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All-In Summit: Nuclear fusion and the potential for energy abundance

September 22, 202344:42
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a lot of forecasters estimate that
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energy production and demand on Earth
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will grow to roughly 2x from where we
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sit today by the end of the century and
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I think that there's other ways to look
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at the demand forecast which is that you
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can look at GDP per capita and energy
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consumption per capita over time and you
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always see that for every one percent
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increase in GDP per capita you see a 1.2
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percent roughly increase in energy
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consumption per capita and by that
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measure based on population and GDP
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growth through the century
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we will need to produce five times more
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energy than we make on Earth today by
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the end of the century and you can't do
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that by just pumping oil and gas out of
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the ground
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we need another technology or we need
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you know some renewable systems to scale
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up more quickly
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and fusion presents this great kind of
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sea change opportunity moment for how we
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make energy leveraging the technology of
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the Sun and so I'm really excited today
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to invite the two most funded most high
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profile Fusion technology entrepreneurs
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uh Bob momgaard
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and David kirtley CEOs of um
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Commonwealth Fusion
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and helion Bob as the founder of
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Commonwealth spun out of MIT where he
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got his PhD in applied plasma physics
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and um he's raised more than two billion
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dollars from Global Investors you heard
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vinod talk about his original investment
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in Commonwealth yesterday after Bob will
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hear from David who founded helion after
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15 years as a principal investigator and
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fusion lead at msnw and before that
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seven years as a scientist for the Air
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Force research lab David got his PhD in
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aerospace engineering from Michigan
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helion's raised about 2.2 billion
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dollars since its founding
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with a recent massive 500 million dollar
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funding round LED by Sam Altman who we
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all know is the CEO of openai and
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formerly ran y combinator
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uh Sam invested 375 million dollars
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personally in that round so uh please
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join me they're each going to give a
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presentation and then we are going to
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come back and have a conversation with
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both of them at the same time please
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join me in welcoming Bob to the stage
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[Music]
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oh
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and it said we open source it to the
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fans and they've just gone crazy
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[Music]
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it's a lot of capital for Fusion it's
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exciting
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um so I'm setting off you know our
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science morning so we're gonna later
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hear about tiny things and viruses and
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I'm going to start by talking about the
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biggest thing there is
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which is the universe so this is a
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picture uh from the James Webb Telescope
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and what that is is the oldest galaxies
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that we can see and really what the
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James Webb's telescope is is a really
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fancy expensive camera to look at fusion
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power plants
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because that is everywhere you look it's
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fusion power plants fusion power plants
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are the things that built every single
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atom that's in all of you that's in all
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these buildings everywhere on earth and
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the reason it works that way is because
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the fusion reaction the reaction that
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happens inside all the stars it's
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actually the most prevalent reaction in
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the entire universe that reaction
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produces energy that's about 200 million
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times more energy per Mass used than a
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chemical reaction
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so when you think about anything in your
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life that's chemical oil gas 50 gigatons
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a year CO2 divided by like
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order 100 million and if you replace
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that process with a fusion process
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that's what you get at the end and
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that's why we can have
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billions of years old of a universe and
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billions of years old of our own planet
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and so what these companies are trying
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to do there's like 70 Fusion companies
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it's what we're trying to do is we're
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trying to take that reaction
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and put it in a bottle
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in a machine that we can build here
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and that we can build quickly
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so there's many different ways to build
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that type of machine we I would say
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today don't know what the penultimate
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Ultimate machine will look like but we
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know that we're close enough to actually
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start building them
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and if you do this you end up with a new
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type of power plant you end up with a
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power plant that looks like a power
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plant we already do meaning you can put
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it somewhere it generates electricity it
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generates heat that you can take to
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electricity you can plug it in the grid
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you can Finance it you can use existing
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Supply chains
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but now it doesn't have emissions and it
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doesn't have basically it doesn't have
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any fuel
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and every one of your energy uses for
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your entire life could be fulfilled with
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like a single glass of water and so
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that's like a sea change in how you
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think about relation between our species
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the planet and energy
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so question is can you actually build
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such machines
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well right now
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we're we're building them around the
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world
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so this is a picture of combo Fusion
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systems site it's in a suburb about an
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hour outside of Boston and this two
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years ago was a forest uh old military
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base and in the upper uh side of this is
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a factory a factory to make
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magnets key pieces of fusion machines
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but down in front is a prototype uh
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fusion power plant it's a machine we
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call spark and that machine is the
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basically the culmination of about 60
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years of science uh done around the
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world we've been working on Fusion since
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actually before we split the atom and in
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that time the scientists at National
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Labs and universities have gotten better
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and better at building successive
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generations of those machines and in
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fact the performance of those machines
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and the metrics you care about if you're
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into plasma physics like I am those that
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performance has gone up faster than
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Moore's Law
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and it's now sitting at the point where
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you can almost get more power out from
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this reaction than it took to make the
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reaction start
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to do that what you're building is
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You're Building machines that literally
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like make Star stuff they're machines
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that have
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plasmas inside them that are 100 million
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degrees
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it's like five times hotter than the
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center of this the sun you know
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Fahrenheit Celsius doesn't really matter
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100 million huge number
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and
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and they do this
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um they do this using basically like
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stuff that we already know how to build
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it's kind of a unique situation like
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this is the size of a Walmart built by
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companies that build Walmarts
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and it's got buildings that house
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equipment that is like equipment that
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you use to do electrified natural gas or
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solar plants and in the center and that
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square in the center is a room
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where you put the fusion machine
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and that's what that room looks like
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and this we just opened this room like
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three four four or five days ago
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um and that Center hole in the middle is
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where we're going to start assembling a
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fusion machine that will make about 100
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megawatts of heat at somewhere around
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there will be more power out than in
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maybe even like 10 times more power out
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than in and that's based on all this
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science that's been done with a series
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of partners that include MIT National
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Labs around the world all peer-reviewed
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published and what the predictions are
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going to be and we think that this
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machine will be the first commercial
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machine to make more power up than in
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you can see on the bottom what it will
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look like when it's installed there and
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we're about halfway through the
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manufacturer and assembly of uh this
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machine so when you think about two
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billion dollars raised like tough Tech
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and like what it takes to actually you
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know Bend curves and climb it this is
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the type of stuff that you have to be
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willing to do you have to be willing to
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take science Cutting Edge
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wrap it with the ability to execute
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things like manufacturing and
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Construction in a package that you could
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scale because our climate crisis is
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going to require us to build somewhere
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on the order of
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ten thousand to a hundred thousand power
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plants
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so today there's about 60 000 power
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plants in the world
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and so you're not going to solve this by
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like making little things you know solve
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this by making big bets big changes and
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that's even just to replace what we have
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today
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we talk about 5xing the amount of energy
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we're going to use uh on the planet
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Earth Humanity like that's one of the
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largest construction booms in human
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history and so we're trying to get it
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started here and one of the great things
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that you can see about Fusion is that
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once you get the formula figured out
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once you figure out how to build one of
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these machines you get a thing that
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makes a lot of energy out of a small
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thing that you manufacture
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thing that you build a factory to make
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more of
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and it's a factory that kind of looks
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like an automobile Factory or like a
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rocket Factory in fact a lot of the
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people at this company came exactly from
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those areas that were trained in new
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space and new Automotive
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which means like once you figure this
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out you could build lots of these very
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quickly and so this is some pictures
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inside that factory on that site of us
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building the different pieces that go
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inside that Fusion machine
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and we'll start to assemble that machine
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uh
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later this year and turn it on and let's
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sort of 2025 time frame and get to Q
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greater than one more power out than n
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for the first time uh probably early
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2026.
