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Tucker Carlson: ICE Raids, LA Riots, Strong Economic Data, Politicized Fed, War with Iran?

June 13, 2025 / 01:42:28

This episode covers topics such as nicotine pouches, immigration protests in Los Angeles, and the political dynamics surrounding the Trump administration. Guests include Tucker Carlson, Chimath Palihapitiya, and David Sacks.

The discussion begins with a light-hearted conversation about nicotine pouches, where the guests share their experiences and opinions on the effects of nicotine. Tucker Carlson describes the sensation as a "zen experience" and discusses the potential for addiction.

The conversation shifts to the immigration protests in Los Angeles, sparked by ICE raids. The guests debate the implications of these actions, with Carlson expressing concern over federal enforcement of immigration laws and the potential for civil unrest.

Throughout the episode, the guests analyze the political landscape, including the Biden administration's handling of immigration and the public's perception of the Democratic Party. They discuss the historical context of immigration policy and the challenges faced by both parties.

Finally, the episode touches on economic issues, including the impact of tariffs and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Carlson emphasizes the need for a clean and orderly environment in American cities as a measure of national health.

TL;DR

Tucker Carlson discusses nicotine pouches, LA immigration protests, and the political landscape surrounding Trump's administration and economic policies.

Video

00:00:00
Can I ask a question about the nicotine
00:00:02
pouches? Yes. Does it melt in your mouth
00:00:05
or do you have to spit it out later? You
00:00:07
can spit it out. You can swallow it or
00:00:09
you just savor it. I mean, you throw it
00:00:10
in like a you would a dip of tobacco.
00:00:13
Okay. But you just let it sit there and
00:00:15
then it suses your nervous system with
00:00:17
life-giving nicotine and it it really
00:00:20
does feel like the hand of God is
00:00:22
massaging you. But does it feel like the
00:00:24
high of smoking a cigarette? It's
00:00:27
simultaneously, if you can imagine the
00:00:30
Zen paradox, higher alertness
00:00:32
accompanied by deep relaxation.
00:00:36
So, you you really are No, no, it it's a
00:00:39
zen experience. You're like cat-like in
00:00:42
your readiness, but you're fully And how
00:00:46
long does it last? I always have one
00:00:48
going. Sometimes if things are, you
00:00:50
know, if I need it, I'll I'll put
00:00:51
another one in. So, I've got 18 milligs
00:00:54
of nicotine. But that gives me an unfair
00:00:56
advantage. You're banging 18 milligrams.
00:00:59
Woo. That's impressive. I don't like to
00:01:01
because it everybody else kind of
00:01:03
recedes into the background and I become
00:01:05
this kind of colossus when I do that and
00:01:07
I feel guilty about it. Hubris is
00:01:09
inevitable at that point. So I usually
00:01:10
keep it to one. I mean I could use a new
00:01:13
addiction. Oh yes. What's the gateway
00:01:15
drug level? Uh what would you prescribe?
00:01:17
sits between caffeine and they sell a 3
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mig but you know there's a transition
00:01:23
like all all great addictions like it's
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not instant you you do vomit at first
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but then but then your body acclimates
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it's kind of like heroin in that way you
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know like when you oric you just you got
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to power through IA you heat twice and
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then you're addicted and then
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enlightenment
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[Music]
00:01:45
let your winners
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[Music]
00:01:48
Rainman David
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and we open sourced it to the fans and
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they've just gone crazy with it. Love
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you.
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[Music]
00:02:01
All right everybody, welcome back to the
00:02:03
number one podcast in the world after
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Tucker Carlson's amazing podcast. That's
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right. Tucker is back here on the All-In
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podcast with Chimath Polio Hapia, your
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chairman dictator and the Zar David
00:02:17
Saxs. Not from the White House, he's
00:02:18
from the suite, but he's here back on
00:02:21
the program looking great. Look at the
00:02:22
collar. Brion. I ordered three or four
00:02:24
bronies after last week's show, guys. I
00:02:28
did. I'm getting in the Brony. Well, I
00:02:29
have the all- in expense accounts now.
00:02:31
What' you call it? Brony. Brion. He'll
00:02:33
be paying for it over 72 months. 72
00:02:36
monthly payments. the layaway. You as a
00:02:39
firm or CLA. Pray for that.
00:02:42
Hey, uh Tucker, last time you were here,
00:02:46
uh you famously famously gosh, we been a
00:02:49
year of feedback on your last
00:02:50
performance. Thank you for coming back.
00:02:52
We got a lot of crazy feedback from the
00:02:54
private equity housewives, but I got
00:02:56
more feedback.
00:02:58
They love me. But you know what? You're
00:03:01
in you're in deep. you're in deep
00:03:02
because I I'm here in LA and the Los
00:03:05
Angeles studio wives group is really
00:03:09
really pissed off at you because they
00:03:11
feel that they're the problem. They feel
00:03:12
they're a much bigger problem than
00:03:13
private equity housewives. So, Hollywood
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Studio heads wives versus private equity
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wives. I know some of them um and
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they're absolutely a bigger problem, but
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there are fewer of them. God, it's kind
00:03:25
of hard to get critical mass. Yeah,
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exactly. They're they're a smaller
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threat. They're kind of an elite unit.
00:03:31
You know what I They're like Delta
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Force. Got it. They have less money,
00:03:34
too. You know, they don't get as much in
00:03:35
the divorce as these private equity
00:03:37
wives. Got it.
00:03:40
So, they they're coming in like a SWAT
00:03:42
team. If you want to send them in to
00:03:44
deal with a very specific issue, great.
00:03:47
But they're not going to cause as much
00:03:48
bedum globally as the private. They
00:03:51
cause a lot of misery though, as one
00:03:52
McKenzie Bezos. Exactly.
00:03:55
Oh my god. All right. Listen, let's get
00:03:59
a plug in here. All-in summit, fourth
00:04:01
year. Tucker's coming this year, I hope.
00:04:03
Uh, September 7th to 9th in Los Angeles.
00:04:05
The goal, have the world's most
00:04:07
important conversations, yada yada yada,
00:04:10
blah blah blah. Apply for a ticket.
00:04:13
Allin.com/ yada yada yada or
00:04:15
allin.com/summit
00:04:16
to apply for a ticket. Freeberg is out
00:04:19
this week. So, Tucker is here and my
00:04:21
lord, a lot going on in the news. Let's
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start with the immigration protests
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slash riots slash ice actions in Los
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Angeles. I'm actually here last Friday.
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Protests broke out after ICE raided Home
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Depot, a fashion wholesaler. In total,
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44 people were arrested by ICE. 10 times
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as many, 400 and counting, from the
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protests. They even ran into uh ICE that
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is ran into a strawberry field in Oxnard
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uh to just randomly pick people up. It
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seems uh at least a half dozen Whimos
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were vandalized and burned. 20 plus
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businesses looted
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and uh Whimo narrowed their area and
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it's spiked to 30-minute wait times. Uh
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so that's a first world problem. Riders
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throwing bricks, Molotov cocktails,
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shooting fireworks at law enforcement.
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Completely unacceptable. Two men were
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charged with throwing molotov cocktails
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at officers.
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Trump deployed the National Guard, 2,000
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at first, then 4,000 apparently.
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And uh apparently there's a battalion of
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Marines here, 700 of them. Karen Bass
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instituted a curfew downtown LA 8:00
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p.m. to 6:00 a.m. And uh prosecutors,
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federal prosecutors that is, are trying
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to identify hundreds of people. Nuome
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Bass denounced the raids obviously and
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uh they're blaming Trump for escalating
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the situation. Trump and members of the
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White House responded by calling out
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California's weak leadership and now we
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have protests popping up everywhere
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else. New York, Chicago, Austin, DC.
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Tucker, you grew up in Southern
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California, I think. You I did. Yeah. LA
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and La Hoya. I mean, are these riots
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more or less than a Lakers championship?
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Uh how concerning are they to you? Who's
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to blame?
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Well, as measured by violence, they're
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less profound than, you know, what
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happened in 2020 after George Floyd
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died. They're way less dangerous than
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say the Watts riot um or the Rodney King
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riots in LA, but they're much more
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profound. I mean, it it really does.
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They're certainly a bigger deal than
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anything that happened in Fort Sumpter,
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for sure, which kicked off the bloodiest
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war in American history. The federal
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government has as a core duty uh the
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right and responsibility to enforce
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immigration law and police the borders.
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That's what the government is. That's
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what the federal government is really.
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And so if you contest that, it is like a
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threat to disunion fundamentally. I
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mean, I think there's a lot at stake.
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And we reached this point because a
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series of paradoxically weak federal
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governments allowed sanctuary cities to
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continue literally for decades. each one
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its own form of insurrection against the
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central government. And maybe maybe you
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don't believe that the federal
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government has a right to pass laws
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restricting immigration. It's not in
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charge of the integrity of the borders.
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You know, that that's a kind of
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philosophical or constitutional case I
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guess you could make. But most people
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accept that those are federal duties.
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And once you accept that, you can't
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allow states or municipalities to flout
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the law any more than you could allow
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Central High School in Little Rock to
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keep black students out or whatever. I
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mean, certainly federal troops have been
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called in for much less. And I think the
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longer this continues,
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the greater the threat of disunion, the
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greater the threat of reaching a point
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where you I don't know, you can't drive
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from New York to LA. We take a lot for
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granted in the country. And the main
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thing we take for granted, I think, is
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freedom of movement between states. But
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you could easily imagine that ending
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like soon in the same way that you can't
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drive from, and I cuz I've tried from S.
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Apollo to to Rio in Brazil, pretty first
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world country. It's too dangerous to do
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that. You could easily see that
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happening here. So, I think once the
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Trump administration commits to putting
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down the riots, to enforcing federal law
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by force, it kind of can't back away
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from that. Like I, you know, and that
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raises a question, who's funding these,
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etc., etc. And I think it's a really
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interesting question. We should find
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out. I don't think the only arrest
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should be on the scene. I do think the
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drug cartels are involved flexing their
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authority in California. They have a lot
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of control in California as I'm sure you
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know, etc., etc. But the bottom line
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question is, does the federal government
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have a right to enforce federal
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immigration law? Yes. And if states are
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out of compliance with that, it doesn't
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have any option but to force the issue.
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Traumatha,
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when you see this amount of
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paramilitary, milit literal military
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coming in, the dragging of, you know,
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handymen from Home Depot, as opposed to
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the strategic way this started, which
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was, hey, we're going to go after the
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felons, we're going after the gang
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members, the really bad folks. And then
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this time now it seems like, hey, we're
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just going to roll up to a farm. We're
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going to roll up to a Home Depot. Just
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grab everybody. We'll figure it out
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later if their, you know, papers check
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out or not. Are you in favor of the,
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hey, all 20 million got to go? I'll call
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that the Steve Bannon position. Or are
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you into in the 5% of alien, illegal
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aliens who are criminals, they need to
