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so first off um please join me in
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welcoming Ray Doo to the stage wow
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yeah Ray
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Doo Oh my God
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legit
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got let your winners
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ride Rainman
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David and in said we open source it to
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the fans and they've just gone crazy
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love you queen of
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K
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R I don't know how we got you to the
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stage it must have been the fact that I
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just said your name 400 times last
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year this guy's R yeah but I will say
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you were by far my Top Choice as a guest
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to have at the all- in Summit 2023 which
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I took advantage of because I got to
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produce it this year you guys have heard
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me talk about Ray's book principles for
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dealing with the changing World Order
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why Nations succeed and fail on the Pod
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a lot and I think it really um
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encapsulates so well why we are
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observing a lot of the social economic
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and political shifts that are underway
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in the US and around the world today
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increasing civil unrest divisive
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politics our desire for external
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conflict inflation budget and debt
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problems Etc they've all played out
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before as Nations have risen and Fallen
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Jason likes to make fun of the term
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declinist but I think it's more uh
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broader than that which is what is the
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cycle that happens with social systems
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that we call nation states over time
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Ray's book was my content pick of the
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year in 2021 and I first learned about
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Ray when he published uh principles as a
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PDF in 2011 you put that out for free on
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the internet thank you which was an
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internal document you Ed at
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Bridgewater and I don't know if anyone
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else downloaded it and read it but I was
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a young CEO in 2011 I read that uh that
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PDF and it made a big impact on me and
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how I thought about management
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prioritization decision- making and
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myself um as a kid growing up in Nassau
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New York Nassau County New York Ray
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earned money mowing lawns shoveling snow
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um delivering newspapers and caddying
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for Wall Street tycoons he later got a
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summer job with a Wall Street Trader
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that he caddied for and ended up
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starting Bridgewater two years after he
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got his NBA at Harvard in
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1973 make sure I get that right by 2013
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Bridgewater was the largest hedge fund
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in the world today managing well over a
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hundred billion dollar in assets uh Ray
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spends much of his time sharing his
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analyses and thoughts today and his
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viewpoints openly and freely and for
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that we appreciate him and thank him and
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excited to welcome him here today so um
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Ray maybe you could just very briefly
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kind of summarize the um the cycle that
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you highlight in your book that I
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mentioned um and the five Great kind of
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drivers that you've observed and tell us
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a little bit about the the simple kind
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of macro picture I know you've got
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something you could share on it as well
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yeah sure uh first I should explain that
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experience I had of learning that many
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of the things that surprised me
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surprised me because they didn't happen
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in my lifetime time before but they
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happened many times in history the first
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time I was clerking on the floor of the
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New York Stock Exchange in
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1971 and the United States Nixon
