00:00:00
Brian Johnson that's so funny I I uh who
00:00:03
knows I am the king of nighttime
00:00:05
erections I go to bed thinking about
00:00:07
myself and I wake up thinking
00:00:10
myself big correction in
00:00:15
between let your winners
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[Music]
00:00:23
ride we open sources to the fans and
00:00:25
they've just gone crazy with it queen of
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all right everybody welcome back to the
00:00:33
number one podcast in the world man
00:00:35
we're starting off with three of the
00:00:37
four original band members shamal poopaa
00:00:40
he's your chairman dictator the Sultan
00:00:43
of science David freeberg and of course
00:00:45
I'm your host Jason calanis and David
00:00:48
saaks from the original band will be on
00:00:52
the second half of the show we're going
00:00:54
to do some of the classics yes you get
00:00:56
some of the classics including Ukraine
00:00:58
Ukraine Ukraine coming up
00:01:00
on the second half of the show in our
00:01:02
greatest hits Revival tour but with us
00:01:04
again sitting in The Red Throne is the
00:01:07
one the only Joe lale is back he is if
00:01:11
you can imagine further right than Keith
00:01:13
R boy and saaks they tell him to pump
00:01:16
the brakes welcome back to the program
00:01:19
Joe Londale how you doing brother hey
00:01:21
Jason doing great here in Texas today ah
00:01:23
yes I I see you right over the hill on
00:01:25
the ranch our ranches are within 20
00:01:28
minutes of each other Joe Lonzo and I
00:01:30
are shooting guns at our ranches are you
00:01:32
on a ranch Joe uh well I bought a bunch
00:01:34
of the homes and connected them so it's
00:01:35
kind of like a ranch but it's actually a
00:01:37
suburb yeah it's more like a compound he
00:01:39
has a compound subb
00:01:41
suburb that creaking sound you hear are
00:01:43
the libs Rolling In The Guillotines yes
00:01:45
he bought the small town he lives in Joe
00:01:48
lale's here of course he is a venture
00:01:50
capitalist the founder of 8vc they've
00:01:53
got six Billy in AUM co-founded paler
00:01:57
open gov in adapar 3 billion Billion
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Dollar Plus companies he co-founded and
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an early investor in andrel I'm in the
00:02:06
market for secondary shares you know how
00:02:07
to reach me folks if you're selling your
00:02:09
secondary and Andel and building a
00:02:10
position for obvious reasons and Oculus
00:02:13
wish Oscar Health amongst his other
00:02:14
Investments hey what was the feedback
00:02:16
Joe on your first appearance here on the
00:02:18
all-in pod people loved it you know you
00:02:19
guys gave me no warning so I was like on
00:02:21
a mobile phone sideways but it worked
00:02:23
out it was great everyone saw it I gu
00:02:25
looks like people actually watch your
00:02:26
show Jason it was surprising apparently
00:02:28
people tune in from time to time and
00:02:30
that's why we call it the number one
00:02:31
podcast in the world how are you doing
00:02:33
shth poopaa how you doing brother I'm
00:02:36
doing really
00:02:37
well okay once again giving me a ton to
00:02:40
work with there and Fred would you wait
00:02:42
what would you like to know why don't
00:02:43
you ask me a question oh well I asked
00:02:45
you how you're doing maybe you say oh I
00:02:47
had a great time with my kids I took
00:02:48
them to Disneyland or I don't know Chef
00:02:51
made an amazing aruga you used to give
00:02:53
me some some color to work with here so
00:02:56
Nat was in Rome all last week great what
00:02:58
was she doing in Rome
00:03:00
she had to go see her Factory she also
00:03:03
had to go and renew her visa at the US
00:03:05
Embassy there okay so she's renewing her
00:03:07
visa hopefully she'll be able to get
00:03:09
back in the country I know we've
00:03:11
tightened up the borders well she's on
00:03:12
an eb2 Visa she's already but she should
00:03:14
switch to this eb5 as soon as it's
00:03:16
announced oh yes you can get the golden
00:03:18
visa and I think you already put a down
00:03:20
payment on freberg how was your week
00:03:23
what how's everything going at ohal
00:03:24
you're having a productive week as one
00:03:26
of my management team members told me
00:03:28
today it's a very complex business
00:03:30
that's usually not a good sign when the
00:03:32
conversation starts with that is that a
00:03:34
way of saying everything's no no we we
00:03:37
we were good I was on the road this week
00:03:38
I just got back I mean it's hard running
00:03:41
a business is hard you hire the smartest
00:03:43
people you know and what happens they
00:03:45
bring you all the problems they can't
00:03:47
solve so it's it's never easy we've got
00:03:49
an incredible docket today let's just
00:03:52
start with I'll give you a quick recap
00:03:55
boys of the week since we last taped to
00:03:59
say the uh Zone was flooded in the words
00:04:02
of Steve Bannon would be an
00:04:03
understatement here's your Trump tsunami
00:04:06
for the week Thursday when we tape the
00:04:09
Epstein file dump Fiasco you remember
00:04:11
that Joe right big zero big nothing
00:04:13
burger then
00:04:15
Friday zalinski was dressed down and
00:04:17
kicked out of the White House by the
00:04:20
Vice President presidents markets
00:04:21
collapsed they rebounded on Saturday we
00:04:24
got a beautiful day off video of trump
00:04:27
dancing down a catwalk to YMCA maybe he
00:04:29
played played some golf he was at the
00:04:30
White House South Mar Lago Sunday 9:24
00:04:34
a.m. eastern the president pumps three
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specific crypto salana Cardona xrp to be
00:04:40
in the first government strategic crypto
00:04:43
Reserve Joe ondale starts tweeting I
00:04:44
start tweeting everybody's tweeting he
00:04:46
quickly retweeted himself included
00:04:48
ethereum and Bitcoin some decentralized
00:04:50
coins reaction was wow crazy you had a
00:04:54
little bit of a spicy take Joe we'll get
00:04:55
into that later and I'm sure our friend
00:04:58
David saaks will have much to say in
00:04:59
second half of the program but it was
00:05:02
pretty negative Cardona ripped 70% xrp
00:05:05
32% salana 25% and then there was this
00:05:08
crazy trade one whale went 50 times long
00:05:11
on BTC and eth $200 million position on
00:05:14
just a $4 million investment everybody
00:05:16
trying to figure out who that was I'll
00:05:18
leave it to you to speculate then we
00:05:20
start the week Monday Trump says
00:05:22
significant TR tariffs with Canada and
00:05:25
Mexico the market collaps he walks back
00:05:27
tariffs couple of hours later and the
00:05:29
market starts to rebound then at 2:38
00:05:31
p.m. Trump announces a hundred billion
00:05:35
investment from tsmc in American Fabs
00:05:39
huz off for that and our boy David saaks
00:05:41
Gets dragged out to the podium for a
00:05:43
quick 15-second Cameo very nicely done
00:05:46
to our boy David saxs and then Tuesday
00:05:49
we have the most chaotic State of the
00:05:50
Union I've ever seen highlights include
00:05:52
an angry man shaking a cane and getting
00:05:54
kicked out there were some auction
00:05:56
paddles from the libs I don't know what
00:05:58
they were bidding on there were 13 Biden
00:06:00
mentions and one Pocahontas
00:06:03
Wednesday we have news that the Doge
00:06:05
Blitz might slow down Supreme Court
00:06:08
chimed in with a 54 decision backing the
00:06:10
federal judge who ordered the Trump
00:06:12
admin to pay out two billion for USA
00:06:14
contractors then there was a closo
00:06:15
meeting with the Senate with Elon maybe
00:06:17
they discussed an approval process maybe
00:06:19
some voting type things and then here we
00:06:22
are today Thursday when we're taping
00:06:24
Market's down 2% on more tariff news
00:06:27
breaking news drops at 11:30 Trump
00:06:29
announced are off for Mexico markets
00:06:31
aren't rebounding we might be leaving
00:06:34
NATO hold on almost almost there yeah
00:06:36
breaking we might be leaving NATO
00:06:39
breaking we're shutting down the
00:06:40
Department of Education psych we just
00:06:42
found out we're not okay gentlemen
00:06:44
that's the week that was no there's
00:06:46
there's three things that are also kind
00:06:48
of interwoven in all of
00:06:50
this open AI
00:06:52
dropped GPT 45 and I think it was not
00:06:57
really that well received I didn't even
00:06:59
know nobody's talking about that quen
00:07:01
which is the open source Alibaba dropped
00:07:03
to rev which seems actually really best
00:07:07
in class so that was really interesting
00:07:10
okay then there was a story that said
00:07:12
llama is going sideways Facebook's open
00:07:16
source llm yeah and then the markets
00:07:18
have just been going I think the
00:07:21
craziest I've actually seen in 20 years
00:07:24
of following the markets and
00:07:25
specifically you're seeing the mag 7
00:07:29
compressed towards the rest of the S&P
00:07:31
500 and then you're seeing this insane
00:07:34
trade away from Europe so there's a ton
00:07:37
that happened this week I mean I don't
00:07:40
remember a more eventful week Joe is
00:07:43
this a little too much maybe you guys
00:07:45
missed the Shalom Hamas tweet by Trump
00:07:48
too which for a lot of us is a big deal
00:07:49
he said I don't know if this is hello or
00:07:51
goodbye but he's threatening them really
00:07:53
strongly so for people who care about
00:07:55
that part of the world it's interesting
00:07:56
to watch what's going to happen so that
00:07:58
also happened yeah oh my lord well and
00:08:00
Shalom is hello and goodbye right just
00:08:02
to clarify as a word you would say it
00:08:05
both right Shalom yeah and peace
00:08:08
ambiguous word and
00:08:11
peace well maybe he's leaving it into
00:08:13
interpretation maybe they get to pick
00:08:16
maybe it's hello no that's what that's
00:08:18
what he wrote in the Tweet oh he did
00:08:20
yeah it's your choice okay it's should
00:08:22
Choose Your Own Adventure Hamas from the
00:08:24
president United States but I think we
00:08:27
should probably get into tariffs
00:08:30
this is confounding to most people maybe
00:08:34
since I just did the whole rundown I
00:08:36
won't go into all the details about tffs
00:08:38
again but just looking at it from first
00:08:42
principles Joe I asked a couple of group
00:08:44
chats you're in one one of them in
00:08:47
fact and I have about I say about 400
00:08:49
people total in these four group chats
00:08:51
what's the strategy here what do you
00:08:52
think Trump is trying to accomplish and
00:08:54
man I got a range of answers let me ask
00:08:56
you what is Trump in your estimation
00:09:00
trying to accomplish with the tariffs on
00:09:02
the tariffs off the Tariff on the
00:09:04
tariffs offs as Shou said here this is
00:09:06
creating more chaos than any of us have
00:09:08
ever seen in the markets listen Trump's
00:09:10
negotiating right so I I actually ran
00:09:12
into David saaks each Senator gets one
00:09:13
guest we are both guests in the Senate
00:09:15
dining hall hanging out with a bunch of
00:09:16
these guys multiple of the guests some
00:09:19
of them were spouses of the Senators
00:09:20
multiple of the guests were people who'
00:09:22
lost kids def fentanyl right and so this
00:09:24
actually is a very serious issue it's a
00:09:26
big thing on the populist right as it
00:09:28
should be for all Americans we've lost
00:09:29
you know tens of thousands of young
00:09:31
people recently to Fentanyl and and and
00:09:33
Canada has done nothing about their
00:09:35
border and so you know you just reported
00:09:37
breaking news I had even heard yet that
00:09:39
Mexico might be off can is still on he's
00:09:42
using this to negotiate so I talk to the
00:09:43
Senators and I asked him what's going on
00:09:45
because obviously I import things all
00:09:46
over the place I'd like to know what the
00:09:47
hell the rules are but he wants people
00:09:49
to actually crack down on this stuff and
00:09:52
save American lives and I think it's a
00:09:53
reasonable thing to use to negotiate and
00:09:55
force them to do that okay so you
00:09:57
believe it's negotiation because of the
00:10:00
fental issue Cham let me go to you
00:10:02
because many people are saying this has
00:10:04
more to do with some great reset and
00:10:08
maybe the tenure do you think this is
00:10:10
about fentol at the border or something
00:10:14
else I think that this is the first week
00:10:19
where I've seen the first real
00:10:23
Schism in how people are interpreting
00:10:26
what's actually happening I think that
00:10:29
Trump and Elon were very much in a
00:10:31
honeymoon period until this week and I
00:10:34
think there was the benefit of the doubt
00:10:36
but what I saw on X was a real
00:10:39
Divergence where on the one hand there
00:10:42
were people that were basically
00:10:44
saying doge is deranged Elon is crazy
00:10:48
Trump is lighting the world on fire in
00:10:50
one camp and the other Camp saying he's
00:10:52
sticking to the plan and when I thought
00:10:57
about this a little bit if you went back
00:11:00
to November the
00:11:02
5th I do think it's important to
00:11:04
remember that we were at this moment
00:11:06
where you had this fork in the
00:11:08
road and you had all these important
00:11:11
issues where I think the best way to
00:11:13
generalize it was that the Democrats
00:11:16
believed that the lines should continue
00:11:19
to be blurred so whether that was on
00:11:22
gender or race or Merit versus some
00:11:26
other immutable trait or fiscal and M
00:11:29
monetary policy things were just getting
00:11:31
more and more
00:11:33
blurred and then Trump and Elon
00:11:35
basically showed up and said actually we
00:11:38
want to refocus and we want to make the
00:11:40
lines very visible and clear on all
00:11:43
those Dimensions h and a majority of
00:11:46
Americans voted that
00:11:48
in but I think what you're starting to
00:11:50
see now is the difficulty in actually
00:11:54
implementing that
00:11:56
plan and what I mean specifically is
00:12:00
tariffs are very nuanced and complicated
00:12:03
on the one hand there's these short-term
00:12:05
wins there's these impacts you could
00:12:08
deem them positive or negative to the
00:12:10
dollar there's impacts to us bonds
00:12:13
there's impacts to us Bond markets
00:12:15
there's impacts to how countries deal
00:12:18
with foreign reserves and then there's
00:12:20
this impact that happens when the
00:12:21
markets react to a
00:12:23
tariff and then Trump takes that off the
00:12:26
table and then they snap back so you
00:12:29
have this weird set of boundary
00:12:32
conditions right now so I think right
00:12:34
now we're in the very difficult part of
00:12:36
sorting through what the long-term
00:12:39
implications are and I can get to some
00:12:40
of them later but I think that's where
00:12:42
we are I think that's really interesting
00:12:43
the goal of tariffs in your mind for
00:12:45
Trump is
00:12:48
fenol finance related no give me your
00:12:51
definitive what you think this is about
00:12:53
I think what tariffs allow us to do is
00:12:57
rebase
00:13:00
the long-term Reliance on the US dollar
00:13:03
it allows us to
00:13:06
rebase our ability to fund our own
00:13:10
deficits and it allows us to
00:13:13
rebase the long-term ability for
00:13:16
American companies to be economically
00:13:19
vibrant okay so freeberg we got one
00:13:23
person with fent all the Border
00:13:25
negotiating we got one person on trade
00:13:29
some portion of this I hear and I when I
00:13:31
asked in these four group chats I got
00:13:33
he's throwing stuff at the wall the
00:13:35
Border he's trolling the 10year note and
00:13:39
he doesn't care about stocks and then I
00:13:41
got onshoring and Manufacturing as a
00:13:44
possibility we're going to make it more
00:13:46
expensive to bring things in so why
00:13:47
don't you consider making stuff here do
00:13:49
you think that third possibility is
00:13:51
what's going on here just David freeberg
00:13:54
pick one of these three choices or
00:13:55
another what's going on here with tus
00:13:57
specifically I don't sit inside of
00:13:59
Trump's head and I don't have any direct
00:14:01
line of communication to folks that are
00:14:03
constructing the theory and the policy
00:14:06
if I were to say what's the most
00:14:08
masterful plan in an optimistic way of
00:14:11
what could be going on here what's the
00:14:13
master plan I would kind of craft it as
00:14:16
follows tariffs aren't being done in
00:14:19
isolation they're being done along with
00:14:21
a coordinated policy effort to reduce
00:14:24
income taxes and another policy effort
00:14:28
to reduce government spend
00:14:29
so those are three actions three legs on
00:14:32
a stool so tariffs M reduced income
00:14:36
taxes reduced government spending and
00:14:38
they are related to each other they're
00:14:40
related to each other because if we
00:14:42
increase tariffs one element of that is
00:14:45
that to import products is more
00:14:47
expensive for example I buy LED lights
00:14:50
in my
00:14:51
greenhouse and the price of the LED
00:14:53
lights just went up by 25% this week I
00:14:55
actually spoke with the CEO of an LED
00:14:57
company and I was like why don't you
00:14:58
guys make the LED here and there starts
00:15:00
to become a crossover point where it
00:15:03
actually makes economic sense for the
00:15:05
company to make the LEDs here instead of
00:15:07
sourcing them from Asia and there's a
00:15:09
100,000 examples of this when the
00:15:11
industrial supply chain goes to the
00:15:13
lowest part of
00:15:15
production it's going to end up
00:15:16
offshoring when there's no tariffs and
00:15:18
if there are tariffs then you start to
00:15:20
do production here so you're increasing
00:15:22
both kind of security for the US supply
00:15:25
chain but also increasing demand and
00:15:28
creation of a
00:15:30
Workforce Now I think that the income
00:15:33
tax piece is critical here because in
00:15:35
order to make the capital available to
00:15:37
build that industry here we need to have
00:15:39
unleash capital and reducing of income
00:15:42
taxes the economic theory would be that
00:15:44
Capital will now flow into these
00:15:46
entrepreneurial activity these
00:15:47
opportunities that have emerged where
00:15:49
suddenly it makes sense for me to make
00:15:51
textiles to make metals to make
00:15:53
materials to make cars to make all this
00:15:55
stuff here in the United States that I
00:15:56
otherwise wouldn't be making so both the
00:15:58
corporate and the personal income tax by
00:15:59
reducing it unleashes capital that
00:16:01
instead of going into the government it
00:16:03
now goes into the private sector into
00:16:04
building businesses okay I think that
00:16:06
there's another theory about this which
00:16:08
is as you drop the income
00:16:10
tax one of the kind of key theories that
00:16:12
I've heard spoken about a lot lately and
00:16:14
I think we're going to hear about it a
00:16:15
lot more this year is trying to get the
00:16:18
United States to move away from an
00:16:19
income taxation model to a consumption
00:16:21
taxation model so effectively what the
00:16:24
tariffs do is there's a tax for you
00:16:25
buying certain things so now instead of
00:16:28
getting taxed when when you earn money
00:16:30
as an individual you get taxed when you
00:16:32
spend money and some people think that
00:16:34
that's both a more fair system and a
00:16:36
more kind of economically vibrant system
00:16:38
because that will drive investment in
00:16:41
the things that people want to to
00:16:43
produce because the money's going into
00:16:44
production so you that do you think that
00:16:47
free Breg I'm curious I I don't know
00:16:49
it's a really interesting economic
00:16:50
theory I mean I am not opposed to seeing
00:16:53
some sort of an experiment play out
00:16:56
where we look at a shift from income
00:16:57
taxation to consumption Taxation and see
00:17:00
if it actually does have an effect on
00:17:02
economic growth and productivity it has
00:17:04
not been done in 150 years there's a lot
00:17:06
of economic theorists on both sides of
00:17:08
the equation saying this does work or it
00:17:10
doesn't work okay and let me just say
00:17:12
one last thing by reducing government
