00:00:00
Captain calacanus is here reporting for
00:00:03
Duty with us Spirit Airlines cup
00:00:05
absolutely Spirit Airlines I just want
00:00:07
to say all in podcast now sponsored by
00:00:10
Montclair and Spirit Airlines or now
00:00:13
sponsored by the Village People
00:00:15
[Music]
00:00:16
wow
00:00:18
are you a pilot or a flight attendant
00:00:20
Jayco he's a flight attendant I don't
00:00:22
think he's thin enough to be a flight
00:00:23
attendant are you fat shaming me are you
00:00:26
body shaking you can't do that nowadays
00:00:27
that'll get you canceled get exact
00:00:29
canceled at this point like fat shaming
00:00:32
would be number 72 on the list he can't
00:00:34
get canceled because all the libs have
00:00:36
left Twitter there's nobody to there's
00:00:38
no Home monitors left they all pretend
00:00:41
no they quit every week yeah it's like
00:00:43
all the Lives who said they moved to
00:00:44
Canada when Trump got elected yeah
00:00:46
Canada immigration go ahead
00:00:48
[Music]
00:00:49
let your winners ride
00:00:53
[Music]
00:01:00
[Music]
00:01:05
a hacker figured out a way to take all
00:01:08
this data and track you know people's
00:01:11
Yachts people's planes obviously one of
00:01:14
those people was Elon Elon had a
00:01:15
security issue this is all public
00:01:16
information so the larger issue at stake
00:01:19
here is
00:01:21
the fact that the law allows for people
00:01:24
to do this persistent tracking of planes
00:01:29
which then becomes persistent tracking
00:01:31
of a person and what really is at stake
00:01:33
here is how we Define the term doxing
00:01:35
for people who don't know the term
00:01:36
doxing it means giving a person's
00:01:38
location that could be your home that
00:01:39
could also be you're at a location for
00:01:41
some period of time you're at a hotel
00:01:42
you know for a basketball game
00:01:45
uh and it's pretty clear you can take a
00:01:47
picture of a celebrity say there's a
00:01:48
celebrity here oh Lady Gaga's at the
00:01:50
farmer's market what I object to here uh
00:01:53
we all understand doxing is dangerous
00:01:55
and it in fact is against the law to
00:01:57
just get people's addresses and stuff
00:01:59
like that
00:02:00
um
00:02:00
the issue here is a new type of doxing
00:02:03
which I'll call you know persistent
00:02:06
coordinated doxing where dozens of times
00:02:09
a month you're giving a person's
00:02:10
location it may not be against the the
00:02:13
First Amendment sacs I think you would
00:02:15
agree but we have to ask ourselves do we
00:02:17
want to live in a world where whether a
00:02:19
person's on an electric bicycle or an
00:02:21
airplane or any device in between
00:02:22
somebody should be releasing dozens of
00:02:25
times a month a specific dedicated feed
00:02:28
of their location it is terrorizing as a
00:02:31
parent when this happens I've had doxing
00:02:34
people on the call here have had various
00:02:36
security concerns we don't want to live
00:02:38
in a world with de facto doxing what
00:02:41
these sites were doing was de facto doxy
00:02:43
I think it was a bad decision and I
00:02:45
think that it
00:02:47
um
00:02:47
uh represented on
00:02:50
the least generous statement would be
00:02:52
that it represents deep hypocrisy in
00:02:55
that not just a few weeks ago did he say
00:02:57
he would never delete that account but
00:02:59
he also said he was buying Twitter to
00:03:01
enable freedom of speech and freedom of
00:03:03
expression and that he wouldn't come in
00:03:04
and do the same sort of content
00:03:05
moderation that was done by the old
00:03:07
regime and then he came in and did
00:03:09
exactly what the old regime did which is
00:03:11
that he took the rules and he took the
00:03:13
quote moderation policies and he found a
00:03:15
way to use them to make some
00:03:17
editorialized decisions that he thought
00:03:19
was appropriate now the more generous
00:03:21
thing is what you guys are saying which
00:03:23
I don't think is necessarily wrong which
00:03:25
is that he's trying to protect people
00:03:26
where there's some loophole or some law
00:03:29
that doesn't seem right morally but it
00:03:31
is the law and it is what it is
00:03:33
in those cases I think you run into the
00:03:36
exact same issue that the Old Guard at
00:03:38
Twitter had that the moderators and the
00:03:41
executives at YouTube have dealt with
00:03:42
and that the executives at Google have
00:03:44
dealt with and that we sit here and we
00:03:45
criticize until you're on that side of
00:03:47
the table and you're forced to make
00:03:49
these moderation decisions you're forced
00:03:51
to make these policy decisions and
00:03:52
you're forced to implement these policy
00:03:54
decisions because of some moral
00:03:56
framework that you now think is
00:03:58
appropriate and guess what some people
00:04:00
will say that's not freedom of
00:04:01
expression that's not freedom of speech
00:04:03
you're taking that away from some people
00:04:05
you're taking this particular case away
00:04:06
from a 15 or 16 year old kid who's built
00:04:09
a a Twitter feed and so I think what it
00:04:12
shows is just how hard it is to moderate
00:04:14
these sites these platforms and that
00:04:16
there is no simple easy idealistic
00:04:19
ideologue of hey all these things are
00:04:22
open all these things can be used by
00:04:24
anyone all the time because as soon as
00:04:25
one of these edge cases start to happen
00:04:26
you want to come in and do something
00:04:28
about it what do you think what should
00:04:29
happen going forward so I I have had
00:04:31
these issues happen to me multiple times
00:04:33
times
00:04:34
I'm not nearly as important as Elon is
00:04:39
but it feels the same when you're in the
00:04:41
middle of it
00:04:43
it feels pretty terrorizing
00:04:45
that being said I think the real
00:04:48
decision for somebody like me is that if
00:04:51
if it's too much is frankly just to get
00:04:53
rid of it and you know to find a
00:04:55
different mode of transportation that's
00:04:56
a little bit more Anonymous and your
00:04:58
practice about it and the reason I say
00:05:00
that is that I just think that you you
00:05:02
would have to go and get the government
00:05:03
to basically change the law which
00:05:05
they're not going to do and so then as a
00:05:07
result your reaction will seem somewhat
00:05:10
contrived and deeply personal and in
00:05:13
that I think you lose credibility let me
00:05:15
just summarize this and be the first one
00:05:16
to just State this
00:05:18
I think that if there's any person in
00:05:20
the world that can figure out Twitter
00:05:22
it's probably Elon
00:05:24
but man has he taken on just a
00:05:27
gargantuan battle
00:05:29
and increasingly I am not a fan of this
00:05:32
battle and I'll tell you why
00:05:34
this is a man who is essentially proven
00:05:38
that he can bend the laws of physics on
00:05:40
behalf of humanity he's done it twice
00:05:42
once in electric cars and once in
00:05:45
rocketry
00:05:46
the problem is that the realm of
00:05:48
decision making at Twitter has nothing
00:05:50
to do with the laws of physics and is
00:05:52
governed by emotions and psychology in
00:05:56
which there is no canonically right
00:05:57
answer and so he's quickly finding out
00:06:00
that half the population will always
00:06:02
find fault with him no matter what he
00:06:04
does
00:06:05
and now the implication of that becomes
00:06:08
very important
00:06:09
we saw yesterday that he had to sell
00:06:12
another 3.8 billion dollars of Tesla
00:06:14
stock
00:06:15
why is that it's because this
00:06:18
transaction which was you know very
00:06:20
tight to get done probably required lots
00:06:23
of margin you know there I look I have a
00:06:26
margin loan at credit Suite so I know
00:06:28
how these things work and you can very
00:06:30
quickly get Margin Call you have to sell
00:06:32
down things that you own in order to
00:06:33
maintain your collateral limits we've
00:06:36
talked about this before he's had to do
00:06:38
this twice now in the last few weeks and
00:06:40
that's because again not because of the
00:06:42
demand that Tesla as far as we can tell
00:06:44
but because people believe he's
00:06:46
distracted and so people are
00:06:47
anticipating weakness at Tesla people
00:06:49
are now shorting the stock anyways it's
00:06:52
causing this downward spiral
00:06:55
and can he fix it I think so can he pull
00:06:58
it all out sure is it just putting
00:07:01
himself under an enormous amount of
00:07:04
pressure that he could have avoided
00:07:06
somewhat yes and I think that this is
00:07:09
sort of where we're at
00:07:11
um six weeks in my gosh I mean I was
00:07:15
saying this guy learned in six weeks
00:07:17
What it Took YouTube seven years to
00:07:19
learn how hard it is to moderate content
00:07:21
and you know I think the thing is that's
00:07:23
what I disagree is okay you're
00:07:25
attributing so much good faith
00:07:28
to these content moderators at YouTube
00:07:31
and Twitter when the Twitter files
00:07:33
reveal that they made no effort to
00:07:36
suppress their bias in fact they were
00:07:38
like pretty much
00:07:41
dancing in the streets every time they
00:07:44
booted off someone they didn't like fair
00:07:46
enough before you react to What
00:07:47
Friedberg just said at the end that Coda
00:07:48
can you respond to what I just said
00:07:49
isn't it true like it's like well look I
00:07:52
mean if you define what Elon is you know
00:07:55
doing there as you know acting as a
00:07:59
judge arbitrating on every little
00:08:02
content moderation decision is that a
00:08:04
great use of his time relative to what
00:08:06
he could be building at Tesla SpaceX and
00:08:08
doing on behalf of humanity then no
00:08:10
clearly not but if you define what he's
00:08:12
doing in the larger sense as restoring
00:08:14
free speech to the most important Town
00:08:17
Square social network hopefully thereby
00:08:20
inspiring other tech companies to move
00:08:23
in the direction of opening things up
00:08:24
then I actually think it's a pretty good
00:08:26
use for his time so look I think we can
00:08:28
quibble about this or that decision that
00:08:31
he makes or this or that tweet but I
00:08:33
think the overall thrust of what he's
00:08:35
doing is very important for the country
00:08:37
and for Humanity so I get where you're
00:08:40
coming from hopefully he'll find some
00:08:42
people at Twitter who he can Empower and
00:08:45
Trust to make these content moderation
00:08:46
decisions so he's not drawn into every
00:08:49
single little battle right we do want
00:08:51
him focused on the highest priority
00:08:53
problems my point is just that I get
00:08:55
that I just think that what he's
00:08:56
learning and what we're living and
00:08:59
seeing in real time
00:09:00
is that there is no canonically right
00:09:02
decision ever in this space there's only
00:09:05
a decision where some percentage will
00:09:07
support and some percentage will always
00:09:09
be against because that's my point
00:09:10
correct he did say when he took over he
00:09:13
knew that would be the case he said you
00:09:15
will know I'm doing the good job when
00:09:16
both sides are equally upset
00:09:18
just to to put a pin in it I think it's
00:09:20
important for people to understand what
00:09:22
the new policy is so I'm just going to
00:09:24
quickly read it just hang on sorry hang
00:09:27
on one sec before you get to because I
00:09:28
think the the philosophical Point rather
00:09:30
than the specific one is it's an
00:09:32
important one and I just want to respond
00:09:34
to what your mom said and and have sax
00:09:36
respond to this in the case of the the
00:09:38
points you make around the Twitter files
00:09:39
and by the way I don't agree with any of
00:09:41
the moderation decisions personally so I
00:09:44
don't think that someone should be
00:09:46
suspended for posting public information
00:09:48
I don't think someone should be
00:09:49
suspended for saying controversial
00:09:50
things that's my personal opinion just
00:09:52
so I'm clear on that because I know that
00:09:54
you know describe yourself as a strong
00:09:57
Free Speech yeah libertariance okay sure
00:10:00
and um and so in this particular case I
00:10:04
think what really irked me I was trying
00:10:06
to identify why it made me so angry
00:10:07
yesterday it triggered me it really did
00:10:09
and I think the reason was that in the
00:10:11
case of the Twitter file points um it
00:10:14
was a minority it was a minority that
00:10:16
was affected it was one person that was
00:10:18
affected did because the majority wanted
00:10:21
to do that thing to that person and I
00:10:23
think in this case it's that the
00:10:25
minority wants to affect the majority in
00:10:28
the sense that Elon has aggregated this
00:10:30
control and this power over moderation
00:10:32
and he's benefiting himself and a few
00:10:34
people that have private planes and he's
00:10:36
shutting down hundreds of twit feeds
00:10:38
Twitter feeds that are using publicly
00:10:40
available information and so it feels
00:10:42
even more onerous of a
00:10:45
um a use of power and influence because
00:10:48
he's taking um he's doing something that
00:10:50
benefits a small number and affecting a
00:10:53
large larger number whereas the alt
00:10:55
where's the other one was affecting a
00:10:57
small number that benefited a large
00:10:59
number because that's what a lot of
00:11:00
people wanted to see happen a lot of
00:11:02