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defaulted on the promise to deliver gold
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for money because they didn't have
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enough money a re real money gold and it
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went down I went on the floor of the New
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York Stock Exchange expecting a big down
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it went up a lot that's because I never
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had a devaluation happen that I found
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that in March 1933 the exact same thing
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happened with Roosevelt on the radio
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same thing so I then I studied the 30s
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what happened in
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1938 in terms of the depression leading
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to the wars and so on and the interest
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rates hitting zero is the exact same
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thing that happened in 2008 and was
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because I studied that that I we were
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able to make a lot of money in the 2008
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financial crisis so three things started
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to happen in my lifetime our lifetimes
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that never happened before and and I
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needed therefore to study the study them
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in history the first is the amount of
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debt and money creation huge amounts of
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debt and money creation does that matter
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how do what is the rise and decline of a
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reserve currency how does that all work
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I needed to see the cycles for that the
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second was the amount of internal
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political conflict in particular
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populism of the left and populism of the
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right and a populist is a person who
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will not accept losing they fight with
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their contingency and that dysfunction
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and that lack of willingness to lose um
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then had January 6th came out after the
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book and there's a dynamic that we're
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going on for that and the third of
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course is the great power conflict in
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other words the rise of a comparable
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economic and military power in the form
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of China Rising and competing with the
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United States which is also changing
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that world order those three things
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never happened in my lifetime but are
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big things that are affecting things
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when I went back in history I I said I
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needed to study how these things work
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sometimes we Overlook the really big
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things so I went back and I uh studied
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that and I saw that there were two
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others that had enormous impact the two
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others were um acts of nature in
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particular droughts floods and pandemics
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and they killed more people and they
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toppled more Empires and changed more
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World orders than anything and certainly
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big issue now and then number uh five is
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technological changes and how they
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evolve so I needed to study those five
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forces I um I saw that there's this
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cycle that repeats over for good cause
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effect relationships I don't believe in
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a cycle just because it repeats I
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started to understand the cause effect
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relationships I have a clip here if I
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can show you just the four minutes
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that's just a brief summary of the cycle
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uh can you hit it with the clip I
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studied the 10 most powerful Empires
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over the last 500 years and the last
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three reserved currencies it took me
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through the rise and decline of the
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Dutch Empire and the Gilder the British
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Empire and the pound the rise and early
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decline in the United States Empire and
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the dollar and The Decline and Rise of
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the Chinese Empire and its currencies as
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well as the rise and decline of the
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Spanish German French Indian Japanese
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Russian and ottoman Empires along with
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their significant