00:17:14
spending we are moving workers from the
00:17:17
government into the private Workforce so
00:17:19
as those new Industries pop up as those
00:17:21
Investments start to get made in
00:17:23
building new industry onshore where are
00:17:25
the workers going to come from remember
00:17:26
the government's 30% of the US GDP today
00:17:29
so if that's not a great way to invest
00:17:31
money maybe the Private Industry is
00:17:33
better at investing money in employing
00:17:34
people that will unleash the workforce
00:17:36
and it will counterbalance the inflation
00:17:39
that we're experiencing so there's a lot
00:17:40
of inflation because of tariffs and by
00:17:42
reducing government spending that's the
00:17:44
offset to inflation so those three
00:17:46
actions I think are three legs of a
00:17:47
stool and they actually are all
00:17:49
interrelated to one another so that
00:17:50
would be my grandmas theory of what
00:17:52
might be going on this is an interesting
00:17:53
triangulation theory that people have
00:17:55
been speculating about and there are a
00:17:58
couple of caveo here Joe number one we
00:18:00
do have lowering income tax and lowering
00:18:03
Services experiment it's called Florida
00:18:06
Texas and a couple of the states where
00:18:07
they have lower income tax and and more
00:18:09
consumption tax we pay a lot more in
00:18:12
real estate taxes here something we
00:18:13
consume putting that aside the really
00:18:16
interesting issue is we're at the lowest
00:18:18
unemployment of our lifetime 4% where
00:18:22
are all these workers going to come from
00:18:23
what do you think Joe now that you've
00:18:25
heard the two other panelists here
00:18:27
discuss it
00:18:29
what are we trying to get to where is
00:18:32
the destination at the end of this term
00:18:35
Trump's lame duck he can go wild here
00:18:37
he's not running for election and you
00:18:39
know what what do you think he wants to
00:18:41
see do you think he just wants
00:18:43
to sement some sort of legacy and if so
00:18:46
what's that Legacy and how do these
00:18:48
actions equal his goals and Legacy no
00:18:52
listen I agree with what David with what
00:18:54
David was saying Jason and it's it's a
00:18:56
really important point also that we
00:18:57
should mention is that the last four
00:18:59
years the economy's looked okay but part
00:19:00
of that is because government's been
00:19:02
hiring like mad and so the point he made
00:19:04
is that actually you know having twice
00:19:06
as many people you know harassing me I
00:19:08
just got back yesterday no action on an
00:19:10
audit that been harassing me on for
00:19:11
three years they found nothing having
00:19:13
twice as many people doing things like
00:19:15
that and and or like you know running
00:19:16
TSA or pushing papers around in the
00:19:18
Department of Labor doesn't actually add
00:19:20
output to the economy and so you know it
00:19:23
it does seem like it makes a lot of
00:19:24
sense let's take a million workers out
00:19:26
of the Consulting class around e DC out
00:19:29
of the you know paper pusher classro on
00:19:30
DC and let's actually deploy them to the
00:19:33
actual productive economy Elon and Trump
00:19:34
have both been saying that I think David
00:19:36
is 100% right and it is true a lot of my
00:19:37
companies thinks that the Tariff stuff
00:19:39
are looking to build stuff here so I'm
00:19:41
not a huge fan of tariffs personally but
00:19:44
they definitely make sense for things in
00:19:45
defense they definitely make sense for
00:19:46
negotiating with countries and it is
00:19:48
true it is pushing certain people to
00:19:50
including me to build some more things
00:19:51
in America here's where tariffs make a
00:19:53
lot of sense if you have markets where
00:19:56
there are domestic alternatives
00:19:58
Andor where things are fundamentally
00:20:01
commodity there's no reason why tariffs
00:20:03
can't work to create the incentives to
00:20:06
redomicile economic productivity inside
00:20:08
of the United States that's a that's a
00:20:10
slam dunk I think and and shamat there's
00:20:12
another Twist on that too which I think
00:20:13
we should all acknowledge is America
00:20:15
does have some really tough
00:20:16
environmental laws despite what Jason
00:20:18
may think of me I actually don't want my
00:20:20
daughters growing up with you messy air
00:20:21
messy water you know screwed up country
00:20:23
oh I don't think that of you I I know
00:20:25
that you're a nature guy you're like a
00:20:27
classic bush guy but but here's here's
00:20:30
the thing in China and Indonesia and all
00:20:31
these other countries they are just
00:20:33
shoting over the environment as they
00:20:34
make things I think tariffs are very
00:20:36
reasonable on that case like it's not
00:20:37
fair to make it more expensive for us
00:20:39
because we're doing it well and then we
00:20:40
Outsource it for them to destroy things
00:20:42
right so so there are some things there
00:20:43
where it does make sense and what I
00:20:45
would say is the other the other side of
00:20:47
the of the Tariff knife is that if there
00:20:50
are markets though where you're making
00:20:52
something that's fundamentally
00:20:54
Innovative where you are but one maker
00:20:57
the problematic part of where tariffs
00:21:00
really affect the US consumer is then
00:21:03
the price of that product of which there
00:21:05
are no competitive Alternatives can go
00:21:09
very very high and that's inflationary
00:21:11
and I think that that slows down
00:21:13
consumption and then if if that
00:21:14
consumption is not just of something
00:21:16
that's a nice to have but a must have
00:21:19
then it becomes problematic and so you
00:21:20
could see where tariffs could impact
00:21:23
certain
00:21:25
industries for example if there are
00:21:27
Innovative drugs I think that that's
00:21:29
problematic if there are Innovative
00:21:30
Technologies of which there's only one
00:21:32
vendor that's problematic so all of
00:21:34
those need to get sorted out but on
00:21:36
balance in commodity markets like look
00:21:38
at Autos Autos is a perfect example
00:21:41
there are so many purveyors and
00:21:44
providers of Autos there is oems all
00:21:47
around the world and so to have a
00:21:51
compensatory
00:21:52
system doesn't seem like an unreasonable
00:21:55
thing where it's a tit fortat tariff but
00:21:58
in markets where if you need for example
00:22:00
a specific piece of equipment from asml
00:22:04
to build a chip and now all of a sudden
00:22:06
that that machine is 25% more expensive
00:22:09
or 30% more expensive and they pass that
00:22:11
cost
00:22:12
Downstream it becomes very speculative
00:22:16
and it becomes a little bit more fragile
00:22:18
I think this is dangerous though right
00:22:19
jth because I agree with you in theory
00:22:22
but then there's something where you
00:22:23
know if everyone's lobbing for their
00:22:25
thing to be an exception you end up
00:22:26
getting this very crony system that's
00:22:28
that you don't necessarily want right so
00:22:30
you have to be very careful how you
00:22:31
define these things exactly so this is
00:22:33
why the I think like sector by sector
00:22:35
it's probably you can probably go and
00:22:37
pass the smell test and say if there are
00:22:40
multiple providers and or if it's
00:22:41
somehow
00:22:43
commodity I think it's easier to absorb
00:22:45
the Tariff in the short term maybe
00:22:47
that's the right way to say it which is
00:22:48
if you believe if Trump believes
00:22:50
everything should be tariffed then
00:22:52
instead of debating if to your point
00:22:55
maybe the right thing to debate is when
00:22:57
and you have to put things on a much
00:22:59
longer Glide path so that you don't just
00:23:02
create inflation out of nowhere and or
00:23:05
you don't hold back American business or
00:23:07
American consumers well this is a key
00:23:09
point because you do need to have
00:23:10
predictability to make investment and
00:23:13
reciprocity so really two important
00:23:14
points Shaman's making here one on
00:23:16
reciprocity these things haven't been
00:23:18
looked at for a while I'm not sure how
00:23:20
they got so out of whack but just
00:23:22
putting some facts to this uh chat's
00:23:24
exactly correct we get placed uh when we
00:23:27
send cars to the EU they they get a 10%
00:23:29
tariff but when we get their cars it's a
00:23:32
2 and a half% tariff who let it get out
00:23:34
of whack I'm not sure but why not make
00:23:36
the reciprocity perfect and just hey you
00:23:39
say 10 we say 10 you say two and a half
00:23:40
we say two and a half and that would
00:23:42
make I think a lot more sense just to
00:23:44
put some numbers here on government
00:23:46
employees it's not as bad as people make
00:23:50
it out to be a lot of our spending is
00:23:52
nonemployee related but it is if you
00:23:55
look over the last two administrations
00:23:56
we have added million 2 million three
00:23:58
employees across all I disagree and that
00:24:01
hold on let me just finish the sentence
00:24:02
so you have the facts and then you can
00:24:03
disagree with the facts one point3
00:24:06
million additional employees added this
00:24:09
does not include contractors and so we
00:24:11
don't know what USA was doing with Nos
00:24:14
and contractors and I think that's where
00:24:16
we do need to get some clarity and to
00:24:18
chat's point this has all got to become
00:24:20
predictable you cannot put tariffs on
00:24:23
off every week or else how does your
00:24:26
friend Dave who wants to do the LED
00:24:27
lighting or your encouraging to do LED
00:24:29
lighting know if they should build a
00:24:31
factory and invest 10 million in that
00:24:34
you disagree with the number of
00:24:35
employees you want to address that yeah
00:24:37
look the government accounts for 30% of
00:24:39
GDP in the United States that's an
00:24:41
extraordinary sum so just I was talking
00:24:44
just about the employees that's a much
00:24:45
smaller percentage but that doesn't
00:24:47
matter the direct employees of federal
00:24:49
agencies is a fraction of people that
00:24:52
are employed indirectly by government
00:24:54
spending this is super important as we
00:24:56
all know many government agencies write
00:24:59
checks to large contractors
00:25:01
subcontractors and third party service
00:25:03
providers that do the work for them so
00:25:05
the money gets transferred they then
00:25:07
employ the people and they do the work
00:25:08
so it doesn't technically show up on
00:25:10
federal government payroll registers but
00:25:12
these are people that are indirectly
00:25:14
employed by federal spending that's
00:25:16
super important to to acknowledge that a
00:25:18
large percentage of the US Workforce is
00:25:20
indirectly supported by federal dollars
00:25:24
yeah it's gone up it's gone up massively
00:25:25
with the NGS too so you've had about
00:25:27
four million people employed by
00:25:28
contractors in DC 1.6 million more at
00:25:30
the states actually by federal by
00:25:32
federal spending and then you have the
00:25:34
NOS no one knows the noos Biden
00:25:36
Administration took down the data I used
00:25:38
to see things in 2020 so we don't even
00:25:40
know how much money but we know it was
00:25:41
hundreds of billions so it's pretty
00:25:43
crazy the number one thing about how
00:25:44
doge is not being done fully is that
00:25:47
Elon is doing an amazing job you know
00:25:49
whether or not he cuts 500 billion or
00:25:51
trillion or a lot more but the Senators
00:25:53
and the congressmen are not willing to
00:25:55
take it out of their bill the
00:25:56
reconciliation bill right now talking
00:25:58
about cutting one to two trillion so
00:26:00
rather than like this is over 10 years
00:26:01
it's ridiculous it's ridiculous if it
00:26:04
was equal to Elon was doing it'd be at
00:26:05
least five trillion dollar and I've
00:26:07
pushed a bunch of them they say oh the
00:26:08
Congressional budget office and all
00:26:09
these things I'm sure there's some tough
00:26:11
things there but like this is crazy we
00:26:12
need to see what these Cuts need to be
00:26:14
on Doge and we need to cut five trillion
00:26:16
and none of these people have the balls
00:26:17
to do that is there's not the political
00:26:18
will to do it is my interpretation and
00:26:20
just no coones let me just show you one
00:26:23
chart to back that up I have my new disg
00:26:25
graciados
00:26:28
look at this chamama you want to talk
00:26:30
about software and waste
00:26:33
35,8 55 according to Doge breaking news
00:26:38
service now licenses on three products
00:26:41
only being used by 84 people oh my God
00:26:45
you kidding me
00:26:47
11,000 acrobat licenses with
00:26:50
0.0 users
00:26:53
disad absolutely abhorrent and I'm
00:26:57
saying it right now I want an
00:26:59
investigation into procurement who sold
00:27:02
this who bought it this could be a crime
00:27:05
this could be fraud that could be
00:27:06
Kickbacks I'm saying there could be I
00:27:07
don't think it's that but I do think you
00:27:09
have to look at the earnings of these
00:27:11
companies in question where's totally
00:27:13
correct number two totally correct if
00:27:16
service now ever wants to work with the
00:27:18
government again Mr
00:27:20
President Mr President our president I
00:27:24
want them to pay us back for the unused
00:27:27
licensees is and I want a full order for
00:27:29
the last 10 years if they don't pay us
00:27:31
back that money and give us a credit
00:27:33
hold on list banned forever hold on it's
00:27:35
not thank you Mr President this may not
00:27:37
be service now's fault this may be the
00:27:38
inaptitude of the people that bought the
00:27:40
LI course but they should still give us
00:27:41
a credit I want the money back for the
00:27:43
American people I do think Adobe has the
00:27:45
worst have you guys ever done Adobe
00:27:46
subscriptions they're impossible to
00:27:48
cancel I think Adobe 11,000 Z us only
00:27:51
the only thing harder than cancelling an
00:27:53
adobe license is trying to cancel Wall
00:27:55
Street Journal I was about to say Wall
00:27:57
Street Journal
00:27:59
Hall of Fame let me just say something
00:28:01
about the the budget because Joe brings
00:28:04
up something important unbelievable I'll
00:28:07
just say it again at the sake of being
00:28:08
redundant we're getting to the phase
00:28:10
where the details are complicated and
00:28:12
they now matter so we've talked about
00:28:15
repealing the IRA in its totality right
00:28:18
so that was a statement and there's
00:28:20
there's theoretically a lot of money
00:28:22
there but the details now all of a
00:28:24
sudden become
00:28:26
complicated FK published a report just
00:28:29
this past week and what do you think it
00:28:32
said was the percentage of incremental
00:28:36
electricity that was generated from
00:28:38
Renewables versus non-renewables I I'll
00:28:40
tell you the answer it was almost 91% in
00:28:43
December so if you now tie two huge
00:28:47
initiatives together which is how do we
00:28:49
find a budget that saves money and how
00:28:52
do we continue to win an AI maybe you
00:28:54
would have thought those weren't related
00:28:57
well guess what
00:28:58
we know that AI needs a tremendous
00:29:01
amount of power and whatever you thought
00:29:03
you knew actually you had to reer right
00:29:06
because what Elon has shown is actually
00:29:08
you need to now create these Mega
00:29:10
clusters 100,000 gpus going to a million
00:29:13
gpus all of the Power forecasting that
00:29:16
we have is miscast it doesn't even
00:29:18
account for this number one number two
00:29:21
there are 35,000
00:29:23
applications into
00:29:25
FK to get approved to generate
00:29:29
electricity 35,000 that's going to
00:29:31
meander through some administrative
00:29:33
rigu there is a 5year delay to get a gas
00:29:38
turbine into America and
00:29:40
online okay if you ordered one today the
00:29:43
fastest that you can get it turned on is
00:29:45
2030 the fastest that you can get a
00:29:48
nuclear turned on is
00:29:49
2035 so we don't have the ability to
00:29:52
generate incremental electricity very
00:29:54
quickly but for Renewables but then if
00:29:57
you rip out the IRA there's many parts
00:30:00
of the IRA by the way that are just
00:30:02
trash Nick I don't know if you can find
00:30:04
it but Barry Weiss found this insane
00:30:06
thing that made me so angry which I'm
00:30:08
happy to talk about which was like a
00:30:10
30-day Grant process that resulted in A7
00:30:13
billion Grant to some shell oh this was
00:30:15
throwing the gold bars off the castle
00:30:18
but but the other part of the IRA this
00:30:21
narrow part is what it did to reinforce
00:30:24
tax incentives and tax equity which is a
00:30:27
200 billion
00:30:28
Market that incentivizes that 90% of
00:30:31
energy generation so my point is that
00:30:34
when you start to get into the details
00:30:36
when the house Ways and Means Community
00:30:38
has to figure out what part to put back
00:30:41
this is going to be hard because it's
00:30:43
like hold on if you got the whole thing
00:30:46
now all of a sudden you take 90% of the
00:30:47
incremental energy generation incentives
00:30:49
out of the market you don't have enough
00:30:51
electrons there isn't enough electricity
00:30:54
so then you lose the AI Ray so you start
00:30:56
to lose it I think the point is that
00:30:58
we're now in the hard part where the
00:30:59
details really matter listen you got to
00:31:02
start with the chainsaw we saw that at
00:31:04
Twitter and by the way maybe you do like
00:31:07
when we started this he just tweeted
00:31:08
this out he said guys now it's time to
00:31:10
get surgical he and he said this per yes
00:31:12
that was the metaphor I was about to use
00:31:13
is like you know you start with you cut
00:31:15
out the goddamn service now in Adobe
00:31:17
subscriptions and then you work on
00:31:19
something you know more DEA and maybe
00:31:21
that's where we are IR just for the
00:31:23
audience inflation reduction can I just
00:31:25
do a rant on this on this pop-up NGO
00:31:28
thing to me this is like the worst of
00:31:30
America and it makes me so angry and
00:31:32
I'll tell you my lived experience so I'm
00:31:34
on the other side of this I started a
00:31:36
company with these guys from Tesla to
00:31:38
make battery materials in the United
00:31:40
States in
00:31:42
2019 we grind we grind we put in tens I
00:31:45
put in tens of millions of dollars we
00:31:47
get a deal with a big
00:31:49
OEM and then you see these doe grants we
00:31:52
spent millions of dollars we file a very
00:31:55
detailed plan to build battery medals
00:31:57
and battery capacity in
00:31:59
America we got rejected okay it was an
00:32:02
entire yearlong process we got rejected
00:32:05
we put it past us we kept working we
00:32:08
found more deals we found a way to
00:32:10
survive raise a little bit more money
00:32:13
and then we applied again on some
00:32:15
success and we got a $100 million Grant
00:32:19
okay that was that's what just happened
00:32:21
this year but then yesterday I read and
00:32:24
Nick maybe you can throw this tweet up
00:32:25
this Barry Weiss investigation
00:32:29
somebody in 30 days who was connected to
00:32:32
the Democratic infrastructure had some
00:32:34
shell organization that got a grant that
00:32:36
was 70 times bigger than us like we've
00:32:41
made stuff we have deals with
00:32:43
oems we had to validate every step of
00:32:45
the way we were rejected once so our
00:32:47
process to get a $100 million doe
00:32:50
program was two years these people
00:32:53
showed up in 30 days and got seven
00:32:55
billion that's just wrong why didn't you
00:32:59
put why didn't you lead with Dei or
00:33:01
something you would have gotten a
00:33:02
billion you just LED with the wrong
00:33:03
thing you were actually providing a
00:33:04
product or service people need this is
00:33:07
this this is why you don't have any
00:33:08
equity in there for the minerals this is
00:33:11
why it's so frustrating to build for the
00:33:12
government guys this is what paler and
00:33:13
SpaceX had to deal with that's why they
00:33:15
both sued the government is that all the
00:33:16
friends who used to be the CIO used to
00:33:18
be the general made the right donations
00:33:21
had the right kid on the board it's all