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and that's part of a long-term plan that
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we've been on in the last five years
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since launching Commonwealth Fusion
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systems we start with the science that
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we already know how to do that's today
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you can go and see Fusion machines
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around the world we built out 150 Fusion
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machines at National Labs and
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universities coupled with an entirely
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new type of technology in our case an
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extremely strong magnet a magnet is made
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out of a new type of superconductor not
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the one that you read about recently
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that was all bunk but the uh the one
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that was previous Nobel Prize that
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allows us to go to extremely high
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magnetic fields which allows us to build
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these machines that you could not have
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built five years ago they're 10 times
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smaller for the same performance using
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the same science that we already know
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how to do and they set up a power plant
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like the one on the right that is like a
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400 megawatt power plant like the size
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of a coal plant so you can you can
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imagine going to a coal site
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taking out the boiler and putting in
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this new kit
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once it's proven and turning it on
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pushing a button and having a whole
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bunch of Heat come out and a reaction
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that is the most common reaction in the
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universe
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take your hand off the button stopping
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it put a string again and going
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and doing that in a way that you could
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then build over and over again that's
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like the big promise
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in terms of where people are
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is it's the beginning of a race about
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six billion dollars invested in Fusion
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which means that one of like the the
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most invested of the new energy
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technology companies so when you think
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about geothermal or batteries this is
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actually an explanation battery this is
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actually a similar scale and it's going
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through a history of Technology path
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it's like well worn and we can actually
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Milestone where all these companies are
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and all these techniques are you know
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today you can go and see lots of
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companies and lots of labs where they
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make plasmas that sort of like the idea
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of an airplane
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there's some that can get Plasma's
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pretty hot there's a few including the
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companies we're talking about here who
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can actually get plasmas into the right
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conditions the 100 million degrees that
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are insulated well enough that are in
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the conditions for that reaction to
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happen
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and now we're at step four which is to
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make these things make more power out
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than in Q grade and one and we know
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that's doable because actually in
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December a very large laser in
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California called nif created those
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conditions granted in a completely
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non-commercially relevant way but in a
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scientifically relevant way created for
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an instant picosecond those conditions
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and now it's a race to build
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things like spark to do that in a
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commercial way
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and after that there'll be plenty left
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to do but we'll know that we've taken a
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scientific idea and turned it into an
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engineering project and a scaling
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project
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and we don't know what the world will do
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with that
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it's potentially something that could
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you know really disrupt things and I
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think as I think about everyone planning
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you've got to be able to plan for that
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kind of be able to build a fast track
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on-ramp to these extremely disruptive
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Technologies
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and whether it's Fusion or Gene editing
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I think that's where the future is and
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it's an interdisciplinary problem and
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it's a problem that takes audacity
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Capital smart people all working
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together so thank you that's that's
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where we're at I'm looking forward to