people wanted to see Trump suspended and
00:11:04
it wasn't right either okay I don't know
00:11:05
if that if that makes sense yeah we
00:11:07
understand your position completely I
00:11:09
just want to add to that
00:11:10
in this policy I think it's very
00:11:12
important to understand what he is
00:11:13
saying about this accounts dedicated to
00:11:16
sharing someone else's live location are
00:11:18
going to be suspended going forward you
00:11:20
can still share your own location
00:11:21
obviously content required uh you know
00:11:24
content for public engagements you know
00:11:26
the president is speaking somewhere
00:11:27
whatever you just really can't be
00:11:29
persistently consistently tracking an
00:11:32
individual Otherwise Known and you know
00:11:35
stalking but Jason if NPR is live
00:11:38
tweeting
00:11:39
sure Jerome Powell's speech perfect XYZ
00:11:43
location not a problem
00:11:45
if they do Jerome Powell's location for
00:11:48
the next year for the next year 10 times
00:11:52
a week
00:11:53
on his off duty on duty that's the same
00:11:56
thing we're talking about I'm just
00:11:57
saying like let's just say he gives a
00:11:58
speech every week
00:12:00
is that illegal no if you totally fine
00:12:02
if you're giving a speech at a public
00:12:04
place where you've announced that you're
00:12:06
going to be appearing at a certain time
00:12:07
and place you've already made the public
00:12:09
where you're getting a problem what
00:12:10
we're talking about is and what what
00:12:12
Elon jet was showing was a live stream
00:12:15
of precision GPS coordinates over a
00:12:18
sustained period of time yes and not to
00:12:20
be too dramatic about it but if you look
00:12:22
at like the weapons that are so
00:12:23
successfully being used in Ukraine right
00:12:25
now they're all Precision GPS guided now
00:12:28
right now you have to be a state actor
00:12:29
to get a hold of those weapons but you
00:12:30
could imagine over the next decade that
00:12:33
having someone's precise GPS coordinates
00:12:36
over a sustained period of time it would
00:12:38
be pretty easy to Target them for and
00:12:40
not to be dramatic here but for
00:12:41
assassination yo that is a security risk
00:12:44
there's no way around that I brought
00:12:45
this up with Palmer lucky man I'm scared
00:12:47
that dude could come at me anytime when
00:12:50
I get my jet I don't want farmer lucky
00:12:52
taking me out
00:12:53
yo Palmer I'm sorry dude do not take me
00:12:56
out I'm gonna get my jet I'll be on my
00:12:58
first flight and he's just gonna to send
00:13:00
a drone in but look let's talk about
00:13:02
hypocrisy for a second okay because here
00:13:04
we go let's let's talk about CNN's
00:13:06
hypocrisy and the media's hypocrisy
00:13:08
because earlier in the week they were
00:13:10
saying that any criticism of yoel Roth
00:13:13
who is Twitter's former head of trust
00:13:15
and safety amounted to a threat to his
00:13:17
safety and they had this like theatrical
00:13:19
tweet where they claimed you as having
00:13:21
to flee his house which a lot of people
00:13:23
found uh pretty Preposterous they were
00:13:26
basically saying that public criticism
00:13:28
of someone who has put themselves out
00:13:30
there to engage in a public debate who's
00:13:32
writing op-ed's New York Times that is a
00:13:34
threat to safety however publishing
00:13:37
someone's real-time location on a
00:13:39
continuous basis so they could be taught
00:13:41
not intellectually consistent it's not
00:13:43
intellectual consensus safety that is
00:13:44
not sorry if if one of those two things
00:13:46
is a threat to safety it's the real-time
00:13:48
doxing of somebody yes I think we Now
00:13:50
understand why Elon did what he did he
00:13:52
basically had an incident in LA in which
00:13:55
the safety of his kid was threatened
00:13:56
because he's got stalkers coming after
00:13:58
him so his safety is a real issue it's
00:14:00
not like a made-up issue yeah why should
00:14:04
his personal
00:14:05
experience affect the usage of the
00:14:07
service that hundreds of millions of
00:14:09
people use and that's the big issue the
00:14:11
decision should not be based on what
00:14:12
affects him personally there needs to be
00:14:14
a possible basis there needs to be a
00:14:15
principal basis for any decision
00:14:18
moderation or censorship maybe in the
00:14:20
first few hours of that decision it
00:14:22
wasn't handled perfectly because there
00:14:23
wasn't a principal basis but since then
00:14:25
one has been put in place the principal
00:14:27
basis is what jaycal showed and this
00:14:29
applies to everybody and so you know now
00:14:32
it's a debate about whether that policy
00:14:34
makes sense now is Elon just as
00:14:36
arbitrary and capricious as the former
00:14:38
uh Executives who are running trust and
00:14:41
safety at Twitter I don't think so for
00:14:43
two reasons number one he's promised
00:14:45
transparency he said that when we ban or
00:14:47
Shadow ban an account there has to be a
00:14:49
reason for it and you have to be alerted
00:14:51
to it in other words none of the Shadow
00:14:52
stuff no should be informed you've got
00:14:55
your speeding ticket you get your ticket
00:14:57
it's there right no more shadow that is
00:14:59
different and then the second thing is
00:15:01
that and again I think you could say
00:15:02
they didn't do this perfectly in the
00:15:04
first few hours but there needs to be a
00:15:06
principal basis for a censorship
00:15:07
decision and it needs to be applied to
00:15:09
everyone equally
00:15:10
and so far we haven't seen any basis for
00:15:12
believing that he's not applying this
00:15:14
principle equally I mean still very
00:15:15
early whereas the former rulers at
00:15:17
Twitter were indulging their personal
00:15:19
bias and personal preferences and who
00:15:21
were they were Banning there were two
00:15:23
standards of Justice if you were someone
00:15:25
who has allied with them it was almost
00:15:27
impossible to get censored no matter how
00:15:30
hateful your tweets were but if you were
00:15:32
somebody on the other side of the
00:15:33
political debate they were eager to
00:15:34
suppress you and I think that at least
00:15:37
so far Elon has not shown that type of
00:15:39
selectivity he's selected against
00:15:41
someone that put him at personal risk
00:15:45
he I think yes
00:15:49
if that's where the decision had stayed
00:15:52
yeah then I would agree with you but I
00:15:54
think that since then they've put in
00:15:56
place they've undergirded that decision
00:15:58
with a personal policy I think those
00:16:00
sites are I think those tweet um streams
00:16:02
are cool I think there's some cool
00:16:03
tweets streams that some of these people
00:16:05
run and there are hundreds of them and
00:16:07
they're actually kind of cool you can
00:16:08
see where these different you're in
00:16:09
favor of people tracking people's planes
00:16:11
like where Air Force One is they show
00:16:12
all these different planes it look and
00:16:14
whether or not the FAA should be
00:16:15
publishing this data as a separate
00:16:16
question but it's on the open internet
00:16:18
it is already there it's like turning
00:16:20
off the RSS feed from the open internet
00:16:22
to protect himself okay that's why it
00:16:25
feels owner so here's the part I agree
00:16:26
with which is I think this policy with
00:16:29
regard to playing specifically is going
00:16:31
to be futile yeah it's going to be at
00:16:33
best harm reduction because as long as
00:16:35
there's many ways to publish this
00:16:36
information
00:16:37
on Facebook so listen I think this whole
00:16:40
I think this whole policy on Twitter is
00:16:42
a little bit of a red herring I think
00:16:44
the real issue issue the real underlying
00:16:46
issue is that the FAA is publishing
00:16:48
these iCal numbers thereby making every
00:16:50
plane personally identifiable I don't
00:16:52
think there's I haven't I have a counter
00:16:54
to explain why if that's necessary I
00:16:55
have a counter to it actually sex if I
00:16:57
may
00:16:58
what we saw whether you agree with it or
00:17:01
not
00:17:02
with the mass Banning of certain
00:17:04
individuals did actually silence them
00:17:07
and take them out of the Public Square
00:17:08
one of the reasons in fact Elon wanted
00:17:10
to buy Twitter so if you look at certain
00:17:12
individuals whether it's Milo Alex Jones
00:17:14
Trump himself right on down the line
00:17:17
when they got banned across all systems
00:17:19
it was dramatic in terms of the reach of
00:17:22
the that information so because of the
00:17:24
size and scale of YouTube Facebook
00:17:26
Twitter
00:17:27
Etc when they act in coordination
00:17:30
they can have a dramatic impact not a
00:17:32
perfect impact but a dramatic which is
00:17:34
why we have this issue of hey should 230
00:17:36
be rethought because when they act on
00:17:38
mass it is extraordinary what they can
00:17:41
do to an individual they took
00:17:43
Alex Joe who how do you consume Alex
00:17:46
Jones you have to seek that out in a
00:17:48
major way it's distinctly different last
00:17:50
word and then we're moving on to what
00:17:53
could be the greatest science Corner
00:17:55
ever in the history of all in pod final
00:17:57
words
00:17:58
I think this is this is a great
00:18:00
transition we're about to talk about
00:18:01
nuclear fusion and my point is I don't
00:18:04
care about any of this stuff like I said
00:18:06
yeah like
00:18:07
this is my point is like the if you if
00:18:10
you take like an average person okay
00:18:13
you know we are let's say awake 16 hours
00:18:16
a day and you know if you take out the
00:18:18
time with our family
00:18:20
David the family is people that are
00:18:22
related to you
00:18:23
um can we DM sax those people one more
00:18:26
time we'll send you their names
00:18:28
um but if you take that out and you take
00:18:30
out you know
00:18:31
exercising and you know can we also
00:18:34
explain that to sax that's when you uh
00:18:36
crease your heart rate and sweat sex the
00:18:39
point is that you have let's just call
00:18:40
it 12 hours you know a functional
00:18:43
executive time that you can apply to a
00:18:45
problem and you can break that down into
00:18:47
these blocks right
00:18:49
I would really love what is basically
00:18:52
the smartest human and the most
00:18:54
productive human of Our Generation to be
00:18:57
feeling those blocks with things that
00:19:00
sort of like really transcend and
00:19:04
increasingly
00:19:06
and I agree that freedom of speech is
00:19:08
important increasingly those buckets are
00:19:10
being filled with things
00:19:12
that are very low level
00:19:15
and Hyper tactical and are distractions
00:19:18
at best to the to the path of free
00:19:20
speech and so I think that hopefully he
00:19:25
gets all this [ __ ] under control over
00:19:26
there
00:19:27
he finds a good executive team
00:19:29
I would like to see him get back to
00:19:32
Landing rockets on barges getting to
00:19:35
Mars
00:19:37
finish self-driving we're almost there
00:19:39
moth definitely has a point but I just
00:19:42
say one of the reasons why we don't care
00:19:43
that much about this issue is because I
00:19:46
think something to understand that's
00:19:48
important is there are different kinds
00:19:49
of speech and different kinds of speech
00:19:51
deserve different levels of protection
00:19:52
the fact of the matter is like business
00:19:53
advertising is not as protected as
00:19:55
political speech porn is not as
00:19:57
protected as political speech political
00:19:59
speech speech criticizing the people on
00:20:01
power is the most protected category of
00:20:03
speech because the founders of the
00:20:05
country understood that the people in
00:20:06
power will always try to insulate
00:20:09
themselves from accountability by
00:20:10
limiting that kind of speech but that is
00:20:12
precisely the kind of speech that the
00:20:14
former rulers of Twitter suppress the
00:20:16
most and showed the least sensitivity to
00:20:18
so listen I mean is Elon going to be the
00:20:21
perfect content moderator no I mean
00:20:23
nobody is nobody is but I do not believe
00:20:26
that puts him in the same category as
00:20:29
you know vijayagati or yoel Roth who
00:20:33
showed no sensitivity for political
00:20:34
speech he has indicated a desire to
00:20:36
restore freedom of speech and I think
00:20:38
they ultimately ended up in a place I
00:20:40
want him to get us
00:20:42
let's move on to Twitter best science
00:20:46
Corner ever
00:20:47
so according to sources scientists work
00:20:50
for the U.S government have achieved a
00:20:52
net energy gain in a fusion reaction no
00:20:55
for the first time not net energy gain
00:20:56
get it right
00:20:57
we had ignition energy which is very
00:21:00
different from that energy gain okay
00:21:01
hold on I know that you're in the
00:21:02
anti-camp please let the science nerd
00:21:05
have you you have to you have to say it
00:21:06
correctly so that people understand what
00:21:08
you're talking about let me just make it
00:21:09
even simpler then explain to us what
00:21:12
Fusion is Dr Friedberg and explain to us
00:21:15
why this could potentially change
00:21:17
everything we did this on a on a show
00:21:19
once before but I'll kind of do a quick
00:21:23
kind of summary again basically if you
00:21:25
take Atomic nuclei which are made of
00:21:27
protons and neutrons
00:21:28
and uh they repel one another right