00:33:23
corrupt and then the actual substantive
00:33:24
people you have to work like how do they
00:33:26
give $7 billion in 30 days we're gonna
00:33:30
find out you got a bunch of democra
00:33:32
operatives on the board let well let me
00:33:33
challenge you guys on one point there
00:33:35
are now claims being made by reporters
00:33:38
and by Third parties that are saying it
00:33:40
is a new form of
00:33:41
kleptocracy with all the friends of
00:33:43
Silicon Valley installing their friends
00:33:46
and agency heads as under secretaries
00:33:49
and so on that's going to benefit
00:33:51
Silicon Valley investors Silicon Valley
00:33:53
companies Joe jamath Jal I mean how do
00:33:56
you guys react the claims that there's
00:33:59
now you know this new kind of
00:34:00
kleptocratic movement it's the old guard
00:34:02
is gone new guard you have paler you
00:34:05
have andreil so go ahead you you answer
00:34:07
let's let's talk about this I mean when
00:34:09
we go to DC when I go to DC what I am
00:34:11
asking is I want there to be a Fair
00:34:13
competition and if I win I want my
00:34:15
company to actually be able to win the
00:34:16
contract because the way it's worked for
00:34:18
20 years like like epis you just raised
00:34:20
$250 million this week it's a great
00:34:22
company we you know we had a big contest
00:34:24
four years ago L3 rathon northr these
00:34:27
guys you know in and out of government
00:34:28
for decades they've they've gotten tens
00:34:30
of billions of dollars to the same
00:34:31
technology area when we went
00:34:33
head-to-head with them we we didn't just
00:34:35
like beat them by a little bit we shot
00:34:36
down the hardened drones nine and a half
00:34:38
times farther away same size same power
00:34:40
nine and a half times completely wiped
00:34:41
the floor what was the cost difference
00:34:42
between the bids like are you saving us
00:34:44
massive money massive money I invested
00:34:46
only 30 40 in the whole thing at that
00:34:48
point and they spent billions and we
00:34:49
have much cheaper much better not even a
00:34:51
question and and you talk to the and you
00:34:53
talk to like at the time the the chief
00:34:55
of staff of the Air Force the guy run
00:34:56
the four star and and he says well Joe
00:34:58
this was written three years ago it
00:35:00
looks like rathon probably did help
00:35:01
write it and they required all these
00:35:03
things and your way you're doing it I'm
00:35:04
like I I'm like yeah I'm using a chip
00:35:06
instead of a cathod ray tube that's why
00:35:07
it's working so much better like yeah
00:35:08
but it was written for the way they're
00:35:09
doing it and I could overrule it but it
00:35:11
break a lot of glass so you probably
00:35:13
wouldn't get in three years because
00:35:14
everyone knows you're the best but it's
00:35:15
too it's too frust you know it's too
00:35:16
stressful to give it to you right now
00:35:18
like that is that so so so what I'm
00:35:19
doing is I'm not going and saying give
00:35:21
my company's money I'm saying I'm saying
00:35:23
make this actually a functional logical
00:35:25
process and give me a chance to win it
00:35:26
from the best and that that is a hundred
00:35:28
times better for our country to push how
00:35:30
do you but how do you make that
00:35:31
transparent and how do you avoid there
00:35:33
has to be massive transparency how do
00:35:35
you avoid the the perception of conflict
00:35:37
and the perception of kleptocracy well
00:35:39
it's acquisition it's acquisition reform
00:35:41
right so like this this a really
00:35:42
important story you guys probably know
00:35:43
we were in the Philippine jungles in the
00:35:45
early 1910s needed new pistols our
00:35:47
pistols were terrible they had like a
00:35:48
one-page thing what they needed there's
00:35:50
six arm manufacturers competed that's
00:35:52
how we got the Colt 1911 in like three
00:35:53
months it won by the by by a large
00:35:56
amount it's an awesome gun uh 12 years
00:35:59
ago we had a 700 something page document
00:36:01
that the bureaucrats spent years on
00:36:03
outling what they needed for a new
00:36:04
pistol or probably needed to do Dei
00:36:05
stuff I have no idea it's like this long
00:36:07
comical document they still don't have a
00:36:09
new pistol today and so the way the way
00:36:11
we do it is we have a very clear process
00:36:14
where it's very specific on the outcomes
00:36:16
not on the inputs and you have a contest
00:36:18
and and then and then you make sure that
00:36:20
you know it's not it's obvious who wins
00:36:21
guys it's not like we're like slightly
00:36:23
better it's like we're shaming them so
00:36:24
the only way they can stop us is by
00:36:26
playing these games so much
00:36:29
better I think that if you're in the
00:36:31
administration or if you join some part
00:36:35
of the administration whether you're a
00:36:37
full-time employee or a gsse or just a
00:36:40
volunteer there's going to be that
00:36:42
perception of impropriety or influence
00:36:44
pedaling that's comes with the territory
00:36:47
so how do you avoid it and I think that
00:36:50
Joe is exactly right when the
00:36:52
administration was getting formed one of
00:36:54
the things that happened I had an
00:36:55
opportunity to work with some of the
00:36:56
folks to write some proposals for what
00:36:59
theoretically could happen in some of
00:37:00
these bigger government organizations
00:37:02
where there's just huge pockets of spend
00:37:05
and where I spent most of my time is
00:37:06
what Joe talked about how do you create
00:37:09
Open Standards so that it's very clear
00:37:13
what the competition is so that the
00:37:15
rules on the ground can't get
00:37:17
manipulated by people who are rolling
00:37:19
out of government into private industry
00:37:22
or somebody has a very deep relationship
00:37:24
because of lobbying those are the things
00:37:26
that pervert the clarity of what should
00:37:28
happen because then what happens can be
00:37:30
far a field to that so number one is I
00:37:33
think knowing that this time around a
00:37:36
different class of people are going to
00:37:38
be seen on the quote unquote popular
00:37:41
side it's really critical that all of us
00:37:45
that are involved in this promote
00:37:47
extremely transparent Open Standards
00:37:50
publish every RFP publish every spec
00:37:53
publish every evaluation criteria make
00:37:56
these things as mean itic as possible so
00:37:58
for example if you're going to go and
00:38:01
field a drone there's an incredibly
00:38:04
detailed set of data that you should be
00:38:06
publishing in it's not dissimilar to how
00:38:08
an FAA asks for flight test data and you
00:38:11
should be able to review that so that
00:38:14
then it can be escalated so that if
00:38:16
somebody then gets a deal because of
00:38:17
preference and you think you're
00:38:19
structurally better on the data there
00:38:22
needs to be an escalation and a release
00:38:23
valve that says hold on this is just
00:38:25
being manipulated and I think that's you
00:38:27
fight back yeah on not just this version
00:38:30
of a potential Winning Side versus
00:38:32
losing side but forever in the future
00:38:34
the government should be open the
00:38:37
government should be transparent and
00:38:39
every single point at which they're
00:38:41
making a decision and giving money
00:38:43
should be measurable and known you guys
00:38:45
got exactly right there's
00:38:47
transparency there's oversight obviously
00:38:50
but there's whistleblowers as well and
00:38:52
there's the role of the press in all of
00:38:53
this to sort of fact check it and to
00:38:56
check in on it as a safeguard with the
00:38:59
public getting engaged and that's one of
00:39:00
the great things that Doge has done by
00:39:03
having a Twitter handle I can pull up
00:39:05
hey here's what's going on with these
00:39:06
licenses and make an example so that
00:39:09
kind of transparency helps and then
00:39:10
finally we have to look at campaign
00:39:13
finance that is where a lot of the
00:39:15
appearance of proprietary exists go back
00:39:18
to this other thing because that's a
00:39:19
super important Point like it just
00:39:20
occurred to me that if what you said
00:39:22
happens then look the incentive today in
00:39:25
America is to try to position oneself to
00:39:28
have one of these
00:39:29
roles and the reason is because David of
00:39:32
what you said there is the chance to
00:39:34
then preferentially nudge an opportunity
00:39:37
your way right yes why do people sit on
00:39:41
committees why do people
00:39:43
volunteer at least at that level and if
00:39:47
you introduce Open Standards then the
00:39:50
real incentive to want to go do this
00:39:52
should be because you actually are
00:39:53
patriotic and want to just help so chth
00:39:55
I think I think you're right about the
00:39:56
standards but I want push back on the
00:39:58
incentive today like I know a lot of the
00:40:00
people who are getting into this and I
00:40:02
really do think they're there to fight
00:40:03
for the country I don't just say this
00:40:05
like as like you know naively or
00:40:07
something like these people really are
00:40:08
there for the right reasons for the most
00:40:09
part no I know I'm just saying generally
00:40:11
over like the last 50 years if you look
00:40:13
at people there is this implied sense
00:40:15
like for example like Goldman Sachs had
00:40:17
a direct line to become treasury
00:40:19
secretary if you were the CEO of Goldman
00:40:21
You' you were the treasury secretary now
00:40:24
don't you think that that was discussed
00:40:25
amongst Partners at Goldman and and do
00:40:27
we not think on the margins that that
00:40:29
beneficially helped Goldman of course it
00:40:31
did we'd be we'd be naive to think
00:40:32
otherwise my my point is not that my
00:40:35
point is just that going forward the
00:40:36
best thing all of our friends could do
00:40:39
is just make it all open source and Open
00:40:41
Standards that would be an incredible
00:40:43
artifact I think for America Joe I think
00:40:45
you telling us hey I trust these people
00:40:47
they're our friends you know that works
00:40:49
with all of us because yes we know them
00:40:50
we know they're going to do the standup
00:40:52
right thing and if you already have a
00:40:53
ton of money like some incremental
00:40:55
amount of money is not going to move the
00:40:56
needle for you it's it's farsal for us
00:40:58
to think that David Sachs is going to
00:41:00
give up four years of income producing
00:41:02
have to sell all his positions and that
00:41:05
is in some way good for his balance
00:41:06
sheet it is not he's going to miss out
00:41:08
on four years of AI and the massive
00:41:11
runup of our lifetime in order to serve
00:41:13
the country but I can tell you people
00:41:15
don't believe that just like you know
00:41:17
you talked about the kleptocracy and the
00:41:19
revolving door to raon or whoever that
00:41:22
people have talked about forever what
00:41:24
you need is whistleblower protections
00:41:27
journalists going after this like Barry
00:41:29
Weiss is doing old school journalism
00:41:32
investigative The Whistleblower laws are
00:41:35
great in our country we need to keep
00:41:36
reinforcing those but I'm going to go
00:41:38
back to we need to limit campaign
00:41:41
contributions we have to get rid of
00:41:42
super packs because these create the
00:41:44
appearance of impropriety and the
00:41:46
appearance of impropriety with Trump's
00:41:47
mean coin and that announcement on
00:41:49
Sunday for the crypto Reserve was you
00:41:52
know it doesn't help the mission here
00:41:55
that Trump is trying to get done so so
00:41:57
maybe you could speak to that because
00:41:58
that's where the appearance of
00:41:59
impropriety is great you got people like
00:42:01
Sor who's doing his Bitcoin thing he's
00:42:04
going on Friday and you know sax will do
00:42:07
a do a little bit here and announce some
00:42:09
stuff on the program hopefully but maybe
00:42:12
you could talk about what you objected
00:42:14
to with the coins the meme coin Endor
00:42:18
the the announcement of the crypto
00:42:20
Reserve should our government and after
00:42:23
all this donations from massive people
00:42:26
like I saw at the crypto ball all the
00:42:28
people who were tweeted by Trump that
00:42:29
looks terrible you tell me what you
00:42:32
think I agree with you on the Tweet
00:42:33
you're sneaking two things together here
00:42:35
though so I want to be really precise
00:42:36
Jason because let's be precise that's
00:42:37
what we do here there are a lot of
00:42:39
different possible ways that people can
00:42:42
help politicians and so one of them is
00:42:44
if you're a celebrity like even all your
00:42:46
guys show at this point you can you can
00:42:48
affect what people think that's powerful
00:42:50
more there's there's other ways that if
00:42:52
you're part of a big Union if you're
00:42:54
part of a government Union that's very
00:42:55
powerful you know in our society if
00:42:58
you're part of the American Medical
00:42:59
Association Healthcare System that the
00:43:01
doctors and health systems are very
00:43:02
powerful even without super packs in our
00:43:04
society and what a Super PAC is it's a
00:43:06
former free speech and it's true wealthy
00:43:08
people have the ability to influence
00:43:10
things through that speech but it's like
00:43:12
one of many and so if you're cutting
00:43:14
that you're basically saying okay I
00:43:15
don't want Elon and Joe to have as much
00:43:17
say there but I do want to have even
00:43:19
more say for the celebrities and for the
00:43:21
doctors and for the union members and
00:43:22
government so you have to realize you're
00:43:23
dealing with a complicated situation
00:43:25
with lots of forms of power I do agree
00:43:27
with you as I said listen I saw David
00:43:29
and gave each other a hug I think we're
00:43:30
all good but I was very frustrated with
00:43:33
the posts of trump mentioning specific
00:43:35
coins I don't know who was trading them
00:43:36
before it just looks bad like we're
00:43:38
fighting all this grift doing all these
00:43:39
things where we have the moral High
00:43:40
Ground I agree I don't want to give up
00:43:42
the moral High ground with these with
00:43:43
these silly schemes that that that's
00:43:45
100% the case are you saying with like
00:43:47
there's many forms of influence that you
00:43:48
think Super packs and rich people should
00:43:50
be able to I think speech is important
00:43:52
$50 million $2 million donations you
00:43:55
actually think that's fair for democracy
00:43:57
I actually I actually think speech is
00:43:59
very important I think the ability for
00:44:00
me to send out something is say guys I'm
00:44:02
studying this it's corrupt it's been
00:44:04
corrupt for 50 years we have to all get
00:44:06
together and stand against these Health
00:44:07
Systems these crazy defense companies
00:44:09
that have captured and broken everything
00:44:10
like I I think my ability to speak and
00:44:12
do that and to convince people is really
00:44:14
valuable and I and I've you know I
00:44:15
passed dozens of laws each year into
00:44:17
these different states by convincing
00:44:18
people nothing to do with making me
00:44:20
money that these incentives and
00:44:21
accountability are wrong I think that's
00:44:23
a good thing that I'm allowed to do that
00:44:25
should be so when you say speech you
00:44:27
write a check you mean write very large
00:44:29
checks you have to be careful that the
00:44:31
reason the Supreme Court ruled for super
00:44:32
packs is not just about giving you're
00:44:34
not you're not giving them the money
00:44:35
you're actually speaking yourself so
00:44:37
when Elon spends $300 million he's
00:44:39
actually spending it many times putting
00:44:41
out his own speech or he's putting out
00:44:45
what about you Jamal do you think that
00:44:47
Soros Elon let's take the names out of
00:44:49
it do you think there should be a cap on
00:44:51
what you're able to donate to Super Pacs
00:44:53
because this does create the massive
00:44:54
appearance of impropriety whether it's
00:44:56
in Crypt
00:44:57
whether it's on the you know Soros on
00:44:59
the Democrat side this seems to be I
00:45:02
mean I I'm in favor of there being more
00:45:03
hard caps whether it's 510 or 25 million
00:45:06
I think there needs to be caps and I
00:45:07
think we should put a fund together for
00:45:09
the last two or three people and let
00:45:10
them get that money from the government
00:45:13
to run their campaigns like other
00:45:15
countries do I think it's important to
00:45:17
note that this pendulum
00:45:19
has swung pretty wildly out of wax in
00:45:23
citizens united yeah and it's not this
00:45:26
is not a republic thing meaning there's
00:45:28
a whole buch of factions there's the
00:45:30
George Soros faction that's true there's
00:45:32
the liberal Democrat faction L we forget
00:45:35
I think Zuck spent 350 million in 2020
00:45:38
oh yeah then there's the kooch brothers
00:45:42
faction and then there's what showed up
00:45:44
this year with Elon so my point is
00:45:47
there's all kinds of pockets of spending
00:45:49
in all manner of ways I think the
00:45:51
question is should citizens united have
00:45:54
allowed this kind of spending and are we
00:45:57
better off as a democracy for it and I
00:46:00
think what does shamat think the reason
00:46:02
why I would be in favor of going back to
00:46:04
the way it was is that I think the
00:46:07
biggest problem is the redistricting and
00:46:09
the jury mandering that happens and the
00:46:11
amount of influence that happens
00:46:13
Downstream inside of state and local
00:46:16
elections and there are just places that
00:46:19
are just so sclerotic
00:46:23
stuck if you look at the federal despite
00:46:25
all the spending you still see at the
00:46:28
presidential level like pretty
00:46:30
reasonable and healthy competition
00:46:33
between two people it's much more
00:46:36
difficult to see dynamism lower and
00:46:38
lower down ballot and so the reason to
00:46:41
get rid of citizens united from my
00:46:43
perspective is that you'd have much more
00:46:45
vibrant local state mayoral elections
00:46:49
those things have huge impacts I think
00:46:51
to to Quality okay so you and I are in
00:46:53
that camp Joe's in the other freeberg
00:46:55
your thoughts you're the desire vote
00:46:57
here it's two to one in terms of the
00:47:00
panel well you just said to me you you
00:47:02
just said to me you think we should go
00:47:04
back the Supreme Court's on my side so
00:47:06
you guys are in trouble no no yeah I
00:47:08
mean but the point of this program
00:47:10
sometimes is not just to is to take
00:47:12
ownership of your opinion and defend it
00:47:14
so I we have I want to see people own it
00:47:17
here in the discourse or freeberg you
00:47:19
can say pass but you don't get to say
00:47:21
nothing okay what does it mean to spend
00:47:25
money on on a political point of view
00:47:29
exactly what does it mean it it means
00:47:31
you can put a book I mean the other side
00:47:33
wanted to censor books because like like
00:47:35
if I want if I want to pay someone to
00:47:38
make a book for me if I want to pay
00:47:39
someone if I want to pay 50 people to go
00:47:43
and engage the community so I can get
00:47:45
some leverage on my time if I want to
00:47:47
pay someone to make a website to promote
00:47:49
my point of view on something I should
00:47:51
be able to do that and if my point of
00:47:53
view is related to a vote that Congress
00:47:57
might be taking or is related to a
00:48:00
candidate that's running for election or
00:48:03
is related to taxes or is related to
00:48:05
some other social issue I don't know how
00:48:08
you can kind of very clearly delineate
00:48:10
the difference between some kind of
00:48:12
political party or some political
00:48:15
candidate versus my having a point of
00:48:17
view on an issue if I care very deeply
00:48:20
about animal Weare which I do and if I
00:48:22
had enough money that I felt like I
00:48:24
could spend that money to influence
00:48:26
people's point of view you to improve
00:48:28
Animal Welfare through laws and through
00:48:30
candidates I would spend that money and
00:48:33
I should have a right to do so and I
00:48:34
shouldn't feel restricted that I can't