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the discussion thank you
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and I'm excited to to welcome a
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colleague here David curtly tell you the
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other uh exciting things about Fusion
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all right perfect thank you very much
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Bob so my name is David Curley I'm a
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founder of helion energy I'm excited to
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talk about our approach to techno to
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Fusion that we think rapidly accelerates
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the timeline for fusion
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um Bob I think did a great job of
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talking about the history of fusion
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where we come from and the speed of what
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we want to get there I'm going to be a
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little more selfish and talk about
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myself today and give you a little bit
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of the the fusion Journey I've been on
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and why I've come from being a fusion
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skeptic that I think many people in this
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audience have
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so I went into school in the academic my
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academic part of my career to do
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something what I thought was important
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for the world and David did a really
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great job of talking about the impact of
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energy and the cost of electricity on
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the world so I said great I'm gonna go
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solve that problem
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um and a little naively look to the
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universe and said great they're fusions
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out there it's where most of the mass
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and the energy in the universe comes
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from I should do that and we should
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bring that here on Earth
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um got into it I actually became an
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expert in some of the inertial type
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approaches like the laser systems
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actually my specialty was anti-matter
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anti-matter is cool but what what I
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learned was that actually the
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Technologies of the time when I was
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learning that I learned in school those
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approach us and we all sort of see that
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in the world they're going to work but
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when they do I will have already retired
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if not like not actually be alive to
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turn on the machines I was going to go
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build and so I pivoted my career went
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and built space propulsion systems and
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Rockets plasma thrusters whole Hall
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thrusters ion engines that kind of thing
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and it wasn't until I met our core
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founding team that I saw another way to
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do Fusion uh that potentially rapidly
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skips over some of the steps of what
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others are doing so that's what I want
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to introduce you to today
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um our technology the way we want to do
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Fusion that we believe gets gets
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Humanity to Fusion as soon as possible
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so um Bob did a great job of talking
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about magnetic confinements of steady
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Fusion trying to replicate what happens
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in the sun there's inertial confinement
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which is very high intensity picosecond
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pulsed fusion and we do something which
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takes some some of both of those
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approaches
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um we cleverly call it Magneto inertial
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Fusion which does the sun in a bottle
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take a magnetic field to hold that 100
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million degrees but rather than trying
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to hold on to it it get it hot enough
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and ignite it we actually then squeeze
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it as fast as possible with very large
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pulsed electric currents and so that's
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what we've been able to build today one
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of the key this is a picture of our
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sixth generation machine that we have up
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in the Seattle area
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and one of the keys to the approach to
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this Fusion we're going to dig into the
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technology a little bit and then talk
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about the benefits but one of the key is
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is that what we focus on is the
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electricity part and I and I think that
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for me getting into Fusion wasn't to
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explore cool new technology is it was
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actually to generate electricity and so
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that's been our focus and so how we do
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that is a little unique and we believe
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that lets us build systems faster and
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smaller and so let's dig into that
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um you've seen some of the tokamex
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systems with looks like big Donuts uh