00:21:30
because protons are positively charged
00:21:33
so they want to push apart from each
00:21:34
other so with enough energy and enough
00:21:36
density meaning that they're moving fast
00:21:38
enough and they're close enough they'll
00:21:40
overcome their repulsion and and jam
00:21:42
into each other when that happens some
00:21:44
energy is released because the total
00:21:46
mass of the fusion of those those nuclei
00:21:50
is actually less than those nuclei when
00:21:53
they're on their own and so some energy
00:21:55
is released and that energy
00:21:57
drives a a chain reaction
00:22:00
and so Fusion is this concept that
00:22:04
is fundamental to physics and
00:22:06
fundamental to the energy driver of our
00:22:07
universe so the star in our uh in our
00:22:10
sky
00:22:11
uh the sun is driven by fusion and only
00:22:15
about 15 of the mass of the Sun at the
00:22:18
center is dense enough to actually drive
00:22:20
Fusion so the big challenge with Fusion
00:22:22
is how do you get these these Atomic
00:22:25
nuclei close enough together and moving
00:22:28
fast enough that they'll actually fuse
00:22:30
and release energy and that's super hard
00:22:32
the reason it happens in the sun is
00:22:34
because the sun has so much mass that
00:22:36
the gravity pulls all those particles
00:22:39
together they get close enough they get
00:22:40
hot enough they move fast enough and
00:22:42
fusion happens boom all this energy
00:22:44
comes out and every day we're warm now
00:22:46
to do it on Earth is very difficult but
00:22:49
if we can do it what happens when you
00:22:51
fuse nuclei together is you don't
00:22:52
release any this isn't like a
00:22:54
radioactive fission reaction
00:22:57
you release energy that can be harnessed
00:22:59
to drive our systems our technology how
00:23:02
is it done yeah so in the 1950s you know
00:23:05
this was theorized hey we could do
00:23:06
Fusion on Earth we got to get a really
00:23:08
really dense plasma meaning the atomic
00:23:10
nuclei and the electrons have kind of
00:23:12
gone off the atoms and it's just the
00:23:14
nuclei spinning apart you got to get
00:23:15
them to move super fast like tens of
00:23:17
millions of degrees Celsius and you got
00:23:19
to get them really close together so how
00:23:21
the heck can you do this so there's a
00:23:23
couple of um Concepts to do this one of
00:23:25
which is called inertial confinement
00:23:27
which is where you basically create a
00:23:29
little pellet of the uh the material
00:23:33
you're going to try and get diffused and
00:23:35
you put a ton of energy on the outside
00:23:36
you can press it really hard really fast
00:23:39
and when you compress it really hard
00:23:40
really fast and you can get it to be
00:23:42
done in a perfect sphere and you can get
00:23:44
it to collapse on itself very quickly
00:23:46
without you know kind of shooting all
00:23:48
over the place enough of those particles
00:23:50
will come close enough together fast
00:23:51
enough hot enough and they will start to
00:23:53
fuse another way is through magnetic
00:23:56
confinement where you use magnet genetic
00:23:58
fields to create a really hot plasma get
00:24:01
it to spin around or to move and then
00:24:02
the magnet brings that super hot plasma
00:24:05
closer and closer and closer together
00:24:06
until all those particles are moving
00:24:08
fast and they're dense enough that they
00:24:10
start to fuse so you know one is called
00:24:12
magnetic confinement the other one's a
00:24:13
neutral confinement and so what we saw
00:24:15
happen this week is at the national
00:24:18
ignition facility which is a facility
00:24:20
that was built starting in 1997 and
00:24:23
they've spent about three and a half
00:24:24
billion dollars to date they
00:24:26
demonstrated a net energy output from
00:24:29
the fusion reaction Governor neutral
00:24:30
confinement system and what that means
00:24:33
is they took a little pellet and that
00:24:34
pellet was made up of deuterium and
00:24:37
tritium the atomic nuclei that they use
00:24:39
the particles that they use are
00:24:41
deuterium which is a proton and a
00:24:43
neutron stuck together and then tritium
00:24:45
which is a proton and two neutrons stuck
00:24:47
together and the reason they use those
00:24:49
two combinations is of all the different
00:24:51
ways you could fuse nuclei together
00:24:54
this has the best energy output of any
00:24:57
kind of reaction Freebird yeah what
00:24:59
actually happened this time that made
00:25:01
this work for what apparently only three
00:25:04
billion dollars you said you didn't say
00:25:05
three trillion said three billion three
00:25:07
yeah about a third of what Sam bankman
00:25:10
fraud stole we have done something here
00:25:12
yeah allegedly so what actually happened
00:25:15
that is so dramatic that we have a press
00:25:18
conference everybody's losing their mind
00:25:19
so yeah I just want to highlight one
00:25:21
more thing about why this is so hard you
00:25:23
have to get such an incredible density
00:25:26
you have to get an incredible energy so
00:25:28
high temperature and high density that
00:25:31
confining those atoms and not letting
00:25:34
them escape and and you know um
00:25:36
basically dissolve before they fuse is
00:25:39
super difficult it requires so much
00:25:41
energy in such a controlled way in such
00:25:43
a perfect and precise way that all of
00:25:46
the digital technology the magnets all
00:25:49
the measurement systems all the software
00:25:51
it's taken us decades to get everything
00:25:53
that allows us to to do this today and
00:25:56
now we're at the point that we may be
00:25:58
able to start to realize production
00:25:59
scale Opera kind of versions of this so
00:26:02
what they did is they had a small
00:26:04
deuterium and tritium pellet and they've
00:26:07
shown 192 lasers onto this container
00:26:09
that held that little fuel those 192
00:26:12
lasers the whole thing happened in a
00:26:14
billionth of a second the laser is
00:26:16
pulsed boom here's an image of it and as
00:26:19
they did that they you know basically
00:26:21
x-rays kind of Hit the sphere this
00:26:23
little BB if you will uh BB kind of
00:26:26
thing and compressed it and it
00:26:28
compressed so quickly and with such heat
00:26:30
and it didn't dissipate because it was
00:26:32
done so precisely all the lasers hit at
00:26:35
the exact Right Time Boom this thing
00:26:37
compressed and then energy came out and
00:26:39
the energy that came out that was
00:26:40
measured was one and a half times the
00:26:42
energy that kind of went into that
00:26:43
reaction and here's a chart that that
00:26:45
I'll show you from the national ignition
00:26:47
facility which shows just how
00:26:49
inefficient the system still is
00:26:51
and this isn't even speaking to um to
00:26:54
chemov's point but basically these guys
00:26:57
um lose 90 percent of the energy that
00:27:00
they put into the the center of the
00:27:02
system only 10 is actually used to drive
00:27:05
the compression the rest of it is lost
00:27:06
and there's a lot of ways to improve the
00:27:08
efficiency of the system from here but
00:27:11
basically they put two megajoules in
00:27:13
they got three Mega joules out and so it
00:27:15
was the first proof Point production
00:27:18
proof point in the 70 years that we've
00:27:20
been theorizing about nuclear fusion
00:27:22
here on planet Earth that this is
00:27:24
possible and it's real now this is these
00:27:27
kind of inertial confinement systems
00:27:28
there are 33 private technology
00:27:32
companies today that have raised about
00:27:34
three to four billion dollars so far
00:27:36
this year
00:27:38
to pursue several other Technologies
00:27:40
besides what the national ignition
00:27:42
facility is showing to try and build
00:27:44
production-ready versions of nuclear
00:27:46
fusion and so these 33 companies are
00:27:49
using a bunch of different types of
00:27:50
tools one of which is the Tokamak if you
00:27:52
show the image I'll show you this one
00:27:54
there it is yeah tokamac this is what we
00:27:55
talked about that is the magnetic
00:27:57
spinning thing that looks like Iron
00:27:59
Man's uh Arc Reactor which I think this
00:28:03
one based it on yeah yeah you create a
00:28:04
plasma you basically speed up the
00:28:06
hydrogen nuclei super super fast these
00:28:08
deuterium and tritium nuclei super super
00:28:11
fast and then you use magnets and the
00:28:13
magnetic field has to precisely squeeze
00:28:16
the plasma squeezing it squeezing it
00:28:18
squeezing it and if it's slightly off
00:28:20
and even the tiniest way think about a
00:28:22
balloon right if you put a pinhole in a
00:28:24
balloon everything escapes from the
00:28:25
balloon yeah you gotta do it that's how
00:28:27
technically hard this is you're
00:28:29
basically trying to create a balloon
00:28:31
with a magnetic field and you're trying
00:28:33
to keep the gas and you're trying to
00:28:34
make it smaller and smaller and smaller
00:28:36
and if any tiny hole emerges the entire
00:28:38
plasma is that what happens in Uranus
00:28:42
like when you're trying to hold in the
00:28:44
wagyu anyway uh let me ask this question
00:28:48
then
00:28:49
um about
00:28:50
the consistency of this and then we'll
00:28:52
go to YouTube off
00:28:53
can they do it consistently or do you
00:28:56
think this is like they got lucky once
00:28:58
uh or are we going to be sitting here a
00:29:00
year from now and they're like we put in
00:29:01
two when we got out six so and we did it
00:29:03
five times yeah so so now we've proven
00:29:06
that humans can do this okay which is
00:29:08
look I mean I want to give you guys some
00:29:10
uh and I know kind of some of chemov's
00:29:12
concerns which is how much can recreate
00:29:14
the sun is what we this comes down to no
00:29:16
yeah but no because no I I want to just
00:29:19
say one like if not even close I want to
00:29:22
say one important thing from a
00:29:24
historical context
00:29:25
all breakthrough technology starts out
00:29:29
seeming impossibly large impossibly
00:29:32
expensive and impossibly slow the Human
00:29:35
Genome Project 20 years ago cost a
00:29:37
hundred million dollars to sequence the
00:29:38
human genome today we can do it in a
00:29:41
couple of minutes for a hundred dollars
00:29:43
okay incredible the first computer the
00:29:45
Antioch computer had 500 flops of
00:29:48
compute capacity it filled a room it
00:29:50
cost eight million dollars to build 20
00:29:53
years later we had a Mainframe
00:29:55
no this is all this emotional [ __ ]
00:29:58
you're using the wrong examples okay let
00:30:00
them finish then you got your mom good
00:30:01
finish your sentence Freeburg and then
00:30:02
we go and today we have an iPhone that
00:30:05
can do 2 trillion flops of compute in
00:30:08
your pocket I think that what we're
00:30:10
seeing with Fusion today is similar to
00:30:12
what we saw with the eniac computer in
00:30:13
the 1950s which is the demonstration
00:30:16
that compute is possible and now we're
00:30:18
seeing a demonstration that Fusion is
00:30:19
possible okay and a lot of folks have
00:30:21
anticipated this moment and they've
00:30:24
invested ahead of this now I don't know
00:30:25
if any of these companies that are
00:30:27
currently kind of being built are going
00:30:28
to be production ready anytime soon my
00:30:30
estimate is that we will see production
00:30:33
demonstration confusion here we go 23rd
00:30:36
in the 2030s so call it eight years from
00:30:39
now plus and then you'll see grid scale
00:30:41
scale up in the 2040s so this isn't
00:30:43
something that's going to happen next
00:30:45
year or two years it's already happening
00:30:46
what are you talking about okay now
00:30:48
tremath your rebuttal oh my God knowing
00:30:51
you're a huge fan of solar this is the
00:30:53
most Naval gazing hit up your ass
00:30:54
scientific [ __ ] okay couple points
00:30:57
let's start with the basics the first is
00:31:00
that there was no previous technical
00:31:03
change
00:31:04
like why are you angry at me I'm not
00:31:06
angry I find this so tiring hearing this
00:31:09
it's all seriously he's right yeah it's
00:31:12
not like I don't get it because I don't
00:31:15
find this intellectually honest okay
00:31:19
let me finish let me finish
00:31:23
okay when you talk about sequencing the
00:31:26
genome there was no alternative so
00:31:28
you're right it was an enormous
00:31:30
technical Leap Forward when we built a
00:31:33
computer there was no analog it was an
00:31:36
enormous technical leap and so you're
00:31:38
right we have a cost curve we don't
00:31:40
understand and then we iterate as
00:31:43
rapidly as possible and all these
00:31:44
Innovations where we've built an entire
00:31:46
infrastructure to ride down the cost
00:31:48
curve the thing is Fusion Energy exists
00:31:52
today
00:31:53
it's called the sun we actually know how
00:31:56
to capture it had virtually no cost
00:31:58
right now so according to the iaea today
00:32:01
you can capture grid level solar energy
00:32:04
for about three cents a kilowatt hour
00:32:06
that's as close to zero as we've ever
00:32:09
been and over the next 10 years their
00:32:11
forecast is it's going to get to one and
00:32:13
a half cents if you then want to store
00:32:15
it and you layer in storage costs we'll
00:32:18
be at a whopping three cents a kilowatt
00:32:21
hour that's where we are today
00:32:24
and so I think that Fusion does exist
00:32:28
I do think that this is an incredible
