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just so you know everything is archived
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by the White House right now so
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everything we say is recorded David
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freeberg is a jam stop you're being
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recorded good I I hope this is
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discoverable there white house I just
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want you to know that stupid also he did
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not pay his taxes in
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2016 don't you really want me to start
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with you you want me to start you want
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me to put some sh the archives oh my God
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here let me put some sh archives for you
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going to be my pets I think you need to
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shut the up is what you need to do sorry
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White House I'm going to be my pants he
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did he also has some unpaid parking
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tickets from
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2021 you want me to start with
00:00:42
you let your winners
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[Music]
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ride
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David and instead we open source it to
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the fans and they've just gone
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[Music]
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crazy all right everybody welcome back
00:00:59
to the number one podcast in the world
00:01:01
with me again today Jam paaa your
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chairman dictator David freeberg our
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sulan of Science and two guests uh
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obviously Ben Shapiro very famous for
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having the number two podcast in the
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world how are you Ben uh I'm I'm doing
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I'm doing great I'm just honored to be
00:01:17
here you know yes more work to do you
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could exceed all in in the rankings no
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we we we always judge ourselves Ben on
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three things in the rankings when we
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look at how we're doing what we see is
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Ben
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Shapiro prayer from the Bible okay the
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New Testament I don't think you've got
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it yet you you have the Old Testament
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but you haven't gotten the new you
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haven't gotten the sequel and then
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number
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three murder also with us from the White
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House yeah welcome to Allin where we
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have a live feed into the White House
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today my good friend Antonio graas is
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here he uh is taking I guess you're
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taking would it be safe to say a Hiatus
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or you're from Valor to do a little Tour
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of Duty uh in our government working on
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doge is is that the way to say it I'm
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still doing my day job too man this is
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this is this is a 7-Day a week 68 hour
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day job because I'm uh I'm trying to do
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both I've got some great partners are
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covering for me and that my firm has
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been tremendous and in um in allowing me
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to do this but no I'm still trying to do
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both was it public prior to this week
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Antonio that you were doing this role
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did you announce it anywhere was I
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didn't announce it were no that the New
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York Times had read a story about um me
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going to say you know which is s New
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York time style not not right but I was
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I had been there yeah I was out Woodland
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Maryland 40% correct yeah close enough
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close enough for hand grenades close
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enough I'm sure they had no agenda
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Antonio how does it how does it work so
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when you
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volunteered do is it that you and Elon
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and Steve just kind of figure out let's
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put a senior person at every part of the
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administration where there's real
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opportunity why did you end up at SSA
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versus someplace else interesting
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question and by the way it's great to
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see you guys man thanks for having me on
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I can use your last you're like you're
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really making me laugh thank you good to
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see thank you um suit looks great by the
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way yeah oh thank Youk when do you have
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to return it the rental is to at the end
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of the week okay um so yeah know what
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happened was I had actually volunteered
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to go to the VA because that's kind of
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as you guys know close to my heart and
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um Elon said to me look great you can do
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that next but we go to essay first and
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and see what's going on there because
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it's you know the biggest we have and
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and see what you find in fraud Wass and
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abuse and so of course I said sure I'll
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do that and I ended up out in Woodland
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Maryland with the good people at the SSA
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the soci administration and that that's
00:03:41
where I started that's how that's how
00:03:42
all this started for me and so do you
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Antonio go in there with a doge engineer
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as your kind of sidekick per se or you
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just go there solo and you show up and
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like like what happens day one when you
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walk in into the place what do you do so
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I brought with me um two great
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professionals uh you know John and and
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pton from uh from Valor um one of them
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an engineer the other one I'd say a
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finance ninja both these guys are ninjas
00:04:06
and there was already a team there
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actually that was working with some
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great engineers and one senior person uh
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Scott cter who's from actually worked at
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Lone p and start his own fund and then
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had come here as a volunteer as well so
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they were already doing some work
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actually particularly on on the
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enumeration part of the part of the
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system so that the system that you have
00:04:23
numbers the whole cleaning up the
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database the numbers they had already
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started that project when I got there
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and what is the mandate as given to you
00:04:31
you know as part of Doge fraad waste and
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abuse I mean exactly what you know what
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the what Bill Clinton talked about what
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Barack Obama talked about what all
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presidents but maybe President Biden
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talked about uh going back in time it
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was go figure out how to save some money
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man the system is going bankrupt it's
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going to be bankrupt 2037 the country
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overall as you guys know and talked
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about many times is on its way toward
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bankruptcy want do something and go go
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figure out we can save money and go find
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the fraud and that's what we did you
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know let's get to it you uh spoke at a
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rally uh I think it was on
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Sunday and you pulled up a chart here is
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that chart maybe you could explain to
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the American people here what this chart
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shows yeah so if if I might just step
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back and tell you how I got it because I
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think it's important you know we map the
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way we work you guys know we're very
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operational Balor I've worked with all
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you guys various times and what we do is
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we map the entire system from beginning
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to end so we we map the system from
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enumeration so I get your number all the
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way to the end went to the offices and
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saw the office offices operate and in
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that process um one of our Engineers Pon
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I mentioned he found U the data so we're
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looking at all the data numeration how
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it works what you know what's going on
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the typical stuff you'd look at and he
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found this data uh called enumeration
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Beyond entry right so that is the that's
00:05:44
and it it had this giant Ram to it you
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can see their Baseline was kind of you
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know 3 400,000 people all the way up 2.1
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million people and that just jumped out
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at us and we're like what's that and so
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we dug into it and that's how this
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started and so what that's showing is
00:05:58
social security numbers that were issued
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to non-american Citizens or non-citizens
00:06:05
am I correct that that's the number
00:06:06
we're looking at so these are
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noncitizens getting Security numbers and
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for people who don't know just like a
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little bit of background on the Social
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Security
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System we do this this is not abnormal
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for us to give Social Security numbers
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this is part of the process uh that the
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government does the Social Security
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number was created in 1936 for citizens
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to track their earnings and in the '90s
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we started giving them to non-citizens
00:06:31
who were authorized to work in the US so
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that we could collect taxes from them
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and so if you're not a citizen and
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you're a green card holder which some
00:06:40
people in this program I think have been
00:06:42
you have to have a Social Security
00:06:43
number in order to work and you pay into
00:06:45
Social Security and Medicare uh just
00:06:47
like you as Citizens and then eventually
00:06:49
I think you would qualify for those over
00:06:51
some period of time you can also get a
00:06:53
Social Security number if you're a legal
00:06:56
immigrant into the United States on a
00:06:57
Visa so for example when I first came to
00:06:59
the United States 25 years ago on a TN
00:07:02
Visa I was able to get my Social
00:07:05
Security number because I had a valid
00:07:07
visa to be in the United States okay
00:07:09
yeah so we have social security numbers
00:07:13
being given to non-citizens that is not
00:07:16
controversial but there's something
00:07:17
controversial about this chart Antonio
00:07:19
tell us what that is so I I think you
00:07:21
look at the chart you'll see there's it
00:07:23
starts to like called 300,000 or so this
00:07:24
is during the covid period yeah coming
00:07:27
right out of it so we the 21 coming
00:07:29
right out of Co right so if you go back
00:07:31
even a couple years in 19 you'll see
00:07:33
that um it's about 400,000 yeah exactly
00:07:36
right there so um what happened was this
00:07:39
program was designed for so people
00:07:42
you're talking about you know people
00:07:43
that got visas this is at numeration
00:07:45
Beyond entries this after you're in um
00:07:47
there are some people in here that have
00:07:49
h-1bs screen cards Etc and the way we
00:07:51
thought about this was that's the
00:07:52
Baseline number that's the 3 to 400,000
00:07:54
a year you see and that should be
00:07:56
happened that's like you know there are
00:07:58
programs for Afghans example the
00:08:00
translators that came in after the war
00:08:02
right the people who brought it they
00:08:02
would be in these kinds of programs and
00:08:04
so the Baseline number and by the
00:08:06
program goes back this particular
00:08:07
program goes back all the way to 17 and
00:08:09
had legitimate use which was the kind of
00:08:11
people we talking about people that we
00:08:12
want to let in um like The CARE program
00:08:14
I'll make an example which are the
00:08:15
Afghans they would be in this number and
00:08:18
so what what jumped out of this wasn't
00:08:20
that this is here because it has
00:08:21
legitimate use it's that it's the growth
00:08:24
why did it grow this fast and what
00:08:26
happened that that's what we dug into
00:08:28
have you figured that out yet is it
00:08:29
because of like a covid overhang the the
00:08:32
one criticism I did see of the chart
00:08:33
that I wanted to bring up with you is
00:08:35
hey people want to see the 10 years 20
00:08:37
years before this what would we see if
00:08:38
we we were Look Backwards a little bit
00:08:40
and do you have some theories and is the
00:08:42
covid overhang Theory valid or is this
00:08:44
just Biden opened the Border as we saw
00:08:47
you know especially like in maybe it was
00:08:49
that third year of his term the 2023
00:08:51
year and this is the overhang of the
00:08:52
2023 surge what are your theories well
00:08:55
the answer is no categor no because the
00:08:58
program really started it it started in
00:09:01
2017 so they probably worked on it
00:09:02
before that right a few takes a few
00:09:03
years to put these things into place
00:09:05
they worked at it my guess is you know
00:09:06
back during the B Administration it
00:09:08
actually became active in 17 you see a
00:09:11
few numbers in 18 and it starts to get a
00:09:12
little bigger in 19 and 20 right so that
00:09:15
that's how we get this Baseline number
00:09:16
of 1920 that's where we're using that
00:09:18
data here um so you there isn't I can't
00:09:20
go back 20 years it doesn't exist and
00:09:23
then when we dug into it what we found
00:09:24
was the vast majority of the growth uh
00:09:27