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the laser system is a giant sphere so we
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decide we should go and do a cylinder
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um and so these systems are long
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elongated cylinders where we have on
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either end we have our fuel injector
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called formation but this is where we
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put in the fuel put in this mixture of
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hydrogen and helium that becomes the
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Fusion fuel a center acceleration
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section where we accelerate that to a
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core and in that core is where we
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compress think about a piston in a
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combustion engine or we we can compress
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that Fusion fuel and then also number
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four on here is electricity recapture
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for our systems we require big capacitor
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Banks it's actually one of the hardest
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parts of our technology is the
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electronics the power electronics and so
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we have a dedicated system to do that
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and it's one of the enabling
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Technologies for this way to do Fusion
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is that when this was first theorized in
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the 1950s we had no idea how to build
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those pulse Power Systems that could
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reliably and repeatedly do this but we
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can do it today so here's a little
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animation of how these systems work on
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either end we inject our Fusion fuel
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we heat it at this point it's relatively
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cold it's about 5 million degrees or so
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we accelerate to the center compression
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area where we didn't squeeze it
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increasing pressure and density and
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temperature until we get to Fusion
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conditions over 100 million degrees
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these helions and deuterons fuse to form
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helium or alpha particles and protons
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those are trapped in that magnetic field
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and as that that heat that that hot
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plasma expands we pull that energy out
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directly directly recapturing that
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electricity sounds pretty Fantastical
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I'm showing you a lot of um you know 3D
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drawings and all that stuff the the fact
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is though we built this
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um
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and this was the key for me this is when
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I went from I was a skeptic and then I
00:18:07
we had this cool idea and we went out to
00:18:09
try to build it but we actually had to
00:18:10
build the thing we had to build it turn
00:18:12
it on prove that technology and so we
00:18:14
did that in 2008 we built a machine that
00:18:17
did thermonuclear for Fusion for the
00:18:19
first time uh that machine was about a
00:18:21
million and a half bucks
00:18:23
and it and it set records for
00:18:24
temperature density pressure I
00:18:28
personally helped build that thing a
00:18:29
little bit they don't let me touch
00:18:30
wrenches too much
00:18:32
um and actually produced Fusion
00:18:34
reactions with it and measured those
00:18:36
reactions and at that point I said look
00:18:38
holy [ __ ] we may have the answer to this
00:18:40
let's go try to figure out how to build
00:18:41
a business around it and as I think
00:18:43
we'll probably talk today that turns out
00:18:45
that's hard too
00:18:47
um but in the process of doing that
00:18:48
we've now built six machines that do
00:18:50
Fusion
00:18:51
um the light latest one we call Trenta
00:18:53
that one exceeded 100 million degrees
00:18:55
we're the first private company to do
00:18:57
that
00:18:58
um we did a DD Fusion we actually did D
00:19:01
helium-3 Fusion where we actually took
00:19:02
rare helium-3 infused it with deuterium
00:19:05
that again we think we're the first
00:19:06
company to ever do that maybe even the
00:19:08
first group to ever do that and then the
00:19:10
most important thing I think is we need
00:19:12
to recapture this electricity and so
00:19:15
that's the first machine we built with
00:19:16
private funding in 2014 was a machine
00:19:19
that took energy from those capacitors
00:19:21
and those pulse power and then very
00:19:23
quickly in microseconds put that energy
00:19:25
into a magnetic core and then and then
00:19:27
we then recovered that magnetic energy
00:19:29
back to the capacitors the key there is
00:19:31
we did that at 95 efficiency
00:19:34
and if you can do that that means the
00:19:36
fusion only has to do the five percent
00:19:37
and so we believe that means that you
00:19:39
can build Fusion systems orders of
00:19:41
magnitude smaller and faster and skip
00:19:43
over some of the big steps of cooling
00:19:45
towers and steam turbines and
00:19:46
inefficient systems you have to do and a
00:19:48
lot of that comes from looking at Fusion
00:19:50
not from just looking at the science
00:19:53
which is really critical but also
00:19:54
looking at the engineering I want to
00:19:56
build power plants that make electricity
00:19:57
and if that's your singular Focus if
00:20:00
that's your goal if that's where you're
00:20:01
you're targeted you make design
00:20:03
engineering decisions to get there
00:20:05
faster so that's what we were able to do
00:20:07
I think that a lot of the private Fusion
00:20:09
companies in the world are also now
00:20:10
targeting electricity how do we get
00:20:12
there and how do we get there fast
00:20:15
um so that's what we're doing now we're
00:20:16
building actually uh so in the pictures
00:20:18
you see here on the top right that's our
00:20:20
seventh generation machine we call this
00:20:21
one Polaris we're building that system
00:20:23
today up in Everett Washington outside
00:20:25
of Seattle uh and installing it in our
00:20:28
generator building
00:20:29
um we actually have an operational
00:20:30
plasma injector machine I love saying
00:20:32
plasma injector machine
00:20:34
um to actually do the fusion to start
00:20:36
that Fusion process to try to get to
00:20:38
even higher temperatures than that 100
00:20:40
million degrees that we did before and
00:20:42
we started manufacturing Mass
00:20:43
manufacturing those key components that
00:20:45
we can't get anywhere else in the world
00:20:47
of capacitors
00:20:48
um and so we're we believe the first U.S
00:20:50
manufacturer in decades to start
00:20:52
manufacturing capacitors here in the US
00:20:54
maybe we'll sell them one day but right
00:20:56
now we're using everything we can make
00:20:57
for Polaris for that next system
00:21:01
um and the exciting announcement
00:21:03