00:32:30
technical leap to replicate something
00:32:33
that exists and I think that's where the
00:32:35
intellectual dishonesty is it it does
00:32:37
exist it has been captured it can be
00:32:40
harnessed and there is a positive energy
00:32:43
equation just in a different modality
00:32:45
that doesn't speak to these technically
00:32:47
minded individuals a couple of other
00:32:49
points about what I saw I think it's
00:32:51
incredible what happened okay but just
00:32:53
to make sure we're clear
00:32:55
this is 192 lasers
00:32:58
the size of three football fields
00:33:01
that consumed 322 megajoules of energy
00:33:05
which then ultimately delivered two
00:33:07
megajoules to a Target which then
00:33:08
released three so this is why I'm saying
00:33:10
we had positive what's called Ignition
00:33:12
energy we did not have positive
00:33:14
electrical energy captured so yeah could
00:33:16
we figure this out absolutely can we
00:33:19
then shrink the three football fields
00:33:20
down to something that looks the size of
00:33:23
a laptop we possibly could will it take
00:33:26
20 or 30 years possibly but in the
00:33:28
meanwhile if the goal is unlimited
00:33:30
Costless energy
00:33:32
you're on that cost curve already yeah
00:33:35
but why can't it be both so you said I
00:33:37
was being intellectually dishonest
00:33:39
dishonest yeah you're comparing what
00:33:42
you're saying is right yes you can get
00:33:44
which seem to be in agreement like yeah
00:33:46
I I just think that I think that you're
00:33:48
trying to say that this is an entirely
00:33:50
new thing no it's a different approach
00:33:52
to a thing we've already beaten and and
00:33:55
basically captured let me bring what I
00:33:58
would argue to mop and I think this is
00:34:00
important
00:34:02
future on say a football field sized
00:34:04
facility from solar is you know a tiny
00:34:08
fraction of the energy you could
00:34:09
generate from a football field size
00:34:11
Fusion reactor and that's why the
00:34:13
argument would be like hey you know when
00:34:15
we were developing computers hey we have
00:34:17
abacuses we shouldn't be developing
00:34:18
computers and I think that's that's the
00:34:20
analogy I would use here this is why the
00:34:22
cost per kilowatt hour is what the uh
00:34:25
the levelized cost of energy tries to do
00:34:27
it tries to to normalize that argument
00:34:30
away because everybody would say that
00:34:32
hey hold on a second you're going to
00:34:34
need plain fulls of this or boatloads of
00:34:37
that and people said no what's the
00:34:38
levelized cost of energy how what is the
00:34:41
cost per kilowatt hour to generate
00:34:43
energy and what I'm saying is that is an
00:34:46
absolute scale and free is zero and
00:34:49
we're at 1.5 cents here's what I would
00:34:52
say once check out one sec okay the
00:34:54
opportunity here is not necessarily
00:34:56
about cost reduction it is about
00:34:58
scalability and if hydrogen is abundant
00:35:01
which it is on this planet it is nearly
00:35:03
infinitely abundant we can take that
00:35:06
hydrogen and we can scale up energy and
00:35:08
electricity production in a way that is
00:35:10
unimaginable compared to solar and I
00:35:12
don't think that solar should be
00:35:14
excluded solar is key today and should
00:35:16
be scaled up and I'm 100 agreement with
00:35:18
you but the scalability to go 100x if we
00:35:21
want to make a hundred times more
00:35:22
electricity I think we need fusion and I
00:35:25
think that it's feasible so I think we
00:35:27
have uh reached a good settlement here
00:35:30
chamath you're saying Hey listen we're
00:35:32
getting solar down so cheap we can solve
00:35:34
this problem all forms of energy okay
00:35:36
great we are solving that so for our
00:35:38
needs today and then what Friedberg is
00:35:40
saying but what if you had unlimited a
00:35:43
thing that we can't even imagine
00:35:44
beautiful now watch as I get sacks
00:35:48
involved in a science conversation he
00:35:50
has zero interest in
00:35:52
Mr David sacks
00:35:54
if in fact there was one hundred percent
00:35:57
more free electricity available in this
00:36:00
time frame the next 10 days
00:36:02
100x the available energy in other words
00:36:04
supply of energy just becomes flooded
00:36:08
and it's free essentially what would be
00:36:11
the geopolitical reaction on planet
00:36:13
Earth in terms of uh this incredible
00:36:17
rivalry rivalry we have with China and
00:36:20
for Humanity on a political basis such a
00:36:23
good question Jacob go ahead that's a
00:36:25
good question here we go thank you
00:36:26
world's greatest moderate ATM while we
00:36:28
let Freeburg answer it no no but you're
00:36:29
the politics guy get in there what um I
00:36:32
already has thought about this let's I
00:36:34
want to hear his answer I actually want
00:36:36
to hear your answer unless you know in
00:36:38
in a world where you know energy becomes
00:36:40
more abundant hasn't been paying
00:36:43
attention guys this is what he's trying
00:36:44
to say
00:36:50
I'll call your intellectual dishonesty
00:36:53
and raise you a steel man good
00:36:57
go ahead I love you I love you you know
00:36:59
I do have a great night out Monday night
00:37:02
a Sunday night let's talk later
00:37:05
I just wanted to go together last week
00:37:07
he called me Petty too here's what I
00:37:10
want to be clear I think that I'm just
00:37:12
glad you guys are fighting not mean sex
00:37:14
guys please let me finish okay I think
00:37:16
Memphis breakthrough is really valuable
00:37:18
I think it's interesting to see that
00:37:19
these kinds of scientific breakthroughs
00:37:21
continue to happen in
00:37:23
government-sponsored facilities and not
00:37:25
private companies
00:37:26
um and I think that that's probably
00:37:27
where a lot of these Innovations will
00:37:29
continue to come from because look at
00:37:31
the scale of what had to be built three
00:37:33
football fields and 322 megajoules of
00:37:36
energy and 192 lasers this is really
00:37:38
complicated expensive stuff I'm an
00:37:40
enormous fan of these kinds of
00:37:41
scientific breakthroughs I want to be
00:37:43
clear
00:37:43
I think that where I struggle is
00:37:47
translating this into actually an
00:37:49
investable area and I worry that this is
00:37:53
going to consume lots of money by folks
00:37:56
that could otherwise put money to work
00:37:58
in things that will actually pull
00:38:00
forward our energy Independence and
00:38:02
energy abundance sooner and faster so
00:38:04
for example you know there are all kinds
00:38:07
of things that we could do to secondary
00:38:09
ternary third and fourth and fifth
00:38:12
generation batteries that aren't
00:38:13
happening today there are a bunch of
00:38:15
things that we could do to actually
00:38:16
create an infrastructure of green
00:38:17
hydrogen and the the simplistic answer
00:38:20
is we could do it all but the reality is
00:38:22
money is finite and we can't
00:38:25
and all I'm observing is I do think that
00:38:27
more practical things that do have
00:38:29
geopolitical ramifications sooner
00:38:32
are not going to get funded because
00:38:34
people do get enraptured by this and my
00:38:36
skepticism is that this is still in the
00:38:40
realm of government-sponsored research
00:38:43
and is not really an area that
00:38:45
for-profit private companies can tackle
00:38:47
and so I would rather those for-profit
00:38:49
companies for example why combinator
00:38:50
just today
00:38:52
put out something where they were you
00:38:54
know call to action a request for
00:38:55
startups in climate and when you look at
00:38:57
that list those are really practical
00:38:59
investable areas and I just want to make
00:39:01
sure that the capital allocators that
00:39:03
listen to this weigh those equally
00:39:06
I am glad I'm glad that the U.S
00:39:08
government did this I hope they do more
00:39:10
of this but if you're asking me quite
00:39:12
honestly I would rather the next 10
00:39:14
billion dollars go into Energy
00:39:16
Efficiency HVAC then Fusion because a
00:39:19
fusion exists and B I think it's going
00:39:22
to happen at an Innovative bench scale
00:39:24
level by the government and not by a
00:39:28
particle let me let me just respond to
00:39:29
that real quick
00:39:30
I think that the idea of allocating our
00:39:34
resources as a society should be done on
00:39:37
kind of you know on a portfolio basis
00:39:39
eighty percent on the pragmatic near
00:39:41
term 15 on the kind of next gen and five
00:39:45
percent on the moonshot and this maybe
00:39:47
starts to shift from the five percent to
00:39:49
the 15 maybe it's still in the five
00:39:51
percent but I don't see kind of
00:39:53
overfunding happening so I'll tell you
00:39:55
guys there was a survey done there's 33
00:39:57
private companies in Fusion that are
00:39:58
kind of fusion companies today uh VC
00:40:01
back eight new this year so the numbers
00:40:04
kind of increased by 33 this year and um
00:40:07
so far this year those companies have
00:40:09
raised around three to four billion
00:40:10
dollars which by the way is a fraction
00:40:13
of what was done by 15 minute delivery
00:40:15
companies exactly my point and and by
00:40:18
the way the biggest funding is happening
00:40:20
in iCare which is the largest
00:40:22
construction project in Europe and this
00:40:24
is a 30 billion dollar production scale
00:40:27
Fusion demonstration system that should
00:40:29
be online by the end of the 2020s
00:40:30
government sponsored government
00:40:31
sponsored yeah and so this is my point
00:40:33
I'm a huge fan of government-sponsored
00:40:35
research how we get finally the first
00:40:38
science Corner Everybody Breaks
00:40:40
themselves it's the first science corner
00:40:42
where David sacks has it about the
00:40:44
Cherry sacks here we go come on you're
00:40:45
coming in you can do it again
00:40:48
your question was a little bit was was
00:40:51
not a let me rephrase okay what's the
00:40:54
geopolitical impact if this does happen
00:40:56
100x energy is fantastic for the United
00:40:59
States if it actually happens and the
00:41:00
reason is if you look across the world
00:41:02
there's this thing in politics known as
00:41:05
resource curse where the worst
00:41:08
governments the most despotic
00:41:09
governments tend to be in the countries
00:41:12
that have the biggest natural resources
00:41:15
ironically so the countries that have
00:41:18
huge amounts of petroleum or other kinds
00:41:20
of minerals they tend to have pretty
00:41:23
corrupt governments and the reason for
00:41:26
that is that if you're sitting on a
00:41:29
giant oil Reserve you don't need to make
00:41:30
anything else work you just fight over
00:41:32
who gets to control that oil reserve and
00:41:34
that's what politics ends up being you
00:41:36
don't need to create policies that
00:41:39
Foster Innovation or attract knowledge
00:41:41
workers right you just basically mine
00:41:43
that oil so if all of a sudden you're
00:41:46
talking about turning energy into a
00:41:50
software problem or an innovation
00:41:51
problem that looks a lot more like the
00:41:53
software industry that's an area where
00:41:55
the United States has a huge advantage
00:41:57
and yeah I think it would pull the rug
00:41:59
out from under many countries all over
00:42:01
the world in favor of the United States
00:42:04
I mean it's a big if because where I
00:42:06
agree with chamoth is this stuff still
00:42:08
seems pretty far off and it's still
00:42:10
pretty unproven from a commercial
00:42:12
standpoint but I agree with Freeburg why
00:42:15
not try investing in it and cultivating
00:42:17
it and see where it goes okay fantastic
00:42:19
this was a fantastic science corner
00:42:22
where we actually engaged David Sachs
00:42:24
which country uh did you have anything
00:42:27
to disagree with there Jacob
00:42:29
all right take it easy this I just want
00:42:31
to let people know that I think you you
00:42:32
like that answer right well I I love all
00:42:35
of your intellectual enough for you or
00:42:37
was it I love your intellectually I love
00:42:39
Turtles
00:42:41
I was a steel person it felt so fresh it
00:42:44
felt silver so romantic but I love when
00:42:47
you're intellectually honest silver
00:42:48
personing yeah it's just over vaying
00:42:51
you're super thing was that platinum
00:42:53
gold or silver
00:42:54
you're you're in Platinum with some
00:42:56
diamond dust um can I just say spent a
00:43:00
couple nights together this past week
00:43:01
has really really does the mood of the
00:43:03
show I mean when you guys go out and
00:43:04
drink together and have fun hilarious
00:43:06
you guys are sax and I laughed our asses
00:43:08
off Sunday night can I just say we Saks
00:43:11
and I had the best 48 hours together in
00:43:13
a decade this is Sunday night
00:43:16
it turns out Chris Rock and Chappelle
00:43:18
are playing at the chase Center where um
00:43:20
Shabbat used to own a piece of the
00:43:22
Warriors right
00:43:23
and this incredible Arena has this
00:43:26
incredible show and you know me and sax
00:43:29
and some friends we'll leave it at that
00:43:30
go to the show our bestie Draymond is at
00:43:33
the show so I text Dre and I'm like hey
00:43:35
you going to see Chris Rock by chance
00:43:37
tonight with uh Chappelle you say yes
00:43:39
sir I said hey I'm gonna go with a
00:43:41
couple friends maybe we roll together
00:43:42
hang out after the show
00:43:44
we go
00:43:47