was related to Asylum programs and PE Le
00:09:30
and people that came in on on ntas this
00:09:32
noticed to appear into the country
00:09:34
either at the border at the airports
00:09:36
mostly at the border and then we dug
00:09:38
further into it excuse me dug further
00:09:40
into it we found that there
00:09:43
were this is about 5.4 million people
00:09:45
total there were about 1.2 million
00:09:47
people that the status was marked as
00:09:49
unknown and about 1.2 million people
00:09:51
that were marked as general parole and
00:09:52
they should have markings of you know
00:09:55
what the program is they're under
00:09:56
because if you if you claim Asylum
00:09:57
you're supposed to claim like a real
00:09:59
fear I'm going to be tortured by my
00:10:00
country you know something's bad is
00:10:02
going to happen me so why I can't go
00:10:03
home what we find here is that a
00:10:05
legitimate program was in the word I use
00:10:07
abused it the the the requirements were
00:10:10
like super opened so that more people
00:10:13
come through and the example I'll give
00:10:15
you you know I have here actually the
00:10:17
form this the form used to be going back
00:10:19
in time a four-page form that the
00:10:22
officer have to fill out in the field
00:10:24
and the person that was claiming Sol had
00:10:25
to actually prove that they were had a
00:10:27
really credible fear of being you know
00:10:28
murdered tortured by their government
00:10:30
that's something B them that's that's
00:10:31
what SS for it turned into a form which
00:10:34
I can't give you but I'm going to show
00:10:35
you here you can if you zoom in on it it
00:10:37
has four questions that's it and the
00:10:39
four questions are super leading I'll
00:10:41
just read the um you know the like one
00:10:43
of the important ones here right so do
00:10:46
you have any reason for a concern about
00:10:48
being returned to your home country or
00:10:49
being removed from the United States I
00:10:51
mean could that be more
00:10:53
leading right what they did is they open
00:10:55
they just open the aperture on these
00:10:57
programs dramatically so they allowed
00:10:59
people that were illegal to the border
00:11:01
to come in Legally and as we've dug
00:11:04
further into it we found this took us so
00:11:06
you guys know me man I do like I'm a
00:11:07
very methodical lean business process
00:11:10
mapper and we went all the way to the
00:11:13
Border literally to Brownsville and
00:11:14
Laredo to ask what happened we couldn't
00:11:17
find the data on what these these
00:11:19
unknown categories were and it turns out
00:11:22
that when the the the folks the Border
00:11:24
who were great by the way um they they
00:11:25
really tried hard and they suffered a
00:11:27
lot in this this is a bit of this is a
00:11:28
human strategy I we talked about they
00:11:31
were were giving people at times notices
00:11:33
to appear this is the the NTA and what
00:11:36
that allows you to do is come in the
00:11:39
country and then you're you're schedule
00:11:41
a court date which is like six years out
00:11:43
so now you're in the country with some
00:11:44
quasi legal status you're waiting for
00:11:46
your court date and while you're waiting
00:11:48
for your court date which could be six
00:11:49
six years out is the average by the way
00:11:51
could be longer than that you're waiting
00:11:53
for your court date they uh you could
00:11:54
fill out a Sil application so without
00:11:57
even interview just an application by
00:11:58
filing a form once application's in you
00:12:01
can um file another form 765 to get a
00:12:05
work authorization once you get that you
00:12:06
get a 766 which is the authorization and
00:12:09
we automatically send you a soci card in
00:12:12
the mail no interview at all that that's
00:12:16
that's the that is the majority of the
00:12:18
growth you see in these numbers is there
00:12:19
any ID verification along the way
00:12:21
Antonio like do we know that there are
00:12:24
no duplications Happening by validating
00:12:27
that one individual is getting one
00:12:28
social security number at any point in
00:12:29
this process so it's a great question um
00:12:33
no the answer is there's no real
00:12:35
verification so you can you one of the
00:12:37
things we found we looked at this was
00:12:39
the the people that that some people
00:12:40
showed IDs some people didn't and one of
00:12:42
the things these would be IDs Antonio
00:12:44
from their home country this would be a
00:12:46
Venezuelan driver's license or something
00:12:48
yeah I mean it could be a passport a
00:12:49
driver's license but here's what really
00:12:52
sort of tipped us off and disturbed us
00:12:54
when we looked at the the birth cific
00:12:56
data that was present at the border the
00:12:58
number one birth date was was 1 and it
00:13:00
was four times more likely to be born on
00:13:02
1 one than any other uh day of the year
00:13:04
now we all know this is so they just hit
00:13:06
enter on that part the or they had they
00:13:08
could come they Al could come with
00:13:09
nothing we take Biometrics of people at
00:13:11
the border do we take like an iris scan
00:13:13
fingerprints and all that stuff this is
00:13:15
one of the issues I mean we do have
00:13:16
photos of of people uh we found that 23%
00:13:19
of the records looked at did not have
00:13:21
fingerprints and look the the folks at
00:13:23
the border were um overwhelmed and we're
00:13:26
not sure why this happened I will tell
00:13:28
you guys just to understand I went down
00:13:29
there both border patrol and Border
00:13:32
Protection told me they had the highest
00:13:33
suicide rates of all time during the
00:13:36
surge okay over 70 over 70 of these
00:13:39
agents committed suicide in this period
00:13:42
it's truly tragic because they knew it
00:13:44
was going on given the fact that that
00:13:46
all this has
00:13:48
happened is the Trump Administration
00:13:50
going to try to claim the social
00:13:53
security numbers back invalidate them
00:13:55
what would be the proper action or is it
00:13:56
too late are they already sort of in the
00:13:58
system and now you can't anything about
00:13:59
it so Ben it's a great question right
00:14:02
and the the the first question was what
00:14:04
are they doing I mean you know like
00:14:06
where are these people where are they
00:14:07
how are they and we've gone through a
00:14:09
whole process of mapping this so we
00:14:11
mapped it through to the benefit
00:14:12
programs we found uh in the benefit
00:14:14
programs that every benefit we looked at
00:14:16
was being accessed by these people you
00:14:18
know 1.3 million of them are on Medicaid
00:14:21
right now today and by the way it's just
00:14:23
ramping just starting just to give you a
00:14:24
point and then out of curiosity I woke
00:14:27
up at night like 2: in the morning I I
00:14:28
couldn't sleep mind was R on this I sent
00:14:30
the Andre a notes saying hey guys let's
00:14:31
just look at the the public voter roles
00:14:32
who we find in some in some friendly
00:14:34
States and we looked at the voter roles
00:14:36
and we found that thousands of them
00:14:38
registered to vote in a handful of
00:14:39
states and then we went further with
00:14:41
those friendly States and found that the
00:14:43
many of those people had actually voted
00:14:44
it was shocking to us and if I hadn't
00:14:45
seen it with my own eyes I wouldn't
00:14:46
believed it and so now the question
00:14:49
we're asking ourselves is what do we do
00:14:50
we've referred some to prosecution
00:14:52
that's ongoing right now you know we're
00:14:54
thinking through how to do it and the
00:14:56
reality is they have various kinds of
00:14:58
status and it's a very detailed analysis
00:15:00
legally they working through right now
00:15:02
about how to deal with it so thousands
00:15:04
of those people registered to vote Yes
00:15:08
in the election which is a federal crime
00:15:10
by the way well yeah I mean the
00:15:11
interesting thing is like the Heritage
00:15:13
Foundation has a very good project you
00:15:14
know it's obviously right leaning where
00:15:17
they're studying all cases of fraud I
00:15:18
looked at it before we're here there's
00:15:19
only been 24 cases since 2003 of
00:15:23
somebody who's a non-citizen trying to
00:15:25
vote now those are people caught so this
00:15:27
would be incredibly dramatic if it was
00:15:29
even a thousand people oh no Jason it's
00:15:32
more than a thousand I've I've seen it
00:15:34
um I've seen the data myself and it's
00:15:35
more than a thousand in just a couple of
00:15:37
States I mean it is shockingly bad and
00:15:39
this is the tip of the iceberg guys it's
00:15:41
the tip of the iceberg this doesn't
00:15:43
include the 7.8 million people that ice
00:15:45
has that have come in illegally and know
00:15:47
are here and all the people that came
00:15:48
illegally we don't know are here I mean
00:15:50
this is not a political issue I want to
00:15:51
be really clear about this about America
00:15:54
let's just take one step back because I
00:15:55
just want you to repeat this so because
00:15:58
I think it's important and we may have
00:16:00
just run over it a little too quickly
00:16:02
when you get a Social Security number
00:16:04
what you're saying is there's all of
00:16:07
these important Downstream consequences
00:16:10
one of the downstream consequences is
00:16:12
you could show up register to vote and
00:16:15
that's an illegitimate action that's
00:16:17
breaking federal law that's one but the
00:16:19
second is that without knowing who this
00:16:22
person is they can start to absorb
00:16:26
resources that could have otherwise gone
00:16:29
to an American I guess that's like a
00:16:31
fundamental part of
00:16:34
this so how do you how do you quantify
00:16:37
that can you just maybe explain it a
00:16:38
little bit more about all of the
00:16:40
different ways in which you think now
00:16:42
you know the United States ends up
00:16:45
leaking services to these folks and also
00:16:48
they could be contributing too right
00:16:49
they could be paying taxes into the
00:16:50
system and so I guess there's both of
00:16:52
those possibilities and both of those
00:16:54
have fingerprints to off so yeah good
00:16:56
question you know look we need to figure
00:16:58
this out this this is a a very it's
00:17:00
massively complex you can see the map I
00:17:02
have on the Whiteboard and our office
00:17:04
it's huge and we're figuring it out
00:17:06
right now but let me just tell you this
00:17:08
and every benefit program we looked at
00:17:10
and this is just a handful of States we
00:17:11
found people on all the benefit programs
00:17:13
and we found them on unemployment we
00:17:14
found them on Medicaid so adjacent to
00:17:17
your point the people on Medicaid
00:17:18
unemployment they're not contributing
00:17:20
they're taking out they're moing right
00:17:22
there are criminals I mean look we sent
00:17:24
this data list to the National targeting
00:17:25
Center they and I I don't want to get
00:17:27
too far into the data but I can tell you
00:17:28
they found hardheads in the Target
00:17:30
Center um of very bad people criminals
00:17:33
and people on ter watch list that are in
00:17:35
this group and so yeah I mean it's it's
00:17:37
a problem we got to figure out how to
00:17:38
deal with it and the of course there are
00:17:42
people that are also you know have jobs
00:17:44
and paying in the system that's you know
00:17:46
that's that's also true all these things
00:17:48
are true and we're trying to surf the
00:17:50
data and figure out how to actually deal
00:17:51
with it now Antonio one of the things
00:17:53
about the data that you triggered which
00:17:56
because the data is so important
00:18:00
frankly is a lot of people started to
00:18:03
try to find a way to nitpick and say
00:18:07
Antonio you're cherry picking or Antonio
00:18:10
this is not really representative and
00:18:11
you had some pretty big names right
00:18:14
people that have credibility Jim chos
00:18:16
probably being one of the more prolific
00:18:19
people a very well-known hedge fund
00:18:20
manager but I think you try
00:18:23
to articulate why their objections
00:18:27
didn't make any sense I think it's
00:18:28
important to maybe give you a few
00:18:30
moments here to identify what they said
00:18:35
and maybe debunk it so the the chart
00:18:38
that they're using and you can see this
00:18:39
I posted something on X about this it
00:18:42
was Apples to
00:18:43
oranges you can you could see here they
00:18:45
took a chart that included all
00:18:48
enumerations not the EB program the
00:18:50
enumeration B entry program all
00:18:52
enumerations they compared to our chart
00:18:54
they put this so just to be clear this
00:18:55
would have included somebody like me
00:18:57
coming in on a tnv or somebody on an eb1
00:19:01
Visa yeah the so those people being our
00:19:04
data too but just enumerated Beyond
00:19:05
entry the data on the left uh of 2020
00:19:08
the big bars that includes people in the
00:19:11
offices that includes people that got
00:19:12
they got uh C numbers because they went
00:19:14
to a consulate and like you probably did
00:19:16
applied ahead of time before they came
00:19:17
in you know those kinds of people so we
00:19:19
need a stacked bar chart so there's some
00:19:21
fun with numbers going on can you flip
00:19:23
back again so your number for 24 was how
00:19:26
much 2.1 million right yeah
00:19:30
yeah what they did is took they took our
00:19:32
data so this was you know look I don't
00:19:34
want to impute Negative motiv they just
00:19:36
maybe were confused they took our data
00:19:39
and they comp they added the total data
00:19:42
right this is just subsection this is EB
00:19:45
and I'm just going to use AC okay guys
00:19:47
this is EB only in numeration Beyond
00:19:49
entry which is a program as I said
00:19:51
started in 2017 and then it kind of
00:19:53
ramped up into 19 they took our data and
00:19:55
then they added the total Data before
00:19:57
that right that is apples to oranges
00:20:00
that's why it doesn't work and I I went
00:20:03
through a whole analysis of this on X
00:20:06
and you know the person the first person
00:20:08
that posted the chart actually deleted
00:20:09
it and sent me a post saying hey you
00:20:11
know I'm deleting it because I get it
00:20:12
you're right and apologized and ask me
00:20:15
some questions I don't want to get into
00:20:16
you know you guys know I don't post a
00:20:17
lot on X I don't want to get into basic
00:20:19
people it's not worth it the data speaks
00:20:21
for itself there's it basically it
00:20:22
basically became like a roar shock test
00:20:24
where people that did not want to
00:20:26
believe the points you were making
00:20:28
latched on to that chart that was shown
00:20:31
even though it was disproven and that
00:20:33
became the narrative for a good chunk of
00:20:35
the internet and a good chunk of for
00:20:36
media respons yeah I mean look you guys
00:20:38
know me you know me for a long time this
00:20:40
is not political man this is this tell
00:20:42
about your political background again we
00:20:43
haven't talked about this on the show
00:20:44
Antonio but I think it's worth letting
00:20:46
everyone hear about your background a
00:20:47
little bit just so folks understand
00:20:49
where you're coming from I was a
00:20:51
Democrat for 20 years I mean I I I you
00:20:53
know I knocked on doors for really
00:20:55
Clinton Iowa I was uh you know from from
00:20:58
Illinois and look I've got lots of good
00:21:00
friends are Democrats and when I explain
00:21:02
this sta to them they're as shocked as I
00:21:03
am I don't believe this I mean to say
00:21:05
you're a Democrat is an under you were a
00:21:07
Democrat is an understatement you were a
00:21:08
major donor and majorly involved with
00:21:10
the Democratic party yes Ben you you
00:21:14
tend to call balls and Strikes on the
00:21:15
program what are your thoughts
00:21:18
on immigration generally and how it
00:21:21
should work here in the US and how maybe
00:21:22
we can resolve this and get to and Anton
00:21:25
I want your answer to that question as
00:21:26
well maybe some reconciliation here
00:21:29
between the moderates Maga original you
00:21:32
know classic GOP Democrats and and the
00:21:35
woke lunatics like is there any way out
00:21:38
of this and and maybe perhaps what we're
00:21:40
seeing here with somebody like Antonio
00:21:43
who's a lifelong Democrat who now is you
00:21:45
know helping the government maybe
00:21:46
there's some way with data and logic we
00:21:48
can get through this I mean I I think
00:21:51
that what Antonio is doing here is is so
00:21:53
important specifically for that because
00:21:55
it seems to me there's actually been a
00:21:57
fairly wide consensus among the American
00:21:59
population for a very long time what to
00:22:00
do about immigration particularly the
00:22:02
southern border which is number one just
00:22:03
sto the illegal immigration at the
00:22:04
southern border after Biden blew that
00:22:06
out a lot of Democrats turned to
00:22:07
president Trump specifically because of
00:22:09
that issue and that has been the signal
00:22:11
success of the Trump Administration
00:22:13
among all the other successes the the
00:22:14
numbers of the Border have just
00:22:15
plummeted to almost zero I mean the
00:22:17
lowest numbers in recorded history and
00:22:18
that is an unmitigated success and then
00:22:20
I think everybody knows that we have to
00:22:22
sort of figure out who gets to stay and
00:22:23
who gets to go who's already in the
00:22:24
country and what Antonio is doing by
00:22:26
being able to discern who is here and is
00:22:28
net draw on the resources of the
00:22:30
American people versus maybe who is a
00:22:32
net taxpayer or who's actually
00:22:33
contributing who's a criminal right
00:22:36
there's always been this bizarre
00:22:37
supposition in the in the political
00:22:38
realm that there's no way on a onetoone
00:22:40
level to figure out who is who you have
00:22:42
to treat everybody as a class either
00:22:43
everybody stays everybody goes and the
00:22:45
reality is that even the way the Trump
00:22:47
Administration is doing this by first
00:22:48
targeting say criminal illegal aliens
00:22:50
for for removal and then maybe moving on
00:22:52
to people who are net drawn resources
00:22:54
who came in falsely under claims of
00:22:55
Asylum and now are receiving Medicaid or
00:22:57
disability this I've made the argument
00:23:00
for for I think my entire career
00:23:01
actually on this that that we should be
00:23:03
treating immigrants illegal immigrants
00:23:04
who are in the country the same way we
00:23:06
would treat people who are trying to get
00:23:07
into the country which is to say are you
00:23:09
going to benefit the United States or
00:23:10
are you not going to benefit the United
00:23:11
States and the counter argument was
00:23:12
always well how exactly are you going to
00:23:14
determine who is who and the answer I
00:23:16
always gave was well the IRS does it
00:23:18
with our tax returns literally every
00:23:20
single year so why should we not be able
00:23:21
to do that and so the kind of work
00:23:23
Antonio is doing showing you actually
00:23:24
can do that by tracking the social
00:23:26
security numbers of people who came in
00:23:27
illegally because the truth of the
00:23:30
number of unknown getaways is actually
00:23:32
really really compared to this it's it's
00:23:34
a small number most of the people who
00:23:36
are coming across the border at least
00:23:37
during the Biden term I went down to the
00:23:38
Border last year and and visited uh a
00:23:41
Native American reservation that's right
00:23:42
along the border where where the border
00:23:44
patrol basically was not uh and and they
00:23:46
said that what was happening is people
00:23:47
were arriving at the border they were
00:23:48
doing exactly what Antonio was talking
00:23:50
about they would literally say I fear to