00:48:36
go publicly express my voice make
00:48:38
websites put up Billboards put up
00:48:40
posters buy ads and papers telling
00:48:42
people how wrong it is the way we treat
00:48:45
animals and slaughter them and keep them
00:48:47
living for their very short lives in
00:48:49
Terrorist conditions I want to be able
00:48:51
to express that point of view and so I
00:48:53
kind of Veer to this idea can I ask you
00:48:54
a question would you do you think that
00:48:56
your money spending if the balance of
00:48:58
power to get your view was
00:49:01
to redistrict
00:49:04
certain places so that then you could
00:49:06
get a majority of people that were
00:49:08
ideologically aligned to you elected
00:49:10
would you do that as well forget there's
00:49:12
no ads running this is about a different
00:49:14
form of electoral influence would you do
00:49:16
that so not spending money you're saying
00:49:18
like I'm not spending money to you you'd
00:49:19
spend money but it's not for ads it's
00:49:21
not for how does that work how do you
00:49:22
spend money to redistrict you get
00:49:24
certain people elected by Trucking
00:49:26
people out to vote and then you get that
00:49:29
person to join a coalition that then
00:49:31
redistricts I mean maybe Trucking people
00:49:33
out to vote as an action should be
00:49:34
illegal that seems pretty reasonable to
00:49:36
me well yeah I mean to your point
00:49:37
freeberg you asked like how do you
00:49:39
define it what I'm trying to point out
00:49:40
to you is for every dollar that goes
00:49:42
into politics I think it's I would ask
00:49:45
you guys to just suspend belief that
00:49:48
100% of that goes to ads no no what I'm
00:49:50
trying to say is I would say a very
00:49:52
small not a very small 10 10 10 to 20
00:49:55
cents goes to ads 80% goes to all kinds
00:49:57
of shady stuff and this also canvas by
00:50:00
the way you call it Shady but I would
00:50:01
argue like what if I want to make a
00:50:02
bunch of websites what if I want to make
00:50:05
like you know have people go out and
00:50:06
express the point of view in the Town
00:50:08
Square you know like there are other
00:50:09
aspects of what you might what I'm
00:50:11
saying that's fine that's in the 10 cent
00:50:13
bucket the 80 cents what I'm trying to
00:50:14
tell you explicitly is how it's spent
00:50:16
today is not in the ways that you think
00:50:18
I think that the fact that someone calls
00:50:20
it Shady might be because they disagree
00:50:21
with my point of view and if they agree
00:50:23
with my point of view they might not
00:50:24
call I think I think the tactics today
00:50:27
look I play with the conditions on the
00:50:28
field but if you look at them meaning
00:50:30
like using dollar incentives to
00:50:32
incentivize people that's allowed today
00:50:35
you can pay people to vote today before
00:50:37
we had pay them to join a super pack or
00:50:40
something like that but let hold on let
00:50:41
me let me just get Joe involved here so
00:50:43
Joe you heard freeberg you're kind of in
00:50:45
alignment I think broadly yeah but we
00:50:47
can Define some very specific things
00:50:49
that are obviously political like the
00:50:51
window of when you spend the money like
00:50:55
telling people well because you could
00:50:56
say say in the six
00:50:58
in I'm not tarting a specific vote I get
00:51:01
it I get it if you're not if you're
00:51:02
targeting an issue that's one thing but
00:51:04
when you tell people she's for they them
00:51:06
he's for you that's clearly a political
00:51:09
ad now you could take those ads you
00:51:11
could take canvasing you could Define a
00:51:13
subset of behaviors and you could say
00:51:15
you can raise up to this amount of money
00:51:17
per person in that way that's me those
00:51:20
things are explicitly political when you
00:51:22
tell people this is about candidate a
00:51:24
versus candidate B if you were say this
00:51:27
we're not going to mention any
00:51:28
candidates but we're going to talk about
00:51:29
your puppies and you trying to increase
00:51:31
your Q score here on the goddamn pod by
00:51:33
Saving puppies don't be Animal Welfare
00:51:36
is a [Â __Â ] up issue and something you
00:51:38
to be agreement with you I just don't
00:51:39
like how many points you're scoring with
00:51:40
the audience over did you guys see this
00:51:42
thing on Instagram my wife show
00:51:43
ridiculous I'm Gonna Save five puppies
00:51:45
for my Ranch somebody save some cows did
00:51:48
you guys see this Instagram reel my wife
00:51:50
showed it to me it's like of a of a calf
00:51:53
chasing a dog and it cuts to this Asian
00:51:57
guy and he's like what's the big deal
00:51:58
here what are we talking about like you
00:52:00
know you want us to not eat everything
00:52:02
blah blah blah and then he realizes that
00:52:03
they're talking about the dog versus the
00:52:05
the cat don't trigger freeberg don't do
00:52:07
that leave freeberg freeberg I got 33
00:52:09
ACR of paradise don't laugh I got 33
00:52:12
Acres patus I'm going to save every
00:52:14
animal in in Central Texas I'm gonna eat
00:52:17
them and I and I would give you money to
00:52:18
do that got a deal actually I I actually
00:52:23
I agree with what jamath was saying
00:52:24
about Jerry mandering I think we could
00:52:25
use AI for that's a separate
00:52:27
conversation it's it's discussing how it
00:52:28
works right now however Jason the
00:52:30
problem at the end of the day with
00:52:31
defining what's political or not is the
00:52:33
boundary cases are really tough and you
00:52:34
do end up needing effectively
00:52:36
effectively a censorship word example is
00:52:38
I write I write a book about the dangers
00:52:41
of Communism and it explains how it's
00:52:44
linked to things going on today and I
00:52:45
like give it out at like all these
00:52:47
people are gonna be voting I mean
00:52:48
there's just so many boundary cases said
00:52:51
you can spend up to 10 million a year
00:52:53
doing political activity 10 million a
00:52:54
year gives you a cap so you can only
00:52:57
B this is not political activity it's my
00:52:59
art this is this is an artistic piece
00:53:01
but when you put the book in and say
00:53:03
vote for Biden then we would say okay
00:53:05
you put a vote for B you see what I'm
00:53:07
saying though it becomes it becomes
00:53:08
really complicated I just ran it through
00:53:11
grock and what the answer was is that
00:53:15
56% of all the spending happens to be on
00:53:19
ads and 44% of all dollars in 24 25 was
00:53:22
spent on other yeah so there you put
00:53:25
canvasing in there I bet you it's 75% so
00:53:28
if we just say for those two activities
00:53:30
put a hard cap on them I would be for
00:53:31
that but let's keep going we got a bunch
00:53:33
of about the market Market's let's talk
00:53:36
about cor weave all right gentlemen we
00:53:38
can't talk about politics all day as
00:53:39
exciting as it is let's talk about this
00:53:42
cor weave IPO if you don't know cor
00:53:44
weave is part of a new type of
00:53:47
infrastructure provider called neocloud
00:53:50
it's a fancy way of saying using gpus to
00:53:52
build data
00:53:54
centers this is a really interesting
00:53:55
company because they got on to gpus
00:53:57
early and they had a lock in on a large
00:54:00
number of nvidia's gpus they've uh got
00:54:04
32 data centers with 250,000 Nvidia gpus
00:54:08
as an example when Elon built the
00:54:11
largest fastest uh data center Colossus
00:54:15
that was 100,000 so this is you know
00:54:17
really really a big company they're
00:54:19
going to do an IPO analysts are
00:54:21
estimating they're going to raise at
00:54:22
least 3.5 billion at over $30 billion
00:54:25
doar their secondary was 23 billion in
00:54:29
November of 2024 so this is cooking with
00:54:32
oil they've got incredible Revenue by
00:54:34
the way 1.9 billion in 2024 but if you
00:54:37
look at two years ago how much revenue
00:54:38
they have the growth is amazing Nick put
00:54:40
a chart in here and post because uh it's
00:54:43
like a 10x I think each year or
00:54:45
something crazy like that when I talked
00:54:46
about it on the other pod but they're
00:54:48
very unprofitable almost a billion
00:54:50
dollars in loss in
00:54:52
2024 and that's interest payments on a
00:54:55
lot of their debt almost 8 billion in
00:54:58
debt huge debt load to buy all these
00:54:59
gpus and that has been the question
00:55:01
we've been talking about here trth is
00:55:04
are these gpus are these neoc clouds
00:55:07
fancy way of saying I'll give you couple
00:55:10
factoids about cor which I find super
00:55:12
impressive so the first question is like
00:55:13
you would say why didn't
00:55:15
AWS gcp and azour eat these guys for
00:55:19
breakfast lunch and dinner and as it
00:55:22
turns out they had one very specific
00:55:25
technical decision that I think was
00:55:27
extremely valuable which is that these
00:55:28
guys did not use hypervisors explain
00:55:31
what that is so a hypervisor is
00:55:32
basically a middle Weare layer of
00:55:34
software that allows you to
00:55:36
abstract units of compute so that then
00:55:39
you can make them available and instead
00:55:41
they basically allowed you to write to
00:55:43
the bare metal and this very native
00:55:45
approach that allowed them to get a lot
00:55:46
of traction so it's a really interesting
00:55:49
thing to note that just that simple
00:55:51
thing like one simple technical design
00:55:54
decision can allow you to build what
00:55:57
looks like at least from the revenue
00:55:59
perspective an incredible business right
00:56:01
so kudos to them super awesome to see
00:56:04
that you can still maneuver around the
00:56:06
big giants I think that that's cool I
00:56:08
think the big question with cor weave is
00:56:11
what is the period of amortization and
00:56:13
the useful life of these gpus from
00:56:16
Nvidia and I think that that question is
00:56:18
up in the air as you said Jason a lot of
00:56:20
their losses are these interest
00:56:23
payments and as long as that they have
00:56:26
that calculated right in their models
00:56:28
that they Ed to borrow all this money to
00:56:30
buy all these gpus from Nvidia this is
00:56:33
going to be a Killer Business to the
00:56:36
extent that they got that calculation
00:56:38
wrong meaning we thought the useful life
00:56:40
was 10 years but it turned out to be
00:56:42
five this business is deeply underwater
00:56:45
so I think that that's the bet the bet
00:56:47
is they've built an amount of Headway
00:56:50
they're going to continue to do this
00:56:53
good technical engineering
00:56:56
but the other side of it is is the
00:56:57
useful life right is the technology
00:57:00
curve right is Moore's law and all these
00:57:01
other things will they work in its favor
00:57:03
or against it and I think that's Jo
00:57:06
people say useful lifespan gpus three to
00:57:09
five years before the next generation is
00:57:12
so much more powerful especially in
00:57:14
relation to power consumption that it's
00:57:17
worth running it now with servers old
00:57:19
CPUs for running Facebook it's a totally
00:57:22
different story you can keep those
00:57:23
running five to seven years before it's
00:57:25
not running them you have to turn them
00:57:27
off what do you think here bus you're
00:57:29
right there's an economic question on
00:57:30
the power and all these things I
00:57:31
actually know Brandon he lives nearby me
00:57:32
in my house in Montana he's a really
00:57:34
smart guy and I think the really
00:57:35
interesting thing you know when they
00:57:36
built this that I think is relevant
00:57:37
going forward is these guys were
00:57:39
Commodities Traders and they were
00:57:40
originally buying stuff to like mine
00:57:42
Bitcoin other stuff like that and they
00:57:44
realized as Commodities Traders there's
00:57:46
like a certain supply and demand in the
00:57:47
market of GPU chips but also of all the
00:57:50
data centers by the way and it's really
00:57:52
it's really interesting what they did is
00:57:53
they locked down the full supply of tons
00:57:56
of data centers tons of the power they
00:57:57
needed tons of the chips and they're
00:57:59
very very thoughtful I mean they're
00:58:00
effectively they're Traders and they're
00:58:02
and they're very economic and they have
00:58:04
I think they have bottled this stuff
00:58:05
well that explains the technical
00:58:06
decision because they have to have very
00:58:08
low latency throughput in order to
00:58:10
transact efficiently as Commodities
00:58:12
Traders I'm guessing there is one heel
00:58:15
here for this company Friedberg they had
00:58:17
massive Revenue growth but they have a
00:58:20
dependency 60% of the revenue now from
00:58:22
Microsoft and Microsoft seems to have
00:58:25
done this either it's unclear but maybe
00:58:28
to service the open AI deal where they
00:58:30
needed to give them a bunch of
00:58:31
infrastructure or it might be for Azure
00:58:33
it's unclear people have been asking
00:58:35
this question for a couple of years now
00:58:37
but what do you think of a business with
00:58:39
one client with 60% dependency and this
00:58:42
is how these things work Jason is they
00:58:43
just one client tends to grow really
00:58:45
really fast and they they're actually
00:58:46
you know so they do this orchestration
00:58:48
framework called sunk I know a little
00:58:50
bit about it this like really easy for
00:58:51
scheduling workflows and batches and all
00:58:53
these things that I think a lot of other
00:58:54
people are using really well they've
00:58:56
just bought weights and biases right
00:58:57
which like everyone uses basically
00:59:00
that's a great buyes they're killer for
00:59:02
training I mean I think these guys
00:59:03
crushing training saell said that
00:59:06
Microsoft was doing this maybe not for a
00:59:08
long-term usage so freeberg your
00:59:11
thoughts on Cor
00:59:12
weave I'm not as deep as you guys are I
00:59:15
remember in
00:59:16
2003 I worked for nine months at a
00:59:19
private Equity Firm and I would cold
00:59:21
call like companies that hadn't raised
00:59:23
Venture Capital that were profitable and
00:59:26
growing and see if they would take our
00:59:27
money that's the business model and I
00:59:29
spent a lot of time in the sector of
00:59:32
businesses that were called speed
00:59:34
doublers I don't know if you guys
00:59:35
remember these companies 2003 was before
00:59:38
we all had broadband internet so we were
00:59:39
a lot of people were using dialup and
00:59:41
you could pay $9.99 a month for a speed
00:59:43
doubler and what it would do is it would
00:59:45
basically on your browser set the server
00:59:48
to be their server and they had a cache
00:59:51
of many of the popular sites on the
00:59:52
internet so when you started browsing
00:59:54
the internet on your computer everything
00:59:56
loaded faster because they had really
00:59:58
fast servers and you got these cashes
01:00:00
and these companies dude they were doing
01:00:02
like tens of millions of Revenue high
01:00:04
margin 50% plus ebit margin and growing
01:00:07
like 100% plus a year and I remember we
01:00:11
we spent a bunch of time looking at
01:00:12
these companies this is right before I
01:00:13
joined Google and I was like this feels
01:00:16
like a transitory business it's like an
01:00:18
Arbitrage between where we were and
01:00:20
where we're going and that's what ended
01:00:23
up happening many of them just cash
01:00:24
flowed out the founders took money they
01:00:26
were able to get a really smart private
01:00:27
Equity recap done get some money out and
01:00:29
run at some low multiple of EA or
01:00:31
something and so I worry a little bit
01:00:34
about a business like this where there's
01:00:36
four or five companies that are each
01:00:38
doing 80 billion dollar of capex this
01:00:41
year to create infrastructure that
01:00:43
effectively starts to replace what these
01:00:45
guys are effectively offering out as a
01:00:47
service that would be my biggest kind if
01:00:49
I was to do diligence on this business
01:00:51
that's where I would spend a lot of my
01:00:52
time is like guys what's the capacity
01:00:54
going to be in a year two sort like when
01:00:56
Broadband hit the internet you didn't
01:00:57
need speed doublers anymore do you
01:00:59
really need to be paying as much as you
01:01:00
are today is there going to be as much
01:01:02
demand how much is this going to get
01:01:03
bundled in with gcp or AWS and so on in
01:01:06
the future so that would be my kind of
01:01:08
macro hesitation and caution on the
01:01:10
diligence as I ran my diligence on this
01:01:12
thing you basically need an economist to
01:01:14
map this all out it's the same question
01:01:15
for data centers in a related way right
01:01:17
which you just need to map everything
01:01:18
and I I don't have those D those numbers
01:01:20
so you're right it's a hard thing to
01:01:22
figure out that's right that's right
01:01:23
well the founders have control of the
01:01:24
company I they
01:01:26
sold few they sold a lot maybe it's 150
01:01:29
each or yeah but but they've kept most
01:01:31
of their position they're smart guys so
01:01:32
let's see yeah they still own the
01:01:34
majority I don't know so I don't want to
01:01:36
speak negatively about the business and
01:01:37
I haven't spent much time on it but I
01:01:38
mean I think that the worst that can
01:01:40
happen if you speak negatively about
01:01:42
somebody's business you know you tell us
01:01:44
you us Prof for years you tell us no
01:01:49
idea what is it like to be on somebody's
01:01:51
list for a decade I don't know I mean
01:01:53
the ratings keep going up for this week
01:01:55
and startups all in so I'll I'll take it
01:01:58
shout out are you purposefully starting
01:02:00
to dress up Jal by the way because I
01:02:01
notice every week now you're wearing a
01:02:03
butt I had a speak I had a speaking gig
01:02:05
but my friends at
01:02:08
Eton reached out to me so I might be
01:02:10
trying to do a little gri right now are
01:02:12
you plugging right now Laura Piana
01:02:14
hasn't reached out but Eton shirts which
01:02:15
I'm wearing right now e n you know the
01:02:17
famous uh shirt people are they've been
01:02:20
reaching out and I also no no no no I
01:02:22
got but I'm also saying Tom for's people
01:02:24
reached out and said you know that
01:02:26
pelvin you can take that off if you want
01:02:27
we'll have somebody come over so I just
01:02:29
want to shout out my friends over there
01:02:30
I have noal deal out the Kon k i t o n
01:02:33
jackets I've been wearing k i
01:02:36
o jackets on Earth I wear them all the
01:02:39
time I love those jackets just saying
01:02:41
let's move on way yes and Joe lale's
01:02:44
outfits are done by the Wagers the weers
01:02:46
in China he gets them specifically made
01:02:48
for $17 each recently I was recently
01:02:51
sponsored by a company this this service
01:02:53
is incredible what they do is when
01:02:55
you're
01:02:57
flying they they meet you at the FBO and
01:03:00
they take your watch and they they set
01:03:02
the new time for you so especially if
01:03:04
it's a mechanical watch is a very
01:03:06
complicated oh this is very important
01:03:07
right I you know what I was fly you got
01:03:09
to be kidding me that this
01:03:11
exists and I had my watch collection and
01:03:14
they did this for me when I was flying
01:03:15
between Montenegro and maltas absolutely
01:03:18
just trolling I'm just trolling this is
01:03:21
like for spy villains telling you how to
01:03:23
look at the world we should get rid of
01:03:24
income tax I'm sure everybody listening
01:03:26
like hm really convenient no income tax
01:03:29
for the billionaires and sent to
01:03:30
millionaires good job guys all right
01:03:32
let's keep going down
01:03:34
the all right jamat you know we've been
01:03:36
going back and forth in the group chat
01:03:38
and you've been talking about it
01:03:39
publicly maybe Main Street versus Wall
01:03:42
Street and what's going on in the
01:03:44
markets here because there's EU uh Bond
01:03:47
issues we obviously uh it seems like in
01:03:50
some ways maybe the Trump campaign is
01:03:53
not thinking about the stock market as
01:03:55
much as are thinking about the bond
01:03:57
market explain to us your take on
01:03:59
markets right
01:04:00