and after the game after the show which
00:43:49
was incredible
00:43:50
we go backstage and I'm sorry to the to
00:43:53
the practice court
00:43:55
and we're hanging out with Draymond in
00:43:56
the practice court
00:43:58
with Dave Chappelle Dave Chappelle and I
00:44:00
start shooting hoops
00:44:02
David sacks is talking to Chris Rock
00:44:03
about free speech
00:44:05
Steph Curry comes out and starts giving
00:44:08
Dave Chappelle and Jay cow uh shooting
00:44:11
lessons
00:44:12
where Chappelle and I are bricking like
00:44:15
old men you know you know uh on a
00:44:18
concrete court all of a sudden Steph
00:44:20
says hey Jacob you got it and by the way
00:44:22
he's a fan of the show he says you're
00:44:24
short every time and uh just you know
00:44:26
hit the backboard you got to go long
00:44:28
then he tells Chappelle you got to
00:44:29
change this all of a sudden we start
00:44:31
hitting shots like you know we're on
00:44:33
rainy threes you're reigning threes it
00:44:36
was literally like cut into here over
00:44:37
these mid-range jumpers or threes I was
00:44:39
a free throw line extended free throw
00:44:41
line extended cut into here Rain Man and
00:44:44
rain dance from Along Came Polly rain
00:44:47
dance Raymond
00:44:49
let it ride
00:44:52
Rain Dance Let It Ride
00:44:56
Let It Rain
00:44:58
I was hitting brick after brick rest in
00:45:01
peace Philip Sumer Hoffman so then we're
00:45:03
chilling
00:45:04
and uh sax and I are talking to Dave
00:45:07
Chappelle
00:45:08
Joe lakum owner of the Warriors are
00:45:10
there the majority owner uh you know as
00:45:13
opposed to you being a minority owner
00:45:18
the only person who draws more names is
00:45:21
Phil Hellmuth I mean absolutely I'm
00:45:22
trying to catch up anymore
00:45:36
so we I kid you not
00:45:39
Chappelle comes over and says
00:45:41
chica sex you guys want to go to uh
00:45:45
after to do it go go see me do a show at
00:45:47
like 1am at this like local comedy club
00:45:49
with 70 seats I said word yes we go at
00:45:54
1am Chappelle sits on stage
00:45:56
smoking cigarettes
00:45:59
and
00:46:01
doing 90 second pauses and then having a
00:46:05
beer and interacting with the audience
00:46:07
and does a two hour set after doing this
00:46:10
set with Chris Rock at the chase Center
00:46:12
me and sax and Draymond hilariously
00:46:15
laughing
00:46:16
the the stuff Chappelle is a genius
00:46:20
and when you see his show and Chris Rock
00:46:22
by the way he puts a tight set together
00:46:24
I mean Chappelle's got this storytelling
00:46:27
thing where he kind of meanders a little
00:46:28
bit and then he hits you with it but
00:46:30
Chris Rock is just bang bang bang bang
00:46:32
bang
00:46:33
extraordinary just two Incredible Minds
00:46:37
at the top of their game artists artists
00:46:39
at the top of their game doing what
00:46:41
Society needs
00:46:43
but more importantly doing what David
00:46:45
Saxon I needed which was to laugh our
00:46:48
asses off together and remember our
00:46:50
friendship so it was a great night out I
00:46:52
want to say to bestie Draymond Dave
00:46:54
Chappelle and Chris Rock thank you the
00:46:57
David sacks Jake house bestie friendship
00:46:59
has never been stronger I don't know
00:47:01
about Freeburg and Tremont that seems to
00:47:02
be on the Rocks yeah it's weird we'll be
00:47:05
in there we'll be vacationing together
00:47:07
next week so we'll I love it I love
00:47:09
feedback yeah well well we are going to
00:47:12
be whatever whatever's going on we'll
00:47:14
take a walk and figure it out well I
00:47:15
just want to say the alliances amongst
00:47:17
the besties I'll be honest I got mad at
00:47:20
Friedberg when he edited that Google bit
00:47:22
to say the exact opposite of what he
00:47:24
actually said
00:47:26
yeah just beep that but yes that is the
00:47:29
thing that bothered me I have to be
00:47:30
honest that's you playing to the crowd
00:47:32
versus you being honest and telling what
00:47:34
you think
00:47:36
if put that in the form of question
00:47:38
Freeburg has your Fame as the Sultan of
00:47:41
science because listen you nobody knew
00:47:43
who you were outside of Silicon Valley
00:47:44
before this look has it impacted your
00:47:46
ability to speak no no not my standard
00:47:48
look I I'll be I'll be honest
00:47:52
and I'll speak openly about this I had
00:47:54
said that there could probably be a
00:47:55
significant head count reduction of like
00:47:58
75 at Google and the business could keep
00:48:00
operating
00:48:02
and I took it out and I took it out
00:48:04
because I have a lot of friends that
00:48:06
work at Google Google's a close partner
00:48:08
of mine they're an investor of mine and
00:48:11
um frankly I just want to be careful
00:48:12
about that it's not something I commonly
00:48:14
do you know as you guys know I usually
00:48:16
speak my mind pretty clearly but I was
00:48:17
just trying to be respectful and that's
00:48:18
the reason I did it you know I think
00:48:21
that that was fine what I'm saying is
00:48:22
not that it's just that
00:48:24
the part that you edited in actually
00:48:27
made it seem like you were not saying
00:48:28
that at all but the opposite I think if
00:48:30
you would cut the whole thing it would
00:48:32
have been more honest so to keep that
00:48:34
other thing in actually led the
00:48:36
perception of the opposite so you were
00:48:38
triggered by that no no I don't have
00:48:40
triggered I'm saying but I think you
00:48:41
should have a principle very often like
00:48:44
yeah I know I think that we should just
00:48:46
have a principle
00:48:48
to not play to what the perception of
00:48:50
what we say should be especially if it
00:48:52
means we could be saying the opposite of
00:48:54
what we actually mean that's all
00:48:55
intellectual honesty is it bestie tenant
00:48:58
it's a bestie tenant I think so
00:49:00
absolutely bestie always and the other
00:49:02
bestie besties always come back together
00:49:03
if we have a fight we always come back
00:49:05
together
00:49:06
sax can I I'm still mad at you a little
00:49:09
bit I'm just kidding okay we're just
00:49:12
talking about hypocrisy I mean so how
00:49:14
great was Sunday night gets up there and
00:49:17
he gets like right out of the gate he's
00:49:18
attacking woke right out of the gate
00:49:20
swinging Came Out Swinging like Will
00:49:23
Smith
00:49:25
Shooks Matthew
00:49:27
Smith he took down Will Smith I mean the
00:49:31
Will Smith takedown which you will see
00:49:32
in this special
00:49:33
is so complete
00:49:36
it is just chef's kiss but how great was
00:49:39
his scent let's say just give Chris Rock
00:49:42
his flowers did he fillet and fricassee
00:49:46
he he did but I thought the more
00:49:48
important part of the set was the he
00:49:50
came right out like calling out all this
00:49:52
you know you know older than thou woke
00:49:55
stuff yeah
00:49:56
and and there was that undercurrent to
00:49:58
Chappelle's set as well and also he said
00:50:01
listen words can't hurt you unless you
00:50:04
write them on a piece of paper from time
00:50:05
to a brick
00:50:07
we these uh a bigger point right now and
00:50:10
this does tie into our first story is I
00:50:13
think comedians look at Twitter as a
00:50:15
place to get canceled not a place to be
00:50:17
part of the discourse and that's a huge
00:50:19
loss that's indicative
00:50:20
of our society being broken and it's
00:50:23
incredibly important
00:50:25
that these comedians be allowed
00:50:28
to Mock and to speak and to step over
00:50:32
the line and challenge us as Citizens in
00:50:36
a free Society
00:50:37
and we should cherish them and we should
00:50:39
not even try to cancel them let them
00:50:41
cross the line let them say things that
00:50:44
make us uncomfortable so that we can
00:50:45
understand ourselves and our society
00:50:47
better and I just want to say why can't
00:50:49
you include Elizabeth's Tick Tock in
00:50:51
that
00:50:51
oh do we want to have a discussion about
00:50:53
it I can't watch the next conversation
00:50:55
about it what's the next time okay with
00:50:57
mocking I just don't start you guys you
00:50:59
did so well come on let's go here we go
00:51:03
cut it out all right well we have two
00:51:04
more science Corners to get
00:51:07
all right well if you don't I mean I
00:51:10
just want to talk about the Koopa deal
00:51:11
and sex this is right up your alley have
00:51:13
you ever had this attention to it to be
00:51:16
honest oh really the thing you guys
00:51:18
asked is like you know what signal will
00:51:21
Elon moves at Twitter uh be for the rest
00:51:25
of uh the tech industry I think the
00:51:28
biggest wake-up call is to actually PE
00:51:30
companies so if you played this out and
00:51:33
you think that Koopa is you know explain
00:51:37
please Koopa is a is a software as a
00:51:41
service company that does revenue
00:51:43
management I guess or expense
00:51:45
forecasting or some something in the
00:51:48
financial realm I don't particularly
00:51:49
know to be honest but anyways this is a
00:51:52
company that you know was off 70 or 80
00:51:54
from the high like a lot of SAS
00:51:56
companies were when rates started to go
00:51:58
up and they got this offer from from
00:52:01
Toma Bravo but here's what's so
00:52:03
interesting about this deal if you think
00:52:05
that you know these guys bought a
00:52:07
company I'm just going to make up a
00:52:09
number at 20 times ebitda right
00:52:14
and and you see Elon at Twitter and you
00:52:16
think well wait maybe we can't cut 75
00:52:18
but maybe we can cut 50 a headcount and
00:52:21
the company can still do well
00:52:22
and you know you take half of the
00:52:25
expenses out of the business
00:52:27
all of a sudden you know if you keep it
00:52:28
to doubles you're actually buying it at
00:52:30
10 times
00:52:31
so I think the thing
00:52:33
that is the that is the real insight
00:52:36
here is twofold private Equity can still
00:52:40
put out a lot of private credit to fund
00:52:42
these deals and SAS companies are
00:52:44
perfect because they have huge free cash
00:52:45
flow right so instead of funding it
00:52:47
based on earnings they can fund it based
00:52:48
on ACV and ARR so private Equity will be
00:52:52
super active and two all these Rifts
00:52:54
basically show
00:52:56
what the efficient Frontier is for the
00:52:58
number of employees you need to run a
00:52:59
company and if you can cut 50 of the
00:53:01
headcount private Equity folks will do
00:53:04
that
00:53:05
and so I think Koopa is like the canary
00:53:07
in the coal mine it is the beginning
00:53:10
of what I suspect is a tidal wave of PE
00:53:14
sponsor deals
00:53:16
in tech companies largely SAS but may go
00:53:19
into other Realms yeah recurring Revenue
00:53:21
that can take advantage of these two
00:53:23
things top private credit markets and
00:53:25
finance it based on ARR and then fire 50
00:53:28
of the team and double earnings capacity
00:53:30
Saks are those so on on Koopa I thought
00:53:33
the most interesting thing was just the
00:53:35
we got a public comp well we got a comp
00:53:38
on what private Equity is paying for
00:53:41
public companies right now so the deal
00:53:43
happened at an eight billion dollar
00:53:45
valuation that was a 31 premium to the
00:53:48
public price it was 8.4 times next 12
00:53:51
months uh revenue and on a trailing
00:53:54
basis it was about uh 10.4 times the
00:53:58
last 12 months revenue and by the way
00:54:00
all the comments were around how what a
00:54:03
rich price Tomar Bravo was paying people
00:54:05
generally thought they were paying a
00:54:07
premium to the valuation
00:54:09
it was 77 premium uh before the rumors
00:54:13
came out that this was happening so it's
00:54:14
a pretty good premium yeah and there was
00:54:16
and there was a there was a bidding war
00:54:18
with Vista
00:54:20
and so it was uh it was a really rich
00:54:22
kind of deal that got done here right so
00:54:24
so my my point is that people thought
00:54:27
this was a really rich deal and yet the
00:54:29
valuation of multiples are so much lower
00:54:31
than what private company Founders
00:54:33
expect
00:54:34
so remember last year at you know the
00:54:37
peak Founders were thinking a hundred
00:54:40
times the AR was normal a hundred times
00:54:42
and you know you could roughly say you
00:54:44
know ARR is is roughly equivalent to the
00:54:46
next 12 months Revenue it's not perfect
00:54:48
but it's roughly the case so these
00:54:50
Founders were expecting evaluation uh
00:54:54
multiple 10 times what the public
00:54:56
markets are paying and the public more
00:54:58
and and actually the public markets are
00:55:00
are half of where tomorrow Bravo was in
00:55:03
this particular deal so the public
00:55:05
markets right now are valuing
00:55:07
uh the median SAS company at about five
00:55:10
and a half times and a high growth
00:55:12
that'd be for like a 20 year rear
00:55:14
growing company and they're valuing the
00:55:16
high growth companies that maybe eight
00:55:18
times you know until Bravo did this at
00:55:20
10 times so that gives you a sense of
00:55:22
what the ballpark is and these are
00:55:24
companies that are already public
00:55:25
they're at scale they're doing roughly a
00:55:28
billion dollars of ARR they have already
00:55:30
kind of won their category to some
00:55:33
degree whereas private companies are
00:55:35
subscale they're you know typically
00:55:37
you're talking about companies with 1 5
00:55:40
10 usually under 20 million dollars of
00:55:42