announcing thing uh it's exciting thing
00:21:05
we announced last earlier this year is
00:21:07
that we had our first customer it's kind
00:21:09
of a good thing for a fusion business
00:21:11
um and so uh we have our first customers
00:21:13
Microsoft we have a power purchase
00:21:15
agreement to build a power plant with
00:21:17
them to come online in 2028. uh This Is
00:21:20
50 megawatts 50 megawatts is about 40
00:21:22
000 homes
00:21:24
um and to do that in Washington state
00:21:25
it's pretty audacious goal uh five years
00:21:27
it's five very short years to go build a
00:21:30
system that makes commercial electricity
00:21:32
uh we believe we can do that because
00:21:33
we've built all these Fusion systems we
00:21:35
have an approach that actually radically
00:21:37
shrinks the amount of capital and the
00:21:39
timeline to build these and more
00:21:41
importantly we have that singular goal
00:21:43
of making electricity and getting it on
00:21:44
the grid is absolutely as fast as
00:21:46
possible
00:21:48
so that's a picture of the new generator
00:21:50
building we just built you can't see all
00:21:52
the manufacturing on the side there
00:21:54
um but I'm excited to be able to talk
00:21:57
today about the fusion business the
00:21:58
fusion industry and how we get from
00:22:01
being a fusion skeptic like I was to be
00:22:03
using a fusion Optimist and really an
00:22:06
Optimus for the future we need clean
00:22:08
power and we need it now thank you very
00:22:10
much
00:22:10
[Applause]
00:22:16
thank you
00:22:16
[Music]
00:22:21
the fourth seat
00:22:23
[Music]
00:22:35
thank you guys for being here
00:22:37
um this is obviously an exciting
00:22:40
challenge
00:22:42
a technically difficult one an important
00:22:44
one and an expensive one
00:22:46
I just want to talk a little bit about
00:22:48
the end state for each of you your point
00:22:50
of view
00:22:51
we think about energy prices there's a
00:22:54
lot of ways think about it but dollars
00:22:55
per kilowatt hours or pennies per
00:22:57
kilowatt hour right we buy power off the
00:22:59
grid in the U.S for 12 to 15 cents a
00:23:02
kilowatt hour
00:23:03
where do you guys think
00:23:05
these systems end up when you kind of
00:23:08
think about the the amortization cost
00:23:10
and what you're going to have to charge
00:23:11
to build these systems once you're at
00:23:13
scale once you're rolling these systems
00:23:15
out at scale what's your end goal for
00:23:17
price per kilowatt hour I think that I
00:23:20
think that's exactly the perfect
00:23:21
question to lead in
00:23:23
um that if you're doing a new technology
00:23:25
like this and your goal is electricity
00:23:27
it has to be competitive and it has to
00:23:29
be competitive at scale at large scale
00:23:31
and fusion has a nice opportunity to do
00:23:33
that you talk about what's the cost of
00:23:36
electricity it comes from op-x and capex
00:23:38
and Opex right our fuel for a 50
00:23:41
megawatt system you can uh with a pickup
00:23:44
truck worth of fuel you can actually
00:23:46
power that system for a decade and it's
00:23:48
clean and it's safe and it's it's low
00:23:51
cost we don't even include it in the
00:23:52
Opex budget the fuel cost is so low and
00:23:55
if we can get to a state where we have
00:23:56
less of phds in the control room the
00:23:59
actual operating cost then becomes
00:24:00
pretty negligible for those systems and
00:24:02
so then you're left with the capital and
00:24:03
so I think that's been our Focus is how
00:24:06
do we minimize the capital of those
00:24:07
systems and so we can get to a point
00:24:10
where we can be really cost competitive
00:24:11
and I'll give you straight answers is
00:24:13
that our goal with these with our
00:24:15
approach to Fusion where we directly
00:24:17
recapture the energy is to get to a cent
00:24:19
a kilowatt hour or less and you can do
00:24:21
that with Opex
00:24:24
I think an important point about this is
00:24:26
uh
00:24:28
you build these things they're capex you
00:24:30
eventually get very good at building
00:24:31
them and so when you look at the
00:24:33
probability curve uh you have very very
00:24:35
low numbers eventually like a system
00:24:38
like this is basically what the interest
00:24:40
rate is
00:24:41
is what the price power is
00:24:43
because you're just building capital and
00:24:45
there's no operating cost there's no
00:24:47
fuel and the capital you're building is
00:24:49
an order of magnitude less stuff than
00:24:52
say renewable so it allows you to get to
00:24:54
these very low numbers so
00:24:57
you guys have ever been on stage
00:24:59
together before like this
00:25:01
yeah I think so that's sitting next to
00:25:03
each other yeah right put a little extra
00:25:06
so I'm trying to yeah I'm trying to set
00:25:07
up a little Tesla Edison rivalry here AC
00:25:10
DC
00:25:13
but no no seriously there there is a
00:25:16
a different architectural approaches you
00:25:18
each have fairly distinct approaches to
00:25:21
getting these plasma to a dense enough
00:25:23
high enough energy State condition so
00:25:26
that they fuse and produce energy very
00:25:29
different approaches
00:25:31
and there are other approaches I think
00:25:32
there's by my track roughly six general
00:25:35
architectures for Fusion technology and
00:25:37
you guys are the experts tell me if I'm
00:25:39
wrong
00:25:40
how do we know you guys win why does
00:25:42
Tesla win why does Edison win and isn't
00:25:45
it the case that ultimately the price of
00:25:47
power is going to win and so whatever
00:25:49
architecture gets to the lowest price of
00:25:51
power is going to take the whole Market
00:25:52
yeah it's a really good question
00:25:54
um first you have to make it work right
00:25:58
like there's a lot of architectures and
00:26:00
like the odds that they all work are low
00:26:02
so we've taken the tact of like find the
00:26:06
architectures that you know are going to
00:26:07
work what's the lowest science risk that
00:26:09
you can do because that price of power
00:26:10
it's not so much architecture dependent
00:26:12
it's learning rate dependent right at
00:26:15
the end of the day the amount of stuff
00:26:16
in these things is all about the same
00:26:18
and So the faster you get there the
00:26:22
better your Cycles are the lower you're
00:26:24
going to drive that cost and there's a
00:26:26
Time component to that too we don't have
00:26:28
the time to wait so if Fusion was
00:26:31
available today we're buying it like we
00:26:32
you know no no shortage of customer
00:26:34
interest
00:26:35
but the real energy transition is in the
00:26:40
next decade and so we need something
00:26:41
that we can get there like now as soon
00:26:43
as possible so it's not so much like
00:26:45
that in state it might be interesting
00:26:47
from a futurist standpoint of what that
00:26:48
end state is it's the path to get there
00:26:50
that's going to really determine it
00:26:52
yeah I think our Focus has been Bobs is
00:26:55
mine as well is how do we move as fast
00:26:57
as possible how do we iterate how do we
00:26:58
test how do we build these because it's
00:27:00
that time that's that's driving and and
00:27:02
there's a huge Market you know 3 000
00:27:04
gigawatts of fossil power it's not
00:27:06
necessarily the case that one of you is
00:27:08
going to win and one of you is going to
00:27:09
lose
00:27:10
no it's a huge Market it's one out of
00:27:12
every 12 like so it's absolutely huge
00:27:15
you think about the what's in front of
00:27:16
us to redo all the infrastructure like
00:27:18
we're there's no way a single company is
00:27:20
going to address that entire thing uh
00:27:22
and also it's not the case that like the
00:27:25
absolute ultimate you know optimized
00:27:27
thing is going to win it's going to be a
00:27:28
package thing like you know the car you
00:27:30
buy today the way you control the way
00:27:32
you drive it looks like the car that
00:27:33
Henry Ford built it's not optimized it's
00:27:36
not how you got there I have a two-part
00:27:39
question for you I think we all as you
00:27:42
know lay people not uh in the industry
00:27:44
and in the trenches in the arena with
00:27:46
you doing this our question is just and
00:27:49
just
00:27:50
very brief on this answer from each of
00:27:52
you because the second part is more
00:27:54
important I think what are the chances
00:27:56