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go, but maybe a path to citizenship for
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the other 19 million. I think the
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president was asked a version of that
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question today, Jason. And I think what
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he said is there are people that have
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worked for example on farms for 20 to 25
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years or they work in the leisure
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industry. And he said we have to take a
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common sense approach to those people
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because if you do take those people then
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it's creating a vacuum where these jobs
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could get filled by folks that are
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essentially criminals or other things.
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So I believe that that's a reasonable
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starting point. What I would say is
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where do we go?
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There are seven and a half
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legal, not illegal, legal immigrants in
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the United States waiting for their
00:10:06
adjustment of status.
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Those are doctors, those are lawyers,
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those are scientists, those are family
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members of existing American citizens.
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There's an entire body of people that I
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think we have to recognize that have
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been waiting in line and their first act
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in America was a legal action to come in
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and contribute. And every time we start
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this conversation,
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we go to the plight of people whose
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fundamental first action was an illegal
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action without understanding that there
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has to be actually a more balanced
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approach. So yes, I think the president
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is right. common sense for the folks
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that have now been here for a very long
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time. But we have to prioritize the
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people that started by saying we're
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going to wait in line properly and then
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there's people in the middle. But I
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think that there needs to be a way to
00:10:59
give those folks a chance to get their
00:11:01
affairs in order, but they should be
00:11:04
playing by the rules. Got it. And I
00:11:06
think it's unfair to reward not playing
00:11:08
by the rules. Okay. So some middle
00:11:10
ground between the extreme all 20
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million got to go and the
00:11:15
one example that I saw online Jason was
00:11:18
give folks a stipend and a year. Yes.
00:11:21
The stipen's been out there for a while
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right to get their affairs in order and
00:11:25
then Kaizen said that right Kaizen said
00:11:27
that exactly and I think I think
00:11:29
Kaizen's clip is actually the most the
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most rational for the middle chunk.
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But I would really focus on these legal
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folks and say what are we doing about
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those folks whose first action was to
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raise their hand, stand in line and say
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I want to contribute by the rules that
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America sets. So reward them and then
00:11:49
punish the illegal folks coming in.
00:11:51
Adjudicate everybody else or adjudicate
00:11:53
everybody else. Love it. Okay, Sax, I'm
00:11:55
going to play two clips here to level
00:11:56
this up and we can kind of look at this
00:11:57
in a multi-deade way. Here's Reagan on
00:12:00
immigration and then followed by
00:12:01
Clinton. It is bold men and women
00:12:04
yearning for freedom and opportunity who
00:12:06
leave their homelands and come to a new
00:12:09
country to start their lives over. They
00:12:11
believe in the American dream. And over
00:12:14
and over they make it come true for
00:12:15
themselves, for their children, and for
00:12:17
others. But their greatest contribution
00:12:19
is more than economic because they
00:12:22
understand in a special way how glorious
00:12:25
it is to be an American. They renew our
00:12:28
pride and gratitude in the United States
00:12:29
of America, the greatest, freest nation
00:12:32
in the world, the last best hope of man
00:12:36
on earth. All Americans, not only in the
00:12:39
states most heavily affected, but in
00:12:41
every place in this country, are rightly
00:12:43
disturbed by the large numbers of
00:12:45
illegal aliens entering our country.
00:12:48
That's why our administration has moved
00:12:50
aggressively to secure our borders more
00:12:52
by hiring a record number of new border
00:12:54
guards by deporting twice as many
00:12:56
criminal aliens as ever before. We are a
00:12:59
nation of immigrants, but we are also a
00:13:01
nation of laws. It is wrong and
00:13:04
ultimately self-defeating for a nation
00:13:06
of immigrants to permit the kind of
00:13:08
abuse of our immigration laws we have
00:13:10
seen in recent years, and we must do
00:13:13
more to stop it. Okay, Sachs, my
00:13:16
question for you is on a party basis,
00:13:19
this seems to have flipped. We talked
00:13:21
about this before on the program,
00:13:22
Republicans wanted immigration, NAFTA,
00:13:26
legal reg uh even maybe an open border
00:13:29
where workers could go freely back and
00:13:31
forth from Mexico, kind of like the EU.
00:13:33
And uh Clinton
00:13:35
wanted to deport folks so that Americans
00:13:37
get could have more jobs and that wages
00:13:40
would go up. Now, it seems to have
00:13:41
flipped. Obviously, you're inside the
00:13:43
administration. Disclaimer, disclaimer,
00:13:45
whatever you however you want to
00:13:46
disclaim this. What's in the best
00:13:47
interest of all Americans going forward?
00:13:50
Because we have an interesting wrinkle
00:13:52
here which I'm sure you've been thinking
00:13:54
about as the AI ZAR which is jobs are
00:13:57
going away in a lot of key fac.
00:14:04
So you have to contend with what the
00:14:06
American people want and AI and job
00:14:10
destruction or displacement that could
00:14:11
be caused by it. So what are your
00:14:13
thoughts generally and and I obviously
00:14:15
you work in the administration so I want
00:14:16
to give you that chance to explain
00:14:18
personal versus administration position.
00:14:21
Well my reaction is that you're doing
00:14:23
everything possible to avoid the fact
00:14:25
that LA is on fire right now and law
00:14:27
enforcement is being assaulted by riers
00:14:30
who look like an invading army. They're
00:14:32
rioting under a foreign flag. Yeah.
00:14:34
You're showing clips of Reagan and
00:14:36
Clinton. What the hell does this have to
00:14:37
do with the fact that there are riots in
00:14:40
LA right now?
00:14:42
Oh, I was trying to This is the issue at
00:14:43
hand. Oh, I was trying to level up the
00:14:45
conversation to talk about the big
00:14:46
picture of immigration, but if we want
00:14:48
to get down changing the conversation, I
00:14:49
think the No, I I'm I'm trying to
00:14:51
expand. But Hold on, hold on, hold on.
00:14:53
If you're going to accuse me personally
00:14:54
of like having a scale here, I'm happy
00:14:56
to discuss law enforcement January 6th
00:14:59
or this one. I believe you should not
00:15:01
beat up cops. I come from a family of
00:15:02
cops. You know that we've been friends
00:15:04
for over 20 years. My family is cop. My
00:15:07
family is firefighter. We don't approve
00:15:10
of throwing moral tough cocktails at
00:15:13
cops. Period. Full stop. I am insulted
00:15:16
if you even insinuate that. I didn't
00:15:18
insinuate that, but we have not
00:15:20
discussed the issue at hand, which is
00:15:22
you can feel free to go is burning right
00:15:25
now. By the way, if you don't want to
00:15:29
get deported, try not rioting under a
00:15:31
foreign flag. I mean, it's just a stupid
00:15:34
way to advocate for your position if
00:15:36
that's what it is. But that's that's the
00:15:38
topic of the week right now. I don't
00:15:39
know why you're trying to uplevel this
00:15:41
and talk about what Reagan thought 40
00:15:44
years ago. It's just not relevant to
00:15:46
what's happening in the news today. Now,
00:15:48
you asked what is the quote unquote
00:15:49
American position if there is one. I can
00:15:51
give you some polling on that. So, first
00:15:53
of all, voters approve of the ICE raids
00:15:55
in Los Angeles by 55 to 37. That's plus
00:15:58
18. Voters support the administration's
00:16:00
effort to deport illegal immigrants by
00:16:02
5837. That's plus 21. They approve of
00:16:05
Trump deploying the National Guard by 20
00:16:08
points, 5939.
00:16:10
Only 36% say the administration's gone
00:16:12
too far, while 55% say it's about right
00:16:15
or too little. So at plus 19. And even
00:16:19
the liberal uh Quinnipiac poll found
00:16:22
that Democrats approved numbers are at a
00:16:24
new all-time low of minus 49, whereas
00:16:28
Trump is now up to plus six in Morning
00:16:32
Consult and plus eight in Rasmusen. So,
00:16:35
I think the American people approve of
00:16:37
what the administration is doing here.
00:16:39
And just to fact check, one thing you
00:16:41
said in the introduction, you mentioned
00:16:42
this fashion wholesaler that along with
00:16:44
Home Depot, you made it sound like these
00:16:46
raids were just happening willy-nilly,
00:16:48
like there's some big roundup where they
00:16:50
were just busting into places and seeing
00:16:51
who's illegal, checking people's papers.
00:16:53
That's not what happened. This fashion
00:16:55
wholesaler is a moneyaundering operation
00:16:57
for the Mexican cartels. This is
00:16:59
according to Tom Hman. and many
00:17:01
employees there are involved in very
00:17:03
serious crimes, drug gang and violence,
00:17:06
murder, child rape, and there were
00:17:08
warrants for their arrest. So, the way
00:17:10
that this whole thing started is ICE was
00:17:13
serving criminal warrants
00:17:15
that state and local authorities have no
00:17:17
right to resist. That's how this
00:17:19
started. It wasn't random roundups.
00:17:22
Okay. Okay. I was just there's reporting
00:17:23
that Steven Miller specifically said
00:17:25
just he was disappointed with the number
00:17:28
of people being round up and deported
00:17:31
and he said just go to a farm just go to
00:17:34
Home Depot. So I mean that's the
00:17:36
reporting. Okay. Well, I have not been
00:17:38
able to confirm that reporting. I don't
00:17:39
I personally don't believe it. I think
00:17:41
that what Tom Holman said is that they
00:17:42
were serving criminal warrants. That's
00:17:45
how this started. Okay. Now, I think
00:17:48
that part of the reason why the
00:17:49
Democrats are so unpopular here is
00:17:52
they're basically perceived as excusing
00:17:54
the lawlessness by saying that it's only
00:17:56
happening because the Trump
00:17:57
administration's daring to enforce the
00:17:59
law. And so once again, they're siding
00:18:02
with lutters, arsonists, and violent
00:18:04
criminals just like in 2020. And who's
00:18:07
who's siding? This is Democrats. Okay?
00:18:09
Because the Democrats, they said no
00:18:12
violence. So that was many times Gavin
00:18:14
Newsen said no violence. Karen Bass said
00:18:15
no violence. They they've been tweeting.
00:18:17
They also Okay, great. They also are
00:18:20
saying that this is all Trump's fault
00:18:21
that Trump started this. Bassid Newsome
00:18:23
said that the National Guard wasn't
00:18:25
needed because LAPD had everything under
00:18:26
control. But LAPD was at first told to
00:18:29
stay out of the protests and when the
00:18:31
violence erupted and that forced him to
00:18:34
step in, they were according to their
00:18:36
own chief of police, Jim McDonald,
00:18:37
quickly overwhelmed. So this is
00:18:39
McDonald. He said, quote, "We are
00:18:42
overwhelmed. Tonight we had individuals
00:18:44
out there shooting commercial grade
00:18:45
fireworks at our officers that can kill
00:18:47
you. They'll take backpacks filled with
00:18:48
cinder blocks and hammers, break the
00:18:50
blocks, and pass the piece around to
00:18:52
throw officers and cars, even at other
00:18:54
people. So according to their own chief
00:18:56
of police, they needed the help from the
00:18:58
National Guard. So that's the real issue
00:19:00
here is that Bass and Nuome had this
00:19:03
policy of of doing nothing and then
00:19:05
engaging in denialism, pretending like
00:19:07
there wasn't a problem, and then when
00:19:09
the problem got too big to ignore, they
00:19:10
pretend like it's Trump's fault for
00:19:12
causing it. Tucker, what's your thoughts
00:19:14
on should the Trump administration have
00:19:18
had such a show of force? If the reports
00:19:20
are true that they're randomly going,
00:19:23
you know, to a Home Depot, if that is
00:19:24
true, is that the right approach right
00:19:27
now or is it, you know, a little too
00:19:29
provocative and they should do this more
00:19:30
strategically in your personal opinion?
00:19:33
Uh, well, considering that we have
00:19:35
American troops in over a 100 bases
00:19:37
around the world in countries most
00:19:38
Americans can't identify, it's a little
00:19:41
weird to be shocked when on that rare
00:19:43
occasion they're used to keep the second
00:19:45
biggest city in the country from burning
00:19:47
down. It seems like a the point of
00:19:50
having a military is to keep foreigners
00:19:53
from burning your cities. And these are
00:19:54
foreigners as David said. They're
00:19:56
foreign nationals committing crimes
00:19:59
beneath a foreign flag. So that if there
00:20:01
was ever a time to use the US military,
00:20:02
it's then. And as noted earlier, you
00:20:05
can't allow the states to be flagrantly
00:20:07
out of compliance with federal
00:20:08
immigration law. And I have to say the
00:20:10
core question for me as an American is a
00:20:14
really a fairness question. So the idea
00:20:15
that, you know, people are breaking the
00:20:17
law, but it's cool because they're doing
00:20:18
essential services, like, well, you
00:20:20
know, I pay a lot in taxes. Maybe I pay
00:20:22
80% and that feels like enough to me.
00:20:23
And hey, man, do you really have a right
00:20:25
to collect the the last 20%. I mean,
00:20:27
isn't 80% enough? Like, back off. I
00:20:30
don't have the right to say that as an
00:20:32
American citizen to an IRS agent, I wind
00:20:33
up in jail if I do that or if I break
00:20:35
any law, by the way. It's a rule of law,
00:20:37
critically important. No, but not only
00:20:39
that, it's a double standard. And and I
00:20:41
live in a place where a lot of the
00:20:42
population subsists on food banks and
00:20:44
where there very few jobs and it really
00:20:47
is one of those places that NAFTA
00:20:48
destroyed whose economy NAFTA destroyed
00:20:51
and to see in the place where I live
00:20:53
immigrants get preference on housing on
00:20:56
jobs which is actually true and I know
00:20:58
that liberals watching be like that's
00:20:59
not really true. It is true actually and
00:21:01
I and I wonder cuz the real number is
00:21:03
not 20 million it's closer to 50
00:21:05
million. I think that's true uh illegals
00:21:07
in the United States. Clearly, they
00:21:09
can't all be deported by ICE. But I also
00:21:12
think if you have a system that hands
00:21:14
out
00:21:16
meaningful grants in effect, cell
00:21:18
phones, travel vouchers, housing
00:21:20
vouchers, free education, food stamps to
00:21:23
people who are here legally or who are
00:21:24
here legally as refugees, you are going
00:21:27
to draw the world's poor. And I think
00:21:29
it's fair to ask, do we want that? How
00:21:30
do we benefit from that? And are we
00:21:32
giving more to foreigners than we're
00:21:34
giving to our own citizens? And the
00:21:35
answer is yes. And like how dare you at
00:21:38
a certain point like you get a
00:21:39
revolution if you keep doing that.
00:21:40
That's too much. It's too offensive. Got
00:21:42
it. So I think we all agree no violence
00:21:44
on cops, shut the southern border and
00:21:47
giving crazy amount. Let me just think
00:21:49
the National Guard should never brought
00:21:51
in. You let me ask questions, don't you?
00:21:53
Do you think the National Guard should
00:21:54
be brought in? Yes or no? If the local
00:21:57
police can't handle what's going on, of
00:22:00
course they should be brought in. Sure.
00:22:02
I believe that during
00:22:04
are questioning that decision. You ask
00:22:06
me the question. I believe they should
00:22:07
have been brought in for January 6th for
00:22:09
BLM or for the LA riots if the local
00:22:13
police can't contain them. 100% I
00:22:15
believe the National Guard should have
00:22:16
been brought in for January 6th when
00:22:18
they were beating cops. I believe they
00:22:19
should be brought in now if cops are
00:22:21
being beaten. And I believe they should
00:22:22
have been brought in during BLM when
00:22:24
cops were being beaten. I am pro cop. I
00:22:27
come from a family of cops. So you can
00:22:29
ask me the questions. So Newsome and
00:22:31
Bass are out of line when they say that
00:22:33
the National Guard should not have been
00:22:34
brought in. I think well number one I
00:22:37
think they should call the National
00:22:38
Guard if they can't control it. I'm not
00:22:40
But that's their criticism of Trump is
00:22:42
that he called in the National Guard.
00:22:44
You agree that that was necessary. It's
00:22:45
obviously necessary. Just look at the
00:22:47
TV. The still on fire. The cops are
00:22:49
completely overwhelmed.
00:22:51
By the way, I find it comical that Well,
00:22:55
let me stretch this one point then you
00:22:57
can speak. Yeah. I find it comical that
00:22:59
permission the Massachusetts governor
00:23:01
called up the National Guard when Dantis
00:23:03
sent remember when he sent the 50
00:23:05
migrants over to Arthur's Vineyard. Yes.