00:23:51
go back to my home country they' be
00:23:53
processed they'd be led into the country
00:23:54
with a with a a future date to come back
00:23:57
and that was all happening with 72 hours
00:23:59
so being able to track those people and
00:24:00
find out who who who should be in who
00:24:03
shouldn't be that that's that's huge and
00:24:04
I think that's the
00:24:06
consensus so uh should we are you in the
00:24:08
camp we should Deport everybody this
00:24:10
sort of Stephen Miller Miller Deport 20
00:24:13
million people Ben or you and the hey
00:24:15
let's get rid of the criminals and you
00:24:17
know that will get us to where we need
00:24:19
to be well I don't think it's just the
00:24:20
criminals I mean I think you also need
00:24:21
to go after the folks who are are here
00:24:23
to take advantage of the welfare
00:24:25
benefits for example who are just draw
00:24:26
on the system um but I don't think that
00:24:28
the number is 20 million I don't think
00:24:30
president Trump actually thinks the
00:24:31
number is is 20 million I don't think
00:24:33
anybody realistically thinks the number
00:24:34
is 20 million got it okay but they they
00:24:36
said it over and over again all 20
00:24:37
million are going and it's right but
00:24:39
they say a lot of things it's AIT it's a
00:24:41
yes it's a political campaign and people
00:24:42
say that sort of stuff all the time
00:24:45
Antonio let's talk maybe about
00:24:47
reconciliation here you spent your life
00:24:49
as a Democrat and now you've spent I
00:24:51
don't know six months as a republican
00:24:53
here and helping this Administration how
00:24:55
do we get the country to sort of get
00:24:57
back together here and maybe reconcile
00:24:59
on this issue because it seems like an
00:25:02
unnecessary to Ben's point I I think the
00:25:04
number is 80% of people believe the
00:25:07
Border should be just shut period full
00:25:09
stop and everything should be legal and
00:25:10
I don't know the other 20 if they're
00:25:12
just don't know how to take a survey
00:25:14
I've never met anybody who said there
00:25:15
should be an open border at at the
00:25:17
southern border so what are your
00:25:18
thoughts on given your inside knowledge
00:25:21
uh and I would describe you as a Clinton
00:25:23
Democrat fiscally conservative socially
00:25:25
liberal correct me if I'm wrong there
00:25:27
what are your thoughts on reconciliation
00:25:29
here because you really do care about
00:25:31
that your parents both immigrants my Bes
00:25:35
is here three of the four people who
00:25:36
host this program immigrants this is an
00:25:38
immigrant country built by immigrants
00:25:41
for immigrants has always been so how do
00:25:43
we reconcile this issue and put it
00:25:45
behind
00:25:46
us and Jason I have asked myself this
00:25:48
question and I I think we got to follow
00:25:50
the truth and that's that's the point
00:25:52
follow the truth and the truth is in the
00:25:53
data and as as Ben said the numbers
00:25:55
don't lie right and so people are
00:25:57
productive we got find a way to to allow
00:25:59
them to be productive and stay people
00:26:01
that are are taking the system should
00:26:02
not be allowed to stay and you know I
00:26:04
think we I don't want to get into the
00:26:05
policy at all because it's above my pay
00:26:06
grade I mean the reality is for me my
00:26:08
remit is as as Ben said it's criminals
00:26:11
terrorists and then people mooching off
00:26:12
the system and then you know a political
00:26:14
question needs to be answered about what
00:26:15
happens to the rest of those people I I
00:26:17
don't I don't know I don't it's not my
00:26:19
remit free I I will say this yeah I
00:26:22
think that all my friends who are still
00:26:25
Democrats that I have explain this data
00:26:26
to they all say the same thing you guys
00:26:28
are saying
00:26:28
man this is a problem we got to figure
00:26:30
this out and let me tell you why the
00:26:32
bigger problem the biggest problem here
00:26:33
and it's it's definitely is taking off
00:26:35
the system but you got to realize we
00:26:37
gave 13 to 15 billion a year to human
00:26:40
traffickers that's what this system did
00:26:42
and the money magnet that attracted
00:26:44
these people here it wasn't like it was
00:26:46
some crisis that you know environmental
00:26:48
crisis the money magnet attracted these
00:26:50
people and many of them died on the way
00:26:51
up I mean think about what that's like
00:26:54
think about the this a human suffering a
00:26:56
human rights tragedy you have people who
00:26:59
are getting sold into slavery and being
00:27:01
abused at the border at a at a minimum
00:27:03
every American should be against that
00:27:05
everyone is every American is man this
00:27:07
turned my stomach when I went to the
00:27:08
board and I heard the stories it turned
00:27:09
my stomach man this we are America okay
00:27:13
we protect people like this we don't
00:27:15
give incentives to people to pay
00:27:16
traffickers if you pay 20,000 I heard
00:27:18
20,000 to 500 bucks just across the
00:27:20
border $20,000 I mean where do someone
00:27:23
who's coming from Central America or
00:27:24
Africa get 20 grand to pay the pay the
00:27:27
traffickers that are walking them across
00:27:28
the border it's not free to walk up
00:27:30
Mexico okay it's controlled by the
00:27:31
cartels what happens I mean they got to
00:27:33
pay that back how do they pay it back
00:27:35
they're basically DED servants this is
00:27:36
terrible this isn't what we do in this
00:27:38
country right this country is about
00:27:40
freedom and we are here to protect it we
00:27:42
protect it around the world protected
00:27:43
our home country and I don't think any
00:27:45
American that I know none of them
00:27:47
Democrats Republicans or anyone thinks
00:27:49
this is good it's not good it's bad for
00:27:51
America and it's evil Behavior we
00:27:53
shouldn't send it we shouldn't we
00:27:54
shouldn't give people a reason to do it
00:27:55
we should find legal ways people come in
00:27:57
the country and
00:27:59
do you believe that there is a
00:28:01
Democratic party motive to increase
00:28:03
voter base for the Democrats behind all
00:28:06
of this as has been proclaimed by some
00:28:09
look as I go through the data and I see
00:28:11
it's all about the data okay David and I
00:28:13
know you you you you you love the data
00:28:16
when you just in a handful of States man
00:28:18
I'm talking about four states we looked
00:28:20
at the voter roles we found these people
00:28:22
thousands of them on the voter roles and
00:28:23
we found uh many of those people had
00:28:25
voted right in one state in particular
00:28:27
well over a thousand voted yeah I think
00:28:29
this was a a move to import voters but
00:28:32
really importantly I just want to make
00:28:33
sure because when when I talk to
00:28:36
politicians from the Democratic party
00:28:37
about this they say there's aspects of
00:28:40
Human Rights doing the right thing for
00:28:43
people in need that is motivating some
00:28:46
of this behavior is that a lie and they
00:28:50
actually have a different motive or do
00:28:53
some in the party think that way but
00:28:55
there are real kind of kind of call it a
00:28:57
small
00:28:58
group of Highly influential Folks at the
00:29:01
top of the democratic party that
00:29:02
recognize that this is going to grow the
00:29:04
voter base and they're kind of
00:29:05
motivating this what do you think is the
00:29:07
construction of what sounds to some to
00:29:09
be a conspiracy and how much of this is
00:29:12
really like widely
00:29:14
understood look Ben here I'll tell you
00:29:16
what I have seen I've tell you the
00:29:18
actual information if you look at C
00:29:20
Administration we set all the defaults
00:29:22
to kind of Max open no idea requirements
00:29:25
right you get a soci scen number uh
00:29:27
before we got here by walking in office
00:29:30
answering you know with with with a
00:29:32
medical record and a school ID that had
00:29:34
your name and your date date of birth on
00:29:37
it that's it okay we opened up we set
00:29:40
the defaults to open on Social Security
00:29:42
we set the defaults to open on pay
00:29:44
paying people out and we set the
00:29:46
collection defaults basically to zero so
00:29:48
that's how the system looks that's I'm
00:29:50
just reporting reporting the facts um do
00:29:53
I think that the the average person is a
00:29:55
democrat in the in in Illinois or you
00:29:58
know the guys I knew I to Chicago they
00:30:00
know this they don't know this they
00:30:02
don't know this so were there people at
00:30:04
the top of the system did this yeah
00:30:06
people created this policy the former
00:30:07
administrators of the of these agencies
00:30:09
created these policies I've seen them
00:30:11
I've read them myself I've gone to the
00:30:13
data myself they've seen them now this
00:30:15
isn't everybody if you're the average
00:30:16
person out there who's a Democrat and
00:30:18
you see what I've seen you I believe you
00:30:22
will you conclude what I concluded which
00:30:23
is this isn't right these policies are
00:30:26
wrong they're evil they're wrong we gave
00:30:28
an incentive for people to get
00:30:29
trafficked that's terrible I just don't
00:30:31
I just don't think people know the
00:30:32
reason I'm even willing to do all you
00:30:34
guys know me I'm pretty private I'm come
00:30:35
to your podcast because we're buddies
00:30:36
but like man the reason I'm talking
00:30:38
about this is is not political it's
00:30:40
because it's a human rights issue and
00:30:42
the human rights issue is being confused
00:30:43
it's not it's we are incenting people to
00:30:46
pay traffickers to come to America we
00:30:48
were doing this right we got to find
00:30:50
better ways to do that and I just I
00:30:52
don't believe any American the 80% of
00:30:53
people Jason's talking about that would
00:30:55
say close the border that's the 80%
00:30:57
people come together this issue man we
00:30:59
got to take care of people Antonio can
00:31:01
you talk about what the next big push of
00:31:03
effort from you and your team will be is
00:31:06
there good question some next chart I'm
00:31:08
not trying to be reductive but is there
00:31:11
something that you can demonstrate that
00:31:12
is going to be equivalently as powerful
00:31:15
as this first
00:31:16
chart which then helps us start to move
00:31:20
these gears towards doing the logical
00:31:22
and right thing I think the right thing
00:31:24
is to figure out who's who right who are
00:31:26
the criminals who are the terrorists
00:31:28
yeah number one and number two who's
00:31:31
mooching off the system and then number
00:31:33
three the people that are working that
00:31:35
Jason's talking about U you know what we
00:31:37
do with them that's the right answer I
00:31:39
would add a fourth because I think
00:31:41
that there's probably no
00:31:44
more electric issue than this idea of
00:31:49
voting
00:31:50
impropriety and I think it is become so
00:31:52
brazenly partisan that everybody has
00:31:55
suspended logic if it turned out if it
00:31:58
turns out that there was a manipulated
00:32:00
effort in 2020 and there is even a
00:32:02
thread of legitimacy to Trump's claims
00:32:05
you would never be able to see the light
00:32:06
of day because so many Americans just
00:32:09
turn their turn off right and that's
00:32:11
because of the rhetoric that they've
00:32:13
been fed this is a really important
00:32:15
thing that I would just offer to you is
00:32:18
that if it is true that these people
00:32:20
illegally voted I think it's a
00:32:23
Thunderclap and I think it opens wide
00:32:26
the aperture on voting illegality and
00:32:29
voting reform and I think that
00:32:30
irrespective of who you are you should
00:32:34
want to make sure that people who are
00:32:37
not allowed to vote are not voting just
00:32:40
to put it simply yeah wow what an
00:32:42
incredible I mean it's amazing I can't I
00:32:44
I can't uh I can't get an airplane in
00:32:46
America without ID but I can go vote in
00:32:48
some states without ID I think that's
00:32:50
crazy I totally crazy that is and we're
00:32:53
down to like Ben you know the number
00:32:54
it's 15 states now are the ones that
00:32:57
don't have voter idas so this is
00:32:58
becoming like a very obvious issue and a
00:32:59
loopover for us to close I think the
00:33:01
best next thing for you to do is
00:33:02
actually publish this list of people who
00:33:04
voted get it to the Heritage Foundation
00:33:06
and put sunlight on it the truth shall
00:33:08
make you free and sunlight is the best
00:33:10
disinfectant because I think the whole
00:33:12
issue is
00:33:14
absurd because if you look at the votes
00:33:16
in the swing States it would take a 100
00:33:18
thousand it would take tens of thousands
00:33:20
and it's illegal I I've spoken to the
00:33:22
person at the Heritage Foundation who
00:33:24
does this they found like 2400 cases
00:33:27
over 40 or 50 years the number of people
00:33:31
voting illegally is minuscule in order
00:33:33
to swing even but one state you would
00:33:35
need coordin hold on let me finish you
00:33:38
would need a coordinated effort I'm just
00:33:40
giving you data chamama I am not partis
00:33:43
there are tens of thousands of vot that
00:33:45
would need to be manipulated in each of
00:33:46
these markets it's impossible here well
00:33:49
there's the keyw here's what I would ask
00:33:52
you to consider sure your results are
00:33:55
only as good as your prompts
00:33:58
your results are only as good as your
00:34:01
prompts say it in plain English what do
00:34:02
you mean I suspect that if you put three
00:34:06
or four of the smartest data scientists
00:34:08
in the world they would get to a very
00:34:11
different answer than the answer that
00:34:13
has been arrived to I don't know whether
00:34:14
that'll validate or invalidate the claim
00:34:17
yeah but the quality of the people that
00:34:19
are able to interrogate this data is
00:34:22
directly correlated to the output that
00:34:24
is created well listen we all want the
00:34:26
data clean Ben I'll maybe I'll let you
00:34:27
you kind of answer the question from
00:34:29
your perspective do you think there is
00:34:32
any chance that a swing state could be
00:34:35
swung by you know this strategy and in
00:34:38
addition to that Trump is a populist all
00:34:41
these people and his biggest gains were
00:34:43
with people from South America Mexicans
00:34:45
Etc in this last election so and
00:34:48
noncollege educated so if you were going
00:34:51
to plot this incredible strategy it
00:34:52
seems like the Democratic strategy of
00:34:54
importing a bunch of Voters is the
00:34:55
stupidest possible strategy because the
00:34:57
Republican party has won those people
00:35:00
well I don't think that it would be a
00:35:01
great short-term strategy because of the
00:35:03
the problems that you mentioned in terms
00:35:04
of the the size of the voting gaps even
00:35:06
in close swing States although obviously
00:35:07
you have outlier cases like Florida in
00:35:09
2000 where the entire state is being
00:35:10
decided by hundreds of votes and there
00:35:13
you actually could see a state actually
00:35:14
shift on that basis it's a rarity but it
00:35:17
does happen and and in some cases
00:35:18
decides a presidential election uh when
00:35:20
when you're talking however about the
00:35:22
long-term play I think the question that
00:35:24
needs to be asked is if you are
00:35:25
importing a bunch of people who are more
00:35:27
dependent than average on the American
00:35:29
government for example or who are not
00:35:31
interested in assimilating to free
00:35:33
market values for example or Free Speech
00:35:35
values uh or or who come in and then
00:35:38
many of these people are going to get
00:35:39
married many of these people are going
00:35:40
to have kids they're going to marry
00:35:41
American citizens they're going to have
00:35:42
children who are American and then they
00:35:44
stay now you're talking about actually
00:35:45
generating a change in the voting
00:35:47
population and that isn't a right-wing
00:35:48
Point that's a point that was made by
00:35:49
Roy toera all the way back in 2004 when
00:35:51
he was a Democrat and he was making the
00:35:53
case essentially there was a demographic
00:35:55
wave that was going to shift the
00:35:56
electorate in the United States in the
00:35:58
direction of Democrats permanently now
00:36:00
the point that you're making is that
00:36:01
even as a long-term strategy that might
00:36:03
be a bad play because it may be that
00:36:04
these populations shift over time that
00:36:06
doesn't mean that that's not the intent
00:36:07
in the moment meaning wrong could could
00:36:10
have gotten it wrong they could made a
00:36:12
very bad strategic decision Antonio I
00:36:15
think we have to drop you off here any
00:36:16
closing comments you want to make and I
00:36:18
just want to thank you I know you've got
00:36:20
other things you could be doing in your
00:36:22
life but just on behalf of the American
00:36:24
people who I speak for here on the
00:36:26
program we want to thank you all
00:36:28
Americans for your service to this
00:36:29
country and I know that you are balls
00:36:31
and Strikes and you're going to let the
00:36:33
data speak so I just want to thank
00:36:36
you I would close this on this
00:36:38
conversation which is go look at
00:36:40
California Look at California okay
00:36:43
Richard Nixon Ronald Reagan came
00:36:46
California Ronald Reagan signed amnesty
00:36:48
and you know some 40 years later it is
00:36:50
now of solidly blue State and I think U
00:36:54
some us on this program I know you Jason
00:36:56
are Refugee from California because of
00:36:58
that because of some of those policies
00:37:00
and I want to be I want you to be
00:37:01
careful about this because it is it is
00:37:03
actually the tip of the iceberg man we
00:37:05
we have a very small sample of data in a
00:37:08
couple of States it's the tip of the
00:37:10
iceberg and so I don't know what the
00:37:12
unintended conse will be long term but I
00:37:13
can tell you what already happened in
00:37:15
America where an amnesty program
00:37:17
actually turned a very large State you
00:37:20
know from one one party another and I
00:37:22
want to leave you guys this thought this
00:37:24
is not political I'm not doing it
00:37:26
there's no political motivation in my my
00:37:27
mind this is about America it's about
00:37:29
securing the American democracy and we
00:37:31
will shine light onto the data when we
00:37:33
can we prefer these people to
00:37:36
prosecution and we're going to keep
00:37:37
looking we'll keep going and the data
00:37:39
will lead us and the truth will lead us
00:37:42
and it'll eventually come out in the
00:37:42
sunlight you're right but we're going to
00:37:44
follow the truth that's our primary
00:37:46
motive that that is that is our
00:37:48
operating parameter and what we're going
00:37:50
to do right on all right thank you
00:37:53
Antonio gra and Contin success and love
00:37:56
to talk to you in 30 days when you have
00:37:58
your next
00:38:00
findings you're a you're a refugee from
00:38:02
California too aren't you yes yeah we
00:38:04
took off in 2020 during during covid we
00:38:07
took off my company took off we we all
00:38:08
got the hell out I I was born in
00:38:09
California so I spent 30 uh 36 years
00:38:12
there before before I moved uh and yeah
00:38:15
they they certainly did a good job of
00:38:16
wrecking that state I mean I did the
00:38:18
same thing you went to oh I don't know
00:38:21
where you I'm in Florida yeah my
00:38:23
company's in Tennessee I'm in Florida
00:38:24
yeah got it yeah I mean it's just you
00:38:27
can't rais kids in California and you
00:38:29
just think about the crime and taxes and
00:38:31
what you're getting for your dollar it
00:38:32
doesn't make any sense I mean I don't
00:38:34
White House is off the zoom boys now we
