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all right now we're going to move on to
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the 2025 biggest business loser
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predictions in 2024 shamat said pro
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sports teams because they hit Peak
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valuations that's looking like a pretty
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good prediction I would take the other
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side on pro sports teams it feels like
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that market is about to be
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institutionalized and funds are going to
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start buying pro sports teams okay that
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ultimately and ultimately Capital
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markets have way more resources than
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kind of the wealthy individuals who've
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done it for to date so I just think it's
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the amount of money that can go after
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pro sports teams is about to you know
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10x 100x no I think I think you're
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totally right the the reason I said that
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last year was it was pretty clear to me
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at the time and the NBA was the canary
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and the coal mine that there was a
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viewership problem in professional
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sports and specifically in the NBA the
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game has devolved into essentially
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rebounds and dunks or
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three-pointers and the issue with that
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is that it become just meaningfully less
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interesting to watch at the same time
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because of the the fact that the TV
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deals are really what determines the
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discounted value of these sports
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franchises the TV deal was so enormous
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that it creates
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no reliable rivalries anymore because
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people will Hopscotch teams almost every
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year because the compensation that they
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can get is just so obscene quite
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honestly and I think what happens is
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sports will have a decent run until the
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next TV deals get done and I think if
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you for example take PHA ads outside of
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TV so like that pool shrinks if you have
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less viewership and so you can sell the
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remaining ads less effectively because
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there's just fewer of them and then
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there's fewer buyers and it shrinks yet
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again then the dollar pool that the
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television networks and the streamers
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are going to be willing to pay for
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sports will go down
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and the group that will be the most
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price sensitive are exactly who you said
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Gavin meaning the non trophy buyer so
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like you know when I bought into the
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Warriors I bought it purely as a trophy
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asset and I was price insensitive but I
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agree with you that now that you have
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the PE firms on the cap tables of these
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sports franchises those folks are all
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DCFS those folks are all Excel models I
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don't think that they're buying things
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for emotion I don't think they've grown
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up thinking I want to own this thing not
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using institutional LP dollar
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so I just think that's why that's why I
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said that in 24 so I just on behalf of
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Phil houth and I we appreciate you made
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that vanity investment for the number of
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times we got to sit in your cour side
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seats yeah because I never went we made
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with NBA players I never went to the
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games I should have gone to more games I
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went to your games it almost got thrown
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out of your seats I got a red card one
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time it's true is it true you did oh you
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don't know that I got a I got a call I
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got a call I think it was from the
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Warriors or it's from the NBA something
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to the effect of chouth this guy that
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was sitting in your seats was almost
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kicked out and I said excuse me because
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I knew that it wasck Game In fairness
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and and he was like jawboning our own
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players I was getting into it with Bogan
00:03:10
and with David Lee because I told it was
00:03:13
unbelievable I told Steve Kerr listen
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you're up 30 on my Knicks sit these guys
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down this is Bush League what if Steph
00:03:19
Curry gets hurt out there like and uh
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you know Boga told me to shut up and
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Andre boett told him to basically go
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pound end in a basically did it was the
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funniest thing ever Gavin this is what
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happens when you get B's one of our
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friends he's one of our good friends so
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that's why it's so funny but they can't
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they come over freeberg and they tap you
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on the shoulder I'm with my wife she's
00:03:39
mortified and the guy hands you a card
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and the card says you've been uh warned
00:03:46
one time and one time only about abusive
00:03:49
you know uh Behavior if we have to warn
00:03:52
you one more time you will be escorted
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out ridic so I look at the guy and I say
00:03:55
but and he goes read the card I read the
00:03:58
card I say he goes gives me a thumbs up
00:04:01
that was it I never that it you're not
00:04:04
supposed to then three years later I'm
00:04:06
sitting in the same seats I'm
00:04:07
interacting with Draymond during the
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finals games and everybody's hokey doie
00:04:11
with it when you say interacting what do
00:04:13
you mean when you say interacting wait
00:04:14
hold on G Gavin wanted to make a point
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about what I just no I just want to just
00:04:17
just come back to chath because for sure
00:04:19
these private Equity guys there's DCFS
00:04:21
the NBA has been terribly managed I
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think you LeBron said they have a big
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problem you know and I'd separate the
00:04:28
NBA is the worst managed NFL is probably
00:04:30
the best managed but the one kind of
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CounterPoint I would say on the TV
00:04:33
rights is Google bought Sunday Ticket
00:04:36
and are extremely happy with
00:04:39
it Amazon and Netflix also bought you
00:04:43
know both bought NFL games and are
00:04:45
really happy with them and so I just
00:04:47
think those three companies it doesn't
00:04:49
really matter to them if Pharma ads go
00:04:51
away in 18 months you're going to be
00:04:54
able to dynamically create an ad for
00:04:56
each individual person and show it to
00:04:58
them and if a high value user with a you
00:05:01
know that Google knows that you're about
00:05:03
to book a vacation you know they'll
00:05:05
dynamically generate you know whatever
00:05:07
you know Hotel destinations you want and
00:05:09
show click here so I just think Sports
00:05:14
as long as they command the eyeballs
00:05:15
that they do and I for sure if the NBA
00:05:19
doesn't fix it the value of those
00:05:21
franchises will start to decline but um
00:05:24
just the fact that all of the biggest
00:05:27
tech companies are so happy with the
00:05:29
sport kind of rights that they bought
00:05:31
they're going to buy them all
00:05:35
every maybe maybe you're closer to this
00:05:37
but why wouldn't Apple Amazon or Google
00:05:40
just back up the truck to the NBA and
00:05:42
say well take the whole thing and then
00:05:44
anybody who's got an iPhone gets the NBA
00:05:46
for free and then everybody else has to
00:05:48
pay and they figure it out in the back
00:05:50
end they lose a you know five billion
00:05:52
they make two billion who cares it's a
00:05:54
rounding error for Apple I agree and
00:05:56
they you know I mean they all all except
00:05:59
for Apple really and apple they have I
00:06:01
think an MLs deal but they all kind of
00:06:03
stuck their toe in the water and I think
00:06:05
they feel like wow the water's warm
00:06:07
let's dive in um okay yeah and the New
00:06:11
Deal is an 11-year deal for the NBA so
00:06:13
these things don't come up that often
00:06:15
but we'll see over time maybe somebody
00:06:17
will buy one of these media companies
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and inherit them