00:23:07
And they all freaked out and they
00:23:09
literally called the National Guard in
00:23:11
because 50 migrants all of a sudden had
00:23:12
been flown into Marthur's Vineyard. They
00:23:14
did. Yeah. Okay. But was that you can
00:23:16
have you can have them or because there
00:23:18
was riots? Well, that was when Dantis
00:23:20
was making a point about but that was to
00:23:23
process them. They weren't rioting on
00:23:24
Martha's Vineyard. These were just
00:23:26
nonetheless the National Guard was
00:23:27
brought in and you know you can have
00:23:30
thousands of people though riding in LA
00:23:31
but somehow the National Guard shouldn't
00:23:33
be brought in. I we we're in agreement.
00:23:35
So you can try to force me to disagree
00:23:36
with you but I'm in agreement. Anytime
00:23:38
the cops are overwhelmed I think the
00:23:39
National Guard should be brought in.
00:23:40
Period. Full stop. So we're in agreement
00:23:42
on that. What I'm trying to get to is
00:23:44
Tucker, if you believe there's 50
00:23:45
million people, let's say the numbers 30
00:23:48
million. We we split the difference
00:23:49
between the two, 35 million, whatever it
00:23:51
is. My question for you, how many should
00:23:54
be deported by ICE at $20,000 a person,
00:23:58
which is the estimate that, you know,
00:23:59
both sides seem to agree is what it's
00:24:01
going to cost. Should we deport a
00:24:02
million? Should we deport 10 million?
00:24:04
And then how, Tucker Carlson, would you
00:24:06
deport them?
00:24:08
Well, I think the goal has to be
00:24:12
full compliance with the law for
00:24:13
everybody within our borders, citizen or
00:24:16
foreignb born, illegal, refugee, green
00:24:19
card holder. If you're in the United
00:24:21
States, you obey our laws. And if you
00:24:23
don't, we make a good faith effort to
00:24:26
enforce them despite how powerful the
00:24:29
political block may be. 50 million. So,
00:24:32
so of well, of by definition, or else
00:24:34
why wouldn't I apply that same standard
00:24:36
to my taxes, right? So, but how do you
00:24:38
do it? Citizenship. Yeah. Let's get into
00:24:40
that. Yeah. Right. So, well, that's a
00:24:41
hostage situation. It's like we've got
00:24:43
50 million here already. We've lied
00:24:44
about the number for 30 years now. Wow.
00:24:46
It's 50 million or 35 million. We need
00:24:49
them. everyone gets a path to
00:24:50
citizenship,
00:24:52
you know, that's a kind of crime
00:24:53
actually. But the first step, and the
00:24:56
phrase has been devalued, but
00:24:57
self-deportation,
00:24:59
if you have a system where people come
00:25:02
to the United States to make their own
00:25:04
way and take advantage of the freedoms
00:25:06
offered in the economy, uh, they're
00:25:08
allowed to participate in the economy,
00:25:10
then I think you could have a system
00:25:11
where people really admire immigrants in
00:25:13
the way that they did when I was growing
00:25:14
up and that I I still do in some ways. I
00:25:16
mean, some of my favorite people are
00:25:17
immigrants and they all tell the same
00:25:19
story. Came here with nothing, built
00:25:20
this great life, but you make everybody
00:25:23
cynical and you sort of destroy the idea
00:25:26
of the virtue of immigration when you
00:25:29
hand people stuff and give them
00:25:31
preference when they arrive. And we
00:25:33
don't talk enough about what that
00:25:35
actually looks like. We spend a lot more
00:25:37
than 20 grand a person right now in
00:25:39
subsidies to people who aren't even
00:25:41
allowed to be here. They pay into social
00:25:44
security too, right? to the tune of 100
00:25:45
million years. Oh, okay. Right. No, no,
00:25:48
that's just what was reported by our
00:25:50
government. If we want to get conspiracy
00:25:51
corner, that's I think those are fake. I
00:25:53
think those are fake numbers. Look, does
00:25:54
anybody really believe that 50 million
00:25:57
illegals is a net benefit to the US
00:25:58
economy? Are you serious? Have you been
00:26:00
to our cities? No, of course not. It's
00:26:03
not. I actually probably a large number
00:26:06
of them are a net benefit because
00:26:07
they're working in jobs that Americans
00:26:09
don't want to take and we're at 4%
00:26:10
unemployment. So, who's going to take
00:26:12
all those jobs if they get deported?
00:26:14
Chucker, aren't But weren't you just
00:26:15
saying that we're on the cusp of a of a
00:26:17
labor revolution where some you 20% of
00:26:19
American jobs are going away in 2 years?
00:26:21
It could be. Yeah. So that's the that's
00:26:23
the nuance in this discussion is 5 years
00:26:25
ago we might be dealing. It's like a
00:26:28
brick wall we're about to hit at high
00:26:29
speed. And I don't understand having
00:26:31
accustomed an entire generation of tens
00:26:34
of millions of immigrants to government
00:26:35
handouts what the social fabric is going
00:26:38
to look like when that stops. Yeah. Can
00:26:40
I say something cuz I I Tucker is saying
00:26:43
something really important which I agree
00:26:44
with. What should immigration be in a
00:26:48
highly developed nation like the United
00:26:50
States and my perspective is you have to
00:26:54
come and say well what is the goal? I
00:26:56
think the goal should be to maintain
00:26:58
supremacy. The United States is the most
00:27:00
vibrant economy in the world. It's the
00:27:02
most important military power in the
00:27:04
world. It's the most technically
00:27:05
advanced entity in the world. If we do
00:27:09
not focus on maintaining our supremacy,
00:27:13
I don't think any American wants to go
00:27:16
through the process of going from first
00:27:18
to not first.
00:27:20
And if you look back in history at all
00:27:22
of the other countries that have had to
00:27:24
go through that transition, that is
00:27:26
where revolutions and chaos happen. So
00:27:30
we should avoid that. So where does
00:27:32
immigration play a role? It needs to
00:27:34
play a role first and foremost in
00:27:36
technical, military, and economic
00:27:38
supremacy. The problem, as Tucker says,
00:27:41
is when you have five or six times the
00:27:43
number of illegal immigrants as legal
00:27:46
immigrants, all of a sudden the idea of
00:27:48
using immigration as a cream skimming
00:27:50
technique to reinforce the most capable
00:27:54
people in the world to come here goes
00:27:56
away because you can't have that
00:27:58
conversation. We have people languishing
00:28:01
for 10, 15, 20 years on visas, okay?
00:28:05
Their kids age out. They all go back to
00:28:07
India and other places.
00:28:10
Why? Because we can't focus on that
00:28:12
conversation, Jason, because we're
00:28:14
focused on how do we give amnesty to
00:28:16
folks whose initial action was breaking
00:28:18
the law. Absolutely correct. And this is
00:28:21
where the whole immigration conversation
00:28:24
devolves. We are missing the bigger
00:28:26
picture and you need to deal one second.
00:28:29
You need to deal with the illegal
00:28:31
immigration thing in an extremely
00:28:34
foundational way where you can defend
00:28:36
the decision. You started illegally
00:28:39
and you have to now go and conform to
00:28:42
the law which is where I'm trying to
00:28:43
steer this discussion. Number one, we
00:28:45
all agree on closing the border. It
00:28:46
seems like there's a a breaking
00:28:48
consensus here. Tucker wants to
00:28:50
eventually deport everybody. You want to
00:28:52
do something in the middle like Trump.
00:28:54
Sax, I'm not sure what your personal
00:28:55
position is or if you want to give it.
00:28:56
Do you feel we should try to have a path
00:28:58
to deport as many of these 20 30 million
00:29:01
as possible or do you believe we should
00:29:02
have a path towards uh citizenship for
00:29:06
them? What is your personal belief or do
00:29:08
you want to not get Well, I I remember
00:29:09
when you asked that question to now vice
00:29:12
president JD Vance at all summit and he
00:29:14
said that you basically address that
00:29:17
problem the same way that you eat a
00:29:18
sandwich, which is one bite at a time.
00:29:21
So that makes sense to me. If there's 20
00:29:23
million illegals, you start with the top
00:29:25
million who are violent criminals and
00:29:27
gang members and you deport those. And
00:29:31
that is what ICE was doing. They were
00:29:33
serving criminal warrants. And then
00:29:35
after you successfully do that, then you
00:29:36
see where you're at and you can address
00:29:38
the next bite of the sandwich. That
00:29:39
makes sense to me. Now, look, I I think
00:29:42
that we're not really addressing a
00:29:44
really core part of the issue here,
00:29:46
which is for a couple of decades now,
00:29:50
conservatives were demonized, and Tucker
00:29:53
in particular, I think you were
00:29:54
demonized for warning about the policies
00:29:59
that have created the mess that everyone
00:30:01
can see on TV right now. And that mess
00:30:05
is we have a large unassimilated
00:30:07
population of military-aged males who
00:30:10
are basically rioting right now under a
00:30:12
foreign flag as if they were foreign
00:30:15
invaders. We basically have allowed a
00:30:17
separatist movement into the United
00:30:18
States. That's what it looks like to me.
00:30:20
And I remember when Tucker was warning
00:30:22
about the the policies that might create
00:30:24
this on his show for years, you know,
00:30:27
virtually alone, probably alone on Fox
00:30:29
News, you know, you were called a
00:30:31
racist. this was great replacement
00:30:32
theory, blah blah blah. How can everyone
00:30:35
not look at what's happening on TV right
00:30:37
now and say Tucker was right? You know,
00:30:39
that was really dumb. And look, I say
00:30:41
this as someone from a family. I'm I'm
00:30:44
one of the people that Ronald Reagan was
00:30:45
talking about. You know, my family and I
00:30:46
came over here. We're immigrants, but we
00:30:48
came over here to assimilate. You know,
00:30:49
we believe in the melting pot. Be
00:30:51
careful. You might get canceled for
00:30:52
bringing up the melting pot. The melting
00:30:54
pot's good. I mean, I think that was the
00:30:56
classic American model. Melting is
00:30:58
totally good. You speak. I'm just saying
00:31:00
you could cancel. That's what you're
00:31:02
supposed to do. Like why do why would
00:31:04
anybody I came here because I wanted to
00:31:06
be American and everything that American
00:31:08
meant. If I was bigger, I would have
00:31:09
played football. You know, like there's
00:31:11
all these things that I would have done
00:31:12
to assimilate more and more. I believe
00:31:14
in the culture of the United States.
00:31:16
That's why people should come, right? So
00:31:19
we came here, we assimilated, you know,
00:31:21
high skill immigrants, didn't have a
00:31:23
lot, but had good education and willing
00:31:25
to assimilate. That's very different
00:31:27
than what you're seeing on TV right now.
00:31:29
And again, if the people on TV just
00:31:31
wanted to protest immigration policy in
00:31:34
the way that you're talking about, I
00:31:36
mean, you're describing it in this like
00:31:37
very nice gental way, they would be
00:31:40
peacefully protesting under an American
00:31:42
flag, saying, "We want to be here. We're
00:31:44
willing to contribute." I think the
00:31:46
issue was that's not what's happening. I
00:31:48
I you can see that, right? I mean, they
00:31:50
they look like foreign invaders. I would
00:31:52
say, by the way, this is like the
00:31:53
dumbest PR that, you know, if this
00:31:57
debate is really about immigration, this
00:31:59
is like the dumbest way for them to
00:32:00
present their side of the argument.
00:32:02
Yeah. Because who wants to keep in this
00:32:04
country a large unimilated population
00:32:07
that is proud to march, not just march,
00:32:10
but actually protest and riot and burn
00:32:12
and assault under the flag of another
00:32:15
nation. I would say dollars to donation.
00:32:17
Majority of the people who are doing the
00:32:19
looting and rioting are not actually
00:32:21
immigrants because they have the ability
00:32:23
to be deported. The people who are doing
00:32:25
that are the bad actors that we saw
00:32:26
during BLN. The bad actors that we saw,
00:32:29
you know, in LA when the Lakers win.
00:32:31
I've lived here for a decade and I am
00:32:34
here right now. I can tell you it's
00:32:35
contained. And those 80 90% of those
00:32:37
people are not the immigrants. The
00:32:38
immigrants are hiding right now for fear
00:32:40
of being deported. But let's sort of
00:32:43
talk about do the path. Well, where do
00:32:47
you where do you guys want to go with it
00:32:48
here? I mean, uh, I can give you my
00:32:49
opinion if you want. Well, Tucker, I
00:32:50
mean, like I I don't know. I mean, I
00:32:52
don't want to speak for you, but I mean,
00:32:53
I I I I do think that like Tucker should
00:32:55
feel vindicated on this issue for
00:32:57
speaking about so many years. You feel
00:32:59
vindicated?
00:33:01
I mean, I never doubted it. I grew up I
00:33:03
was born in California in 1969 and I my
00:33:06
family got there in 1850. I have some
00:33:08
sense of what the state was like um
00:33:10
certainly through my childhood and it
00:33:12
was an it was idyllic and it's it's it's
00:33:15
not you know the rich areas are great is
00:33:17
great is still great I think I mean
00:33:20
there are great Mount Shast is great
00:33:22
lots of great places in California um
00:33:24
but fundamentally the state is a slum
00:33:26
Latin American country and immigration
00:33:28
did that and I say that as someone who
00:33:30
is pretty pro-immigrant actually my best
00:33:32
friend's an immigrant I mean I I've
00:33:33
always admired liked immigrants um I'm
00:33:36
hardly anti-immigrant or anti
00:33:37
immigration, but the way we did it
00:33:39
destroyed the state. Immigration is what
00:33:41
made California into a slum, and there's
00:33:43
kind of no way around that. And so,
00:33:45
that's not an argument against all
00:33:46
immigration. I I'm not making that
00:33:47
argument. I don't feel that way. But,
00:33:50
uh, it's an argument against what we did
00:33:51
in California. And rather than learn
00:33:54
from that, we're doing it in every other
00:33:56
state. And I don't know why. And I
00:33:58
think, you know, if the other side had a
00:34:00
reasonable argument, they would profer
00:34:02
it. But instead, they call you names and
00:34:04
try to turn you into some kind of
00:34:06
thought criminal or whatever. I don't
00:34:07
care obviously. Um but it's a it's a
00:34:11
sort of measure of how um little they
00:34:14
have to say in response. They're not
00:34:15
actually trying to make the country
00:34:16
better. That's kind of the main thing. I
00:34:18
have always thought immigrants are great
00:34:20
because they did it make the country
00:34:21
better, right? I mean I I think that's
00:34:23
demonstrable. But the people pushing our
00:34:25
current policies don't have that as a
00:34:27
goal. This is a kind of punishment for
00:34:30
something. And a lot of it's ethnic
00:34:32
actually. It's a it's a kind of attack
00:34:34
on the people who were born here. I
00:34:36
don't know where that hostility comes
00:34:37
from. You can feel it though. And I
00:34:40
think it's foolish to deny it. That is a
00:34:42
motive. They're trying to hurt the
00:34:43
people who live here. And I again, I
00:34:45
live in a place currently where I see
00:34:46
that happening. Um, and it drives me
00:34:49
totally bonkers. And the last thing I'll
00:34:50
say is if you think the way we once did
00:34:53
immigration was good and a lot of
00:34:55
immigrants are awesome people and I do
00:34:57
think that this is discrediting all
00:35:00
immigration 100% and it's turning people
00:35:02
into pretty radical immigration
00:35:05
restrictionists are like look I don't
00:35:06
want any more immigrants. Yeah, you know
00:35:09
that's inevitable. Um but it's sad to
00:35:11
see it.
00:35:13
By the way what you're saying is is the
00:35:16
most true for immigrants. Legal
00:35:18
immigrants look at illegal immigration
00:35:20
even more negatively than nativeborn
00:35:23
Americans, which makes sense, right? I
00:35:25
mean, they waited in line and other
00:35:26
people didn't. You would be really upset
00:35:28
if somebody cut the line. Jason, what do
00:35:30
you think? Obviously, there's a lot of
00:35:31
emotion around this issue. I think
00:35:32
numbers help and I always look to see
00:35:35
what is the consensus amongst the group
00:35:37
here and amongst, you know, Americans.
00:35:40
Everybody wants the border closed. Trump
00:35:42
won on that. So, okay, we all agree the
00:35:44
border should be closed. I think 80 90%
00:35:45
consensus in that 80 90% of Americans
00:35:49
think we should deport violent
00:35:50
criminals. Okay, we got consensus there.
00:35:52
So then what's left is what do we do
00:35:54
with highskilled recruiting? I like to
00:35:57
use the word recruiting and we had that
00:35:58
discussion with President Trump here. He
00:36:00
promised to put a green card on every
00:36:02
degree. I agree with him on that. I
00:36:05
think we should be recruiting at least a
00:36:07
million or two million amazing people
00:36:09
per year. 1 to two million amazing
00:36:12
people. We should match that to what the
00:36:13
needs of the country are. If we need
00:36:15
energy, if we need doctors, we should
00:36:17
match that. Where we probably disagree
00:36:19
is I think the Democrats and the
00:36:22
Republicans share equally in this issue
00:36:25
that was created that Tucker pointed
00:36:26
out. Yes, there are 40, 30, 50, who
00:36:29
knows what the exact number is. That's
00:36:30
part of the problem. Here's a chart we
00:36:31
made. This just shows you under each of
00:36:35
the last, you know, uh 50 almost 50
00:36:38
years of of presidents, how many people
00:36:41
net uh immigrated to the country. And as
00:36:43
you can see, you know, it's been pretty
00:36:46
consistent.
00:36:47
You know, around 3 million per and uh
00:36:50
Clinton and Bush had a ton of
00:36:52
immigration. Both uh Bushes were paid
00:36:55
for a lot of their donations came from
00:36:58
corporates who wanted free migration.
00:37:00
America created this. Hold on. Let me
00:37:02
finish my thought. Outlier here, Jason,
00:37:04
though. Oh, well, yeah. Biden is the
00:37:06
huge outlier. We We all agree on that.
00:37:07
Biden let it go yolo. And I understand
00:37:10
people have a lot of resentment for that
00:37:11
and rightfully so. And if you bring in
00:37:13
10 million people, you're going to let
00:37:15
get a lot of bad guys. But you put this
00:37:16
all together. My belief is that this is
00:37:19
a country of immigrants and that this
00:37:21
country does great when hardworking
00:37:23
immigrants assimilate. I think we should
00:37:25
take this raw firepower of these
00:37:27
incredible immigrants who have been here
00:37:29
for decades. If you've been here for 10
00:37:30
or 20 decades, pay a fine, pay some
00:37:33
extra taxes, and we give these people a
00:37:35
path to citizenship. And we recruit the
00:37:39
top one to two million people. That's my
00:37:41
belief. You do that before or after the
00:37:43
people that have been waiting in line
00:37:44
get a fair shake. I think I would start
00:37:47
before or after. I think you have to do
00:37:49
it before because we created this. And I
00:37:51
I I know that that's not something that
00:37:53
people want to take ownership of, but
00:37:55
America created the situation. Bush
00:37:58