00:38:36
can start to really open it up okay now
00:38:38
we can open up
00:38:41
the okay what do you guys think about
00:38:44
what you just
00:38:45
saw B I'll let you go first as our guest
00:38:47
yeah I I I wish the entire Trump
00:38:49
administration were rolled out as well
00:38:50
as Antonio just rolled that out is is
00:38:52
what I would say totally you know I
00:38:53
think that that is high levels of
00:38:55
competence and expertise and a
00:38:58
meticulous message that that is data
00:39:00
first and difficult for anybody to deny
00:39:03
I think that the success of the Trump
00:39:04
administrations the success that they've
00:39:05
had are taking the 80 side of 8020
00:39:07
issues and I think that the success of
00:39:08
President Trump in 2024 was that he
00:39:11
oddly became the Normy candidate he was
00:39:12
the guy who was returns normaly
00:39:14
candidacy and in the face of of Biden
00:39:16
and the bizarreness of of herness of
00:39:17
Harris and you know I think that as we
00:39:20
see many of Trump's policies rolled out
00:39:22
the ones that are rolled out the way
00:39:24
that Antonio is rolling it out are
00:39:25
incredibly well received by the American
00:39:27
population because they're seeing
00:39:28
serious people doing serious work that
00:39:30
needs to be done and the ones that are
00:39:31
not rolled out that way I think are
00:39:33
going to be a little more unpopular with
00:39:34
the American people and that that's kind
00:39:36
of I want president Trump to succeed at
00:39:37
a lot of these agenda items and I don't
00:39:39
want his his good agenda items getting
00:39:41
essentially railroaded and and Run Over
00:39:44
By by the by the bad rolled out of other
00:39:46
agenda items so you think thoughtful is
00:39:49
good and well thought out constructed
00:39:52
and communicated what what um when you
00:39:55
talk about this being done right what do
00:39:57
you think being done wrong it could be
00:39:58
done better I guess would be a generous
00:40:00
way of saying it what what could they
00:40:01
communicate better I mean not to jump
00:40:03
into the the pile of rakes that is the
00:40:05
the tariff plan but I think that the I
00:40:07
think that the way that the tariff plan
00:40:09
was rolled out is about as bad a roll
00:40:10
out as you could do um you know the
00:40:12
reason I say that is not just because of
00:40:14
my disagreements on the actual policy
00:40:16
I'll either be right or I'll be wrong on
00:40:17
that but the way that it was rolled out
00:40:19
with with very with with essentially
00:40:20
kind of a surprise announcement um I
00:40:23
don't mind a surprise announcement if
00:40:25
what is then rolled out is not replete
00:40:27
with with with sort of
00:40:28
contradictory justifications um you know
00:40:31
statistics that that are labeled one
00:40:33
thing but really are not that thing uh
00:40:35
and and so it just it opens itself up to
00:40:37
all sorts of critiques from every
00:40:39
possible side of the if you want to make
00:40:41
the argument make the full make the full
00:40:42
scale wellth thought aru argument and
00:40:45
then we can argue over whether it's true
00:40:46
or not but there's there's four or five
00:40:48
different claims that are being
00:40:49
simultaneously made about the tariffs
00:40:51
one they're going to raise revenue two
00:40:52
they're going to reshore three that you
00:40:54
are going to somehow retrigger the world
00:40:56
trading system
00:40:58
some of these are mutually exclusive if
00:40:59
you're going to if you're going to
00:41:00
reshore you're not going to raise as
00:41:01
much revenue for example right those two
00:41:03
things are are mutually exclusive and
00:41:05
they're both being trotted out at the
00:41:06
same exact time if you're going to put
00:41:08
out a giant chart that the president
00:41:09
holds up that shows tariff rates plus
00:41:12
unspecified you know variable uh then
00:41:15
what I'd like to know is what the actual
00:41:16
tariff rate is a as opposed to what the
00:41:20
calculation seems to be which was the
00:41:22
trade deficit with a country divided
00:41:24
into the Imports to that Country and
00:41:27
that that has nothing to do with the
00:41:28
Tariff rate I mean just technically
00:41:29
speaking it has literally nothing to do
00:41:31
with the Tariff rate and so what that
00:41:32
means is now you're boxed in logically
00:41:34
if president Trump wants to do a
00:41:36
reciprocal tariff reduction for example
00:41:38
how do you do that because he actually
00:41:39
has used a stat a statistic for the
00:41:41
tariffs that have nothing to do with the
00:41:43
Tariff rate and are actually just trade
00:41:45
deficits so the only way to actually
00:41:47
Rectify that statistic is to have
00:41:48
Madagascar buy a bunch of American
00:41:50
product for example in order to get
00:41:52
their their quote unquote tariff rate
00:41:53
down you know that that sort of stuff
00:41:54
seems badly calibrated even if you like
00:41:56
the policy for example all right yeah
00:41:59
unless unless from a poker point of view
00:42:01
they spent many months declaring they're
00:42:03
going to do tariffs and everyone thought
00:42:05
they were bluffing and said everyone
00:42:06
said there's no way you're going to do
00:42:07
tariffs it's like someone in poker is
00:42:09
saying I'm gonna play every hand I get
00:42:10
I'm going to be crazy you don't believe
00:42:12
them and they actually have to do it in
00:42:15
order to get the negotiating leverage
00:42:17
that they need to be able to negotiate
00:42:19
trade deals ultimately and they have to
00:42:21
look a little crazy maybe I mean that so
00:42:23
you're that's your position freeberg in
00:42:25
the 4D chess or trying to rationalize
00:42:28
one kind of rational reason for why a
00:42:30
lot of smart people would end up putting
00:42:32
that board up that poster board up where
00:42:34
to your point Ben they said that these
00:42:36
are kind of the the tariffs that are
00:42:38
being levied Upon Our Country when in
00:42:40
fact it is simply the math of imports
00:42:43
minus exports divided by Imports that's
00:42:46
what the number was and and and it was
00:42:48
and it was maxed out at that number or
00:42:50
10% and that's what they did so they did
00:42:53
that basically as a way in my opinion it
00:42:55
looks like and I'm just trying to take a
00:42:56
read on this
00:42:58
that um they're using this as a way to
00:43:00
anchor for negotiations going forward to
00:43:02
make the case we are declaratively
00:43:05
crazily off the fraking ship going to do
00:43:08
whatever the heck we want to do here in
00:43:09
this Administration now everyone takes
00:43:11
them seriously now everyone shows up to
00:43:13
the negotiating table and now they can
00:43:15
actually negotiate and then announce a
00:43:17
series of win after win after win and
00:43:19
say we got this set of countries to
00:43:21
capitulate today this is the deal we
00:43:23
worked out it's a totally unique deal
00:43:25
this set of deals we worked out today
00:43:26
this set of deals we worked out today
00:43:28
and basically getting all the trade
00:43:29
representatives to the table by making
00:43:31
the case that they're actually willing
00:43:33
to go all the way to the wall on stuff
00:43:34
so I that's the only way I can kind of
00:43:36
rationalize this roll out Ben that's
00:43:38
what it feels like to me for months
00:43:40
they've been very declarative we are
00:43:42
going to do tariffs bessent said it to
00:43:45
us on our interview letnik said it to us
00:43:47
on our interview and no one took them
00:43:48
seriously I did I did by the way I I
00:43:50
will say that I took them totally
00:43:51
seriously so much so that I called my
00:43:53
financial adviser after the State of the
00:43:54
Union Address and told them to uh [ __ ]
00:43:57
my my stock and bond ratio in my
00:43:59
portfolio because I figured that
00:44:01
something like this was going to happen
00:44:02
I think you went heavy treasuries yes I
00:44:04
I I I went light stocks I'll say that
00:44:07
and and and the reason for that is
00:44:09
because again I think that the thing
00:44:11
about President Trump is that you he he
00:44:14
may not you know be serious in every
00:44:16
single thing that he says but he is very
00:44:18
clear that when he says a thing over and
00:44:20
over and over there is no hidden
00:44:21
motivation and this is the part that I
00:44:23
always have trouble with with sort of
00:44:25
the the 40 chess reads on President
00:44:26
Trump there's almost never a hidden
00:44:28
motivation he pretty much just says the
00:44:29
thing that he thinks right it's one of
00:44:31
the things that makes him so popular and
00:44:32
authentic is that there isn't a 40 chest
00:44:35
game being played If he if he says that
00:44:36
he wants a thing to happen it's because
00:44:38
he actually wants the thing to happen
00:44:39
now the thing about President Trump is
00:44:41
he's also a realist so if a bunch of bad
00:44:42
headlines hit him he may then change his
00:44:44
mind and decide that he wants to drive a
00:44:45
truck directly through the center of the
00:44:47
tariffs because the prices are going up
00:44:49
too much on for example semiconductors
00:44:50
so one of the big exemptions from these
00:44:52
tariffs is in fact in the area of
00:44:54
semiconductors again there you see a
00:44:55
sort of couple of different
00:44:57
justifications that are that are
00:44:58
mutually exclusive that are fighting
00:45:00
each other one of them is the idea we
00:45:01
need to resore semiconductor production
00:45:02
because it's a national security asset
00:45:04
and the other is it's we need to raise
00:45:07
revenue on semiconductors so he Exempted
00:45:09
them which kind of you know kind of
00:45:10
Boles up the logic and I I think that
00:45:13
the the there are a couple of tells that
00:45:15
that isn't what's it may listen I think
00:45:17
it may end up being the thing you're
00:45:18
saying I think the most likely result of
00:45:20
these tariffs is that within the next
00:45:21
few weeks the headlines are not good
00:45:23
president Trump starts driving trucks
00:45:24
through the center of the tariffs and
00:45:26
then he starts getting wins from various
00:45:29
parties outside that allow him to find
00:45:31
an off-ramp on some of these tariffs you
00:45:33
know a company in in Belgium says
00:45:35
they're going to build a factory in the
00:45:36
United States he has them to the White
00:45:38
House they have a big ceremony and then
00:45:39
he says and as a result of this we're
00:45:41
now lowering the tariffs in sort of the
00:45:42
same way he did with with Colombia when
00:45:43
he said not the university the the
00:45:45
country when he said he was going to hit
00:45:46
them with tariffs unless you accept
00:45:48
these these illegal immigrants and and
00:45:49
then they did so that very well might be
00:45:51
the offer I don't think that's what's
00:45:52
going on right now I think what's going
00:45:53
on right now is the strategy that
00:45:55
lutnick has repeated expressed which is
00:45:57
that they actually kind of like the
00:45:59
tariffs they actually think that this is
00:46:00
good economic policy and that between
00:46:01
1880 and 1910 was an amazing time in
00:46:04
American history and and so they do you
00:46:07
agree um I I think that that is a bad
00:46:10
read on economic history because there
00:46:12
are a lot of confounds there that are
00:46:14
being ignored uh among those confounds
00:46:17
would be the fact that actually
00:46:18
Industrial Revolution yes so a few just
00:46:21
name a few in the industrial revolution
00:46:22
extraordinar high levels of immigration
00:46:24
by the way during that period so you had
00:46:26
an incredibly cheap labor base that was
00:46:27
actually coming in into the United
00:46:29
States at that time massive expansion of
00:46:31
the American population no income tax
00:46:35
capital a newly discovered continent
00:46:37
right like like like truly like many
00:46:39
many compounds right and by the way less
00:46:41
International Trade generally so tariffs
00:46:42
aren't going to have the same sort of
00:46:43
impact on Global Supply chains as they
00:46:45
would now where every product that you
00:46:47
buy has gone through 10 different
00:46:48
countries in 10 different ways and so so
00:46:51
no I don't I don't think that that is a
00:46:52
comp um but that doesn't mean that that
00:46:54
lutnick doesn't think that it's a comp
00:46:56
for example and and I think that the
00:46:58
when when it comes to you know the roll
00:47:00
out again a methodical roll out I I I
00:47:03
totally get the crazy man Theory and I
00:47:05
think that sometimes president Trump
00:47:06
does that I'm hoping that that's what
00:47:08
he's doing but a good example of an
00:47:10
off-ramp he could have taken if that's
00:47:11
the thing he's trying to do so yesterday
00:47:13
in anticipation of this Israel which had
00:47:15
very very low tariffs on United States
00:47:17
Goods anyway announced they'd removed
00:47:18
all tariffs on American Goods right
00:47:20
there were no tariffs on American Goods
00:47:21
anymore and the administration that
00:47:24
afternoon listed their tariff rate at
00:47:25
33% and then hit them with a 17% tariff
00:47:29
for a country that win and just use them
00:47:32
as an example of a great partner exactly
00:47:35
exactly didn't didn't Canada do the same
00:47:37
didn't Canada drop tariffs like the the
00:47:39
morning of they were on CNBC and they
00:47:40
said we're totally willing to go to zero
00:47:43
and then the anchors correctly on CNBC
00:47:44
were like well then why haven't you done
00:47:46
that already to Ben's Point Israel did
00:47:49
do that and but I think your theory Ben
00:47:51
is like absolutely correct if you make
00:47:54
this analogy to what he did with
00:47:56
overturning ro8 it is the same exact
00:47:58
thing he told us over and over again I'm
00:48:01
going to put two maybe three people on
00:48:02
the Supreme Court I'm going to overturn
00:48:04
it and then afterwards he kind of wiped
00:48:06
his hands through it and was like listen
00:48:07
it's up to you guys I had nothing to do
00:48:09
with it he will tell you what he's going
00:48:10
to do he told you he was going to do
00:48:12
these tariffs he's done them uh and I do
00:48:15
think there's something embedded in what
00:48:16
you said Ben which is I think he likes
00:48:19
everybody to come to Mara Lago or to
00:48:20
come to the White House and he loves
00:48:22
doing deals he's addicted to it he wrote
00:48:24
a book The Art of the deal he loves
00:48:26
people coming to him hanging out and
00:48:29
shth maybe you could give us your
00:48:30
perspective crazy man the crazy
00:48:33
grandpa uh or this is a negotiating
00:48:37
tactic everybody has to come through him
00:48:39
or lutnick believes it as he said very
00:48:42
clearly I'm going to add a trillion
00:48:43
dollars in taxes here what what do you
00:48:45
think is going on here because if when I
00:48:47
went through all the top people on the
00:48:49
internet all our group of friends uh who
00:48:51
are deeply in finance I can't find
00:48:54
anybody deeply in finance who's not in
00:48:56
the administr who thinks this is well
00:48:58
executed or a good idea what's your
00:49:00
thought let me start by saying a couple
00:49:02
things to use the Donald rumfelt quote I
00:49:04
do agree with Ben tremendously that this
00:49:07
was a known known we mentioned this last
00:49:10
episode Donald Trump has been speaking
00:49:13
about tariffs for 40 plus years yep so
00:49:16
this is not a new thing and I think that
00:49:19
he tried this in Trump one but to your
00:49:23
guys's point it didn't really go well
00:49:25
because he didn't have the the team
00:49:27
around him that had his back and so it
00:49:30
was inevitable that he would have tried
00:49:31
it in Trump to he said it and he's been
00:49:34
able to do it so if you weren't planning
00:49:37
for it whoever was vested in this
00:49:40
outcome you really needed to be focused
00:49:44
on this it was a known known and so
00:49:46
there was a little dereliction of Duty
00:49:47
if you were caught off guard I think
00:49:49
that's one the second is and I we've
00:49:52
said this all year since January one on
00:49:55
this pod we started it even with the
00:49:57
with that poly Market bet that I made
00:50:00
which is the Trump Administration does
00:50:02
not
00:50:03
care about the stock
00:50:05
market and by the way this the trade
00:50:08
actually closed out so congrats to all
00:50:10
these people that won $650,000 on let me
00:50:13
just explain poly Market put a betting
00:50:15
Market suggested by chaai haa they are
00:50:18
partners of ours Magnificent Seven
00:50:20
shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in
00:50:23
2025 this was free money this was like
00:50:26
the stock Market giving out free money
00:50:28
but why did this happen this happened
00:50:31
because it was very clear to me early on
00:50:33
that the rhetoric had shifted to say we
00:50:36
care about Maga we care about people
00:50:40
that have working class and middleclass
00:50:43
jobs none of those folks are deeply
00:50:45
invested in the asset economy the way
00:50:48
maybe some of us are and so it was
00:50:50
directionally clear and by the way Scott
00:50:53
bessent what a cold ass quote yesterday
00:50:58
the equity Market selloff is a MAG seven
00:51:01
problem not a Maga problem so there
00:51:03
again
00:51:04
putting all of this into the realm of
00:51:07
this is a known known so I think it's
00:51:09
pretty clear one Trump has had a 40-year
00:51:12
view on tariffs they're going to go
00:51:14
through with this and they're going to
00:51:15
see it through I don't think you're
00:51:16
going to see this Grand capitulation two
00:51:19
they are okay with the volatility in the
00:51:21
equity markets and then three which is
00:51:23
the other thing that we've been talking
00:51:24
about a lot is where does this move our
00:51:27
practical financing cost what is this
00:51:30
right we've talked about this we have
00:51:32
trillion dollars we need to finance in
00:51:34
the next 9 months so the singular goal
00:51:37
in my opinion of the White House has
00:51:40
been move the tenure as aggressively and
00:51:43
as quickly as possible and look what
00:51:45
they've done as of yesterday it's
00:51:47
unbelievable what's happened in the
00:51:48
tenure you know you were kissing
00:51:51
4% and we talked about this if it had
00:51:54
gone in the other direction guys 30 or
00:51:55
40 bases points and it touched 5% you're
00:51:58
talking about hundreds of billions of
00:52:00
dollars of extra money that would not
00:52:03
have been found that would have had to
00:52:05
be printed right and now this is
00:52:07
hundreds of billions of dollars that we
00:52:09
will save so if we cut rates If the Fed
00:52:13
Cuts rates that's all predicated this
00:52:16
doesn't matter anymore no this is this
00:52:17
is fed doesn't control the back end of
00:52:20
the curve on the treasury the treasury
00:52:22
markets the government sells treasuries
00:52:24
governments will option 10 years the
00:52:26
auctions will clear at around 4% it is
00:52:29
an enormous like as an American what we
00:52:32
should all be thinking is irrespective
00:52:34
of what you think you know or what you
00:52:36
think you like about tariffs we should
00:52:38
all have a moment where we exhale
00:52:40
because the long end of the curve is
00:52:43
giving us a respit in a storm and we
00:52:46
should be incredibly thankful because
00:52:49
know what I'm referring to chop is you
00:52:51
said yesterday Jerome pal you're on the
00:52:53
clock so maybe you could explain what
00:52:54
you meant by that okay so this is that's
00:52:57
a different part of the curve I
00:52:59
understand it's a different thing but
00:52:59
I'm just trying to put these two things
00:53:01
together because those are the two
00:53:02
things were saying this action took will
00:53:06
enable now okay so let's play the ball