now yeah I think that there's three
01:04:02
markets that are important there's the
01:04:04
US long end of the curve so this is the
01:04:06
10year bond yield I think then there's
01:04:09
the US Equity market and then the most
01:04:13
next important Market are the
01:04:15
European Bond and Equity markets
01:04:18
together and I'll explain why in a
01:04:19
second but just on the first view I I
01:04:21
mentioned this before but I really do
01:04:23
think we're in a secular shift
01:04:26
where I think the Maga
01:04:29
majority and the base of people that can
01:04:32
be a reliable voting Block in the future
01:04:35
as I've said before are working in
01:04:38
Middle Class folks that don't
01:04:39
necessarily own a ton of stocks nor do
01:04:43
they own homes of which there's a lot
01:04:45
second cohort are people that are
01:04:49
pro-innovation and Protek and the third
01:04:51
are patriotic business owners I think
01:04:54
that cohort is very large and I think
01:04:57
that
01:04:59
when the core strategist inside of Maga
01:05:02
figure this out one of the big takeaways
01:05:05
is that they're not going to care about
01:05:07
the stock market in Wall Street and a
01:05:10
lot of the policies will be viewed
01:05:12
through the lens of Main Street and I
01:05:14
think that you started to see this
01:05:17
rhetoric now one from bessent and we'll
01:05:20
play this clip in a second and the
01:05:22
second was just today from Trump himself
01:05:24
but Nick do you want to play the best
01:05:25
clip if you have it I think o over the
01:05:28
the medium term which is what we're
01:05:30
focused on it's a focus on Main Street
01:05:33
wall Street's done Great Wall Street can
01:05:35
continue to do fine uh but we have a
01:05:39
focus on small business and the
01:05:41
consumers so we are going to rebalance
01:05:44
the economy we're going to bring
01:05:45
manufacturing jobs home that was the
01:05:48
first one the second one was just today
01:05:49
Nick I sent it to you do you want to
01:05:51
just show it to these guys which I think
01:05:52
is really interesting so it says here
01:05:54
breaking news from I guess on usual well
01:05:56
else Trump has just said he's not
01:05:58
looking at the stock market okay so not
01:06:00
sure I believe that but okay so why is
01:06:02
this actually valuable well if we are
01:06:06
incentivized if the government of
01:06:08
America is incentivized to implement
01:06:10
policies that crack the equity markets
01:06:14
it's actually really good in some ways
01:06:16
number one is if you deflate asset
01:06:18
prices you also deflate
01:06:21
inflation okay and give an example there
01:06:24
for the audience so we make it clear
01:06:26
Nvidia is ripping at all-time highs you
01:06:29
are like oh wow I'm so cashr you can go
01:06:31
get a margin loan you take that money
01:06:33
you reinvest it in a second home and a
01:06:35
third home you sell some stock you start
01:06:38
to buy cars all this other stuff it
01:06:40
drives consumptive behavior that on the
01:06:42
margin isn't there if the markets were
01:06:45
much much lower than this so if you
01:06:47
rebase the
01:06:49
equity values that people have what you
01:06:52
do is you actually depress the amount of
01:06:55
free cash flow that they have to spend
01:06:57
on other things so it's a deflationary
01:06:59
tactic how the bond market reacts to
01:07:02
that is if the stock market goes down is
01:07:04
you start to become a flight to Quality
01:07:06
right oh my gosh there's volatility in
01:07:08
the stock market oh my gosh I don't want
01:07:10
to deal with the stock market going down
01:07:12
let me just sell take some chips off the
01:07:14
table and buy 10e bonds when you buy the
01:07:17
bonds the interest rate goes down why is
01:07:20
that good for America we have1 trillion
01:07:22
dollar we need to go out and borrow in
01:07:24
the next 9 months
01:07:26
and so if we can pay 3% 3.8%
01:07:29
4% we save us ourselves trillions of
01:07:32
dollars versus if we had to pay four and
01:07:34
a half five five and a half% so that's
01:07:37
the second
01:07:38
thing and then the third thing is that
01:07:41
right now what we had this week because
01:07:43
of the Ukraine and zalinsky thing is
01:07:45
basically Trump say we are totally risk
01:07:47
off this war and I'm not going to debate
01:07:50
whether that's right or wrong but that's
01:07:52
what he said we're going to curil the
01:07:54
aid we're not even going to share
01:07:56
intelligence they're on their own what
01:07:58
did that Force what happened this week
01:08:01
was the Europeans had to basically
01:08:03
circle the wagons and they said okay
01:08:05
we're going to step up and what they
01:08:08
announced was a four-year plan to borrow
01:08:11
money to invest in
01:08:13
defense what they also did which was
01:08:15
really interesting is the UK
01:08:17
specifically said we're going to borrow
01:08:19
it in this clever little way this is
01:08:21
their interpretation so that it doesn't
01:08:23
actually count in the debt to GDP
01:08:25
calculations of my country so they're
01:08:27
start they're
01:08:28
starting but then so then how did the
01:08:30
bond market react to it Nick you can
01:08:32
show it they're like you know what guys
01:08:34
if you want to fight this war obviously
01:08:36
you're allowed to do whatever you want
01:08:38
but the cost that you're going to have
01:08:39
to pay is going to go up this has been
01:08:42
going up every day and you're at a point
01:08:46
now where this is severe fiscal pressure
01:08:51
on these governments I do not know how
01:08:53
they sustain their deficits and raise
01:08:56
more debt so all of this is happening
01:08:59
all at the same time I think Trump is
01:09:01
pro Main Street Equity markets basically
01:09:04
do not get bid the bond markets respond
01:09:06
positively yields go down good for
01:09:09
America they extract themselves from
01:09:11
spending programs like again it's more
01:09:15
than a spending program but I'll just
01:09:16
say it in this context narrowly Russia
01:09:18
Ukraine is a spending program that that
01:09:20
if you take off the table that balance
01:09:23
of responsibility goes to Europe and
01:09:25
then the markets are saying this is not
01:09:27
right we want this war to end and we're
01:09:28
going to make it more expensive for you
01:09:30
to litigate it if you put it all
01:09:32
together it's a really interesting
01:09:33
moment in the markets I haven't seen in
01:09:35
a very long time Joe do you think this
01:09:38
is the refinancing of our debt is the
01:09:42
end game here there's like maybe 10% of
01:09:44
people who seem to have fallen in that
01:09:46
camp when I queried on these four group
01:09:48
chats hey you know if we can depress
01:09:51
everything we lower consumption we break
01:09:53
inflation even more maybe people lose
01:09:55
their jobs you know less
01:09:58
consumption and rates go down we have to
01:10:00
cut rates three or four times put
01:10:02
pressure on the FED then we can maybe
01:10:06
refinance our debt which is coming up
01:10:08
some percentage of it what do you think
01:10:10
of that theory you know Jason jamaat has
01:10:12
a lot of interesting thoughts here and I
01:10:13
think it's I think it's a very smart
01:10:14
analysis I'm not fully aligned it is
01:10:16
true Bond markets hate war war is
01:10:18
expensive or is inflationary it's very
01:10:21
clear Europe is going through okay you
01:10:23
know war is more likely for us to spend
01:10:24
money that and that hurts them you know
01:10:26
in the US I think the number one thing
01:10:28
that Scott Besson and Trump would want
01:10:30
around this is is to fight for Main
01:10:32
Street like they said that that really
01:10:34
is you know the kind of populace energy
01:10:35
we have right now and so I think they
01:10:37
are focused on lower interest rates
01:10:38
lower interest rates you know I have
01:10:40
some someone who works with me uh their
01:10:41
spouse you know as a real estate agent
01:10:43
and that they're having a really tough
01:10:44
couple years because indust R spiked up
01:10:45
if you get IND rates down again there's
01:10:47
so many different places in America
01:10:48
where people start making money again
01:10:49
with with the title companies with the
01:10:51
Brokers with there's so many things that
01:10:53
happen right with that trickle down yeah
01:10:55
it's it's well it's not just trickle
01:10:56
down it's like this is the part of the
01:10:58
economy that that just really does start
01:11:00
to turn on and certain transactions can
01:11:01
happen again and and you're right it it
01:11:03
is cheaper debt that is that is
01:11:04
Advantage as well so I think
01:11:05
disinflation is very important and I
01:11:07
think we have to find some way to get
01:11:08
there chth may be right that it's worth
01:11:10
hitting assets to get to this inflation
01:11:12
that's something that the Scott could be
01:11:13
working on because of all the debt but
01:11:14
it is it is true the easiest it's the
01:11:16
easiest it's the easiest and we do and
01:11:19
we do need it for sure so and I
01:11:21
hopefully I think there's some other
01:11:21
more clever ways to get there but but
01:11:23
but I do like that you said there's some
01:11:25
more clever ways to get there obviously
01:11:27
we don't want to see 8 n 10%
01:11:29
unemployment that's another way to get
01:11:31
there and we don't want that because you
01:11:33
know Main Street equals jobs so what do
01:11:37
what is your other ways to get there
01:11:39
well the other ways to get there is
01:11:40
there's two there's really two right now
01:11:42
in our society that are very positive
01:11:43
one of them is a higher productivity
01:11:46
through AI I'm working on a ton of
01:11:47
things as are sure everyone else doing
01:11:49
that like we're doing construction for
01:11:50
much cheaper right now government can't
01:11:52
do that though right government can't be
01:11:53
involved in that that's up to us not to
01:11:55
SC I mean David's doing good work we can
01:11:56
make sure not to screw it up there's a
01:11:57
lot of people trying to screw it up so I
01:11:59
think David's job is very important
01:12:00
there to get Sam's not here please we
01:12:03
and then the and then the second thing
01:12:05
is actually cutting spend like just
01:12:07
giving out hundreds of billions
01:12:09
willy-nilly to Stacy Abrams at all is
01:12:11
very inflationary and so so so I think I
01:12:13
think cutting spend actually is a very
01:12:15
positive thing we could do a lot more of
01:12:16
that freeberg you heard the two
01:12:18
gentlemen what are your thoughts on the
01:12:21
refinancing of Interest as I've done
01:12:24
before I'm going to give you incredible
01:12:25
leadership credit for 3 years ago on
01:12:27
this pod pushing all of us to really
01:12:30
think about what would happen if the
01:12:31
debt increased another 8 trillion which
01:12:34
it did and I think that influenced a lot
01:12:36
of people in our circles and obviously
01:12:38
that's something that the president took
01:12:41
on when none of us thought he would any
01:12:43
president would ever take on that issue
01:12:46
how much pain do you think Trump is
01:12:49
willing to take with the stock market
01:12:50
going down in order to refin the debt
01:12:52
the debt is he willing to be incredibly
01:12:54
unpopular is he willing to deal with the
01:12:57
criticism from Wall Street and from
01:13:00
Equity holders over some sustained
01:13:02
period and how much would he be if it
01:13:03
goes down the market goes down 10 20% do
01:13:06
you think he's going to cry uncle or you
01:13:08
think he's willing to take that kind of
01:13:09
pain freeberg like I said I I don't know
01:13:11
about Trump there's a you know I would
01:13:13
say 6040 I'd be right 40% I'd be wrong
01:13:16
so I I don't know people are here for
01:13:18
that that's actually a pretty good ratio
01:13:19
in poker if you can win that many hint
01:13:21
yeah I mean I'd say 60% he's probably
01:13:23
different than Trump 1.0 and he's
01:13:26
probably less influenced by the
01:13:28
short-term Rumblings about the market
01:13:31
okay and he's probably listening to
01:13:33
bessent on this one
01:13:37
although you know I I I think it's it's
01:13:39
got to be a complicated relationship
01:13:41
between the two of them at the moment I
01:13:43
I do think that he is aware and I would
01:13:46
imagine the administration generally
01:13:48
with bessent and others in in um kind of
01:13:50
key leadership positions are trying to
01:13:53
make the case that if we can get
01:13:55
rates
01:13:57
down we have an opportunity to kind of
01:14:00
refinance this1 trillion that's coming
01:14:02
due in the next 12 months and get
01:14:05
ourselves into a kind of more
01:14:06
sustainable financing position there's
01:14:09
still the fiscal position which is how
01:14:11
are we spending money and how are we
01:14:12
spending money over time that needs to
01:14:14
be addressed this is this is the central
01:14:16
question you're totally right let's
01:14:18
address that specifically with Ukraine
01:14:21
you're a bit of uh a hawk an American
01:14:24
except jist Joe and
01:14:27
um we are looking at a situation where
01:14:30
we
01:14:31
spent 175 billion there were some other
01:14:34
numbers that Trump was floating around
01:14:35
that were
01:14:36
Incorrect and they got fact checked 175
01:14:39
billion is what we're actually in for
01:14:41
according to all accounts this was done
01:14:43
as I said many times on this very
01:14:45
program and got laughed at and joked
01:14:47
about done on a lease loan Trump because
01:14:51
these things were done on a lease loan
01:14:53
now has the upper hand with zinsky and
01:14:55
he's a great negotiator and he said we
01:14:57
want 500 billion back don't need to make
01:15:00
this about dollars and cents here
01:15:02
because obviously this is life and death
01:15:04
and people's democracy we're talking
01:15:06
about their sovereignty but that 175
01:15:09
billion if he gets that 500 billion back
01:15:12
that's a 42% irr in three years on this
01:15:15
even if we just got our money back that
01:15:17
would be fine for the American people
01:15:18
how do you look at the war in Ukraine
01:15:20
both financially and in terms of
01:15:23
containing Putin and
01:15:25
finally in terms of our participation in
01:15:28
NATO is it time for us to leave NATO Joe
01:15:30
lale wow well you know Jason Putin's a
01:15:32
bad guy that's number one he's shouldn't
01:15:35
have inv thank you for saying that it's
01:15:36
refreshing to hear it on this podcast
01:15:38
you know I I do think the last
01:15:39
Administration mismanaged it I don't
01:15:41
think he would have invaded with Trump
01:15:42
as president he certainly would have
01:15:44
invaded with competent person threaten
01:15:45
him so but you know but now we have to
01:15:47
have peace and I do want peace I don't
01:15:49
want to have the war continuing but to
01:15:50
get peace you got to get both sides to
01:15:52
come to the table I prefer peace through
01:15:54
strength prefer being really strong on
01:15:56
Putin and showing why he has to have
01:15:57
peace but then you need zilinski to be a
01:15:59
partner for it too and I do think listen
01:16:01
I do think zilinski had the wrong idea
01:16:03
on the White House last week he should
01:16:04
have been thanking them he should have
01:16:05
come more humbly he should have actually
01:16:07
been directed towards really wanting
01:16:09
peace and listen I I I agree that
01:16:11
Ukraine's a very corrupt country we may
01:16:12
find out that he and his cronies have
01:16:14
been taking a bunch of money I don't
01:16:15
know if they are or not either way he
01:16:17
has not really been signaling the right
01:16:19
way to be open to peace and a piece that
01:16:21
does I think have to give up a little
01:16:22
bit of Ukraine in order to get there I
01:16:23
think that's the option on the table
01:16:25
right now and that's the direction I
01:16:26
want about the NATO question what's the
01:16:28
you know and thank you for being so
01:16:29
candid here what's the the NATO outcome
01:16:33
here is it time for maybe Europe to just
01:16:37
go it alone because they don't seem to
01:16:39
like what happened last Friday at the
01:16:41
White House they yeah and and maybe do
01:16:43
you think it's time maybe that we we bow
01:16:45
out and let them arm up this is really
01:16:48
tough for me because some of the people
01:16:49
I care about most in the world uh live
01:16:51
in places like Germany and and around
01:16:53
there and I want them to be safe I also
01:16:55
think that the historic relationship
01:16:56
between the UK and the US is this very
01:16:58
very valuable thing that we have they
01:17:00
shouldn't just be tossed aside these are
01:17:01
these are critical very longtime allies
01:17:03
and cousins you know I think Europe's in
01:17:06
a very very bad place it's very
01:17:08
dysfunctional man it's it's it's I do
01:17:09
not see European civilization going the
01:17:11
right way the next 20 or 30 years I
01:17:13
think JD's right to criticize them on on
01:17:15
anti-free speech on like you know
01:17:16
arresting people who criticize the
01:17:18
Islamic threat like more than the people
01:17:20
actually doing the rapes and stuff it's
01:17:22
crazy these places have lost their minds
01:17:23
you know it's bonkers so yeah do do I
01:17:25
want to to totally give it up no but do
01:17:28
I want to demand fiercely that the
01:17:30
certain things get fixed and to use our
01:17:32
foreign policy apparatus to make sure we
01:17:34
fix those things if we're going to stay
01:17:35
in the relationship 100% what do you
01:17:38
think chamat this NATO question seems
01:17:40
like Europe is kind of signaling that
01:17:42
they're willing to go at alone and
01:17:44
should the United States just say okay
01:17:47
go for it we're we're out because that's
01:17:49
literally what sax retweeted recently
01:17:51
just said hey we're out it's your
01:17:52
problem um and I think the
01:17:54
administration has given him free reign
01:17:55
to to discuss the topic he T discussed
01:17:57
it here for many years what are your
01:17:59
thoughts should we be out on NATO well I
01:18:01
think the question is when do these
01:18:04
transnational organizations outlive
01:18:06
their utility that's the question on the
01:18:09
table and it's not just a question for
01:18:11
NATO but it's a question for a bunch of
01:18:13
these other things the
01:18:15
who NATO the United Nations there's many
01:18:18
of these
01:18:19
organizations what you've seen is that
01:18:22
there are
01:18:25
competitive organizations now that are
01:18:27
just as important if not more so if you
01:18:31
didn't like OPEC well then there was
01:18:33
this OPEC Plus+ thing if you didn't like
01:18:36
how the Europeans and the Americans did
01:18:39
intelligence gathering then all of a
01:18:41
sudden five eyes came out of nowhere if
01:18:43
you didn't like the G7 there's the
01:18:46
bricks right so there's this tendency
01:18:49
for the world to create these startups
01:18:53
to try to challenge incumbent
01:18:55
as the conditions on the ground change I
01:18:58
think the most important thing right now
01:19:00
the Europeans need to do is acknowledge
01:19:02
this one critical fact the individual
01:19:05
governments of Europe are vibrant and
01:19:07
Powerful the European Union itself was
01:19:11
created almost without any real teeth
01:19:14
and so what happened is the folks there
01:19:16
started to pass inordinate numbers of
01:19:18
laws yeah and that has made it really
01:19:20
complicated to be a European company a
01:19:22
European Citizen and that has to get
01:19:25
sorted out what is the real decision
01:19:27
there is it about being Italian is it
01:19:29
about being European what is the
01:19:31
separation and I don't think that that's
01:19:33
clear and I think once they figure that
01:19:35
out all this other stuff is much easier
01:19:36
to figure out well you also have yeah
01:19:39
other organizations interpo right we
01:19:41
have that you have the UN I mean it is
01:19:44
maybe time to just
01:19:46
reerrr BG what do you think I think that
01:19:50
there is a viable case for a peaceful
01:19:54
trans I to kind of a
01:19:59
multi-polar power
01:20:01
Dynamic and if you're a techn
01:20:06
pessimist you're going to have a point
01:20:08
of view that there are more limited
01:20:10