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conflicts as measured in this chart to
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understand China's patterns better I
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also studied the rise and fall of
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Chinese dynasties and their monies back
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to the year
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600 because looking at all these
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measures at once can be confusing I'll
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focus on the four most important ones
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the Dutch dut British us and
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Chinese you'll quickly notice the
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pattern now let's simplify the form a
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bit as you can see they transpired in
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overlapping cycles that lasted about 250
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years with 10 to 20e transition periods
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between them typically these transitions
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have been periods of great conflict
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because leading Powers don't decline
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without a fight so how am I measuring an
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Empire's
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power in this study I used eight metrics
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each country's measure of total power is
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derived by averaging them together they
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are education inventiveness and
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Technology development competitiveness
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in global markets economic output share
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of World Trade military strength the
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power of their financial center for
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Capital markets and the strength of
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their currency as a reserve currency
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because these powers are measurable we
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can see how strong each country is now
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was in the past and whether they're
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rising or
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declining by examining the sequences
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from many countries we can see how a
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typical cycle
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transpires and because the Wiggles can
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be confusing we can simplify it a bit to
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focus on the pattern of cause effect
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relationships that drive the rise and
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decline of a typical
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Empire as you can see better education
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typically leads to increased Innovation
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and Technology development and with a
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lag the establishment of the currency as
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a reserve currency you can also see that
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these forces then declined in a similar
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order reinforcing each other's
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decline let's now look at the typical
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sequence of events going going on inside
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a country that produces these Rises and
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declines in a nutshell the big cycle
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typically begins after a major conflict
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often a war establishes the new leading
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power and the New World Order because no
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one wants to challenge this power a
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period of peace and prosperity typically
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follows as people get used to this peace
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and prosperity they increasingly beted
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on it continuing they borrow money to do
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that which eventually leads to a
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financial bubble the Empire's share of
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trade grows and when most transactions
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are conducted in its currency it becomes
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a reserve currency which leads to even
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more Bor at the same time this increased
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Prosperity distributes wealth unevenly
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so the wealth Gap typically grows
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between the rich Haves and the poor Have
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Nots eventually the financial bu bursts
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which leads to the printing of
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money an increased internal conflict
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between the rich and the poor which
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leads to some form of Revolution to
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redistribute wealth this can happen
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peacefully or as a civil war while the
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Empire struggles with this internal
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conflict its power diminishes relative
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to external rival powers on the rise
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when a new Rising power gets strong
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enough to compete with the dominant
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power that is having domestic breakdowns
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external conflicts most typically Wars