00:53:07
where it lies okay the Wall Street Smart
00:53:10
money thought this was a 250 billion
00:53:13
event they were wrong this is part of
00:53:15
why the stock market has reacted so
00:53:17
violently today this is a $750 billion
00:53:20
to trillion dollar event okay this is a
00:53:22
big moment in the market so what does it
00:53:26
create it creates the risk of a
00:53:28
recession how do you minimize that risk
00:53:32
that is all about how easy it is for the
00:53:35
average person to be able to borrow
00:53:37
money where is that dictated that is
00:53:39
more dictated by the fed and how they
00:53:42
price the front end of the curve so what
00:53:44
we need to have happen now is while
00:53:46
Scott is out financing $6 trillion do on
00:53:49
the back end we now need to get Jerome
00:53:52
pow to cut the front end and if you do
00:53:54
it aggressively enough you can introd
00:53:56
produce liquidity in a moment where
00:53:58
small and mediumsized businesses can go
00:54:01
and get financed to weather the storm
00:54:04
Jam I want to add on to your point just
00:54:06
so you guys know there's
00:54:07
roughly 12 to6 trillion dollars of
00:54:12
private corporate debt in America so
00:54:14
this is debt held by small businesses
00:54:16
medium businesses Partnerships that have
00:54:20
on average call it a 15% operating
00:54:23
margin so they're going to be under
00:54:25
pressure if there is some recessionary
00:54:28
risk to make sure they have access to
00:54:29
Capital and if you remember the
00:54:31
interview that bessent gave to us a
00:54:32
couple weeks ago he was very clear that
00:54:35
one of his mandates is to enable the Rel
00:54:38
leveraging of the financial system
00:54:41
meaning he wants to give Banks the
00:54:43
ability to issue more debt to introduce
00:54:45
more capital and more liquidity into the
00:54:48
markets by taking away some of the
00:54:50
regulatory restrictions that have made
00:54:52
it more difficult for the banks to issue
00:54:54
credit to business owners to individuals
00:54:57
so if they are successful in their
00:55:00
deregulatory efforts it will introduce
00:55:02
more liquidity into the market coupled
00:55:04
with deregulatory work that they're
00:55:05
making in the other parts of the
00:55:08
administration as this is their
00:55:09
declaration not mine their intention is
00:55:12
to make sure that that Capital flows
00:55:13
into building businesses building new
00:55:15
businesses underwriting new jobs
00:55:18
creating more employment that's the
00:55:19
theory that they're trying to execute
00:55:21
obviously it's part of this three-legged
00:55:22
stool but if it doesn't all work the
00:55:24
stool Falls over okay chamath give us an
00:55:27
example here and I'm trying to get you
00:55:29
to paint the entire picture here because
00:55:31
the Tariff cudgel is not making sense
00:55:35
it's not all good news right so let's
00:55:37
let's paint the let's so I'll give a
00:55:38
very specific example A friend of
00:55:42
ours runs a 100 plus year company I'm
00:55:46
just going to say it in generic terms so
00:55:48
that I don't betray his confidence but
00:55:50
problem and this is a business that's
00:55:53
been built over 100 years owned by an
00:55:55
American family in Incredible family and
00:55:57
they make products that we all know and
00:55:59
love and what did this action do so in
00:56:02
their example they're in a very
00:56:04
difficult position because they have as
00:56:07
David said a very tight operating margin
00:56:10
because they have to compete ferociously
00:56:12
against China and they've done
00:56:14
everything possible to maintain their
00:56:17
capabilities in America hire American
00:56:19
workers in the Heartland but still
00:56:22
compete against China it's tough and
00:56:25
this action today swings them from
00:56:29
profitability to a potential yearly loss
00:56:32
in a meaningful order of magnitude like
00:56:34
hundreds of millions of dollars so Jason
00:56:37
that's the other side of this tariff
00:56:38
coin so we have to find a way of finding
00:56:42
those examples and as Ben said excluding
00:56:45
them somehow or giving them reprieve
00:56:47
because that wasn't the intention I
00:56:49
think of what Trump was trying to do
00:56:50
yesterday that's an example of a company
00:56:52
that should be winning and should
00:56:54
continue to win and fight the good fight
00:56:57
against China and try to continue to
00:56:59
employ thousands of Americans but this
00:57:02
thing because they had some capacity in
00:57:04
some other countries not China by the
00:57:06
way got it blows the thing up and so now
00:57:08
you have to fix those things all right
00:57:10
Ben let me get you involved here I'm
00:57:11
going to play you a quick clip from Rand
00:57:13
Paul and I want to get your feedback on
00:57:17
executive power and then on terrorists
00:57:21
themselves and if it's a good idea or a
00:57:22
bad idea play the clip what's the
00:57:24
rationale for getting behind this
00:57:26
well one we should not live under
00:57:28
emergency rule the Constitution said
00:57:30
taxes are raised by Congress most
00:57:32
specifically taxes originate in the
00:57:33
house and come to the Senate so I'm
00:57:35
against emergency rule we are richer
00:57:38
because of trade with Canada and so is
00:57:40
Canada whenever you trade with somebody
00:57:43
when an individual buys somebody else's
00:57:44
product it's mutually beneficial or you
00:57:47
wouldn't buy it if the trade is
00:57:49
voluntary it's always beneficial there
00:57:51
is no Canada versus the US the consumer
00:57:54
wins when the price is the lowest price
00:57:57
tariffs raise prices and they're a bad
00:57:59
idea for the economy Ben your thoughts
00:58:00
on the two issues is trade good for
00:58:02
consumers this is what you know I think
00:58:05
is on top of everybody's mind that yeah
00:58:07
the whole Trump presidency and he won in
00:58:10
large part due to inflation and Biden
00:58:13
economics and that he was going to
00:58:15
reduce inflation and I think a lot of
00:58:17
people believe inflation's about to come
00:58:20
roaring back your thoughts on the two
00:58:22
issues well I mean obviously on a
00:58:23
macroeconomic level I totally agree with
00:58:24
senator Paul when it comes to the powers
00:58:25
of of the presidency I think that it's
00:58:27
pretty extraordinary that we should be
00:58:29
able to use the trade deficit as a
00:58:32
National Emergency sufficient to put
00:58:35
down what effectively amounts to a $700
00:58:37
billion tax increase on the American
00:58:39
people if you're talking about them
00:58:41
paying the price of of the tariffs on on
00:58:42
the other end and Congress you know I
00:58:45
think that if things get bad enough
00:58:46
there a bunch of you know streams
00:58:48
obviously here that cross one of the big
00:58:50
things here is that Congress is up for
00:58:52
re-elect in a year and a half and if the
00:58:54
Republicans lose Congress in year and a
00:58:56
half then whatever tricks president
00:58:57
Trump is is trying to pull in terms of
00:58:59
being able to rejigger the rate at which
00:59:01
we are paying back our our national debt
00:59:03
all that stuff goes by the wayside
00:59:04
because if Democrats win Congress pretty
00:59:06
much everything comes to a crashing Hall
00:59:08
and there are a lot of Republicans who
00:59:09
are in swing districts or in say R plus
00:59:12
five R plus 10 districts who are
00:59:13
suddenly going to feel feel pretty
00:59:15
vulnerable a recession takes everybody
00:59:17
with it it takes secretary bessent it
00:59:19
takes the president it takes J Vance
00:59:21
takes everybody with it recessions tend
00:59:22
to crush the president who is in power
00:59:24
at the time regardless what their
00:59:26
long-term plan is when they say
00:59:27
short-term pay for long-term gain again
00:59:31
I think that there are a few factors
00:59:32
here that I would like to see played out
00:59:34
for example if there is an inflationary
00:59:37
effect to the tariffs in terms in terms
00:59:38
of price does that mean that Jerome pal
00:59:40
is going to eject additional liquidity
00:59:42
into the markets by by decreasing
00:59:43
interest rates it's hard to see how I
00:59:44
mean he's holding the interest rates
00:59:45
steady right now without decreasing the
00:59:47
interest rates despite president Trump
00:59:49
basically blasting him publicly since
00:59:52
before he was even the president
00:59:55
formally he just the president President
00:59:56
elect that time so again it's hard for
00:59:58
me to see how all of this squares into
01:00:00
what looks like a a really
01:00:02
well-calibrated policy and and then
01:00:04
beyond that in the long term tricks that
01:00:08
we play with regard to the rate of
01:00:09
interest paying back our national debt
01:00:11
are not going to be sufficient to pay
01:00:12
back our national debt unless we have
01:00:14
robust economic growth and so a lot has
01:00:16
to be bet on the robust economic growth
01:00:18
out out earning essentially the the
01:00:20
levels of debt that we are are currently
01:00:22
racking up and while I love what doge is
01:00:24
doing the systemic drivers of our
01:00:26
national debt are not actually being
01:00:27
touched at this point by Doge I mean
01:00:28
it's it's the it's the means tested
01:00:29
welfare programs that are really the
01:00:31
systemic long-term drivers of our
01:00:32
national debt and Military I think would
01:00:34
be number two yeah milit milit military
01:00:36
as a percentage of of the of the GDP or
01:00:38
as a percentage of the budget has been
01:00:40
you know relatively stable and in some
01:00:41
cases decreasing since since the end of
01:00:43
the Iraq War true but that but that that
01:00:46
when when it comes to the means tested
01:00:47
welfare programs those continue to grow
01:00:48
as a percentage of the budget and over
01:00:50
time are increasingly unfunded yeah as
01:00:53
our population ages and the population
01:00:55
grows
01:00:56
freeberg putting aside executive power
01:00:59
in the midterms which yeah that that
01:01:01
would change everything what are your
01:01:03
thoughts on just inflation and tariffs
01:01:06
and the chance that this comes back and
01:01:08
explodes in the administration's lab
01:01:11
well I think there are three
01:01:12
consequences not necessarily related to
01:01:14
inflation that are just worth spending
01:01:16
time on one of which I don't think gets
01:01:18
talked about enough the first is just
01:01:21
the challenge of tariffs in general and
01:01:24
I shared this clip with you guys over
01:01:25
the group chat yesterday from Ronald
01:01:27
Reagan talking oh it's so funny I have
01:01:29
it chewed up I actually edit it let's do
01:01:31
that let's play this clip and get your
01:01:32
reaction and today many economic
01:01:34
analysts and historians argue that high
01:01:37
tariff legislation passed back in that
01:01:39
period called the smooth Holly tariff
01:01:42
greatly deepened the depression and
01:01:44
prevented economic recovery you see at
01:01:46
first when someone says let's impose
01:01:48
tariffs on Foreign imports it looks like
01:01:50
they're doing the Patriotic Thing by
01:01:52
protecting American products and jobs
01:01:55
and sometimes for a short while it works
01:01:58
but only for a short time what
01:02:00
eventually occurs is first homegrown
01:02:02
Industries start relying on government
01:02:04
protection in the form of high tariffs
01:02:07
they stop competing and stop making the
01:02:09
Innovative management and technological
01:02:11
changes they need to succeed in world
01:02:14
markets and then while all this is going
01:02:16
on something even worse occurs people
01:02:19
stop buying then the worst happens
01:02:22
markets shrink and collapse businesses
01:02:24
and industries shut down and millions of
01:02:26
people lose their jobs the memory of all
01:02:29
this occurring back in the 30s made me
01:02:31
determined when I came to Washington to
01:02:33
spare the American people the
01:02:35
protectionist legislation that destroys
01:02:37
Prosperity so let me just say three
01:02:39
things that I think are going to be
01:02:40
important consequences one of which
01:02:42
doesn't get talked about much at all the
01:02:44
first is the important point about the
01:02:46
decline in competitiveness that arises
01:02:48
when you use protectionist tactics like
01:02:50
import tariffs so ultimately in order to
01:02:53
be competitive in the market you need to
01:02:55
have a free market to test how good you
01:02:57
are relative to your competitors and if
01:03:00
you use tariffs or other taxes or other
01:03:03
government intervening systems to
01:03:05
distort the natural forces of markets
01:03:08
meaning there's a buyer and a seller
01:03:10
there may be multiple Sellers and
01:03:11
ultimately the buyer will choose the
01:03:13
best seller then you're creating a
01:03:16
disincentive for American Enterprise to
01:03:19
be more competitive we lost
01:03:20
manufacturing because we weren't
01:03:22
competitive in manufacturing putting a
01:03:24
tariff on other manufactur ing countries
01:03:26
does not make Americans more competitive
01:03:29
it basically gives American businesses a
01:03:32
crutch David so let's talk about
01:03:34
manufacturing so if I'm using a
01:03:36
traditional assembly line with low
01:03:37
efficiency systems I'm going to be more
01:03:40
expensive to make a device than a
01:03:42
Chinese Factory that's built with a lot
01:03:43
of automation high efficiency systems
01:03:46
Etc and so if I'm saying well to buy the
01:03:48
Chinese product you got to pay twice as
01:03:50
much because there's a tariff now the
01:03:51
American company does not have an
01:03:53
incentive to invest in autom
01:03:56
or building better technology or
01:03:58
adopting new technology to make
01:04:00
themselves competitive in the
01:04:01
marketplace so that's the challenge with
01:04:03
tariffs long term is that they distort
01:04:05
Economic Consequences that arise in a
01:04:07
traditional free market system the
01:04:10
second consequence I think is important
01:04:12
is under this gu and in the near term
01:04:14
the effect of some of these tariffs is
01:04:15
going to be the loss of revenue for a
01:04:17
significant chunk of the American
01:04:19
businesses in particular I'll use one
01:04:22
example people may not remember this
01:04:24
because it wasn't that big of a thing
01:04:26
but between 2016 and 2020 during the
01:04:28
last Trump Administration there was a
01:04:30
continued kind of tariff and trade
01:04:31
escalation between Trump and China and
01:04:34
during that time China stopped buying
01:04:36
American a exports and China is the
01:04:38
biggest buyer of American agricultural
01:04:40
products as a result the Trump
01:04:42
administration had to issue two support
01:04:45
payment checks to Farmers that totaled
01:04:47
$28 billion in 2018 and 2019 just
01:04:52
because of that China stepping out of
01:04:54
the buying Market American farmers
01:04:57
represent a large amount of the voting
01:04:59
block for the Republican party and so my
01:05:02
I think that the second consequence is
01:05:03
going to be that there is going to need
01:05:04
to be financial support which means
01:05:07
increased government spending if we
01:05:09
intend to keep the tariffs in place and
01:05:11
the global market stops buying American
01:05:13
exports that's the second Consequence
01:05:15
the third consequence which is the one I
01:05:16
am most worried about which I think
01:05:18
about a lot is China had the state
01:05:22
council meeting a couple days ago and in
01:05:25
that state council meeting they
01:05:27
announced a series of measures and a
01:05:28
series of steps that they would be
01:05:30
willing to take an IP infringement in
01:05:34
the case of retaliatory tariff
01:05:37
escalation in a trade War what that
01:05:39
means is that China May step up and say
01:05:41
you know what we are disregarding all of
01:05:44
the IP rights held by IP rights holders
01:05:46
around the world and they could steal IP
01:05:49
more openly more brazenly and because
01:05:51
they have a lower cost of manufacturing
01:05:53
they have a larger manufacturing base a
01:05:54
lower cost of power
01:05:56
they could basically take the only thing
01:05:58
that much of American Enterprise relies
01:06:00
on which is our IP rights and say we're
01:06:02
just going to well people might say oh
01:06:03
they already do that they already do
01:06:05
that they do it to an extent but imagine
01:06:07
if China just made copies of Microsoft
01:06:09
Word and started selling it around the
01:06:11
world for $5 yeah I mean they did that
01:06:14
internally for some period of time then
01:06:16
they started to respect it internally
01:06:17
but they've never done it great point
01:06:19
and shipping Disney films overseas
01:06:21
that's right and so now imagine if they
01:06:22
started taking all of American
01:06:24
manufacturing drawings blueprints
01:06:26
designs and they have all this
01:06:27
manufacturing capacity and they sold
01:06:29
everything at 10 cents on the dollar to
01:06:31
all of the global markets that the US is
01:06:32
now cutting trade ties with because of
01:06:34
the the Tariff escalation and China says
01:06:36
we don't care about your IP rights
01:06:38
anymore we don't care because you've cut
01:06:39
us off the rest of the world needs
01:06:41
someone that will sell to them I will
01:06:42
also say China One thing that's not
01:06:44
talked about which I'll add in seems to
01:06:46
have developed three
01:06:48
nanometer semiconductor manufacturing
01:06:50
technology which is going to go into
01:06:52
production in Q3 of 2025 and will end up
01:06:54
being in full production 2026 this will
01:06:57
move the base from Taiwan potentially
01:06:59
into China they are developing
01:07:01
lithography systems they are developing
01:07:02
Advanced semiconduct Manufacturing
01:07:04
Systems and they will effectively have
01:07:06
everything from energy to the minerals
01:07:09
to the manufacturing capacity to support
01:07:11
and service all and the software now all
01:07:13
of technology and so we are in a really
01:07:15
disadvantaged position if China does
01:07:17
choose in this moment to disregard the
01:07:19
IP rights of American businesses so they
01:07:21
they have the ability to to swing back
01:07:24
at us chamat you who wrap us up here and
01:07:27
yeah I'll take the other side of all of
01:07:29
this yeah I'll start with again there's
01:07:32
no point prognosticating when they're
01:07:35
just telling
01:07:36
you what they intend to do Nick you want
01:07:39
to play the clip I could see in the next
01:07:41
few years that we are going to have to
01:07:43
have some kind of a grand e global
01:07:47
economic reordering is something on on
01:07:50
the equivalent of a new Bretton Woods or
01:07:52
if you want to go back like a a treat
01:07:56
something back to the steel agreements
01:07:58
or the Treaty of Versailles I mean what
01:08:00
what is that just a kind of like
01:08:01
refresher what are we talking about
01:08:03
we're talking about commercial relations
01:08:04
between at the time 44 countries right
01:08:08
this is a big statement I don't think
01:08:10
that these kinds of things are said
01:08:12
casually at a Manhattan Institute
01:08:15
cocktail
01:08:16
hour and I think that people understand
01:08:19
if you're kind of like steeped in the
01:08:21
history of it how important these kinds
01:08:23
of statements are so I think take this
01:08:26
similarly to how I take Trump's rhetoric
01:08:29
on tariffs and I'm spending some time
01:08:32
trying to Now
01:08:34
understand how are the scenarios that
01:08:36
could play out because I think David is
01:08:39
right if you assume the status quo
01:08:41
meaning what are the risks but what
01:08:44
they're saying is we're going to
01:08:45
question this we're actually going to go
01:08:47
here and just totally rewrite that if
01:08:50
that happens as part of this all bets
01:08:53