created it. created Clinton America.
00:38:00
Yes. The country that we live in, our
00:38:02
government allowed millions of people
00:38:04
here and the Republicans did this
00:38:07
specifically in order to get cheap
00:38:09
labor. Let me let me ask for what we did
00:38:12
with these people. Let's just say that
00:38:14
you're an international Let's just say
00:38:16
you're an international mathematics
00:38:18
olympiad winner. You get recruited to
00:38:21
come to the United States on a student
00:38:22
visa. You crush it. Let's say you go to
00:38:25
MIT and then you go and do a PhD at
00:38:28
Caltech and then you get recruited on an
00:38:30
OPT visa by Google and you're just
00:38:33
crushing. Awesome. And and you're saying
00:38:36
that that person Oh, no. Sorry. That's a
00:38:38
more subtle question. That person we
00:38:40
should recruit. As I said very clearly,
00:38:41
recruit 1 to 2 million. They're
00:38:44
currently waiting in line, Jason. Yes.
00:38:46
So, let's just So, I'm saying yes, let
00:38:48
them in. And yes, a path to who do you
00:38:50
prioritize? You have one. You can do
00:38:52
both at the same time. No, no, you
00:38:53
don't. Can of course you can we could
00:38:56
have one group recruiting a million to 2
00:38:58
million highly skilled labor highly
00:39:00
skilled individuals of the type you're
00:39:02
describing while having another group.
00:39:05
We can do two things at the same time.
00:39:06
Chimoth absolutely you can you're you're
00:39:08
giving a false question here. Then we
00:39:10
take the person who's been here for 20
00:39:12
years as a dishwasher as a nanny who has
00:39:14
been an amazing citizen who has been
00:39:16
paying into social security. give them a
00:39:18
path, a compassionate path. And we as
00:39:20
America and Americans should take
00:39:22
ownership of the fact that we allowed
00:39:24
this and the people who allowed it were
00:39:26
Republicans and Democrats. We allowed
00:39:28
these people to come in to work in our
00:39:30
restaurants and fields, which is what
00:39:32
Trump said today. Trump is in agreement
00:39:34
with me. That's not what he said. He
00:39:37
said something. He said he wants to not
00:39:39
have those people leave. It's just
00:39:41
amazing to me that on this podcast
00:39:44
during the Biden years, you were echoing
00:39:46
this party line that the videos of, you
00:39:49
know, mass migration, caravans streaming
00:39:52
across the border, going through the
00:39:53
holes in the wall. You said those were
00:39:54
videos cherrypicked by Fox News. You
00:39:57
told the party line that there was no
00:39:59
problem. Now all of a sudden, now all of
00:40:01
a sudden you're saying it was a
00:40:02
bipartisan problem. No, no, fact check.
00:40:04
I said we are we don't know because we
00:40:06
don't have the the metrics and we don't
00:40:07
have a good system, which we all agree
00:40:09
on. There's no good system. Anybody who
00:40:11
went down to the border was saying that
00:40:12
it was wide open, right? And as we got
00:40:14
that data, I said this data on the
00:40:16
ground shows we should shut the border.
00:40:19
That's always suddenly became very
00:40:20
empirical about the issue. I I've always
00:40:22
been empirical about it and I've also
00:40:24
been compassionate. This whole like both
00:40:25
sides are to blame thing kind of ignores
00:40:27
the fact that you had the Trump
00:40:28
revolution in 2016. There is some truth
00:40:30
to the idea that both parties neglected
00:40:33
the problem. If you go back far enough,
00:40:35
like you know, Tucker will remember this
00:40:36
when Bob Bartley was the editor of the
00:40:38
Wall Street Journal op-ed page, they
00:40:40
actually supported a constitutional
00:40:41
amendment in favor of open borders. I
00:40:43
mean, they really believed in this whole
00:40:45
idea of pull free trade, open borders,
00:40:49
free flow of capital and labor. Okay,
00:40:51
but that was a long time ago. And you
00:40:53
know, with the rise of Trump in 2015,
00:40:55
2016, it became a different party. Trump
00:40:59
got elected on building a wall. Yeah.
00:41:01
And what happened? The Democrats fought
00:41:03
him tooth and nail. They tied him up in
00:41:05
litigation. He was able to build
00:41:06
hundreds of miles of wall, but there
00:41:08
were uncompleted parts of it. And when
00:41:10
Biden came into office, there were large
00:41:13
pieces of the wall that were still on
00:41:15
the ground just waiting to be erected.
00:41:17
And Biden sold them off as scrap metal
00:41:18
for two cents on the dollar. Do you
00:41:20
remember this? And then Biden and the
00:41:22
Democrats proceed in favor. Hold on a
00:41:24
second.
00:41:27
Please don't frame it as I'm against
00:41:28
that. Okay, just forget about you. Just
00:41:30
you you said Democrats and Republicans
00:41:31
are a blamed for this. Not in the last
00:41:33
not in the last eight years. No. Oh
00:41:36
yeah. No. No. Biden Trump wanted a wall.
00:41:38
Yeah. Biden. Yeah. Opened up the border
00:41:41
and Democrats supported him in that and
00:41:43
they thwarted every Republican attempt
00:41:46
to close the border for three years.
00:41:48
Hold on a second. For three years they
00:41:50
gas lit and pretended it wasn't a
00:41:52
problem. Then when it became undeniable,
00:41:55
they claimed that Biden didn't have the
00:41:57
executive authority. So they would need
00:41:58
a new act of Congress. That was also
00:42:00
total nonsense. As Trump said in the
00:42:02
State of the Union, you didn't need a
00:42:04
new law. You just need a new president.
00:42:06
Look, if you want to go back 20 or 30
00:42:08
years, you can blame both parties. If
00:42:10
you want to talk about the last 8 years,
00:42:11
there's only one party to blame. One
00:42:14
party, the Democrats. And that is why
00:42:16
you look at the polling right now,
00:42:17
Democrats, their party all-time low. It
00:42:21
is, let's get the exact number, -49. 21%
00:42:24
approve of Democrats, 70% disapprove
00:42:27
because they know that Democrats cause
00:42:29
this problem and Democrats are the ones
00:42:31
denying. They're the ones basically
00:42:34
making excuses for the disorder and the
00:42:36
chaos right now. The only Democrat The
00:42:39
only Democrat who's actually talking
00:42:40
sense right now is the one with a head
00:42:42
injury, ironically, Federman. He's a
00:42:46
lone voice here. I want to pull up this
00:42:48
quote. Don't make
00:42:51
dude that's No, I mean it's amazing. No,
00:42:55
I mean it's it's kind of sad. But look,
00:42:56
I'm agreeing with Federman. Federman
00:42:58
says caveat that he hit his head.
00:43:01
I don't know what it is about Democrats.
00:43:04
I don't know what it is about Democrats.
00:43:05
It takes a head It takes a head injury
00:43:07
for them to talk sense. Okay. It's like
00:43:10
a Bullworth thing. Anyway, Federman
00:43:13
said, "My party loses the moral high
00:43:14
ground when we refuse to condemn setting
00:43:17
cars on fire, destroying buildings, and
00:43:19
assaulting law enforcement." He's
00:43:21
talking about January 6th. I unapolog
00:43:23
unapologetically stand for free speech,
00:43:25
peaceful demonstrations, immigration,
00:43:27
but this is not that. This is anarchy
00:43:29
and true chaos. So, kudos to Federman,
00:43:32
but he's the only Democrat out there.
00:43:33
He's a low voice condemning the
00:43:35
violence. And Tucker's our guest. We're
00:43:37
going to give Tucker the last word on
00:43:39
this topic before we go on to the next
00:43:41
one. And you are 100% correct. Biden 10
00:43:44
million net im immigrants and Trump 3
00:43:46
million which sounds like a lot but is
00:43:48
actually the lowest in like 10
00:43:49
administrations. The lowest since
00:43:50
Reagan. Tucker, you're our guest. Wrap
00:43:53
us up here. What should we think?
00:43:56
I think that we should measure the
00:43:59
health of a country at least in part by
00:44:00
the condition of its cities, including
00:44:02
the cleanliness of its cities.
00:44:05
And by that measure, our country is
00:44:07
collapsing. Our our cities are a
00:44:09
disaster. and the the richest part of
00:44:12
the richest cities are fine and the rest
00:44:14
of them are just absolutely awful. And
00:44:17
so I think that has got to be just job
00:44:19
one. If you want to renew the United
00:44:21
States, you have to make sure its
00:44:22
population centers are clean, safe,
00:44:25
orderly, but especially clean. There's
00:44:27
something really important and I know
00:44:29
that the left just instinctively
00:44:30
discounts that, but cleanliness is next
00:44:32
to godliness. And your city is a
00:44:35
reflection of your self-respect, how you
00:44:37
feel about your nation, your patriotism.
00:44:39
And if you allow it to become like Paris
00:44:42
or New York, covered in graffiti and
00:44:44
filth and random people from other
00:44:46
countries selling fruit on the street
00:44:48
and begging and having sex in ATM
00:44:51
vestibules and just like the whole
00:44:52
Midtown Manhattan, Central Paris
00:44:55
experience, like that's a sign your
00:44:57
civilization is going under. I think
00:44:59
it's really really important and I do
00:45:01
think you know that decay is not
00:45:03
entirely caused by mass immigration but
00:45:05
mass immigration has made it much worse
00:45:07
and I just know that from walking around
00:45:09
cuz I like to walk around cities. I
00:45:11
think it's a national emergency and the
00:45:13
riots are just the most fluid expression
00:45:15
of that. You know a burning car is
00:45:17
something you can't ignore but we do
00:45:19
ignore the condition of 6th Avenue at
00:45:21
49th Street. like how can a self or the
00:45:24
condition of Penn Station or you know of
00:45:26
our airports like how can we allow that?
00:45:29
Um so if I were in charge I mean I would
00:45:32
make you go to Dubai or Doha or Moscow
00:45:36
or some place that has a sense of itself
00:45:38
when we got soba in Tokyo remember two
00:45:40
years ago and we were talking about this
00:45:42
exact issue it just well but it's true I
00:45:45
mean Tokyo is the most radicalizing
00:45:48
experience for an American. Everyone who
00:45:50
goes there is like I can't even deal
00:45:51
with this. I'm so angry that we've put
00:45:53
up with what we're putting up with. I
00:45:54
had to talk it in. You did. Let's not
00:45:57
overthink it, I guess, is what I'm
00:45:59
saying. It's not even about the
00:46:00
Constitution. It's about litter. Yeah.
00:46:02
Okay. Tucker gets the last word on that.
00:46:04
And now David Saxs gets to take his
00:46:06
incredible victory lap. Economic data
00:46:09
has been objectively pretty great the
00:46:11
last two weeks. Tariff revenue spiked 23
00:46:15
billion in May, 2x from February. So
00:46:17
there we go. we see the impact of a
00:46:19
little bit of extra income. Inflation
00:46:22
continues to come down and uh what are
00:46:25
we at? 2.4%.
00:46:28
Across the board, there's some pluses
00:46:30
and minuses in there. We'll get into it
00:46:31
later. GDP. Okay, this is the leading
00:46:35
GDP prediction model from the Atlanta
00:46:37
Fed. Could be as high as 3.8%. Again,
00:46:40
this is a prediction for Q2. Q2 is
00:46:42
obviously not over, but this would be a
00:46:44
pretty big jump over Q1. Despite all
00:46:46
this positive data, the deficit remains
00:46:48
the sticky issue. Some of our friends
00:46:51
might have some issue with this and been
00:46:54
vocal about it. In May, the US had 371
00:46:58
billion in revenue with 687 billion in
00:47:01
spend. Not good. Big high burn rate,
00:47:03
$316 billion deficit. We paid $90
00:47:07
billion in May in interest on the debt
00:47:11
almost up to a hundred billion a month.
00:47:14
And uh there's a nice key chart uh which
00:47:17
we all like. We could double click on
00:47:18
that if anybody finds something
00:47:19
interesting in here. Here's your deficit
00:47:21
tracker. What I'll highlight here for
00:47:23
you is those first two lines 2020 and
00:47:25
2021. You got to kind of give a mulligan
00:47:27
there for the COVID years and uh purple
00:47:31
2025. We are a bit ahead of the last
00:47:34
couple of years. We're 13 our spending
00:47:37
now and you know obviously the debt
00:47:39
service is a big part of this. 13% above
00:47:41
2024, 20% above 2023 and 65% above 2022.
00:47:47
The balance sheet of the United States
00:47:50
is really bad right now. Sachs, I'm
00:47:53
going to start with you. This obviously
00:47:54
has been an emotional issue and uh oh,
00:47:57
apology. I just noticed forgot to hit
00:48:00
publish on last week's episode, but
00:48:02
let's let that go. Uh it won't happen
00:48:05
again. Sachs, what are your thoughts
00:48:07
here? Well, I mean, you'll recall that
00:48:10
back in early April, Jim Kramer
00:48:12
predicted we'd see a Black Monday in
00:48:15
response to Trump's tariffs. And that's
00:48:16
all the proof that we should have known
00:48:18
that we were about to get a bunch of
00:48:20
good economic news. Uh and it wasn't it
00:48:22
wasn't just Jim Kramer. I mean, Larry
00:48:24
Summers was on our pod with that big
00:48:26
debate that we did and he was predicting
00:48:28
doom. And what we're seeing now is good
00:48:30
economic news is breaking out all over.
00:48:32
So Q2 GDP on track for 3.8% according to
00:48:35
the Atlanta Fed. The May jobs report was
00:48:38
above expected plus 139,000. CPI, you
00:48:41
know, inflation down to 2.4%.
00:48:44
So growth is back. Inflation is low. And
00:48:47
what you saw over the last few months
00:48:49
was the elites in both parties, I'll
00:48:52
give you that, have they were
00:48:53
scaremongering on tariffs and predicting
00:48:54
doom and they've been proven to be out
00:48:56
of touch with popular sentiment and
00:48:58
reality. I mean, you don't want to spike
00:49:00
the football too soon, but things look
00:49:01
really good right now. Yeah. And I mean,
00:49:03
in fairness, when the Trump shock and
00:49:06
awe with the tariffs, he came out pretty
00:49:08
strongly, Zach, you will admit, and the
00:49:10
market did tank massively for about 30
00:49:14
days. Tucker, what's your take on the
00:49:15
economy today? This debt, does it
00:49:18
concern you? And I'm wondering what
00:49:21
because there seems to be a little bit
00:49:22
of a rift inside of the Republican party
00:49:24
on the BBB, not bill back better, but
00:49:28
the big beautiful bill. What's Tucker
00:49:30
Carlson's take? I'm curious, on out of
00:49:32
control spending, the deficit, and this
00:49:35
bill in relation to that. Well, I mean,
00:49:38
I have the world's most predictable
00:49:40
views. I believe in physics. So, you
00:49:42
know, an unpayable debt tanks your
00:49:44
country at a certain point. That was
00:49:46
pre-existing. It's accelerated as you
00:49:48
noted. I I don't know a single person
00:49:51
who's got a any kind of plan to fix it.
00:49:53
I think we're just going to ride it into
00:49:55
whatever the point of oblivion is. But I
00:49:58
would just say on tariffs, you know, my
00:50:00
you've got the reverse Kramer. David was
00:50:02
saying that's his measure of economic
00:50:05
forecasting. For me, it's the Wall
00:50:06
Street Journal editorial page. Whatever
00:50:08
they're for is poison. um generally
00:50:10
speaking and anything that drives them
00:50:12
insane is a virtue. And I just can't
00:50:16
imagine a policy more perfectly designed
00:50:20
to just make them like explode than uh
00:50:23
Trump's tariff announcement. And I and I
00:50:25
have to say, I mean, I've been kind of
00:50:27
pretty conventional Republican my entire
00:50:29
life. I remember when I decided the Iraq
00:50:31
war was a bad idea. That felt like an
00:50:34
outlaw, you know, idea.
00:50:37
What What led you to got Uh well, I went
00:50:41
to Iraq um in December of 2003 to see
00:50:44
where a friend of mine had been killed
00:50:46
and um so I was there right after the
00:50:48
invasion and I just immediately
00:50:49
recognized this is not we're we're not a
00:50:51
good colonial power because we won't
00:50:53
admit that we are. We won't admit that
00:50:54
we have an empire, therefore we can't
00:50:56
admin administer it in a rational way.
00:50:58
Um just the obvious stuff. But anyway,
00:51:00
the point is the last remaining kind of
00:51:03
unexamined orthodoxy in my head was free
00:51:05
trade. And I happened to be just by
00:51:07
chance at the White House the day of
00:51:08
that announcement. And I remember
00:51:10
thinking, man, if this works, what a
00:51:12
caper, you know? I mean, I don't know.
00:51:15
Worst case scenario in your mind of, you
00:51:18
know, this tariff negotiation.
00:51:20
Obviously, there have been multiple
00:51:22
rounds of it. I'm not gonna use the term
00:51:24
taco, but it does seem like we've
00:51:27
shifted from shock and awe to maybe like
00:51:31
kind of bore. It's kind of boring like
00:51:33
and and that does seem to be Trump's
00:51:34
approach, right? He in negotiations big
00:51:37
bang and then fall back to a reasonable
00:51:39
position. So, I think we're in the
00:51:41
reasonable position phase. What does
00:51:43
success willing? I I hope I pray that's
00:51:47
what we're seeing on Iran right now. Um
00:51:48
but you're absolutely right. I mean,
00:51:49
that's sort of the nature of
00:51:50
negotiations, of course. Um, and there
00:51:54
is nothing in writing with China, so far
00:51:55
as I know, and it'll be reassuring, I
00:51:58
think, when there is. Um, but in
00:52:00
general, we haven't seen what Jim Kramer
00:52:03
and Larry Summers predicted, and that
00:52:04
itself is amazing. It's amazing and it
00:52:07
it causes you someone like me is sort of
00:52:09
on the sidelines of the economic debate,
00:52:11
but watching carefully, it does make you
00:52:13
sort of wonder like what other absurd
00:52:16
midcentury orthodoxies about economics
00:52:19
have I internalized that just aren't
00:52:20
true, right? Cuz that was the biggest of
00:52:23
all. Tariffs are, you know, they caused
00:52:24
the Great Depression. We know that. And
00:52:27
and so what if like you can have a kind
00:52:29
of mixed approach with some trade
00:52:31
barriers that are tailored to your
00:52:33
benefit and that sort of works in a
00:52:35
longitudinal way. If that's true, holy
00:52:38
smokes. And it looks like it might be
00:52:39
true. So it's been true for the other
00:52:41
side, right? They have been doing that.
00:52:44
So if it's for China and South Korea and
00:52:47
Australia, why wouldn't it be true for
00:52:49
us? It seems like we're the sucker at
00:52:50
the poker table. Well, I think you're
00:52:52
right. I guess what I'm all I'm saying
00:52:53
I'm making a pretty pedestrian point,
00:52:55
but I can't get past it, which is this
00:52:57
is so far from what the Republican party
00:53:00
stood for 10 years ago, which was
00:53:04
neoconservative foreign policy, free
00:53:06
trade, um open borders, as as you noted,
00:53:09
maybe a little more than 10 years ago,
00:53:11
but 15 years ago. Um this is this is the
00:53:13
mirror image of it, and it just blows my
00:53:16
mind. And it's it's such a better
00:53:17
version. It's such a more reality based,
00:53:19
flexible, thoughtful uh version than we
00:53:23
had before. And I'm just really and most
00:53:24
Republicans in the Senate are not even
00:53:26
aware this is happening. They are the
00:53:28
most recalcitrant people in the world.
00:53:30
Also the dumbest. So most of them, you
00:53:32
know, don't accept any of this. But just
00:53:34
as an observer, I'm thrilled to see it.
00:53:37
All right, Chimath. Uh actually, can I
00:53:39
get Can I um Oh, yeah, sure. No, no, no.