resources available to humans on Earth
01:20:12
and therefore we have to have influence
01:20:14
to access those resources if you're a
01:20:17
techno Optimist you will believe that
01:20:20
through Ai and Automation and all these
01:20:23
other Technologies that we could spend
01:20:25
quite a bit of time around that we are
01:20:28
going to have abundant housing abundant
01:20:31
fuel abundant materials and generally an
01:20:34
abundance of everything that one
01:20:36
particular group might demand or need
01:20:40
and you don't need to go be an Empire to
01:20:42
access the
01:20:43
resources that your people are demanding
01:20:46
and what I mean is the mining industry
01:20:49
is a good example there was this
01:20:50
discovery which I think we put on the
01:20:51
docket for the science Corner today of a
01:20:55
giant thorium Reserve in inner Mongolia
01:20:57
which can be used to make a thorium
01:20:58
molten salt reactor and there's enough
01:21:00
Thorium in this Reserve in China to
01:21:03
produce enough energy for 60,000 years
01:21:06
of consumption based on current
01:21:08
consumption
01:21:09
rates I saw a fantastic presentation
01:21:12
this week by a startup that's uh using
01:21:15
Ai and other sensing Technologies to
01:21:19
identify new Rare Earth deposits in the
01:21:22
crust of the earth that we have
01:21:24
absolutely no visibility into today and
01:21:26
many of our assumptions about how much
01:21:29
availability there is of certain rare
01:21:31
earth metals is wrong and that there
01:21:34
actually may be many many many orders of
01:21:35
magnitude more material available to us
01:21:37
to mine and the technology for mining is
01:21:40
getting better the technology for
01:21:41
discovering these deposits is improving
01:21:42
and so on so in that world where
01:21:44
suddenly I can make all the food I want
01:21:46
everyone can be fed there's plenty of
01:21:48
land there's plenty of housing there's
01:21:49
plenty of water there's automation that
01:21:51
and robots that are serving me and all
01:21:53
this sort of amazing
01:21:55
that's coming cury do I really need to
01:21:57
be having aing conflict with Russia and
01:22:00
China over access to some jungle or some
01:22:03
plot of land on the other side of the
01:22:05
planet or can I live sustainably on in
01:22:09
my country and everyone's going to be
01:22:11
generally happy so I think that this
01:22:13
idea that maybe the US exits NATO and
01:22:16
the US dials down its level of conflict
01:22:19
and opposition to Russia and or China is
01:22:23
a pretty reasonable and I would argue
01:22:24
maybe even a techno optimistic point of
01:22:26
view and you know we may find that in
01:22:29
the next couple of years we start to
01:22:31
really believe it and if we start to
01:22:33
believe it all the things that we're
01:22:35
fighting over today you don't really
01:22:37
need to fight over anymore except for
01:22:40
the expansionist intentions of
01:22:42
individuals which is a sociological
01:22:44
phenomenon which may still continue but
01:22:47
I'm not sure that you need to be
01:22:49
investing as much resources as we have
01:22:50
historically so I would argue maybe nato
01:22:53
in a mult poar world of abundance isn't
01:22:56
as necessary as it has been in the past
01:22:58
Century which was a world that was
01:23:00
limited in resources fighting for Access
01:23:02
and a growing global population
01:23:04
particularly in the developed world in
01:23:05
the west that's made it a necessity to
01:23:08
maintain us Primacy and US policing of
01:23:11
the world and I know others might have a
01:23:12
point of view that's a little bit
01:23:13
different on that but I just think we
01:23:15
this is I think actually what you're
01:23:17
talking about is a Star Trek beautiful
01:23:19
version of abundance in the world if
01:23:21
these Rare Earth minerals create
01:23:23
unlimited energy and your energy
01:23:24
independent you look at the world
01:23:25
differently and and Joe we certainly in
01:23:28
America look at the world differently as
01:23:30
we're all gen xers here
01:23:32
basically we look at the world much
01:23:33
differently now since we have energy
01:23:35
Independence than we did under Bush and
01:23:38
and these uh F Wars you know in the
01:23:42
Middle East yeah I mean listen yeah and
01:23:44
I I'm I'm one of the most optimistic
01:23:45
people I call myself the American
01:23:47
Optimist Jason as you know have
01:23:49
greatone of us have been on yet app of
01:23:53
get you on the we live together I mean
01:23:55
had sacks on have you had sacks on at
01:23:57
least American Optimist people people
01:23:58
are too busy to come on I'll try to get
01:24:00
you so for four with best's got it okay
01:24:02
all right I gotta work on it listen I I
01:24:04
would love AI to get to the point I
01:24:06
think it will where it starts to
01:24:07
accelerate growth where this energy
01:24:09
stuff could be mind more easily but
01:24:10
until I'd say until we're at at least
01:24:12
five six% growth because we are going to
01:24:14
the postcar city world we don't know
01:24:15
what it's coming I do still think global
01:24:17
trade really matters I do think Global
01:24:19
Security for ourselves like we don't
01:24:21
want random people with nuclear
01:24:22
proliferation so there there are issues
01:24:24
that are going to affect all of us but I
01:24:26
think Dave makes a really great point
01:24:27
that it is becoming less important over
01:24:29
time it's true let's talk about this
01:24:31
chat GPT I guess they came out with 4.5
01:24:34
it was such a dud I didn't even realize
01:24:36
that they launched it chiman you monitor
01:24:39
this or freeberg did you try it because
01:24:40
I've been using grock as my default now
01:24:44
then Gemini then chat GPT that's my
01:24:46
order right now because I wanted to see
01:24:48
how good grock is and man grock is
01:24:51
really caught up and I don't have an
01:24:52
interest here in uh you know I don't
01:24:55
have equity in any of these comp well I
01:24:56
own Google in the public markets but I
01:24:58
don't own the other two but pretty
01:25:00
amazing yeah what what do you think of
01:25:02
this 4.5 dud and what what it means
01:25:05
chamal well I use them in in the
01:25:08
companyb building context and
01:25:10
specifically at 8090 because of what
01:25:12
we're building and what I would tell you
01:25:14
is that I think
01:25:16
anthropic just continues to do an
01:25:18
incredible job I think Claud
01:25:22
37 is it just kicks
01:25:25
ass oh you're you're on Claud for you're
01:25:28
using on the back end yeah we use it for
01:25:30
a lot of automated code generation got
01:25:32
it and its models on code generation I
01:25:35
think are just exceptional it they're
01:25:37
they are the best in market then what I
01:25:39
would say is as a
01:25:40
consumer I've mostly flipped my usage to
01:25:43
Gro 3 yeah and the reason is that it's
01:25:46
in line with where I consume most of my
01:25:48
information it's elegantly
01:25:51
integrated inside of X it's point this
01:25:54
out to explain it to people when you're
01:25:56
in Twitter now X on the top right hand
01:25:59
of a tweet there's an xai button when
01:26:01
you click it it just gives you the full
01:26:02
context of the Tweet so I was reading
01:26:04
one of dar's from Uber's tweets about
01:26:08
autonomy I guess they added two more
01:26:09
Partners when I clicked it it gave me
01:26:11
more than I ever could want it was
01:26:12
almost like a deep research of the
01:26:14
context of a very short retweet he did
01:26:16
and I didn't have to cut and paste and
01:26:18
form a question so owning a social
01:26:21
network equals instant and here we're
01:26:23
going to show with Joe lonsdale's where
01:26:25
he says Hey listen the you know the the
01:26:27
crypto tax feels like taxation to me and
01:26:29
look it goes and finds four web pages
01:26:31
you can see there it tells you which
01:26:33
ones Wikipedia and um CNBC amongst them
01:26:37
and then it gives Joe's position this is
01:26:39
like very elegant this is super elegant
01:26:43
and I think there's a small tweak to
01:26:45
this okay that Elon and I were talking
01:26:49
about actually onx which is then just
01:26:50
the nature of being able to analyze it
01:26:52
post for its veracity becomes really
01:26:54
valuable that extra little thing when
01:26:56
it's available I think will have a
01:26:58
really big impact on how people use it
01:27:00
in this context so I use gr for the
01:27:02
consumer applications for all of our
01:27:05
code generation we're using Sonet 37
01:27:07
it's
01:27:08
exceptional which is anthropics which is
01:27:11
doing a major round of funding got it
01:27:12
okay yeah and and I think like the the
01:27:14
thing with the GPT 45 is that it's kind
01:27:18
of like good now here's here's a tangent
01:27:20
let me just do a small little rant which
01:27:22
is
01:27:24
we're at the bleeding edge of where
01:27:26
these benchmarks are useful meaning part
01:27:29
of why Jason maybe you weren't
01:27:30
necessarily watching this as closely and
01:27:32
I think where the media and the
01:27:35
sensemaking organizations get confused
01:27:37
is they don't know now what to say
01:27:39
because they'll say hey look at how I
01:27:41
did on sbench look at how I did on IMO
01:27:43
look at how I did on
01:27:45
Amy and the problem the Dirty Little
01:27:47
Secret of these model makers is that
01:27:50
these guys are so trained on the evals
01:27:52
that they're overfitting yeah and all
01:27:55
this overfitting basically makes it
01:27:56
pretty
01:27:57
unreliable what this means to translate
01:27:59
into plain English for humans listening
01:28:01
is they basically are optimizing for the
01:28:04
test that are The Benchmark which is
01:28:06
kind of like a person in high school or
01:28:08
you know optimizing for the SATs it
01:28:10
doesn't mean they're going to be a great
01:28:11
student but it may mean that they just
01:28:12
spent a lot of time taking sat tests
01:28:14
yeah so we have we have one problem
01:28:16
which is that I think it would be very
01:28:18
valuable for the industry that it be
01:28:19
solved which is that we need to have
01:28:22
extremely difficult and always changing
01:28:25
third party independent verifiable
01:28:27
benchmarks oh that's a great idea like
01:28:29
the safety test for cars is that's not
01:28:32
run by the companies got it less about
01:28:34
safety though more about capability sure
01:28:36
and I think if we're reporting on that
01:28:38
then these leaps will mean something
01:28:39
more than what they are today right so
01:28:41
got it when Alibaba pushes Gwen this
01:28:44
week it was an exceptional model it's
01:28:47
probably one of the better open source
01:28:48
if not the best open source model out
01:28:50
there deep seeks I think is also quite
01:28:52
good it doesn't get any pressing anymore
01:28:54
so I think we're starting to get to this
01:28:56
place where there's such abundance that
01:28:59
actually people are just kind of like
01:29:00
overwhelmed with all the choice and they
01:29:02
don't know how to differentiate this is
01:29:04
like a 100 Michelin star restaurants
01:29:06
opening up in your city you just don't
01:29:07
have enough meals to eat it we we're
01:29:09
we're basically drowning in abundance to
01:29:12
free Berg's point we I don't think we
01:29:14
understand exactly how golden how golden
01:29:17
this golden age is in terms distribtion
01:29:19
distribution becomes really important I
01:29:21
think that's why absolutely inside
01:29:24
valuable but also think Google just that
01:29:26
they're going to drop an button into the
01:29:29
front search page I don't know if you
01:29:31
guys saw that but no Google's doing it
01:29:32
when you're logged in you will get the
01:29:34
snippet at the top inside of YouTube
01:29:37
they're doing summaries of the chat and
01:29:39
the comments and then you think about
01:29:41
what meta could do you know they already
01:29:43
put the AI box up there but you know
01:29:45
they'll they'll knock some of that
01:29:46
off Google front door like google.com
01:29:49
does anyone use that
01:29:51
anymore well I mean Google searches are
01:29:53
still going and Facebook is about to
01:29:55
launch a competitor to chat and gr yeah
01:29:58
well they're going to do a straight up a
01:30:00
standalone app and the thing that they
01:30:02
are so good at is whenever they launch
01:30:04
an app it doesn't matter when they
01:30:05
launch it they'll just get it to a
01:30:06
billion people yeah I mean that that is
01:30:09
uh super TR all this I think leads
01:30:12
to so much abundance what I'm I'm seeing
01:30:15
in startups I was the first investor in
01:30:17
a company called superum very elegant
01:30:20
software luxury software for email
01:30:22
productivity give it a shot
01:30:24
what he did
01:30:26
was I didn't mean that's a super plug
01:30:28
here but anyway I I'm so in love with
01:30:30
the company and the founder I I just had
01:30:32
them on this weekend startups he's like
01:30:33
one of the best product Minds I've ever
01:30:35
met extraordinary and superum now
01:30:39
because it's gotten so cheap to do AI
01:30:41
that they are composing in this beta I
01:30:43
in all of the replies to your email in
01:30:46
real time on the back end and you can
01:30:48
see potential drafts they summarize
01:30:50
everything even if you never read the
01:30:51
summary that would be cost prohibitive
01:30:54
six to 12 months ago but now it's a
01:30:57
no-brainer and because they're paid
01:30:58
software it's like so this is going to
01:31:00
get very interesting very quick Joe your
01:31:03
thoughts on this uh abundance yeah I'm
01:31:05
actually building something on email
01:31:06
like you said that let works with your
01:31:07
team to automatically kind of like you
01:31:09
know create reports on everything that
01:31:11
comes in and rout it for you because a
01:31:12
lot of our friends when you're a CEO you
01:31:14
basically become a traffic cop it's
01:31:16
actually the email is gonna do it for
01:31:17
you it's gonna be that'd be really nice
01:31:19
but listen I'm invested in grock 3 and
01:31:20
I'm biased towards Elon but you know a
01:31:23
lot of our companies will build on top
01:31:24
of multiple of them as well and you I
01:31:26
think you're talking about Coen I'm you
01:31:28
know in cognition I a lot of my
01:31:30
companies using Devon it's actually just
01:31:31
like crushing it this stuff's getting
01:31:32
like 10 15% better every month it's uh
01:31:35
it's really amazing and it's good for
01:31:36
companies like that I'm mostly that
01:31:38
level where I'm like using all of them
01:31:39
or using a bunch of them that so I love
01:31:41
the fact there's all this competition
01:31:42
because just makes it cheaper and better
01:31:43
for me for all my companies I'm building
01:31:45
and and it's it's not slowing down is
01:31:47
the other piece of this no it's getting
01:31:49
better it's scary actually I thought it
01:31:50
would I thought it would ASM toote and
01:31:51
it hasn't so amazing no that's that's
01:31:53
the part that's so fascinating to me and
01:31:56
then there's a really interesting Ripple
01:31:58
that I don't know if you guys are aware
01:32:00
of yet but journalists who have been
01:32:02
losing their jobs at a tremendous Pace
01:32:04
are now being hired by data aggregators
01:32:07
to come in look at queries let's say you
01:32:10
had an expertise in agriculture free
01:32:12
birg they'll pay you and I actually saw
01:32:13
one of these job descriptions 40 bucks
01:32:15
an hour to sit there and answer
01:32:17
questions about agriculture look at
01:32:19
answers and refine them and do
01:32:20
reinforcement learning we're going to
01:32:22
have a new job class which is people who
01:32:25
train AIS and people who fact check AIS
01:32:28
and refine AIS and this could be a 50 to
01:32:32
$150,000 a year job because every time
01:32:34
you make the AI a little better
01:32:36
everybody on the planet gets to benefit
01:32:39
from it this is an extraordinary new job
01:32:41
career I don't know what it's going to
01:32:42
be called reinforcement learner I don't
01:32:44
know freeberg you get the last take here
01:32:47
great job on the abundance angle which
01:32:50
just pushed a really great discussion
01:32:51
here wrap us up with your thoughts on
01:32:53
these llms and the pace of AI I just
01:32:56
agree with chamat I think it's like you
01:32:58
got a lot of great stuff here it's
01:32:59
changing every week I'm not paying
01:33:01
attention to the details anymore new
01:33:03
models come out every week this is like
01:33:05
when the internet launched new websites
01:33:07
you know like this is this is carrying
01:33:09
us forward it's impossible to dissect
01:33:11
and predict what's going to win when and
01:33:15
why right now what are you um obsessed
01:33:17
with in the AI front is there are there
01:33:19
things out I use I use chat GPT research
01:33:22
a lot the Deep research Arch right where
01:33:24
fires off a bunch of web pages okay and
01:33:26
you're paying that means the 200 bucks a
01:33:27
month or you I pay 200 a month yeah I
01:33:30
find I find it very good yeah and then
01:33:32
um we build everything at oh Hollow on
01:33:34
gcp and we run a bunch of different
01:33:36
models that's Google's Cloud for people
01:33:38
who don't know thatr name got it and
01:33:39
then we run models they're incredible
01:33:42
yeah yeah lots of different tools but
01:33:44
it's awesome hey as we wrap here we're
01:33:47
following our Muse here at Allin
01:33:49
whatever the besties are most interested
01:33:50
in we are going to bring you the
01:33:52
audience along with us so freeberg and I
01:33:54
have been obsessed with content creation
01:33:57
and media so we're doing a little media
01:33:59
Summit at South by Southwest apologies
01:34:03
that it's sold out and then chth you
01:34:05
know he likes this F1 he's a big F1 fan
01:34:07
I've never been I'm really excited that
01:34:09
we're going to be throwing the best
01:34:11
party at F1 Saturday May 4th I'm
01:34:16
cominging the bag you're not there's
01:34:18
only room for as long as I get the bag
01:34:20
I'll be outside you know what I'll just
01:34:21
go to 11 give me my bag I'll go play a
01:34:24
tournament I'll go to 11 and have a
01:34:26
steak and that's it's a it's a it's a
01:34:28
club I'll get I'll pop some bottles at
01:34:29
11 while you guys are at F1 you can
01:34:31
Photoshop me in but the fans can come
01:34:34
and our community can come allin.com
01:34:37
events for all the details and if you
01:34:40
party on Saturday night big party it's
01:34:41
gonna be fun we're throwing a big party
01:34:43
in Miami around F1 and we're gonna do a
01:34:45
little stage show beforehand because be
01:34:47
awesome and we're gonna we're gonna
01:34:49
celebrate my birthday because I'm not
01:34:51
going to be able to make it in June can
01:34:52
I wear my app Apple watch can somebody
01:34:54
loan me a nice watch for F1 I can't show
01:34:56
up with an Apple Watch anybody got a
01:34:57
you're not allowed to wear an Apple
01:34:58
Watch to F1 okay I'm going to put my
01:35:00
Apple watch in my in my draw never watch
01:35:04
I want a watch that cost 25 to 75k
01:35:07
what's a good starter watch for J Cal
01:35:09
that's like an appetizer that's what my
01:35:10
watch has as a watch your watch is watch
01:35:14
Joe you got you into this watch thing
01:35:15
what should I buy for 100 dimes what do
01:35:18
you got there you can get a decent PCH
01:35:19
for 100 now it's like they've gone down
01:35:21
yeah it's yeah I mean everything's
01:35:23
collapsed like shouldn't I be able to
01:35:24
snipe something here it's it's deflation
01:35:26
thanks to Trump and AI right you can
01:35:29
grab whatever somebody give me a
01:35:31
suggestion
01:35:32
for get a good mechanical watch not an
01:35:35
automatic a mechanical anybody wants to
01:35:36
sponsor me for watches and get a mention
01:35:39
here on the show I will gri the hell out
01:35:41
of that Jason cicis.com for life I just
01:35:44
got a text from Swatch and tutor oh
01:35:47
Swatch was I used to wear actually in
01:35:49
the 80s I don't know if freeberg
01:35:52
definitely had a T of those Casio
01:35:54
watches right did you have the Casio
01:35:56
where you would uh do your your C is a
01:36:00
great watch that's I'm talking about him
01:36:01
with the calculator watch I had that it