uh that collectively the you know half
00:27:59
dozen startups actually get this done in
00:28:02
our lifetimes what do you put that at
00:28:04
you know let's say in the next 20 30
00:28:05
years what are the chances we actually
00:28:07
are this is a meaningful part of our
00:28:10
energy mixture in the next 20 or 30
00:28:12
years yeah 100 yeah that's 10 years if
00:28:15
you had to
00:28:16
scaling in the next 10. yep like because
00:28:19
3 000 gigawatts of replacement is going
00:28:20
to be hard okay well that that's the
00:28:22
need for it but okay you you're both
00:28:24
convinced it's going to happen
00:28:26
so then knowing that you know that
00:28:29
how do you advise the world to look at
00:28:31
global warming fossil fuels because
00:28:34
we're having this very vibrant debate
00:28:35
what does happen mean happen means net
00:28:38
positive energy no no like buy Power
00:28:41
into your refrigerator from Fusion
00:28:43
got it so then how would that inform how
00:28:47
we should look at fossil fuels because
00:28:50
you have a group of people who are
00:28:52
debating fossil fuels and it's become
00:28:55
quite religious with global warming Etc
00:28:57
you guys are
00:28:58
you know scientists who understand
00:29:00
global warming and everything do we need
00:29:02
to even worry about the energy mixture
00:29:04
today if you're going to get this done
00:29:06
and should we be sweating global warming
00:29:08
as much as we are fossil fuel use if the
00:29:11
solution is here you know like and you
00:29:13
guys are so confident it's going to be
00:29:14
there it's a good question yeah good
00:29:16
question 50 gigatons a year for 10 years
00:29:18
is a lot of carbon into the atmosphere
00:29:21
in a place where we are already at our
00:29:23
limits so like we need to do this
00:29:25
transition and we need to be ready to
00:29:26
build out at a very large scale every
00:29:28
zero carbon energy source that you have
00:29:30
because the energy needs that you we
00:29:34
talked about earlier they're terrifying
00:29:36
like if we need this solution for Fusion
00:29:39
but we also need the other things got it
00:29:40
so it's not even going to be enough to
00:29:42
solve that problem and then
00:29:44
two of the biggest problems the world
00:29:46
faces getting this carbon out of the
00:29:49
atmosphere and I guess water and both of
00:29:53
those a lot of the taking carbon out of
00:29:56
the atmosphere is an energy question
00:29:58
and desalinization is obviously an
00:30:00
energy question because you're going to
00:30:01
push water through screens so maybe just
00:30:05
briefly from each of you
00:30:07
your optimism for the world
00:30:09
knowing what you know from being in the
00:30:12
trenches every day
00:30:13
you know food insecurity
00:30:16
Energy Water all of these things you
00:30:19
know are seem to be really tied so so
00:30:22
should we be as pessimistic as I think
00:30:24
people in the world right now are now
00:30:26
how do you look at the world when you go
00:30:27
to bed at night so long term I mean I
00:30:29
think we should be very optimistic but
00:30:31
those problems exist today and we need
00:30:33
to be moving as fast as we can to get
00:30:34
there so where there's sun is shining we
00:30:36
should have solar panels where the wind
00:30:37
is blowing we should have wind power and
00:30:39
that's still not enough I believe anyway
00:30:41
and David mentioned the power uses
00:30:43
doubling over the over this decade I
00:30:46
think that that doesn't include
00:30:47
electrification carbon uh removal
00:30:51
hey I think it way underestimates what
00:30:54
we actually can do and what we can do if
00:30:57
the power the cost of powers is low
00:30:58
enough and it sidesteps the geopolitics
00:31:00
and some of the other challenges of
00:31:01
other low-cost sources of carbon-free
00:31:03
power so on the the question about how
00:31:06
it all ties together I look at it as in
00:31:09
the end there are only two fundamental
00:31:11
markets energy and creativity and like
00:31:14
with those two things notice they didn't
00:31:15
say human creativity right like with
00:31:18
those two things like you can do all
00:31:19
these other stuff right right and and so
00:31:22
like the faster we get to the things
00:31:23
that have massive scale in those two
00:31:26
things the better off we're going to be
00:31:28
are we investing enough confusion right
00:31:30
now because you guys are working with
00:31:32
the Venture Community I think largely I
00:31:34
don't understand why we're you know
00:31:36
spending all this money on Renewables
00:31:38
debating fossil fuels all this stuff and
00:31:41
and not really going for this I don't
00:31:43
want to call you what you're doing a
00:31:44
Hail Mary but it's a long ball and why
00:31:47
are we not just pushing a lot more
00:31:49
Government funding into this project if
00:31:51
it even had we talked about implied odds
00:31:53
yesterday over and over if this does
00:31:55
have a you know let's say they're
00:31:56
delusional and they're it's going to
00:31:58
happen is because they're Founders what
00:32:00
do you put it at the chances that they
00:32:01
succeed in the next 10 to 20. well I've
00:32:03
told investors that I've spoken with
00:32:04
that I think there's a hundred percent
00:32:06
chance that the portfolio of 70 Fusion
00:32:08
companies that exist today that are
00:32:09
pursuing this technology will succeed
00:32:12
and that we will get
00:32:13
in the next 20 viewers at scale right so
00:32:18
um I don't know which architecture wins
00:32:20
I don't know which company wins I don't
00:32:21
know who gets there first I don't know
00:32:22
how quickly they each of them can scale
00:32:23
it's hard for me to handicap that and I
00:32:25
don't have you know a sovereign wealth
00:32:27
funds capacity to build a portfolio of
00:32:30
these Investments but that would be the
00:32:31
right strategy I've told folks I think
00:32:33
that the index on where things are
00:32:35
valued today if you took all the fusion
00:32:36
companies and their total market value
00:32:37
today I would 100 buy that [ __ ] index
00:32:40
yeah so that would argue for one of the
00:32:43
things I thought was inspiring chamoth
00:32:45
about yesterday's discussion was you
00:32:47
were talking about you know how do we
00:32:49
allocate resources and then we were
00:32:50
being challenged by some of the speakers
00:32:51
well what can you do and I think this
00:32:54
framing where you're talking about
00:32:55
Capital allocation
00:32:57
you guys are convinced you're going to
00:32:58
do it if it feels like there's a
00:33:00
disconnect between the politicians and
00:33:02
how they're spending the resources that
00:33:04
we are all giving them can we hear how
00:33:06
the IRA
00:33:07
serves this opportunity yeah
00:33:10
um so I want to make sure that just
00:33:12
throwing money at a problem unlimited
00:33:14
money at a problem uh I was actually
00:33:16
just having a conversation with Sam
00:33:17
Altman about this
00:33:19
um doesn't actually always speed it up
00:33:20
you actually have to do it in the right
00:33:22
way with the right targets right uh
00:33:24
delivering fusion power and it costs 10
00:33:26
cents a kilowatt hour doesn't actually
00:33:28
solve the problem it's got to be that
00:33:30
low-cost solution so we need to make
00:33:31
sure we're focused on how do we do that
00:33:33
for the IRA I mean a lot of its focus is
00:33:35
manufacturing a lot of its focus is
00:33:37
scaling Manufacturing in the United
00:33:39
States and so I think that is really
00:33:41
valuable and more things like that that
00:33:43
are less focused on demonstrating are
00:33:45
you going to get some of those dollars
00:33:46
we'll see yeah you have to prove some
00:33:49
stuff before you can access them right
00:33:51
um so on the manufacturing side there's
00:33:52
lots of opportunities to actually bring
00:33:54
manufacturing so capacitors are a good
00:33:56
example right um our current system 90
00:33:58
of the capacitors that we are going to
00:34:00
put into it were purchased overseas
00:34:02
because we weren't able to scale our
00:34:03
manufacturing internally fast enough to
00:34:05
build them all ourselves and Bob you
00:34:06
have your own magnet Factory do you get
00:34:08
funding is there funding opportunity for
00:34:10
you to support that effort yeah there is
00:34:12
but it's not nearly what you need and
00:34:13