00:53:42
I mean, I know you like to go right
00:53:43
after Tucker. It's very engaging. Oh no.
00:53:45
You got me thinking about these. Um,
00:53:47
this is his dream. When you're on, he
00:53:49
cannot in the group chat. He's so
00:53:50
excited. Tucker, when you're coming on,
00:53:52
it's 48 hours of Sax being like, "When
00:53:55
does when is the pod coming? Is Tucker
00:53:57
really coming?" That's how I feel about
00:53:59
David Saxs. Trust me, if you if you had
00:54:01
a camera at my dinner table, you would
00:54:03
hear something similar. Oh, boy. Here we
00:54:05
go. Go ahead, Sax. It's uh it's great to
00:54:07
have someone to the right of me on the
00:54:08
podcast for once. You know, it's not an
00:54:11
easy task. I we invited Alex Jones and
00:54:14
Steve Aman to have him respond.
00:54:18
Tucker got me thinking about these
00:54:19
unexamined orthodoxies. And that is a
00:54:22
good way of putting it. I mean, you
00:54:23
know, cuz I studied economics in college
00:54:25
and you know, I learned that the Smoot
00:54:26
Holly tariff caused the Great
00:54:28
Depression. And it's like in hindsight,
00:54:29
you're like, how can that even be true?
00:54:31
Like a tariff is basically a tax rate on
00:54:33
foreign goods. And you're saying that,
00:54:35
you know, increasing taxes on foreign
00:54:36
goods all of a sudden cause a great
00:54:38
depression. It doesn't make any sense
00:54:40
when you actually like just think about
00:54:42
it. Now, what caused Great Depression?
00:54:44
Well, I would say when thousands of
00:54:46
banks went under and there's no FDIC and
00:54:48
everyone just got wiped out by that and
00:54:50
it's a systemic risk. So, like one bank
00:54:52
failure leads to the next one. That's so
00:54:54
obviously what caused the Great
00:54:55
Depression is nobody had any money left.
00:54:58
They all got wiped out when all the
00:55:00
banks went under at the same time.
00:55:03
Right. Well, and then what how do we
00:55:04
take a something that happened in the
00:55:06
20s and 30s and apply it to a much more
00:55:08
dynamic world like today? It doesn't
00:55:10
make much sense. Well, I think what
00:55:12
happened is we had all these post-war
00:55:14
meaning postw World War II
00:55:15
understandings that kind of got
00:55:17
hardwired into the consciousness of our
00:55:21
intellectuals. And if you think about
00:55:24
the the era right after World War II,
00:55:26
the US was like the last great power
00:55:28
standing. Um it was us and the Soviet
00:55:30
Union, but they kind of were had a
00:55:31
different system. they were not part of
00:55:33
the um let's say the the free world.
00:55:36
They're part of this communist block. So
00:55:38
with in in terms of the the quote
00:55:39
unquote free world, we were the only
00:55:42
country that was relatively undamaged
00:55:44
and we had this giant manufacturing
00:55:46
base. And so yeah, obviously that the
00:55:48
the fewer trade barriers existed across
00:55:51
the world, the better it was for the
00:55:52
United States because it was our goods
00:55:54
and our factories that basically were
00:55:56
able to sell all over the world. And so
00:55:57
we proceeded to define a world order in
00:56:00
which we just kicked down every single
00:56:02
barrier to free trade because that's
00:56:04
what benefited us. Now, I don't know
00:56:07
that that means that that situation
00:56:09
always benefits us in all times and all
00:56:12
places. I mean, the big issue we have
00:56:14
right now is that you've got a rising
00:56:16
China and they have become the scale
00:56:18
producer in the world for all sorts of
00:56:20
goods. They now have this giant
00:56:22
industrial base that we seem to have
00:56:24
exported to them. And again, it was and
00:56:26
we exported a lot of that because of
00:56:29
this um free trade ideology that got so
00:56:32
entrenched in our thinking that we just
00:56:35
stopped thinking about under what
00:56:36
circumstances this might not continue to
00:56:38
be good for us. And so we've ended up
00:56:41
becoming dependent on them for all sorts
00:56:42
of goods that we now realize are highly
00:56:44
strategic. And we're trying to figure
00:56:46
out well how do we onshore these things
00:56:48
because it seems really dangerous now
00:56:50
for us to be singlethreaded on you know
00:56:53
on potentially adversarial power for
00:56:56
rare earth or you know rare earth
00:56:58
magnets and chips and pharmaceuticals
00:57:01
and all these things but you know our
00:57:03
intellectual class just never seems to
00:57:05
revisit any of its assumptions they just
00:57:07
kind of have these dogmas chimoth
00:57:11
building on Sax's sort of cottification
00:57:14
of truths heristics and not getting
00:57:17
questioned how much of it is we just
00:57:19
codify hey trade good you know open
00:57:22
borders good free trade good and how
00:57:25
much of it is just incentives like I
00:57:26
mean rich people paying off politicians
00:57:28
to have more free trade independent of
00:57:31
party seems to be what's happened over
00:57:32
the last 10 20 years it just made more
00:57:35
sense to put workers and to send jobs to
00:57:38
the lowest cost place to increase
00:57:39
profits for American companies which
00:57:42
let's face it although it may have
00:57:44
hollowed out our manufacturing and
00:57:45
created this weakness in the four or
00:57:47
five areas you point out every week that
00:57:49
we need to reinforce quite eloquently
00:57:51
the real issue is we did that because we
00:57:54
wanted to make money. We wanted to have
00:57:56
the most highly profitable companies and
00:57:57
we did succeed. But maybe we succeeded
00:57:59
too much and our companies benefited
00:58:02
more than the middle class. You got Josh
00:58:04
Holly out there saying, "Hey, we should
00:58:05
go to $15 minimum wage federally from
00:58:08
this." The wrong the wrong people won in
00:58:12
the early in the early 2000s. I think
00:58:14
that there was a war of ideas and there
00:58:17
was a group of people that advocated for
00:58:20
this reckless form of free trade and
00:58:23
this globalist view like every country
00:58:26
is going to meld into one mega monolith
00:58:28
country organization that'll get
00:58:30
governed out of New York by the United
00:58:33
Nations and its sleeve organizations.
00:58:36
And that worldview won. But it was the
00:58:40
wrong worldview.
00:58:42
And it didn't acknowledge that we have
00:58:44
competing philosophies, competing
00:58:47
priorities, competing ideals of what the
00:58:49
future looks like. And I think that we
00:58:53
need to go back and reset all of those
00:58:55
things. If you just take where we are,
00:58:58
if you can just put the Sanki diagram
00:59:00
back up, there's a couple things that
00:59:01
are really worth noting that people need
00:59:03
to fundamentally understand. I said a
00:59:06
couple weeks ago that I thought the GDP
00:59:08
print was going to come in hot. I think
00:59:10
everybody now is sort of where I am. So,
00:59:14
let me give you the next thing. Let me
00:59:16
just ask you though, why is it hot? Do
00:59:17
you have a thesis on why GDP spikes so
00:59:20
much or potentially did that's obviously
00:59:22
a forecast.
00:59:25
I don't know the puts and takes yet. And
00:59:26
I think when we see the print, we have I
00:59:29
have a way of forecasting this stuff,
00:59:30
which is a bunch of signals that my team
00:59:33
and also many macro teams all around the
00:59:37
world, the bond vigilantes to the hedge
00:59:39
fund guys, they all feed it to me. And
00:59:42
what I was noticing was that we were
00:59:45
going to come in, I said in the low 3s.
00:59:49
And I think, you know, if Atlanta Fed is
00:59:50
right, I don't think they are, but I
00:59:52
think it's going to be in the low to
00:59:53
mid-3s. is going to be meaningfully
00:59:55
greater than what people are expecting.
00:59:57
So let me just give you my next
00:59:58
prediction. My next prediction are two
01:00:01
really important things. What this Sanki
01:00:03
diagram looks at which is a snapshot of
01:00:06
the balance sheet and the health of the
01:00:07
United States in May misses in my
01:00:11
opinion two very important things that
01:00:14
have to change.
01:00:16
The first and this is a positive for the
01:00:20
Trump administration and the United
01:00:21
States economy is we are run rating 300
01:00:26
to400 billion dollar above forecast
01:00:30
in terms of our receipts meaning the
01:00:33
revenues that we will take in and you
01:00:36
get to that number by looking at the
01:00:38
last three months of tariffs and
01:00:40
forecasting forward assuming a
01:00:42
reasonable balance here. So, back to
01:00:44
Tucker's point. Yeah, we all thought
01:00:47
that this was like a boogeyman that you
01:00:49
weren't allowed to touch it and that if
01:00:51
you touched the stove, you were going to
01:00:52
get burned.
01:00:54
The mathematical reality is that this is
01:00:56
actually going to work out much better
01:00:59
for us than we anticipated and it's
01:01:00
going to be somewhere in the range of
01:01:02
300 to 400 billion of extra revenue per
01:01:05
year. That's a huge win.
01:01:08
So, why is that important?
01:01:11
That then sets up this next cataclysmic
01:01:13
thing that we're going to see over the
01:01:15
next 60 days, which is what does Jerome
01:01:18
Powell do?
01:01:21
If Jerome Powell stays politicized,
01:01:26
his incentive will be to keep interest
01:01:28
rates where they are.
01:01:30
If Jerome Powell looks at the conditions
01:01:33
on the ground, especially when you start
01:01:36
to see inflation stay in the low twos
01:01:39
and approach 2.0,
01:01:42
The real thing that he's going to be
01:01:43
under tremendous pressure to justify is
01:01:46
why are you not cutting?
01:01:48
And just to give you a sense of how
01:01:50
important that is, if we cut by 100
01:01:52
basis points, that's another $300
01:01:54
billion. Now, in that case, that's not
01:01:57
money that we get in, but it's money we
01:02:00
don't have to spend.
01:02:02
So if you add these two things together,
01:02:04
we are in the next 60 days going to have
01:02:07
to reforcast the American balance sheet
01:02:10
where this is or we're actually going to
01:02:14
be able to positively forecast an extra
01:02:16
600 billion. 300 billion of incremental
01:02:18
revenue and 300 billion of savings.
01:02:22
Jason, if that happens, watch out. What
01:02:25
does that mean? Watch out. It means that
01:02:27
every single risk dollar is going to run
01:02:30
to America. Every single one. Yum. Yum.
01:02:33
Forget Japan. Forget Europe. There is no
01:02:36
place to put your money except the
01:02:39
United States. So, I think that we have
01:02:41
to figure out
01:02:44
how to get Jerome Powell on the side of
01:02:46
America versus on the side of what could
01:02:48
happen
01:02:50
politically. Because I think that
01:02:51
there's probably a version in his head
01:02:53
that says, "My gosh, if I do this, it
01:02:55
helps Trump
01:02:57
and if I don't do it, it hurts Trump."
01:03:00
Practically that is true. But the
01:03:01
reality is the conditions on the ground
01:03:03
justify cutting. Okay. So you're
01:03:05
predicting this 300 billion two
01:03:08
different ways in and out 50 billion a
01:03:10
month. It starts cutting this deficit
01:03:12
pretty significantly. your claim, I just
01:03:16
want to be clear here, is that Powell is
01:03:18
playing politics, not working towards
01:03:22
the dual mandate, which is very clear,
01:03:25
controlled unemployment at the 2.0 rate
01:03:28
and full employment. Your belief is that
01:03:30
he's playing politics. Yes. I I believe
01:03:32
that these decisions are political. I
01:03:34
think that the Federal Reserve has
01:03:36
veered away from actually controlling
01:03:40
the money supply in the best long-term
01:03:42
interests of the United States and more
01:03:44
towards what benefits the short-term.
01:03:47
And this ties back to how I started
01:03:49
this. What is Powell's motivation?
01:03:51
Somewhere in the 2000s, Jason, we
01:03:54
transitioned away from having the
01:03:56
strategic 20-year conversation about
01:03:58
what's in the best interest of America.
01:04:00
And instead, we started to have these
01:04:02
uniolar globalist conversations. And the
01:04:05
people that got into these centers of
01:04:08
power, the IMF, the World Bank, the
01:04:10
Federal Reserve, the central banks
01:04:12
around the world, they all worked
01:04:14
towards an agenda that is now being
01:04:15
undone. I'll give you an example of
01:04:17
where this is now being undone. Just
01:04:19
today,
01:04:21
the World Bank undid a rule around being
01:04:24
able to fund nuclear energy. And you
01:04:26
would have thought, well, hold on a
01:04:28
second. The World Bank steps in to backs
01:04:30
stop all these developing countries when
01:04:31
they're in the middle of all this
01:04:32
nonsense, right? And if you think about
01:04:34
a country that's developing, what is the
01:04:36
single biggest input to that country?
01:04:38
Energy.
01:04:39
And you think for the last 40 years of
01:04:43
multi- trillion dollar bailouts, we
01:04:45
never demanded abundant clean energy in
01:04:47
the developing world. Of course not
01:04:49
because it was a political decision.
01:04:50
Okay, Tucker, do you believe the Fed is
01:04:53
playing politics here? It's kind of hard
01:04:55
to believe if Pal was placed by Trump
01:04:56
and Biden. He's there was consensus
01:04:59
there and his mandate is to get to 2.0
01:05:01
and full employment. He's kind of
01:05:03
trending towards that. He's made a
01:05:04
couple of cuts. The markets predict he
01:05:06
is going to make a cut. Here's poly
01:05:08
market for September showing 80% chance
01:05:10
of a cut. Let's take a look if that's
01:05:12
changed since the last time. Uh so in
01:05:14
September, no. Okay. Well, this has
01:05:16
changed. Uh 32. All right. So here's
01:05:19
your poly market fed decision in
01:05:20
September. No change. 53% 25 bips 43 50
01:05:24
bips 3.8. So you put those two together,
01:05:27
you're you're roughly at 47% chance of a
01:05:30
cut. 53% chance of no cut. So 50/50 coin
01:05:34
toss. Do you think the Fed is playing
01:05:36
politics? Do I think the Fed chairman
01:05:38
who who lives in who lives in Chevy
01:05:41
Chase is a political actor? I mean, are
01:05:44
you serious? What's his motivation then?
01:05:46
What's his endgame? Why does he not want
01:05:48
to cut rates or or why would he not want
01:05:52
to put it? Well, of course. I mean, he
01:05:55
lives in a world in which there is no
01:05:57
one who doesn't want to stick it to
01:05:58
Trump. I mean, I know the zip code that
01:06:00
he lives in very very well. Um, I know
01:06:02
the club that he goes to. I know the
01:06:04
world. No, no, I would. Of course not.
01:06:06
And I'm not mad at him. I'm just saying
01:06:07
I I I know the world well. And um of
01:06:11
course no uh no one in that world wants
01:06:13
to be seen uh helping Trump and Trump
01:06:15
has attacked him by the way in public.
01:06:17
So I don't think that helps either. I
01:06:19
think the structure of the Fed
01:06:22
governance is very weird. I think um I
01:06:25
I'm not exactly sure what the Fed is.
01:06:27
I've asked this question to a lot of
01:06:29
economists including Larry Summers.
01:06:30
Never really gotten a straight answer.
01:06:31
Like how is it that um this is beyond
01:06:35
political control? I mean, I don't know
01:06:37
if we're for democracy, shouldn't voters
01:06:39
have some say in how this is
01:06:41
administered? But they don't. I mean,
01:06:43
there's no direct mechanism for voters
01:06:45
to be heard um in this the single most
01:06:48
important institution in the American
01:06:49
economy. How does that which is a crypto
01:06:50
government organization? It's, you know,
01:06:52
administering US dollars. I don't I just
01:06:54
don't understand it. I think it's very
01:06:56
the idea that you're going to
01:06:57
depoliticize it by making its leadership
01:07:00
immune from the control of elected
01:07:02
officials strikes me as the kind of like
01:07:04
midcentury dumbness that got us NATO and
01:07:06
a lot of other bad institutions. I just
01:07:09
don't get it. The exact opposation
01:07:16
of the Fed be here I've asked this two
01:07:19
times. Can't seem to get an answer. What
01:07:20
what's the motivation of the Fed? Just
01:07:21
is it to stick it to Trump? Jason Jason
01:07:23
let me well let me give you another data
01:07:25
point. Okay now let's assume let's just
01:07:27
scenario play. Yes please. What happens
01:07:30
if Powell rips in a 100 basis point cut
01:07:32
right now? I'll tell you. So one part
01:07:34
which is mathematical is the interest on
01:07:36
the debt goes down. We save 300 billion.
01:07:39
But there's something else that happens
01:07:41
which is the Fed does control the front
01:07:44
end of the curve. Meaning, how do people
01:07:48
borrow money for small amounts of time
01:07:50
from one day to about two years? If you
01:07:53
make that cheaper, we know is it's a
01:07:56
test as true as time, what happens is
01:07:58
people borrow more money. That fuels
01:08:01
more growth. That will end up in GDP.
01:08:04
So, what actually happens if you cut
01:08:06
rates 100 basis points is not just the
01:08:08
300, but you can get this reflexive
01:08:10
positivity in the economy. What that
01:08:13
allows you to do is even if that causes
01:08:16
a little bit more inflation, you're
01:08:18
actually growing yourself out of this
01:08:20
whole thing. So then you ask yourself,
01:08:23
well, hold on a second. If the numerical
01:08:25
justification is there to lower rates
01:08:29
and it has all of these other positive
01:08:31
externalities for the United States
01:08:33
economy, why don't I do it? The only
01:08:36
answer is political.
01:08:38
I I wonder if Hold on. Let me just let
01:08:40
me let me teach you. Um, okay. So, we're
01:08:43
at 2.6% on uh inflation. He wants to get
01:08:47
it down to two. Feels like we're in
01:08:48
striking distance. Maybe you could maybe
01:08:50
give us a theory here, Sachs, of what
01:08:52
would the political motivation be? I
01:08:54
find it hard to believe that he's trying
01:08:56
to sink Trump for some reason as opposed
01:08:58
to maybe just being scared of inflation
01:09:00
popping up above that 3x handle, which
01:09:03
then triggers them to, you know, raise
01:09:06
rates. So, what's what's your theory
01:09:07
here? If you're pal, it's better to take
01:09:10
the risk of being Paul Vulkar than
01:09:12
Arthur Burns. I mean, that's that's
01:09:14
basically what it comes down to. For
01:09:16
people who don't Well, because what
01:09:18
happened is Arthur Burns let inflation
01:09:19
slip the leash in the 1970s and he's
01:09:22
remembered as a horrible Fed chair. And
01:09:24
then Paul Vulker came in and jacked up
01:09:26
rates to like I think close to 20%. And
01:09:29
caused a vicious recession in 1982. But
01:09:33
by 1983, the economy had bounced back
01:09:36
and inflation basically was under
01:09:39
control. And then the rate cutting cycle
01:09:41
started. And that rate cutting cycle
01:09:42
went for like 25 years. And then Reagan
01:09:45
got reelected in 1984. So you you know,
01:09:48
you rather be a vulker than than a Burns
01:09:51
if you're a Fed chair. Now you raised
01:09:53
the question, is pal political? Yeah, of
01:09:55
course he is. If you go back to uh was
01:09:58
it 2021? So, the first summer of Biden's
01:10:01
presidency, we got that shock 5.1%
01:10:06
inflation print of in May of 2021, if my
01:10:09
memory is correct. What did the Biden