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take place out of these internal and
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external Wars come new winners and
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losers then the winners get together to
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create the New World Order and the cycle
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begins
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again the book's amazing and the amount
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of work you put into this is
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extraordinary and it's just really great
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intellectually I'm curious when we look
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at those four groups since you wrote the
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book China I think we'd all agree has
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changed significantly uh perhaps I think
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best described maybe being in decline in
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many ways and disconnecting from the
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west and it's also I believe when you
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look at the countries you studied uh
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perhaps one of the only modern
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authoritarian countries to um you know
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perhaps have an ability to take the
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Crown if um they were to continue so
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two-park question what do you how does
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everything you've learned and studied
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impact your thinking when one person an
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authoritarian xiin ping is running China
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and disconnecting it from the rest of
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the world in terms of their ability um
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and then do you consider this if they
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did succeed in becoming the dominant
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power in the world what do you think
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that does for
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Humanity there are a bunch of questions
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in there so I I'll I I'll I'll try to
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remember them and take them uh one once
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at a time
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um I think China's going to be a big
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Power for the foreseeable future I think
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the basic picture in China uh the United
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States the emergence of India and so on
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is going the world order is going to
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change in a very profound way we can't
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say who's going to be the winner and the
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loser of this game but I think we do
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know that um this conflict is going to
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be with us and it's totally changing the
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world order when you're asking like
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who's going to be the winner of this
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game um like I I'll tell you
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history in the history of democracy as
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uh Plato described in the uh in the
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Republic there's a cycle and one of the
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great
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vulnerabilities of democracies is the
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disorderliness the Anarchy that comes
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from a conflict and and so you're asking
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me to compare democracy
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and um also what I'll call
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capitalism with uh
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authoritarianism and um let's say let's
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call it communism that version of it or
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or quasi capitalism maybe but we know
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what we mean yeah okay so
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um so when um the risk of of C of
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capitalism is when you have the wealth
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Gap CL
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clash and the opportunity Gap clash and
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the risk and that produces uh risk for
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democracy so in the 30s four major
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democracies because of that Dynamic
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chose to be their parliaments chose to
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be autocracies that happened in Germany
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Italy Spain and Japan so the risk both
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have risks
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I came from and I've been we've all been
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blessed with this amazing environment
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that equal opportunity the ability to be
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creative or rule of law
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civility but if we risk those things in
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both of those then we have a great risk
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so on this War I think it depends more
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on how we are with our circumstances to
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be strong and capable and relative to
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them it certainly is going to be a test
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of the
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systems yeah so in a