that's just you know overall like the
00:34:15
energy transition needs somewhere
00:34:16
various estimates put about nine
00:34:18
trillion dollars a year globally and we
00:34:20
are at a tenth of that and so I often
00:34:22
get frustrated with the capital
00:34:23
allocation about like how we're
00:34:25
splitting the small numbers that we're
00:34:26
splitting now it's like no they just
00:34:27
need to be bigger numbers right and it's
00:34:29
not a question of do you invest in Next
00:34:30
Generation technology versus stuff that
00:34:32
you can like literally go today take a
00:34:34
smoke stack down and put a solar panel
00:34:37
solar farm there it's not it's not
00:34:39
either or here the whole pie has to go
00:34:41
bigger Bob when you when you hear
00:34:43
freeburg's theoretical proposal is there
00:34:46
a way to manifest that into an actual
00:34:49
Financial device of hey here's 70
00:34:51
private companies I'm going to get five
00:34:53
percent of each and put it into a
00:34:54
private company index no no it's not
00:34:57
possible
00:34:58
um
00:35:01
the problem is that the amount of capex
00:35:04
that we will need to make this a reality
00:35:06
is so gigantic and I think you guys are
00:35:08
honest about that that unfortunately you
00:35:11
eventually replace the Venture
00:35:13
capitalists with tens or hundreds or
00:35:15
even a few billion dollars
00:35:17
with the Sovereign wealth funds that you
00:35:19
need with hundreds of billions and
00:35:21
trillions of dollars and what happens
00:35:23
when you get there is that you replace
00:35:25
technical people with non-technical
00:35:27
people who have to then determine which
00:35:30
is going to win and the way that they do
00:35:32
that and this is sort of my question for
00:35:34
you guys because you'll have to get
00:35:36
prepared for this so you might as well
00:35:37
take a shot at it today
00:35:39
they'll hire consultants and they'll
00:35:41
hire other people and they'll say red
00:35:42
team the alternative right they'll look
00:35:44
at you and they'll say it's tritium
00:35:45
breeding rates they'll look at you and
00:35:47
they'll say well it's a probabilistic
00:35:48
generation of protons and who the [ __ ]
00:35:49
knows all this stuff is what they'll say
00:35:52
some will be right some will be wrong
00:35:54
it would be great whatever you're
00:35:56
comfortable doing you can either red
00:35:57
team hin or you can red team yourself
00:35:59
but I would love to understand the rate
00:36:01
limiting technical thing that you're the
00:36:03
most worried about whether it's his
00:36:04
solution or your own and vice versa
00:36:07
okay I'll I'll start off so I look at it
00:36:10
as a portfolio approach
00:36:12
this approach right very interesting
00:36:14
from a what's the final State look like
00:36:16
it's a simpler machine right
00:36:18
more interest but the like question is
00:36:21
can you make it work from a plasma
00:36:22
physics standpoint so that says what's
00:36:23
the data look like on the plasma right
00:36:25
how's that going that's the type of data
00:36:27
I'd ask for on our approach on a red
00:36:29
team is like can we get to the cost
00:36:31
right can we simplify it plasma looks
00:36:33
pretty good it's at the right right
00:36:35
parameters already well how simple can
00:36:37
you make that machine so you look at our
00:36:39
receipts you look at our Factory right
00:36:41
because that's where the risks are you
00:36:42
concerned about breeding time for you
00:36:43
like no no it's like we know the
00:36:45
breeding works because that's the way
00:36:47
the the weapons work
00:36:49
and that breeding is at like 1.1 times
00:36:51
roughly enough yeah so it's 20 years
00:36:53
then to get basically no you you start
00:36:55
it's like a you have enough to start now
00:36:57
that you go on an exponential okay
00:37:00
and that's your first couple systems you
00:37:02
said right yeah yeah enough to do the
00:37:04
first 10 systems at least and David how
00:37:06
would you yeah so um you know I would
00:37:08
agree I appreciate the intellectual
00:37:10
honesty thank you for that like it's
00:37:11
it's hard to do that but thank you
00:37:13
um and and um and and I actually kind of
00:37:15
agree with Bob's assessment that our
00:37:17
approach to Fusion uh the FRC
00:37:19
compression was invented in the 80s not
00:37:21
in the 60s and so like yes there's been
00:37:23
lots of scientists and lots of published
00:37:25
papers including by us a decade ago on
00:37:27
this but there's still work to be done
00:37:29
as we're going to push those boundaries
00:37:30
and prove in our system the thing I
00:37:32
worry most about is okay great we have
00:37:35
these beautiful energy recovery systems
00:37:37
operating at 95 efficiency that cut the
00:37:39
cap-backs in half or or more but they
00:37:42
have to work at that high efficiency and
00:37:44
if if we fail if it's operating at five
00:37:46
percent less efficiency that means I
00:37:47
have to do more Fusion now they get
00:37:49
bigger they get more expensive enough
00:37:51
and so
00:37:52
of these specific helium Isotopes on
00:37:55
planet Earth that you can actually like
00:37:56
generate
00:37:57
yeah so um both I think both both of us
00:38:00
will think about the fuel system in
00:38:01
terms of a tritium or the helions and
00:38:03
where does that come from
00:38:05
um for us we make it deuterium plus
00:38:07
deuterium fusing yeah and you make
00:38:09
helium that that presupposes you have a
00:38:11
very efficient way to do Fusion exactly
00:38:13
and so that's that again comes back to
00:38:15
just to connect for everyone deuterium
00:38:17
is a hydrogen atom with a an extra
00:38:19
Neutron in the nucleus and some
00:38:23
percentage of water has deuterium in it
00:38:26
so it's a It's relatively abundant is
00:38:28
that fair to say and yeah
00:38:30
tritium is less abundant so we need to
00:38:33
make tritium uh in order for systems
00:38:35
that rely on tritium for their
00:38:37
technology Fusion to work all the water
00:38:39
you drank out there it's got deuterium
00:38:40
in it and my final question
00:38:43
um
00:38:48
you wouldn't work without it actually
00:38:49
yeah that's great but pretty I'm a
00:38:50
little different but how how do you guys
00:38:53
think assuming that the technical
00:38:55
um issues are sort of packaged in a way
00:38:57
where now we have this repeatable thing
00:39:00
how do you get the local politician
00:39:03
to approve
00:39:06
what they will look at is a nuclear
00:39:07
reactor and what unfortunately
00:39:10
The Blob will have their own viewpoint
00:39:12
on from being installed all around the
00:39:16
country how does that how does that part
00:39:18
work which has nothing to do with
00:39:19
science unfortunately and is very
00:39:21
emotional and it's it's very you know
00:39:22
there's a lot of regulatory capture
00:39:24
there when we broke ground on that
00:39:25
facility I showed that's a bedroom
00:39:27
community of Boston we had had no
00:39:29
agreement of who would even regulate it
00:39:31
because it's totally open field right
00:39:33
entirely new technology right and so you
00:39:35
have a social acceptance angle you also
00:39:37
have just a pure like legally who's
00:39:39
going to be the person who's going to
00:39:41
tell you to shut it down right and you
00:39:43
have to solve both of those and they're
00:39:44
different they're related but they're
00:39:45
different and so it's been an
00:39:46
interesting experience to do that at
00:39:49
that site something that just happened
00:39:51
is that the nuclear Regulatory
00:39:52
Commission in the United States just
00:39:54
made a ruling after two years of review
00:39:55
that all fusion power plants will be
00:39:58
regulated like particle accelerators not
00:40:00
like fission plants that goes from a
00:40:02
billion dollar regulatory overhead to 10
00:40:04
million dollar regulatory overhead so
00:40:07
that machine I just showed that's
00:40:08
regularly by the state of Massachusetts
00:40:09
the same way that a Hospital Cancer
00:40:11
Treatment Center is so boom legal piece
00:40:14
way down right public acceptance we've
00:40:17
done we've done polls as an industry
00:40:18
Association that showed that the public
00:40:20
acceptance of fusion if message the
00:40:23
right way so avoiding trigger words and
00:40:24
things like that the people
00:40:27
is the trigger word
00:40:33