01:10:11
administration do? They sent Janet
01:10:13
Yellan out to say it was transitory and
01:10:16
Pal got on board with the whole
01:10:17
transitory narrative. Exactly. And as a
01:10:19
result of that, he did not raise rates
01:10:22
for six months. And worse than that,
01:10:24
they continued QE. I think they bought
01:10:26
like 180 billion of bonds in that time
01:10:29
period and that's what allowed inflation
01:10:31
to get so out of control. Now, why is it
01:10:33
that Pal did that because he wanted to
01:10:37
get reconfirmed and yes, he was
01:10:40
nominated by Trump originally, but Biden
01:10:42
renominated him and he basically wanted
01:10:45
the reappointment by Biden. and he
01:10:46
wanted to get confirmed and then the
01:10:48
month after he got confirmed all of a
01:10:50
sudden he shifted gears and started
01:10:52
raising rates again once he was safely
01:10:54
in Wisconsin's office. So he did the
01:10:57
right thing in terms of raising rates in
01:10:58
the face of inflation once he was free
01:11:02
from those political incentives but for
01:11:05
6 months he was intensely political and
01:11:08
that cost the United States dearly I
01:11:09
think dearly dearly. So now if you're a
01:11:12
pal, you've got PTSD from that whole
01:11:15
experience and you're going to heir on
01:11:17
the side of not letting inflation come
01:11:20
back. I think what with inflation down
01:11:22
to 2.4%.
01:11:24
I think it is time to cut rates, but
01:11:27
he's fearful because again his
01:11:29
incentives are to be a Vulker, not a
01:11:31
Burns. Yeah. And uh you want to read a
01:11:34
good book? Paul Vulker is keeping at it.
01:11:36
great uh book about has uh Reagan going
01:11:39
to him and trying to get him to cut
01:11:41
rates. So, this is a reoccurring story
01:11:43
just on but you know if if he had done
01:11:44
the right thing in the summer of 2021 we
01:11:46
would never would have had that bubble
01:11:47
at the end of 2021. Yeah. Remember and
01:11:50
that that basically created a huge crash
01:11:54
in 2022 and we could have avoided a good
01:11:57
part of that if he had done the right
01:11:59
thing. You know like the Fed chair it's
01:12:02
not a hard job most of the time. I mean,
01:12:04
these guys sit in their ivory tower and
01:12:06
then once a quarter they come out and do
01:12:08
this, you know, and basically testify
01:12:10
and say a bunch of, you know, things
01:12:12
that no one can understand, but like
01:12:14
once in a while you got to get the
01:12:16
decision right. And he totally screwed
01:12:18
it up in that one time where he had to
01:12:19
get it right. Yep. And I would say this
01:12:22
could be one of those moments too where
01:12:23
I think he's being a little bit fearful.
01:12:25
I think that there's a simpler
01:12:26
explanation quite honestly. Like if you
01:12:28
look at Powell's history, he was he was
01:12:30
nominated as a governor by Obama. Then
01:12:33
Trump picked him out of the Fed to be
01:12:35
chair, but then he was reappointed by
01:12:36
Biden. If you look at the vice chair of
01:12:38
the Fed, Phil Jefferson, he was
01:12:40
appointed by Biden. If you look at
01:12:41
Michelle Bowman, who's the vice chair
01:12:43
for supervision, she was appointed by
01:12:44
Trump. Michael Bar appointed by Biden.
01:12:47
Lisa Cook appointed by Biden. Adriana
01:12:49
Kuger appointed by Biden.
01:12:52
Chris Waller appointed by Trump. So I
01:12:54
think the point is that there is a
01:12:55
balance of power here. If you look at
01:12:57
political affiliations that tend to
01:12:59
favor a
01:13:02
democratic
01:13:05
view of the political landscape and
01:13:07
let's be honest, what benefits the
01:13:09
Democrats more, a thriving economy and a
01:13:12
shrinking deficit going into the
01:13:14
midterms or the exact opposite? The
01:13:17
reason I'm bringing this up and I'm just
01:13:18
harping on it is he's a Republican who
01:13:20
Democrats have opposed. So I'm I'm just
01:13:22
trying to reconcile this grand
01:13:24
conspiracy that he wants to sing Trump.
01:13:26
I don't think it's Republican. I think
01:13:28
it's just a general decision. I think
01:13:30
these guys move the dot plots and you
01:13:32
can see it in the movement. Okay.
01:13:34
They're going away from reading the
01:13:37
actual data and moving in concert with
01:13:40
the data to giving themselves a window
01:13:43
to let the data play itself out beyond a
01:13:45
reasonable point. And my point is the
01:13:48
beyond the reasonable point is the key
01:13:49
part because when you talk to the large
01:13:51
sophisticated pools of money. Yeah. Many
01:13:54
of them are like what is going on here?
01:13:57
All right. Currently the big beautiful
01:13:59
bill is uh in the Senate pass the house
01:14:01
by a one vote margin. Trump said he
01:14:03
wants the Senate to pass the bill by
01:14:04
Independence Day July 4th. Uh Senate
01:14:08
math. Republicans have a 53 to 47
01:14:10
majority. As you know, they can afford
01:14:12
three nos on their side since Dems are
01:14:14
united against the bill. With 50 votes,
01:14:16
JD Vance can break the tie, obviously.
01:14:19
So, it's easier if they can get to 51.
01:14:21
Seven GOP senators are either no or
01:14:24
maybe no. Three likely nos, Rand Paul,
01:14:27
Ron Johnson, Rick Scott. Four maybe nos
01:14:30
over the Medicaid cuts. Uh Josh Holly,
01:14:33
Susan Collins, Marowski, Jim Justice. Uh
01:14:37
none of those senators have committed
01:14:38
either way. and Republicans are now
01:14:41
falling into three camps on BBB. Hard
01:14:43
yes, soft yes, no until it's fixed.
01:14:46
Obviously,
01:14:48
uh some friends of ours were a little
01:14:50
upset about the BBB and uh we had a
01:14:53
pretty chaotic week the last week. It
01:14:55
looks like the reconciliation is in.
01:14:57
Your take on the last week and the
01:14:59
reactions to the BBB and obviously Elon
01:15:02
and Trump's relationship. Tucker Coffin,
01:15:06
I hate the whole thing. This is not how
01:15:09
to legislate. I You shouldn't have a
01:15:11
bill this big. It's impossible to get
01:15:13
your mind around it. No one can read it.
01:15:15
No one understands it. It favors
01:15:18
professional staff over legislators.
01:15:21
It totally leaves the public out. It'll
01:15:24
be a decade before anyone understands
01:15:25
what it means. Um the lobbies love it.
01:15:29
It's just it's Washington at its
01:15:31
ugliest. Um not this specific bill,
01:15:33
though. It is an example of it, but just
01:15:36
this is just not the way to do it. And
01:15:38
it's not the way it has been done
01:15:39
throughout American history. I mean,
01:15:40
there's just no reason to aggregate it
01:15:42
all together like this. It becomes
01:15:44
totally unmanageable and totally
01:15:46
undemocratic.
01:15:48
So, you know, I mean, yeah. Well, it's
01:15:50
insane. It's totally insane. Do can I
01:15:53
mean, can can you tell me what's in it?
01:15:55
No. I mean, you know, like all of us
01:15:57
know like 11 things we've read on
01:15:59
Twitter or whatever, but like the truth
01:16:01
is even the professional staff that
01:16:03
wrote it couldn't if you had dinner with
01:16:05
them over 3 hours really give you a
01:16:07
comprehensive sense of what's in it. And
01:16:09
remember, when it passes, and I think it
01:16:11
likely will, um, you know, it's it's the
01:16:14
law. So, and that's by design in order
01:16:17
of course by design. Of course, it's by
01:16:20
design. It's just Well, I mean, look,
01:16:22
it's, you know, it's just it's just
01:16:24
overload. You can't I mean every single
01:16:26
part of this this is the economy of the
01:16:28
city that I've lived in my whole life.
01:16:31
Every single part of this is there by
01:16:33
design. It's been managed. It's been
01:16:35
thought through. It's been written
01:16:36
artfully. And by artfully I mean
01:16:38
deceptively.
01:16:40
So you can't understand its purpose or
01:16:42
its benefit. And literally it is years
01:16:45
before the ramifications become clear.
01:16:48
And again this is why we have
01:16:50
committees. you know, a committee
01:16:51
masters a subject and then theoretically
01:16:54
produces legislation that bears on that
01:16:56
subject with, you know, knowledge and
01:16:58
depth and hopefully wisdom. Um, the
01:17:01
Congress is not designed to pass
01:17:04
legislation in this way and we've
01:17:06
evolved to this and I guess I would um
01:17:10
encourage the White House to try and
01:17:12
blow that up. I think it'd be better for
01:17:14
everybody if uh you know legislation was
01:17:17
passed peacemeal as it always has been.
01:17:21
Um I think part of the problem is the
01:17:24
leadership in the Congress and nobody
01:17:26
wants to say it is just embarrassing.
01:17:27
It's just totally embarrassing. And I
01:17:30
would say the conference isn't united
01:17:31
either. I mean this is part of the
01:17:33
problem with Trump's agenda. Um, it's
01:17:36
the beauty of Trump's agenda in my
01:17:37
opinion, but it's, you know, it's so
01:17:39
different from what your average
01:17:41
65-year-old Republican was raised
01:17:43
believing. It's so different from what
01:17:45
Fox News is telling you. It's the mirror
01:17:47
image of what the Wall Street Journal
01:17:48
editorial page is telling you that there
01:17:50
just not that many members of the House
01:17:53
or the Senate who are truly on board
01:17:55
with Trump's message even now. And of
01:17:58
course, they cowtow to the man, but when
01:18:01
it really comes down to it, they hate
01:18:04
his stated agenda.
01:18:05
and state agenda. Unpack what do they
01:18:09
hate most? What do they hate most? It's
01:18:10
not even a close call. They hate his
01:18:12
foreign policy views. They hate his
01:18:13
foreign policy views because look, out
01:18:16
of 535 members of the House and Senate,
01:18:19
I would say 510 have given up on
01:18:22
improving the United States through
01:18:24
their jobs. Like they they know they
01:18:25
can't. It's like intractable. This is
01:18:27
their view. It's complex. It's boring.
01:18:29
It's difficult. And it's super hard to
01:18:31
solve. and the numbers in the House and
01:18:33
Senate make it practically impossible to
01:18:35
move the ball on whatever issue they
01:18:37
care about or were elected on. And so
01:18:38
they take all of that energy and they
01:18:41
apply it to making the rest of the world
01:18:43
better. Fighting for democracy or you
01:18:45
know the the the the grander the
01:18:47
description, the the less accountability
01:18:49
there is. You know, if we're just like
01:18:51
fighting for Churchill against Hitler,
01:18:53
like it's always a win because we don't
01:18:55
know any of the details. It's a simpler
01:18:57
Yeah, it's a simpler cause for them to
01:19:00
take on than looking at how do we
01:19:02
balance what would you like to see Trump
01:19:04
do, Tucker? What would Tucker Carlson
01:19:05
advise if you were in the White House,
01:19:08
which many people have requested that
01:19:10
you do that? If you were at the right
01:19:11
hand of the father, what would you tell
01:19:13
him to do?
01:19:15
Understand the politician brain, which
01:19:17
is reptilian by its nature. It responds
01:19:20
only to pain. Period. Only to pain. So,
01:19:23
if you want a politician to do your
01:19:26
bidding, it's a super simple
01:19:27
conversation. Do what I ask or I will
01:19:30
make sure you lose your job. And by the
01:19:31
way, Trump has the power to do that,
01:19:33
which is what Elon said on Twitter. Just
01:19:35
put it out there. No, but it's true. And
01:19:37
I do think if there's, you know, a
01:19:40
number of criticisms of any living
01:19:41
person, but one I would level at Trump
01:19:43
is he is he's nice. Like he likes to get
01:19:45
along with people. He actually doesn't
01:19:46
like to fight in person. That is true.
01:19:48
He likes to get along with people. No
01:19:50
one will believe that, but I've seen it
01:19:51
a lot.
01:19:52
And I think it's tough for him to say,
01:19:55
it's easy for him to, you know, go after
01:19:59
a reptile like Mitch McConnell like at a
01:20:01
press conference. You'll make fun of
01:20:03
cocaine Mitch or whatever. But to really
01:20:05
go to McConnell and say, "Yeah, listen,
01:20:08
son. You know, this is going to hurt in
01:20:10
in the following six ways unless you
01:20:13
obey, you little bitch." Which is really
01:20:15
what he ought to be saying. No, I mean
01:20:16
it. I absolutely mean it. And be saying
01:20:18
that to all of these guys. Tom Cotton,
01:20:21
are you joking? How does Tom Cotton have
01:20:23
a say in anything? You know, and oh,
01:20:26
I'm, you know, you're that chairman of
01:20:27
the Intel Committee. I'm so impressed.
01:20:29
Listen, Tom Cotton, you represent a
01:20:31
state that likes me a lot more than you.
01:20:33
So, if I find you undermining me, yet
01:20:35
again, and Tom Cotton spends an awful
01:20:36
lot of time undermining Trump. Like, Tom
01:20:38
Cotton hates Trump, actually, of course.
01:20:40
Um, but if I find you doing that, I'm
01:20:42
going to take your Senate seat away, and
01:20:44
that's going to be really easy for me to
01:20:45
do. And I really wish he would do that.
01:20:47
It would only take one cycle to clear
01:20:49
out, you know, to really get some
01:20:50
discipline like the French in Algeria,
01:20:52
you know, for the encouragement of the
01:20:53
other. The first guy goes out of the
01:20:55
helicopter and then the second guy is
01:20:56
super talkative. If you did that in the
01:20:58
United States Senate, you would have a
01:21:01
much more coherent
01:21:03
um party, I think, like in about a
01:21:06
cycle. A little more leadership, a
01:21:07
little more stick than carrot. Uh, who
01:21:10
wants to go next? Jam or Sax? A lot more
01:21:12
stick. Okay, here we go. Tucker says
01:21:14
more stick. Sachs, what you're feeling?
01:21:17
Are we still talking about the big
01:21:18
beautiful bill? What are we talking
01:21:19
about? Yeah. I mean, well, I mean, we're
01:21:21
talking about it all. Everybody wants to
01:21:23
hear, you know, about our takes on the
01:21:25
kurfluffle between Elon and uh Trump,
01:21:28
obviously, in relation to BBB. So, let's
01:21:30
just tackle it or you can pass on it.
01:21:32
Yeah, let's we got to put it out here.
01:21:33
We're 40 We're an hour into the episode.
01:21:35
Let's just talk about it. Let me speak
01:21:37
to BBB for a second. So, so listen, if
01:21:40
the question is whether I can defend a
01:21:42
system that produces $2 trillion
01:21:44
deficits every year, no, I I can't I
01:21:46
can't even defend the Senate rules that
01:21:49
require you to get 60 votes for some
01:21:52
things and 50 votes for other things. I
01:21:53
mean, it's all just seems kind of random
01:21:55
when you're an outsider. But those
01:21:58
aren't the rules is they've got these
01:22:00
crazy bird rules and once a year you get
01:22:03
to do this reconciliation bill where it
01:22:05
only takes 50 votes instead of 60 votes
01:22:07
to pass something which means you can
01:22:10
actually get something done without the
01:22:12
Democrats which is a rare opportunity
01:22:15
and you know you just have to basically
01:22:17
come up with um a nexus to a budgetary
01:22:20
issue and so that's what the BBB has
01:22:23
done and as a result of of that
01:22:26
conduit it. I guess you could say that
01:22:28
it's a way for the president to ratify
01:22:32
many of his most important campaign
01:22:33
promises from the 2024 election. And so
01:22:37
you've got the tax cut extension in
01:22:39
here. You've got full funding of of
01:22:41
border security for four years. You've
01:22:42
got no tax on tips. You've got drill
01:22:44
baby drill. You've got the missile
01:22:46
defense shield. So these are campaign
01:22:48
promises that are important to the
01:22:49
president. It's kind of a once in
01:22:52
a-lifetime opportunity to pass these
01:22:54
things. I think that Republicans would
01:22:56
be committing political suicide if they
01:22:58
don't. I mean, the polling on this, I'll
01:23:00
give you some numbers. So, first of all,
01:23:01
the bill itself is popular despite all
01:23:04
the bashing of it. I think that popular
01:23:06
with who? Well, this is a national poll
01:23:09
by Signal,
01:23:11
which actually has a bias in favor of
01:23:13
Democrats by plus 2.1. So, this with the
01:23:16
public, it's who haven't read it. I
01:23:18
know, believe it or not. So, um, what
01:23:20
does that even mean? that support for a
01:23:22
big beautiful bill plus six increased
01:23:24
funding for border security plus 35
01:23:26
that'll probably be even more now that
01:23:28
what's going on in LA work requirements
01:23:30
for Medicaid and SNAP plus 38 so despite
01:23:34
the Democrats carping on that point
01:23:35
people really like the idea of of work
01:23:37
requirements and then permanently
01:23:39
extending the 2017 tax cuts support plus
01:23:42
19 so these are very popular planks of
01:23:46
the president's agenda it's the only
01:23:48
chance they're going to have to to pass
01:23:49
this Look, you know, I I said this three
01:23:52
weeks ago on the pod the last few
01:23:53
episodes that I don't support the bill
01:23:55
because it's perfect. I support it just
01:23:56
pragmatically because it's better than
01:23:58
the status quo. And my view is that we
01:24:02
should take this now. We should get this
01:24:03
done and then come back for more later.
01:24:06
And there should be a big fight over the
01:24:08
budget at some point in the future, but
01:24:10
this is not the right time to do it. We
01:24:12
don't have the votes. We're not
01:24:12
organized. And it would compromise these
01:24:14
other promises the president's made. And
01:24:16
the time to really have that battle is
01:24:18
at the beginning of the new fiscal year,
01:24:19
which is October 1st. So we at some
01:24:22
point do need to have a big fight over
01:24:24
the budget. There does need to be
01:24:26
resistance to the deficit. We can't
01:24:27
continue in this current state forever,
01:24:29
but I don't think that's the hill to die
01:24:31
on right now. Chimath, your thoughts on
01:24:33
BBB and the Kuruffle, if you want it.
01:24:36
Here's what I'll say. I was sad at the
01:24:38
end of last week. one is my friend and
01:24:40
the other is my president and it seemed
01:24:42
like a really profound friendship and so
01:24:44
I was bummed.
01:24:47
Here's what I'll say this week though on
01:24:48
a much more positive note. I saw Elon on
01:24:51
Tuesday and I got to spend a couple
01:24:54
hours with him at Tesla. He let me audit
01:24:57
a couple of meetings with him actually.
01:24:59
It's always fun. Yeah. Yeah. One was
01:25:01
Dojo and then right after that was the
01:25:03
Optimus team. H one thing I'll say is
01:25:07
I've said this before but he attracts
01:25:10
these incredible men and women to work
01:25:12
for him. They are inspiring. Just
01:25:14
sitting in a meeting and hearing it what
01:25:17
they're doing was amazing. And then
01:25:20
second to see Elon in action at scale in
01:25:25
that way is like watching a maestro
01:25:27
paint a masterpiece. It's it's really
01:25:30
impressive. And then separately, I saw
01:25:32
President Trump doing a couple of
01:25:34
pressers and he was in his zone of
01:25:36
excellence. So, it seems like they're
01:25:39
going to find some common ground here.
01:25:41
They are better together. And I'll just
01:25:44
say Elon, amazing. Tesla, incredible.
01:25:49
And I would not be sleeping on this
01:25:51
company is what I would say. Jason, what
01:25:53
do you think? So,
01:25:56
we're not the main characters in this