01:36:04
was I remember it was $50 it was a
01:36:06
really big deal to it $50 and it was
01:36:08
worth it you play the game you start and
01:36:10
stop it as fast as you could that was
01:36:11
that was exactly remember that I had one
01:36:14
on
01:36:15
each I was doubling
01:36:17
down I recently bought a G-Shock on
01:36:20
Amazon as kind of like a momento to
01:36:24
and my freaking daughter stole the
01:36:27
g a free we can all bet on this what
01:36:30
calculator do you have on your desk
01:36:32
right now how many how many calculators
01:36:34
are on your desk now how many Can You
01:36:35
Reach how many casos are within reach
01:36:37
there's only one calculator that matters
01:36:39
only one for me yeah okay HP 17b there's
01:36:43
only
01:36:43
one what are you talking about I got my
01:36:45
T9 still 89 for me oh now you just told
01:36:48
me how how you're younger than me Joe
01:36:50
now I know you're like four years
01:36:51
younger than me true point of
01:36:54
it was the
01:36:55
8182 transition that was like a big deal
01:36:58
yeah you know what I was doing when you
01:36:59
guys were on your calculator I can't
01:37:00
even imagine I was in McKinley Park in
01:37:02
Bay Ridge getting to second base all
01:37:04
right enough allin.com events did the
01:37:07
guy
01:37:08
consent absolutely absolutely he's a
01:37:11
really hot dude please we we have two
01:37:13
genders folks there's an executive order
01:37:15
I read it all right all right my trump
01:37:18
grade for the week is c for chaos a for
01:37:22
effort with uh a for effort with those
01:37:24
let's try to get back to a b president
01:37:26
Trump we'll see you all next time on the
01:37:28
Allin P love you boys thanks Jo thanks
01:37:31
guys that's fun byebye all right
01:37:33
everybody we're suited up we're suited
01:37:35
up because the Zar The Wolf of the White
01:37:38
House is here my brother David Sachs we
01:37:42
were trying to get you on the program
01:37:43
you were going to make a drop in to talk
01:37:44
about all this great crypto news coming
01:37:46
out of the White House and uh let's face
01:37:49
it this was a um some people saying
01:37:51
chaotic some people say intense this is
01:37:53
a pretty amazing intense week for the
01:37:56
administration so we'll get into a
01:37:57
little bit of that but you're here
01:37:59
specifically to talk about the crypto
01:38:02
Reserve so welcome back to your program
01:38:05
the Allin podcast David sax good to be
01:38:08
back I see that you suited up here yeah
01:38:10
I mean I figured for people who uh
01:38:13
weren't here for the pre-show I get on
01:38:15
saak is wearing a white shirt and a tie
01:38:17
I'm wearing a Blazer and a white shirt
01:38:19
so I'm like ah I got to go put a tie on
01:38:21
he's like ah J C wear a blazer I got to
01:38:22
go get a blazer so then we came back and
01:38:24
here we are and uh right well look I I
01:38:26
just have to correct one thing I think
01:38:27
it's been a very smooth week at the
01:38:29
White House the president has lived up
01:38:32
to one of his campaign promises this is
01:38:33
not something new remember you go all
01:38:36
the way back to his National speech
01:38:37
during the campaign and he re reiterated
01:38:39
this many times that he wanted to create
01:38:41
a strategic Bitcoin Reserve sometimes he
01:38:43
called it a digital asset stockpile what
01:38:45
we've ultimately done here is both he
01:38:48
also in his week one EO on crypto you
01:38:50
guys remember I came on the show to talk
01:38:52
about that he asked our president's
01:38:54
working group on digital asset to
01:38:55
evaluate the idea of a reserve or
01:38:58
stockpile and we made a recommendation
01:39:00
and this Administration is moving at
01:39:02
Tech speed it's really great to work for
01:39:05
an Administration where you can actually
01:39:06
get things done and things move quickly
01:39:08
we made our recommendation and then we
01:39:10
work with the lawyers to implement it
01:39:11
and President signed it last night but
01:39:14
this is fully consistent with everything
01:39:15
he's he's always said agree on that the
01:39:18
uh I guess the one criticism that you're
01:39:20
going to get when you go face the media
01:39:21
so I might want to put it here is the
01:39:23
order in which you're doing things
01:39:24
sometimes Mr Trump is very uh expressive
01:39:27
on the social medias which is better
01:39:29
than let's say the previous
01:39:30
administration which just wasn't
01:39:32
available and and incognitive decline so
01:39:35
I guess the the the question of he
01:39:37
announces something and then you guys
01:39:40
explain it deeper is that the optimal
01:39:41
way to do this should we not worry about
01:39:44
it should you come out with like more
01:39:46
official stuff I guess that's the move
01:39:48
fast break things that we are used to in
01:39:51
Silicon Valley but that people you know
01:39:53
know whether it's in business or maybe a
01:39:55
little concerned about that things are
01:39:57
maybe different now in the White House
01:40:01
and and in how we're running our
01:40:02
government maybe you could expand on
01:40:03
that have you ever considered that maybe
01:40:05
you just had an overreaction to a tweet
01:40:07
well okay so if we're going to place the
01:40:09
blame on
01:40:11
me I wasn't the only one the original
01:40:14
crypto ogs were like wait a second why
01:40:15
is he picking these three and not these
01:40:17
three you know so that made a lot of
01:40:20
people putting myself out of it like
01:40:21
whoa what's going on here is he picking
01:40:23
favorites and that's I guess everybody's
01:40:25
big concern so maybe you could a sage
01:40:27
we're not yeah we're not picking
01:40:28
favorites obviously except I will say
01:40:30
this we do think Bitcoin is special and
01:40:32
I can get it to to the reasons why expl
01:40:34
why that's a great thing yeah well I
01:40:36
mean bitcoin's the original
01:40:37
cryptocurrency it's the first one it's
01:40:40
the only one that doesn't have an issuer
01:40:42
right it's it's very decentralized it's
01:40:44
you know in crypto they call this the
01:40:45
Immaculate Conception we don't really
01:40:46
know how it got here we don't know who
01:40:48
Satoshi is it's almost mystical you
01:40:51
would say yes it's the most valuable it
01:40:53
has a $2 trillion market cap and it's
01:40:55
the most secure it's ever been hacked
01:40:56
right so we're now you know over 15
01:40:58
years into this journey and there's been
01:41:00
a lot of people who've been skeptical
01:41:01
along the way and there's been a lot of
01:41:02
ups and downs but here it is I mean I
01:41:05
remember back in 2011 I think it's the
01:41:07
first time I bought a Bitcoin I think it
01:41:09
was at $120 now it's at
01:41:12
$90,000 again there have been all sorts
01:41:14
of wild swings along the way but this
01:41:18
thing just keeps keeps chugging along
01:41:20
and you can think of that $2 trillion
01:41:23
Market market cap is like a $2 trillion
01:41:25
bug Bounty if there was a way to hack
01:41:27
this there's every incentive in the
01:41:29
world and by hack I mean like to double
01:41:31
spend create basically a counterfeit
01:41:33
Bitcoin I guess would be the way for
01:41:34
people to think about it and so the
01:41:36
miracle it hasn't been compromised I
01:41:38
think we can all say that well I don't
01:41:39
know if it's a miracle I think it's
01:41:41
exceptional design sure you know and so
01:41:43
I think I think what you could say is
01:41:45
that it's been tested in a very robust
01:41:47
way and there's been every incentive to
01:41:48
basically break the encryption and it
01:41:51
continues to chug along and so I think
01:41:53
think the price has gone up as the
01:41:55
protocol has gotten more acceptance and
01:41:57
this is another point is that bitcoin's
01:41:59
most widely accepted as a store of value
01:42:02
throughout the world yeah so we do
01:42:04
believe it should be treated special now
01:42:06
that being said we're also creating the
01:42:08
digital asset stockpile so all the other
01:42:10
explain the difference between these two
01:42:12
so there's a digital asset stockpile
01:42:15
that's the Picker and then on the other
01:42:17
side there's a strategic reserve for
01:42:19
Bitcoin because we do acquire Bitcoin we
01:42:22
the United States of America when we
01:42:24
seize from terrorists you know criminals
01:42:27
Etc we do seize these and then we often
01:42:29
make the mistake of liquidating them
01:42:31
when maybe we should be holding them
01:42:32
yeah so explain that architecture so we
01:42:34
have the reserve and we have the
01:42:34
stockpile so the reserve is just Bitcoin
01:42:37
the goal is long-term preservation think
01:42:39
of it as like a digital Fort Knox for
01:42:40
digital gold we want to put the digital
01:42:43
gold in there we want to keep it secure
01:42:45
we never want to sell it that's the goal
01:42:46
of the reserve and you're right that
01:42:48
we've made the mistake in the past of
01:42:50
selling this stuff at one point in time
01:42:51
we had about 400,000 Bitcoin on the
01:42:53
federal balance sheet we sold roughly
01:42:55
half of that for something like $360
01:42:58
million total if we had held all of that
01:43:01
it would be worth just that the portion
01:43:02
we sold would be worth over 17 billion
01:43:04
so we made this mistake of prematurely
01:43:06
selling Bitcoin when we should have held
01:43:08
it we don't want to make that mistake
01:43:10
with regard to the rest of it we think
01:43:12
there's around 200,000 coins left on the
01:43:16
federal balance sheet but the truth is
01:43:18
that nobody knows because we've never
01:43:19
done a proper audit so part of what this
01:43:21
executive order provides is that we're
01:43:22
going to going to do for the first time
01:43:24
a government wide accounting of the
01:43:27
digital assets that we actually have so
01:43:29
and if digital assets emerge in some
01:43:32
Department I don't know the FBI sees a
01:43:33
some the CIA sees a some I don't know
01:43:35
which organization winds up having them
01:43:38
they're going to be legally required to
01:43:40
report that and then put in the reserve
01:43:43
well they'll they'll be legally required
01:43:45
to report it and then they'll go in the
01:43:46
reserve if there's a final adjudication
01:43:48
so you know obviously if those coins
01:43:50
could go back as restitution to victims
01:43:53
or if the person who they were seized
01:43:56
from wins their court case and gets them
01:43:58
back they're not going to go into the
01:44:00
Federal Reserve but if there's been a
01:44:02
final adjudication and a final
01:44:03
forfeiture yes those will go into the
01:44:05
reserve anyway that's Bitcoin okay so
01:44:07
then you got the stockpile let me just
01:44:09
talk about that so first of all like I
01:44:10
said we don't know exactly what digital
01:44:13
assets the federal government has I've
01:44:15
seen reports that it might have for
01:44:17
example 50,000 eth which is ethereum but
01:44:21
again we need to get to the bottom of
01:44:22
that we figure out exactly what the
01:44:24
assets are we're going to move them into
01:44:26
the digital stockpile the purpose of the
01:44:28
stockpile is responsible stewardship
01:44:30
it's a place for safekeeping it's a
01:44:33
centralized you could say account under
01:44:36
the direction of the Secretary of the
01:44:37
Treasury and the Secretary of the
01:44:39
Treasury will figure out how to maximize
01:44:41
the values of these Holdings now there's
01:44:43
a couple of important differences
01:44:44
between stockpile and Reserve so one is
01:44:47
the reserve the executive order actually
01:44:49
provides that the Secretary of the
01:44:50
Treasury will not sell the Bitcoin okay
01:44:54
we're we're prohibited from selling the
01:44:56
Bitcoin there's no such prohibition with
01:44:59
respect to the stock pilot if the secet
01:45:00
treasury decides that's in the long-term
01:45:03
interest of the US to rebalance the
01:45:04
portfolio or change the portfolio the
01:45:07
secretary has the discretion to do that
01:45:08
okay which makes sense because there's a
01:45:10
longtail of crypto we might see
01:45:12
something that we don't have the ability
01:45:13
to predict the predict the future and we
01:45:15
don't have the staff to sit there and
01:45:17
look at these assets every day like a
01:45:19
fund manager would and say huh what do
01:45:20
we do with these what percentage should
01:45:22
it be of the overall stock pot of the
01:45:23
overall Holdings so maybe the decision
01:45:26
with ethereum is hey this thing's waning
01:45:27
we just put it into Bitcoin because we
01:45:29
know that's the more solid one yeah
01:45:30
that's what I'm reading into it yeah I
01:45:32
mean I think that that's that's largely
01:45:33
fair I mean look I think that the
01:45:35
stockpile should be subject to good
01:45:37
portfolio management right unfortunately
01:45:40
we have a Secretary of the Treasury who
01:45:42
is an extremely successful former hedge
01:45:44
fund manager so he's going to figure out
01:45:46
the best way to manage these assets and
01:45:48
we give him the flexibility to do
01:45:50
portfolio management whereas live and
01:45:52
die with what he does he has to make
01:45:54
those decisions and and that's going to
01:45:55
be you know um part of how he's
01:45:57
evaluated by the president so hopefully
01:45:59
he's going to be sharp about that right
01:46:00
but the reserve is different right the
01:46:02
reserve is just digital for KNX now
01:46:04
there's one other important difference
01:46:05
between stockpile and Reserve so with
01:46:08
respect to to reserve the the EO
01:46:10
provides that the secretaries and I'm
01:46:12
talking about Treasury and commerce
01:46:14
they're allowed to figure out strategies
01:46:16
to accumulate more Bitcoin for the
01:46:18
reserve if those strategies are budget
01:46:20
neutral and don't cost the taxpayer
01:46:22
anything okay so it's possible that we
01:46:24
could I'm not saying that we will but it
01:46:27
gives them it authorizes them to acquire
01:46:29
more Bitcoin if they can figure out a
01:46:31
way to do it that doesn't impact the
01:46:35
federal budget or the deficit or
01:46:37
taxpayers right okay well I had a very
01:46:40
simple suggestion for this which I'll uh
01:46:42
float up the flag poll here and see what
01:46:44
you think you probably we've talked
01:46:45
about it on previous allins before you
01:46:47
on it how about a simple crypto tax you
01:46:50
know crypto wants to be legal you're the
01:46:51
crypto are
01:46:53
crypto wants to be regulated they want
01:46:55
the rules they want the rails simple
01:46:58
suggestion from your bestie why don't we
01:47:00
charge every transaction in the United
01:47:02
States 0.01% just about one bit in that
01:47:05
native currency so you want to trade
01:47:06
some salana for ethereum for xrp
01:47:08
whatever you know put in whatever names
01:47:10
you want there the government says hey
01:47:13
you want to have a a great vibrant
01:47:15
system here we're going to need to take
01:47:17
just the most modest of taxes di Minimus
01:47:20
in fact in the native crypto and put it
01:47:23
in the stockpile this seems to me like a
01:47:25
very that's always how tax's start is
01:47:28
that they're very they're described as
01:47:29
being very modest you know when the
01:47:30
income tax started it only applied to
01:47:32
like a thousand Americans and the
01:47:34
legislators swore up and down that it
01:47:36
would never be applied to middle class
01:47:38
people so I don't particularly like the
01:47:40
idea of new taxes even if it's it's
01:47:42
promised that they just won't affect
01:47:44
people very much that sounds burdensome
01:47:46
to me but look we have very successful
01:47:48
this would and just so you know this is
01:47:50
would be like more like a sales tax that
01:47:51
would be handled by coinbase base would
01:47:53
be handled by Robin Hood by would be
01:47:54
handled by those platforms they would
01:47:56
administer it it would be a
01:47:58
transactional tax not an income tax so
01:48:00
if you have a bunch it's not a wealth
01:48:01
tax it's not a seasoning tax but I'll
01:48:02
let you on it if you can convince if you
01:48:05
can convince the secretary of the
01:48:07
Commerce or the Secretary of Treasury to
01:48:09
run with your idea then it could
01:48:12
potentially happen I mean they have the
01:48:13
flexibility to figure out budget neutral
01:48:15
ways to accumulate Bitcoin I don't know
01:48:17
what those ways are going to be but
01:48:18
they're creative they're very successful
01:48:20
businessmen and if they figure out a way
01:48:22
to do this then it can be considered
01:48:24
that's the point okay well I'll be in
01:48:26
the commissary later having lunch with
01:48:27
you you can introduce me um so let you
01:48:29
let me just give you a fastball here
01:48:31
well we'll see if it if it gets in the
01:48:32
strike zone the appearance of
01:48:35
impropriety is what people are concerned
01:48:37
with the picking of winners and
01:48:39
losers president Trump was the crypto
01:48:42
president he went and he gave that
01:48:44
famous speech I'm G to get rid of Gary
01:48:45
gansler we're going to make it legal and
01:48:47
to his credit he has fulfilled that
01:48:49
promise which means hey the donor class
01:48:52
on that side said we're going to back
01:48:53
the crypto president not the anti-
01:48:55
crypto team which means a lot of people
01:48:58
who are on the Twitter and the
01:49:00
socials have donated a lot they have a
01:49:02
lot of holding so this appearance which
01:49:05
you've now I would give you credit have
01:49:07
cleaned up here hey there's two
01:49:09
different things going on here and we're
01:49:10
not using taxpayer money we get all that
01:49:13
but the appearance here is hey maybe
01:49:15
somebody's going to benefit of course
01:49:16
that they came after you first for that
01:49:18
without the facts you were very clear
01:49:20
you cleared all your positions you sold
01:49:22
everything you divested so let's make
01:49:24
that clear to the dumb Dums who are just
01:49:26
trying to say that you're personally
01:49:28
address that yeah please cuz this is
01:49:30
ridiculous yeah well people came out
01:49:32
right away and were saying that somehow
01:49:33
I was engaged in a scheme to pump my
01:49:36
bags or to basically create exit
01:49:38
liquidity for myself and and billionaire
01:49:40
stuff like that you have to understand
01:49:41
that those accusations I mean they're
01:49:43
accusing me of a crime and serious crime
01:49:46
and they're doing it with no evidence
01:49:48
whatsoever so these things are basically
01:49:50
it's moral slander slander
01:49:53
yeah I would say so in any event what
01:49:55
they didn't know and what I then
01:49:56
proceeded to put out there is that I
01:49:58
sold all my cryptocurrency prior to day
01:50:01
one of the administration because I
01:50:03
didn't want to even have the appearance
01:50:05
of a conflict and by the way I could
01:50:07
have waited I didn't have to do it like
01:50:09
that but I decided to do it and take it
01:50:11
upon myself to do that because you just
01:50:14
know that when it comes to crypto
01:50:15
there's going to be a lot of
01:50:16
fluctuations in the market you never
01:50:17
want someone to be able to point at one
01:50:19
of those fluctuations and say somehow
01:50:21
that the cryptos are benefited from that
01:50:23
and created a conspiracy theory which is
01:50:25
exactly what basically happened so first
01:50:27
of all I got rid of all my
01:50:28
cryptocurrency prior to day one craft
01:50:30
also sold all craft is the Venture firm
01:50:33
that you funded that's done a lot of
01:50:35
great work uh supporting Founders here
01:50:36
in Valley so we we basically sold I
01:50:38
think it was around $200 million of
01:50:40
crypto of which around $85 million was
01:50:43
personally attributable to myself and we
01:50:46
cleared that before day one paid taxes
01:50:48
on it and basically so there wouldn't be
01:50:50
a conflict so then the the smear shifted
01:50:53
in another Direction was okay well maybe
01:50:55
he doesn't own crypto okay but he's in
01:50:57
crypto funds okay and so they pointed to
01:51:00
you know bitwise and multi-coin capital
01:51:03
and I was also in blockchain capital and
01:51:05