are off in my opinion I don't think any
01:08:55
of us know with any certainty what a new
01:08:58
economic framework would look like and
01:09:00
if Scott is basically prepping himself
01:09:03
to say hey put me in coach I'm ready I
01:09:07
would take that
01:09:09
seriously Ben what should be let's talk
01:09:12
about onshoring and bringing these jobs
01:09:16
bringing these factories back to America
01:09:18
it seems to me a bit crazy that we're
01:09:21
going to make fast fashion and people's
01:09:24
Coachella aware and their anchor you
01:09:27
know USBC cables here pharmaceutical
01:09:29
sure we need that for strategic purposes
01:09:31
we obviously need military and chips but
01:09:34
outside of that is there some rationale
01:09:37
here when we have the lowest
01:09:38
unemployment of our lifetime and
01:09:40
everybody wants to come here you know to
01:09:43
immigrate to this country to doing these
01:09:45
tariffs and trying to create jobs here
01:09:47
that we don't necessarily need we have
01:09:50
too much employment right now in the
01:09:53
market and not enough bodies to fill all
01:09:55
the open job wrecks what are your
01:09:57
thought I mean I think one of the things
01:09:58
that's really fascinating is the the
01:10:00
kind of difference in messaging that you
01:10:01
hear between the treasury secretary
01:10:03
Howard lutnick and the Commerce
01:10:04
Secretary and the president I mean
01:10:06
they're all messaging kind of different
01:10:07
things I think secretary bent is making
01:10:09
the strongest case for for what's being
01:10:11
done with this sort of long-term what's
01:10:13
what is reordering look like and and
01:10:15
even there I'm I'm still lacking Clarity
01:10:16
on what a reordered World Trade
01:10:19
relationship actually what is the end of
01:10:20
the rainbow there what does that
01:10:21
actually look like when all is said and
01:10:23
done so that I can kind of grasp exactly
01:10:25
what that what he wants that to look
01:10:26
like um I think that you know secretary
01:10:29
letnik seems to actually just like
01:10:30
tariffs and president Trump seems to
01:10:32
have a picture in his head when it comes
01:10:33
to factories that that we're going to
01:10:35
you know Revitalize the steel mills that
01:10:37
we're going to be we we're going to be
01:10:38
doing the kinds of jobs that we did back
01:10:40
in the 1950s there sort of a Nostalgia
01:10:42
that that that President Trump has in
01:10:44
sort of his own mind about these sorts
01:10:46
of jobs that by the way nobody in Modern
01:10:48
Life actually wants to work at if if you
01:10:50
were to work at a Ford factory in 1953
01:10:52
in an non-air conditioned Factory
01:10:53
riveting for a living you would should
01:10:55
be quite unhappy and and you should be
01:10:56
very happy that actually there are
01:10:57
machines that do that now and and you
01:10:59
hear this kind of talk sometimes bandied
01:11:01
about not just with regard to offshoring
01:11:03
both with regards to technology and
01:11:04
machines I mean I I've talked to I
01:11:07
remember a few years back in 2018 I
01:11:08
talked with Tucker Carlson on my program
01:11:10
and he literally said that he would
01:11:11
outlaw self-driving cars because it
01:11:12
would it would get rid of white trucker
01:11:15
jobs you know Blue Collar trucker jobs
01:11:17
in in Ohio and Michigan and when I said
01:11:19
well that sounds kind of Lte he said
01:11:21
well the Lites had a point and and you
01:11:23
know then suggested that on the basis
01:11:25
safety he would ban it and I remember
01:11:26
asking him but those those self-driving
01:11:29
cars will presumably be more safe than
01:11:31
than humans driving said safer yeah yeah
01:11:33
and what he actually said was well you
01:11:35
know I you asked me on what grounds I
01:11:36
would ban it not not whether that was
01:11:38
true or not but yeah you know I I think
01:11:40
that that that is I think I think this
01:11:42
is the danger that particularly Tech
01:11:44
runs when we're talking about these
01:11:45
sorts of things is is to believe that
01:11:47
the the Animus for trade relationships
01:11:50
around the world or the the
01:11:53
anti-competitive nature of many of the
01:11:55
the activities that are being taken are
01:11:56
relegated solely to sort of the foreign
01:11:58
sphere I think that you could easily see
01:12:00
that turn on quote unquote job loss that
01:12:03
is caused by AI or job loss that is
01:12:05
caused by technological gain I mean the
01:12:07
truth is that if you're talking about
01:12:08
job loss in the manufacturing sector in
01:12:10
the United States the vast majority of
01:12:11
job loss in the manufacturing sector is
01:12:12
not due to offshoring it's due to
01:12:14
technological advancements manufacturing
01:12:16
productivity in the United States is
01:12:17
actually dramatically risen since the
01:12:19
since the 1980 okay so let's play
01:12:21
conspiracy theorists for a second
01:12:22
because okay you're right Ben like you
01:12:24
want that Clarity I want want that
01:12:25
Clarity freeberg wants it jcal everybody
01:12:27
wants it but if this moment if it's a
01:12:30
catalyst to your point where everybody
01:12:32
is forced into the room and Trump leads
01:12:35
a a grand bargain across the 50 or 60
01:12:39
most important trading partners in the
01:12:41
world what does that look like like it's
01:12:43
it's almost like okay we're
01:12:46
reestablishing something that's akin to
01:12:49
the United Nations and what the United
01:12:50
Nations was meant to be post World War
01:12:52
II but that institution has to failed so
01:12:56
this new thing exists purely on economic
01:12:59
lines and cooperation I don't know I I
01:13:02
struggle actually to your point to kind
01:13:03
of imagine what are the outcomes but
01:13:06
there's so many unbelievable outcomes in
01:13:08
that scenario if they were able to get
01:13:10
the top 50 commercial mertile countries
01:13:13
together in a room and say let's Hammer
01:13:14
something up I mean I totally agree with
01:13:16
that I think one of my questions however
01:13:17
is the if you take a look at at some of
01:13:19
the the examples that that Scott is
01:13:21
using there when he talks about the
01:13:22
Bretton Woods agreement if you're going
01:13:23
to talk about you know what ni did in
01:13:26
debasing the dollar Versa if you're
01:13:27
talking I mean Versa at least would be a
01:13:29
better example in the sense that you
01:13:30
didn't have a global Hedon at the time
01:13:33
if you're talking about the BR wood
01:13:34
system literally the rest of the world
01:13:35
effectively did not exist in the post
01:13:37
World War II era so what is everybody
01:13:38
going to bet on they have to bet on the
01:13:39
American dollar there's no other choice
01:13:41
by the time that Nixon decides to go off
01:13:42
the gold standard essentially he has to
01:13:44
rely on the organization of the Petro
01:13:46
Dollar in order to make sure that people
01:13:48
don't dissociate from the United States
01:13:50
what is the thing that's going to draw
01:13:51
people to the United States as opposed
01:13:53
to looking to a comp in competitor like
01:13:56
a that's a great question so what is
01:13:58
that thing what do you think that that's
01:13:59
a great to mind yeah I mean AI is the
01:14:02
only possibility which is why I think
01:14:04
the AI regime inside the Trump
01:14:05
Administration is so deeply important I
01:14:07
also think this is why I'm warning about
01:14:09
you know the possibility that the sort
01:14:10
of anti-free Market forces that that are
01:14:12
related to tariffs aren't just related
01:14:14
to tariffs in some quarters this is
01:14:15
where populism can kind of run out of
01:14:17
control and start to actually turn
01:14:19
against some of its Tech masters in some
01:14:21
of these cases and so one one of the
01:14:23
things that I'm very concerned about is
01:14:24
if I was talking Danielle Smith who's
01:14:26
the premier of Alberta the other day and
01:14:28
she was talking about the fact that
01:14:29
Canada like she's she's very
01:14:30
conservative Alberta tends to be a more
01:14:32
conservative area of Canada and she was
01:14:33
talking about how if Mark Carney were to
01:14:36
become Prime Minister of Canada instead
01:14:38
of Pierre POV that he actually is eager
01:14:40
for the Terra War because it allows him
01:14:42
to reorient toward China and away from
01:14:44
the United States and and there are
01:14:45
countries that absolutely would love to
01:14:47
do that I mean there there's a case to
01:14:48
be made that the EU would love an easy
01:14:50
offramp with Russia and China and use
01:14:52
this as an excuse as as a way of
01:14:54
reorienting
01:14:55
back toward Russian oil for example and
01:14:57
then Chinese markets because that
01:14:58
Chinese market inputs right I mean you
01:15:01
have lower input costs which makes life
01:15:03
better for Citizens and citizens like
01:15:06
cheap things they like cheap oil in
01:15:08
their cars and they like cheap cars
01:15:09
they'll be bringing by cars into Europe
01:15:13
and and the thing that I'm worried about
01:15:14
is when when I look at the for forget
01:15:15
about Europe and forget about Canada for
01:15:17
a second the the the tariffs that that
01:15:18
kind of shocked me when I looked at that
01:15:20
list were all the tariffs on the
01:15:21
Southeast Asian countries right all of
01:15:23
those countries where where where
01:15:25
production has been shifting out of
01:15:26
China to places like for example Vietnam
01:15:28
or Cambodia the the production has been
01:15:30
shifting to those places specifically
01:15:32
because companies know the United States
01:15:34
yeah because the United States is going
01:15:35
after China well now why exactly would
01:15:38
you manufacture in Vietnam when Vietnam
01:15:39
is going to be with a 46% tariff rate on
01:15:42
the basis that we have a 90 it's more
01:15:45
than that Ben it's like they've made
01:15:46
those Investments over the last five or
01:15:48
six years and so you have tens and
01:15:50
hundreds of you know millions of dollars
01:15:52
billions of dollars of sunk cost now
01:15:54
what do you do in that moment these were
01:15:56
specifically designed Ben to be a
01:15:58
diversification strategy Japan was
01:16:00
paying their companies to build
01:16:02
factories outside of China and apple was
01:16:05
doing India Vietnam to build airpods and
01:16:08
laptops and even the iPhone being made
01:16:10
outside of China that diversification
01:16:12
strategy did you did you watch the did
01:16:15
you watch the presser yesterday the the
01:16:17
worst part for me I only had one moment
01:16:20
where I was like oh gosh he stopped on
01:16:22
Sri Lanka and he goes Sri Lanka
01:16:26
good old Sri Lanka
01:16:28
88% amazing Sri Lankan but Sri Lanka
01:16:32
very tough on us very was like acting go
01:16:35
ahead Ben you can do yours you can do
01:16:36
your dueling
01:16:38
about a great Trump okay and that's the
01:16:41
reason why Ben Shapiro's podcast number
01:16:44
two to all in now because of the Ben
01:16:46
Shapiro Trump
01:16:48
impersonation Ben Shapiro Great American
01:16:50
have you been to the white house uh I
01:16:52
have actually yeah invited in this or
01:16:56
are you still Trump or
01:17:00
Trumper it was a nasty never Trump now
01:17:03
he's Pro Trump exactly I had the same
01:17:06
exact trajectory as JD Vans except I
01:17:08
didn't end up Vice President of the
01:17:09
United States um but you know the I
01:17:11
think that you know the again one when
01:17:14
we talk about the roll out the the fact
01:17:15
that for example the meme online right
01:17:17
now and I know we all kind of live in me
01:17:18
moral that the meme is the president and
01:17:20
JD Vance lecturing a penguin because on
01:17:22
that chart is the herd Islands have you
01:17:24
even apologized for eating all that
01:17:27
mackerel no no wait what are you guys
01:17:29
talking about there's an island there's
01:17:32
an island that got a 10% tariff but
01:17:34
there's nothing on the island except
01:17:35
Penguins yeah it's a St this is where I
01:17:40
start come on then have you even
01:17:42
apologized
01:17:44
okay you got no cards there no cards
01:17:47
this penguin has no cards it's just you
01:17:49
have no cards to play okay stop stop
01:17:52
you've got a great tuxedo at least you
01:17:54
show in a okay good stuff um oh my
01:18:00
God by the way I think that Ben's
01:18:02
framing of this thank you for that
01:18:04
because that was really helpful to me
01:18:05
you're right like if if we try to
01:18:09
reconvene a new Bret and woods we have
01:18:11
to have an anchor
01:18:13
asset so it's a really great question
01:18:16
what is that anchor asset it has to be
01:18:17
AI but then you know underneath that AI
01:18:20
thing we have these two very complicated
01:18:22
problems one is a meaningful energy
01:18:24
problem I've been talking about this now
01:18:26
incessantly we don't have enough
01:18:28
electrons we just don't and then the
01:18:31
second is what freeberg mentioned before
01:18:33
which is that we have a very delicate
01:18:34
technological supply chain to make the
01:18:36
underlying silicon we need for these
01:18:39
things neither are trivial these are not
01:18:41
things that can be easily solved yeah
01:18:44
the AI supply chain is electricity we're
01:18:47
going from one terawatt to two China's
01:18:49
going from three to eight over the same
01:18:51
time period just to be clear so they're
01:18:53
accelerating the second is rare earth
01:18:57
materials that we don't mine for we've
01:18:59
outsourced Mining and Doug bergham told
01:19:02
me an interesting stat he's our
01:19:04
Secretary of the Interior he said we
01:19:06
only graduate 200 people a year in the
01:19:08
United States with degrees in mining oh
01:19:10
God beginning in the 90s when
01:19:11
globalization took off we basically
01:19:13
stopped mining in this country and moved
01:19:15
everything to all the places because we
01:19:17
had this nimbyism we didn't want to have
01:19:19
mining in our backyard the third
01:19:21
obviously is the manufacturing of
01:19:23
semiconductors which we don't do the
01:19:25
components to do the manufacturing so
01:19:27
there's a company called asml which
01:19:29
everyone that works in Tech knows about
01:19:31
they have these Advanced lithography
01:19:32
systems to make the semiconductors they
01:19:35
don't sell to China so now China's got
01:19:37
their own
01:19:38
homegrown systems the worst thing we
01:19:40
don't yeah we don't make any of that in
01:19:42
house so we we don't mine we don't have
01:19:44
enough power we don't have the materials
01:19:46
and we don't make lithography and we
01:19:47
don't have any Fabs I said this before
01:19:49
but one of the biggest National Security
01:19:51
threats that we created out of nowhere
01:19:54
was when the Wall Street Journal was
01:19:55
allowed to do a detailed article on asml
01:19:59
and one of the craziest and scariest
01:20:02
stats is that there is a person
01:20:05
literally one person that can operate
01:20:07
these machines that are trained by asml
01:20:09
and then forward deployed and there was
01:20:11
a woman that was profiled and I thought
01:20:14
this is a national security risk you
01:20:16
should not be Ting who this woman is
01:20:18
she's going to be kidnapped ran Hall
01:20:21
exactly at the end of the day what the
01:20:22
US has is the way
01:20:25
we've got 70 billion parameters and we
01:20:27
call that an AI model that 70 billion
01:20:29
parameters if someone gets a copy of it
01:20:31
they've got an AI model so how much of
01:20:34
an advantage do we really have and the
01:20:35
other thing that we had meanwhile
01:20:37
China's got the whole supply chain and
01:20:39
now they're making their own models and
01:20:40
the thing that we had was our trade
01:20:42
relationships with all the places that
01:20:43
had all of these things that we actually
01:20:45
needed right this is super high
01:20:47
functioning yes it was it was quite high
01:20:49
functioning and and then and then beyond
01:20:51
that you also have the problem of what
01:20:53
happens if there's just less demand for
01:20:54
for dollars on the world stage I mean
01:20:56
the exit of the dollar as the world's
01:20:58
Global Reserve currency is going to have
01:21:00
some pretty nasty spillover effects and
01:21:02
and it's going to require the government
01:21:04
to start sucking in more dollars from
01:21:05
the American population in order to pay
01:21:07
off all of these these debts that we
01:21:08
racking up so I mean all these things T
01:21:10
like you could see a world where we
01:21:12
magic our way out of this but this is
01:21:14
what I've been saying to jcal
01:21:15
dollarization is what ends up happening
01:21:17
I mean this is what the stable coins I
01:21:19
think is set up to counter people are
01:21:21
now saying hey we're going to have
01:21:23
there's two stable coins acts that are
01:21:25
going around here one of them doesn't
01:21:27
require like know your customer
01:21:29
anti-money laundering terrorism stuff
01:21:31
which is you know tethers according to
01:21:33
many reports bread and butter and then
01:21:35
the other one is to domesticate all this
01:21:39
business give it to Circle give it to
01:21:42
stripe give it to American companies and
01:21:44
force them to buy a certain percentage
01:21:46
of treasuries and allow them to give
01:21:49
interest which the stable coin bills are
01:21:51
now debating if they should give that so
01:21:54
I don't know if you guys are watching
01:21:55
that but that would be way to keep a
01:21:58
buyer for you know our currency there's
01:22:00
an analog to this that I think is
01:22:02
important like when you look at the debt
01:22:03
to GDP of Japan one of the critical
01:22:07
questions is how can you have a
01:22:09
functioning economy at 250 260% debt to
01:22:13
GDP right and we're at sort of like
01:22:16
teens right 120 something whatever and
01:22:19
one of the critical advantages that they
01:22:21
have is that they export a lot of
01:22:24
incredible Goods abroad but they have an
01:22:26
incredibly deep domestic pool of buyers
01:22:28
for their own Japanese bonds and so
01:22:32
there's this permanent bid that exists
01:22:34
because the net buyer can be a Japanese
01:22:37
person on the margins and they're always
01:22:39
there and it's not necessarily a person
01:22:41
it's an insurance company it's a pension
01:22:43
fund Etc the thing that US dollar stable
01:22:47
coins does is it starts to replicate one
01:22:50
of those advantages which again if you
01:22:52
think about having a release valve for
01:22:54
the US economy and if we needed to all
01:22:57
of a sudden scream to 200% debt to GDP
01:23:00
the real question is where's the
01:23:01
incremental net buyer of the US Bond and
01:23:06
it could be the person that has to back
01:23:08
the stable coin which would then say the
01:23:10
people in charge of the crypto strategy
01:23:12
we won't name names no if anybody knows
01:23:15
anybody that legislation needs to be
01:23:17
incredibly permissive because to your
01:23:19
guys's point we would want the bid to us
01:23:22
treasuries to exist and be as ferocious
01:23:25
as possible right yeah but I don't think
01:23:27
you should give let tether do it until
01:23:28
they do anest until they do a proper
01:23:30
audit and they stop doing money
01:23:32
laundering terrorism and all the crazy
01:23:34
stuff I'm not going all the way there
01:23:36
but what Circle does is I think quite
01:23:37
structured and you know Circle that's I
01:23:39
mean I think that's
01:23:42
circles usdc that's their pitch and I
01:23:45
think the Trump family now just launched
01:23:47
their own stable coin this week so
01:23:48
you're going to see 10 stable coins that
01:23:50
is a great way to you know create
01:23:52
competition and um I still think it's a
01:23:55
really it's it's it's the right question
01:23:57
that this Administration has a
01:23:59
responsibility to articulate what is it