01:25:57
story, obviously. And when I saw what
01:26:00
happened last week, obviously this is
01:26:01
one of my best friends for many decades.
01:26:04
And given the popularity of this
01:26:06
podcast, my decision was I don't want to
01:26:10
insert myself into this, have my quotes
01:26:13
or my feelings uh about Trump, about the
01:26:17
bill get weaponized. And that's
01:26:19
typically what happens when you have a
01:26:21
friend who's the number one story in the
01:26:23
world. Uh and now not friends with
01:26:25
Trump, but he is my president as well by
01:26:27
default.
01:26:28
What benefit does it have to me to then
01:26:31
speak about it and then have everybody
01:26:33
weaponize it? So, I know this is hard
01:26:34
for the audience to reconcile, but
01:26:36
sometimes it's better for me to just
01:26:38
step back. That's why you don't see me
01:26:40
commenting on Tesla or SpaceX publicly
01:26:42
all the time because people weaponize
01:26:44
what I say against my friend, and I just
01:26:46
don't like that. And, you know, it it's
01:26:48
happened in books. It's happens in news
01:26:49
stories. So, when Elon is doing
01:26:51
something and it's this intense, I like
01:26:53
to just step back and maybe take a beat.
01:26:55
That was my decision. That's why I
01:26:57
didn't want to do a pod last week.
01:26:59
Everybody else can speak for themselves.
01:27:01
That's where I'm at. How do I feel about
01:27:03
it? I think Trump uh is making a mistake
01:27:06
with BBB. I think he should push back on
01:27:07
it harder. I said that in a previous
01:27:09
episode. And I think Elon's 100% correct
01:27:12
about that. I also think if either of
01:27:15
these parties can't control spending,
01:27:17
there needs to be like the Nor what was
01:27:19
it? The Norquist um you guys would know
01:27:21
more about this, but Norquist pledge,
01:27:23
Tucker, where you you know, you agree to
01:27:25
not increase taxes. I think we need
01:27:27
something like that where a reasonable
01:27:29
party says we should balance the budget.
01:27:33
We have to control the deficit. There
01:27:34
should be some pledge like that that we
01:27:36
force our elected officials on both
01:27:37
sides of the aisle to take. And I'm
01:27:39
going to start pursuing that myself
01:27:41
personally. You can go to join
01:27:43
thereresponsibleparty.com
01:27:44
and I'm just going to start an email
01:27:46
newsletter and just talk about it. I
01:27:47
think there needs to be a pledge that
01:27:48
these politicians take to balance the
01:27:51
budget and cut the deficit over some
01:27:53
reasonable amount of time. Uh but I wish
01:27:55
them both the best and I'm glad that the
01:27:57
two of them have reconciled because
01:27:59
that's good for the country. We can't
01:28:00
have these two giants at war. The
01:28:02
greatest innovator in our country and a
01:28:05
president who's got, you know, an agenda
01:28:06
which I agree with twothirds of. I may
01:28:08
not agree with how he's doing
01:28:09
immigration on the margins, but I agree
01:28:11
with everything else. So, I'm just
01:28:13
rooting for the both of them because
01:28:15
it's so important that for America that
01:28:16
they get along. Great. So, in summary,
01:28:19
you're not centering yourself, but you
01:28:21
have a website www. I have an opinion.
01:28:25
It accepts Apple. I'm not telling you to
01:28:27
go to founderun university. It's $1 a
01:28:29
month, but if you subscribe for a year,
01:28:32
it's $6. Yeah, you actually threw in a
01:28:34
plug. I have an issue. I'm throwing a
01:28:35
plug in. That was insane. I I don't
01:28:37
care. Listen, sign up the responsible
01:28:41
party.com. I'm going to start my over my
01:28:43
own your quiz pledge, but also join.
01:28:46
It's insane. You're insane. I'd also
01:28:47
like to plug Chamat's Substack. It's
01:28:50
$1,000 a year to get his reports and uh
01:28:53
you can of course buy David
01:28:54
Saxquil.com/ucker.
01:28:57
What plugs do you have? I've never
01:28:58
plugged. No plugs from Tucker. Tucker,
01:29:01
you where what's in the merch store,
01:29:03
Tucker? You got to have something in the
01:29:04
merch store. Alp, America's greatest
01:29:06
nicotine pouch. That's all I've got.
01:29:08
Okay, here we go. Plugs central. Uh,
01:29:10
fantastic. All right, breaking news
01:29:12
here. Foreign policy looks like a major
01:29:13
escalation with Iran could be happening.
01:29:15
Maybe on Wednesday, it was reported some
01:29:17
US personnel were being evacuated out of
01:29:19
the Middle East. Partial evacuation of
01:29:22
the Iraqi embassy. Okay. Oil prices move
01:29:25
4% on the news. Later reported that
01:29:28
Israel is prepared to launch an
01:29:30
operation into Iran. US thinks Iran
01:29:33
could retaliate on spaces in Iraq which
01:29:35
explains the evacuations. Trump was
01:29:37
asked about the evacuation said the
01:29:39
following quote they are being moved out
01:29:42
because it could be a dangerous place.
01:29:44
We'll see what happens. The classic
01:29:45
Trump will see what happens. And then he
01:29:48
added they can't have a nuclear weapon.
01:29:51
Very simple. Okay. Poly market odds are
01:29:54
spiking on Israel. Action against Iran
01:29:58
50%. Oh boy. Uh Tucker,
01:30:03
can the West allow Iran to have a
01:30:06
nuclear weapon or is this more a WMD
01:30:10
situation that we referenced at the
01:30:11
start of the program? If Tucker Carlson
01:30:14
was in the White House, which many of
01:30:15
your fans wish you were, what would your
01:30:18
advice be here?
01:30:20
Is it up to us? Do we have the power?
01:30:23
Nobody wants Iran to have a nuclear
01:30:25
weapon. I don't think the Iranians want
01:30:26
a nuclear weapon right now by judging by
01:30:28
their actions, but it could we prevent
01:30:31
it is the question. And if so, how
01:30:34
exactly given that we just lost to
01:30:36
Russia and the Houthis? Um I'm
01:30:39
skeptical. Um but I'm amazed by how
01:30:42
close we are to military action against
01:30:45
Iran. It's no defense of Iran. Of
01:30:47
course, I'm not a Shiite for the record,
01:30:49
but I think it comes with perils that
01:30:51
people are not considering or willfully
01:30:52
ignoring. And the main one is Iran is
01:30:55
not Iraq or it's not Libya. It's not
01:30:57
isolated. It's a it's a central player
01:30:59
in bricks. 90% of of Iran's oil exports
01:31:03
go to China. It just signed an defense
01:31:05
agreement with Russia in January. So
01:31:07
it's not you know what I mean? It has
01:31:09
backup. It has big allies that represent
01:31:11
the majority of the world's population
01:31:12
and the majority of the world's economy
01:31:14
and land mass. So the potential for this
01:31:17
to become something much much bigger and
01:31:18
unmanageable is is real. It's there.
01:31:21
their conventional weapons are fearsome
01:31:24
and could do great damage to our allies
01:31:26
to Israel and and to American assets in
01:31:29
that area and also to energy production
01:31:32
um in countries that we we rely on. So I
01:31:35
think the downsides are uh are really
01:31:37
kind of overwhelming. I think um a
01:31:40
protracted meaning anything over a day
01:31:43
or two uh engagement with Iran would
01:31:45
derail the Trump agenda and the
01:31:48
presidency and I think it could really
01:31:50
sink this administration and so I pray
01:31:52
this this doesn't happen. I think by the
01:31:54
way I think the timetable is distorted.
01:31:56
There is absolutely no reason to the
01:31:58
president has said repeatedly we will do
01:32:00
everything we can to prevent Iran from
01:32:02
getting a nuclear weapon. I think it's a
01:32:03
completely reasonable goal. Nobody wants
01:32:05
that. I certainly don't want that and
01:32:07
the Israelis don't want it and the Gulf
01:32:08
States don't want it. Nobody wants that.
01:32:10
But it doesn't mean that it has to
01:32:12
happen on Friday actually and there are
01:32:15
other forces exerting pressure on the
01:32:18
administration to get this done quickly
01:32:22
even before Steve Wickoff, God bless
01:32:24
him, um meets with his counterparts in
01:32:26
Oman in a few days from now. So it's
01:32:28
like why in the world would you preempt
01:32:31
a scheduled negotiation with air strikes
01:32:35
which the United States would US is
01:32:36
driving is driving this and we're just
01:32:39
you know it's it's a it's a combination
01:32:42
of both and by the way Israel is a
01:32:45
country with 9 million people in it. I
01:32:47
mean it's it's the Israeli government.
01:32:49
Um but there also elements of the US
01:32:50
government. The head of SenCom you know
01:32:52
is in favor of this. There are a number
01:32:54
of Republican senators who are in favor
01:32:56
of this who are lying. For example,
01:32:58
here's one, I think, interesting point,
01:33:00
um, that's a statement of fact. There's
01:33:01
no American intelligence, this is a
01:33:04
statement of fact, that suggests Iran is
01:33:07
in the process of assembling a nuclear
01:33:09
weapon or within months of doing so.
01:33:11
There's none. And yet Tom Cotton of
01:33:14
Arkansas, the chairman of the intel
01:33:16
Senate Intel Committee, is out there
01:33:17
saying, you know, we know that they're
01:33:19
doing this. Well, actually, you don't
01:33:20
know that. That's not true. Whether he
01:33:21
believes it or not, I can't, you know, I
01:33:23
can't say, but that's that's a lie. Our
01:33:25
intel does not say that. period. So why
01:33:28
so they're lying because industrial uh
01:33:31
military-industrial complex? Yeah. I
01:33:33
mean I think there a whole it's not it's
01:33:36
not as simple as OB wants it. I mean I
01:33:38
think this is a very complicated
01:33:40
um coalition of aligned interests but
01:33:44
whatever their motives I don't even need
01:33:46
to know their motives. This is not a
01:33:49
timetable that we need to adhere to.
01:33:51
It's a completely artificial timetable.
01:33:53
The president has done his best to
01:33:56
resolve this diplomatically. That's
01:33:57
clearly his stated preference. He said
01:33:58
it a million times. And he's being
01:34:00
bumrushed into making a very uh
01:34:05
snap decision that could have bigger
01:34:09
consequences than we're thinking
01:34:10
through. So, I'm very concerned about
01:34:12
it.
01:34:14
What's your thoughts here? Can Iran have
01:34:17
a nuclear weapon? And should the United
01:34:20
States participate in if they do have um
01:34:25
one imminently which is a big debate
01:34:27
obviously
01:34:29
should we be involved in uh stopping
01:34:32
them or should we be doing negotiations
01:34:34
soft power etc. I think this is where
01:34:38
I'm glad that it's President Trump in
01:34:40
the seat. I think he's shown a
01:34:42
consistent desire to offramp all of
01:34:44
these conflicts and if he and Witoff
01:34:49
can hopefully hold the line with BB and
01:34:51
everybody else, I think we're way way
01:34:53
way better off. But you see this like
01:34:56
every time we're on the verge of
01:34:57
victory, somebody in the
01:34:59
military-industrial complex invents
01:35:01
some, you know, escalation of something
01:35:04
so that we can just go to war. It's the
01:35:06
the answer always seems to be let's go
01:35:08
to war or let's support a war or let's
01:35:10
enable a war. And the bull work to that
01:35:13
has been the president. If we go to war,
01:35:16
Tucker's right, this totally screws
01:35:18
everything up. I mean, you could see oil
01:35:22
double double. What What happens to the
01:35:25
economy of the world, of world GDP, of
01:35:28
everything, of inflation if you have oil
01:35:30
at 100 bucks a barrel, 112 bucks a
01:35:32
barrel? It's not good.
01:35:35
So, you have to wonder like why would
01:35:37
people want this escalation? Who wants
01:35:39
this escalation? And you see that it's
01:35:44
deeply beneficial for America to avoid
01:35:46
anything calamitous happening here. So I
01:35:48
hope we find an off-ramp and I hope that
01:35:51
the president gets his way. One thing
01:35:53
people should know about Iran is that
01:35:56
there is a massive demographic switch
01:35:59
happening here. You can see a chart. Is
01:36:02
this from your paid newsletter site? Uh
01:36:04
this is Yeah, this is from
01:36:05
chimoth.subsect.com.
01:36:06
$1,000 a year, $700 a month. You get to
01:36:09
have lunch with him twice a year. Is
01:36:10
this is this from choose your
01:36:12
responsible party.org? What's it called?
01:36:14
No, this is from founderun university
01:36:16
application coming in for around the
01:36:18
world. Uh here we go. Take a take your
01:36:21
uh nicotine patch and come to founder
01:36:23
university. Iran 2020 uh if you look at
01:36:28
the number of millennials, Gen Xers, uh
01:36:31
this is not a boomer country and they're
01:36:33
going to have a revolution when all
01:36:35
those 30 year olds you see there, that
01:36:37
big fat middle, 30 and 40 year olds who
01:36:40
are on VPNs right now and reading and
01:36:43
watching what's happening in the West.
01:36:46
You do not need to interfere with this
01:36:47
country. You just need to let those 30
01:36:49
year olds become 40 and 50 year olds and
01:36:51
take over the country. We need to
01:36:53
negotiate heavily. The idea of going in
01:36:55
there and creating a war with Iran is
01:36:58
exactly probably what those older people
01:36:59
want. Demographics are destiny. Uh and
01:37:01
this there's an amazing actual Anthony
01:37:04
Bourdain episode from Iran and it was he
01:37:06
said it was his favorite episode. Rest
01:37:07
in peace Anthony Bourdain. But the
01:37:09
demographics here are just going to
01:37:10
drive this change. Your ability as a
01:37:11
moderator to cover so much ground. Thank
01:37:14
you. Wow. Compliment. All right. This is
01:37:17
a hard turn to make, Tucker, but this
01:37:19
week's All-In podcast is brought to you
01:37:21
by the Trump card. Everybody go get a
01:37:24
Trump card and use the promo code J
01:37:26
promo code JCAL. And I uh just full
01:37:29
disclosure, get paid $500,000 every time
01:37:32
you buy a Trump card. But the Trump card
01:37:34
website is up. Use the promo code JCAL
01:37:36
10% off. Tucker 12% off. And Saxy Pooh
01:37:40
for 15% off. 15,000 15,000 people have
01:37:45
signed up. That's $75 billion there if
01:37:48
you convert them all. Let's go. I mean,
01:37:50
I I I'm an idiot because I proposed this
01:37:52
years ago for $500,000 and you know what
01:37:54
the genius of Trump is? He made it gold
01:37:57
and added a zero. You have You have
01:37:59
consistently proven to your friends that
01:38:00
you mispriced by an order of magnitude
01:38:03
typically two. Now I add a zero every
01:38:05
time. All right. Listen, thank you
01:38:07
Tucker for coming on. What's the website
01:38:09
to get our nicotine? Uh Alps. Alps.
01:38:12
Alps. What? I want the website. Als.com.
01:38:14
Alpouch.com. All right, Tucker, you got
01:38:16
to get us in on this. We need
01:38:18
alpouch.comallin.
01:38:20
We need an all-in branded one. Okay.
01:38:22
With the flavor of What's the flavor,
01:38:24
Chimamoth, we should do here. What's the
01:38:25
flavor? Can we do a burgundy money?
01:38:28
That's why I'm in. But how do we get How
01:38:30
do we How do we get promoing this? We
01:38:32
need to get some We need to get in on
01:38:34
this. I would say like it should taste
01:38:35
like a 2001 Meetto. Can you do that? Can
01:38:38
you get the team on a Metto flavor for
01:38:40
us? It's I'm going to send Tucker a
01:38:42
bottle. I am uh sending this in right
01:38:45
now. We're to start with barata flavored
01:38:47
to then go from there. I would if you
01:38:49
can make a coollette steak for me. A
01:38:51
rare koollette steak would be great as a
01:38:53
flavor. A wagu
01:38:55
would be great. Sax, what do you got for
01:38:56
a flavor here? Just something minty.
01:38:58
Maybe a little minty. Okay. Minty fresh
01:39:00
cuz you want to get the breath going.
01:39:02
This is dual purpose. Why chew gum when
01:39:04
you can just go right to a pouch? There.
01:39:06
There it goes. Clip that. I just texted
01:39:09
I texted the factory and I said we need
01:39:11
specially branded ALP for Allin.
01:39:14
Let's go. You think I'm kidding? We're
01:39:16
in BD mode. We're in BD mode. We're not
01:39:18
kidding either. We're in BD mode here at
01:39:19
Allin. Allin.com. Come to the summit.
01:39:22
Tucker, why don't you come to the summit
01:39:23
in September? What are you doing? You
01:39:24
want to come? Done. It'd be fun to As
01:39:26
long as it's not it's not the end is um
01:39:29
grouse season, so I can't I'm not
01:39:30
allowed to leave during grrow season
01:39:32
because I've got dogs. But um is it
01:39:34
before the end of September? September
01:39:36
8th and 789 I think it is. So yeah. Oh
01:39:41
brow flavor pouch. Those that's a little
01:39:44
g it's a little gamey for a nicotine
01:39:46
pouch but I'll think about it. We'll
01:39:47
think take it under advising. Too gy.
01:39:49
All right everybody. We missed you.
01:39:51
Sultan of science. We'll break your
01:39:52
chops but we wish you were here. David
01:39:54
Saxs the miss you buddy. See you in LA
01:39:57
hopefully at the all-in tequila lunch
01:40:00
later this month. Chamath Poly Hapatia
01:40:04
great to see you. Good luck with your
01:40:05
health and for my guy Tucker Carlson.
01:40:10
Alpouch.com/allin.
01:40:12
Get your promo codes going. This is the
01:40:13
number one podcast in the world after
01:40:15
the Tucker Carlson show. My last shout
01:40:17
out. I would like to thank Robin Hood
01:40:18
for sending me their gold card. You
01:40:20
finally Yeah. Sax and I have had it for
01:40:22
100 days. I shhat on American Express
01:40:25
because I think they're just trash and
01:40:28
then they they reached out to me and it
01:40:30
was so ridiculous for the black card.
01:40:32
No, they they didn't even offer me the
01:40:34
black card. They said, "Here's a chance
01:40:36
for you to apply for the black card."
01:40:38
And I was like, "This is this just
01:40:39
proves so insulting. So insulting." They
01:40:42
have no idea who anybody is. They're
01:40:44
nagging you. They're I mean, literally,
01:40:47
this is the number one podcast in the
01:40:48
world, bro. I mean, I generally if any
01:40:52
of the four of us ran a credit card
01:40:54
company and we decided that we were
01:40:56
going to have a $10,000 a year credit
01:40:58
card for big spenders, what you would do
01:41:00
is actually run a query to find who are
01:41:03
the biggest that you already have and
01:41:06
upgrade them so that they're paying you
01:41:08
10,000. Who who wants to do the all-in
01:41:10
card with us? Email jasonallin.com.
01:41:12
BD lines are open. We're going to
01:41:14
monetize this brand. All right,
01:41:16
everybody. Thanks again, Tucker. You're
01:41:17
awesome. We appreciate you and best the
01:41:20
greatest. See you next time. Byebye.
01:41:23
Love you besties. Love you. Love you s.
01:41:26
I got you.
01:41:29
We'll let your winners ride.
01:41:32
Rainman David
01:41:36
and it said we open sourced it to the
01:41:38
fans and they've just gone crazy with
01:41:40
it. Love you. Queen of Kino
01:41:44
[Music]
01:41:50
besties are gone.
01:41:52
That is my dog taking notice your
01:41:54
driveways.
01:41:57
Oh man, my appetiter will be. You should
01:42:00
all just get a room and just have one
01:42:02
big huge orgy cuz they're all just
01:42:03
useless. It's like this like sexual
01:42:05
tension that we just need to release
01:42:06
somehow.
01:42:08
Wet your feet. Wet your feet. her feet.
01:42:13
We need to get Mercury's back.
01:42:18
[Music]
01:42:23
I'm going all in.