ARR they are they're not de-risk they're
00:55:45
still a ton of risk we've seen many many
00:55:47
SAS companies fizzle out and Plateau at
00:55:50
20 million of ARR never get to 100
00:55:52
million never mind a billion and yet
00:55:54
these Founders think that they're
00:55:55
entitled to
00:55:57
you know even in this market 30 to 40
00:55:59
times ARR no way I mean like it's
00:56:02
getting to the point now where you know
00:56:04
maybe it should be
00:56:05
10 times 20 times like Max for and that
00:56:09
would be for a company that's growing
00:56:10
two and a half three x year over year so
00:56:13
I still think that like so I think
00:56:14
basically what we're seeing here is even
00:56:16
a good scenario like a coupe acquisition
00:56:18
that was done at a premium like it's
00:56:21
still a wake-up call to the private
00:56:23
markets that the valuations are still
00:56:24
completely and utterly out of whack yeah
00:56:27
let me ask you a question Zach so this
00:56:28
company was growing 45 last year they're
00:56:31
growing 35 this year and they got this
00:56:34
multiple why is it not worth a
00:56:37
significantly higher multiple if a
00:56:39
company's growing two and a half to
00:56:40
three x which is 250 300 percent and
00:56:43
these guys are only growing 35 sure I
00:56:46
mean it it is
00:56:47
um and that's what you're paying a
00:56:48
premium for but so the so the the here's
00:56:52
the theory of it is that if you can
00:56:53
invest in a private company that's say
00:56:54
tripling year over year and they can do
00:56:56
that for another five years or whatever
00:56:58
then you're paying for that you're
00:57:00
paying for that outcome in a couple
00:57:01
years right yeah basically well think
00:57:03
about it you're getting a discount to
00:57:04
the outcome in a couple years well if
00:57:05
you're paying 30 times today and it
00:57:07
triples next year you're only paying 10
00:57:08
times next year you're only paying three
00:57:11
times so if that keeps going that's
00:57:13
where your Arbitrage is but here's the
00:57:15
thing you have to weigh against that is
00:57:17
that these early stage private companies
00:57:19
many things go wrong and they hit a
00:57:22
plateau they fizzle out or their growth
00:57:25
rate starts to the bigger they get the
00:57:27
harder it is so they should be priced at
00:57:28
a discount not a premium because there's
00:57:30
risk there's more risk they're growing
00:57:33
faster but there's more risk but also
00:57:35
it's very hard once you get to a bigger
00:57:37
number of ARR 50 100 million of ARR it's
00:57:40
extremely difficult to be doubling or
00:57:42
tripling over a year let me just point
00:57:44
one thing out so I looked at the numbers
00:57:45
on Koopa I think they had about 170
00:57:48
million of stock based comp expense in
00:57:50
the last nine months
00:57:52
so those are employees that are getting
00:57:55
170 million dollars in compensation
00:57:58
in the form of shares so they get those
00:58:00
shares they can then sell those shares
00:58:02
and get cash for them on the public
00:58:04
market and then on the public markets
00:58:06
and pay their bills so when a company
00:58:08
like this goes private for those
00:58:10
employees to just remain at their
00:58:12
Baseline comp that stock based comp
00:58:15
needs to be replaced with something else
00:58:17
or else they're seeing their salaries
00:58:19
reduced so you know there's this
00:58:22
balancing game when these companies go
00:58:24
private in terms of how do you give them
00:58:27
the comp that they're earning to keep
00:58:29
them engaged in the business the answer
00:58:31
is you don't versus no but that's quick
00:58:34
because you want to do a riff anyway
00:58:36
right so I mean do you but for the
00:58:37
people that stay
00:58:39
right so so there's a balance because
00:58:41
it's not just hey cut the Opex you have
00:58:43
to cut the Opex including stock base
00:58:45
comp and this company generated
00:58:48
about a hundred million dollars sorry
00:58:51
210 million dollars of free cash flow or
00:58:53
operating cash flow in the last 12
00:58:55
months so if you if you take out the
00:58:57
stock based comp
00:58:59
these guys are actually Break Even or
00:59:00
losing money roughly
00:59:02
um yeah right so yeah yeah Break Even
00:59:04
roughly so there's a real question mark
00:59:06
on this business and businesses like
00:59:08
this that go private where if you
00:59:10
actually cut the op-x and you cut the
00:59:11
salaries and you cut the head count but
00:59:13
you have to find new ways to pay people
00:59:15
because you've been paying them with
00:59:16
stock in the past how do you kind of
00:59:18
bridge that Gap and I think that's
00:59:19
probably a little bit of the balance and
00:59:21
the Art of what these guys do well
00:59:22
chamoth if I may can you explain to the
00:59:24
audience uh what a private Equity firm's
00:59:27
expectation is in terms of return when
00:59:30
they buy a company like this and then
00:59:31
sax I saw your tweet that you want to
00:59:33
feature and you'll go next month
00:59:35
well I think it's changed over time and
00:59:37
this is what's so powerful about the
00:59:39
private Equity industry
00:59:41
um look you have to think about what
00:59:43
their incentive is because it kind of
00:59:45
guides the outs
00:59:47
um early on they were very much like
00:59:49
Venture capitalists they were out in the
00:59:52
you know edges of risk taking
00:59:55
um doing all kinds of very difficult
00:59:57
gnarly deals so if you look back in the
00:59:59
history of private Equity you know these
01:00:01
huge crazy deals like RJR Nabisco or TWA
01:00:04
Airlines were the first of the industry
01:00:07
and they reaped enormous returns but
01:00:11
there was a lot of risk and it required
01:00:13
very heavy-handed management oftentimes
01:00:15
what that meant was firing a lot of
01:00:17
people
01:00:18
over time private Equity has gotten
01:00:21
institutionalized and they don't
01:00:23
generally
01:00:26
feature themselves as a place to get the
01:00:28
best necessarily returns but they are
01:00:31
places where you can put enormous
01:00:33
amounts of money
01:00:34
where the the likelihood of loss is
01:00:37
extremely zero and you generate very
01:00:40
good rates of return
01:00:43
now again this depends on whether you
01:00:45
want to look at irr or DPI right so a
01:00:49
lot of people will Market irr
01:00:51
which you know I think is kind of like a
01:00:54
gameable metric but you know those irrs
01:00:56
can be 20 25 if you look at DPI which is
01:01:00
really how much cash you get back you
01:01:02
know private Equity firms can generate
01:01:04
one and a half to two x of the money you
01:01:06
give them
01:01:07
um but they do it consistently and they
01:01:09
very rarely lose money
01:01:11
so all of that is important into
01:01:13
understanding what's going to happen in
01:01:14
this cycle these folks are going to buy
01:01:17
a ton of these private software
01:01:20
companies
01:01:21
I think that they are going to fire lots
01:01:24
of people I think they are going to make
01:01:26
these companies run hyper efficiently
01:01:28
and they will make sure that they
01:01:31
generate that 1.2 to 1.7 x that has been
01:01:34
historical very rarely will they lose
01:01:37
money in these things by the way that's
01:01:40
going to mean that a lot of these other
01:01:41
companies will have to reset valuation
01:01:43
so you saw yesterday checkout.com went
01:01:46
from a 40 billion dollar valuation down
01:01:48
to 11.
01:01:49
you're seeing some companies only go
01:01:51
down 10 or 15 percent
01:01:54
but it's a process isn't it your mouth
01:01:55
isn't this just like what happens in
01:01:57
real estate where beginning of this
01:01:58
process yes because in in real estate my
01:02:00
understanding having lifted these boob
01:02:02
muscle Cycles is the person living in
01:02:04
the home still believes they're always
01:02:06
worth you know this incredible
01:02:07
evaluation and then the people who want
01:02:09
to buy it are like that doesn't match
01:02:11
reality and then the real estate brokers
01:02:13
go back and forth trying to get people
01:02:15
to you know go through this messy middle
01:02:17
and come to True price Discovery a
01:02:19
private company it's hard to get true
01:02:21
price Discovery until they're on the
01:02:22
brink of insolvency they don't have the
01:02:24
money right well we just got some data
01:02:26
on that actually can we bring this
01:02:27
Coulee data let's do it yeah so Cooley
01:02:31
looked at a law firm in Silicon Valley
01:02:33
yeah there are prominent Silicon Valley
01:02:35
Law Firm they looked at a thousand deals
01:02:36
over the last three quarters of this
01:02:38
year and what they saw is that your the
01:02:42
later the stage the bigger the valuation
01:02:43
Corrections the series D rounds went
01:02:45
from three and a half billion to 527
01:02:48
million that's an easy one seven percent
01:02:49
oh yeah that's an 85 drop series C went
01:02:53
from 502 million to 130 million 274 drop
01:02:57
series B went from 164 to 90. that's a
01:03:00
45 drop and then series a went from 58
01:03:03
to 45 that's only a 22 drop there's just
01:03:06
less room to compress there but the
01:03:09
point is that series B roughly a 50 drop
01:03:12
series C roughly a three-quarters drop
01:03:14
and series D roughly a um 85 yeah one
01:03:21
seventh drop so I think Founders right
01:03:23
now are they're just like a little bit
01:03:25
delusional about
01:03:27
this money they raised last year they're
01:03:29
still way too anchored on last year's
01:03:30
valuation and if only they would think
01:03:33
in terms of this Capital they raised
01:03:35
last year in terms of of its real
01:03:39
dilution in terms of what the company is
01:03:41
worth now I think they'd be treating it
01:03:43
more more precious so for example
01:03:45
for example hold on it's like they won
01:03:48
the lottery and they don't want to they
01:03:49
don't realize they won the lottery I had
01:03:51
this conversation with the founder this
01:03:52
is the only money they're ever going to
01:03:54
see is the bottom line and they're
01:03:55
spending it like they're going to win
01:03:56
the lottery every year so for example
01:03:58
we're a company yeah let's say you take
01:04:00
a company that raised 200 million last
01:04:03
year at 2 billion so it was 10 dilution
01:04:05
so in their heads they're thinking oh
01:04:07
well this isn't that expensive like 10
01:04:09
dilution surrounding era but really
01:04:12
probably the company is worth maybe 400
01:04:14
million now right because it's gone down
01:04:16
80 percent this 200 million of your 400
01:04:19
million is half the value of the company
01:04:21
yes and you're squandering it you're
01:04:23
squandering it at a rate of 100 million
01:04:25
a year so you're basically burning up 25
01:04:27
of the value your company this year and
01:04:29
then next year and then by the way
01:04:31
you're going to be in crisis after that
01:04:33
because you're probably like a lottery
01:04:34
winner buying like a giant super yacht I
01:04:36
had an observation that a lot of the
01:04:38
investors that sit on the boards of
01:04:39
these companies
01:04:42
they have an incentive to not see those
01:04:45
valuations come down too quickly do they
01:04:48
not and so there is this sort of like
01:04:50
interest in hey I don't want you to have
01:04:53
to go reprice the company or do a Down
01:04:54
Round because then my portfolio gets
01:04:56
written down and then I'm in the middle
01:04:58
everyone's always in the middle of a
01:04:59
fundraising cycle with LPS and then I'm
01:05:01
going to have a tough conversation with
01:05:02
melp it's about my my value so do you
01:05:05
not see vces and investors playing an
01:05:08
active role in trying to keep the
01:05:10
valuations propped up to some extent
01:05:12
particularly where they have big markups
01:05:14
hundreds either by extending Bridge
01:05:16
rounds or doing other sorts of you know
01:05:19
uh look nobody nobody likes to go
01:05:22
through a Down Round and that includes
01:05:23
Founders and existing investors in the
01:05:25
company that being said we're not
01:05:27
talking here about new financing
01:05:29
conversations what we're talking about
01:05:30
is advice that is happening in board
01:05:34
meetings and you know maybe other VCS
01:05:37
aren't pushing as hard as we are but the
01:05:39
advice I'm giving in board meetings is
01:05:40
what I'm telling you probably quickly
01:05:42
today which is this is the last money
01:05:44
you'll be able to raise on attractive
01:05:46
terms if at all you need to treat it
01:05:48
much more preciously the world has
01:05:50
fundamentally changed and by the way we
01:05:52
haven't even gotten into what's coming
01:05:54
the demand contraction that's coming
01:05:56
next year explain what demand contract
01:05:59
construction is for the audience please
01:06:00
thank you okay look there's going to be
01:06:01
three major sources of slowdown for
01:06:04
software companies next year number one
01:06:06
new business is going to dry up
01:06:09
companies are just going to be spending
01:06:11
a lot less money next year because
01:06:12
they're all cutting costs so you should
01:06:15
expect your new business to be roughly
01:06:16
50 of what it was next year it'll be 50
01:06:20
of what it was last year that's my rule
01:06:23
of thumb for most companies new business
01:06:24
down 50 number two churn is going to be
01:06:27