01:24:03
that makes
01:24:04
America the Lynch pin of the global
01:24:08
economy of the western
01:24:10
democracy of the world is we enter this
01:24:13
new era with this Rising power in China
01:24:16
and I'm not sure that there's Clarity
01:24:19
today what do you think it is I'll do
01:24:21
you think it's both of you guys what do
01:24:23
you guys think I mean it's pretty clear
01:24:24
what it is the reason we keep winning
01:24:26
and the reason China keeps stumbling is
01:24:28
because we have rabid entrepreneurship
01:24:30
and an investment and crazy investment
01:24:32
infrastructure the fact that we will bet
01:24:34
on entrepreneurs and allow them to
01:24:36
become billionaires or allow them to
01:24:38
flame out and start again tomorrow that
01:24:40
entrepreneurial Spirit of America is
01:24:42
what needs to be preserved that's what
01:24:44
created SpaceX that's what created
01:24:46
Circle we just talked about stripe we
01:24:48
need the American exceptionalism and it
01:24:50
has to be backed by recruiting AKA
01:24:54
immigration of brilliant people like
01:24:57
Sachs like freeberg like chamath who
01:24:59
were not born in this country you can't
01:25:01
do it just based on Ben chapiro and jcal
01:25:03
you need to be looking around the world
01:25:05
for the smartest people and then
01:25:06
plugging them into the entrepreneurial
01:25:08
system here that's the magic that's the
01:25:11
golden America David what do you think
01:25:13
it is that's a very good I mean I think
01:25:14
that's credible I honestly don't know if
01:25:17
I can be dismissive of China like jcal
01:25:19
says they keep stumbling and blah blah
01:25:21
blah I I think that's absolutely wrong
01:25:23
there's a very good interview um what
01:25:26
are those guys names from the Brookings
01:25:27
institution that do that podcast then
01:25:29
you might know these guys the three guys
01:25:32
might is touch is that who you're
01:25:33
talking about or that's a different
01:25:34
podcast I'm not sure it's not in the top
01:25:37
100 I don't know yeah it's not in the
01:25:39
top they talked about China and they
01:25:41
talked about actually the rise in China
01:25:43
where they 30X GDP per capita and call
01:25:46
it 30 years because they allowed
01:25:48
entrepreneurs are you talking about Good
01:25:49
Fellas Good Fellas sounds right yeah St
01:25:53
that's right Good Fellows Good Fellows
01:25:56
yeah I think that was it they had good
01:25:58
talk on a good talk no no it's Waldorf
01:26:00
and Statler I think that's their Nam
01:26:02
waldor and styler those the ho in Good
01:26:06
Fellows MCM Ferguson Nick find a picture
01:26:10
of Waldorf and styler for freedberg to
01:26:11
Jo oh they're so great they're so great
01:26:13
so anyway they made the point that
01:26:16
because China allowed the
01:26:19
entrepreneurism of the individuals to
01:26:22
let the market Run free and have this
01:26:24
throttle when they let the people run
01:26:26
free they let entrepreneurism Thrive and
01:26:28
then sometimes they pull the throttle
01:26:29
back jcal and did that and they crash
01:26:33
the whole thing now they've pushed it
01:26:34
Forward again and that's what drives the
01:26:36
growth and the Improvement in
01:26:37
productivity and this extraordinary
01:26:39
abundance in energy in mining and now in
01:26:43
manufacturing and it's I think going to
01:26:45
lead to a Great era of prosperity for
01:26:47
China it's pretty clear with or without
01:26:48
the conflict with the US they've
01:26:51
dramatically improved the conditions in
01:26:53
that country over the last 30 years in a
01:26:54
really profound historic way so I I
01:26:57
don't I'm not going to be dismissive and
01:26:58
say that they're stumbling let's give it
01:26:59
to B and then I'll tell you what I'm
01:27:00
dismissive so so first of all I think
01:27:02
that China does face some serious real
01:27:04
serious structural problems ranging from
01:27:06
demographics to debt um and and I also
01:27:08
think that yeah and I also think that if
01:27:10
you take a look at sort of the history
01:27:12
of economic fascism which is what
01:27:13
they're attempting to do which is sort
01:27:14
of cap you know using capitalist
01:27:16
methodologies in order to prop up a a
01:27:19
very tyrannical government that will in
01:27:21
a c exactly and and so for a short per
01:27:24
period of time that seems like that will
01:27:26
work and then and then the problem is
01:27:27
you can find yourself in a blind alley
01:27:29
fairly quickly and right now ai is not a
01:27:31
blind alley but we also don't know
01:27:32
exactly Which Way AI is going to develop
01:27:34
in the most profitable way I mean the
01:27:35
amount of money that's been poured into
01:27:36
AI has not yet been justified by the
01:27:39
amount of of complet net on the on
01:27:41
return on the on the actual investment
01:27:43
obviously and so if you don't this this
01:27:45
is the benefit of the American Market is
01:27:47
that you have everybody chasing
01:27:48
everything all the time and one of those
01:27:50
things is going to hit the the benefit
01:27:51
of the Chinese market is you have
01:27:53
everyone chasing one thing all the time
01:27:55
if that's the thing that actually hits
01:27:56
they'll do amazing but it's possible
01:27:58
that they completely miss it but the
01:27:59
problem is I think and this is where you
01:28:01
get back to the political in the United
01:28:02
States and the and the necessity of
01:28:04
avoiding a recession is that to me the
01:28:07
scariest thing that that is happening in
01:28:09
inside the Trump Administration is not
01:28:10
something that's bad when President
01:28:12
Trump was inaugurated there was one
01:28:13
picture that spoke of the in that that
01:28:15
that kind of summed up the inauguration
01:28:16
was President Trump there with Tim Cook
01:28:18
and with the and with um and with Zuck
01:28:21
and with Elon and with all the
01:28:22
billionaires behind him all the all the
01:28:23
tech Bros right behind him if there is a
01:28:25
recession what comes next is not going
01:28:27
to be salutory to Innovation to
01:28:30
investment to technology to anything
01:28:32
remotely like that and so the idea of
01:28:33
short-term pain it better be really
01:28:35
really shortterm the American people do
01:28:37
not have patience for this and if the
01:28:39
and if if if it goes sideways then what
01:28:41
you're going to get is a populist revolt
01:28:42
on the left and a populist revolt on the
01:28:44
right that is going to take down
01:28:46
everybody who is even remotely connected
01:28:49
with this idea of free market capitalism
01:28:51
and so I I think that one of the dangers
01:28:53
in in sort of attempting to manipulate
01:28:55
the economy this way is that we're
01:28:56
saying okay we're going to we're going
01:28:57
to try these kind of methodologies of
01:28:59
government control in which we rejigger
01:29:01
the world economy in this way and that
01:29:02
way and then we'll magic our way out of
01:29:03
it with with stable coin and AI maybe or
01:29:07
maybe the best way to do this would
01:29:08
actually be to allow the thing to thrive
01:29:10
that has always thrived In America which
01:29:12
is lower the regulations let people
01:29:13
innovate let people fail let people
01:29:15
succeed get the hell out of the way and
01:29:17
yes actually do the things that you need
01:29:18
to do in cutting government debt by
01:29:21
doing the hard things and and the only
01:29:23
way you're going to able to do all those
01:29:24
things is through continued succcess not
01:29:26
paying to get to some long-term gain
01:29:28
it's got to be entrepreneurship and
01:29:29
there are some subfactors of it in order
01:29:32
to have a vibrant entrepreneurial
01:29:34
Community you need to have immigration
01:29:36
that's why I asked Trump on this thing
01:29:37
on this program can we get green cards
01:29:40
can we get people who have degrees here
01:29:42
especially coming out of Stanford to
01:29:43
stay in the country he said yes he'd
01:29:44
staple them on the degrees great the
01:29:47
next thing is getting leaan out and
01:29:49
ending the wrath of Lina Khan we need
01:29:51
m&a because when you have m&a the the
01:29:54
companies get bigger the fact that
01:29:56
YouTube and Android and AdSense were
01:29:59
purchased by Google made it into the
01:30:02
massive success it is on a global basis
01:30:04
today and the fact that meta was able to
01:30:06
buy things she may not like it when
01:30:07
these companies get too powerful but
01:30:09
what Jack ma what happened to Jack ma is
01:30:11
the reason freeberg that I don't believe
01:30:14
a dictator will ever compete with our C
01:30:16
country if we stay entrepreneurial and
01:30:19
not socialist socialism is a culde sec
01:30:22
as you're saying Ben and it might work
01:30:24
for a short period of time but then
01:30:26
someone like Xi Jinping is going to do
01:30:27
what dictators do which is implode he
01:30:30
saw Jack ma get popular he sent them to
01:30:33
get re-educated and do some painting and
01:30:35
he took up oil painting he got rid of
01:30:37
every educational company and pull up
01:30:38
the chart of Chinese investment Nick if
01:30:41
you have it boom it just got smashed and
01:30:44
this is what dictators do they do what
01:30:46
Putin did he invades Ukraine his economy
01:30:49
goes off the rails and this is what xiin
01:30:51
Ping do always imp me a step ladder to
01:30:54
get off your soap box so I can ask Ben a
01:30:56
question Ben when you said that in a
01:30:59
recession definitely not that's exactly
01:31:02
right how come I have a passion for
01:31:05
something you guys have to give me a
01:31:07
hard time you go on your passionate
01:31:10
rantt signaling eightball what do you do
01:31:12
you just shake it and some stupid some
01:31:14
stupid
01:31:17
statement Ben AG American exceptionalism
01:31:20
M Ben and I that's it I'm leaving the
01:31:22
the program Ben and I are
01:31:24
let me rant against dictators for a
01:31:25
minute my Kudos go ahead Ben okay you
01:31:29
should just go rant about the Trump
01:31:30
Administration and get your cabinet
01:31:32
position go ahead Ben when you talk
01:31:34
about in a recession they go after tech
01:31:37
companies what can you just explain that
01:31:39
more just explain that I'm not sure I
01:31:40
understood that totally okay so so there
01:31:42
there there's a recession and president
01:31:44
Trump just the way that people tend to
01:31:45
think of politics is is not on a
01:31:47
granular level they tend to see it on
01:31:49
sort of a pixelated level because most
01:31:50
people don't engage with politics on a
01:31:52
granular level they see a s painting
01:31:54
they don't see all the dots they just
01:31:55
see Sunday in the park with George right
01:31:57
and so when it comes to a recession the
01:31:59
image that's going to come to mind for
01:32:00
the Trump Administration is that this is
01:32:02
an Administration that is extremely
01:32:03
friendly to business particularly when
01:32:05
it comes to Tech and so whoever is
01:32:07
standing next to president Trump if
01:32:09
there if there is a serious recession
01:32:10
gets nuked gets caught in the Fallout
01:32:12
and if that happens then you will see a
01:32:14
resurgent left led by a Bernie Sanders
01:32:16
wing of the democratic party not a sort
01:32:17
of technocratic Obama esque you know as
01:32:20
recline abundance liberalism wi you're
01:32:22
going to get a a urgent Bernie Bernie
01:32:25
ISM on the left that basically says
01:32:27
these rich people screwed you in order
01:32:30
to get ahead you can feel it because
01:32:32
you're feeling the recession they're
01:32:33
still Rich you're still poor and and so
01:32:35
what you really need is a complete
01:32:36
rejiggering of the American economy
01:32:38
along the lines of fairness and you're
01:32:40
going to see something similar happen on
01:32:41
the right by the way so my friend man
01:32:43
ketti who is the the former editor of
01:32:45
the the Washington Free Beacon I believe
01:32:48
he he has a great point about
01:32:50
presidential elections he makes the
01:32:51
point that candidates don't become
01:32:53
president unless they they run against
01:32:54
their own party uh that that it is in
01:32:56
order to actually capture the
01:32:58
imagination of the American people you
01:33:00
almost always have to run inside your
01:33:01
own party against your own parties you
01:33:02
saw this most obviously with President
01:33:04
Trump but this was clearly true with
01:33:05
Barack Obama it it was true to a certain
01:33:08
extent uh with with George W bush even
01:33:10
who ran a compassionate conservative
01:33:11
campaign against the sort of
01:33:12
hard-hearted Gingrich Dole Republicans
01:33:15
it's Clinton Clint Clinton for sure did
01:33:17
this so I I think it's a great point
01:33:19
because then you have to start thinking
01:33:20
okay look at the we're turning the right
01:33:22
side of the aisle now let's say that you
01:33:23
have a politician on the right side of
01:33:24
the aisle what does he run against in
01:33:26
the TR because Trump has obviously taken
01:33:27
command tremendous command of the
01:33:28
Republican base and the Republican party
01:33:30
what is there to run against well if
01:33:31
there's an economic downturn do you
01:33:33
think that they're going to run against
01:33:34
Trump being not capitalist enough or do
01:33:36
they think they're going to run against
01:33:37
Trump being too capitalist too friendly
01:33:40
exactly and that's how you get a
01:33:41
populist Uprising on the right and what
01:33:43
you end up with is a horseshoe Theory
01:33:44
politics where both parties are in favor
01:33:46
of right both parties are in favor of
01:33:48
Lena Khan and by the way this is not a
01:33:50
rarity I mean I I think I think I think
01:33:53
that president is is an amazingly
01:33:55
brilliant guy he has also expressed kind
01:33:56
of public support for Lena Khan from
01:33:58
time to time right and that's inside the
01:34:00
Republican party and on the left
01:34:01
obviously there's tremendous support for
01:34:02
Lena Khan so if what we're saying here
01:34:04
is one of the things we need is not Lena
01:34:06
Khan we should be very careful not to
01:34:07
step on the rake and and then the thing
01:34:09
that hits you in the face is Lena Khan
01:34:11
right yeah right and this is why I said
01:34:13
my contrarian bet for this year was this
01:34:15
rise in uh socialist policy and the
01:34:18
response to some of the actions the
01:34:20
administration might take but how do we
01:34:23
avoid making the bottom half of society
01:34:26
feel included in all this wealth
01:34:29
generation Etc like what what is the
01:34:31
plan here is it Universal Health Care is
01:34:34
it lowering their taxes I mean the
01:34:36
administration says no taxes for people
01:34:38
under 150k we have to give something to
01:34:41
the working man and woman of this
01:34:43
country the people who feel that they
01:34:44
can't get rich who can't get to the
01:34:46
middle class does anybody here have a
01:34:48
suggestion for that I mean I do I
01:34:49
actually do have a suggestion and it's
01:34:51
it's actually shockingly easy president
01:34:53
Trump has a has a visceral connection to
01:34:56
blue collar workers in this country
01:34:57
clearly has a visceral connection he
01:34:59
should stop preaching that blue collar
01:35:01
workers are getting screwed and start
01:35:02
preaching that they're succeeding
01:35:04
because it's actually true truth okay
01:35:06
yes yes I mean I think that the the the
01:35:07
FIB the politicians always make Bank on
01:35:10
is the idea that for example the middle
01:35:11
class in America is completely dissolved
01:35:13
that is not statistically true the
01:35:15
middle class has turned into the upper
01:35:16
middle class okay and and actually all
01:35:19
Americans I say this on my show all the
01:35:21
time people have this again this sort of
01:35:24
eyed view of the 1950s which again was a
01:35:26
historical outlier because the rest of
01:35:27
the world didn't exist it been destroyed
01:35:28
but they also have this bizarre idea
01:35:30
that that you were better off to be 30
01:35:32
years old in 1980 than you are to be 30
01:35:34
years old in 2025 and all I can say is
01:35:36
in 1980 the only dude with a cell phone
01:35:37
was Gordon Gecko and he was a shoe box
01:35:39
and he was holding it to his head okay
01:35:40
the reality is that everything in your
01:35:42
life is better in 2025 on a material
01:35:45
economic level than it was in 1980 and
01:35:48
the the lie that politicians tell in
01:35:50
order to gain power is they say you're
01:35:52
you're getting screwed somebody is
01:35:53
screwing you I can unscrew the screwing
01:35:56
and and so there's there's this constant
01:35:58
sort of Race To The Bottom in terms of
01:35:59
this rhetoric and what you end up with
01:36:01
is in the end what can I promise you
01:36:04
that that I can then blame somebody else
01:36:05
for not having fulfilled the promise
01:36:07
president Trump I think could avoid that
01:36:09
because of this unique connection that
01:36:10
he has with bluecollar people where he
01:36:11
could say listen we're all on the same
01:36:13
side here right what we're doing here is
01:36:15
innovation I thought the most important
01:36:16
line that I heard from president Trump
01:36:17
during his his victory speech the night
01:36:19
that he won was he when he said to Elon
01:36:21
and it was kind of a throw line when he
01:36:22
said we love our Geniuses he said we
01:36:24
love our Geniuses and I thought yes
01:36:26
that's the thing we
01:36:27
need celebrate success celebrate
01:36:30
entrepreneur and this could be you and
01:36:32
and not and we're going to have hiring
01:36:33
programs you as Mark andreon has talked
01:36:35
about we need to have hiring programs
01:36:36
that are that are specifically designed
01:36:38
to find the best people not just abroad
01:36:39
but also in the United States who might
01:36:41
be under service in in rural areas of
01:36:44
the country or in Blue Collar areas of
01:36:45
the country find the next JD Vans find
01:36:47
the next guy who really needs you know
01:36:49
that that hand up like all those things
01:36:51
can be done a rising tide will lift all
01:36:53
[ __ ]
01:36:54
but this is the problem with the
01:36:55
short-term pain plan Americans have a
01:36:58
long memory and when it comes to
01:37:00
politics I think this happened with the
01:37:01
Biden Administration uh poit people
01:37:04
their relationship with politicians is
01:37:05
sort of like a married couple and and
01:37:07
Good married couples you know they kind
01:37:09
of talk through the the minor problems
01:37:10
that they're having in their marriage
01:37:11
and then and then things you know
01:37:12
continue to maintain and grow and get
01:37:14
better bad married couples what happens
01:37:16
is that they sort of ignore that the
01:37:18
kind of minor annoyances for years at a
01:37:19
time and then something bad happens and
01:37:21
the bottom just goes right out and the
01:37:23
this is the thing that I'm afraid of for
01:37:24
the Trump Administration everybody's
01:37:25
willing to ignore the things that are
01:37:27
kind of mildly annoying like penguins at
01:37:28
the White House or whatever uh up until
01:37:30
the point where there's a serious
01:37:31
recession at that point everybody kind
01:37:33
of looks around and goes why are we even
01:37:34
doing this I think that's exactly what
01:37:36
happened with Biden with the Afghanistan
01:37:37
withdrawal for example making a mistep
01:37:39
is the is the it's why I'm being
01:37:41
critical of the tariffs it's not because
01:37:42
I want Trump to lose it's because I want
01:37:43
Trump to win right I think he's doing
01:37:45
too many important things like the stuff
01:37:47
that Antonio there too many important
01:37:49
things happening to to take to roll the
01:37:52
dice on a strategy isn't even being
01:37:54