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way us focusing inward on what we do
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here in America with our democracy and
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making it high function is as important
00:14:46
as managing our relationship with China
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and if you were to look at China India
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and those two countries specifically um
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and you were to handicap them as you are
00:14:56
uniquely qualified to do maybe you could
00:14:57
just broadly handicap India versus China
00:15:00
for us because this is a topic we've
00:15:02
been talking about jamath and I and and
00:15:03
the other besties on the show a whole
00:15:05
bunch and it's now the largest
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population in the world I guess people
00:15:08
don't realize that that they've uh and
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they're continuing to grow and the birth
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rate is in decline in China so maybe a
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little bit on India and how you look at
00:15:16
it and I should emphasize that every
00:15:18
every conclusion that I have is a
00:15:20
function of of measuring statistics and
00:15:23
having them as leading indicators and we
00:15:25
have 10-year growth rate estimates for
00:15:28
uh China uh excuse me India and all the
00:15:31
countries top 22 countries and you could
00:15:33
see it online if you want country by
00:15:34
country and the reasons for it India has
00:15:36
the highest potential growth rate I
00:15:38
think
00:15:39
India um is where China was when I
00:15:43
started to go I started to go in 1984 so
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if you look at the complexion the per
00:15:48
capita income and I think um Modi is a
00:15:52
Deng shell ping so that you have a um a
00:15:59
ma massive uh reform development
00:16:04
creativity all those elements there are
00:16:07
of course issues risk issues uh but
00:16:10
India is is very uh very important now
00:16:13
of course there's is a religious
00:16:15
internal issue having to do with the
00:16:17
population has 240 million um Muslims
00:16:21
and I don't think that any of these
00:16:23
issues is going to stop India I also in
00:16:26
history the countries that were the
00:16:29
neutral countries did the best so in
00:16:32
other words better than the winners in
00:16:34
Wars so as we have this conflict between
00:16:38
the United States and China and its
00:16:40
allies Russia and so on as we see that
00:16:43
line up countries that are in the middle
00:16:46
like India are going to be net
00:16:49
beneficiaries Middle East yeah Middle
00:16:51
East is again there's so there are two
00:16:53
big epicenters where things are
00:16:55
happening fast and quick um and getting
00:16:58
better one of them is um well let let's
00:17:01
say three there's the acon countries and
00:17:05
we can say that Singapore and
00:17:07
essentially is a hub but the acon
00:17:09
countries which is you know Indonesia
00:17:12
Philippines Vietnam and all of that
00:17:14
that's going to be a good great area the
00:17:16
Middle East in terms of particularly the
00:17:19
gulf countries the amount of money and
00:17:21
they're and they're making Talent
00:17:22
magnets they're attracting people that's
00:17:25
you look at how the change in wealth has
00:17:27
take place um that's certainly it and
00:17:30
India Ray can we can I just ask back on
00:17:33
China you know Chinese leadership you've
00:17:37
spoken and had relations there for many
00:17:39
years can you share with us your point
00:17:41
of view on how they think about their
00:17:43
position in the world and how you
00:17:46
understand their intentions yes I'll
00:17:48
give you I give you my thoughts I'm not
00:17:50
making judgments I'm just passing along
00:17:53
okay
00:17:54
um they they think there are two
00:17:57
different systems two different
00:17:58
approaches they would think that an
00:18:00
autocratic and a uh an autocratic system
00:18:05
they used to have a committee that would
00:18:07
make it but they would say it would be
00:18:08
very much like a company if you had a
00:18:10
company you have a board you have the
00:18:12
executive committee and so on and so
00:18:15
forth and you make make sure you get the
00:18:16
leadership and then they would say U
00:18:19
that the world should have a competition
00:18:21
and that uh throughout history there are
00:18:23
these competitions in all the various
00:18:25
ways we talk about and there's an
00:18:27
emergence of that
00:18:28
and that there's an
00:18:30
inevitability and I think we say that
00:18:33
there's an inevitability for a um a a
00:18:37
conf uh conflict because there's a
00:18:40
containment and then there's a desire to
00:18:42
expand and it's like almost keeping a a
00:18:45
lid on a Boiling Pot that's the type of
00:18:48
situation I can go on at length about
00:18:50
the particulars of their thing there
00:18:52
they have a very good historical
00:18:54
perspective because their history's been
00:18:56
literally 5,000 years like we we think
00:18:58
of ours they remember the particulars
00:19:01
and all the leaders study that and there
00:19:03
is a cycle that they're very conscious
00:19:05
about so for example the big risk that
00:19:08
they believe is instability so she says
00:19:13
um that the big
00:19:16
um the big storm on the horizon he keeps
00:19:20
referring to the big storm on the
00:19:22
horizon and that relates to the conflict
00:19:26
with in the world that we're talking
00:19:28
about
00:19:28
but it also relates to the fact that
00:19:30
they've got a debt problem they have a
00:19:32
debt restructuring problem and their
00:19:34
Instinct through history The Learning of
00:19:36
history is that during such periods of
00:19:39
time internal conflict is a big threat
00:19:42
and therefore
00:19:44
autocracy strong controls are the things
00:19:47
to have okay now we can explore the
00:19:50
relative merits of that internal
00:19:52
conflict and so on but that's basically
00:19:54
their
00:19:55
perspective one of the um things that
00:19:58
I'm struck by is if you look in the
00:20:00
past a lot of these conflicts were
00:20:04
started because it's about Commerce or
00:20:08
some form of capital or some critical
00:20:11
resource and then it just kind of like
00:20:13
escalates and then you have these like
00:20:15
large R Transformations and
00:20:16
reallocations of
00:20:17
power but in a world where we are now
00:20:21
sort of almost on the precipice closer
00:20:23
than we've ever been to this sort of
00:20:24
form of abundance whether it's quasi
00:20:28
less energy whether it's food that's
00:20:30
available to be printed or made or what
00:20:32
have
00:20:34
you what do we fight over in this next
00:20:37
great conflict like what is worth
00:20:39
fighting over um okay so let let me
00:20:42
first deal with the productivity thing
00:20:46
throughout history productivity has been
00:20:48
the greatest and so if you take the 20s
00:20:51
we had the productivity most inventions
00:20:53