higher we haven't seen that much logo
01:06:29
churn yet but next year a lot of
01:06:31
companies are going to start going out
01:06:33
of business and it's going to happen
01:06:34
over the next two years so you're simply
01:06:36
going to see logo churn rates say among
01:06:39
small businesses go from like a
01:06:41
historical enormous fifteen percent to
01:06:43
maybe 25 or 30. in other words your
01:06:46
customer the logo
01:06:49
yes that's what a logo means yes yes
01:06:53
logo churn means the entity doesn't
01:06:55
exist then you've got
01:06:57
seat contraction which is these
01:06:59
companies are not hiring as fast in fact
01:07:01
they're doing layoffs so they're simply
01:07:03
not going to buy as many seats of your
01:07:05
software as you need to in the past for
01:07:07
the last decade we've had a Tailwind an
01:07:10
enormous Tailwind for software companies
01:07:11
of seed expansion which is every year
01:07:14
your existing customers would buy more
01:07:15
seats of your product for their new
01:07:17
employees now they're actually going to
01:07:19
have fewer employees or maybe headcount
01:07:21
freezes so they're actually buying by
01:07:24
the way if you if you take all those
01:07:26
three things the deal of the century was
01:07:29
figma selling to Adobe for 20 billion
01:07:31
because if you take those three things I
01:07:34
mean oh my God they just absolutely top
01:07:37
ticked before any of this stuff was no
01:07:39
totally so today Adobe could probably
01:07:41
buy this thing for like seven billion
01:07:43
instead of 20 billion so does that mean
01:07:46
they try to do a breakup fee and get out
01:07:48
of the deal
01:07:49
I don't know if I was figma I'd try to
01:07:52
close this thing ASAP and get that money
01:07:54
yeah yeah yeah you're right about that
01:07:56
and by the way what I'm seeing from
01:07:58
Founders is that they still want to grow
01:08:01
100 plus over the next year the problem
01:08:04
is that the headwinds are going to be
01:08:06
intense so if if you're applying a plane
01:08:08
and the headwinds are extremely intense
01:08:11
and you try to maintain your speed
01:08:12
you're going to burn an enormous amount
01:08:14
of fuel you're going to be incredibly
01:08:15
head efficient it's better to basically
01:08:18
just moderate your speed let the
01:08:21
headwinds basically pass we're going to
01:08:23
have major economic headwinds for the
01:08:24
next four to six quarters call a year
01:08:26
and a half
01:08:27
it's okay to have a slower growth rate
01:08:30
preserve your cash don't burn up your
01:08:32
fuel bunker down so what we're trying to
01:08:34
do down the hatches we're trying to give
01:08:36
permission to our Founders to grow at a
01:08:38
slower rate because they feel this
01:08:40
enormous pressure from their VCS to grow
01:08:42
at at insane rates can I build on this I
01:08:45
think Friedberg said it very well the
01:08:47
scan in venture capital is demonstrated
01:08:49
in the following chart this is using
01:08:51
Cambridge and our friend Brad gerstner
01:08:53
helped put this together so what is this
01:08:55
this goes back all the way to 1997 and
01:08:59
the gray bar
01:09:00
is what
01:09:02
Venture capitalists share with their
01:09:05
limited partners
01:09:07
as to how well they are doing what's the
01:09:09
top quartile of interest and this is the
01:09:11
top 25 okay so this is this is a venture
01:09:14
capitalist and you know our our returns
01:09:17
have been consistently top quartile so
01:09:18
instead of cherry picking anybody else
01:09:20
I'll just use us but it could be Sequoia
01:09:22
Benchmark you name it we will go back
01:09:24
we're in there launch you would go back
01:09:26
to folkscraft we'll go back to folks and
01:09:28
say hey guys the total value of our
01:09:30
portfolio is three times your money in
01:09:33
1997's vintage okay it it was uh four
01:09:37
times your money in the 2010 vintage
01:09:39
feels really good but again the job of
01:09:42
the venture capitalist
01:09:44
is to convert the gray bar
01:09:48
into the purple bar and historically
01:09:51
there's been a Decay so for every dollar
01:09:54
of gray bar that you show you typically
01:09:57
only get 73 cents actually returned to
01:09:59
people okay
01:10:02
the valuations that you get when you
01:10:05
sell your company or goes public end up
01:10:07
being 73 of what you've marked at the
01:10:10
peak what you said they were exactly
01:10:11
right exactly right and the actual value
01:10:15
of this purple bar going back you know
01:10:18
30 years is 1.7 x so just to put
01:10:22
numerical numbers on this if you were a
01:10:25
venture capitalist you would raise a
01:10:27
hundred dollar fund
01:10:28
at the peak
01:10:30
you would actually show that that
01:10:32
hundred dollars became 200 and about 28
01:10:35
dollars
01:10:36
but when when push came to shove and
01:10:38
when it was all said and done you would
01:10:40
return 170 dollars back to your
01:10:42
investors that's the rough equation
01:10:45
so what's the problem well the problem
01:10:47
as you can see in this church is right
01:10:50
around 2015.
01:10:52
which is all of a sudden you know what
01:10:55
we've started to see are these
01:10:57
continually elevated
01:11:00
gray bars yes this stuff is worth seven
01:11:03
times six times five times
01:11:06
but we have not seen the purple bars
01:11:09
catch up now some people will say well
01:11:10
yeah but you have to give it time and
01:11:12
you know this is
01:11:16
and all you need to do is do what's
01:11:18
called a regression and you need to
01:11:20
regress these things to the mean and
01:11:22
make the following assumption
01:11:24
assume for a second that this time is
01:11:27
not different
01:11:28
assume that these historical averages
01:11:31
2.2 x 1.7 x holds
01:11:34
well that's what the the black line here
01:11:37
shows you can calculate the area above
01:11:40
the curve as the value at risk right the
01:11:43
amount of money we will destroy because
01:11:46
of all these shenanigans that Friedberg
01:11:48
just talked about propping up marks not
01:11:50
willing to look at actual market
01:11:52
clearing prices
01:11:53
well if you do the math the sum of the
01:11:56
area above this black line is almost a
01:11:59
trillion dollars around the world and it
01:12:01
is about 600 billion dollars for U.S
01:12:04
Venture capitalists
01:12:06
this is the dynamic that the private
01:12:08
Equity industry is going to prey on so
01:12:10
if you saw Tomo Bravo just close to 32
01:12:12
billion round you know Vista is raising
01:12:14
a 20 billion dollar round everybody's
01:12:17
stepping into Tech they are going to
01:12:19
destroy those gray bars would you
01:12:20
describe that as bottom feeding no no
01:12:23
they are they are the rational actor
01:12:25
yeah okay who is finding the true market
01:12:27
cleaner and I will say this I think the
01:12:30
private Equity industry is unbelievably
01:12:32
precise and talented in being
01:12:35
dispassionate and telling us what these
01:12:37
things are they're Cut Throat they're
01:12:39
logical no no it's not hot they're just
01:12:42
opportunity for the private Equity
01:12:43
industry is going to be created by
01:12:45
profligate Founders and look you could
01:12:47
blame VCS for the high marks last year
01:12:49
as well they were profligated too but
01:12:51
look if you're a Founder if you don't
01:12:54
start acting in a more Capital efficient
01:12:56
way and preserve your cash your company
01:12:58
is ultimately going to be owned by a
01:13:00
private Equity Firm and they're going to
01:13:01
make all the money well here's another
01:13:02
because because when you sell to them at
01:13:05
a low price price all you're going to
01:13:07
end up doing is paying back the
01:13:08
liquidation preference and then that
01:13:10
private Equity Firm that was willing to
01:13:12
do or less but that private Equity Firm
01:13:15
will be willing to do what you were not
01:13:16
willing to do which was simply act cut
01:13:19
your burn cut your costs and act in a
01:13:21
more Capital efficient way and they will
01:13:23
end up making all the upside for your
01:13:25
decade of hard work because you got
01:13:27
basically addicted to venture capital
01:13:29
and the high evaluations and refused to
01:13:31
again adjust to the regime I'll give you
01:13:35
an alternative I'll give you an
01:13:36
alternative the alternative is that the
01:13:38
majority of Acquisitions made by private
01:13:40
Equity firms are not actually peer
01:13:42
Acquisitions they're bolt-on
01:13:44
Acquisitions meaning that these are
01:13:46
companies that are added to existing
01:13:47
platforms that they own so this
01:13:49
acquisition they're doing of Koopa I
01:13:51
think it's very likely over the next
01:13:52
couple of years you will see like the
01:13:54
Playbook and private Equity includes not
01:13:56
just cost cutting but also Synergy
01:13:58
building and they typically do bolt-ons
01:14:00
and add-ons and this happens across all
01:14:02
private Equity platform deals of new
01:14:04
products and services that can be be
01:14:06
sold through the existing sales channel
01:14:08
the existing customer base and as an
01:14:11
add-on to the existing service or
01:14:12
product that's already offered so one of
01:14:14
the fee one of the things that I think
01:14:16
you may see in Silicon Valley over the
01:14:18
next couple of years is a
01:14:19
rationalization away from funding
01:14:21
feature companies and thinking much more
01:14:23
carefully about what can be true
01:14:24
Standalone product companies sure and
01:14:26
many of these companies that have raised
01:14:28
a ton of capital and have gotten crazy
01:14:30
valuations at the end of the day they're
01:14:33
more likely better equipped to be a
01:14:34
feature of another platform than they
01:14:37
are to be a standalone platform company
01:14:38
of their own and that's where the
01:14:40
majority of these Acquisitions will
01:14:42
likely end up going in in the private
01:14:44
Equity landscape and they will be
01:14:45
vacuumed up and attached to existing
01:14:48
platforms that these private Equity guys
01:14:49
are building out and by the way just
01:14:51
look as an example at what Oracle did
01:14:52
over the years what Salesforce did over
01:14:54
the years what Google did so many of
01:14:56
these companies sold on acquisitions by
01:14:58
bolt-on acquisitions by building a
01:15:00
second Channel building a platform and
01:15:02
then um adding on top of that and I
01:15:04
think that's a lot of these guys are
01:15:05
going to try and mimic two critical
01:15:06
points number one what about the bottom
01:15:09
75 percent of VCS oh wait if you show
01:15:11
that chart just for one more second I
01:15:13
just want to remind everybody that is
01:15:15
the absolute cream of the crop VCS are
01:15:18
the best these are folks I mean again
01:15:20
I'll just say uh Sequoia Benchmark we've
01:15:23
consistently thank you launchcraft these
01:15:25
are these are top returns thank the Lord
01:15:28
what about the bottom 75 they're not
01:15:30
gonna be able to raise funds man it's
01:15:31
over a lot of these people who raise
01:15:33
first time funds in the last three or
01:15:34
four years also it's also the companies
01:15:36
because like like it's like the the
01:15:39
today is the most now is the moment for
01:15:42
the sober founder and the sober venture
01:15:44
capitalist to sit and say what is the
01:15:46
real valuation what do we need to do to
01:15:48
make sure that this company has a chance
01:15:50
because what Zach said is so true
01:15:52
otherwise all these profit dollars will
01:15:55
be made by the private Equity Fleet in
01:15:57
order to win today you're gonna have to
01:15:59
grind you're gonna have to work 50 60
01:16:01
hours a week you're gonna have to be
01:16:04
absolutely embrace the age of austerity
01:16:05
and you're gonna have to focus on your
01:16:08
customer your product and your bottom
01:16:10
line the Age of Excess is over if you're
01:16:13
not working 50 60 70 hours a week you're
01:16:15
not going to cut it in Silicon Valley
01:16:16
also key second Point profligate
01:16:19
extravagant or wasteful in the use of
01:16:21
resources just so we get the word of the
01:16:23
day from David sacks that's David Sax's
01:16:25
word of the day after a very powerful
01:16:27
bull
01:16:29
that went Craig did you see the Tremont
01:16:31
Boulevard
01:16:32
well we've all went uh we went viral
01:16:36
this is I think elon's biggest uh
01:16:39
non-obvious impact In This Moment Jay
01:16:41
towel here's your uh one answer to your
01:16:43
question about what happens to the the
01:16:44
bottom
01:16:46
75 percent of venture firms it's
01:16:49
equivalent to what happens with the you
01:16:51
know kind of this is the bottom of the
01:16:53
top the slide that I just shared it's
01:16:55
the one we looked at a few weeks ago and
01:16:56
I keep referring to it because it's just
01:16:58
such a staggering like demonstration of
01:17:01
what people call the power law which is
01:17:03
how you know kind of excess returns
01:17:05
accumulate to minority of Investments so
01:17:08
just a few Investments make up the bulk
01:17:10
of value that the you know market cap of
01:17:14
43 percent
01:17:15
of companies that have gone public since
01:17:18
2020 is 750 billion dollars the market
01:17:23
cap of 300 the other 300 is only 26
01:17:26
billion dollars and the cash that went
01:17:28
in to the 750 billion dollars is 136 and
01:17:32
the cash yet went into the 26 is 107.