articulated if you're going to make the
01:37:56
case for a long-term gain I need to know
01:37:58
what the long-term gain is so I can make
01:37:59
the case to the American public as to
01:38:01
why they should endure the short-term
01:38:02
pain you know you're having surgery
01:38:03
because after the surgery you're going
01:38:04
to feel better but if I say you're
01:38:05
having surgery it's going to be some
01:38:06
short-term pain you say okay how am I
01:38:08
going to feel after the surgery and say
01:38:09
well I don't know you know maybe could
01:38:12
maybe who knows then why am I having
01:38:15
surgery we have so many job openings we
01:38:16
have the lowest unemployment of our
01:38:18
lifetime as you said consumers today can
01:38:21
get and live an incredible lifestyle
01:38:23
that the rich didn't have in 1980 the
01:38:25
car you can buy today can drive itself
01:38:27
for 20 30 40K you can buy use Tesla and
01:38:31
have this car that's better than any car
01:38:32
made in the last 50 years so you got
01:38:34
keep a positive then think about
01:38:35
generation tool belt you've got all
01:38:37
these you know plumbing jobs electrician
01:38:40
jobs construction jobs that pay
01:38:42
massively hourly wages that are
01:38:44
available for people today we have too
01:38:47
many job openings today and you never
01:38:49
hear Trump say that to your point it's
01:38:51
always this like everything's a disaster
01:38:53
I'll save you when in fact you don't
01:38:55
need saving go ahead free bir I'll
01:38:56
answer joff's earlier question about
01:38:59
what America can anchor to to attract
01:39:02
the rest of the world and I think it's
01:39:04
what's been the American story from the
01:39:07
beginning which is ambition we pioneered
01:39:10
the West we launched the Industrial
01:39:13
Revolution we went to space we landed on
01:39:15
the moon we had the Manhattan Project we
01:39:20
unleashed the information technology
01:39:23
Revolution with the development of the
01:39:26
transistor the ambition is what's been
01:39:29
kind of consumed by China in the last 20
01:39:32
years they've built 30,000 miles of
01:39:34
highspeed rail in the next 15 years
01:39:37
they're going to add more electricity
01:39:40
production capacity than the United
01:39:42
States times two has
01:39:45
today there's nothing short of ambition
01:39:49
coming out of China and it's what we're
01:39:51
lacking all of our political gambits all
01:39:54
of our debates are all centered around
01:39:57
what we're trying to fix that went wrong
01:39:59
in the past what we did wrong and what
01:40:01
we got to do to make it right and we
01:40:03
don't talk at all about the ambition of
01:40:04
where we can lead the world to next
01:40:06
China's the only one that's doing that
01:40:08
and I think that's where we need to kind
01:40:09
of have a bit of a important pivot on
01:40:12
the global stage if we want to be able
01:40:13
to kind of attract partners and also to
01:40:16
have Americans think outside of this
01:40:19
week where are we headed and I just I
01:40:21
don't know I mean I don't know if you
01:40:22
guys agree but I just feel like that's
01:40:23
one of the the key things that we've
01:40:24
kind of lost track of nerk put out a a
01:40:26
study just like this is very tactical
01:40:29
but it's part and partial of what you
01:40:31
and Jason are talking about do you guys
01:40:33
know that about 25% of all of our
01:40:37
utility workers in America became
01:40:39
eligible for retirement between 2017 and
01:40:42
2022 I did not no so most of the people
01:40:45
56% of all utility workers now have less
01:40:48
than a decade of experience you know
01:40:49
what that's resulted in in 2021 the
01:40:52
average Us customer of of an electric
01:40:55
utility experiened seven and a half
01:40:57
hours of service interruptions and it's
01:40:59
just
01:41:00
growing uh I think the average plumers
01:41:02
age 50 something we can't get people to
01:41:06
become plumbers nurk says that 19 States
01:41:08
now in the United States can face
01:41:10
rolling blackouts during normal Peak
01:41:12
conditions if these issues aren't
01:41:13
addressed and by the way this is that's
01:41:15
a human capital problem but if you
01:41:17
multiply that by 10 and 20 and 30 times
01:41:20
there was a different tweet I don't know
01:41:22
Nick if you could find it
01:41:23
that talked about an organization trying
01:41:25
to find people to help build nuclear
01:41:27
submarines did you guys see this quote
01:41:29
where they needed 100,000 people to
01:41:32
build nuclear subs in the United States
01:41:35
and they could barely find like a few
01:41:38
hundred yeah we we need to get better at
01:41:40
this stuff I mean the good news is we're
01:41:42
we're going to have robots to do this
01:41:44
Ben uh you know if I run for president
01:41:46
I'm one of the few people here on the
01:41:47
Pod who can uh my position is going to
01:41:50
be build three new cities with
01:41:53
five million homes in each because you
01:41:55
know starter homes families can't buy
01:41:56
starter homes you ever consider running
01:41:58
for office and if you did what would be
01:41:59
your platform I mean it would be pretty
01:42:01
horrifying to run for office it seems
01:42:02
like a terrible job and I think the root
01:42:04
age to run for presidents is now in your
01:42:06
70s so I have like three decades to
01:42:08
consider it but you know if if I were
01:42:11
going to run I I would be running on the
01:42:13
basic idea that in this country the only
01:42:16
thing that you are promised is is the
01:42:18
adventure and and I'm not going to make
01:42:20
you promises that I'm not going to lie
01:42:23
to you I'm not going to make you
01:42:24
promises that I can't keep about how I'm
01:42:26
going to fix your life because the truth
01:42:27
is I really can't all I can do is help
01:42:29
get the obstacles out of the way so you
01:42:30
can fix your life and you can make your
01:42:32
life better and I can help break the
01:42:33
institutions that have a strangle hold
01:42:36
on on your future and and there when
01:42:37
you're talking about electricians and
01:42:38
plumbers the truth is that we have set
01:42:40
up an enormous con game that is our
01:42:42
higher education system particularly in
01:42:44
the liberal arts subsidized by the
01:42:45
taxpayer when most jobs that that we're
01:42:48
talking about right here do not require
01:42:49
a college degree there's so many things
01:42:51
that that the Trump Administration
01:42:52
should be doing and is doing that again
01:42:54
that are great that they could break the
01:42:56
strangle hold on some of these things
01:42:58
that allow for more opportunity but I
01:43:00
think the thing that people really you
01:43:01
know the thing that I would say that I I
01:43:03
really think that maybe no other
01:43:04
politician would say and I can say
01:43:05
because I'm not a politician is your
01:43:06
future is re in America your future is
01:43:09
in your hands it is not in somebody
01:43:11
else's hands it is your responsibility
01:43:13
it is your responsibility to go out and
01:43:15
strive it is your responsibility to go
01:43:17
and succeed we want you to be able to to
01:43:19
try again if you fail but we want you to
01:43:22
go and we want you to try ruged
01:43:24
individualism and also and also the you
01:43:26
know the the kind of case that that that
01:43:29
was being made a little bit earlier
01:43:30
about China that that basically China is
01:43:33
saying that it can do things the one of
01:43:35
the things that that drives me up a wall
01:43:37
is when politicians say I created X jobs
01:43:39
or or we created X jobs you didn't
01:43:41
create a job okay the government does
01:43:43
not create jobs the government can take
01:43:45
money from people and then give it to
01:43:46
other people but it is only
01:43:48
entrepreneurs who can create jobs and so
01:43:50
the the way that you fight China off is
01:43:52
not by the power of a centralized
01:43:54
government directing people in a
01:43:55
particular direction the way that you
01:43:56
fight off China is by unleashing the
01:43:59
collective knowledge wisdom and ambition
01:44:01
of the American people on an individual
01:44:02
level to go out and do all of these
01:44:04
unbelievable things and that that would
01:44:06
be the promise that I'd make to the
01:44:07
American people is I'll get everybody
01:44:08
the hell out of your way so you can
01:44:09
succeed that that would be the only
01:44:10
thing I I promise guys we got um
01:44:12
breaking news here it turns out the T
01:44:15
more reciprocal tariffs have dropped
01:44:17
look at this complaining about the
01:44:19
docket jcal has put a 500% reciprocal to
01:44:23
on that tariff on that purchasing dogs
01:44:25
from a breeders is now 100% tariff
01:44:28
freedberg oh that's pretty that's pretty
01:44:30
stiff and chamath has put one on Laura
01:44:33
Piana slippers yeah too many people have
01:44:35
them 200% tariff and uh oh looks like
01:44:38
Ben shapira got in on it having Candace
01:44:40
Owens on your podcast is now at
01:44:43
200% Ben what are you doing here guys
01:44:46
unkind wait what's the Palmer lucky one
01:44:48
can you can you read that lucky has put
01:44:50
a thousand this is the biggest one that
01:44:52
just dropped th% tariff I'm working with
01:44:54
jcal
01:44:57
for chamath poopa chairman dictator wait
01:45:00
I have to do you want to hear about oh
01:45:02
would you like to do a little memory L
01:45:03
we got so much show here I'm trying to
01:45:04
get this out but okay by way I created a
01:45:06
a poly Market on
01:45:09
GDP oh annualized GDP growth in Q3 of
01:45:12
this year being below five negative five
01:45:14
per. negative five% yeah that's brutal
01:45:19
check it out on Market what's the
01:45:21
probability of that happening make your
01:45:22
bets oh make your Bets with our partner
01:45:25
poly
01:45:26
Market chamath do you want to do Victory
01:45:28
lab we're to wrap here what do you want
01:45:29
to do well I actually think it's fun
01:45:31
because we're going to kick off a
01:45:33
different poly market around this
01:45:34
because I think it's interesting so the
01:45:36
thing that we haven't talked about is
01:45:38
with all of the
01:45:40
tariffs with all of the
01:45:42
financing questions with all of the
01:45:45
recession questions shortterm rates
01:45:47
long-term rates the one thing that we
01:45:49
haven't sufficiently talked about it's
01:45:51
not really in the Press but needs to be
01:45:53
talked about is there is a tremendous
01:45:55
amount of corporate debt that supports
01:45:57
these businesses
01:45:59
today and you would say well if
01:46:02
long-term rates go
01:46:04
down there's no real risk but the Tariff
01:46:08
picture actually impacts revenues right
01:46:11
and the problem with that is that
01:46:13
there's a lot of companies that have
01:46:14
debt covenants tied to revenue and
01:46:18
iida and so this is what I spoke about
01:46:20
at the beginning of January which is
01:46:23
the one risk that is
01:46:26
uncontrollable is what happens to
01:46:29
corporate debt and could we see a wave
01:46:32
of defaults and a wave of action Nick
01:46:35
you may want to just play the clip and
01:46:36
we can talk about what we can do about
01:46:38
this this was my pick for the best
01:46:40
investment idea oh go all right here we
01:46:43
go from what do you got let me preface
01:46:45
this by saying that this is a pick that
01:46:49
92 times out of a 100 goes to absolute
01:46:52
zero and six out of the remaining eight
01:46:56
times you make 10 extra money and then
01:46:59
the final two times you make anywhere
01:47:01
between a 100 to a th extra money this
01:47:03
is a loser trade but I would be long
01:47:08
CDs so what am I buying I am buying
01:47:11
insurance I'm buying Insurance using
01:47:14
credit default swaps I'm buying what's
01:47:16
called protection that there is no
01:47:18
default event in 2025 I would like a
01:47:23
little bit of an insurance policy in
01:47:25
2025 so that the men and the women that
01:47:28
we have voted in have the chance to do
01:47:30
their work in peace I think that there
01:47:33
is a small chance of some volatility
01:47:36
next year I hope it doesn't happen I
01:47:38
hope that this trade loses money but if
01:47:41
it hits it will be the best performing
01:47:43
asset of 2025 and I just want to be
01:47:44
clear this is not something I think will
01:47:46
happen it's not something I want to
01:47:48
happen but I do think that if you look
01:47:50
back in terms of just the tonnage of
01:47:52
dollarars you can can make and the
01:47:53
massive risk asymmetry that it presents
01:47:55
to you when you look at the
01:47:56
concentration of the S&P when you look
01:47:58
at just the total gross amount of debt
01:48:00
that we have when you look at rate
01:48:02
spiking all of these things say having a
01:48:04
little Insurance may not be a bad thing
01:48:07
it has
01:48:08
hit Nick you can show the CDs
01:48:12
graph so this thing for every billion
01:48:14
dollars of risk you would have put on
01:48:16
every billion dollars that you put on
01:48:18
would have cost you about a million
01:48:20
dollar and that million dollars would
01:48:22
have made you about $7 million in about
01:48:24
three months did you put it on I'm not
01:48:26
going to comment on my my trades Jason
01:48:30
oh okay but weal we talked about it off
01:48:32
air already but if you did put it on
01:48:33
does that mean you're taking us all to
01:48:35
Italy this summer no what's happening
01:48:37
here are you getting a boat for us to
01:48:38
record from the Allin yacht no but there
01:48:41
may be some boats for sale if this trade
01:48:42
keeps going this way oh why is this
01:48:45
important the CDs actually represents
01:48:48
the structural risk in the United States
01:48:50
private economy in the corporate economy
01:48:52
so Nick if you just put it back on so
01:48:54
when you see these spreads blowing out
01:48:56
this is actually a very important
01:48:58
warning sign and this is actually a
01:49:00
thing that I think Scott understands
01:49:02
well Howard understands well I think
01:49:04
they'll translate this to the
01:49:07
president if I have an opportunity to
01:49:09
explain it I will but this is a really
01:49:11
important Market to pay attention to
01:49:13
this is what was the canary and the coal
01:49:16
mine for the great financial crisis this
01:49:20
was the stuff that showed us that there
01:49:21
was a big default event happening in the
01:49:24
mortgage side of the market but then
01:49:26
that spilled over to the broader economy
01:49:29
and so the Tariff picture and the
01:49:31
recession picture will get played out in
01:49:34
this chart and I think it's something
01:49:35
that folks can and should probably pay
01:49:38
tremendous attention to because I think
01:49:40
now that this trade is in the money the
01:49:43
question is I don't think we want this
01:49:44
to happen that one Sigma two Sigma event
01:49:48
where all of a sudden this trade returns
01:49:49
a
01:49:50
THX is really bad well you know let's
01:49:53
keep our eye on the markets and uh as of
01:49:56
the taping here we're down about 5%
01:49:58
across the boards and Ben you're
01:50:01
excellent you should come back yeah well
01:50:03
done Ben you fit right we're in we're in
01:50:05
Florida are you we're doing an event in
01:50:07
Miami at the end of the
01:50:09
month should yeah that'd be fun let's do
01:50:11
it you want to come to Miami and hang
01:50:12
out we've got like this nightclub we're
01:50:14
doing a stage we got the track side of
01:50:17
Formula One Ben's got a Ben's got a
01:50:19
table out 11 it's got his name on Ben
01:50:21
Shapiro
01:50:22
to live we're going to live stop okay
01:50:25
sorry sorry I don't know I don't know
01:50:26
which strip club is sponsoring all in
01:50:28
this trip but we'll figure it out that
01:50:30
was awesome Ben thanks for doing that
01:50:32
thanks guys that's a blast wa jcal take
01:50:34
us out take us out this is my favorite
01:50:36
with Ben Ben's like and you know there's
01:50:39
security issues in Ukraine and you have
01:50:42
security issues as well that's why you
01:50:43
should use Lifeline man you are the
01:50:45
master of the fcking segue I have never
01:50:48
I thought I was good ped chapiro was
01:50:50
like and of course we have the tariffs
01:50:52
and that's going down but you know what
01:50:54
won't go down if you buy gold buy your
01:50:56
gold bullion at goldb on.org you are
01:50:59
[ __ ] great at this is it true 100
01:51:02
million in revenue for daily wire is
01:51:04
that true n figures actually last year
01:51:07
was 2 220 oh my God 220 what's going on
01:51:10
I saw some headline you're going
01:51:11
bankrupt how you going bankrupt with 220
01:51:13
we're not going bankrupt yeah not going
01:51:15
some restructuring actually Ben now that
01:51:17
you saw what's happening with Newsmax I
01:51:19
mean any thoughts to maybe brazing some
01:51:22
capital
01:51:23
yeah I mean it has it has let's just put
01:51:25
it has crossed our minds yes for sure
01:51:28
you're making 50 times the revenue of
01:51:30
Truth social congratulations but
01:51:33
actually what do you think when you see
01:51:35
the this Newsmax thing trade like this I
01:51:37
mean it's incredible yeah what is it
01:51:39
saying do you think I mean I I think
01:51:40
it's saying a couple of things I mean
01:51:41
one it's saying obviously look I I think
01:51:43
the PE ratios on on the Newsmax trade
01:51:45
are are you know ridiculous in in the
01:51:48
sense that it's going to revert back to
01:51:49
something closer to normaly I think that
01:51:51
the it was supposed to trade at 10 bucks
01:51:53
and it came out at 14 it spoke to like
01:51:55
240 so it's more like GameStop than
01:51:57
anything else there a lot of retail
01:51:59
traders who are fans of Newsmax who
01:52:00
bought the stock and then it leapt and I
01:52:02
think it was today back down in the 40s
01:52:04
something like that it'll end up being
01:52:06
you know total market cap will probably
01:52:07
be somewhere when it when it lands in
01:52:09
like the two to three Bill range
01:52:11
somewhere three to four Bill something
01:52:13
like that um I I think what it says is
01:52:16
that you know the the stock market in in
01:52:18
the short term is a voting machine and
01:52:19
in the long term it is a weighing
01:52:20
machine and I think that uh you know
01:52:22
when when you when you look at at stocks
01:52:24
that have name brand recognition uh then
01:52:27
you're going to get a lot of voting in
01:52:28
the early going and then it's a question
01:52:29
of whether you can keep that up so it
01:52:30
turns into weighing right fair enough 39
01:52:33
million in uh quarterly Revenue so
01:52:35
they're at1 150 $160 million a year and
01:52:39
their valuation right now I don't have
01:52:42
the market cap here but what did it Peak
01:52:43
out at 304 billion or something oh no
01:52:46
when it when it peaked it Peak above 20
01:52:47
bill yeah the market cap went to 170
01:52:50
bucks or 200 bucks 240 bucks 245s
01:52:53
yesterday yeah or two days ago you know
01:52:56
G something weird going on there okay uh
01:52:59
all right well the Allin and um
01:53:01
dailywire merger and IPL coming soon the
01:53:04
ticker symbol is
01:53:07
all Deli in wire all in Deli in wire the
01:53:11
merger is complete and we'll see you all
01:53:13
next time love you all in well done
01:53:17
thanks
01:53:18
guys let your winners
01:53:20
ride Rainman
01:53:25
David and instead we open source it to
01:53:27
the fans and they've just gone crazy
01:53:29
with it love
01:53:32
[Music]
01:53:38
youen
01:53:40
besties that's my dog taking your
01:53:43
[Music]
01:53:45
driveway oh man myit meet me we should
01:53:49
all just get a room and just have one
01:53:51
big huge orgy cuz all this useless it's
01:53:53
like this like sexual tension that they
01:53:55
just need to release
01:53:56
[Music]
01:54:01
somehow we need to get
01:54:07
[Music]
01:54:11
mer going
01:54:14
[Music]