most patents and so on in the 20s you
00:20:55
also had a debt problem and you also had
00:20:57
a wealth Gap problem um so um I believe
00:21:02
that in terms of the new technology
00:21:04
we're going to really see new
00:21:05
technologies now they could be used for
00:21:08
weapons or they can be used for
00:21:09
productivity but we're going to have to
00:21:11
have a reorganization of how will we
00:21:14
going to redistribute the wealth and
00:21:17
opportunities and so on so if we come
00:21:19
back I think we just have to look at
00:21:20
what are we fighting for now what's
00:21:22
going on and I think that um of course
00:21:26
there's a fight over money if you have a
00:21:29
downturn if you have a debt problem and
00:21:31
I think there's good reason to believe
00:21:33
we will we we can get into that in a
00:21:35
minute but um they fight over money and
00:21:38
they fight over differences in values in
00:21:41
other words the differences in values
00:21:42
like um how do you educate your children
00:21:45
what is um transgender issues and
00:21:49
education issues and those types of
00:21:51
things and so I think you're seeing
00:21:53
those things to fight over you're seeing
00:21:55
plenty to fight over and let's say we
00:21:57
don't fight let's pray we don't fight
00:21:59
let's what we need is to come together
00:22:02
but um if let's say we don't fight
00:22:04
you're still going to have to deal with
00:22:06
how do you redistribute not only money
00:22:08
but how do you redistribute
00:22:09
opportunities and that's going to take
00:22:11
figuring it out right and there's going
00:22:13
to be an argument over how they how they
00:22:15
do that no I think this is really
00:22:17
interesting because I think you're
00:22:18
saying if you don't fight over the
00:22:21
historic area battlefields right if
00:22:23
we're not fighting over resources we are
00:22:25
going to fight over social issues or
00:22:28
social constructs or social beliefs so I
00:22:30
I I but but I'm also saying you're going
00:22:32
to fight over resources
00:22:34
like we have
00:22:36
debt and it and we operate as though it
00:22:40
doesn't matter and we'll continue to
00:22:42
have the pile if you look at history and
00:22:44
we can get into why it is it is not that
00:22:47
that goes on a while and you can't
00:22:49
continue to increase your living
00:22:50
standards by borrowing more than your uh
00:22:54
spending you know you can't keep
00:22:56
accumulating your debt because it has to
00:22:58
matter so these types of things as they
00:23:01
build up as the debt builds up as the
00:23:03
wealth gaps builds up and we are the
00:23:06
values gaps build up and then there's
00:23:08
difference in reaction to controls some
00:23:10
people so you see the movement we will
00:23:12
have things to fight over at the same
00:23:15
time as we hopefully will have a
00:23:18
productivity miracle I think that in the
00:23:20
next 5
00:23:21
years let I think year by year we're
00:23:25
going to go through a Time Warp you're
00:23:27
going to see
00:23:28
radical disorder in the next 5 years as
00:23:32
each one of those things comes to path
00:23:35
first with the elections as we have then
00:23:37
we have the conflict with the
00:23:39
geopolitical conflict then we have um
00:23:42
the climate issue which by the way is a
00:23:45
very expensive issue we should talk
00:23:47
about how how costly that issue is and
00:23:49
then we're going to have um this issue
00:23:52
of technology which can provide the
00:23:54
greatest Miracle but also is a is is a
00:23:57
weapon just frame for us your thoughts
00:23:59
on debt for a second how do you think
00:24:01
about debt as an absolute construct or a
00:24:03
relative construct especially sovereign
00:24:06
debt you know the there is a US debt but
00:24:09
then there are also every other 182
00:24:11
countries who have a ton of debt and so
00:24:13
how do you think about debt debt to GDP
00:24:16
relatively and in absolute terms for any
00:24:19
country and quite
00:24:20
often many countries because they go
00:24:23
through the cycle together as they did
00:24:25
in the
00:24:26
30s um what happens is debt rise is
00:24:29
relative to incomes and what that means
00:24:33
mechanistically is that Debt Service
00:24:36
payments rise relative to incomes and um
00:24:41
and so it squeezes out consumption as
00:24:44
this compounds and what happens is
00:24:47
there's a realization that they have to
00:24:49
print money so I think you're going to
00:24:51
see in the next downturn another move to
00:24:55
print money there are certain things
00:24:57
that are going on now that means that
00:24:59
the big risk comes when they don't want
00:25:02
to hold those bonds anymore okay because
00:25:05
the supply demand think about that
00:25:06
Supply
00:25:08
demand has a deficit it has to borrow
00:25:11
and so it sells its bonds who are the
00:25:14
buyers of the bonds why do they buy the
00:25:17
buyers of the bonds buy because there's
00:25:19
an attractive return not only do you
00:25:22
have to sell those amounts of bonds but
00:25:24
when they start to realize that I'm not
00:25:27
getting good Returns on those bonds they
00:25:29
can sell those bonds they're are
00:25:32
31 trillion dollar of bond they own
00:25:35
instead um they always own um uh uh
00:25:39
tangible things and those things can
00:25:41
also be it could be
00:25:43
equities it could be other many other
00:25:46
things it could be gold okay gold has
00:25:49
always been um accepted as a money
00:25:52
because it's nobody else is there's a
00:25:55
saying gold is the only asset you can
00:25:56
have that not somebody else's liability
00:25:58
in other words you're dependent on
00:26:00
getting paid you can have that at
00:26:02
intrinsic value and for a long period of
00:26:04
time it's been valued and you can move
00:26:05
it between countries but also um
00:26:08
different countries Prosper so you'll
00:26:10
see the countries some of the countries
00:26:12
that we mentioned they will prosper
00:26:14
through that the United States made most
00:26:17
of its money because it didn't enter the
00:26:19
war it was before on World War 2 in
00:26:21
World War I the United States became the
00:26:24
richest country because of the money it
00:26:26
made before it entered the war so those
00:26:29
countries will prosper and in those
00:26:31
countries then certain real estate of
00:26:34
prop hard assets but where you have that
00:26:36
is very very
00:26:38
important there's um something about
00:26:40
wealth inequality that I just wanted to
00:26:42
get your thoughts on as well which is I
00:26:45
saw a chart in The Economist recently
00:26:47
that showed um on a you know purchasing
00:26:50
price parody basis um normalized across
00:26:53
all the Western countries that us median
00:26:56
income so median so not thinking about
00:26:58
means um is now 45 almost $447,000 doing
00:27:04
much better than Britain most of
00:27:05
Continental Europe etc etc so on a
00:27:08
functional purchasing power parody
00:27:11
basis a lot of Americans are doing much
00:27:13
much better there was like a ups
00:27:15
renegotiation for their labor contracts
00:27:17
drivers can now make 180 Grand a year I
00:27:20
mean just there's a lot of money to be
00:27:22
made but then there's
00:27:25