so then the fund managers came out and
01:51:08
one by one all said actually David
01:51:10
called us over two months ago and said
01:51:12
he's going to need to divest from our
01:51:13
funds and so we also did that so yeah
01:51:16
you know I think basically they've kind
01:51:17
of given up on this but look it's very
01:51:19
easy for why let the facts get in the
01:51:21
way of a good ER seriously you full
01:51:24
disclosure you know you when you saw me
01:51:27
doing the sea Scouts program said hey
01:51:28
why don't you do a fund I'll be the
01:51:30
anchor I'll be your first LP and I mean
01:51:31
one of the most generous things you've
01:51:33
done in our
01:51:34
relationship and I had to have a call
01:51:36
with you you know weeks ago and say hey
01:51:39
okay you're going to divest okay fine no
01:51:41
problem no it's not not a problem for me
01:51:43
you sell the assets to somebody else so
01:51:44
the way people understand how this
01:51:45
mechanically works when you're in a fund
01:51:48
you have no sax cannot tell me what to
01:51:50
do in the fund he just put money in it
01:51:52
like I put money in other people's funds
01:51:54
they go and invest and 10 years later
01:51:55
you get a return and hopefully that
01:51:57
return in a venture firm or private firm
01:51:58
beats the markets public markets or
01:52:00
whatever but then you can also sell that
01:52:02
interest to somebody else so
01:52:04
mechanically takes time you have to sell
01:52:06
it at 50% 25% off and it's painful you
01:52:10
will lose I estimate you're going to
01:52:13
lose you know I don't want to be
01:52:14
gratuitous here but eight nine figures
01:52:17
by serving the country for a couple
01:52:18
years and not only that the great irony
01:52:21
of this is the one thing holding back
01:52:23
the industry is regulation
01:52:25
overregulation of AI and no clear
01:52:27
regulation in crypto you're going to fix
01:52:30
the two things that were number one and
01:52:32
two on all of our agendas in Silicon
01:52:34
Valley in terms of getting Returns the
01:52:36
next four years so the sacrifice you're
01:52:37
making is extraordinary and you're
01:52:40
making it a better environment a
01:52:42
regulated environment for the rest of us
01:52:43
to do Commerce so I just want to point
01:52:45
out that you're losing like double here
01:52:47
right well let me let me just underscore
01:52:49
something you said for your service and
01:52:50
I don't know how much they're pay how
01:52:51
much they paying for this job what do
01:52:53
you get paid like 50 Grand 100 Grand I'm
01:52:55
an unpaid consultant to the government
01:52:57
really is that actually accurate you get
01:52:58
no money no I don't want I don't want
01:53:00
any costing you money no of course it is
01:53:02
but it's it's it's an honor to serve and
01:53:04
it's a honor to be asked to serve and in
01:53:07
particular it's an honor to serve this
01:53:08
President because he really wants to
01:53:10
make the country great again so that's
01:53:11
why I'm doing it but yeah look I think
01:53:13
it's a it's a lazy and stupid narrative
01:53:16
to say that the reason why someone who's
01:53:18
already successful in business goes into
01:53:21
government is to make more money I was
01:53:23
making money before this involves a
01:53:25
substantial disruption of my business
01:53:28
interest and I have to devest a lot of
01:53:30
those business interest and in divesting
01:53:32
I have to be either a taxpayer or I have
01:53:34
to take a significant discount and it
01:53:36
costs you money so you know it's just a
01:53:38
lazy narrative that people create but
01:53:42
it's there's no truth to it and just to
01:53:43
underscore a point that that you made a
01:53:44
second ago you were one of the funds I
01:53:47
invested from not because you're a
01:53:48
crypto fund but because you might have a
01:53:50
crypto position we went through I think
01:53:52
the launch funds Holdings and I think
01:53:54
there was something crypto related in
01:53:56
there we have one or two that pivoted
01:53:58
into crypto yes right so I just didn't
01:54:00
want to have any problem there so listen
01:54:03
it's this is the nature of the politics
01:54:05
we have people are you know gets very
01:54:08
personal you know that better than
01:54:09
anybody and so you know that's why
01:54:11
you're here and hopefully we can clean
01:54:13
this all up and uh let people know that
01:54:16
hey the intent here is good so just to
01:54:18
go back to one other point you said
01:54:20
about not picking winners and losers I I
01:54:21
think that's a very important comment
01:54:23
that you made that I see as fundamental
01:54:25
to my job I mean look I think we do
01:54:27
think that Bitcoin is special for the
01:54:28
reasons I said beyond that we do not
01:54:31
want to be in the business of picking
01:54:32
and choosing winners in in the space and
01:54:35
again if some other digital asset could
01:54:38
prove that it's as decentralized and as
01:54:42
secure and as widely accepted as a store
01:54:44
of value as Bitcoin then maybe it could
01:54:46
be elevated in the same way that Bitcoin
01:54:48
has I mean I'm laying out the criteria
01:54:50
for you but look beyond that we don't
01:54:52
want to be picking winners and losers in
01:54:54
the space and that's not my job I mean
01:54:56
my job is not to to be a regulator or to
01:54:59
anoint which ones are good or bad it's
01:55:01
to basically be a policy adviser for
01:55:03
Innovation and I'll just tell you the
01:55:05
way that I see the you know all the
01:55:07
digital Assets in the space is that
01:55:09
what's fundamental is disclosure if
01:55:12
you're an issuer of a digital asset you
01:55:13
need to disclose you know all the
01:55:15
material facts about what you're doing
01:55:17
and those facts have to be accurate you
01:55:19
can't lie my view is that if you if you
01:55:22
the issuer lie about something the
01:55:24
government should come down on you like
01:55:25
a ton of bricks because that's fraud
01:55:27
okay but as long as you do this in an
01:55:29
honest way people should be able to
01:55:31
trade these things I understand that you
01:55:33
think a lot of them are garbage you
01:55:35
might be right you could express that
01:55:37
view in a trade but as long as everyone
01:55:39
has been above board in terms of
01:55:41
disclosure people should have the right
01:55:43
to trade these things and some are going
01:55:44
to make money some are going to lose
01:55:45
money it's about the freedom to
01:55:48
basically to trade to hold these assets
01:55:50
the government doesn't want to get in
01:55:51
the way of that it's just wants to make
01:55:52
sure that the information is out there
01:55:55
that it's honest and if people lie in
01:55:57
order to profit I'm all in favor of
01:55:59
going after them well and you know we
01:56:01
already have a regulated market as an
01:56:03
analogy and when you tell a lie and you
01:56:06
sell a share in a company whether it's a
01:56:08
private or a public company the SEC has
01:56:10
a term for that it's called Securities
01:56:11
fraud and we you know have this new type
01:56:14
of device it's very Innovative it could
01:56:17
be an nft it could be a trading card it
01:56:19
could be an actual utility token where
01:56:21
you burn it in use of a service or it
01:56:23
could be anything it could be whatever
01:56:25
the person describes it as but what's
01:56:28
important is there's an entity with a
01:56:30
group of people I think you would agree
01:56:32
who have said we have ownership of this
01:56:34
we're Incorporated here in the United
01:56:36
States not in Panama not in the BVI not
01:56:39
in some you know other place where maybe
01:56:41
they're a little faster or looser with
01:56:43
regulations you got to be here in the US
01:56:45
maybe you have to be insured in some way
01:56:47
maybe there has to be a board like there
01:56:49
does in Delaware or in an LLC there has
01:56:51
to be some person where the buck stops
01:56:54
and if you lie while committing a
01:56:56
transaction or taking money for an asset
01:56:59
it would be Securities fraud and yes
01:57:01
people will come down on you like a ton
01:57:03
of bricks and if you promote things and
01:57:05
you don't disclose it well we have rules
01:57:07
about that as well we saw many
01:57:08
celebrities get pinched last time uh for
01:57:12
tweeting about cryptocurrencies and this
01:57:15
is the stuff that I think has to stop I
01:57:17
think it should feel more like what we
01:57:19
do in Angel Investing the private
01:57:20
companies and in public companies so
01:57:22
that's your job when are we going to see
01:57:25
you know that framework emerge because
01:57:26
here you're only like 40 50 days into
01:57:28
this I think when we see the actual
01:57:31
bones of a framework so if I want to do
01:57:34
jco and I want to make an Angel
01:57:36
Investing coin or I want to do something
01:57:38
fun an nft collection for Allin or
01:57:40
something when will we have the actual
01:57:42
rules of the road and that and that's
01:57:44
going to be multiple agencies right yeah
01:57:46
what you're describing is is known in
01:57:48
Washington or that the the um the area
01:57:51
of policy that you're describing is
01:57:52
known as Market structure and Market
01:57:54
structure is about providing a clear
01:57:56
framework for Market participants it
01:57:58
would Define what is the security what's
01:58:00
a commodity what's simply a collectible
01:58:03
you know it's property but it's not a
01:58:05
security and then what are the rules for
01:58:07
each category that's know as Market
01:58:08
structure there is a bill that passed
01:58:10
the last Congress in the house but Biden
01:58:13
basically he didn't veto it but he
01:58:15
basically he and the Democrats stopped
01:58:17
he stopped in the Senate the Democrats
01:58:19
did it was called
01:58:20
fit21 and it was authored by french hill
01:58:24
who's now the chairman of the house
01:58:26
Financial Services committee so we
01:58:28
expect that he will be introducing a new
01:58:29
version of his bill probably in the next
01:58:32
few weeks I don't think I'm breaking any
01:58:34
news by saying this I think people
01:58:36
expect it and that's going to provide
01:58:37
the framework for Market structure and
01:58:40
it's going to provide a lot of the
01:58:40
definitions that that you're talking
01:58:42
about now I I agree with your sentiment
01:58:45
okay but I will say that I might have a
01:58:48
different view than you of what is the
01:58:49
security what's not I mean to me
01:58:51
collectible are not Securities but if
01:58:54
it's a collectible you got to disclaim
01:58:56
that look this has no intrinsic value
01:58:59
right that's a collectible think about a
01:59:00
baseball card a baseball card is a piece
01:59:02
of cardboard it has no intrinsic value
01:59:04
but the value comes from basically other
01:59:06
collectors being willing to buy it from
01:59:08
you and you could just say that that's
01:59:10
irrational whatever but so look I think
01:59:12
as long as people disclaim that this
01:59:15
coin has no intrinsic value they should
01:59:17
be able to issue meme coins it's a
01:59:19
separate question why people would want
01:59:21
to buy them but look that's very in my
01:59:24
view that's very different than someone
01:59:25
who goes out as an issuer and says I'm
01:59:28
issuing a token or a coin that has lots
01:59:31
of functionality and has lots of value
01:59:33
and you'll hear some of these guys even
01:59:35
say that hey our token is more valuable
01:59:38
than Bitcoin you should value it more
01:59:39
highly well if you're promising that and
01:59:42
you're saying that it's going to have
01:59:43
certain functionality you better be
01:59:44
telling the truth about it then we start
01:59:46
getting into the how we test and people
01:59:48
can go look that up if they if they want
01:59:50
what I will say is there's an
01:59:51
educational process that has to come in
01:59:53
here which we've gone through as the
01:59:55
United States when people would buy
01:59:56
interest in mines people would buy
01:59:58
interest in gold claims oil fields and
02:00:00
that's when a lot of these regulations
02:00:02
came out in the 20s around accreditation
02:00:05
we've spoke about this before it's a pet
02:00:06
peeve of mind but I think there should
02:00:07
be an educational framework here and I
02:00:09
think there should also be some Nuance
02:00:11
that you could work on specifically with
02:00:13
this group of being clear that when you
02:00:16
have a ticker symbol associated with
02:00:19
something or you do charts associated
02:00:21
with something you know it starts to
02:00:23
smell like a duck it looks like a duck
02:00:24
it's quacking like a duck but then in
02:00:26
the terms of services say hey this is a
02:00:28
collectible I think there needs to be
02:00:29
some ground rules which maybe it says
02:00:31
hey these need to be presented in a
02:00:34
certain way at the top level so the
02:00:37
Nuance of disclosure is so important
02:00:39
when I tweet something if it was an
02:00:41
Advertiser or a sponsor of Allin or this
02:00:43
week in startups or any influencer or
02:00:45
you did would to do this and you said I
02:00:48
love you know this brand you and I both
02:00:51
were well you were an investor in ATM if
02:00:53
we were to tweet about that as investors
02:00:56
we don't have to disclose but if we were
02:00:57
paid for that the FTC has rules you have
02:01:00
to put this is a paid partnership you
02:01:02
cannot confuse consumers and I think
02:01:04
that's where you're going to have to do
02:01:05
a little bit of cleanup work and
02:01:07
structure as well is the disclosure and
02:01:09
how this appears and then also maybe the
02:01:13
educational system so you know if you
02:01:15
want to own a firearm if you want to
02:01:17
drive a car if you want to be you know a
02:01:19
beautician and listen we can talk about
02:01:21
overregulation you got to take tests man
02:01:23
it would just be so much better if
02:01:25
consumers could take you know like a 50
02:01:27
question test just to say hey they
02:01:30
understand what we're talking about here
02:01:32
in in terms of diversification so they
02:01:33
don't yo YOLO their entire mortgage and
02:01:36
house into one crypto so what are your
02:01:38
thoughts on those two issues disclosures
02:01:40
how it's presented and then
02:01:42
accreditation and maybe a path to
02:01:43
accreditation sophisticated investor
02:01:45
tells us how I refer to it for all
02:01:47
Americans because 90% of people can't
02:01:49
participate in private companies your
02:01:51
thoughts well disclosure is the key like
02:01:53
I said I mean these projects should have
02:01:55
to disclose certain things I think for
02:01:57
example the token cap table should be
02:01:59
disclosed who are the who are the
02:02:01
Insiders how much do they have when are
02:02:03
they selling you know that's that's
02:02:05
information the market should always
02:02:06
know in my opinion easily done with the
02:02:08
technology lotted by the crypto
02:02:10
Community the blockchain this could just
02:02:12
be on the blockchain this was always the
02:02:14
problem we had as Venture capitalists
02:02:15
with hey this is a token project who
02:02:17
owns the tokens where are they when can
02:02:20
when can I sell when can you sell
02:02:21
insiders yes yeah I don't think you have
02:02:23
to disclose everyone who owns a token
02:02:25
that could be hard to comply with but I
02:02:26
think you should have to dis you should
02:02:28
have to disclose the Insiders and their
02:02:30
their sales plans and their lockups and
02:02:33
and and I would also say how new tokens
02:02:35
get created I mean if this is a fully
02:02:37
centralized token where they can dism
02:02:40
more people need to know that because
02:02:41
there's no scarcity right but if there's
02:02:44
somehow an enforcement mechanism and
02:02:46
there's enforced scarcity then that's a
02:02:48
different story so yeah these things
02:02:50
have to be disclosed and by the way I
02:02:52
think the market structure bills will do
02:02:54
that there's a version of this in fit 21
02:02:56
last Congress I think it'll be the next
02:02:57
one and moreover the SEC is looking
02:03:00
right now at these rules and they're
02:03:01
going to create their own Frameworks
02:03:03
they're doing an exent J SEC Chief I I
02:03:06
was doing some research on him he's a
02:03:08
really Pro actually more Americans being
02:03:11
able to invest in privates private
02:03:12
Equity Etc and he's given speeches on it
02:03:14
in the past so the person who's been
02:03:16
nominated for the new chair of the SEC
02:03:17
his named Paul Atkins and he he has not
02:03:19
been confirmed yet the confirmation
02:03:20
hearing still need to happen
02:03:22
separately Hester Pur who's a
02:03:24
commissioner at the SEC is in charge of
02:03:26
I know Hester I've had her on uh this
02:03:28
week in startups a couple times she's
02:03:29
great she's excellent she's very well
02:03:31
informed and she's T very sharp taking
02:03:33
the lead on all the crypto related stuff
02:03:35
so I trust her and I trust the SEC to
02:03:37
produce those detailed Frameworks that
02:03:40
you're talking about yeah I think that
02:03:43
my role as call it Innovation policy
02:03:44
adviser is just to kind of make sure
02:03:46
that we have the big picture right and
02:03:48
I'm I'm very confident that the SEC the
02:03:50
cftc and the legis they're going to
02:03:52
figure out the balance here sex you got
02:03:53
to go really proud of the work here uh
02:03:56
congratulations on cleaning this all up
02:03:58
and presenting a really thoughtful plan
02:04:01
that we can all ask you hard questions
02:04:03
on appreciate you taking the hard
02:04:04
questions here on uh the all podcast um
02:04:07
and good luck when you do the rest of
02:04:09
the media circus uh I wonder if I'm
02:04:11
going to be the hardest questioner of
02:04:13
you I I hope so and uh for people asking
02:04:15
yes I'm wearing a suit because I am now
02:04:18
joining the administration big
02:04:19
announcement I'm the official podcast
02:04:22
the official moderator of the uh Trump
02:04:24
White House I'm just kidding I'm just K
02:04:25
people actually believe you all right
02:04:27
man listen I got I got jokes good all
02:04:30
right love you brother we'll see you
02:04:32
soon cheers all right bye all right
02:04:33
everybody I'm obviously super conflicted
02:04:36
sax is my friend of 20 years plus we're
02:04:38
Partners here on the allom podcast and
02:04:41
of course I'm rooting for the
02:04:42
administration but you know I got that
02:04:45
journalist blood in me I always want to
02:04:46
call balls and Strikes I'm going to as
02:04:48
you just heard ask hard questions so if
02:04:51
you're wondering where I'm coming from
02:04:53
I'm going to ask hard questions to my
02:04:55
friends because they're doing important
02:04:58
work for the American people and for the
02:05:00
rest of the people on the planet candid
02:05:02
these are important decisions that saak
02:05:04
is going to have to make about crypto AI
02:05:06
that elon's making with Doge I'm G to
02:05:08
ask hard questions that's the way it's
02:05:10
going to be and so I'm really excited
02:05:12
that they're coming on here they're
02:05:14
going to take the hard questions for me
02:05:15
but they're done in a certain Spirit
02:05:17
which is yes they're my friends but they
02:05:20
got important jobs so they do have to
02:05:21
ask answer the hard questions for the
02:05:23
American people and I'm also curious and
02:05:24
we're all curious where they're coming
02:05:26
from so I feel so privileged that
02:05:28
they're they're choosing to come on all
02:05:29
in to face those hard questions we'll
02:05:32
see you all next time on the all in
02:05:35
podcast let your winners
02:05:37
ride Rainman
02:05:42
David and instead we open source it to
02:05:44
the fans and they've just gone crazy
02:05:46
with it love you queen of
02:05:52
[Music]
02:05:55
besties
02:05:57
are my dog taking your
02:06:02
driveway oh man myit will meet me we
02:06:06
should all just get a room and just have
02:06:07
one big huge orgy cuz they're all
02:06:09
useless it's like this like sexual
02:06:11
tension that they just need to release
02:06:13
[Music]
02:06:18
someh we need to get merch our
02:06:24
[Music]
02:06:28
all I'm doing
02:06:30
[Music]