01:17:35
and so the cash that went in to generate
01:17:37
that 26 billion that 107 that's your
01:17:40
bottom 50 percent and the top 50 percent
01:17:43
put in 136 to make 750 and I think it
01:17:46
gets even narrower As you move further
01:17:48
up to that top quartile so you know it's
01:17:51
just I can tell you what LPS are saying
01:17:52
because it's a hard business this is
01:17:55
this is the companies that went public
01:17:56
so this is also of the top company of
01:17:59
the top funds and the top companies that
01:18:01
were actually able to IPO and so it
01:18:03
highlights how much of a power law
01:18:05
actually plays through and so the
01:18:07
majority of these companies as in chamac
01:18:09
even in your chart you show the top
01:18:11
quartile the bottom uh 75 percent or the
01:18:14
bottom 50 I've looked at this data as
01:18:16
well of those various vintages or below
01:18:18
1.0 they lose money for their LPS
01:18:21
consistently and it's just it's a cycle
01:18:23
and so what ends up happening is the
01:18:24
next Generation comes through nlps they
01:18:27
make a portfolio of bets and they hope
01:18:29
that they make enough bets in the right
01:18:30
VCS that their portfolio generates
01:18:33
greater than you know market returns
01:18:34
greater than College fifteen twenty
01:18:36
percent Target fifteen percent Target
01:18:38
um but they're gonna expect that the
01:18:40
majority units I have an LP of report
01:18:42
I'm I'm out there raising launch fund
01:18:44
four right now and I moved from like the
01:18:45
accrediteds the individual investors say
01:18:47
that oh yeah because you're yeah yeah so
01:18:49
I'm I'm publicly erasing it and I've
01:18:51
moved on from Individual investors
01:18:54
45 million dollars in commits after five
01:18:56
webinars amazing now I'm talking to you
01:18:58
no it was amazing it's just 506c is
01:19:01
going to change the entire industry
01:19:02
letting the the you know the masses have
01:19:05
some access to this capital and this
01:19:07
opportunity accredited cubis is going to
01:19:09
change the world I believe do you have
01:19:11
to do deal with everyone one of them or
01:19:13
is it easy to administer it's incredibly
01:19:15
complex because you have a large number
01:19:17
of people and they all want to talk to
01:19:18
me so I did webinars five webinars and
01:19:21
it resulted in 100 commits hundreds of
01:19:23
commits for 45 million dollars you'll be
01:19:25
able to get all those Capital
01:19:26
commitments drawn down when you need to
01:19:28
like you have to go ping a couple
01:19:30
hundred people and get them all the wire
01:19:31
money you'd have more operations people
01:19:33
and we only do four we we let them one
01:19:36
thing one thing you may want to do is
01:19:37
like for for these smaller slugs is you
01:19:40
can pre-wire you can set up an escrow
01:19:42
account where you pre-wire 100 of the
01:19:43
capital yes and then you also don't have
01:19:45
to you take it down when you're going to
01:19:47
deploy it so you keep your irr correct
01:19:48
so we're actually looking into those
01:19:49
Solutions I'll talk to you offline but I
01:19:51
just did my first two meetings with
01:19:53
endowment since cetera fund of funds the
01:19:56
entire discussions right now are around
01:19:58
what is your secondary strategy
01:20:01
how are you getting in earlier not later
01:20:04
and how are you building a larger
01:20:06
position it is and even like some of the
01:20:08
QPS who are sophisticated and are you
01:20:10
know are in over 10 Venture funds the
01:20:13
entire discussion governance of these
01:20:14
companies
01:20:15
are you taking board seats or not how
01:20:18
early are you getting in and building a
01:20:19
larger position over 10 percent and
01:20:22
what is your secondary strategy when are
01:20:24
you going to start taking some chips off
01:20:25
the table so the and and I gotta say if
01:20:27
you're an LP who didn't sell into the up
01:20:30
Market at all uh and you're on your
01:20:32
first fund you know and you had all
01:20:34
these great marks and they're getting
01:20:35
they're coming crashing down they're not
01:20:37
going to deal with you they just have
01:20:38
too many options of top phones in the
01:20:40
course I don't think they've they've
01:20:41
started to come down yet I don't think
01:20:43
we know what the top quartile is really
01:20:45
going to look like over these last few
01:20:47
years I think that's going to take four
01:20:49
or five years to really sort out yeah of
01:20:50
course yeah um so I think explain why
01:20:52
chamoth just so people understand yeah
01:20:54
well I think I think that there are lots
01:20:57
of valuations
01:20:59
um that have supported huge tvpis
01:21:04
these you know paper gains that have
01:21:07
allowed Venture funds to raise
01:21:08
enormous amounts of incremental capital
01:21:11
and new funds
01:21:13
and so they are going to try to wait as
01:21:16
long as possible before they're held
01:21:18
accountable for that
01:21:19
and the best way to do that is to not
01:21:21
change the valuation
01:21:22
and so it will happen slowly it'll be a
01:21:25
trickle of these things
01:21:27
um and I think that takes probably four
01:21:30
or five years for it to really sort
01:21:31
itself out but in the meantime companies
01:21:34
will still need to get financed
01:21:35
companies will still need to get built
01:21:37
that's why I think like the public
01:21:40
markets I think what Sac says is true
01:21:43
giving us a signal of what these true
01:21:44
market clearing prices are will
01:21:46
eventually slip into these you know
01:21:48
series D or E companies because the
01:21:50
Venture capitalists who has now taken
01:21:53
some big write Downs in one part of
01:21:55
their portfolio I suspect will now be
01:21:57
very open to selling to private equity
01:21:59
for another part of their portfolio so
01:22:00
that they can return Capital totally
01:22:02
totally agree yeah it's going to be
01:22:05
rough out there you guys uh watched
01:22:06
White Lotus yeah it's just started
01:22:09
season one I'm uh it's a third episode
01:22:11
in okay what a treat we wouldn't say
01:22:13
anything but how great was a season two
01:22:15
uh oh the rap was awesome it's just
01:22:18
incredible the last the last two
01:22:20
episodes are extraordinary yeah
01:22:22
just finished watching all of handmaid's
01:22:25
still which is that is a [ __ ]
01:22:28
stressful show uh it's like it's like
01:22:31
you're putting in work when you're done
01:22:32
those episodes you're like oh emotional
01:22:35
labor you know when they said this
01:22:36
emotional labor watching that show is
01:22:38
like oh my God it could could it could
01:22:40
not be more sadistic and insane uh it is
01:22:43
brutal uh but you can't look away
01:22:46
incredibly well done uh all right listen
01:22:48
this has been an amazing episode and
01:22:52
this is news for the other besties
01:22:54
Friedberg and I have been secretly
01:22:56
collaborating no we have come to a plan
01:23:01
we're working on a joint plan for all in
01:23:03
Summit 2023 because we are both helping
01:23:06
each other out on secret projects I'm
01:23:08
ready to tip guys I love it the tip
01:23:13
we don't need you I'm a permanent no
01:23:16
perfect that's all that's fine we know
01:23:18
that I love that I have sex as my anchor
01:23:20
on this one I can always float back that
01:23:22
way this thing could flip but Friedberg
01:23:24
and I I'm like octopus
01:23:28
in this case but power and influence
01:23:35
Friedberg had so much of a good time at
01:23:38
all in Summit 2022 that his hatred of my
01:23:42
producer fate is less than his Joy from
01:23:44
the event and we are collaborating on
01:23:47
yeah super gut yeah I have made up for
01:23:51
my producer's faith by using super gut
01:23:53
and becoming
01:23:55
a big problem I've used the promo codes
01:23:57
he paid you for that that's the quid pro
01:24:00
club oh yes yes
01:24:03
no conflict no interest
01:24:09
the only the only person that you've
01:24:12
been taking money from is SPF I mean
01:24:14
pretty much anybody else oh by the way
01:24:17
can I point out on the most loathsome
01:24:20
person in Tech
01:24:24
[Music]
01:24:41
I only want the bracket do not mention
01:24:44
the pockets we're not giving them any
01:24:45
just black out that uh in post I want
01:24:49
you to black out I don't want to give
01:24:51
these guys any credit so here we go the
01:24:53
worst person in
01:24:56
techs we wouldn't say it's a b podcast
01:24:58
that's run by literal socialists oh well
01:25:01
look Jamal's got a very tough draw I
01:25:03
mean of course to SPF yeah
01:25:07
versus
01:25:18
in the most hated person inside by one
01:25:21
percent that's [ __ ] who Andy Jesse
01:25:24
is he is a complete gentleman Andy jassy
01:25:28
is delightful
01:25:30
human compared to Andrew Jackson just
01:25:33
inspires that is I want a recount
01:25:37
I want to recap this is election
01:25:39
interference union busting this is
01:25:41
election interference something you're a
01:25:44
specialist in I guess is worse to be a
01:25:46
union busting Amazon CEO than a
01:25:48
reactionary conservative investor yeah I
01:25:51
don't get it this is ridiculous I just
01:25:54
want to point out that the biggest
01:25:56
travesty here
01:25:58
is that I did not make the list there
01:26:01
are things you know what these guys are
01:26:02
trolling me
01:26:03
these guys shout out to producer Nick
01:26:06
who just retreated this
01:26:08
but basically you basically picked the
01:26:10
what is it the 30 most relatively
01:26:13
well-known people in Tech that's what
01:26:14
tilts Jake Cal the most this is terrible
01:26:16
worst person in Tech I don't make the
01:26:18
list I'm gonna double down this year I'm
01:26:20
constantly kowtowing to the media you're
01:26:22
you're right you're right I need to be
01:26:24
horrible
01:26:26
I need to be a worse human like you sex
01:26:29
I'm gonna try my best this year to work
01:26:31
against humanity and society and be more
01:26:34
loathsome than you I'm really going to
01:26:36
redouble my efforts obviously I can't
01:26:38
catch up with Jamal you buy into all
01:26:39
their phones you're too kind I got a big
01:26:41
heart I care I have empathy I know my
01:26:44
empathy but here's the problem these
01:26:46
guys left me off on purpose
01:26:49
between Andreessen and Bill Gates
01:26:52
oh wait driesen that's a lock that's
01:26:55
interesting of course oh interesting
01:26:57
questions
01:26:58
a16 co-founder and man of terrible teams
01:27:01
Market treason is a world-class [ __ ]
01:27:03
poster Bill Gates is hiding somewhere
01:27:06
nobody Bill Gates is doesn't tweet
01:27:09
Marcus recent blocks unblocks he [ __ ]
01:27:12
posts with the best of them he's up
01:27:14
there I mean that guy's a dark meme Lord
01:27:18
any other I mean I really I really
01:27:20
sympathize with each month that you got
01:27:22
your ass handed to you there that's just
01:27:24
that's like going up against the Dream
01:27:25
Team hold on hold on slow down bro
01:27:27
you're not even letting us read these
01:27:28
things all right okay Twitter former
01:27:31
idiot CEO versus Airbnb CEO making
01:27:39
oh my God that's so well written Ryan
01:27:42
hold on this weekend he's a great guy
01:27:44
guy who really tried to make us believe
01:27:47
web3 was going to happen versus World
01:27:49
coin and open of course Chris Dixon wins
01:27:51
much more loathsome than Sam Altman
01:27:53
right okay
01:27:55
guys listen Freeburg you didn't even
01:27:57
come I want to just congratulate
01:27:58
freeberg
01:28:00
on an amazing the best science Corner
01:28:03
ever an amazing product in super gut
01:28:06
that has helped me lose weight I feel
01:28:08
great and four uh you know recovering
01:28:11
from whatever illness you had all right
01:28:13
everybody I love you Besties
01:28:15
shout out to uh David sacks love you
01:28:18
guys and we'll see you all next time on
01:28:20
the all in podcast love you besties love
01:28:23
you guys bye
01:28:25
[Music]
01:28:32
we open source it to the fans and
01:28:35
they've just gone crazy
01:28:36
[Music]
01:28:45
besties
01:28:48
[Music]
01:28:59
it's like this like sexual tension that
01:29:01
they just need to release somehow
01:29:08
where did you get Mercies
01:29:13
[Music]