this real but also Al hyper perceived
00:27:30
imbalance and I just want to get your
00:27:31
sense of how much of this is the social
00:27:34
media phenomenon of just never having
00:27:37
enough and how much of it is true when
00:27:39
you look at data like that uh the
00:27:43
there's a there's there's a huge um
00:27:47
wealth Gap um and the nature of our our
00:27:50
economy is producing this so I can
00:27:52
rattle up a bunch of Statistics what
00:27:54
happened um as happens in with these
00:27:58
Cycles is that when you have uh the type
00:28:01
of situation we have the government will
00:28:03
take on the debt and it'll send out the
00:28:05
money so the mechanics of that were that
00:28:09
there was more checks and more money
00:28:12
sent than there was uh loss of income by
00:28:15
a lot so a lot of money went out and as
00:28:19
a result of that the financial
00:28:21
conditions of the household sector
00:28:24
improved generally speaking while the
00:28:27
fincial conditions of the government
00:28:29
sector uh the the government got into a
00:28:31
lot more debt that's very classic at the
00:28:34
end of the cycle because there's a an
00:28:37
imbalance between demand and purchases
00:28:39
of bonds there is the Central Bank
00:28:42
buying those bonds that monetization
00:28:45
okay so now that's what the wealth Gap
00:28:47
looks like and also that also creates
00:28:50
more of the inflation right because the
00:28:52
household sector buying large benefits
00:28:55
but when you look at the the the
00:28:57
difference is um I can I'll tell you a
00:28:59
personal case uh so that I can
00:29:02
understand I live in Connecticut and um
00:29:05
Connecticut's usually one two or three
00:29:07
in the richest states in the country 22%
00:29:10
of the high school students in
00:29:12
Connecticut either have dropped out of
00:29:14
high school or are failing classes with
00:29:18
absentee rates are greater than
00:29:20
25% the $600 million a year goes to um
00:29:26
incarcerations
00:29:27
there is a um a a level below which no
00:29:31
human beings should be allowed to let
00:29:33
alone raising kids and families um I I
00:29:37
live in Greenwich Connecticut a wealthy
00:29:40
place I think um my number won't be up
00:29:43
to date maybe 5 years old per capita um
00:29:46
students in high school cost would be uh
00:29:49
24,000 a person in Bridgeport
00:29:52
Connecticut up the road $114,000 a
00:29:55
person there was 60 ,000 kids in
00:29:59
Connecticut that didn't have computers
00:30:01
how were they going to get education the
00:30:03
state wasn't going to pay for it we had
00:30:06
we philanthropically bought them if
00:30:09
there so now we don't create a bottom an
00:30:12
acceptable bottom and the idea of equal
00:30:15
opportunity I mean I I was blessed with
00:30:17
it I think we probably all were blessed
00:30:19
with equal opportunity all you need is
00:30:22
parents will take care of you go to a
00:30:24
public school come out to a world of
00:30:26
equal opport unity and leared civility
00:30:29
if you have those things so if you take
00:30:31
all those measures and so on the gaps in
00:30:34
those things are greater than they have
00:30:35
ever been right SE let me ask um so Ray
00:30:39
I think I fundly agree with your
00:30:41
critique that America is looking more
00:30:43
and more like a late stage Empire like a
00:30:46
late stage Roman Empire we have this
00:30:48
massive dead and we're debasing our
00:30:50
currency like the Roman Empire we have
00:30:53
all these you know far-flung uh military
00:30:56
Wars which we lose you know all over the
00:30:59
world uh were're racked by internal
00:31:01
division so I think I agree with with
00:31:03
that part of it at the same time we do
00:31:06
seem to be really good still at
00:31:08
technological innovation you know in the
00:31:10
last year we've had this breakthrough
00:31:11
with you know AI with large language
00:31:13
models I'm wondering is that well first
00:31:16
of all is is that a mirage or do you
00:31:18
agree with that and then if you do agree
00:31:19
that we're still really good at
00:31:21
technology is there anything in the
00:31:23
historical pattern that's like that
00:31:25
where you have a you know an Empire
00:31:27
that's declining in every visible way
00:31:30
except for the one that really underg
00:31:32
guards our power which is technology
00:31:34
well the late 20s in the United States
00:31:37
was such a good classic example we had
00:31:40
more Innovations more techn you know all
00:31:42
of these Cycles if I was to go back to
00:31:44
the Industrial Revolution late um 1800s
00:31:49
and then you turn then you create a that
00:31:51
when there's a lot of debt and a big
00:31:53
wealth Gap you had the 1907 you have the
00:31:56
panic panic of of 1907 boom you have the
00:31:59
Civil this uh you have this internal
00:32:02
conflict and you had the first world war
00:32:04
in the 20s you had the same kind of late
00:32:07
20s it was an era of great inventiveness
00:32:10
the other things
00:32:11
matter so just because we're really
00:32:13
great at Innovation isn't going to save
00:32:15
us if all these other things are broken
00:32:17
it's a wonderful thing but ultimately
00:32:20
our we as a
00:32:22
society in aggregate are spending a lot
00:32:26
more money then we're
00:32:28
earning so if if we're doing such a good
00:32:32
job on that technology whatever it why
00:32:35
is that happening okay we're still so
00:32:38
now when you look at the debt do you
00:32:40
want to own the debt do you want to own
00:32:43
that when those who don't want to own it
00:32:45
then you have a financial
00:32:47
problem when you have a financial
00:32:49
problem at the same time as you have a
00:32:51
wealth Gap and populism that's a
00:32:54
dangerous combination at the same time
00:32:56
as you have an external so it's a very
00:32:58
risky you know I'm with you
00:33:01
but what me follow up there so you
00:33:05
mentioned populism um I mean I think I
00:33:07
have a slightly different definition I
00:33:08
don't want to debate semantics with you
00:33:09
I think populism is a reaction to the
00:33:11
failure of elite so all the people
00:33:13
managing our fiscal situation and our
00:33:16
foreign policy who've gotten us into all
00:33:18
these inary conflicts who've debased our
00:33:20
currency I see populism as people rising
00:33:23
up to reject their leadership now it's a
00:33:26
bad thing
00:33:27
yes that that they're not willing to
00:33:28
accept the results I agree with your
00:33:30
definition I agree with your definition
00:33:32
and then also at the same time that
00:33:35
that's
00:33:36
happening
00:33:38
um they'll win at all cost they'll they
00:33:41
won't compromise they will win they will
00:33:43
fight for that side and win okay fair
00:33:46
enough and that's not good but I mean I
00:33:48
guess my question is why don't you have
00:33:49
more criticism for our Elites who are
00:33:52
running all these institutions who are
00:33:53
making these decisions I do I I mean it
00:33:56
depends what your
00:33:59
I I I I I wrote a piece about four four
00:34:02
years ago which says why and how
00:34:04
capitalism needs to be
00:34:06
reformed and I believe that on these
00:34:10
issues of equal opportunity and that
00:34:12
we've got a big structural problem and
