's your what's your solution to get out of this we should have just moved on not charge them yeah listen the the
01:26:05
proper Forum to deal with this was the impeachment hearing the second impeachment was expressly on the correct
01:26:12
charge which was whether Trump incited Insurrection they already had this trial the proper form was that impeachment
01:26:19
trial he made it through and it's up to voters I actually said the proper one
01:26:25
was to go criminal so it was interesting yeah he said the impeachment was the wrong way to do it they should just do the criminal so here we are doing the
01:26:30
criminal thing the country should have moved forward and instead and this is what 2024 is not going to be
01:26:36
about what do you think uh Freeburg which what do you think is a good path forward I kind of align with the fact
01:26:42
that this is a little bit too late it's in the middle of an election cycle and the Damage that it will cause in terms
01:26:48
of how our country views the intersection between the justice system
01:26:53
and the electoral process can be more damaging than the benefit we would gain from bringing an individual to justice
01:27:00
for breaking the law in this case unfortunately the timing is just off and I think it's really scary
01:27:06
all right Jason you have to ask what what is actually going to strengthen our democracy and what is the wisdom of bringing these charges I think this case
01:27:13
shows a lack of wisdom I don't think it's going to strengthen our democracy I think it's going to undermine it it's going to make this country more
01:27:18
polarized and Hyper partisan and it's not going to help us move past this era of our politics and I believe is that a
01:27:24
question towards me I think Trump is responsible for part of that polarization but I think Biden now is
01:27:30
playing into it from the other side I don't think we've had a president seek to indict
01:27:36
his leading political opponent who's likely to be involved in this this is the justice department he's not he's not
01:27:42
driving it wait a second that is not true okay yeah he's not involved in it no there's
01:27:49
an article in which Biden said that when Merrick Garland refused the incitement
01:27:54
charges that he thought that it was weak in that Biden thought that Trump deserved to be prosecuted and that was a public
01:28:00
articles in the New York Times and I'll provide the note okay what's your question for me do you have a question you said you wanted to ask me a question
01:28:07
well no I didn't say a question oh um but my point is I now think that
01:28:12
Biden has crossed the line here and just remember this is not an independent prosecutor Jack Smith works for Merrick
01:28:19
Garland who works for Joe Biden this is Banana Republic type stuff this is one president's doj
01:28:26
seeking to prosecute his main political opponent who put Merrick Garland in but I didn't appointed him
01:28:32
uh yeah so uh this has been the all in podcast chamoth had to bounce
01:28:37
freyberg congratulations on ok99 I hope it happens sax sorry about congratulations to you
01:28:43
too congratulations to you two sex if it's proven to be real we will all benefit so it's great yeah right and
01:28:52
we'll see you all good friends next time
01:29:00
Rain Man [Music] we open source it to the fans and
01:29:07
they've just gone crazy [Music]
01:29:13
somehow [Music]
01:29:40
we need to get Mercies
01:29:46
[Music] I'm going all in