Episode Highlights

  • Immigration Protests in LA
    Protests erupt in Los Angeles following ICE raids, leading to significant unrest and arrests.
    “Protests broke out after ICE raided Home Depot.”
    @ 04m 34s
    June 13, 2025
  • Military Use in Civil Unrest
    The military's role in domestic issues sparks debate on legality and necessity.
    “It seems like the point of having a military is to keep foreigners from burning your cities.”
    @ 19m 50s
    June 13, 2025
  • National Guard Controversy
    The necessity of deploying the National Guard during civil unrest is questioned.
    “If the local police can't handle what's going on, of course they should be brought in.”
    @ 22m 00s
    June 13, 2025
  • The Melting Pot Concept
    The melting pot idea is discussed as a positive aspect of American culture.
    “The melting pot's good.”
    @ 30m 56s
    June 13, 2025
  • The Role of Immigration
    A discussion on immigration trends over the last 50 years, highlighting the consistent influx of around 3 million immigrants per year.
    “This is a country of immigrants.”
    @ 37m 19s
    June 13, 2025
  • Economic Optimism
    Recent economic data shows promising trends, including a predicted GDP growth of 3.8% for Q2.
    “Things look really good right now.”
    @ 49m 01s
    June 13, 2025
  • The Great Depression's Lessons
    A discussion on how bank failures led to the Great Depression and its relevance today.
    “It's a systemic risk. One bank failure leads to the next one.”
    @ 54m 50s
    June 13, 2025
  • Jerome Powell's Dilemma
    The pressure on Jerome Powell to cut interest rates amidst political implications.
    “If Jerome Powell stays politicized, his incentive will be to keep interest rates where they are.”
    @ 01h 01m 21s
    June 13, 2025
  • Tucker's Take on BBB
    Tucker Carlson criticizes the chaotic nature of the BBB, calling it unmanageable and undemocratic.
    “This is just not the way to do it.”
    @ 01h 15m 38s
    June 13, 2025
  • Elon and Trump: A Profound Friendship
    Chamat reflects on the friendship between Elon Musk and Trump, expressing hope for their reconciliation.
    “I was bummed.”
    @ 01h 24m 44s
    June 13, 2025
  • Iran Escalation Concerns
    Discussion on the potential military action against Iran and its implications for U.S. policy.
    “The downsides are really kind of overwhelming.”
    @ 01h 31m 35s
    June 13, 2025
  • Demographics and Change in Iran
    A look at the younger generation in Iran and their potential for change.
    “Demographics are destiny.”
    @ 01h 36m 58s
    June 13, 2025

Episode Quotes

Key Moments

  • Tucker Returns02:52
  • Military Deployment19:50
  • Melting Pot30:56
  • Immigration Debate37:00
  • City Cleanliness44:25
  • Systemic Risk54:50
  • Republican Majority1:14:08
  • Demographic Shift1:35:56

Words per Minute Over Time

Vibes Breakdown

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