00:34:15
that um everything needs to be reformed
00:34:17
I'm not against capitalism but it needs
00:34:19
to be reformed and part of the big
00:34:21
problem just analytically mechanically
00:34:24
is that um it's it's The Profit system
00:34:28
alone does not direct resources
00:34:32
adequately let's say if we take climate
00:34:35
for example um there was costs terrible
00:34:39
costs that come from climate it's not
00:34:41
built into the system education look at
00:34:45
the gaps in education this the
00:34:47
structural system means that the central
00:34:50
government uh the state government
00:34:52
controls education then you get to the
00:34:54
town and at the Town level it's the town
00:34:57
that controls the education how much
00:34:59
they pay and so then you create wealth
00:35:01
gaps with rich people being able to take
00:35:04
care of their kids in a way that other
00:35:06
people can't take care of their kids and
00:35:08
that creates an opportunity Gap that's a
00:35:10
structural problem it has to be taken on
00:35:13
full looked at reformed and we in order
00:35:17
to pull this thing off we have to do it
00:35:20
together okay we cannot do it with one
00:35:23
side fighting the other side and and
00:35:25
with irreconcilable differ Ray um before
00:35:28
we run out of time I amazingly well said
00:35:31
um and what an amazing conversation if
00:35:33
we were to get prescriptive here in the
00:35:35
last uh couple of minutes we have if
00:35:38
America wants to uh continue to be the
00:35:41
leader uh or you know at least in a lead
00:35:43
position here in the Free World um what
00:35:46
should we focus on what would you say of
00:35:48
the top three things let me let me add
00:35:50
one question to that and it connects
00:35:52
these two is there a political solution
00:35:55
in the US to avoid the end of Empire or
00:36:01
is it a function of physics and I think
00:36:02
this is a big part of like Sax's point
00:36:04
of view that there's a solution we need
00:36:06
to change these people or are there too
00:36:08
many call it conflating forces social
00:36:11
forces economic forces that all kind of
00:36:13
Rise and Fall together that and it
00:36:15
becomes an inevitability that there's a
00:36:17
cycling
00:36:19
um there are pre-existing conditions
00:36:23
that represent challenges so for example
00:36:26
the amount of debt that we're in
00:36:28
represents a you can't pretend it it
00:36:32
exists so it represents a challenge
00:36:35
there are a lot of these challenges but
00:36:38
it is not inevitable what is needed is
00:36:42
first of all a strong middle okay to
00:36:45
bring the country together in terms of
00:36:47
rather than to have this fighting
00:36:49
because if if we continue the way we
00:36:51
will we're going to have a conflict and
00:36:54
then there needs to be a good
00:36:55
engineering EXP exercise that's going to
00:36:57
produce but has to be bipartisan has to
00:37:00
be bipartisan with that strong middle
00:37:03
taking control of the ex extremes
00:37:06
because neither side's going to win a
00:37:09
great Reformation so and that
00:37:11
Reformation has I think should take the
00:37:14
form of like if if I was President of
00:37:16
the United States what I would do is I'd
00:37:17
have bipartisan cabinet I'm not I'm not
00:37:21
running for president but
00:37:24
but but a b an cabinet bipartisan
00:37:29
cabinet and uh and then have an
00:37:32
engineering exercise much like the
00:37:34
Manhattan Project in which those
00:37:37
bipartisan people get together and
00:37:40
properly
00:37:42
engineer important changes that need to
00:37:44
be made they have to be structural we
00:37:47
will not agree with each other ever
00:37:49
we're going to kill each other fighting
00:37:51
over these things so structural changes
00:37:54
have to be made and you need to have
00:37:57
the country as a whole do those things
00:37:58
do you guys think that's naive or is it
00:38:01
feasible I I think that the way politics
00:38:04
works is that you don't somehow come
00:38:07
together in the middle I think one side
00:38:08
has to win in the eyes of Voters voters
00:38:11
have to choose a path and um and so and
00:38:15
that's I'm with you that's what's going
00:38:16
to happen
00:38:18
and we've had we're going to have an
00:38:20
interesting two years between where we
00:38:23
are now yeah and let's say almost three
00:38:27
years and let's say Early N uh
00:38:32
2025 okay and and not just interesting
00:38:35
because we're going to have unbelievable
00:38:37
elections and we'll see whether how
00:38:39
power how we can come together we're
00:38:41
going to have an interesting on how
00:38:44
China us relations are we're going to
00:38:46
have an interesting Financial conflict
00:38:49
and we're going to have radical
00:38:51
technology changes plus climate's going
00:38:53
to be an issue so Ray you've um Mr Doo
00:38:58
you've
00:38:59
accomplished uh more than anybody could
00:39:02
ever expect in life uh financially with
00:39:04
your company uh and intellectually
00:39:08
obviously you've given this a tremendous
00:39:10
amount of thought and you said you're
00:39:12
not running for president I wonder
00:39:15
there's not much time left you should
00:39:18
maybe consider running for
00:39:20
president and why not do it why not why
00:39:24
what's the argument to be so so
00:39:26
successful so rich so intellectually
00:39:29
curious and not do what the country
00:39:32
needs you to do is get in the arena we
00:39:36
need you Mr doio get in the arena who
00:39:40
wants him in the
00:39:42
arena let's
00:39:44
go thank you this this is the same
00:39:47
speech has very
00:39:49
compl a very nice nice and generous
00:39:52
compliment thank you very much why
00:39:54
seriously on a personal level take me
00:39:56
through it well
00:39:58
okay Mario uh I would give up my life
00:40:02
for the country okay okay but um Mario
00:40:07
dragi in Italy if you know the
00:40:09
story um he knows the system and how it
00:40:13
works and that if you don't have
00:40:16
United and and operating in that way um
00:40:21
everybody's going to be torn apart and
00:40:23
so I think whatever thoughts have if
00:40:26
these are helpful thoughts I I think my
00:40:29
best role is to pass along whatever
00:40:31
helpful thoughts I have and then the
00:40:33
population as a whole deals with those
00:40:36
thoughts so I'm making my best
00:40:38
contribution that I can I feel that's my
00:40:41
best capacity and then it's up to the
00:40:44
people you're so vibrant people please
00:40:46
join me in thanking Rio for his
00:40:48
contribution amazing give it
00:40:51
up that was incredible thank you Mr Inc
00:40:56
wow look at this standing out first one
00:41:00
first standing
00:41:03
[Music]
00:41:07
of Rainman
00:41:12
David and instead we open sources it to
00:41:14
the fans and they've just gone crazy
00:41:16
with it love queen
00:41:24
of best
00:41:27
are that's my dog taking
00:41:32
driveway oh man my will meet me we
00:41:36
should all just get a room and just have
00:41:38
one big huge orgy cuz they're all this
00:41:39
useless it's like this like sexual
00:41:41
tension that they just need to
00:41:48
release we need to get
00:41:52
[Music]
00:41:55
mer
00:41:59
I'm going all
00:42:01
[Music]
00:42:02
in