they become pretty excited about it
00:40:35
right you have this like moment of
00:40:36
conversion right where people go from
00:40:38
Curious to like yes we need that now and
00:40:41
that's been a broadly scene phenomenon
00:40:44
we got to get it right right and like
00:40:45
the chattering classes and you know the
00:40:47
opposition is going to eventually come
00:40:49
when these things are more real we have
00:40:51
time today to like
00:40:53
set the momentum and lay the groundwork
00:40:56
and I can add two more details on that
00:40:58
in that our goal is not just the cost of
00:41:01
the regulatory path for instance it's
00:41:02
speed we went from 10 or 20 years for a
00:41:05
you know a nuclear reactor in Georgia
00:41:07
where like helion's been regulated by
00:41:09
the state since 2018 and our permits
00:41:11
take six or nine months we are licensed
00:41:13
we're inspected whole nine yards and it
00:41:15
all exists it's not new regulation it
00:41:17
totally exists just for hospitals and
00:41:20
then the public acceptance piece is
00:41:22
again speed and so what we do is try not
00:41:24
to do what the nuclear industry did as
00:41:26
hide away and say don't worry about
00:41:28
what's happening here like what we try
00:41:30
to do is we show Hardware we tweet about
00:41:32
it social media is here now and that
00:41:33
helps and so we're out there showing
00:41:35
Hardware what we're building how we're
00:41:36
building it what the dangers are let's
00:41:38
be honest about it so that we can
00:41:40
actually address those intellectually
00:41:41
honestly with everyone
00:41:43
um let me ask one more question which I
00:41:46
think I have a final one but good okay
00:41:48
um that I think everyone's asked
00:41:50
which is why now
00:41:52
we've talked about this for 70 80 years
00:41:57
um this has been theorized this has been
00:41:59
part of an experimentation program
00:42:01
somewhere so everywhere for a long time
00:42:03
can you talk a little bit about what's
00:42:06
changed in technology all the underlying
00:42:08
technologies that allow us to do this
00:42:10
today is it Electronics photonics
00:42:15
software and AI low-cost electronic
00:42:18
components we talked about this back in
00:42:21
March David but Bob why don't you kick
00:42:23
it off and just help us understand why
00:42:25
this isn't just BS because it's always
00:42:27
been 20 years away from having free
00:42:29
abundant energy what's changed yeah so
00:42:31
one the science the science has advanced
00:42:33
tremendously we have predictive
00:42:35
capability of these machines the same
00:42:37
way that we have predicted capability of
00:42:38
like how to build a plane right
00:42:40
to the adjacent Technologies it's like
00:42:43
and those adjacent Technologies whether
00:42:45
it's magnets or high power Electronics
00:42:48
they've all benefited from huge
00:42:50
investments in the last 30 years so
00:42:51
basically been Warehouse are now being
00:42:53
applied and three the idea that like
00:42:55
software's eating the world well it
00:42:57
didn't really like you need the mouth
00:42:58
and like that mouth is Advanced
00:43:01
manufacturing that mouth is how to turn
00:43:02
a software business into the ability to
00:43:04
manifest Hardware like that works those
00:43:07
are all combining here with this very
00:43:09
big poll
00:43:10
and and I would just just I love all the
00:43:13
technology answer but also there's a
00:43:14
various uh famous quote in the 1980s of
00:43:18
what it would take to get fusion and
00:43:20
they put budgets forward and nobody
00:43:22
wanted to do it there was no investment
00:43:24
um and the quote is the world will have
00:43:26
Fusion when it needs it and look at the
00:43:28
capital investment infusion into
00:43:30
companies it is pretty striking I've
00:43:32
talked to a lot of investors who are
00:43:33
throwing whatever they can at it because
00:43:35
the world needs it yeah we're doing the
00:43:39
prep call for this you know we're having
00:43:40
an interesting discussion amongst the
00:43:41
besties of you know obviously
00:43:43
applications on Earth for energy but you
00:43:46
know when we get out into the stars and
00:43:47
you know the mission that elon's working
00:43:49
on to get to Mars um Freeburg was
00:43:51
wondering and sax particularly well this
00:43:53
technology help us get to Mars or
00:43:56
perhaps even Uranus
00:44:17
please join me in thanking Bob and David
00:44:19
[Applause]
00:44:22
we'll let your winner slide
00:44:25
Rain Man
00:44:26
[Music]
00:44:30
Kim
00:44:34
[Music]

Podspun Insights

In this electrifying episode, the world of fusion energy takes center stage as two leading entrepreneurs, Bob Momgaard and David Kirtley, share their groundbreaking visions for the future of energy production. With the planet's energy demands projected to skyrocket, these innovators discuss how fusion technology could be the game-changer we desperately need. Bob, the founder of Commonwealth Fusion, paints a vivid picture of harnessing the power of the universe, while David, from Helion, introduces a fresh approach that could accelerate our journey to clean energy. The conversation dives deep into the science, engineering, and potential societal impacts of fusion, leaving listeners with a sense of urgency and hope. As they explore the challenges and triumphs of their respective companies, the episode captures the excitement and chaos of pioneering a new frontier in energy. With a blend of technical insight and visionary optimism, this episode is a must-listen for anyone curious about the future of our planet and the role of fusion in shaping it.

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  • 90
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  • 90
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  • 90
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Episode Highlights

  • The Future of Energy: Fusion Technology
    Fusion technology could revolutionize energy production, requiring five times more energy by the century's end.
    “We will need to produce five times more energy than we make on Earth today.”
    @ 00m 27s
    September 22, 2023
  • Meet the Fusion Entrepreneurs
    Bob Momgaard and David Kirtley, leading figures in fusion technology, share their insights.
    “I'm really excited today to invite the two most funded Fusion technology entrepreneurs.”
    @ 00m 52s
    September 22, 2023
  • Building the Future: Fusion Power Plants
    Fusion machines could generate immense energy with minimal environmental impact.
    “Every one of your energy uses could be fulfilled with like a single glass of water.”
    @ 04m 38s
    September 22, 2023
  • Building Fusion Systems
    We're building our seventh generation machine, Polaris, to create smaller fusion systems.
    “We believe that means you can build Fusion systems orders of magnitude smaller and faster.”
    @ 19m 39s
    September 22, 2023
  • First Customer Announcement
    We announced our first customer, Microsoft, for a fusion power plant by 2028.
    “It's kind of a good thing for a fusion business.”
    @ 21m 09s
    September 22, 2023
  • Optimism for Fusion
    Experts express confidence that fusion energy will be a meaningful part of our energy mix in the next 20-30 years.
    “I think there's a hundred percent chance that the portfolio of 70 Fusion companies will succeed.”
    @ 32m 06s
    September 22, 2023
  • Regulatory Changes for Fusion Power
    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission now regulates fusion plants like particle accelerators, reducing costs significantly.
    “This goes from a billion dollar regulatory overhead to 10 million.”
    @ 39m 55s
    September 22, 2023
  • Public Acceptance of Fusion
    Polls show that with the right messaging, public excitement for fusion energy can grow.
    “People become pretty excited about it.”
    @ 40m 27s
    September 22, 2023
  • Technological Advancements in Fusion
    Advancements in science, electronics, and manufacturing are making fusion energy more feasible than ever.
    “The science has advanced tremendously.”
    @ 42m 33s
    September 22, 2023

Episode Quotes

Key Moments

  • Energy Demand Growth00:03
  • Fusion Technology Introduction00:42
  • 95% Efficiency19:31
  • Energy Transition29:25
  • Optimism for Future30:29
  • 20 years36:51
  • Regulatory capture39:24
  • Investment surge43:33

Words per Minute Over Time

Vibes Breakdown